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Messages - Juan C. García

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 10, 2020, 06:11:22 AM »
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
July poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 HC (High confidence)
July poll for NSIDC: 3.75-4.25M km2 HC (High confidence)
July poll for PIOMAS: 3.75-4.25K km3 HC (High confidence)
August poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 HC (High confidence)
August poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 HC (High confidence)
August poll for PIOMAS: 3.75-4.25K km3 HC (High confidence)

2
I am going up one bin, to 4.0-4.5 M km2.
There is only one day left to vote or change your vote.

3
I am staying in the range 3.75-4.25 K km3.
There is only one day left to vote or change your vote.

4
I am going up one bin, to 3.5-4.0 M km2.
There is only one day left to vote or change your vote.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 10, 2020, 05:29:42 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 9th, 2020:
     5,297,487 km2, a drop of -93,406 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

6
Just 2 more days to vote or change your vote.  ;)

7
Just 2 more days to vote or change your vote.  ;)

8
Just 2 more days to vote or change your vote.  ;)

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 09, 2020, 05:42:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 8th, 2020:
     5,390,893 km2, a drop of -68,169 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 06:01:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 7th, 2020:
     5,459,062 km2, a drop of -29,992 km2.
     2020 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Why doesn't it feel like third lowest?
Or it does?

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 08, 2020, 05:33:52 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 7th, 2020:
     5,459,062 km2, a drop of -29,992 km2.
     2020 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 07, 2020, 06:06:37 PM »
Its in both the first post and a post on August 1st. Midnight UK time on the day the polls close which is about 20 hours after the polls close.

So the deadline is August 11th:

Editing to change a prediction is allowed at any time before the deadline. Editing for any reason after the deadline will result in disqualification of that entry.
Open for August entries. Oren provides a nice example of the preferred way to format them in the previous post.

Deadline is midnight UK time on August 11th which is approximately 20 hours after the polls close.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 12:10:33 PM »
Remember that over the ice the surface temperature will be pegged close to 0C due to the latent heat of fusion of ice, much like the 80N temps are. So you will not see strong +ve surface temperature values until the ice has melted, no matter how much heat is actually in the air.
As such, using 850hPa level (or 925hPa if available) in these situations works better for assessing ice thaw than surface level values.

Well said sir!
Well, there be high temps on Chukchi and Beaufort for 48 hours.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/08/09/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-82.04,66.30,601/loc=-166.928,75.982

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:18:49 AM »
Already thinking I went too low here. Oh well, should have waited.
As I understand this challenge, there is still time to change your August prediction, if you want to do it.
On the 3 polls we have the chance to change them until the first hours on August 11th. It will be convenient if Richard Rathbone tell us the deadline on this challenge.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:34:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2020:
     5,489,054 km2, a drop of -13,014 km2.
     2020 is still the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 06:10:17 AM »
I am overwhelmed and touched by the generosity of spirit of so many of you.

The fund has reached its goal.

I hope you will see me posting again pretty soon.

Thanks again,

Matt
Gerontocrat: Congratulations that you got a new laptop & it is great that you accepted the gift. The ASIF would not be the same without you!

An now, I invite everybody to think on Neven. He has been running this place and the ASIB for 10+ years. I don't know how much it has cost, but I am sure that it has been expensive to develop and maintain.

To donate, you have to go to Neven's ASIB and click on "Support & donate" on the circle on the right side.

https://neven1.typepad.com/

Thanks! We are a great team!

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 05:38:40 AM »
I am surprised of how weak the Arctic sea ice looks, but at the end, the extent drops have been lower than average.
Sorry that I posted here. I thought that I was on "The 2020 melting season" thread.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 5th, 2020:
     5,502,068 km2, a drop of -52,097 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 05:08:45 AM »
I am surprised of how weak the Arctic sea ice looks, but at the end, the extent drops have been lower than average.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 06:05:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 4th, 2020:
     5,554,165 km2, a drop of -58,769 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:31:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 3rd, 2020:
     5,612,934 km2, a drop of -56,912 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 05:32:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 2nd, 2020:
     5,669,846 km2, a drop of -48,032 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

22
For today, my bet is between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2.

IF remaining extent losses to minimum turn ou to be at the average of the last 10 years remaining melt, the September Monthly Average would be 3.96 million km2, 412k above the record low of 3.55 million km2 in 2012, but 317k less than the 2007 (2nd lowest) value.

Like all projections / predictions / forecasts there is only one certainty. It won't happen that way, and even that is uncertain.

I'm waiting for PIOMAS volume, a few days more data and Mystic Meg before I cast my vote.

So, my prediction is in corcondancia with your numbers, for now.
I am also waiting for PIOMAS and also, to see how much extent/area ASI melting we will have in the following 7 days.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:54:33 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.

I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

A lot of the ASI still qualifies as extent, but I wonder how much time can it be that way.
I am still waiting for large extent drops, even that they are not happening right now.
The melting season has not ended yet. Still around 45 days more.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 1st, 2020:
     5,717,878 km2, a drop of -38,506 km2.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:32:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 1st, 2020:
     5,717,878 km2, a drop of -38,506 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

25
Science / Re: Beaufort Gyre Reversal and a Return to 1960's Level SIE
« on: August 02, 2020, 12:14:18 AM »
Hello Juan C Garcia, this is my first intervention on ASIF. I have decided to give up the crown of ASIF's oldest lurker ;).

Welcome to the ASIF, Général de GuerreLasse.  :)

It has been a while since the topic of a gyre reversal has been discussed. Although the Beaufort Gyre used to reverse direction and spin counterclockwise every 5 to 7 years it has now been 21 years since a reversal has occurred. The fresh water in the Gyre has continued to increase as has the Pacific Warm Water in the Beaufort. I was looking for new studies but I didn't find any. The WHOI Beaufort Gyre webpage has a reference to " Arctic Sea Ice Forum "  and ASLR has as good a summary as I can find. 

https://www.whoi.edu/website/beaufortgyre/home

So there is a long range , one week , projection of a strong low pressure setting up over the Gyre. I would think one of these years a reversal will happen . If there was a concurrent Garlic press set-up ...
Anyhow it would be something different than the Arctic we are used to watch melt and freeze.

For those who want a fast and easy way to learn about this topic, I recommend the following video, that comes from the link that Bruce Steele have on the quote.


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 05:32:57 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 31st, 2020:
     5,756,384 km2, a drop of -21,929 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 02:48:32 AM »
Maybe I should add that Wipneus uses a somewhat different definition of the regions than on the NSIDC website.  In particular, the CAB region as defined in Wipneus' data is about 38% larger than on the NSIDC website.

In addition, he has a spreadsheet with the daily regional NSIDC data for all previous days and years:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/nsidc_arc_nt_detail.txt
Hi.

I made 2 analysis with the data from NSIDC provided by Wipneus. The first analysis looks to the changes from July 21st to July 30th. The true is that I choose the 21st just randomly, without a reason. The second analysis is from July 25th to July 30th. I think that July 25th was the beginning of the storm that had an impact on the ASI.

At first, after looking at the numbers, I did not know what to think. There is a bigger lost on area that it is on extent. I was expecting that. But the drops, in both analyses, are concentrated on the Central Arctic Basin, not on Chukchi and Beaufort.

On a 2nd thought, the drops on Chukchi and Beaufort were important when they are measure on percentage (2nd analysis). So, what I think is that the CAB had a hit north of Chukchi and Beaufort. I need to analyze the frontier of both seas versus the CAB, to see is that is true. But that is beyond the analysis that I am looking to do now.

I include the numbers of both analyses.

28
dispersion late in august with ice ranging from 40-80 cm.  4.018 for minimum on Sept. 8.  will there be a min. volume poll?
It is a volume poll with PIOMAS data:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3230.0.html

29
in volume, I think that 2020 will end between 2012 and 2019, even that I expect that in the end of July, the year 2020 could be the lowest on record. Will it happen? We will know in 5-7 days.

For now, 3.75-4.25K km3 range.

30
For today, my bet is between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2.

31
I'm starting this poll with the 3.25-3.75M km2 range. Looking at Gerontocrat's posts, his latest projection is on 3.54M km2, so I feel confortable here.
I will wait 8 or 9 days to give my final bet.

I include the ADS JAXA graph that shows the years until September. What will happen?  8)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:35:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 30th, 2020:
     5,778,313 km2, a drop of -52,808 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:30:16 AM »
The quick view of today Bremen ASI Concentration.

I think that there is almost no ASI frontier in which there is no melting going on.
Of course, Chukchi and Beaufort don't look good.
If this were the image of August 10th, I would feel more confortable. But it is the end on July.

34
Until 2004, all years were above 10,000 km3. The years 2005 and 2006 were on the 9,000-10,000 km3 range. And from 2007 to 2019, the volume has been at 7,250 km3 or under. The worst year [2012] was 3,787 km3.

Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year    Sept. Avg.
          (103 km3)
2000      11.08
2001      12.28
2002      10.85
2003      10.28
2004      10.04
2005        9.28
2006        9.11
2007        6.53
2008        7.25
2009        6.93
2010        4.74
2011        4.48
2012        3.79
2013        5.48
2014        6.97
2015        5.85
2016        4.53
2017        4.68
2018        5.08
2019        4.19

From lowest to highest:

35
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: July 31, 2020, 04:06:40 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two ASI extent polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum [provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP)].
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2019 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71
2019             4.32

From lowest to highest:

36
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2020, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46
2019               3.96

Order by lowest to highest:

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2020, 04:55:09 PM »
It should be 3.89 million km2 for 28 July 2020.  I'm not sure how you got 4.04 million km2?

Here are the single-day NSIDC area values for the last 10 days.  The table also shows the change from the previous day and the anomaly relative to the 1981-2010 average, in million km2.
Thanks Steven.

This is the table that I was looking for (I made it now, there is no data for yesterday yet):
[Almost 500K km2 difference between the drop in area and the drop in extent].
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/nsidc_arc_nt_detail.txt

P.S. I will look to give more data and correct orthographic errors [ :P ], when today's data is available.

38
Science / Re: Beaufort Gyre Reversal and a Return to 1960's Level SIE
« on: July 30, 2020, 02:41:27 PM »
It is ok, Bruce. No hard feelings.
I tried to find the study that I mentioned before, without success. I didn't keep it in my files and I don't find it on internet.
So please continue with your analysis. I don't have knowledge about this topic.
Quote
Juan, I watch your updates every night as they arrive about bedtime. Last thing I see before lights go out. Thanks for the work and consistency.
You are welcome.  :)

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:33:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 29th, 2020:
     5,831,121 km2, a drop of -54,901 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:28:00 AM »
A quick view, after the worst part of the storm...

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2020, 03:00:13 AM »
You can find the single-day NSIDC regional extent and area values on Wipneus' site.  I think this is the file you're looking for:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhcmN0aXNjaGVwaW5ndWlufGd4OjJhYjU3ZGMzNjUxYjdhZTc
Thank you, Steven.
I will look at them.  :)

Glad it's useful. 

Maybe I should add that Wipneus uses a somewhat different definition of the regions than on the NSIDC website.  In particular, the CAB region as defined in Wipneus' data is about 38% larger than on the NSIDC website.

In addition, he has a spreadsheet with the daily regional NSIDC data for all previous days and years:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/nsidc_arc_nt_detail.txt
Thank you, Steven.
I have to check the numbers more carefully.
At a fast look, I get on July 28th.:  4.04M km2 for area, excluding lakes.
It is an interesting data set.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 08:04:22 PM »

3,880,926 km^2 comes from Nico Sun, website https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Is Nico using one-day NSIDC area, not 5-day trailing average? If yes, that is scary as it shows nearly 300k of more area loss is already banked.
NSIDC Daily Area from Wipneus page:
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhcmN0aXNjaGVwaW5ndWlufGd4OjJhYjU3ZGMzNjUxYjdhZTc

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 06:20:45 AM »
While these dates have been effectively cherry picked to maximise the slow down shown, I still think it is still a remarkable statistic.  Extent reduction over the last 6 days has been over 30% lower than the previous slowest period for the same date range.

It is true, when we talk about ASI extent. But there is still 45 days left in this melting season and Beaufort doesn't look as it was 3 or 5 days ago. Surely, there is a decrease in area.

Also, the Northern Sea Route continues to be wide open, the seas north of Russia are getting warmer, as it happens with the Atlantic and Pacific fronts.

Finally, there is also heat on the Canadian Archipelago. I still think that the Northwest route will open on the first half of August.

When you talk about above 4M km2, are you thinking on the NSIDC September average? Or it is also about any (NSIDC or JAXA) extent daily value?

Edit: I asked because I think that it could be possible to have a little more of 4M km2 on NSIDC September average, if a freeze starts strong in September and there is not a strong melt on the final melting season. I normaly think more on the ADS JAXA daily value and at this moment, I think that 3.3 +/- 0.5M km2 could be the best bet.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2020, 05:47:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 28th, 2020:
     5,886,022 km2, a drop of -32,897 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

45
Science / Re: Beaufort Gyre Reversal and a Return to 1960's Level SIE
« on: July 29, 2020, 12:40:31 AM »
I remember reading a scientific article that said that a Beaufort gyre reversal will push the multi year Arctic sea ice to the Fram Strait, making the possibility of a BOE. I don't have time to look for the article, but I believe it is possible.

Completely the opposite impact to what this topic title is suggesting.

Juan, I think the discussion of what happens when a reversal happens is what this thread is about. The loss of a large amount of Beaufort gyre surface fresh water is bound to make some salinity changes in other parts of the arctic and the North Atlantic. ...
 
 I still don’t understand why any premise invalidates discussion.
 I took offense at “ this is what happens when people overanalyze details too much and lose sight of the big picture “. ...

Hi Bruce Steele.

I was not trying to offend and I am not trying to avoid block or derail any useful discussion. I am not an oceanographer and I know my limitations understanding this subject.

On 2016 the Arctic had a strong Beaufort gyre and I tried to learn about it, so I found a study about a reversal on the Beaufort gyre. I was surprised that they were talking that it could make an ice-free Arctic. At that time, I found it hard to believe, but now, after seeing that the “strong multi year ice” close to Canada and Greenland start to crumble, well, I think that a reverse Beaufort gyre could be a beginning of a BOE. It is just an amateur point of view, but I really read a scientific study about it.

Other than that, I respect the discussion that you can have here and I know that there are several people that have more knowledge than me on this subject.

Have a great day, Bruce and everyone!

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 28, 2020, 09:26:17 PM »
Seems that they don't make public the single day value.  :(

You can find the single-day NSIDC regional extent and area values on Wipneus' site.  I think this is the file you're looking for:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhcmN0aXNjaGVwaW5ndWlufGd4OjJhYjU3ZGMzNjUxYjdhZTc
Thank you, Steven.
I will look at them.  :)

47
Science / Re: Beaufort Gyre Reversal and a Return to 1960's Level SIE
« on: July 28, 2020, 06:39:11 PM »
I remember reading a scientific article that said that a Beaufort gyre reversal will push the multi year Arctic sea ice to the Fram Strait, making the possibility of a BOE. I don't have time to look for the article, but I believe it is possible.

Completely the opposite impact to what this topic title is suggesting.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 28, 2020, 05:37:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 27th, 2020:
     5,918,919 km2, a drop of -43,906 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 28, 2020, 12:30:49 AM »
Are you sure, Juan, these data are single day values ?
They look identical to Gerontocrat's 5 days values.
You are right. Seems that they don't make public the single day value.  :(

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:48:28 PM »
Usually, the NSIDC single day values are seeing without confidence. It is recommended to follow the NSIDC 5-day trailing average. But I decided to make an analysis with the single day values, just to try to understand how the Arctic sea ice is being hit by the storm.

It is interesting that according to NSIDC, almost all the regions lost extent and area. Only the Laptev increase on both, extent and area.

What I was expecting became true: the area figure doubles the lost that we have on extent.

It is the Central Arctic the one that receive the strongest hit on area and it is the Canadian Archipelago the one that had the biggest lost on both, extent and area. Chukchi, ESS, Beaufort and Greenland had also a kind of important lost on area.


It is 5-day trailing average.  :-[

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