If I may ask, any changes of the weather prospects during the past two days?
Sounds like an apropriate question to ask. First, the thing that seemed very plausible two days ago is now almost certain to become reality, that is (to steal one of frivs colorful expressions) the Pacific side is about to get "nuked". In about 36 hours from now, a massive heat wave will enter ESS and grow to cover most of the Pacific side by the 120h mark, after which forecasts start to shake, the 850 hPa temps will be beyond anything I can remember seeing up there, for a sustained time period at least.
The longer term forecasts are now trying to decide whether or not this Pacific heat dome will be able to link up with other pools hot air over central Siberia and Greenland in order to put virtually all of the remaining sea ice under one big sledge hammer. Yesterdays 12 run featured such a linkup in its "fantasy range", but despite todays 00 being almost the opposite it still features strong melt throughout the entire run. For melt intensity is to return to normal or below normal by July 10th, one both have to chase away the pacific heat and block more heat from entering the arctic somewhere else. Something which seems possible, but highly unlikely.
Even though one can presume July will be of to a flying start, there is a lot of catching up to do (area and extent wise at least). The maps attached below show the average sea ice concentration for July 1st (2002-2014), 2015-average and 2015-2012 respectively. It now looks like the total amount of ice in the central regions is pretty average (slightly ahead maybe), but actually 2012 isn't terribly far ahead. Baffin and Hudson are apparently inflating the numbers pretty significantly, more so than Kara is pulling in the other direction, at least compared to 2012.