Messages

151

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season

« on: July 23, 2015, 03:36:19 AM »

One can only guess for the rest of the season, based on the past behaviour I suspect the AD will return. I don't think we will see a stall through the whole of August.

A prolonged arctic dipole is unlikely due to current AMO (American Multidecadal Oscillation) values being colder then previous melting seasons. It has been proposed that the AMO plays a significant role in forcing summer circulation anomalies. For example: Sutton and Dong, 2012

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data  (monthly AMO values)

152

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season

« on: July 23, 2015, 03:11:20 AM »

Air temperatures are plummeting above 80 north.

153

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Nino?

« on: November 14, 2014, 02:35:40 PM »

The ENSO forecasting skill of NOAA for the Spring season is almost zero. in addition the IRI/CPC ENSO Consensus forecast which NOAA uses for its ENSO probabilities shows an anomaly of around +0.5 Celsius. I would put zero stock in the non PDF corrected CFSv2 ENSO forecast.

tell us whether such corrections are frequent at that site (or just illuminate us as to what is going on with this discrepancy)?

Meteorologist and the majority of the folks in these forums also do not realize the CFSv2 forecast that they have been posting on forums or on their websites is not the models official forecast. When you model any real world problem you need to map the observed PDF to the forecast PDF to make an accurate forecast. (You need the raw model output to start with before you can correct it.)

The difference is bolded.

154

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?

« on: November 09, 2014, 12:48:51 AM »

Personally, I can't believe I'm sitting here one year later watching take off.
And now I'll have to stick around. If this is the future, the next year will be even more fascinating than this one.

The fact of the matter in reality the probability of an official El Niño is now less likely then anytime in the last 12 months. (CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast; And some folks and meteorologist are acting like it is the highest) They need to learn to ignore the background noise. In NOAA's blog update they sound much less confident and are already starting to make excuses. If you read through the previous entries they have a much higher confidence and are trying to make excuses why an El Niño has not materialized as of yet. The ONI value for ASO was 0.2. Meteorologist and the majority of the folks in these forums also do not realize the CFSv2 forecast that they have been posting on forums or on their websites is not the models official forecast. When you model any real world problem you need to map the observed PDF to the forecast PDF to make an accurate forecast. (You need the raw model output to start with before you can correct it.) The model posted is the PDF corrected. There will be many excuses upcoming in the next several months.

www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/details-november-enso-forecast-slip-slidin%E2%80%99-away

Prediction: In NOAA's December update probabilities will fall below 50% and they will push the start of El Niño to Spring 2015.