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Messages - Lord M Vader

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1
August 3 today. Let's see if the volume numbers for July will show up today. And if we will get a new record low volume for July 31.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 09:02:29 PM »
EC also has a dipole, a weak one though. Of ligger concern is a high pressure that is foreseen to set up over the Beaufort Sea. If that forecast holds we might see really big extent losses after 8/10.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:11:26 PM »
GFS has a dipole set up after D9. Very far out but might be a serious concern if later runs agrees.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 09:55:02 PM »
Gerontocrat, also seems like 2008 had a big spike.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 10:11:04 AM »
Crossposting from the thread about SIE around Antarctica wrt polynyas:

"Putting this info in this thread hoping it will get some attention. A possibly concerning feature that has shown up again this year is the polynya at East Antarctica. It appeared back in 2016-2017 but in the Weddell Sea. According to a scientific study these polynyas might have an impact on the global temperature prompting warming in the years after their appearance."



https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2017-09-antarctic-sea-ice-affect-worldwide.amp

6
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: July 27, 2020, 10:06:41 AM »
Putting this info in this thread hoping it will get some attention. A possibly concerning feature that has shown up again this year is the polynya at East Antarctica. It appeared back in 2016-2017 but in the Weddell Sea. According to a scientific study these polynyas might have an impact on the global temperature prompting warming in the years after their appearance.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2017-09-antarctic-sea-ice-affect-worldwide.amp

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 09:07:52 AM »
From Aluminiums post and Worldview you can see that a small hole in the ice is showing up about 70 km from the pole. Needs to follow up closely in the next couple of weeks. Remains to see if it will grow in size or not.

Wrt the läst days slow losses: one reason is that the Laptev bite has withdrawn the last few days. Check Aluminiums five day animation

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 27, 2020, 05:32:15 AM »
July 26: 5,962,825 Km2. A small drop by -31,737 km2. 2020 is still lowest on record.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 11:23:18 PM »
Rick Thoman shows how close to average the Beaufort Sea is this year wrt SIE.



https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1285990099381977088?cxt=HHwWgICopdLL4NgjAAAA

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 11:18:45 PM »
New all time high at Eureka, Canada, with 21.9° and a new monthly record at Hall Beach, Canada, with 23.2°. As already stated, Svalbard Lufthavn recorded a new all time high by 21.7°.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EKMeteo/status/1287365742099398657

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadaGooseBC/status/1287462113863258113

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 10:17:47 AM »
First, Resolutes all-time-high is 20.1° from July 2 by 2012.

Second, Friv, I think your map over the minimum is somewhat pessimistic. I don't think that the Laptev bite will make it all the way to the pole. It should be close though and only depend on that time is running out. A bite reaching to 88-89°N seems very realistic given that HYCOM is right. A minimum around 3MN km2 is right now a likely outcome.

Third, the latest forecast from EC is very problematic. The Beaufort should get seriously hammered by the sub 980-cyclone. And the extent losses will likely be slow or very slow for the rest of July.

Fourth, another thing of concern is how much ESS and Chukchi will warm up until fall and cooling will start. Kara, Laptev and Baffin are supercharged with heat and will take time to cool down.

And finally, fifth, a new record low extent is not the worst thing to happen. A new records low volume is. And especially if we are going to see the thickest ice take a huge damage the next 10 days. That should make next melting season primed for another record low. We can't hope for another winter with such a strong polar vortex.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 10:40:26 AM »
Thanks Oren and ofc Wipneus for that! Very informative charts. If we translate the 0.71m boundary to a map, where will the sea ice likely survive this melt season?

And what happened during 2000? We are used to talk about 2007 as a game changer for the sea ice but 2000? Not a melting year that has anchored in my mind so to say.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 09:07:15 PM »
Seems like the CAA will get smoked next 10 days according to the EURO. Atlantic side will remain warm the upcoming 10 days. The Pacific side will be cold but it remains to see how deep and persistent the LP will be.


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 08:54:52 AM »
Depending on the evolution it seems that a pattern shift might be underway. From high pressure to a cyclonic and windy start of August. EC operational run is depicting this idea. Remains to ser if the op run is an outlier or if the ensemble agrees about this.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 09:41:13 PM »
I hope it is just my eyes, but look at the ice in the Laptev sector at around 87-88°N and you can see that it has started to get brownish. :o This is just sooo bad!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 19, 2020, 09:33:08 PM »
Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 19, 2020, 06:06:19 PM »
Juan C, what outcome do we get if we use the most conservative historical numbers from now and onward? Where would that minimum end up in terms of SIE?

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 06:04:23 PM »
What numbers do we get if we use the most konservative numbers from now and onward?

19
Thanks Wipneus!🙂

Only a fourth place?! :o How far away are we from first place for the date?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2020)
« on: July 19, 2020, 09:45:47 AM »
Anyone who knows if we are going to see some mid-monthly numbers wrt the sea ice volume?

Wipneus?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:58:41 AM »
In fact, the 00z EC run is even WORSE after D7 as it targets the area where the thickest ice is. As always, it is far out but if that forecast comes true we should virtually for sure see a new record low volume this year.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:53:38 AM »
00z EC has a terrible solution for the ice after D7. If it materializes ofc.

This season is just like the world today: CRAZY!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 10:00:23 AM »
Wow, 00z EC depicts a burning Atlantic side in the later part of the modell run. Should seriously damage the remaining thick ice in that area.
The Pacific side OTOH should cool down significantly if the forecast holds. But that won't be much of benefit for the ice there as most of it already has suffered strong damage. EC ensemble confirms this idea.

On the good side, EC doesn't have a bombcyclone in this run. But that should be the only positive with this run.

Btw, thank you for your answers wrt July bombcyclones.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 09:11:35 PM »
Anyone who knows what the most intensive Arctic cyclone in July is? Have there been any cases below 970 hpa in July?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:10:47 PM »
That was an interesting pic Jim Hunt! Thank you! That pic should highlight a discussion whether we are going to see earlier seasonal minimums in the future when more of the inner CAB starts to melt out during summer.

So far, I think the earliest minimum according to NSIDC has occurred around 9/5.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 08:58:08 PM »
And after the bombcyclone a heat dome might enter the Atlantic side. The sea ice might get a really tough week!

Friv, from Tidbits I "only" see the bombcyclone down to 972 hpa.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 08:01:11 PM »
In a few days we"ll hopefully get the mid-monthly volume numbers from PSC. By then we should have a clue about what's going on.

One possible outcome for this season is a records low volume but not a record low extent number.

The key to beat 2012 should be Beaufort Sea and I'm not sure there will be enough melting there from now and up to the minimum.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 14, 2020, 05:32:03 PM »
Worldview NASA hints about that the Northern Sea Route might have opened up today. Anyone who can confirm or refute that?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 13, 2020, 05:36:21 AM »
Sorry Juan but we have to wait a few more days until it is time to take the kayak. Ice is still blocking the Route just West of Severnaya Zemlya.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 12, 2020, 09:39:34 PM »
It is hard to see but the Northern Route has not opened up yet. Look very closely at the ice close to Severnaya Zemlya and you will see that ice is still blocking the Route. However, the Route will likely open up by next week.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 09:34:48 PM »
Sea ice thickness and its anomaly in June. H/t to Zack Labe.


https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1281212689973272576/photo/1

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 10:00:58 PM »
ArcticMelt: a possible explanation might be an earlier melt onset in 2012 and perhaps less snow cover onto the ice.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 09:06:36 PM »
Yes, both GFS and EC are in line with each other. And it is a terrible forecast for ice retention. The question is not if it is going to be bad but HOW bad the situation will be for the ice. Two weeks with relentless sunshine and melt ponding over the CAB will take it's toll. The volume numbers should drop like a big stone.

I don't think we want to ser what's going to happen if that high pressure lingers another 1-2 weeks when we enter August.. :o

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:48:21 PM »
The latest forecast from both GFS and EC is just BRUTAL. If this high pressure dome manages to hold out for the next 10 days, this season should very likely end up among the top 5 melting seasons. In the unlikely event that the GFS run would be able to hold for the next two weeks, or more, we should prepare for an ONSLAUGHT of the sea ice.

Was it back in 2015 we had an impressive high pressure that compensated for the cold June?

Friv will most likely come up with a very colorful language soon😎

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 10:09:53 AM »
The 00z EC run is just as bad as the 12z run. The main question should be for how long the bad weather will persist? Ten days would clearly have a very big impact given that the suns power is starting to fade.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 06:22:51 PM »
Friv, the reason for the low extent in the russian Arctic back in 1990 might be due to the strong polar vortex that was prevalent during January to March that year.

Wrt 2020, I do not expect a new record low this year. The most interesting questions this season should be how early the Northern Sea Route will open up and how far North the Laptev bite will reach?

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 13, 2020, 09:01:37 AM »
If EC run verifies we will in a couple of days enter a favorable pattern for ice retention. Should have a decent effect at this melting season.

OTOH, if the GFS model run verifies the Arctic will see a very bad pattern for ice retention.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 30, 2020, 09:14:27 PM »
Latest EC 12z op model run is a tough one for the sea nice if it would verify. Especially for the later part of the forecast run.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 12, 2020, 08:38:43 AM »
Kara should implode soon.

Another area that should see damage is the area just north of Svalbard. Hammered by a 961 hpa bomb cyclone in tandem with a 1044 hpa high pressure over the CAB will push some thick ice piled up there out in the Atlantic killer zone. However, this won't last long but should nevertheless have an impact on the ice.

Later in the forecast period, Laptev will take a big hit.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 12, 2020, 06:07:18 AM »
Kara should go berserk soon as the WAA is heading for the area.

41
Arctic sea ice / The 2020 melting season
« on: March 13, 2020, 10:24:24 PM »
The last couple of days have seen a decline in the sea ice extent in Arctic, mostly confined to peripheral areas. Whether this downward trend is signaling the "onset" of the melting is an open question. However, we are in the middle of March and this year the upcoming weeks will probably be terribly slow for most of us. So, if Neven is OK with maning an exception for this year I hope we can start the discussions about the 2020 melting season.

The strong polar vortex that bottled up the cold air over the central Arctic basin should have strengthened the ice enough to make the 2020 minimum end up higher than the last few years. At least if we Have a moderately bad summer.

I hope everyone in here will be with us through the whole season and many more years ahead. Stay safe out there!

//LMV

<edit Neven: I don't have time to follow current events in the Arctic, so I can't assess whether it's too early for this thread or not, which means I'll leave it open. I did adjust the title though. If there's a second max, this is on you, LMV.  ;) >

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2020, 05:41:11 AM »
Juan C: which are the other years next to 2004? I.e the years at place 16-20.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 02, 2019, 09:41:21 AM »
Once Laptev Sea has frozen over we will very likely see a big slowdown in externt increases. Main difference right now is in Kara Sea. OTOH, Chukchi Sea continues to be at record low levels.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 26, 2019, 07:04:09 AM »
Don't worry Juan, in a couple of days 2016 will be lowest on record. Any thing else would be surprising.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2019, 07:19:59 PM »
If we are eyeballing DMIs graph over Arctic temperaturen, we should start to see some decent extent gains soon. As Friv has pointed out earlier in another thread we should be very grateful that the melting in ESS was so resistent. Otherwise, the situation would have been a lot worse.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2019, 06:40:35 PM »
A few days ago, NSIDC reported a 70k loss. Being in October it has to be a rather rare occurrence. Anyone who knows how common externt losses are in October?

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 10:30:24 AM »
Archimid and Stephen, you should reiterate your posts from that thread too. After that, Neven can probably remove it.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 10:27:10 AM »
Apparently, Neven didn't reopen my refreezing thread that was first I will reiterate my text from my post in that thread:

"First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020...."

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2019, 10:58:47 PM »
Rox: Most likely yes. NSIDC 5-day average had a minor increase today. Up from 4,153 to 4,154 million square kilometers.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2019, 10:00:59 PM »
Neven, are you reopening the refreezing thread today or tomorrow?  ;)

The fat lady has finally sung...

Great job Gerontocrat and Juan C. Garcia, thank you both 8) 8) You have earned a very well deserved rest now :)

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