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Messages - 1rover1

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Antarctica / Re: Ronne and Ross Ice Shelf
« on: January 25, 2021, 06:01:22 AM »
There is a dedicated Ross Ice Shelf thread, and a thread for "hazard analysis of the FRIS/RIS.."  Might find a few bits of interest in those.

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: December 02, 2020, 07:16:37 AM »
I'm mostly a longtime lurker here, but I must say the detailed analysis here is greatly helping my understanding of the dynamic forces at play.  It is apparent to me that as the main PIG has retreated, there is therefore less lateral or constraining forces on the adjacent ice sheets.   The lack of constraint combined with the difference in flow speed between adjacent ice streams is now causing them to  tear each other apart, thereby compounding the whole issue.  I'm sure this was obvious to others, but the clarity provided in the recent animations in how these mechanisms are working is fascinating, and somewhat terrifying.  Thank you everyone for the good work and intelligent conversation in here.   

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: September 10, 2020, 02:13:53 AM »
I agree over the long haul that forests have little affect on long term carbon.  In my forestry classes in University 30 years ago, as they explained the carbon cycle, professional foresters. were dubunking the concept of  forests as a carbon storage solution.   If you were to put a dome over a forest, over the life cycle of that forest, the net carbon input vs output is 0.  Yes, trees store carbon as they grow, in the form of wood, and leaves, and roots, and animal biomass.  As that biomass ages and dies, and decays, the leaves and trees and bark and wood, and animal carbon, is all consumed by insects, fungus, micro-organisms and fire, that carbon they consume is then released again, back into the atmosphere.   You can generate some medium term storage of the carbon by harvesting the forest, and storing the products as lumber and paper and stacking things up in libraries, but that too, eventually, will break down and be released as carbon again. The only long term land storage of carbon in a forest is in the peat bogs, which can also burn and decay on occasion.  But farming peat and long term conversion of peat to coals and other fossil fuels for long term storage is a separate discussion from forestry.   

Glaciers / Re: Canadian Glaciers
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:50:29 AM »
A short news article regarding the acceleration, retreat, and increased calving of the Trinity and Wykeham glaciers on the eastern side of Ellesmere Island.  The terminus of these glaciers is a fiord that empties into Pikialasorsuaq, the North Water Polynya—an area of year-round open water that’s the largest of its kind in the Arctic. 

In 2000, these two glaciers produced 22 per cent of all of the icebergs in the Canadian Arctic. By 2019, they produced 65 per cent.

Glaciers / Re: Canadian Glaciers
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:12:35 AM »
The linked article discusses the Penny Ice Cap on Baffin Island. 

Overall, there has been a four‐fold increase in mass loss from Penny Ice Cap between 1995‐2000 (‐1.3 ± 0.7 Gt a‐1) and 2005‐2013 (‐5.4 ± 1.9 Gt a‐1). The rapid upglacier migration of the equilibrium line has left large areas of sub‐surface firn in the current ablation area, and has far outpaced the ice flow response, illustrating that the ice cap is not in equilibrium, and out of balance with the current climate.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Temperatures at Eureka, Nunavut, Canada
« on: June 29, 2020, 04:10:25 AM »
My understanding is the Environment Canada station is near the coast at 0 elevation.  The Airfield according to Nav Canada is at 83 meters (272 feet)

Then there is, PEARL,  the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (Canadian Network for Detection of Atmospheric Change).  PEARL has three sites: The PEARL Ridge Laboratory 15km from the Eureka weather station at 610m elevation, the 0PAL laboratory next to the weather station and the SAFIRE site which is far from structures for undisturbed measurements.  Couple of links.,from%20structures%20for%20undisturbed%20measurements.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 22, 2020, 05:06:13 AM »
For some real time images of the snow in the CAA there are a few good cameras at Canadian airports on the Nav Canada WxCam site.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 31, 2019, 11:36:06 PM »
I am enjoying the analysis and progress of the NIS and thinking it would become one of my regular go-to items.  However, I suggest the NIS should now have it's own thread and not be on the PIG thread as all they now share is past influence, and the bay.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 29, 2019, 02:25:20 AM »
Wasn't sure where to post this - For those looking for live images, Nav Canada has a site with Live weather cameras at a lot of Canadian airports.  Many of the cameras at northern Airports have a bit of the sea in the background.

Glaciers / Re: Canadian Glaciers
« on: April 12, 2018, 01:59:54 AM »

Interesting article about a new find of a hypersaline subglacial lake under the Devon Ice Cap in Nunavut, Canada.

The full published article is here:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 16, 2017, 06:52:07 AM »
At risk of getting too far off topic, but noting the discussion of the Canadian wildfire smoke and trajectory, affecting melt, there is a website which forecasts hourly smoke levels in Canada based on the inputs of known fires, location, size, and weather.  Forecast does not extend all the way into the CAA, but some indication.

Regarding the number of fires mentioned by Werther, Alberta has had a below average number of hectares burn this year (14,794 ha compared to 5 year average 294,000 ha).  Alberta sitrep here:

Somewhat more detailed, but here is Canada's national wildfire sitrep.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: June 14, 2017, 09:32:53 PM »
Good question Mamooth. I just checked the Canadian Ice service report and they report the following in the Strait :  "Special ice warning in effect.  1 tenth of first-year ice including a trace of old ice. Unusual presence of sea ice."

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: June 13, 2017, 04:52:04 PM »

A Canadian Ice breaker was diverted from a Science Mission in the arctic to rescue missions off Newfoundland due to dangerous ice conditions.

About 40 scientists from five Canadian universities were scheduled to use the icebreaker CCGS Amundsen for the first leg of a 133-day expedition across the Arctic. It's part of a $17-million, four-year project led by the University of Manitoba that looks at both the effects of climate change as well as public health in remote communities.

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: May 31, 2017, 06:48:29 PM »
The rift has grown by 17 km since May 25!
"In the largest jump since January, the rift in the Larsen C Ice Shelf has grown an additional 17 km (11 miles) between May 25 and May 31 2017. This has moved the rift tip to within 13 km (8 miles) of breaking all the way through to the ice front, producing one of the largest ever recorded icebergs. The rift tip appears also to have turned significantly towards the ice front, indicating that the time of calving is probably very close."

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: May 02, 2017, 05:20:17 PM »

The linked articles note the rift in the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica now has a second branch, which is moving in the direction of the ice front.  "While the previous rift tip has not advanced, a new branch of the rift has been initiated. This is approximately 10km behind the previous tip, heading towards the ice-front.  "This is the first significant change to the rift since February of this year. Although the rift length has been static for several months, it has been steadily widening, at rates in excess of a metre per day."

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 28, 2016, 02:19:47 AM »
My old laptop crashed last month and with it all the bookmarks I had which included nation and worldwide wildfire reports/maps.

Can anyone recommend a few sights for me? Google searches have proven disappointing.

Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center Sitrep:

Canadian Fire Smoke Forecast:

American NIFC National Interagency Coordination Center Sitrep is linked from here:

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 27, 2015, 10:09:33 PM »
Western canada experienceing drought, heat fires, agricultural emergencies, low river flows for hydroelectric power and drinking, limited water use.

Arctic background / Re: Arctic Wildfires
« on: August 25, 2015, 07:18:02 AM »
The Siberian wildfires are in the boreal forest, an environment that needs wildfire to maintain itself, so from that perspective, whether ignited by man or lightning, they are a natural event to a point.  But the wildfire fighting community has a bit of a problem; they got too good at it for their own good.  Since the end of WWII they got really good at fighting wildfires, finding them early, hitting them hard, using helicopters, air tankers, heavy equipment, and gas powered pumps.   Or at least they got really good at fighting the low intensity wildfires who's spread and behaviour were already somewhat limited by small amounts of forest fuel loading in the understory. 

On the parts of the landscape with timber we used logging to, in some respects, emulate wildfire.  It removes the fuels, we re-establish the trees and keep the forest young.  But there are many parts of the landscape, the black spruce bogs, slow growing soil types, steep slopes, sensitive areas, parks, and residential subdivisions in the forest, where, through firefighting, we almost eliminated fire, the landscape.  This, in an ecosystem, that relies on fire as a natural disturbance, as it's only natural method to replenish itself.   Over this last 70 years the amount of fuels on the landscape has been changing, increasing, well beyond what might be within the natural range of variability. 

So now, many of our wildfires in the boreal forest are driven by a much higher fuel loading than they saw before.  The network, or patchwork, of small or low intensity wildfires is gone from the landscape, and we experience the mega fire phenomenon.  (Google mega fire and you get lots of good reading).   These fuel driven mega fires are further complicated by changes in the weather.  Wildfire behaviour is incredibly sensitive to relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and fuel type, and all of these are sensitive to climate change. 

One small example of a seemingly minor weather change with big implications.  The temperature of our overnight lows seem to be changing, increasing, although our daytime high temps seem less changed, (according to a few small local data sets we looked at, nothing publishable).  But this one small change means more frost free days, earlier snow melt in spring, less relative humidity recovery (increase) overnight, a longer effective wildfire burning period during the day,  grass curing earlier in the season so more cured (flammable) grass,  and I’m sure a whole number of more complications.

Arctic background / Re: Arctic Wildfires
« on: August 11, 2015, 07:45:48 AM »
For Canadian wildfire smoke forecasts, - smoke drift-  based on locations of Canadian fires, bluesky has a good website updated daily

Bluesky smoke forecasts also available for Alaska and US:

For daily updates of the Canadian wildfire situation and stats you can look at the CIFFC - the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre

For the US wildfire situation and wildfire stats (in acres), NIFC - The National Interagency Wildfire Coordination Center has a sitrep updated daily

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 01, 2015, 07:10:12 PM »
Would be interesting to add the Churchill Port cam on Hudson's Bay to the webcam page over in sea ice graphs.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: April 01, 2015, 07:47:30 AM »

That is how you get major flooding events in the spring in snow country.

In snowy mountain country it is rain, warm rain on snow and ice in the mountains will flood the valleys below.  I imagine rain on ice will melt it in the arctic as well.  And warm air is one thing, but warm moist air holds a lot more energy and melting power than warm dry air.  Wind will melt the snow fast, as well, because it mixes the air and keeps the warm air near the snow.  But warm wind does not usually cause flooding, because it also causes evaporation of whatever it melts.  Not that flooding is actually a problem in the arctic, but I wonder if it affects melt pond formation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 29, 2014, 06:45:23 AM »
Ice in the port of Churchill is looking pretty rotten now.  Shows up in the live camera feed.

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