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91
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by gerontocrat on November 24, 2020, 11:50:28 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  24,787,343 KM2 as at 23-Nov-2020

- Extent loss on this day 10k, 26 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -0.40 million km2, 0.68 million km2, 63% less than the 10 year average loss of -1.08 million km2.
- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

On average 11.9% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 81 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.86 million km2, 1.31 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
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In the last three days very high Arctic sea ice extent gains plus very high Antarctic sea ice extent losses resulted in very little change in Global sea ice extent.
i.e. the Global data hides large changes in the North & South

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N.B. Click an image once for full-size
92
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Last post by gerontocrat on November 24, 2020, 11:39:40 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,290,448 KM2 as at 23-Nov-2020

- Extent loss on this day 202k, 66 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 136k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3.57 million km2, 0.42 million km2, (10%) less than the 10 year average of 3.99 million km2.
- Extent is at position #33 in the satellite record of which 16 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,394 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,478 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,212 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,379 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  211 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 25.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 90 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 3.40 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
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N.B. Click on image  for full-size
93
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by gerontocrat on November 24, 2020, 11:21:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,496,895 KM2 as at 23-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 192k, 92 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 100k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5,942 k, which is 485 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 5,457 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  159 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  678 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  295 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  504 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  312 k LESS than the 2010's Average
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On average 55.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 108 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.91 million km2, 0.03 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
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So in which seas is extent going through the roof?
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge
94
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« Last post by NeilT on November 24, 2020, 10:07:01 AM »
Quote
Transport & Environment Calls Out PHEV Manufacturers For Higher Than Advertised Emissions

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/23/transport-environment-calls-out-phev-manufacturers-for-higher-than-advertised-emissions/

Quote
Julia Poliscanova, senior director for clean vehicles at T&E, really puts the boots to the current PHEV fad. “Plug-in hybrids are fake electric cars, built for lab tests and tax breaks, not real driving.

I would say fine avoidance too.  Not just tax breaks.

95
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Last post by NeilT on November 24, 2020, 10:00:46 AM »

Morningstar suggested that Tesla may very well be on track to deliver 950,000 electric cars in 2021 and about 1.6 million vehicles in 2022 — and 23 million by the end of the decade.

As usual behind the curve.

Fremont is already at 500k and Shanghai is targeting 550k.  So the analysts say Tesla will deliver 950k.  Berlin and Texas?  Not on the radar for people who's job is to look forward and make predictions.

Excellent.  However they do at least recognise that if Tesla can push out 1m vehicles in 2021, then the 20m target in 2030 is viable.

Energy? nada.  Also the fact that Tesla will be producing 20m cars with self driving software... Not a scooby.  Insurance?  Invisible.

There is a lot more than 1m vehicles in 2021 driving Tesla valuation.
96
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« Last post by paolo on November 24, 2020, 08:48:33 AM »
TM,
The confusion results from the fact that ASLR published only half of the figure, the half referring to the LIG simulation and forgetting the half relating to the RCP8.5 scenario. Below is the full figure

Click to enlarge
97
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Last post by CraigsIsland on November 24, 2020, 07:26:11 AM »
Amazing pictures and stories of those freezing rains and wind storms. I shudder at the thought of being in one. Beautiful, but so destructive!
98
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Last post by s1235smith on November 24, 2020, 05:36:35 AM »
Hello, on November 20th an ice storm, maybe the same one mentioned above hit Changchun city, Jilin Province, China (were I am) and much of northern china.  There were of branches of trees everywhere broken off with the weight of the ice and the wind.  This was followed by quite heavy snow.  It has been sunny for several days now.

I can tell you travelling to work on the bus (the light rail did not work) took hours.  I have no idea how the bus drivers managed to drive on the ice and snow covered roads that were lined with broken trees.
99
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Juan C. García on November 24, 2020, 05:16:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 23rd, 2020:
     9,496,895 km2, a century break increase of 192,436 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
100
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by oren on November 24, 2020, 04:42:35 AM »
I get the feeling herd immunity was not achieved in NYC, despite insistent claims. Daily deaths are still very low, but I won't be surprised when they start climbing.
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