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Messages - Juan C. García

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:32:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 17th, 2020:
     3,734,834 km2, a 100K+ increase of 104,616 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. The melting season is officially over!  ;)

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: September 17, 2020, 08:40:03 PM »
    Nice catch Juan.
The truth is that I read it first in NSIDC Analysis. I have to acknowledge them.

Quote
A recent paper by an international group led by political geographer Mia Bennett at the University of Hong Kong discusses the potential impacts of the near-future emergence of a transpolar shipping route as sea ice retreat continues to open a very wide shipping lane along the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean (as it has this year). The route would pass over the North Pole as a way of avoiding an extensive Russian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and still-contended continental shelf claim.

This emerging transpolar route reflects a fundamentally changed Arctic environment. Another recent paper by researchers Laura Landrum and Marika Holland at the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that the Arctic has indeed entered into a “new Arctic climate” state. This new climate is one characterized by warmer temperatures, more open water, less sea ice, more rain, and less snow. In the Arctic, weather that used to be considered extreme is becoming the norm. The summer of 2020 is clearly representative of this new Arctic.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/09/suddenly-in-second-place/

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: September 17, 2020, 11:30:22 AM »
A new route through the Arctic?
Why not directly to the North Pole?

Quote
The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts
Mia M.Bennett, Scott R.Stephenson, KangYang, Michael T.Bravo, Bert De Jonghe

Highlights
• A seasonal ice-free shipping route via the North Pole may open by mid-century.

• The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) is shorter and deeper than the Northern Sea Route.

• Development options include transshipment ports in the Bering and Fram Straits.

• The TSR's environmental and socioeconomic impacts could be locally significant.

• Despite rapid climate change, there is still time to prepare for the TSR's opening.

Quote
Abstract

With current scientific models forecasting an ice-free Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer by mid-century and potentially earlier, a direct shipping route via the North Pole connecting markets in Asia, North America, and Europe may soon open. The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would represent a third Arctic shipping route in addition to the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. In response to the continued decline of sea ice thickness and extent and growing recognition within the Arctic and global governance communities of the need to anticipate and regulate commercial activities in the CAO, this paper examines: (i) the latest estimates of the TSR's opening; (ii) scenarios for its commercial and logistical development, addressing the various transportation systems that could evolve; (iii) the geopolitics of the TSR, focusing on international and national regulations and the roles of Russia, a historic power in the Arctic, and China, an emerging one; and (iv) the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of transpolar shipping for local and Indigenous residents of communities along the TSR's entrances. Our analysis seeks to inform national and international policymaking with regard to the TSR because although climate change is proceeding rapidly, within typical policymaking timescales, there is still time to prepare for the emergence of the new Arctic shipping corridor.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X2030453X?via%3Dihub

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 05:33:09 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 16th, 2020:
     3,630,218 km2, an increase of 24,861 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

5
So I think we can call this now. The 3.25 to 3.75 bin and the 3.5 to 4.0 bins were the correct ones - well done to those who made these predictions!

50.8% of the votes were on those ranges. Congrats to the ASIF people!
But I want to say, it was close to be lower than 3.5M km2. We witnessed an impressive melting season!

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2020, 05:36:36 AM »
As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....

VaughnAn

Agreed.

You are welcome! and 1+ thanks to everyone else!!!  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 15th, 2020:
     3,605,357 km2, an increase of 23,341 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

8
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: September 15, 2020, 07:10:23 PM »
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/08/1912890117

Quote
In the future, this mechanical weakening and increased velocity gradients due to loss of frictional gradients at the ice shelf margins are not expected to trigger negative feedbacks that counterbalance the damage as damage healing is expected only for negative maximum strain rates, which are limited for ice shelves (38). As such, it is different from other ice shelf weakening processes such as surface or subshelf melt as these can be counterbalanced by changes in atmospheric or oceanic processes, which are prone to climatic variability (3⇓–5). Therefore, the damage process and mechanical weakening in the shear zones have similar far-reaching consequences for ice shelf stability as localized ice shelf thinning in basal channels (27, 39). This sensitivity suggests that incorporating damage processes in future ice sheet models in combination with accurate knowledge of ocean forcing, bathymetry, bedrock topography, ice velocity, and surface melt is crucial to assess the future sea level contributions from major Antarctic glaciers.

What it means to me, with my very limited knowledge, is that we (humanity) cannot yet assess the sea level rise that we will face at the end of the 21st century, with this high-speed anthropogenic global warming.

But only one meter I consider it very unlikely. It is less than 1.8% of the possible total melt of 56-60 meters, with Greenland facing an ice-free Arctic on 2035 or earlier (65+ years receiving heat).

9
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: September 15, 2020, 06:50:56 PM »
Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment
Stef Lhermitte, Sainan Sun, Christopher Shuman, Bert Wouters, Frank Pattyn, Jan Wuite, Etienne Berthier, and Thomas Nagler
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117

Abstract
Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/08/1912890117

10
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: September 15, 2020, 06:42:36 PM »
Quote
Two major Antarctic glaciers are tearing loose from their restraints, scientists say
Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers already contribute 5 percent of sea-level rise.
By Chris Mooney
September 14, 2020 at 2:03 p.m. CDT

“The stresses that slow down the glacier, they are no longer in place, so the glacier is speeding up,” said Stef Lhermitte, a satellite expert at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands who led the new research along with colleagues from NASA and other research institutions in France, Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/09/14/glaciers-breaking-antarctica-pine-island-thwaites/

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 04:26:13 PM »
I think the profound thing here is that we have now had two low, almost record breaking minimums in a row. In recent history we have had one low year about every 5 or 6 years. This is different!

In my perception, that is not completely true. 2005 was a terrible year, compared with the previous years. And until the middle of July, the year 2006 seem to be worst than 2005. At September it did not happened, but September 2006 was worse than any previous year, except for 2005. Then we have the huge drop of 2007. So, three bad years in a row.

On the other hand, Bremen said that on daily basis, 2011 broke the 2007 record. 2011 start to refreeze early, so on NSIDC average, September 2011 was not that bad. But it was a bad year if you look it in detail. And then it came 2012.

Finally, 2016 was a bad year in extent and 2017 was an awfully bad year in volume until July.

My perception is that we have just been lucky in summer weather in years like 2006, 2011 and 2017. But the tendency is the tendency and we are going to have new records and a BOE, unless something unexpected happens, like we have a huge amount of fresh water that really slows the AMOC.

So 2019 and 2020 are two bad years in a row, but it happened before.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 06:15:19 AM »
September 10-14.

2019.

It seems that it is in CAA where the ASI increased.
I really like your gif's, Aluminium.  :)
Thanks!

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 05:56:03 AM »
It is impressive that we are still losing ice within the 85°N parallel.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 05:32:39 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 14th, 2020:
     3,582,016 km2, an increase of 27,218 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 14, 2020, 05:49:46 AM »
Thank you, Gerontocrat and Juan, ...

And if you do put out a single, I will buy it!

You are welcome, Pagophilus.  :)
And I also thank many people who are working hard on this and other threads.  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 13th, 2020:
     3,554,798 km2, a drop of -9,058 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 13, 2020, 07:26:14 PM »
Nothing that is new in this Forum, but I like the videos he makes. A good summary of what is happening in the Arctic.


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 13, 2020, 05:37:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 12th, 2020:
     3,563,856 km2, a small increase of  1,568 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2020, 05:35:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 11th, 2020:
     3,562,288 km2, a drop of -8,755 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

19
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: September 12, 2020, 02:36:17 AM »
Quote
NEWS  10 SEPTEMBER 2020
The Arctic is burning like never before — and that’s bad news for climate change

Fires are releasing record levels of carbon dioxide, partly because they are burning ancient peatlands that have been a carbon sink.

Alexandra Witze

Wildfires blazed along the Arctic Circle this summer, incinerating tundra, blanketing Siberian cities in smoke and capping the second extraordinary fire season in a row. By the time the fire season waned at the end of last month, the blazes had emitted a record 244 megatonnes of carbon dioxide — that’s 35% more than last year, which also set records. One culprit, scientists say, could be peatlands that are burning as the top of the world melts.
...
A study published last month1 shows that northern peatlands could eventually shift from being a net sink for carbon to a net source of carbon, further accelerating climate change.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02568-y?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=44f6a8b6bc-briefing-dy-20200911&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-44f6a8b6bc-44556745

1.
Hugelius, G. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 20438–20446 (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/34/20438

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 11, 2020, 06:00:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

P.S.: As a curious fact, the 2020 ASI extent is only 49.4% of 1980's average. That is, 2020 ASI extent is 44,313 km2 less than the half (3,615,356 km2) of 1980's average.

Same graph, but including decade averages. It becomes a very different image. We often forget where we are when we compare with the first years of satellite data.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 11, 2020, 05:29:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 10th, 2020:
     3,571,043 km2, a drop of -15,383 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S.: As a curious fact, the 2020 ASI extent is only 49.4% of 1980's average. That is, 2020 ASI extent is 44,313 km2 less than the half (3,615,356 km2) of 1980's average.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 10, 2020, 04:42:16 PM »
JAXA is back up!  Data is updated through 09/09.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I will let Juan post the specifics.

Sorry I thought they will post a day later. My mistake.
Thanks JNap, RikW & Gerontocrat.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 9th, 2020:
     3,586,426 km2, a drop of -3,383 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: September 09, 2020, 04:51:03 PM »
EEI: Earth energy imbalance.

Earth's energy imbalance is the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth and the amount of energy the planet radiates to space as heat. If the imbalance is positive, more energy coming in than going out, we can expect Earth to become warmer in the future — but cooler if the imbalance is negative. Earth's energy imbalance is thus the single most crucial measure of the status of Earth's climate and it defines expectations for future climate change.

https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_16/#:~:text=Earth%27s%20energy%20imbalance%20is%20the,if%20the%20imbalance%20is%20negative.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: September 09, 2020, 04:27:01 PM »
September 8th NSIDC 5-day trailing average at 3.8M km2.
It looks that is sure that 2020 September average will be 2nd lowest, on the range 3.75-4.25M km2. Not sure if it will be above or under the 4M km2.

25
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: September 07, 2020, 06:22:57 AM »
Quote
Heat Wave Roasts Southern California With Record of 121 Degrees

Los Angeles County set a new high temperature as a cooling sea breeze remained trapped offshore, according to the National Weather Service.

Scorching temperatures continued to bake Southern California on Sunday, with a record of 121 degrees set in Los Angeles County and at least one death, a 41-year-old hiker, suspected to be related to the heat.

The record 121-degree reading, in Woodland Hills in the San Fernando Valley, northwest of downtown Los Angeles, eclipsed a record of 119, set in July 2006, according to Dave Bruno, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles/Oxnard forecasting office.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/california-weather.html?surface=most-popular&fellback=false&req_id=247945524&algo=bandit-all-surfaces&imp_id=343912850&action=click&module=Most%20Popular&pgtype=Homepage

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 06, 2020, 02:49:51 PM »
Ladies and gentlemen, we are now officially below 4 Mn km2  adue to NSIDC 5-day average numbers. Per 5/9 the number is 3,928 Mn km2. Anyone who has the daily values for the last five days?
                    Extent
Date          10^6 sq km
01-sep-20     4.004
02-sep-20     4.051
03-sep-20     3.939
04-sep-20     3.822
05-sep-20     3.822

You can always find them here:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 04, 2020, 05:37:45 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 3rd, 2020:

Our service will be stopped from Sep. 4th 12:00 JST  to 7th 12:00 JST by planned electrical  outage for legal inspection.
We sincerely apologize for inconveniencing you for a long time.

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1300656613674463232?s=20

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 03, 2020, 05:31:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 2nd, 2020:
     3,860,699 km2, a drop of -34,299 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 02, 2020, 03:51:29 PM »
NSIDC daily extent down by 196k. Pretty much a rarity. 
Methinks the sensors and the algorithms are finding it difficult.     

Even with the 196K km2 drop on the daily extent, the NSIDC September 1st, 2020 5-day trailing average [on Charctic graph] is 4.256M km2 on the same date, that is above of the daily minimums of 2007, 2016 and 2019. So, I like the 196K km2 daily drop that I see as a correction of the data that they have before, what I find hard to believe is that according to NSIDC, 2020 is still above these 3 minimums.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 02, 2020, 05:31:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 1st, 2020:
     3,894,998 km2, a drop of -48,315 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: September 01, 2020, 12:22:01 PM »
Quote
Sea Ice Outlook: 2020 August Report
31 August 2020

The August Outlook is based on a total of 39 forecasts (Figure 1), of which 25 are new August submissions while the remaining 14 are carried over from June and July. The median August Outlook value for the September 2020 sea-ice extent is 4.30 million square kilometers, with quartile values of 4.1 and 4.5 million square kilometers. Of the 39 August 2020 contributions, 16 are based on dynamical models, 17 are based on statistical methods, 4 are based on heuristic approaches (qualitative analyses), and 2 used machine learning-based methods. The median of the August submissions is close to that from July (4.36 million square kilometers) and June (4.33 million square kilometers). The 2020 August Outlook median is higher than 2019 (4.22 million square kilometers) and lower than 2018 (4.57 million square kilometers).
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/august

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 01, 2020, 05:31:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 31st, 2020:
     3,943,313 km2, a drop of -51,770 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. 2020 became the second lowest minimum on record today. There are still about two weeks left until the 2020 melting season ends.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 06:01:24 AM »
See the drift map for the last 3 days. For the sixth time the ice breaks down to the 85th parallel.

Thank you for the image, the drift that is happening is impressive.

It's just that I wonder how low Neven thinks 2020 will be. And the truth is, the drift took me by surprise. Anyway, Neven was talking about a 5 day forecast, so I think he wants to wait to see if the forecast is corroborated.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 31, 2020, 05:32:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 30th, 2020:
     3,995,083 km2, a drop of -63,462 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. 2020 became the third lowest minimum on record today. There are still about two weeks left until the 2020 melting season ends.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 06:56:01 PM »
August 25-29.

2019.

That retreat north of Severnaya Zemlya is really spectacular, wow. And it's not over yet. Today and tomorrow there's a peak pressure gradient of 42 hPa, but according to ECMWF it will be 44 hPa at 120 hrs. The direction of the winds will shift a bit, but overall the ice pack should continue to get pushed towards the Pole.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.

It will be very interesting if you explain in more detail what you are thinking. I will learn for sure. I don't see anything special with Freegrass' wind video.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2020, 04:35:18 PM »
   Thanks Gerontocrat not only for the data but for the concise narrative summaries that provide context and meaning to the numbers.  But I have a question.  In previous message (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg283986.html#msg283986 with remaining melt at the 10 year average, the 2020 minimum JAXA Extent table value is 3.70.  The chart in message above shows that by following the 10 year average melt, the 2020 minimum JAXA Extent bottoms out at about 3.775.  Such a small difference does not change the future of human civilization on the planet, but it just makes me wonder why the chart value does not match the table value.

I think I will answer this one.

It is different to first calculate the minimum of each year and then make the average, against first calculate the average of the day and then calculate the minimum. This is because the min of each year happens on different days.

ADS (JAXA) calculates the average of the day and Gerontocrat's chart is based on this calculation. The 2020 min will be 3.78M km2, while in Gerontocrat's table he first find the min of each year and then makes the average. The result is 3.70M km2.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2020, 06:41:39 AM »
66,000 from being second lowest on record - something that could easily happen before Sept 1.
It needs 94,306 km2 to be the second lowest minimum on record.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2020, 05:35:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 29th, 2020:
     4,058,545 km2, a drop of -60,389 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. The 2007 minimum is 4,065,739 km2, today's 2020 ASIE is 7,194 km2 lower, so 2020 became the fourth lowest minimum on record today. There are still about two weeks left until the 2020 melting season ends, so 2020 will be mostly certain the second lowest daily minimum.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 29, 2020, 05:31:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 28th, 2020:
     4,118,934 km2, a drop of -37,945 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 28, 2020, 05:33:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 27th, 2020:
     4,156,879 km2, a drop of -16,031 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

41
This is NSIDC Chartic with data until August 26th, 2020.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2020, 06:07:06 AM »
Thanks again for the regular update posts - much appreciated.


I wondered how the "plumes " graph would look if the lines stopped at the minimum each year ?   I think it might be easier to see where we are at and may be more dramatic.....
You are welcome.

I use the ADS charting tools to make my daily graphs so I don't have a good tool to do your request.

But it seems easy to do it manually. 2020 is already the fifth lowest on record, but it will continue to fall for around 3 weeks. So I only put some points with Paint in the 4 years with lowest minimum (2007, 2012, 2016 and 2019).

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2020, 05:32:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 26th, 2020:
     4,172,910 km2, a drop of -32,135 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 26, 2020, 05:34:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 25th, 2020:
     4,205,045 km2, a drop of -31,577 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 25, 2020, 05:33:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 24th, 2020:
     4,236,622 km2, a drop of -29,353 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 24, 2020, 05:33:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 23rd, 2020:
     4,265,975 km2, a drop of -51,510 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 23, 2020, 05:31:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 22nd, 2020:
     4,317,485 km2, a drop of -68,338 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 22, 2020, 05:34:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 21st, 2020:
     4,385,823 km2, an almost century break of -98,969 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 21, 2020, 05:32:50 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 20th, 2020:
     4,484,792 km2, a drop of -74,472 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

50
Changes from July 31.

Laptev ... -100%
Barents ... -100%
Hudson ... -100%
Kara ... -91%
Chukchi ... -72%
ESS ... -63%
Greenland ... -61%
Beaufort ... -37%
CAA ... -28%
Baffin ... -22%
CAB ... -16%

Great representation of the Arctic, Aluminium!
A question: What is the meaning of the red circle?

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