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Messages - Juan C. García

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 23, 2019, 05:51:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 22nd, 2019:
     5,877,913 km2, a century increase of 120,328 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of more than 1/2 million km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 22, 2019, 06:05:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 21st, 2019:
     5,757,585 km2, a century increase of 131,820 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

3
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 22, 2019, 03:18:21 AM »
Wow. This thread is really depressing. Maybe it should be retitled to people doubling down on climate change. Many of these locations should be evacuated, rather than cool the outdoors and truck in water for toilets.

Completely right! It is the whole world that it is becoming less livable, not just "some places".
In several articles you can have this conclusion, like we have it in the last one (Oakland Athletics) of the Washington Post:

Quote
Economists warn that climate change will have a major financial impact around the globe, and one working paper published last month stated that the United States could lose up to 10.5 percent of its gross domestic product by 2100 if emissions of greenhouse gases are not significantly cut. The economic impact similarly will be felt across the sports universe, one that could measure in the billions of dollars.

There has been no formal study done, but Allen Hershkowitz, an environment scientist who helped found Sport and Sustainability International, notes that teams and leagues will have to account for the physical impact on the venues but also losses from the disruption of business. Some locations will be prone to flooding, some to drought and still others to extreme heat, he says, and many will have to make serious adjustments in the years to come.

4
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 22, 2019, 12:06:49 AM »
As waters rise, so do concerns for sports teams along coast
Quote
One franchise’s challenge: Amid rising sea levels, build a stadium to last 100 years.

OAKLAND, Calif. — The infield is made of asphalt right now. So are the dugouts, the outfield and the stands. Someday this might be home to a baseball stadium, but today Howard Terminal is little more than a parking lot for 16-wheelers, populated by far more sea gulls than baseball fans.
...
Dave Kaval, the Oakland Athletics’ team president, walks from the gigantic cranes on the water’s edge to what soon might be the site of home plate…
...
The team is determined to build on the water, which on the surface might seem ill-advised...

How do you maintain operations in areas vulnerable to climate change? How do you sustain facilities and retain fans? How do you make it all economically viable when threats such as sea level rise are inevitable?

The Athletics’ ambitious stadium proposal highlights many of the problems posed by rising sea levels and some of the creative solutions teams and leagues might consider to address them. In targeting a site that the city of Oakland says sits six feet above sea level, Kaval said the team had no choice but to acknowledge the potential impacts of climate change.

Coastal cities across the country face a variety of threats, but no area is as vulnerable as South Florida, which is expected to see more storms, rising sea levels, increased flooding and storm surges. While that puts communities around Florida in serious jeopardy, it’s also a major threat to a bustling sports economy.

While most scientists agree that sea levels are rising, many climatologists — with a better understanding of how quickly ice sheets are melting in Greenland and Antarctica — now think earlier projections might have been too conservative.

“I always feel like I’m the doctor who’s giving bad news to a patient,” said Marco Tedesco, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “But we are starting to understand the reasons and the processes more, and there is a much larger consensus that many of the previous estimates were underestimated.”

Because of the evolving science and uncertainty looming down the road, the scientists behind the report said they could not rule out sea rise hitting two meters — more than 6½ feet — by the end of the century. Some of those immersed in the field say they’re fearful of something much more pronounced, perhaps even 10 feet or more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/10/16/waters-rise-so-do-concerns-sports-teams-along-coast/?arc404=true

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 21, 2019, 06:01:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 20th, 2019:
     5,625,765 km2, a century increase of 125,228 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of more than 1/2 million km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2018 (2nd lowest).

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 20, 2019, 05:48:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 19th, 2019:
     5,500,537 km2, a century increase of 134,038 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. Important difference of 491K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).

7
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 19, 2019, 07:56:22 PM »
Surely both. Like several stories of climate change, it is a story of climate crisis and also a story of corruption. In this case, of FIFA corruption.

I didn't include other comments that the article has, that are important (it is a large article). I include them now. I think that Qatar is like Miami. Using fossil fuel energy to cool external places or using fossil fuel energy to pump sea wáter to avoid floodings. Just increasing the problem, when they try to control it.
Quote
To survive the summer heat, Qatar not only air-conditions its soccer stadiums, but also the outdoors — in markets, along sidewalks, even at outdoor malls so people can window shop with a cool breeze.

Yet outdoor air conditioning is part of a vicious cycle. Carbon emissions create global warming, which creates the desire for air conditioning, which creates the need for burning fuels that emit more carbon dioxide. In Qatar, total cooling capacity is expected to nearly double from 2016 to 2030, according to the International District Cooling & Heating Conference.

“I would say it’s wasteful,” Adi Baziac said. “I know how it impacts the environment negatively.”
But it allows them to enjoy the outdoors in the summer, she added. “We can sit outside in an air-conditioned, controlled area, and we sit and mix and mingle.”

So far, Ghani said, the design still needs work. The solar panels don’t provide enough power to run the cooling system. The plants are scraggly. And, worst of all, a stiff hot breeze is blowing through, rendering the cooling system ineffective. “Wind is your biggest enemy,” he said.
Edit: IMHO, it is also Qatar's human rights violation (seems slavery on the XXI Century):
Quote
The danger is acute in Qatar because of the Persian Gulf humidity. The human body cools off when its sweat evaporates. But when humidity is very high, evaporation slows or stops. “If it’s hot and humid and the relative humidity is close to 100 percent, you can die from the heat you produce yourself,” said Jos Lelieveld, an atmospheric chemist at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany who is an expert on Middle East climate.

That became abundantly clear in late September, as Doha hosted the 2019 World Athletics Championships. It moved the start time for the women’s marathon to midnight Sept. 28. Water stations handed out sponges dipped in ice-cold water. First-aid responders outnumbered the contestants. But temperatures hovered around 90 degrees Fahrenheit and 28 of the 68 starters failed to finish, some taken off in wheelchairs.

Workers are particularly at risk. A German television report alleged hundreds of deaths among foreign workers in Qatar in recent years, prompting new limits on outdoor work. A July article in the journal Cardiology said that 200 of 571 fatal cardiac problems among Nepalese migrants working there were caused by “severe heat stress” and could have been avoided.

8
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 19, 2019, 01:49:42 PM »
Facing unbearable heat, Qatar has begun to air-condition the outdoors
Quote
DOHA, Qatar — It was 116 degrees Fahrenheit in the shade outside the new Al Janoub soccer stadium, and the air felt to air-conditioning expert Saud Ghani as if God had pointed “a giant hair dryer” at Qatar.

Yet inside the open-air stadium, a cool breeze was blowing. Beneath each of the 40,000 seats, small grates adorned with Arabic-style patterns were pushing out cool air at ankle level. And since cool air sinks, waves of it rolled gently down to the grassy playing field. Vents the size of soccer balls fed more cold air onto the field.

Qatar, the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas, may be able to cool its stadiums, but it cannot cool the entire country. Fears that the hundreds of thousands of soccer fans might wilt or even die while shuttling between stadiums and metros and hotels in the unforgiving summer heat prompted the decision to delay the World Cup by five months. It is now scheduled for November, during Qatar's milder winter.

The change in the World Cup date is a symptom of a larger problem — climate change.

Already one of the hottest places on Earth, Qatar has seen average temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times, the current international goal for limiting the damage of global warming.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/climate-environment/climate-change-qatar-air-conditioning-outdoors/?wpisrc=al_special_report__alert-hse--alert-national&wpmk=1

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2019, 05:48:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 18th, 2019:
     5,366,499 km2, a century increase of  130,961 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. Important difference of 424K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2019, 05:56:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 17th, 2019:
     5,235,538 km2, a century increase of 113,886 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. Important difference of 405K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2019, 05:52:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 16th, 2019:
     5,121,652 km2, an increase of 86,700 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. 2007 had only four days keeping the lowest record: October 16th to 19th.
Today, 2019 made a new record with an outstanding difference of 432K km2.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: October 16, 2019, 01:21:55 PM »
It is good to have it on this topic:
The Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring have just published the first CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map of the 2019/20 freezing season:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/#Oct-16

Quote
Note in particular the dark blue area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

13
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 16, 2019, 12:34:13 PM »
At Nullschool seems that there are two depressions forming, not just one.
One on the Pacific and one on the Gulf of Mexico.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 16, 2019, 05:43:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 15th, 2019:
     5,034,952 km2, an increase of 92,169 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     The difference versus the lowest and 2nd lowest is 350K+ km2.  :o
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 15, 2019, 05:54:14 AM »
If the extent gains don't catch up soon, 2019 will be lower than 2007 on its remaining 4 record days in October:
Seems that you were right.  "Bye bye" to the 2007 daily remaining records!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 15, 2019, 05:45:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 14th, 2019:
     4,942,783 km2, an increase of 61,934 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 14, 2019, 11:44:02 PM »
Absence of  XX% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.

Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be  to far along to halt the changes.
Great statements, that apply to AWG in general!!!  ;)

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 05:49:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 11th, 2019:
     4,764,619 km2, an increase of 66,327 km2.

October 12th, 2019:
     4,830,933 km2, an increase of 66,314 km2.

October 13th, 2019:
     4,880,849 km2, an increase of 49,916 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 07:22:56 PM »
Each of the IPCC reports issued this decade has made projections of when the Arctic will be ice free.

AR5 (2013) Chapter 11, page 995
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf

Quote
Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly ice-free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100...

They have avoided the "Discussion", not the projections.

I completely agree with Wherestheice.
Is the IPCC under-estimating the severity of the ASI trends and AGW in general? I surely can start a topic about this subject, but at this time, let’s just complete the comment that I made yesterday.

The first graph became famous from the first version, back to February or March 2007 (before the melting season that we suffered that year, so the under-estimating of the IPCC models is more obvious after the melting season!!!). This is a 2012 version.

The second graph comes from the US National Climate Assessment 2014. I like the conclusion: “Extrapolation of the present observed trend suggests an essentially ice-free Arctic in summer before mid-century”. I also agree that the standard definition of ice-free Arctic is “less than one million square kilometers”, even that I would prefer other definitions based on area or volume, not extent and not monthly average (NSIDC standard).

But the IPCC didn’t include this graph on the WG1AR5 report, as far as I know. Instead, they included other graphs less clear (Graph 3 and Image 4). And from my point of view, the chances that we have pass the point of no-return on having an ice-free Arctic are big, regardless of the IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Finally, they add the "...for at least 5 consecutive years" to the definition, that I certainly don’t agree. I also believe that this definition change should not have a scientific consensus. I believe some people in the IPCC report included this definition, trying to avoid the real scientific discussion.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2019, 04:05:37 PM »
Maybe Hagibis is the reason for delay ?

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/10/12/asia/japan-typhoon-hagibis-intl-hnk/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fedition.cnn.com%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DHagibis
Good comment, Niall.
I hope that there will not be too much damage in Japan and in ADS Office.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2019, 05:40:44 AM »
I cannot access the ADS (JAXA) page...  :(
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 03:58:49 AM »
Each of the IPCC reports issued this decade has made projections of when the Arctic will be ice free.

AR5 (2013) Chapter 11, page 995
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf

Quote
Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly ice-free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100...

They have avoided the "Discussion", not the projections.

I completely agree with Wherestheice.

After the 2007 and especially the 2012, other institutions changed the forecast of an ice-free Arctic to "before 2050". The IPCC, on their report ended 29 of January of 2016 (even that they started on 2013), instead of discusing when it could happened, they just change the definition of ice-free Arctic! Edit: Maybe I remembered it wrong. I will check this statement and come back.

Adding "...for at least 5 consecutive years" was a very low action coming from the IPCC.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 01:44:41 AM »
P.D. Of course, following the events on the ASIF, I am on the "wait & see". But I am becoming more an activist also.
Go for it, Juan!
Instead of tolerate what we cannot change,
we must change what we cannot tolerate
 ;)
(message from one of my daughters).

(back to topic  ;D )

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 01:06:46 AM »
… but all we have to do is wait & see (just a few years).
I definitely don't like the "wait & see". I am concerned about passing no-return points. If we look at volume, we lost almost 1/3 on 2000-2009 and almost 2/3 on 2010-2019, against the 1979-2000 average.

That is too much!

The 2007, 2012 and 2019 are outliers when you see NSIDC extent figures, but not with PIOMAS volumes. I also don't like monthly averages on extent. 2016 was a terrible year, but because it had an early refreeze, doesn't look that bad. 2017 was also a terrible year looking at volume the whole year. It was just ok around September.

IMO, 2020-2029 will be pretty bad, even if we only have 2 or 3 years like 2012. We don't need a BOE, if Greenland ice and permafrost accelerate their melt.

P.D. Of course, following the events on the ASIF, I am on the "wait & see". But I am becoming more an activist also.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 12:55:06 AM »
NSIDC appear to be a bit supportive of a "hiatus" in Arctic Sea Ice Loss.

Here is their spiel about it from Oct 3  https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (Graph also attached)

Quote
Within the overall decline, it is notable that the most recent 13 years, from 2007 to 2019, have shown very little decline (Figure 3b). Both 2007 and 2012 were extreme low extent years, and variability has been high in this period. However, an earlier 13 year period, 1999 to 2012, shows a rate of decline that is more than double the overall rate in the satellite record. This illustrates the challenge of extracting a quantitative rate of decline in a highly variable system like sea ice, and the benefits of looking at decadal, and not year-to-year variations. Our updates to our public analysis tool, Charctic now allows the user to see the decadal average trends as well as each year (Figure 3c).

Who am I, a mere observer to disagree - but I do...

NSIDC should include the author of the monthly analysis. Some times I agree with them. Other times I feel that a denier wrote a statement. Surely there are different people doing this task.

26
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 11, 2019, 08:02:33 AM »
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.
It happened 3 times in the XX Century & four times in the first 19 years of the XXI Century.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 11, 2019, 07:15:32 AM »
     FWIW, the September 2019 IPCC cryosphere report shows Extent becoming asymptotic at about 10% of the 2000 level around 2070. 
https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf
     
     Given the length and detail of the IPCC cryosphere report, there is a surprisingly brief discussion of Arctic sea ice trends.  ASIF is a better source than IPCC! (seriously). After a quick search, I found nothing in the IPCC report about ASI volume projections.  Figure 3.3 on page 3-13 is the closest information.  It charts ASI Extent under the RCP scenarios.  In those projections, even the RCP8.5 scenario retains 10% September Extent for 2070-2100. 

      The scientists who donate their hard work to IPCC reports are the experts and I feel like an ungrateful flea telling the dog what to do in critiquing their work.  But my small fevered brain is unable to reconcile the trends charted by Wipneus and Stephan, or that I can see for myself in the data from PIOMAS, with the IPCC statements shown below from page 3-25.  To be blunt, I suspect that the IPCC is under-estimating the severity of the ASI trends.

Same conclusions (on bold, made by me), long time ago. The IPCC is in fact, avoiding the discussion of when the Arctic will be ice free. It is easier to simulate that they are doing their work, at the same time that they respect politicians.

On the other hand, some of them are politicians!
 ---> IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change.

Edit:
Quote
Greta Thunberg speech at UN Climate Change COP24 Conference:

We have not come here to beg world leaders to care. You have ignored us in the past and you will ignore us again.
We have run out of excuses and we are running out of time.
We have come here to let you know that change is coming, whether you like it or not. The real power belongs to the people.
"...we are running out of time" but the IPCC is still talking about 2100.
"...The real power belongs to the people." ---> ASIF?  ;)

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2019, 05:48:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 10th, 2019:
     4,698,292 km2, an increase of 59,910 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

29
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: October 11, 2019, 12:44:41 AM »
Quote
The world needs a massive carbon tax in just 10 years to limit climate change, IMF says

The international organization suggests a cost of $75 per ton by 2030.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/10/10/world-needs-massive-carbon-tax-just-years-limit-climate-change-imf-says/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

And if we start with a cost of $40 per ton by January 2020? ???
I would like a commitment now, not in ten years! ;)


30
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 11, 2019, 12:38:28 AM »
Quote
On Sunday morning, it was a tropical storm. By Monday morning, it had Category 5 winds. Super Typhoon Hagibis, currently moving near the Federated States of Micronesia in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, is a monster that gathered strength at one of the fastest rates ever observed on Earth.

The storm has a massive shield of towering thunderstorms surrounding a pinhole-like eye that is just a few miles across.

Its 160 mph winds firmly establish it as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, looming as a behemoth on satellite after a period of extremely rapid intensification.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/07/tropical-storm-category-hours-super-typhoon-hagibis-intensifies-one-fastest-rates-record/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

31
TV Meteorologists Warming to Climate Science
with Peter Sinclair


32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 06:01:51 AM »
October 4-8.
Could be that Lorenzo's waves took a toll on the Atlantic Ocean side, especially around Svalbard?
Strange to see such a drop on October.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 05:42:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 9th, 2019:
     4,638,382 km2, a drop of -12,541 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

34
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: October 09, 2019, 03:32:42 PM »
It will be good to have this video on this topic.
The first 37 mins don't have information.
The IPCC's recently released "Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate":

https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/home/

Here's a recording of the associated press conference:



The first 37 mins are rather boring!

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: October 09, 2019, 06:12:13 AM »
The big question is if the mega crack will happen again next year and so on. The ice being young does not help but if the reason is changed currents (or weaknesses only recently showing) that will change the story for the future.

A much more mobile central ice pack can go anywhere in a bad year.
It also happened on 2018. Maybe not as big on CAA, but surely important north of Greenland.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2019, 06:05:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 8th, 2019:
     4,650,923 km2, an increase of only 638 km2:o
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

37
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 08, 2019, 07:36:55 PM »
Andy Lee Robinson, "Ice Dream":


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 08, 2019, 07:33:57 PM »
The always great video of Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2019, by Andy Lee Robinson:


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: October 08, 2019, 02:34:42 PM »
I am surprised that remnants of the caa-greenland mega crack are still there today. I wonder of the implications that it could have on the 2020 melting season. That is, could be possible to have more mobility of the older ice on 2020, if it is not strongly attached to land? It should be first-year ice what we will have on the mega crack.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2019, 05:45:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 7th, 2019:
     4,650,285 km2, an increase of 48,462 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 07, 2019, 07:21:26 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

I am not sure that 2019 had the second warmest August on record. But trying to explain the low melt/compaction on August 2019, what I notice was that there was not strong wind. Some low pressures, but not enough to mix the ice with warmer waters and generate a melt.

What does anybody think about the low melt and compaction on August 2019?

(Sorry for the off topic, but the 2019 melting season topic is closed  ;) ).

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 07, 2019, 05:47:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 6th, 2019:
     4,601,823 km2, an increase of 45,481 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 05:38:57 PM »
According to NSIDC, 2007 is still the second lowest on record. But if we look at JAXA, 2007 is the fourth lowest on record. So, if we still have AMSR2 data on the next decade, JAXA will put as the default graph, the years 2012, 2016 and 2019, but 2007 will be out.

More important, if we analyze the PIOMAS volume, 2007 is now the tenth lowest on record. September 2019 end up being less than 2/3 of the September 2007 volume (64.2%).

There has been critics that as a Forum, we have the tendency to forecast low values. It has been true in cases when there is a forecast of a blue ocean event, but from my point of view, not completely true if you look at volume.

It is true that the forecast of less than 1,000 km3 has been moving forward (from what we expected after September 2012) but we will still have the chance to see this figure (less than 1,000 km3) on the next decade. From my point of view, less than 2,000 km3 will be very bad and there is a greater chance that we have this figure on 2020-29.

Thank you, Wipneus! Great graphs!

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 06, 2019, 05:46:23 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 5th, 2019:
     4,556,342 km2, an increase of 22,018 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: October 06, 2019, 02:18:21 AM »
I was wishing that 2019 could break the 2007 NSIDC September average. That explains my June and July votes (3.75-4.25M km2, definitely below the 2007 record of 4.27M km2). But 2007 had a very late refreeze, so it is difficult to break the average, even that 2019 had a lower NSIDC daily mínimum than 2007. Of course, the very low melt/compactation at the end of August 2019 had also an influence. A little more melt/compactation in August and 2019 would break the NSIDC 2007 September average.

Anyway, second place tied with Aluminium, it is good enough.  ;)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 05, 2019, 05:42:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 4th, 2019:
     4,534,324 km2, an increase of 18,749 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: October 05, 2019, 04:19:34 AM »
My prediction (JAXA Sep minimum): 3.75-4,25 M km², high confidence
My prediction (NSIDC Sep Average): 4.00-4.50 M km², high confidence
Ditto.

You were following Stephan vote, so if you didn't missed the August poll, you would be in first place, like him...

48
Permafrost / Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« on: October 04, 2019, 06:13:14 PM »
Quote
Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground

A Washington Post analysis found that the region near the town of Zyryanka, in an enormous wedge of eastern Siberia called Yakutia, has warmed by more than 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times — roughly triple the global average.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 04, 2019, 05:51:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,460,032 km2(October 1, 2019)

No drama - really boring

Not really. I am interested to see what will happened after October 15th.
Will 2019 become the lowest on record?
It is also interesting that 2016 & 2018 will compete to be the lowest with 2007 and 2012. The true is that the last 3 years (2016-2018) had been too low on winter. Will 2019 end that way?

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 3rd, 2019:
     4,515,575 km2, an increase of "only" 23,769 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:59:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 2nd, 2019:
     4,491,806 km2, an increase of 31,774 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

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