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Messages - wili

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 26, 2019, 07:19:25 PM »
"... pesky lifeforms..."


Soooo, you agree that the temperature is self-regulating, but seem to forget that it is (primarily) CO2 that regulates the temperature, and that CO2 concentration is (or was until recently) largely regulated in the atmosphere by of those very same 'pesky lifeforms'...

Again, am I missing something here?

Science / Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« on: August 26, 2019, 07:08:25 PM »
Thanks, nan. I was wondering if you might pipe in here.

There does seem to be quite a bit of resistance to deep rethinks in most circles. The US in particular has a long history of resisting much deep philosophical thought, but that resistance now seems to be a fundamental part of global industrial consumerist culture.

I have long been anticipating that this would change as more and more thoughtful people recognized the more and more obvious fact that humans (and of course modern global industrial consumerist culture in particular) are directly bringing about a (and perhaps the largest) great mass extinction event, as well as fundamentally altering basic global systems that have been supporting life on the planet for millions of years, and more.

But I haven't seen much evidence of this, besides a few voices like yours, JimD's, and maybe Bruce's and a few others here and beyond.

In fact, as major catastrophe is pretty clearly inevitable now, any such awakening, even if it were too late to really save much of the living systems on the planet, would be at least some consolation.

We like to think that one aspect of the at least the best of our human nature is to learn from our mistakes.

We have made about the biggest mistake (or set of mistakes) that could be imagined. But I see little evidence that as a global culture we are even willing to consider learning anything very important from it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 26, 2019, 06:52:27 PM »
the Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.

I agree that this approach can be overstated, and I find Peter D. Ward's 'Media Hypothesis' (riffing on Lovelock's 'Gaia Hypothesis') to be a good corrective to some of the more extreme claims of the latter. But are you really denying that there are no feedbacks that can serve to regulate systems, at least to a point? There is a whole field in Biology that studies this, so it seems a bit of a stretch to say that there is no evidence to support any such dynamic.

But perhaps I am mis-reading your position here? If so, I look forward to your always eloquent further clarification! :)

Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

You seem to be saying here that if something has not happened before, it can never happen. This is an obvious logical fallacy. For the first claim, in particular, there has not really been a global civilization till quite recently. So here I must assume that I am misinterpreting your position in some way, for which, again, I breathlessly await further illumination from your general direction!

ETA: I see some of these have been addressed--and I agree that the original Gaia Theory went a bit too far. But do really reject all of Earth Systems Science?

Sam presents many examples of collapse. There is a fairly large and growing literature on civilization collapses and their causes. I'm not sure any of them rise to the level of continental collapse, but probably there are more than one definition of these terms being assumed here. Again, further clarity on these points would be appreciated.

Science / Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« on: August 26, 2019, 12:28:25 PM »
Arch wrote: "...necessity to maximize the human potential..."

Thanks for articulating what many see as the (or at least a) central purpose of modern societies.

But I think it is long past time to ask: 'human potential to do what?'

So far, mostly, human potential has been used to decimate the natural world.

I propose that we need a new central purpose, and that is to MINIMIZE human potential. Sounds radical, I know. But I would point out that the most important place to start minimizing human potential is with the most potent humans and institutions--the super-rich, the military...

If now isn't the time for a deep rethink of human priorities, when would that be?

Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 23, 2019, 09:40:15 PM »
vox quoting c. muffet: "There is a really profound risk when you take something as untested, controversial, politically volatile and morally risky as geoengineering and you make it the subject of industry-driven, market-oriented standards..."

Or as Lovelock once put's like putting a goat in charge of a garden...

Not only is it usually illegal, driving on sidewalks is generally (if somewhat counter intuitively) more dangerous than driving on the road.

This is mostly because of the speed at which you are likely to enter an intersection, from a direction that drivers are only expecting slow moving pedestrians to be coming from, iirc.

Having said that, I must confess that in some circumstances I, too, sometimes bike on the sidewalk  ::)

Why are we surprised that yet another conservative party once again has its head up its @$$ wrt gw?

But yeah, its pretty damn pathetic.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 18, 2019, 07:06:50 AM »

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:20:34 AM »
'they just go on and on and its seems you can't get've cracked the sky...:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:39:24 AM »

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:33:33 AM »
Read some (recently written) history, my drug addled friend! :)

Slavery generally declined in Europe after the fall of the Roman Empire. There was no more Empire to efficiently collect taxes. Roman law was not very nice to women...the list goes on and on.

The best thing the Romans did for Britain was leave, historian claims

On average Britons lived for two years longer after the fall of the Roman Empire

Asked if the fall of the Roman Empire was good for Britain, Prof Fleming added: “If you are a villa owner, no. But if you are part of the 97 per cent of the rest, then, yes, it might add a couple of years to your life which makes a difference.

“The people were living longer after Roman Britain because they weren’t being taxed
. “

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:17:37 AM »
For most people in Europe, most of the Middle Ages was an improvement in many ways over the Roman Empire.

But all this is basically irrelevant.

Past trends aren't proof of what will come in the future. (Do we really have to state such a blindingly obvious truth?) 

We are heading toward 4 - 8 C increases in global temperatures in this century, and more in the following ones. That is a pretty rock solid guarantee for ecological catastrophe for nearly all species.

(Again, I am a bit bewildered that we have to state these abecedarian truths here.)

I'm still primarily for Bernie... he's the real thing.

But I think you dismiss Warren to readily. Even dignifying the ridiculous trumped up (literally) story about her slight indigenous heritage by mentioning it is falling into the most ridiculous of right wing tempest-out-of-a-teapot-ism. And pretending it would be somehow fatal if she alienated the Native American vote (barely 2% of the population), which she hasn't is really beyond ridiculous.

It sadly seems impossible to have discussions about these kinds of things without otherwise intelligent people just spouting utter idiocies.

And that's all I have to say about that. :)

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 12, 2019, 08:35:13 PM »
It should be so blindingly obvious that it is rather embarrassing to have to state it here before this very intelligent audience. But...there is no absolute upper limit on how much one person or set of persons can consume, in the general sense (not wrt food).

As it is, about 20% of the global population is consuming about 80% of the resources. And a yet smaller portion is consuming still over half.

But that could be skewed further (and is in the process of doing so).

So you don't need a middle class to consume the world. A particularly voracious elite will do just fine.

ETA: As it is, the global richest 10% (of which we pretty much all are part) produces about half of all CO2 emissions. That's an elite. Lop off that and maybe a bit of the next 10% and most of your carbon pollution problem is mostly solved.

The problem is not the global middle third (~15%) or the global poorest (~5%). The problem is the global richest third (responsible for ~ 80% of CO2 pollution).

Of course, most of those most responsible for any problem, this one included, are likely to howl and scream and point fingers at others when their culpability is suggested. (Not saying that we are seeing any such behavior here, of course  :) ;) :P :-X )

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 12, 2019, 05:54:21 AM »
‘Greta effect’ leads to boom in children’s environmental books

The 16-year-old climate change activist has galvanised young people to read more about saving the planet

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 10, 2019, 02:54:52 PM »
"had no change" seems like an odd euphemism for 'went extinct.'

But yeah, basically. There's a book on the topic: "Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare: An Ecologist's Perspective"

Of course, it's hard to know how much of a role changing climate played in those extinctions.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:18:10 AM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: August 09, 2019, 10:37:53 PM »
A 4C increase was seen as quite possible within this century already way back in 2011, when the Royal Academy devoted an entire volume of its journal to studies about what that would mean:

Things haven't gotten any better since then as far as the Keeling Curve goes, so I don't see how we can be confident about exactly when we will get there. Many others already many years ago claimed that 6C was possible or likely before the end of the century. And recently:

Global temperatures could rise 6C by end of century, say scientists

Part of the 'scenario': 
...natural sinks are becoming less efficient, absorbing 55% of the carbon now, compared with 60% half a century ago

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 01:24:39 PM »
Welcome, Mleary01.

I have found those ruggedly persistent ice features rather fascinating for a while. Apparently it's a result of ridging--ice being pushed on top of other ice by prevailing winds. One year (I can't remember which right now) there was a feature that looked to most here like a goats head. It lasted quite a while, even while all the ice around it dissolved and even as it got pushed around by winds, iirc.

Don't feel like every post needs to be packed with insight and data, though those are always welcome! :)

This seems the best thread to post this item:

Climate crisis may be increasing jet stream turbulence, study finds

Potential impacts of rise in vertical shear include longer, bumpier and dearer flights

The climate crisis could be making transatlantic flights more bumpy, according to research into the impact of global heating on the jet stream.

Jet streams are powerful currents of air at the altitudes which planes fly. . They result from the air temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics, and reach speeds of up to 250mph (400kmph). They also sometimes meander.

Researchers say previous studies of the speed and location of the fastest part of the north Atlantic jet stream have found only small changes over time, although there are signs it is slowly shifting northward. Experts say the lack of dramatic alterations is because climate change produces competing effects at different altitudes.

The latest study, however, took a different approach. “Just because the speed isn’t changing, doesn’t mean the jet stream isn’t changing in other ways,” said Prof Paul Williams of the University of Reading, the lead author of the research...

We are fundamentally altering a basic regulatory system on the planet, and the article seems to be most concerned that this may make things a bit more bumpy for the jet setters who are sending the rest of us into the inferno!

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 08, 2019, 02:16:54 PM »
The problem is that tolerance of hate speech has a way of spiraling out of control.

We're all acquainted with feedback loops here, presumably. Once hate speech is allowed or goes unaddressed, two things are likely to happen:

1) Those who are disgusted by the hate speech are going to be less likely to want to associate with the site--they may visit less frequently, and will definitely not be inclined to recommend it to others

2) Those who want to promote hate speech will be drawn to the site, and work to further degrade it, overtly or subtly.

I don't envy Neven his task of trying to thread needles of promoting free and open exchange of ideas and avoiding the worst kinds of postings. Epithets against national or racial groups, it seems to me, should be a pretty clear line, though.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 08, 2019, 12:52:13 PM »
Nanning, many others share your general perspective, even if perhaps few have been as successful at fully decoupling from the juggernaut.

The rest / Re: Eco-Fascism - what kind of a rotten fruit is that
« on: August 06, 2019, 12:27:58 AM »
Alex, now you're just flailing. The Netherlands has a slightly higher population density than Belgium, yet about half the murder rate. And of course many countries and areas with much lower population densities have much higher murder rates. 

Just admit that this is a more complex issue than finding one cause.

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 02:46:25 AM »
We're starting to:

The irony is that whenever I see stories about modern, commercial wind propelled large ships, it's always oil f'n tankers!  :o

I guess that fits the general trend so far which is mostly to use alternative energy to do the bad things we're doing in a 'greener' way!  :-\ :'( :-X  >:(

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 01:44:01 AM »
Dr.T wrote:
Ok, as was said before I dont know many instances that a car and plane are both an equivalent choice and the plane is preferred. So I dont know if the whole thing is even a valid comparison and argument. Especially for transcontinent and transatlantic trips.  Tourism started with the decrease of travel (general travel) costs. Before airplanes we had coal fired trains and ships.

I agree. And before that, they had oat-fed horses and wind-driven ships...and most people never went more than a few miles from the places they were born (outside of nomadic peoples, merchants and other elites, mass migrations...).

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 12:00:05 AM »
Dr. T: There are lots of variables, but:

"if you are driving a hybrid with a bunch of are “four to five times as efficient as a plane over a similar distance."

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 01, 2019, 11:40:13 PM »
elcid wrote: "... accused of having some interest in defending airlines"

You accused people of 'bashing airlines...'

Sounds rather like you were defending airlines, to me. Just sayin' :)

(And when the likes of KK rallies to your side, you know then that you are on the wrong side of the argument!  ;D :P 8) )

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 29, 2019, 10:00:36 PM »
k wrote: "We should have dutch pubs where we sing this ..." My daughter is hoping to open a brewery/pub some day in  the not too distant future in Utrecht (probably) and loves sing-alongs and the Velvet you may not have to wait long or travel far!

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 29, 2019, 12:20:12 AM »
And occasionally, dance breaks out, as well!

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 29, 2019, 12:17:43 AM »
Kas, if there's an Irish pub near you, they often continue traditions of sea shanty and other sing alongs. Here's one near me I have visited:

Good one, Terry.

DBR is clearly an @$$ :)

Time to ban

Nicely put, nan!

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 25, 2019, 12:16:27 AM »
How to manage population growth:

- Go knock on the door of one of your heterosexual neighbors of childbearing age
- Ask them if they are planning to have unprotected sex anytime in the future
- Ask them to please be sure that male puts a rubber thingy on his willie
- Go to the hospital to treat your broken nose


Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 02:35:00 PM »
   I wrote:
I sited a number of scientists who straight out said that a (near) ice free Arctic would be a very big deal with many dramatic consequences. Do you just flat out disagree with all of those scientists?

b wrote:
Well, you had links to a couple of articles on - is that what you mean? Those articles do not support that a BOE will have cataclysmic effects, so I sort of ignored them as having been a mistake on your part.

The articles, including the one from Scientific American, were full of quotes from major climate scientists and writers. You clearly just want to ignore them and all data that contradicts your pet theories. So this does not seem like a very worthwhile discussion to pursue further. Have a good day.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 06:04:47 AM »
binntho, I am assuming by LIG you mean Eemian (even though technically the Holocene is the last, and Eemian is the penultimate :).

The prevailing Eemian climate was, on average, around 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 3.6 Fahrenheit) warmer than that of the Holocene. However, due to global warming, the past few July global temperatures likely surpassed the (long-term average) July temperatures of the Eemian period. During the Eemian, the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 280 parts per million

Speed of change is a big thing, too, for the ability of creatures and the systems that support them to adapt.

As we have seen, the there can be cracks in the ice along Greenland, and presumably these will widen quite a bit, allowing waves to crash again on its shores, before the Arctic is in full BOE.

I sited a number of scientists who straight out said that a (near) ice free Arctic would be a very big deal with many dramatic consequences. Do you just flat out disagree with all of those scientists?

(Apologies ahead of time. It's past my bedtime, so I probably won't respond further till tomorrow sometime. Sleep tight, one and all! And stay cool, all you Europeans in the jaws of that heatwave!)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:36:29 AM »
The Last Time the Arctic Was Ice-Free in the Summer, Modern Humans Didn’t Exist

By Eric Holthaus

Full study:

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 01:08:11 AM »
Sam wrote: "...if we can just get all of the monkeys in the cab..."

Unfortunately even if we get nearly all the 'monkeys' in agreement, the one(s) driving the damn cab will still drive us over the damn cliff, since they are the insane .001% who mostly don't care about anything but $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. :/

Thanks, though for the rest of your excellent post, especially this: "...With the loss of that buffer, the system loses its governor. It then is likely to change quite quickly to an alternate stable system governed by other dynamics. That is when we will,see and experience truly abrupt climate change...."

As has been said by many others many times better than I, uncertainty is not our friend, and flying into this sh!t storm relatively blind...not really able to model well what the likely outcomes are, should scare the b-jesus out of every living soul on the planet.

Dr. T--That does seem to be the view of man...but not all...specialists in that area. Certainly, thawing permafrost does now seem the more proximate (or rather immediate) carbon feedback threat.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 21, 2019, 08:11:34 PM »
Well, this precious bit of nature does not seem to have 'won,' nor have thousands of others, and millions more soon to similar disappear:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: July 17, 2019, 09:11:24 PM »
To follow Trump today is to tell anyone who will listen that you would have followed Hitler had you been alive in the 1930s and 40s

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:18:05 AM »
What happens to me is not very important. As they advised those in New Orleans recently, "Shelter in place."

Spending a lot of fuel moving everyone around is just going to exacerbate things further. But then, I've had a good full life, so I can't judge others' desires to extend theirs.

As Neven pointed out, people are anxious about their own survival mostly out of fear of death. But death is one thing, in this uncertain world, that we can all be 100% certain of.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 12, 2019, 07:39:52 AM »
Why, exactly, do you want to survive?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 06, 2019, 03:37:18 AM »

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 06, 2019, 03:35:48 AM »
I'm in a nina simone mood tonight:

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 02, 2019, 08:52:52 PM »
"Prior to this, European countries could more accurately be described as mercantilist states, accumulating wealth via trade."

Excellent post, but I would say it was generally more like robber economy or plundereconomy (Raubwirtschaft in German)...much of the wealth of Europe was stolen outright from the colonies.

Now it is still global robber capitalism,  but we are stealing from the future of humans and of pretty much all complex life.

"I would also guess that in the southeastern USA wet bulb temps would approach the 94ºF unsurvivabe mark as well."

Perhaps, but most of the highest wbt/heat index records set in the US have been in the Midwest or even  upper Midwest:

"...during the July heat wave of 1995 that the highest dew point of all was measured in the Upper Midwest: 90° at Appleton, Wisconsin at 5 p.m. on July 13th of that summer. The air temperature stood at 101° in Appleton at that time leading to a heat index reading of 148°, perhaps the highest such reading ever measured in the United States..."

Crop transpiration seems to be a major factor here.

I have been more or less obsessed with feedbacks since I first understood their significance. These are a good start for this region. For now, I'll just also point out that more open water in the Arctic allows for bigger waves to form, which in turn can more easily churn up whatever ice (or slush) is left.

The larger amplitude waves may also lead to churning of that lower strata of warmer, saltier water up toward the surface. Both of these processes of course melt more ice, creating more open water, allowing for bigger and bigger waves...

We are probably mostly now past this stage, but I suspect that a few years ago, a 'flash melt' event we had was exacerbated by the fact that some old ice as it broke up formed icebergs, some of which went down to considerable depths. When high winds hit the top of these, their much deeper and bigger sub-sea bodies would sway back and forth, churning that deeper, warmer strata up toward the surface.

This is just my theory, and we now will see very little of this, except from icebergs calved from glaciers, since nearly all of the thick old ice is now gone.

Getting a bit off topic perhaps, but as I understand it. But a major reason that poor people have lots of kids in many parts of the world is for security in their old age, and because there is no guarantee how many will make it past infancy. UBI (especially if accompanied by universal basic health care, including reproductive healthcare, and women's rights, including rights of choice, and to an education...) could go a long way in assuaging the kinds of fears that drive people in such precarious positions from having (or attempting to have) multiple kids.

Generally, most of the countries with the lowest birth rates tend to be those where most people have the most economic security, while most of the countries with the highest birth rates are those where most people are not very economically secure.

But perhaps others have different perspectives, or stats with links?

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 18, 2019, 05:13:04 PM »
Neven wrote: "Clothes will always be a problem, even though we buy almost everything second-hand."

We do too. Unfortunately, our main source for used clothes locally just closed shop :/

I was surprised to see that my biggest carbon footprint wrt clothing was my shoes. Basically none are made locally or even in the US, so there's the transport issue. And they're heavier than most other individual pieces of clothing. I also have weirdly wide feet (sextuple E!) so can't easily get them used, even if I were so inclined.

But I try to mostly focus on the big contributors (flying, diet) and worry proportionately less about the minor ones (clothing, straws, etc).

I think flying for job should partly be counted toward the people who own the business and use its service. But yeah, if your job requires a lot of travel (and so many do), one might want to look for a different job eventually. I probably lost my last job partly because I wouldn't fly to conferences to hear talks I was not interested in and give talks no one else was interested in.

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 18, 2019, 01:46:10 AM »
The last holiday flight I took was the summer of '03 to Paris. There I witnessed first hand the first major event that could very reliably be directly attributed to GW--the deadly heatwave that killed tens of thousands in France and Europe in just a few days. I had been thinking of giving up flying before then, but that really helped me decide. I had committed myself to one other event that required flight the next year, but I haven't flown since, and have pretty much given up any long distance (beyond ~10 miles) travel powered by fossil-death-fuels. I don't really miss it, and feel much more locally focused now.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: April 02, 2019, 02:38:50 PM »
KK, think what?

Any article that talks about fake journalism that doesn't start with the utterly consistent falsehoods coming out of Faux News is simply right wing propaganda. And lo and behold, a quick search reveals that the author is...surprise surprise...a right wing propagandist!

It isn't hard most of the time to figure this shit out. I guess mostly people don't because they're too lazy, perhaps? Or just don't care?

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