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Messages - be cause

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1451
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 29, 2016, 02:41:56 PM »
  .. as expected ..

1452
Walking the walk / Re: Weeds and wild-growing plants
« on: October 27, 2016, 10:55:15 AM »
wild watercress is my main 'green' most of the year . This summer-like autumn in N Ireland is yielding monster crops . My sheughs are full !
Bullaces are ready in the local hedgerows .. my favourite jam of the year .

1453
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2016, 03:13:52 PM »
The next week looks like being dramatic across the Arctic , LMV's long predicted cyclonic monster is now predicted across the models ... pouring warmth into the Pacific side while a thrust of extra warm air pushes in from the Atlantic . Run an 850 anomaly forecast to see the warmth meet across the Arctic ..
Whither the weather is as dramatic  as forecast ; it certainly looks like the 'new' Arctic autumn/fall season is not yet over .
I would love those with a longer eye on all things Arctic to discuss the 'unusualness' of this event . This could be a week that really matters to the Arctic .... bc.

1454
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2016, 10:56:23 PM »
EOSDISWorldview provides a wonderful view of the Fram-ward movement of the ice north of Greenland over the last 2 weeks . Wish I had the skills to share . Most of the ice has moved 100km toward oblivion and with the forecast winds supporting accellerating export the melting season continues even as area etc grow . bc .

1455
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: September 15, 2016, 02:25:56 PM »
GEM was well ahead in predicting current developments . At the moment it's 240 has a central Arctic storm below 960 ! 

Anyway enjoy the journey through the Northern winter and thanks to all on board for the science and opinions shared . bc

1456
Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: What happens after the first sea ice free arctic?
« on: September 15, 2016, 10:16:48 AM »
What happens ? .. Trump gets re-elected ! :)

1457
Walking the walk / Re: On the individual level? A mea culpa
« on: September 04, 2016, 03:32:15 PM »
Because I was 'bright' , my parents saw my future as not being on the family farm . My mother saw me as a doctor. my father , as a bank manager . I wanted to grow up outdoors .. not in classrooms and colleges .
I successfully became a failure in my parent's eyes. Now I live in a 70's mobile home bought for £1000 10 years ago . I have a few acres which I am turning into a forest garden for future generations .
Living in N. Ireland ;I have no drought problem :) My well is full ! Last night was the second of violent thunder and lightening in a week . My climate is changing too .. to more rain , wind and warmth .
I thank all who choose to lessen their destructive impact on this wonderful gift of a planet we live on .
         be cause :)

1458
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: September 03, 2016, 08:59:09 PM »
funny .. idunno has talked more sense than most .

1459
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 29, 2016, 08:35:19 PM »
compaction in action ? :)

1460
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 28, 2016, 11:30:50 AM »
has Greenland assumed the status of a buoy ?

1461
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 18, 2016, 08:11:45 PM »
 Neven .. just noticed that the term 'Arctic autumn' does not exist on wiki .. I have no computer skills .. anyone want to create the page ? The season is certainly creating itself as we watch !

1462
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 18, 2016, 07:40:57 PM »
it looks like storms have found a new playground . The one after next .. in @ 120 hours .. looks likely to wake a few of us to a new potential .. the Arctic autumn .

1463
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 17, 2016, 12:54:08 AM »
Wait 4 years for a GAC and now GEM has 4 in the 10 day forecast .

1464
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 15, 2016, 03:09:18 PM »
just came to report the low that GFShas in the outlook . I am not so sure about it being unlikely . For the first time in months warm moist air is being dragged from the Atlantic into the Arctic and will be mixing with unusually cold air over open water . If not this exact low then expect something like it soon deepening explosively and making our current low look like a baby .

 The outlook brings the Atlantic to life as well .. the hurricane season .. potential for dramatic times ahead .

1465
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 02, 2016, 07:11:12 PM »
Why are we seeing a positive spike forming on DMI 80N?

I thought Latent Heat of Fusion was supposed to keep temps pegged around melting until the ice was gone???



Hi GW .. whatever the cause it is not that unusual eg. 1987 had a strong spike at this time of year ..

1466
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 01, 2016, 09:53:32 AM »
Espen , and lately Sleepy have brought something of value to this thread . The recent moans and groans have not . Could there be a moaners thread to free up those where we expect useful information and relevant discussion ?

1467
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS - Sleepy's Thread
« on: August 01, 2016, 09:44:33 AM »
  free Sleepy ! :)

1468
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 01, 2016, 12:34:28 AM »
Today is day # 213 of 365.  DMI N80 temps typically fall below 0°C around day 230.  To a rough approximation then, we can expect refreeze to match melt in another two weeks north of 80°.

Marginal ice zones next to open water (the Laptev bite and the Atlantic sector) could continue a bit longer, but the central CAB only has a couple of weeks to reduce extent before it starts refreezing.

After that, compaction events will not have as large an effect because the interstitial openings will start being filled with new ice.

Ktonine  I doubt very much that temps of 0'C will stop the melt . Last year the melt continued for a further 40 days in the CAB  , 2012 continued melting for another 50 days from now . Why would/should bottom melt etc halt in 14 days ?

1469
Arctic sea ice / Re: Gambling on The Ice
« on: July 22, 2016, 12:09:37 AM »
hi Peter ..your bet is accepted ...
       
      provided you give £42 to charity as and when it happens . :)

  I did want to place £42 at odds of 42 to 1 so I will challenge the next 41 takers ..

or if anyone can afford to be more generous to charity bigger bets may be placed .

            I will happily donate up to £168 publicly to charity !

  Just to restate .. the bet is that David Attenborough will be reporting from an

 ice=free north pole later this season ... lets do it to help raise awareness . What

ever happens .. we cannot afford to lose the Arctic
 

1470
Arctic sea ice / Re: Gambling on The Ice
« on: July 21, 2016, 06:20:15 PM »
I've been wanting to put a bet on the ice for the last couple of months but can get no takers .. either multi national bookies or independents will take my money . Been trying to put £42 on .. preferably at 42-1 that David Attenborough will be reporting from an ice-free north pole later this year . Any takers on here ? :)

1471
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 21, 2016, 06:09:43 PM »
A-team .. your final frame shows remarkable consistency with the bremen AMSR2 image I was looking at earlier . Looks like both are worth trusting . Sadly both show most thicker ice destined to dissappear and my May 12th prediction of an ice-free North Pole later this season is looking increasingly likely .

1472
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 19, 2016, 08:40:24 PM »
dear A-team is there any way to stall this medley of images so that a slow brain like mine can appreciate them rather than wanting to scream at the overload delivered in a few seconds ? Otherwise love your contributions ... bc .

1473
The rest / Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« on: June 27, 2016, 09:11:29 PM »
Ironic that Cameron went to great lengths to make it difficult for the young to register to vote before the last general election ; when in the referendum he needed them like never before !

1474
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 26, 2016, 06:04:39 AM »
Yes .. it looks like a door is opening for yet more of the multi-year ice to exit the Arctic .

1475
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 26, 2016, 05:43:23 AM »
    you too ! :) .. and all the crew  :-*   just because  ;)

1476
The rest / Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
« on: June 25, 2016, 11:31:09 AM »
here on the border in Ireland a local diesel launderer is converting vehicles to suit the new people-smuggling opportunities .. it's an ill wind ...

1477
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 23, 2016, 05:54:48 PM »
I came here for the melting season .. has the ice melted and the air conditioner failed ?

1478
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 23, 2016, 05:45:05 PM »
A shadow CT area fall of over 850 000 sq km in 7 days and over 1 million in the last 10 .
Maintaining similar losses would leave an ice -free Arctic before the end of the melt season . At the rate of losses of the last 2 days we would have no ice to follow in only 25 days !
I am not expecting ice-free but most certainly a major North Pole Hole seems very likely and very news worthy when it happens ..

1479
Science / Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« on: June 19, 2016, 02:41:36 AM »
   \\\terry .. other factors can comr into play sooner . A small rise in SL affects river outflow and then river management may force flooding further and further upstream , Here in Northern Ireland we had flooding which affected local roads for weeks and I live above 50m and over 100 km from the sea ! The problem was flood management exaccerbated by the rising sea level already . Yucatan much more prone to flooding I would guess .
                        Be C .

1480
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 02:52:49 AM »
  ?   Eureka is claiming just 13.9'C atm as today's highest temperature ..

1481
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« on: June 15, 2016, 02:54:28 PM »
binntho .. important to note that the last 7 days of the annimation are a forecast , not reality , and as such may never happen . However I still anticipate a 'pole hole' of impressive size by end of melt ..

1482
Permafrost / Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
« on: June 13, 2016, 03:04:09 PM »
I would suggest the evidence is growing that we are not an intelligent species nor is this an advanced civilization .
                 B.C.

1483
following on from dreaming that the pole would be clear of ice this year .. I voted 2016 a few days ago . Looking at Laurent's animation of sea ice off Svalbard and the CAB contribution to melting figures atm I suggest the 'easy ice' this June is in the CAB !  Every day 'ice free' is looking more probable this year  .

1484
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 20, 2016, 09:01:47 PM »
Dear F. Tinoli .. I doubt if Neven has any complaints about your contributions .. I would ask you not to 'keep it short ' . Let me be the 'judge' . Smiley face ...

1485
i had a dream last night in which the seas at the north pole were full of reporters reporting the absence of sea ice within 200 miles ! Only such a reality will wake up the media never mind the public and the politicians :) .

1486
and just
how does Europe get it's bio-fuels ?

1487
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewables Reach a Tipping Point...
« on: May 08, 2016, 07:14:14 PM »
today the sun shines in Norn' Ireland .. so the windmills are being paid to not generate electricity .. the same is true every sunny warm day .

1488
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: May 25, 2015, 03:21:03 PM »
funny that CT snow cover froze the only day with snow here in N Ireland .. I'm sure not still shovelling it . However next door in Scotland snow is accumulating atm. not melting .

1489
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: May 24, 2015, 12:30:32 AM »
sorry JD .. my observations were based only on regularly comparing the forecasts on Metrociel . It was obvious last summer that the 'toasting' and 'torching' so often promised was just not materializing . Just as now they were never promised on GEM but always on GFS .
 I am a very rudimentary user of the internet and have no computer training so can offer little in way of direction . I do however thank all you regular contributors here for bringing me a world of knowledge and information every time I come here .. the only site Bing tells me I am 'very active' on .
Thanks everyone ! :)

1490
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: May 23, 2015, 10:12:19 PM »
Hi Siffy .. based on last years summer forecasts I would not trust the GFS 2m temps forecast for the Arctic . Last year GFS spent the entire summer forecasting @ 10'c more than GEM for the Arctic as a whole . Seems to be the same again... 10 days out GFS has a frost free Arctic , Gem has it averaging @ -8'C . Last year GEM was by far the more accurate and looks likely again in 2015 . Still I don't doubt this is going to be a very interesting melt season :)

1491
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: February 08, 2015, 01:05:00 AM »
 Must be quietly becoming the most interesting thread on the planet . Thanks .

The winds certainly suit Fram export in a big way over the next week and ice should pour into Lincoln as well . The chances of Nares flowing again seem high .. 

1492
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: January 24, 2015, 10:06:07 PM »
.. and I've never imagined I would see the Arctic pouring into the Atlantic so dramatically .Sunglasses or not , is what's happening in Lincoln Sea exceptional or should my awe be directed elsewhere :)

1493
I suppose if the above were not true rain would have nowhere to fall from ..

1494
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: July 11, 2014, 10:16:59 PM »
You read a lot into my comment which I did not write.

Well... I wasn’t responding directly to you and maybe I did sorta go off on a tangent there lol   Now, to respond to what you said. 
If the relative size of current flow in this graphic is correct there's a lot of flow through the Nares Straight.  That's right in the middle of where the thickest ice is normally found.  A broken up pack of MYI might head out on that route in larger amounts than via the Fram.

While that graphic may look great at first, the proportions of current flow(s) depicted do seem to be misleading.  Nares strait is extremely unlikely to export more ice than the Fram, multiyear or younger.     In 2007 there was a dramatic increase in export through Nares but that was still only about 10 % of Fram.  It's just too narrow and there is significant ice calving off the glaciers that feed into it which is only likely to increase as the arctic warms.    So... only maybe, would it be possible if/when there is so little ice left that most of what would go out the Fram melts before making it’s way across the top of Greenland.   -The graphic must be a bit off, maybe a lot off.

I have been reading Egede's Description of Greenland in which he reports the natives as saying that the current was so strong from the North through Nare's Straight that it did not freeze over
A strong current may have no accompanying  ice flow at all ! As Bob Wallace has shown .. things up north are a changin' !

1495
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 29, 2014, 06:15:04 PM »
http://www.kimmirutweather.com/webcam.jpg

what a difference in only a few hours ! And temps of 10.2'C ..

1496
Hi .. can anyone explain the almost identical maps for the last 2 days on CT? And the identical measurements ? It looks to me that both the image .. (check the last2 on the 30/42 day animation) .. and the figures must be false ???

1497
Hello everybody .. this is my first post on this site and am thankful to BornFromTheVoid for recommending checking you out
 There has never been a more interesting time in man's experiment with his home. And never has so much information been so readily available on the weather and climate of our planet.
I realize I have missed the Arctic Area minimum predictions  but see I would have been in the lowest 10% of forecasts .. for the same reasons as the forecast of Arctic ice movement(5 posts} above is blood red .. permanent sea ice has been replaced with seasonal pack ice ,and after tomorrow's full moon will be at the whim of tide and wind
  The forming GAC? may be there for some time .. both GEM Canada and JMA still have it as a deep central Arctic feature at the end of their current 10 and 7 day runs .
  Is an ice free Arctic and it's consequences the prerequisite of any serious reversal of the insanity of humanity ?

                 be cause

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