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Messages - Apocalypse4Real

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The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center just published a piece on the record number of hurricane-force storms in the Atlantic, I've just blogged on this and the UK impact.


Permafrost / Re: High Methane - North America
« on: March 14, 2014, 04:19:42 PM »

The dominant wind pattern has been to shove the polar temps and gasses south through the winter. I think it is a factor, but have not studied it completely. We need 3D modeling of CH4 and CO2 atmospheric transport. The closest we get on the web is through use of methanetracker.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 14, 2014, 04:13:08 PM »
Given surface winds and temps, I do not think we are at max area or extent yet. The following are the surface winds for March 14 2014 1200 UTC and the surface wind and temperature forecast for March 16, 2014 1200 UTC.

The current winds support sea ice transport through the Bering, Fram and other straits.

By March 16 the Bering and Fram outflows are slowed due to wind change, although the areas between Svalbard and Russia experience stronger surface winds.

Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: March 06, 2014, 05:09:46 AM »
Taking a broader look than at MLO, METOP IASI globally measured CO2 hit 398 ppm at 945 mb on March 3, 2014, which is 3 ppm above last year on the same date same altitude. A lot of areas globally above 410 ppm. See:

The MLO CO2 hourly readings crossed 400 ppm on February 26, 2014. I have posted on this today:



Thanks for the thread and the report. We hit above an hourly 400 ppm on 022614  at MLO.

I am working on a post that uses the CO2 modeling and estimates for CO2/CO2e modeling that I think will help the no 2C argument - and hope to get that up this weekend.


Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: March 01, 2014, 02:31:06 PM »
Seems we had our first readings above 400 ppm on February 26. Too bad we were down on February 27. Attached are the MLO readings for the week ending 022614.

By the way, globally the IASI imagery is showing wide areas above 420 ppm. I have posted on this at:

Crandles, where did you get your MLO CO2 readings data for 2014?

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 28, 2014, 03:17:40 AM »
I decided to look at drought globally with the craziness in weather and jet streams etc. There is major drought for extended periods in areas such as Australia and Brazil, as commented above. However there are more major areas in drought not being discussed.

For example, Istanbul, Turkey has less than a 100 days water supply - and they are heading into spring and summer with bone dry conditions for agriculture. Singapore is rationing, as are parts of Malaysia.

I have more over in my blog using the NCDC Global Drought Portal to illustrate.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: February 28, 2014, 03:07:14 AM »
The ice across much of the Alaskan and Siberian coastal areas looks like it has already hit an ice machine. This is not the past pack ice.

Consequences / Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« on: February 27, 2014, 02:49:05 PM »
I decided to summarize the California and US drought situation and the resulting climate impacts - which are sobering despite whatever rain might fall.


Science / Global Forest Watch
« on: February 24, 2014, 05:35:22 AM »
The World Resource Institute, Google and other partners have just put up an interactive mapping site that tracks deforestation and reforestation from 2000-2013. It is a great site.

Here is my blog intro to this new resource and potential impact on CO2 and CH4 tracking.

With a potential El Nino on the way, it will change the CO2 and CH4 pattern we have had for the last three years.

Science / Re: Links regarding Dr Francis' meandering jet stream affects
« on: February 16, 2014, 05:17:12 PM »
I picked this up yesterday and blogged on it briefly, including the jet stream meandering of yesterday from 10 mb to the surface.

Here is the meandering mess at 500 mb for the NH.


Arctic sea ice / Re: polar vortex - where?
« on: February 16, 2014, 04:15:53 AM »
With Jennifer Francis's paper at the AAAS in regard to increasing Rossby Waves and stuck jet stream patterns, I updated what I had posted on the jet stream by mb layer.

Permafrost / Re: High Methane - North America
« on: February 15, 2014, 03:40:25 PM »
There are two papers in the last few months on the under-reporting of CH4 release in the US by about 50-75%, which has a significant impact on US reporting to the UN WMO GHG, report. The US increases in CH4 release are substantiated by the AIRS satellite CH4 monitoring.

Here is the link:

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 13, 2014, 09:48:12 PM »
Decided to summarize this in a blog post and added in the last two years of extent and thickness of Feb 22 images from the USN sea ice thickness and the Feb 22, 2014 forecast for comparison.

Jim, I hope you do not mind, I cited your numbers - with appropriate sourcing/citation.


Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: February 13, 2014, 08:59:24 PM »
Warm air intrusions into the CAB will keep slowing this down, and if the GFS models are correct, it will impact ice in the Hudson Bay as warm air streams north over the Eastern US later next week.

Here is an example of today:

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 10, 2014, 12:07:20 AM »
Hi Bruce,

Work got crazy, and I had to pull back. I missed posting, but that was the choice.

The actual blog link is:

I will be doing a lot more on the blog and may cross post the links here.

Arctic sea ice / Re: polar vortex - where?
« on: February 09, 2014, 05:06:52 PM »
Seems the UK MET has finally decided to issue a report on the extreme UK weather and causes. I have posted on this at

Dame Julia Slingo, the MET chief scientist made remarks about the current extremes to the media, including "...all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change,"....

"There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events."

The report discusses the jet stream and stratospheric polar vortex. It is found at:

Arctic sea ice / Re: polar vortex - where?
« on: February 09, 2014, 01:39:14 AM »
I decided to dissect the vortex and jet stream this afternoon, from 10 hpa/mb down to 1000 hpa/mb. It reveals a meandering mess underneath the bi-polar flow at 10 hpa/mb. The results are on my blog:

Johnm33 and jdallen,

Here is the image from of CH4 for Sept 14, 2013 12-24 hr for the area around Svalbard.

Most of the levels are 1850-1950 ppb, but the lighter reds are 1900-1950, and the darker reds are 1950+ ppbv

Arctic background / Re: "Peter the Great" Explores the Northern Sea Route
« on: September 13, 2013, 02:47:21 PM »
The Russian exercise is to train to maintain maritime dominance of its Northern SLC now that it is assumed that the Arctic sea route will open regularly each summer.

One may presume some research may be occurring while involved in training. We may find that out later.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 13, 2013, 02:42:57 PM »
There is a new piece of research out this week in Science on channelized melting effects on the PIG. See:

Channelized Ice Melting in the Ocean Boundary Layer Beneath Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica

T. P. Stanton1,*,
 W. J. Shaw1,
 M. Truffer2,
 H. F. J. Corr3,
 L. E. Peters4,
 K. L. Riverman4,
 R. Bindschadler5,
 D. M. Holland6,
 S. Anandakrishnan4
+ Author Affiliations

1Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, USA.
2Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775–7320, USA.
3British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3OET, UK.
4Department of Geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802–2711, USA.
5Emeritus Scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
6Department of Mathematics, New York University, NY 10012, USA.
↵*Corresponding author. E-mail:

Editor's Summary

Ice shelves play a key role in the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheets by buttressing their seaward-flowing outlet glaciers; however, they are exposed to the underlying ocean and may weaken if ocean thermal forcing increases. An expedition to the ice shelf of the remote Pine Island Glacier, a major outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that has rapidly thinned and accelerated in recent decades, has been completed. Observations from geophysical surveys and long-term oceanographic instruments deployed down bore holes into the ocean cavity reveal a buoyancy-driven boundary layer within a basal channel that melts the channel apex by 0.06 meter per day, with near-zero melt rates along the flanks of the channel. A complex pattern of such channels is visible throughout the Pine Island Glacier shelf.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: August 16, 2013, 06:12:39 AM »
I'd say the METOP data is far more representative of a real global mean. The CDIAC data is based upon 2 data points, Mace Head and Cape Grimm.

METOP IASI is global scanning at 100 layers, and not two data points through time.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: August 11, 2013, 11:46:40 PM »
The following provides three perspectives of what is driving the increase of CH4 in Siberia this summer.

First, is the overlap of forest fires, the permafrost layer, land temperature anomalies and sea ice for August 9, 2013. This helps provide my perspective of how these are interrelated and feeding the bump in methane we have seen since July 31, 2013.

Source: NASA-NEO

The second visual drops permafrost and adds the MODIS true visual layer to show the the smoke blocked the temp anom readings.

Source: NASA-NEO,

The last visual reveals the interchange between drought and fires. The drought covers the period between April and July 15, 2013, in relation to the August 9 sea ice and fires.

Source: UCL and NASA NEO


In your reply #1090, where and how did you generate your concentration image, very clean and clear.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 09, 2013, 06:57:25 AM »
Are we seeing soot, or algae bloom in this ESS picture from August 8, 2013?

Permafrost / Re: High Methane - Africa, Middle East, and South Asia
« on: August 07, 2013, 05:20:58 AM »
Thanks! These articles are very helpful!


Permafrost / Re: High Methane - Africa, Middle East, and South Asia
« on: August 06, 2013, 07:55:42 PM »
Another glance at high methane in North Africa, Middle East and South Asia. The upper tropospheric methane continues to build.

The attached reveals concentrations as high as 2340 ppbv in this area at 218 mb or approximately 36,850 feet altitude.

The buildup seems to be a response to higher emissions and also lower OH in the atmosphere.

Permafrost / Re:
« on: August 05, 2013, 06:18:02 PM » continues to add layers and improve reporting. To demonstrate what you can observe and learn, the image below reveals the relationship between forest fires, CO and methane release/concentrations.

The image shows the CH4 concentrations above 1950 ppb (yellow areas) between 399-607 mb on August 3, 2013 0-12 hr. The methane is overlaid on the CO (carbon monoxide) concentrations for August 3, which is a result of the forest fires in Siberia (brown, orange and red areas).

The result is a pretty tight fit. This causes concern about increasing methane, since CO and methane oxidation require OH (hydroxyl) for breakdown. Thus with more large fires and CO in the atmosphere, it adds to the increasing concentrations of methane.

Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: August 05, 2013, 06:09:55 PM »

This paper gives the case for potential release:

Doklady Earth Sciences
September 2012, Volume 446, Issue 1, pp 1132-1137
The degradation of submarine permafrost and the destruction of hydrates on the shelf of east arctic seas as a potential cause of the “Methane Catastrophe”: some results of integrated studies in 2011

On the basis of the analysis of published data and in the course of the authors’ long-term geochemical and acoustic surveys performed in 1995–2011 on the East Siberian shelf (ESS) and aimed to research the role of the Arctic shelf in the processes of massive methane outbursts into the Earth’s atmosphere, some crucially new results were obtained. A number of hypotheses were proposed concerning the qualitative and quantitative characterization of the scale of this phenomenon. The ESS is a powerful supplier of methane to the atmosphere owing to the continued degradation of the submarine permafrost, which causes the destruction of gas hydrates. The emission of methane in several areas of the ESS is massive to the extent that growth in the methane concentrations in the atmosphere to values capable of causing a considerable and even catastrophic warning on the Earth is possible. The seismic data were compared to those of the drilling from ice performed first by the authors in 2011 in the southeastern part of the Laptev Sea to a depth of 65 m from the ice surface. This made it possible to reveal some new factors explaining the observed massive methane bursts out of the bottom sediments.

Original Russian Text © V.I. Sergienko, L.I. Lobkovskii, I.P. Semiletov, O.V. Dudarev, N.N. Dmitrievskii, N.E. Shakhova, N.N. Romanovskii, D.A. Kosmach, D.N. Nikol’skii, S.L. Nikiforov, A.S. Salomatin, R.A. Anan’ev, A.G. Roslyakov, A.N. Salyuk, V.V. Karnaukh, D.B. Chernykh, V.E. Tumskoi, V.I. Yusupov, A.V. Kurilenko, E.M. Chuvilin, B.A. Bukhanov, 2012, published in Doklady Akademii Nauk, 2012, Vol. 446, No. 3, pp. 330–335.

Consequences / Re: Melting Arctic an "economic time bomb"
« on: August 05, 2013, 04:59:29 PM »

Thanks for your great contributions to this thread. They have helped fill in some papers that I had not previously seen.


Permafrost / Re: High Methane - North America
« on: August 03, 2013, 07:16:03 AM »
The first IASI image is for August 1, 2013 0-12 hrs with the concentration of 2216 ppb at some location at 469 mb/hPa. Note the global mean is 1819 ppb, the highest so far this year.

The second IASI image is August 1 2013 12-24 hrs with a concentration of 2349 ppb at some location at 586 mb/hPa.

This illustrates the impact of the fires, heatwaves, drought, and perhaps permafrost methane release.

Permafrost / Re: High Methane - Africa, Middle East, and South Asia
« on: August 01, 2013, 05:28:32 PM »
North Africa and the Middle East continue to have high CH4 concentrations in the upper troposphere.

On July 31, 2013 12-24 hrs, at 156 mb, the CH4 concentration was as high as 2167 mb. At other layers, in Iran and Central Asia, it ranged as high as 2276 ppb at 293 mb.

Attached is the 156 mb image.

Permafrost / High Methane - North America
« on: August 01, 2013, 05:22:57 PM »
The latest METOP 2 IASI imagery for July 31, 2013 12-24 hrs reveals a significant increase in upper tropospheric methane over North America.

Contributing factors are record high temps, fires, perhaps permafrost methane release, and also the lowering of OH in the atmosphere due to the Siberian and North American fires.

Attached is the 586 mb image from 07-31-13 pm to give an example of what is observed. the highest methane readings at that layer were 2241 ppb.

The best way to get the full impact is by use of Remember to use Google Chrome for access.

Science / Re: Ocean warming
« on: August 01, 2013, 03:21:41 PM »
There is another perspective, the heating seen in the global temperature increase and the stored energy in the deep ocean.

Science / Re: Ocean warming
« on: August 01, 2013, 02:28:48 PM »
Something I found of interest is that the base SST table used to calculate El Nine-La Nina ENSO/ONI change/anomalies actually has an increase in the 30 year temperature base.

They are changing the methodology to recalculate the base every 5 years from the current 10 year period. The graphic of the change in the SST base is telling. The Historical ONI values by month are found at:

In other words, what we calculate as El Nino/La Nina or ENSO neutral isn't the same base as the past.


Consequences / Re: Melting Arctic an "economic time bomb"
« on: July 31, 2013, 06:04:19 AM »
Speaking of more significant methane release, it seems that the Middle East or Africa hit a high concentration July 29, 2013 12-24 hr.

Image of high concentration attached.


Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: July 31, 2013, 06:00:31 AM »
It seems an area of high CO2 concentration registered on the METOP 2 IASI imagery on July 29, 12-24 hr.

The highest concentration was 447 ppm. I cannot narrow to an exact location, but suspect Antarctica.

Image attached.


Permafrost / High Methane - Africa, Middle East, and South Asia
« on: July 31, 2013, 12:48:59 AM »
While this thread may not fit "permafrost" there are high concentrations of methane release elsewhere that contribute to the ongoing rise of CH4 in the global troposphere.

An example is July 29's very high readings across North Africa, Middle East and South Asia, as well as elsewhere. Some of the high readings are the result of fires, rice production, oil and natural gas production, and biological methane release.

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Methane Concentrations
« on: July 30, 2013, 04:21:35 PM »

Thanks for all your work on Antarctic methane and the compilation of sources.

Another new tool has been added to, that is the breakdown of CH$ concentrations into three display layers:

1750-1850 ppb
1850-1950 ppb
1950+ ppb

This function is retroactive to January 2013, similar to the macro function.

Also, the reporting has been updated.


Permafrost / Re:
« on: July 30, 2013, 06:19:40 AM » has added a new set of reports which enables you to track global methane be ppb ranges, from 1750-1850, 1850-1950 and 1950+. It is one step in developing a full range of reporting methane levels from January 2013 to date.

Consequences / Re: Melting Arctic an "economic time bomb"
« on: July 27, 2013, 07:44:08 AM »
Four more METOP A IASI satellite views of CH4 concentration for November 1-10 at 600 mb.

First 2008,
Second 2009,
Third 2011,
Fourth 2012,

Note: This scale is higher than the AIRS - dark red is above 1920 ppbv, not 1870.

While we can observe a major jump in 2011, when Semelitov and Shakhova saw the higher methane release, we can also note that this is also part of a continuing slower increase in hemispheric CH4 over the last decade.

Ice loss, refreeze, warmer waters, seem to be contributing factors.

Consequences / Re: Melting Arctic an "economic time bomb"
« on: July 27, 2013, 06:58:43 AM »
I think two monthly average images of AIRS CH4 concentration at 400 mb/hPa create the picture of release and change in concentration in less than a decade.

First image, January 2003.

Second image, January 2012.

I think the change is obvious, in some areas in red, the concentration in 2012 was over 1900 ppbv.

It is also ...... real satellite data.

Permafrost / Re: Page 21
« on: July 24, 2013, 03:44:23 PM »
Hi Anne,

Thanks for both of these sources, I'll have a look through later this week. They sound very interesting.


Policy and solutions / Re: 2 C Target No Longer Workable or Possible
« on: July 23, 2013, 09:19:46 PM »
UN climate change deal “may not be feasible” by 2015
Last updated on 23 July 2013, 2:51 pm 23 July 2013

The 2015 UN climate summit in Paris could mark start of process to develop a global emissions treaty rather than end -

See more at:

Great catch Jim,

It seems to show us that most of the Arctic has the consistency of a Slurpee in the US. If this stirred and shaken then a good dose of sunlight, we may see a closing in on prior years melt.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 22, 2013, 09:21:21 PM »
Thanks for this AbruptSLR, it is something I have not researched. Take a look at The Antarctic CH$ is continuing at high levels and seems to have spread in the last week.


Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 21, 2013, 08:11:41 PM »
Continuing the global CH4 methane average jump, on July 20, 2013 am, 0-12 hr, we hit a new high average of 1807 ppb.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 21, 2013, 07:19:53 PM »
On July 19, 2013 0-12 hr am, we increased to a global CH4 average of 1806 ppb at 469 mb, with the highest CH4 reading of only 2177 ppb. The higher methane coverage in Russia is due to a mix of fires and permafrost methane release.

Antarctica continues to show high concentrations of methane over east Antarctica.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 21, 2013, 07:07:08 PM »
Also, we just hit another global CH4 average milestone. On July 11, 0-12 hr, at 565-586 mb we hit 1805 ppb global methane average for the first time in the METOP 2 IASI imagery.

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