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If someone would have told you 50 years ago how good we would become at predicting the path of a hurricane, you probably wouldn't have believed them.

We're going to get there with SLR.

Predicting the real time path of a hurricane involves understanding a number of small processes (wind sheer, water temperatures, location of lows, highs and fronts) in a very specific time frame. Predicting SLR involves understanding processes that are linked across the planet and occur over decades, an entire systems analysis. One is far more difficult than the other IMHO.

AbruptSLR's research rich posts here certainly demonstrate this complexity.

I visit this thread daily and always struggle to understand the research that AbruptSLR posts. If it were not for the abstracts and plain language summaries, it would be hopeless.
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by oren on Today at 01:41:56 PM »
First year ice is not really fresh. But this should be discussed in detail in a different thread.
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Human Habitat Index on Today at 01:39:05 PM »
The extent declines have been slow because all the easy ice on the Pacific side was gone very early and because the ice margins have large areas of dispersed ice.

If the weather in June and July is like 2017 expect a similar outcome. Most of the melting season is ahead of us. We know the ice is in trouble on a decadal scale, but we cannot predict reliably what July's weather will be.

So the climate may be determined by the weather  ;D
The rest / Re: Climate on Reddit
« Last post by b_lumenkraft on Today at 01:37:46 PM »
No, Tom!

I would like to hear a valid argument from Rod why they perceive you as a troll. Opening new threads isn't valid as an argument IMHO.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by Rich on Today at 01:36:42 PM »
Another question. It's not absolutely clear to me that the the freezing point of salt water (-1.8C) is the same as the melting point of sea ice.

The freezing process separates the salt from the water molecules, no?

The substance being melted is not the same substance which was originally separated and frozen. It seems like the melting point of the fresh water ice should still be 0C.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Last post by Shared Humanity on Today at 01:36:42 PM »
Earlier onset of melt and lower ending SMB than 2012. Wasn't 2012 a dreadful year for Greenland melt?
Year round skiing in California?
This illustrates "the theory that belongs to me" perfectly well, I guess Mammoth Mountain has sufficient elevation in spite of latitude to potentially be on the same path as *other regions* (ahem). I won't drag the thread off-topic, but this will be a very interesting situation to watch unfold as we head further into summer. LA Times says the only times this has happened before were 1995 (ending 8/13) and 2017 (ending 8/6).

If we make it to 8/15 or 8/20, is that late enough in the year for snow to begin falling once more? The continuity of this state is what makes earlier snowfalls more likely given the extant reservoir, IMO, which is why it is "relatively" easy to get snow falling all year once you make it into August. If snow melts by June or July, it is difficult to get snow until late September, and it probably won't be sticking substantially until October. The extant base changes this equation, and sensible weather, substantially.
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Shared Humanity on Today at 01:32:11 PM »
There are posters here who have been here for years and have developed ways to present data that help inform the entire community. Instead of asking for different data, use the data to track conditions and develop insights or questions related to processes.
The rest / Re: Climate on Reddit
« Last post by Tom_Mazanec on Today at 01:28:13 PM »
I'll tell you what is strange.
A couple bullies ganged up on me, twisting what I write and calling me a troll and if I protested that just proved them right.
I learned what a "troll" is about twenty years ago on a palmpilot bulletin board, where someone called me that for asking if, in a decade or so, someone like Apple could come out with something that replaced the palmpilot. Guess a decade or so Apple did come out with something that replaced the palmpilot.
I came this close to quitting this forum...if it hadn't been for Lurk I would be gone.
I think AGW is the second worst problem in the world today. Once I thought Peak Oil would save us from it (as at one time did neven) but it looks like that is not the case now. Does that make me a troll?
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by kassy on Today at 01:27:33 PM »
We have regular graphs for easy access or the place of current vs historic years.

I donĀ“t want an extra layer so i have to check if the actual number is rounded up or down if that would be interesting.
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