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Messages - Yuha

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Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 10, 2021, 10:11:14 PM »
Tesla may actually be more resistant to a stock market crash than some think.

If a major recession arrives, investors may be pulling their money from the stock market causing a crash and they will then look for other better places to put their money in. Keeping the money in cash may not be a good option if inflation picks up. Traditionally gold has been a safe haven causing gold to go up often as stocks go down. Today many think Bitcoin as the new gold, which may be why Bitcoin has been going up recently.

An alternative to gold or Bitcoin is to look for companies that will survive the recession and come out as a winner at the end of it. Many see Tesla as such a company. In Q2 2020, Tesla's Fremont factory was closed for about half the quarter, much of the world was in lockdown and global supply chains were in turmoil, but Tesla still managed to make a small profit. I think this convinced many of Tesla's ability to survive a recession. Moreover, Tesla now has about $20B of cash to help them through tough times.

This, combined with the high expected future earnings I mentioned in my previous post, is what I see as an explanation for Tesla's current share price.

None of the above is an investment advice.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 10, 2021, 09:35:23 PM »
Comparing the P/E ratio of a fast growing company that has just recently crossed into profitability to the P/E ratio of more established companies is like saying that a temperature of 10C is 100 times warmer than 0.1C. In both cases, zero is not an absolute minimum making ratios of numbers near zero rather meaningless.

Put in another way, Tesla's share price is not based on earnings last year or this year but more like in 2025. For example, suppose you expect Tesla to earn $25B on a $250B revenue in 2025 (and I have seen this kind of numbers in analyses). Using Amazon's current P/E ratio of about 90 and assuming 1B shares would give a share price of about $2250. Paying $880 now for a share that will be $2250 in 2025 seems a decent investment.

EDIT: This is not an investment advice.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 10, 2020, 09:15:33 PM »
The Tesla question:  if someone else advances battery technology significantly, does Tesla lose part of their moat?  What's the material impact?

Quantumscape (backed by VW) to bring solid state battery to production by 2024?

First, if the technology is truly superior, Tesla can probably either buy the batteries or buy a license to the technology. Being a major investor might give VW a small head start but not a monopoly since QS is a public company.

Second, Quantumscape does not appear to be a big threat to Tesla at the moment. Jordan Giesige of The Limiting Factor channel has a video commenting on Quantumscape's recent live stream:

He basically says that Quantumscape's batteries are about equivalent to what Tesla presented on the Battery Day, except 4-5 years behind.

Third, Tesla's true moat is not any specific technologies but their ability to innovate and execute faster than others. For example, there's a video where Jordan Giesige interviews the CEO of Soteria which has developed a technology for making liquid electrolyte batteries as safe as solid electrolyte batteries:

The CEO says that the technology might be in vehicles in 3-5 years, 3 years for Tesla, 5 years for other manufacturers.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 08, 2020, 11:39:31 AM »
Globally, November 2020 was the warmest November on record, by a clear margin.

Nick Stokes is reporting a very warm, though not record warm November:

Nasa GISS November data is not out yet but Jan-Oct was at +1.033C, just behind the record year 2016 which was at +1.038C through October. Since November and December 2016 were not exceptionally warm (+0.90C and +0.86C), a warm November makes a new record likely. The betting odds are currently at 71.5%:

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 12, 2020, 04:57:04 AM »
I will defer this for another year to see where the next year brings us.  If, by then, the Pandemic has ended and solar roof has not taken off as a product, I will admit that GSY, in this specific case, has the right of it and Musk never intended to have a solar business, just to protect his pocket and the pocket of his family.

This is what was said about the solar roof in the 3Q2020 earnings call:

The fourth question is, what are the remaining constraints to be solved for Solar Roof installations to ramp significantly? Carl?

Carl Peterson -- Director of Engineering

Yes. I'm Carl Peterson. I'm on the Solar Roof engineering and installation. The biggest constraint right now in Solar Roof ramp is getting enough installers on board and trained and experienced.

We've made a lot of progress on this in Q3, and we're continuing to hire. The next opportunity is improving the material flow on the job site. We've talked about this a lot in the factory as well that setting up the right packaging, kitting so that every installer on the roof has the parts they need at their fingertips. Also, we've had great response from third-party roofing contractors as they're ramping up installations for Solar Roof on their customer homes, which is a big source of future growth.

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, Carl.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I mean here's the way to think about that product, in my opinion. You have to say, I think, what do you want the world to look like? When you look around the neighborhood in the future, decade from now, what do you want? What products are going to make your life better? What future do you want? And I think a future where we've got beautiful roofs generating energy that are tough and resilient and better in every way than a regular roof and alive with energy, that's the future we want. Solar Roof is a killer product. This will become obvious next year.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: November 06, 2020, 03:26:25 PM »
Australian states and utilities go bananas over big battery storage
6 November 2020

At 300MW and 450MWh, the Victorian Big Battery will be more than double the size of the recently expanded Tesla big battery at Hornsdale, also owned and operated by Neoen, and it will be one of the biggest in the world. But more importantly, it is just the latest of more than a dozen big battery projects to be formally announced in the last few months, with many more in the pipeline.

This week the Northern Territory Labor government opened the formal tender process for its 35MW Darwin big battery (with about half an hour storage) that will displace significant amounts of gas generation and allow for more rooftop and utility scale solar.

The South Australia government this week signed a 10 year electricity supply deal with Zen Energy that will see the 100MW and 100MWh Playford big battery built near Port Augusta , along with the 280MW Cultana solar farm at Whyalla.

Last week, Transgrid announced it would build a 50MW and 75MWh big battery at Wallgrove in western Sydney, which will provide synthetic inertia and other important grid services, and will be operated by Infigen Energy and which will also serve to “firm” up that company’s wind portfolio.

Last month, the Western Australia government announced a 100MW and 2000MWh big battery to be built near Kwinana, again helping displace gas generation and reducing the wear and tear on ageing fossil fuel generators as they cope with the increasing amounts of rooftop solar and large scale wind and solar.

The NSW government in August announced it would support the construction of four new big batteries, including a 30MW battery at the Sapphire renewable energy hub,  a 50MW battery at the proposed New England solar farm, a 12MW battery thought to be slated for Goldwind’s Gullen Range wind and solar hub, and 6MW of distributed batteries aggregated into a virtual power plant.

Another two big batteries may also be supported by the NSW government, depending on the outcome of feasibility studies.

The ACT government in September announced two new big batteries will be built as a result of its latest tender to push it beyond 100 per cent renewables as it seeks to electricity transport and buildings and further reduce emissions. They are a 50MW battery with two hours storage from Neoen and a 10MW/20MWh battery from Global Power Generation.

The re-elected ACT Labor government has also committed to building a 250MW big battery in Canberra to boost its own local network, and increase the amount of wind and solar power produced under contract that is matched with its usage.

AGL has contracted Maoneng to build 200MW and 400MWh of big batteries in NSW, including one at the Sunraysia solar farm, and is already building a 100MW and 150MWh big battery to be positioned next to the proposed Wandoan solar farm in Queensland, and has flagged a big battery of up to 500MW at the site of the soon to be closed Liddell coal generator.

In all, AGL plans up to 1,200MW of battery storage by 2024, and heralded the “dawn” of the battery age, which it describes as a “game changer” for the grid.

Origin Energy is also looking at five different battery storage possibilities, including at up to four of its existing fossil fuel generators, and a separate 300MW project at Morgans in South Australia, but says the plans are hostage to federal government market intervention, and particularly its controversial, and secretive, Underwriting New Generation Investment scheme. Infigen has echoed those complaints.

Alinta and Fortescue are looking at more big batteries in the expanded Pilbara grid that will supply most of the  big iron ore mining operations in the region and enough solar capacity to power the operations during daytime hours. Alinta already operates the highly successful 30MW/12MWh Newman battery, which is delivering a payback of less than five years, and making the local grid more reliable.

And, of course, there is the biggest proposal of them all – the massive 20GWh (gigawatt hour) battery to go with the proposed Sun Cable solar farm in the Northern Territory that could deliver power to Singapore via an undersea cable more than 3,700km long.

And let’s not forget the tens of thousands of small batteries being installed at an increasingly rapid rate by households and businesses to store rooftop solar and deliver increased resilience and standalone power, and which are also being aggregated in an increasing number of ever larger virtual power plants which will play an important role in the grid.

Costs of battery storage are coming down. Neoen’s Australian boss Louis de Sambucy said this week that the Victorian big battery will be 15 per cent lower per megawatt hour than just two years ago, and the costs are still falling.

And they are versatile, with one big battery able to perform multiple different functions, including increasing capacity on transmission links, providing emergency security response, frequency control, synthetic inertia, and also simply as a storage device, charging at times of low prices and discharging at times of peak demand, when prices usually rise.

In all, there are about 20 different services in the battery storage “value pack”. But as Neoen’s de Sambucy notes: “They can do a lot of things that are not fully recognised by the market because the marketplace was designed in a certain way.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2020, 10:04:48 PM »
Animation for all of October below

BFTV, thanks for these animations. They are really useful in understanding the progress of freeze (or melt during the summer).

A suggestion: Move the last frame, the one shoving the difference between the beginning and the end, as the first frame because the first frame is the one shown when the animation is off.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 01, 2020, 04:27:08 PM »
Here's more information on the antigen tests:

Fast coronavirus tests: what they can and can’t do

A typical antigen test starts with a health-care professional swabbing the back of a person’s nose or throat — although companies are developing kits that use saliva samples, which are easier and safer to collect than a swab. The sample is then mixed with a solution that breaks the virus open and frees specific viral proteins. The mix is added to a paper strip that contains an antibody tailored to bind to these proteins, if they’re present in the solution. A positive test result can be detected either as a fluorescent glow or as a dark band on the paper strip.

Antigen tests give results in less than 30 minutes, don’t have to be processed in a lab and are cheap to produce. Yet that speed comes with a cost in sensitivity. Whereas a typical PCR test can detect a single molecule of RNA in a microlitre of solution, antigen tests need a sample to contain thousands — probably tens of thousands — of virus particles per microlitre to produce a positive result1. So, if a person has low amounts of virus in their body, the test might give a false-negative result.

When used on people who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 in a standard PCR test, Abbott’s antigen assay correctly spotted the virus in 95–100% of cases if the samples were collected within a week of the onset of symptoms. But that proportion dropped to 75% if samples were taken more than a week after people first showed symptoms. The sensitivity — or the rate of detecting infections correctly — of the other antigen tests used in the United States is between 84% and 98% if a person is tested in the week after showing symptoms.


There are challenges at the start of the infection, when people have low levels of the virus. The answer, says Mina, is frequent testing — done multiple times per week. This could quickly identify infected people, even if the assays are less sensitive than a PCR-based test, because the amount of virus in their noses and throats rises within hours, he says.

Mina and his colleagues have used statistical models to assess this strategy. In a preprint updated on 8 September, they suggest that testing people twice a week with a relatively insensitive test could be more effective at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 than are more-accurate tests done once every two weeks1. Another study that modelled different scenarios for safely reopening university campuses reported similar findings.

Edit: Added link that I accidentally left out. Thanks longwalks1 for pointing out.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 01, 2020, 04:19:55 PM »
Slovakia is testing the whole population using antigen tests.

Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2
Lancet, October 31, 2020

For the mass testing, thousands of testing sites are to be set up across the country and everyone over the age of 10 years—approximately 4 million people—will be asked to attend a testing site and take an antigen test. After being tested, people must wait in a separate disinfected room and, around half an hour later, will be given their results.

Anyone testing positive must remain in strict self-isolation at their home for 10 days, or they can go to a quarantine facility provided by the state. Many shops are being closed and restrictions on movement imposed during the 3-week period of testing with people subject to random spot checks by police. Everyone taking the test will be given a certificate to present if requested. Failure to do so could result in a fine of €1650. The testing is voluntary, but anyone not participating must self-isolate in their homes for 10 days. Breaking this quarantine also carries a fine of €1650.

They will test everyone twice, once this weekend, half on Saturday and half on Sunday, and second time next weekend. This seems to be recommended for antigen test because they may miss infections at an early phase.

The first results are in.

Half of Slovakia's population tested for coronavirus in one day

The defence minister, Jaroslav Naď said on Sunday 2.58 million Slovaks had taken a test on Saturday, and 25,850 or 1% tested positive and must go into quarantine.

The EU country has a population 5.5 million people and aims to test as many people as possible, except for children under 10.


On Sunday, Slovakia reported 2,282 new cases through PCR tests, putting the total at 59,946, not including those identified in the nationwide scheme, and 219 deaths to date.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 28, 2020, 08:43:15 PM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June.

Except a few small differences:

1. Australia is separated from the rest of the world by oceans. Czechia is in the middle of Europe with open borders to several countries.

2. Air travel restrictions in Australia are much stricter.

3. The current 7 day average of daily cases in Australia (not just Melbourne) is 16 and has stayed below 25 for a month. In Czechia, a country with less than half the population of Australia, the 7 day moving average never dropped lower than 42 since mid March.

4. Australia has done nearly twice as many tests per million people than Czechia despite having just 4% of the number of cases per million.

I'm sure there are also other differences in quarantine, testing and tracing procedures but I'm not familiar with the details in either country.

The numbers are from

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 26, 2020, 10:18:06 PM »
The two vehicles that are listed for production at the unannounced facility are the Semi and the Roadster...

Appears this will be a factory designed to make lower volume, more complex vehicles — which have very big batteries. :)

My interpretation of "TBD" is that Tesla has not yet decided where those vehicles will be made. Could be Fremont, Texas or Nevada. Or maybe even a new factory.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 25, 2020, 02:24:13 AM »
The Hornsdale Power Reserve upgrade not only increased capacity but is adding a new type of grid support service, virtual inertial response.

Tesla has developed a ‘rotating machine model’ that provides a ‘virtual inertial response’ to changes of frequency allowing the system to directly mimic synchronous machines. This feature has been implemented on numerous microgrid sites, and it is now available for grid-connected current-source generation.

Neoen (in conjunction with Tesla, AEMO and ElectraNet) will implement a series of detailed testing plans to demonstrate the capability of the expanded facility to provide an inertial response. The testing plans will also further support the interconnector with Victoria, reduce curtailment and facilitate a future update of the Market Ancillary Services Specification and related registration requirements.

Alongside additional power system reliability and continued cost savings to consumers, the expansion will provide an Australian-first large-scale demonstration of the potential for battery storage to provide inertia to the network, which is critical to grid stability and the future integration of renewable energy. This will enable South Australia (SA) to continue to harvest wind and solar resources and support the transition to net 100% renewable energy generation and further drive down electricity prices for all consumers.

Additional inertia within SA should allow for a greatly increased limit on asynchronous generators (i.e. traditional wind and solar) in the state providing immediate benefits to consumers and wind generators through increased supply of cheap renewable energy.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 22, 2020, 08:54:37 PM »
My understanding is that perovskite solar cells are not yet practical because they degrade too fast. Here's a new result adressing that.

Australian researchers say “unusual” breakthrough may solve perovskite solar instability
21 October 2020

One of the key problems preventing progress with perovskite solar cells has been their instability, which often comes down to light-induced phase segregation, in which sunlight, the very source of solar energy, disrupts the carefully arranged composition of elements within mixed-halide perovskites.

But in a report published in the journal Nature Materials on Monday, scientists across the Universities of Melbourne and Sydney, as well as from Monash University in Victoria, have discovered that high-intensity, glaring light can undo the very disruption caused by light at lower intensities.


“What we found is that as you increase the excitation intensity, the local strains in the ionic lattice, which were the original cause of segregation, start to merge together. When this happens, the local deformations that drove segregation disappear.

“On a normal sunny day, the intensity is so low that these deformations are still localised. But if you find a way to increase the excitation above a certain threshold, for example by using a solar concentrator, then segregation disappears.”


Dr Hall says that with this “fundamental work” done, the next step is to put the findings into practice in a device.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 17, 2020, 06:25:31 PM »
China's UHVDC lines have 1.5% losses per 1000km.  Can't really see superconductors really making a lot of difference.   

We already have the tools to connect the dots.

But superconducting cables can achieve high efficiency at a much lower voltage which saves in the size and cost of equipment.

There are already some test cases. For example:

The Ampacity project has been serving Essen’s power grid since March of 2014 and features the world’s longest superconductor cable at 1 kilometre in length. The efficient and space-saving technology transports five times more electricity than conventional cables.

The medium voltage cable, at 10 kV, replaces the previous high voltage 110 kV cable yet transmits the same energy.

  “The consequence of that for a large city centre like Essen is simple” Steinbach says. “For a 110 kV cable to transport energy you have to have a substation more or less the size of a garage. If you replace HV with medium voltage cable you can replace a big 110 kV substation with medium voltage switchgear.”

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 17, 2020, 02:44:08 PM »
This was NOT the case in 2016. There was no massive increase in extent gains at that time or during the entire freezing season. As a result the March 2017 maximum was a record low. What was the difference? I'm not sure.

I seem to recall that in 2016 from October to December there was a series of Atlantic storms entering the Arctic and bringing a lot of heat with them. These can be seen as spikes in the DMI temp chart.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 16, 2020, 01:15:28 PM »
The latest price cut is a typical Elon style marketing move to create some controversy and generate headlines. That's free advertisement for Tesla. Even Lucid probably benefits from it as they get some free advertisement too.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 08, 2020, 04:23:40 PM »
We did not get the new Tesla wiring architecture with the early Model Y. 


If Tesla manage to deliver this in Berlin, then it is going to cut the cost of manufacture again.

They have had nearly 2 years to perfect it and it will be more than 2 years by the time Berlin is ready. The factory is more closely situated to Grohmann, allowing a test line of new assembly equipment with a much faster turnaround than the US or China.

Maybe the wiring architecture is waiting for the rumored new chip. The schedule in this article matches Berlin production quite well:
According to industry news, Broadcom and Tesla are cooperating to develop ultra-large HPC chips for vehicles. They are produced using TSMC’s 7nm process and are the first to use TSMC’s SoW advanced packaging technology. Each 12-inch wafer can only be cut out. 25 chips. Production of the new chips will begin in the fourth quarter, with an initial production of about 2,000 wafers, and it is expected to enter full mass production after the fourth quarter of next year.

It is understood that the HPC chip created by Broadcom for Tesla will become the core computing special application chip (ASIC) for Tesla electric vehicles in the future, which can be used to control and support advanced driver assistance systems, electric vehicle power transmission, and automotive entertainment.
2020/08/17 (Google translated)

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 07, 2020, 11:10:20 AM »
But it will still take time.  I expect 62% to come closer to 100% from 2025, but it will still take a while to get over 50%.  Once they have shifted to 100% EV in 2025 I expect them to also put in taxes and incentives to encourage a much higher roll over of vehicles and a faster phase out of FF vehicles.

It will be interesting to see how the end game plays out in Norway. Will the ICE vehicles hang around until their natural end of life or will they be scrapped early or will they be exported somewhere else?

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 06, 2020, 11:55:10 PM »
62% is really good, but just how far they have to go is a reality check.

As of 2019 Norway had 2.8m passenger and light duty vehicles on the road.  As of May 2020, 290k were plug in and 160k were BEV.  I don't count hybrids in this penetration.

Meaning that BEV represent 5.7% of the total vehicle stock in Norway.

To change that dramatically will take a decade of 62% sales.

Of course, from 2025, in Norway, it will be illegal to sell a new FF vehicle.  So things should pick up pretty rapidly from there.

Those numbers seem too low. According to wikipedia:
As of 30 June 2020, the stock of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles in Norway totaled 420,237 units in use, consisting of 290,436 all-electric passenger cars and vans (including used imports), and 129,801 plug-in hybrids.

The wikipedia source is this site:

So BEVs are already over 10%.

But you are right, it will take time. Only about 5% of the fleet is replaced each year. So Norway might reach 50% BEVs by the end of the decade but not much earlier.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: October 06, 2020, 07:02:48 PM »
Kenya: Red Flag as Swelling Rift Valley Lakes Wreak Havoc
28 September

The lake waters are extending at a high speed, worrying residents and scientists, who seem not to have sufficient explanation as rains have not fallen in huge volumes over the past few months.

Lakes Nakuru, Naivasha, Baringo and Bogoria have expanded to levels not seen in 75 years, with the Water Resources Authority, (WRA) revealing that the phenomenon has affected the quality of water.

WRA attributes the rising water levels to tectonic activities and the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns. WRA says water levels in all the five lakes in the Rift Valley have risen to the highest recorded levels in recent years.


When the Nation visited the park on Sunday, KWS was racing against time to relocate animals among them zebras, rhinos, buffaloes, and gazelles, which are fighting for the limited space in the park.

Acacia trees that used to host baboons have been immersed in the waters, pushing the animals into neighbouring estates. Flamingos and pelicans that used to feed at the shores of the lake have fled.

The raging waters have also invaded KWS rangers' homes, forcing some to relocate to Nakuru town. In Lake Baringo, more than 15 schools bordering the lake may need to be relocated after water levels rose drastically, swallowing adjacent structures.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 02, 2020, 06:50:51 PM »
The article you references is just a news opinion, it's not an article or peer-review.  The author has no credentials and is just a normal reporter. 

That doesn't stop Talha Burki from posting "the origins of SARS" as the title, as if she's the authority on the subject.    ::)

Yes, it is not a peer-reviewed paper. I thought about mentioning that but considered it unnecessary as it should already be clear from the part I quoted. But it is an article in The Lancet.

More importantly, the included quote cites David Robertson, who is an expert. The (peer-revied) paper co-authored by Robertson mentioned in the article is this:

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic
Nature Microbiology, July 2020

EDIT: Changed the tone to less confrontational.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 02, 2020, 12:21:34 PM »
There's more evidence that the virus got out from the Wuhan laboratory than evidence that it mysteriously appeared from an open food market that didn't sell bats.

We know that laboratory was studying Horeshoe bats, and was actively studying novel coronaviruses.

Bats have a high metabolic rate and a highly active immune system, which is why bat viruses have to be particularly good at spreading and/or evading the immune system. Thus a bat virus jumping into another species can be especially dangerous. The same is true for bird viruses, but perhaps a bat virus can jump more easily into another mammal.

That is the reason why bat viruses are studied in labs, and why the bat origins of the virus is no surprise to experts. No need for conspiracy theories beyond that.

Also, the virus probably did not jump from bats to humans directly but through another species, pangolin has been mentioned as a candidate.

Here is a brief article discussing the origins:

The origin of SARS-CoV-2
The Lancet: Infectious Diseases, September 2020

“If the virus had been human-made, that would show in its genome”, counters Robertson. “Besides, if you were going to create a coronavirus that can be transmitted by humans, you would almost certainly start with the first SARS virus. SARS-CoV-2 is like nothing we have seen before. It really is highly unlikely that someone created it; it is not put together from pieces we know about.” SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to other beta coronaviruses such as RaTG13, a bat virus that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has been working on. But it only shares 96% of its genome sequence with RaTG13, which makes them roughly as similar as human beings and chimpanzees, and points to a common ancestor rather than one springing from the other.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: October 01, 2020, 06:20:43 PM »
Experts react to Tesla Battery Day: Highlights, hype and honking horns
28 Sep 2020

“One very significant information was the claim that Tesla alone will produce 3,000GWh (or 3TWh) of batteries by 2030,” Johan Soderbom, thematic leader for energy storage at EIT InnoEnergy said.

“This is more or less the same number that today is predicted for the entire global battery industry.”

Experts react to Tesla Battery Day: The key technology takeaways
30 Sep 2020

“What I really liked about this Battery Day, being a battery scientist, is how they had this hands-on approach of solving actual problems,” Dr Kai-Philipp Kairies, CEO of ACCURE, a battery intelligence data analytics platform provider, says.


“It’s all plausible: these five or six fields in which they want to improve their batteries in terms of form factor, in terms of adding silicon to the anode, in terms of dry-coating and such. These are all technologies that have been around for a couple of years and so I do see a very high probability that they will eventually get all the pieces together.

“It might take a year or two longer than anticipated but generally from a scientific point of view, it all makes sense - but implementing it of course is difficult, especially in mass production. But if you have the right people and enough money to even go through maybe two or three trials that don’t work from the start, but you can just iterate until it works, I think it’s very feasible what they’ve planned.”

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 19, 2020, 07:39:35 PM »
No estimates on solar energy?

There are some indications that Tesla solar sales may be increasing.

Elon Musk Explains Why Tesla Solar Power Is So Cheap — CleanTechnica Exclusive

It isn’t cheap having sales people walk around neighborhood after neighborhood trying to get people to make a purchase of something that costs thousands or tens of thousands of dollars, even if it will save them money in the mid to long term. Tesla can just send out some tweets, sell solar through its existing stores, and push solar indirectly through Tesla owner referral codes.

Despite knowing this and a few other ways Tesla might be able to cut costs, I felt like I didn’t have solid enough evidence to explain Tesla’s low solar power price to the world. So, I asked Tesla CEO Elon Musk about it. He responded:

“Solar panel cost is only ~50 cents/Watt. Mounting hardware, inverter and wiring is ~25 cents/Watt. Installation is ~50 cents/Watt, depending on system size.

“The other solar companies spend heavily on salespeople, advertising and complex financing instruments. We do not.”

So, that’s that — Tesla spends approximately 75 cents a watt on the hardware and approximately 50 cents a watt on the installation cost, adding up to ~$1.25/watt. Another 76 cents a watt covers some additional soft costs while also presumably providing a small profit.

Tesla partners with other companies to install solar roof tiles

Good Faith Energy, one of the biggest solar installers in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, just confirmed that they are now authorized to install Tesla solar roofs, and they installed their first solar roof system.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 10:08:39 AM »
Could COVID-19 Deaths in India Actually Be 5 Times the Official Figure?

Doctors Shewade and Gopal explained to The Wire the largest element of under-reported COVID-19 deaths came from “suspected COVID-19 deaths occurring at home or during transit or in non-COVID hospitals”. As they put it: “Outside designated COVID-19 facilities, there could be many instances of suspected COVID-19 being the cause of death which may not be captured.”

However, Shewade and Gopal also said there are many states where COVID-19 deaths happen along with comorbidities but COVID-19 is not mentioned as the cause of death. As they put it: “Some states go to the extent of blindly removing COVID-19 from cause of death wherever a comorbidity is present…hence even among the registered deaths with medical certification, COVID-19 deaths appear to be under-reported.”

The two doctors told The Wire this sizeable under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths is not unique nor unusual. Tuberculosis is a common and widespread disease where similar if not greater under-reporting of deaths has already been acknowledged. They said that in 2019 the official TB death toll was 80,000 but the WHO had estimated the death toll at 450,000. This amounts to under-reporting by a factor of 5.7.


The doctors told The Wire the fact all of India’s neighbours have an even lower COVID-19 mortality rate – something which is also true of countries further afield like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines and the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa with the possible exception of South Africa – means there is undercounting happening in these countries as well. These are countries where registration of deaths is not widespread and medical certification by a doctor is probably negligible.

COVID-19 deaths may be higher than reported

According to the latest vital statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (CRS, 2018), 86% of the total deaths were registered of which 22% had a medically certified cause of death (MCCD report, 2017). This means 18.9% (0.86*0.22) of the total deaths were medically certified with a cause of death. The key reason for this is that only 34% received institutional medical attention at the time of death (CRS, 2018). Another reason is that not all hospitals (including public and private hospitals in rural and urban areas) have been brought under the coverage of MCCD. Errors, missing details or issues in the quality of MCCD have also been reported. This proportion of total deaths that are medically certified with a cause of death varies from State to State. It is less than 10% in Nagaland (1.5%), Bihar (2.4%), Jharkhand (2.6%), Uttarakhand (5%), Uttar Pradesh (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (7.4%); more than 60% in Delhi (60.7%) and Puducherry (63.7%); and 100% in Goa.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 04, 2020, 08:46:26 PM »
Will this be the first solid state battery in production?

QuantumScape has been developing a solid state battery for a decade in stealth mode and is now going public to raise $700 million.

We are actively planning “QS-1”, our first manufacturing facility that will be built in two stages. For our initial 1GWh of production capacity—the equivalent of ten-thousand battery electric vehicles—we plan to order long lead time equipment next year and start production in 2024. For our followon 20GWh expansion—the equivalent of two-hundred thousand battery electric vehicles—we plan to order long lead time equipment upon cell validation from the initial phase of QS-1 and start production for the expansion in 2026.

Briefly, on our financials. We believe that cash from this transaction fully funds the business through start of production, purchases long lead time equipment for our 20GWh expansion and fully funds our R&D pipeline. We expect to generate revenues beginning in 2024, to ramp up to multi-hundred million in revenue in 2026, to achieve multi-billion in revenue in 2027, and to double from 2027 levels in 2028. In 2028, with an expected just over 90GWh of capacity—the equivalent of 900,000 battery electric vehicles—and greater than 6 billion dollars in revenue, our capacity and sales would still represent less than 1% of current global annual vehicle demand, and less than 10% of annual sales for any top-3 automotive OEM.

Volkswagen has invested about $300 million into QuantumScape.

More details in the investor presentation:

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 04, 2020, 08:12:45 PM »
A few tweets 4 months ago is ancient history. It might have been relevant to this topic then but isn't anymore. It might still be relevant to some other topic but not this one. Unless there's new developments or new perspectives, rehashing old stuff serves no purpose.

Here's a more recent and more relevant tweet on covid and Tesla:

Elon Musk @elonmusk
Replying to @kulpability @tlowdon and @EthicalSkeptic

One person at Tesla (out of 60,000) was hospitalized in serious condition (he caught cov2 at home, not work), no deaths. I called his wife & Hayward hospital to make sure he was getting the right treatment, but which he was.

5:41 PM · Aug 30, 2020

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 20, 2020, 03:05:08 PM »
Neil, I think you are a bit too optimistic.

For example, my understanding is the Giga Berlin 2M production would consist of 4 production lines each producing 500k per year. They would build about one line per year reaching 2M in 2024.

Of course, Tesla is constantly modifying their plans. Maybe they can pull more than 500k from each line. On the other hand, they will probably have less than 4 lines. One of the lines was supposed to be where they are now building the motor workshop. Originally, the motors (and seats and battery packs) were going to be made on the second floor of the production line building but the ground turned out to be too soft to support a second floor with heavy machinery.

So accurate predictions are difficult, even for Tesla. But the production will grow rapidly over the next few years.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: August 19, 2020, 11:23:51 PM »
A long Twitter thread by Nafnlaus on The Boring Company as a public transportation company:

1/Recently, there's been another surge of "Elon Musk is Trying to Kill Public Transit" on Twitter (thanks, @doctorow!). Pointing out that Musk *literally runs a public transit company* (@boringcompany) just brings us to the "volumes are too low, so it can't work" line.


Getting the picture? Public is not about "how many people you can fit onto a train at once"; it's about how much money you have to spend...
... per unit passenger capacity (we'll set aside all issues of comfort and convenience for now). Which means that *you cannot eliminate departure rates, how direct routes are, and construction costs from the picture*; they're an integral part.

So how what about Boring Company?
First off, Boring Company is Personal Rapid Transit:

While this is normally focused on for comfort and convenience, it's also about capacity: everyone goes directly to their destination; nobody heads in the wrong direction.

Secondly, it's focused on *radical* cost reductions for tunneling, particular to its design elements.


Is TBC "there" already? Of course not; it takes years to decades to radically transform any given type of...
... technology.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 03:14:40 PM »
A notification on Worldview:
The Aqua satellite experienced an anomaly on 16 August 2020 at 9:26:40 UTC and is affecting all Aqua MODIS and AIRS layers available in Worldview from 16 August 2020 onward. It is unknown when the issue will be remedied. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: August 13, 2020, 12:18:53 PM »
Tesla big battery sets new record as testing for Hornsdale expansion enters final stage
Australia, 11 August 2020
It is now being expanded to a capacity of 150MW/194MWh, and is adding new services, particularly synthetic inertia, that will allow it to replicate more of the services once exclusive to fossil fuel generators in South Australia, and allow the grid to take another important step towards the shift to the state government target of “net 100 per cent renewables.”
On Tuesday, in the latest series of tests, the Hornsdale battery did a rapid 270MW flip – from charging at 120MW to discharging at 150MW. It appears to have flipped between the two on several different occasions (see graph above) – at least one of which had an immediate impact on the wholesale price of electricity, pushing it down to the peppercorn price of just above $8/MWh.

Those 270MW flips – from the level of discharge to the level of charge – are likely a world record in both speed and extent of the change.
The new testing on synthetic inertia, or virtual inertia as David Leitch explains in this excellent piece on the work being done already by the Dalrymple North battery, will prove yet another critical grid service and function that can be delivered by inverter-based technologies, and remove another important brick in the wall of the incumbent synchronous generators. The industry, in Australia and overseas, is watching with keen interest.

That synthetic or virtual inertia is probably the same grid stabilizing service that was achieved using flywheel storage in Scotland as discussed in the Renewable Energy thread recently:,256.msg272207.html#msg272207

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 12, 2020, 10:55:23 PM »
Tesla makes European cars typically in the first half of a quarter so that they can be shipped and delivered before the end of the quarter. In Q2 Freemont was closed for the first 6 weeks and they had only about 3 weeks to make cars for Europe. Almost all the cars were delivered before the end of June and there was little left for July.

The first shipment of Model 3s in Q3 arrived to Europe on August 5. There are currently three more ships on route and more coming later. So the sales should pick up in August, and September should be a typical end of quarter month (15k-20k Model 3s).

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 11, 2020, 07:31:59 PM »
—- Thread by @ReflexFunds (rolled into one page at the link):
Some thoughts on Tesla’s Autopilot & Robotaxi strategy:

Here are follow up threads by @ReflexFunds:

This is a very nice overview of Tesla's Autopilot status. 

One detail missing is Project Dojo which is a new chip for training neural nets. Neural net training is computationally very demanding and currently done on GPUs (the HW3 chip is not suitable for training). The new chip is probably around an order of magnitude more efficient than a GPU enabling faster training and thus faster iteration. Project Dojo is expected to deploy late this year or early next year.

In summary, we can expect fast progress with Autopilot starting later this year when the new 4D architecture arrives followed by continuous improvements (the march of 9s) next year. Whether this is enough for full FSD remains to be seen, but we should be much wiser a year from now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 04:29:49 PM »
I made little animations using the NSIDC comparison tool comparing the remainder of the melting seasons 2012 and 2019 against the current state.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 02:24:58 PM »
When judging the SIPN predictions, remember that they were made in early July. The deadline for submissions was July 13 but many were made much earlier. I looked at just one example, NSIDC (Meier), and their prediction was based on the situation on July 1.

The SIPN report has this paragraph on a longer term weather forecast (my emphasis):

The atmospheric conditions over the next month will bear on the September sea-ice minima. The NOAA CFSv2 and CanSIPS forecasts of August and September near surface air temperature and sea level pressure were examined ( Both models forecast benign pressure patterns over the Arctic Ocean, including the Beaufort/Chukchi seas, for August. The CFSv2 and CanSIPS SLP forecast weak negative pressure anomalies over the Arctic Ocean in September and no strong pressure gradients. The temperature forecasts for both months generally show weak anomalies over the central Arctic, but large positive anomalies equatorward of the ice edge—consistent with an abnormal poleward displacement of the ice edge. Neither model points to strong storminess in August. The stormiest period in the CFS scenario is the remainder of July (the first week of the ensemble of forecasts made July 20). The largest negative SLP anomalies in late July are forecast by the CFS to be just northeast of the Beaufort Sea, which would argue against a rapid expansion of the open water area in this area. If the seasonal forecast verifies then sea-ice retreat will likely not be an extreme in the Beaufort Sea.

That forecast was made on July 20. Has the forecast changed since then? (Asking the weather buffs here as my understanding of weather is limited.)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 24, 2020, 02:39:19 PM »
Chukchi Sea seems right, here's the photographer's own site:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 10:50:04 PM »
A couple of comments about Beaufort melt.

First, the Beaufort extent at this point in different years is probably more a reflection of ice drift than ice melt.

Second, Beaufort often has regions of very thick, old ice that has drifted there from the north of CAA. Such ice can act as a barrier that stops or slows down the melt for a long time. Once the barrier breaks, the ice behind it can collapse quickly.

An extreme example of such a collapse is 2012 shown in the gif below. Notice that the collapse happened before GAC.

However, I should point out that summer 2012 was dominated by a dipole pattern with a high parked over Beaufort bringing a lot of heat and sunshine. This summer Beaufort has been cooler and cloudier, so I don't expect as early and as spectacular collapse this year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 10:04:31 PM »
I think the discrepancy between extent and area is explained by two factors.

One is the melt pond drainage mentioned by Lodger and FOW above.

The other is lack of dispersal. On many years, large regions of the ice pack have started to disperse in July but this year the GAAC has prevented most of that. The image below is an example of strong dispersal from July 19, 2016.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 14, 2020, 11:36:33 PM »
To put the Melbourne flare up in context:
  • Melbourne, population 5 million, about 200 new cases per day
  • NYC, population 8.4 million, about 300 new cases per day in recent weeks
  • Arizona, population 7.3 million, about 3,500 new cases day
My guess is it won't get much worse in Melbourne because of the lockdown (in effect for a week now) and extensive contact tracing.

Here's some details about the lockdown

and contact tracing:

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: July 13, 2020, 10:29:36 PM »
BAU will continue to happen until an EV compromise asserts itself.  Right now we have two camps, one shouting F. U. We're keeping our ICE and our right to pollute.  On the other side is a raucous chant of Public Transport is all you should be allowed (or walk/cycle 20 miles to work if you don't have any).  In the middle are a fairly small camp being browbeaten by all sides.

Actually, it is useful to see the "green camp" as a spectrum of viewpoints ranging from Techno-utopianism to Neo-Ludditism. There is a fantastic (and long) series of tweets by Nafnlaus analysing this:

Techno-utopians see the solution to crises not as to sacrifice or revert, but to invent & move forward. There's all sorts of flavours of techno-utopianism - techno-progressivism (focused on achieving post-scarcity to eliminate unequality); technogianism (using technology to solve climate crises); transhumanism (using technology to overcome human limits); and so forth.

Neo-luddites see some / many of the technological changes of the past century as causing the problems we're in, and deeply fear proposed technological solutions to them. Faced with a crisis,  neo-Luddites tend to seek to revert to what they see as "older, better ways". The fact that most people haven't done so, seeing such reversion as a big sacrifice, is that they either truly don't understand how much happier they'll be, or they're bad people and deserve to be unhappy.

I highly recommend reading the full tweet series (26 tweets), it's really eye opening. I think most of us on this forum are somewhere between the two extremes, but it's clear that many of the arguments here arise because some of us are closer to Techno-utopianism and others to Neo-Ludditism. The tweet series has many examples.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 09, 2020, 01:00:59 PM »
Panasonic CEO's characterization of Elon Musk as reported by Reuters:

Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is “a genius who defies common sense and can be overly optimistic”

“I believe only geniuses can hold onto big visions, and a genius I know is Elon Musk”

With excessive optimism, a genius like Musk can ignore what is inconvenient and run straight ahead towards his vision, Tsuga said at the event. “Compared to that vision, most things don’t really matter.”

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 06, 2020, 06:17:47 AM »
Ice is forming some peculiar patterns in Foxe Basin.

Also, there is an optical illusion that makes some of the ice flows look like large ice bergs with a long shadow. (The "shadow" is just open water.)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 27, 2020, 03:06:54 PM »
There's several reasons why the number of deaths in US is not yet rising the way the number of infections is:
  • Deaths come with a delay.
  • Some (but certainly not all) of the increase in cases is due to increased testing.
  • Doctors have more experience and know better what treatments work in the critical cases. Besides preventing some deaths, this may also delay death further in other cases.
  • Nursing homes, hospitals etc. are better prepared to protect their vulnerable residents/patients.
  • While the young and healthy are eager to return to normality, the elderly and other risk groups are continuing to self isolate, practice social distancing etc.
  • It's possible that some states are cooking the books. Perhaps not actually forging the records but controlling the way statistics are collected and reported.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 20, 2020, 02:55:31 PM »

Check out the two charts from Nico Sun's site on the bottom of the page. Daily and accumulated Albedo Warming potential by region. On an accumulated basis, CAB is slightly behind the 20 year average and Beaufort is way behind. Neither region has had a single day this month with above average AWP.

Also, look at Oren's volume charts through mid-June by region in the PIOMAS thread.

Also, look at the NSIDC area spreadsheets by region which Gerontocrat prepares daily.

Also, look at the difference in the Beaufort Sea vs. last year in Aluminum's satellite images.

All of those statistics are somewhat misleading for Beaufort. This spring had less than usual amount of ice transport away from Beaufort. Typically that ice transport leads to a lot of open water early in the melt season, but this year there is less open water. And less open water means higher albedo, extent, area and volume. Thus all of those statistics could simply be the result of anomalous ice transport and not necessarily an indication of low melt.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 19, 2020, 07:20:34 PM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: June 15, 2020, 07:22:46 PM »
One way to compare the efficiency of EVs vs ICEVs is the MPG/MPGe rating by EPA. According to Wikipedia, the average MPG rating of vehicles sold in US in 2017 was 24.9. Most of the vehicles on the road today are much older and probably were less efficient when new and are even less efficient now due to wear and tear. So something closer to 20 MPG might be the average efficiency of ICEVs on the road today.

Tesla Model 3 SR+ has MPGe rating of 141. Tesla Model X LR, a large SUV with the largest battery on the market today, is rated 96 MPGe. Most other (non-Tesla) EVs are less efficient today but other manufactures have to improve their efficiency if they want to compete with Tesla. Trucks are obviously less efficient, but I would still expect the average EV efficiency to be somewhere around the 80-90 MPGe range when all US vehicles were replaced with EVs.

So EVs would be about a factor 4 more efficient than the vehicles on the road today.

What about UK (and Europe in general)? The vehicle fleet today is certainly much more efficient than in US, but EVs would be more efficient too due to the smaller vehicle size. Moreover, UK probably has proportionately more city driving and less highway driving than US, which benefits EVs. So I would not be surprised if the efficiency factor is somewhere around 4 in the UK too.

I think that matches Gero's estimates pretty well.

Finally, the transition to EVs won't happen overnight. Only about 5% of vehicles on the road are replaced each year. So I can't see EVs putting a big strain on the grid, especially when they can actually support the grid through V2G.

There is a separate thread for drought news that hasn't seen a post recently:,2980.0.html

Perhaps repost there?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 30, 2020, 04:02:25 PM »
- They declared covid as pandemic in March when everybody already knew it was a pandemic

As you say yourself, everybody already knew. The actual declaration has no real significance. The actions are up to national authorities anyway. And WHO did declare COVID-19 a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern" already in January.

- They screwed up with their erring on the lax side with masks, instead of on the safe side. They were protecting health workers, perhaps, but they were not transparent and lied about the scientific facts.

There is still no consensus on using masks by general public. Just yesterday the Finnish health authorities published a report on using face masks. Result: no requirement or recommendation for the general public to use face masks. My understanding is that several other countries have made a similar decision.

- They were eager to praise China response while shamelessly refusing to recognize Taiwan as a country, this is a UN organization, folks, and Taiwan had an exemplary response to covid.

This is an issue with just about all international organizations. Only 14 out of 193 members of the UN have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

- They rushed to halt HCQ trials based on the Lancet study that is receiving increased scrutiny and criticism from experts (including WHO employees)

The study was suspended temporarily and a decision of whether to continue will be made in a week or two. Seems a pretty reasonable decision to me.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: May 13, 2020, 09:37:01 PM »
Like what's with the malaria ? My interest is personal, having nearly kicked the bucket  with cerebral malaria many years ago ( + a few doses of the ordinary variety).

But perhaps Musk’s most traumatic vacation experience came when he and Justine decided to try and go on their honeymoon again that December.

Musk planned a two-week trip to Brazil and South Africa. While in South Africa, Musk contracted the most severe form of malaria. After two hospitals misdiagnosed him, he “came very close to dying,” said Musk in “Elon Musk,” before being properly treated in the nick of time.

“That’s my lesson for taking a vacation,” Musk said in the book. “Vacations will kill you.”

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 03, 2020, 04:03:33 AM »
They say the current Singapore outbreak is spreading among migrant workers living in cramped accommodation. The virus probably found a more vulnerable part of population this time.

For example, of the 528 new cases detected on Tuesday, 511 were foreign workers living in dormitories, while another seven were workers living outside the dormitories.

There is some hope that the fatality rate in Singapore will remain low. I suspect that there are not many 80+ year old migrant workers.

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