Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - BornFromTheVoid

Pages: 1 ... 18 19 [20] 21 22
951
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2013 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll
« on: August 03, 2013, 04:27:27 PM »
That's 262k dropped in the last 2 days.

The 7 day extent drop is still well below average though, just 460k compared to 81-10 average of 618k.
The long term extent loss rate drops rapidly during August though, with the 7 day loss in a weeks time down to 465k, and down to 258k by months end.

952
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2013 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll
« on: August 01, 2013, 05:05:47 PM »
A small drop on the latest update, 54.6k, so we finish the month as 6th lowest.

The 7 day loss up to the 30th, was 305k, only the 4th year to record a 7 day loss of below 310k.

953
An increase of 28k for the 29th and a drop of 2k for the 30th keeps the plateau going.

We're now 6th lowest on record, and could potentially finish the month above 2005

954
Being into NCEP/NCAR today, I dumped your data in, BftV:




Remarkable! Both periods extremely low area loss, opposing atmospheric configuration.
Wonder if there are other properties involved?

A few other examples my help.

1997: Day 209 to day 216 (-34k)
1993: Day 207 to day 213 (-37k)

Other examples include 1987, 1985 and 1979, but I guess we're talking about completely different ice characteristics back then, though I suppose that's very much true even in the 90s!

955
CT area: -5k4 (after yesterday's -9k6).

Remarkable.

We have had similar late July/early August plateaus before.

Some recent examples.
2005 only dropped 64k from day 207 to day 213.
2001 only dropped 35k from day 202 to day 209

They seem to happen roughly twice per decade

956
Update for the week to July 27th

The current 1 day extent is 7,274,800km2,  while the 5 day mean is on 7,387,676km2
 
The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -1,239,170km2, a decrease from -1,292,420km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +492,600km2 last week to +517,153km2 this week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, up from 5th lowest last week.
 
The average daily loss over the last 7 days was 78.0k/day, compared to the long term average of 85.6k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of 90.5k/day.

The average long term loss over the next week is 82.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being 73.0k/day.

The extent drop so far in July is the third largest on record at 2,874,050km2, with 2007 in second (3,161,190km2) and 2009 in first (2,173,990km2)
An average daily loss of 125.2k/day is needed for the remainder of the month to achieve the largest July extent drop on record.






957

Is the melt slowing or is the cyclone dispersing ice into the Chukchi and ESS?

The average daily drop over the last 10 has been below the long term average, so while the dispersion from the storm is likely playing it's part, I think there has been a slight slow down anyway.

958
The last few days have seen the melt slow, with the rolling 7 day loss below the 81-10 average for the last 3 days.
The latest drop was 112k.

The 07, 11 and 12 average loss from the 26th to the 31st is just 56k/day, so this is a good opportunity to make up some of the 460k that we're behind.

959
Arctic sea ice / Re: Melt Ponds!
« on: July 25, 2013, 06:15:15 PM »
What are we going to call this new in-ice lake?

Lake Watts!?

960
After a drop of 175k on the latest update, here's where we stand with regard the previous minima.



We've dropped below 8 previous minima (79, 80, 82, 83, 86, 87, 88 and 96) and are within 1 million km2 of another 19.

Despite this year being slightly less dramatic than last, with just maintaining the loss rate of the last 10 days, we could be lowest on record and below 27 out of 34 previous minima before we even reach August.

961
" the ice is in slightly better condition"

I assume you mean by area and extent numbers.

It seems to me that, if this brief cyclone does do significant damage to the ice pack, it will tell us precisely that the ice this year been has actually in worse condition, even though the numbers look better.

Interesting indeed.

Nope, I mean looking at the MODIS imagery. The ice over the Beaufort, Chukchi and western central Arctic (main areas to be affected) look in better condition as this storm approaches than Chukchi, ESS and the Pacific side of the central Arctic looked with the approach of GAC12.

Given that the storm is also much weaker, I wouldn't expect the same dramatic results as last August (that storm had a central pressure <970hPa and a much larger damaging wind field)

962
Hello everybody .. this is my first post on this site and am thankful to BornFromTheVoid for recommending checking you out
 There has never been a more interesting time in man's experiment with his home. And never has so much information been so readily available on the weather and climate of our planet.
I realize I have missed the Arctic Area minimum predictions  but see I would have been in the lowest 10% of forecasts .. for the same reasons as the forecast of Arctic ice movement(5 posts} above is blood red .. permanent sea ice has been replaced with seasonal pack ice ,and after tomorrow's full moon will be at the whim of tide and wind
  The forming GAC? may be there for some time .. both GEM Canada and JMA still have it as a deep central Arctic feature at the end of their current 10 and 7 day runs .
  Is an ice free Arctic and it's consequences the prerequisite of any serious reversal of the insanity of humanity ?

                 be cause

Welcome along be cause!

Looks like the ECM is making the storm a 48-72 hour event.

t24


t48


t72


It will be interesting to see what effects it has, given that the ice is in slightly better condition and the storm ain't quite as strong as last August

963
A drop of 232k on the latest update, 3rd largest daily drop this melt season. Takes us back below the average of the last 5 years, and into 4th lowest on record for the time of year

964
Update for the week to July 20th

The current 1 day extent is 7,820,740km2,  while the 5 day mean is on 7,910,644km2
 
The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -1,292,420km2, a decrease from -1,342,190km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +432,870km2 last week to 492,600km2 this week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, the same as last week.
 
The average daily loss over the last 7 days was 81.2k/day, compared to the long term average of 88.3k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of 89.6k/day.

The average long term loss over the next week is 85.6k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being 90.5k/day.

The extent drop so far in July is the third largest on record at 2,328,110km2, with 2011 in second (2,336,270km2) and 2007 in first (2,470,070km2)
An average daily loss of 80.5k/day is needed for the remainder of the month to achieve the largest July extent drop on record.




965
A rather surprising increase on the latest update of 29k.

966
We're now 4th lowest for the time of year, and below the minima of 1980, 1983 and 1986.


967
Similar situation in Ireland Chris, the grass is dying quite quickly now. 29C today in many parts of Ireland yet again. There should be some relief next week though.


Anywho, the storm is still there of the 12z GFS run


968
A 94.1k drop yesterday, taking us to 346.8k of the 07, 11 and 12 average, and just 80.8k away from 2007.

969
Both the ECM and GFS in good agreement on the storm net week.

GFS


ECM


New NASA Model


Good thunderstorm potential in Ireland, and an Arctic storm to keep me occupied next week. Exciting times.

970
Consequences / Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 18, 2013, 08:18:03 PM »
I thought a thread to discuss the current and near term global temperatures might be useful.

To start off with, the NCDC June data has been updated, and it was the joint 5th warmest June on record, and 7th warmest year to date (0.07C above last year and 0.13C below the warmest on record, 2010). All the while, ENSO remains of the negative side of neutral
 
Quote
Global Highlights

  • The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).

  • The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record. For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the 10th warmest June on record.

  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/6

With upper ocean heat content building again across the ENSO region, I wouldn't be surprised to the next batch of ENSO forecast have us on the +ve side of neutral by Autumn, with maybe Nino developing during winter?


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Should that happen, we could potentially challenge for a top 3 year.

971
A drop of 159.9k today, taking us to 350k off the 07, 11 and 12 average, and 83k below the average of the last 5 years.




972
A drop of 121.9k puts 451k off the 07, 11 and 12 average.

It also leaves us like this compared to previous minima


973
New NSIDC update, discussing the recent rapid melt and the regional extent variation.

A change of pace
Sea ice extent retreated fairly rapidly through the first two weeks of July as a high pressure cell moved into the central Arctic, bringing warmer temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean. Ice extent remains below average on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, and is near average to locally above average in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas and along much of the Eurasian coast.



The rest is here http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/07/a-change-of-pace/

974
A drop of 111k today. This takes us past the 2 million km2 loss mark for July so far.
Just 87.9k/day is now needed to record the largest July extent drop on record.

975
A drop of 126.2k on the latest update, with the average daily loss over the last 7 days remaining above 100k/day, at 113k/day.
We're back to 4th lowest on record, but will need to maintain a loss rate of over 75k/day for the remainder of the month in order to close in on the 2007, 2011 and 2012 average (the 2011 loss rate falls to one of the lowest recorded in the 10 days of the month though)


976
I have a general question for the many contributors far more knowledgeable than me, particularly when it come to  meteorology.  Although I'm still learning, many of those charts seem more like Rorschach Tests than information I can rapidly digest.  I'm assuming I'm not the only person on this forum that feels the same way.

Would it be of value for someone to start a separate thread entitled "7- 10 Arctic Weather Forecast"?

I'm saying this because quite often comments are made and some charts provided on many of the other threads, however there is often a paucity of description along with these charts.  It's not that I'm not willing to start a thread like this, it's just that I'm not qualified to contribute to it on a regular basis.

That could be useful, but I'd suggest more of a 4-7 day forecast, as the patterns at 7-10 days will change too often to be useful in most cases.
Alternatively, people could make more detailed descriptions and perhaps annotate the charts they post in here?

977
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 15, 2013, 02:19:38 AM »
I wasn't being entirely serious! What is needed is a rover with hovercraft capabilities. I see they use hovercraft in the Arctic, but they need fairly level surfaces, whether wet or frozen.

Could do with one of these, with the typical UAV remote sensing equipment attached!


978
Update for the week to July 13th

The current 1 day extent is 8,389,280km2,  while the 5 day mean is on 8,648,404km2
 
The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -1,342,190km2, an increase from -1,035,820km2 last week.  We're currently 5th lowest on record, compared to 6th lowest last week.
 
The average daily loss over the last 7 days was 126.8k/day, compared to the long term average of 83.0k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of 97.6k/day.

The average long term loss over the next week is 88.3k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being 89.6k/day.

The extent drop so far in July is the 2nd largest on record at 1,657,940km2, second to 2007 (1,751,920km2).
An average daily loss of 95.4k/day is needed for the remainder of the month to record largest July extent on record.





EDIT: Cheers for pointing out the mistakes Vergent!

979
A massive drop today of 240.9k, making up for the previous two small drops.

We're now below the average of the last 5 years, and 4th lowest on record.

980
After another large drop of 148k, we're now within 1 million km2 of 5 previous annual minima.


981
Another 54k loss today.
I suspect that losses will begin increasing from now on as the current conditions begin dropping certain more areas below 15% concentration, especially around the Chukchi and ESS.

982
A drop of 123.5k, larger than the long term average and the average of 07, 11 and 12.

983
Just a 54k loss on today's update, below all the averages mentioned previously. It takes the 7 day loss (747,510km2) down to the lowest recorded since the week ending June 27th (711,710km2).

984
It doesn't look too likely that we'll see a significant slowdown in the melt over the next week.

Looking back over the previous July melts, the largest monthly extent drop on record is 3,374,720km2 in 2009. To beat 2009, we require an average daily loss of 94.1k for the remainder of the month, which seems achievable.
The lowest July extent drop, 2,075,790km2, occurred in 1999. To beat that, we only need to drop 35.1k/day.

Up to this point in the month, the extent loss is the largest on record at just over 1.3 million km2

985
New daily views record yesterday and a new users online record today.

The forum... it grows!

986
A drop of 150.7k today, above the long term average, the 5 year average and the average of '07, 11 and 12.



7 day sea ice loss from June 1st to August 31t


987
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 10, 2013, 12:44:50 PM »
Wipneus,

Would it be possible to take the MODIS Arctic mosaic, then overlay your pixel change images with enough transparency to see both the changed pixels colour and the visible ice below?

988
BFTV,

I think that's due to ice movement, not so much melt.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Note how the ice closes on the Laptev low concentration anomaly and moves away from Siberia.

The ice drift is certainly playing its part, but it looks like a lot of melt going on to also. The ice in the bay in the middle has almost completely gone, and despite a southward drift, the ice is opening up to the bottom right of the image rather than compacting.

989
An impressive melt over the ESS in the last while, with a big jump in the melt visible today.

Here's a gif of the last 4 days melt in the ESS from the r06c04 tile at 500m, ending today, from MODIS.


990
A loss of 96k today, which is above the long term average and the average of the last 5 years, but below the average of 2007,11 and 12.

991
Perhaps not that weird or extreme, but there's a chance Ireland could top 30C today, an occurrence that generally happens less the once per decade at official stations. What's interesting now, is that it seems likely to going to happen despite below average SSTs all around the country.
The last time we reached 30C+ was in July 2006, so a less than once in a decade warmth could occur twice in 8 years during the next few days.

992
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 08, 2013, 08:57:18 PM »
Chris,

I worked on something similar, but more more simplified, thing to yourself for my undergraduate dissertation last year.
Related to the dipole, I created an index around the Fram Strait using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data SLP for two pairs of points, seen in the image below.



I figured that to enhance sea ice export, you need the air flowing towards Fram, and from the strait itself toward the Greenland sea, helping to reduce summer sea ice extent (my understanding has come along some way since then!).

Anyway, the index worked off the monthly data, and whereby if the pressure on the western points are higher (lower) than the east, you'd get enhanced (subdued) summer export and reduced (increased) extent. So basically a pressure difference index.
Here's what I got for the Summer timeseries.



The 2007-2012 period had the highest 6 year mean for the index for June also, with this year being the first below average June since 2005.

I suspect it would be closely related to the pressure pattern your working on.

EDIT: Also, I think you'd find it hard to differentiate your pattern from the NAO loading pattern http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_loading.html

993
Another day, and the large losses have returned, this time of 186.2k. This is enough to beat 2007 for the most >1 million/week (1M/W) losses, with 2013 now having 7.

The table seems to contradict this since 2006 & 2007 show multiple weeks of >1 million/week, am I misunderstanding something?

Quote
Hi Phil. The table doesn't show any for 2006?

Sorry I misread the table, that would be 1991.

Quote
It's a little difficult to explain, but I'll give it a try. All the multiple 1M/W drops, that occurred before 2012, had been consecutive 7 day periods in each year. For example, 2007, each of the 6 1M/W periods occurred on the weeks ending July 2nd to July 7th, so it was just one strong melt period. 2012 was the first to have 2 distinct melt periods with rates of 1M/W, in June and in August.
Hope that makes sense?

Yes it does, so by a week you meant any sequence of 7 days, rather than a calendar week.
Are the 7 periods this year consecutive?

I interchanged "7 days" with "week", I should probably pick one and stick with it, but the former seemed awkward and the latter not clear enough!
This year they have all been consecutive, so you're correct on both counts.

The run will end tomorrow, unless we see a drop of well over 300k! I suspect that the next shot at recording more will be around mid month, when the large losses courtesy of the warmth and -ve AO should be in full swing

994
Another day, and the large losses have returned, this time of 186.2k. This is enough to beat 2007 for the most >1 million/week (1M/W) losses, with 2012 now have 7.


BFV,

Is that a typo? Did you mean "with 2013 now have 7"? Because in the table, it shows 2012 had four weeks of losses> 1M/W

You're right. I've fixed it now, cheers!

995
Another day, and the large losses have returned, this time of 186.2k. This is enough to beat 2007 for the most >1 million/week (1M/W) losses, with 2013 now having 7.

The table seems to contradict this since 2006 & 2007 show multiple weeks of >1 million/week, am I misunderstanding something?

Hi Phil. The table doesn't show any for 2006?
It's a little difficult to explain, but I'll give it a try. All the multiple 1M/W drops, that occurred before 2012, had been consecutive 7 day periods in each year. For example, 2007, each of the 6 1M/W periods occurred on the weeks ending July 2nd to July 7th, so it was just one strong melt period. 2012 was the first to have 2 distinct melt periods with rates of 1M/W, in June and in August.
Hope that makes sense?

996
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: July 08, 2013, 03:16:23 PM »

Forgive my confusion but at this rate of melt out are we not going to overtake 2012 soon?

How many days of this kind of break neck melt until we have over taken 2012?

Over the last 5 days, with IJIS, we've lost extent at a rate of about 118k/day, compared to 2012 which over the same time, declined at about 85k/day. This has reduced the anomaly from 514k down to 376k.
Over the next 5 days in 2012, the melt rate increased in response to warming and a +ve dipole pattern, falling by 121k/day. So maintaining our current rate of loss, we won't gain much on 2012 until after the 12th.
If we maintain the loss rate of the last 5 days for the remainder of the month, we'd pass 2012 on the 21st


997
Update for the week to July 6th

The current 1 day extent is 9,277,230km2,  while the 5 day mean is on 9,452,782km2
 
The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -1,035,820km2, an increase from -646,640km2 last week.  We're currently 6th lowest on record, compared to 8th lowest last week.
 
The average daily loss over the last 7 days was 146.0k/day, compared to the long term average of 97.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of 103.2k/day.

The average long term loss over the next week is 83.0k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being 97.6k/day.

998
The rest / Re: Other climate forums
« on: July 07, 2013, 10:54:27 PM »
Cheers guys. I'm familiar with many of the blogs and websites ye mention, but was thinking more forums like this, or perhaps how netweather was, that have a mixture of views and posters, that allows for debates between people with different stances on climate.
I find a lot of lurkers tend to go to those mixed opinion sites, and it's important to counter the denier nonsense with the actual science, and keep a scientific presence in these areas.
Climate change denial thrives on ignorance, so its important to make ignorance of climate science as difficult as possible :D

999
The rest / Re: Other climate forums
« on: July 07, 2013, 05:21:50 PM »
Cheers for those Jim, will have a gander during the evening.

I know on reddit, there is a sizeable and organised group of deniers, that arrange mass downvoting of any climate related posts on the site, especially in the "science" subreddit, that has 3.5 million subscribers.

1000
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 07, 2013, 04:47:29 PM »
I'd just like to extend my thanks to Wipneus for his work here. It's become part of my morning sea ice routine!

AFAIK the Greenland Sea cannot almost melt out because any open water created will be replaced by ice exiting the Arctic. Greenland is actually likely to be the last sea with summer ice, as in the next few years it is possible the Central Arctic can become a killing ground with only the ice escaping through Greenland surviving.

Hi dree12
The sea ice can melt out on the Greenland sea, though it doesn't happen too often. The end of summer/early Autumns of 2002 and 2003 had just a few thousand km2 of ice left in the Greenland sea at most.



Pages: 1 ... 18 19 [20] 21 22