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Messages - Lord M Vader

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 11:17:49 AM »
Back to topic! Latest GFS 00z op is almost a complete nightmare after D10 with HP covering thecwhole Arctic. Let's pray and hope it doesn't emanate which it in say 99 cases of 100 does not. If it would, I shall be more than willing to change my opinion about 2012 not being beated this year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 11:00:25 AM »
Parrys channel will most likely remain closed this year unless we see a pattern change soon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 09:58:02 AM »
Let's hope that PIOMAS comes out with mid-month update so we get a clue about the damage.

I agree with both Neven and Friv that 2012 will be extremely unlikely to beat this year. IMO, that's not the real important thing whether we beat 2012 or not. Remember that 2012 strongly diverged from earlier years by the beginning of August when the strength of the sun is quickly vaning in the high Arctic. And it quickly refroze that fall. It's more concerning that we are getting open seas in (April) May and June, especially over deep seas, that can suck up tons of energy from the sun and delay freezing by fall and winter. I don't want to guess what kind of weather we'll get after next strong El Nino. Then we'll be in serious trouble!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 09:58:28 PM »
Latest EC 12z op is good news for sea ice retention. If we are going to ser a pattern shift to low pressure dominated weather at the time of solstice melting momentum will slow down considerably. The EC 00z ensemble hade that solution.

If this comes true I think we can rule out a new record low. Melting momentum seems to be rather low at the inner part of CAB.

The biggest thing of concern this season should be the parts that will open up early, mainly Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS that can warm up a lot until refreezing.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 06:27:26 PM »
Well, yes Sterks. Unless it cracks down before that.. If so, it would be a big loss of MYI going down through Nares strait.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 06, 2019, 03:38:31 PM »
Friv, we might prepare ourselves for an onslaught of the sea ice....

The only thing that might stop that dipole set up to som degree is the small cyclone which is foreseen to swirl aroubd for a while.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 10:11:22 PM »
Correct Sterks, if that forecast, which largely is supporter by the ensemble emanates, it will go from bad to extremely bad.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 10:35:54 AM »
Wipneus ice thickness maps shows that the ice in the southern part of Hudson Bay is very thick. IMO, I would say by eyeballing the map that it is the thickest that have been seen there during the period 2007-2018. Not too unlikely that a fairly large part of Hudson Bay will be covered by ice there by the end of July.

Looking at the current forecast from EC, both operational and ensemble, depicts a potentially extremely bad weather pattern for the ice. If that set up lasts for a couple of weeks it will likely be a very dire situation for the ice by August.

Update: Haah Oren, your timing was perfect! Only a second or so before me in posting.🙂

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 03, 2019, 12:34:51 PM »
In the coming months, I think it should be fair to compare 2019 with 2007 and 2012 depending on how the weather pattern evolves. Speaking in temps, 2007 put the standard for warmest summer and what we should compare with.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 01, 2019, 02:40:30 PM »
Thanks Neven! Will be extremely interesting to see the PIOMAS numbers next week and compare to 2007 and 2010-2012. How did June 2012 evolve wrt high pressure, dipoles and Fram export?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 01, 2019, 12:37:10 PM »
Hello dipole!?

Latest EC 00z ensemble run depicts a dire situation with a potential dipole building up in the foreseeble future. A short term dipole is managable, but what if we are going to see a dipole lastning for a week or weeks? That would be a very serious blow to the sea ice and almost a certain guarantee for a new records low.

Another question, is it just me or was the melt ponds more pronounced in the Arctic at this time back in 2012?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 25, 2019, 01:24:55 PM »
While the current forecast indeed looks really bad with a high amount of sunshine and temps climbing above zero, there might be a chance that we get a high pressure similar to what happened back in 2014. If so, the damage should be reduced.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 04, 2018, 08:49:31 AM »
Whatever the final outcome will be, I'm fairly sure that we'll see an early September minimum this year.
Why? Early summer minima are due to cloudy weather (while the sun still shines). If there are open skies, there won't be an early freeze onset. So what is convincing you of the contrary?

Not sure what Lord Vader's reasoning may be, but I think we might be biased towards an early minimum because the core ice has been somewhat cooler and the fringe ice much warmer.  So late in the season the easy to melt ice will be gone and whats left will be stronger.  Still my personal opinion is that the weather near minimum would be more important.

Your are entirely correct Michael when you say that the easy ice should be gone by September whereas the thicker ice will remain solid. :) Another factor is that if this weather pattern continues into September it's more likely that we'll see an early minimum.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 03, 2018, 11:47:51 PM »
Whatever the final outcome will be, I'm fairly sure that we'll see an early September minimum this year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 03, 2018, 01:46:55 PM »
Another century break from NSIDC. Now down to 9,631 Mn km2. The trailing 5 day-average is now 9,868 Mn km2. Still about 500K above 2012 and 700K above 2010 which was lowest for the date. Still 8th lowest but by tomorrow we'll likely be 9th lowest as 2007 should take over our 8th place. And remark, we can't rule out that 2013 will put us down to 10th lowest place(!)

Arctic is surely a strange place!!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 02, 2018, 08:37:36 PM »
EC operational 12z run is crazy! D5-D6 has an intensive cyclone at 966-967 hpa for more than 24 hours(!) If this model run verifies I would like to classfy this as a GAC. Is that OK with you, Neven? ;)
Adding to that a very strong reversed dipole that should put the thickest ice closer to the Pacific death zone while thinner ice close to Svalbard will be pushed closer to the North Pole. See apersons post #1855 that shows HYCOMs estimation of the sea ice thickness for the years 2014-2018

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 08:35:49 PM »
EC 12z op forecast has the first low to 975 hpa and the other cyclone down to 971 hpa. Yes, this is going to be a wild week ahead!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 30, 2018, 08:45:32 PM »
EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG CYCLONE possible over the high Arctic!!!

The ECMWF 12z operational run has a 972 hpa AND a 974 hpa intensive cyclone at D3 and D7 (see attached pics!). A sub-975 hpa cyclone in July should be a very rare occurrence. Having two of them in less than a week must be unprecedented! Does anyone know about cyclones lower than this in July?

The second intensive cyclone will most likely bring very cold air over Beaufort Sea & Chukchi Sea.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 09:09:31 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 26, 2018, 08:48:13 PM »
I would like to say that the period 2005-2012 that many of you are discussing is lacking one component that I see as vital! During 2007, 2010 and 2011 we had La Niña conditions during June-July-August as defined by the ONI-numbers in the Niño 3.4-area.

For 2005, the ONI-number during these months was cool neutral which also was true for 2008.

For 2012, the ONI was warm neutral but OTOH, we had just come out from a very long La Niña.

2006 and 2009 were quite slow melting years but both years saw an El Niño.

After 2012, the flip in PDO started and 2013 was as we all know a really slow melting year despite cool neutral ONI-numbers.

2014 and 2017 both had warm neutral conditions. 2015 we had strong El Niño conditions impinging upon us. In 2016 the ONI was cool neutral moving to a weak La Niña but OTOH, the atmosphere was superheated.

All in all, the next major melting season will come when either 1) a strong and maybe a prolonged La Niña emerge or 2) when the PDO switches back to its negative phase!

If this would be true we might get a "better" melting season in 2019, 2020 or 2021. It will depend upon if we get an El Niño this year and how strong it might be. A plausible scenario is a prolonged El Niño for 2018 to the beginning of 2020 which more or less certainly would take us to a bigger La Niña in 2020.

PDO should not switch back to the negative phase until around 2030 unless this isn't a repeat of the positive PDO-regime that was seen during the late 1950's.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 26, 2018, 08:51:27 AM »
The aforemented high pressure is not going to give any significant WAA into the Arctic basin. Sunshine and some melt ponds, yes, but the real melting momentum will be lacking. And most of the weather models indicates that this high pressure won't be more persistent but a return to more clody and cyclonic weather should likely be seen in about a week or so.

This melting season should likely pan out like 2013-2014 and perhaps like 1996 wrt the degree of melting.  And no, it won't be top-5, not even close. I agree with both Neven and Friv at that point. That would be interesting for the upcoming refreeze season. Very warm waters surrounding the Arctic but with a inner core of ice that wil be able to get some "recovery".

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 25, 2018, 05:57:47 PM »
I think HYCOM is overestimating the melting rate. There is no way that Kara Sea will more or less melt out in a week!

I'm pretty sure that we'll dodge another bullet this year. Personally, I don't think we'll see a big melting year until we either go into a strong La Niña or when the PDO switch back to its negative phase.

As you might have seen, the landfast ice in Chukchi Sea have finally detached into floes. Winds and currents should have more impact from now and onward.

GFS 06z operational run is absolutely hilarious in Fantasyland! At +384h there is a 965 hpa bomb cyclone over the CAB. While that is just a pure fantasy it would had been interesting to see how such an intensive cyclone in July would impact the Arctic. Any ideas?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 24, 2018, 08:50:05 PM »
Latest Euro 12z op run has a 975-980 hpa bomb cyclone in 8-9 days. What's the lowest July sea level pressure that we know about?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 21, 2018, 04:01:23 PM »
While the sea ice is melting in the Arctic basin it is still winter conditions and about 1 meter of snow on the ground in the far eastern Canada(!)

About the melting season, there might be some changes during the next few weeks or so.

1) The GFS ensemble forecast for the next 4 weeks depicts more high pressure dominated weather over Beaufort and CAB.

2) According to Dr. Mike Ventrice,  as the standing La Niña wave has waned and a shift in the tropics is occurring, it will play a "a major role in changing weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere later this Summer through Fall into Winter."

If such shift is going to emerge, we may very well see a repeat of July 2015. I still don't see a new record low as likely due to the lack of melting momentum in May-June, especially in the high Arctic above 80N.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 19, 2018, 08:58:42 AM »
Seems like the latest EC operational run wants a weak high pressure to build up over Beaufort in a week or so. Let's see if that trend will hold in upcoming runs!

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 19, 2018, 08:13:08 AM »
NASA Giss for May is in at +0,82oC. This makes May 2018 to the fourth warmest May behind 2016,2017 and 2014.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 18, 2018, 08:44:58 AM »
Jdallen & Friv: I agree with both of you.

First, I think Friv is right and I also wrote it in an earlier post. The Siberian side will be gone this year whereas the North American side will be spared to a very high degree. This years minimum should come close to 2013-2015.

Second, what Jdallen is saying is something I posted about 1½ year ago. After next bigger El Niño we should probably get close to a point where it doesn't matter whether HP or LP will be in charge. If a LP dominated season is emerging by then, the precip will likely fall as rain. Remember 2016 which went so low despite endlessly bomb cyclones moving in over the Arctic? I think one reason for that was the superheated atmosphere that allowed the ice to melt out much more than it should have if there hadn't been such a strong El Niño.
When this is happening, probably in less than 10 years, it should be followed by a stronger La Niña that might emerge during the summer months. La Niñas are, if my memory is correct, yielding a higher chance for GBH to develop. Remember 2010-2012?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 16, 2018, 09:06:09 PM »
bbr: great pics, but is it possible for you to include the color scale in the figure that shows the sea ice thickness too? :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 15, 2018, 07:21:50 PM »
Houston, we might see some serious problem ahead! The GFS 12z operational run depicts a pattern shift starting by D7 to low pressure over Siberia and a high pressure dome over the rest of the Arctic basin.

Let's see if this is a true shift or just bogus.... And also what is the chief model from EC going to say?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: June 15, 2018, 07:16:16 PM »
How did the June melt pond fraction look like back in 2007-2008, 2010-2012 and 2016?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 15, 2018, 08:05:54 AM »
Subgeo: of more interest is that the crack from Laptev is now more or less reaching ESS. If this trend continues, it should not be impossible to see a detaching of the ice pack during the next two months.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 09:13:12 PM »
The latest operational run from ECMWF hints, IMO a potentially disturbing pattern change emerging after the solstice. If the trend continues in the upcoming runs and if it would hold on for a while into July we may see a potentially huge damage to the sea ice later in the season. While it at this moment is speculative, a pattern change with more high pressure dominated weather can surely make up for the lack of melting momentum over the North American side. Remember that the sea ice there is thinner than normal.

For now, the model run for the next 8 days seems to be good or very good for ice retention over the North American side.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2018, 05:09:41 PM »
Daily NSIDC Extent reveals an UPTICK of +17K. How unusual is this during the months June-July when the melting is at its largest pace?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 06:47:53 PM »
As we are getting closer to the solstice it seems, at this moment, more and more likely that the the sea ice in ESS, Chukchi, Laptev, Barents and Kara Sea will take a major damage this season. OTOH, it looks like the sea ice in Beaufort, CAA and the adjacent areas north of Greenland will be spared this season.

This idea is based upon the GFS monthly forecast that hints of a more cyclonic weather pattern over the North American side while high pressure will remain in charge over the Siberian side.

Another factor is that the Arctic Oscillation has been mostly in its positive phase since 2013. In fact, the AO index hasn't been below -1 since fall 2015 (you can see the time series from 1950 to present day at ). Sooner or later we'll see more -AO dominate the weather in Arctic but right now I don't see such a switch to come.
Of course, a swing to -AO in July with a high pressure over the North American side would make potentially catastrophic damage to the sea ice as the ice thickness in this area is thinner than normal. Most of us remember the big high pressure in July 2015 that compensated for the lack of melting momentum by June.


Originally, I voted 4,5-5,0 Mn km2, but the last weeks weather over the Laptev basin had me to lower my minimum guess to 4,25-4,75 Mn km2.

However, I don't see a new record low as likely given that we still haven't crossed the melting point over the high Arctic. Another reason is that the odds seems to be low for a developing GBH in the next month or so. My idea is that the most likely outcome is a warm Siberian side while cooler conditions will prevail over the Canadian side, thus preventing a new record low.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 04, 2018, 09:34:43 PM »
The latest operational EC 12z forecast is completely brutal for the sea ice! Expect an onslaught in Kara-Barents Sea followed by high pressure centered in the CAB and Beaufort! The only thing that would be worse is a dipole setting up over the Arctic. No such is in sight at this moment.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2018, 08:55:20 AM »
Sorry Juan CG, but we it should be second lowest for June 3......

Thank you for posting and updating us about the SIE in Arctic :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 29, 2018, 08:50:23 AM »
The latest forecast from the Euro hints of a 969 hpa intensive cyclone over Kara Sea by D7. The winds should be of hurricane strength and tear the sea ice apart and flush it out to the Atlantic death zone.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: May 25, 2018, 07:51:03 PM »
To clarify, both Gonu (2007) and Phet (2010) made landfall in Oman at Category 3 strength but they hit in the eastern part of the country..

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 25, 2018, 09:12:46 AM »
As we now are approaching June it's highly interesting to see if the current high pressure dome is going to remain in place over the Beaufort Sea and adjacent areas. Latest ECMWF 00z op run suggests that the HP will be in charge over the next 10 days. That should continue to bring warm and sunny weather conditions that should give an upshoot to melting momentum. And if that HP stays over Arctic for another 2-3 weeks it should render some serious damage to the sea ice at the Pacific side.

The only thing that would be worse than the current forecast is if we would see a Greenland Blocking High emerge in June. That would be a disaster!

At this moment we should be very grateful that this is 2018 and not 2013 or 2017!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 24, 2018, 09:06:04 AM »
Seems like the ESS has started to melt. How unusual is that at this time of year compared to other years?

In the southern part of Chukchi and northern Berings Sea the SSTs are already at a full degree above zero. Imagine how warm those areas might be when refreezing season starts?  :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2018, 06:14:10 PM »
NSIDC reports a big fat Century Break. Down 110K to 12,088 Mn km2.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 16, 2018, 07:34:15 PM »
While the absolute anomaly was lower for April it was the third warmest April on record. March on the other hand was the sixth warmest on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 15, 2018, 04:15:57 PM »
Wrt to Slaters model which foresees an SIE of 9,18 Mn km2 by July 4. It's worth to remember that the SIE for July 4 last year was 9,174 Mn km2.... A number of 9,18 is just a fourth place.

The main question is whether the high pressure is able to remain in the CAB and adjacent areas through June. The GFS weekly forecasts hints of a high pressure dominated weather over the Siberian side by the end of May and beginning of June. That would be a rather interesting set up as the ice this year is considerably thicker on the Siberian side while thinner at the North American side and close to the pole.
The forecast for week 4 (June 5-11) is very far away but GFS have been rather consistent for the last few days and believes in a continuation of HP over the Siberian side.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 23, 2018, 06:21:34 PM »
Guys, you are forgetting that all that extra snow onto the ice in Hudson Bay will be transformed into water and exert pressure onto the ice which should melt even faster if the weather conditions are the right. While thick snow should be beneficial for the ice in the CAB the same might not be true for the peripheral ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 23, 2018, 06:15:57 PM »
FOW, oh yes, it IS memorable and spectacular with the exceptionally low sea ice concentration in Bering Sea. As the waters there are open now, the ocean is now able to store all heat from the sun. And I assure you that the sun is rather strong this time at year. In fact, the sun is now above the horizon for about 15 hours per day in this area.

Instead of being reflected, the sunlight has already started to warm the ocean there. According to the SSTs in this area is now -0,8o to -1,4o. I think we can imagine that it should be a lot harder for the sea ice to form in this area later this year, or perhaps even in January if we are going to see a repeat of stormy weather there.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 16, 2018, 07:06:00 PM »
NASA GISS just reported that March 2018 was the sixth warmest on record with an anomaly at +0,89oC. However, the margin to the third warmest March from 2010 was small, just 0,03oC. To the seventh warmest March, occurred in 1990, the margin was quite large, 0,12oC.

If no El Niño shows up later this year, I think it's fairly safe to assume that 2018 will be the fourth warmest year behind 2015-2017.


Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: April 13, 2018, 10:17:59 PM »
After 50 consecutive months with positive PDO values,  the string was broken during March! With a PDO value at -0.05 the four year long sequence came to an end. Let's see how the PDO evolves the next few months!

Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: April 13, 2018, 08:17:56 AM »
From the graphs Sleepy presents, I get the impression that if an El Niño is going to emerge later this year it might be a "Modoki El Niño".

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 11, 2018, 08:36:28 AM »
Interesting to see whether that thick ice northeast of Severnaya Zemlya is going to reach the "Death Zone" this season or if it's going to stay in the Arctic basin.

We shall see!

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