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Messages - kiwichick16

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 08:33:07 AM »
@  Arcticktok      ….yeah that's a WOW  dude ….or dudess  !!

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:03:27 PM »
@  blumenkraft     ….we got here because lots of people didn't take this seriously …...and it appears many still aren't

Guess we just got lucky having a woman in charge in New Zealand  ….not to say that other countries haven't handled it well also

good luck everyone

3
September average  3 -  3.5  million sq  kms

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 16, 2020, 01:23:13 AM »
September daily minimum  2.5 - 2.75  million sq kms

International commerce …..and particularly aviation ….looks like it will struggle to ramp up again for several months yet.

The current pandemic could cause lasting climatic effects long-term if it accelerates the transition to a low carbon economy

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 15, 2020, 09:02:24 AM »
@  pauldry600......2012 may remain at outlier....but for how much longer?

Current CO2 @  Mauna Loa  416 ppm

34 ppm to 450 ppm  ….. 3ppm  per year x  11.333 years = 34 ppm

450 ppm = Tipping Point ???

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 19, 2019, 06:55:01 AM »
IF   .....the 2020 average drops to 2million sq kms  .....and we have an  extreme loss  .....similar to 2012 ...then we could be close to 1 million  sq kms  at the minimum.

The 2020's are only 7 months away.

7
all well and good .....just missed the bit about the rate of GHG emissions being 10x (???) greater than any historic record   

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 13, 2019, 10:55:58 AM »
not sure if this is the right place but.......CO2  has hit 415 ppm at Mauna Loa for the first time ever

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2019, 10:52:47 AM »
the ice melt will happen much faster than the rebound of the land.....for example parts of Scotland are still rising as an after effect of the ice sheets melting

https://www.nature.scot/landforms-and-geology/scotlands-rocks-landforms-and-soils/landforms/coasts/present-and-future-sea-levels

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 05:11:59 PM »
@ dnem....it was meant as an ironic comment......the opposite of comforting

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 05:40:41 AM »
@  Sark    ...we probably have years of stability yet.......perhaps as many as 12 years....

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 01:27:11 AM »
DON"T PANIC  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YET.

13
@  Sleepy.......+1

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 30, 2019, 06:54:53 AM »
2016 ice melt  28th April -  3rd June = 2.06 million sq kms

divided by 36 days = 57,222 sq kms per day   .....unless I stuffed up the maths

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: April 28, 2019, 06:55:03 AM »
losing  a million  sq kms per decade @ at the annual minimum in September.......at that rate the Arctic will be ice free sometime in the 2030's  ....if not before

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:20:16 AM »
@  Oren......WOW!!

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 11, 2018, 11:26:48 PM »
la nina/ neutral year .....yet again flirting with lowest on record levels .....Miocene here we come?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« on: April 17, 2018, 12:06:33 AM »
if the gulf stream continues to weaken ......or shutdown ......won't that significantly reduce warm water transport to the arctic?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 13, 2018, 01:47:39 AM »
Thanks  el cid  @  #300   

That graph must have a significant trend line

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2018, 08:46:40 AM »
its still , theoretically, summer down here.......although it has cooled off somewhat in the last couple of weeks

NZ had its hottest January on record this year

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2017, 11:41:43 PM »
Thanks Pavel.......looks like there is a spot near the Arctic coast of Alaska that is approaching 30 degrees C above normal

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 03, 2017, 08:13:37 PM »
@  gerontocrat......moving back towards the pack......agreed.....but still well below average

26
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 17, 2017, 10:28:26 PM »
looks like parts of the Ross Ice Sheet are close to + 20 degrees

27
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 02, 2017, 08:30:36 AM »
September is Spring down here..........daylight hours are rapidly increasing.....even now .. 02/08.... we are getting one minute extra per day

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 01, 2017, 07:20:09 AM »
@  Oren......thanks for that map.......are the Chukchi and East Siberian seas really that shallow?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 20, 2017, 08:33:51 AM »
@  tt....thanks for all your good work.....it is much appreciated by us lesser mortals!!

re Bering Sea Storm.....is there precedent for storms at this time of year......or are we seeing something new ?

30
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 19, 2017, 08:04:53 AM »
30 days of melt season left??

@ 100,000 sq kms per day ??

=  zero sea ice  20 th February 2017  ??????????????????????????

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 19, 2017, 07:59:15 AM »
great map logicman........interesting to see ice blocking Hudson Bay!!

32
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2017, 12:03:50 PM »
@ tigertown ....yes .....sorry ....I was referring to the post by Frankendoodle .....saying 50 thousand ish per day would take us to a new record low


33
changed to less than 2 million sq kms

34
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2017, 06:02:41 AM »
@ tigertown.....so that's 3 days times 50 ish

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: January 10, 2017, 03:26:05 PM »
@  Jim....get out while your house is still worth something.......nobody knows when the run on the bank will start but the smart money gets out first

36
Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: January 09, 2017, 11:17:53 AM »
thanks for that  aslr.........30 mm sea level rise per year would certainly get my attention

but have I missed it, or has the increase in sea level rise from 3mm / year to 5 mm/year not been verified yet????

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2017, 09:32:40 PM »
thanks for that  FOW......brilliantly clear map!!

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2017, 08:49:01 PM »
@  bill fothergill ......thanks for that Bill

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2017, 08:06:16 PM »
@  bill fothergill............looking at your longterm graph this is perhaps an argument to be made that AGW started approximately 8000 years ago with the spread of agriculture as witnessed by the significant spike in temperature at that time .....and that our activities since then have held the temperature up higher than they would have been without our ever increasing disruption of the planets ecosystems

http://history.aip.org/climate/impacts.htm

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 05, 2017, 09:30:10 AM »
if you look at the long term temperature graph ....for global average temperature...the step up after the 1998 El Nino is obvious...only the la Nina years of 1999 and 2000 are below the previous global record year 1997.......and since 1998 the positive feedbacks have started to have an increasing effect

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« on: January 03, 2017, 09:43:47 PM »
it would appear we were lucky that August 2016 was only 22nd warmest

42
2-2.25

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 01, 2017, 11:29:24 PM »
@  sigmetnow......thanks for that post.....particularly the graph showing annual temperature average at Utqiagvik

amazing range from the coldest year in the 1960's ...

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Choosing a Base to compare ASI lost on PIOMAS Volume
« on: December 27, 2016, 05:14:31 AM »
the only valid period offered is 1981-2010......as that is the only 30 year period on offer

....otherwise I would have suggested  1979-2008

as I'm sure most people know  30 years is the accepted time period for validating changes in climate

45
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 19, 2016, 02:00:01 PM »
followed by much lower average Spring temperatures over Australia .....admittedly only down to the long term average

http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/tmean.aus.0911.29881.hires.png

46
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 19, 2016, 01:54:40 PM »
Winter rainfall over Australia was extreme this year ...possibly caused by the southern ocean lows moving slightly northward
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/rranom.aus.0608.58473.hires.png

48
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 15, 2016, 07:28:41 PM »
@ tigertown......re Weddell Sea ....my understanding is that the peninsula protects it from the prevailing westerly winds

49
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 13, 2016, 05:22:00 AM »
wow!

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice free predictions and their uncertainty
« on: December 07, 2016, 08:25:09 PM »
what would Trump's reaction be if he was told Wipneus's  graph was actually US retail sales , for example?

or the number of people booking into his hotels?

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