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1
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 10:41:24 PM »
I thought that while evidence for increased frequency of hurricanes might be questionable, there was more confidence in the trend of hurricanes to increased intensity, and even worse, slower moving hurricanes, e.g Harvey, Dorian.

I guess the Bahamas thinks one is more than enough for a very long time.   
2
USA October Snow Storm
A warm September meant that trees were still at least partly in leaf + high winds over soggy ground, and wild-life & cattle were late in growing their winter coats.. Crops were about to be harvested.


And afterwards ... so early in the year temperature rebound very possible, fast thaw, flooding.

So the snowstorm impact was more because it was early after a very warm September. It will be not so easy to find out later how much damage has been done.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6026144/winnipeggers-cleanup-october-snowstorm/
Quote
Winnipeg
Arborist Mark Vickers says Thomas isn’t alone. He received hundreds of calls from Winnipeggers with fallen branches covering their front lawns. “I’ve never seen it this bad,” Vickers says, looking out towards the street.

Mayor Brian Bowman said the tree canopy has been severely damaged

So many tree limbs down from on our street. It’s sad to see the trees damaged like this. #winnipegweather #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/ykKDzKSQh0 — Heather Hinam (@SecondNatureMB) October 11, 2019

http://www.startribune.com/blizzard-warning-posted-in-north-dakota-amid-fall-snowstorm/562808382/
NORTH DAKOTA
Quote
BISMARCK, N.D. — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum on Friday activated the state's emergency plan due to what he called a crippling snowstorm that closed major highways and had farmers and ranchers bracing for huge crop and livestock losses.

The north-central and northeastern part of the state was taking the brunt of the storm but Bismarck, in the central North Dakota, had nearly a foot of snow by Friday.

"I'm expecting massive crop losses — as devastating as we've even seen," said Jon Nelson, a state lawmaker who farms several hundred acres near Rugby in north-central North Dakota.

Unharvested wheat in the region probably will be a total loss, he said.

"A lot of the standing stuff is flattened to the ground," Nelson said. "It's shot and some guys are putting their combines away and won't bring them out again."

Erika Kenner, who ranches with her parents in Leeds, North Dakota, said she felt helpless Friday as she was unable to check on the family's herd of several hundred cows due to deep, drifting snow.

"I just hear the wind howling and think of those poor cows out there," she said. "Cattle are tough but this kind of weather just wears on them."
3
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 09:56:38 PM »
Just a curiosity: my day job as a regulator had me overhear a 'hallway conference' about who was claiming certain petroleum storage tanks - The feds or SpaceX - and the need for paperwork to be submitted to determine who claimed what.  (One of my colleagues had never heard of SpaceX before, not that that was relevant to the discussion.)  I hadn't previously thought to wonder if I would ever be asked to review SpaceX documents.  (If they are properly prepared, I'm unlikely to ever see or hear about them.)

I can’t find the reference at the moment, but there is a huge old (oxygen? fuel?) tank from the Apollo era still sitting on the grounds of LC-39A in Florida (which is now leased to SpaceX).  SpaceX isn’t using it, although they might find a use for it at some point.  I wonder if this is the object of discussion you heard.  8)

Found it!

Quote
Julia (@julia_bergeron) 9/14/19, 11:33 AM
I took a bus ride today. Could it be that construction is about to start on the Starship pad at 39A? It looks like it to me! #SpaceX #Starship @elonmusk
https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1172896260241666054
[Photo below; others at the link.]
< That looks like it's in the right location for the Starship pad!
< And the grass are already cleared there
< It makes sense that they begin Starship pad construction soon. I mean, @SpaceX probably wants it ready *before* they move #StarshipMk2 (aka #StarshipEast) from their #CocoaFL facility to Pad 39A.
< What do they use hydrogen for on falcon launches? [the huge round tank]
< For nothing. It is a relic from the Apollo and Shuttle eras. It is being considered for use to store liquid methane per the latest FAA Environmental Report regarding Starship and Super Heavy launch and landings at 39A but nothing solid yet
4
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Last post by Aluminium on Today at 09:39:47 PM »
There is many numbers about hurricane season. At the same time there is normal, below normal, above normal. We have a trend to worse but:
1. The trend should not make a show every year.
2. Unprecedented events should occur from time to time even in "stable" climate. 500-year events should occur 1 time in 5 years if our list contains 100 different ones.
3. This season has not finished.
5
The recent winter storm hit Manitoba, Canada hard.

Kyle Brittain on Twitter: "Unreal. Seeing longer stretches of snapped hydro poles in a row on the west side of Portage than I've ever seen with any severe thunderstorm or tornado in summer. #mbstorm @weathernetwork”
https://twitter.com/KyleTWN/status/1183094703912181761

October winter weather pummels Manitoba, storm expected to last into weekend | CTV News
https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/october-winter-weather-pummels-manitoba-storm-expected-to-last-into-weekend-1.4634223
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The rest / Re: SpaceX
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 09:36:58 PM »
(The first, uncrewed Starships may well remain on Mars, providing a source of supplies for the following crewed missions.)
The first, crewed Starships may well remain on Mars as may well the humans on board - involuntarily.
7
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 09:29:16 PM »
An engineering team at the University of British Columbia is examining what would be needed to produce methane and oxygen fuel for a SpaceX Starship on Mars. 

It would make sense to send a Starship rigged for that purpose: the plant is mounted in the cargo area and the Starship’s own tanks are used for storage of the gasses.

Commenter “Martianspirit” wrote:
Quote
The tanks can be used for propellant storage.
The plant can be self contained in the cargo area of a Starship.
The solar arrays need to be set up outside. Quite possible this too can be done automated, at least partially. Maybe not for an array with several MW.
What is tricky and probably needs crew on site is digging and processing the water before it can be fed into the plant. At least for an extended time of operation problem solving by humans will be needed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/dhbmx1/a_proposed_mars_sabatier_fuel_plant_for_starship/

(The first, uncrewed Starships may well remain on Mars, providing a source of supplies for the following crewed missions.)
8
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Last post by Stephan on Today at 09:28:29 PM »
Last year the next week had the same average than this week. Therefore any increase in value will also directly influence the annual increase. I expect an uptick to around 2.8 ppm.
My Sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting job.
Week beginning on October 6, 2019:     408.39 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             405.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     384.06 ppm
Last updated: October 13, 2019

Annual increase almost at 2.9 ppm. The seasonal minimum clearly happened on Oct 3 and 4 with around 407.5 ppm. From now on it will go upwards.

Next week last year had an average of around 406 ppm. With a slow daily upward trend in the coming week the annual increase will keep well below 3 ppm. After that the daily increase will be steeper, but, of course, last year also showed an acceleration by 0.5 to 2 ppm per week into November.
9
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 09:25:35 PM »
Just a curiosity: my day job as a regulator had me overhear a 'hallway conference' about who was claiming certain petroleum storage tanks - The feds or SpaceX - and the need for paperwork to be submitted to determine who claimed what.  (One of my colleagues had never heard of SpaceX before, not that that was relevant to the discussion.)  I hadn't previously thought to wonder if I would ever be asked to review SpaceX documents.  (If they are properly prepared, I'm unlikely to ever see or hear about them.)

I can’t find the reference at the moment, but there is a huge old (oxygen? fuel?) tank from the Apollo era still sitting on the grounds of LC-39A in Florida (which is now leased to SpaceX).  SpaceX isn’t using it, although they might find a use for it at some point.  I wonder if this is the object of discussion you heard.  8)
10
Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.

Operating theory is "we are in a runaway abrupt climate flip" and I want to disprove it to myself, but bear it in mind that I am completely unconstrained in my thinking & language.  Full power Dunning-Kruger.  This is from a lone mind bent on survival.  I don't have any allegiance or hesitancy based on academic norms.

I managed to click on the running mean AO index from 1950-present over here https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml

Added Paint.exe black line connecting the Jan 1 position for the last couple of years.  It would seem reasonable to guess that the AO index will be hovering around neutral on Jan 1 2020.
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