Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2018, 02:33:28 AM

Title: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2018, 02:33:28 AM
As my co-Emperor pointed out, it is past time to start a 2018 ENSO thread, so here goes.

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -3.1:

20171206,20180104,-3.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2018, 02:37:28 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -3.7:

20171207,20180105,-3.7
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 07, 2018, 08:10:47 PM
As we apparently have switched the thread to a 2018 analogue, I repost my post from the thread "2017 ENSO". But before that it might be informative to tell you that the ONI number for OND is in at -0,9. This number is lower than during the 2016/2017 La Niña. I also add a pic of the latest sub-surface temperatures showing the warm pool in the WPAC (Courtesy: NOAA).

Well, La Niña should start to weaken considerably in a coupke of weeks or so. The warm pool in the West Pacific is according to Australian BOM a possible precursor to an end of the current event.

From ENSO wrap-up by January 3 at BOM:

"However, a build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific may be a precursor to the end of this event in the coming months."

The rest of 2018 should most likely be a neutral year or maybe with a weak El Niño depending on how quick La Niña weakens and vanish. If 2018 ends up being neutral I'm quite sure we'll see a moderate-strong El Niño emerging in 2019. And yes, that should mean that either 2019 or 2020 will have a good chance to end up being the warmest year on record.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif&hash=7aa1ec151fc8bc4500c22e602b6723ee)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2018, 02:30:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -4.4:

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2018, 03:54:55 AM
As we have started a new year it is probably appropriate to briefly show the first image of three month moving average Ocean Nino Index, ONI, values from 1997 thru OND of 2017.  Per this index an official La Nina event is declared by NOAA after five consecutive three month moving average ONI values have been at, or more negative than, -0.5.  As both SON and OND were below the threshold value of -0.5, for the 2017-18 ENSO season to be officially declared a La Nina event will require that the coming ONI values for NDJ, DJF and JFM all be at, or below, -0.5.  Per the second CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast this is likely (but not certain) to occur.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2018, 05:01:16 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino index data; & the first two images issued today by the BoM for the week ending January 7, 2018, showing the Nino 3.4 index and the IOD index, respectively; & the last two images issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac, Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively: the ENSO remains in a La Nina condition; but shows signs of weakening over the coming few months:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 22NOV2017     20.6-1.2     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.5-0.1
 29NOV2017     20.8-1.3     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.7     28.5 0.0
 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2018, 05:05:11 PM
The four attached plots issued today by the BoM thru week ending January 7 2018, show the weekly index values for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 regions respectively.  All data shows that we remain in a weak La Nina condition but that this condition is likely to move towards neutral conditions in a few months:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2018, 02:39:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on January 09, 2018, 08:02:28 AM
This might be better suited elsewhere but I've not been follwing this forum for a while.

Response of Pacific-sector Antarctic ice shelves to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-017-0033-0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-017-0033-0)
Quote
Satellite observations over the past two decades have revealed increasing loss of grounded ice in West Antarctica, associated with floating ice shelves that have been thinning. Thinning reduces an ice shelf’s ability to restrain grounded-ice discharge, yet our understanding of the climate processes that drive mass changes is limited. Here, we use ice-shelf height data from four satellite altimeter missions (1994–2017) to show a direct link between ice-shelf height variability in the Antarctic Pacific sector and changes in regional atmospheric circulation driven by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. This link is strongest from the Dotson to Ross ice shelves and weaker elsewhere. During intense El Niño years, height increase by accumulation exceeds the height decrease by basal melting, but net ice-shelf mass declines as basal ice loss exceeds ice gain by lower-density snow. Our results demonstrate a substantial response of Amundsen Sea ice shelves to global and regional climate variability, with rates of change in height and mass on interannual timescales that can be comparable to the longer-term trend, and with mass changes from surface accumulation offsetting a significant fraction of the changes in basal melting. This implies that ice-shelf height and mass variability will increase as interannual atmospheric variability increases in a warming climate.

Also quoting the last paragraph from the paper.
Quote
We have shown how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation affects
the height and mass of ice shelves in the AS sector of the WAIS.
The response in height is the combined effect of two opposing
processes, which are both intensified during El Niño events: sur-
face snow accumulation and ocean-driven basal melting. The
result is an overall height increase, but net mass loss, since the ice
lost from the base has higher density than the fresh snow being
gained at the surface. Ice-shelf response to ENSO variability is
strongest between the Dotson and Ross ice shelves, with a weak
response in Pine Island Bay, the Bellingshausen Sea and west of
the Ross Sea. Given expected increases in total precipitation 49
and frequency of extreme ENSO events 50 as Earth’s atmosphere
warms, our results imply that interannual variability of ice-shelf
height and mass will also increase, stressing the need to quantify
surface accumulation relative to basal melting to project future
changes in Antarctic ice shelves.

Adding a couple of images as well.
Fig1. Relationship between ice-shelf height anomalies and ENSO index.
Fig3. Average oceanic, atmospheric and ice-shelf conditions during two
distinct ENSO phases (El Niño, 1997–1998; and La Niña, 1999–2000).
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on January 09, 2018, 05:10:40 PM
The nino plumes provided by ECMWF hasn't been overly accurate this year.
Here's an animation of Nino3.4 for Jan-Dec. First frame was spot on. :)

Edit; cropped the animation a bit.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2018, 02:44:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2018, 01:49:23 PM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on January 11, 2018, 02:22:04 PM
Nice animation Sleepy.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2018, 02:29:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on January 12, 2018, 12:13:17 PM
Nice animation Sleepy.
Thanks oren. They were a lot better in early 2015, adding April 2015 and April 2017.
Also adding the latest from January 2018. FWIW, after forecasts beeing poor for so long, ECMWF plumes are persistently indicating warmer conditions.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2018, 02:57:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2018, 03:30:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 15, 2018, 04:04:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2018, 02:21:40 AM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Jan 10 2018 and the four attached plots (the first two by NOAA showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, & the second two by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 & the IOD, respectively), the ENSO condition remains in a La Nina state:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2018, 02:24:25 AM
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM showing the week Nino indices thru the week ending Jan 14 2018, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively.  These plots show that the ENSO remains in a La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2018, 02:27:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -1.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2018, 02:29:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 17, 2018, 06:41:08 PM
FINALLY, Jisao came in with the missing two values for November and December! Both November and December were positive (+0,15 and +0,50)  which means that the last four years have been purely positive. However, July, August and October were barely positive at +0,10, +0,09 and +0,05 respectively.

Given the current SSTs it seems likely that January 2018 will continue the string of positive PDO-numbers from JISAO.....
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2018, 02:30:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on January 18, 2018, 02:55:56 AM
The JISAO PDO index was updated for Nov. at .15 and Dec. at .5   This completes four years with positive numbers.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 19, 2018, 02:37:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 20, 2018, 02:59:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 21, 2018, 04:00:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2018, 02:27:05 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2018, 05:57:29 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Jan 17 2018 and the four attached plots (the first two by NOAA showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, & the second two by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 & the IOD, respectively), the ENSO condition remains in a La Nina state:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2018, 05:58:53 PM
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM showing the week Nino indices thru the week ending Jan 21 2018, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively.  These plots show that the ENSO remains in a La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 23, 2018, 02:42:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 24, 2018, 02:38:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has zoomed up to +5.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2018, 03:39:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 26, 2018, 02:28:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 26, 2018, 10:03:33 PM
Are we going to see a decent WWB at the beginning of February? The ECMWF forecast is not nearly as bullish as the GFS but is still a decent one. Whether this would be enough to support a major WWB is another question.
In any case, Joint Typhoon Warning Center has two invest areas in the Western Pacific. However, the one north of the equator is not likely to develop given its close proximity to the equator. If it had been further north, it might had been supportive for a setup of twin cyclones. Another thing to enact is that we still are in La Niña mode.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 27, 2018, 02:26:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 28, 2018, 02:27:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 29, 2018, 02:32:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2018, 03:12:04 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +9.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2018, 04:28:36 PM
I missed posting this information yesterday, but per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Jan 24 2018; the first two NOAA images for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued yesterday by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively; the ENSO condition remains firmly in the weak La Nina range:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2018, 04:30:49 PM
Per the four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Jan 28, 2018, issued yesterday by the BoM, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, the ENSO remains firmly in a weak La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 31, 2018, 03:20:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +9.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2018, 02:27:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +9.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2018, 06:19:41 PM
If the POAMA (issued by the BoM) forecast for the Nino 3.4 index starting January 28 2018 is accurate, we may well be experiencing weak La Nina conditions until around August 2018:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 01, 2018, 07:12:48 PM
ASLR, I'm not so sure that the forecast is correct in showing weak La Niña conditions. The warm pool in the Western Pacific is gathering strength and with the upcoming WWB it should be able to finish off the current weak La Niña. I think we'll see cool neutral conditions during this summer.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif&hash=7aa1ec151fc8bc4500c22e602b6723ee)

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 02, 2018, 02:31:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +8.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 03, 2018, 02:27:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2018, 03:27:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2018, 02:35:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2018, 05:05:54 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino index values thru the week centered on Jan 31 2018; the first two images of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM images of the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively, thru the week ending Feb 4 2018; the ENSO condition firmly remains in a weak La Nina condition.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2018, 05:08:32 PM
The four attached images show BoM plots of the weekly Nino index values thru the week ending Feb 4 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots all indicate that we firmly remain in a weak La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 05, 2018, 05:22:03 PM
Climate Prediction Center - National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml) - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov predicts a weak El Nina continuing into the August-September-October period.  Seasonal Nino3.4 E1 shown:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FCFSv2%2FimagesInd1%2Fnino34Sea.gif&hash=65febb85b8d6a3d2a8f8da09267bf55c)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 06, 2018, 02:29:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 06, 2018, 07:55:38 PM
More U.S. drought in a second-year La Niña?
Author: Nat Johnson
February 1, 2018
Quote
Currently, we are fully immersed in the second winter of a “double-dip” La Niña.   Although it will take some time before we can see how this event stacked up with past events, you might have noticed that it has been quite dry over much of the U.S. this winter, with drought expanding across several regions, particularly in the south.  Being the big ENSO fans that you are, you might have asked yourself, are these conditions typical in the second winter of a double-dip La Niña?  And are there any differences in how the atmosphere responds to La Niña in the second winter relative to the first?  Well if either of those questions ever crossed your mind, then you’re in luck!

A recent study (1) led by Dr. Yuko Okumura of the University of Texas at Austin addressed how the impacts of La Niña may change from the first winter to the second for double-dip La Niñas like this one. Spoiler alert: Dr. Okumura and colleagues found evidence that U.S. drought and the North Pacific atmospheric circulation anomalies strengthen in the second winter of a double-dip La Niña.  With that out of the way, let’s take a closer look at what they found.
...
...they found that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 region tend to be about 25-30% weaker in the second La Niña winter relative to the first.  Surprisingly, however, they also found that the atmospheric circulation departures from average over the North Pacific and North America region tend to be stronger in the second winter.
...
The anomalous high pressure over the North Pacific, a characteristic feature of La Niña, is, on average, stronger in the second winter.  These atmospheric circulation anomalies have big implications for the impacts over North America.  Most notably, the occurrence of drought conditions tends to be worse over regions like California and the U.S. Southeast, which also are regions that have been dry so far this winter. ...
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/more-us-drought-second-year-la-niña
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: FishOutofWater on February 07, 2018, 01:53:22 AM
Last winter was not a La Niña event by Australian rules. Note the study you cite said the second winter in a 2 year event is weaker. This winter La Niña is stronger, and meets both Bom and NWS criteria for La Niña. California had a very wet winter last year, which is not normal for a La Niña and is having a drought this winter, which is normal.

I think the Australian rules are better than the American rules in this case.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2018, 02:39:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 08, 2018, 02:35:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2018, 02:28:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 10, 2018, 12:59:19 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on February 10, 2018, 01:44:21 PM
ECMWF Nino plumes for February.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on February 10, 2018, 07:25:51 PM
From the monthly NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion on 8th Feb
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Quote
Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2018 [Fig. 6]. The forecast consensus also favors a transition during the spring with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions thereafter. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season) (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 11, 2018, 04:49:48 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2018, 02:43:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: FishOutofWater on February 12, 2018, 03:32:39 AM
The ECMWF  forecast is consistent with how the cool tongue and warm pools have been evolving. The CFSv2 has failed badly in the equatorial Atlantic for years and I don't trust it in the Pacific. It doesn't handle equatorial upwelling accurately. In the Atlantic it can't handle the Amazon freshwater plume worth a damn. It fails with the flow of Atlantic heat across the equator. It badly underpredicted the record high heat content in the tropical Atlantic last September.

The CFSv2 also persistently makes the water immediately around Antarctica too warm. It can't handle the ACC and the complex upwelling, downwelling & currents in the southern ocean. I've actually tried to forecast ocean heat content to predict hurricane seasons months ahead of time, but the CFSv2 has been little help.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 12, 2018, 03:57:08 PM
'But it [CFSv2] is so convenient!' I say  ::)
I appreciate your critique, though, Fish.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2018, 05:18:24 PM
While the attached plots show some limited weakening (i.e. some movement towards neutral conditions) of the current weak La Nina conditions, the following NOAA data thru the week centered on Feb 7 2018, shows that we clearly remain in a weak La Nina state.  The first two NOAA Eq Pac plots show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; while the last two BoM plot show the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices respectively through the week ending Feb 11 2018:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2018, 05:22:27 PM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending Feb 11 2018, were all issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they show some fluctuation towards neutral conditions, but they also show that we remain in a weak La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on February 12, 2018, 06:59:39 PM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending Feb 11 2018, were all issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they show some fluctuation towards neutral conditions, but they also show that we remain in a weak La Nina condition:

A long lived, extreme MJO is contributing to a long-lived, strong westerly wind burst at the moment, which is forecast to persist for a while:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.albany.edu%2Fstudent%2Fventrice%2Freal_time%2FtimeLon%2Fu.anom.30.5S-5N.gif&hash=4e02dc49a12de3548e6a8589ce630eed)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fprecip%2FCWlink%2FMJO%2Fcurrent_anom_850wind.gif&hash=4d44f159498dc3b2aeaab219fcec1ea2)

This could be a lethal blow to the current Nina as a decently large EKW propagates across the Pacific:
(https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/jsdisplay/dep_lon_EQ_20180130_t_mean_20180130_t_anom_500_0_500_0_hf_2018021209.png)
(https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/jsdisplay/dep_lon_EQ_20180204_t_mean_20180204_t_anom_500_0_500_0_hf_2018021209.png)
(https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/jsdisplay/dep_lon_EQ_20180209_t_mean_20180209_t_anom_500_0_500_0_hf_2018021209.png)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2018, 02:31:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2018, 06:49:21 PM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending Feb 11 2018, were all issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they show some fluctuation towards neutral conditions, but they also show that we remain in a weak La Nina condition:

A long lived, extreme MJO is contributing to a long-lived, strong westerly wind burst at the moment, which is forecast to persist for a while:

The attached ECMM forecast for MJO shows the prospects for a long-lived WWB declining rapidly in the coming days.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2018, 02:46:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on February 14, 2018, 06:28:44 AM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending Feb 11 2018, were all issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they show some fluctuation towards neutral conditions, but they also show that we remain in a weak La Nina condition:

A long lived, extreme MJO is contributing to a long-lived, strong westerly wind burst at the moment, which is forecast to persist for a while:

The attached ECMM forecast for MJO shows the prospects for a long-lived WWB declining rapidly in the coming days.

The EC has been too aggressive with its forecast for the MJO phase to advance (and in amplitude). This is particularly noticeable in phases 4-5-6, where it typically struggles the most.

Regardless, the synoptic pattern in the SHem favors the continuation of westerly anomalies and outright westerly winds (at times) through the EKW generation zone. A stacked rex-block setup all the way to New Zealand is helping to generate a large area of cyclonic turning just south of the equator, which has been favorable for TCs and tropical lows/waves develop and circulate in this region and cause it to persist.

Both the GFS/GEFS and EC/EPS forecast that this condition will persist for at least the next week. This should further strengthen the already significant EKW and thermocline depression that is gathering steam in the WPac.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 14, 2018, 07:58:39 AM
Csnavywx: I tend to agree with ASLR here. The GFS model has known troubles around phase 8 and tend to overestimate the MJO in that region. With that said, even if the MJO is declinng it should be enough to initiate a new downvelling Kelvin wave, we shall see.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on February 14, 2018, 08:24:57 AM
Discussion from Dr. Klaus Wolter on recent MEI behavior and analogs going further.  Points towards Niño.   [url][https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion/url]

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Alexander555 on February 14, 2018, 10:15:25 AM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending Feb 11 2018, were all issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they show some fluctuation towards neutral conditions, but they also show that we remain in a weak La Nina condition:

A long lived, extreme MJO is contributing to a long-lived, strong westerly wind burst at the moment, which is forecast to persist for a while:

Just to see if i'm right , and if you would have time to correct me. The MJO is like a moving wheater front that moves from the east of Africa over the north of Australia until somewhere west of the Pasific. And than back to the east of Africa passing the north  of lets say Indonesia. And that in 30 to 60 days.

The attached ECMM forecast for MJO shows the prospects for a long-lived WWB declining rapidly in the coming days.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on February 14, 2018, 05:23:54 PM
Csnavywx: I tend to agree with ASLR here. The GFS model has known troubles around phase 8 and tend to overestimate the MJO in that region. With that said, even if the MJO is declinng it should be enough to initiate a new downvelling Kelvin wave, we shall see.

That's fine, but I'm not asserting this solely out of anecdotal experience. I'll provide the justification for my position:

First from Ichikawa and Inatsu 2017:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUvcVyoU8AAjKe9.jpg:large)

Also from Kim, et al. 2014:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1)

(https://journals.ametsoc.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/ams/journals/content/clim/2014/15200442-27.14/jcli-d-13-00480.1/20140708/images/medium/jcli-d-13-00480.1-f9.gif)

The Kim et. al cases were in strong MJO phases, where there's a clear bias towards early weakening in all phases in the EC. The GFS is too amped, as you point out above, but when the event is in 4/5/6, it usually does a superior job of forecasting. This case was no different and would fit perfectly into both papers' datasets. Best to use a blend of the GFS and EC in P7 (or just use the JMA at 10-day leads), and lean heavily towards the GFS when the event is in P4/5/6.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2018, 05:36:41 PM
I don't doubt that we may transition to neutral conditions sometime after March 2018, but I doubt that we will transition before the end of March.  Attached is the ECMM MJO forecast issued today, showing that the recent strong MJO is collapsing rapidly.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on February 14, 2018, 06:01:00 PM
Oh yeah, it'll take at  least 5-6 weeks for that EKW to make it across and have an effect. We'll just have to see how long that WWB lasts. Right now, both the EC and GFS have it through at least D7.

By the way, that's one hell of a SPCZ:

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2018, 02:41:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on February 17, 2018, 08:33:02 AM
Big down-welling Kelvin wave continues to strengthen near and west of the dateline.  This will be interesting to watch as is slowly treks east this spring.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 17, 2018, 08:14:22 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 18, 2018, 03:29:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -1.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2018, 02:31:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2018, 06:33:03 PM
The first image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom was issued today by NOAA and indicates weak La Nina conditions, as do the last two images issued by the BoM which show the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices, respectively thru the week ending Feb 18 2018:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2018, 06:35:23 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM with weekly data thru the week ending Feb 18, 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates that we remain in a weak La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2018, 02:36:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -3.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2018, 11:39:55 PM


The following weekly NOAA Nino data thru the week centered on February 14 2018 (note yesterday was a US holiday), indicates that we remain in a weak La Nina condition:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 21, 2018, 02:33:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2018, 12:14:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2018, 05:50:45 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2018, 02:30:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -4.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2018, 03:40:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -4.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2018, 02:32:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2018, 06:45:34 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Feb 21, 2018; the first two plots issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Feb 25, 2018 for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively, and the last two images issued today by NOAA showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, for the Eq. Pac.; conditions remain in a weak La Nina condition, but I would guess that there is a 50% chance that ENSO conditions could change to a neutral state by sometime in April:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2018, 06:48:34 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Feb 25 2018, and show the Nino 1,2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Together they indicate that the current La Nina condition may likely move toward neutral ENSO conditions as soon as April 2018:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Bruce Steele on February 26, 2018, 10:24:43 PM
The JISAO PDO index has come out + .7 for Jan.  I don't know the significance of four years of monthly consecutive PDO numbers but it is the first time in the JISAO  98 year record that it has done so.
 The kelp ecosystem in Southern and Northern Calif. are extremely  stressed. The  Dungeness crab fishery in Oregon is dealing with Domoic acid closures. Alaskan cod fishery is in trouble .
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2018, 02:39:13 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on February 27, 2018, 05:21:14 AM
The JISAO PDO index has come out + .7 for Jan.  I don't know the significance of four years of monthly consecutive PDO numbers but it is the first time in the JISAO  98 year record that it has done so.
 The kelp ecosystem in Southern and Northern Calif. are extremely  stressed. The  Dungeness crab fishery in Oregon is dealing with Domoic acid closures. Alaskan cod fishery is in trouble .

The PDO index is detrended to account for AGW so a prolonged positive event now is much more of a burden on marine life than a similar event 50-100 years ago. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on February 27, 2018, 09:58:16 AM
ENSO Frequency Asymmetry and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Observations and 19 CMIP5 Models.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-017-7133-z (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-017-7133-z)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7133-z (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7133-z)
Quote
Abstract.
Using observational data and the pre-industrial simulations of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the El Ni˜ no (EN) and La Ni˜ na (LN) events in positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases are examined. In the observational data, with EN (LN) events the positive (negative) SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific is much stronger in positive (negative) PDO phases than in negative (positive) phases. Meanwhile, the models cannot reasonably reproduce this difference. Besides, the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO is explored. Results show that, in the observational data, EN is 300% more (58% less) frequent than LN in positive (negative) PDO phases, which is significant at the 99% confidence level using the Monte Carlo test. Most of the CMIP5 models exhibit results that are consistent with the observational data.

Quote
Conclusions and discussion
This study examines the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the different phases of the PDO. Results from observational data show that more EN (LN) events tend to occur in positive (negative) PDO phases. Specifically, EN is 300% more (58% less) frequent than LN in positive (negative) PDO phases. Monte Carlo testing is used to check the significance of the above observational evidence, and the results show that the conclusion, i.e., that EN is more (less) frequent than LN in positive (negative) PDO phases, is statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. Besides the observational evidence, the pre-industrial simulations of 19 CMIP5 models are analyzed using the same method as with the observed data. We find that most of the CMIP5 models exhibitthesameresultsasobservedinbothpositiveandnegative PDO phases, indicating that ENSO frequency asymmetryis indeed modulated by the PDO phases. The modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO may be due to the background SST and circulation patterns in different PDO phases. In positive PDO phases there are notable anomalous westerlies over the central equatorial Pacific, which are associated with the warming SST east of the anomalous low-level wind. Thus, this decadal-scale westerly wind anomaly associated with positive PDO phases may encourage more EN events, rather than LN events, to occur. However, in previous studies (e.g., Newman et al., 2003) it has been argued that the PDO is an ENSO-forced signal. Of course, two possibilities exist—that the PDO influences ENSO or vice versa. In this paper, using observational data and CMIP5 coupled model results, we only seek to reveal the phenomenon that there tend to be more EN events in positive PDO phases, and in doing so we find that this relationship between the PDO and ENSO is statistically significant based on the Monte Carlo test. Besides analysis of observational data and CMIP5 multimodel preindustrial control simulations, sensitivity experiments using numerical models are necessary to fully explore the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the different PDO phases. Such work has recently begun using a coupled climate model with assimilated SST in the ocean component (Dong et al., 2016). Indeed, it has already been found that this method can reproduce the decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon reasonably well (Lin et al., 2016). Thus, further study using model experiments to investigate the associated mechanisms is warranted.
Adding Fig1.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2018, 02:52:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on February 28, 2018, 08:19:31 AM
A look at SST anomalies over the last 28 days. This is from Dr. Maue's new site.  This helps to smooth out synoptic weather events.  La Niña obviously still in place but on its last legs.  PDO still positive maybe a hair lower than January? 

Also PMM still very positive.  January came in at the 98.7 percentile.  Looks like another high PMM for February.  Winter ++PMM is correlated with developing Niños in the spring and summer months.

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2018, 02:45:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2018, 02:47:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2018, 02:46:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2018, 02:31:13 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on March 04, 2018, 09:26:53 AM
PMM index came in at 2nd highest February in 70 years of records.  2018 was between 2015 and 1968.  PMM index and been found to be a precursor to El Niño events. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Avalonian on March 04, 2018, 11:34:17 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21537-0
I don't understand this area well enough, but I think this is saying that there is a strong, instantaneous positive feedback relationship between PMM and ENSO, rather than one leading the other. Does this suggest another El Nino is imminent?
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 05, 2018, 02:27:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -3.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on March 05, 2018, 10:11:13 PM
Down-welling kelvin wave continues to grow by the date-line. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2018, 03:33:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2018, 02:38:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2018, 10:31:29 AM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Feb 28 2018; the first two BoM plots thru the week ending March 4 2018 showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, and the last two NOAA plots showing the Pac Eq Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; the ENSO condition continues to move towards neutral conditions, but remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2018, 10:36:20 AM
The attached weekly Nino indices were issued by the BoM thru the week ending March 4 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  This information confirms that ENSO conditions are slowly moving toward neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2018, 10:39:04 AM
The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast was issued by the BoM starting Feb 25 2018, and indicates that weak La Nina conditions could remain for several months before transitioning to neutral conditions:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2018, 02:28:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2018, 02:45:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +0.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2018, 04:04:08 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +1.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2018, 02:29:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on March 11, 2018, 09:49:25 AM
ECMWF Nino plumes for March.
The February forecasts were still bullish (on the warmer side) for for the Nino3+4 regions.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2018, 03:41:31 PM
The linked reference discusses the impacts of extreme El Ninos on the NH stratosphere in winter:

Xin Zhou, Jianping Li, Fei Xie, Quanliang Chen, Ruiqiang Ding, Wenxia Zhang & Yang Li (10 March 2018), "Does extreme El Niño have a different effect on the stratosphere in boreal winter than its moderate counterpart?", JGR Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2017JD028064 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD028064/abstract

Abstract: "A robust impact of El Niño on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratosphere has been demonstrated by previous studies, although whether this applies to extreme El Niño is uncertain. The time evolution of the response of the NH stratospheric vortex to extreme El Niño, compared with that to moderate Eastern Pacific El Niño, is addressed by means of composite analysis using the NCEPDOE reanalysis dataset from 1980 to 2016. Lead–lag analysis indicates that the El Niño signal actually leads the stratospheric response by ~2 months. Considering the time lag, the signal of December–January–February El Niño in the NH stratospheric vortex should mature in the February–March–April season (late winter/early spring). The patterns of circulation and temperature for late winter/early spring during extreme and moderate El Niño events are significant, exhibiting similar structure. The results are confirmed with the WACCM4 model, which is forced with observed SSTs of extreme and moderate El Niño in winter (December–January–February) to analyze the day-to-day propagation of their signals. Note that the magnitudes of the stratospheric responses are much larger in the case of extreme El Niño, as stronger upward propagation of planetary waves leads to a weaker northern polar vortex than during moderate El Niño events."
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Buddy on March 11, 2018, 07:36:21 PM
The ENSO chart below was from AbruptSLR above.  I have highlighted the SHORT TERM "counter trends" in RED.  The LONG TERM TREND in BLUE.

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 12, 2018, 02:29:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 12, 2018, 03:20:44 PM
The ENSO chart below was from AbruptSLR above.  I have highlighted the SHORT TERM "counter trends" in RED.  The LONG TERM TREND in BLUE.

For those who are uncertain, sustained ENSO values more positive than +8 suggest La Nina conditions; and sustain values between +8 and -8 suggest Neutral conditions; while sustain values below -8 suggest El Nino condition.  Furthermore, as an extreme El Nino occurred in the 2015-16 season; one should expect the 2-year long trend of the Blue line to be moving toward neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2018, 02:34:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 13, 2018, 08:32:12 AM
Is this real or a glitch? Must be one of the most bizarre pics I've ever seen!

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2018, 04:37:55 PM
Is this real or a glitch? Must be one of the most bizarre pics I've ever seen!

LVM,

The attached PMEL-TAO measured/observed Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles (or March 12, 2018), indicated that most likely the NOAA model projections are indeed a glitch (i.e. fake news).  But I suspect it will take more WWBs to keep the oceanic EKW active enough to create El Nino conditions by Fall of 2018.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 13, 2018, 05:20:39 PM
Thank you ASLR! That was what I thought! Forgot to check out the TAO/PMEL pic. Let's see what the next update shows. Oh yeah, we need more WWBs to get an El Niño by fall. Personally, I'm more inclined to think that the possibility for an El Niño shoud be higher next year. We are still in the wake of a vaning La Niña.

The latest forecast calls for wekly positive wind anomalies in the Western Pacific around 150oE. Might keep the Kelvin wave alive for a while. But we certainly need more than that.

//LMV
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2018, 02:54:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2018, 02:28:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2018, 02:35:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on March 16, 2018, 07:44:50 AM
All ENSO events are of course different but it's still the largest "natural" climate variation on Earth. That said, the rest should probably go into the "anecdotal stories" thread, but since those who have followed these ENSO threads for years might be aware of, there is one event preceding the 2015-2016 El Nino that is at least somewhat similar, the 1982-1983 event. That event has brought me small flashbacks and oddities for five years now and that also why I never believed we would have no more than a weak La nina to follow the latest El Nino.

Adding another oddity, the Arctic SIE via NSIDC in March 1985, two years after the El Nino. Right were we are now, timewise, after the 2015-2016 event.
The Arctic is of course a totally different place today than in 1985, 16% of the ice pack was very old ice then, but by March 2017, this ice category only constituted 0.9% of the ice pack. The extent of the oldest ice declined from 2.54 million km2 in March 1985 to 0.13 million km2 in March 2017. Adding a sea ice age comparison for week 11 (as now) from last year.

If the future follows suit to the 1982-1983 event, we might see a return of El Nino in 2019 and not in 2018. We have not yet seen a Wadhams like ~1M extent during 2016 or 2017, much thanks to low pressure dominated summers. Ocean heat content is way higher today. Looking at JISAO PDO numbers, still not updated for February but will probably be positive for the 50:th consecutive month since January 2014...

The final graph is also from last year. Continuing with the above analog to 1982-1983, when we get the next strong La Nina, it's good bye to any September extent still up there in September.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 16, 2018, 08:51:16 AM
I would say it's a 50-50 chance that we'll see a new El Niño this year. In any case, I think it's almost certain that if not this year, we'll see an El Niño next year.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on March 16, 2018, 10:47:40 AM
Mid March forecast probabilities from IRI will be interesting.
In March 2014 the mid month probabilities for NDJ were 3%, 39% and 58% and none of the models listed at IRI were below 0° from ASO.

Early March forecast from IRI 2014 showed probabilities for OND at 7%, 41% and 52%.
Early March forecast from IRI 2018 shows probabilities for OND at 20%, 40% and 40%.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2018, 06:44:28 PM
If the future follows suit to the 1982-1983 event, we might see a return of El Nino in 2019 and not in 2018.

The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting March 11, 2018 concurs with your assessment about 2018, and I would not be surprised if 2019 has a moderate El Nino.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2018, 02:30:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on March 17, 2018, 06:52:08 AM
If the future follows suit to the 1982-1983 event, we might see a return of El Nino in 2019 and not in 2018.

The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting March 11, 2018 concurs with your assessment about 2018, and I would not be surprised if 2019 has a moderate El Nino.
Taking the comparison a bit further, the moderate El Nino in 86-87 was followed by a strong El Nino in 87-88.

Warm water volume in the west is rising and depth averaged temps are already on par with 2011.

JISAO PDO was updated for February with 0.37, despite a slight drop from January we can now skip the "probably". It's positive for the 50:th consecutive month since January 2014. That, is not analogue to anything.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2018, 02:34:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2018, 02:45:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +8.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2018, 04:27:10 PM

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices through the week centered on March 14 2018, and the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution (both issued today), and the last two BoM plots showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, thru the week ending March 18 2018; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1


Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2018, 04:30:01 PM
Today, the BoM issued the four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending March 18, 2018, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  Collectively, these plots indicate that the ENSO remains in a week La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2018, 04:32:21 PM
The attached TAO subsurface Temp, & Temp Anom, profiles for the Eq Pac were issued today, and indicate that while the oceanic EKW continues to move eastward, its temperature gradient is not intensifying; which suggests that we will not reach even weak El Nino conditions by the end of 2018.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 19, 2018, 05:38:17 PM
2019 will do nicely for next enso to be called! ( late 2019)  :)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on March 19, 2018, 05:42:57 PM
If, it would more likely be called the 2019-2020 El Nino and if it would follow suit to the 1982 El Nino it would then be followed by the 2020-2021 El Nino.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2018, 02:29:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2018, 02:31:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2018, 02:28:13 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: FishOutofWater on March 22, 2018, 04:33:26 AM
The Kelvin wave continues to move west but it is losing some of its intensity.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2018, 03:05:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2018, 02:32:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +10.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2018, 03:30:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +11.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on March 25, 2018, 04:27:13 PM
Mid March forecast probabilities from IRI will be interesting.
In March 2014 the mid month probabilities for NDJ were 3%, 39% and 58% and none of the models listed at IRI were below 0° from ASO.

Early March forecast from IRI 2014 showed probabilities for OND at 7%, 41% and 52%.
Early March forecast from IRI 2018 shows probabilities for OND at 20%, 40% and 40%.

IRI mid March probabilities for NDJ 2018: 18%, 34% and 48%.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table (https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2018, 03:29:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2018, 04:59:57 PM
While NOAA has not updated its weekly Nino indices for last week; nevertheless, the first two NOAA plots for the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two images issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD thru the week ending March 25 2018; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2018, 05:02:07 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending March 25 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  This data indicates that the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2018, 04:51:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2018, 03:28:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +9.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2018, 03:49:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2018, 03:39:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2018, 03:33:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +10.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 31, 2018, 07:03:18 PM
It might be of some interest to notice that Super Typhoon Jelawat is the third earliest tropical cyclone to achieve status as a "Super Typhoon" behind Higos in 2015 and Mitag in 2002.

As some of you are aware of, an El Niño developed in both 2002 and 2015.

Other years that have seen Super Typhoons before the end of April is from what I can find:

2004, 2003, 1997 and 1989.

2004 and 1997 both saw an El Niño. 2003 started with a decaying El Niño but ended neutral. In 1989 a strong La Niña was in charge but ended up in cool neutral year.

All in all it seems that the odds for an El Niño just increased....

Happy Easter! :)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2018, 12:29:30 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +10.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2018, 03:30:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant at +10.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2018, 05:33:38 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on March 28, 2018; the first two images issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively; and the last two images issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, the 2017-18 season is now officially a La Nina event, and weak La Nina conditions continued thru the end of March 2018:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2018, 05:36:56 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM showing values thru the week ending April 1, 2018.  This data indicates that while the current La Nina may be weakening, we are still currently in a weak La Nina condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2018, 03:27:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on April 03, 2018, 04:17:18 AM
The big thing to watch continues to be the evolution of the kelvin wave as it moves east and surfaces this spring and summer.  Will this lead to neutral, warm neutral or an Niño?
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2018, 06:20:36 PM
The big thing to watch continues to be the evolution of the kelvin wave as it moves east and surfaces this spring and summer.  Will this lead to neutral, warm neutral or an Niño?

Here is the associated TAO measurements of the Pac Eq ocean Temps and Temp Anoms, with depth, for April 3 2018; which indicates that the oceanic EKW is rapidly degrading.  Thus I believe that the 2018-19 ENSO season will likely be neutral.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2018, 03:28:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +10.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2018, 03:28:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on April 05, 2018, 05:12:49 AM
3rd highest March PMM value in the 70 year dataset.  It has been observed as an often precursor to El Niño events due to weakening of trades. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2018, 04:20:33 PM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2018, 04:00:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2018, 04:45:15 PM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2018, 03:33:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +13.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2018, 04:54:23 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices values, & the first two NOAA plots (Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively) and the last two BoM plots (Nino 3.4 & IOD indices, respectively); there is a better than even chance that we are seeing the beginning of a transition from La Nina to Neutral ENSO conditions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2018, 04:57:32 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 8 2018 & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data supports the idea that there is a better than even chance that currently the ENSO is transitioning from La Nina to Neutral conditions:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: mitch on April 09, 2018, 06:50:46 PM
There's a big warm kelvin wave coming across the Pacific that has reached 115W (only 4000 km more to the coast).  When that starts surfacing there will be some major changes in eastern Pacific temperatures.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2018, 03:26:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +12.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2018, 03:27:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on April 11, 2018, 07:45:26 AM
Latest ECMWF plumes pointing to at least warm neutral if not El Niño by this summer/fall.  Latest NMME suite also leaning towards the same by the fall.  Of course we're still in the most unpredictable time of the year for ENSO. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2018, 03:30:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2018, 03:32:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on April 13, 2018, 07:15:44 AM
New CPC/IRI ENSO probabilities released.  Odds continue to increase for El Niño by summer/fall.  The probabilities are up from the March and February releases.  Kelvin wave also continues to slowly approach the surface.  The next few will be interesting as surface waters/anoms start to warm.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on April 13, 2018, 08:07:40 AM
Latest ECMWF plumes pointing to at least warm neutral if not El Niño by this summer/fall.
ECMWF has been running hot for a long time now. The same in March.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on April 13, 2018, 08:14:47 AM
Adding all areas from ECMWF for April as well.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 13, 2018, 08:17:56 AM
From the graphs Sleepy presents, I get the impression that if an El Niño is going to emerge later this year it might be a "Modoki El Niño".
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on April 13, 2018, 08:23:52 AM
Or a dud if they keep running hot.

Edit; adding the animation with last years plumes that I posted in reply #9 and attaching a follow up with Jan-Mar this year:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2228.0;attach=81211;image)

Edit 2; also adding the Nino3 region separately for Jan-Mar below.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 13, 2018, 10:17:59 PM
After 50 consecutive months with positive PDO values,  the string was broken during March! With a PDO value at -0.05 the four year long sequence came to an end. Let's see how the PDO evolves the next few months!
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on April 13, 2018, 11:21:03 PM
Eyeballing it on SST maps, looks like we’ll be back to positive for April.  This daily PDO chart is a pretty good proxy for the official numbers.  You can clearly see the PDO was way down in March compared to other months.  You’ll also notice the recovery in the last 2 weeks.

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ (https://www.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2018, 04:09:45 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +13.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2018, 07:27:04 PM
From the graphs Sleepy presents, I get the impression that if an El Niño is going to emerge later this year it might be a "Modoki El Niño".

As we are currently in the middle of the ENSO Spring barrier, it is difficult to say what will happen by the Fall of 2018, but the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast issued April 14 2018, indicates neutral ENSO conditions then:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2018, 05:42:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2018, 03:26:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +12.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2018, 09:57:35 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino index data thru the week centered on April 11 2018, and the four attached plots, ENSO conditions appear to have transitioned from La Nina conditions into neutral ENSO condtions:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2018, 10:00:25 PM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 15 2018, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively they indicate that the ENSO has transitioned into a neutral condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2018, 03:32:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2018, 04:47:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +11.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2018, 11:59:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2018, 07:37:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Alexander555 on April 20, 2018, 06:28:45 PM
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2018-enso-update-what-lurks-beneath
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2018, 03:26:31 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2018, 03:32:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +11.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on April 23, 2018, 07:51:17 AM
The entire upcoming ENSO cycle all comes down to what happens once this kelvin wave surfaces over the next month.  I wonder if we'll see any sustained WWBs once surface temps warm...
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2018, 04:49:32 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices values through the week centered on April 18 2018; the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM plots for the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively; ENSO conditions are currently neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2018, 04:52:10 PM
The four attached BoM weekly Nino plots thru the week ending April 22 2018, show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and collectively they indicate that the current ENSO condition is neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2018, 04:58:25 PM
The entire upcoming ENSO cycle all comes down to what happens once this kelvin wave surfaces over the next month.  I wonder if we'll see any sustained WWBs once surface temps warm...

The attached measured TAO Eq Pac subsurface temp & temp anom profiles are less bullish for possible El Nino conditions later this year than are the profiles from NOAA's computer model:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2018, 03:35:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +9.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 24, 2018, 04:59:56 PM
“The #MJO has weakened rapidly before reaching Australia, meaning we have seen the end to the big northern rains this #WetSeason. Find out more in our Weekly #Tropical Climate Note http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/ “
         https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/988664599519158272
Image below.

Quote
Australian tropics transition to dry season
Dry conditions are expected for most of northern Australia this week. South-easterly winds prevail over the Northern Territory with showers mostly confined to coastal areas and offshore. The exceptional April heat persists, with near record temperatures likely for western parts of the Top End and Cape York this week. Read more about the exceptional heat in April.

Australia's tropical cyclone season is nearing its official end (30 April). Over the 2017–18 season, nine tropical cyclones were recorded in the Australian region, close to the long-term average of 11. Five of these nine tropical cyclones crossed the coast. Severe tropical cyclone Marcus hit Darwin at category 2 strength, then later strengthened to category 5 over the Indian Ocean, making it the strongest cyclone for the season. Although not counted in Australian cyclone statistics, tropical cyclone Cempaka occurred just north of the Australian region in late November.
See the Bureau's Severe Weather Events for details about each tropical cyclone.

Madden–Julian Oscillation weakens
As predicted, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakened rapidly last week as it progressed eastward across the Indian Ocean and is now unlikely to be influencing tropical weather. International models predict the MJO will remain weak over the coming week, hence there is now little chance of another burst of the Australian monsoon this wet season (October–April). When and where the MJO will strengthen again is less clear, with significant differences between model forecasts.
See the Bureau's current MJO monitoring for more information.

Tropical Pacific to remain ENSO-neutral
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. All international climate models indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to slowly warm, but remain at neutral levels through the Australian winter. Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently neutral. Temperatures at and below the surface in the central Pacific Ocean are within the neutral range, and the trade winds are close to average for this time of year.
See the Bureau's current ENSO Wrap-Up for more information.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2018, 03:29:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +8.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2018, 10:32:46 PM
The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast with a start date of April 22 2018, indicates little or no chance of an El Nino event this year:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2018, 03:27:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 27, 2018, 03:28:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2018, 03:27:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +6.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2018, 03:27:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 03:36:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 05:47:46 PM
Per the following weekly Nino data, the first two images (of the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued today by NOAA, and the last two plots issued today by the BoM (of the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively); ENSO conditions are currently neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 05:51:11 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots show values through the week ending April 29, 2018, & were issued today by the BoM.  These plots show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and collectively they indicate that were currently have neutral ENSO conditions:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2018, 03:27:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2018, 03:32:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2018, 03:33:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 03, 2018, 09:22:02 PM
Record breaking PMM index for April!
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 04, 2018, 03:37:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 05, 2018, 03:32:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2018, 04:49:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2018, 10:12:02 PM
“How wild is it that we're now living through La Niña years that might turn out hotter than the monster 97/98 El Niño? ”
https://twitter.com/past_is_future/status/992955691097907200

“2018 is on track to be the fourth warmest year on record after 2016, 2017, & 2015, despite a modest La Niña event leading to a relatively cooler start to the year @hausfath
https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-warm-start-to-2018-despite-la-nina-conditions

https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/992710244055777280
Image below.

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2018, 03:27:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -2.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2018, 07:01:46 PM
Per: 1) the following weekly NOAA Nino index values thru the week centered on May 2, 2018; 2) the first two NOAA plots issued today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and 3) the last two BoM plots for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively for the week ending May 6 2018: the current ENSO conditions remain neutral.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2018, 07:04:05 PM
The four attached BoM plots show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices thru the week ending May 6 2018.  This information indicates that currently ENSO conditions remain neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2018, 03:36:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2018, 05:41:46 PM
The attached TAO Eq Pac subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles, indicate that the oceanic equatorial Kelvin wave is dissipating:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2018, 03:34:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2018, 03:29:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -1.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2018, 06:31:26 PM
The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting from May 6 2018; projects a mild & brief cooling trend, together will sustained neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2018, 03:28:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2018, 02:50:03 PM
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 May 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Quote
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.

During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near-to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2018, 03:30:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2018, 03:29:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on May 13, 2018, 07:16:57 AM
ECMWF plumes for May.
Nino34 still ran hot for April, the others areas in the middle.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2018, 03:28:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2018, 06:31:04 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week ending May 9 2018, and the four attached images, ENSO conditions remain neutral.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2018, 06:33:24 PM
The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending May 13 2018 were issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  This data indicates that ENSO conditions remain neutral.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 15, 2018, 03:35:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2018, 03:29:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2018, 04:37:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 17, 2018, 08:18:56 AM
Eyeballing it I would say the kelvin wave has strengthen some since AbruptSLR's post a week ago.  +3°C contour showing up with a fuller +2°C contour.     
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2018, 04:30:26 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 19, 2018, 03:26:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 20, 2018, 03:30:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2018, 03:33:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2018, 10:28:14 PM
Per the following weekly Nino indices values per NOAA thru the week centered on May 16, 2018 and the four attached images (the first two by NOAA & the last two by the BoM), ENSO conditions remain neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2018, 10:31:02 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending on May 20th, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of this data indicates that ENSO conditions are currently neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 22, 2018, 03:27:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2018, 03:28:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 24, 2018, 06:28:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -1.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 25, 2018, 03:36:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -1.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sebastian Jones on May 25, 2018, 04:29:05 AM
NOAA predicts a better than even chance of El Nino developing in 2019. Story and links to the studies:
https://grist.org/article/a-building-el-nino-in-2018-signals-more-extreme-weather-on-tap-for-2019/ (https://grist.org/article/a-building-el-nino-in-2018-signals-more-extreme-weather-on-tap-for-2019/)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 26, 2018, 03:29:15 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 27, 2018, 03:49:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 27, 2018, 10:21:19 PM
Kelvin wave is still looking impressive.  Wait and see how the atmosphere responds once this surfaces. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 28, 2018, 04:05:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 29, 2018, 03:26:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on May 29, 2018, 08:39:06 AM
Kelvin wave is still looking impressive.  Wait and see how the atmosphere responds once this surfaces.
Adding these animations, ending late April, from 2014 and 2015, as a comparison.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Buddy on May 29, 2018, 08:16:37 PM
Per the most recent ENSO chart posted above .... you can see where "resistance" is (the horizontal blue line) ..... and where the "higher lows" have been progressing over the last 2.5 years.

At some point ..... likely 6 - 16 months from now or so ..... I would expect that the horizontal resistance line to "give way".

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on May 30, 2018, 03:15:54 AM
A word of caution: "technical chart analysis" is based on mass psychology of traders. There is no mass psychology affecting the SOI values, so this analysis is unsuitable.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 30, 2018, 03:27:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 31, 2018, 03:27:26 AM
A word of caution: "technical chart analysis" is based on mass psychology of traders. There is no mass psychology affecting the SOI values, so this analysis is unsuitable.

Any scientifically verifiable method of technical chart analysis that consistently gave useful forecasts would result in the market reacting in such a way as to invalidate any such forecast.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 31, 2018, 03:41:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 01, 2018, 03:34:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Buddy on June 01, 2018, 01:53:11 PM
Quote
A word of caution: "technical chart analysis" is based on mass psychology of traders. There is no mass psychology affecting the SOI values, so this analysis is unsuitable.

I guess I need to REPEAT a couple things that I have stated before ..... plus add one other piece of information that may be obvious to some, but not obvious to others:

1)  I am a "FUNDAMENTAL GUY".  As I have stated in the past on at least a couple of occasions  ..... the FUNDAMENTALS CAUSE THE TECHNICALS (ie the chart) .... NOT the other way around.  In fact .... a chart, whether you are talking about a chart of "widget production", ice in the Arctic, the chart of the number of Tesla cars produced, or a chart of ENSO ... is a chart of what has ACTUALLY HAPPENED.

Trend analysis has likely been around as long as there has been trade in the world ..... for more than a thousand years.  So while it is a part of what people refer to as "technical analysis" of stocks and bonds..... it is used by people focused on FUNDAMENTALS every day ..... whether that be in science applications, financial applications, economic applications, etc.

2) Technical analysis of stocks/bonds includes a myriad of other methods that "technical analysts" use to analyze a given stock/bond.  I am NOT one of "those people".  My background is in fundamental analysis AND OBSERVATION (ie observation of management, culture, people, historical trends, costs/revenues, etc).   While "trend analysis" is ONE PIECE of "technical analysis" ...... it is used by folks like me (fundamentally focused).... ALL THE TIME.

3)  There is always a REASON for the changes in a chart of what I would call "physical things" ..... especially physical things in science (as opposed to the chart of stocks/bonds which is simply a chart of buyers and sellers and the price they bought and sold.... plus some other "technical" aspects of a stock/bond chart).

There is no "underlying psychology" involved in a graph of ENSO, Arctic ice melt, temperatures, etc.  In the chart of a stock/bond ..... there IS UNDERLYING PSYCHOLOGY.  In  the chart of monthly Tesla production, there is also likely "underlying psychology":  (1) are people "waiting" until EV's really catch on before buying, (2) do people TRUST EV's, (3) are people waiting until price drops more, etc.  So even in the "physical world" in business ..... there are underlying effects of psychology ...... which is NOT present in the chart of "physical science" things such as ENSO, ice, temperatures, etc.  BUT .... there are DEFINITELY UNDERLYING PHYSICAL THINGS that effect the chart.  And the chart, for people who are "observers" ..... can serve to prod questions ..... and questions can sometimes lead to answers (the better the questions... usually the better the answers).

For instance ...... for the chart of ENSO, there are actual PHYSICAL REASONS why the chart looks like it does.  There are reasons why, over the past couple of years ..... that it has bumped up against "resistance", and physical reasons why the "intermediate lows" have become HIGHER AND HIGHER.  As a FUNDAMENTAL GUY ..... I try to think (1) what ARE the reasons for that, (2) what is LIKELY FUTURE DIRECTION?

Trend analysis PROMPTS FUNDAMENTAL PEOPLE LIKE ME TO ASK QUESTIONS ..... and to try to "peer into the future".  And they can  be very useful.

So whether you are studying ENSO, the rise of sea levels, the rise of temperatures, etc ...... a simple chart can be a very good VISUAL TOOL to prod you in asking questions (of yourself or others) about the UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS.

In short....chart analysis of a PHYSICAL SCIENCE thing like ENSO is very different from a chart analysis of a stock, because there is no "psychology" present.  But it can be a VERY USEFUL tool when used properly.





 

 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on June 01, 2018, 03:13:31 PM
SOI calculations differ Buddy. And the SOI can dive down and then jump up again over several months and years. This is the formula that Long Paddock uses:
(https://image.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/i5Vxk6wYKFc980pVBdheXL2qVbs=/x/dev/1/images/troupsoiformula.gif)
They use 1887-1989 as base period (std dev diff) and 10 as a multiplier.
BoM (which ASLR regularly posts values from) also use 10, but 1933-1992 as base period which is probably better, I believe some of the olders values are a bit shaky. Others use a different base period and/or a different multiplier. Then you also have the equatorial SOI.

To be able to say anything about where ENSO is going, one must also look at SST, SLP, wind and OLR indices. One can't really say anything just looking at the SOI. You need the team to play ball.
Add subsurface temps and equatorial kelvin waves, etc.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Buddy on June 01, 2018, 05:37:29 PM
Sleepy....

Quote
To be able to say anything about where ENSO is going, one must also look at SST, SLP, wind and OLR indices. One can't really say anything just looking at the SOI. You need the team to play ball.Add subsurface temps and equatorial kelvin waves, etc.

Note.... I didn't say otherwise.  In fact.... I ABSOLUTELY AGREE that it is a "team game".  EVERYTHING in the physical world of climate change has an effect on everything else (whether it is a miniscule effect or a large effect).  I think you may want to re-read what I wrote....especially THIS:

Quote
For instance ...... for the chart of ENSO, there are actual PHYSICAL REASONS why the chart looks like it does.  There are reasons why, over the past couple of years ..... that it has bumped up against "resistance", and physical reasons why the "intermediate lows" have become HIGHER AND HIGHER.  As a FUNDAMENTAL GUY ..... I try to think (1) what ARE the reasons for that, (2) what is LIKELY FUTURE DIRECTION?

Trend analysis PROMPTS FUNDAMENTAL PEOPLE LIKE ME TO ASK QUESTIONS ..... and to try to "peer into the future".  And they can  be very useful.

So whether you are studying ENSO, the rise of sea levels, the rise of temperatures, etc ...... a simple chart can be a very good VISUAL TOOL to prod you in asking questions (of yourself or others) about the UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS.

ANYTHING in global warming/climate change is a "team game."  I think .... or at least I would HOPE .... that everyone here understands that.  That is the crux of why feedback effects take place.

What I WAS saying....is this:  Take a look at the chart.  What are the things that did effect THE ACTUAL OUTCOME ..... and is there anything that we can look at to see where the chart is going looking forward?  Are there any FUNDAMENTAL things that caused the chart to look like it is, and what do we expect those things to do in the future?

The chart looks like it does FOR A REASON OR MULTIPLE REASONS.  I think that is pretty much a GIVEN.  What a chart does.... is prods us to ASK WHY, and then look for those reasons.   And especially over LONGER TERMS.  Again.... we can talk about ENSO or talk about any number of other charts of PHSYCIAL THINGS (temperature, ENSO, ice melt, etc, etc, etc).

If you are thinking that I am saying that I KNOW what the future is of that chart without question ..... then you would be sorely mistaken.  Again.... I look at FUNDAMENTALS, and I look at a chart of a fundamental (like sea ice or ESO or anything else) .... and I use it to prod myself (or others).  And the LONGER THE PERIOD OF THE TREND CHART, THE BETTER (because there are always short term fluctuations that are random and much harder to explain..... just ask Ted Cruz).

A "trend chart" is a tool ..... nothing more, nothing less.  People are free to ignore trends if they want.  There are FUNDAMENTAL REASONS behind how the chart looks, whether we know the reasons or not.  There are always REASONS.  I choose to look at a chart in conjunction with the fundamentals as an additional tool.  NOT as a replacement.

 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 02, 2018, 03:28:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 03, 2018, 03:38:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 04, 2018, 03:46:15 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 04, 2018, 06:37:30 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino values, the first two Eq Pac images issued today and the last two BoM images showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively; the Eq Pac has warmed a little bit in the past few weeks but remains in a neutral ENSO condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 04, 2018, 06:39:52 PM
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices thru week ending June 3 2018, and this data indicates that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 04, 2018, 10:33:03 PM
May 2018 PMM index comes in at 2nd highest on record, behind May 1968. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 05, 2018, 03:32:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +1.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2018, 03:28:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 06, 2018, 08:36:23 PM
Here we go.  First notable WWB as the kelvin wave is nearing the surface.  SSTs will likely look much different in the next 10+ days.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 07, 2018, 03:29:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 08, 2018, 03:29:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 09, 2018, 03:27:31 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 10, 2018, 04:26:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on June 10, 2018, 04:41:29 PM
ECMWF Nino plumes for June.
Checking back on the May plumes, at least reality tracks the forecasts better now.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on June 10, 2018, 05:12:03 PM
A combination of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event and El Niño-Modoki event expected after a long separation
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/jamstec_news/20180606/ (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/jamstec_news/20180606/)
Quote
A La Niña condition prevailed over the tropical Pacific during the first half of 2018. It started decaying gradually from boreal spring and has almost disappeared now as tropical Pacific returns to a normal state. In the coming season, however, abnormal climate events are expected over many parts of the world owing to the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki.

We have been conducting experimental seasonal predictions every month using the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction system on the Earth Simulator and providing a real-time outlook of seasonal to interannual climate variations on our website. In the latest predictions, the SINTEX-F system clearly predicts co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and an El Niño Modoki event in the coming summer of 2018. This causes a colder sea surface temperature around the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent, so that Indonesia, and Australia will be drier than normal. It may also cause crop failure and bush fire there. We observed co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki in 1994, when Japan was anomalously hot.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 11, 2018, 03:37:30 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 11, 2018, 05:14:52 PM
The following data and the first two attached images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, with the first image showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and the second image showing the SSTA Evolution.  The last two images show BoM weekly indices data thru the week ending June 10 2018 for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively.  All of this information indicates the ENSO conditions remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 11, 2018, 05:16:57 PM
The following plots show BoM weekly Nino indices data thru the week ending June 10 2018, and respectively show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices.  All of this information indicates the ENSO conditions remain neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on June 11, 2018, 10:35:43 PM
A rare true WWB (with actual winds turning westerly, not just anomalies) is ongoing over the eastern part of the basin. A more basin-wide weakening of the trades is forecast.

This event will reinforce the ongoing OEKW event, which could help speed along the development of a possible Nino.

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 12, 2018, 03:33:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 12, 2018, 06:13:56 AM
It's not OISST or ERSST data but Levi's CDAS plot shows Niño 3.4 data finally climbing back above 0°C baseline.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 13, 2018, 03:28:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly down to +0.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 14, 2018, 03:29:31 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 15, 2018, 05:51:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Buddy on June 15, 2018, 01:06:36 PM
Not surprised....

It's back: El Niño expected later this year, forecasters say

Quote
“Conditions are now favorable for the emergence of El Niño sometime in the next six months,” Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster with the prediction center, told Bloomberg News. “The watch hinges on that word, ‘favorable.’ We’re just above the threshold that we want to see to issue a watch.”
http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-back-el-ni%c3%b1o-expected-later-this-year-forecasters-say/ar-AAyFm39?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on June 15, 2018, 01:29:03 PM
Not surprised....

<snip>

Quote
“Conditions are now favorable for the emergence of El Niño sometime in the next six months,” Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster with the prediction center, told Bloomberg News. “The watch hinges on that word, ‘favorable.’ We’re just above the threshold that we want to see to issue a watch.”
http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/its-back-el-ni%c3%b1o-expected-later-this-year-forecasters-say/ar-AAyFm39?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Fixed that one for you, Buddy! ;)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 15, 2018, 08:34:40 PM
Niño 3.4 has gone through rapid warming the last 7 days thanks to the relaxed trades/WWB.   3-day SST anomaly average shows the +anomalies between 170W - 120W. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 16, 2018, 03:36:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on June 16, 2018, 06:58:16 PM
https://www.axios.com/el-nino-watch-issued-as-new-event-nears-0ae8c12a-460f-4ce5-930f-1bce02878e72.html

El Niño watch issued as signs point to a return of the climate cycle

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Niño watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for El Niño conditions to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean within the next six months.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 17, 2018, 04:03:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 18, 2018, 03:42:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 19, 2018, 03:45:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly down to -2.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 20, 2018, 03:27:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 21, 2018, 03:30:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 22, 2018, 03:43:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -2.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 23, 2018, 03:39:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 24, 2018, 03:28:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2018, 03:27:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2018, 05:23:25 PM
The following NOAA weekly Nino data together with the first two NOAA images of Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM plots of the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices thru the week ending June 24 2018; the ENSO conditions have warmed but remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2018, 05:26:22 PM
The four attached weekly Nino indices plots thru the week ending June 24 2018, were issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they indicated that while ENSO conditions have warmed recently, they remain neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2018, 05:28:15 PM
For what it is worth, the attached TAO Eq Pac subsurface temp and temp anom profiles indicate that the recent oceanic equatorial kelvin wave is beginning to dissipate:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 26, 2018, 03:37:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 27, 2018, 04:55:18 AM
Positive OLR anomalies have finally shifted west of the dateline.   Normal OLR anomalies from 170W-120W (Niño 3.4). 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on June 27, 2018, 07:26:13 AM
For what it is worth, the attached TAO Eq Pac subsurface temp and temp anom profiles indicate that the recent oceanic equatorial kelvin wave is beginning to dissipate:
I'm not following ENSO as closely as in the past, which is a bad base to stand on with an El Nino watch issued. To me this year still feels like 2014'ish and real coupling will fail.
Adding OLR by BoM.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 28, 2018, 03:28:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly down to -6.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 29, 2018, 04:41:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 30, 2018, 03:30:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 01, 2018, 03:31:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 02, 2018, 03:34:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 02, 2018, 04:30:12 PM
The following NOAA weekly Nino indices data thru the week centered on June 20, 2018, together with the first two NOAA images of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two BoM images showing the weekly indices for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, thru the week ending July 1 2018; all indicate that the current ENSO condition remains neutral.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5

Furthermore, this data suggests to me that the current weak Oceanic Equatorial Kelvin Wave has peaked, and is beginning to dissipate.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 02, 2018, 04:32:49 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing the weekly Nino data thru the week ending July 1, 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of this data indicates the ENSO condition are currently on the warm side of neutral.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 03, 2018, 03:27:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 04, 2018, 03:27:12 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.1:

20180603,20180702,-6.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 05, 2018, 07:28:24 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.7:

20180604,20180703,-6.7
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on July 05, 2018, 08:01:38 PM
Starting to get more consistently negative SOI numbers, which is consistent with the atmosphere moving towards a Nino state.

Another easterly trade wind burst (similar to May) will initiate in the next few days and likely stall progression for a while, however.

The ECMWF has a strong MJO signal emerging over the Maritime Continent in a week, which could lead to propagation over the West Pacific late this month, setting up the possibility of strong westerly anomalies over the EKW generation area.

It's important to note that we are farther ahead than we were in 2006 and 2009 for those Nino episodes. The CFS and EC forecast for a Nino of around 1.5C (moderate to borderline strong) in the late autumn look to be on track at the moment.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 06, 2018, 03:32:42 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly down to -8.2:

20180605,20180704,-8.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on July 06, 2018, 04:05:11 AM
Starting to get more consistently negative SOI numbers, which is consistent with the atmosphere moving towards a Nino state.
Indeed the 90-day moving average SOI has turned negative a few days ago.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on July 06, 2018, 09:12:27 PM
Starting to get more consistently negative SOI numbers, which is consistent with the atmosphere moving towards a Nino state.
Indeed the 90-day moving average SOI has turned negative a few days ago.

it is going to start getting hot in here.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 07, 2018, 03:27:45 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -8.9:

20180606,20180705,-8.9
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 08, 2018, 03:30:29 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved  up to -8.0:

20180607,20180706,-8.0
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 09, 2018, 03:41:43 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.8:

20180608,20180707,-7.8
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 09, 2018, 04:28:50 PM
For some reason the BoM did not post plots of the weekly Nino data thru last week so here I am only posting weekly Eq Pac data/plots from NOAA thru the week centered on July 4 2018.  The first plot shows the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, the second the SSTA Evolution and the third TAO's Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles.  All of this data indicates that we remain on the warm side of neutral ENSO conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 10, 2018, 03:27:34 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved  up to -8.5:

20180609,20180708,-8.5
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 10, 2018, 09:43:37 PM
Strong MJO passage across the Pacific basin the next 2 weeks.  This may set up the El Niño standing wave (in terms of convection).  MJOs help Kelvin waves develop in the winter/spring and also kick El Niño in higher gear in summer. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 11, 2018, 03:33:30 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -8.4:

20180610,20180709,-8.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on July 11, 2018, 09:32:54 AM
ECMWF Nino plumes for July.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Csnavywx on July 11, 2018, 03:19:43 PM
Another upward adjustment by the EC. Starting to push towards the strong category, like the CFSv2. They're very close on strength now, after some jostling around during the "Spring Barrier".
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on July 11, 2018, 04:07:55 PM
Yeah, or playing catch up with reality since April. At least the Nino3 & 4 runs are more collected now in July. But after last years performance, up until March 2018, I'm hesitant to look much further than August.

Last year:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2228.0;attach=81211;image)

Jan-Mar:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2228.0;attach=99488;image)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 12, 2018, 05:28:42 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -6.0:

20180611,20180710,-6.0
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on July 12, 2018, 09:49:04 PM
Climate Prediction Center July ENSO update is out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 July 2018
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 14, 2018, 03:36:19 AM
Per the following BoM data, the 30-day moving average SOI continued to move upward:

20180612,20180711,-5.2
20180613,20180712,-4.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 14, 2018, 10:34:10 PM
GFS 200 VP anomalies.  MJO wave moves over the Niño 3.4 this week.  Divergence aloft from this wave may help jump start Niño standing wave. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 15, 2018, 03:49:31 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.0:

20180614,20180713,-5.0
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 16, 2018, 03:50:36 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.1:


20180615,20180714,-4.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 16, 2018, 05:34:29 PM
As the BoM has not posted updated Nino data, here I only provide the following NOAA data and plots.  The two plots show data from the Eq Pac, issued today, with the first showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom (which held steady last week) and the second showing the SSTA Evolution (which shows some cooling from last week), while the following weekly Nino 3.4 data centered on July 11, 2018 indicates a value of 0.2C.  Thus the ENSO continues to fluctuate in a neutral condition.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 17, 2018, 04:37:53 PM
Per the following data issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.4:

20180616,20180715,-3.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 18, 2018, 04:17:35 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.6:

20180617,20180716,-2.6
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 19, 2018, 06:34:23 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.5:

20180618,20180717,-2.5
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 20, 2018, 03:25:44 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly up to -1.0:

20180619,20180718,-1.0
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 21, 2018, 08:31:09 PM
 ;D  Here’s an MJO plot you never want to see!  But, an educational opportunity.

“Either the MJO plotting mechanism is broke or The Day After Tomorrow is gonna happen in about 2 weeks. What say you @MJVentrice”
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1020400985422942209
Image below.

Michael Ventrice:  Wow. Looks like some bad data in there.

[ECMWF is normal....]

<<@hurricanetrack  can you please explain for the many of us who don't know what we are looking at? Thanks!>>

“The Madden Julian Oscillation plot gone wild - it's a glitch but looks like it would be off-the-charts amplified over the next two weeks which would mean really wild things with the weather.”
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1020411615949344769
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 24, 2018, 07:35:16 AM
I wonder if this (area I highlighted with the box) is the start of the standing wave on the 200mb VP anomalies or just weather.  Noticeable detachment from the MJO wave as it continues to weaken & moves east on the Hovmoller.  We'll see....
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 25, 2018, 08:22:58 AM
SSTs starting to recover as the MJO wave passes.  The increased trades ahead of the MJO briefly dropped SSTs but the resulting divergence aloft may help kick the Niño into gear.  You've got crack a few eggs to make an omelet....
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 26, 2018, 05:30:11 AM

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to 0.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 27, 2018, 03:25:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 28, 2018, 03:30:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2018, 03:27:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2018, 04:48:19 AM
The prospect of the expanding tropics moving cyclones into new areas is not a very pleasant thought:

Title: "Time bomb': Tropics expansion nudges cyclone formation into new areas"

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/time-bomb-tropics-expansion-nudges-cyclone-formation-into-new-areas-20180723-p4zt26.html
Extract: "Stephen Turton, a cyclone researcher and adjunct professor at Central Queensland University, said the researchers had used "nifty" analysis that stripped out climate variability, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, to identify the poleward shift in cyclones.

The expansion of the tropics, as much as 111 kilometres a decade, had the potential to push the dry sub-tropics much further towards the poles if greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise.

"It could be Brisbane to Sydney, Rome to London, by the end of the century," Professor Turton said."
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2018, 10:39:05 PM
Per the following week NOAA Nino data and the attached plots (with the first two issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, & the last two issued by the BoM showing Nino 3.4 and IOD data thru the week ending July 29 2018, respectively); indicate that the ENSO condition remains in a slight warm neutral condition:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2018, 10:41:46 PM
The following weekly Nino plots show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 data thru the week ending July 29 2018, respectively.  These plots indicate that the ENSO condition remains on the warm side of neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 31, 2018, 03:26:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 31, 2018, 11:47:38 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued July 31 2018.  The second image shows the ECMM - MJO projection issued July 31 2018.  Taken together them images indicate that neither the ocean nor the atmosphere are going to promote an El Nino event anytime soon:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 01, 2018, 03:30:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 02, 2018, 03:27:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on August 02, 2018, 05:25:48 AM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued July 31 2018.  The second image shows the ECMM - MJO projection issued July 31 2018.  Taken together them images indicate that neither the ocean nor the atmosphere are going to promote an El Nino event anytime soon:

The RMM phase diagrams are unfiltered.  Low frequency standing wave may be interfering in those plots. 

Dr. Ventrice using that same data from yesterday: “The strongest Low-Frequency tropical forcing near the equator is now seen over the Eastern Pacific and no longer Africa (still strong, however). Note this is a shift in the tropics, in which we are seeing coupling to evolving El Nino conditions over the tropical East Pacific.”
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1024254111968055296?s=21 (https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1024254111968055296?s=21)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 02, 2018, 05:42:55 PM
Scientist have developed a new index for monitoring ENSO behavior, the El Niño Precipitation Index (ENPI):

Michael Goss et al. (July 31 2018), "Can ENSO-like convection force an ENSO-like extratropical response on subseasonal timescales?", Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0771.1

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0771.1

Abstract: "A daily El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is developed based on precipitation rate, and is used to investigate subseasonal time-scale extratropical circulation anomalies associated with ENSO-like convective heating. The index, referred to as the El Niño Precipitation Index (ENPI), is anomalously positive when there is El Niño-like convection. Conversely, the ENPI is anomalously negative when there is La Niña-like convection. It is found that when precipitation becomes El Niño-like (La Niña-like) on subseasonal time scales, the 300-hPa geopotential height field over the North Pacific and western North America becomes El Niño-like (La Niña-like) within 5-10 days. The composites show a small association with the MJO. These results are supported by previous modeling studies, which show that the response over the North Pacific and western North America to an equatorial Pacific heating anomaly occurs within about one week. This suggests that the mean seasonal extratropical response to El Niño (La Niña) may in effect simply be the average of the subseasonal response to subseasonally varying El Niño-like (La Niña-like) convective heating. Implications for subseasonal to seasonal forecasting are discussed."
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 02, 2018, 05:51:07 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued July 31 2018.  The second image shows the ECMM - MJO projection issued July 31 2018.  Taken together them images indicate that neither the ocean nor the atmosphere are going to promote an El Nino event anytime soon:

The RMM phase diagrams are unfiltered.  Low frequency standing wave may be interfering in those plots. 

Dr. Ventrice using that same data from yesterday: “The strongest Low-Frequency tropical forcing near the equator is now seen over the Eastern Pacific and no longer Africa (still strong, however). Note this is a shift in the tropics, in which we are seeing coupling to evolving El Nino conditions over the tropical East Pacific.”
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1024254111968055296?s=21 (https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1024254111968055296?s=21)
The ENSO is a chaotic phenomena and thus is difficult to project.  In this regards the first attached image of the POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting July 29 2018, falls more in-line with my line of reasoning:

Edit: The second attached image of Cowan's daily Nino 3.4 index issued August 2 2018, indicates that the POAMA forecast is not too far off:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 03, 2018, 03:42:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 04, 2018, 03:27:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on August 06, 2018, 12:34:23 AM
Relaxed trades over the main ENSO region forecasted.   *important* these are anomalies not totals/absolute.  Totals never go westerly but the relaxing will allow for some warming. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 06, 2018, 03:28:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 06, 2018, 05:44:26 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino values thru the week centered on August 1 2018, and the four attached images (the last two show the BoM's weekly Nino 3.4 and IOD thru the week ending August 5, 2018, respectively), the ENSO condition currently remains in a neutral state:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 06, 2018, 05:46:58 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending August 5 2018.  This information indicates that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 07, 2018, 03:30:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on August 08, 2018, 05:10:03 AM
SOI forecast from the GFS(FWIW) continues the sizable negative daily contributions that started around August 5th.  Divergence aloft also continues for the main ENSO region as seen on VP anomalies. I would assume Hurricane John may be impacting this some.   
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 09, 2018, 03:10:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 10, 2018, 03:25:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on August 10, 2018, 10:12:26 PM
Noticeable tongue of cold with warm horse shoe continues to establish in the North Pacific.  PDO index recently dropped to 0 to slightly negative.  I wonder if it’s about to make another run at positive. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 11, 2018, 03:30:15 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.5:

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 12, 2018, 04:00:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on August 12, 2018, 07:08:59 AM
ECMWF August plumes.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on August 12, 2018, 04:14:22 PM
Images from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 August 2018
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

 
Synopsis:  There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 12, 2018, 05:47:42 PM
ECMWF August plumes.

I guess that the ECMWF is implying that a Modoki type of El Nino is coming.  That said, the first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Temp & Temp Anom profiles, which indicate a relatively cool Eastern Pacific (which would be the case in a Modoki).  The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom which is currently in a slight cooling trend.

It will be interesting to see whether a Modoki type of El Nino occurs in 2018, or not.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 13, 2018, 03:27:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on August 13, 2018, 11:32:46 AM
ECMWF August plumes.

I guess that the ECMWF is implying that a Modoki type of El Nino is coming.  That said, the first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Temp & Temp Anom profiles, which indicate a relatively cool Eastern Pacific (which would be the case in a Modoki).  The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom which is currently in a slight cooling trend.

It will be interesting to see whether a Modoki type of El Nino occurs in 2018, or not.
Yes, my thoughts as well. The ECMWF July plumes were all running warmer than reality except Nino3 were actual temp was pretty much in the middle of the runs. JAMSTEC/Sintex-F is not updated for August but has been predicting a modoki for a while.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2228.msg158153.html#msg158153 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2228.msg158153.html#msg158153)
Edit; also adding the url:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html)

JMA's outlook for August:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html)

Back to the 80's yet again, 86-87 was a modoki, followed by a strong El Nino in 87-88.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 13, 2018, 05:42:42 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data thru the week centered on August 8 2018; the first two images issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, thru the week ending August 12 2018; the ENSO condition remains neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 13, 2018, 05:45:26 PM
The four attached images show the weekly BoM Nino indices for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, respectively, thru the week ending August 8 2018.  These values indicate that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on August 13, 2018, 09:37:50 PM

Back to the 80's yet again, 86-87 was a modoki, followed by a strong El Nino in 87-88.

For those of us who do not have a clue what a Modoki El Nino is......

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

Quote
The El Niño Modoki
El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. It is different from another coupled phenomenon in the tropical Pacific namely, El Niño. Conventional El Niño is characterized by strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see figure below). Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific (see figure below). Associated with this distinct warming and cooling patterns the teleconnections are very different from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Hence, the new phenomenon is of interest to the climate community.

The name " El Niño Modoki " was first coined by Prof. Yamagata in various press releases. Researchers of the Climate Variations Research Program of Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) lead by Prof. Yamagata documented this phenomenon for the first time. This phenomenon appears as second dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 14, 2018, 03:30:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -2.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on August 14, 2018, 11:42:46 PM
I’ve been pretty bullish since the big down-welling kelvin wave developed in February but starting to have some doubts.  I don’t know if this 2nd kelvin wave will be enough to kick Niño into gear.  Starting to run out of time....
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 15, 2018, 03:26:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 16, 2018, 03:29:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 17, 2018, 03:39:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 18, 2018, 04:08:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 19, 2018, 03:27:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 20, 2018, 03:27:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 20, 2018, 06:09:30 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two NOAA plots issued today and the last two BoM images for the weekly Nino 3.4 & IOD indices respectively, the ENSO remains on the warm side of neutral, but may (or may not) be initiating a warming trend:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 20, 2018, 06:12:25 PM
Today the BoM issued the four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending August 19 2018, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates that the ENSO condition remains on the warm side of neutral, and may (or may not) have initiated a warming trend:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 21, 2018, 03:38:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 21, 2018, 07:47:03 PM
The attached image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp, and Temp Anom, profiles issued August 21 2018.  This image indicates to me that a Modoki El Nino is still possible this year:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 22, 2018, 03:30:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 23, 2018, 03:26:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on August 23, 2018, 06:54:48 AM
JAMSTEC update. Link in #386.
Quote
Aug. 20, 2018
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in early fall and reach its peak in winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged in July. The model continues predicting the positive IOD for the boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state in the latter half of 2018; this is as we observed in 1994 (with El Niño Modoki) or 1997 and 2015 (with El Niño).
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in fall, while some parts of southern Africa and Tibet will experience a cooler-than-normal condition. In winter, most part of the globe will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, while southern Alaska, western U.S.A., northern Brazil, Botswana, northern India, Iran, Afghanistan, northeastern Russia, and Tibet will experience a relatively cold condition.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal fall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of Alaska, western/eastern Canada, central/eastern U.S.A., East Africa, West Africa, and northern Europe. In contrast, northwestern/southeastern U.S.A., eastern Brazil, eastern Europe, South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and Australia may be extremely drier than normal, owing to the expected co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state.
In winter, we expect a drier-than-normal condition in northern South American Continent, Australia, Mozambique, South Africa, southern Angola, Zambia, southeastern Europe facing the Mediterranean Sea, northern Europe, southern India, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia. On the other hand, most parts of U.S.A, northeastern/south Brazil, northern South Africa, Botswana, western Europe, southeastern China will be wetter-than-normal.
Most part of Japan will experience warmer-than-normal condition in fall and winter as a seasonal average.

On a side note (or oddity...), their 2-year forecast changed a lot between July and August.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 24, 2018, 03:28:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -7.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Tunnelforce9 on August 24, 2018, 04:00:00 AM
I came across this introduction to el Nino and in particular Modoki el Nino's

Quote
The two images below compare temperatures during El Nino events, and during El Nino Modoki events. Notice how the extremes are stronger (darker blue means colder) during the Modoki type events. The first thing you may notice is that the Western U.S. is much warmer and drier in a Modoki event than in a regular El Nino.

The opposite is true over the Eastern U.S., with cooler and wetter conditions than normal and cooler and wetter than a regular El Nino.

http://content.wboc.com/el-nino/
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 25, 2018, 03:35:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 26, 2018, 03:29:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -6.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 27, 2018, 03:25:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -6.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 27, 2018, 04:53:51 PM
While the following weekly NOAA Nino values thru the week centered on August 22 2018, together with the first two NOAA plots and the last two BoM plots, indicate that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition; I believe that there is still time for a Modoki El Nino to possibly form during the 2018-2019 season:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 27, 2018, 04:56:43 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending August 26 2018 were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 28, 2018, 03:30:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 29, 2018, 03:26:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -7.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 30, 2018, 03:25:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -7.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 31, 2018, 03:46:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -8.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on August 31, 2018, 05:38:25 AM
New paper in Nature about changes to El Niño in the last 20 years.  Anomalies are shifting west and Niños on average are weakening.  ITCZ is also shifting north and hasn’t crossed the equator since 1998.  The mean state of the tropical Pacific is trending more La Niña like. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0248-0?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201809&spMailingID=57276774&spUserID=NjIwMjY2Nzg3NAS2&spJobID=1464057119&spReportId=MTQ2NDA1NzExOQS2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0248-0?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201809&spMailingID=57276774&spUserID=NjIwMjY2Nzg3NAS2&spJobID=1464057119&spReportId=MTQ2NDA1NzExOQS2)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 01, 2018, 03:31:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Ned W on September 01, 2018, 03:36:04 AM
FWIW, I appreciate seeing these updates on the status of ENSO.  Thx.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 02, 2018, 03:27:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -6.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 03, 2018, 03:31:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2018, 03:37:10 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2018, 04:07:24 AM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data, the first two NOAA Eq Pac images issued today for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two weekly BoM indices plots for the Nino 3.4 and IOD thru the week ending Sept 2 2018, respectively: the ENSO condition remains neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2018, 04:09:45 AM
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Sept 2 2018, were issued by the BoM & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This information indicates that the ENSO condition remains neutral.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 05, 2018, 03:26:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on September 05, 2018, 06:50:02 AM
GFS forecasting a sustained period of low SOI values.  Maybe the most impressive of this ENSO cycle so far.  We'll see.  Trades over Niño 4 & 3 are also forecast to slacken over the next 7 days. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 06, 2018, 03:27:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2018, 03:27:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2018, 05:12:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: crandles on September 08, 2018, 04:49:41 PM
CFS showing downward correction for Sept:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2Fimages3%2Fnino34SeaadjPDFSPRDC.gif&hash=cfb903c1cf7ea2d7033ff614562ea590)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images3/nino34SeaadjPDFSPRDC.gif
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 09, 2018, 03:27:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -7.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2018, 03:26:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2018, 04:56:09 PM
Per the following weekly Nino data issued today by NOAA thru the week centered on Sept 5 2018, and the four attached images (the first two from NOAA and the last two from the BoM), ENSO remains in a neutral condition (although on the warm side of neutral):

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2018, 04:57:49 PM
The attached images show the BoM Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices thru the week ending Sept 9 2018.  This data indicates that the ENSO remains in a neutral condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: jacksmith4tx on September 10, 2018, 05:42:05 PM
WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (September 2018)
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wmo-el-ni-ola-ni-update-september-2018
Quote
Trend continues of warmer than normal conditions, accompanied by extreme weather

Geneva, 10 September 2018 - There is a 70% chance of an El Niño developing by the end of this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its intensity is currently uncertain, but a strong event appears unlikely.

...

Global seasonal climate outlook

For the first time, WMO accompanied the El Niño Update with a global seasonal climate outlook for the September-November season, based on an ensemble of global prediction models run by WMO-accredited centres around the world.

Possibly due to the weak strength of the expected El Niño conditions during the season, the precipitation patterns predicted resemble those normally associated with El Niño in some, but not all, of the ENSO-sensitive regions.

A tilt of the odds towards above-normal surface temperature is forecast in nearly all of the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, North America, Africa and much of coastal South America. Many – but not all - of these regions also saw above-normal temperatures during May-July 2018. Much of North America, Europe, North Africa, East Asia and the Middle East saw temperatures 1-3 ° C above normal.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 11, 2018, 03:25:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2018, 03:32:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -6.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 13, 2018, 03:28:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 14, 2018, 06:28:06 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 15, 2018, 03:40:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 16, 2018, 03:26:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 03:32:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on September 17, 2018, 06:30:41 AM
Thanks to the kelvin wave, equatorial upper-ocean heat anomalies are at their highest value yet of this ENSO cycle. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on September 17, 2018, 10:52:58 AM
ECMWF Nino plumes for September.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on September 17, 2018, 10:56:12 AM
Adding a small animation of the main culprit, the Nino3 region between June-September.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 05:26:08 PM

Per the following NOAA Eq Pac weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Sept 12, 2018, the first two NOAA images of the weekly SSTA, and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, Evolutions, and the last two BoM images showing both the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD for the week ending Sept 16 2018, the ENSO condition remains neutral but appears to be undergoing a warming trend, but the real question is whether the ocean and the atmosphere will reinforce each other sufficiently to generate an El Nino (possibly a Modoki) this season?

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 05:33:26 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Sept 16 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  This data indicates that ENSO conditions remain neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 18, 2018, 03:32:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on September 18, 2018, 09:17:06 AM
ENSO condition remains neutral but appears to be undergoing a warming trend, but the real question is whether the ocean and the atmosphere will reinforce each other sufficiently to generate an El Nino (possibly a Modoki) this season?
FWIW, my impression is that everything is too weak (subsurface pool, MJO etc), except for the models where many have been (and maybe still are) running too hot.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2018, 03:26:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2018, 03:40:44 AM
ENSO condition remains neutral but appears to be undergoing a warming trend, but the real question is whether the ocean and the atmosphere will reinforce each other sufficiently to generate an El Nino (possibly a Modoki) this season?
FWIW, my impression is that everything is too weak (subsurface pool, MJO etc), except for the models where many have been (and maybe still are) running too hot.

While I certainly concur with your impression, I think that we will need to wait a few more weeks to have more confidence that this season will remain on the warm side of neutral.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2018, 03:26:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 21, 2018, 03:33:49 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 22, 2018, 03:27:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 23, 2018, 03:28:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 03:27:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 06:02:07 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data and the four attached plots (the first two showing NOAA's Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM plots of the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively), the ENSO condition remains neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 06:04:07 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plot thru the week ending Sept 23 2018, were issued today by the BoM and respectively show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices.  This data indicates that ENSO conditions remain neutral:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 03:25:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 03:27:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on September 26, 2018, 07:33:04 PM
Here we go?!  You can see how quickly SSTs have responded to this week’s WWB. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 27, 2018, 04:49:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2018, 01:38:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2018, 03:30:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 30, 2018, 03:33:04 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on September 30, 2018, 03:44:42 PM
Better late than never, Jamstec:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html)
Quote
Sep. 25, 2018
Prediction from 1st Sep., 2018

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F continues to predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño event that may emerge in fall and reach its peak in winter. This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has actually emerged during July. In particular, we can see the cold sea surface temperature in the eastern pole clearly. The model predicts the positive IOD to continue during the boreal fall. In accord to the positive IOD evolution, sea level anomalies are expected to be negative (positive) in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state in the boreal fall and winter seasons of 2018; this is as we observed in 1994 (with El Niño Modoki) or 1997 and 2015 (with El Niño).
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 03:37:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -9.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on October 01, 2018, 05:23:43 AM
The 30-day SOI about to go below -10, with the 90-day SOI threatening to go below -5.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: dnem on October 01, 2018, 03:27:42 PM
Oren (or ASLR), can you put that in some context?
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 05:39:27 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two NOAA plots and the last two BoM plots, the ENSO may have just crossed the NOAA threshold for possible El Nino (Modoki) conditions, but for this to be an official El Nino event the Nino 3.4 indict must (on a three-month average) stay about this threshold for five consecutive periods:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 05:42:26 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Sept 30 2018, were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they suggest that we may (or may not) be headed towards a Modoki even this season:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 05:52:18 PM
Oren (or ASLR), can you put that in some context?

dnem,

The linked weatherzone website provides one definition of how ENSO events relate to SOI, while the BoM cites that for La Nina events SOI must be consistently well above +8, and for El Nino events SOI must be consistently well below -8, for several consecutive months (see the attached weatherzone plot):

Title: "Southern Oscillation Index"

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi

Extract: "The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

A strongly and consistently positive SOI pattern (e.g. consistently above about +6 over a two month period) is related to a high probability of above the long-term average (median) rainfall for many areas of Australia, especially areas of eastern Australia (including northern Tasmania) - La Niña.

Conversely, a 'deep' and consistently negative SOI pattern (less than about minus 6 over a two month period, with little change over that period) is related to a high probability of below median rainfall for many areas of Australia at certain times of the year - El Niño.

However, it is important to remember that the pattern of relationship between SOI and rainfall (and temperature) can vary depending on the particular season and region. Additionally, the change in SOI over a specified period can be as important in understanding relationships between SOI and rainfall as is the absolute value in SOI."

Regards,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on October 01, 2018, 06:06:44 PM
Oren (or ASLR), can you put that in some context?
Just to add to ASLR's excellent explanation, here are long term charts of the 30-day average SOI and the 90-day average SOI. For context, the 1998 and 2016 events showing nicely as negative areas in the charts were considered "monster El Ninos".
Note: this chart would be more interesting with official El-Nino and La Nina periods highlighted, unfortunately that is beyond my ability.
You can see that -10 for the 30-day SOI is rather low, though still within common random variation. 90-day SOI at -5 is nothing much to write home about. But both are at lows not seen for a year or two. If the SOI goes much lower from here and/or remains consistently low, an EL Nino could develop.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: dnem on October 01, 2018, 07:01:41 PM
Excellent, thanks guys!
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 02, 2018, 03:27:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -10.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 02, 2018, 06:43:19 AM
For those who prefer see the overall ENSO-state in one image, here are the NINO-area graphs in one graph. Tried to scale NINO4 to the others, and did use antialiasing in combining the four to give the graph some inaccuracy :-D . Eyeballing, it looks like the overall NINO areas run some 0,5 degrees hot, but of course this should be calculated from a longer period.

ENSO areas are numbered from right to left, thus inverted their order in the caption, a proper Nino where large positive anomalies on areas 2 and 1 follow areas 4 and 3 can be seen in 2015/03-2016/03.

In the absence of an adjusted baseline (the hot-running 0,5 degrees mentioned) for the oscillation, it's hard to say if a very weak Nina occurs here at all (possibly 2017/08-2018/03). I'd suggest a 12 year running average (of course trailing average) of the whole tropical Pacific as the adjusted (zero) baseline, but I've not done any verification whether it's a good one. Sun's effect should be minimal with this period, though.

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on October 03, 2018, 03:07:42 AM
A look at 850 wind totals(not anomalies).   Not only a relaxing of the trades but a reversal to westerly winds.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2018, 03:27:18 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -10.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 03, 2018, 06:00:32 AM
Added some text to my last, would that make sense to do that?
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 03:29:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -10.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 05, 2018, 03:28:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -9.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 06, 2018, 03:28:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -9.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 07, 2018, 03:29:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 03:29:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 05:11:30 PM
The first two images were posted today by NOAA show the Eq Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom. and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  The last two image were posted today by the BoM and show the weekly Nino 3.4 and IOD indices respectively thru the week ending Oct 7 2018.  Together with the following weekly NOAA Nino index values thru the week centered on Oct 3, 2018, it looks like there is a good chance that we are headed towards a Modoki-type El Nino event this season:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 05:13:46 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, thru the week ending Oct 7 2018.  This data suggests that we are likely headed towards a Modoki El Nino event this season:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 09, 2018, 03:27:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 10, 2018, 03:37:49 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on October 10, 2018, 09:15:18 PM
ECMWF plumes for October. Ensembles were on the warm side in all areas for September.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 11, 2018, 03:25:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 12, 2018, 03:28:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on October 12, 2018, 10:12:02 AM
A weak El Nino for the winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 October 2018
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis:  El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during September, but with increasingly more widespread regions of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the last month, all four Niño index values increased, with the latest weekly values in each region near +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also increased during the last month [Fig. 3], due to the expansion and strengthening of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Convection was increasingly suppressed over Indonesia and around the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the western and east-central Pacific, with some of the strongest anomalies occurring over the eastern Pacific during the past week. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Overall, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral, but with recent trends indicative of a developing El Niño.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to form during the fall and continue through the winter [Fig. 6]. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 November 2018.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on October 12, 2018, 10:39:43 AM
A weak El Nino for the winter.
A pretty safe bet without a single model output since only one El Nino that started this late, has passed 1°C and into moderate. That was 86-87, which leads me back to my old pony, the back to back El Nino in 87-88 which was a strong one.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 13, 2018, 03:27:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.2:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 14, 2018, 03:27:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 14, 2018, 05:01:48 PM
ECMWF plumes for October. Ensembles were on the warm side in all areas for September.
There's still quite a while until January, looking like a very weak Nino now.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 15, 2018, 03:27:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on October 15, 2018, 07:05:14 AM
ECMWF plumes for October. Ensembles were on the warm side in all areas for September.
There's still quite a while until January, looking like a very weak Nino now.
Yes but it's also late for anything stronger if you look at history, as I wrote in 492 above. Should have added again that the 86-87 also was a modoki.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 15, 2018, 05:40:35 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Oct 10 2018, the first two NOAA images for the Eq Pac. and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively for the week ending Oct 14 2018; at the moment we are in a weak El Nino condition, but only time will tell if this will qualify as an official El Nino event:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 15, 2018, 05:43:58 PM
The four attached weekly Nino indices were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Oct 14 2018, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates that we are currently in a weak Modoki-type El Nino condition, and only time will tell whether this season eventually qualifies as an official El Nino event (or not):
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 16, 2018, 03:27:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 17, 2018, 03:29:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.8:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Geoff on October 17, 2018, 05:48:17 AM
Is there some version of this that has that monthly (lunar?) fluctuation removed? Looks like it is a pretty standard artefact.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 18, 2018, 03:29:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 19, 2018, 03:28:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 20, 2018, 03:26:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 21, 2018, 03:31:05 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -2.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 22, 2018, 03:27:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -2.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 22, 2018, 05:48:16 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino values, the first two attached NOAA plots (issued today) of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two BoM plots thru the week ending Oct 21 2018 showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively: The current weak Modoki El Nino conditions remain in effect:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 22, 2018, 05:50:54 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM, thru the week ending Oct 21 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively; all of which indicate that we remain in a weak Modoki El Nino condition:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 23, 2018, 03:29:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.1:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 24, 2018, 03:25:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 25, 2018, 03:26:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 26, 2018, 03:27:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on October 26, 2018, 10:28:08 AM
Had a look at the RTG_SST_HR analysis. We know that positive phases of the PDO tend to be associated with periods of more rapid global warming, so how will this unfold?

As noted from the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread, Hansen was talking about ENSO and used recent La Nina's in his latest mailings when speculating about further warming, he also continued with aerosol effects as a cause for this acceleration:
Quote
My talk was nominally about atmospheric aerosols, the portion of the climate story that is poorly defined, in contrast to the greenhouse gas portion. However, we must look at the broad climate picture to appreciate the importance of aerosols. Global warming accelerated markedly in the past several years (see Chart 13). What is driving that acceleration? I suggest that at least a portion of the increased warming rate is probably because growth of atmospheric aerosols is no longer keeping pace with growth of greenhouse gases.

Indeed, global aerosol forcing of climate may have stabilized or even decreased slightly during the past several years, because of efforts to reduce air pollution in parts of the world such as China. However, as I emphasized in Storms of My Grandchildren, the high precision global measurements needed to define changes in aerosol climate forcing, especially the effect of aerosols on clouds, are not being made.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20181024_AGU+CAScombined.pdf (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20181024_AGU+CAScombined.pdf)

The anomalous years seems to be between the last two very strong El Nino's and it looks more like we might be heading into a follow up like 86-88 (after the 82-83 El Nino), but warmer.
Jan Null's ONI graph:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=445.0;attach=110383;image)
https://www.ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm (https://www.ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm)

Attaching October 25 compared to the same date in 2014 from the RTG_SST_HR analysis below.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 27, 2018, 10:38:38 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 28, 2018, 02:28:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -0.9:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 29, 2018, 02:26:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.3:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 29, 2018, 03:41:24 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Oct 24 2018, the first two NOAA plots (issued today) for the Eq Pac showing Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM plots showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively for the week ending Oct 28 2018; the current Modoki-El Nino conditions are strengthening.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 29, 2018, 03:44:56 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Oct 28, 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate that the current ENSO condition corresponds to a relatively weak Modoki-El Nino:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 30, 2018, 02:28:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 02:26:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2018, 02:27:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 03, 2018, 02:33:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.6:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 04, 2018, 02:38:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 05, 2018, 02:27:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant at +3.0:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 05, 2018, 04:29:18 PM
The first two images were issued by NOAA today & show the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  The last two images show the BoM's weekly indices thru the week ending Nov 4 2018, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.  Collectively, this data suggests that the current Modoki El Nino ENSO condition may be nearing its peak intensity:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 05, 2018, 04:31:47 PM
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Nov 4 2018 show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This information suggests that the current Modoki El Nino ENSO condition may be nearing its peak intensity:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: jai mitchell on November 05, 2018, 09:51:13 PM
update November 5, 2018

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 06, 2018, 02:36:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant at +3.0 (four the third day in a row):
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 07, 2018, 02:44:03 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant at +3.0 (four the fourth day in a row):
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 08, 2018, 02:36:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remained constant at +3.0 (for the fifth day in a row):
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 09, 2018, 02:26:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 10, 2018, 02:27:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +3.7:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 11, 2018, 02:29:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +3.7 (for the third day in a row):
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2018, 05:59:41 PM
ECMWF Nino plumes for November. The October plumes was spot on, for once...
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 11, 2018, 06:33:35 PM
ECMWF Nino plumes for November. The October plumes was spot on, for once...
That is so absolutely lame for an el nino nowadays. Maybe next year there's one proper one. Modoki and a lame one @that.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2018, 02:38:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +3.7 (for the fourth day in a row):
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2018, 05:00:09 PM


Per the following NOAA weekly Nino indices data and the attached images, it is possible that the current moderate Modoki El Nino ENSO condition may have peaked.  The first two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac and show the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively.  The last two images where issued by the BoM today and show the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices thru the week ending Nov 11 2018, respectively:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2018, 05:02:35 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM and show the weekly Nino plots thru the week ending Nov 11 2018.  They show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and collectively indicate that the current moderate Modoki El Nino ENSO condition may have peaked:
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2018, 09:38:35 PM
Due to Neven's management style in this forum I have decided to stop posting in this forum.

Sayonara,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Ktb on November 13, 2018, 05:50:34 AM
A shame to be sure.

I enjoyed checking your updates daily.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on November 22, 2018, 05:23:09 AM
After 2 weeks of near to above normal trades our next WWB is on the way.  Westerly winds pick up in the main ENSO region by the 26th.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Alexander555 on November 22, 2018, 05:31:50 AM
We are waiting  :)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on November 25, 2018, 10:47:26 PM
We should see some noticeable impacts over the next 10 days.  WWB really kicks in by Wednesday this week.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on November 26, 2018, 01:54:31 AM
The 30-day SOI is now around zero, and the 90-day SOI has been around -2 for the past two weeks. So this index is currently not pointing towards an El-Nino, although the Nino 3.4 index is still above 0.5.

I wish ASLR left his links for the charts, so it would be easier for someone to provide periodic updates (though I think daily SOI charts are too frequent).
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Rodius on November 26, 2018, 06:43:14 AM
I can do this 2 or 3 times a week.

The link for the charts and updates is http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on November 26, 2018, 09:34:20 AM
Thank you Rodius.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Steven on November 26, 2018, 06:32:30 PM
According to NOAA's latest weekly ENSO update, sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have increased substantially in the last week. The weekly Nino 3.4 index is now at 1.3°C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Week           Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4                                       
03OCT2018     0.7        0.7      0.7      0.8
10OCT2018     0.4        0.7      0.6      0.9
17OCT2018     0.3        1.0      0.9      0.9
24OCT2018     0.3        1.0      1.1      1.1
31OCT2018     0.2        0.9      1.2      1.1
07NOV2018     0.8        0.9      0.8      0.9
14NOV2018     0.6        0.8      0.7      0.9
21NOV2018     0.8        1.3      1.3      1.0

(https://i.imgur.com/z9aBFUF.png)
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: pileus on November 27, 2018, 03:56:10 PM
Sorry to see ASLR go, it’s a loss for the forum and knowledge base here on a wide range of topics.
————

Strong chance of a new El Niño forming by early 2019

“The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there's a 90% chance of the event starting in January.”

“The WMO models are say that a fully fledged El Niño is estimated to be 75-80% likely between December and February 2019.

At this point, the WMO says its predictions for the event range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength event with sea surface temperatures peaking between 0.8C to 1.2C above average.

The chance of a strong event are currently low.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-46347451?__twitter_impression=true



Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Rodius on November 29, 2018, 04:36:20 AM
The 30-day moving average SOI.

In summary:

Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at a weak El Niño level since October 2018, but the corresponding El Niño patterns have not developed in the atmosphere.

Model predictions and expert opinion indicate a 75-80% chance that the ocean and atmosphere will couple, leading to the occurrence of an El Niño during the period December 2018-February 2019. Odds are about 60% for El Niño to continue through February-April 2019.

Model predictions and expert opinion also lead us to expect a weak to moderate El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures of about 0.8 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above average in the east-central tropical Pacific for the December 2018-February 2019 season. A strong El Niño event appears unlikely at this stage.

Through Northern Hemisphere spring 2019, the development of La Niña is highly unlikely.

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Rodius on December 03, 2018, 04:29:08 AM
It is just sitting around zero.

The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño forming in 2018 is around 70%; triple the normal likelihood.

Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain above El Niño thresholds, but atmospheric indicators have yet to show a consistent El Niño signal and are presently neutral. This suggests the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean have yet to couple (reinforce each other), a process that would sustain an El Niño, and result in widespread global impacts. Model outlooks indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds in the coming months.

El Niño ALERT is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur; it is an indication that most typical precursors of an event are in place. If an El Niño were to develop, it would be considered a very late starting event.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 04, 2018, 06:58:35 AM
The same chance of a later (february start instead of dec) than usual el Nino reported by wmo,
 https://www.ecowatch.com/el-nino-2019-wmo-2621655246.html
Outgassing of co2 from hot surface waters might thus not be seen as well as usual as it would co-incide with the northern spring growth.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Rodius on December 08, 2018, 12:52:51 AM
Has shifted upwards to about +3

El Nino is still on alert.

Here is the wrap-up according to BOM Australia

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral, despite some indicators reaching El Niño levels. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in the tropical Indian Ocean weakened in the past fortnight.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have now exceeded El Niño thresholds for more than a month. However atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloud patterns, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have not reached El Niño levels. This indicates that the tropical ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other and remain 'uncoupled'. This coupling is required to establish and sustain any ENSO event, and is what drives widespread Australian and global impacts.

Recently, trade winds in the western Pacific have weakened in association with the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Some models suggest they may remain weakened for at least the next fortnight.

International climate models predict sea surface temperatures to remain at or above El Niño levels in December and January. By February, all but one of the eight surveyed models remain above El Niño thresholds. El Niño effects in Australia over summer typically include higher fire risk, greater chance of heatwaves, and fewer tropical cyclones.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on December 08, 2018, 04:53:13 AM
The low frequency standing wave (blues near the dateline) over the ENSO region has been interfered with by MJO/CCKW activity this fall.  You can see this occurring with the most recent wave the last 2 weeks.  Anomalous divergence aloft returning in maybe a week?  We’ll see. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Rodius on December 14, 2018, 11:57:43 PM
Still bouncing around the +3 mark.
No new info from BOM concerning ENSO

Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: gerontocrat on December 15, 2018, 10:46:59 AM
Latest monthly update from the NOAA

Quote
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 December 2018
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

 
Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during November, despite the continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly SST indices for all four Niño regions were near +1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened slightly [Fig. 3], but above-average temperatures persist at depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, the atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. For the month as a whole, atmospheric convection remained close to average near the Date Line and suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, the low-level and upper level winds were mostly near average across the equatorial Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, while the traditional SOI was near zero. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through the winter and spring [Fig. 6]. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and spring (~60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 January 2019.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Rodius on December 21, 2018, 11:10:20 PM
It has jumped to +9.6
I am no expert, I even had to check that the + indicates La Nino, but given the ongoing prediction of El Nino, I am somewhat surprised personally.
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: oren on December 23, 2018, 01:03:54 AM
The atmosphere is certainly not playing along with this El Nino, meaning there is no feedback loop (as far as my layman's understanding goes).
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: wolfpack513 on December 28, 2018, 09:35:32 PM
One of the strongest MJO waves on record will be moving across the Pacific the next 7 days.  Comparable to the March 2015 wave.  Will be interesting the next few weeks to watch the response.  This may have more impact on the next ENSO cycle rather than this cycle this current winter. 
Title: Re: 2018 ENSO
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 06, 2019, 10:59:05 AM
Note that it's 2019, and a new thread could be made.

Please include a long record of ENSO in the opening post.

I'm also curious of the effect of the Anak Krakatau sulfates on ENSO predictions if any.