Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - weatherdude88

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:08:07 AM »
I thought the CAB area was going up??

:)


No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.


NSIDC one day sea ice area change shows a 18,000 square kilometer increase in the CAB.



The Beaufort sea and western CAB have seen periods of below freezing temperatures over the last week. The global model weather forecasts get more favorable for sea ice retention by the day.

Areas of near average surface pressure look to dominate the arctic for the next 2 weeks. The winds appear light and variable.

These next 2 weeks are going to be amazing  ;).

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 05:24:13 AM »
<Cherry picking is not data. O>

Posting a data sheet with one day NSIDC sea ice extent and area for all regions is cherry picking?

This is a data thread and relevant to the sea ice melting season. This also helps readers understand where the 5-day average could possibly be headed.

There is only certain data allowed in this thread? Why delete the data sheet?

<You do not post this regularly, only on dates of your choosing. You highlight small increases while all around show decreases. I find that to be cherry-picking. If you wish, post a chart of Beaufort area and extent, not just the last day, then it will be in context. O>

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:39:00 AM »
<Cherry picking is not data. O>

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:29:16 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.





I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 12:37:25 AM »
higher resolution AMSR and Jaxa products has slowed and is now above 2019.

High resolution extent and area now greater than 2019 for the date.









6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:55:05 PM »
Very informative article.
Europe's heat wave is about to bake the Arctic:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/26/europes-heat-wave-is-about-bake-arctic/?fbclid=IwAR19d1RoGkg0USJ4dpEJBuZo48g2BRg0SDmZipI1tEpllMEHkitULXaD7Rw

This is from 2019. The global weather models are forecasting weather favorable for sea ice retention.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:33:51 PM »
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012.  Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.

That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.

UH AMSR2 Beaufort sea ice area is looking robust, compared with previous years. 2020 Beaufort sea ice area is on pace to finish with the most sea ice area in the data set (post 2012). Extrapolating the final area at minimum would be 200,000 square kilometers.



Its not all going to melt out

I'd go with 100,000km2 on that chart.

The thickest MYI along the Southern region by IIRC is the mcClure straight to the Parry channel will likely not melt out.

But two of the whoi bouys show bottom melt the last 40-50 days has taken place all the way to 75N along the border of the WCAB and Beaufort.

Only showing about 1.5CM of melt a day but that is only bottom  melt.

By Sept 1st about  75-100CM of bottom ice melt in the region will be enough to toast the fyi and some MYI

100,000 square kilometers would put 2020 well ahead of 2012,2015,2016, 2017, and 2019 at minimum for Beaufort sea ice area (6th place, post 2012 data set).

You are predicting a 6th place finish in the Beaufort, and 1st place finish for northern hemisphere sea ice area and extent?

There is no coincidence the lowest sea ice minimums had virtually no sea ice in the Beaufort.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:11:30 PM »
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012.  Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.

That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.

UH AMSR2 Beaufort sea ice area is looking robust, compared with previous years. 2020 Beaufort sea ice area is on pace to finish with the most sea ice area in the data set (post 2012).

Extrapolating the final area at minimum would be 200,000 square kilometers.




9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:26:30 PM »
Comparing the last 2 days of AMSR2 sea ice concentrations, we can already see the start of a correction in the Central Arctic and southwestern Beaufort.

I suspect we will continue to see corrections from sensor errors, that are currently showing faux reductions of sea ice concentrations. This will be obvious in the Central Arctic and Beaufort over the next several days.






10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:02:11 PM »
High resolution extent is no longer the lowest on record for the date. 2020 is headed in the direction with the rest of the pack.




11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 03:22:29 AM »
JAXA and Uni Hamburg data show 2020 as compact, as the most compact years in the data set. NSIDC compactness has moved towards the middle of the pact.



I would be surprised if NSIDC extent finishes in the top 4 this year.

High resolution sea ice extent may no longer be the lowest in the data set within 1-day.



<Removed goading and unnecessary quotes. Focus on data please. O>

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2020, 08:28:31 PM »
For 7.22.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 4.490098 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 140,834 square kilometers from the previous day.

2020 now has the lowest sea ice area value for the date on record.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-119,271 (7.18)
-63,692 (7.19)
-84,614 (7.20)
-40,132 (7.21)
-140,834 (7.22)



13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 22, 2020, 07:33:38 PM »
For 7.21.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 4.630932 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 40,132 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-184,117 (7.17)
-119,271 (7.18)
-63,692 (7.19)
-84,614 (7.20)
-40,132 (7.21)

The 3-day trailing mean shows a loss of 62,813 square kilometers per day. It is likely the NSIDC 5-day trailing sea ice area mean will show below average losses within the next two days. NSIDC and JAXA sea ice compaction continue to increase.



14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 22, 2020, 03:21:02 AM »
For 7.20.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 4.671064 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 84,614 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-140,430 (7.16)
-184,117 (7.17)
-119,271 (7.18)
-63,692 (7.19)
-84,614 (7.20)

The 2-day trailing average shows a reduction of 74,153 square kilometers per day. The slowdown may be here.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 12:59:42 AM »




Perhaps you overlooked the word MUST, your chart shows the usual or what often happens but that doesn not mean that it always has to be like that, especially under the current special conditions in many aspects.


So get me right, yes it's usual, i doubt the "inevitable" part for the current conditions.

Compactness = Area / Extent. Various satellite sensors (NSIDC / JAXA) and their respective data, tell us 2020 is among the most compact on record.

There is no debate.

Are some on here questioning JAXA and NSIDC sea ice extent and area data? 

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 10:24:51 PM »
Michael,
<snip>
 We can argue about how much surface melting has occurred this year vs. 2012 because of the compaction.......  <snip>

What compaction? I don't see any compaction to be worth mentioning. I am using a large screen high def laptop. I don't see it. Can those that keep bringing up compaction show some images or other proof? Please.

They don't see it, they simply assume that a long lasting high pressure system must have compacted (compressed) the ice or stacked it up to 10m hights, an opinion that i do not share.

CAB area is quite low not especially high as it would be in case the above mentioned assumptions were right.


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 18, 2020, 09:35:06 PM »
For 7.17.2020, the currently posted NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area data 5-day trailing mean value is 5.230522 (pole hole adjustment) millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 114733.6 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice area 5-day trailing mean losses are above average.

The single daily value decreased 184,117 square kilometers. NSIDC sea ice area is in third place for the date.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 16, 2020, 05:49:59 PM »
For 7.15.2020, the currently posted NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area data 5 day trailing mean value is 5.508814 (pole hole adjustment) millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 46,097.7 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice area losses remain well below average.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 03:16:55 PM »
The Slater 50 day probabilistic sea ice extent forecast... is showing a potential 10th place finish for NSIDC sea ice extent.

No it isn't:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#comment-340172

It is however currently showing a very early minimum

Jim,

The Slater 50-day forecast is based on daily data. Each day the forecast is re-run. The earlier dips in the forecast where when we had sensors being tricked by melt ponds in the CAA and parts of the CAB. This model uses Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations and
Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data.

https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
 
As soon as NSIDC ice data rebounded in the CAA and parts of the CAB, the 50-day forecast predicted a higher value. The earlier dip was due to inaccurate data. I interpret the model as no early minimum with a potential 10th place finish. Perhaps it would be best to research how such models work, before making comments in the future.





20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 10:24:30 PM »
It seems that the discussion from now on will be if 2020 will be "just?" 2nd lowest or it is able to become the lowest on record.

The Slater 50 day probabilistic sea ice extent forecast is not quite at the average date for northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum (September 2nd). The model is showing a potential 10th place finish for NSIDC sea ice extent.


21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 18, 2020, 11:08:57 PM »

I have to agree Paul. Right now the danger seems to be dissipating. When I first mentioned that GAC last night, I was basing it on the development I saw happening in my forecasts and the long term forecast that I posted an image of.

Quote
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?

Here are the four model runs, prior to the 6.17.2020 18Z GFS run that was posted.









Here is the 6.17.2020 18Z GFS run that was posted.



The previous model runs show significantly different outcomes, than the run that was posted in model 'fantasy' land to make your claim.

Even the 18Z GEFS (GFS Ensemble) from 6.17.2020 shows an area of weak low pressure for the same time period. This is an indication that the ensembles did not have strong agreement with the operational run.





   

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 11, 2020, 11:09:58 PM »
For 6.10.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.187098 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 5,231 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-21,230 (June 6th)
-26,022 (June 7th)
-131,266 (June 8th)
-231,367 (June 9th)
+5,231 (June 10th)

The NSIDC 5-day trailing mean volatility may continue.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 05, 2020, 09:22:38 PM »
And yes, another record-breaking day of sea ice area gain instead of a loss, but a lower gain.
The tide may be turning.


Indeed,

For 6.4.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.651397 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 70,824 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

+86,619 (5.31)
+53,058 (6.1)
+4,992 (6.2)
-53,089 (6.3)
-70,824 (6.4)

The Central Arctic is nearly full with high concentration ice. The NSIDC 5-day trailing mean should show near average sea ice area losses within 3 days.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 03, 2020, 08:01:13 PM »
For 6.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.775282 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 4,964 square kilometers from the previous day.

For 6.2.2020, the daily value is 98,188 square kilometers more than the 5.24.2020 value (10 days).

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

+43,574 (5.29)
-35,428 (5.30)
+86,619 (5.31)
+53,058 (6.1)
+4,964 (6.2)

Four out of the past 5 daily values have recorded an increase compared with the previous day.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 02, 2020, 07:50:49 PM »
Gerontocrat normally uses the more appropriate 5-day average data from NSIDC.
Weatherdude88 uses 1-day data (when it suits his agenda of gains and recoveries).

A sea ice area daily gain of this size at this time of year is likely to be a record-breaker.

The one day data sets give invaluable where the trailing 5-day average is headed. Especially if there are varying considerable 1-day values about to drop off the 5 day trailing mean.

We are able to see the trailing 5-day average has had 2 consecutive days of sea ice area gains in prime sea ice melt season. The significant change in the 5-day trailing mean was inevitable given the substantial sea ice loss daily values dropping off combined with the record gains in the most recent daily values.

Additionally, there are other member that post different 1-day sea ice data values.

No agenda, just raw data.   

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 02, 2020, 02:53:48 PM »
The record breaking NSIDC sea ice area gains continue. This is the third record breaking daily increase in the last 8 days (5.25,5.31, and 6.1).



Additionally, global weather models continue to forecast neutral to slightly favorable conditions for ice retention. They have been trending more to the slightly favorable side of the envelope. Weak pressure gradients, mild SLP anomaly, ridging over the western arctic, and troughing at times over the central and eastern arctic look to be the theme over then next 10 days.







 


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 01, 2020, 07:39:15 PM »
2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.                  
- 2020 Area is 225 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 100 k less than 2019
         

Another significant increase in the daily northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value. 2020 now has more sea ice area than 2019 for the date.



The 5.31.2020 value is now 26,753 square kilometers of sea ice area more than the 5.24.2020 value.

With average NSIDC sea ice area losses, the trailing 5-day average will show 2019 zoom past 2020 within the next 4 days.

This is also the 2nd daily record gain in NSIDC sea ice area, in the last 7 days (5.25 & 5.31).

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 29, 2020, 09:09:19 PM »
The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor shows the Beaufort and Western CAB sea ice concentration increasing significantly in parts of these regions.




I suspect the same correction will be made on the Russian side, this coming week.

The global models are in forecasting agreement that weather conditions will be neutral to slightly favorable for northern hemisphere sea ice retention over the next 2 weeks.




29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 27, 2020, 09:43:02 PM »
For 5.26.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.699547 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 37,387 square kilometers from the previous day.

For 5.26, the daily value is 22,453 square kilometers more than the 5.24 value.

Even with average losses over the next 3 days, the NSIDC 5 day trailing sea ice area metric will show losses significantly below average.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 04:55:30 AM »
A large portion of western CAB has greater than 200 cm of snow depth on 05.26.2020.




Total snow mass for the northern hemisphere (excluding mountains) is anomalously high.



The majority of the anomaly is at high latitudes. This will lead to a slow high arctic sea ice melt season. Certain areas of the arctic may experience some periods of anomalously high 2M temperatures until some of this record breaking snow pack melts.



31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 26, 2020, 07:24:34 PM »
For 5.25.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.736833 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 65,683 square kilometers from the previous day.

For 5.25, this is also the largest single daily increase of NSIDC sea ice area on record.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 26, 2020, 04:14:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,849,016 KM2         

Total Change   -83    k   loss
      
For the 5-day average sea ice area loss to drop by 34k means the one-day sea ice area loss on this day must be minimal. Is the next instalment to come another swap, extent loss galloping ahead while area loss slows to a crawl?

NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area raw daily values show the following losses VS. the previous day:

5.21.2020 29,394 square kilometers
5.22.2020 177,901 square kilometers
5.23.2020 116,908 square kilometers
5.24.2020 159,348 square kilometers

The four-day average shows a loss of 120,888 square kilometers of sea ice area per day.

The 5.25 value should show a significant gain in sea ice area VS. the previous day, when the single daily value data set updates.

We may be at a start of a sensor correction for NSIDC sea ice area data.



33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 26, 2020, 03:23:48 PM »
For 5.25.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 11.94 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 9,000 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice extent is in 5th place for the date. 2020 now has more sea ice extent than 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for the date.

Over the past 4 days, NSIDC sea ice extent has decreased a total of 18,000 square kilometers.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 09, 2020, 04:07:26 PM »
The NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area daily values show big gains over the last 4 days.

For 2.9.2020, the raw daily value is 12.985 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 61,496 square kilometers from the previous day.

The last 4 days have now seen increases from the previous day of 72,109, 148,507, 52,689, and 61,496 square kilometers of sea ice area (334,801 square kilometers in total) respectively.

We currently have significant freezing momentum.

The 2017 freezing season had a maximum sea ice area value of 12.837 millions of square kilometers on 3.6.2017. We are already 147,686 square kilometers above the 2017 freezing season single daily maximum sea ice area value.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 06, 2020, 01:13:45 PM »
Northern hemisphere snow cover is well below average this winter.



However, the snow water equivalent (the total volume) is significantly above the 1998-2011 average.



The higher latitude regions that have snow cover, have a lot of it.




As we approach the end of the 2019/2020 freezing season, we may have more ice and snow volume, in harder to melt areas at higher latitudes, than all years in the previous decade.

There is an astounding lack of snow cover in Europe, and also a relative lack in America. The heat may come to the Arctic with a vengeance in the form of a very early NH Spring.

To the contrary, we may have an extended 2019/2020 freezing season. The 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season may get off to a slow start.

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 03, 2020, 06:48:27 PM »
For 2.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 14.42 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 116,000 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice extent is in 15th place for the date. 2020 has more sea ice extent than 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the date.

The next 4 closest years are 2009, 2008, 1996, and 1991. In 3 days, 2009 will have 24,000 square kilometers less sea ice extent, than the 2.2.2009 value. If 2020 gains more than 160,000 square kilometers over the next 3 days, we will fall to 16th place for the date.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 07, 2019, 05:29:25 PM »
The Area Plume says - hold on, most previous years say more area losses.

The single daily NSIDC sea ice area value for 9.6 is 3,012,376 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment).
 
This is significant gain of 52,449 square kilometers from the previous day. We are now 111,973 square kilometers above the 9.4 NSIDC sea ice area minimum value.

The 2019 NSIDC sea ice area melting season has concluded. We are now in the freezing season. Historically, we would need anomalous sea ice area losses to extend the sea ice area melting season.

If you remove 9.4 from the daily NSIDC area data set, 8.24 would have been the lowest area value for the 2019 melting season.

On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA increased by modest 11k, the day before decreased

Even with the 3 oldest days showing area losses, the 5 day average increased by "11k".  There is going to be a significant increases in the 5 day trailing average starting tomorrow, as the older days fall off.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 06, 2019, 10:36:07 PM »
End of season wobbles rule, OK?....
On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA decreased by a measly 6k, .
One-day NSIDC EXTENT gain 46k, JAXA extent gain 17k


The single daily NSIDC sea ice area value for 9.5 is 2,959,927 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). 

This is a significant gain of 59,524 square kilometers from the previous day. This increase in the daily value, shows consistency with the sea ice gains for JAXA and NSIDC extent values.

If you remove 9.4 from the daily NSIDC area data set, 8.24 would have the lowest area value for the current melting season.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 30, 2019, 08:06:40 PM »
I can see evidence for Arctic Sea Ice losses not being above average.
What I can't see (given +ve SST and air temp anomalies) is the evidence to show why area and extent losses should be so much below average (with unusual increases on occasion).

In my subjective view, the answer is simple.

From the start of this melt season, we had record breaking anomalous ridging and warmth over the arctic. The conditions where so anomalous, we saw record sea ice extent and area retreat through August in the peripheral and easier to melt areas. The pattern was also exporting and compacting some of the sea ice at high latitudes.

Some experienced members mentioned throughout the melt season 'The central pack was not looking like it would set a new record'. Towards the end of the melt season, we saw a calming down or reversal of the pattern. There were some areas of sea ice that just melted out, that cooled down significantly, which previously had record breaking heat for months. Additionally, these same higher latitude areas that just melted, also now had reduced solar insolation. What remained was higher latitude and more difficult to melt sea ice.

The arctic is a big area. The dynamics this year where extreme, in melting easier lower latitude sea ice in certain regions of the arctic, and not the central pack. Different weather patterns and dynamics are needed to melt more of the central pack.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 04:17:05 PM »
There was a daily NSIDC sea ice area loss of 17,585 square kilometers. The daily value (not 5 day trailing mean) for 8.29 is 2,981,805 (3,010,805 with pole hole adjustment) square kilometers.

Is this a start of the end of the stall?

We are now 104,378 square kilometers above the August 24th lowest value for the 2019 northern hemisphere melting season.




41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 03:05:51 PM »
For 8.29, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.647 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 15,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is now in fourth place for the date.

2019 now has 956,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 140,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016, 8,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2015. 2019 now has 48,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, 69,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 7 days in the data set. We are now 19,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

If 2019 does not lose at least 65,000 square kilometers over the next 2 days, we will fall to 6th place for the date.

If 2019 loses more than 65,000 square kilometers of sea ice, but less than 117,000 square kilometers over the next 2 days, we will fall to 5th place for the date.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 29, 2019, 02:54:33 PM »

For 8.28, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.662 millions of square kilometers. This is an decrease of 21,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is still in third place for the date.

2019 now has 904,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 42,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016. 2019 now has 31,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2015, 61,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 137,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 6 days in the data set. We are now 34,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

2019 could fall to 6th place in the next 2 days, if the trend continues.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 29, 2019, 09:57:35 AM »
From the daily Bremen ASMR2 6.25 km grid, there has been a significant expansion of cryosphere in the Beautfort and East Siberian seas. The area near the Laptev sea looks more solid, with possible addition gains.

It appears there is a noticeable extent reduction on the Atlantic front (however, the pack looks more solid).



44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 28, 2019, 03:02:44 PM »
For 8.27, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.683 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 29,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is now in third place for the date.

2019 now has 898,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 148,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016. 2019 now has 147,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, 155,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 5 days in the data set. We are now 55,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

2019 could fall to 5th place in the next 3 days, if the trend continues.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »
For 8.26, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area value is 2,945,457 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is an decrease of 25,863 square kilometers.

2019 NSIDC sea ice area is now in third place for the date. 2016 is currently undergoing tremendous losses, and appears to be long gone.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 02:51:06 PM »
For 8.26, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.654 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 25,000 square kilometers.

2019 now has 748,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 48,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2016, 146,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 189,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum. We are now 26,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.



47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 12:40:49 PM »
The 0Z ECMWF looks favorable for ice retention throughout the 10 day forecast period. This period looks to be dominated by weak low pressure over the Canadian Arctic Basin / Central Arctic, with variable weak to moderate strength high pressure throughout the rest of the arctic.

There is the occasional warm air incursion, however you could not ask for a much better forecast for ice retention, especially this time of the year.

The 6Z GFS does show an intense low pressure area developing by day 6. The medium / long range forecast can and will change.










48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 11:12:44 AM »
edit: JAXA loaded, however the data was not updated for 8.26 ; Thanks colchonero

For 8.25, the JAXA northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4,382,473 square kilometers. This is a decrease of 8,224 square kilometers.

2019 now has 646,163 square kilometers more of sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 263,221 square kilometers less than 2016 and 264,128 square kilometers less than 2007.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:51:21 AM »
I prefer to look at 4 km Masie area it is far more accurate than the 25 km resolution data.

 MASIE data is an adjusted value, in an easier to use format, than the initial IMS data set. 

Quote
The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_faq

The human influence can make it unreliable when comparing to previous melting seasons.

Regardless, looking at 4K MASIE data, 2012 loses a monstrous 950,244 square kilometers of sea ice over the next 6 days. By comparison 2019 has lost 162,148 square kilometers of sea ice in the past 6 days.

MASIE data will likely show 2019 falling significantly behind 2012 in the next week.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:16:54 AM »

Glad they're soothing... ;)

Keep in mind that CAB area does continue to decline, and is easily near-record, competing with only 2012 and 2016, at least by Wipneus' method. Extent is fickle, and in the short-term can have more to do with compaction / dispersal than with the amount of ice present. It has even been suggested that high extent / low area, while not as sexy, may be the worst possible finish vis-a-vis the future health of the pack (by reducing heat escape).

It appears from the daily Bremen ASMR2 6.25 km grid, there has been a solidifying of the central pack from 8.25.

Expect an uptick on the CAB graph during the update in 3 hours.


Pages: [1] 2 3