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The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Last post by wili on Today at 02:27:14 PM »
Paddy, can you quote relevant bits from the article. Some of us can't get WaPo without paying.

Oren, I hadn't noticed that phenomenon. I feel I can separate out political from scientific observations, usually.
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« Last post by Jim Pettit on Today at 02:24:51 PM »
Sorry for posting this in the wrong thread,but...

You are, indeed, in the wrong thread. I would hope discerning and intelligent people--the kind we'd preferably like to see on this site--can accept a sub-thread called 'Russiagate' in a sub-forum called 'The Rest' in a category called 'Off-Topic' that features discussion about "Russiagate" without thinking the entire site has gone down the toilet.

Anyway, NBC News is reporting that Mueller is examining whether Trump himself directed Flynn to lie to the FBI about his contacts with Russia.


Some have downplayed the whole "Russiagate" thing by claiming that it's all about whether Russia helped Trump get elected. (Spoiler alert: they did. Spoiler alert II: that's not a big deal.) Others have claimed that entirely too much attention is being paid to Trump's myriad shady connections to Russia, and that distraction will cause the Democrats to lose in the future.

I disagree with both.

The only other option we have is to ignore everything, pretend that Flynn and Manafort and Page and Kushner and Junior and everyone else did nothing wrong and even if they did it's no big deal so let's just all forget about it and move on. That's unacceptable. We can walk and chew gum at the same time: support better, more diverse candidates, work on getting money out of politics, pushing the party to be more progressive, and so on. And we can also continue to highlight the fact that the CiC and his entourage are a bunch of thieving, lying, corrupt Russian puppets far more beholden to Moscow than to the American people. Maybe that will sway some people; maybe it won't. But I don't think that necessarily needs to be a political calculation; wrong is wrong, and should be rooted out.
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« Last post by Buddy on Today at 01:45:17 PM »

Encourage or assist someone to do something wrong, in particular, to commit a crime or other offense.  "He was not guilty of conspiracy/obstruction but was guilty of AIDING AND ABETTING OTHERS" to do so.

As Bernstein notes.....several at FOX are guilty of aiding and abetting.   I suspect that two at FOX are likely in more hot water than JUST aiding and abetting:  Sean Hannity and Jeanine Pirro.

Whether Mueller will go down that prosecutorial road is yet to be seen.....but there is a pretty good chance that Hannity and/or Pirro were caught in conversations with Manafort by the FBI.  If you have seen any of Hannity's show over the past week....he looks like a guilty man who is cornered and striking out.  Time will tell.

And we still have sealed indictment "A" just waiting for somebody.  Who is going to get coal in their stocking?

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Last post by BenB on Today at 12:23:29 PM »

No one, for the next several years, is going to use more batteries than Tesla.  It may be five years or more before anyone catches up with Tesla in terms of cells consumed considering that Tesla will soon be manufacturing 4x to 5x as many EVs per year as the next highest volume manufacturer. 

Bob, this is going back a little while now, but I've been away. I wonder what numbers you are anticipating for each of the major manufacturers to come up with Tesla being 4-5 times bigger than their biggest competitor.

I would guess that BAIC and BYD will both be selling around 200,000 EVs next year, but I think there's more upside than downside to that guesstimate. Numbers will probably continue to rise after next year. Zhidou, Geely, JAC and Chery are also significant players in China.

Nissan may get close to 200,000, judging by orders for the new Leaf. BMW, Renault, GM, Mitsubishi, etc. are also selling decent numbers of EVs, and if they manage to increase sales significantly next year they could be relevant to the overall market.

If Tesla manages to ramp up production of the M3 to plan, it may well be ahead of everyone else in EV sales, and even more so in battery demand, but I don't think it will be 4-5 times bigger than anyone else, and bearing in mind the growing number of competitors on the horizon, it won't have an overwhelming share of the overall EV market. Perhaps 15-25% next year if everything goes to plan?
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Last post by oren on Today at 10:33:01 AM »
I too dislike the political turn the forum has taken. Putting it OT is not enough. In the unread posts list which I use regularly, I need to wade through all the OT threads to get to the real stuff. And people here start hating each other over political issues, and bring it into the other threads, as it's one forum with one set of usernames. And worse of all, the posts in these threads are repetitive. I doubt anyone has changed his mind based on all these varying points of view. I keep seeing the same people always posting the same opinions. Totally useless.
The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« Last post by GeoffBeacon on Today at 10:22:05 AM »

The philosopher David Hume (1711-1776) pointed out a long time ago (paraphrased):

(1) Theory and facts alone cannot drive our actions

(2) Internal feelings drive our actions.

(3) Some internal feelings are “moral sentiments”

Most of us have a moral sentiment (with other moral sentiments) for an equal distribution of wealth because of our related sentiment of keeping the most individuals as happy as possible. This sentiment is clearly demonstrated when we feed the geese.

Economics was distanced from these moral sentiments when Lionel Robbins made the claim that happiness (aka utility or satisfaction) was unscientific because it could not be directly measured.

Robbins was following the view of science Percy Bridgman advocated, called operationalism whose ideas were dismissed by philosophers quite quickly. (e.g. an "electron"cannot be directly measured. But the effects of electrons can be measured. Electron is a theoretical term based in several theories.) 

Over 80 years later economists seem still be following Bridgman even though "happiness" is being measured scientifically.

We don't need Piketty's excuses to take from the rich to give to the poor. It's often the right thing to do and we don't need Robin Hood's violent method because we have the vote.   

Right leaning views

However, there are other views:

In countering the Robin Hood principle, right-leaning people emphaise property rights and the laws that uphold them. There are some refreshingly straightforward discussions on Quora answering the question “Can you give me an ethical/moral analysis of the doings of Robin Hood of Sherwood Forest?”. One starts

Robbing people solely on the basis of their wealth and giving money to people solely on the basis of their poverty is wrong, because it subverts the very nature of a cooperative economy. It undermines property rights and removes incentive to produce.

I'd say it's "robbing the rich to give to the poor" is right (i.e. a moral sentiment) but partially countered by the other stuff.

An argument that may get more traction in our present crisis is that the rich and affluent should be fined for their enormous pollution and the proceeds distributed.  e.g.  World Wide Carbon Fee and Dividend.

P.S. Apologies for the links pointing to too many of my own pieces but I've been struggling with this scientific method/economics and moral sentiments for many years. I still get uptight about it.
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Last post by Jim Hunt on Today at 10:07:48 AM »
BTW, the Chukchi is where all the action is happening recently, maybe you can get some graph or map focusing on the Chukchi and showing the lengthening of the ice-free period.

Like this for example?
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Last post by oren on Today at 09:55:39 AM »
I finally had some time again playing around with sea ice concentration data.
Thanks, very interesting stuff.
BTW, the Chukchi is where all the action is happening recently, maybe you can get some graph or map focusing on the Chukchi and showing the lengthening of the ice-free period.
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Last post by Jim Hunt on Today at 09:46:35 AM »
A new video from Kevin Pluck:

If you watch and wait for bit sea ice appears on the scene.
Arctic sea ice / Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« Last post by oren on Today at 09:45:01 AM »
13.875 to 14.125 million for me. Not expecting a significant departure from the last three years, nor a new record based on the figures so far this freezing season.
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