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Messages - solartim27

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The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: April 13, 2020, 04:34:08 PM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:38:43 PM »
Hard to believe that Italy is saying that they need to stop testing because theyre finding to many positive samples.  In regards to the US, we have 2+ weeks of community transmission,  makes me think of a tweet i saw yesterday, "I'm giving up hope for lent"

Number of tests and positivity rate for Covid-19 as of Feb. 26

UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). [source]
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 470 positive (5.0% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. [source]
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results. [source]
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. [source]
United States: 445 concluded tests, of which 14 positive (3.1% positivity rate). [source]

Italy has announced on Feb. 26 that it would begin testing only people with symptoms, claiming that the higher number of cases (compared to other European countries) is due to more tests being conducted.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 26, 2020, 06:34:36 AM »
This site has been mentioned previously, but this thread has grown quite a bit since then.  With the outbreak breaking to so many different countries, this page gives a great overview, with highlighted changes.  I believe it is updated 2x per day, might be more.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: February 13, 2020, 03:46:02 PM »
I was very surprised that they are burning Kerosene in the current engines. There are rumors that cleaner fuel engines are in development.
From Smithsonian Magazine (which had lots of ads)
So what could possibly be wrong with this groundbreaking test flight? While visually appealing, cheaper and a major technological advancement, what about the environmental impact? The rocket is reusable, which means cutting down the resources required for the metal body of the rocket. However, the mass of most rockets are more than 95% fuel. Building bigger rockets with bigger payloads means more fuel is used for each launch. The current fuel for Falcon Heavy is RP-1 (a refined kerosene) and liquid oxygen, which creates a lot of carbon dioxide when burnt.

The amount of kerosene in three Falcon 9 rockets is roughly 440 tonnes and RP-1 has a 34 percent carbon content. This amount of carbon is a drop in the ocean compared to global industrial emissions as a whole, but if the SpaceX’s plan for a rocket launch every two weeks comes to fruition, this amount of carbon (approximately 4,000 tonnes per year) will rapidly become a bigger problem.

The LA Times has a good article going into more depth

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 13, 2020, 03:26:25 PM »
I may be wrong, but tropics are usually good habitats for pathogens probably because of high humidity all year round.

It's the higher latitudes that see outbreaks during cold and wet months and less activity during summer.
There is an interesting U shaped curve for virus and bacteria viability from a recent paper. It is paywalled, but the abstract is pretty comprehensive.  There is also a NIH paper from 2008, showing how the lipid shell making up the outer wall of a virus hardens at lower temperature, making it much more stable. So though I hate to say it, the orange idiot is right about the spring reducing transmission.
Humidity-Dependent Decay of Viruses, but Not Bacteria, in Aerosols and Droplets Follows Disinfection Kinetics
Kaisen LinLinsey C. Marr*
The transmission of some infectious diseases requires that pathogens can survive (i.e., remain infectious) in the environment, outside the host. Relative humidity (RH) is known to affect the survival of some microorganisms in the environment; however, the mechanism underlying the relationship has not been explained, particularly for viruses. We investigated the effects of RH on the viability of bacteria and viruses in both suspended aerosols and stationary droplets using traditional culture-based approaches. Results showed that viability of bacteria generally decreased with decreasing RH. Viruses survived well at RHs lower than 33% and at 100%, whereas their viability was reduced at intermediate RHs. We then explored the evaporation rate of droplets consisting of culture media and the resulting changes in solute concentrations over time; as water evaporates from the droplets, solutes such as sodium chloride in the media become more concentrated. Based on the results, we suggest that inactivation of bacteria is influenced by osmotic pressure resulting from elevated concentrations of salts as droplets evaporate. We propose that the inactivation of viruses is governed by the cumulative dose of solutes or the product of concentration and time, as in disinfection kinetics. These findings emphasize that evaporation kinetics play a role in modulating the survival of microorganisms in droplets.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 24, 2020, 04:35:44 PM »
Well, this has taken longer than I expected.  I'm going to go on a ledge and say this summer for sure.
Here's a link to Bert Wouters latest tweet
35 Mb image

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 23, 2020, 05:11:04 PM »
Unfortunately a tanker plane fighting the fires has crashed, killing 3.  The article says deaths caused by the fires stand at 32 now.

The crash, which occurred near Cooma, northeast of the Snowy Mountains, comes as Australia continues fighting massive bushfires fueled by record-setting temperatures. A fire southeast of Canberra, one of several firefighters are battling, has engulfed nearly 1,000 square miles and is considered out of control.

“YOU are very aware that if something goes wrong, it goes very wrong very quickly,” says Joanne Johnson, speaking from her tent near Thwaites glacier in one of the remotest parts of Antarctica."
What is "very quickly"? To a geologist that might be centuries.
To someone at one of the most remote places on Earth, it could be a matter of seconds. I believe the quote was about their safety.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 04, 2020, 08:05:48 PM »
new small calving on the eastern front

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 30, 2019, 04:45:48 PM »
More activity developing at the northeast notch.  All the recent large calvings started with a calving here.
Original file 50 Mb

Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:01:06 AM »
The findings of the linked reference imply that current ice shelf models err on the side of least drama with regard to ice mass loss associated with relatively warm ocean water beneath such ice shelves, as illustrated by measurements from the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica:

Rippin, D. M.: Significant submarine ice loss from the Getz Ice Shelf, Antarctica, The Cryosphere Discuss.,, in review, 2018.
New calving at Getz, short gif at link

Antarctica / Re: The Ross Ice Shelf Thread
« on: July 23, 2019, 04:32:20 PM »
Interesting article showing that the Ross melting is from local effects, mostly solar.  Good description of the equipment used.

The Rosetta scientists took a new approach to gather data from the Ross Sea. They deployed six profiling floats called Air-Launched Autonomous Micro Observer, or ALAMO, floats. They fastened parachutes to the floats and launched them out of a New York Air National Guard airplane from 2,500 feet above the icy waters below. The instruments were programmed to avoid sea ice that could damage their external sensors and antennae. In addition, the team took a novel approach by "parking" the floats on the sea floor between profiling so as to limit their drifting on ocean currents.

More information: David F. Porter et al, Evolution of the Seasonal Surface Mixed Layer of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, Observed With Autonomous Profiling Floats, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014683

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Tectonics
« on: July 04, 2019, 02:07:49 PM »
Newly identified lava lake, raises the number on the earth to 8. 
Scientists spotted a ‘geothermal anomaly” in the crater Mount Michael on Saunders Island, which is located in the British overseas territory

They then discovered an underground lake with a diameter of between 90 and 215 metres in diameter with molten lava at temperatures of roughly 1,000 degrees Celsius or more.

Policy and solutions / Re: Planes, planes....too many planes
« on: June 23, 2019, 07:23:42 PM »
I flew to NY to visit family, and assist my sons moving to a new apartment.  On my plane was a high school soccer team returning after a 3 day trip for a tournament.  Seems insane.

Science / Re: Earthquakes and climate change
« on: April 10, 2019, 04:33:37 PM »
I listened to a podcast from KPCC about prepping for a big quake. Very informative.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 20, 2019, 07:45:06 PM »

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: March 19, 2019, 06:03:23 PM »
I wonder if the expeditions got a close up of this good sized calving and breakup.  Shots from Polarview Mar 3 to 18th, though the breakup happened a bit earlier.

Arctic background / Re: Antarctic Expeditions
« on: February 21, 2019, 04:12:47 PM »
There was a medical emergency on the Palmer, requiring them to stop research.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: February 20, 2019, 04:28:54 PM »
Latest Polarview shot. Have some clear skies on Worldview, so hopefully there's a Sentinel nearby.  31 MB link

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: January 31, 2019, 04:57:19 AM »
Good summary and pictures of above here:

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 19, 2019, 01:52:25 AM »
Sentinel came through today, gif from 29 Nov to 18 Jan, NDWI band.  Not quite there yet.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 18, 2019, 07:51:44 PM »
Worldview shows lots of development over the last four weeks, but the resolution is not high enough to see for certain.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 18, 2019, 07:38:07 PM »
World view is nice and clear today, hopefully we can get a visual shot this weekend.  Looks like the cracks might have joined up right upstream of the ice rise.  (32 MB)

The area you have circled is just sea ice now that it has separated from the glacier, though it might qualify as an ice shelf.  The calving front is about 20 miles further in.  Gif from Nov 29 to Jan 1, lots of motion visible. I wonder where the grounding line is these days.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: December 31, 2018, 05:24:21 PM »
There was an almost clear Sentinel shot of Brunt on the 29th.  Here's a gif from September until then from the playground in natural color, and a 2nd shot in the same area with the NDWI band selected. ( Note the 3 km scale bar in the lower right corner )

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 31, 2018, 04:21:09 AM »
Interesting development in the notch area, and lots of tabular berg breakup action in the first picture.  The second picture shows the large chunk of fast ice at the head of the tributary peninsula starting to break off.  I woder how much calving can happen with the bay jammed with sea ice this year (unlike 2016 and 2017).
From  (44 MB)

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: December 31, 2018, 04:04:15 AM »
Here's a worldview GIF from the end of November to the end of December. Hard to say if the crack really expanded that much, or if it's just surface snow melting, blowing, or something to make it more visible.  A nice Sentinel shot would be nice around now.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: December 31, 2018, 03:55:45 AM »
Looks to me like there is significant crack development right to the left of the Longitude line.  That doesn't mean that if it does go all the way that the berg will move anywhere, or any time soon, but I feel there is a non-zero chance that Brunt could break apart this summer.
Snip from   (31 MB)

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 21, 2018, 05:48:31 PM »
The good news is that this is self limiting, in that as the glacier melts away, the conditions to release the methane break down.  As the current equivalent is cow's, this source equals 136,000.
At Sólheimajökull when the meltwater reaches the glacier bed, it comes into contact with gases produced by the Katla volcano. These gases lower the oxygen content of the water, meaning some of the methane produced by the microbes can be dissolved into the water and transported out of the glacier without being converted to CO2.

Dr. Hugh Tuffen, a volcanologist at Lancaster University and co-author on the study, said: "The heat from Katla volcano may greatly accelerate the generation of microbial methane, so in fact you could see Katla as a giant microbial incubator./quote]

A very small, nothing to worry about calving at Thwaites, of only about 10 miles.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:00:00 PM »

Due to Neven's management style in this forum I have decided to stop posting here,


Well, that sucks.  Thanks for all the input.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 11, 2018, 08:32:13 AM »
Disturbing thread about an uncontained nuclear meltdown and other historic toxic pollution at the Santa Susana Field Laboratory near the Woolsey fire

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:22:44 PM »
A post 10 minutes ago said they were trying to get a bus in to evacuate 70 people (Around 1 pm PST)

Imagine being stuck in traffic, flames leaping through your hometown, and a firefighter knocks on your car window says "get out, we have to go right now" and pulls you into a Walgreens as your best hope of surviving

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: November 07, 2018, 05:10:39 PM »
Article has a short video clip of Sperm Whales off of Nunavut, apparently only the second sighting so far north.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: November 07, 2018, 07:45:35 AM »
Here is a wider view of the Brunt Ice Shelf showing the other side of the Halloween Crack.  Looks like there is a chance for a significant  calving there.
Original image 53 mb

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: November 05, 2018, 06:57:14 PM »
Very nice animation from July 30, 2016 to Oct 30 2018

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 30, 2018, 05:20:10 PM »
Nice Sentinel 1 gif of the rift progression

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: October 30, 2018, 06:25:12 AM »
Okay, so that's two in a row, but it still looks weird.  Original 10 mb

The politics / Re: Brazil just elected a fascist
« on: October 29, 2018, 06:02:44 AM »
Not just ethnogenecide, but planetcide

It’s also ethnocide - there are indigenous people throughout The Brazilian rainforest who are being killed, their lands/homes destroyed ... being totally wiped out.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 29, 2018, 05:50:47 AM »
We have met the enemy, and he is us
it is possible for crevasses to initiate at depths of 10–30m. From December 2006 to January 2007, hot-water drilling on Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, was found to trigger crevasses.

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic images
« on: October 29, 2018, 05:21:03 AM »
Nice shot of Beaver Lake in the Prince Charles Mountains

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 29, 2018, 03:56:18 AM »
That's a serious crack if you  can see it through clouds on worldview.  Dare we say it's calved again?  Aqua  band  Oct 28

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: October 29, 2018, 03:44:56 AM »
Here's a snip from the latest Polarview.  Looks like Chasm 1 has joined up with the Halloween crack, but hard to say for certain.  I find the straightness of the new crack section to be a concern, perhaps a data glitch in that area? Of course we just saw the rectangular bergs.  Even if it is all the way through, it still may not move significantly.  It also looks to me like there is also a crack extension heading to the coast, but perhaps I need to clean my glasses.
Original image 34 mb

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 25, 2018, 04:06:04 AM »
The pinning berg on the Tributary glacier is starting to break up.  All the cracks seem to have progressed fully across PIG.  Still impossible to say when it will go.  Previous large calvings have been preceded by smaller calvings in the left hand notch area, I would expect the same this time.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: October 21, 2018, 05:28:53 PM »
Looks to me like Chasm 1 has made a connection to the coast, though I suppose that doesn't mean it will go anywhere right away.  Anyone have a Sentinel or Lands at image?  Snip from Polar view, original is 15 mb

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