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Messages - Juan C. García

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151
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 11:57:39 PM »
Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

As long as users post data ir's ok. Maybe not always useful but no harm. Thanks to all who make the effort.

JAXA Extent -Comparisons with other years

With Juan having a bit of a rest (I hope - he certainly deserves one**) while others take up the slack, I attach my not-as-good-as-Juan's table of variations of Jaxa extent c.f. previous years from 2000.

I also attach another not-as-good-as-Juan's table, this one showing extent on this day c.f. previous years MINIMA from 2000. As extent diminishes 2020 will slide down the table.
___________________________________________
** Juan can't go to bed until the JAXA data arrives, and sometimes it doesn't..
Me, I can yawn, scratch my arse, get up, have a coffee or 3 and only then wake my laptop up.

Thank you all for your comments. The true is that it is hard to be the one that has the job to post 10 or 15 minutes after ADS makes public their data. Sometimes I want to go to bed earlier and sometimes I am doing other stuff and I have to leave it, just because it is the time to post. So, sometimes I just want to skip the post.

Yesterday I was watching Netflix with my wife and I have to stop watching, to make the post 15 minutes later than usual. In a way, it was a relief to saw the posts of Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny (*). I decided to return to watch TV. I think there is not harm if I don't post every single day.

So, thank you, Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny.

I understand the excitement that we have now, with all the records that are being broken. I share this excitement, so, as it is said on boxing, I am not throwing the towel. I will look to continue posting.

If I haven't made the post in 15 minutes after the JAXA data has been released, please feel free to make the post.
 
________________________
(*) P.S. A great relief that there was not a century drop...  :)

152
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: July 24, 2020, 11:32:46 PM »
Interesting article about strategies to respond to the increasing threat of heavy precipitation. Not really something new, but I think that it is worth to read.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/could-leaving-room-for-the-river-help-protect-communities-from-floods/

153
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 05:00:34 PM »
Beaufort thinning out already. Big block in the middle 'pulverised'
amsr2-uhh, jul12-22 click

July 18-22.

2019.

Great GIF's as always!
Thank you, both!  :)

154
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2020, 05:33:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2020: -926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

155
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 01:46:31 AM »
1st-highly unlikely
2nd- good chance but weather will need a spell of favourable melt conditions at some stage
3rd or lower - quite possible if weather stays favourable for ice retention.
With one million km2 difference between 2010's average and 2020 (JAXA numbers that are more accurate than NSIDC on the last 10 years), I discard the 3rd place.

From now, still more chance of 2nd than 1st, but I think that the ice is not in good shape. I am concerned about Chukchi and Beaufort.  Last Bremen image doesn’t look good. It can be just noise. We have to wait for the other images on July.

At the end, it will be just a flip of a coin, depending on weather. If a GAC develops on the first 10 days of August on the right place, 1st place will be more likely.

156
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 22, 2020, 05:35:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 21st, 2020:
     6,234,092 km2, an almost century drop of -99,785 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

And almost 1M km2 difference between 2020 & 2010 Average.

157
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 21, 2020, 08:16:40 AM »
ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)
A quick look to minimums:

On July 20th, the year 2020 has already pass the minimum of 18 years (and there is more than one month and a half to the end of the melting season).

158
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 21, 2020, 05:33:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 20th, 2020:
     6,333,877 km2, a century drop of -114,342 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

159
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2020, 05:38:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 19th, 2020:
     6,448,219 km2, a century drop of -103,003 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

160
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2020, 02:31:53 AM »
Since that chart was released 7 years have passed without the 2012 record being broken.  A new release of CMIP models has seen a more aggressive prediction of Arctic Ice loss.  My best effort to update the chart to 2019 data is:
I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":

161
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: July 20, 2020, 02:29:19 AM »
Since that chart was released 7 years have passed without the 2012 record being broken.  A new release of CMIP models has seen a more aggressive prediction of Arctic Ice loss.  My best effort to update the chart to 2019 data is:

162
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: July 20, 2020, 02:24:41 AM »
Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?
Here are the ADS (JAXA) numbers for all the years (1st. attachment).

It is interesting 2006, that was a very bad year on May, June and the first half of July, but it stopped the strong melting afterwards. 2020 will have 4.24M km2 at the end of the melting season, if it follows the melting of 2006.

Comparing 2005 and 2006, 2005 was the September lowest on record at his time and 2006 was in the path of being the new lowest on record, before it stopped its fast melting (2nd. attachment, NSIDC Graph).

As an anecdote, -in my opinion- 2005 & 2006 were the years that made some scientists think that the IPCC models were very conservative. They published their study on 2007, but it was before the huge melting of the 2007 summer. Of course, after the melt of 2007, this study and specially the graph, became famous.

I miss this graph, that compares the IPCC models with the real values (3rd. & 4th. attachments). I hope they will have it again to evaluate the new models (Sounds hard, but it is a fact to me: I don't trust the old & new IPCC models, if I don't have this graph to show how they really work).

This study was:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Julienne Stroeve,1 Marika M. Holland,2 Walt Meier,1 Ted Scambos,1 and Mark Serreze1
Received 15 February 2007; accepted 26 March 2007; published 1 May 2007.

P.S. The years in yellow have not ADS (JAXA) official data. Average used.

P.S. [2] I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":

163
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2020, 12:06:06 AM »
Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?
Here are the ADS (JAXA) numbers for all the years (1st. attachment).

It is interesting 2006, that was a very bad year on May, June and the first half of July, but it stopped the strong melting afterwards. 2020 will have 4.24M km2 at the end of the melting season, if it follows the melting of 2006.

Comparing 2005 and 2006, 2005 was the September lowest on record at his time and 2006 was in the path of being the new lowest on record, before it stopped its fast melting (2nd. attachment, NSIDC Graph).

As an anecdote, -in my opinion- 2005 & 2006 were the years that made some scientists think that the IPCC models were very conservative. They published their study on 2007, but it was before the huge melting of the 2007 summer. Of course, after the melt of 2007, this study and specially the graph, became famous.

I miss this graph, that compares the IPCC models with the real values (3rd. & 4th. attachments). I hope they will have it again to evaluate the new models (Sounds hard, but it is a fact to me: I don't trust the old & new IPCC models, if I don't have this graph to show how they really work).

This study was:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Julienne Stroeve,1 Marika M. Holland,2 Walt Meier,1 Ted Scambos,1 and Mark Serreze1
Received 15 February 2007; accepted 26 March 2007; published 1 May 2007.

P.S. The years in yellow have not ADS (JAXA) official data. Average used.

P.S. [2] I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":

164
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:24:42 PM »
Juan C, what outcome do we get if we use the most conservative historical numbers from now and onward? Where would that minimum end up in terms of SIE?
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,551,222 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2020

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.35 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

In every year since 2007 remaining melt results in an extent below 4 million km2.

For a record low remaining melt needs to be 5.5% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018
Gerontocrat analyzes the years 2007-2019 on his table (the latest 13 years). According to his latest post, the maximum that we can have is 3.89M km2, if 2020 lose the same ASI than 2013/2014.

165
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 19, 2020, 05:39:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 18th, 2020:
     6,551,222 km2, a century drop of -124,140 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

166
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 08:45:10 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1284350565825175555
...
i was just looking over at the numbers thread...and the difference between 2020 and 2nd place is about the same delta as 2nd place from 9th place.
The 2020 line is currently where I'd project the "2020's" average to be, so this decade, 5 years may be worse and 5 years better.
What strikes me is that the latest difference between this year and 2010's average is 902K km2. A huge difference and I think that it will be closer to a million in a couple of days.
As Friv says, it is insane!
Almost 700K km2 against 2012. Wow!

167
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 06:06:54 AM »
... that heat blast into the ESS has toned up a bit more...

Latest has warm Asian air almost reaching Greenland via the Noth Pole. :o (850hPa)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/07/21/0000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-246.75,83.14,919/loc=-80.755,85.357

At the surface, 20-30km/hr, long fetch, driving straight into the Laptev bite with SST already 1C at 80 N. Ever seen bees wax melt?
It seems that we are going to have a spike of Greenland ice melt for a couple of days.
It is going to be interesting to follow Greenland charts.
Thanks for the information. Great post also.  :)

168
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 18, 2020, 05:37:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 17th, 2020:
     6,675,362 km2, a century drop of -145,203 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

169
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:36:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 16th, 2020:
     6,820,565 km2, a century drop of -145,352 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

170
I looked at the data and my tables, somewhat stunned. A minimum of 3.5 million km2 with average remaining melt?

<snip>

On average 65.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 61 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.

I'm going with 3.5-4sqMm. I would be genuinely surprised if it went below 3.5, but it looks like above 4 is now wishful thinking.

I am going to be 'genuinely surprised', aren't I?
I also voted on the 3.5-4.0 x 10^6 km2.
And I am also going to be 'genuinely surprised' if it goes below 3.5.
But if this trend continues until the end of July, surely above 3.75 will be wishful thinking.
I am starting to think that 3.25-3.75 x 10^6 km2 is the right place to be and it could go lower than that.  :o
Let's wait to see what happens to Beaufort in the next 3 weeks.

Edit:
By "if this trend continues until the end of July" I mean that Gerontocrat forecast is 3.5 x 10^6 km2 right now. I wonder if it will be the same on July 31st.
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2,

171
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 16, 2020, 05:31:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km2, a century drop of -151,088 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

172
Thanks for running the poll, Juan.  How about another one in a week or so?  I bet the predictions will lean towards even lower values...
The tradition has been to have one poll [on extent & area] each month: June, July and August.
So I will make the last poll on August 1st.

But anyone can make comments in this poll, until we have the next one.

173
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:11:47 PM »
That model does not like ice.
  :D ...  :o ...   :(

It seems that the discussion from now on will be if 2020 will be "just?" 2nd lowest or it is able to become the lowest on record.

174
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2020, 06:26:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

A long way for 2020, to become the lowest on record...
Will it make it?

175
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2020, 05:32:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 14th, 2020:
     7,117,005 km2, a drop of -186,534 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

176
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:38:40 AM »
So is the consensus that the sea ice will end up like 2012 but with the edges severely trimmed? A record low with a lot of ice free ocean but no Blue Ocean Event?
Normaly, the consensus is not to have a consensus...  ;)
But maybe we can agree [on a forecast] after August 15th...

As Shakespeare might say: Have a GAC or not have a GAC!

177
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:09:20 AM »
July 13th, 2020

7,303,539 km2

A loss of -144,613 km2

The lowest on record for the date, per JAXA.
Thank you, Jacobus.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 13th, 2020:
     7,303,539 km2, a drop of -144,613 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

178
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 13, 2020, 05:39:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 12th, 2020:
     7,448,152 km2, a drop of -79,277 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

179
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 13, 2020, 05:20:12 AM »
3 more weeks & getting there
There we are!!!
Time to take the kayak!!!

180
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2020, 06:27:11 AM »
Here is a yearly extent comparison since 2000 for the period each year from June 27 - July 10 using NSIDC data. 
I made the same analysis using ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA) DATA.
From June 28th [1st 2020 century drop on JAXA] to July 11th.
My surprises: 2013 is the year with the biggest average drop & 2016 is the 16th.

The order could change a little. On the years 1979-1986, there are some years with no data on those days. I didn't make an average, I just erased those years without data.
 

181
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2020, 05:42:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 11th, 2020:
     7,527,429 km2, a century drop of -134,180 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

182
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2020, 05:43:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 10th, 2020:
     7,661,609 km2, a drop of -96,893 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

183
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 11, 2020, 04:31:24 AM »
Just a reminder:
July deadline for challenge entries is midnight on July 11th UK time, some 23 hours after the polls close.

Please quote your June entry (if any) in your July entry.
;)

184
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2020, 05:43:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 8th, 2020:
     7,862,234 km2, a century drop of -138,925 km2.

July 9th, 2020:
     7,758,502 km2, a century drop of -103,732 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

185
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 09, 2020, 05:37:50 AM »
Seems like the ads.nipr.ac.jp website is offline, will check again soon to see if it's online.
Yes, it is also happening to me. I will try to post later...

Edit:

The ADS server has been out of order for more than 40 minutes. It is time for me to go to bed.
I appreciate if someone else post the data.

Thanks.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2nd Edit:

A message from ADS:

186
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)

187
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)

188
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)

189
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: July 08, 2020, 09:07:40 PM »

190
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 07:56:24 PM »
And I still think that the lack of airplane aerosols is worsening the impact of the GAAC.

191
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 07:44:54 PM »
GAAC

Great Arctic Anti Cyclone

Has it occurred before?
I would bet that it has happened before. But it is worse with the actual ice conditions.
The problem now is that a GAAC can kill a large part of the ice. An a GAC will do the same job. Both are terrible: the ice is vulnerable either way.
The 2020 timing can also be very bad. A GAAC in the begginning of July is very bad, a GAC later will be worst.

192
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2020, 05:52:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 7th, 2020:
     8,001,159 km2, a century drop of -179,077 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

193
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:15:39 PM »
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
July poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 HC (High confidence)
July poll for NSIDC: 3.75-4.25M km2 HC (High confidence)
July poll for PIOMAS: 3.75-4.25K km3 HC (High confidence)

194
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2
I changed my vote one bin down, to 3.75-4.25M km2.

195
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3
I changed my vote one bin down, to 3.75-4.25K km3

196
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:05:54 PM »
Compaction is a strong extent killer and makes for big headlines. The more important questions at this stage are what happens with area - which also dropping fast, and especially volume/thickness - which one can only imagine is breaking some daily records.
I note that wind-induced Fram export has not started yet. The smaller Nares is already half empty and racing for the exit.
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,142,884 KM2         
Sea ice area loss on this day 113 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 105 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 522 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,193 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 324 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 72 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 101 k less than 2012

2020 is the lowest in extent (according to ADS JAXA by 221K km2 against 2016 [2nd lowest]) and it is also the lowest in area.
It doesn't look good at all!

197
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:17:50 AM »
It seems that the high pressure system and the lack of aerosols are adding up. It is going to be an interesting second half of the melting season.
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:
     8,180,236 km2, an almost double century drop of -194,704 km2:o

198
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:11:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:
     8,180,236 km2, an almost double century drop of -194,704 km2:o
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

199
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:47:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:

It seems that the ADS server is not working.
I have 3 options of internet connection and I haven't been able to connect in anyone of them.     

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. It is working now. Soon I will post.

200
Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: July 06, 2020, 07:37:30 PM »
And I think that NSIDC will use a new satellite too.
It is just that will have new capabilities. Not like the 40 years old satellites...

Could ICESAT-2 replace the traditional NSIDC stats?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=kanl64Yx5VI&feature=emb_logo

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