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Messages - OldLeatherneck

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51
The rest / Re: 2016 Predictions
« on: January 05, 2016, 01:31:25 AM »
2016 is starting off to be a terrible disruptive year.

1.  The Arctic Ocean started 2016 with above freezing air temperatures approaching the North Pole.
2.  While it is not surprising that the Saudis would execute 47 people in one day, it is surprising that they risked elevating tensions with Iran by executing a prominent Shiite Cleric.
3.  Iranian protesters have stormed the Saudi Embassy in Teheran.
4.  Saudi Arabia and many of it's neighbors have broken diplomatic relations with Iran.
5.  Here in America, an armed band of lunatic, right wing, racist militia members have occupied a Federal Wildlife Refuge

Here we are only 4 days into the new year and it would have been hard to envision a worse start to the new year.

Unfortunately, I don't have much hope for improvement on the climate front, the middle east conflicts front nor the political front in the US.

Fasten your seatbelts, 2016 is going to be a tumultuous year!!

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2016, 12:52:03 AM »
When one considers the impacts of the recent warm pulse of air entering the arctic on the Atlantic side and the near term potential of a similar event on the pacific side, to be followed periodically by the effects of El Nino, I don't see how the February/March maximums for SIe and  SIA will not set new record lows.  Possibly by significant margins.

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 04, 2016, 10:01:48 PM »
Does anyone have a clue as to when ADS-NIPR (IJIS) will start updating their website with the current Extent data for 2016??

54
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: December 31, 2015, 12:20:24 AM »
Does anyone know how long this warm pulse is going to linger over the Arctic??

55
The rest / Re: 2016 Predictions
« on: December 30, 2015, 09:04:50 PM »

(The Cubs will take a 3-0 lead in the NLCS, only to lose four straight in dramatic fashion. Cubs fans all over the country will schedule appointments with their therapists.)

And may the fleas of a thousand camels find a happy home in the nether regions of your anatomy!!

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: December 28, 2015, 10:15:02 PM »
I understand why traffic to this site drops after the melt season but am not sure why it drops so severely. .........

When I started this thread towards the end of the melt season, I had every intention of staying more active because I wanted to become more familiar with how a refreeze season progresses.  While my absence had nothing to do with health or family issues, other events prevented my having the time to devote to active blogging.  So here I am again....hopefully to stay more active until a planned trip to Europe in the May/June time frame.

When I started lurking here again a few weeks ago, I was astounded by the lack of ice in the Sea of Okhotz as well as how little ice was forming in the Bering.  I'm even somewhat shocked that there is  so little ice along the St. Lawrence River in Canada.  I'm beginning to think that we may have another winter with a new record low for Extent and possible area as well.  However, I would be shocked the  ADS-NIPR Extent were to end up lower than 13.5M Km2.

It also unnerving to think of the possibility that the North Pole could see above freezing temperatures within the next week.  What could that mean to the state of the ice for the remainder of the refreeze season??

57
The rest / Re: 2016 Predictions
« on: December 28, 2015, 09:55:47 PM »
What a fun way to jump back on the Forum after a longer than anticipated hiatus.  Hopefully will be more active in the months to come. 

1. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS-NIPR) will set a new record low maximum in February or March of 2016, peaking between 13.5 M and 13.8M Km2.

2. September 2016 minimums for both area and extent will set new record lows, although not low enough to declare an ice-free Arctic.

3. By September of 2016, Neven will be able to go windsurfing within 50 nautical miles of the North Pole.

4. Globally, there will be one ore more mass casualty event due to AGW/CC induced extreme weather.

5. The US Presidential election will continue to be dominated by the bizarre theatrics and histrionics of many of the fear-mongering GOP candidates who have no idea of how to govern in a complex global society.

6. The Chicago Cubs may actually buy enough talent this off-season to advance to the World Series in October 2016.


58
Consequences / Re: Will Climate Change Lead to Genocide?
« on: September 16, 2015, 11:49:48 PM »
My biggest fear is that nationalist movements in the developed world will demand a government based on closed borders and a fascist-like demand for ideological purity, based on religion, race, ethnic origin or political philosophy.

You mean like Trump?  ;)

I fear we are heading that direction.

Exactly!

There is growing element of the right wing base of the GOP that is very opposed to any immigration reform and is the most anti-science element of the party.

59
Consequences / Re: Will Climate Change Lead to Genocide?
« on: September 16, 2015, 01:01:45 AM »
Excellent thread and from reading the article and when thinking about different organisations seeking to dominate the main populace, I think of the Islamic State which is a group that is hell-bent on dominating the world and killing anyone who opposes it.....................................

Theta,

I wouldn't obsess too much about ISIS.  While their killings are brutal and certainly qualify as crimes against humanity, in geopolitical terms they are no threat to the stability of any of the world's major powers.  Yes, they may launch isolated attacks in western nations and even kill hundreds or thousands, but they have no means, leadership, logistics, troops or finances, to march armies across Europe, let alone North America.

Case in point: Before my retirement, in the  US Defense Industry, I was responsible for planning and conducting workshops to develop competitive strategies.  During the course of those workshops, I had the opportunity to meet dozens of retired Generals and Admirals whom we had hired as consultants.  A few short years after 9/11, I was having a beer with  a retired Admiral after one of our workshops.  The conversation led to a discussion about the threat of Al-Queda.  The Admiral looked at me and said "Al-Queda is nothing more than a bunch  of "ankle-biters".  While President Obama made a horrendous political mistake when he called ISIS the "junior varsity", he was correct in not deeming a serious threat to the stability and economy of the US.

My biggest fear is that nationalist movements in the developed world will demand a government based on closed borders and a fascist-like demand for ideological purity, based on religion, race, ethnic origin or political philosophy. 

60
Consequences / Will Climate Change Lead to Genocide?
« on: September 15, 2015, 11:33:26 PM »
The Next Genocide
by: By TIMOTHY SNYDER, New York Times Sunday Review, SEPT. 12, 2015

LINK to full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/13/opinion/sunday/the-next-genocide.html?_r=0

Selected quotes: - My Highlights
Quote

Today we think of the Nazi Final Solution as some dark apex of high technology. It was in fact the killing of human beings at close range during a war for resources.....................

The Holocaust may seem a distant horror whose lessons have already been learned. But sadly, the anxieties of our own era could once again give rise to scapegoats and imagined enemies, while contemporary environmental stresses could encourage new variations on Hitler’s ideas,...............

The quest for German domination was premised on the denial of science. Hitler’s alternative to science was the idea of Lebensraum. Germany needed an Eastern European empire because only conquest, and not agricultural technology, offered the hope of feeding the German people. ..........

The pursuit of peace and plenty through science, he claimed in “Mein Kampf,” was a Jewish plot to distract Germans from the necessity of war......................................

As exotic as it sounds, the concept of Lebensraum is less distant from our own ways of thinking than we believe. Germany was blockaded during World War I, dependent on imports of agricultural commodities and faced real uncertainties about its food supply. Hitler transformed these fears into a vision of absolute conquest for total security. Lebensraum linked a war of extermination to the improvement of lifestyle. The chief Nazi propagandist, Joseph Goebbels, could therefore define the purpose of a war of extermination as “a big breakfast, a big lunch and a big dinner.” He conflated lifestyle with life.

....................................................................

Climate change threatens to provoke a new ecological panic. So far, poor people in Africa and the Middle East have borne the brunt of the suffering.

The mass murder of at least 500,000 Rwandans in 1994 followed a decline in agricultural production for several years before. Hutus killed Tutsis not only out of ethnic hatred, but to take their land, as many genocidaires later admitted.

In Sudan, drought drove Arabs into the lands of African pastoralists in 2003. The Sudanese government sided with the Arabs and pursued a policy of eliminating the Zaghawa, Masalit and Fur peoples in Darfur and surrounding regions.

Climate change has also brought uncertainties about food supply back to the center of great power politics. China today, like Germany before the war, is an industrial power incapable of feeding its population from its own territory, and is thus dependent on unpredictable international markets.

............................................................

How might such a scenario unfold? China is already leasing a tenth of Ukraine’s arable soil, and buying up food whenever global supplies tighten. During the drought of 2010, Chinese panic buying helped bring bread riots and revolution to the Middle East. The Chinese leadership already regards Africa as a long-term source of food. Although many Africans themselves still go hungry, their continent holds about half of the world’s untilled arable land. Like China, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea are interested in Sudan’s fertile regions — and they have been joined by Japan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in efforts to buy or lease land throughout Africa.

Nations in need of land would likely begin with tactfully negotiated leases or purchases; but under conditions of stress or acute need, such agrarian export zones could become fortified colonies, requiring or attracting violence.

Hitler spread ecological panic by claiming that only land would bring Germany security and by denying the science that promised alternatives to war. By polluting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, the United States has done more than any other nation to bring about the next ecological panic, yet it is the only country where climate science is still resisted by certain political and business elites. These deniers tend to present the empirical findings of scientists as a conspiracy and question the validity of science — an intellectual stance that is uncomfortably close to Hitler’s.

.................................

The full consequences of climate change may reach America only decades after warming wreaks havoc in other regions. And by then it will be too late for climate science and energy technology to make any difference. Indeed, by the time the door is open to the demagogy of ecological panic in the United States, Americans will have spent years spreading climate disaster around the world.

THE European Union, by contrast, takes global warming very seriously, but its existence is under threat. As Africa and the Middle East continue to warm and wars rage, economic migrants and war refugees are making perilous journeys to flee to Europe. In response, European populists have called for the strict enforcement of national borders and the end of the union. Many of these populist parties are supported by Russia, which is openly pursuing a divide-and-conquer policy with the aim of bringing about European disintegration.

Russia’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine has already shattered the peaceful order that Europeans had come to take for granted. The Kremlin, which is economically dependent on the export of hydrocarbons to Europe, is now seeking to make gas deals with individual European states one by one in order to weaken European unity and expand its own influence. Meanwhile, President Vladimir V. Putin waxes nostalgic for the 1930s, while Russian nationalists blame gays, cosmopolitans and Jews for antiwar sentiment. None of this bodes well for Europe’s future — or Russia’s.

When mass killing is on the way, it won’t announce itself in the language we are familiar with. The Nazi scenario of 1941 will not reappear in precisely the same form, but several of its causal elements have already begun to assemble.

It is not difficult to imagine ethnic mass murder in Africa, which has already happened; or the triumph of a violent totalitarian strain of Islamism in the parched Middle East; or a Chinese play for resources in Africa or Russia or Eastern Europe that involves removing the people already living there; or a growing global ecological panic if America abandons climate science or the European Union falls apart.

Today we confront the same crucial choice between science and ideology that Germans once faced. Will we accept empirical evidence and support new energy technologies, or allow a wave of ecological panic to spread across the world?

Denying science imperils the future by summoning the ghosts of the past.



In Bangladesh, millions of people have been displaced by floods and the rising sea level.
Credit Kadir van Lohuizen/NOOR, for The New York Times



In Sudan, drought led to conflict and the displacement of many civilians.
Credit Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

I found this article to be very informative in that it shows an eery parallel between the lead up to the Holocaust and current conditions in many regions of the world today.  As others have expressed in other threads, the earth can not provide a sustainable standard of living for the current population, even without the threat of AGW/CC.
 
At this time climate change is a threat multiplier which only exacerbates the problems in nations that are currently in a failing or failed state.  As time progresses, climate change will be the direct cause of many deaths.

Most of us who are aware and concerned about climate change or have previously been involved in movements to protect the environment or wildlife are also the type of individuals who have humanitarian instincts.  It is very difficult to imagine how many 100s of thousands even millions will die this century by mean other than natural causes.  It is even more painful to accept that many of those deaths will be at the hands of brutal tyrants and armed thugs.

I don't believe that any social structure is immune from being co-opted by "patriotic zealots" who will demand that anyone who does not follow their ideology will either be expelled or murdered.

61
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 14, 2015, 06:58:43 PM »
Due to todays number from IJIS we are now having a minimum at a guaranteed third place as 2011 minimum was eclipsed by 1154 km2. I think we can rule out the possibility of beating 2007.

I'll be dipped. I thought it was done. Guess the season had a few more dents to cause before it stopped bouncing.

A week ago, I was dead certain that 2015 would go below 2011's annual minimum. Two or three days ago, I was almost equally certain that 2011 no longer had any chance of eclipsing 2011.  It is almost impossible to predict what will happen in mid-September when the re-freezing forces are competing with the melting forces for dominance.  Will 2015 have any more significant losses in the next four or five days.

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 14, 2015, 03:22:27 PM »
 46,403 Km2 below 2011 and 132,417 Km2 above 2007.

1,154 Km2 BELOW  2011’s  annual minimum and 202,286 Km2 above 2007’s annual minimum.

A week ago I was dead certain that 2015 would go below 2011's annual minimum SIE. Two or three days ago I was almost as certain that 2015 had no chance of reaching a minimum lower that 2011.  This goes to show how difficult it is to make predictions in the middle of September, when we have simultaneous melting and re-freezing occurring.  It will be interesting to see if there will be anymore significant losses this year.



63
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 09, 2015, 01:54:49 PM »
Only a few more days of reasonable losses for 2015 to go below 2011's annual minimum.  Unless some very surprising weather event occurs, 2007 seems to be out of reach this year.

9,618 Km2 above 2011 and 103,022 Km2 above 2007 for this date.

28,344 Km2 above  2011’s  annual minimum and 231,784 Km2 above 2007’s annual minimum.


64
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 07, 2015, 12:41:36 PM »
 23,496Km2 above 2011 and 109,274Km2 above 2007.

80,232 Km2 above  2011’s  annual minimum and 283,672 Km2 above 2007’s annual minimum.

It still seems likely that 2015 will end up below 2011, since that only requires 5 or 6 more days of steady losses.  To go below 2007 will require 10 to 12 days of well above average losses.

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 05, 2015, 02:27:14 PM »
22,957 Km2 below 2011 and 37,831 Km2 above 2007.

99,750 Km2 above  2011’s  annual minimum and 303,190 Km2 above 2007’s annual minimum.

After this downturn, it may be difficult for 2015 to end the season in 2nd place below 2007.  Still a reasonably good chance of ending up in 3rd, below 2011.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 03, 2015, 11:51:24 AM »
Currently, 2015 is in 2nd place, 116,625 Km2 below 2011 and 66,093 Km2 below 2007.

2015 is now 77,379 Km2 above  2011’s  annual minimum and 280,819 Km2 above 2007’s annual minimum.

I think that there is a very good chance that 2015 will remain below 2011 for the remainder of the melt season to finish at least as the 3rd lowest year on record. 2015’s current position of 2nd lowest is a little more tenuous, however, with consistent average to slightly above average losses, 2015 can end up below 2007 between the 15th and 18th  of September, assuming the melt season lasts that long.

The average daily loss required for 2015 to go below 2007 on the following dates is:

9 September 40,117 Km2

12 September 28,082Km2

15 September 20,059Km2

18 September 16,519Km2

21 September 14,041Km2

67
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: September 03, 2015, 01:25:13 AM »

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 03, 2015, 01:08:14 AM »

**********************SNIP******************************

I agree. Beaufort and Chukchi were the first regions to show open water and serious melting (within the Arctic Ocean) and will probably be the last to show serious refreezing.

I believe it is a fact that the Pacific has been very warm, and there have been plenty of weather systems that were able to bring heat from the Pacific into the Arctic during this melting season, hence the carnage. AGW at its best (or it worst).

I'm beginning to think that the Bering and Chukchi Seas will be the first Arctic areas to become essentially ice-free perennially. I don't know how many years it will take and how much of the current SST anomalies are due to El Nino and will soon revert back to more normal temps.

69
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 Re-Freeze Season
« on: September 02, 2015, 06:33:50 PM »
My gut feeling is that how the developing El Nino influences the regional weather of the Arctic will be critical.
It may transport warmth and moisture, or it may produce a blocking pattern that allows the Arctic to cool.
It would seem that the number and size of the variables affecting the Arctic are changing and about all we can say for certain is that they all point to increased melt.

One year fairly soon all those ducks will be in a line and then who knows - it might even make a small segment of the nightly news, for a day or so.

It will be interesting to see watch the DMI Temps North of 802.  The deviations up from the mean are clear indication that warm is is entering from the continents.  I'd be interested to know in which months elevated temps have the greatest impact on any of our standard metrics, area, extent and volume.

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 02, 2015, 02:14:06 PM »
Currently, 2015 is in 2nd place, 106,703 Km2 below 2011 and 38,896 Km2 above 2007.

2015 is now 105,813 Km2 above  2011’s  annual minimum and 309,253 Km2 above 2007’s annual minimum.

It now appears even more certain that 2015 will end the season below 2011.  To end up below 2007 will still take slightly above average losses and still be dependent on when the annual minimum is reached.  For example, the average daily loss to go below 2007 on the following dates is:

9 September 30.925 Km2
12 September 23,789 Km2
15 September 19,328 Km2
18 September 16,276 Km2
21 September 15,463 Km2

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 01, 2015, 03:12:45 PM »
Currently, 2015 is in 3rd place, 57,133 Km2 below 2011 and only 24,736 Km2 above 2007.

The least amount of SIE loss in September was 149,981 Km2 in 2004. The most amount of SIE loss was 501,822 Km2 in 2010.  The average loss was 290,986 Km2.

It looks to me that 2015 will certainly end the season below 2011.  To end up below 2007 will take above average losses and still be dependent on when the annual minimum is reached.  For example, the average daily loss to go below 2007 on the following dates is:

9 September 41,437 Km2
12 September 31,078 Km2
15 September 24,862 Km2
18 September 20,719 Km2
21 September 17,759 Km2

72
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 01, 2015, 02:50:49 PM »
ADS-NIPR SIE Looking Ahead to September

From the 15th to the 31st of August ADS SIE lost 1,084,109 Km2 which surpassed the record set by 2012 of 1,039,852 Km2.

Currently, 2015 is in 3rd place, 57,133 Km2 below 2011 and only 24,736 Km2 above 2007.

The least amount of SIE loss in September was 149,981 Km2 in 2004. The most amount of SIE loss was 501,822 Km2 in 2010.  The average loss was 290,986 Km2.

I'm reasonably certain that 2015 will end the season in at least 3rd place, below 2011.  Also, 2015 has a reasonable opportunity to end the season in 2nd place below 2007.




73
The rest / Re: Petition
« on: September 01, 2015, 01:27:25 AM »
While I am not a Catholic and I do not agree with the Catholic church's position on any number of other issues, I gladly signed this petition.  Pope Francis has a large following and if enough people globally demand changes, some of the world's leaders might  start to pay attention.

I encourage everyone to sign this position and put the link on your Facebook page and other social media networks you are a part of.

Again the link is: http://catholicclimatemovement.global/petition/

74
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 31, 2015, 11:43:23 PM »

******************SNIP*************
 3-4 weeks melting season left, due to warmest year on record globally, warmest waters, etc.

I wouldn't count on there being 4 weeks left to the melt season. The date that ADS (IJIS) Extent has reached annual minimum during the last twelve years has varied between September 9th and September 21st.  I understand that AGW is going to eventually lead to longer melting seasons, but I see no reason to believe that there will be a full week of additional melting in 2015. My gut feeling is that extent will not hit it's minimum before the 15th and might even be a day or two later that the 21st, but I would be shocked if the minimum occurred after 24th or 25th.

However, this is the Arctic and we've all been surprised before.

75
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 31, 2015, 01:29:07 PM »
IJIS/ADS now is at a guaranteed 4th place even if no further melt happens (very unlikely).

We have 15 days to go till the average minimum date, so the last column shows average daily loss until then (straight line, no smart curve):
Code: [Select]
Rank Year Month Day DoY Extent Needed loss Days to go Avg daily loss
1 2012 9 16 260 3177455 -1314452 15 -86302.4
2 2007 9 17 260 4065739 -426168 15 -27980.7
3 2011 9 10 253 4269199 -222708 15 -14622.2
4 2015 8 30 242 4491907

So 2012 is obviously out of reach, 2007 borderline, and 2011 not unlikely...

The most difficult thing to do this time of year is to predict what the losses will do on a daily or weekly basis.  We also have no idea when the minimum will be attained.  Could be as early as the 9th or as late as the 21st, although like you I'm using the 15th of September  as the nominal end date.  We are at that time when the losses may flatline for a day or two then bounce up and down for a few days and then have some rather large drops.  Although I would not expect many massive daily drops as there have only been 3 daily drops of more than 70K in the past 12 years.

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 Re-Freeze Season
« on: August 29, 2015, 10:36:24 PM »
Semtner 1975

see http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/the-simplest-model-of-sea-ice-growth.html
(link to paper is early in above post)

To illustrate the insulating effect of snow:

I made the graph below, using the simplest model for thermodynamic growth of sea ice in the appendix of the Semtner paper.

The graph shows sea ice thickness as a function of time, from day 1 to day 200, assuming that:

1) initial ice thickness (on day 1) is 50cm
2) air temperature is constant -20°C
3) ocean heat flux is negligible
4) there are no dynamic processes such as compaction/ridging, and
5) snow depth S is constant (i.e. no extra snowfall during the freezing season): S=0 for the blue curve, S=10cm for the red curve, and S=20cm for the green curve.

(Clearly most of the above assumptions are unrealistic.)



Thanks Steven.  That certainly implies that an early and heavy blanket of snow can have a significant limiting on the effect eventual thickness of the ice pack in spring.  Another fact we have to consider going forward in the future is rapid warming of the Arctic in the dark months.  Last month Neven had an very fascinating post on the ASIB entitled "A Wetter and Warmer Arctic". http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/08/a-wetter-and-warmer-arctic.html

The most alarming and detrimental to ice growth is the decadal increase in November to April temperatures from 2003 to 2013, with November being the month with dramatic annual gains. See quote below with my highlights:

Quote
The Arctic became warmer and wetter since the beginning of the 21st century, a self-reinforcing trend likely to continue because it is linked to sea-ice melt and more persistent open-water conditions in the world’s northern ocean, a newly published study concludes.

Data from NASA shows that average surface temperatures across the Arctic Ocean increased an average of 0.16 degrees Celsius per year from 2003 to 2013, and air temperatures rose 0.09 degrees Celsius annually over the same period, says the study, published online in Geophysical Research Letters.

The changes weren't evenly distributed, though. They were dominated by large increases in the November-to-April period,during which Arctic-wide surface temperatures rose 2.5 degrees Celsius and air temperatures rose 1.5 degrees Celsius from 2003 to 2013.

November saw the biggest increases in “skin temperature” (defined as temperature at the Earth’s surface), and air temperature, with an average annual rise of 0.42 degrees Celsius on the surface and 0.32 degrees Celsius in the air
, said the study, by Linette Boisvert of the NASA-affiliated Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland and Julienne Stroeve, a research scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.

77
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 29, 2015, 01:34:05 PM »
2015 will probably drop below 2007 between now and the  2nd of September, because during that period 2007 lost only 108K.  The question remains, will 2015 be able to stay in 2nd place from that point until the bitter end????

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 28, 2015, 06:19:59 PM »

Does this change prognosis for early or late minimums? I would suggest that it is possible that the storm and any upwelling warm water it brings will just about finish off the dispersed ice in the arm over the next few days and then there is very little dispersed ice left which would set the stage for early area and extent minimums. Maybe there are other views?

Good Question. I follow it with another question; will the SST anomalies on the fringes of the ice pack be high enough to continue nibbling at the edges?

Other than that the only thing I could see would be another one or two cyclones.

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 28, 2015, 05:53:40 PM »
Updated Near-Term ADS-NIPR SIE Loss Projections

Cross-posted from the 2015 Area and Extent thread.

The simplistic model I developed for projecting near-term SIE losses assumes that the melt season would end on the 15th of September. That was not a random choice. In the past 12 years the earliest minimum was on the 9th and the latest was on the 21st, while six years ended before the 15th, 5 years ended after the 15th and one lone year ended on the 15th. I have no way of knowing whether 2015 will end before or after the 15th. Just because dramatic losses are occurring this week and there are elevated SSTs on the fringes of the ice pack is no guarantee that melting will continue later than normal. The other reason for ending on the 15th is that it is almost impossible to determine average daily losses during a time when SIE values may be fluctuating up or down on a daily basis.



80
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 28, 2015, 05:47:56 PM »
Updated Near-Term ADS-NIPR SIE Loss Projections

The simplistic model I developed for projecting near-term SIE losses assumes that the melt season would end on the 15th of September. That was not a random choice. In the past 12 years the earliest minimum was on the 9th and the latest was on the 21st, while six years ended before the 15th, 5 years ended after the 15th and one lone year ended on the 15th. I have no way of knowing whether 2015 will end before or after the 15th. Just because dramatic losses are occurring this week and there are elevated SSTs on the fringes of the ice pack is no guarantee that melting will continue later than normal. The other reason for ending on the 15th is that it is almost impossible to determine average daily losses during a time when SIE values may be fluctuating up or down on a daily basis.

I will also cross-post this on the IJIS thread.


81
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 Re-Freeze Season
« on: August 28, 2015, 03:19:07 PM »
Semtner75iceMultiyearCycles

Trying to think about the above, I imagine this applying to regions that rarely get down to zero ice.

One region might be ice free one year and then is not ice free for several years. Different regions are unlikely to be in sync with this because weather that is good for melting in one region is likely to be bad for melting in another region. So you could still get a fairly steady decline in total ice despite having such cycles taking place because different regions will tend to be at different places in such cycles.

Adjacent years do seem to have different regions where the ice retreats more than usual. However I am not sure this is really evidence for such cycles. I suspect transport of ice makes what is going on a whole lot more chaotic than simple cycles that 'repeat themselves exactly'.

Crandles,

Thanks for posting all of this  important information.  This is the kind of information I was looking for when I started this thread. 

Someone posed the question about why I started this thread in the midst of all of the excitement with the dramatic events currently occurring in Arctic. As I have read the various threads about this year's melting, I have read many comments about setting the stage for massive losses in 2016 and varying thoughts on whether the current events might delay the start of the 2015/2016 re-freeze.  So I decided to start this thread  now to start capturing some of the thoughts and the rationale behind  them.  I realize that attention should be remained focused on current events, however within 3-4 weeks (??) we will see the end of this year's melting.  I, for one, would like to have a better understanding of everything that impacts the re-growth of ice and what that may mean for the following year's melt season.

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 28, 2015, 02:34:04 PM »
With that second consecutive century drop, the current ADS-NIPR SIE is 4,584,969 Km2.  We are very closer to going below the annual minimum of 2008, which will certainly happen in the  next day or two.  As of today, 2015 is 146,253 Km2 below 2011 and only 16,567 Km2 above 2007.  The table below shows the difference between today's SIE and the annual minimums for previous years.  2007 is no longer safe from being surpassed this year.


Year    Day        SIE Minimum     +/- Todays SIE
2010   17-Sep    4,622,092           (37,123)
2008   9-Sep      4,500,623             84,346
2011   10-Sep    4,269,199            315,770
2007   17-Sep    4,065,759            519,210
2012   16-Sep    3,177,455           1,407,514

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 Re-Freeze Season
« on: August 27, 2015, 08:52:42 PM »
Here's my speculation on the impact of el nino / warm blob on the refreeze season:

Because of more water vapor in the air from the warm waters, I think we're more likely than other years to have widespread snows across the arctic which would insulate the ice.  Thinner ice in winter this year => large melt season next year?

Welcome to the Forum lifeblack.

You are absolutely correct that increased water vapor increases the chance of snow, however, when and where the snow falls is entirely dependent on the weather.  I'd be interested to at what point of the re-freeze season does a heavy blanket of snow on the ice have the greatest impact on further ice growth.

Do we have any standard definition of when the re-freeze season actually begins??  Since our three standard metrics, area, extent and volume all reach their annual minimum at different times and then quite often bounce around the bottom for days or weeks before beginning to climb.  I would surmise that the true start of the re-freeze season is not until all three metrics have climbed by a certain amount (percent gain or absolute amount) or for a number of successive days.

If there is no current standard by which one can declare the start of the re-freeze season, I recommend that the members of this forum should develop that standard.

84
The forum / Re: Neven's "TIP JAR"
« on: August 27, 2015, 05:49:03 PM »
Today another milestone for the Arctic Sea Ice Forum has been reached with the second successive month of 1 million+ pageviews!

Just a reminder to everyone to help keep this valuable service available by thanking our host Neven, by throwing a few Euros/Dollars/Yen/Pesos etc. his way!!

85
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2015, 02:26:28 PM »
With today's drop of 137K, it is now very likely that 2015 will finish this season no higher than third.  And if this current storm continues the damage in the  Beaufort Sea, there is a reasonable chance that 2015 will be in second place and might dip below 4M Km2.







86
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 27, 2015, 06:42:04 AM »
Almost certain that 2015 will now be at least 3rd place at the end of this year.  With that massive drop, 2007 is seriously threatened.

87
Arctic sea ice / The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: August 26, 2015, 11:55:12 PM »
There has been a lot of chatter on several of the other  topics about whether the building El Nino or other factors might extend 2015's melt season, thereby delaying the start of the 2015/2016 re-freeze. Therefore, I decided to open a topic where we can start talking about the many factors that can either inhibit or facilitate the growth of sea ice during the dark months.

What will the impact of El Nino be?
Will the warm blob stay in the North Pacific and what impact might that have?
Will the fractured jet stream direct more or less heat from the continents?

I'm sure there are many commenters on this forum, who are smarter than me (the majority), that will pose better questions andor be able to provide good information as the fall and winter months approach.

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 26, 2015, 11:01:29 PM »
A remarkably stable decrease. The trend line on my IJIS SIE graph is almost strait, and it has now dipped below 2014's daily minimum.

A 2nd lowest for the year is reachable.

Espen,

I agree with you that 2nd place is a possibility, particularly if the losses continue at their current pace for the next week.  Currently 2015 needs to lose 581,764 Km2 to go below 2011 and 785,204 Km2 to go below 2007.

The least amount of SIE loss in September was149,981 Km2, in 2004, and the greatest amount was 501,822 Km2, in 2010. The average loss for years 2003-2014 was just over 290K Km2.





89
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 26, 2015, 01:03:13 PM »
Another Year Bites the Dust!!

The ADS-NIPR SIE lost another 71K Km2 to go below 2014's annual minimum and we only need to lose another 42K Km2 to go below 2013's annual minimum.  At the current rate of losses, 2015 could easily go below 2010 before the end of August.

It's time to stock up on beer and snacks because we may have an exciting finish to the end of the melt season!!

Year      Day     SIE Minimum     +/- Todays SIE
2003   15-Sep     5,937,087       (1,086,124)
2004   11-Sep     5,683,663          (832,700)
2006   14-Sep     5,625,046          (774,083)
2005   21-Sep     5,179,300          (328,337)
2009   12-Sep     5,054,055          (203,092)
2014   12-Sep     4,884,120            (33,157)

2013   12-Sep     4,809,288              41,675
2010   17-Sep     4,622,092            228,871
2008   9-Sep       4,500,623            350,340
2011   10-Sep     4,269,199            581,764
2007   17-Sep     4,065,759            785,204
2012   16-Sep     3,177,455         1,673,508

90
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 25, 2015, 09:17:16 PM »
Meanwhile ADS-NIPR is dropping like a rock, having lost  600,905 Km2 since the 15th of August, for a daily rate of 66,767 Km2.  It's only been 4 days since 2015 dropped below the annual minimum of 2005 and 2 days since it dropped below 2009. 

Looking ahead for the next week or so, if daily losses were to be 55k  Km2/day 2015 would drop below 2014 tomorrow (25th), 2013 two days later (27th), 2010 after another 3 days (30th) and 2008 after another 2 days (September 1st).

With the upcoming storms forecast for the Arctic and the SIE loss predictions of others commenters on the 2015 Melting Season topic, it seems quite possible that 2015 may start September in 4th place with reasonable chances of ending the season below 2011.  Going below 2007 will require well above average losses for the remainder of the season, however, it is no longer improbable. 


91
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 24, 2015, 01:48:56 PM »
ADS-NIPR SIE Update

It's another exciting day in the Arctic Sea Ice's race to oblivion.  2015 SIE is now below the annual minimum of 2009 and it is almost certain that it will go below 2013 and 2014 in the upcoming days as well as probably going below 2010 before the end of August. (See second table below for the difference between the current SIE and previous years annual minimum)

It is becoming more and more  likely that the 2015 SIE will finish no higher than 4th place by the end of the melt season.  The chances of finishing below 2011 for 3rd place is greater than finishing above 2008 in 5th place. (See first  table below for various projected loss scenarios)

It will take continuing record or near-record losses and a late finish for the melt season in order for the  2015 SIE to end  up below 2007.  However, it is no longer impossible to end up the year in 2nd place, just not a very wise bet. 






92
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 23, 2015, 11:59:25 PM »
For the record, I completely agree with the comments that Jim Pettit and Buddy and TerryM  have made about kingbaum's numerous statements that lack any credibility.

jr47, you might want to lurk around here a little longer......you might gain some factual knowledge.

Need I say more??

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 22, 2015, 01:19:58 PM »
Another year bites the dust.

Today's drop of over 61K Km2 the ADR-NIPR SIE went below 2005's annual minimum.  At the current rate of loss, it won't be many days until we get below 2009.

Current SIE  21-Aug, 2015   5,137,974 KM2

Year      Day       SIE Minimum   +/- Todays SIE
2003   15-Sep     5,937,087        (799,113)
2004   11-Sep     5,625,046        (487,072)
2005   21-Sep     5,179,300        (41,326)

2009   12-Sep     5,054,055          83,919
2014   12-Sep     4,884,120        253,854
2013   12-Sep     4,809,288        328,686
2010   17-Sep     4,622,092        515,882
2008   9-Sep       4,500,623        637,351
2011   10-Sep     4,269,199        868,775
2007   17-Sep     4,065,759      1,072,215
2012   16-Sep     3,177,455      1,960,519

94
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: August 22, 2015, 12:07:13 AM »

95
The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: August 20, 2015, 10:28:30 PM »
JimD


At some time Canada & the States will of course merge, We're desperately in need of one more province ;>)


Thanks for the article - who would have expected it from the NY Times.


Terry

You can add the province of Texas anytime. Once you've proven you can govern Texas, we'll gladly  give you the choice of getting Oklahoma or Alabama next

Rats!  I was planning on giving Texas and Arizona back to Mexico.  Procrastination gets you every time.

Maybe we could foment a war between Mexico and Canada, whereby the loser gets to keep both Texas and Arizona.

96
The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: August 20, 2015, 09:57:41 PM »
JimD


At some time Canada & the States will of course merge, We're desperately in need of one more province ;>)


Thanks for the article - who would have expected it from the NY Times.


Terry

You can add the province of Texas anytime. Once you've proven you can govern Texas, we'll gladly  give you the choice of getting Oklahoma or Alabama next

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 20, 2015, 03:10:33 AM »


Difference between today's ADR-NIPR SIE and previous years final minimum

18 August, 2015 SIE - 5,328,130 KM2

Year      Day     SIE Minimum     +/- Todays SIE
2003   15-Sep     5,937,087       (608,957)
2004   11-Sep     5,683,663       (355,533)
2006   14-Sep     5,625,046       (296,916)

2005   21-Sep     5,179,300         148,830
2009   12-Sep     5,054,055         274,075
2014   12-Sep     4,884,120         444,010
2013   12-Sep     4,809,288         518,842
2010   17-Sep     4,622,092         706,038
2008   9-Sep       4,500,623         827,507
2011   10-Sep     4,269,199      1,058,931
2007   17-Sep     4,065,759      1,262,371
2012   16-Sep     3,177,455      2,150,675



Thanks, OLN. The average remaining ADR-NIPR SIE decrease from now until minimum for the past ten years:

2014: 791k
2013: 790k
2012: 1,129k
2011: 886k
2010: 975k
2009: 852k
2008: 1,091k
2007: 929k
2006: 479k
2005:  714k
-------------
AVRG: 863k

If the rest of the year follows the 10-year average trajectory, then, 2015 will end up in 4th place, just ahead of 2008. Overtaking 2011 for 3rd is reachable, but not likely; and 5th place is still a real possibility. So, as with all other sea ice metrics: we'll have to watch and wait...

Jim,

I will update that table every time 2015 goes below another one of the previous years or if it's at least a week since I last posted it.  There is no sense in posted this info on a daily basis.

Now back to other issues related to 2015.  I've noticed on this topic and other topics on the Forum about the chances that 2015 will have an extended melting season, based on SST anomalies and the current El-Nino.  While those facts are true, I can only paraphrase what Neven said in today's ASIB post.  The end of the season's melting is almost entirely dependent on the winds in the Arctic regions. If they blow from the right direction, extent losses will accelerate. If they blow from
the wrong direction, extent losses will slow down rapidly.  The only way SSTs and El-Nino can impact this years melting is if the winds are blowing favorably to melt the most vulnerable ice.  In order to  go lower than 2011 and maybe 2007, it will probably take massive losses (~500K Km2), in September, like 2010.  Other that those  scenarios 2015 will end up 4th (or 5th).

98
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 19, 2015, 03:17:06 PM »
Difference between today's ADR-NIPR SIE and previous years final minimum

18 August, 2015 SIE - 5,328,130 KM2

Year      Day     SIE Minimum     +/- Todays SIE
2003   15-Sep     5,937,087       (608,957)
2004   11-Sep     5,683,663       (355,533)
2006   14-Sep     5,625,046       (296,916)

2005   21-Sep     5,179,300         148,830
2009   12-Sep     5,054,055         274,075
2014   12-Sep     4,884,120         444,010
2013   12-Sep     4,809,288         518,842
2010   17-Sep     4,622,092         706,038
2008   9-Sep       4,500,623         827,507
2011   10-Sep     4,269,199      1,058,931
2007   17-Sep     4,065,759      1,262,371
2012   16-Sep     3,177,455      2,150,675


99
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 17, 2015, 10:01:27 PM »
From today's NSIDC data update I calculate the following CT updates (the days in this list are the days of data released, three days behind ice dates):

day   chg  estimate  CT-value
Mon        3.610883  3.612094
Tue -16.7  3.594170  -
Wed -81.9  3.512253  -


I will be interested to see how those losses in area will impact the extent  measurements for those days.

Nice. Thanks. So that will put current area more than a million square kilometers below last year's value for the same day. And with about a month still left for ice to disappear, area has already dropped below 2013's annual minimum (and the minimums recorded in all other years prior to 2007).

Huh. I gotta tell you, that's some recovery, ain't it, Anthony? ;)

For the record, 2015's August average is already lower than those recorded for the full month in 2014, 2013, 2010, 2009, and every year prior to 2007. Now let's see what the next two weeks can bring...

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 16, 2015, 04:39:29 PM »
If the recent slowdown continues, 2008 could very well catch up and surpass this year, resulting in a fifth place finish for 2015.

Here are the CT area losses from this day through the annual minimum for each of the previous ten seasons, with a third column showing where 2015 would end up were it to follow each of those years from here on out, and a 4th column showing final rank:

YEAR   LOSS TO END   IF REPEATED   RANK
2014   1.0883119   2.4816721   2nd
2013   0.5946255   2.9753585   4th
2012   0.7335148   2.8364692   2nd
2011   0.5325577   3.0374263   5th
2010   0.9297531   2.6402309   2nd
2009   0.6761916   2.8937924   2nd
2008   0.6316180   2.9383660   4th
2007   0.3827111   3.1872729   6th
2006   0.5312524   3.0387316   5th
2005   0.2562065   3.3137775   6th

Note that the space between 2nd place and 6th place is very thin: 2.903M would put 2015 in 2nd, while just 3.073--about 170k higher--would leave 2015 in 6th.

It's like watching Arctic Sea Ice Roulette: round and round it goes, and where it stops, nobody knows...


Jim,

It is amazing how that small difference could make such a big difference in how the pundits will view, and comment on, this year's melt season.  If 2015 ends up in 2nd place, the WUWT crowd will have trouble claiming that the Arctic ice is recovering.  On the other if 2015 ends up in 6th place, we will have more trouble trying to convince people that the Arctic ice is rapidly declining.

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