Messages

251

Policy and solutions / Re: Future Governmental Structures

« on: August 20, 2013, 12:26:02 AM »

When it comes to Peru, I don't think we shall be to worried about their domestic food production, even though Peru is highly vulnerable to climate events, such as El Ninos and melting glaciers. As JimD mentions they have a huge production capasity in their vast areas of untouched rainforest. This is also the case, I think, for rest of South America. Despite the fact that they are very vulnerable to climate change (just look at the rollercoster which the water levels of the Amazon river have gone through during recent years), their food production capasity outnumber their own population to such an extent that I think they will be self sustained with food despite of climate change's dire effects.

However, that said, this does NOT mean in any way that South American countries will thrive, as if though they where on their own in the world, they may not even do fairly good. All countries that have food will, in a not to distante future, have a resource that everybody very strongly demands, which is not always a very good thing. Just look at what happened to Africa, they had copper, gold, silver and virtually anything else that was in great demand and today they find themselves at the very bottom for the world order. If countries like Brazil and Argentina were among the richest in the world, then they would be in a golden position, but they are not. As the Power of US has gradually decreased, virtually all South American countries have been able to showcase growth and progress for the last decade, but with the exception of Chile perhaps, they all remain poor. Their gouverments are not very solid, nor are their economies especially well structured and the huge gap between different layers of society as well as high crime rates, remains a constant problem for all South American countries, that include of course Peru. A country such as China (or you might as well say South-Korea or Japan), with its economic muscles and a desperate need to feed a far to big population, would have both the motive, and means, to destabilize and eventually seize great control over the resources to a fragile region such as South America. That is, after all, what the US have been doing for the last century.

In the end I predict an ever so slightly increase in autocratism and the number of old fashion ruthless dictatorships, both in Peru and the rest of South America, though some countries will resist giving up its resouces more strongly that others, something that might again spark some quite significant military conflicts. There are many examples of attempted "colonizations", resulting in full scale revolutions that eventually have lead to all kinds of different regimes as well as huge regional conflicts.

252

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling

« on: August 17, 2013, 03:05:26 PM »

Buoy 2013E, just North of farm, is reporting nearly -10 ºC today. That must be very cold for this time of the year, even at 85º north.

253

Policy and solutions / Re: Future Governmental Structures

« on: August 16, 2013, 01:10:31 AM »

That is a fairly good review of Bangladesh Jim, and I don't think we will have to wait to the end of the century before the entire state practically dissolve. Actually I think the situation will get so bad that India will have to interfere militarily in order to prevent the chaos, as well as the mass migration, from dragging the entire region in to the mud. Probably occupying the country, with the excuse that it seeks to reestablish order and prevent a bloodbath. However, India have got some serious issues to deal with itself, being a chronically overpopulated country, highly dependent on fragile climate patterns and not having the best organized goverment and economy, in addition to having some quite large population centers located at sea level. Other muslim countries, I can imagine, will not be very happy with India occupying a muslim country either, especially not the arch enemy Pakistan. Because of all this, I think that India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will end up among the group of countries, where a goverment will be practically nonexistent in the not to remote future. Being like a gigant Syria, where a variety of different rivaling militias and rebel groups constantly fight eachother over religious and ideological issues in the middle of an enormous humaniterian disaster, a conflict fueled by the involvment of foreign powers and the continous presence of climate change.

Myanmar (Burma), on another hand, which is somewhat better of (having less issues with overcrowding), may try to distance itself from the havoc and large groups of migrants, coming from Bangladesh, by building a large wall, of fence, along its western border. The last thing they want is even more muslim refugees creating ethnical conflicts. A move that will be partly financed by China and other countries in South East Asia in a desperate attempt to keep the chaos away from their doorsteps. (This is becoming highly speculative, but that is what this thread is all about, isn't it?). In fact, I think any future goverment in Myanmar that is able to keep the country together, will have the blessing of China (whether it is a democratic of authoritarian one) and that Myanmar therefore has good chance of surviving for quite a while, despite neighbouring countries Bangladesh and India getting into severe trouble.

254

Policy and solutions / Re: Future Governmental Structures

« on: August 14, 2013, 05:12:09 PM »

Ned W. Back in mid 19th-century, people all over the world started pumping this black substance called oil in a reckless pursuit of unlimited growth. When we first started doing this we did not have the slightest idea what the long term consequences of this would be, as a result we have a global warming which today poses a tremendous threat to our society. You might say that this is not an existential threat because of our ability to adapt, but that doesn't really matter to me. What matters is that back in the 19th-century we did not know what we were doing. If CO2 had turned out to have the same effects as methane or various ozon depleting gasses, then we would all be dead before anyone knew what was going on, and, I can assure you, we would not have been able to adapt.

This system that created climate change in pursuit of growth is basicly the same system that we have in the west today, a system that continues to pursuit growth on the expence of sustainability, and that in my oppinion gives no reason to be optimistic about the future. My point is that this positive trend of yours has no predictable value what so ever when this trend is created by a system that is not sustainable. It may collapse any time, actually, I think it will collapse any time because we have such a negligent attitude toward climate change, and seemingly we aren't even trying to adapt. What comes afterwards is chaos and a surge in fascism, communism and nationalism. Liberal democracies, I think, will not be found in abundance.