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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by FishOutofWater on May 26, 2019, 08:12:31 PM »
Just ban the troll, Neven. He outed himself as an agenda driven troll with this:

Leftists are always duplicitous.

I've reviewed the weird looking potential vorticity forecast maps so that you all don't have to. There are going to be many little lows spinning around the Arctic shores while the high reigns over the pole like the king of the north. These small storms around the Arctic shores will import heat from the warmed land areas over the slushy regions offshore. It will increase apparent extent while the pressure gradient with the predominant high pressure will put the strongest winds in the quadrant towards the pole. Thus the main pack will continue to spin clockwise as the edges are stirred up.

This pattern bodes ill for the weeks ahead. Don't be fooled by the slow drop in extent that we're seeing now.
The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« Last post by johnm33 on May 26, 2019, 08:00:03 PM »
Those schools were run by many denominations in the US and Australia as in Canada, in some only 2 out of 3 children ever made it home. When these schools began to close the culture of abuse spread far and wide through the churches, by design or accident?
I think it's possible to run a civilisation guided by ethics rather than 'free market forces' the Inca gave it a fair go, iirc they sustained a denser population healthier than any society since in the same area, but too socialist for modern politicians.
The social insects are controlled by pheremones, for humans it's memes or narratives, the ancients composed complex narratives which contained an enormous range of cultural information, from star knowledge for navigation and farming, medical and other uses of all types of plants and all the incidentals of their culture all this in 'myths' that were the multi-layered memory mansions of the people. read for instance homers secret illiad Our narratives of history and religion are even more removed from the truth than the news, being designed to create the geography of our minds.
The melting is more advanced than previous years and with stronger forces moving the ice in the area, with predictions that it will continue, however there is still some older ice there, which is stronger and more difficult to melt, and it seems that this arm can only distort so much before the forces responsible for this cancel each other, so mid june is the most likely.
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« Last post by SteveMDFP on May 26, 2019, 07:13:14 PM »
A well-written article that discusses some of the concerns raised here about the massive number of StarLink satellites to be deployed:

Private Companies Are Building an Exoskeleton Around Earth
SpaceX and its competitors plan to envelop the planet with thousands of small objects in the next few years.

"But the thought of a commercial company’s satellites outnumbering all the rest, and in such a short period of time, is rather astonishing. If extraterrestrial beings were to swing past Earth and check the tags on the artificial objects shrouding the planet, they might think the place belonged to SpaceX."

I note that deploying satellites with long-lasting ion thrust drives opens the possibility of using them to pick up and dispose of the many dead satellites and debris in orbit.  Of course, a mechanism to pay Musk to be the orbital garbage collector would be needed...
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by ajouis on May 26, 2019, 07:12:20 PM »
I have been looking at the forum almost daily for about a year, but apart from the nsidc site, hadn t found any place which originally uploads the data.
This season looks to be on the bottom of the pack consistently, if the current trend continues, it will be tied with 2012, but we can still hope for clouds later in the season to push it back a few places.
The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« Last post by SteveMDFP on May 26, 2019, 07:01:49 PM »
A thought-provoking article on economic inequality, and the only thing that has, apparently, ever improved it--disaster:

The Only Thing, Historically, That's Curbed Inequality: Catastrophe
Plagues, revolutions, massive wars, collapsed states—these are what reliably reduce economic disparities

"Throughout history, only massive, violent shocks that upended the established order proved powerful enough to flatten disparities in income and wealth. They appeared in four different guises: mass-mobilization warfare, violent and transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic epidemics."

This perspective lends an interpretation for exactly why the entire world has been drifting towards populist/right-wing/neo-fascist governments all over the globe.  Modern civilization has done an excellent job suppressing most historical disasters of famine, plagues, revolution, and mass warfare--the usual means of reducing inequality.  With humanity deprived (so to speak) of these mechanisms for reversing inequality, the social-cultural-economic pressure cooker only builds more pressure over time, as the stressors of inequality build inexorably.

The implications are quite concerning.
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« Last post by vox_mundi on May 26, 2019, 06:51:28 PM »
SpaceX Satellites Spark Dutch UFO Frenzy

A Dutch website set up to record UFO sightings was flooded early Saturday with reports after a "train of stars" was spotted crossing the Netherlands' skies, sparking fears of an alien invasion.

... Dutch website was inundated with more than 150 sighting reports, with astonished spotters describing a "bizarre train of stars or lights moving across the skies at constant speed".

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by oren on May 26, 2019, 06:49:35 PM »
I haven t seen the university of Bremen/ asmr2 general area and extent pop up in a while.
I do think they are very useful as they have a thinner grid, does anyone have the most recent iteration and/or where I can find it?
Welcome ajouis. I use these bookmarks regularly:
Extent and area for the Arctic Basin itself, for 3 algorithms with different grid sizes.
This is the regional AMSR2 extent and area by Wipneus, based on the University of Hamburg algorithm with a 3.125 k grid. Wipneus also has more downloadable files and graphs on his site, at the address provided by Neven above.
Uni Bremen's sea ice web site, with several useful sub-pages, including the extent chart.
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by Jim Hunt on May 26, 2019, 06:46:11 PM »
I haven t seen the university of Bremen/ asmr2 general area and extent pop up in a while.
I do think they are very useful as they have a thinner grid, does anyone have the most recent iteration and/or where I can find it?

I think you may be confusing Bremen with Hamburg? Bremen AMSR2 extent is at:

Here's also is my closeup of Wipneus' data based on Hamburg Uni's 3.125 km gridded AMSR2 concentration:
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« Last post by Sterks on May 26, 2019, 06:32:56 PM »
The ECMWF forecast hasn't changed much. The only good thing about it, is that the huge high pressure area isn't partnering up with a big low over Siberia (in other words a Dipole), as that would cause huge movement. As it is, there will be some movement, (maybe enough to move the ice blockade past Utqiagvik to resolve our poll?), but lots of insolation. I though there would be big drops after the weekend, but maybe all of this energy will go into melting momentum and not be felt until later in the melting season.
The forecast is quite warm from May 28 to end of the month, but beyond that the big HP seems to become dull not pulling warmth. Its “subsidence” also subsides. And the sun if really open skies, will hit the whitest of the CAB. Not sure there will be an area cliff, at least this early... but should see steady drops in extent for sure
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