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Messages - Lord M Vader

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:08:05 PM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Wandel Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Wandel Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2020, 12:06:06 AM »
Thank you Juan C!

Are JAXA numbers only going back to 2000? While 3,89 Mn km2 from 2013-2014 is the most conservative numbers for the last 20 years, how much is that value valid if we use the much more unlikely numbers for the early years1979-2000?
Here are the ADS (JAXA) numbers for all the years (1st. attachment).

It is interesting 2006, that was a very bad year on May, June and the first half of July, but it stopped the strong melting afterwards. 2020 will have 4.24M km2 at the end of the melting season, if it follows the melting of 2006.

Comparing 2005 and 2006, 2005 was the September lowest on record at his time and 2006 was in the path of being the new lowest on record, before it stopped its fast melting (2nd. attachment, NSIDC Graph).

As an anecdote, -in my opinion- 2005 & 2006 were the years that made some scientists think that the IPCC models were very conservative. They published their study on 2007, but it was before the huge melting of the 2007 summer. Of course, after the melt of 2007, this study and specially the graph, became famous.

I miss this graph, that compares the IPCC models with the real values (3rd. & 4th. attachments). I hope they will have it again to evaluate the new models (Sounds hard, but it is a fact to me: I don't trust the old & new IPCC models, if I don't have this graph to show how they really work).

This study was:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Julienne Stroeve,1 Marika M. Holland,2 Walt Meier,1 Ted Scambos,1 and Mark Serreze1
Received 15 February 2007; accepted 26 March 2007; published 1 May 2007.

P.S. The years in yellow have not ADS (JAXA) official data. Average used.

P.S. [2] I started on topic and I ended off topic.
I recommend that we follow this subject in "Freeform season chatter and light commentary":

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 06:37:16 AM »
BOE may happen at the end of the melting season if central arctic will be likely heated for such a long time.

Not happening.

The pole might be ice free.

It's realistic that the remaining ice will be confined to the Southern 2/3rd of the CAB, Greenland sea, Northern CAA, and Beaufort. 

But we are not going to see anything close to a melt out.

Getting under 3.0 million km2 isnt very likely extent wise.

What is at stake is a new volume record low.  Expecially on cryosat/smos since piomas isn't likely to properly model the destruction of the ice that it says is 3-4 meters thick. 

That ice has been getting hit quite hard and it's a only July 3rd.

It's very possible that parts of the CAB end up with reality low concentration towards the end of August.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 19, 2020, 05:10:38 AM »
With today's drop of -65,947 km2 (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP-JAXA ASI), I think it is save to say that the 2019/2020 freezing season is over.

Today's extent (March 18th) is  238,079 km2 under the max of 14,447,641 km2 that happened on March 3rd.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2020, 03:01:08 PM »
Juan C: which are the other years next to 2004? I.e the years at place 16-20.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 12, 2019, 11:12:49 PM »
If we are eyeballing DMIs graph over Arctic temperaturen, we should start to see some decent extent gains soon. As Friv has pointed out earlier in another thread we should be very grateful that the melting in ESS was so resistent. Otherwise, the situation would have been a lot worse.

Without saying that we won't see what you suggest, we should still keep in mind that the regions above 80N are mostly ice covered by now and the reminder of the AO is quite warm still.

I personally expect a general delay of about 2-3 weeks from pre-2010 averages.

EDIT: copied/corrected from the data thread because it belongs here ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 17, 2019, 01:36:26 PM »
It is interesting to note that there is a pattern to the very bad years of 2007, 2012, 2016, and 2019.

The first "bad" year was 2007. It took five years for 2012 to happen. It took four years for 2016 to happen. It took three years for 2019 to happen.

As far as I remember that's what "be cause" is posting in his signature on a daily base, at least interesting indeed

the art of the ( not so ) subliminal message ? . b.c.
I see more random behavior:
2002 was a bad year (September record versus previous years).
2005 was a bad year  (September record versus previous years).
2006 was worse than in 2005 in must parts of May-August, but not in September.
2007 was a bad year  (September record versus previous years).
2010 was a bad year.
2011 was a bad year (Bremen said that it broke 2007 daily minimum, but it happened at the beginning of September and the freezing season started early, so NSIDC September average doesn't show this low value).
2012 was the terrible year in summer  (All-time September record).
2015-2019 were bad years in winter & spring.
2016 was very bad on the extent and 2017 very bad on volume (2017 is all-time low-volume record on the PIOMAS year average), but not as bad as 2012 at the end of summer.

NSIDC sees 2007 as the second-lowest on extent. I think that this could continue to be the case, once that we have the NSIDC 2019 September average. But other agencies will not agree. ADS NIPR looks for the lowest daily value (not the lowest September average) and AMSR2 has more accuracy than NSIDC measurements. So 2012, 2016 and now 2019 will be the ADS NIPR three lowest years. The same will maybe apply to Bremen (or they may include 2011).   

--> Almost all the above comments are base on the extent because it is the measure that it is easy to follow on a daily basis, but volume tells another story. If you look on a decadal average and compare it to a 1979-2000 base, the Arctic lost almost 1/3 of volume in 2000-2009 and almost 2/3 in 2010-2019. 2007 low value is broken in several years.

More important: On PIOMAS September volume, 2019 is going to be almost as bad as 2012.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 07:32:03 PM »

Gets below 4 million km2? Stays above 4 million km2 ? Some of those who take their poll forecasts seriously will end up shrieking with joy, others will weep and think about taking themselves and their shotgun out to the barn.

Or lay happily around, because they have chosen the 3.75-4.25 M km² bin, which will 100% be the bin this year's minimum will stay in.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 21, 2019, 02:08:30 PM »
Melt momentum is currently average/ below the decadal-average
I think you mean "rate of extent decline" rather than "melting momentum" - the momentum could well be significant, while rate of decline is low. In that case, the rate of decline should pick up later.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 03:27:27 AM »
It's highly unlikely that we see the weather forecasts bomb on the pattern change.

There are many factors backing this happening.

I know that this news can be disappointing.  But this is how this works.

Even if there isn't a new record this year it will end up a top 3 melt season and volume loss could end up as a new record even if Extent isn't.

Area has no chance to be a new record.

I have been at this a long time and then disdain and snide remarks by people emotionally invested in a new record is pretty sad.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:59:25 AM »
Thickness map, comparisons with previous years and their diff's.

You certainly want to click these to read the very small fonts (and even then...).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:17:04 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data (not the 'official' volume data yet).

Volume on 30th June was 12.05 [1000 km3], lowest value for the day of the year.

Let's animate.

Sea ice thickness distribution and its anomaly for June 2019 (

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 11:01:10 PM »
The latest operational GFS rum is a really sobering one.

mind to share the recipe for "SOBERING RUM"

i like rum so much but then i couldn't get hold on that kind, hence consumption has to stay limited.

I'm in tears....   :D :D :D

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 10:18:01 PM »
The latest operational GFS rum is a really sobering one.

mind to share the recipe for "SOBERING RUM"

i like rum so much but then i couldn't get hold on that kind, hence consumption has to stay limited.

 [JK] [SARC]

 :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 06:37:27 PM »
How can Neven demand the thread stay on topic and simultaneously allow weatherdude88 to post... he is clearly a denier troll and is doing as much to discredit this thread and this forum. It is blatant and obvious.

I thought it was funny. If I don't find it funny, I'll take action.

What's also not funny, is you whining about it here. Take it up elsewhere.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 06:02:36 PM »
Slater model update for Aug 19th (keeps 2019 in strong 2nd place).

Projected extent: 4,87 m sq km

NSIDC extent on the same dates :

2012: 4,55
2007: 5,18
2016: 5,22
2017: 5,29

whoever wishes to see the map you can do  it here:

EDIT: considering that during strong melting momentum the model underestimated (eg 2016, 2012, 2007) extent, this year (given June's weather and the near term forecast) is likely to finish at least 2nd and still possibly 1st

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 02:57:45 PM »
Let's hope that PIOMAS comes out with mid-month update so we get a clue about the damage.

I agree with both Neven and Friv that 2012 will be extremely unlikely to beat this year. IMO, that's not the real important thing whether we beat 2012 or not. Remember that 2012 strongly diverged from earlier years by the beginning of August when the strength of the sun is quickly vaning in the high Arctic. And it quickly refroze that fall. It's more concerning that we are getting open seas in (April) May and June, especially over deep seas, that can suck up tons of energy from the sun and delay freezing by fall and winter. I don't want to guess what kind of weather we'll get after next strong El Nino. Then we'll be in serious trouble!

I agree.

It is fun to watch the horse race to the annual minimum but the degradation of the Arctic ice is a long process and I find it far more interesting to watch this happen. The Bering has been opening up earlier and earlier and the effect has been to warm the waters so much through added insolation that it did not really freeze this past winter. This process is occurring in the Chulkchi, Beaufort, ESS and Laptev as well. The longer these seas remain open water, the more heat uptake. The freeze will occur later and the ice will be thinner after the subsequent freeze. Winter max for volume is the measure to watch IMHO.

Look at these peripheral seas in the basin. All are at or near their all time minimums for the date. These seas are melting out earlier and earlier and warming dramatically as a result. Even the CAA is near its minimum for the date which is due to the increasingly early clear out of the Amundsen Gulf which is more an extension of the Beaufort than it is a part of the CAA. This rapid melt in the CAA will slow dramatically as the straits will not melt out as quickly.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 10:13:59 AM »
I'm in the 'unlikely', but not in the 'extremely unlikely' camp as of yet.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 04, 2018, 05:08:15 AM »
Whatever the final outcome will be, I'm fairly sure that we'll see an early September minimum this year.
Why? Early summer minima are due to cloudy weather (while the sun still shines). If there are open skies, there won't be an early freeze onset. So what is convincing you of the contrary?

Not sure what Lord Vader's reasoning may be, but I think we might be biased towards an early minimum because the core ice has been somewhat cooler and the fringe ice much warmer.  So late in the season the easy to melt ice will be gone and whats left will be stronger.  Still my personal opinion is that the weather near minimum would be more important.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 03, 2018, 08:26:35 AM »
EC operational 12z run is crazy! D5-D6 has an intensive cyclone at 966-967 hpa for more than 24 hours(!) If this model run verifies I would like to classfy this as a GAC. Is that OK with you, Neven? ;)

I'm the dictator of this Forum, but not of GAC definitions.  ;)

However, here's my opinion: It's D5-D6, but if it does go below 970 hPa, the storm may apply for GAC-status. But as I said, there are a couple of parameters. There was a good paper on GAC-2012 discussing these things, but I don't believe there's a fixed set of parameters. I'll see if I can find it again (I discussed it on the ASIB when the 'GAC'-2016 hit).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2018, 07:51:01 PM »
Daily NSIDC Extent reveals an UPTICK of +17K. How unusual is this during the months June-July when the melting is at its largest pace?
Finally an easy question about arctic sea ice...
According to NSIDC extent data, this happens about 2 times per month in June, and another 1.3 times in July, so nothing to worry about. The typical maximal upward tick is around 40k in June and 25k in July. Even 2012 saw 2 upticks during its spectacular June (but it also saw 13 century breaks).

Do you have a reason why the cooler conditions will prevail over the canadian side ?

If you draw a line from NW to SE Canada, roughly the Alaskan to Maine border, everything north and east of that line has been cooler this spring with extended snow cover.  In all likelihood, the coastal waters and ice pack are cooler also.  Unless summer brings about a bigger change than normal, these cooler conditions are likely to prevail.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 01, 2018, 06:21:21 AM »
I expect an unspectacular decline in May due to the lack of ice in the Bering with the extent being somewhere near the 2015 (10.8-11.0M) figure by May 31st.   

I think I nailed it! Only a 13K difference according to Jaxa.   May be the only time though.

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