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Messages - wili

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Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 28, 2019, 07:31:58 PM »
Soooo, it's still possible that it will be a direct hit on Mara Lago, wiping it from the face of the earth? :)

The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 10:53:31 AM »
Well, I guess that pretty much tells us all we need to know about where b is coming from!  :o

It's actually a pretty standard modernist view point, if not always so bluntly and honestly stated.

It's convenient how 'it's all natural' nicely wipes the entire species clean of any possible culpability!

The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 08:53:57 AM »
Thanks for the clarification, b.

From your phrase, "civilsation based exclusively on subsistence farming" I'm guessing your definition of 'civilization' is more what I would call merely 'culture.'

Generally, as the etymology of the word implies, 'civilization' implies a high degree of social structure, specifically including cities and the specializations they allow and foster.

If you have a more nuanced meaning of civilization you intend to use here, perhaps you could share that with us, too.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 27, 2019, 02:18:49 AM »
I thought that was some kind of subtle slam by Terry against Neven!  :o

There are many reports that many people in the Netherlands resorted to eating tulip bulbs at some point during WWII. Apparently, though, most were careful to remove the center, which seems to be the poisonous part.

Perhaps others can throw more light on the subject, since I'm a bit of a dim bulb... :)

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 26, 2019, 07:26:44 PM »
Speaking of LOTR, is there any connection between these and Homo floresiensis?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 26, 2019, 07:19:25 PM »
"... pesky lifeforms..."


Soooo, you agree that the temperature is self-regulating, but seem to forget that it is (primarily) CO2 that regulates the temperature, and that CO2 concentration is (or was until recently) largely regulated in the atmosphere by of those very same 'pesky lifeforms'...

Again, am I missing something here?

Science / Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« on: August 26, 2019, 07:08:25 PM »
Thanks, nan. I was wondering if you might pipe in here.

There does seem to be quite a bit of resistance to deep rethinks in most circles. The US in particular has a long history of resisting much deep philosophical thought, but that resistance now seems to be a fundamental part of global industrial consumerist culture.

I have long been anticipating that this would change as more and more thoughtful people recognized the more and more obvious fact that humans (and of course modern global industrial consumerist culture in particular) are directly bringing about a (and perhaps the largest) great mass extinction event, as well as fundamentally altering basic global systems that have been supporting life on the planet for millions of years, and more.

But I haven't seen much evidence of this, besides a few voices like yours, JimD's, and maybe Bruce's and a few others here and beyond.

In fact, as major catastrophe is pretty clearly inevitable now, any such awakening, even if it were too late to really save much of the living systems on the planet, would be at least some consolation.

We like to think that one aspect of the at least the best of our human nature is to learn from our mistakes.

We have made about the biggest mistake (or set of mistakes) that could be imagined. But I see little evidence that as a global culture we are even willing to consider learning anything very important from it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 26, 2019, 06:52:27 PM »
the Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.

I agree that this approach can be overstated, and I find Peter D. Ward's 'Media Hypothesis' (riffing on Lovelock's 'Gaia Hypothesis') to be a good corrective to some of the more extreme claims of the latter. But are you really denying that there are no feedbacks that can serve to regulate systems, at least to a point? There is a whole field in Biology that studies this, so it seems a bit of a stretch to say that there is no evidence to support any such dynamic.

But perhaps I am mis-reading your position here? If so, I look forward to your always eloquent further clarification! :)

Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

You seem to be saying here that if something has not happened before, it can never happen. This is an obvious logical fallacy. For the first claim, in particular, there has not really been a global civilization till quite recently. So here I must assume that I am misinterpreting your position in some way, for which, again, I breathlessly await further illumination from your general direction!

ETA: I see some of these have been addressed--and I agree that the original Gaia Theory went a bit too far. But do really reject all of Earth Systems Science?

Sam presents many examples of collapse. There is a fairly large and growing literature on civilization collapses and their causes. I'm not sure any of them rise to the level of continental collapse, but probably there are more than one definition of these terms being assumed here. Again, further clarity on these points would be appreciated.

Science / Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« on: August 26, 2019, 06:36:58 PM »
Are there lots of examples of humans improving the well being of other plants and animals, beyond those that immediately benefit themselves?

If so, I am all in favor of improving their potential.

I see little evidence of that (beyond a few efforts to 'save' most charismatic species that humans themselves had driven to the brink of extinction, which of course I am for).

wrt to Terry's 'survival'--again, survival for what. Have we collectively really earned the right to survive?

Science / Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« on: August 26, 2019, 12:28:25 PM »
Arch wrote: "...necessity to maximize the human potential..."

Thanks for articulating what many see as the (or at least a) central purpose of modern societies.

But I think it is long past time to ask: 'human potential to do what?'

So far, mostly, human potential has been used to decimate the natural world.

I propose that we need a new central purpose, and that is to MINIMIZE human potential. Sounds radical, I know. But I would point out that the most important place to start minimizing human potential is with the most potent humans and institutions--the super-rich, the military...

If now isn't the time for a deep rethink of human priorities, when would that be?

Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 23, 2019, 09:40:15 PM »
vox quoting c. muffet: "There is a really profound risk when you take something as untested, controversial, politically volatile and morally risky as geoengineering and you make it the subject of industry-driven, market-oriented standards..."

Or as Lovelock once put's like putting a goat in charge of a garden...

Not only is it usually illegal, driving on sidewalks is generally (if somewhat counter intuitively) more dangerous than driving on the road.

This is mostly because of the speed at which you are likely to enter an intersection, from a direction that drivers are only expecting slow moving pedestrians to be coming from, iirc.

Having said that, I must confess that in some circumstances I, too, sometimes bike on the sidewalk  ::)

Tom--I, for one, hope you keep posting. Many of your titles and links are quite interesting to me.

ALSR similarly started by dumping a lot of links. With some prompting, we got him to indicate what it was he found particularly interesting from each link, with sufficient (properly quoted) text included to make clear what the piece was about. I consider him to be among the most important posters on this forum now. You might look at some of this posts for some points on how to make your contributions even more valuable to us all.

Thanks ahead of time for future posts. (And yes, plagiarism is still plagiarism, whether it is intentional or not. But as a once-upon-a-time teacher of writing, I would generally be more lenient to students who were doing it by accident, which were most of them, since they were mostly sophomores still learning the basics.)

Best wishes,

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 22, 2019, 09:22:42 PM »
Thanks, Susan. I hope you stay around for a while!

As for what-about-ism, it actually has specific associations with Soviet propaganda--it was a favorite ploy then, and still seems to be by those who have taken the helm their and their minions.

Whataboutism, also known as whataboutery, is a variant of the tu quoque logical fallacy that attempts to discredit an opponent's position by charging them with hypocrisy without directly refuting or disproving their argument, which in the United States is particularly associated with Soviet and Russian propaganda. When criticisms were leveled at the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the Soviet response would often be "What about..." followed by an event in the Western world.

Well, yes, it is not correct. But the specific term for that kind of failure to be correct is in fact "plagiarism."

To wit:

... All of the following are considered plagiarism:

    turning in someone else's work as your own
    copying words or ideas from someone else without giving credit
    failing to put a quotation in quotation ...
(emphasis added)

Why are we surprised that yet another conservative party once again has its head up its @$$ wrt gw?

But yeah, its pretty damn pathetic.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 18, 2019, 07:06:50 AM »

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:20:34 AM »
'they just go on and on and its seems you can't get've cracked the sky...:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 16, 2019, 04:52:30 AM »

Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 16, 2019, 03:51:43 AM »
As Alfred Korzybski remarked:  "the map is not the territory"

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:39:24 AM »

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 05:49:53 AM »
petm, you silly fool! You want data? Data? That is only for fools!!!

We must always believe every word and every syllable and every phoneme that bbr utters or types, because s/he has the TRUE and ULTIMATE TRUTH in the PALM of his F'ng HAND!!!!

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

This is actually far beyond what parody can reach.

Best to all in a very uncertain world! :)

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 04:43:02 AM »
Once again, bbr is sure he knows the right answer, though he presents no data to support it. It is useless to debate further with such. If others want to talk about history who are not so utterly blinkered, I'm happy to oblige.

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:33:33 AM »
Read some (recently written) history, my drug addled friend! :)

Slavery generally declined in Europe after the fall of the Roman Empire. There was no more Empire to efficiently collect taxes. Roman law was not very nice to women...the list goes on and on.

The best thing the Romans did for Britain was leave, historian claims

On average Britons lived for two years longer after the fall of the Roman Empire

Asked if the fall of the Roman Empire was good for Britain, Prof Fleming added: “If you are a villa owner, no. But if you are part of the 97 per cent of the rest, then, yes, it might add a couple of years to your life which makes a difference.

“The people were living longer after Roman Britain because they weren’t being taxed
. “

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:17:37 AM »
For most people in Europe, most of the Middle Ages was an improvement in many ways over the Roman Empire.

But all this is basically irrelevant.

Past trends aren't proof of what will come in the future. (Do we really have to state such a blindingly obvious truth?) 

We are heading toward 4 - 8 C increases in global temperatures in this century, and more in the following ones. That is a pretty rock solid guarantee for ecological catastrophe for nearly all species.

(Again, I am a bit bewildered that we have to state these abecedarian truths here.)

I'm still primarily for Bernie... he's the real thing.

But I think you dismiss Warren to readily. Even dignifying the ridiculous trumped up (literally) story about her slight indigenous heritage by mentioning it is falling into the most ridiculous of right wing tempest-out-of-a-teapot-ism. And pretending it would be somehow fatal if she alienated the Native American vote (barely 2% of the population), which she hasn't is really beyond ridiculous.

It sadly seems impossible to have discussions about these kinds of things without otherwise intelligent people just spouting utter idiocies.

And that's all I have to say about that. :)

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 12, 2019, 09:55:23 PM »
Good point, d. He's just making assertions because he is sure they must be true. Nothing whatsoever to back them up.

I guess I'll go back to ignoring him.  :-\

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 12, 2019, 08:35:13 PM »
It should be so blindingly obvious that it is rather embarrassing to have to state it here before this very intelligent audience. But...there is no absolute upper limit on how much one person or set of persons can consume, in the general sense (not wrt food).

As it is, about 20% of the global population is consuming about 80% of the resources. And a yet smaller portion is consuming still over half.

But that could be skewed further (and is in the process of doing so).

So you don't need a middle class to consume the world. A particularly voracious elite will do just fine.

ETA: As it is, the global richest 10% (of which we pretty much all are part) produces about half of all CO2 emissions. That's an elite. Lop off that and maybe a bit of the next 10% and most of your carbon pollution problem is mostly solved.

The problem is not the global middle third (~15%) or the global poorest (~5%). The problem is the global richest third (responsible for ~ 80% of CO2 pollution).

Of course, most of those most responsible for any problem, this one included, are likely to howl and scream and point fingers at others when their culpability is suggested. (Not saying that we are seeing any such behavior here, of course  :) ;) :P :-X )

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 12, 2019, 05:54:21 AM »
‘Greta effect’ leads to boom in children’s environmental books

The 16-year-old climate change activist has galvanised young people to read more about saving the planet

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 10, 2019, 02:54:52 PM »
"had no change" seems like an odd euphemism for 'went extinct.'

But yeah, basically. There's a book on the topic: "Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare: An Ecologist's Perspective"

Of course, it's hard to know how much of a role changing climate played in those extinctions.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:46:39 AM »
It does seem that Weather Report's Heavy Weather album really needs to be here in its entirety. Yeah, they were fusion, and yeah, as some wag put it, fusion jazz folk were tryin to make money yesterday...but Wayne Shorter, Joe Zawinul, Jaco Pastorius and others had jazz bona fides that no one could doubt, and they were jammin', man!

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:18:10 AM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: August 09, 2019, 10:37:53 PM »
A 4C increase was seen as quite possible within this century already way back in 2011, when the Royal Academy devoted an entire volume of its journal to studies about what that would mean:

Things haven't gotten any better since then as far as the Keeling Curve goes, so I don't see how we can be confident about exactly when we will get there. Many others already many years ago claimed that 6C was possible or likely before the end of the century. And recently:

Global temperatures could rise 6C by end of century, say scientists

Part of the 'scenario': 
...natural sinks are becoming less efficient, absorbing 55% of the carbon now, compared with 60% half a century ago

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 01:24:39 PM »
Welcome, Mleary01.

I have found those ruggedly persistent ice features rather fascinating for a while. Apparently it's a result of ridging--ice being pushed on top of other ice by prevailing winds. One year (I can't remember which right now) there was a feature that looked to most here like a goats head. It lasted quite a while, even while all the ice around it dissolved and even as it got pushed around by winds, iirc.

Don't feel like every post needs to be packed with insight and data, though those are always welcome! :)

This seems the best thread to post this item:

Climate crisis may be increasing jet stream turbulence, study finds

Potential impacts of rise in vertical shear include longer, bumpier and dearer flights

The climate crisis could be making transatlantic flights more bumpy, according to research into the impact of global heating on the jet stream.

Jet streams are powerful currents of air at the altitudes which planes fly. . They result from the air temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics, and reach speeds of up to 250mph (400kmph). They also sometimes meander.

Researchers say previous studies of the speed and location of the fastest part of the north Atlantic jet stream have found only small changes over time, although there are signs it is slowly shifting northward. Experts say the lack of dramatic alterations is because climate change produces competing effects at different altitudes.

The latest study, however, took a different approach. “Just because the speed isn’t changing, doesn’t mean the jet stream isn’t changing in other ways,” said Prof Paul Williams of the University of Reading, the lead author of the research...

We are fundamentally altering a basic regulatory system on the planet, and the article seems to be most concerned that this may make things a bit more bumpy for the jet setters who are sending the rest of us into the inferno!

Maybe we need to stop paying farmers to do things that are ecologically damaging and CO2/methane producing. I just heard that a huge portion of dairy farm income is government subsidy. That's just sick.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 08, 2019, 02:16:54 PM »
The problem is that tolerance of hate speech has a way of spiraling out of control.

We're all acquainted with feedback loops here, presumably. Once hate speech is allowed or goes unaddressed, two things are likely to happen:

1) Those who are disgusted by the hate speech are going to be less likely to want to associate with the site--they may visit less frequently, and will definitely not be inclined to recommend it to others

2) Those who want to promote hate speech will be drawn to the site, and work to further degrade it, overtly or subtly.

I don't envy Neven his task of trying to thread needles of promoting free and open exchange of ideas and avoiding the worst kinds of postings. Epithets against national or racial groups, it seems to me, should be a pretty clear line, though.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 08, 2019, 12:52:13 PM »
Nanning, many others share your general perspective, even if perhaps few have been as successful at fully decoupling from the juggernaut.

The rest / Re: Eco-Fascism - what kind of a rotten fruit is that
« on: August 06, 2019, 12:27:58 AM »
Alex, now you're just flailing. The Netherlands has a slightly higher population density than Belgium, yet about half the murder rate. And of course many countries and areas with much lower population densities have much higher murder rates. 

Just admit that this is a more complex issue than finding one cause.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 05, 2019, 03:25:29 PM »
Isn't the Hudson much fresher, less salty water than the oceans?

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 02:46:25 AM »
We're starting to:

The irony is that whenever I see stories about modern, commercial wind propelled large ships, it's always oil f'n tankers!  :o

I guess that fits the general trend so far which is mostly to use alternative energy to do the bad things we're doing in a 'greener' way!  :-\ :'( :-X  >:(

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 01:44:01 AM »
Dr.T wrote:
Ok, as was said before I dont know many instances that a car and plane are both an equivalent choice and the plane is preferred. So I dont know if the whole thing is even a valid comparison and argument. Especially for transcontinent and transatlantic trips.  Tourism started with the decrease of travel (general travel) costs. Before airplanes we had coal fired trains and ships.

I agree. And before that, they had oat-fed horses and wind-driven ships...and most people never went more than a few miles from the places they were born (outside of nomadic peoples, merchants and other elites, mass migrations...).

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 12:00:05 AM »
Dr. T: There are lots of variables, but:

"if you are driving a hybrid with a bunch of are “four to five times as efficient as a plane over a similar distance."

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 01, 2019, 11:40:13 PM »
elcid wrote: "... accused of having some interest in defending airlines"

You accused people of 'bashing airlines...'

Sounds rather like you were defending airlines, to me. Just sayin' :)

(And when the likes of KK rallies to your side, you know then that you are on the wrong side of the argument!  ;D :P 8) )

Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 01, 2019, 08:06:38 PM »
Aslan wrote:

...Open Arctic in winter can probably be sustained with greater CO2, moisture, enhanced cloud cover and ocean heat transport I think. For ocean heat transport, I am strongly convinced by the theory of Kerry Emmanuel, saying that more hurricanes, and more poleward hurricane, could increase the ocean heat transport...

Thanks, that's pretty much my understanding of it, too.

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 01, 2019, 08:00:49 PM »
The other thing that comparisons between air and car (and other terrestrial) travel miss is that most people take plane trips that they would simply never take by car (or by any other combination of terrestrial and maritime transport). The average plane trip is much farther than the average car trip.

So most of the time it's an unrealistic/false comparison, since the choice usually isn't between taking a trip by plane or car--it's between taking the trip by plane, or not going at all.

Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 01, 2019, 05:33:23 AM »
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:

• Big increases in regional water vapor with consequent effects on regional GW (likely with BOE)
• Big increases in low level clouds (obviously related to the previous)
• Big increases in regional methane, whether from land or sea or elsewhere
• Big increases in wave amplitude (likely with BOE) churning deep, warmer waters up toward the surfact
• Ever loopier Rossby waves bringing ever warmer, ever wetter air up from the south
• Total breakdown of atmospheric currents to 'one cell' 'equable climate'
• Big alterations in ocean currents (likely with BOE, but in what direction is hard to say)
• Ever stronger cyclones coming ever further north
• Other ever-larger and ever hotter subtropical airmasses moving north of the Arctic circle (as is happening now over Greenland)...

Those are just some things at the top of my brain. I'm sure others can think of more mechanisms that would hold more heat in the Arctic or transport more heat in. It's hard to say how important any one of these would be or how much they would interact to reinforce each other and how quickly. But given these and others, I don't see how one can say that it is completely unimaginable that year round BOE could be a 'thing' in the not so very distant future.

There are other things possible/observed wrt to the stratosphere that perhaps others could clarify more competently than I.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: July 31, 2019, 01:24:03 AM »
Well, it sounds like he's talking about branches that he is trimming from trees. You don't need an entire tree to do hugelkultur, as I understand it, though it's nice to have rather big pieces as the foundation, so to speak.

It sounds like your situation is different, but I've done versions of hugelkultur in very small areas. The basic principles can be used at pretty much any scale, again, as far as I understand it (being no expert).

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: July 31, 2019, 12:49:14 AM »
Good idea, vox. But Etienne will have to be sure it's dead before putting it into hugelkultur, or you'll have the same problem you did with putting it in the compost.

DrT...I'm not sure what you mean by a large land footprint in this case. The trees are already there. If you need he may need extra land to let the cut branches dry and die, I would have to agree.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 29, 2019, 10:00:36 PM »
k wrote: "We should have dutch pubs where we sing this ..." My daughter is hoping to open a brewery/pub some day in  the not too distant future in Utrecht (probably) and loves sing-alongs and the Velvet you may not have to wait long or travel far!

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