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The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Last post by Lurk on Today at 09:28:29 AM »
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Should lose? More exaggeration and bias over a simplistic pretty graph? Thank goodness climate science data graphs are of a higher quality. (sigh)

So in 2010 Obama's Democrats lost ~62 seats, right? In 2014 with an even lower approval rating = very close to Trumps current approval rating = the Dems lost only 10 seats. Come on, this is silly and irrelevant - a wild theory and hypothetical based on nonsense surely? 

How about relaxing and waiting patiently until the 10th November and read about the real results in the newspapers or 538 RCP or in the NYTs? No matter what Trumps approval ratings are, the Repubs could lose 60 seats, lose a 100 seats, or pickup 20 new seats for all we know. This 'graph' makes no difference to any of that.  It's mindless fodder for the masses and the gullible - so why is it being posted here?

Can't you find something really intelligent & unbiased that's backed up with credible research, data and analysis worth reading? I suspect you can't but that isn't your fault if it doesn't exist. :)
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 09:22:11 AM »
Summer is over North of 80 says the average temperature graph.

Not quite - says the estimate of actual temperature North of 80.
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Last post by mostly_lurking on Today at 09:21:05 AM »
Just an hypothesis why the above happens.

Over 50% is easy.

45%-50%...hmm.... it's like a message :" Your OK but we expected better- take a small warning"

Under 45%.... maybe : "everything is shitty and nothing will ever change" ?
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by DavidR on Today at 09:11:03 AM »
That 2017 feeling waxes again?
2018 has been highly erratic, More increases in July than any other year and more declines over 200K. This could still end up almost anywhere above 4Mkm^2. 6 of the past  11 years have had declines above 900K after this date, 2017  was a complete aberration, the lowest decline since at least 2002.
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« Last post by Eco-Author on Today at 09:08:59 AM »
So, with no place safe from utter catastrophe (if I read you right), what good is (quote) EXTREME SELF SUFFICIENCY? [You can shout louder if you used Buddy's tools  :P ]  I'd rather be a fairly good neighbor to family and stranger, alike.  There are lots of survivalists in Montana, I hear; I wish them well.  (I know one in Georgia, too.)

I have to divide that statement into two parts... No place is 'survivable' if all you do is hope to set up a homestead and farm where everything is exposed to the elements... Yet, if you Combine hundreds of what would be individual homes into very low surface area Service & Living centers... ones with sub-industrial scale CNC/3D-Printing abilities able to build a helicopter from scratch then... Yes, you start to be able to survive the extremes at the same time having the necessary industrial base capable of cleaning up the planet before everything dies off... The facility shown below would have 98% less surface area exposed to the cold of winter or the extreme heat of summer and need next to no power to keep it livable!  Economy-of-scale are fundamental principals of design!  You get more for less... The building also have 95% less land use so fewer roads and utility connections are needed as well.... Add five, dozens or hundreds of such units around a central rail line like above and yeah... you could survive anywhere!!!  110% of fresh vegitable needs can be grown in hail proof rooftop greenhouses 24/7/365

Key locations like central Canada are well away from ALL earthquakes, well away from volcanos... ocean driven super storms... and has places high enough in elevation to avoid low land flooding and sea inundation. 
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« Last post by oren on Today at 09:02:05 AM »
Thank you sidd and Bruce for sharing your experiences.
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 09:01:06 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,185,339 km2(August 18, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post...

- Extent is now just 36 k km2  (0.7 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 91 k (1.8%) above 2017 (which has started a series of below average extent losses) ,
- Extent loss to date is now 337k km2 (3.7 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 90.8 % of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.26 million km2, (excluding 2012 from the average gives 4.29 million km2 - an insignificant difference). Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 4.06 to 4.56 million km2 - also a narrowing range. For a minimum at 2nd lowest remaining melt needs to be about 22% above average, very unlikely. For a new record low remaining melt would need to be 2.01 million km2 as opposed to the average remaining melt of 0.92 million km2, i.e 1.09 million (118 %) above the average. Impossible.

Of interest (?) is that in 2012 melt from this point was just 0.21 million (23%) above the average remaining melt.

That 2017 feeling wanes and waxes- just when it looks like the melting has some legs it slows again. There is, on average, under 10% (25 days) of further extent loss to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss do a 2017 and sharply reduce? Yes.

A September minimum in the range of 4.00 to 4.50 million km2 seems probable, with the result of least drama at 0.2 million km2 above 2nd place, 0.2 million km2 below 2017 and about 1 million km2 above the 2012 outlier.
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« Last post by Bruce Steele on Today at 08:53:15 AM »
Honestly it's not as physically difficult as it is mentally so.
In the rhythm of it, chores twice a day , my charges waiting . It is not bad , they are happy and they can raise my mood. The life death thing is really tough however , I mean they trust me ,hell they like me.
If the pigs and I can prove we can run a farm without fossil fuels to run equipment well for me that
makes the years efforts worthwhile .
It is squash season and acorns are coming soon.
I am lucky today ,
A family of Oaxacans are going to start farming/gardening with me.
I have been kinda lazy lately and having help, and children around is going to help.

Re. Vegetable Excess  I have tried honor system without much trouble. Money in a bowl, make your own change.
One thing about selling roadside is the people who bother to stop and bother to come back are  generally the neighbors you'd want to meet anyhow.

Land is very expensive, wells, tractors, trucks, solar.  Margins are very tight. You could live pretty well on the hundreds of thousands of dollars it costs to get started.
My wife and I are challenging ourselves to six months without a grocery store this year. Three months last year were not a problem. The annual challenge starts January first. Volunteers ?

You gotta think years in advance to think of famine reserves. I have enough dried field corn , acorns , pigs and laying hens to get through six months and that is before this years harvest comes in.
Again it isn't that difficult but some company while gardening will be nice.

We don't have hard winters Sidd but it only rained eight inches last year. Eight years into a drought.

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« Last post by Rob Dekker on Today at 08:49:37 AM »
After blowing it up, and causing the largest refugee crisis on the planet since WWII,
Russia asks world powers to pay for Syria reconstruction :

But European and Gulf states, angered by Russia’s military intervention that tilted the war in favour of President Bashar al-Assad, will only contribute if Moscow secures a peace settlement that sets the terms for an eventual political transition, western diplomats say.

“They [Russia] go in, they mess it all up, they break everything and want everyone to pay for it,” said a European diplomat.

In general, I'd concur that the Kremlin is guilty of many grave sins.  I have trouble seeing that the current state of Syria is really among them.  They were a late comer to the conflict, mopped up much of the collapsing IS forces, and apparently laid waste to some specific locations.  "Laid waste" would probably also apply to the actions of the US in other locations, Assad in others, and IS in others.

Still, they're the last major external force standing, and if the Kremlin really wants to wield permanent sway over what happens there, maybe they should take prime responsibility for rebuilding.  Regardless, it always seems to be the Syrian people who bear the bulk of the suffering.

Thank you Steve. That is a well-argued post.

Some context : the refugee crisis increased from 4 million to more than 6 million during the time that Russia intervened in Syria.
So they did not make things better.

Russia's ambitions in Syria also appear to be limited to militarily aiding Assad, and they don't take responsibility for much else. From the article :

Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister in charge of Middle East issues, told a meeting of EU ambassadors in Moscow last week that the reconstruction of Syria would top the agenda very soon, according to European diplomats. He said “tens of billions of dollars” would be needed, while warning that “nothing” should be expected from Russia, the diplomats said.
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Last post by mostly_lurking on Today at 08:47:55 AM »
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The midterm elections could paralyze a key instrument of Trump's agenda for the US economy"

Extract: "The red boxes on the chart below represent a midterm election, plotted by the president's approval rating and the number of House seats gained or lost. Based on Gallup's approval rating, at 39%, Rattner sees the GOP losing as many as 60 seats."

1) Taking the outlier poll is disingenuous. Most of the polls ( and averages) are 42%-43%
2) There is correlation but also some way off.
3) NOTHING about the Trump presidency is standard- hard to take anything from previous times.

edit:  4) At another glance it seems that over 50% positive puts you in the safe zone and anything under is basically a toss up- anything can happen.

Funny thing is it seems being BETWEEN 45-50% is the worse case. All those under 45% (like Trump)  did ok  :)
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