Messages

1

Consequences / Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences

« on: June 27, 2020, 04:12:47 PM »

As at 26 June 2020,

- The NASDAQ Composite Index is 22% higher than a year ago,

- The S & P 500 Index is 2.3% higher than a year ago,

- The DJ 30 index is still 6% lower than a year ago.

The 30 stocks which make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average are:
3M, American Express, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cisco, Coca-Cola, Disney, Dow, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, McDonald’s, Merck, Microsoft, Nike, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Raytheon Technologies, Unitedhealth, Verizon, Visa, Walgreens, and Walmart.

I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.

I decided to go short on the market Thursday after seeing the scenes at bounemouth beach.  The market is insanely overvalued for the state we are in.

2

Consequences / Re: Global recession

« on: April 10, 2020, 10:58:28 PM »

Trump Has “Big Talk” With Putin, Saudi King Salman About Oil
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Has-Big-Talk-With-Putin-Saudi-King-Salman-About-Oil.html

U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a “big talk” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi King Salman regarding oil production, expressing hopes that a deal on the control of said production would be announced soon.

“We had a big talk as to oil production and OPEC and making it so that our industry does well and the oil industry does better than its doing right now,” Trump said as quoted by Reuters.

--------------------------

They got the global 10M bpd cut deal done today at the G20.  Mexico backed out thursday saying they wouldn't cut 400,000 bpd.  Today Trump convinced them to cut 100,000 and the US would make up the difference cutting 250,000-300,000 bpd.

I loaded up some oil stocks late Thursday in anticipation of this getting done after market hours.  Oil is heading back up and will probably stabilize between 28-30 (WTI price).   

3

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 24, 2020, 11:47:37 AM »

Spain in now using an Ice rink as a temporary morgue.  I work at a 3 sheet ice arena in New Jersey and was just started the process of taking out 2 sheets of ice to cut down on energy costs while the business is shut down.  I can tell you that we are not the only ones taking out their ice right now. 

4

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 23, 2020, 06:45:52 PM »

NYC...line for emergency rooms...

Nope.  That is a line for a testing facility, not for ER.

5

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 23, 2020, 01:56:00 AM »

Pandemics seem to bring out the crazies.  Multiple reports of people showing up to people's houses in hazmat suits and as soon as you open the door they bust in and rob you. This has happened in Bergen County, NJ and Rockland County, NY.

6

Consequences / Re: Global recession

« on: March 11, 2020, 05:40:36 PM »

W.H.O declares pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk/h_0cc7fc92661bca767fbee35c5e5fedd1

I suspect the market to have a sell off in the second half of today.

7

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 11, 2020, 05:34:01 PM »

W.H.O finally declares a pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk/h_0cc7fc92661bca767fbee35c5e5fedd1

8

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 09, 2020, 09:34:32 PM »

Talk about very quick KARMA

Florida congressman says he came into contact with coronavirus patient
From CNN White House team

Rep. Matt Gaetz, who just returned to Washington from Florida traveling aboard Air Force One with President Trump, just tweeted that he "was informed today that he came into contact with a CPAC attendee 11 days ago who tested positive for COVID-19."

In a series of tweets, Gaetz's official account said, "While the Congressman is not experiencing symptoms, he received testing today and expects results soon. Under doctor's usual precautionary recommendations, he'll remain self-quarantined until the 14-day period expires this week."

And Gaetz's accounted also noted that his Washington office will be closed during this time. His Pensacola office will stay open.

Pool reporters also traveling aboard the presidential aircraft said they saw Gaetz disembarking from a separate entrance to the plane than the President, which is customary for most travelers aside from the President and his tight entourage. 

CNN has asked the White House for reaction to the announcement. 

This was the same congressman that wore a gas mask to the voting of the COVID-19 funding bill.

9

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 09, 2020, 08:19:25 PM »

Only one thing really matters during a pandemic.

I don't really understand the panic. We use about 1 roll per day for the 4 of us. So these people will have monthes of toilet paper at home.  The only thing that really worried me was dog food because you can't feed them with whatever is available, and I feel that with one month available it should be ok.

At some point FOMO takes over as it is part of human nature.  The first batch of people buying toilet paper were mostly likely prepping for quarantines.  Once the news started reporting on it FOMO became unleashed, leading to panic buying.

This actually forced me to buy an extra case of baby wipes last week as i can seeing people turning to those when they can't buy TP.   I need the wipes because of my 1 year old at home.  I can say that the diaper and wipe section at Buy Buy Baby looked really bare.

10

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 09, 2020, 06:54:29 PM »

"We are not at the mercy of this virus," WHO director says

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, said the threat of a pandemic due to coronavirus "has become very real" as the virus continues to spread around the world.

"Now that the coronavirus has a foothold in so many countries, the threat of a pandemic has become very real. But it would be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled. The bottom line is: We are not at the mercy of this virus,” Tedros said Monday.
"This is an uneven epidemic at the global level. Different countries are in different scenarios, requiring a tailored response. It’s not about containment or mitigation – which is a false dichotomy. It’s about both,” Tedros added, all countries must take a “comprehensive blended strategy” for controlling their own epidemics.

What each country does to control the spread of novel coronavirus, “can also affect what happens in other countries and globally,” Tedros said.

Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, addressed the issue of a pandemic, saying the principle definition is that the disease has reached a point where it cannot be controlled, adding “if this was influenza, we would have called it ages ago," Ryan said.

W.H.O. is a JOKE!!!!!

So much of that does not make sense.

1st - Good luck controlling a virus that has an incubation period of 14-28 days.  That alone makes containment next to impossible.

2nd - Trump has not only put our country at great risk, but also the rest of the world by not having testing ready.  It's inexcusable that we were and still are so behind in testing for this virus.

3rd-  A Pandemic Is Declared
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.



What the actual FUCK?!?!   This screams smoke and mirrors to me!!

11

Consequences / Re: Global recession

« on: March 09, 2020, 03:18:43 PM »

Yup, crazy sh!t goin' down:

It is the most crude price-bearish combination since the early 1930s. The price collapse has just begun

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/shockwave-of-oil-price-crash-slams-markets-sending-stocks-around-the-world-plummeting

Italy’s FTSE MIB lost more than a tenth of its value ...

https://www.ft.com/content/8273a32a-61e4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at US asset manager Pimco, said a recession in the US and the eurozone in the first half of the year was now “a distinct possibility” and that Japan was “very likely” already in one.

Nearly all the stock market gains since Trump became president have been wiped out...they were all an illusion

Didn't take a genius to see how over inflated the market was.  Just wait until major supply chains get ruptured.  A bottleneck has already appeared and if things continue like this, we will most likely see the DJI fall below 20,000. 

12

Consequences / Re: Global recession

« on: March 09, 2020, 02:50:16 PM »

Dow Futures down 1,255 as of 8:18 EST.

Dow is in free fall this morning down over 1,800 points!!!!!!!
Over 7% down!!!

Edit:   TRADING HALTED IN THE FIRST 15 minuets!!!!

13

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 09, 2020, 02:47:29 PM »

Experience form NYC Times Square

So yesterday was my wife's birthday and I got us tickets to go see "Frozen" on broadway.  When parking at Port Authority, it seemed a little strange that there were way more parking spots than normal.  As soon as we got the the streets it was business as usual for NYC.  Still lots of people around going about their business like nothing was wrong.   Passed hundreds of people in times square and i only saw ONE person wearing a mask.

When we got to the theater, I was expecting it to not be a sold out show.  I was wrong.  Completely packed house and little kids all over the place.  While it was comforting to see other people acting like nothing was wrong, it was a little dis concerning as well.  We practiced good hygiene, brought some hand sanitizer and avoided touching handrails and door handles.

Given what I saw yesterday and what we know about this virus, I can clearly see NYC being the next epicenter in a few weeks.   There is going to be an explosion of cases here within the next month.   Stay safe and healthy everyone.

14

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 05, 2020, 10:28:13 PM »

At some point they told it came from a snake, and that made several people laugh. Not that i know why. That feeds the idea that something is'nt right.

You ain't right...in the haid.

 Go hate Trump a little bit more Shared humanity. The only reason why half of your country is not freezing to dead in winter is because of fossil feuls. And that you use a little bit less coal, is because you frack the shit out of your land. Because your wind turbines and solar panels, that's not even enough to keep up with growth. Wake up fool.

Is thread about COVID-19 or energy consumption and politics?   Let's try to keep this discuss about this virus.

15

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 05, 2020, 06:11:05 PM »

Scenario 4 .. Trump ( wisely ) declares election unsafe and awards himself 4 more years ..

While i believe that this would never happen and if it did, you would see a massive revolt in this country.

I can't firmly say that the chances of this happening are 0%.  You just never know with this guy.

16

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 05, 2020, 05:29:25 PM »

Thanks Bernard, that's helpful.

---------------------------------

Meanwhile, from crazyland ...

Donald Trump has said that, as a result of a hunch, he didn’t believe the World Health Organization’s assessment of the global death rate from coronavirus of 3.4%.

“I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” he told Sean Hannity, one of his favourite conservative Fox News hosts, in a phone interview broadcast live.

“Now, this is just my hunch,” Trump began, before continuing: “Based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this, and it’s very mild – they’ll get better very rapidly, they don’t even see a doctor, they don’t even call a doctor.”

He continued: “You never hear about those people, so you can’t put them down in the category of the overall population, in terms of this corona flu, and/or virus. So you just can’t do that.”

-----------------------------------

Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: "I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations ... personally, I'd say the number is way under 1%."

Astoundingly irresponsible.

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1235409660104015873

Video at link

This will go one of two ways.

Scenario 1 -  The coronovirus outbreak becomes widespread in America, but most cases remain mild.  Trump reaffirms that he was right all along and come November we get 4 more years of him.

Scenario 2 - The coronovirus outbreak becomes widespread in America, but the mortality rate remains at the level of the rest of the world, people start to wake up to how crazy trump is and he gets voted out of office in November.

There is no scenario where the outbreak does not become widespread here based on everything we know and have seen thus far.

17

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 02, 2020, 10:26:16 PM »

That did not come out of nowhere. Read some of the earlier posts about the US healthcare on this thread. Get tested for flu costs 4k$ and many can not pay that which will make the outcome worse also because of additional community spread.

Yes, to us on this thread it did not come out of nowhere, but for the general public it did. Death rate for confirmed US mainland cases is now over 10%.  And yes, the real death rate if probably much lower due to more cases out their waiting to be confirmed.

18

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 02, 2020, 09:00:48 PM »

Well this came out of nowhere!!!

Six people have died from coronavirus in Washington state

Six people have now died in Washington state from the novel coronavirus, according to health officials.

A person has died from coronavirus in Snohomish County, according to Heather Thomas, spokesperson with the Snohomish Health District. No additional details were immediately available from the health district.

Five other people have died in King County, according to Jeffrey Duchin, a public health official with the county.

19

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 02, 2020, 05:16:44 PM »

W.H.O. refuses to declare this a pandemic and their reasoning is that it doesn't appear more dangerous than influenza if terms of severity.  Lets look into when they declared a pandemic for H1N1.

A Pandemic Is Declared
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.

   

Can someone enlighten me as to WTF they are waiting for??

20

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 02, 2020, 04:19:02 PM »

GW, you're likely to be fine. Most cases are mild.

Which leads me to a question. It appears the virus has been in the wild and circulating for many weeks in the Seattle area (and possibly others). As far as I know, there has not been an uptick in hospital admissions, ER and Urgent Care visits, etc. Assuming this is true, is that comforting? Or is that region still so low down on the growth curve that those things have not happened yet.

Any thoughts?

I agree that most cases are mild and also i'm not in a high risk age bracket.  However i do have a 1 year old at home with not an advanced immune system as my wife and i have which is what gives me pause. 

Growth rate in the US will be extremely unreliable as we were way behind the rest of the world in testing for the virus.  So when we do start testing more people the growth rate will surge.

edit:  blum it happened again  . No matter how many times i re-read my post, dyslexia always gets the better of me.

21

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 02, 2020, 04:05:57 PM »

Welp....I'm fucked....

I work at one of the most trafficked, private, ice rinks on the east coast.  Every day i have my staff wipe down all the door handles, restrooms, est., but even doing that will not be enough once the virus starts to gain a foothold here.  On top of that my wife commutes into NYC 3 days a week via public transportation.

Instead of worrying about the obvious risks, we still go about our days just being more vigilant about basic hygiene.  I have all my dry goods, loads of chicken soup and a nice stash of ibuprofen.  Not much more we can do but just accept that we will probably get infected at some point and being able to handle it.

Gonna go snowboarding tomorrow to get a break from reality and put my mind more at ease, if even just for half the day.

22

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 27, 2020, 06:45:07 PM »

Good luck to anyone seeking N95 masks.  I drove all over Bergen County, NJ this morning.  4 major hardware stores sold out(3 home depot, 1 lowes) and most local hardware stores are also sold out.

The last local store I went into had some masks, but not the N95.  There was another person in the store also looking for masks and by the time we realized we were both looking for the same item, it became a race to find them.  As I'm speed walking down one end of the aisle, I can see her keeping pace on the other.  She found the section before me and before i could say anything, see grabbed every last box and went to the register.  I was about to curse her out before a worker told me they had another case in the back.

I can honestly say I have never experienced anything like that in my life, aside from black Friday, and felt it was an experience i should share here.  I really don't want to imagine what things will be like when community transmission actually begins.

23

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 26, 2020, 05:14:47 PM »

Things could get out of hand in Italy in the next 2-3 weeks.

How churches in Northern Italy are handling Ash Wednesday mass

While the Pope's Ash Wednesday mass at the church of Santa Sabina in Rome is going on as planned, other Catholic churches across Italy are modifying their services because of coronavirus.

Catholic churches in many cities in the north of Italy — such as in Bologna, Turin, and Venice — have suspended their Ash Wednesday services. Some of them are offering masses online or through local television.

Ash Wednesday is one of the most important religious days for Catholics after Christmas and Easter. It signifies the beginning of Lent, a period of six weeks before Easter when many Christians fast, abstain from meat and make a personal Lenten sacrifice to prepare themselves for Easter.

----

This seems like a disaster waiting to happen given what we already know of this virus's incubation period of 14-28 days.  It was also reported that next to no measures will be in place to reduce human contact.

24

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 26, 2020, 04:42:06 PM »

When you wake up in the morning and find out CAronavirus is trending on twitter. 


Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!
@CDCgov....

Given how angry Trump is that the CORONAVIRUS is starting to effect the markets, this tweet makes perfect sense to me.   Trump is a master illusionist.  What a better way to get peoples' attention off a growing potential pandemic, then to just get them to talk about how incompetent you look.  You don't see "COVID-19" or "Coronavirus" trending.  He is making last ditch efforts to keep the market afloat, when most of us can see what is coming. 

25

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 23, 2020, 09:23:48 PM »

In a couple weeks I am going to Niagara Falls. There should be little danger...not big crowds that time of year. In late July I am going to the Kecksburg UFO Festival, if it’s not cancelled.

I have a weekly conference in Buffalo this coming May.  Up until recently i have had every intention to go with not a worry about the virus.  I still believe i will be attending the event, but my level of optimism is dropping with each passing day. 

26

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 22, 2020, 07:05:09 PM »

"... Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic.[/b] Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate from covid-19 — roughly two out of 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread.

The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.

Whilst agreeing with your post I think we should also be mindful that the virus may mutate into something either more benign or, in the worse case scenario, a lot worse.

Better to keep an eye on how things develop eh?

Thank you for stating this, because in one of your previous posts you made it seem as if more carriers can only result in a more deadly mutation.

Things can go either way and still a lot of unknowns about this virus.  One thing i think most can agree on, at this point, is that it is highly contagious. 

27

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 20, 2020, 05:30:57 PM »

I see evidence of a visit on the 22nd of January, a month ago. I see the testimony of the WHO of how great the Chinese response was to that point. Something went terribly wrong because the resulting epidemic and this rosy outlook do not match.

My expectations of government work is that the WHO was taken to the best places and shown the best measures. The real bad sh!t was hidden from their view.

I see no evidence of current updates of the situation, the WHO presence in Wuhan or any evidence of the WHO given an updated framework of the situation. I see evidence of avoidance and censorship.

This instantly reminded me of the movie, "The Interview", where Kim Jong Un takes David Syklark to the fake fruit market with the fat kid standing outside, to show him how well his people are fed.

28

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 05, 2020, 06:00:27 PM »

Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus

I have great respect for the stupidity of national governments, but if it is getting that bad China will never be able to keep it secret and then being caught in a lie will make it ten times worse. I know the temptation to take the easy way out in the short term, but if they have succumbed to it then this is very scary.

Better off as chalking it up to someone editing that data to create fear and panic.  The recoveries is what really screams out to me as "FAKE NEWS".

We saw a lot of people posting on social media how the virus was crossed with HIV and proven to be man made, but that was quickly debunked.

I don't even look at the numbers anymore.  What i do look at, is the broader picture of what is going on.

1)China originally tried to cover this up in the middle of December by arresting 8 doctors who investigating the very first cases.  Citing they were "spreading rumors" by mentioning SARS in their findings.

2)December 31 - China investigates 27 cases of "viral pneumonia" amid online speculation that it could be linked to a SARS flu-like virus.

3)January 22 - 571 confirmed case and 17 deaths.  China suspends all outbound travel from Wuhan.

4)January 24 - China expands "quarantine" to include 13 other cities, restricting travel to over 40 million people.  USA issues travel warning level 4 for Wuhan.

5)January 26 - USA and France announce plans to evacuate nationals out of Wuhan (multiple counties follow this lead in the following days)

6) January 31 - USA issues level 4 travel warning for all of China just the day after the WHO finally declared the virus a Public health emergency of international concern. 

Let's stop here and discuss the events that took a little over a month to develop

#1 - This alone shows that we can not trust anything China is telling us

#2 - These were the first "reported" cases.

#3 - China quarantines a population of 11 million people for only 517 cases and 17 deaths??? Drastic measures illustrating how they completely underestimated the virus's ability to spread.

#4 - China desperately trying to contain the outbreak of the virus that has already spread well beyond the point of origin.

#5 - Countries evacuating their nationals for ground zero.  This measure probably worries me the most.  Not in the sense that they may transport the virus, because it is already here.  More so from the point of view that countries are making a desperate attempt to save their citizens.

#6 - This one leads me to believe that we might see china get "sealed off" from the rest of the world (multiple border crossings with nations already closed).


With all that addressed, the actual number for deaths and cases is almost certainly higher than reported(how much higher is what remains to be seen), but i do think that this Tencent data was physically altered for the purpose of spreading fear.

29

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 01, 2020, 03:14:27 AM »

The effects of the quarantine may be beginning to show. This looks tentatively like an R0 reduction from 2.7 to 1.7.

Are the confirmed cases limited by the number of tests that can be performed each day?

I hope that is not the case, but there are reports of limited testing supplies available.

2 things trouble me today.

1) Can anyone confirm the validity of the videos circulating, shows bodies lying in the streets?  Those videos paint a much larger picture of what is going on if valid?

2)The 7th confirmed German case is apparently the child of one of the employees of the company where the virus was first reported.  The reason this troubles me so much, is if this child went to school at any point while carrying this virus.  Germany could be the next place we see a large cluster of cases outside of China.

30

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: January 30, 2020, 07:04:40 PM »

SH. I remember 10 years ago when I watched hurricanes forecast after hurricane forecast predict massive destruction only to fail. In the last few years, it has been the opposite. The catastrophe was predicted and they became true.


More than ever I hope you are right. But the threat seems to be real, the solutions are difficult and uncertain.

But I haven't seen anyone mention apocalypse. Only a disaster. After we've all had it we either die from it or become immune to it. The world continues with the immunes.  This shouldn't last more than a few seasons. This is not going to be worse than a BOE.

But it would suck if it spreads.

This part just made me think of "The Maze Runner" series.   

31

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: January 30, 2020, 06:52:38 PM »

First case of human-human transmission in the US.  Not Good!!   

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-30-20-intl-hnk/h_25483fb8e66eddd53faacd95479aa49b

32

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: January 30, 2020, 06:28:01 PM »

Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Fatality still running over 5%
with full medical infrastructure available

Quick math check shows less than half that number.  More like 2.08%

I do expect that number to grow as over 20% of cases are listed as sever.

33

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: January 29, 2020, 07:01:30 PM »

There is another issue of concern that has so far gone unremarked.

The genetic analysis of the variants of the virus trace back to an estimated common ancestor on or about November 29, 2019.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

The first human cases were identified about December 29th, implying infection no earlier than December 17, and more likely as late as December 24.

Yet the genetic tree shows several branching events about that time, and dozens of variants before that time. Please correct me if I am wrong. I am not a virologist. But, that would seem to suggest that the commonly presented story of a single infection from a single zoonotic jump at the Wuhan market in late December must be wrong. There has to have been, or seem to have to have been multiple infections in a short time frame with more than a dozen variants.

Alternately, there was a single infection back about November 20-24. And that infected person went undetected and gave rise to the variants.

The large number of variants all at once seems odd. They do fall into four or five fairly tight clusters, so perhaps the number of seeming variants is not unusual.

Still, this seems to point to two possibilities. 1) the zoonotic jump occurred a month earlier than has been believed, or 2) the zoonotic infection occurred many times with variants in a short period.

I have no idea what to make of that. And I don't know enough to know if this is usually seen to happen this way, or if this is unusual. It does look curious.

What most concerns me is that if there is a wild pool of the virus in some other species (most likely bats, next most likely snakes) which is rapidly mutating in that population, that it may be much harder to ultimately contain the disease. And the natural pool may be a source for continued new variants of the virus to emerge.

Sam

2) the zoonotic infection occurred many times with variants in a short period.
This seems to be the case as human-human transmission outside of china remains low

What most concerns me is that if there is a wild pool of the virus in some other species (most likely bats, next most likely snakes) which is rapidly mutating in that population, that it may be much harder to ultimately contain the disease. And the natural pool may be a source for continued new variants of the virus to emerge.

Nature posted this article about SARS linked to horsebats 3 years ago.  At the end the researches warned that an outbreak like SARS remained a possibility due to the often mixing of strains of the virus within the bat population.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

34

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: January 29, 2020, 06:34:35 PM »

Arch wrote: " Facemasks are certainly effective..."

I just heard an expert on the radio (US National Public Radio) claim that there is actually no study that shows that the kinds of facemasks that are widely available have any effect on stopping the spread of the flu or the common cold.

Correct.  Face masks are more of a control measure for sick people spreading germs to over people.  They should be prioritized to people with any symptoms and people treating those symptoms, not to people in fear of contracting the virus. 

So far it appears the majority of the cases have been connected to Wuhan and that leads me to believe that the initial outbreak so far seems to be from the first mutation stage.  The second mutation stage(human-human transmission) has happened, but the R0 of that mutation seems relatively low at this time.  This could possible be due to the extreme measures China has put in place to contain the outbreak.

As long as the virus doesn't mutate again and become airborne, then I feel this should be contained and fizzle out in a few months.

Praying i'm right about this.

35

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: January 25, 2020, 07:47:11 PM »

Did a little digging into coronaviruses on the internet, and came across the article tracing SARS to bats.   The article is 3 years old and very prevalent to what is happening right now.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

36

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1

« on: November 21, 2019, 04:16:47 PM »

I think that by eliminating abortion and sterilization you've eliminated all of the least horrific solutions possible.


An infinite population in a finite space simply isn't possible. China has shown that a one child policy is viable. When will the rest of the world conceded that breeding more people than can be cared for is inhumane, unjust & impractical.


If you attempted it with any other animal species you would properly be arrested.
Terry

Sorry gotta do it.   China's One Child policy was not viable for the continued stability of their economy which is why they ended it in 2015.

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2019/oct/07/john-oliver-china-one-child-policy-last-week-tonight-recap

The most alarming thing about this, is the ratio of men to women now in China.  Roughly 34 MILLION more men than women.  Also with an aging population it is putting incredible stress on the younger generation.

37

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season

« on: November 01, 2019, 03:04:33 PM »

The Chukchi Sea still does not want to freeze.



Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?

Chukchi took in a massive amount of heat this summer.  Heat in deeper waters will take more time to freeze.   I am amazed at how long it has lasted so far.  Could go another week before the real freeze takes over.

38

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019

« on: September 02, 2019, 06:44:18 PM »

While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

Spot on.   One of the most impressive things about Dorian is that up until now, it was able to maintain it's most interior structure without going through an EWRC, which has also kept the strongest winds very close to the center.   Dorian is now finishing the end of its first EWRC and you can expect he hurricane force wind field to expand from the center a little more.   I can see this maintaining as a Major hurricane up the coast of Florida while expanding its wind field at the same time with the assistance of the gulf stream.

39

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019

« on: September 02, 2019, 03:13:59 PM »

Has anyone had a look at the 06z 3KNAM run yet!?!   I know it's the NAM and typically does not perform well with tropical systems, but was one of the few models that predicted that mass IR of Dorian from a high end 4 (150mph) to a super cat5 (180+mph).

Anyways,  it has Dorian deepening again once it hits the gulf stream and this time sub 900mb.  Probably won't happen but definitely something to watch for.  SSTs are crazy high in front of Dorian's path.

BTW GFS and Euro also hint at restrengthening once it hits the gulf stream.  Global models are doing horrible job with the initialization.  They keep starting their runs 30mb higher than what the pressure actually is. 

40

Glaciers / Re: Alaska Glaciers

« on: August 17, 2019, 03:00:50 AM »

Sawyer Glacier 2012 vs 2019 pictures:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/shocking-images-show-how-much-alaskan-glacier-has-melted-in-just-five-years-113618212.html

It's a horrible comparison and gives deniers more fuel.  You can clearly tell the pictures were taken from a different point of view.  The second picture was clearly taken from further away.  I would also love to know the exact date for each picture, as it appears the second picture was take at a later date in the melting season.

41

Consequences / Re: AGW consequences where you live

« on: August 14, 2019, 03:29:31 AM »

Northeast warming faster than rest of US, particularly in winter:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/

As a New Jersey resident I have to call BS on this article.  First off more people live in the sector of the northeast than any other sector in the country, which would include more cities and more of a heat island effect...not really news.  Second their data only constricts to meteorological winter and not astronomical which would include part or match, and anyone living in the northeast will tell you that is to most variable month of the year (March 2016 was the coldest march on record for a lot of tristate areas).

I can not deny that winter is not what it used to be, but I'm unimpressed by the means they support it.  Seems just like stating an obvious fact.

42

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season

« on: August 13, 2019, 03:46:26 PM »

I thought it was interesting that a different model shows a ~150 GT difference from the other....

Not sure if NSIDC uses total mass or just surface mass, as DMI o ly calculates SMB which could be the difference we are looking at.

43

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?

« on: August 13, 2019, 06:21:33 AM »

[/quote]
I am talking as a relative % of the population, I think you are talking raw numbers. As a relative % of the population, we are at the worst-ever moment in history right now, IMO.

Remember, before urbanization, most humans WERE self-sufficient in terms of food production. A peasant's life in Medieval Europe was probably better than a factory or IT worker's life today, IMO.
[/quote]

Indoor plumbing is the only argument needed to prove this statement vastly false. 🤣

44

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: August 12, 2019, 01:20:28 PM »

There is another separate thread to compare this year to 2012.  There is too much noise in this thread already when comparing 2019 to other years.  People come to this thread to discuss this year and the dynamics that are causing it to melt not analoging it to other years.

45

The forum / Re: WHY THE CRAZY QUESTIONS TO POST AND ENTER SITE

« on: August 10, 2019, 12:12:42 AM »

I can't remember such a lot of questions when  joined.

I don't know but my guess is that as the forum becomes more well known, it becomes of more interest to those who wish all sites that accept AGW harm. Perhaps Neven has had to increase the forum's defences.

ps: I would have failed the Lena river question until about a year ago.
pps: Does Neven allow one or two failures before giving an "F" ?

I was just thinking about this earlier.  I definitely would have failed that before this year.  Been lurking in the shadows for many many years.  There is an incredible wealth of knowledge on this forum and I have learned so much over the years thanks to everyone that posts here.

ps.  that question came up for this post lol.

46

The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change

« on: August 08, 2019, 09:40:58 PM »

So some of you see the alt-right as the big problem......

. How many Jews live in Israël ? A couple million. Would they still be alive without the support of the US ?

No one is saying the alt-right is the only problem. If / when Muslim hate groups come to ASIF, I would condemn them just as much.

As a Jew, I understand that Israel is NOT dependent on the US for survival. They have at least 200 nukes and no rich group of mullahs is ready to commit suicide that I'm aware of. No precedent for that.

Religion and race based fanaticism of all stripes is bad news. As a Jew, I can't say that some of my tribe isn't infused with some of that. All religions have extremists and there are no shortage of greedy and power hungry people willing to manipulate people through fear of others.

As a Jew, it would be easy for me to take the tribal stance and accept that Muslims are to be feared. But it wasn't Muslims who created the assembly line of extermination that killed 6 million Jews. It was white Christian supremacists.

In America (where I live), , Muslims are too small in number to be feared. Scared and hate filled white people are the danger.

Yet the US sends them over $3billion in foreign aid.

47

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: August 06, 2019, 01:45:56 AM »

First time poster, been lurking since 2012.  I feel like this season is the time to break the silence. 

I have never seen the ice that is along the CAA and north Greenland in worse condition than any year I have been following the arctic.  We may not hit a record minimum, but this is definitely looking like a year that is preconditioning the pack for a massive loss in the coming years.  My worry is that once the pack is detached from all land, it will be extremely mobile and deteriorate rapidly with the slightly bit of unsettled weather.

Again not happening these year, but she is starting to showmany signs of fatigue.