Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Paddy

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 13
101
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 10:28:31 AM »
I know it's irrelevant to the larger picture, but I keep checking the hudson out on the ice maps, just to see if those last bits are still holding on. Should be down to their last few days now, though...

102
Dropped half a bin to 3.75 to 4.25, will review after the piomas update

103
Staying in the 3.50 to 4.00 bin for now, will review after the piomas update.

104
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2019, 03:25:54 PM »
Good point Rich with regards to individual summers.

I will now leave commenting on this thread to those with actual data to present rather than discuss further, however.

105
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2019, 12:05:47 PM »
- who is curious about when the 365 day trailing average will reach a new low?  At current rates that is in late 2019 or early 2020.

I wouldn't like to guess at the exact date, but given how low the last four months have been, I wouldn't be at all surprised by a new trailing average minimum sometime in the next 200 to 300 days. Particularly not if it happens next spring, once 2019's relatively high January to March extent is no longer part of the average.

EDIT: Although I wouldn't want to predict the date at which we first get a new lowest trailing average, I would guesstimate that we may hit the bottom of the next trough around march 31st next year.

Quote from: Killian
Excuse my ignorance, but what is the function or use of a 1-year trailing average?

State of the cryosphere...an average obscure measure  that gives us a simple numerical picture...

I'd say that it gives a more complete picture of the current trend in sea ice extent than just tracking the minimum from year to year. Especially as the minimum point reached in a given year may be more subject to random noise than the average over the course of a year.

106
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 27, 2019, 06:20:50 AM »
Looks pretty open now: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png



Only one point where it's even pinched small at all.

Incidentally, a LNG tanker has just set a new record for northern sea route transit speed with cargo on board and no icebreaker suppport https://tass.com/economy/1070320

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 27, 2019, 06:11:17 AM »
Hudson Bay - a bit earlier melt out than average, but insignificant.

The Okhotsk & St Lawrence. The Artefacts refuse to die.

Incidentally, the Bremen maps show the okhotsk and St lawrence ice as all gone now, and hudson is almost gone as well: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

Not that any of those areas matter to the final tally.

108
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 24, 2019, 07:13:41 PM »
How to manage population growth:
- Support female education and employment
- Support access to family planning. If you're in the USA, this means supporting the dems... because the practical impact of the republican party's mexico city policy blocking all US gvt funds to anyone who has anything to do with abortion means that most organisations providing any kind of family planning don't qualify. Which, paradoxically, not only leads to more babies but often also to more abortions, since that's what happens if you cut your funding to people providing contraception.

109
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 23, 2019, 12:41:06 PM »
A year or two back, someone on this forum was tracking the number of days which were at a record low per year. Is anyone still tracking this at the moment?

110
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 12:48:35 AM »
I would anticipate multiple double / triple-century drops in extent over the next ten days and sustained 100K+ area drops accompanying.



I want to be confident that you're wrong, but with volume at a record low, who knows?

111
I feel happy leaving it on the relatively open 2.5 to 5. I feel it would be very unlikely to go below 3 or above 4.5, but I couldn't with hand on heart say that I was 99.9% confident it wouldn't doone of these things. And even then, events with a 1 in 1000 chance still happen that one time.

112
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 18, 2019, 10:40:40 AM »
My condolences as well, Neven. 

113
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 15, 2019, 06:37:50 PM »
Said report has now come out: http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/

Worldwide, the proportion of undernourished people is static compared to last year, at 10.8% of the population (820 milliom people in total). At the same time as so many go hungry, obesity is also on the rise worldwide (as precisely no-one will be surprised to hear). There is some good news elsewhere in the report, however, such as a decline in the proportion of children who are stunted in growth due to malnutrition.

114
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 09:55:43 AM »
This thread went south fast.

I think, personally, the cost:reward of crisis prepping is on quite a steep bit of the curve when you start talking about packing everything up and moving to patagonia / new zealand / Saskatchewan / a remote island somewhere.

Prepping for temporary shortages is as far as I'm willing to go, personally. But in a way, I'm glad that some people do go a lot further.  A slightly higher chunk of the human race will go on as and when TSHTF courtesy of all the doomsday prepping, no doubt.  I'm unlikely to be one of them, but I'm actually ok with that.

115
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 13, 2019, 10:24:24 PM »
So the latest FAO state of food security annual report should be coming out on Monday. Should be worth a look, eg to see whether world hunger is continuing to climb etc http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/

116
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 13, 2019, 12:24:17 AM »
My prepping has been pretty low key, and as much for the economic damage of Brexit as anything else. But having some staples in reserve and a bit of capacity to provide for yourself gives a certain feeling of security, whether real or imagined.

117
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: July 10, 2019, 04:36:40 AM »
Droping my JAXA bin a half step further to 3.5 - 4.0.  Still Medium confidence.

118
Changing down half a bin to 3.5 - 4.0. We're well below most previous years and falling fast.

119
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 01:25:46 PM »
I'd put the chances of this year ending up lower than 2012 at a fair bit less than 50%, given that the loss from this point on in 2012 (5.08million sq km) was the highest loss over that period in the past ten years and quite a bit more than the average of 4.11m sq km. There's a definite possibility, but so much depends on the weather, and 2012's July/August melting conditions were pretty exceptional.

120
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 09, 2019, 11:17:27 AM »
Quote
To forecast food prices we need to know 4 things: yields (can they still go up or will there be widescale failures?), demand, supply (more land clearings?), oil prices.

As for yields, Africa has great potential since their average  grain yields are 1-1,5 t/ha which could easily increase to 3-4 tons (this happened in SE Asia in the past 30-40 years so it is easy to replicate). Demand will grow continously but slowly as population increases. Supply: more land clearings everywhere, obviously. Oil prices: Anyone's guess but there is plenty of the stuff, fracking is in high gear so they should be stable.

A few quibbles:
- The approximately 1% increase in population per year is not the only factor affecting demand. Individual average intake worldwide has also increased somewhat, both of food in general and of meat in particular, and can be expected to go on rising with increasing prosperity in low to middle income countries. And increased meat demand places a lot of demand on crops used to feed livestock.
- There are other factors that may affect supply and yields. Land area for planting crops can be expected to be adversely affected by desertification, general construction and sea level rise; yields by soil degradation, water shortages and general climate instability. On the other hand, there may be some increased land available at the polar extremes due to rising temperatures and retreat of permafrost, but with only a fairly short growing season.
- Oil prices would indeed be a anybody's guess. In the long term, the only way is up as supply is ultimately limited; demand is currently still rising in spite of the rise in electric cars etc; but I'm not going to pretend to any foreknowledge of where this will be in 10 or 20 years.
- A further factor to consider is food waste; currently, an increasing proportion is going to waste worldwide, courtesy again of increasing prosperity in low to middle income countries and adoption of more western style diets https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-food-waste/global-food-waste-could-rise-by-a-third-by-2030-study-idUSKCN1L61YR; this may, however, also offer something of a stabilising factor, since if and when food prices do rise, wasting food becomes increasingly disincentivised.

121
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: July 09, 2019, 10:24:35 AM »
My June predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.25 to 4.75, medium

My July predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium

In terms of risk-reward, I'd be tempted to increase my confidence levels to High, but I think there's a small but significant chance that ice levels could end up quite a bit lower than these estimates.

122
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 09, 2019, 07:52:00 AM »
The food price index seems to have peaked for now: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

123
I've ruled out everything from 5 and above and everything from (EDIT) 2.5 and below. I'm happy to agree woth those who'd advocate for tighter boundaries that there's a less than 1% chance of, say, an extent less than 3, but such rarities do sometimes happen.

124
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:12:02 AM »
So we've just had a quite exceptional June. How exceptional do the next couple of months need to be for a new record low sea ice extent and/or area minimum?

125
Gone down a half step to 4 - 4.5. Thinking about going lower again if high rates of loss continue.

126
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: July 03, 2019, 12:33:07 PM »
June estimates all added to the original post.

Richard, I somehow missed your post before going back through them to update the OP.  I'm also very sorry for your loss.  Also, the suggestion you made that people should state the month's estimate they're giving when making a post is a very good one, and I'd be grateful if everyone did that. 

EDIT: Incidentally, I'm waiting until we're a bit closer to the deadline before making my own guesstimate this month, especially as we don't yet have the PIOMAS data.

127
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: July 01, 2019, 03:28:22 PM »
And we're open for July entries now.  Put your guesses in anytime between now and 23:59 15/7/19 UTC.

128
Sticking to 3.75 - 4.25 for now.

129
Sticking to 4.25 - 4.75 for now.

130
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 24, 2019, 10:39:09 PM »
patiencia, calma...

Hmm i don't think humans are ever going to see 18m sq km of seaice area again.

I'm pretty certain we'll see 19 again, and would be surprised if we don't see 20 again.  Neither the arctic nor the antarctic trend is smooth enough to predict steady loss year on year from here onwards.

131
Given that we have two geriatric candidates leading the field for the dems (Bernie and Biden), and an obese geriatric incumbent, what are the odds that the next term's president might either have to step down due to illness or die in post?

132
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 16, 2019, 04:52:40 PM »
To enter, post guess and confidence in this thread before the closing date of the poll.

When is the deadline for June predictions in this thread?  Last year the deadline was 16 June, 23:59 UTC, is it the same this year?
For context, the polls last year closed:
JAXA: 2018-06-15 23h52m49s UTC
NSIDC: 2018-06-12 22h10m19s UTC

So basically the deadline for predictions was 24 hours after the later of the polls closed.

This year:
JAXA: 2019-06-11 18h24m20s UTC
NSIDC: 2019-06-11 19h45m19s UTC

I only posted in this thread some hours after the polls closed, but linked to predictions (including confidence level) I posted in the poll threads. Those posts were last edited on June 8. Please let my prediction qualify!  :)

Based on what's been said before, I'll be closing this poll tonight, at 23:59 UTC. It's a bit later than precedent from last year, but I'm not too fussed.

133
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 15, 2019, 02:46:23 PM »
Casual ruling: if you don't submit a confidence level, I will assume medium.

134
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 15, 2019, 10:05:45 AM »
Closing tomorrow, last chance time to submit or change your prediction

135
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 10:24:03 PM »
Sure, why not.

136
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 09, 2019, 06:09:21 PM »
Two questions:
A. I take it the bin size is 0.25 million km2?
B. Must the guess here be the same as on the poll thread? I assume not.

A. The bin you're guessing at is 0.5m km2 wide, but each step out is measured in 0.25m km2 increments.

So if you guess at 4 to 4.5, and the final extent is 4.9, you count as being 2 bins out. EDIT: If you had gone for Very High Confidence, you would get -10 points. If High, -2 points. If Medium or Low, 1 point. If Very Low, 0 points.

B. No, it does not have to be the same.

EDIT: My June predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.25 to 4.75, medium

137
Arctic sea ice / September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 09, 2019, 10:06:22 AM »
And it's back! Many thanks to Richard Rathbone for setting this up last year. Rules copied over from last year's thread:

Quote
This is a challenge which accumulates scores across all the monthly polls on September sea ice to come up with an overall rating of how good the predictions made are. In addition to making a prediction, entrants are required to rate their confidence in that prediction. The higher the confidence, the narrower the margin of error you are allowed, but the higher score you get if the September ice ends up where you predicted it (and the bigger penalty you take if you miss).

Currently included polls are: JAXA daily minimum area, NSIDC September average.
Other polls may be added during the course of the season if their structure fits this challenge.

Points are scored as follows:
Very High Confidence: 10 points if you pick the correct bin, -10 points for all other bins.
High Confidence: 6 points for the correct bin, 2 points if one bin out, -2 points if two bins out, -6 points for all other bins
Medium Confidence: 4 points for the correct bin, 2 points if one bin out, 1 point if two bins out, -1 if three bins out, -2 if four bins out, -4 points for all other bins
Low Confidence: 2 points for the correct bin, 1 point if within 3 bins, -1 point if 4-6 bins out, -2 points for all other bins
Very Low Confidence: 1 point if in the correct bin, no score (or penalty) for any other bin.

Note on portmanteau and end of range bins: these are excluded from the challenge, you may either select a bin within the portmanteau range, or extend the range beyond the poll endpoint for your challenge entry. If the September values fall out of the normal range, scores will be assessed by extending the bin structure. e.g. an end result of 5.9 counts as two bins out for a 5-5.5 entry.

To enter, post guess and confidence in this thread before the closing date of the poll. Editing a post to change the prediction before the closing date is allowed, editing for any reason after the closing date for a poll will result in disqualification from the challenge.

List of entries

Paddy

June
JAXA:  3.75 - 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.25 - 4.75, medium

Oren

June
JAXA: 3.5 - 4, medium
NSIDC: 4 - 4.5, medium

b_lumencraft

June
JAXA: 3.5 - 4, high
NSIDC: 3.75 - 4.25, high

Stephan

June
JAXA: 3.75 - 4.25, high
NSIDC:  4 - 4.5, high

jdallen

June
JAXA: 3.75 - 4.25, high
NSIDC: 4 - 4.5, high

Neven

June

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium


Juan C. García

June

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, médium
NSIDC: 3.75 to 4.25, médium

Richard Rathbone

June

Jaxa: 3.75-4.25, Medium
NSIDC 4.0 - 4.5, Medium

Sterks

June

Jaxa: 3.75-4.25, Medium
NSIDC 4.0 - 4.5, Medium

Aluminium

June

JAXA: 3.5-4.0 high.
NSIDC: 4.0-4.5 medium.

Brigantine

June

JAXA 3.75 - 4.25 medium
NSIDC 4.25 - 4.75 medium

slow wing

June

JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.00 to 4.50, medium

jplotinus

June

JAXA: 4.25-4.75, low
NSIDC: 4.50-5.00, low

Gerontocrat

June

JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, High
NSIDC: 4.00 to 4.50, High

Steven

June

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium

138
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 09, 2019, 07:20:51 AM »
Does it update on a certain day of the month?

I'm not sure, but certainly it seems to update in the first week. To be honest, I'm much more worried by the numbers on increasing world hunger over the last few years that I've linked to before. But those only update annually.

139
Arctic sea ice / Re: September Predictions Challenge
« on: June 07, 2019, 02:29:30 PM »
Ok, I might make a new 2019 post for this. Everyone happy if we stick to the same rules for the sake of continuity?

140
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 07, 2019, 06:52:13 AM »
FAO Food Price Index is up again for the fifth straight month http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Again, the rise is mainly driven by dairy, but cereals prices are also up based on decreased production forecasts from the USA.

141
Arctic sea ice / Re: September Predictions Challenge
« on: June 06, 2019, 07:42:19 AM »
2019 June prediction:
JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.25 to 4.75, medium

142
Arctic sea ice / Re: September Predictions Challenge
« on: June 05, 2019, 08:15:05 PM »
Anyone tempted to do this again this year?

143
 4.25 to 4.75.  Too often I've gone too low in my June prediction, and the forum as a whole has a strong tendency to do so, so I'm playing it cautious.

144
 I've gone for 4 to 4.5, in keeping with the last 4 years.

EDIT: Gone down to the 3.75 to 4.25 bin after a browse of the melting season thread.

145
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 03, 2019, 06:42:08 AM »
Food prices in REAL terms (which means adjusted for inflation) are where they were in the 60s and 70s, and only 50% higher than at the multidecade lows around 2000, when oil prices were only a third of today's. That is quite amazing in itself since oil prices drive food prices very much.

Indeed, it's impressive that so far food prices have been as steady as they have in spite of rising oil prices, freshwater depletion & contamination, fish stock depletion, 80m more mouths to feed each year, desertification, general climate change-related disruption etc.

So far, of course, being a key point to note. I'm not sure how much longer this can go on.

146
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: May 31, 2019, 01:42:14 PM »
The FAO's food price index has been rising all year so far, and is currently at a 10-month high, although it's still lower than last year was in the same month: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Dairy prices in particular have shot up lately.

147
The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: May 25, 2019, 11:14:39 AM »
I'm a bit disturbed by how well the Brexit party is polling. How many of them are aware that Nigel Farage is thoroughly alt right in his political views, do you suppose? (Not to mention a climate change denialist to boot).
Since this is an election without consequences, the EU parliament is little more than an expensive rubber stamp for the idealogically 'neoliberal' bureaucracy, it is a perfect opportunity to give the idealogical 'neoliberal' professional politicians of both major parties the finger/Vsign/insult of choice, and whilst one may not agree with his politics, whatever they are[?] , his speeches in the EU parliament are quite funny. I'm not sure about the tory side but expect the 'left' to return to 'tribal' voting come the Westminster elections.
Prescience has great value the slog was informed by sources in Brussels and Washington that we [uk] would not be allowed to leave, he recently posted Blast from the past

I don't find Farage funny at all.  The man's an alt right climate change denier whose main mission in life seems to be to sever Britain's ties with half its allies and all of its neighbours.  When he isn't off making alliances with equally alt right types by campaigning for Trump or for AFD.

Just like BoJo and Trump, look beneath the clownish facial expressions at how he actually treats people, the beliefs he's actually expressed, and the other politicians he allied with both in UKIP and in the Brexit party.

148
The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: May 15, 2019, 05:20:54 PM »
I'm a bit disturbed by how well the Brexit party is polling. How many of them are aware that Nigel Farage is thoroughly alt right in his political views, do you suppose? (Not to mention a climate change denialist to boot).

149
Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 09, 2019, 03:11:55 PM »
Paddy said:
 Global oil demand still trending upwards, but slower than before, at about 110m barrels of crude oil a day.

I am not so sure about this. It might be my old PO background, but I doubt shale fracking + oil sands can continue rising to that point, and I understand conventional has already peaked.
Also, I would be pleasantly surprised if the temperature rise held down to a tenth to a fifth of a degree Celsius.

Good point on oil production. Even without a total inability to meet demand, high prices could indeed choke demand in the coming years.

And yes, my assumption of near term temperature rise does assume a fairly gradual acceleration from the recent rate. I hope that I'm right, but I'm not certain.

150
Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 09, 2019, 07:14:44 AM »
Assuming no massive disruptive events:

2030 population: Approx 8.5 billion people
Annual population growth: Approx 70 million people per year.

(These population figures are assuming that total births would be the same as today at 140m / year, and that deaths would have risen gradually to about 70m / year due to the population ageing).

Global temperature: About 0.1 to 0.2 degrees celsius warmer than today (taking e.g. a five year average to smooth out annual or subannual variations like El Nino etc).

Arctic sea ice extent: about 2m to 3m square km at minimum and 13m to 14m at max.

Sea level: Approx 5cm higher than today

Human behavioural changes: Renewables making up the majority of new power plant construction, but the bulk of power production still being done with old non-renewable plants. Similarly, the majority of new car sales, especially in high income countries, being either electric or hybrid, but the bulk of cars on the world's roads being older ICE cars. Global oil demand still trending upwards, but slower than before, at about 110m barrels of crude oil a day.

Food prices: trending upwards. Number of people going hungry also trending slowly upwards again, reversing improvements in the first half of the century.

Am I an optimist or a pessimist?  Not sure.

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 13