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Messages - Rob Dekker

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Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 09, 2019, 07:46:48 AM »
All this talk about GDP and happiness, versus the argument that problem is not so bad, seems so irrelevant.

After all, if we keep on emitting more CO2, the problem will continue to get worse, so it does not really matter where you draw the line when it is called 'catastrophic' for you personally.

So, in my humble opinion, the real issue is very simple :

   We either, at some point in time, stop burning fossil fuel, or we will cook this planet.

Whichever comes first.

The only (stupid) question remaining is : If we don't stop now, then WHEN ?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:34:09 AM »
The cybertruck will never exist.

Do you want to bet ?

The design does not make sense.

Actually it makes perfect sense.
Watch this guy explain it to you :

If it ever was built as show and sold, the cost would be about double the claimed $40k.

The components to make a truck a truck are heavy. In order to move those heavy components around takes a lot of battery power. (Significantly more power than moving a S or X). The basic truck component cost and battery cost would make the cybertruck cost at least $60k to build.

OK dude. Please make up your mind : Is it "double the claimed $40k" ? Or is it "at least $60k" ?

Either way, show us your math on why Tesla cannot possibly offer this truck for $40k.

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:11:00 AM »
I work on ICs. Integrated Circuits. Commonly known as chips. These are the evil machines that will certainly cause demise of the human race, and the Singularity.

I've worked on these suckers for the past 30 years, and let me tell you a secret :

I still have a job because these machines just don't work unless we tell them what to do.

That's my 2 cts on that subject.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: December 02, 2019, 08:01:06 AM »
First of all, if the Netherlands doesn't produce these pigs, some other country will.
And probably causing more emissions.

Ah yes but the nitrogen problem needs to be solved in the country because that is a EU law we signed on to and then not properly implemented. This is about our own emissions, our pollution.

So technically if someone across the border started a huge pig farm that would not be a problem.

Thanks Kassy.
Yet, you are just moving the problem over the border with this "policy" of closing pig farms.

Also, which exact EU law is the Netherlands implementing here ?

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 01, 2019, 09:43:41 AM »
Well, I haven't seen it, so I will take your word for it.

Wait. What ?
You are arguing with climate science deniers, but you haven't seen An Inconvenient Truth ?

There are a lot of useful facts and science in there, and deniers hang all kind of crap on that movie which was never in there.

So, yes, you need to watch that movie.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 29, 2019, 09:04:28 AM »
I was reading a very interesting paper and discussion between three climate professors on the so called tropical 'hot spot' at 'Climate dialogue', which is/was a platform based in the NL.

Yes, I remember that platform.
In fact, the first 'dialogue' there was about Arctic Sea Ice :

Both Neven and me posted comments there, which resulted in discussions by experts further down. Those were the good days !

The forum was not able to attract many scientists, and stated that :
In every discussion, at least one of the participating scientists was someone perceived to be a climate sceptic.

This concept givens an undue weight to skeptics and creates a false sense of disagreement about the facts. A sense that scientists are still arguing about AGW and its causes.
While in fact, the scientific discussion has long been settled.

The Dutch government must have realized that at some point and pulled the plug in 2015.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 27, 2019, 08:48:42 AM »
Do you have a link to that study from the University of Wageningen you refer to ?

This one?
The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.

I actually was looking for that study that determined the compensation per pig for closing the farm : "In het oosten van het land ligt de vergoeding per varken een stuk lager: op 52 euro. De vergoeding per varken is berekend door Wageningen University & Research."

But your link above is also a really good report, with lots of very interesting information.
Thank you !

For example, I found the graph of the CO2eq emissions from all of agriculture very informative.

It shows that methane emissions from farting cows are about as bad as the CO2 emitted from burning natural gas to heat all these greenhouses that sustain the Netherlands' miracle indoor agriculture. Now if we could only find a way to capture the methane from the cows and use it to heat the greenhouses :)

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 27, 2019, 08:35:50 AM »
Perhaps cars emit mainly N2O (GHG) and the pig farms mainly NO and NO2 (air pollution)?

From :
"Nitrous oxide plays hardly any role in air pollution, although it may have a significant impact on the ozone layer,[4] and is a significant greenhouse gas. "

"NOx gases are usually produced from the reaction among nitrogen and oxygen during combustion of fuels, such as hydrocarbons, in air; especially at high temperatures, such as occur in car engines.[1][2][3] In areas of high motor vehicle traffic, such as in large cities, the nitrogen oxides emitted can be a significant source of air pollution. "

According to that wiki page, NOx includes NO and NO2, and often also includes N2O, and that NOx is mostly emitted by burning hydrocarbons in car engines.

Also NOx emissions from pig farms (or agriculture in general) is minor compared to NOx emissions from car engines. See below a picture of the sources of NOx, from this reference :

Which shows that the vast majority of NOx still comes from traffic (even though it is much better than a few decades ago) and the energy industry (burning fossil fuels), and that NOx emissions from all of agriculture are still minor. Closing pig farms because of their minor NOx emissions is thus silly.

In fact, when above we talk about "stikstof" emissions from pig farms, it appears that we are talking about ammonia. Ammonia gets emitted from pig manure, and agriculture is the main source of ammonia emissions, as you can see in the second image below, from the same link.

Incidentally, ammonia is not a greenhouse gas, and the Netherlands is not exceeding its maximum ammonia quota yet, so that can't be the reason to close these pig farms either.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 26, 2019, 08:40:44 AM »
Varkenshouders in het zuiden van het land krijgen als ze overgaan op sanering veel meer geld per varken dan bedrijven in het oosten. De subsidieregeling voor het uitkopen van varkensboeren, 'warme sanering' genoemd, is in het leven geroepen om de stankoverlast en stikstofuitstoot van de sector te verminderen. Het ministerie van Landbouw maakte de tarieven van de subsidieregeling donderdag bekend.

Iemand die in het zuiden van het land tot sanering overgaat, ontvangt 151 euro per varken. In het oosten van het land ligt de vergoeding per varken een stuk lager: op 52 euro. De vergoeding per varken is berekend door Wageningen University & Research.

De reden voor het grote verschil in prijs per varken is een verschil in vraag en aanbod: in het oosten kan een varkenshouder nog volop varkensrechten kopen, in het zuiden zijn ze juist nog amper te krijgen. Het is voor boeren niet mogelijk om varkensrechten uit de andere regio te kopen.

also see

180 million euros are reserved for a buy out of pig farmers. The program is voluntary and the compensation depends on which of the two main areas the farmer is in. The prize in the south is higher because you cannot buy new pig farming rights for the area.

The aim is to reduce nitrogen emissions and smell problems too.

Just like the "policy" to switch home heating to electricity, this "policy" of emission reduction by eliminating pig farms does not make any sense either.

First of all, if the Netherlands doesn't produce these pigs, some other country will.
And probably causing more emissions.

Also, can't you catch the methane emissions from the manure (for cows as well) ? :
Would also compensate a bit for the lost gas after you shut down the gas wells :)

Finally, it seems that you are killing these pig farms not because of methane, but because of NOx emissions.

But aren't diesel/gasoline engines a much bigger contributor of NOx than pig manure ?

Do you have a link to that study from the University of Wageningen you refer to ?

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: November 24, 2019, 07:54:25 AM »
Although solving engineering problems is laudable, if you have a surface that gets constant traffic go with it's strength - not it's weakness; why not piezoelectric power generation?

I agree that could be beneficial.  But others here freaked because, they said, it would “reduce vehicle efficiency.”  ;)  ::)

Yes. It takes energy from cars at a loss.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 24, 2019, 07:36:41 AM »
So who came up with this idea to eliminate the "gas-grid" in the Netherlands ?

We are winding down the exploitation of some big gas fields sooner then planned because they cause earthquakes and damage to houses in the Groningen area. From 2018 on we import more gas then we export.

As you can see there is quite a lot of bad energy sources that will need to be replaced:


Natural gas is ideal (near 100% efficient) for heating so that would be the LAST thing to replace. Not the first !

I mean, if you want to reduce carbon emissions, then you should start replacing the least efficient, heavy stuff (coal for electricity generation) first, and the medium stuff (oil for transportation, natural gas for electricity) next, before you get to replace the most efficient, lightest stuff (nat gas for heating).

Your graph of Netherlands energy use (shown below) shows that your "overige energiedragers" (which is everything non-fossil) in 30 years did not even grow as large as you are still powering with coal today !

So I think the Netherlands needs to get serious about getting a lot of "overige energiedragers" (wind, biomass, nuclear, solar) online before you should be talking about shutting down your gas fields which the Netherlands completely depends on right now.

But that's just my opinion.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 23, 2019, 06:05:37 AM »
Cybertruck against Ford F-150 :

Cybertruck against a Porsche 911 :

Specs and pricing of that Tesla truck (without the shattered windows :o) :

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 22, 2019, 09:36:03 AM »
Thank you Kassy and RikW on giving your perspective on the Dutch policies regarding AGW.
I now live in live in California for the past 28 years, but I was born an raised in the Netherlands, and my heart will always be in the low lands.

I remember Holland being a pragmatic nation, no-nonsense, two feet on the ground, finding innovative solutions for real problems, in many ways similar to the line of thinking here in California.

But when RikW writes this here, I start to have some doubts :

Well, in the Netherlands we are going off-grid with gas.

If I remember correctly since a couple of years it isn't obligated anymore when building a new houses to connect it to the gas-grid and in 2050 the gas-grid should be gone and everything should be done electric. So the gas network will be written off in 30 years.

Heating homes with electricity ?
This does not seem smart at all, especially since most electricity in the Netherlands is still generated from ... wait for it ... natural gas !

So who came up with this idea to eliminate the "gas-grid" in the Netherlands ?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 18, 2019, 09:40:55 AM »
It would be poetic justice for mankind if this frivolous lawsuit by impostor shareholders is the one thing that brings Tesla down, and with it, the transition to an electric world dies, and us with it.

The case has no merits and the plaintiff is downright criminal, but this would be a very fitting end to our response to climate change. We destroy ourselves by polluting the air and we destroy ourselves by destroying the solutions to air pollution. It makes perfect sense.
"frivolous lawsuit by impostor shareholders
The case has no merits and the plaintiff is downright criminal,"

Statements without data have no value.
The statements on the real financial state of SolarCityat the time of acquisition by Tesla seem to based on real data. Tesla's bankers said - don't do it....

With all due respect, gerontocrat, but I think Archimid here has the better data here :

In August 2016, when Tesla acquired SolarCity, Tesla's stock price was $220 or so.
Share price is now $350, so shareholders have nothing to complain about.

The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 18, 2019, 08:59:58 AM »
A joined publication by The Intercept (not Glenn Greenwald) and the New York Times shows Iran's influence in Iraq :

The Iran Cables: Secret Documents Show How Tehran Wields Power in Iraq
Hundreds of leaked intelligence reports shed light on a shadow war for regional influence — and the battles within the Islamic Republic’s own spy divisions

The unprecedented leak exposes Tehran’s vast influence in Iraq, detailing years of painstaking work by Iranian spies to co-opt the country’s leaders, pay Iraqi agents working for the Americans to switch sides, and infiltrate every aspect of Iraq’s political, economic, and religious life.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 13, 2019, 11:12:59 AM »
About that "Model 3 received a 1st place in its class" in Germany :

Tesla Model 3 = #1 In EV Sales In Germany In Record Month

Regarding polling for the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination has a great collection of polls both broad and deep :

Enter "National Polls" for an overview of nation-wide polls.
Or enter your favorite state and see the polls for that state.

They also include the time period when each poll was taken, and a rating for the quality of each poll.

All in all, a very valuable resource.

Update on the realclearpolitics poll average : I prefer Sanders, but it seems that the US public still prefers Biden.

One reason may be a reality check :
The US is fed-up with Trump's hypocrisy, and wants a return to the reason and integrity and normalcy of the Obama period.
Which is Biden.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 09, 2019, 06:38:03 AM »
Tesla in the news - 5 years ago:

"It will take established carmakers all but five minutes to put upstart Tesla in its place, and out of business."

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 22, 2019, 08:13:18 AM »

The politics / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:04:54 AM »
Hillary made this statement :

“I’m not making any predictions, but I think they’ve [Russia] got their eye on somebody who is currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third-party candidate,” and
“She’s the favorite of the Russians. They have a bunch of sites and bots and other ways of supporting her so far.

in a transparent reference to Tulsi Gabbard.

Tulsi has been treated favorably by the Russian state press RT and Sputnik and by Fox News too, where she frequently appears on the Tucker Carlson show.

So there is some truth to these 'favorite of the Russians' and 'grooming' and 'eye on somebody' remarks.

But we'll see. If Tulsi runs as a third party candidate, Clinton's remarks would prove to be quite prophetic.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 22, 2019, 06:02:28 AM »
Don't forget, the US!

Allies gone, credibility gone, trust gone, hegemony gone.

Down the drain.


It is unprecedented how much damage Trump has done (to the US, to our allies, to democracy, to honor and respect, to the environment, to the poor, to the disabled, to immigrants, to international trade, to just about anything and anyone else but Trump himself and maybe Putin and Erdogan) in the short time he has been in office.

Trump. Has. To. Go. Period.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 21, 2019, 07:39:53 AM »
Donald Trump currently has:

- No Secretary of Energy

- No Homeland Security Director

- No Director of National Intelligence

- No Deputy Director of National Intelligence

- No ICE Director or Deputy ICE Director

- No FEMA Director

- No White House Chief of Staff

- No clue

h/t @PalmerReport

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 19, 2019, 10:25:25 AM »
Latest launch of a Delta IV Heavy.
Note that none of the boosters, nor the first stage rocket, is landing. They are all discarded and plunge into the ocean.

Which shows that SpaceX (recovering boosters and first stage) is years, if not decades, ahead of the competition at this time, launching into LEO at a lower cost than any other carrier operational at this time.

The rest / Re: Russia in Ukraine
« on: October 17, 2019, 09:35:07 AM »
Ukrainians hold a banner reading 'No to capitulation!' during their rally against signing 'Steinmeier formula' by Ukrainian delegation in Minsk, on the Independence Square in Kiev, Ukraine, 6 October 2019. [Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA/EFE]

Thousands of people gathered in Kyiv’s main square on Sunday (6 October) to protest against President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s deal with Moscow to grant autonomy to Ukraine’s pro-Russian rebel-held east as part of efforts to end a five-year conflict there.

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 15, 2019, 06:26:16 AM »
Apropos nothing in particular:

Trump Just Enlisted America in a New Axis of Evil

Gen Hayden refers to this article :

Trump has for the first time in our history aligned the U.S. with our enemies and against everything we should stand for and that is in our interest.

The article is very worthwhile reading in full, but if you don't want to do that, skip all the fact-checks and read at least the conclusions in the last paragraph :

This is at once not just a four-fold regional policy failure for the U.S.—betraying the Kurds, throwing ISIS a lifeline, strengthening Russia and Iran and validating the authoritarian regime of Erdogan—it is also something much worse. It represents a new kind of collapse of moral leadership from a U.S. that has done grave damage before. It represents a new kind of breakdown of our system for harnessing the best minds and resources of the U.S. when making national security decisions. And it represents a low point in presidential leadership from a president who at this point can only be counted on to act in the interest of himself, his family or his apparent sponsors in the Kremlin.

Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: October 12, 2019, 09:31:22 AM »
End result of the NSIDC Sep. average sea ice extent was 4.32 million km^2 :

This is very close to the July (based on June data) ARCUS Sea Ice Prediction Network median of 4.28 million km^2 :

And not too far from our own ASIF prediction (3.75 to 4.25 million km^2).

Thanks everybody !

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 12, 2019, 08:41:32 AM »
Five criminals walk into a prison bar :

Two are in jail. Another about to be arrested. One is being impeached. And one is wondering where mother is.

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 12, 2019, 08:24:23 AM »
International reaction to Turkey's invasion of Syria :

Notably absent from condemnation are Russia and the US (Putin and Trump).

Why am I not surprised.

Obama built an alliance with the Kurds.
The Kurds then defeated ISIS in Eastern Syria with US help.
They lost 11,000 fighters along the way.

For six months there was peace in Eastern Syria.

Then Trump comes in and betrays the Kurds, and then insults them, and
allows Turkey to bomb them. Many will die.

For nothing.

The politics / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: October 11, 2019, 08:55:18 AM »
But the fact is he didn't.

The fact - and we all know how you love facts - is that Hunter Biden received 50K per month for sitting on that Ukraine gas company board, without having any experience in that sector....

Why is paying $50k / month unreasonable for making sure a corporation adheres to the highest international standards of business conduct ?

Seriously. Why is that a problem ?

For a corporation that is under investigation and situated in a country where corruption is a major point of concern, it seems very reasonable decision to me to attract international businessmen on the board to advise the company on how to fix any issues of business conduct and $50k/month is NOT a lot of money to pay for that.

What is unreasonable is your point of view seen against the OTHER facts that you seem to ignore :

I don't hear you complain about Trump's kids making millions while holding positions in the White House.

I also don't hear you complain about Rick Perry trying to install a new board at Naftogaz, Ukraine's largest gas corporation, so that Trump's friends could profit greatly. The conflicts of interest are blatantly obvious :

You are just tunnel-visioned complaining about Hunter Biden, who served on the board of Burisma, which has been investigated and cleared of wrongdoing already by the Ukrainian prosecutor general after an investigation that ended in 2017.

No offense, but your pro-Trump bias is showing very, very clearly.

The politics / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: October 09, 2019, 08:12:38 AM »
Kyle Kulinski explains why Trump is better at political theatre than silly 'liberals':

Kulinski is really starting to piss me off.

Let's do some fact checkin.

Just go to the first claim, at 0:43 into the video :
Kulinski claims that Biden met with a "Ukraine gas Exec", implying that Biden's son did something wrong.

But the fact is he didn't.

Not just did Hunter Biden do nothing wrong, and an investigation into his business dealings by the Ukrainian prosecutor general in 2017 confirmed that, but the photo shows a picture with Devon Archer, a US business man and fellow board member who was never a "Ukraine gas exec.".

Neven, can you PLEASE stop posting the spin, and the propaganda, and the lies vented by guys like Kulinski and Jimmy Dore, so that I don't have to expose them every time ?

Thank you !

The politics / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: October 09, 2019, 07:53:16 AM »
Remember during all the Benghazi investigations when Obama blocked access to documents and refused to let Hillary testify ?

Of course you don't, because it never happened.

Obama handed over everything and Hillary sat in testimony 11 hours straight, because they had nothing to hide and they aren't dipshit man-babies like Trump and his cronies.

Trump has got to go, and the whole corrupt GOP swamp with him.

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 09, 2019, 07:33:30 AM »
In my opinion, it is a huge mistake to pull out of Syria now.

The US was a stabilizing force in the region, with no major events in Eastern Syria over the past year or so since the Kurdish SDF and the US-led coalition destroyed ISIS in Eastern Syria.

We should be there for a LONG time to come, at least as long as a permanent peace agreement is not negotiated yet.

Now, after Trump took the US out in an impulsive decision, we see the results immediately :

- ISIS sleeper cells awakened and there are now at least 3 suicide bomber attacks in Raqqa and fights are erupting.

- Now that US is pulling out, Russian/Assad forces are on the move, in what will likely escalate the violence in Syria and prolong the civil war, with many more casualties.

- Meanwhile, Turkey is preparing for a full - scale invasion, with an agenda to eliminate the very same Kurdish forces that helped eliminate ISIS in Eastern Syria.

Another great win for Trump !

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 09, 2019, 07:14:40 AM »
Both Pat Buchanan and Danny Sjursen have weighed in at antiwar on Empire in Syria:


"Trump tweeted this defense of his order to U.S. forces not to resist Turkish intervention and the creation of a Turkish corridor in Syria from the eastern bank of the Euphrates to Iraq: "The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting Turkey for decades. … I held off this fight for … almost 3 years, but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home." "

"We have to consider reality. Assad, the Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah have won the war against the Sunni rebels we and our Arab friends armed and equipped. "

"And how long must we stay in Syria to defend the Kurds against the Turks? Forever?"

"al-Qaida and ISIS are in many more places today than they were when we intervened in the Middle East. Must we fight forever over there – to be secure over here? "

" if Trump’s decision risks throwing the region into "further chaos," what, if not wholesale U.S. intervention, created the "present chaos"? "

"Among those objecting most loudly to an American withdrawal from the forever wars of the Middle East are those who were the most enthusiastic about plunging us in."

"And, yes, there is a price to be paid for letting go of an empire, but it is almost always less than the price of holding on."


"First, the (mostly) good news: President Trump appears poised, finally, to end the US military mission in Northeast Syria. The move would constitute the first actual follow-through on the promises of candidate Trump to avoid "stupid" and terminate "endless" Mideast wars. That’s no small thing."

"Personally, I think it just as well that the US military get out of a risky morass in yet another fractured Mideast country. That said, this latest in a long line of American betrayals (often of Kurds), demonstrates the broader tragedy of US imperialism and hyper-interventionism. Time and again, Washington has used and abused it’s "partners" on the ground in the Mideast locales it regularly invades and occupies."

"As for the Kurds, consider the latest betrayal in Northeast Syria to be at least the third American sellout of these stateless, at-risk people. It’s unlikely to be the last. None of that should be taken to imply the US should remain in Syria indefinitely – although that’s precisely what the neocon/neolib media and intelligence apparatus now clamors for – but is a reminder of the "blowback" associated with US militarism, imperialism, and hasty interventionism."

"My advice to the various peoples of the region: next time, and there will be a next time, don’t even consider trusting Uncle Sam."


So the opinion is that it's a bad thing that the US withdraws from Syria, betraying the Kurds, but it's a good thing the US withdraws from Syria.

When you make up your mind, sidd, you let me know, OK ?

And of all people, you quote Pat Buchanan ?
The special consultant to U.S. Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Ronald Reagan ?

Couldn't you at least TRY to hide your preferences ?

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 08, 2019, 11:10:59 AM »
...Also, the U.S. turns its back on its Kurdish allies (who fought and won against the ISIS Caliphate). They have long memories in the Middle East.

Correction : Trump turns his back on Kurdish allies. Not the U.S.

Trump's decision to pull back troops and allow Erdogan to proceed with his military offensive in Northern Syria resulted in scorn across the political spectrum from Bernie Sanders all the way to Lindsey Graham.

Expect Trump to back-paddle over the next couple of days.

The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: October 08, 2019, 10:12:47 AM »
Matt Taibi, IMO one of the best journalists alive today:

I like Taibbi, but why don't you post something he actually wrote, instead of a TV show about him ?

Also, if you think he is the "one of the best journalists alive" couldn't you at least spell his name right ?

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 08, 2019, 08:58:31 AM »
This SpaceX thread is nice, away from the political threads that get so polarized and hijacked by off-topic arguments.

Here something cool about SpaceX :

Elon in discussion with fellow-nerd and you-tuber "The Everyday Astronaut" talking space tech :

About how to speed up engineering progress, and
stainless steel versus carbon fiber, and
about what's the best rocket fuel.

I would love technical discussions like this on the ASIF.

Please un-censor me, Neven, and censor the political attack-dogs that smear Elon and SpaceX and Tesla for political reasons instead. Thanks !

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 08, 2019, 05:45:34 AM »
P.S.:  *Reminder:  Boring Company machines run on electricity, whereas most boring machines use diesel engines that require an earth atmosphere....

Can you provide a link?
... the innovations The Boring Company says it’s bringing are to the business of tunneling itself: having the tunnel-boring machines run electric instead of on diesel fuel; tripling the tunnel-boring machine’s power; automating the machine so it doesn’t rely on human operators; and allowing it to operate continuously.....

But this is really something for the "Boring" Co thread, not the SpaceX thread.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 06, 2019, 09:45:37 AM »
Tesla is changing the world, one EV at a time.

Let's run the numbers, shall we ? :

As of Q2 2019, there were some 611,000 Teslas delivered :
with the 97,000 Q3 2019 numbers that makes 708,000 vehicles on the road today.

Let's look at carbon emissions saved for that fleet :

US Department of Energy numbers :
show that if you charge an EV from the US average grid electricity, you emit about 1/3rd the CO2 of a gasoline vehicle. And if you charge from the California grid, that reduces to 1/5th the CO2 emissions. And each of these numbers get better as we add more and more renewables to the grid.

Average fuel economy of a US car is about 24 miles/gallon. For average 12,000 miles/year that is 500 gallons/year/car. Driving a Tesla, on average US electric grid, thus saves about 2/3 or 333 gallons/year/car compared to a ICE vehicle.

For the 708,000 Teslas on the road, that means saving 236,000,000/365/42 = 15,395 barrels/day in gasoline saved.

Now in the bigger picture (100 million Bpd global oil consumption), 15,395 barrels/day is not much yet.

But it's a start. And it will be growing as electric cars become more widespread and electricity portfolios become more renewable.

Can you name ANY other company that saved that much in fossil fuels ?

And if you want to get personal, it seems to me that Elon's own carbon footprint had a very good ROI.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 28, 2019, 05:47:03 AM »
Saving weight costs money which is why it has to be force by law like all other law enforced technological hurdles that have been implemented over the last 4 decades.

EVs have re-generative braking, and thus their energy use is largely independent of their mass.

So why do you want to limit the weight of a vehicle exactly ?

If your goal was to reduce energy, imposing a speed limit would be much more effective than imposing a weight limit, as shown in the charts below.

Either way, your suggested weight limit "by law" would be only in favor of ICE vehicles and against the use of EVs, and specifically against Teslas, since they have the biggest (heaviest) batteries.

If that was your intent, then your argument makes perfect sense.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 26, 2019, 10:19:28 AM »
I see oodles of kids loving the fact that there can be a world where dirty, polluting ICE vehicles no longer exist, and appreciating when others are motivated enough to spend the money to help make that happen just a little bit faster.

Your obsession with internal combustion engines is odd. I think your hatred is misplaced.

Fossil fuels power everything and make everything because they are extremely energy dense. That is it, that is all. Nothing else even comes close.

The "transition" is not to fossil fuel alternative (hint: none exist), but to using fossil fuels for longer lasting purposes so that over time less and less need to be used because enough capital has been built.

Yes, EVs are a more efficient use of fossil fuel energy than ICE vehicles. And yes, making a wind turbine is a more efficient use of fossil fuels than burning it to turn a power plant turbine. But these things are simply less bad as far as emissions are concerned. They are not "good". The real changes need that are actually GOOD are way-of-life changes. People need to NOT drive cars. People need to NOT rely on power hungry appliances. Those things are cheer worthy. Cheering Tesla on in the name of the climate is like cheering on the torturer who uses the least spiky bludgeon. 

Y'all seem to think that fossil fuels are simply the enemy. There are major movements in the world today supporting fossil fuel bans. This is akin to outlawing anything invented since the bronze age.

What separates humans from other animals is our ability to control fire. As we advanced, we have found denser and denser energy stores to burn. There is no escaping this basic reality. If you are opposed to people burning things, the only answer is for humans to all die off or at least revert back to pre-fire days like a million years ago (which we are no longer biologically suited for, so basically death is the only answer).

I did not know that this train of (doomsday) thought still existed, but, surprise, surprise, there it is again.

Sigh. Here we go again :

The problem of carbon emissions is not solved by demanding people to stop driving cars or even telling them to use public transportation instead, or putting limits on the weight of cars or telling them to stop flying.

Apart from the fact that these authoritarian measures will cause severe backlash from the people, they also do very little to reduce the carbon footprint.

And even if they do, for each person reducing car use, there are 4 people around the planet who want to get out of poverty and into some sort of middle-class where they can live a decent life.

So the problem is NOT going to be solved by "changing lifestyles".

The problem with carbon emissions is ONLY going to be solved by TAKING THE CARBON OUT.

That means electrifying our transportation systems, de-carbonizing our energy systems, and de-carbonizing everything else we do.

As an example, if you would force people to drive a smaller car, you may save 50% in car carbon emissions, but they are going to be upset and fight you for life.

If instead, like Tesla, you offer an EV which outperforms their ICE vehicle, they reduce their car carbon emissions by 80% (current California electric grid carbon portfolio) and they will support you for life.

And as we de-carbonize the electric grid with more and more renewables, that number gets even better.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 25, 2019, 11:29:52 AM »
...cap the max allowed wealth and reduce the weight of cars to a certain amount per seat, i.e. 200kg per seat. That would either make a big car twice as expensive or lighter and most probably smaller in the process.

Size and weight is what has to be moved around and the more weight per passenger the less efficient, no matter the energy source. All energy has to be produced and the electricity used by a TESLA or E-Tron SUV could be used better for other things, i.e to replace some nuclear power plants are even coal power plants.

As long as we are not 100% renewable on electricity, every KW used by a car is missing elsewhere or producing CO2.

The heavier the cars are, the faster they are, hence the bigger the batteries are, the more elsewhere needed electricity goes into that car unnecessarily.

If I had a say, i would cap car size to 2 seats per person in a household and that would make a single household owning 500kg cars max. Of course with exceptions for taxis, divorced parents that still drive their kids etc. But generally a single household does not need a 7-seater at 2.7 tons
and a childless couple neither.

etc. etc.

If I were a climate change denier and a paid fossil fuel advocate, I would not be able to put out a better post than you just did :

- Limit capital, so that the capital-heavy investments in renewables will not happen, and
- Limit weight of cars so that cars with a battery are at a disadvantage, and
- Argue that energy for EVs could be used better for other purposes, and
- As long as we are not 100% renewable, all electricity for EVs is emitting CO2, and 
- bringing up non-sensical arguments like "The heavier the cars are, the faster they are,", and
- imposing bizarre authoritarian rules on private transportation, like limit 2 per vehicle, excluding " divorced parents that still drive their kids ".

I have to admit that the latter two seem just... weird... but the rest puts you solidly in the fossil-fuel-advocates arena.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 25, 2019, 10:44:29 AM »
I don't have a problem with Teslas at fast charging stations, anyone can wait 20-30 minutes (although someone gave me the finger in the Netherlands because it was going to take 10 minutes). I have a problem in Graz because I need to charge to be able to get back home. It is true that they should be building more chargers there (they built a lot of them a few years ago, when it was a hype for municipalities to do their share to 'stop AGW'), but if I'd have a 50 kWh battery, I'd be charging at home 90% of the time and the rest at a (Tesla) supercharger.

If you require a re-charge when going to Graz (60 km) and back, you need a bigger battery.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 25, 2019, 05:21:28 AM »
My main issue with Tesla (besides the blatant contribution to consumer culture conditioning) is personal: they are charger hogs because their batteries are much too large. As soon as I see a Tesla at a public charging station, I know I can forget about using it for the next 3 hours.

It makes me angry because I'm not allowed to use the supermegacharger network with my i-MiEV, but Teslas can go hog public charging stations at will. This only emphasizes that Tesla cars are nothing more than elitist toys, and it doesn't look like the company aims at being anything else.

Moving away from fossil fuels means we need to electrify all ground transportation.
Not just your small vehicle, and not just the sedans that Tesla makes, but also pickup trucks and semi's.

So in the future, we are going to need a LOT more charger stations, with a LOT more power.

For your immediate complaint :
New charger stations are being built all the time. Here is a list of new ones in your area :

Also, Tesla supercharger network in Austria is not so dense yet.
I think the nearest one to you is in Gleisdorf (30 km?), and then there is one in Graz.
Once more people buy more Teslas, Tesla will install more superchargers.

And by the way, these Tesla superchargers are 150 kW or 250 kW.
They would totally fry your tiny 16 kWh battery.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 24, 2019, 08:23:26 AM »
I disagree with it too, but not for all the reasons GSY quoted.  I have two reasons, both of which I believe are relevant to the Tesla success/failure story.

Not that I have not said all that GSY said and many times too.  But they are not pertinent to this situation.

My first issue is that we had, over the last decade, successfully made AGW and Climate Change, into a matter of science which intruded into our physical world and needed to be dealt with on the basis of science.

Finally we had a path where politicians, Even Trump, were struggling to make it a political football.

Are you living under a rock ?
Trump killed off whatever little progress any other president before him (especially Obama) made.

But now we come to my second point.

Young people today have little focus and even less stamina.

With that kind of opinion, I'd say this :
Love to chat, tea and the rest, but have no time.
We have work to do.

There is a climate crisis going on, with eco-systems collapsing, and all you guys talk about is politics.

At least Elon is building electric cars.

What are YOU doing to solve the climate crisis ?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 24, 2019, 07:49:24 AM »
“We are a wave of change. Together and united, we are unstoppable. This is what people power looks like. We will rise to the challenge."

Does anyone here disagree with that ?

I disagree with it.
Renewable energy is less than 5% of total.

You made Greta's point.

You need to shut up and get out of the way, because we have work to do.

We need to de-carbonize our energy systems and switch to electric vehicles.
And we need to start NOW.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 21, 2019, 10:49:04 AM »
Today, Climate Strike. A quarter of a million people in New York City alone.
3 Million in Europe and Asia, and a similar amount in the Americas, took to the street.

All inspired by Greta Thunberg

Elon re-tweeted this from Scientific American :

“We are a wave of change. Together and united, we are unstoppable. This is what people power looks like. We will rise to the challenge," said 16-year-old climate activist @GretaThunberg who led global protests today demanding action on climate change. #ClimateStrike

Does anyone here disagree with that ?

If so, you may like the response Elon got, and not what he said in return :

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 19, 2019, 06:21:45 AM »

Now, do you have the same "cult-leading fraudulent liar" feelings about other successful guys like, I don't know, Jeff Bezos for example ?

If not, why not ?

Whataboutism!  ;D

Neven, I know you don't like me on your forum, but this was just a question.
That cannot, almost by definition, be designated as "whataboutism".

What would be "whataboutism" would be if I would have made a statement. Something like this :

GoSouthYoungins, you forgot that Jeff Bezos is much more a "cult-leading fraudulent liar" than Musk has ever been, having his own personal "Amazon troll factory", a cult group of paid trolls that consistently sends out messages about how great Amazon is as an employer.

That would be a correct statement, since it is true.

However, it would be "whataboutism" since I made a statement, rather than asking a question.

Sorry for going OT a bit, but in this war-of-words (pro- and against Musk/Tesla) it is important to differentiate.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 17, 2019, 09:25:01 AM »
Back in 2012 I was a big fan of Tesla. Over the years I grew suspicious. Then the Solar City thing really made me question if Musk was a fraud. Finally the 420 funding secured tweet resolved the issue. Ever since I have hated the cult-leading fraudulent liar cuz, you know, I'm a decent person who has some morals.


Now, do you have the same "cult-leading fraudulent liar" feelings about other successful guys like, I don't know, Jeff Bezos for example ?

If not, why not ?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 11, 2019, 10:31:52 AM »

But to smear Elon for having Cobalt in his batteries is a new low, even for you Terry.

Your reading comprehension needs a little work Rob, but your ad-hominems are still right up there. :P

Nice projecting, Terry.

Your comment was this :

The Musk family is certainly no stranger to the mining business.  :-\
It was after all Musk Emeralds that allowed them to live the opulent lifestyle they enjoyed and that fronted Elon's Empire.
I've no doubt that lessons learned digging for African Emeralds can be applied to Congolese Cobalt.

which was not just off-topic for the thread, but a smear at Musk and his Cobalt use in Tesla batteries.

Why, Terry ? What is your problem with Musk ?

Afraid of somebody actually making a difference when it comes to carbon emissions ?

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