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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by johnm33 on Today at 10:24:58 AM »
'Tides' I'm busy but I'll make my case later on unsorted.
2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by Hopen Times on Today at 10:16:55 AM »
Binntho, how do you define shallow waters and how far from the coast do you think you can observe the coastal effect?
3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by El Cid on Today at 10:07:03 AM »
China may not be done yet. They are just now past 10 weeks of quarantine. But ...

From the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/01/coronavirus-live-news-us-deaths-could-reach-240000

"Authorities reported 130 new asymptomatic cases on Wednesday, bringing the total number of such cases under observation to 1,367."

Sam

Asymptomatic cases????? I heard there was no iceberg under the tip!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/china-pivots-to-tackle-silent-covid-19-carriers-as-us-says-a-quarter-of-cases-may-have-no-symptoms

"Chinese researchers estimate that 59% of those who contracted the virus had mild or no symptoms. Documents seen by the South China Morning Post reportedly showed more than 40,000 asymptomatic patients that would not have been included in China’s total number of infections of more than 80,000."
4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by blumenkraft on Today at 10:03:13 AM »
Binntho, does the word "bathymetry" ring a bell?

I have news for you: Bathymetry is all over the place.
5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Ktb on Today at 09:59:02 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from April 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From April 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 6th highest value. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2016's minimum was reached on September 7th. (See attachment 2). End
6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by blumenkraft on Today at 09:58:36 AM »
Also, people who survive this can be injured for a long time, if not for the rest of their lives. Pneumonia comes along with many kinds of issues. It looks like heart problems can occur.

Yes, this virus is very dangerous!
7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Sam on Today at 09:53:19 AM »
Yes.
This is a horrible pandemic.
We must look back to the 1918 influenza to grasp its severity. 


For some perspective, there were about 50 million dead from that flu in 1918, and the global population was about 1.7 billion people.
So a death rate of close to 3%.

The C19 will kill a few million people out of a global population of about 7.7 billion people. A death rate of maybe 0.3%.
C19 is roughly about 1/10 as deadly.
And it will not even dent the incredible population growth going on at the same time as this pandemia: "The current average population increase is estimated at 81 million people per year."
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#growthrate

Please stop trying to minimize the danger of this virus. It is vastly more lethal than you want to believe. And a whole lot of people are going to get sick over the next two months with an immense number dying. Cut it out.

We get that you do not want to believe the facts in front of you. That is just plain stupid.

Sam
8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by binntho on Today at 09:51:58 AM »
Last time we talked about this i gave you multiple GIFs illustrating and proving my point. You all dismissed them without counterargument. So no, i will not do it again.

I remember those gifs. There was no point in responding to them because they either showed the coastal effect. Which I keep saying is real, but of no importance since it only reaches a very short distance away from the coast. Or they were not really conclusive, more a question of wanting to see something.

Besides, the coastal effect is mostly back-and-forth movement caused by the up-and-down movement in shallow waters, and should therefore have an extremely limited (if any) effect on the movement of ice and water in the open ocean.

The open ocean, thousands of kilometers from side to side, is what we are talking about here. And the lateral movement of ice (and water) in the open ocean does not fluctuate with the tides.

HOWEVER!!!!!

Long-term movements of ocean currents ARE effected by the tidal pull of the moon. So the effect is not non-existent in the open ocean, but it is NOT a fluctuating effect. In other words, no research i've found indicates that changes in tidal movement on a daily or monthly basis has any discernible effect.

The existence of tides has a constant effect, not a fluctuating effect, changes in the tides on a daily or monthly  basis does not effect the large scale state of the ice in the Arctic Ocean.
9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Sam on Today at 09:51:37 AM »
China may not be done yet. They are just now past 10 weeks of quarantine. But ...

From the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/01/coronavirus-live-news-us-deaths-could-reach-240000

"Authorities reported 130 new asymptomatic cases on Wednesday, bringing the total number of such cases under observation to 1,367."

Sam
10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Ktb on Today at 09:42:06 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation.

The max was reached on March 3rd. Extent was 14,447,631 km2. As of March 31st, extent is 13,599,874 km2. With on average 166 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -75,903 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

We had a 10 day stretch in early March with many small gains and small losses, the result was extent dropped by only -14,622 km2 during that period. Thus greatly hampering the massive impact on averages that our two century drops had.

Total extent loss so far this season is -847,767 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -30,277 km2. This is the 3rd highest average daily loss from maximum to March 31st (2007-2020), behind 2014 (Minimum on March 20th) and 2019 (Minimum on March 12). (See Attachment 2).

Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. 2019 lost ~50,000 km2 more in 9 fewer days. Wow. (See Attachment 3).

Keep in mind that there are a wide range of minimums since 2007, ranging from Feb 24th to March 31st.
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