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Messages - OldLeatherneck

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551
Laurent,

4 or 5 years ago, after retirement, when I had time to look at what was happening to our climate, I did a quick Google Search, for SLR projections.  I found close to 15 different sets of projections.  While there were distinct variations between the different sets of projections and not knowing which ones were produced by the most credible scientists/institutions, I was satisfied at that time civilization had 90 years to prepare for 12"-18" of SLR by 2100.

We now know that even the most credible of those projections were grossly understated.  I believe that we have less than 40 years to prepare for a SLR of as much as 1 meter, maybe more....hopefully less.

More imminent, but less concern to many folks in the western world, is the very near-term relocation of almost the entire population of Bangladesh.  Where will those people go??  What country is capable of accepting and caring for that many displaced people.

It will be fascinating, if not alarming to watch how much mass is lost on Greenland and the WAIS in the next 4-5 years.  We almost need that data to make any valid near-term projections.  I'd start a poll on how much sea levels will rise by 2100, but I won't be around to award the prize to the winner.

In preparing for rising sea levels, coastal communities MUST begin making plans for massive sea walls or complete abandonment of major metropolitan areas.  Imagine the economic and societal impact of having to suddenly evacuate, abandon and relocate the entire population of Miami, FL!!

552
Neven,

Thanks for that link.  I do now remember when you and Kevin posted that.  I think this forum is going to provide a wonderful repository for a lot of significant material that has not only been written in the past but in the future months and years.

It will be interesting to observe the cultural shifts from individuals, to  local communities, to regions to entire nations and continents as the brutal evidence of AGW/CC becomes more and more obvious as the upcoming months and years transpire.

Adapting to change, no matter how necessary, is not an easy thing for many people to accept, let alone embrace.  Having taught and coached change management, I've seen how destructive the resistance to change can be to an organization.  I've seen senior executive balk at change the way they do business even when given statistical evidence of a means to improve their bottom line and annual bonuses.  Now, face with AGW/CC we are looking adapting to a changing world where there are no easy, painless solutions.  The longer we delay adaptation/mitigation the more painful the changes will be.

At my age (66), it would be easy to ignore many aspects of AGW/CC.  The most catastrophic events may not occur until my ashes have been scattered at sea.  However, as a species, we have a moral imperative to leave a habitable biosphere for future generations, even if the world's population must decline to survive in it.

Ritter,

While I was typing the above response to Neven, I was notified of your comments.  Here ae a few brief thoughts on your reply:

As I stated, the chart is purely hypothetical.  I created it just to get the conversations started about the timing and severity of the problems we are facing.  Your perspective about the impact droughts will have on the world's food supply, is very well taken.

553


While this chart may be purely hypothetical, the events depicted are not!  I have chosen to use the loss of arctic sea ice on the x-axis, because we know the stages of decline.  We also know that Arctic Amplification is going to continue to play havoc with the climate, leading to severe droughts, extreme heatwaves and more violent storms. I've also included stages of Sea level rise (SLR) on the x-axis because the loss of the arctic sea ice will lead to accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS).  What we don't know is when in the future these events will be occurring, although, the best minds on Neven's blog seem to believe that we will see an ice-free September as early as 2016.  I arbitrarily placed a 1 meter SLR after a perrennially ice free arctic, however comments/opinions on that are welcome.

The global impact of Climate Change is already taking a toll on infrastructure and society.  This toll will only worsen unless CO2 emissions are drastically reduced or other mitigation efforts prove successful.

We Have Choices

While many of the events depicted on this chart are already unavoidable, humanity has within it's power to change the slope of the curves.  While I'm not always as optimistic about a rapid transition to renewable energy as my good friend Bob Wallace is, I'm also not as doomerish as those who believe that we are unavoidably heading towards a mass extinction event.

I welcome any thoughts/comments about the timeline of events and/or the societal impacts of unfettered Climate Change.

554
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 21, 2013, 12:04:09 AM »
A4R,

Thanks for beginning to start this topic.  It was my concerns about methane release from the ESAS that brought me to learning more about the ice-loss in the arctic ocean.

I don't have much to add today... just learning how to use this new forum.

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