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Messages - budmantis

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1201
Glaciers / Re: North Cascade glaciers Disastrous conditions
« on: June 07, 2016, 01:24:24 AM »
The Europeans are blanketing some of their glaciers to reduce melt as well. Although I'm an American, and a skier, I am totally blown away by the fact that they would dump salt on a glacier to condition it for skiing.

1202
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: June 07, 2016, 12:58:25 AM »
Quote
The map of composite maximum temperatures is a bit tricky Buddy. See the one below. The perfect one for Bastardi :)

Joe would photoshop the "minimum" out of your graphic.....and maximum would "magically" appear... ;)
I think we all tend to bend the facts to fit our own concept of reality, which is why this blog is so helpful.

Hey Buddy, do you mind if I ask the bartender to put my beer on your "bill"?!

1203
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 30, 2016, 04:15:06 AM »
Commenting for the first time this melt season, I have to agree with Marktime and Andreas T. about "Abbot is gone's" glib and mostly useless comments. Perhaps it is time to go back to lurking Abbot, at least until you have something informative to say!

1204
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 10, 2015, 09:42:45 PM »
Interesting I called for a potentially historic minimum and an early start to the refreeze in the beginning of August and everyone wanted to rip my head off...Right now it looks like day 244 maybe the actual minimum making it the earliest in the satellite era by one day. 1987 the minimum was set on  day 245....Interesting indeed

It'll be even more interesting in another week.

1205
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 30, 2015, 03:52:03 AM »
Looks like the "fashionable" beach road in Barrow (Alaska) disappeared, and I wonder how many republicans are left up there?

Maybe Donald Trump would be interested in building a casino in Barrow? ??? Forget about Sarah Palin, she cant see Russia from there!

1206
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 30, 2015, 03:46:59 AM »
A slightly cloudy MODIS image is now available:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/#Aug29

With a bit of luck an intrepid navigator in a motor yacht could probably make it through the remaining ice via a circuitous route. Personally I don't think that's  enough to declare the passage "open" just yet, but others may disagree!

I've been observing the arctic ice melt since 2009. This is the closest I've seen the Northwest passage to being open, without it being "officially" open.

1207
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 30, 2015, 03:39:07 AM »
I doubt much will happen at this point, based solely on my observing arctic sea ice melt since 2009, but I imagine there are far more knowledgable people on this forum that have other ideas.

1208
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 29, 2015, 05:33:08 PM »
2015 will probably drop below 2007 between now and the  2nd of September, because during that period 2007 lost only 108K.  The question remains, will 2015 be able to stay in 2nd place from that point until the bitter end????
We are currently 460K km^2 above the 2007 minimum and still dropping at around 70K km^2 per day.  With  around three weeks of melting still to go  we only need 22K km^2 per day for the rest of the season to drop below 2007. 

With the current strong melt momentum I think 2007 is going to  be blown away  long before we get to the end of melting.  Most  of the loss we have seen in the past few days is in only one quarter of the Arctic and even that  area is still  heavily fragmented.  We have a long  way to go yet.

DavidR: I have no expertise to offer, but I have observed the arctic ice melt since 2009. My intuition (for what its worth), tells me this year's melt may drop below 2007, but not by a lot.

1209
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 26, 2015, 11:06:45 PM »
Open a separate topic!  >:(

You tell them, Tony Montana! "Meet my little friend"!!

Bud

1210
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 22, 2015, 05:19:29 PM »
Predicted minimum land-fast sea ice: 0

IMHO I think its unlikely. There's landfast ice off NE Greenland that is probably going to outlast this melt season.

The landfast ice off NE Greenland has been showing signs of wanderlust. Will this break free and leave us with no landfast sea ice at all??



Nick:

I've been watching that area closely. It's shredded all to hell, looks like I may have to revise my humble opinion!

Bud

1211
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 19, 2015, 09:59:23 PM »
I wonder if they'll just turn into big Kodiak bears over time.

Maybe they'll just become Kodak bears, seeing how photogenic they are!

1212
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 16, 2015, 06:23:41 PM »
If the recent slowdown continues, 2008 could very well catch up and surpass this year, resulting in a fifth place finish for 2015.

Here are the CT area losses from this day through the annual minimum for each of the previous ten seasons, with a third column showing where 2015 would end up were it to follow each of those years from here on out, and a 4th column showing final rank:

YEAR   LOSS TO END   IF REPEATED   RANK
2014   1.0883119   2.4816721   2nd
2013   0.5946255   2.9753585   4th
2012   0.7335148   2.8364692   2nd
2011   0.5325577   3.0374263   5th
2010   0.9297531   2.6402309   2nd
2009   0.6761916   2.8937924   2nd
2008   0.6316180   2.9383660   4th
2007   0.3827111   3.1872729   6th
2006   0.5312524   3.0387316   5th
2005   0.2562065   3.3137775   6th

Note that the space between 2nd place and 6th place is very thin: 2.903M would put 2015 in 2nd, while just 3.073--about 170k higher--would leave 2015 in 6th.

It's like watching Arctic Sea Ice Roulette: round and round it goes, and where it stops, nobody knows...


Jim: It was about this time last year that I made my first post on the forum. It looked at that time that 2014 would end up finishing higher than 2005. I noticed that if this year has an equal amount of melt as 2014 going forward, it would finish in second place! I guess the last thirty days of the melt season can make a big difference after all. Bud

1213
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 16, 2015, 06:16:12 PM »
Maybe you should take a look at volume....:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20150815.png


Point taken. From a volume standpoint, this year looks a lot worse than it does versus area and extent.

1214
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 16, 2015, 03:25:50 PM »
If the recent slowdown continues, 2008 could very well catch up and surpass this year, resulting in a fifth place finish for 2015.

1215
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 16, 2015, 02:51:12 AM »
Yes, there's an area of ice that each year seems to outlast the melt season, at least in part.

1216
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 15, 2015, 11:44:54 PM »
Predicted minimum land-fast sea ice: 0

IMHO I think its unlikely. There's landfast ice off NE Greenland that is probably going to outlast this melt season.

1217
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 12, 2015, 01:33:06 AM »
I had been kind of dismissive with u, but I must say you really had spotted a weak area . . .

Nice find, but let's not encourage these artistes who are always trying to name phenomena after themselves.  :P

Agreed, look what happened with Tommy and the "Tommy Gap"!

1218
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 08, 2015, 01:28:56 AM »
It is important to use proper english grammar if you want to have an "ice" day!  8)

Espen: The Uni Bremen map shows the arctic ice being decimated, yet the the melt seems to have slowed down.

Bud

1219
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 07, 2015, 04:07:21 PM »
Perhaps he's not having an "ice" day! ;)

1220
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 05, 2015, 08:35:40 PM »
Weatherdude88:

Take some advice from a long time lurker and very rare commenter, there are some pretty sharp minds on this forum, people you would do well to listen to, as I do.

Bud

1221
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 15, 2014, 06:16:37 PM »
Hello to all:

I've been a long-time lurker on ASIB and a more recent lurker on the ASIF. The sea ice loss in 2007 really got my attention and ever since, I've been trying to learn more. I stumbled on to Neven's blog sometime in 2009.

After seeing Crandle's numbers today, I had to post a comment because I never expected to see a post 2005 year with a possible sea ice minimum higher than 2005's minimum. Perhaps it will still be less than 2005, we'll see. Being a believer in the "scientific method", I believe the so-called recoveries of 2013 and this year will be short lived, though I'd love to be proven wrong!

I'd like to give a hat-tip to Neven and to all contributors that make the blog and forum such a valuable resource, especially: Wipneus, Crandle's, Espen, Jim Hunt, Jim Petit, A-Team, Friv, and many others. Many thanks!

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