Messages

51

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?

« on: July 27, 2020, 05:06:58 PM »

I've been thinking about what should be the demand for shipments crossing the Arctic, given the economic crisis generated by COVID 19. There has to be some demand, but surely not as much as in recent years.

Without demand, the ship may choose to take a safe route, rather than the Arctic routes.

I voted for August 1 to August 15, a few days ago ...

Besides... Going through the arctic is the ultimate in social distancing. 

It is not important, but you really make me laugh!!! 
The other arguments are good.

52

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 27, 2020, 02:27:27 PM »

[Maybe today news is only this image and what it represents...

Are you hinting at something? Because I'm not following. But I don't spend that much time here.

<See Friv's post above. O>

July 22-26.

2019.

On my point of view, the storm is going to be very harmful to the ice. The slowdown in the ice melted is expected and, in a way, it is bad that we still have a drop on extent. In the Bremen image that I post (I post it again here), we can immediately see that the ice is losing concentration and we start to see an ice hole on the Beaufort Sea. This damage on Beaufort will increase on the following days.

Thanks to the great gif of Aluminium, we can also see that we are losing extent on the Atlantic side, while the ice is moving to the previous warm waters on the Russian side.

On the Nullschool pictures, I find that there is a lot of heat stored in the Arctic and there is a lot of heat entering from both Oceans: the Pacific and the Atlantic. There is also heat on the Canadian Archipelago and on the Russian side. The winds on the Atlantic side are favoring melt and compactness there. The winds are also moving the ice on the Greenland Sea into the Atlantic. On the other hand, the storm is bringing heat from the Pacific side to Beaufort. An moving the ice to warm waters on the Russian side. So, not doubt, these days are going to be an ice killer.

I expect a slowdown on the melt on the following days, but not too much. Then, other century drops. At the beginning of August, 2020 will continue to be the leader being the lowest by far. We will have to wait to the end of August to see how 2020 is performing against 2012, but I think the storm will help 2020 to possibly make a new lowest record.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-67.66,95.15,690

53

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 27, 2020, 05:54:31 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 26^th, 2020:
     5,962,825 km², a drop of -31,737 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Maybe today news is only this image and what it represents...

54

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 27, 2020, 05:31:51 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 26^th, 2020:
     5,962,825 km², a drop of -31,737 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

55

Consequences / Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice

« on: July 26, 2020, 07:47:48 PM »

There is talk of a Gompertz curve in the loss of Arctic sea ice. I think we are now approaching the end of the curve in the ASI volume lost. There will be a start for other Gompertz curves on various tracks (by example, the melting of the permafrost). I am particularly concerned about the acceleration that we will surely have in rising sea levels.

It has been absurd to focus the UN reactions and scientific studies on 2100, 2200 or longer periods. We cannot lose the coastal cities and we are seeing that is happening right now. So, finally we will see reactions from governments and also from private companies. I know: the human's reaction should be 50 years ago, but we will have it in 2020-2030. I hope this reaction will be strong, so I wonder what will happen in the next ten years. On the other hand, I also know that there are already several damages generated.

So, we know the problems that we will face. But the "Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice" is finally looking for solutions. We do not know the solutions that we can implement in a decade. Let's wait and see.

56

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?

« on: July 26, 2020, 06:47:54 PM »

Something, probably not a small vessel, is there already.

Intriguing. Nothing is shown on MarineTraffic etc. any closer than Resolute as far as I can ascertain:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-105.5/centery:72.5/zoom:4

Something "top secret" perchance?

I've been thinking about what should be the demand for shipments crossing the Arctic, given the economic crisis generated by COVID 19. There has to be some demand, but surely not as much as in recent years.

Without demand, the ship may choose to take a safe route, rather than the Arctic routes.

I voted for August 1 to August 15, a few days ago ...

57

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 26, 2020, 05:35:43 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 25^th, 2020:
     5,994,562 km², a drop of -47,550 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

58

Glaciers / Re: Vavilov Ice Cap - Severnaya Zemlya

« on: July 25, 2020, 07:15:35 PM »

I found this video. You may find useful information there.

59

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 25, 2020, 06:09:49 AM »

And a small cyclone that brings heat and winds to Beaufort, in 3 days.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/07/28/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-177.08,69.89,601/loc=-127.316,80.338

60

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 25, 2020, 05:58:56 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24^th, 2020:
     6,042,112 km², a small drop of -5,029 km².
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

It seems that the small drop means that we are losing compactness. It is not good news. Ice can come into contact with warm water. At the end, more melt will happen.
Image: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

61

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 25, 2020, 05:37:42 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24^th, 2020:
     6,042,112 km², a small drop of -5,029 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

62

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 24, 2020, 11:57:39 PM »

Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

As long as users post data ir's ok. Maybe not always useful but no harm. Thanks to all who make the effort.

JAXA Extent -Comparisons with other years

With Juan having a bit of a rest (I hope - he certainly deserves one**) while others take up the slack, I attach my not-as-good-as-Juan's table of variations of Jaxa extent c.f. previous years from 2000.

I also attach another not-as-good-as-Juan's table, this one showing extent on this day c.f. previous years MINIMA from 2000. As extent diminishes 2020 will slide down the table.
___________________________________________
** Juan can't go to bed until the JAXA data arrives, and sometimes it doesn't..
Me, I can yawn, scratch my arse, get up, have a coffee or 3 and only then wake my laptop up.

Thank you all for your comments. The true is that it is hard to be the one that has the job to post 10 or 15 minutes after ADS makes public their data. Sometimes I want to go to bed earlier and sometimes I am doing other stuff and I have to leave it, just because it is the time to post. So, sometimes I just want to skip the post.

Yesterday I was watching Netflix with my wife and I have to stop watching, to make the post 15 minutes later than usual. In a way, it was a relief to saw the posts of Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny (*). I decided to return to watch TV. I think there is not harm if I don't post every single day.

So, thank you, Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny.

I understand the excitement that we have now, with all the records that are being broken. I share this excitement, so, as it is said on boxing, I am not throwing the towel. I will look to continue posting.

If I haven't made the post in 15 minutes after the JAXA data has been released, please feel free to make the post.
 
________________________
(*) P.S. A great relief that there was not a century drop... 

63

Consequences / Re: Floods

« on: July 24, 2020, 11:32:46 PM »

Interesting article about strategies to respond to the increasing threat of heavy precipitation. Not really something new, but I think that it is worth to read.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/could-leaving-room-for-the-river-help-protect-communities-from-floods/

64

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 23, 2020, 05:00:34 PM »

Beaufort thinning out already. Big block in the middle 'pulverised'
amsr2-uhh, jul12-22 click

July 18-22.

2019.

Great GIF's as always!
Thank you, both! 

65

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 23, 2020, 05:33:06 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22^nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km², a century drop of -117,789 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2020: -926K km² versus 2012.   

66

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 23, 2020, 01:46:31 AM »

1st-highly unlikely
2nd- good chance but weather will need a spell of favourable melt conditions at some stage
3rd or lower - quite possible if weather stays favourable for ice retention.

With one million km2 difference between 2010's average and 2020 (JAXA numbers that are more accurate than NSIDC on the last 10 years), I discard the 3rd place.

From now, still more chance of 2nd than 1st, but I think that the ice is not in good shape. I am concerned about Chukchi and Beaufort.  Last Bremen image doesn’t look good. It can be just noise. We have to wait for the other images on July.

At the end, it will be just a flip of a coin, depending on weather. If a GAC develops on the first 10 days of August on the right place, 1st place will be more likely.

67

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 22, 2020, 05:35:06 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 21^st, 2020:
     6,234,092 km², an almost century drop of -99,785 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

And almost 1M km² difference between 2020 & 2010 Average.

68

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 21, 2020, 08:16:40 AM »

ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)
A quick look to minimums:

On July 20th, the year 2020 has already pass the minimum of 18 years (and there is more than one month and a half to the end of the melting season).

69

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 21, 2020, 05:33:44 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 20^th, 2020:
     6,333,877 km², a century drop of -114,342 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

70

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 20, 2020, 05:38:27 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 19^th, 2020:
     6,448,219 km², a century drop of -103,003 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

71

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 20, 2020, 02:31:53 AM »

Since that chart was released 7 years have passed without the 2012 record being broken.  A new release of CMIP models has seen a more aggressive prediction of Arctic Ice loss.  My best effort to update the chart to 2019 data is:

I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":

72

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary

« on: July 20, 2020, 02:29:19 AM »

Since that chart was released 7 years have passed without the 2012 record being broken.  A new release of CMIP models has seen a more aggressive prediction of Arctic Ice loss.  My best effort to update the chart to 2019 data is:

73

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary

« on: July 20, 2020, 02:24:41 AM »

Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?

Here are the ADS (JAXA) numbers for all the years (1st. attachment).

It is interesting 2006, that was a very bad year on May, June and the first half of July, but it stopped the strong melting afterwards. 2020 will have 4.24M km2 at the end of the melting season, if it follows the melting of 2006.

Comparing 2005 and 2006, 2005 was the September lowest on record at his time and 2006 was in the path of being the new lowest on record, before it stopped its fast melting (2nd. attachment, NSIDC Graph).

As an anecdote, -in my opinion- 2005 & 2006 were the years that made some scientists think that the IPCC models were very conservative. They published their study on 2007, but it was before the huge melting of the 2007 summer. Of course, after the melt of 2007, this study and specially the graph, became famous.

I miss this graph, that compares the IPCC models with the real values (3rd. & 4th. attachments). I hope they will have it again to evaluate the new models (Sounds hard, but it is a fact to me: I don't trust the old & new IPCC models, if I don't have this graph to show how they really work).

This study was:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Julienne Stroeve,1 Marika M. Holland,2 Walt Meier,1 Ted Scambos,1 and Mark Serreze1
Received 15 February 2007; accepted 26 March 2007; published 1 May 2007.

P.S. The years in yellow have not ADS (JAXA) official data. Average used.

P.S. [2] I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":

74

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 20, 2020, 12:06:06 AM »

Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?

Here are the ADS (JAXA) numbers for all the years (1st. attachment).

It is interesting 2006, that was a very bad year on May, June and the first half of July, but it stopped the strong melting afterwards. 2020 will have 4.24M km2 at the end of the melting season, if it follows the melting of 2006.

Comparing 2005 and 2006, 2005 was the September lowest on record at his time and 2006 was in the path of being the new lowest on record, before it stopped its fast melting (2nd. attachment, NSIDC Graph).

As an anecdote, -in my opinion- 2005 & 2006 were the years that made some scientists think that the IPCC models were very conservative. They published their study on 2007, but it was before the huge melting of the 2007 summer. Of course, after the melt of 2007, this study and specially the graph, became famous.

I miss this graph, that compares the IPCC models with the real values (3rd. & 4th. attachments). I hope they will have it again to evaluate the new models (Sounds hard, but it is a fact to me: I don't trust the old & new IPCC models, if I don't have this graph to show how they really work).

This study was:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Julienne Stroeve,1 Marika M. Holland,2 Walt Meier,1 Ted Scambos,1 and Mark Serreze1
Received 15 February 2007; accepted 26 March 2007; published 1 May 2007.

P.S. The years in yellow have not ADS (JAXA) official data. Average used.

P.S. [2] I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":

75

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 19, 2020, 08:24:42 PM »

Juan C, what outcome do we get if we use the most conservative historical numbers from now and onward? Where would that minimum end up in terms of SIE?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,551,222 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2020

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.35 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

In every year since 2007 remaining melt results in an extent below 4 million km2.

For a record low remaining melt needs to be 5.5% or more above average, as happened with remaining melt in 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018

Gerontocrat analyzes the years 2007-2019 on his table (the latest 13 years). According to his latest post, the maximum that we can have is 3.89M km2, if 2020 lose the same ASI than 2013/2014.

76

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 19, 2020, 05:39:40 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 18^th, 2020:
     6,551,222 km², a century drop of -124,140 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

77

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 18, 2020, 08:45:10 PM »

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1284350565825175555
...
i was just looking over at the numbers thread...and the difference between 2020 and 2nd place is about the same delta as 2nd place from 9th place.

The 2020 line is currently where I'd project the "2020's" average to be, so this decade, 5 years may be worse and 5 years better.

What strikes me is that the latest difference between this year and 2010's average is 902K km². A huge difference and I think that it will be closer to a million in a couple of days.
As Friv says, it is insane!
Almost 700K km² against 2012. Wow!

78

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 18, 2020, 06:06:54 AM »

... that heat blast into the ESS has toned up a bit more...

Latest has warm Asian air almost reaching Greenland via the Noth Pole. (850hPa)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/07/21/0000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-246.75,83.14,919/loc=-80.755,85.357

At the surface, 20-30km/hr, long fetch, driving straight into the Laptev bite with SST already 1C at 80 N. Ever seen bees wax melt?

It seems that we are going to have a spike of Greenland ice melt for a couple of days.
It is going to be interesting to follow Greenland charts.
Thanks for the information. Great post also. 

79

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 18, 2020, 05:37:43 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 17^th, 2020:
     6,675,362 km², a century drop of -145,203 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

80

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 17, 2020, 05:36:48 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 16^th, 2020:
     6,820,565 km², a century drop of -145,352 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

81

Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll

« on: July 16, 2020, 04:56:21 PM »

I looked at the data and my tables, somewhat stunned. A minimum of 3.5 million km2 with average remaining melt?

<snip>

On average 65.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 61 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.

I'm going with 3.5-4sqMm. I would be genuinely surprised if it went below 3.5, but it looks like above 4 is now wishful thinking.

I am going to be 'genuinely surprised', aren't I?

I also voted on the 3.5-4.0 x 10^6 km².
And I am also going to be 'genuinely surprised' if it goes below 3.5.
But if this trend continues until the end of July, surely above 3.75 will be wishful thinking.
I am starting to think that 3.25-3.75 x 10^6 km² is the right place to be and it could go lower than that. 
Let's wait to see what happens to Beaufort in the next 3 weeks.

Edit:
By "if this trend continues until the end of July" I mean that Gerontocrat forecast is 3.5 x 10^6 km² right now. I wonder if it will be the same on July 31^st.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2,

82

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 16, 2020, 05:31:59 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15^th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km², a century drop of -151,088 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

83

Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll

« on: July 16, 2020, 01:42:34 AM »

Thanks for running the poll, Juan.  How about another one in a week or so?  I bet the predictions will lean towards even lower values...

The tradition has been to have one poll [on extent & area] each month: June, July and August.
So I will make the last poll on August 1st.

But anyone can make comments in this poll, until we have the next one.

84

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 15, 2020, 09:11:47 PM »

That model does not like ice.

  ...  ...   

It seems that the discussion from now on will be if 2020 will be "just?" 2nd lowest or it is able to become the lowest on record.

85

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 15, 2020, 06:26:55 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

A long way for 2020, to become the lowest on record...
Will it make it?

86

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 15, 2020, 05:32:18 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 14^th, 2020:
     7,117,005 km², a drop of -186,534 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

87

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 14, 2020, 06:38:40 AM »

So is the consensus that the sea ice will end up like 2012 but with the edges severely trimmed? A record low with a lot of ice free ocean but no Blue Ocean Event?

Normaly, the consensus is not to have a consensus... 
But maybe we can agree [on a forecast] after August 15^th...

As Shakespeare might say: Have a GAC or not have a GAC!

88

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 14, 2020, 06:09:20 AM »

July 13^th, 2020

7,303,539 km²

A loss of -144,613 km²

The lowest on record for the date, per JAXA.

Thank you, Jacobus. 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 13^th, 2020:
     7,303,539 km², a drop of -144,613 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

89

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 13, 2020, 05:39:41 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 12^th, 2020:
     7,448,152 km², a drop of -79,277 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

90

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread

« on: July 13, 2020, 05:20:12 AM »

3 more weeks & getting there

There we are!!!
Time to take the kayak!!!

91

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 12, 2020, 06:27:11 AM »

Here is a yearly extent comparison since 2000 for the period each year from June 27 - July 10 using NSIDC data. 

I made the same analysis using ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA) DATA.
From June 28^th [1^st 2020 century drop on JAXA] to July 11^th.
My surprises: 2013 is the year with the biggest average drop & 2016 is the 16^th.

The order could change a little. On the years 1979-1986, there are some years with no data on those days. I didn't make an average, I just erased those years without data.
 

92

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 12, 2020, 05:42:21 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 11^th, 2020:
     7,527,429 km², a century drop of -134,180 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

93

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 11, 2020, 05:43:04 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 10^th, 2020:
     7,661,609 km², a drop of -96,893 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

94

Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020

« on: July 11, 2020, 04:31:24 AM »

Just a reminder:

July deadline for challenge entries is midnight on July 11th UK time, some 23 hours after the polls close.

Please quote your June entry (if any) in your July entry.

95

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 10, 2020, 05:43:43 AM »

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 8^th, 2020:
     7,862,234 km², a century drop of -138,925 km².

July 9^th, 2020:
     7,758,502 km², a century drop of -103,732 km².
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

96

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 09, 2020, 05:37:50 AM »

Seems like the ads.nipr.ac.jp website is offline, will check again soon to see if it's online.

Yes, it is also happening to me. I will try to post later...

Edit:

The ADS server has been out of order for more than 40 minutes. It is time for me to go to bed.
I appreciate if someone else post the data.

Thanks.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2nd Edit:

A message from ADS:

97

Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll

« on: July 09, 2020, 02:15:33 AM »

Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast! 

98

Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll

« on: July 09, 2020, 02:15:11 AM »

Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast! 

99

Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Volume September Average: July poll

« on: July 09, 2020, 02:14:47 AM »

Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast! 

100

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution

« on: July 08, 2020, 09:07:40 PM »