Messages

51

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 30, 2019, 03:05:51 PM »

For 8.29, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.647 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 15,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is now in fourth place for the date.

2019 now has 956,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 140,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016, 8,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2015. 2019 now has 48,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, 69,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 7 days in the data set. We are now 19,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

If 2019 does not lose at least 65,000 square kilometers over the next 2 days, we will fall to 6th place for the date.

If 2019 loses more than 65,000 square kilometers of sea ice, but less than 117,000 square kilometers over the next 2 days, we will fall to 5th place for the date.

52

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 29, 2019, 02:54:33 PM »

For 8.28, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.662 millions of square kilometers. This is an decrease of 21,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is still in third place for the date.

2019 now has 904,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 42,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016. 2019 now has 31,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2015, 61,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 137,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 6 days in the data set. We are now 34,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

2019 could fall to 6th place in the next 2 days, if the trend continues.

53

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: August 29, 2019, 09:57:35 AM »

From the daily Bremen ASMR2 6.25 km grid, there has been a significant expansion of cryosphere in the Beautfort and East Siberian seas. The area near the Laptev sea looks more solid, with possible addition gains.

It appears there is a noticeable extent reduction on the Atlantic front (however, the pack looks more solid).

54

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 28, 2019, 03:02:44 PM »

For 8.27, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.683 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 29,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is now in third place for the date.

2019 now has 898,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 148,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016. 2019 now has 147,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, 155,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 5 days in the data set. We are now 55,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

2019 could fall to 5th place in the next 3 days, if the trend continues.

55

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 27, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »

For 8.26, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area value is 2,945,457 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is an decrease of 25,863 square kilometers.

2019 NSIDC sea ice area is now in third place for the date. 2016 is currently undergoing tremendous losses, and appears to be long gone.

56

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 27, 2019, 02:51:06 PM »

For 8.26, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.654 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 25,000 square kilometers.

2019 now has 748,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 48,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2016, 146,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 189,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum. We are now 26,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

57

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: August 27, 2019, 12:40:49 PM »

The 0Z ECMWF looks favorable for ice retention throughout the 10 day forecast period. This period looks to be dominated by weak low pressure over the Canadian Arctic Basin / Central Arctic, with variable weak to moderate strength high pressure throughout the rest of the arctic.

There is the occasional warm air incursion, however you could not ask for a much better forecast for ice retention, especially this time of the year.

The 6Z GFS does show an intense low pressure area developing by day 6. The medium / long range forecast can and will change.

58

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 27, 2019, 11:12:44 AM »

edit: JAXA loaded, however the data was not updated for 8.26 ; Thanks colchonero

For 8.25, the JAXA northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4,382,473 square kilometers. This is a decrease of 8,224 square kilometers.

2019 now has 646,163 square kilometers more of sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 263,221 square kilometers less than 2016 and 264,128 square kilometers less than 2007.

59

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: August 27, 2019, 07:51:21 AM »

I prefer to look at 4 km Masie area it is far more accurate than the 25 km resolution data.

 MASIE data is an adjusted value, in an easier to use format, than the initial IMS data set. 

The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_faq

The human influence can make it unreliable when comparing to previous melting seasons.

Regardless, looking at 4K MASIE data, 2012 loses a monstrous 950,244 square kilometers of sea ice over the next 6 days. By comparison 2019 has lost 162,148 square kilometers of sea ice in the past 6 days.

MASIE data will likely show 2019 falling significantly behind 2012 in the next week.

60

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: August 27, 2019, 07:16:54 AM »

Glad they're soothing...

Keep in mind that CAB area does continue to decline, and is easily near-record, competing with only 2012 and 2016, at least by Wipneus' method. Extent is fickle, and in the short-term can have more to do with compaction / dispersal than with the amount of ice present. It has even been suggested that high extent / low area, while not as sexy, may be the worst possible finish vis-a-vis the future health of the pack (by reducing heat escape).

It appears from the daily Bremen ASMR2 6.25 km grid, there has been a solidifying of the central pack from 8.25.

Expect an uptick on the CAB graph during the update in 3 hours.

61

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 26, 2019, 03:19:34 PM »

For 8.25, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area value is 2,971,320 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is an decrease of 20,203 square kilometers.

2019 is now only 38,896 square kilometers less than 2016. 2019 will likely fall to third place for the 8.26 value. 2019 would need to lose 32,097 square kilometers for 8.26, to keep the pace.

If 2019 does not lose 194,668 square kilometers (64,889 square kilometers / day) over the next 3 days, we will quickly fall into third place for the date.

62

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 26, 2019, 03:00:01 PM »

For 8.25, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.679 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 11,000 square kilometers.

2019 now has 767,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012. 2019 now has 104,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2016, 114,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 161,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date.

We have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen three consecutive days of gains in the data set. We are now 51,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value.

2019 could fall to 5th place in the next week.

63

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 25, 2019, 04:18:16 PM »

2016 loses 299,415 square kilometers of sea ice area over the next 4 days (74,853 square kilometers / day). 2019 needs to lose 214,871 square kilometers over the next 4 days to keep the pace (53,717 square kilometers / day).

It is likely 2019 will fall to the third lowest northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value for the date, in the next 4 days.

64

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: August 18, 2019, 03:25:51 PM »

Ice continues to be transported into the Beaufort which has slow the decline in extent. You can see the effects of transport into the Greenland Sea as well.

This was last updated on August 7th (11 days ago).

65

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 30, 2019, 03:01:20 PM »

The NSIDC sea ice area value for 7.29, is 4,324,853 square kilometers. This is a decrease of 51,042 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice area is currently the second lowest on record for the date. If the current rate of losses (average for the last week) continue, 2019 will fall to the third lowest NSIDC area value on 8.1 (2016 and 2012).

66

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 30, 2019, 02:47:29 PM »

The NSIDC sea ice extent value for 7.29, is 6.318 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 87,000 square kilometers.

NSIDC sea ice extent is currently the lowest on record for the date. 2019 now has a 160,000 square kilometers lead on 2012.

67

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: July 30, 2019, 02:30:13 PM »

BONUS: I've developed a way to convert JAXA<>NSIDC when one or the other is missing. Since NSIDC comes in much later, we can have some Fun With Numbers: Calling the NSIDC for 7/29 at 6.46M km sq.

The 7.28 NSIDC sea ice extent value was 6.405 millions of square kilometers. Are you predicting an increase of 55 thousand square kilometers for 7.29? Or is this prediction, the five day trailing average for 7.29, will produce a value of 6.46 millions of square kilometers? It seems a bit superfluous to predict a 5 day trailing average, rather than the daily value.

68

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: July 01, 2019, 03:34:55 PM »

hyperbole replaced by hyperbollocks ! If weatherdud would only look at Gerontocrat's posting 'the inner basin is still leading' .. b.c.

Right, because seas such as the Laptev that are in the "inner basin", that have a significant effect now, will have a greater effect on basin wide values come September (sarcasm).

69

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: July 01, 2019, 02:44:37 PM »

Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent. We may not end up in the top 5 in a sea ice area metric (looking at UH AMSR2 and NSIDC daily data and extrapolating).

The regions that will matter at the end of the 2019 melt season are the Central Arctic Basin, East Siberian sea, Beautfort sea, Greenland sea, and Canadian Archipelago.

For the most part, we are lagging the highest melt years in these regions (There are 5 years that lead 2019 in all these areas combined).

There is too much high latitude ice in the critical regions. All the subjective interpretation of data will not translate to reality, no matter how many members reiterate it.

By the end of the first week of August, it will become evident that 2019 will be ordinary, as it relates to sea ice minimums over the last decade.

70

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 24, 2019, 02:09:53 PM »

UH AMSR2 data is showing more high latitude sea ice extent and area in the arctic basin, than the highest melt years.


UH AMSR2 CAB extent


UH AMSR2 CAB area

71

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 24, 2019, 01:58:28 PM »

Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is now the fifth lowest value in the data set. For 6.23, the daily value is 7,787,023 kilometers squared. There was a loss of 102,855 kilometers squared from the previous date.

2019 now has 236,390 kilometers squared more than 2012, 32,029 kilometers squared more than 2010, 9,356 kilometers squared more than 2007, and 8,144 more than 2016.

edit: gerontocrat was able to answer my question on the Central Arctic sea disparity for the sub 2008 data set. For my posts on 2007 sea ice area, I should of been adding 310,000 kilometers squared to the final value when all seas had been added for the pole hole adjustment.

72

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 24, 2019, 03:36:40 AM »

Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is the fourth lowest value in the data set. For 6.22, the daily value is 7,889,878 kilometers squared. There was a loss of 82,849 kilometers squared from the previous date.

2019 now has 293,437 kilometers squared more sea ice area than 2007, 259,734 kilometers squared more than 2012, 4,313 kilometers squared more than 2016. Losses continue to be below average.

The next closest year is 2010, which has a 36,358 kilometers squared lead.
If the sea ice area loss for 6.23 is less than 110,999 kilometers squared, 2019 will have the 5th lowest daily value for 6.23.

The highest melt years had significant late June area cliffs, where 2019 has had a period of below average sea ice area losses.

Why does NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area data, show less sea ice area for the sub 2008 data set than the post 2007 data set? The data set shows 2019 has 471,675 kilometers squared more sea ice area in the CA than 2007. The only logical explanation is NSIDC redrew the sea boundaries for the post 2007 data?

73

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 21, 2019, 03:24:31 PM »

Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is still the third lowest value in the data set. For 6.20, the daily value is 8,039,945 kilometers squared. There was a loss of 67,579 kilometers squared from the previous date.

2019 now has 142,879 kilometers squared more of sea ice area than 2007, and 264,543 kilometers squared more than 2012. Losses continue to be below average.

The next closest year is 2016, which has a 66,540 kilometers squared lead.

NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 5th lowest for 6.20, with a value of 10.427 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2016.

74

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 20, 2019, 09:33:33 PM »

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,136,524  km2

Total Area           8,136,524    km2       -273,462    km2   <   2010's average. -419,855    k   <   2018 -938,256    k   <   2000's average.           Area loss 66 k, 43 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day. Total area 2nd lowest (again) (16 k less than 2016, and 263 k greater than 2012). 2012 is still the front runner as regards area now.

Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 is now in third place with respect to sea ice area. For 6.19, NSIDC sea ice area has a daily value of 8,107,524 kilometers squared.

2019 now has more than 57,800 square kilometers of sea ice area than 2007, and 263,273 square kilometers more than 2012.

75

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 18, 2019, 04:44:28 PM »

NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ?

extent is not a good measurement at this time of the year IMO, area often drops like a stone while extent is dropping less or growing or vice versa. compaction at times is higher and at times is lower, so what.

if it's raining today or this week one would not suggest a trend towards rainforests. disconnected data depending on the time of the year only produce false impressions, a strategy  that is often used by liars, cheaters, scamsters & deniers.

a long winter in nova scotia made my friend who lives there say: can't see much of any warming, while it's called "global warming", neither canadian nor nova scotian warming LOL

then look at the gain in okhotsk below, it did not happen, no freezing temps around there and wam waters already.

if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it

This is a thread for sea ice area and extent data. Should no one post any extent or area data in this thread? You do not seem to have an issue with other data that is posted here.

One could argue NSIDC sea ice extent could be the most important data set we have, due to the historical record to compare apples to apples, and the possibility of area flashing back due to sensors counting melt ponds as open water.

This is the whole purpose of this thread. Perhaps you prefer to see certain data sets, at certain times of the year, based on your subjective point of view?

This is not the time or place for that.

76

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 18, 2019, 03:55:59 PM »

NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

77

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 15, 2019, 07:46:59 PM »

For 6.14., NSIDC sea ice extent is now in 5th place with a value of 10.842 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 now has greater sea ice extent for the date than 2018, 2016, 2012, and 2010. There have now been 3 straight days of gains in the data set.

One more day of gains, or a loss of less than 27,000 kilometers squared, will put us in seventh place for 6.15.

78

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 14, 2019, 09:05:59 PM »

Cyclones dispersing the ice (especially in the Beaufort) also play a role, I think.

Looking at the last 3 days of NSIDC Beaufort sea ice extent and area data, there has been an area increase of 786 kilometers squared, and an extent increase of 449 kilometers squared.

79

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 13, 2019, 02:21:27 AM »

I think the confusion stems from the fact that a climate change denier is muddling up the threads with BS representations of how the melt season is progressing, cherry picking the most limited representations and then saying "oh this season is not bad at all". I think Neven should ban him as he is not here in good faith. I have been informed by other posters that he is indeed a denier who posts the same BS at other message boards.

It amazes me how every melting season you predict a new record minimum, and when it does not happen you go silent.

Then when I post some data and claim this season 'will not end up in the bottom 3' you act like a butt hurt baby, since you cannot process any data that does not fall in line with your wish casting of a new record arctic sea ice minimum.

If you used more of your mental capacity on learning, perhaps you would understood the context of the above area conversation, which had nothing to do with my earlier post.

80

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 12, 2019, 08:46:47 PM »

I think he is a denier and you are just giving him more air by responding. The graph in the previous post shows we are two weeks ahead of any other year in terms of current core extent.

Area is more telling than extent. For 6.11.2019 NSIDC sea ice area for the (Beaufort + Central Arctic + Chukchi + East Siberian Sea +  Laptev Sea) added together gives us an area of:

2016 5,890,973 square kilometers
2012 5,962,622 square kilometers
2019 5,977,631 square kilometers

2019 is currently in 3rd place for the NSIDC sea ice area.

81

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 12, 2019, 07:53:38 PM »

AMSR2 CAB and NSIDC CA ice area look robust. There may be a significant slow down in basin wide losses during July, when the more vulnerable areas of the ice pack have melted out.









 

82

Arctic background / Re: Solar cycle effects on barometric pressure in polar regions

« on: June 12, 2019, 07:48:21 PM »

Well then if that is what they say, the current conditions seem to be the opposite of their conclusions.

If you are referring to specific latitudes outside the polar region during northern hemisphere summer, I would concur. However, this is a forum that focuses on the cryosphere, that is indeed located at high latitudes.

83

Arctic background / Re: Solar cycle effects on barometric pressure in polar regions

« on: June 12, 2019, 04:42:44 AM »

I'll leave this thread open, for as long as the solar stuff doesn't go in the wrong direction, but given that a link is posted to a paper from 1921, I'm moving it to the Arctic Background category.

Christ! 34 years before I was born. All of the scientists involved in the research are long since dead, I presume.

The most relevant reading to help us determine a proper approach to this research would be...

"The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" by Thomas S. Kuhn

The initial source from the Journal of Geophysical Research is from 2008.

84

Arctic background / Re: Solar cycle effects on barometric pressure in polar regions

« on: June 12, 2019, 04:39:28 AM »

I also would note that both of the quotes above are related to winter conditions.  We are now in the melt season so I'm not sure what the rational behind this thread even is 🤔.

"In both the model and observations, the greatest correlations with the solar cycle during this season are in the Northern (summer) hemisphere."

85

Arctic background / Re: Solar cycle effects on barometric pressure in polar regions

« on: June 12, 2019, 04:37:17 AM »

I could not get the first link to open

It opens faster on a desktop browser. Here is another link to the same paper, to access faster on your mobile device.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010114

86

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 11, 2019, 09:21:59 PM »

NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area is now the highest value in the data set for 6.10 with a daily value of 3,093,797 kilometers squared.

Isn't the good area in central arctic caused by the fact ice is deported towards Greenland and Barents seas, filling areas where ice usually melts ?

Sure, there is more ice that is being exported towards the Greenland and Barents seas. However, there is also more ice compacted at higher latitudes that will be difficult to melt as a result of the anticyclonic weather pattern the arctic has been in.

There are multiple different aspects from this weather event. Both positive and negative as it relates to the upcoming minimum. To achieve a historic minimum you need different weather patterns at specific times throughout the melt season, that coincide with different events in the arctic. It is not as simple as we had this weather pattern for x time, so it will only produce this one effect, and we will now hit a record minimum.

87

Arctic background / Solar cycle effects on barometric pressure in polar regions

« on: June 11, 2019, 08:53:08 PM »

Let's discuss differences in barometric pressure at polar latitudes, during different stages of the solar cycle.

"The magnitude of the change in the troposphere is large enough to
alter sea level pressure fields such that a more positive
winter Southern Annual Mode (lower pressure at higher
latitudes) is produced in about 70% of the cases (especially
with climatological and historical SST). The sea level
pressure differences are on the order of 4 mb at high
southern latitudes"

"This effect, as well as the winter zonal
wind change descending into the troposphere, is more
consistent in the Southern Hemisphere during June –August
then in the Northern Hemisphere for December–February,
most likely owing to the greater planetary wave forcing and
inherent variability during Northern Hemisphere winter"

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Rind_ri07700f.pdf


Page 166 starts "Variations In Air Pressure And In Solar Activity"

https://books.google.com/books?id=yV81i_hopSwC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false

88

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 11, 2019, 07:02:47 PM »

Is this going to be a record year for sea ice retention dude88 ? b.c.

No, sea ice extent and area values will not be in the bottom 3 for the minimum either. The constant anticyclonic weather pattern has compacted sea ice at high latitudes.

This will become especially evident, as sea ice extent and area losses will stall later this melt season when the lower latitude sea ice has melted out.

It should come as no surprise that this early spring and start of summer has been dominated by anticyclone, considering we are at the start of the solar minimum.

There has been research that concludes during the solar minimum, the summer melting season at polar latitudes ‘barometric pressure is higher’ than during other intervals of the solar cycle.
It appears we will now switch to a regime of low pressure over the arctic. I am skeptical it will last longer than several weeks.

I started a new thread, so we do not continue off topic.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2755.0.html

89

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 11, 2019, 06:08:44 PM »

NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area is now the highest value in the data set for 6.10 with a daily value of 3,093,797 kilometers squared.

90

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season

« on: June 11, 2019, 01:15:08 AM »

Hi res Arctic Basin extent looks as though its heading into uncharted territory.

It still does. What's more Basin area seems poised to do likewise:

Central Arctic Basin area, the most important region for the upcoming sea ice minimum, is breaking away from the post 2012 pack. Just not in the direction most on here thought it would.

91

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season

« on: September 28, 2018, 08:42:24 PM »

Profuse assumptions are being made. We cannot assume the atmospheric temperature profile under areas of high pressure at 850 MB or 500 MB, will correlate to the surface being as anomalously warm, as it would during northern hemisphere summer.





It is probable, there will be a layer of closer to average temperatures near the surface, than at higher altitudes, due to less solar isolation (less surface heating) and a cooler surface.

I predict northern hemisphere sea ice extent and area will continue to increase, albeit with a slower increase than average. The 850 MB and 500 MB anomalies are not indicative of the actual surface anomaly after northern hemisphere summer.

The decrease in cloud thickness / coverage under high pressure, should also allow for more heat energy to radiate into space. This could also increase the heat anomaly at 850 MB and 500 MB.

92

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 29, 2018, 01:44:53 PM »

The NSIDC northern hemisphere arctic sea ice extent value for 6.28.2018 is 10.031 millions of square kilometers. This places 2018 northern hemisphere sea ice extent in 8th place for the date.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/

93

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 27, 2018, 01:46:00 PM »

The NSIDC northern hemisphere arctic sea ice extent value for 6.26.2018 is 10.297 millions of square kilometers (gain of 56 thousand square kilometers). This places 2018 northern hemisphere sea ice extent in 8th place for the date.

94

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data

« on: June 26, 2018, 06:54:16 PM »

The NSIDC northern hemisphere arctic sea ice extent value for 6.25.2018 is 10.241 millions of square kilometers. This places 2018 northern hemisphere sea ice extent in 7th place for the date.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/

95

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season

« on: August 29, 2017, 01:52:04 PM »

NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent had another uptick today. we are now 102000 Kilometers squared above 8.25.2017. 8.28.2017 is now the highest value in the last 5 days.

96

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season

« on: August 28, 2017, 01:36:11 PM »

Our first candidate for NSIDC arctic sea ice extent minimum is 8.25.2017. The NSIDC arctic sea ice extent metric is up 92 thousand Kilometers squared the past two days. The JAXA sea ice extent metric also recorded an increase today. 

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v2.1.csv

97

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS

« on: August 21, 2017, 05:04:03 PM »

We are currently in an unprecedented slow down in this melting season. Looking at JAXA sea ice extent data for the past 5 days (8.14-8.20), here is how this year compares to previous years. All of this in a time frame were weather was considered unfavorable by some. Where is the heat? 




78499  Kilometers Squared (2017)    
250806 Kilometers Squared (2016)
271380 Kilometers Squared (2015)    
201212 Kilometers Squared (2014)
170241 Kilometers Squared (2013)
323143 Kilometers Squared (2012)    
214782 Kilometers Squared (2011)    
171913 Kilometers Squared (2010)    
242082 Kilometers Squared (2009)    
235464 Kilometers Squared (2008)
209292 Kilometers Squared (2007)    
236247 Kilometers Squared (2006)    
174575 Kilometers Squared (2005)    
294866 Kilometers Squared (2004)    
125356 Kilometers Squared (2003)    
223099 Kilometers Squared (2002)    
207152 Kilometers Squared (2000's Average)
141827 Kilometers Squared (1990's Average)    
106000 Kilometers Squared (1980's Average)

98

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season

« on: August 15, 2017, 06:14:21 PM »

Neven wrote in his post that we dodged a cannonball this year, which I agree. But this luck can't go on forever, sooner or later we'll get a brutally bad melting season.

I would argue the arctic got hit by Curlin's Proverbial "cannonball" this past winter. So if we had below average winter temperatures, with above average summer temperatures, would we have dodged the "cannonball"? I hypothesize the warm winter temperatures and their corresponding cooler summers over the last decade are a result of the same mechanisms. Weather patterns do not get stuck months let alone a year at a time. Classifying this as "luck" is nothing more than wishful thinking.

99

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation

« on: August 15, 2017, 05:16:21 AM »

Significant area gains today (50K+). Extent looks to be a wash.

100

Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August poll

« on: August 11, 2017, 04:20:12 PM »

June I went for 2.75-3.25. then I wimped out and went up to 3.00-3.50 for July. As we reach the end of August voting I am going back to my original vote. 2.75-3.35 at the end of the day the facts still remain that the year started with very thin ice. There is still time for a huge area to go from being fractured spread out ice to being open water. Everything left to play for. MASIE has been lower than 2012 right up until a few weeks back then it went high but only a few 100 thousand sq km. Now that has all gone again and 2017 is back in the lead.

2006-6914858.83 Kilometers Squared
2007-5658628.48 Kilometers Squared
2008-6957847.31 Kilometers Squared
2009-6649893.15 Kilometers Squared
2010-6326294.13 Kilometers Squared
2011-6230654.16 Kilometers Squared
2012-6308909.23 Kilometers Squared
2013-6528327.55 Kilometers Squared
2014-6815819.12 Kilometers Squared
2015-6446197.31 Kilometers Squared
2016-6335948.88 Kilometers Squared
2017-6301329.71 Kilometers Squared

For day 221 (day 222 will update today), the MASIE value is currently third place (ahead of 2007 and 2011).

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_4km_allyears_extent_sqkm.csv

I find your illogical reasoning for a record JAXA sea ice extent minimum value using MASIE data underwhelming.