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Messages - Lord M Vader

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1251
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 31, 2014, 10:16:18 PM »
Latest ECMWF 12z was not too bad.. Btw, Longyearbyen have had temps above freeze point continuously for the last 4-7 days and is forecasted to have temps above 0C the next 10 days.. This should mean bad news and quick melt for the ice in this region next week... Statistic for Svalbard is available here: http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistikk.html

1252
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 31, 2014, 04:05:51 PM »
Just a few words here: as many of you might have noticed, hurricane Amanda almost reached cat 5, but remained just shy of cat 5. About 80-90% of all cat 5 hurricanes in EPAC have developed during El Niño years. I think the only exceptions from this "rule" are Celia (june 2010) and Ava (june 1973).. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Pacific_hurricanes due to the fact that amanda was so close to cat 5 so early I believe this further strengthens the presumed El Niño of 2014-2015...

speaking about EPAC, a new invest area have been given 70% chance by NHC to develop during the next 5 days.. If so, it will be named "Boris"...

1253
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 31, 2014, 02:57:05 PM »
GFS 06z run looks really nice with a building HP 1020-1030 covering almost the whole Arctic basin.. :D Will probably mean a lot of sunshine if this forecast materializes and melt ponds... What I've been looking at for the last week is why the ice in ESS have remained at 100% concentration at Bremens ice chart.. If this forecast comes true I think we should see a quick deterioration of this ice concentration in ESS..

If it wouldn't have been for last years cold summer I would have been quite sure that this years ice minimum would have smashed 2012... I still believe we will end up somewhere in the range 3,9-4,5 million km2..

1254
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 25, 2014, 10:15:03 AM »
The ice in ESS and Laptev are quickly weakening now. Soon we'll have a huge opening there. What it'll mean for the rest of the melt melt season I've no idea about but it'll ceertainly be very interesting to see.. This will allow the SSTs to spike quickly then... Not to forget that the opening will have about 4 months to warm up.
 
f one look closely at the ESS at Hamburg pics one can see that the coast line in ESS is on track to connect with the Beaufort Sea in a while. Will the ice in ESS and Laptev be gone by May 31? THAT would be exciting!! I think that JAXAs numbers for SIE is too high given what's going on in ESS, Laptev and between Svalbard and Franz Josefs land..

1255
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 22, 2014, 10:44:05 PM »
Friv: no kidding! :P Yes, they are and ECMWF is usually more reliable than GFS. However, high pressure systems will still give plenty of sun so we'll possibly see some melt but the CAA will likely be well protected and I'm rather confident that if there are no dramatic swings in the weather the Northwest passage will be closed this year too.. The AO will remain fairly neutral for the next 10 days or so and that's what I think will be significant for this melt season: mainly neutral conditions which will give us somewhat more conducive conditions for melting than 2013 but still not as favorable as we saw in 2007 and 2012...

1256
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 22, 2014, 07:16:09 PM »
Just looked at the latest GFS 12z run which is very interesting!! This run favors more melting than the other ones have done earlier.. Will be very exciting to look at the EURO in two hours.. Just like the whole situation is right now it's exciting!!

ACFNS forecast looks very weird with a thickening of the ice in the quadrant north of Taimyr(!) Would be very surprised if that forecast holds the next days.. I'm expecting more melt and opening of the ESS and Laptev now.. Will be interesting to see if the heat succeeds to make a opening the whole way from Laptev to Berings strait before june 1... I expect the area in Laptev as Werther discussed to open up before june 1. The ice in the area of Svalbard is crap and my opinion is that the SIE from JAXA is somewhat overestimated due to those circumstances. Anyone who agrees with that or?

1257
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 22, 2014, 07:20:49 AM »
Interestingly, the latest GFS is building a second heat dome in Laptev Sea in about 5-6 days with the HP from the Pacific side.. Let's see how the models perform this run later!!

1258
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 21, 2014, 07:42:23 PM »
With respect to the uncertainity of PMEL/TAO it is however interesting to see that a new but small WWB may be under way in WPAC between 140-160E. A very tiny area at the date line indicates positive wind anomalies.

Whether this presentation from PMEL/TAO is temporary or not is an enigma that the future will give us the answer to.. Due to the recent updates from NOAA and BoM it seems almost necessary with a fourth WWB to sparkle a full fledged El Niño later this year...

The MJO seems extremely reluctant to move to the WPAC according to the pics ASLR have posted earlier.. But a some point this must change and the odds for a TC that might give some extra help to westerly winds are quickly rising. Since 1996 there have been at least one TC forming in may except for the years 1998-1999, 2010 and 2013. Given that the WPAC seems to be "bone dry" right now, the MJO being much further west and that none of the forecast models predicting a TC for the next 10 days I lean to believe that we'll have no TCs this may. In 1998 and 2010 there were also no TC forming in june either. 1999  and 2013 saw one respectively four TCs forming in june those years.

By the way, there are no significant signs for TC formation in the EPAC either though that there is an area that NHC gives 10% to develop during the next 48 hours.

Werthers (or perhaps Deep Octopus) post that it would be hard to see the presumed El Niño event dimnishing away should be followed by a more relevant question: have there ever been a bust of El Niño when the SSTs have warmed at this level this time at year? We saw it happen in 2012 but then we were in mid summer that time..

//LMV

1259
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 19, 2014, 10:00:44 PM »
ASLR, is it my bad eyesight or are there possibly a hint of a new potential WWB in WPAC according to TAO/PMEL? I know that TAO/PMEL values in almost realtime have a higher degree of uncertainity due to that the values are calculated from five day means... But, still a possibly hint of another WWB that could be the final kick for a full fledged El Niño... We've to wait and see... Interesting though! :D

1260
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 19, 2014, 07:45:17 PM »
Hello dear friends!

The discussion about ESS in earlier years made me do what jdallen already did: to look at earlier years and compare. While there were no signs of a break up this early at year there were signs of an area with low sea ice concentrations in the ESS by the end of may 2006. We should remember that the resolution of Cryosphere Today (CT) seems to be lower than Arctische Pinguins (AP) eminent pics with 3.125 km resolution. By May 17 from CT doesn't manage to show this compared to both Bremen and AP. That's why I lean to say that it's possible that the ESS may have seen an early break up in the end of may 2006. However, this years event is much more remarkable though!

Another thing that is worth to keep an eye at is the Kara Sea where the ice is very thin and there is a break up. Given that really warm air is coming from south and will continue to dig into this area with offshore winds according to GFS latest 12z run for the next week or so I don't see why Laptev Sea wouldn't experience a really large ice free area by the end of this month.. Given the resolution I think that we'll see an over estimation by the SIE of Jaxa due to this event.. ECMWF 12z run will be highly interesting to see the outcome!!

DMI show a fairly steady increase in the Arctic temps north of 80N which certainly should continue and switch to positive numbers soon. There have been discussions of how bad this season will be. I think we may get a hint from the AO. The AO have mostly been positive this year even though it will be more normal now the next days. I think we'll continue to get a summer dominated by neutral AO index. The outcome combined with the fact that the ice is somewhat thicker this year in parts of Arctic implies that this season won't end up being as bad as 2012 was. I'm still confident in my guess that this years SIE will end up somewhere in the range of 3,9-4,5 million km2...:)

1261
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 17, 2014, 10:47:20 PM »
Neven: to make sure that we are looking at the same thing I post this partial picture by Artische Pinguins daily maps and the pinhole I'm referring to is the tiny one in the badly painted black ring that I made...

1262
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 17, 2014, 06:40:04 PM »
Is it just me or is it a pinhole break in the ice at the border between Beaufort Sea and CAB in the map today May 17 by Arctische Pinguin at https://0c35ba35-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/Arc_20140516_res3.125_pyres.nc.gz.png?attachauth=ANoY7crtxtNljRjLZLzhbnPiRUKPqBOqWTUMDFrmwofns63l0QVNDGYehTnwdQo9oGJTaxgO5_6sBmL_JyMcQR7rNGByxhdbhfZvgn_F9-I2KBHz_0Z9fWv3NjBwHYum-h-E7BF8NBlNWTg9MPYkvqjHT-0UDHo4YJTvxkOw7bd7J7KSAdWCtDUbJa5zMGCbyaL8DdUuqREN2dvuxOX3OunbO5jfeGpPwnq4-VcxiwUgUo_EuiXd8HHpQ-BpbZnoHoT7dI6oVl7k&attredirects=0 ? Do you see it? Is it reasonable to believe that we could get a minor polynya in this area this early in the melt season? Have such thing ever happened before?

Anyway, Pevek in ESS close to Wrangels Island may get 0-5C next week and a reasonable amount of sunlight.. Should do a good blow to the ice there!

Tomorrow, May 18 the SIE will highly likely go below 12 million km2 which is 5 days later than the record earliest date for that limit.

1263
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 17, 2014, 12:53:29 PM »
Have anyone of you looked at the latest ACFNS forecast? Even if there is a degree of uncertainity in the model, just look and compare the pics in ice thickness between May 16 18z and May 24 00z.. My mouth was going through the floor due to the predicted weakness in the ice thickness which goes virtually the whole way to the North Pole...

Your thoughts about this?

1264
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 16, 2014, 10:25:38 PM »
Siffy, I'm well aware about the fact that forecasts a week ahead have a high degree of uncertainity... Still, IF the heat dome would make its way through ESS, Chukchi and Berings sea it would be remarkable interestingly! And despite the fact that it's a week from now we can always speculate..

1265
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 16, 2014, 09:46:57 PM »
Interestingly, the ECMWF 12z run today friday is somewhat disturbing.. The heat dome which have been predicted is no longer appearing but instead blocked by a cyclone.. Let's see how the coming forecasts show up!!:)

1266
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 16, 2014, 07:44:18 PM »
Latest GFS shows an amazingly big heat dome to reach ESS, Chukchi and Berings Sea next week!! A minor heat dome will reach ESS this weekend but the real blow arrives next week. The powerful cyclone should do a good job to the ice in these areas followed by temperatures over zero. It's possible that the temps in ESS may be over zero day around as the sun will be there 24/7 soon... We may see something really unexpected then!! As there is a huge polynya in ESS and off shore winds is expected next week I won't be surprised if there will be a polynya that creates a "corridor" in the ESS and Chukchi the whole way from Berings sea to Severnaya Zemlya area... What do you think about this? :)

Todays numbers from JAXA only showed a small decrease in SIE. The ice around Frans Josef and Svalbard should deteriorate quickly next week.. Don't be surprised if we are close to 11 million km2 by May 31 or June 1...

Interestingly, DMI shows temps way below normal right now.. Given the heat domes arrival next week those negative anomalies should switch to positive numbers but we'll see what the future brings!!

What are your thoughts about next weeks expected heat dome arrival?:)

1267
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 16, 2014, 07:25:24 PM »
ASLR, it may be the case that we'll see an increase in the OHC.. Monday and tuesday will be interesting days as both NOAA and BoM will make updates about El Niño status What I'm thinking about right now is if the TAO negative wind anomalies may fizzle the presumed El Niño.. There is absolutely no TC forecasted by neither GFS or ECMWF in WPAC for the next 10 days. However, the atmosphere should also start to weaken the Walker cell soon given that the equator is warmer than its envirinments now...

1268
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 13, 2014, 07:34:36 PM »
The DMI is for only the second time this year showing temperatures somewhat below normal around 80-90N . Interestingly, this time is virtually exactly the same time at year as the weather made a major swung last year bringing persistently cold weather during the rest of the melting season... The big question is whether this pattern will repeat this year. The GFS latest run  (12z) forecast a pattern dominated by low pressures the next 5 days. In the end of the period, about 6 days ahead there are some hints of a stabilizing weather pattern...

In the short term the area that will get the biggest blow is the Berings sea and Chukchi sea..

In the real long term, around 228-288 hours there is a possibility of a heat dome to be pushed the whole way to Svalbard given that a major high pressure area would be established in the northern part of Europe.. Such long range forecasts always need to be taken very carefully.. But it's interesting to speculate  ;D

Finally, the archipelago of Hudson Bay seems to may be start to melt quickly next week if the forecast for about 10C stands..

That's all folks! ;)

1269
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 12, 2014, 07:38:22 PM »
Seems like really warm weather will blow over Chukchi and East siberian Sea sea in about 5 days.. Think we'll see a quick melt soon... Tomorrow, 13/5 marks the eariest day as the SIE according to JAXA have been below 12 million km2.. We''l probably not be able to do that this year. Next day to keep an eye at is 3/6 which is the earliest date the SIE have been below 11 million km2.. With warm weather during the second half of may it might be possible to make it...

//LMV

1270
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 10, 2014, 04:59:37 PM »
Barrow have climbed above the freeze point and will remain close to it the next days until the end of next week. There is also the possibilty for rain there and some wind which is bad for the ice.

While I won't focus on a new record season I primarily believe this year will make a good set up for the next years melt seasons. What I want to focus on right now is Berings sea and Chukchi sea. Both areas have been under the influence of a persistent high pressure that have brought warm and moist southerlies north. All that warm and salty water that have been pushed north should at some point take its toll on the ice there as ice with higher salinity is much more valnurable to melting.

Maybe someone have data for earlier years and may tell whether the sea ice extent in those areas are at record low to this date or not? 2006 and 2007 were obviously really bad years for Chukchi sea when I look at the years from Cryosphere today...

The other thing worth to look at is the Atlantic side northeast of Svalbard where the salinity is really high. Once the melting is kicking off we will probably see a really quick melt away there. This may be coming soon as the ice there is so thin...

The ECMWF forecast is rather interesting as it indicates some switch to a more favorable state for melting the ice. However, forecasts at 8-10 days forward are to be taken carefully. However, the ECMWF have been consistent with this forecast during the last 3 of 4 runs. In short, the forecast calls for a major high pressure to build in over the Siberian coast while a low pressure will have its place at the North American side. That will perhaps mean a lot of sun to the Russian side where the ice is thinnest and probably some polynyas forming. Central Siberia may also see really warm weather coming then which surely will have a blow on the snow cover... An interesting feature is that the Greenland High Pressure may be of such strength that it might bend a low pressure area somewhat west in the end of next week, just like with Sandy in 2012 but with the big difference that the low will cease to exist..

Finally, I bring a map showing what we might end up with if we are going to see good melting pattern through this season. Source of the head image map: ACFNS. My guess is the black line where I have looked at the current modelled ice thickness... And as some people may note, yes the North Pole is ice free in my guess... What are your guesses if you would make such a map? How would your lines be drawn?

Finally, my current guess is that we'll end up with a SIE somewhere in the range of 3,9-4,5 million km2 due to NSIDC numbers. After the presumed El Niño I would believe that either 2015 or 2017 will smash the record from 2012...

1271
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: May 09, 2014, 11:07:32 PM »
Neven: no problems :)

1272
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northeast Passage thread
« on: May 09, 2014, 10:15:18 PM »
Well, I'm not surprised if that was the case as the sea ice maps only cover ice concentrations above 15%... But "ice free" according to SIC - maps...

//LMV

1273
Arctic sea ice / Northern Sea Route thread
« on: May 09, 2014, 09:05:19 PM »
Well, as Pmt started the Northwest Passage I thought that we would need a thread about the Northeast Passage... Last year the passage was open for some weeks as the ice around Severnaya Zemlya finally broke up in august.. So, what can we expect this year? Personally, I think that the Northeast Passage (hereafter "NEP") will continue to be ice free for about 9 of 10 years. The reasons for that are following:

1) the ice in the NEP is much thinner and therefore much more likely to melt out during the melt season.

2) despite such unfavorable conditions for melting ice as 2013 offered the NEP managed to become ice free even if it only was for a limited time. In fact, most of the thickest ice surrounding the NEP is today just west and north of Severnaya Zemlya.

I'm going to say some words about the NWP too. I think it will be highly unlikely that we'll see an ice free NWP this year. The western part of the Northern Route is blocked by, according to ACFNS, almost 5 m thick ice and the "Amundsen path" will probably open up almost everywhere except for the area in the middle of the Northern Route. Given that the weather pattern have been quite persistent now for a while which likely will continue for some time forward there will probably not be too much warming there as would be necessary to melt out all that thick ice in the Northern Route to make the NWP ice free...

Someone may argue if it would be better to put the NWP-thread and the new NEP-thread together. If you think that would be to prefer I won't oppose it.

1274
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 06, 2014, 08:46:43 PM »
What's the forecast for MJO? And where do I find the daily values from Longpaddock station?

Also, no TC formation seems likely for the next 10 days in WPAC.. However, there is an investment area in EPAC which NOAA give a 30% chance to develop during the next 48 hours.. It would be extraordinary early if we would see a tropical cyclone to develop in the EPAC where the hurricane season runs from May 15 to november 30. The earliest date a TC have formed in the "real" EPAC is May 12 in 1990 when Alma formed. Alma is also the earliest TC forming in the Easp Pacific proper according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Alma

One interesting question however appears: what impact would a small TC in the EPAC around 10-15N have? Given that TC's in EPAC use to have a small geometric size the impact may not be too big..

Of course, hurricane Ekeka in winter 1992 must be seen as an exceptionally outlier and also formed in the Central Pacific... 1992 was also a year with El Niño...

In addition, there is also a medium chance that a shortlived TC might form right west of Sri Lanka in the Northern Indian Ocean...

1275
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 28, 2014, 07:12:33 AM »
ASLR, TS Tapah have been rapidly intensifying during the few hours since last update and is now predicted to reach typhoon status with maxwinds at 75 knots by tomorrow before the atmospheric conditions will limit intensification... It's  now forecasted to remain at TS status until may 2.. Very interesting to see if it has any impact at all!

//LMV

1276
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 27, 2014, 05:28:25 PM »
Joint Typhoon Warning Center have now declared TD6 to develop into a short-lived tropical storm by tomorrow.. TAO data looks like our third WWB is almost gone :( Does anyone have similar data from the WWB events during earlier El Niños and then especially 1997?

1277
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 27, 2014, 05:18:14 PM »
Well, Barrow will actually experience 0-4 deg Celsius above zero during wednesday-sunday before somewhat colder air is returning temps below zero which certainly won't help the ice there... It will be interesting to see how much sunlight Barrow will get these days... All according to latest forecast..

Just as a interesting note the SIE is almost at the same numbers as last spring.. The next date to keep an eye on is may 15 which is the earliest day the SIE have dropped below 12 million km2..

1278
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 25, 2014, 09:32:24 PM »
The feeling is that the atmosphere is working 200% to prevent a massiver El Niño event... It should be plausible that the 7 deg anomaly isn't fading but just at a different depth... After all, the wind anomalies according to PMEL/TAO have been positive for a while and finally, at last, they seem to be positive west of 125W.. The area between 165W-135W with positive wind anomalies is also showing no signs to abate which should be no disadvantage.. The fact is that they haven't been that positive the last 2 years..

Neither ECMWF or GFS are showing any real signs of TC activity the next 7-10 days :( I don't give the disturbance near 7,9N any nice odds for development, just 5-10%.. The odds are however increasing for every week now that we'll see a TC developing in WPAC...

The TAO data averaged five days are showing some discernible hints that the OHC is slowly increasing again, both around date line and 110W.. Look at: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh

Cheers, LMV :)

Some questions are interesting: what are the forecasts for MJO and CCKW?

1279
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 22, 2014, 10:19:04 PM »
I found following interesting article http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract where they find a connection between the anomalous ridging in N. America and the many outbreaks of frigid air from Arctic this winter. equal interesting is that this weather pattern in the past have tended to be a precursor to a full fledged El Niño...

I'm also waiting for the new WWB to fuel more heat to the East! Interestingly, an eyelook at TAO/Triton seems to me that this new WWB is farther east compared with the ones in january and february... It may be so that a another WWB is underway in the Central/East Pacific around 145W..

And it's also worth to notify that the small area where there still are no westerlies around the date line is shrinking...

Sadly, there are no indications of a TC to develop in the WPAC.. :( However, there is a small possibility of a TC development southwest of Papua New Guinea at 8-9 deg south of equator. Regardless of development that disturbance may add a small contribution to the recent WWB..

My gut feeling (not very scientific(!)) is that the system is working overtime to prevent an El Niño to form and unleash a big surprise to our world... When that happens I will not be surprised if we are going to see a rapid increase in the global average temperature during the next decade or so...

//LMV

1280
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 16, 2014, 10:32:50 PM »
Hello everybody!

It's dark outside and I haven't got any egg yet but I do have some interesting views to share with you! After having studied the latest http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh my opinion is that a WWB is gathering strength in the area 170W-160W and that the area just around and right east of the date line with negative anomalies finally may be replaced by more westerly winds.. This should be in accordance with MJO...

When it comes to the possibility of tropical cyclones the odds seems to have gone down somewhat. GFS are still indicating a possible TD or weak TS but that's not as apparent as in earlier runs...

Happy Easter people! :D

//LMV 8)

1281
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 15, 2014, 06:44:23 PM »
The following list are the earliest dates when SIE due to JAXA have been less than:

13 mn km2: April 24
12 mn km2: May 13
11 mn km2: June 3
10 mn km2: June 17
 9 mn km2: July 1
 8 mn km2: July 10
 7 mn km2: July 19
 6 mn km2: August 3
 5 mn km2: August 10
 4 mn km2: August 23

May be interesting for this melt season to see how we are doing:) Don't know if these numbers fit best here or in the thread "2014 sea ice area and extent"...

Crandles: thank you for that info!:)

1282
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 15, 2014, 06:41:35 PM »
The following list are the earliest dates when SIE due to JAXA have been less than:

13 mn km2: April 24
12 mn km2: May 13
11 mn km2: June 3
10 mn km2: June 17
 9 mn km2: July 1
 8 mn km2: July 10
 7 mn km2: July 19
 6 mn km2: August 3
 5 mn km2: August 10
 4 mn km2: August 23

May be interesting for this melt season to see how we are doing :)

1283
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 15, 2014, 05:51:57 PM »
A few questions: where do I find daily data about the level of methane in the atmosphere?

And what I find most interesting right now in the Arctic is the apparent weakening of ice concentration in the Laptev sea where the ice thickness is only about 50 cm.. Given the powerful cyclone that is expected to hit this area I wouldn't be too surprised if we are going to see an early polynya...

1284
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 15, 2014, 05:28:49 PM »
Is it just me or is it really a new WWB starting up in WPAC? Given TAO the wind anomalies have grown more positive in WPAC now.. However, we are waiting for the winds to become more positive around date line to see things really happening..

I have just like you ASLR, noticed that there are some kind of possibility that another TC will form in the beginning of next week. However, this TC isn't seen in ECMWFs forecasts so we'll have to wait and see until the models converge more. It's however interesting to notice that GFS have the aforemented TC stronger in their latest run with a MSLP around 998 hPa at +180 hours... The next run (12z) will be interesting to look at! And so will the ECMWF 12z forecast...

Recalling the SOI, I consider the value of -4,3 as a consequence of the now dissolved powerful cat 4 Ita..

1285
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 10, 2014, 09:01:51 PM »
Well, long-range forecasts concerning TC:s are very difficult to do but if there would be a TC then it would be nice if it could help kick in El Niño :)

But a really big El Niño would be quite interesting... One wonder when the Kelvin wave finally comes to surface...

1286
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 10, 2014, 06:21:58 PM »
Rather interesting to see if the very powerful cyclone Ita will have any impact on the WWB.. Right now Ita is a Cat 4 hurricane with the potential to grow into a borderline Cat 4/Cat 5 hurricane before it makes landfall by tomorrow...

Otherwise, there are no visible signs of TC formation for the next 10 days..  The westerlies in the Pacific have continuosly abated and are now only marginally positive and even somewhat negative around the date line...

1287
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 06, 2014, 03:33:12 PM »
Jim, I'm not surprised! Not at all given how thin the ice was last year. Hadn't it been for the cold summer I believe we would have seen an virtually ice free North Pole already in august 2013... The question is whether this will occur this year or if we have to wait a few more years...

So far there are no signs of a negative AO which seems to be positive for at least one more week...

//LMV

1288
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 06, 2014, 03:23:12 PM »
ASLR, as you surely have noted there is also a minor likelihood for another TC to develop in the GFS extended forecast +180 hours. that would almost for sure increase the WWB.. ECMWF is hinting the possibility of another TC in WPAC around that time. But TC forecasts that far in time are always very tricky. I must say that I was disappointed about how bad Peipah evolved. I would have thought it to become at least a strong tropical storm but I'm glad for the people there who doesn't have to face another destructive hurricane just 4 months after Haiyan...

It will be very interesting to see tomorrows update from NOAA as well as BoMs update at tuesday! The big questions then are if:

1) how has the extremely warm pool of water eveolved in the Pacific?

2) have the pool climbed closer to the surface?

3) what are the Niño-indexes?

4) what are the different forecast models saying now compared to last month?

5) What are the other indexes like SOI, OLR etc looking?

And, of course we'll also look closely if there are any more hints of more TC's in WPAC :)

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 05, 2014, 12:53:23 PM »
The melting season is here with a thunder! Even if we aren't seen any sharp decrease in ice extent there is a considerable melting around the Arctic periphery now. The reason for why SIE isn't decreasing is due to the dispersed ice in the region of Svalbard which is compensating for the losses in Okhotsk, Berings, Labrador and St Lawrences area... Once the northerlies are replaced with southerlies we'll see a vertical limit to the SIE numbers.. How about that people? Reasonable or ::)?

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Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 01, 2014, 09:18:28 PM »
Seems like we have a very interesting week ahead.. Two areas in the tropics close to equator with a current low possibility to develop into tropical cyclones.. The one in WPAC seems to be the one which have the best chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.. ECMWF 12z run means bad news for Phillippinia...

The GFS doesn't give any better news and also develops the low into a TC..

If it develops into a tropical storm it will be named "Peipah"... In my ears it sounds like a bad name...

ASLR, do you have some valuable links to check daily change? I have only looked at NOAAs and BOMs updates and they are only for once a week...

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Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 27, 2014, 10:21:10 PM »
ASLR: the very same TC indeed  8) It will be interesting now to see if ECMWF continues to forecast this TC the coming days. And as you said it will for certain kick more warm water eastward due to its westerly track along low latitudes... We will then be in the beginning of april but if that TC keeps a westerly track it will likely be really bad news for Phillippinia.. Especially if it takes a similar path like Haiyan did...

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Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 27, 2014, 08:21:10 PM »
Doc Ock, did you see the latest ECMWF 12z forecast? Interestingly, the presumptive TC in the WPAC seems to get even stronger in this run... And it also looks to track along 150E-140E and together with the fact that it in that case will track on a low latitude it would certainly give the WWB some extra kick..

And yes, next update from NOAA on monday will certainly be extremely interesting as we then enter april 1... If it then is a 7C anomaly at that analysis, it will absolutely make one wonder where it will end... It would be very interesting to see a similar analysis for the SST anomaly for the 1997-1998 El Niño event at various depths!!


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Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 27, 2014, 04:52:32 PM »
Todays ECMWF 00z forecast put a very interesting sign! In about a week or so a tropical cyclone may form in the Western North Pacific.. The 00z forecast indicates an almost westerly track at a very low latitude for TC, only about 7-8N.. And yes, that may mean big trouble for Phillippinia.. If this mornings forecast run continues next days we might see something really nasty next month.. Since 1996 and onward four TC's in WPAC have managed to reach at least category 4 intensity in april (Isa in 1997 was the only one to reach cat 5). Those years were 1997 and 2003-2005.

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Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 24, 2014, 10:00:34 PM »
Well, if it turns out to be a exceptionally strong El niño event as many of us believe there will be some significant events that will be really interesting:

*) how many cat 5 hurricanes will show up in the Eastern Pacific and the Western Pacific? and just how calm will the season be in the Atlantic?

**) How much rain will California get next winter? Even if the rain will be much needed in that case it will also bring billion dollar costs due to flooding and so...

***) How big will the new global record annual high be?

****) Have I forgotten something that I should've been written here? ;D ::)

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Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 24, 2014, 07:24:50 PM »
BFTV: thank you for the very important info!! THAT explains why it didn't become a new record then!! :)

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Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 24, 2014, 06:40:01 PM »
ASLR there is certainly a chance that we'll see an intense El Niño soon and if so I won't be surprised if the annual global mean will set new a record for 2015 and maybe also this year.. So was the case during the powerful event 1997-1998. At that time the global mean temperature for 1998 smashed the previous record then from 1995 by a wide margin for the globe as a whole.. At least if one looks at data from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

A powerful El Niño doesn't mean that we'll get a new global temp record.. So was the case after the other powerful el Niño event in 1982-1983..

Btw, virtually the whole Pacific now has positive anomaly in the zonal wind.. A new Westerly Wind Burst seems to have developed around the date line...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: March 24, 2014, 06:20:45 PM »
I'm not surprised that the SIE went down by a huge 170 00 km2.. The cyclone that passed by Okhotsk did a good job! By the end of this week another possible intense cyclone will make another hit to Okhotsk sea..

Meanwhile, the next area after Okhotsk to be hit by a powerful cyclone is St Lawrence in about 2 days or so.. GFS 12z run indicates that this area will be hit by a cyclone with a central pressure about 955-960 hPa which almost for certain will blow the ice away... If GFS12z holds there will also be warmer conditions coming early next week...

As I said in one of my earlier posts I believe that the SIE will be below 14 million km2 on monday 31...  8)


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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: March 23, 2014, 10:01:48 AM »
The most recent ECMWF has a really interesting "heat dome" at central Siberia in the end of the forecast period. And as someone just mentioned, the GBH seems to be under way pushing warmer air to the Labrador sea.. And yes, in of my earlier post I said I believed the ice would go "pop" but I should have been more clear there. The ice that will go "pop" is that is located in the Okhotsk sea, St Lawrence and partially around Svalbard. And the same will be true for the Great Lakes ice.. At least for the next week. If the GBH is coming true we'll see huge ice transportation.. Long term forecasts are often uncertain, especially those after 7-8 days but the GFS give also hints about a change in the weather patterns in North America with a HP in connection with the GBH..

The coming days forecast will be very interesting!! :)

1299
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 22, 2014, 10:44:52 PM »
ASLR, maybe you have seen the latest from TAO? A nice WWB has established around the dateline and seems to strengthens. Almost the entire Pacific is now dominated by a positive wind anomaly. Only a minor area around 145W-158W still have winds about normal but given the recent trend I won't be surprised if the entire pacific ocean will be dominated by positive anomalies in the beginning of april...

A strong El Niño also will make this hurricane season really interesting! During the exceptionally strong El Niño event 1997-1998 not less than 10 category 5 hurricanes formed in the WPAC.. Three of them could be said to be almost on pair with Haiyan... But even a modest El Niño will affect the hurricane activity in the three basins..

In the EPAC on the other hand, Guillermo and Linda both reached cat 5 during 1997 where Linda also was the strongest estimated hurricane on record in the EPAC. One should however remember that the records for the EPAC is rather short and data only accurate from about 1970 and onwards.  About 90% of the EPACs cat 5 develops during El Niño years.. In the Atlantic basin the odds are rising that we'll see another calm season like last year...

Link: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh

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Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: March 21, 2014, 09:16:56 PM »
As newbie I have only read some of the posts, but it's an important scope that really few politicians are dare to talk about. But I don't think that we'll have to worry too much about the population issue in the long run. This is because we have some really worrysome threats that are impinging  upon us. Here are some of them, though not ranked:

1) Antibiotica resistance. The number of resistant bacterias are growing for every year and getting harder and harder to cure. This will lower the population in the future.

2) Chemicals and pollutioning. We're seeing it more and more. Chemicals are affecting us much more than most of us would like to believe. Just for example, here are the effects from Argentina where people are getting sick: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2013/10/agrochemical_spraying_in_argen.html Even if we are not directly exposed to them we are still eating those foods...

3) GM - food. While we are touting ourselves as the smart human animals who have the ability to choose avoids GMO's. Why would they avoid them if they are safe? I know there was a study where the hamsters became sterile over three generations after being fed GM - food.

4) New diseases. As we have seen, new flu viruses have recently developed with high mortality. Given our globalized world it would be very difficult to limit spreading of a flu virus. The recent flu strain H7N9 have a death rate of about 30%. so far it hasn't been able to infect humans easily. Next time a flu strain pops up we may not be that fortune.

5) Global warming. We know that the consequences of our emissions of GHG will alter the planets condition but we humans are just as inert as the oceans in taking actions for the future. That will also affect. For example, there are countries today that will get really big problems in a soon future as their water reservoirs are going to disappear. In Saudi Arabia the ground water will be gone in about 50 years or so if I remind a news article correct...

If we are summarizing all this I am rather confident that there is just a matter of time until the average age of people are starting to turn down.

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