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Messages - Apocalypse4Real

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Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: July 09, 2019, 05:17:54 AM »
Thanks Vox, sobering piece. Now to find the article.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: July 09, 2019, 05:09:14 AM »
NOAA ESRL April 2019 global CO2 rose above 411 ppm. It is the 17th month with more than a 2 ppm increase, and the highest five and ten year changes.

There is more at

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 13, 2019, 12:21:27 AM »
NOAA ESRL Global Mean CO2 passed 410 ppmv in February 2019. This is not the Mauna Loa (MLO), but the entire GHG Network mean. We moved from 400 ppm through 410 ppm in 47 months - less than four years. There is no comparison in 800,000 of ice core data.

We have added 70 ppm to the global CO2 concentration in 39 years. Again there is no comparison in the ice core data.

There is a full write up at


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 18, 2019, 02:50:09 PM »
NOAA 19 AVHRR IR, January 18 2019 1235 UTC image. Note the melting ice front above Svalbard, ice fracturing in the Lincoln Sea and the breaking up of the ice pack in the Beaufort Sea.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 21, 2018, 07:15:31 PM »
Very interesting paper, depicts the short term activity which may impact daily spikes in CH4 in permafrost areas. That helps support the idea that longer term - monthly - means give a better idea of longer term increase and methane source increases.

Permafrost / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CH4 Trends
« on: July 11, 2018, 10:23:14 PM »
NOAA ESRL April 2018 global mean methane concentration was 1858 ppb. This is an increase of 10.2 ppb over April 2017. It has increased 45.2 ppb over five years, since April 2013. It is up 71.5 ppb since April 2008.

The chart with the single red line is the monthly mean methane of the entire NOAA ESRL record since 1983.

The second chart shows three trends. The blue line is the monthly change from the prior year concentration for that month. The red line shows the change in concentration from the same month five years before. The green line shows the change in concentration from the same month ten years before. The ploynomial trends are added to provide an idea of how far above or below the trend the three means are moving.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: July 08, 2018, 11:48:10 PM »
April 2018 Global CO2 at 408.96 ppm, up 2.63 ppm from April, 2017. In the last five years the increase is 12.44 ppm, and since April, 2008, up 22.67 ppm.

Between February to April 2019, we will pass 410 ppm, only about 48 months to increase 10 ppm. We are accelerating the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, faster than at any time in human history.

See more at:

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 07, 2018, 01:24:37 AM »
In the Pacific, Super Typhoon Maria went from the equivalent of a category one to a five hurricane in 24 hours. See:

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: July 03, 2018, 11:32:30 PM »
March 2018 NOAA ESRL Global CO2 at 408.75 ppm, up 2.71 ppm over 2017, 12.68 ppm over 2013 and 22.85 ppm over March 2008. See:

Permafrost / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CH4 Trends
« on: July 03, 2018, 11:28:14 PM »
March 2018 NOAA ESRL Global CH4 hit 1859.1 ppb up 11.2 ppb over 2017, up 46.1 ppb over 2013 and 73.6 ppb above 2008. See:

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: April 16, 2018, 12:49:20 AM »
Global average CO2 concentration above 407.5 ppm in January 2018, an increase of 2.48 ppm since January, 2017.

The five year change is 12.68 ppm and the decadal change is a new high of 22.56 ppm difference form January, 2008.

Also currently have increased CO2 by 46 percent since pre-industrial if the base is 278 ppm.

We are on track to punch through 410 global average in March/April 2019.

See for more.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 11, 2018, 09:22:39 PM »

Alaskan lightning detection depicted strikes over the ice at 79N two years ago.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 05, 2018, 08:44:53 PM »
The sea ice pack continues to move. North of Greenland still with warm most cloud over over the area that pulled north. Nares still seems to be moving, given the fracturing. Also more area along the Canadian Arctic islands continues to break away.

While ridging will occur, it seems we are close to extent maximum, and not much time to thicken the pack with all this motion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 25, 2018, 09:57:29 PM »
The ice fracturing and pack movement from Northern Greenland is resulting in ice fracturing across the Canadian CAB including near 90N.

Permafrost / NOAA ESRL Global CH4 Trends
« on: February 25, 2018, 09:50:17 PM »
NOAA ESRL global methane (CH4) concentration hit a new high of 1860.1 ppb in November, 2017.

This puts us on a trend of about a 9 ppb increase annually. The five year change was about 44 ppb, and the decadal change is about 70 ppb. There is more on the Apocalypse4Real blog.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: February 25, 2018, 09:41:55 PM »
NOAA ESRL Global CO2 November 2017 hit a new monthly high of 405.58 ppm. This is 2.06 ppm higher than 2006, over 12 ppm higher than November 2012 and 22 ppm higher than 2007. The trend of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations continues as human emissions have not  declined.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 24, 2018, 04:01:00 PM »
Climate Reanalyzer Forecast: next 5 days beginning Feb 24 2018 NCEP GFS 5 Day max temp forecast - is hopefully wrong - but very sobering for this time of year. There are just some things you wish you did not have to know.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 19, 2018, 02:35:15 PM »

NOAA-18 AVHRR IR seems to show a major hole in the thick ice area in the Lincoln Sea north of  Greenland. Does not seem to be an anomaly. See attached.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 17, 2018, 03:20:23 PM »
A Team - Your imagery expertise is very appreciated. The lack of snow sets up a melting situation in the next few months, and large areas of less than a meter ice creates a summer/fall potential for large areas of open water. This will be an interesting melting season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 15, 2017, 01:40:23 PM »

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 23, 2017, 12:57:02 AM »
Shakhova and Semelitov published a new paper in Boogeosciences, May 5,  2017. Seems the methane in the ESAS is from microbial sources, not clathrate.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 23, 2017, 12:40:03 AM »
There is not much multi-year ice up there, and what there is is broken up with thinner lead ice in between, often less than a meter thick. Julienne Stroeve ran an ice thickness campaign to ground substantiate the Cryosat measurements along with Ice Bridge.

Here are three links:

Must interesting comments in the NSIDC field report:

NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve continued her Arctic field work into early April, moving from Cambridge Bay, Canada to Alert in Ellesmere Island. In Alert, Stroeve focused on sampling ice thickness and snow pack characteristics along a CryoSat-2 flight track within the Lincoln Sea. This is an area between northernmost Greenland and Ellesmere Island where thick, old ice remains. The scientists flew by Twin Otter each day, out onto the sea ice between latitudes 83°N and 87.1°N. The field campaign was also supported by an aircraft from the British Antarctic Survey carrying a Ka band radar, LiDAR, and a broadband radiometer. A NASA Operation IceBridge flight also flew over the same track.

The group noted that the ice was unusually broken up and reduced to rubble, with few large multi-year floes, forcing the pilots to land on refrozen leads that at times were only 70 centimeters (28 inches) thick. Pilots remarked that they had never seen the ice look like this.

Preliminary estimates suggest mean thicknesses ranging from 2 to 3.4 meters (6.6 to 11 feet), with the thickest ice found between an ice bridge in the Lincoln Sea and mobile pack ice to the north.

Modal thickness, a representation of thermodynamically-grown level ice, ranged between 1.8 and 2.9 meters (6 and 10 feet), including 0.25 to 0.4 meters (10 to 16 inches) of snow. Second- and first-year modal ice thicknesses ranged between 1.8 and 1.9 meters (6 and 6.2 feet), about 0.2 meters (8 inches) thinner than previous airborne measurements indicated.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:17:48 PM »
Global annual mean actual growth of CO2 at 3.44 ppm for 2016 vs 2015. Highest of any year. See

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:15:41 PM »
Global monthly mean CO2 for February, 2017 at 405.75 ppm. Fastest and sortest time for a 5 ppm increase in NOAA ESRL record - at 22 months. On track for potential increase of 10 ppm in four years or less.


Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:12:42 PM »
Global monthly mean CO2 for February, 2017 405.75 ppm up 2.74 ppm above February 2016, 12.75 ppm over Feb, 2012, and 22.43 ppm over Feb 2007. All trends still intact for increases, despite El Nino effect which is working out of the data.


I decided to read the US Administration Executive Order for Energy Independence and what it was changing. Here is a critique and response.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 03:38:16 PM »
Fracturing is occurring in the Beaufort as well as the CAB. Note the attached. It may be that the entire pack is becoming more mobile due to thinner ice and wind effects.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 03:14:36 PM »
Here is the Arctic view of the fracturing across the entire 80N area. No assurance of stability in the pack.

Note the fracturing across the top of Greenland and deeper into the Arctic Ocean. A lot of mobility that does not seem ready to slow any time soon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 15, 2017, 02:06:25 PM »
The Central Arctic Basin has fractured from the sea ice edge to 90 N in the last week. You will need to download and zoom the images to see the full effects. No time to crop and post.

This ice is a mess and moving in troubling ways.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: March 12, 2017, 09:52:47 PM »
December 2016, Global CO2 concentration another new monthly record 3.27 ppm higher than December, 2015.

Additionally, the 2016 Global CO2 annual mean is 3.47 ppm higher than the annual mean for 2015.

Also, December 2016 global CO2 a 22.52 ppm increase over December 2006, another new record.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: February 28, 2017, 03:22:26 AM »
The glaring difference in the record of continuous monthly lows.

That was summer 2012.

This is winter.....I wonder what summer will bring. Also a lot of fracturing is occurring in the Arctic Ocean. The pack is moving a fair amount.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: February 12, 2017, 04:28:05 PM »
Wipneus, I was looking at the Sentinel and Radar Sat individual imagery, through Polarview, but this makes the impact so incredible. Much appreciated. WOW and Yikes!

The power of wind and wave to demolish sea ice is very apparent. Almost all the way to the NP, the ice is rubble.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2017, 02:21:13 AM »

Great stuff! I review your graphs daily.


Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: January 03, 2017, 03:44:49 PM »
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.

What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:

Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: January 03, 2017, 03:39:32 PM »
Another aftermath of this El Nino was the boost in CO2 level increases over prior year. This association of El Nino and following CO2 yr/yr increases looks like the attached. What is even more interesting are when monthly CO2 increases occurred in the absence of El Nino.

There is more at:


Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: December 30, 2016, 08:38:21 PM »
Looks like the mild La Nina conditions are short lived...

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: December 30, 2016, 03:48:41 AM »
Global annual CO2 for 2016 on track for a yr/yr increase above 3.7 ppm, smashing through the annual growth rate of 3 ppm.


Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« on: December 30, 2016, 03:32:05 AM »
Thanks Crandles and Pmt,

Here are the full trending of the 1 5, and 10 year monthly change for October, 2016.

More is at:

Crandles, I decided to run the ENSO/El Nino change and CO2 increase by month to determine how much pattern exists, and I'll blog on that shortly.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: December 30, 2016, 03:14:02 AM »
NOAA/ESRL Global CO2 for October, 2016:

Hit a new monthly high of 402.31 ppm, which was 3.71 ppm higher than October, 2015. This yr/yr increase of 3.71 ppm is the highest for any month in the NOAA/ESRL record.

The ten year change from October 2006 to 2016 was 22.47 ppm, the highest of any ten year period monthly comparison.

Perhaps some of this rate of increase is El Nino related, but these may be less connected than previously.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 30, 2016, 02:40:34 AM »
What is there is not frozen solid. Lot's of fracturing. Latest METOP-1 AVHRR image attached for partial Canadian Arctic ice state as illustration.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 29, 2016, 11:38:25 PM »
Thought I'd write up the Dec 1-28 sea ice changes briefly and include the transcribed remarks from the initial AGU session from the 2015 Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition on the Lance.


Mats Granskog, a sea-ice researcher at the Norwegian Polar Institute in Tromsø and chief scientist of the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) project, presented at the AGU conference, there were...

“Lot’s of surprises. We saw a new Arctic where the ice is much thinner, only three to four feet thick and this ice functions much differently than it did five to ten years ago when the ice was much thicker.”

“We were also surprised that there was so much snow on the ice. Way more than we expected from earlier work."

“We observed the first northern most under sea ice phytoplankton bloom very early in the season when the ice was still snow covered. It was only this new Arctic ice, very mobile ice, that allowed this to happen."

"So we can say that this thinner and younger ice today works very differently than the ice we knew. It moves much faster. It breaks up more easily. It is way more vulnerable to storms and winds."

“The so called Arctic Amplification, the rapid warming of the Arctic, is in part caused by a reduction in the Arctic sea ice, seen in the last decade. And this has already impacted the patterns of weather and climate on the planet.”

"It is disturbing that the accelerated warming in the Arctic actually feeds more warming in the Arctic, and can even result in more drastic changes. And these drastic changes in the Arctic sea kind of calls into the question the knowledge that we have today about Arctic sea ice.”

Source: Youtube AGU

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 22, 2016, 07:07:49 PM »
Arctic "heat wave" storm in IR imagery. Source: Environment Canada. Black is the warmest temps. Looks like the storm is devouring the North Pole.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: November 20, 2016, 08:10:18 PM »

Your technical and software skills along with your knowledge of the Arctic adds considerably to our dialogue on the Forum. The graphics always create compelling arguments.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 18, 2016, 09:06:28 PM »

Thanks for the anomaly clarification and the tremendous contribution to tracking global ice change.

I haven't looked at the data, but it appears from the graph that we are already below the low global sea ice levels of September, which appears to be a month early than the naturally occurring global decline for Antarctic summer..


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 18, 2016, 02:41:18 PM »

What is the base period for your global sea ice extent and area anomaly graphs?

They are very impressive - and disturbing.

Mind if I share them in a course I teach?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 09, 2016, 01:53:48 PM »

I appreciate the 090816 image, may I reuse in a course I am teaching next week - with appropriate attribution?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 28, 2016, 08:39:38 PM »
The Great Arctic Cyclone is churning ice in areas with sea surface temperature anomalies that will accelerate melt and drop extent and area.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 19, 2016, 07:35:19 PM »
NASA Walt Meier: Early melt this year impacting Arctic Sea ice pack. Would love to know what the Arctic hole experienced.

Arctic sea ice / SEARCH - Arctic Presentation
« on: July 18, 2016, 10:59:28 PM »
An Arctic Alerts Media Roundtable was held in Washington DC in the last two weeks. Walt Meier and Jennifer Francis among the presenters. The link to the talking point slides for all presenters is:

One sobering take away: Ted Schuur, Vulnerable Permafrost thaw could result in a CO2 gain estimate of 75 ppm by 2100.

I just blogged on how Arctic Ocean 60-90N anomalies are driving up global ocean warming over .5C over the 1971-2000 base used by the NCDC/NCEI. See:

The attached graph shows global ocean anomalies (blue), NH anomalies (red) and 60-90N anomalies (green) from Jan 1950-May 2016.

The map shows the warming trends through time from 1880-2016 for the 1971-2000 base.

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