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11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by thejazzmarauder on Today at 12:07:00 AM »
I’m hesitant to suggest it, as I’m not a SME and am aware of the detrimental impact of hyperbole re: climate, but is it possible that the next ~5 days could be the worst stretch for ice retention in recorded history? And I don’t only mean extent/area drops, as the effects of any preconditioning (e.g. surface melt over majority of inner basin) won’t be fully realized until later in the season. I do understand the subjective nature of this question, and am sure the 2012 GAC, while a very different type of event, will have some champions.
12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by Phoenix on July 06, 2020, 11:57:44 PM »
The latest ECM forecast (July 6, 12z) shows that the high pressure continues to stay relatively strong for not only the next 5 days, but for days 6-9 as well.  Looks like this high insolation and resulting CAB melting will continue.

Fortunately, the surface temperatures are forecast to ease off in a few days. The perfect storm of melting conditions will be a little less perfect.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2
I'm afraid I don't see it.  As long as we have surface temps at or above zero and insolation, the havoc will continue unabated.  I see no respite.

So, you're of the opinion that a surface temperature of 0.5C and 2.0C will yield the same melt rate, all other factors being equal?

My sense is that a stronger temperature gradient between the ice and surrounding air will lead to a faster rate of energy transfer.
13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« Last post by Bruce Steele on July 06, 2020, 11:50:54 PM »
Uniquorn, The ITP buoys all show a similar spike then a drop. I have a theory as to why. Melt ponds form as insolation  peaks. Cracks form which allows surface fresh water to drain, decreasing salinity and reducing temperatures of surface waters below the ice.
Light penetration is reduced as white ice is the result of the surface water draining.
On the Sami data on ITP 118 the pCO2 sensor showed a rapid drop in pCO2. This may be due to
a phytoplankton bloom absorbing Dissolved CO2 from surface waters.
14
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« Last post by sedziobs on July 06, 2020, 11:47:28 PM »
I think the point is that lefties don't have a majority and we need to find overlaps where possible to advance our agenda.

Ball doesn't suggest any compromising on issues relating to fascism.

Finding common ground is different in scope from forming an alliance, which requires compromise. Robinson's point is that any kind of alliance with right wing populists is in fact a compromise on issues relating to fascism, despite Ball's objections.

Quote
Let’s be clear about the implications of accepting the theory of politics presented in the Populist’s Guide to 2020. If we assume, as the book says, that the correct alliance is between the “new right” and “new left,” then Bernie Sanders supporters have more in common with Donald Trump than with Joe Biden. In fact, I think one could take away from this book that it would make more sense for the Left to vote for Trump than Biden. But this is madness: Trump represents everything we are trying to destroy. I have written before about the dangers of accepting “nationalism wrapped in socialist rhetoric,” in the context of reviewing Tucker Carlson’s book. Carlson, like Enjeti, rants about billionaire elites, but is also a racist whom the Daily Stormer has called their “greatest ally.”
currentaffairs.org/2020/06/isnt-right-wing-populism-just-fascism
15
Science / Re: Satellite News
« Last post by gerontocrat on July 06, 2020, 11:43:36 PM »
You are incorrectly informed. JAXA firmly intends to launch into space a replacement AMSR2, AMSR3, around 2023.

In the near future, we will only lose NSDIC data. They are low resolution, and now are of little value.
"and now are of little value." Pardon? I assume you do not access the NSIDC data on the 2020 Area & Extent Data" thread. Time for me to shut up shop? Time for NSIDC to close down?
An awful lot of scientists might disagree with your view.

The problem is that you cannot properly merge new high-res data into the low-res NSIDC record without a long overlap to establish the variation between the results from the different sensors, and even then comparisons between data from NSIDC and the new datasets may be problematical. That is why no-one links the high-res data from AMSR2 to the NSIDC data record.

I asked NSIDC last September about their plans - the answer was...

"As for the satellite series, we are investigating the alternatives, but we don't have any information published yet."
_______________________________
It is possible the new JAXA satellite will produce 2 data streams, one lower-res for compatibility with the current JAXA long-term record, and the other higher-res to take advantage of the no doubt improved sensors on board.
16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by uniquorn on July 06, 2020, 11:37:49 PM »
the motion of #103 has me rethinking my notions of Beaufort  Sea ice motion, is a bee line dash along the coast like that common?
The sea ice age animation here gives a reasonable indication of ice movement over the last 20 years
17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by jdallen on July 06, 2020, 11:33:03 PM »
The latest ECM forecast (July 6, 12z) shows that the high pressure continues to stay relatively strong for not only the next 5 days, but for days 6-9 as well.  Looks like this high insolation and resulting CAB melting will continue.

Fortunately, the surface temperatures are forecast to ease off in a few days. The perfect storm of melting conditions will be a little less perfect.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2
I'm afraid I don't see it.  As long as we have surface temps at or above zero and insolation, the havoc will continue unabated.  I see no respite.
18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by Sublime_Rime on July 06, 2020, 11:32:52 PM »
Quote

Fortunately, the surface temperatures are forecast to ease off in a few days. The perfect storm of melting conditions will be a little less perfect.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2

I hope the GFS run you cite is correct, but I fear that the Euro has been more accurate at predicting both the high pressure intensity and the temperature anomalies these last two weeks that I have been following both more closely (GFS has been running cool and lower pressure, Euro slightly hot and above pressure). Below is what the Euro 12Z says about d5, d7 and d9. Only the Beaufort and parts of CAA are spared the heat. The GEM corroborates pretty closely w/r/t heat position, but is even worse in magnitude (of heat and HP). I also attached GEM 12Z d9.
19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« Last post by uniquorn on July 06, 2020, 11:29:59 PM »
closer to -0.9C
20
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« Last post by Phoenix on July 06, 2020, 11:29:37 PM »
Tomorrow, progressives have another shot at a centrist incumbent Democrat in New Jersey with Dr. Arati Kreibich taking on conservative Josh Gottheimer. Results won't be immediate with the heavy mail in vote taking time to count.

Gottheimer is the favorite with the huge fundraising haul, but there is hope that the NY results will spill over into NJ and make the race more competitive.

An interesting spin on this race is that Kreibich was a volunteer for Gottheimer in the 2018 election but is not pleased with his centrist voting record.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/politics/new-jersey-5-primary-josh-gottheimer-arati-kreibich/index.html
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