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11
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Last post by rboyd on Today at 02:37:21 AM »
The only number I have found is 280ppm CO2 for pre-industrial (in the UN IPCC materials), I cannot find a preindustrial CO2e number anywhere. A calculation would also need assumptions on N2O, which was about 270 ppb in 1800.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide-3#tab-chart_5_filters=%7B%22rowFilters%22%3A%7B%7D%3B%22columnFilters%22%3A%7B%22pre_config_polutant%22%3A%5B%22N2O%20(ppb)%22%5D%7D%7D

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Last post by Lurk on Today at 02:24:26 AM »
<snip, off-topic; N.>
13
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Last post by rboyd on Today at 02:20:34 AM »
I think that the producing countries such as the USA will pull out every possible rabbit out of the hat to keep going, externalizing/delaying as many costs (water table contamination, methane leaks, regulatory costs ...) as possible as the EROI keeps falling. A possibility at some point if fracking hits the wall is some kind of government intervention on national security grounds. The attempted coup in Venezuela makes sense as a way to grab a big remaining chunk of oil reserves.

I truly hope that the Chinese EV adoption curve is very steep, forcing other car producing nations to expedite the move. The resulting crash in oil prices as the marginal demand is removed should help kill any new oil production plans.
14
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Last post by rboyd on Today at 02:13:00 AM »
The share price looks like it is heading for a retest of the $250 level which has held for quite a while, if that breaks we could quickly be at $200. That would start to severely limit what funding options, and the price of options (e.g. interest rate) that, are available to the company.

The outcomes from now on are very binary (rapid onset of financial troubles vs. gaining real profitability) with the company on the knife edge.
15
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« Last post by rboyd on Today at 02:04:56 AM »
bbr2314, attempting to shut someone down with a highly emotive image is not what I expect in this forum. There is a place for discussion, I myself definitely question the efficacy of some vaccines (e.g. the flu vaccine) while most definitely accepting the efficacy of others (e.g..smallpox, whooping cough, polio etc.). This is not a forum about vaccines, but climate change, so having noted my distaste I will not post on this subject again.
16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Juan C. GarcĂ­a on Today at 01:50:44 AM »
JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) for a blue ocean event to occur.
I like your comment, but the truth, I discard a blue ocean event (BOE) on the near future.

I think that we are on a new stage, in which it will be bad enough if on the following 12 years (2030):
   a) We have 3 years like 2012 or a little worst.
   b) We have an increase in the annual average sea level rise.
   c) We have an increase in methane emissions, because of permafrost melting.

I think that we have a big probability of seeing these three events on the following 12 years, no matter what we do.
17
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Last post by Archimid on Today at 01:40:54 AM »
If after production and deliver hell of last year and continued layoffs they can still get their employees to volunteer for extra work then Tesla's glory is secured. The employees understand the importance of Tesla's mission and the sacrifices needed to succeed.

I  also hope Tesla taps volunteers from the general public. They should formalize it and create a volunteer corp that can be properly trained to do more than just talk with other customers.
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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Ktb on Today at 01:21:44 AM »
My excel document has been retrofitted and is currently up to date.

JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) for a blue ocean event to occur.

So far, we have 1 day of above necessary extent loss (in green). However, we are still not on pace (in red).

As of March 17th, we now require daily drops of -73,131 km^2 for the next 178 days.


Of note, I have decided to limit these posts to twice per month, on the first and last days respectively.
19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by uniquorn on Today at 12:44:48 AM »
<snippage>
Stronger than normal NW winds in the Labrador sea this late winter is a continuation of a pattern we saw late last winter and spring when there was a strong atmospheric vortex around Greenland. This pattern causes larger than normal amounts of fresh water flow out of the CAA into the Labrador sea.
hmmm. It must be significantly larger than normal to let thin ice travel 200km further south.

Or perhaps just a one off fluke?
20
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Last post by mitch on March 18, 2019, 11:57:56 PM »
pre-industrial CH4 was about 700 ppb vs about 1800 ppb today:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/MethaneMatters

One should be able to make a pre-industrial CO2e.
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