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21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Temperatures at Eureka, Nunavut, Canada
« Last post by Csnavywx on Today at 04:21:03 PM »
Temperature differentials like this can also be driven by sea breezes, secondary circulations that set up when differences in density arise from differential solar heating and/or thermal inertia. I typically deal with one on a daily basis at the station I work at. A temperature drop of a few degrees often occurs. The difference here is that the sun never sets and the difference is very large due to ice. I would imagine that sea breeze to be very persistent as long as the gradient wind doesn't get strong enough to wash it out.
22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by JamesW on Today at 04:08:59 PM »
With the difference between area and extent growing. Is there anyone here that can reproduce the compaction chart that Neven so kindly put up occasionally during the melting season? I think it might be of worth at this point.
23
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 03:44:50 PM »
—— Starlink
Quote
Matt (@Booster_Buddies) 7/2/20, 4:35 AM
The @SpaceX fairing made their way back to @PortCanaveral and are in perfect shape it seems.
The teams are getting good at this.
The booster from the GPS-III mission will head into port tomorrow during the daytime.
https://twitter.com/booster_buddies/status/1278608157900750848
Four (nighttime) photos at the link.

Julia (@julia_bergeron) 7/2/20, 7:05 AM
The Sisters Ms. Chief and Ms. Tree are back with their catches. It appears there are complete halves. Tug Lauren Foss and JRTI have quite a bit to go with B1060.1. Early estimate is later tomorrow (5pm-ish) but it is too soon to know for sure. #SpaceXFleet #GPSIII …
https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1278645870825820162
Marine tracking map at the link.


Quote
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 7/2/20, 3:02 PM
Targeting Wednesday, July 8 for Falcon 9’s tenth launch of Starlink, which will also carry 2 spacecraft from @SpaceflightInc’s customer BlackSky to orbit
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1278765952935419904

Quote
Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) 6/30/20, 11:48 AM
#SATCON1 - talk by Mike Sholl from SpaceX (optics expert formerly involved in SNAP and WFIRST). Visorsat is showing good preliminary results. Plan now is to go with visors rather than Darksat-style coatings.
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1277992421364768773


—- Starship
Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 7/1/20, 7:43 PM
Amazing raw video from Starship SN5's successful Cryogenic Proof Test (Tuesday/Wednesday) - with the epic sound of Starship breathing for the first time.

Video and Pictures from Mary (@BocaChicaGal). Edited by Jack Beyer (@thejackbeyer)
https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1278474243173502977

SpaceX Boca Chica - Starship SN5 Cryo Test - Sights and Sounds - YouTube


—-
Quote
Jack Beyer (@thejackbeyer) 7/2/20, 1:47 AM
Starship SN5 was readied for a Raptor engine, a new nosecone was moved out of the fabrication tents, and the tracking station tracked GPSIII shortly after launch in today's update. Video/Photos by Mary (@BocaChicaGal) for @NASASpaceflight. Edited by me.
https://twitter.com/thejackbeyer/status/1278565868176150528

SpaceX Boca Chica - Starship SN5 Preps for Raptor and Tracking Station Action - YouTube


Quote
Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 7/2/20, 3:29 PM
New road closures in Boca Chica for Starship SN5 static fire testing starting July 8. Not sure if we will see a static fire on the first day or just spin prime and preburner tests. … 
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1278772831505924096

—-
Quote
Starship launches necessitate new FAA review. The Federal Aviation Administration has begun a new environmental review, known as an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), of SpaceX's South Texas Launch Site. "The current testing falls within the current EIS. However, a full-scale Starship launch site falls outside the scope of the 2014 EIS. The FAA is in the early stages of an environmental review. Any proposal must meet the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act and the FAA's policies and procedures," the FAA told the Border Report.

Things have changed in six years ... When SpaceX asked the FAA for (and got) permission to build the world's first commercial space-launch facility in South Texas back in 2014, it told the agency and South Texas communities that this site would be used to launch its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. For years, environmentalists have pushed for a new review as SpaceX has widened its plans for South Texas to include possible Starship launches.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/rocket-report-dod-rescinds-rocket-awards-europeans-talk-up-ariane-7/


—- OneWeb is rescued
British government and Bharti Global buy OneWeb, plan $1 billion investment to revive company
https://spacenews.com/british-government-and-bharti-global-buy-oneweb-plan-1-billion-investment-to-revive-company/
24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by ArcticMelt2 on Today at 03:33:00 PM »
Back to to the NSIDC comparison tool just to provide a little more visual information here re recent posts, while wholly respecting the correlation analysis, Arctic Melt.  It is striking to me how similar the ice distributions are in 2014 and 2020 on July 1 (the date the tool made me choose).  But the extent to which the Siberian side, the Laptev and the Kara, have melted out this year still stands out visually vs. even compared with 2014. 

Thanks for the informative diagram.

BTW: Does early melting of the Kara significantly affect general dynamics of melting in the CAB?

I think the Kara Sea has little effect on the amount of summer melting. On the contrary, the Beaufort Sea and the Laptev Sea are key seas, due to the general picture of ice drift Beaufort cycle.

At the moment, the Laptev Sea is leading in all types of regional graphs (extent or area), unlike the Beaufort Sea its ice cover is close to long-term average values.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 03:31:40 PM »
NSIDC Sea Ice Area - random observations.

The contrast between the sea ice area in the High Arctic (2nd lowest) and the Peripheral Seas (13th lowest) is, if anything, increasing. It may all end up largely depending on the balance between ice export from the Central Arctic into the Greenland Sea.

The Laptev Sea melt continues apace.

The Central Arctic Sea is suddenly losing a lot of sea ice area - i.e. melt is nibbling away at North of 80.
26
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« Last post by kassy on Today at 03:22:23 PM »
Study confirms ultra music festival likely stressful to fish

MIAMI--A new study published in the Journal Environmental Pollution by researchers at the University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science found that the Ultra Music Festival was likely stressful to toadfish.

An interdisciplinary team of researchers findings show that the fish experienced a significant stress response on the first day of the Ultra Music Festival in March 2019 on Virginia Key, Florida when there was elevated noise.

"The stress response was similar to what toadfish would experience when hearing bottlenose dolphins, a toadfish predator," said the study's co-investigator Danielle McDonald, professor of marine biology and ecology at the UM Rosenstiel School.

...

In addition to testing cortisol levels, the research team placed recording devices to measure sound intensity in the air and underwater. Hydrophones were placed in the toadfish tanks and in the waters directly next to the Ultra stages in Bear Cut Inlet in the Historic Virginia Key Beach Park and in Lamar Lake, a shallow mangrove lagoon further north.

"Recordings revealed that the sound intensity increased by 7-9 decibels in the toadfish tanks and 2-3 decibels in the nearby waters of Bear Cut in the low frequency range where fish are the most sensitive to changes in sound pressure," said co-investigator Claire Paris, professor of ocean sciences at the UM Rosenstiel School. "Variations in the sonic activity of marine organisms and additional noise from boat traffic may have contributed to the signal detected in Bear Cut during Ultra. In situ measurements, including long term acoustic recording, are necessary to evaluate the effect of Ultra on wild fish populations."

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/uomr-scu070120.php

The festival:

Ultra Music Festival (often abbreviated as UMF) is an annual outdoor electronic music festival that takes place during March in Miami, Florida, United States.[1] The festival was founded in 1999 by Russell Faibisch and Alex Omes and is named after the 1997 Depeche Mode album, Ultra.[2]

...

The 2019 edition was held from March 29–31, 2019. On September 27, 2018, the commissioners of Miami voted unanimously against allowing the festival to be hosted at Bayfront Park, citing noise complaints and other concerns among downtown residents.[111][112][113]

In November 2018, festival organizers proposed moving Ultra to the barrier island of Virginia Key, using the Historic Virginia Key Beach Park and the Miami Marine Stadium as venues.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_Music_Festival#2019
27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« Last post by Pagophilus on Today at 03:22:16 PM »
Back to to the NSIDC comparison tool just to provide a little more visual information here re recent posts, while wholly respecting the correlation analysis, Arctic Melt.  It is striking to me how similar the ice distributions are in 2014 and 2020 on July 1 (the date the tool made me choose).  But the extent to which the Siberian side, the Laptev and the Kara, have melted out this year still stands out visually vs. even compared with 2014.  BTW: Does early melting of the Kara significantly affect general dynamics of melting in the CAB?


IMO the day-over-day change in Laptev viewable in EOSDIS indicates the impending situation will result in 2020 taking a mile-long lead.

The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years.

The year over year comparison is shocking, lol. Laptev just went poof!

I completely agree. Now I’ve looked at the state of the Laptev Sea on July 1, 2012, and it is simply incomparable with the current situation.

This year is most likely to break the 2012 record among any of the last 8 years.

But yesterday, all the same, doubts arose that the 2012 record would be broken. On the second place by the minimum ice extent in the Laptev Sea on July 1, not 2012, 2014 (data NSDIC extent):

2014 is only 50,000 km2 behind 2020. In 2014, there was weak melting (minimum about 5 million km2), although the edge of sea ice receded to 85 degrees.

So fortunately, the 2012 record this year is not in danger. Most likely the forecast according to SMOS for June is the most accurate.

Quote
The June monthly average has a good correlation with the September NSIDC sea ice extent.  The correlation coefficient is 0.86 over 2010-2019  (and even 0.95 if 2010 is excluded).  FWIW, this would give a prediction for the September 2020 NSIDC extent of 4.49 +/- 0.52 million km2 (95% prediction interval).
28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 03:11:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 02-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,837,185 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 6,837,185    km2      
-268,830    km2   <   2010's average.
 108,490    km2   >   2019
-891,785    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -138    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -39    k   loss
Central Seas___   -99    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    11    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -53    k   loss
Laptev_______   -19    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 138 k, 34 k more than the 2010's average loss of 104 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 269 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 892 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 78 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 108 k more than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 245 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Some more large area losses guaranteed for the next 2-3 days at least, courtesy of the 5-day trailing average.
29
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Last post by kassy on Today at 03:10:43 PM »
Farewell smooth handfish: What can we learn from the world's first marine fish extinction?

Earlier this month, a group of Australian scientists confirmed a depressing landmark for our blue planet: The first marine fish of modern times has been declared extinct on the IUCN RedList. The smooth handfish (Sympterichthys unipennis) was one of 14 (now 13) species of handfish, beautifully patterned creatures with a distinctly "missing link" look about them. Residing only in south-eastern Australian waters, these striking animals are bottom-dwellers that use their highly modified pectoral fins to "walk" along the seabed.

Smooth handfish were once so common in south-eastern Australia that it was one of the first species collected in an early scientific exploration of the country in the early 1800s by French zoologist François Péron. The species is now only known from the specimen collected in that expedition; during extensive in-water surveys of the species' limited range since 2000, divers found no smooth handfish individuals, declaring it extinct.

...

Given the way many marine fish breed (through sending their larvae into the water column, where they may disperse across great distances) and how variably human pressures can affect them, confirming that a marine fish species is extinct is notoriously difficult. Handfish are unusual fish in that they don't have a midwater stage for their larvae. Instead, they give birth to fully formed juveniles directly on to the seabed. This means they only live in a handful of highly specialised areas and are therefore highly vulnerable to being fished or having the habitat they breed on disturbed. The story of the smooth handfish should stop us in our tracks and make us think long and hard about what price we're willing to pay for our seafood, about what lies behind the notion of "sustainable" fisheries.

Destructive fishing practices

The fishing activities that probably contributed to the extinction of the smooth handfish ended 53 years ago. The scientists note in their Redlist assessment that "this species was probably impacted, through both direct mortality as bycatch and destruction of habitat, by the large historical scallop fishery that was active in the region through the 20th century until the fishery collapsed in 1967". So, we didn't hunt or overfish the handfish to extinction—it wasn't being targeted. We overfished the scallops and the handfish was caught in the crossfire. Like the blind cave fish threatened by cement extraction or the scaly-foot snail pushed to the brink by proposed deep seabed mining, the handfish was the collateral damage of the destructive methods used to extract resources from our planet.

and more on:
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-farewell-smooth-handfish-world-marine.html
30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by vox_mundi on Today at 02:33:47 PM »
US Included On England's Covid-19 'Red List'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/03/us-included-on-englands-covid-19-red-list-for-travellers

The US will be on a “red list” of high-risk countries [like India, Brazil, & Russia] that people in England are advised not to visit for non-essential reasons because of its continued high level of coronavirus cases, the government has confirmed.

Travel restrictions will be relaxed in England for more than 50 countries including nearly all EU countries, British territories such as Bermuda and Gibraltar, and Australia and New Zealand.

----------------------------------

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

----------------------------------

Mexican State Considers Closing US Border as Arizona Cases Rise
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/03/coronavirus-live-news-cases-rising-us-states-update-brazil-covid-19-infections-latest-updates

Mexico’s coronavirus outbreak rose by a record 6,741 confirmed cases and 679 deaths Thursday, putting the country’s toll of 29,189 Covid-19 deaths higher than Spains, though the milestone was overshadowed by the resurgence in the United States.

Reacting to a spike in virus cases reported in Arizona, the top health official in the neighbouring Mexican state of Sonora is asking Mexico’s federal government to temporarily close the border to non-essential visits from the US.

“No more crossings from the United States into Mexico for visitors who do not have essential activities,” Sonora state Health Secretary Enrique Clausen said Wednesday.

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Coronavirus Cases Surge by Nearly 8,000 in South Africa
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/gauteng-health-facilities-have-reached-maximum-bed-capacity-department-20200702

On Thursday, authorities reported the country’s biggest single-day jump in coronavirus cases, adding 8,728 confirmed infections and taking the total count to 168,061.

The fastest rise in cases has been in Gauteng, the country’s richest and most populous province, where health officials now say may have to reimpose some restrictions as limited hospital facilities are overwhelmed. Steps taken to expand capacity are proving inadequate with a critical shortage of trained nurses and other staff a major problem.

“Our predictions tell us that we will be reaching 120 000 [cases] by the end of July. We will be getting closer to 250 000 to 300 000 by August, [and in] September which is expected to be the peak, we will be having more than that,” said Dr Bandile Masuku, the top health official in Gauteng.

The lockdown caused great hardship to tens of millions who depend on daily work to eat, and further damaged an already fragile economy. The poor have been disproportionately hit by the pandemic with social distancing and other measures difficult in over-crowded neighbourhoods.

-------------------------------

Authorities in northern Nigeria’s biggest city Kano have lifted a three-month lockdown imposed to contain a coronavirus outbreak linked to hundreds of deaths.

Kano was put under lockdown in April after medics and cemetery workers reported a spike in “unexplained” deaths.

A team of health experts from the central government found that up to 600 fatalities may have been linked to the virus, but local officials put the figure at under half that number.

The research was based on interviews with relatives of the deceased and medics but the figures were never added to the official tally as no tests were conducted.

... Kano’s relaxation of restrictions comes as the central government has rolled back virus measures around the country despite mounting infections.

Africa’s largest nation has reported 27,110 officially confirmed cases and 616 deaths, but has been struggling to provide adequate testing capacity.

--------------------------------

Despite imposing an early lockdown, containment may be unravelling in Bolivia amid poverty, an underprepared health system and a bitter political standoff
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/03/bolivia-coronavirus-pandemic

“The health system, public and private, collapsed,” said Flores. Many doctors in the regional capital of Trinidad fell ill. Other medical staff, terrified, locked themselves in at home or fled to remote farmhouses. As critically ill patients multiplied, the death toll began to climb.

Flores, who was initially hired by a local cattle ranchers’ association and has since returned as a volunteer, explained:

... There were no medical supplies, there were no ventilators, no oxygen.

Here in Trinidad most people have a relative, a friend, a neighbour who has died. We’re in a health disaster.


----------------------------------

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Iraq increased sevenfold in June, the International Rescue Committee said as it urged a redoubling of efforts to contain the spread of the disease in the country.

By 1 July there had been 53,708 infections detected in the country, up from 6,868 on 1 June. The ministry of health has announced that hospitals are almost at full capacity, and that schools and universities will be converted into isolation units to cope with the surging caseload.

... "We’re seeing more than a thousand new cases confirmed each day - sometimes more than 2,000 - and it is showing no signs of slowing down. "

----------------------------------

Low income Italians are significantly more likely to die of the coronavirus than higher-income groups, the country’s first significant study into the disease’s disproportionate social impact has shown.
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/coronavirus-mortality-in-italy-is-highest-among-poor--study-shows/45878580

Italy is one of the world’s worst-hit countries with almost 35,000 Covid-19 deaths since its outbreak emerged on Feb. 21 and it was the first European nation to report large-scale infections, Reuters reports.

In its annual report, national statistics bureau ISTAT studied mortality rates for each month from January 2019 to March 2020, when the outbreak took off, focusing on the education levels of those who died.

On average, Italians who leave school early with few qualifications have lower life-expectancy than those who study for longer, ISTAT said, and this “excess mortality” remained roughly constant through February this year.

In March however, the excess death ratio of the less educated in areas affected by the virus increased to 1.38 for men from 1.23 a year earlier, and jumped to 1.36 from 1.08 for women.

ISTAT statistician Linda Sabbadini said data on education levels was more readily available than other social indicators and was “an excellent proxy for income and class in Italy.”

“Disadvantaged socio-economic conditions expose people to greater risk of living in small or overcrowded housing, reducing the possibility of adopting social distancing measures,” the ISTAT report said.

Low-income groups were also more likely to be forced to work during lockdown, in sectors such as agriculture, public transport and assistance for the elderly, ISTAT said, concluding that Covid-19 had “accentuated pre-existing inequalities.”

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