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Messages - Apocalypse4Real

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151
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 21, 2013, 07:02:30 PM »
Currently the Kara Sea is getting a lot of high temps, and the sea surface temp anomalies are high.

In the METOP 2 IASI images, there are areas of methane release above 1950 ppb. See methanetracker.org for July 18 in the macro view


152
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost Melt, Perhaps Not As Bad As We Feared...
« on: July 21, 2013, 07:00:04 PM »
However, ongoing research shows that permafrost is warming, in some cases as much as .5 C at 15 meters below the surface in the Hudson Bay lowlands.

See: Warmer temps threaten railway
Churchill shipping runs over peatland

By: Bill Redekop, Friday, Jul. 12, 2013 at 8:25 AM

http://www.brandonsun.com/breaking-news/warmer-temps-threaten-railway-215197711.html?thx=y

153
Thanks Chris,

My sister-in-law has been sweating it out in Watford! Of course tomorrow's 32 C in her area will not be enjoyed. She is ready for cooler temps.

Enjoy the thunderstorms! If you lived in Florida, you'd get them about every day this time of year. Picture: Clearwater Beach Florida, 2012.

I'll stay on topic after this - back to the ice.

A4R

154
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 21, 2013, 05:21:07 PM »
Temps seem up at NPEO cam 1 - is this rain - or fog condensation?

The last three frames show increasing droplets on the lense.

155
@Chris, UK then had a recent heat wave - longest stretch of high temps in years that threatens wheat production.

"Temperatures in the U.K. have climbed above 82 degrees Fahrenheit for 11 days, the longest hot spell since 2006, the Met Office said today in an online report. England had 0.2" of rain on average in the first two weeks of July. Similar precipitation totals in the second half of the month would mean the driest July for the region since 1825, when England and Wales saw just 0.3" of rain, the national weather forecaster said."

http://www.agweb.com/article/wheat_threat_looms_as_uk_heat_wave_rivals_2006_BLMG/

Now back to the coming GAC 2013 (1) (the (1) reflects my expectation that we will see more than one GAC this year - time will tell.)

The Ohio State University Polar forecast for 25  July 2013 at 0000 UTC calls for a 976 mb SLP low to park over the CAB. The coastal temps in Siberia and Alaska and the CAA are high.

Link:
http://polarmet.osu.edu/nwp/animation.php?model=arctic_wrf&run=00&var=plot001

See attached: for 250713 0000

While fairly strong, I think its persistence will be a telling factor on ice impact.

156
Antarctica / Antarctic Climate Warming
« on: July 21, 2013, 04:34:50 PM »
There is a fairly succinct article in Science News that summarizes current research on warming in the Antarctic, drivers that may influence that warming, and the implications of its warming on global climate.

See: Taking Antarctica's temperature Frozen continent may not be immune to global warming
July 27, 2013; Vol.184 #2
By Erin Wayman

Web edition: July 11, 2013
Print edition: July 27, 2013; Vol.184 #2 (p. 18)

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/351507/description/Taking_Antarcticas_temperature

157
Policy and solutions / Climate Change Solution - Thorium Power
« on: July 17, 2013, 03:50:26 PM »
This idea was articulated in an editorial on July 16 by an Arctic climate observer.

Thorium power:

See: Solutions for the real problem of climate change

http://www.superiortelegram.com/event/article/id/78834/


158
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 13, 2013, 03:57:14 PM »
These two photos are being posted to document for dorlomin the freezing of methane in Arctic Sea ice.

For Semelitov's comments, see: http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2010-03/vast-amounts-frozen-methane-escaping-atmosphere-leak-arctic-seafloor

159
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Methane Concentrations
« on: July 12, 2013, 08:07:20 PM »
Abrupt SLR,

I'll comment more later, but what might help all of us is if you can find sources that map the wind patterns in the Antarctic from the time that high concentration began to current date, to help us understand the high concentrations of Antarctic methane this winter.

I have not read the above thread, if you answered the question already, my apologies.

I hope you'll continue to explore methanetracker.org as it continues to help us build a picture of global methane concentration.

A4R

160
Permafrost / Re: Methanetracker.org
« on: July 12, 2013, 05:34:24 PM »
There is a methane release above 1950 ppbv in the East Siberian Sea that has persisted as the sea ice has melted or moved over the last three days.

Beginning 7 July 2013 pm it develops across the area between 150-165E and 71 30 and 76 N. There is a major burst on July 9-10, between 151-156 E and 71 15 - 72 45 N or an area approximately 75x100 miles that persists for 36 hours, which seems like the release of clathrate methane release by melting ice.

I used the unified layers and SSMIS sea ice layer to follow the changes in methanetracker.org.

161
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:53:19 AM »
wili,

There is a mix of factors, forest fires, permafrost melt, and earlier this year, it was burning off wheat fields, as far as I could tell. Also, in one circumstance it was directly linked to energy production.

A4R

162
Permafrost / Re: Methanetracker.org
« on: July 12, 2013, 06:51:09 AM »
Hi wili,

The yellow shading represents any area with layers with above 1950 ppbv CH4.

The layers displayed shift in every 12 hr segment, based upon whether they have even on cell with above 1950 ppbv globally.

Omar and I have been engaged in discovery mode for the last few weeks, welcome to what we are finding a fascinating way over understanding global methane release in interaction with ice, sea temperatures, rainfall, forest fires and more.

A4R

163
While this may hint at the jet stream changes. it may also give a hint on why the Greenland ice sheet melt rate jumped in the last two days.

It seems that there is so much turbulence over Greenland that transatlantic flights are diverting from their normal routes.

Here is the Washington Post article mention, and then the wind turbulence maps.

Wa Po: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/07/11/turns-out-that-aeroflot-flight-to-havana-is-diverting-because-of-turbulence-over-greenland/

Turbulence Forecast, areas in red dashed lines experience severe turbulence.:

http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/atlantic_westbound_tracks.php

http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/atlantic_eastbound_tracks.php

Canada turbulence forecast:
http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/canada.php


164
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 11, 2013, 04:47:51 PM »
I have updated the IASI 600 mb Arctic imagery through June 30, 2013.

For the main page, see: https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home

For the 600 mb comparison, see:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home/iasi-2012-vs-2011-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

The image below is the 600 mb IASI image produced by Dr. Yurganov.

165
Permafrost / Methanetracker.org
« on: July 11, 2013, 06:08:27 AM »
During the last few months, I have not posted as much on methane layers at Apocalypse4Real. That was not due to less interest - although time was a factor. The lag was due to collaboration on a new project which will make 3-D near real time global tracking of methane release at high concentrations a reality.

http://methanetracker.org was developed by Omar Cabrera, and has now progressed enough to go public. We are not done with improvements, but it portrays methane release and 3-D concentration in near real time.

The resource uses the METOP 2 IASI CH4 imagery, which has been reprocessed to display in Google Earth. It captures the 100 layers of IASI CH4 readings every 12 hours, from 0-12 hr Z and 12-24 hrs Z daily. We have started with imagery from January 1, 2013 to YTD.

See my comment on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog for further details. I'll post more later.

A4R

166
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: July 09, 2013, 03:43:37 PM »
And this is all before the Beaufort high pressure for the next 10 days....

167
Consequences / Re: Weather and agriculture
« on: July 07, 2013, 09:48:21 PM »
The US intelligence community is expecting significant problems before 2050. See the national Intelligence Council 2030 report:

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

Drought and Flood are two key causes of social instability, and one primary impact of both is on agricultural production.

In reality we are already experiencing these impacts, drought caused agricultural production shortfalls, and the resulting food inflation has been a major stressor in countries experiencing conflict. While agriculture seems to be on the mend compared to last year, that does not seem the case in any countries where the final crop production numbers are not meeting expectation for key crops.

The latest World Economic Forum rated food insecurity as one of the greatest and most likely risks of the next decade. The report is here:

http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2013-eighth-edition


168
Permafrost / Re: NASA CARVE Mission - Methane Tracking
« on: July 07, 2013, 04:11:03 PM »
There is a media update on this summer's CARVE mission by Chris Miller, the mission PI.

Significant comments are:

"Ask Miller now if any trends are apparent, and he demurs, wanting to wait for more data. But he does say the airborne surveillance periodically encounter large “plumes of methane,” as much as 150 kilometers (90 miles) across.

"It turns out not all carbon compounds are created equal when it comes to effect on the atmospheric greenhouse. Methane, for example, has a much greater impact than carbon dioxide, as much as 100 times greater over a 20-year period, according to Miller.

What’s more, the climate itself can influence the type of carbon compounds thawing permafrost is more likely to release. Warm and dry is more favorable for carbon dioxide. Warm and wetter would be expected to produce more methane, and it would not take much of a shift to have a significant impact, Miller said.

“If the amount of methane to carbon dioxide shifts just a little bit in favor of methane, just one or two percent, then without increasing the amount of carbon that’s released from the soil tremendously you can actually double or even triple the amount of ‘radiative forcing’ and greenhouse gas warming," Miller said. "That’s why we’re really interested in -- whether the arctic is becoming warmer and drier or warmer and wetter.”

The video link is in the article.

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Vast-Reservoirs-of-Arctic-Carbon-Could-Affect-Global-Warming-213926781.html

169
The Siberian Times has interesting comments from the North Pole 40 science team after their return this week. Here are the highlights:

"The 16 scientists were in danger of sinking on an ice floe that had shrunk ten times.
Nikolai Fomichev, chief of the drifting ice North Pole 40-40 station, said: 'The cracks went right through the ice field, dividing it into four separate floes - and never froze back.'

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/after-a-250-day-1640-km-drift-in-the-arctic-ocean-crew-from-north-pole-40-station-is-back-on-shore/


170
Canada fires in the 48 hours to July 3 2013 from MODIS.

171
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 03, 2013, 02:24:47 PM »
O Buoy 7 is above 0C, and the runoff is significant, the clouds seem to be clearing.

On July 1, the ponds were refreezing....ice on the edges, not so today.

First image, 1 July.

Second image, 3 July.

172
Another short term impact on the Beaufort is the amount of discharge from the MacKenzie River and the Canadian flooding. It is spewing brown fresh water into the Beaufort - water that has been heated by the anomalously hi temps in Canada and Alaska.

173
Werther,

I really appreciate the detailed analysis of HYCOM vs real image. Your dedication to reveal the real state of the ice is very helpful - and troubling.

A4R.

174
Deep Octopus,

Here is the CPC 3-7 day temperature hazard and fire warning overlay, plus current fires in the Western US as of June 29 2013.


175
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 29, 2013, 06:43:27 AM »
Hi Wili,

I have no idea, I can speculate that it has to do with the focus on aerosols and other trace gases. The METOP IASI data is actually more accurate and dynamically tracked on a regular basis. That is why I have focused more on its observation.

A4R.

176
We'll see how long it stays and microwaves the ice.


177
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 28, 2013, 08:38:24 PM »
I have updated my website that shows the comparisons of the AIRS/Giovanni methane concentrations at 359 hPA and Dr. Yurganov's CH4 concentrations at 600 mb.

NASA has discontinued the CH4 section of the Giovanni data as of Febraury 28, 2013. I posted what I had through March 20.

Dr. Yurganov's 600 mb imagery comparison has been updated through June 20, 2013.

The main CH4 page link is: https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home

For the 600 mb methane, the link is:
https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home/iasi-2012-vs-2011-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

I will be updating the IASI 2 methane imagery over the next few days. There is also a new methane imagery piece coming, more on that when it is ready.

178
Permafrost / Re: What is Happening under a Cloud of Methane?
« on: June 28, 2013, 03:48:14 AM »
Hi Paul,

I self-generate the Google Earth views. Each layer of CH4 or CO2 (there are 100 produced), including all the ones I do not post, from  0.016 mb down to 1028 mb, are available at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/IASI/html/M2/RP/mrm_t1.html

There is no long term save, the images are available for three days.

A4R

179
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Methane Concentrations
« on: June 24, 2013, 08:20:45 PM »
The final images are the Antarctic surface temperature anomalies for June 22, 2013.

180
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Methane Concentrations
« on: June 24, 2013, 08:18:19 PM »
Now the CO2 readings, from the same perspective. The highest possible reading is 423.6 ppm.

181
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Methane Concentrations
« on: June 24, 2013, 08:16:10 PM »
I thought a glimpse at the recent readings of three elements in the Antarctic GHG and climate changes to come might be of interest. What follows first is the CH4 levels for June 22, 2013 am at 469 mb, with a possible high concentration of 2142 ppbv.

Second are the CO2 levels for June 22 2013 am at 469 mb and possibly up to 423.6 ppm.

The final images are the Antarctic surface temperature anomalies for June 22, 2013

182
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: June 24, 2013, 04:58:45 PM »
In regard to Arctic Ocean acidification, I have been watching the O-Buoy 7 CO2 readings for several weeks. They seem to be running between 465-480 ppm. If this is the CO2 release across broad areas of the Arctic Sea ice, it is very troubling.

The chart is attached, and link is: http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy7/co2

183
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 24, 2013, 04:36:39 PM »
Here is the O-Buoy 8 webcam 24 June, 2013 photo. Look s like fracturing right beside the camera.


184
Jim,

What the buoys are telling us...?

Here are examples,

1) O-Buoy 8 webcam photo, 24 June, 2013, 1411 hours....

2) O-Buoy 7 webcam photo, 24 June, 2013, 1411 hours...

Seems like a healthy melt and webcam 8 is about to hit the water.

185
Permafrost / Noctilucent Cloud development and Methane
« on: June 24, 2013, 02:42:35 AM »
Noctilucent clouds have been increasing in area, timing and intensity for the last decade. Given levels of CH4 being observed high in the Arctic atmosphere, I expect the trend to continue. What effect they will have on climate change is still under study.

Below is excerpts from the recent phys.org article on their early appearance in 2013.

Noctilucent clouds get an early start

Jun 10, 2013 by Tony Phillips

"News flash: This year, NLCs are getting an early start. NASA's AIM spacecraft, which is orbiting Earth on a mission to study noctilucent clouds, started seeing them on May 13th.

"The 2013 season is remarkable because it started in the northern hemisphere a week earlier than any other season that AIM has observed," reports Cora Randall of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado. "This is quite possibly earlier than ever before."

The early start is extra-puzzling because of the solar cycle. Researchers have long known that NLCs tend to peak during solar minimum and bottom-out during solar maximum—a fairly strong anti-correlation. "If anything, we would have expected a later start this year because the solar cycle is near its maximum," Randall says. "So much for expectations."....

When AIM was launched in 2007, the underlying cause of NLCs was still unknown. Researchers knew they formed 83 km above Earth's surface where the atmosphere meets the vacuum of space—but that's about all. AIM quickly filled in the gaps.....

One of the greenhouse gases that has become more abundant in Earth's atmosphere since the 19th century is methane. "When methane makes its way into the upper atmosphere, it is oxidized by a complex series of reactions to form water vapor," says Russell. "This extra water vapor is then available to grow ice crystals for NLCs."

The early start of the 2013 season appears to be caused by a change in atmospheric "teleconnections."

"Half-a-world away from where the northern NLCs are forming, strong winds in the southern stratosphere are altering global circulation patterns," explains Randall. "This year more water vapor is being pushed into the high atmosphere where NLCs love to form, and the air there is getting colder."

"All of this has come as an interesting surprise for us," notes Russell. "When we launched AIM, our interest was in the clouds themselves. But now NLCs are teaching us about connections between different layers of the atmosphere that operate over great distances. Our ability to study these connections will surely lead to new understanding about how our atmosphere works."

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-06-noctilucent-clouds-early.html#jCp

186
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: June 19, 2013, 04:42:02 PM »
Hopefully the following links will be helpful to this discussion:

In regard to food security "improving" due to a greener wetter earth, here is an entire conference that is dealing with climate impact implications, including agriculture:

On May 27-30, 2013, the International Conference on Climate Change Effects occurred in Potsdam. Over 100 papers were presented on climate change impacts including many on agriculture. Take a look at Carter's paper on Northern Hemisphere food security.

Here is the conference papers link: http://climate-impacts-2013.org/index.php?article_id=27

In regard to the world assuming agriculture improvements - most scientists are not. The Chinese do not think so. See: http://english.caas.net.cn/research_update/67347.shtml

USAID does not think it has a positive impact in SE Asia. See: http://www.asianscientist.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/mekong_arcc_climate_study_background_brief.pdf

The International Food Policy Institute does not think so:

Here are some findings from there 2009 report:

"The results of the analysis suggest that agriculture and human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change:

• In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be particularly hard hit.

• Climate change will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions, but irrigated yields for all crops in South Asia will experience large declines.

• Climate change will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops–rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption.

• Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no–climate-change scenario—it will
actually decline relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world."

For the above, see Climate Change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation, 2009: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/pr21.pdf

The World Bank has come out with a 2012 report on the imapcts of a 4C world, it is not wetter and more productive. See:
http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf

The World Bank has come out with a report today on near future climate impacts in Sub Saharan Africa, South Asia and South East Asia. It is titled, "Turn down the heat : climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience" For the full report (English), see:

http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/06/14/000445729_20130614145941/Rendered/PDF/784240WP0Full00D0CONF0to0June19090L.pdf

Finally, in March, it published a report on anticipated near future impacts on Europe and Central Asia. See, "Looking beyond the horizon : how climate change impacts and adaptation responses will reshape agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (English)"

http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/03/22/000356161_20130322155958/Rendered/PDF/761840PUB0EPI00LIC00pubdate03015013.pdf

A greener, wetter, more food productive world with a stable climate or weather system is not in the cards now or in the future as best that most science can forecast.

187
Consequences / Re: Weather and agriculture
« on: June 19, 2013, 03:34:31 PM »
Given the conversation on weather and climate impacts on agriculture and food production, the following conference provides a number of excellent papers on food production, food security, agro-economic impacts, modeling, etc.

On May 27-30, 2013, the International Conference on Climate Change Effects occurred in Potsdam.

There are approximately 100 science based papers that are linked on the website that cover everything from agriculture to hydrology - globally and regionally. There are alot of papers on climate impacts on Europe, Africa and Asia. There are more on modeling and use of modeling to predict future impacts, policy issues, climate change action - to prepare for impacts. It is a treasure trove!

Here is the link: http://climate-impacts-2013.org/index.php?article_id=27

188
On May 27-30, 2013, the International Conference on Climate Change Effects occurred in Potsdam. The peer-reviewed papers and research addressed five major questions:

1) Can we integrate our climate impact knowledge across sectors and disciplines?

2) How certain are we of expected climate impacts?

3) What is still missing in climate impact understanding?

4) How do we bridge the divide between regional and globlal impact studies?

5) Is anyone listening to climate impact change assessments?

There are approximately 100 science based papers that are linked on the website that cover everything from agriculture to hydrology - globally and regionally. There are alot of papers on climate impacts on Europe, Africa and Asia. There are more on modeling and use of modeling to predict future impacts, policy issues, climate change action - to prepare for impacts. It is a treasure trove!

Here is the link: http://climate-impacts-2013.org/index.php?article_id=27

189
@ Jai, Thanks for both papers, excellent material - and sobering implications for the future.

@ Chris, the tables of the "cliff" are compelling and impressive, we get focused on extent, but the area data is telling the melt story. I hope you'll plot these again at month end.

@ Ktonine, thanks for the refresher on the temp, water, salinity information. I did not describe the entire OSU forecast for the next 5 days, a number of areas have lower than -2 C temps. To support that less than -2 C temps have recently been recorded on a number of buoys under the low pressure, or at land stations in parts of the the Russian Arctic under the influence of the low. Changes in bottom warming will likely offset the refreeze effects, but the low may slow melt out...for a few days.

The latest OSU run has the low moving over the CAA and the beginnngs of the high moving in.

We will see... how the rest of the month melts.

190
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 18, 2013, 10:59:07 PM »
Hi Lynn,

This is an alarmist approach to create activism. While the concern remains in regard to CH4 release, (and it should, given what we have seen through the winter), this is using quite a bit of hyerbole and not much science.

The Semelitov comments are from the Laptev and East Siberian Sea survey in 2011. There was little reported from the 2012 survey (I have quite a bit of that on my website), and I need to post more.

Take a look at my web pages for the actual science data - and I will be updating it, once I finish a major project.

A4R

191
Arctic sea ice / Re: Records and oddities
« on: June 18, 2013, 07:10:48 AM »
The British MET is going to study why the UK weather has been so weird. It has been some of the coldest and wetest weather they've had the last two years. Many of us are familiar with some of the drivers that will be discussed.

Here is the BBC link:

Met Office experts meet to analyse 'unusual' weather patterns

By Matt McGrath, Environment correspondent, BBC News
17 June 2013 Last updated at 20:41 ET

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22937375

192
Given the OSU 5 day model we will not see alot of surface melt in the CAB, temps below -2 C flow back and forth with the lows.

http://polarmet.osu.edu/nwp/animation.php?model=arctic_wrf&run=00&var=plot001

193
Developers Corner / Google Earth Mapping
« on: June 17, 2013, 05:46:26 PM »
I am attempting to take the AMRS2 imagery and overlay it in Google Earth and am using the AMRS2 tiff file.

So far, I have played with OkMap, Maptiler, and Geotiff GUI, but have not gotten farther than having OkMap getting it into a Google Earth kmz, but not having the correct coordinates as the initial points in Google Earth - which centers somewhere in Africa - not 90 N.

Any suggestions?


194
I ran across a blog that looked at the heat release that occurred during the fragmentation event this spring. The point of the comments and physics (not my field), is that huge amounts of energy were released from the Arctic waters in this process through the winter.

I am left thinking about whether this release of energy from warmer water before refreeze in each event may lower the amount of latent heat or energy that would cause bottom melt through the summer.

The title of the comments is: Arctic Ocean sensible heat loss

The link is: http://mallemaroking.org/arctic-ocean-sensible-heat-loss/

A4R

195
It seems the CAB SLP is continuing for a while despite warming and some record temps around the Arctic.

Attached is the OSU Arctic temp/wind and SLP forecast for 20 June, 2013, 0000 UTC, which sees the low redeveloping, deepening and recentering as a 979 mb storm.

I am speculatng that the coastal high pressures will have to melt the sea ice, increase the SST's and then we will see a break in this pattern, perhaps in mid-July. Time will tell if this is close to reality.

A4R

196
Chris,

Thanks for that very telling update, it portrays the differences clearly.

A4R.

197
Check out the temps in Siberia. They are just nuts.

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif

I think this is partly due to the snow drought that has enabled lower atmospheric warming. The impacts are seen, I think, in the Arctic low. Another impact is what is happening to methane release in Siberia, there are pockets of permafrost release and high concentrations.

While the Russians have been quiet in the media, their forest fire season has been picking up as well, thus conributing soot to the sea ice.


198
Chris,

I should have been more specific:

Page 10: Western and Central Arctic

Summer temperature and ice outlook.

Average air temperatures will be slightly above normal over most locations from June to August
except near normal over the Beaufort Sea. In general, forecast ice events are expected to be
slightly earlier than normal over most locations this summer except near normal over the
southern Beaufort Sea and the Central Arctic.

Beaufort Sea south of 75°N.

Very close pack first-year ice with a trace of old ice within 90 miles of the mainland coast.
Beyond 90 miles of the coast very close pack old ice except very close pack first-year ice with 2
tenths of old ice west of 143°W.

Outlook for June…Close to very close pack ice with areas of open drift or less ice forming north
of the consolidated ice along Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and west of Banks Island during the second
week.

Outlook for July…Close to very close pack ice with large areas of open drift or less ice north of
Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and west of Banks Island. Ice melting completely within 90 miles north of
the mainland coast east of 145°W and west of Banks Island during the second week. Ice
becoming open drift or less ice within 90 miles of the Alaskan Coast west of 145°W at the end of
the month. Close to very close pack ice north of 72°N.

Outlook for August…Open water within 120 miles north of the mainland coast east of 145°W.
Open drift or less ice within 120 miles of the coast west of 145°W. Beyond 120 miles of the coast
close pack ice.

Outlook for September…Open water within 120 miles north of the mainland coast. Beyond 120
miles north of the coast close pack ice except open drift or less ice west of 145°W.

Page 11:  Arctic Ocean north of 75°N.

Very close pack old and first-year ice.

Outlook for July…Very close pack ice.

Outlook for August…Close to very close pack ice becoming open drift or less ice west of 145°W
during the second week.

Outlook for September…East of 140°W close to very close pack ice. West of 140°W open drift
or less ice.

The report does not cover the Russian or Nordic Arctic.

199
SATire,

The patterns this year are very different. I'm on the verge of doing a mid June status post, in 2012 the whole pack was warm anomalies for the first 2 weeks of June. Now in 2013 the last two weeks have shown a -4degC cold anomaly over Beaufort, with less warm across the rest of the pack.

I think the Laptev low concentration patch is real and isn't due to melt ponds. Melt ponds in Beaufort may have been retarded this year due to the cold.

The HYCOM plots Wanderer posts support what I'm wondering, if we'll see a very odd shape to the pack, with substantial recession in Laptev, but less recession in Beaufort as compared to 2012.

I'm totally unable to say how this season will work out, which makes it more exciting than a straightforward rapid melt.

Chris, what you are beginning to notice and articulate is working toward the North American Ice Service initial outlook. The link to the pdf is in the NAIS thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,368.msg7158.html#msg7158

The pdf link is:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/special/nais_forecasts/2013/graphics/outlook/nais_seasonal_outlook_2013.pdf

I am not sure I agree with all of their forecast, but the general idea seems to be what we are seeing start playing out.

200
I think the snow drought in the CAA and Siberia this spring is the major contributor to the snow melt anomaly in Siberia, CAA and Alaska, that is now contributing to the heating we are observing in Alaska and Siberia, which in turn is impacting ice melt.

Attached is the UCL May 16, 2013 30 day (April-May) and 90 day (February-May) Arctic Snow Precip anomaly maps and the current snow and ice map from Nasa NEO.

The UCL drought mapping site is: http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html?map=%2Fwww%2Fdrought%2Fweb_pages%2Fdrought.map&program=%2Fcgi-bin%2Fmapserv&root=%2Fwww%2Fdrought2%2F&map_web_imagepath=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_imageurl=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_template=%2Fdrought.html


The NEO mapping site is: http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/Search.html?group=50

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