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Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.

Operating theory is "we are in a runaway abrupt climate flip" and I want to disprove it to myself, but bear it in mind that I am completely unconstrained in my thinking & language.  Full power Dunning-Kruger.  This is from a lone mind bent on survival.  I don't have any allegiance or hesitancy based on academic norms.

I managed to click on the running mean AO index from 1950-present over here

Added Paint.exe black line connecting the Jan 1 position for the last couple of years.  It would seem reasonable to guess that the AO index will be hovering around neutral on Jan 1 2020.
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Last post by Tom_Mazanec on Today at 09:19:47 PM »
Major hurricanes, though, are below average. This is what I would expect to most increase, so I am a bit surprised.
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 09:19:37 PM »
I would have thought the open / closed / in transit status of shipping (e.g. hydrocarbon exports ) would give a good clue...

as an example
Not any more. The ships have changed & are changing...

There is already a fleet of LNG tankers with considerable ice-breaking capability and it is growing.

Putin has the dream of year-round shipping and his ice-breaker fleet is being refurbished with new monsters on the drawing board & under construction to keep the route open & escort shipping.
Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« Last post by kassy on Today at 09:02:32 PM »
Interesting part about the lightning.

We clearly need some new global standards for shipping.
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Last post by Archimid on Today at 08:51:49 PM »
For a second I thought about using bold, but I didn't. The problem is that there is too much to be bolded and it loses effectiveness. I'll try again.

The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The number of named storms ranked as a tie for the tenth most on record. Both of the major hurricanes — Florence and Michael — impacted the U.S. mainland causing approximately 49 billion in damages between them and contributed to one of the costliest years in terms of weather and climate disasters for the nation. Although Florence weakened significantly before making landfall as a Category 1 storm, she brought unprecedented amounts of rainfall and subsequent flooding to parts of North and South Carolina. During the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storms Alberto and Gordon as well as Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall in the U.S.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 08:44:10 PM »
By the way, I still think that endless discussions on what charts that use extent & area are best to predict an ice-free Arctic are a waste of time because:-
- CO2 ppm is increasing at an accelerating rate (looks like will at 3 ppm per year this year)
- There is evidence that the Carbon Sinks are not doing so well, (recent post by AbruptSLR re the Southern Ocean & some work I did on carbon sinks c.f. emissions and CO" increases),
- Global Surface ar temps at record levels in an ENSO neutral year plus scary WMO report on recent trends.

BUT - I read the NSIDC talking about a hiatus in extent loss & I think it is WRONG.. Even though they emphasise caveats & the need to look at longer-term trends, it is God's gift to the denier industry.

So here is a 2nd post about it.

By why stop with your so-called exaggerated years in one direction only?  If your are going to selectively discard data points, why not toss out the high years of 2000 and 2006 also?

Indeed, why not? So I googled to refresh my hazy memory of a Uni course on Mathematical Statistics to fin the standard methodology for identification of outliers. (That course was so long ago for analysis we did it by hand on mechanical machine Babbage would have recognised.)

It got wider - seems to be a big thing in machine learning (AI ?):-
Machine Learning Mastery
How to Use Statistics to Identify Outliers in Data

Sometimes a dataset can contain extreme values that are outside the range of what is expected and unlike the other data. These are called outliers and often machine learning modeling and model skill in general can be improved by understanding and even removing these outlier values.

- An outlier is an unlikely observation in a dataset and may have one of many causes.
-Standard deviation can be used to identify outliers in Gaussian or Gaussian-like data.
- The interquartile range can be used to identify outliers in data regardless of the distribution.

I followed the recognised  interquartile range method using absolute deviations from the "expected" value from the linear regression used by NSIDC & me in these graphs

For NSIDC Extent it told me to dump an extra year, the very high extent value in 1996.

I did they same analysis or PIOMAS September volume, and it told me to dump 3 years, all very low values, 1981, 1982, and 2012.

The answers re all the same -
- there is barely any change from the linear regression with or without the "outlier years",
- there is no "hiatus" in the steady loss of Arctic Sea Ice extent as implied on the 3rd October  NSIDC analysis (

Within the overall decline, it is notable that the most recent 13 years, from 2007 to 2019, have shown very little decline (Figure 3b). Both 2007 and 2012 were extreme low extent years, and variability has been high in this period. However, an earlier 13 year period, 1999 to 2012, shows a rate of decline that is more than double the overall rate in the satellite record. This illustrates the challenge of extracting a quantitative rate of decline in a highly variable system like sea ice, and the benefits of looking at decadal, and not year-to-year variations.
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« Last post by be cause on Today at 08:24:01 PM »  is taken from Andreas T's post on the abandoned Mosaic project thread and covers a similar journey a few years ago .. a good read . b.c.
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 08:12:53 PM »
These Are The Surprising Cars More People Get Rid Of In The First Year (Wait, How Many Are BMW's?)


VW Is Considering Options for Lamborghini Brand in Overhaul

JPR007 (@jpr007) 10/11/19, 5:38 PM
VW appears to be in more serious cash flow trouble than we have generally been considering.
When you short your employees’ Pension Fund by €33 billion, apparently including pulling real Cash out of it, things must be pretty desperate . . .
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/12/19, 3:54 AM
I wonder what the German government has to say about this.
Should companies be required to always fully fund future pension obligations?
This is a travesty:
VA: VW didn’t literally “short” the pension fund. What @jpr007 is saying is that VW has failed to keep up with the growing pension obligations in terms of setting aside cash to ensure such obligations are fully funded.
JPR007: But it is right there on their audited and published Balance Sheet.
If they had funded the Pension obligation that €33 billion should not be there on the Liability side of the Balance Sheet.
€33 billion.
And now they no longer have the Cash to fund it.
Images below.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/1/19, 6:52 AM
Q4 2019 will be the last profitable quarter for many legacy automakers.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/12/19, 9:49 AM
If you think some of the stuff I tweet is edgy, you should see the stuff I type and delete...
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Last post by be cause on Today at 08:12:40 PM »
Republican Hurricanes are obviously stronger than Democratic ones , esp. when it comes to landfall in the good ol' you ass of A . b.c.
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Last post by charles_oil on Today at 08:12:35 PM »

I would have thought the open / closed / in transit status of shipping (e.g. hydrocarbon exports ) would give a good clue...

as an example
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