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21
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Last post by Paddy on January 16, 2019, 11:57:30 PM »
To the two respondents at the extreme ends of this poll (>14.5 and <13.25): would you rather I had included a wider range of values, and exactly how high / low are you predicting the max might be?
22
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« Last post by johnm33 on January 16, 2019, 11:52:15 PM »
Catherine Austin Fitts addresses whats going on behind the smokescreen.
23
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« Last post by Bernard on January 16, 2019, 11:35:54 PM »
I just read the quoted article at phys.org
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-pace-world-permafrost-soils.html
One thing I was wondering is if similar studies are conducted in other places than permafrost. We have measures of sea water temperatures at different depths, but the global warming should also be measured in mean temperatures of underground, at depths where the temperature is stable year-round (about 10-20m if what I read is correct), whether this underground is frozen or not.
This is a bit off-topic, please point me to an existing thread if any.

Meanwhile, I created one such topic
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2548.0.html
24
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Last post by Sigmetnow on January 16, 2019, 10:27:49 PM »
The polar vortex splits, sending frigid air howling into the U.S., Europe.
  Conditions could remain into March.

Quote
The big picture: The switch to a cold, snowy pattern from the Midwest to the East Coast has its roots in an event that took place in December and early January at about 100,000 feet above the Earth's surface.

Temperatures in the stratosphere suddenly spiked, in what's known as a "sudden stratospheric warming" event. This gradually disrupted the polar vortex, much like a person bumping a spinning top and causing it to spin off balance, slow down and meander drunkenly across a table.

Experts told Axios that what's happening now — with a major winter storm about to cross the country from west to east, dumping 1–2 feet of snow in the Northeast and opening the gates to Arctic air behind it — is indicative of a weather pattern triggered by the stratospheric warming event and polar vortex split.
...
Some of the biggest East Coast snowstorms on record, ones that paralyzed the big cities from Washington to Boston, occurred when such blocking weather patterns were in place.
...
The bottom line: Get your cold weather gear ready. Tens of millions from the Midwest to the East Coast and over into Europe may be in for a wild ride during the second half of the winter.
https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-means-winter-is-coming-to-east-coast-and-europe-5fb653fd-1664-41aa-9a99-549e2541d89a.html
25
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« Last post by Susan Anderson on January 16, 2019, 10:23:43 PM »
@Neven
As usual, I have the impression you either didn't read it or made no effort to set aside your bias when you did so. Ignoring what one doesn't want to think about and promoting what one prefers is no way to discern the truth.

The posse "wins". The earth loses.
27
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Last post by Superbudgie1582 on January 16, 2019, 09:32:26 PM »

Methane Calthrates at the bottom of the ocean should remain stable due to the sheer pressure and the difficulty of warming the bottom depths. It is an overblown concern that has been studied and largely disproven.

studied and largely disproven.

At the bottom of the ocean - yes, most methane degraded on the way to the surface
In shallow seas with slow methane escape. Yes, most methane degraded on the way to the surface.

Abrupt release in shallow seas (e.g. a goodly part of the ESAS is below 10 metres depth) - No. Shakhova etc have observed such emissions.
Longer and earlier open water seasons will allow increased insolation and warm water intrusion. This may accelerate warming of ocean bottom permafrost and the clathrate lid on free methane under pressure underneath.

Are current emissions sufficient to make a major impact on global methane ppb? No(t yet).
Can this risk be casually dismissed - no.
Is this risk disproven ? No. We don't really know what lies beneath in this vast area of the ocean.

Are current emissions sufficient to make a major impact on methane ppb? No(t yet).
As of today the subject belongs in the known unknown basket, IM(notvery)HO.

I point you to Kevin Feldmans post on the prior page that directly mentions Shakhova overestimating potential methane release from the ESAS.

To not consider the possibility of a methane release is suicidal

I don't recall dismissing it(I mention IPCC estimates for permafrost melt)but you'll have to excuse me if I consider McPherson like rhetoric unhelpful.
28
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Last post by sidd on January 16, 2019, 09:30:22 PM »
Peakers, storage and batteries: duration matters

"I can beat a gas peaker anywhere in the country today with a solar-plus-storage power plant,"

" Hohenstein advocated a "duration portfolio" approach that uses energy storage to shave peak load. "

"When solar penetration is lower than about 11%, the potential of four-hour storage is lower than it would be with zero solar deployment because solar penetration of 11% or less flattens the load curve. Above 11% penetration, however, NREL found that solar power creates a "peakier" load curve that increases the potential of four-hour storage."

"the cost of energy storage is highly dependent on the number of hours of duration needed."

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/unlayering-peak-demand-could-accelerate-energy-storage-adoption/546098/

sidd
29
The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« Last post by Neven on January 16, 2019, 09:25:37 PM »
Update on the biggest collective waste of time ever, time we don't have:

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« Last post by sidd on January 16, 2019, 09:22:19 PM »
Former head regulator for US nukes turns apostate: " nuclear power is more hazardous than it is worth "

"Because the industry relies too much on controlling its own regulation, the continued use of nuclear power will lead to catastrophe"

Regulatory capture. It's the new black.

https://www.wtae.com/article/former-top-regulator-now-says-nuclear-power-hazardous/25888972

sidd
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