Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - wili

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 52
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:17:37 AM »
For most people in Europe, most of the Middle Ages was an improvement in many ways over the Roman Empire.

But all this is basically irrelevant.

Past trends aren't proof of what will come in the future. (Do we really have to state such a blindingly obvious truth?) 

We are heading toward 4 - 8 C increases in global temperatures in this century, and more in the following ones. That is a pretty rock solid guarantee for ecological catastrophe for nearly all species.

(Again, I am a bit bewildered that we have to state these abecedarian truths here.)

I'm still primarily for Bernie... he's the real thing.

But I think you dismiss Warren to readily. Even dignifying the ridiculous trumped up (literally) story about her slight indigenous heritage by mentioning it is falling into the most ridiculous of right wing tempest-out-of-a-teapot-ism. And pretending it would be somehow fatal if she alienated the Native American vote (barely 2% of the population), which she hasn't is really beyond ridiculous.

It sadly seems impossible to have discussions about these kinds of things without otherwise intelligent people just spouting utter idiocies.

And that's all I have to say about that. :)

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 12, 2019, 09:55:23 PM »
Good point, d. He's just making assertions because he is sure they must be true. Nothing whatsoever to back them up.

I guess I'll go back to ignoring him.  :-\

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 12, 2019, 08:35:13 PM »
It should be so blindingly obvious that it is rather embarrassing to have to state it here before this very intelligent audience. But...there is no absolute upper limit on how much one person or set of persons can consume, in the general sense (not wrt food).

As it is, about 20% of the global population is consuming about 80% of the resources. And a yet smaller portion is consuming still over half.

But that could be skewed further (and is in the process of doing so).

So you don't need a middle class to consume the world. A particularly voracious elite will do just fine.

ETA: As it is, the global richest 10% (of which we pretty much all are part) produces about half of all CO2 emissions. That's an elite. Lop off that and maybe a bit of the next 10% and most of your carbon pollution problem is mostly solved.

The problem is not the global middle third (~15%) or the global poorest (~5%). The problem is the global richest third (responsible for ~ 80% of CO2 pollution).

Of course, most of those most responsible for any problem, this one included, are likely to howl and scream and point fingers at others when their culpability is suggested. (Not saying that we are seeing any such behavior here, of course  :) ;) :P :-X )

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 12, 2019, 05:54:21 AM »
‘Greta effect’ leads to boom in children’s environmental books

The 16-year-old climate change activist has galvanised young people to read more about saving the planet

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 10, 2019, 02:54:52 PM »
"had no change" seems like an odd euphemism for 'went extinct.'

But yeah, basically. There's a book on the topic: "Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare: An Ecologist's Perspective"

Of course, it's hard to know how much of a role changing climate played in those extinctions.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:46:39 AM »
It does seem that Weather Report's Heavy Weather album really needs to be here in its entirety. Yeah, they were fusion, and yeah, as some wag put it, fusion jazz folk were tryin to make money yesterday...but Wayne Shorter, Joe Zawinul, Jaco Pastorius and others had jazz bona fides that no one could doubt, and they were jammin', man!

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:18:10 AM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: August 09, 2019, 10:37:53 PM »
A 4C increase was seen as quite possible within this century already way back in 2011, when the Royal Academy devoted an entire volume of its journal to studies about what that would mean:

Things haven't gotten any better since then as far as the Keeling Curve goes, so I don't see how we can be confident about exactly when we will get there. Many others already many years ago claimed that 6C was possible or likely before the end of the century. And recently:

Global temperatures could rise 6C by end of century, say scientists

Part of the 'scenario': 
...natural sinks are becoming less efficient, absorbing 55% of the carbon now, compared with 60% half a century ago

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 01:24:39 PM »
Welcome, Mleary01.

I have found those ruggedly persistent ice features rather fascinating for a while. Apparently it's a result of ridging--ice being pushed on top of other ice by prevailing winds. One year (I can't remember which right now) there was a feature that looked to most here like a goats head. It lasted quite a while, even while all the ice around it dissolved and even as it got pushed around by winds, iirc.

Don't feel like every post needs to be packed with insight and data, though those are always welcome! :)

This seems the best thread to post this item:

Climate crisis may be increasing jet stream turbulence, study finds

Potential impacts of rise in vertical shear include longer, bumpier and dearer flights

The climate crisis could be making transatlantic flights more bumpy, according to research into the impact of global heating on the jet stream.

Jet streams are powerful currents of air at the altitudes which planes fly. . They result from the air temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics, and reach speeds of up to 250mph (400kmph). They also sometimes meander.

Researchers say previous studies of the speed and location of the fastest part of the north Atlantic jet stream have found only small changes over time, although there are signs it is slowly shifting northward. Experts say the lack of dramatic alterations is because climate change produces competing effects at different altitudes.

The latest study, however, took a different approach. “Just because the speed isn’t changing, doesn’t mean the jet stream isn’t changing in other ways,” said Prof Paul Williams of the University of Reading, the lead author of the research...

We are fundamentally altering a basic regulatory system on the planet, and the article seems to be most concerned that this may make things a bit more bumpy for the jet setters who are sending the rest of us into the inferno!

Maybe we need to stop paying farmers to do things that are ecologically damaging and CO2/methane producing. I just heard that a huge portion of dairy farm income is government subsidy. That's just sick.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 08, 2019, 02:16:54 PM »
The problem is that tolerance of hate speech has a way of spiraling out of control.

We're all acquainted with feedback loops here, presumably. Once hate speech is allowed or goes unaddressed, two things are likely to happen:

1) Those who are disgusted by the hate speech are going to be less likely to want to associate with the site--they may visit less frequently, and will definitely not be inclined to recommend it to others

2) Those who want to promote hate speech will be drawn to the site, and work to further degrade it, overtly or subtly.

I don't envy Neven his task of trying to thread needles of promoting free and open exchange of ideas and avoiding the worst kinds of postings. Epithets against national or racial groups, it seems to me, should be a pretty clear line, though.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 08, 2019, 12:52:13 PM »
Nanning, many others share your general perspective, even if perhaps few have been as successful at fully decoupling from the juggernaut.

The rest / Re: Eco-Fascism - what kind of a rotten fruit is that
« on: August 06, 2019, 12:27:58 AM »
Alex, now you're just flailing. The Netherlands has a slightly higher population density than Belgium, yet about half the murder rate. And of course many countries and areas with much lower population densities have much higher murder rates. 

Just admit that this is a more complex issue than finding one cause.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 05, 2019, 03:25:29 PM »
Isn't the Hudson much fresher, less salty water than the oceans?

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 02:46:25 AM »
We're starting to:

The irony is that whenever I see stories about modern, commercial wind propelled large ships, it's always oil f'n tankers!  :o

I guess that fits the general trend so far which is mostly to use alternative energy to do the bad things we're doing in a 'greener' way!  :-\ :'( :-X  >:(

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 01:44:01 AM »
Dr.T wrote:
Ok, as was said before I dont know many instances that a car and plane are both an equivalent choice and the plane is preferred. So I dont know if the whole thing is even a valid comparison and argument. Especially for transcontinent and transatlantic trips.  Tourism started with the decrease of travel (general travel) costs. Before airplanes we had coal fired trains and ships.

I agree. And before that, they had oat-fed horses and wind-driven ships...and most people never went more than a few miles from the places they were born (outside of nomadic peoples, merchants and other elites, mass migrations...).

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 12:00:05 AM »
Dr. T: There are lots of variables, but:

"if you are driving a hybrid with a bunch of are “four to five times as efficient as a plane over a similar distance."

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 01, 2019, 11:40:13 PM »
elcid wrote: "... accused of having some interest in defending airlines"

You accused people of 'bashing airlines...'

Sounds rather like you were defending airlines, to me. Just sayin' :)

(And when the likes of KK rallies to your side, you know then that you are on the wrong side of the argument!  ;D :P 8) )

Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 01, 2019, 08:06:38 PM »
Aslan wrote:

...Open Arctic in winter can probably be sustained with greater CO2, moisture, enhanced cloud cover and ocean heat transport I think. For ocean heat transport, I am strongly convinced by the theory of Kerry Emmanuel, saying that more hurricanes, and more poleward hurricane, could increase the ocean heat transport...

Thanks, that's pretty much my understanding of it, too.

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 01, 2019, 08:00:49 PM »
The other thing that comparisons between air and car (and other terrestrial) travel miss is that most people take plane trips that they would simply never take by car (or by any other combination of terrestrial and maritime transport). The average plane trip is much farther than the average car trip.

So most of the time it's an unrealistic/false comparison, since the choice usually isn't between taking a trip by plane or car--it's between taking the trip by plane, or not going at all.

Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 01, 2019, 05:33:23 AM »
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:

• Big increases in regional water vapor with consequent effects on regional GW (likely with BOE)
• Big increases in low level clouds (obviously related to the previous)
• Big increases in regional methane, whether from land or sea or elsewhere
• Big increases in wave amplitude (likely with BOE) churning deep, warmer waters up toward the surfact
• Ever loopier Rossby waves bringing ever warmer, ever wetter air up from the south
• Total breakdown of atmospheric currents to 'one cell' 'equable climate'
• Big alterations in ocean currents (likely with BOE, but in what direction is hard to say)
• Ever stronger cyclones coming ever further north
• Other ever-larger and ever hotter subtropical airmasses moving north of the Arctic circle (as is happening now over Greenland)...

Those are just some things at the top of my brain. I'm sure others can think of more mechanisms that would hold more heat in the Arctic or transport more heat in. It's hard to say how important any one of these would be or how much they would interact to reinforce each other and how quickly. But given these and others, I don't see how one can say that it is completely unimaginable that year round BOE could be a 'thing' in the not so very distant future.

There are other things possible/observed wrt to the stratosphere that perhaps others could clarify more competently than I.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: July 31, 2019, 01:24:03 AM »
Well, it sounds like he's talking about branches that he is trimming from trees. You don't need an entire tree to do hugelkultur, as I understand it, though it's nice to have rather big pieces as the foundation, so to speak.

It sounds like your situation is different, but I've done versions of hugelkultur in very small areas. The basic principles can be used at pretty much any scale, again, as far as I understand it (being no expert).

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: July 31, 2019, 12:49:14 AM »
Good idea, vox. But Etienne will have to be sure it's dead before putting it into hugelkultur, or you'll have the same problem you did with putting it in the compost.

DrT...I'm not sure what you mean by a large land footprint in this case. The trees are already there. If you need he may need extra land to let the cut branches dry and die, I would have to agree.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 29, 2019, 10:00:36 PM »
k wrote: "We should have dutch pubs where we sing this ..." My daughter is hoping to open a brewery/pub some day in  the not too distant future in Utrecht (probably) and loves sing-alongs and the Velvet you may not have to wait long or travel far!

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 29, 2019, 12:20:12 AM »
And occasionally, dance breaks out, as well!

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 29, 2019, 12:17:43 AM »
Kas, if there's an Irish pub near you, they often continue traditions of sea shanty and other sing alongs. Here's one near me I have visited:

Good one, Terry.

DBR is clearly an @$$ :)

Time to ban

Walking the walk / Re: Terra Preta / Biochar - Theory and Practice
« on: July 28, 2019, 09:00:50 PM »
Bruce wrote: "Trying to figure out how to move around tons and tons of compost or compost feedstocks requires heavy equipment and unless you can produce biodiesel ..."

Or until you can figure out how to use your acorn-fed pigs as draft animals to pull cartloads full of silage??  :)

Nicely put, nan!

Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: July 26, 2019, 02:12:21 AM »
SH, what took you so long!  :D

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 25, 2019, 12:16:27 AM »
How to manage population growth:

- Go knock on the door of one of your heterosexual neighbors of childbearing age
- Ask them if they are planning to have unprotected sex anytime in the future
- Ask them to please be sure that male puts a rubber thingy on his willie
- Go to the hospital to treat your broken nose


Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: July 24, 2019, 06:32:02 PM »
vox and tom, thanks for these, and for your very many other informative contributions to this forum.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 24, 2019, 02:41:22 PM »
Hear, hear!

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 02:35:00 PM »
   I wrote:
I sited a number of scientists who straight out said that a (near) ice free Arctic would be a very big deal with many dramatic consequences. Do you just flat out disagree with all of those scientists?

b wrote:
Well, you had links to a couple of articles on - is that what you mean? Those articles do not support that a BOE will have cataclysmic effects, so I sort of ignored them as having been a mistake on your part.

The articles, including the one from Scientific American, were full of quotes from major climate scientists and writers. You clearly just want to ignore them and all data that contradicts your pet theories. So this does not seem like a very worthwhile discussion to pursue further. Have a good day.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 06:04:47 AM »
binntho, I am assuming by LIG you mean Eemian (even though technically the Holocene is the last, and Eemian is the penultimate :).

The prevailing Eemian climate was, on average, around 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 3.6 Fahrenheit) warmer than that of the Holocene. However, due to global warming, the past few July global temperatures likely surpassed the (long-term average) July temperatures of the Eemian period. During the Eemian, the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 280 parts per million

Speed of change is a big thing, too, for the ability of creatures and the systems that support them to adapt.

As we have seen, the there can be cracks in the ice along Greenland, and presumably these will widen quite a bit, allowing waves to crash again on its shores, before the Arctic is in full BOE.

I sited a number of scientists who straight out said that a (near) ice free Arctic would be a very big deal with many dramatic consequences. Do you just flat out disagree with all of those scientists?

(Apologies ahead of time. It's past my bedtime, so I probably won't respond further till tomorrow sometime. Sleep tight, one and all! And stay cool, all you Europeans in the jaws of that heatwave!)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 05:06:20 AM »
More recent:

"The albedo effect due to vanishing sea ice is already responsible for about 25 percent of global warming"

Also discusses slr, jetstream disruption, permafrost loss w carbon feedback...Quoting J. Francis and other scientists.


Ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean “would radically affect global weather patterns and dramatically increase the magnitude and frequency of storm events. It would also dramatically alter the Arctic marine ecosystem, with the added sunlight affecting the Arctic Ocean food web and melting the very ice bed on which animals like polar bears hunt,” says John Yackel, professor of geography, University of Calgary.

(Are we really having this conversation here?)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:54:48 AM »
Good points, CD.

Some further points here:

 Global impacts

On a larger scale, the biggest impact may be the changes in the Arctic's ability to function as a cooling system for the global ocean. Both the Pacific and Atlantic now have warmer waters from the top to the bottom, based on measurements from computerized floats. The Arctic has been functioning as a global air conditioner, losing roughly 350 watts of heat per square meter of open ocean to the atmosphere during the fall storm season as well as the early part of the winter. A warmer Arctic may not be able to shed those greater amounts of heat.

That inability, in turn, will affect the temperature differences between the northern polar region and areas further south. In the atmosphere, it is that temperature gradient that creates and sustains the jet stream—a band of high winds at altitude flowing from west to east that typically steers weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere. "The jet stream becomes more kinked," NSIDC's Meier notes, which allows cold air to spill further south or warm air to penetrate further north.

The loss of this temperature gradient may also stall weather patterns within the jet stream, allowing particular weather systems to park for a while in one place. That may, in turn, create stronger heat waves and droughts or precipitation. "If it's a rain pattern that gets stuck in place, you get flooding that becomes a problem," Meier says.

As other parts of the article point out, we really don't have a clear idea about what will happen, either from models nor paleo-data. This is likely going to happen faster than in earlier periods, so it's not clear that paleo-data, whatever exists, will be all that helpful in figuring out the immediate impacts of such a rapid change.

And of course the world and human life is very, very different in many ways than it was millions of years ago (which should be so blindingly obvious, I'm rather embarrassed to have to state it here).

More from the same article:

Model failure

Regardless of what the Arctic meltdown reveals, what is increasingly clear is that the computer models that scientists rely upon to make predictions have failed to capture the rapid pace of change in the far north. The problem stems from spatial resolutions that are too large—a single grid in a typical computer model encompasses 100 square kilometers—to "see" small but important features such as warm ocean water currents or ice export. And the computing capacity is insufficient to render Arctic cyclones and the role they play in breaking up the ice. "Are the models still too conservative or not?"...

"We're moving into new territory and the impacts of that are unknown scientifically."

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:36:29 AM »
The Last Time the Arctic Was Ice-Free in the Summer, Modern Humans Didn’t Exist

By Eric Holthaus

Full study:

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2019, 01:56:15 AM »
Note where the numbers end in vox's charts. That's where wetbulb temperatures have never been recorded. But that is where more and more of the world is headed.

Meanwhile, my daughter just decided to travel from relatively cool Netherlands to Paris for the next couple days, where temperatures are predicted to reach and even exceed 40C.

How are things looking wherever you are now?

eta: Emphasis on 'relatively' in the above!

Another Europe Heat Wave May Shatter All-Time Records in Paris, U.K., Belgium and The Netherlands

I hope all our European friends in these areas are able to stay safe and tolerably cool!

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 01:08:11 AM »
Sam wrote: "...if we can just get all of the monkeys in the cab..."

Unfortunately even if we get nearly all the 'monkeys' in agreement, the one(s) driving the damn cab will still drive us over the damn cliff, since they are the insane .001% who mostly don't care about anything but $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. :/

Thanks, though for the rest of your excellent post, especially this: "...With the loss of that buffer, the system loses its governor. It then is likely to change quite quickly to an alternate stable system governed by other dynamics. That is when we will,see and experience truly abrupt climate change...."

As has been said by many others many times better than I, uncertainty is not our friend, and flying into this sh!t storm relatively blind...not really able to model well what the likely outcomes are, should scare the b-jesus out of every living soul on the planet.

Dr. T--That does seem to be the view of man...but not all...specialists in that area. Certainly, thawing permafrost does now seem the more proximate (or rather immediate) carbon feedback threat.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 21, 2019, 08:11:34 PM »
Well, this precious bit of nature does not seem to have 'won,' nor have thousands of others, and millions more soon to similar disappear:

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 17, 2019, 09:19:23 PM »
Our thoughts are with you, Neven.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: July 17, 2019, 09:11:24 PM »
To follow Trump today is to tell anyone who will listen that you would have followed Hitler had you been alive in the 1930s and 40s

Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: July 17, 2019, 01:05:32 AM »
"That's lower than the annual emissions from China's coal mines."

Wow, how low exactly do we want to set that bar! ?

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 16, 2019, 05:16:53 PM »
In the short term, local emissions may have a bigger effect on monsoons than overall gw does.

This seems to be a more general treatment of the subject, but I'm having trouble getting access to it:

The Indian Monsoon in a Changing Climate

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:18:05 AM »
What happens to me is not very important. As they advised those in New Orleans recently, "Shelter in place."

Spending a lot of fuel moving everyone around is just going to exacerbate things further. But then, I've had a good full life, so I can't judge others' desires to extend theirs.

As Neven pointed out, people are anxious about their own survival mostly out of fear of death. But death is one thing, in this uncertain world, that we can all be 100% certain of.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 05:40:06 AM »
Just a note: The north half of Saskatchewan is dominated by the Canadian Shield, not an area noted for deep top soil generally.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 12, 2019, 07:39:52 AM »
Why, exactly, do you want to survive?

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 52