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Very slow.
Judging from the next trustable 96h, the Arctic will see rain and cloudiness over the CAB, also a really strong push of warmer air from Atlantic side / Eurasia and mild compacting winds over the Beaufort sea.
jaja.... what else, open your eyes and consult a 3-5 day forecast and then re-consider.
<Small edit. O>
2020-08-08 5.645 −115
2020-08-09 5.549 −96
Here we go.
August 8: 5,390,893 km2. Almost a century drop, down 98,161 km2.
Their graphics make it clear that even though extent drops have slowed recently, 2020 still has a good shot of keeping pace with 2012 for the remainder of the melt season.
I thought the CAB area was going up??
No it hasn't. Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.
Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.
.
<Cherry picking is not data. O>
higher resolution AMSR and Jaxa products has slowed and is now above 2019.
Very informative article.
Europe's heat wave is about to bake the Arctic:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/26/europes-heat-wave-is-about-bake-arctic/?fbclid=IwAR19d1RoGkg0USJ4dpEJBuZo48g2BRg0SDmZipI1tEpllMEHkitULXaD7Rw
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012. Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.
That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.
UH AMSR2 Beaufort sea ice area is looking robust, compared with previous years. 2020 Beaufort sea ice area is on pace to finish with the most sea ice area in the data set (post 2012). Extrapolating the final area at minimum would be 200,000 square kilometers.
Its not all going to melt out
I'd go with 100,000km2 on that chart.
The thickest MYI along the Southern region by IIRC is the mcClure straight to the Parry channel will likely not melt out.
But two of the whoi bouys show bottom melt the last 40-50 days has taken place all the way to 75N along the border of the WCAB and Beaufort.
Only showing about 1.5CM of melt a day but that is only bottom melt.
By Sept 1st about 75-100CM of bottom ice melt in the region will be enough to toast the fyi and some MYI
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012. Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.
That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.
Perhaps you overlooked the word MUST, your chart shows the usual or what often happens but that doesn not mean that it always has to be like that, especially under the current special conditions in many aspects.
So get me right, yes it's usual, i doubt the "inevitable" part for the current conditions.
Michael,
<snip>
We can argue about how much surface melting has occurred this year vs. 2012 because of the compaction....... <snip>
What compaction? I don't see any compaction to be worth mentioning. I am using a large screen high def laptop. I don't see it. Can those that keep bringing up compaction show some images or other proof? Please.
They don't see it, they simply assume that a long lasting high pressure system must have compacted (compressed) the ice or stacked it up to 10m hights, an opinion that i do not share.
CAB area is quite low not especially high as it would be in case the above mentioned assumptions were right.
The Slater 50 day probabilistic sea ice extent forecast... is showing a potential 10th place finish for NSIDC sea ice extent.
No it isn't:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#comment-340172
It is however currently showing a very early minimum
It seems that the discussion from now on will be if 2020 will be "just?" 2nd lowest or it is able to become the lowest on record.
I have to agree Paul. Right now the danger seems to be dissipating. When I first mentioned that GAC last night, I was basing it on the development I saw happening in my forecasts and the long term forecast that I posted an image of.QuoteThat storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?
And yes, another record-breaking day of sea ice area gain instead of a loss, but a lower gain.
The tide may be turning.
Gerontocrat normally uses the more appropriate 5-day average data from NSIDC.
Weatherdude88 uses 1-day data (when it suits his agenda of gains and recoveries).
A sea ice area daily gain of this size at this time of year is likely to be a record-breaker.
2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.
- 2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016
- 2020 Area is 100 k less than 2019
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,849,016 KM2
Total Change -83 k loss
For the 5-day average sea ice area loss to drop by 34k means the one-day sea ice area loss on this day must be minimal. Is the next instalment to come another swap, extent loss galloping ahead while area loss slows to a crawl?
There is an astounding lack of snow cover in Europe, and also a relative lack in America. The heat may come to the Arctic with a vengeance in the form of a very early NH Spring.
The Area Plume says - hold on, most previous years say more area losses.
On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA increased by modest 11k, the day before decreased
End of season wobbles rule, OK?....
On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA decreased by a measly 6k, .
One-day NSIDC EXTENT gain 46k, JAXA extent gain 17k
I can see evidence for Arctic Sea Ice losses not being above average.
What I can't see (given +ve SST and air temp anomalies) is the evidence to show why area and extent losses should be so much below average (with unusual increases on occasion).
