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Messages - BornFromTheVoid

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101
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:41:26 PM »
A double update today, to make up for missing out last weekend.

Update for the week to July 15th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,114,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,857,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,638,000km2, an increase from -1,498,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +134,000km2, an increase from +63,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 5th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -101.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -81.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -111.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -89.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -90.9k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 125.0k/day is required (more than -124.4k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 30.8k/day (less than 16.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 71.8k/day (63.7k/day with single day values).


102
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 09, 2017, 05:06:19 PM »
Update for the week to July 7th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,824,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,681,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,498,000km2, an increase from -1,420,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +63,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -99.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -88.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -131.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -81.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -111.6k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 117.9k/day is required (more than -122.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 52.3k/day (less than 50.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 80.8k/day (81.7k/day with single day values).


103
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 02, 2017, 03:06:18 PM »
July 1st typically sees the largest extent drop of the year within the NSIDC extent series.
The average extent drop from 1979 to 2016 is 203k, with the last 10 years averaging a 261k drop and 2013 achieving the largest drop, at 349k.

This year saw a slightly below average drop, just 177k, making it the 15th smallest from 39 years.



104
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2017, 02:27:47 PM »
Update for the week to July 1st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 9,521,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,244,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,420,000km2, an increase from -1,213,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -160,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -98.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -69.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -100.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -88.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -131.5k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 4th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 113.6k/day is required (more than -111.8k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 63.3k/day (less than 58.0k/day with single day values) and an average loss a drop of 85.2k/day (81.4k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in June was the 4th largest on record while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.




105
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2017, 04:07:24 PM »
Update for the week to June 24th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,214,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,034,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,213,000km2, an increase from -1,061,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -169,000km2, an increase from -150,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -80.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -59.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -78.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -69.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -100.2k/day.



The extent loss so far this June is the 4th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 170.1k/day is required (more than -210.2k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 134.8k/day (at least 247.1k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires an increase of 32.4k/day (96.2k/day with single day values).


106
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 19, 2017, 06:30:41 PM »
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2017/06/climate-scientists-seeking-opinion-stupid-idiot-complete-study/

Climate scientists seeking opinion of stupid idiot to complete study

OTTAWA – Scientists are nearing completion on another planet-wide study on climate change, but say they require the opinion of a “real stupid idiot” in order to complete their work.

“We’ve spent months conducting research and analyzing the data,” explained Dr. Naomi Prashad. “So we’re nearly there. We just need the assistance of a total brow-furrowing goddamn dolt to point out any shortcomings in our work.”

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2017, 06:26:58 PM »
Update for the week to June 17th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,780,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,605,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,061,000km2, an increase from -792,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -150,000km2, an increase from -136,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -84.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -46.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -82.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -59.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -78.1k/day.



The extent loss so far this June is the 2nd largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 122.1k/day is required (more than -128.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 18.7k/day (at least 38.0k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 27.8k/day (16.9k/day with single day values).


108
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 14, 2017, 07:15:26 PM »
Update for the week to June 10th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,371,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,234,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -792,000km2, an increase from -672,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -136,000km2, a decrease from -179,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -69.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -52.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -75.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -46.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -82.6k/day.



The extent loss so far this June is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 109.0k/day is required (more than -113.4k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 17.5k/day (less than 11.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 47.6k/day (45.3k/day with single day values).


109
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 14, 2017, 04:02:37 PM »
When looking at the potential upcoming depression in the Arctic, in order to assess how much damage it might do we need to look at more than just the central pressure. The surrounding pressure systems matter too.

Last year's Arctic cyclone was surrounded by high pressure systems, with pressure >1025hPa over the Beaufort sea and Greenland, and a large >1020hPa region over the Barents sea during the stormy period. Coupled with the deep depressions in the eastern Arctic, this created a steep pressure gradient which you need to generate the wind and waves that are damaging to the sea ice.

On the other hand, the forecasted cyclone this month isn't surrounded by any strong high pressure systems. There's weak low pressure system over Scandinavia, pretty neutral pressures over Greenland and a shallow high pressure over the Beaufort sea.
This type of set up is very unlikely to cause much damage, it might in fact be better for ice preservation as it's carrying somewhat cool air and more cloud over the central pack.




110
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2017, 05:00:55 PM »
Update for the week to June 3rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,858,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,681,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -672,000km2, an increase from -612,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -179,000km2, an increase from -126,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 7th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -60.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -51.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -52.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -52.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -75.5k/day.



The extent loss so far this June is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 98.7k/day is required (more than -99.5k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 30.9k/day (less than 26.2k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 53.3k/day (50.5k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in May was the 12th smallest on record while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.





111
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 29, 2017, 12:30:21 PM »
Update for the week to May 28th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,278,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,215,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -612,000km2, a decrease from -651,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -126,000km2, a decrease from -200,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -37.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -50.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -54.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -51.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -52.5k/day.



The extent loss so far this May is the 7th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 244.6k/day is required (more than -457.5k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 80.6k/day (at least 192.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 75.6k/day (119.6k/day with single day values)



112
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 23, 2017, 09:43:23 PM »
Update for the week to May 20th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,543,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,514,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -651,000km2, a decrease from -672,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -200,000km2, a decrease from -241,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -39.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -44.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -47.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -50.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -54.1k/day.



The extent loss so far this May is the 8th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 113.2k/day is required (more than -134.9k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 5.3k/day (at least 9.6k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 51.5k/day (59.8k/day with single day values).


113
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 15, 2017, 05:00:35 PM »
Second warmest April on record according to the JMA



1st. 2016(+0.54°C)
2nd. 2017(+0.38°C)
3rd. 2014,1998(+0.31°C)
5th. 2015(+0.30°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/apr_wld.html

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 15, 2017, 01:44:01 PM »
Update for the week to May 13th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,070,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,079,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -672,000km2, a decrease from -736,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -241,000km2, a decrease from -271,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week.




The average daily change over the last 7 days was -34.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -43.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -38.4k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -44.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -47.1k/day.



The extent loss so far this May is the 12th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 85.2k/day is required (more than -86.6k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 12.8k/day (less than 5.3k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 47.5k/day (44.4k/day with single day values).



115
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 07, 2017, 06:44:32 PM »
Update for the week to May 6th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,070,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,079,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -736,000km2, a decrease from -790,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -271,000km2, a decrease from -346,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, down from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -61.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -64.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -43.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -38.4k/day.



The extent loss so far this May is the 14th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 70.9k/day is required (more than -77.3k/day with with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 18.8k/day (less than 20.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 43.8k/day (48k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in April was the 3rd smallest on record, while the average extent was the 2nd lowest on record.




116
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2017, 11:12:13 AM »
Update for the week to April 29th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,587,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,493,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -790,000km2, a decrease from -935,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -346,000km2, a decrease from -515,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -20.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -40.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -44.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -43.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -45.2k/day.



The extent loss so far this April is the 4th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 898.5k/day is required (more than -4,457.1k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop an increase of at least than 25.5k/day (at least 161.9k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 385.2k/day (1,891.0k/day with single day values).


117
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 23, 2017, 08:21:22 PM »
Update for the week to April 22nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,587,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,493,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -935,000km2, a decrease from -966,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -515,000km2, an increase from -445,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -32.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -22.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -40.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -44.2k/day.



The extent loss so far this April is the 14th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 130.0k/day is required (more than -157.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 14.4k/day (less than 3.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 65.7k/day (-71.9k/day with single day values).


118
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 16, 2017, 03:23:00 PM »
Update for the week to April 15th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,817,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,739,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -966,000km2, a decrease from -970,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -445,000km2, an increase from -392,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 3rd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -38.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -39.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -31.4k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -37.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -22.8k/day.



The extent loss so far this April is the 12th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 84.6k/day is required (more than -91.6k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 23.0k/day (less than 20.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 50.4k/day (-52.1k/day with single day values).


119
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 10, 2017, 12:34:08 PM »
They are surface air (2m) temps for area 65°N - 90°N. That includes for example northern part of Alaska, Northern Canada, Greenland, Svalbard, northern Scandinavia and northern part of Russia.
There are 4 estimates per day, 6-hour difference, so I calculate daily average. Days 5-7 have been rather incorrect, as actual temperatures turned out higher.

Thanks for that. I wonder if it might be better to use 925hPa or maybe 850hPa temperatures now that we're in the melt season? The surface air temps will hold close to 0C regardless of heat input over much of the Arctic for the next few months, so it may not be of much use

120
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 10, 2017, 11:48:09 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Sort of interesting situation - mainland temperatures remain low, but Pacific side, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and North Pole significantly warmer than usual.

Sorry if this has been answered before, but are the values there for surface air temps? How are they calculated? Cheers

121
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 09, 2017, 07:02:28 PM »
Update for the week to April 8th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,090,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,995,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -970,000km2, a decrease from -1,114,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -392,000km2, a decrease from -477,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -10.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -31.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -23.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -39.6k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -31.4k/day.



The extent loss so far this April is the 6th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 73.1k/day is required (over -72.3k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 31.0k/day (loss less than 26.1k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 49.7k/day (-46.7k/day with single day values).


122
The Central England Temperature (CET) for March is out and it was the 3rd warmest on record, going back to 1659.
Interestingly, the 30th averaged 15.1C making it the warmest March day in the entire record and the first to average above 15C.

123
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 02, 2017, 07:10:49 PM »
Update for the week to April 1st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,167,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,126,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,114,000km2, a decrease from -1,255,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -477,000km2, a decrease from -570,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +8.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -12.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -5.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -31.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -23.1k/day.



The extent loss so far this April is the 9th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 55.9k/day is required (at least -58.5k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 24.0k/day (loss of less than 24.2k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 38.1k/day (-39.4k/day with single day values).



The extent change in March was the 16th least negative on record, while the average extent was the lowest on record.




124
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2017, 04:21:14 PM »
Update for the week to March 25th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,111,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,073,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,255,000km2, an increase from -1,148,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -570,000km2, an increase from -506,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -27.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -12.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -18.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -12.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -5.3k/day.



The extent change so far this March is the 16th most negative record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 106.4k/day is required (at least +168.9k/day with with single day values), while the largest drop requires a loss of at least 77.4k/day (loss of at least 106.6k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 3.4k/day (+14.6k/day with single day values).


125
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 22, 2017, 08:38:40 PM »
Update for the week to March 18th (finally!)

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,305,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,178,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,148,000km2, the same as last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -506,000km2, an increase from -498,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -7.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -7.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -4.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -12.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -18.5k/day.



The extent change so far this March is the 19th least negative record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 34.1k/day is required (at least +52.0k/day with with single day values), while the largest drop requires a loss of at least 50.6k/day (loss of at least 48.4k/day with single day values) and an average change requires a loss of 13.3k/day (loss of 4.2k/day with single day values).


126
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: March 15, 2017, 11:13:59 AM »
2nd warmest February on record according to the JMA



1st. 2016(+0.62°C)
2nd. 2017(+0.44°C)
3rd. 1998(+0.43°C)
4th. 2002(+0.28°C)
5th. 2015(+0.26°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/feb_wld.html

127
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 12, 2017, 05:12:35 PM »
Update for the week to March 11th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,354,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,420,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,148,000km2, an increase from -1,127,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -498,000km2, an increase from -410,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -3.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -0.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +9.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -7.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -4.8k/day



The extent change so far this March is the 15th most positive record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 19.7k/day is required (at least +18.3k/day with with single day values), while the largest drop requires a loss of at least 35.4k/day (loss of at least 43.1k/day with single day values) and an average change requires a loss of 11.1k/day (loss of 16.0k/day with single day values).


128
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 07, 2017, 08:45:38 PM »
A quick messy graph.

On the primary y-axis is the previous maxima (blue) and the last 39 days of extent (green).

We've the current difference from the previous maxima shown by the red bars and using the secondary y-axis.

So, still 105k off last year's max

All NSIDC and 5 day average


129
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 05, 2017, 05:53:48 PM »
Update for the week to March 4th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,377,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,437,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,127,000km2, an increase from -1,102,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -410,000km2, an increase from -293,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 3rd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +2.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +5.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +19.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -0.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +9.3k/day



The extent change so far this March is the 15th most positive record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 13.9k/day is required (at least +12.6k/day with with single day values), while the largest drop requires a loss of at least 27.1k/day (loss of at least 31.9k/day with single day values) and an average change requires a loss of 9.1k/day (loss of 12.3k/day with single day values).



The extent increase in February was the 19th smallest on record while the average extent was the lowest on record.




130
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2017, 08:13:23 PM »
Update for the week to February 25th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,360,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,362,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,102,000km2, an increase from -1,091,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -293,000km2, a decrease from -330,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, down from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +17.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +19.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +12.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +5.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +19.0k/day.



The extent increase so far this February is the 12th largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 58.8k/day is required (at least +146.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of at least 191.4k/day (loss of at least 478.9k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a loss of 31.1k/day (loss of 78.8k/day with single day values)


131
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 19, 2017, 04:34:51 PM »
Update for the week to February 18th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 14,238,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,304,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,091,000km2, a decrease from -1,312,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -330,000km2, a decrease from -441,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +49.0k/day, compared to the long term average of +17.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +33.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +19.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +12.1k/day.



The extent increase so far this February is the 13th largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 29.8k/day is required (at least +29.1k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of at least 45.3k/day (loss of at least 64.8k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 2.8k/day (loss of 4.7k/day with single day values).



132
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: February 16, 2017, 02:30:58 PM »
Hey folks, were hosting a Q&A session on reddit.com/r/science today that might be of interest to some here

American Geophysical Union AMA: Hi Reddit, I’m Chris Borstad, and I’m here to talk about the peculiar nature of snow and ice related to avalanches and glaciers. Ask Me Anything!

Hi Reddit! I am Chris Borstad, Associate Professor of Snow and Ice Physics at the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS). Located at 78 degrees north, UNIS (www.unis.no) is the northernmost institution of higher education and research in the world. I am fascinated by snow and ice, and my research relates to processes that cause ice and snow to fracture. Most recently I have been studying the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica, where a massive crack in the ice is about to release an iceberg the size of Delaware! By improving our understanding of what caused this event and what the consequences are for the ice shelf, we hope to make better predictions of how other ice shelves around Antarctica will respond to a changing climate. I also study the physics of snow avalanches, a research interest that originated with a desire not to get caught in an avalanche myself while skiing in the backcountry. The most destructive types of avalanches occur after a large volume of snow is undercut by fractures. I am working to better understand these fascinating natural phenomena so that we can hopefully keep people out of harm’s way.
I will be back to answer your questions at 12 pm ET, Ask me Anything!
Follow me on twitter @RogueChrisB.


https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/5uer59/american_geophysical_union_ama_hi_reddit_im_chris/

133
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 12, 2017, 04:57:32 PM »
Update for the week to February 11th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,895,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,864,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,312,000km2, an increase from -1,232,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -441,000km2, an increase from -345,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +9.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +21.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +23.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +17.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +33.3k/day.



The extent increase so far this February is the 11th smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 37.7k/day is required (at least +45.0k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of at least 6.4k/day (loss of at least 5.3k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 21.8k/day (gain of 26.8k/day with single day values).


134
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 06, 2017, 11:34:39 PM »

135
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 05, 2017, 05:20:44 PM »
Update for the week to February 4th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,828,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,834,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,232,000km2, an increase from -1,106,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -345,000km2, an increase from -294,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +16.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +34.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +23.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +21.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +23.2k/day.



The extent increase so far this February is the 19th smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 29.6k/day is required (at least +31.9k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of at least 1.8k/day (loss of at least 2.3k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 18.3k/day (gain of 19.7k/day with single day values)



The extent increase in January was the 13th smallest on record while the average extent was the lowest on record.



136
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 30, 2017, 10:27:26 PM »
I'm not reall keeping a close eye, but to me it would seem that we see a similarity arising between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice: volatility. Mainly at the edges, of course. That's because the ice is thin and doesn't get a chance to thicken because of heat/moisture via atmosphere and ocean.

To emphasis that point,  the previous record for the most daily drops in the 5 day average from November to January was 6, in 1980/1, 1983/4 and 2005/6. This year, we're already at 11.

137
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 30, 2017, 10:00:13 PM »
The 5 day average NSIDC extent is back to losses, and lowest on record too.

Interestingly, from 1979-2002, no year had more than 3 drops in the 5 day average in January. Since then we've had 2003 (5), 2006 (6), 2007 (4), 2009 (4), 2012 (5) and so far this year we've had 5 also.

Another interesting stat is in each of the years with more than 3 drops, all drops were grouped together/consecutive. For example, the 2003 losses were from the 22nd to the 26th inclusive, 2006 from the 16th to the 21st, 2012 from the 16th to the 20th, etc
This year, they've been broken apart, dated 9th, 10th, 13th, 16th and 29th so far

I have some ideas on why that might be, but I'll leave the speculation to you folks!

138
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 29, 2017, 03:11:40 PM »
Update for the week to January 28th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,714,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,655,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,106,000km2, a decrease from -1,386,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -294,000km2, a decrease from -510,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, the same last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +75.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +35.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +44.4k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +34.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +23.7k/day.



The extent increase so far this January is the 18th smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 187.8k/day is required (at least +510.6k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of at least 125.0k/day (loss of at least 271.3k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 37.7k/day (gain of 135.5k/day with single day values).


139
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2017, 09:24:41 PM »
Update for the week to January 21st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,187,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,373,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,386,000km2, a decrease from -1,387,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -510,000km2, a decrease from -556,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +40.1k/day, compared to the long term average of +39.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +33.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +35.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +44.4k/day.



The extent increase so far this January is the 5th smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 109.1k/day is required (at least +113.1k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 15.2k/day (loss of at least 4.5k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 64.0k/day (gain of 56.7k/day with single day values).


140
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 18, 2017, 09:53:42 PM »

141
The rest / Re: NVM
« on: January 15, 2017, 09:48:47 PM »
Off Topic :P

142
The rest / Re: NVM
« on: January 15, 2017, 09:02:00 PM »
Nevermind?

143
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2017, 07:02:14 PM »
Update for the week to January 14th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,906,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,855,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,387,000km2, an increase from -1,142,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -556,000km2, an increase from -429,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +6.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +41.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +63.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +39.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +33.5k/day.



The extent increase so far this January is the 3rd smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 80.7k/day is required (at least +94.9k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 25.4k/day (less than 32.3k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 54.2k/day (gain of 64.8k/day with single day values).


144
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 08, 2017, 05:06:18 PM »
Update for the week to January 7th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,858,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,852,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,142,000km2, an increase from -1,042,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -429,000km2, a decrease from -434,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 2nd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +50.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +64.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +49.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +41.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +63.1k/day.



The extent increase so far this January is the 18th smallest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 67.9k/day is required (at least +64.9k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 28.7k/day (less than 22.1k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 49.1k/day (gain of 37.8k/day with single day values).


145
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 04, 2017, 01:46:10 PM »
(Apologies for the delay, Christmas and travelling...)

Update for the week to December 31st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 12,506,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,608,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,042,000km2, a decrease from -1,372,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -434,000km2, a decrease from -645,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +91.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +44.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +61.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +64.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +49.5k/day.



The extent increase in December was the 2nd largest on record while the average extent was the lowest on record.




146
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 25, 2016, 02:58:44 PM »
Update for the week to December 24th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,866,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,847,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,372,000km2, an increase from -1,261,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -645,000km2, an increase from -397,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +40.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +56.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +76.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +44.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +61.2k/day.



The extent increase so far this December is the 2nd largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 100.5k/day is required (at least +44.8k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of more than 102.5k/day (more than 139.8k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a loss of 23.2k/day (loss of 25.8k/day with single day values).


147
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 19, 2016, 01:46:24 AM »
Update for the week to December 17th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,582,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,762,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,261,000km2, a decrease from -1,659,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -397,000km2, a decrease from -841,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +119.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +71.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +67.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +56.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +76.1k/day.



The extent increase so far this December is the largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 70.5k/day is required (at least +67.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of more than 31.0k/day (more than 51.1k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 8.7k/day (loss of 4.9k/day with single day values).


148
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 11, 2016, 11:28:53 PM »
Update for the week to December 10th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,747,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,046,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,659,000km2, a decrease from -1,715,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -841,000km2, an increase from -774,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +88.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +80.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +97.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +71.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +67.8k/day.



The extent increase so far this December is the 6th largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 86.9k/day is required (at least +80.2k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 19.1k/day (less than 5.4k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 45.6k/day (34.6k/day with single day values).


149
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 04, 2016, 07:16:40 PM »
Hey folks.
I've been a bit busy in recent months so I haven't had much time to post. I've started a PhD working on Arctic permafrost cliffs so I've been delving into the literature and getting to grips with some new software and whatnot.
I'll be doing some fieldwork during the next 2 summers, likely in around NW Canada and/or Alaska, so I should be able to provide some updates, pics and videos from the field in the appropriate threads.

Anywho, a few graphs showing the temperature in different heights of the atmosphere last month north of 70N.
First are the anomalies, showing just how massively warm November was this year.




Second is for the same area and heights, but with rankings - darker the red the closest to record warm, darker the green the closer to record cold



The shift in 1996 is really very clear on both graphs. More than that, the massively growing discrepency between the surface and upper air values since 1996 is quite remarkable.

What happened in 1996?

150
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 04, 2016, 03:59:32 PM »
Update for the week to December 3rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,130,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,364,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,715,000km2, a decrease from -2,061,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -774,000km2, a decrease from -1,134,000km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +133.0k/day, compared to the long term average of +83.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +81.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +80.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +97.6k/day.



The extent increase so far this December is the largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 87.2k/day is required (at least +84.8k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 36.4k/day (less than 30.2k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 56.2k/day (51.5k/day with single day values).



The extent change in November was the 2nd largest on record, while the average extent was the lowest on record.




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