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Messages - Apocalypse4Real

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51
Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El NiƱo, the aftermath
« on: July 18, 2016, 04:32:08 PM »
Decided to blog on Nino 3.4 SST's and what it looks like when we change the base by using the NCDC SST data. The SST data goes back to 1854. The difference is attached for 1981-2010 vs 1854-1883 SSTs and anomalies.

The blog link is: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/super-el-nino-over-perhaps-not-base.html

A4R

52
Neven,

Nicely done intro and summary. For some reason Twitter won't let me comment on the ASI page, so you might want to give the link to "Paddy" Also much of the imagery is captured from the Alaska Interagency website and their lightning detection network.

A4R

53
ASLR: Thanks for looking.

Neven: It is an unexpected honor to have something posted on the site.

A4R

54
Interesting photos ASLR, where were they taken - do you know?

A4R

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 14, 2016, 03:26:26 PM »
The high comes after a cold front moves through the Arctic Ocean dispersing the ice into the Alaskan coast, and accompanied with 20-30 mph winds. Here is the Barrow special weather statement. There is also a small craft advisory for most of the Arctic Ocean coastal areas. This will shred the last sea ice.

 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 12PM AKDT FRI

... SEA ICE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST FRIDAY MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 MPH BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING FRIDAY.

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 14, 2016, 04:58:06 AM »
We just hit new all time high temps for the Alaskan Arctic coast this afternoon - 84F at Alpine and Deadhorse. A cold front is expected to shred the Arctic Ocean ice north of Barrow, AK.

See the blog post: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/all-time-high-heat-for-alaska-arctic.html

57
Hi Neven,

I'd welcome your reporting it...Will you kindly give "honorable mention"?

It is a major change and the details are on my blog.

A4R

58
I have just finished a long blog post on the massive increase in thunderstorm and lightning activity over the Arctic from 1915 to 2016. What has happened with activity during the last two years has no parallel in the lightning database.

We are seeing effects due to sea ice melt that are enabling storms to generate cloud to ground strikes over 600 miles into the ice pack... or what used to be ice....

Here is the link: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/iced-lightning-lightning-strikes-at-80.html



59
Science / Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« on: July 08, 2016, 10:36:26 PM »
Global CO2 was above 404 ppm for May 2016. The 5 year and 10 year comparison trends continue to accelerate despite the end of El Nino.

See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/monthly-global-co2-spikes-above-404-ppm.html


60
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 08, 2016, 10:05:34 PM »
El Nino has increased Amazon basin drought. The fire season will be extreme. There are already more fires than 2015.

See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/el-nino-creates-amazon-drought-and.html


61
Permafrost / New IASI Methane Spike Feb 20 2016
« on: February 22, 2016, 03:09:50 PM »
METOP 1-B IASI smashed through the last spike to hit 3096 PPB on Feb 20 2016 am.
http://megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/

My site has the images - not time to add here.

62
Science / NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 26, 2015, 11:45:57 PM »
Besides the NOAA ESRL Global CO2 average breaking through 400 ppm for the first time, the decadal global CO2 increase was above 21 ppm for a 10 year period for the first time in the record.

There is more at http://megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/



63
Arctic sea ice / Sea Ice Prediction Workshop 2015
« on: January 17, 2015, 02:24:56 AM »
As part of the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative, there will be a Sea Ice Prediction Workshop at the University of Reading in April, 2015.

Here the link: http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wcrp/pcpi/meetings/1228-seaice-reading2015#faqnoanchor


64
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: January 14, 2015, 02:00:41 PM »
Wipneus,

Thanks for sharing your resources and talents on tracking ice. From your observations and the IR imagery, it seems the sea ice is more unstable and moving this year - despite the lack of Fram discharge. It seems that the subsurface ocean temps and winds is having an impact on ice formation and stability across the Arctic basin.

A4R

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« on: January 13, 2015, 02:15:36 PM »
The Beaufort has been fractured since 112714, and has continued to refracture since.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 13, 2015, 02:00:08 PM »
The Beaufort was broken up by Nov 27 2014, and has gone through waves of fracturing since. Here is the 112714 view.

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« on: January 13, 2015, 04:49:50 AM »
The METOP-1 AVHRR shows major collapse north of the Nares Strait, I do not recall seeing this previously in mid-January.

A4R

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 13, 2015, 04:41:00 AM »
The attached is the Metop 1 AVHRR image of the Nares Strait sea ice collapse over the last few days. I do not recall seeing this in January in the past.

A4R

69
Consequences / Re: Arctic Summer Sea Ice transition
« on: November 03, 2014, 05:29:47 AM »
For what its worth, Peter Wadhams gave a presentation today, making his case for a an ice free month in 2020.

An excerpt follows:

"No models here," Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. "This is data."

Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.

This data shows ice volume "is accelerating downward," Wadhams said. "There doesn't seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.

"By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. ... (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free."

See: http://www.adn.com/article/20141102/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-un-releases-climate-report

70
Permafrost / Re: This is not good.
« on: November 02, 2014, 03:09:32 PM »
Hi Grey-Wolf,

I am not questioning or debating Shakhova and Semiletov's findings, nor permafrost melt impacts on methane release from pockets or bacterial action. I have blogged on the findings of the SWERUSC-3 expedition and their findings this summer (see below). There is a reason to be concerned about  Laptev ESS release potential, but that is not related to what I am critiquing in my comments.

Nor am I questioning refreeze, or changes in OH over Siberia or the Arctic Ocean areas during fall and winter. That is also well documented in the research.

There is a difference between a 12 hour spike - which is weather related, and a large release from sea bed sources, which will be trackable in the IASI imagery from low altitude into the 600 mb boundary layer - and which will have an noticeable impact on global mean methane.

See:
http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-methane-releases-at-laptev.html

http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/08/swerus-c-3-more-arctic-methane-found.html

http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/09/swerus-c-3-second-methane-release.html

71
Permafrost / Re: METOP IASI Global Mean Methane January to October, 2014
« on: November 02, 2014, 02:53:37 PM »
vidaloo,

There are only three days of imagery available at any time, it is not archived. There are no csv or text files of the data. To create Methanetracker, Omar Cabrera took each image and pulled the locational and CH4 reading data for each point, which was a fair amount of coding.

Crandles,

Thanks for the perspective on the historical rate increase. It is of concern. I am interested in what an El Nino will do to that rate in the coming years, if one develops. Methane increase rates have declined since 1984, but there is variability in the pattern with increases and decreases correlating with El Nino, in the WDCGG monthly data.

72
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: November 02, 2014, 04:03:57 AM »
There are alot of things missed in the messiness of the current global CO2 mean based upon just glancing at the MLO numbers. While MLO is useful, it misses the high Arctic concentrations, especially those at lower altitudes than 666 mb.

The first image is METOP IASI 2-A CO2 for Oct 30 2014 for 12-24 hrs at 672 mb. It approximates the ESRL mb reading environment.

The second image is the same time period, just at a much lower altitude to portray the higher readings.

73
Permafrost / METOP IASI Global Mean Methane January to October, 2014
« on: November 02, 2014, 03:44:55 AM »
After long muttering about doing this, I decided to blog the global mean methane results from collecting the METOP IASI 2-A imagery for the last couple of years.

In summary, during January to October 2014, global mean methane, as reported by the EUMETSAT METOP IASI instrument, jumped significantly above last year's readings. Global mean methane year to date, as measured by Metop 2-A IASI through October, 2014 climbed to 1807.80 ppb or 6.38 ppb above 2013.

There is more detail - dekadal and monthly data. Here is the link: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/11/global-mean-methane-moves-up.html

74
Permafrost / Re: This is not good.
« on: November 02, 2014, 03:40:27 AM »
I appreciate Robert Scribbler's description of factors that are in play in Arctic methane release.

However, I am not supportive of the use of one highest range reading of one 12 hour period in the METOP IASI to shape the conversation that this is related to Arctic Methane release. The is a presumption that the image somehow tells us that is where the spike occurred, in reality it does not.

I have blogged further on this issue: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/11/methane-spikes-lots-of-hype-no-long.html

A4R

75
Permafrost / Re: Dialling back on the methane scare stories.
« on: November 02, 2014, 03:28:56 AM »
I concur with the dialing back on methane scare stories. The recent 2666 ppb spike on October 26, 2014 triggered an AMEG post that was also commented on by Robert Scribbler.

After some thought, I felt it time to respond. In reality, hype about spikes "dragon's breath" sensationalize rare events over the methane increase trends that matter. The spike was a 12 hour event, that barely makes a blip in the 10 day (dekadal) mean.

I blogged on this issue in response to Scribbler: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/11/methane-spikes-lots-of-hype-no-long.html

I think we have to stay closer to solid science and data.

A4R

76
Permafrost / Re: Methanetracker.org
« on: November 02, 2014, 03:06:29 AM »
The Methanetracker.org server filled and the funding for the conversion was not forthcoming. It is a sad loss.

A4R

77
Science / Arctic Ocean is Venting CO2 in ESS
« on: August 07, 2014, 01:37:23 PM »
Here is an update from the SWERUS-C3 Expedition that also reports CO2 venting into the atmosphere from the Laptev/East Siberian Sea.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/08/swerus-c-3-more-arctic-methane-found.html


78
Permafrost / Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« on: August 07, 2014, 01:34:17 PM »
SWERUS-C3 expedition continues to find methane leaking from the sea floor, but now also CO2 that is venting to the atmosphere.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/08/swerus-c-3-more-arctic-methane-found.html



79
Permafrost / Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« on: July 23, 2014, 08:20:01 PM »
I've added a new blogpost updating the information on the megaflare.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-methane-releases-at-laptev.html


80
Permafrost / Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« on: July 23, 2014, 08:18:55 PM »
Thanks Jim,

I'll watch later - after I get through the Shakhova interview.

A4R

81
Permafrost / Re: Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« on: July 23, 2014, 02:24:34 AM »
Thanks ghoti,

I added that resource into my blog post.

A4R

82
Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: July 22, 2014, 11:30:11 PM »
See my summary of SWERUS-C3 resources for following their progress and more:

http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-arctic-methane-research-underway.html


83
Permafrost / Major Arctic Methane Research - SWERUS-C3
« on: July 22, 2014, 11:25:35 PM »
While some have posted recently that there is little news on Arctic methane research this summer, that does not seem to be the case.

I have summarised the major expeditions and resources that will be of interest, especially the SWERUS-C3 expedition that is now underway till October.

http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/07/major-arctic-methane-research-underway.html

They have already found 100 new methane seeps in the Laptev Sea.

This research seems to warrant its own topic, since I think we will be following it for some months to come.

84
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: June 02, 2014, 04:25:27 AM »
MLO CO2 definitely crashed through 401 ppm for a second month, and may be on track for June, 2014 to hold above 401 ppm as well.

The NOAA/ESRL preliminary MLO May, average is 401.86 ppm

The Scripps Keeling Curve preliminary MLO May average is 401.76 ppm.

I've posted more on the blog at: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/

85
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: May 25, 2014, 05:12:06 AM »
The year will not be over 400 ppm, however we will likely have 2 months over an average of 400 ppm readings at MLO.

A4R.

86
Science / Re: Transformational Climate Science
« on: May 25, 2014, 05:08:25 AM »
Jim,

Thanks for your time and effort to attend the Exeter Conference and share its resources. They will be handy for a paper I am writing.

A4R.

87
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: April 30, 2014, 02:22:35 PM »
Wili,

We will end up above 401 ppm. The averages for both Scripps and ESRL are well above 401, and the last two days of reporting will not change that.

We are still in an increasing rate of CO2 concentration in 2014 vs 2013.

88
Permafrost / Re: What is Happening under a Cloud of Methane?
« on: April 29, 2014, 01:36:35 PM »
Global mean methane hits 1810 ppb on April 27, 2014 which is 12 ppb higher than the same date in 2013. The same level was not reached until July 31, 2013, amidst the major Siberian forest fire outbreaks.

For more, see http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/


89
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 29, 2014, 12:54:38 PM »
In regard to Arctic Sea Ice conditions in MYI, it is fracturing as much as the FYI elsewhere in the AO. Below is the NOAA-19 AVHRR IR AO/NP Canadian Arctic view. The ice has fractured often across the Beaufort and Canadian Arctic through this winter as depicted here. (Click the image for the higher resolution).

Also below is the NP shot fromm IceBridge for April 27, 2014, taken by James K. Yungel. Note the fracturing, and also the refreezing leads.

An increased radiation on the ice will have an impact on melt through the summer.

90
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: April 28, 2014, 06:03:43 AM »
Mauna Loa monthly CO2 average on track for 401.25 ppm for April, 2014.

Bosbas, the April 13, 2014 ESRL annual change of 4.01 is the six highest in the MLO/ESRL weekly average record. The higher change readings happened during the effects of El Nino, such as 1997-1998, which we have not yet experienced in 2014.

I anticipate a 402-403 ppm monthly average for May, 2014.

91
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 18, 2014, 02:06:01 PM »
Jim,

The update is invaluable, and many thanks, I am using it in a presentation this morning, and you will receive credit.

A4R

92
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: April 18, 2014, 01:44:05 PM »
pmt111,

Many thanks, I have the data - but your graph is a terrific example of how CO2 rate of increase is accelerating for a general audience.

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 17, 2014, 12:45:08 PM »
Jim,

Thanks for your ongoing work to post the CT Area and ISIJ daily changes. I regularly check your postings.

I have a request, I am presenting a paper on Friday and wanted to use your bar graph: Arctic Sea Ice Area Maximum/Minimum Day, plus Days Spent below 15-3 km2 1979 - 2013 (including Decadal Averages).

I was wondering if you might update that for 2014 since we have already reached sea ice maximum and lost over 1 million km2? It will be part of my argument on sea ice change and climate impacts section.

You will be cited as source, it is a faculty research presentation - so it is expected.

A4R



94
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: April 17, 2014, 02:36:45 AM »
Pmt111,

Is your chart in reply#194 posted anywhere on a website?

I was going through this same data this week noticing the same trend and wanted to create this.

However, it would be more efficient for a paper I am presenting Friday to cite yours. I need to footnote or cite a source - and would like to give you credit.

A4R

95
Permafrost / Re: What is Happening under a Cloud of Methane?
« on: April 08, 2014, 03:47:30 PM »
New IASI data available. Global mean methane hits 1807 ppb - 7 ppb higher than last year for April 5th! Same level not reached until July 15 in 2013!

96
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: April 06, 2014, 11:04:59 PM »
Something else that will have an impact in the short and long term is global drought.

Jim Kim of the World Bank, in an April 3 interview, stated that climate change impacts on water will translate into food shortages in this coming decade.

"The water issue is critically related to climate change. People say that carbon is the currency of climate change. Water is the teeth. Fights over water and food are going to be the most significant direct impacts of climate change in the next five to 10 years. There's just no question about it."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/03/climate-change-battle-food-head-world-bank

I have posted on the drought severity for the past year in today's blog post.

http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/

97
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 31, 2014, 06:02:41 AM »
The article draws on the IPCC WDII now available on the IPCC website.

98
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 31, 2014, 05:56:56 AM »
AbruptSLR,

Thanks for all your work on this. I was wondering what you were using to created the tropical prediction graphics for April 8 and 9?

The OISST is showing expanding areas of above normal SST in the central Pacific. Attached is the latest for March 29.

99
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: March 25, 2014, 01:07:47 PM »
Chris in comment #73, I appreciate what Robert Scribbler has posted on his blog, however the ice has been messy since January. It was fracturing across the Beaufort during that period and in the Laptev. I will post on that later, too busy at work for the moment.

Attached is a Beaufort image from January 28 to illustrate. Also attached is a CAB image from January 27 which gives a glimpse of major fracturing across the basin.

Jim, your Laptev image is pretty amazing, the offshore wind from Siberia has been creating these openings along the coast for while, making the ice pack farther out in the CAB fracture.

100
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: March 16, 2014, 10:59:44 PM »
AbruptSLR,

You beat me to the punch on this, but here is more. If you read the discussion on the MEI page, Klaus Wolter gives the detailed breakdown of his more bullish forecast of an early El Nino. I think he anticipates it appearing early, he commented that he expected to provide another update sooner than the first week of April. One more item, he says the SOI has been the noisiest of the El Nino indicators, so not so sure he is putting alot of weight on where it currently reads.

For his detailed analysis, see:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Also, for what it is worth, I compiled a comparison of the 1950 to 2014 MEI, normal 3 month ENSO and the monthly ENSO indices. It was a bit of work but worth the time.

Here are the recent readings in comparison:



   

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