Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Lord M Vader

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 27
51
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 19, 2019, 07:37:57 AM »
With that increase I think it's very likely that 2019 melting season is over. Seems very hard to have another decrease this late in the season.

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2019, 03:01:24 PM »
WOW, just WOW!!! NSIDC just came in with a big fat century break(!) Yes, a CENTURY BREAK(!!) How many times Have THAT happened at this time at year, or at least in September?😵 Anyone who knows?

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2019, 06:46:23 AM »
An amazingly surprising end of the 2019 melting season! Let's see if NSIDC manages to go second lowest too.

54
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 07, 2019, 10:16:09 AM »
Time to restart the thread about refreezing season now Neven?🙂

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:26:29 AM »
A lot of weather action the next 10 days according to EC 00z op run! The Atlantic sector will take a really big hit the first five days. And by the end of the forecast run EC hints of a possible bombcyclone over Kara Sea followed by a big dipole.

 

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2019, 10:36:23 AM »
There is already a thread for the upcoming freezing season that I started a couple of days ago. And that thread was blocked by Mr. Neven😁

57
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 20, 2019, 08:43:47 PM »
EC 12z op run has the cyclone down to 972 hpa. Not a GAC but surely an intensive bomb cyclone. Will be really interesting to see what this cyclone will do to the ice.

58
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 17, 2019, 10:50:48 PM »
The southern route of the Northwest Passage, Amundsens route is now more or less navigable. A few floes remains in the eastern part of the route but should melting out soon. Look at todays view at EOSDIS NASA satellite pic.

59
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 10:48:13 PM »
From what I can see at EOSDIS NASA satellite, the Northwest Passage, e.g Amundsens route, is now more or less navigable. A few floes remains at the east side but should melt out soon.

60
Arctic sea ice / 2020 refreezing season
« on: August 16, 2019, 07:55:14 PM »
While it might be somewhat early to discuss how the upcoming refreezing season will evolve I will at least open up the topic for discussion as the melting season is quickly winding down.

First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020....

61
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:04:03 PM »
Eyeballing the CAA it seems likely that the southern part of Northwest Passage will open up. Regarding the deeper Parry Channel I think it will remain blocked by ice. However, it is possible that McClure Strait will connect to the Parry Channel and at least partially open up the more northerly route.


62
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 09:55:09 PM »
Recent EC op run depicts a serious blow to parts of the Atlantic side as southerlies are entering. The melting is however quickly winding down but given the fairly weak state of the ice there I won't be surprised if we are going to see some decent drops over the next 10 days or so.

Also seems likely that some ice transport to the Beaufort will materialize if the forecast holds.

63
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 11, 2019, 09:48:17 AM »
Latest EC op run is a disaster for the ice. The thicker ice at the Atlantic side will be flushed out right into the the toilet, e.g big ice export. While the externt numbers might not be too influenced by this weather, the volume numbers should take a serious hit.

64
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 09:56:38 AM »
Latest EC op run is interesting in the longer frame. A big HP seems to establish over the whole Arctic and bring warm and sunny weather to the ice. The sun is still pretty strong so damage will be done. In addition, a decent amount of ice should be exported to the Atlantic killer zone.

Even if we don't get a new record low this year, 2019 should serve as a good "prepper year" if 2020 should be another bad year for the ice.

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 02:40:13 PM »
Thanks dnem!

My condoleances for you Neven. Take care of yourself.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 01:23:12 PM »
What sad thing has happened to Neven? :'(

The foreseen dipole might not be long lived which would be good.

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 10:01:13 PM »
Agree 100% with Friv about the BOE. It is not going to happen.

2012 is on everyones lips here but most people forget that 2012 not only had extremely good preconditioning and melting momentum but also two "prepper" years as both 2011 and 2010 was.

Personally, I think 2019 will end up at place 2-5 depending on the weather conditions during the next month.

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 09:55:31 AM »
Laptev bite has reached 80°N now.

69
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 10, 2019, 10:07:32 AM »
Friv is correct wrt the snow cover in 2012. NSIDC wrote that most of the melting of sea ice around Antarctica is due to bottom melting. Melting ponds are rarely observed onto the ice. A lot of precip is falling onto the ice around Antarctica.

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 09:05:01 PM »
 EC 12op has a 977 hpa Intensive cyclone in Laptev at D9-10. Night be interesting if it pans out. D6-8 has dipole.

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 09:23:59 AM »
Friv: The 00z EURO is brutal through D7.

Indeed Friv, indeed! This year we might call the high pressure domination in Arctic: "Ridiculously Resilient Arctic Ridge". Most people at the forum remember RRR that hovered west of US for a few years.

72
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 09:52:27 PM »
EC 12z op is really bad! Unlike the GFS 12z run, the model run is NOT breaking down the effect from the FSW (earlier post wrt Judah Cohens tweet).

Both moďels are quite consistent in that next four days or so will be impacted by bad weather for the sea ice. Bwyond that, the models are diverging.

73
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 06:39:48 PM »
Latest GFS 12z op run hints of another 4-5 days with bad weather for the ice. After that we might see more ice friendly weather.

At D4 we are at July 10. The question is whether this is too late or not to put a decent brake on the heavy ice loss we have seen? If so, I will not be too surprised if the first ten days of July will see above average volume losses followed by more seasonable losses when next update from PIOMAS is out.


74
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 05, 2019, 10:57:56 PM »
Seems like a potential polynya might develop in the area around 82°N 150°W in the western CAB. Many small holes in the ice there that vän be sen at EOADIS NASA. Troublesome!

75
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 04, 2019, 09:32:50 PM »
I do not appreciate the latest EC run! The more benign conditions that have been present from earlier runs is not as discernible in this run. Kara Sea seems to be the only region that will see "ice friendly" conditions, from D4 and onward then. First the area will be hammered over next 48 hours or so. But not much ice left there anyway.

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 04, 2019, 08:51:15 AM »
Both the Pacific and the Atlantic side will get hammered during the next 5-6 days or so. After that it looks like things will calm down somewhat and give the icemore of s relief from constant hammering. Of course, a minor cyclone moving directly over "weak" ice in the border area between Laptev/ESS and CAB at D6-D8 might be a problem at that moment if the forecast holds. The damage is already done however.

77
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 10:34:20 PM »
Magnamentis:  ;D ;D ;D Thanks for that, made me laugh!




78
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 07:38:17 PM »
The latest operational GFS rum is a really sobering one.

Neven, it was funny. But WD88 has not responsed to you yet. ;D

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 08:44:59 AM »
EC 00 run puts the sea ice at Death row....

80
As first böter, I think we likely will be in the orange 4,00-4,50. Depending on how July unfolds I night bin den one step at next time for voting.

81
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 11:16:25 PM »
Neven: yes, that's the maps.😊

In 3-4 days we should get a clue about just how bad this month been to the ice when PIOMAS present their data for June.

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 10:32:37 PM »
Great job Neven! One question, how does melting momentum map looks like now compared to earlier records low years after this June?

From EC ensembles, next week looks rather consistent in bringing bad weather for the ice. Especially CAA and the Atlantic sector should take a big hit. What happens beyond that I think will be a key to the outcome of this melting season. If the weak cyclones manager to break through the high pressure dome and take over the weather pattern for a few weeks or so it might be enough to prevent a new record low minimum.

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 11:36:37 PM »
Beware of Godzilla!

Do not be surprised to see five consecutive century breaks over next five days or so. Ice in Kara, Grenland and Baffin should be gone very soon. And, as Friv says, all that very warm water from south will humilate the ice in Chukchi and ESS. And parts of Laptev should be smoked.


84
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 09:27:22 PM »
Any guesses about how big the July cliff will be?

Previous years in the bottom had lower extents for this date but not as much open waters in the "true" Arctic e.g if you exclude peripheral areas like Hudson and Baffin. The amount of energy as the open water will suck up will be astonishing and with serious consequences by fall.

85
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 12:42:57 PM »
The fourth is mankind humanity a.k.a Death.......

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 09:07:12 AM »
While forecasts from D6-D10 are unreliable, especially operational ones,  it is interesting to see that a cyclone might get its influence over the Pacific side.
EC forecast for D1-D5 continues to remain very bad for the ice.

87
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 10:16:49 PM »
EC 12z ensemble is just brutal for the next 5 days. The heat is just walking around the Arctic. CAA and Chukchi sea should take a major hit.

EC 12z op has some more cyclonic activity in the later range which might be the only hope for the Arctic to put some brake at this melting season and prevent a new record low in September. At least, we have to look for some good signs even if it is far out.

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 05:44:38 PM »
Jim Hunt: see post my #2369 from June 23 where I posted the link from Zack Labe wrt SIPN prediction. Of course, I should have mentioned that one of the posts was wrt to SIPN.

With warm southerlies entering from Pacific the question is hiw much damage the ice will take? Especially the weak "arm" in western CAB will be of particular interest.

89
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 08:26:38 AM »
Michael Hauber, I wouldn't call it an improvement. The heat is just relocated and will make severe damage to the ice in CAB, CAA and Beaufort.

90
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 06:35:46 PM »
Well, let's see what the EURO and the ensemble says Friv. But a dipole now, that would be to deal with a killer...

92
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 23, 2019, 12:01:44 PM »
Jim Hunt, North Pole experienced similar conditions during a couple of days during the last third of May, i.e May 20 and 28-31. At least if you only compare the mosaic of Terra 3-6-7.

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 22, 2019, 10:28:33 AM »
The models seems to be easing somewhat wrt monster high in the later part of forecast period. Still very bad but not as bad as previous runs.

94
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 21, 2019, 09:34:19 AM »
D8 at EC 00z op. Godzilla high at 1043 hpa over the Arctic basin... :o This will be a complete assault to the ice. Just wonder how much longer the brown ice in Chukchi Sea will linger?

95
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 18, 2019, 09:03:50 PM »
EC 12z operational is absolutely BRUTAL at the end of the forecast period!!! Let's see what ensemble and Friv says...

If THAT forecast pans out and also later builds in over Greenland as the signs points to we might very well get a decent race with 2012 to the bottom.

96
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 11:17:13 PM »
As both GFS and ECMWF both hints of high pressure dominated weather over the Arctic basin it seems to be a likely evolution. One question is how the cold pool over Beaufort acts later in the time frame.

The Atlantic side may also take a big hit.

97
Consequences / Re: Widespread Ocean Anoxia to be Noticeable by 2030
« on: June 17, 2019, 04:44:04 PM »
Nasa Giss is in. May 2019 was the third warmest behind 2016 and 2017 with an anomaly of 0,87° above the 1951-1980 mean. 2016 had an anomaly of 0,95° while 2017 had 0,89°.

98
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 04:41:02 PM »
FYI, Nasa Giss just reported that May 2019 was the third warmest behind 2016 and 2017.

99
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 10:39:23 AM »
Nuts is a good word Friv. The only area that won't be affected is the CAA. All other areas are going to be severly burned. This is also showing up in the EC 00z ENSEMBLE! Prepare for Onslaught to come!

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
The only area that has a realistic shot to compensate for the sea ice in CAA is in the northern Greenland Sea. As we can see from Frivs map, that area was still ice covered at the minimumback in 2012. The last few years the ice has melten out there.  Just my opinion.

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 27