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Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Last post by Archimid on Today at 03:06:17 AM »
 Ken Feldman thanks for the links and for trying to bring relevant peer reviewed science into the conversation. However, none of those links invalidate the very credible and possible danger positive carbon loops may create. 

 Carbon release is exactly the natural mechanism the Earth uses to go from glacial period to warm. We are warming the Earth abnormally fast. We should expect a proportional response from the climate. Instead, it seems that the basic assumption is that because the climate changed slowly in the past it will also change slowly from human induced warming.  That assumption may cost us our world, yet is the most natural. Natural because we have no data on fast climate change. Even the PETM was too slow relative to modern warming.

 The possible sources of positive carbon feedback loops are not just methane from the deep sea and pingos. It is GHGs from frozen ground, under river, under lakes and from burning forests and peat. That's on top of human emissions.  The Earth is reacting as it always does when it warms, it warms more until carbon is depleted or Milankovitch cycles are not favorable to warming.

It really worries me that the IPCC reads almost dismissive of the argument as if it was some far fetched scenario, when it should be the expected scenario. I blame that on the fact that scientist in climate science don't have the luxury of double blind experimentation. They are part of the experiment.
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« Last post by oren on Today at 02:12:12 AM »
Thank you Tor for this bit of investigative armchair science.
The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« Last post by sidd on Today at 02:05:56 AM »
Adler at NYT: Populists are not the ones retreating from democracy, but the centrists are

a) most skeptical of democracy
b) least likely to support free anf fair elections
c) least likely to support liberal institutions
d) more supportive of authoritarians than the far left worlwide, but he finds that "In the United States, centrists’ support for a strongman-type leader far surpasses that of the right and the left."

I remarked elsewhere that corporate dems and corporate repubs were allying. That's because they are more like each other.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Last post by vox_mundi on Today at 01:37:25 AM »
U.S. forces employees to work on oil-drilling land sales during Trump government shutdown

(CNN) – The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is bringing back employees who were furloughed to work on sales of land for oil and gas drilling purposes in the Gulf of Mexico, according to an updated Department of Interior shutdown plan.

 ...  "Donald Trump may have closed the government to the American people, but he's hung up an 'open for business' sign for corporate polluters," Brune said in a statement. "During his shameful government shutdown, Trump is showing us his backwards vision for our country: a government that prioritizes fossil fuel industry profits at all costs, while American families are left out in the cold." 
The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« Last post by sidd on Today at 12:45:14 AM »
Taibbi at rollingstone with a bit of history: of neocons and corporate dems

"Because they started this Middle East disaster on a lie and even bragged about doing so — “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality” — they undermined faith in a smorgasbord of American institutions, from the news media to the presidency to the intelligence community to their own party."

"longtime Democratic Party advisers are once again triangulating against their party’s own progressive wing, which was the core strategy of the original “Third Way” Democrats in the early Nineties. Party leaders now want to kick out populist, antiwar liberals in the same way Frum once wanted to excommunicate antiwar conservatives."

"Glenn Greenwald noted in the Intercept last year, the “most extreme and discredited neocons” began uniting with Democrats “long before the ascension of Donald Trump.” "

Taibbi quotes Heilbrun from 2014: “Even as they castigate Mr. Obama, the neocons may be preparing a more brazen feat: aligning themselves with Hillary Rodham Clinton and her nascent presidential campaign, in a bid to return to the driver’s seat of American foreign policy.”

Robert Kagan talked about a union with Democrats, hoping to replace the term “neoconservative” with the less-infamous-sounding “liberal interventionist.”

"The union achieved formal expression in 2016 with groups like the Alliance for Securing Democracy, which is backed by neocons like Kristol and Jamie Fly as well as former Joe Biden and Clinton campaign security adviser Jake Sullivan."

"The neocons are trying to create with Democrats a true political movement of shared goals and common adversaries. Apart from “liberal interventionism,” they’re emphasizing stridently anti-populist leanings "

"Just don’t be surprised if “liberal interventionists” are sitting in the White House once Trump leaves the scene. These are determined revolutionaries who’ve been scheming for years to throw a saddle on the Democratic Party after decades in bed with Republicans. Sadly, they have willing partners over there."

Read the whole thing:

Science / Re: Underground temperatures trends
« Last post by Bernard on Today at 12:31:40 AM »
This one is behind a paywall

Evidence of climate warming from underground temperatures in NW Italy


The ground surface temperature (GST) history in NW Italy was reconstructed for the last three centuries by means of temperature–depth data recorded in a borehole in 1982. The results indicate relatively warmer periods in the 18th century and at the end the 1970s. A more recent set of underground temperature data was recorded in 1996. The comparison with the earlier thermal logging shows an evident temperature increase in the uppermost 80 m. Two different inversion techniques yield a subsurface temperature increase of 0.8–1.0 K since the 1980s. The inferred climatic model is consistent with the air temperature variations recorded at the Genoa University meteorological station.
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Last post by Wherestheice on Today at 12:23:28 AM »
As i stated above, i think one thing we can all agree on is more research is needed on this topic
Science / Underground temperatures trends
« Last post by Bernard on Today at 12:20:44 AM »
I just posted this, a bit off-topic, on another thread about permafrost warming.,2546.msg186586.html#msg186586
But thought it was worth a topic by itself.

The global warming could also be measured anywhere in underground, whether this underground is frozen or not. At depths around 20m, the temperature is mostly stable year-round, and is close to the mean ground temperature. It's a bit of work to borehole at such depths, but not that much, and there are quite a lot of caves worldwide where the temperature could be measured.
Given the stability of underground temperatures year-round, to have interesting series it would not even be necessary to measure it on a daily basis.

Anyone knows science papers on such topics?
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Last post by Ken Feldman on Today at 12:14:17 AM »
And I'll also note that Sharkova's extreme claims are made in interviews and press releases, not in the peer reviewed science. 

And being published in a peer-reviewed journal is only the first step in science.  After publication, other scientists then attempt to replicate the measurents or observations.  And as I've noted repeatedly, other teams that have conducted similiar studies to Sharkova and Semilotov have found much lower emissions of methane from the "hot spots" or seeps found in the ESAS and other parts of the Arctic Ocean. 

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