Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Policy and solutions => Topic started by: Neven on September 15, 2018, 02:46:10 PM

Title: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 15, 2018, 02:46:10 PM
This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

For a more general discussion on EVs and their future, usefulness and technological aspects, use the thread that was always meant for that: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and.... (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.0.html)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on September 15, 2018, 02:49:59 PM
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-president-bfr-mars-exploration-madrid-talk/

Quote
Other miscellaneous comments showed Shotwell at her best, ad-libbing one-liners that were lucid, accurate, and entertaining.

“We’ll be going to Mars … with NASA and with ESA. It’s gonna be like extreme camping… for 100 years. And then it might be okay.”
“[Space] tourism is inevitable but [SpaceX] doesn’t want to do it too soon”, the goal is to launch “test pilots before families”
“The first cars on Mars will be Teslas.”

Someone's confident Tesla will survive a few years  ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 03:00:22 PM
#Tesla's Model S remained W-Europe's top selling luxury model according to @AIDNewsletter data
It remained ahead of S-Class/7-Series/A8 in their own backyard during H1.
Model S sales expected to rise in H2 thanks to tax change in The Netherlands then slow next year
https://twitter.com/auto_schmidt/status/1039807784152391681

“People are sick and tired in Europe of small cars with poor performance engines. Tired of paying 7$ a gallon . Tired of crazy taxes they pay for those small boxes . When Tesla puts the foot in Europe properly then Asia the support encountered will be unseen .”
https://twitter.com/florindoc2003/status/1039885612524990464

—-

Base $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Production To Start In 8 Months
https://insideevs.com/base-35000-tesla-model-3-production-8-months/

Tesla threat to auto makers to grow dramatically in ~8 months with the $35,000 Tesla Model 3
@Toyota Camry XSE  $34,950
@BMW 3 Series >$34,900 @Mercedes-Benz C >$40,250
@Audi A4 $36,000

Meanwhile in Fremont, cost of building Teslas going down every day.  (30% decrease in labor per car, after lessons learned during the first 5,000-Model-3 burst week last June.)

The Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in August, by revenue. 
(Wait for the Model Y to take on the SUVs, and the Tesla pickup truck to enter the truck market!)

—-
Tesla’s positive growth is organic, word-of-mouth support, not ad-company blather.

Ethan Shapiro (@DJFrustration) 9/13/18, 11:01 PM
Big props to @Tesla @elonmusk and @woodhaus2 on designing the safest SUV, ever. My wife was rear ended (hit & run) in Miami today. She was shaken, but should be ok. First responders said, “as soon as they heard to look for a white Tesla, they knew she’d be ok.” Thanks guys.
https://twitter.com/djfrustration/status/1040435402878930945
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 03:18:58 PM
Not just ‘trash talk.’

Investors vote with their billions, supporting Elon Musk’s vision for Tesla.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 15, 2018, 03:43:32 PM
Good idea making this its own thread. Here is some trash talk...

David Stockman, former Director of US Office of Management and Budget and in general controversial figure, just gave a wide ranging interview and was asked about Tesla...

"Tesla, you know, is a wreck. It’s one of the biggest con jobs in modern history. You know, the idea that some how he has the secret formula to make an electric vehicle is ridiculous… He doesn’t know how to make a car. They are making them by hand…in order make 5,000 that week. It turns out they are sitting out in a field somewhere waiting to get reworked. I feel strongly about this, I was in the auto business. I know what mass production takes in terms of discipline, what i takes in terms of building infrastructure over time. Telsa isn’t a car manufacturer, it is a con. It is a con. It is the greatest short of this cycle. If some one has a strong stomach, go out and short the thing, cuz it will go to zero one of these days. It will end up being the poster boy for this bubble, the pets.com, only much bigger.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2018, 03:53:19 PM
Tesla was objectively the top selling car in the US by revenue and 5th top selling car by units.  What are you going about?

 That is exactly what the graphs illustrate. Revenue is important because people are claiming that Tesla is going bankwupt. Having the top selling car by revenue is important don't you think?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 15, 2018, 04:09:33 PM
By revenue, Lurk. I believe this is the source: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/

Quote
The high average selling price of the Model 3 and the record deliveries have resulted in Tesla’s Model 3 being the #1 best-selling car in the US by revenue in both July and August.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2018, 04:21:00 PM
Number of units * average vehicle sale price = Revenue.

The significance should be simple for someone in a position with such a large name.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2018, 04:25:26 PM
Quote
Do note the subtlety of the url and headline Neven - #1-best-selling-car-in-the-us.

You base your argument on the url?

The headlines clearly states with a parenthesis (By revenue).
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2018, 04:28:40 PM
Quote
I say let's not spin anything

Ahhh! The blissful unawareness of our bias.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 15, 2018, 04:31:02 PM
Lurk - your opinion that number of cars sold by model is more important than revenue by model may be quite valid. But your long-winded post said something else instead - that sig's data was not sourced properly and implied to be untrue. And not only in this case, but in general. And yet, sig's information was correct, you just didn't like the way someone might spin it.
Quote
The Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in August, by revenue
Quote
How, instead and for a change, finding both better sources and presenting the truth and the objective facts, at least occasionally Sig.? 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 15, 2018, 04:42:44 PM
So, I opened this thread at 02:46:10 PM (my time), explicitly asking to mainly post articles pro and contra and not engage in endless flame wars interpreting said articles. It went off the rails at 03:45:24 PM, just within the hour.  ;D

Let's try again. Post articles pro and contra, and resist the urge to go nuts over one sentence. Just post the stuff, and sooner or later we'll find out whether Tesla makes it or not.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2018, 04:51:42 PM
You got it Neven.

Tesla Glory:

First World Problems - how to be in for Amazon when you're out

https://youtu.be/Iz09C8g0KWA
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 15, 2018, 05:19:46 PM
Tesla was objectively the top selling car in the US by revenue and 5th top selling car by units.  What are you going about?

 That is exactly what the graphs illustrate. Revenue is important because people are claiming that Tesla is going bankwupt. Having the top selling car by revenue is important don't you think?

I guess it isn't unimportant, but it really isn't very important. Plenty of companies go bankwupt with plenty of revenue. Free cash flow...like making more than you spend...that is what will determine the timing of The Great Tesla File. Astute observers will have noticed that in Tesla's mid quarter update, there was no longer any mention of profitability....

In terms of actual news: Model 3 production has seen an uptick to mid 4000s the past week.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 05:50:34 PM
Tesla Model 3 was the #1 selling car (excl. trucks and SUVs) by revenue in the U.S. in August, for the 2nd straight month and by a wide margin.
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1037530373796839424

Edit: added July data
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 06:02:05 PM
Tesla’s annual revenue:

2018: $19.6 billion*
2017: $11.8 billion
2016: $7.0 billion
2015: $4.1 billion
2014: $3.2 billion
2013: $2.0 billion
2012: $413.3 million
2011: $204.2 million
2010: $116.7 million
2009: $111.9 million
2008: $14.7 million

(*analyst estimates)

https://twitter.com/jonerlichman/status/1014612350291202048
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 15, 2018, 06:11:35 PM
Deal with the hard facts. Tesla was NOT the #1 best selling US car in August. Do not pretend that it was. It wasn't - the Toyota Camry was (according to that source I quoted)

Yes, by units sold. And by revenue, Tesla's Model 3 held the #1 spot.

So, we all agree. Let's continue posting pro and contra articles.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 15, 2018, 06:14:52 PM
So, is there any data out there showing how the Model 3 stacks up against other 60K cars, by units sold and by revenue?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 06:21:56 PM
Entry-level luxury cars.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 06:24:53 PM
Model 3 sales versus entire brands.
And, oh yes, versus other EVs. ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 15, 2018, 07:22:11 PM
Tesla threat to auto makers to grow dramatically in ~8 months with the $35,000 Tesla Model 3
@Toyota Camry XSE  $34,950
@BMW 3 Series >$34,900 @Mercedes-Benz C >$40,250
@Audi A4 $36,000

Tesla said they would be at consistent 5,000/wk model 3 production by the end on 2017. And they still are not there. That prediction was 5 months out, and is now 13.5 months later without being fulfilled. So (13.5)/(5) = 2.7 .   2.7*8 = 21.6 .   So I think it is fair to expect the $35k model 3 to arrive at some point between 21.6 months from now and never.

And you have threat backwards. Toyota, BMW, and Audi have no near term solvency issues. They all have positive free cash flow and sit on 10s of billions of dollars of cash. They have proven business models and global reach totally unreliant on capital markets or government subsidies. I'm not cheerleading these things...just calling a spade a spade.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 15, 2018, 07:32:56 PM
hahahaha, I have never seen a rainbowed bar graph before. EPICcally silicon valley.  So if you look at the free cash flow and the revenue charts together, you can see that lose money pretty much no matter what. As the old saying goes, "we lose money on every sale, but we make it up on volume." STRUCTURALLY UNPROFITABLE.

Neven, serious question: Is there a problem with us endlessly posting our disputes about Tesla on this thread? Is there a reason we need to limit it to genuinely novel information?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 15, 2018, 08:16:53 PM
don't get bogged down in semantics; keep some perspective: how many FORD mustangs or BMW 3 series would have been sold in August if there were only very very few available in 2017 or the first half of 2018? WAY more than the number of TESLA model 3s

Luckily, this will all be over soon
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 08:38:20 PM
“Luckily, this will all be over soon”

So true.  I can’t wait!  Q3 results will electrocute the shorts. 

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 15, 2018, 09:19:24 PM
“Luckily, this will all be over soon”

So true.  I can’t wait!  Q3 results will electrocute the shorts.

There is literally nothing that Tesla can report in Q3 that will significantly hurt the shorts. The short thesis is build on the idea that Tesla is fraudulent. The shorts response to Tesla claiming a billion dollar profit in Q3 and a spike in the stock price will be, "lol, carrying my short position just got cheaper and more lucrative."

Seriously person, at least know what you are up against...
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2018, 10:12:16 PM
Great addition to the graph Sigmetnow.

It adds the context needed to understand the loses. After each new car model is completed the cost of building factories, Tesla stores and super chargers fall and profits from the new cars emerge. Then Tesla sinks everything any cheap debt they can get into designing and building factories for the next car.

They did it for Model S, Model X and now they are doing it for Model 3. They MUST be profitable, because if they are not the laws of economics makes Tesla unsustainable. What good are unsustainable EV's?

My hope is that after Tesla hits green either in Q3 or Q4 they remain in the green only for the minimum time necesary to regain confidence from the market, pay down a few bills and build up their cash reserves. When they are ready they should raise as much cheap debt as possible and build 3 more Gigafactories.


Sigmetnow I'm afraid that even if the most epic of short squeezes happens, the trolls will remain. Tesla is part of the same battle as climate change. There are many people protecting the status quo by any means necesary. Fools that can't comprehend the dangers we are all in.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 10:57:31 PM
Great addition to the graph Sigmetnow.

It adds the context needed to understand the loses. After each new car model is completed the cost of building factories, Tesla stores and super chargers fall and profits from the new cars emerge. Then Tesla sinks everything any cheap debt they can get into designing and building factories for the next car.

They did it for Model S, Model X and now they are doing it for Model 3. They MUST be profitable, because if they are not the laws of economics makes Tesla unsustainable. What good are unsustainable EV's?

My hope is that after Tesla hits green either in Q3 or Q4 they remain in the green only for the minimum time necesary to regain confidence from the market, pay down a few bills and build up their cash reserves. When they are ready they should raise as much cheap debt as possible and build 3 more Gigafactories.


Sigmetnow I'm afraid that even if the most epic of short squeezes happens, the trolls will remain. Tesla is part of the same battle as climate change. There are many people protecting the status quo by any means necesary. Fools that can't comprehend the dangers we are all in.

Q3 is the beginning of “sustainably profitable” for Tesla. 
Recent VIN registrations are 100% for dual motor versions of the Model 3.  Demand for Performance version surpasses even Tesla’s expectations.  A recent “sign and drive” opportunity with 400 cars for people who had ordered a Model 3 ran out of dual motor models within hours.  The average sale price of the Model 3 could easily be above $60,000 and with Tesla planning to produce and deliver over 50,000 vehicles in Q3, the Model 3 program alone could bring over $3 billion in revenue this quarter.  Musk said on the last financial call that barring a force majeure, Tesla will be continually profitable from now on.  Trolls will simply look increasingly foolish.  Kind of like hydrogen backers.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 15, 2018, 11:03:37 PM
My hope is that after Tesla hits green either in Q3 or Q4 they remain in the green only for the minimum time necesary to regain confidence from the market, pay down a few bills and build up their cash reserves. When they are ready they should raise as much cheap debt as possible and build 3 more Gigafactories.

I'm afraid that even if the most epic of short squeezes happens, the trolls will remain. Tesla is part of the same battle as climate change. There are many people protecting the status quo by any means necessary. Fools that can't comprehend the dangers we are all in.

Has it ever occurred to you that the people posting Tesla-negative-info on this thread DO NOT HAVE SHORT POSITIONS? Do you think we can only orgasm when we smell a huge whiff of gasoline? Honestly, your opposition to our dissent makes no sense. We simply just aren't willing to override our BS-sensors for the sake of virtue signalling. It is not very complicated. What will be your thought process when us FOOLS are proven correct and TESLA FILES (might be a decent name for a future TV series)?

They don't have a chance outside of some sorta Venuzuela scenario where the stock market skyrockets because the currency is imploding
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 16, 2018, 03:34:33 AM
Tesla Model 3 | Fully Charged

https://youtu.be/4AJw9cIlatw
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 16, 2018, 05:01:53 AM
There is actually some really useful evidence about how to effectively communicate. Ironically, most scientists seem to ignore it.
boom. good stuff. I have long felt that crucial missing piece in this world could be found at the crossroads of what would work and what appeals to normal people.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 16, 2018, 05:07:28 AM
Tesla Model 3 | Fully Charged

https://youtu.be/4AJw9cIlatw

That is NOT south colorado.

HALF PRICE = $60,000 (more likely $80,000)

"we are going to go totally off the grid" says a man who is for sure 100% reliant on everything the grid provides and who lives a super duper high emissions lifestyle. boy, am i glad he gets to feel good and green!

I am so so thankful that Tesla as reinvented the door handle. I have personally found that door handles are terrible and the world is desperately in need of a company to disrupt how we open doors.

Let's test drive these things in a park where the max speed limit, is 20 mph. our model t references will be so on point (Tesla performance is actually amazing. like so so so so fun. so not trying to shit on that. just want to take a dump on the mental wattage of the average tesla-journalist)

"It doesn't have ludicrous-mode...."HOW THE FUCK DO THESE PEOPLE TAKE THEMSELVES SERIOUSLY. "oh my god. it will be the alien-dreadnought. our margins will be amazing because it will be the machine building the machine." a few months later..."humans are under-rated. but our margins based on super-automation are the same"

"it doesn't recognize stop signs or stop lights?" holy shit people. have you been in a waymo vehicle? those things are so advanced they stereotype pedestrians. "tesla is a tech company!" maybe a terrible one "tesla is a car company" maybe a terrible one

"look at the faith you have had"..."the more I think about it from a logical standpoint it is like, what was I doing"

"tesla owners are a weird breed"

 "you know there's not a great deal in it"


I don't like to go in this direction, but it is starting to be startling...why is every tesla super fan under the age of 60 a super soft beta? That is not normal, right?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 16, 2018, 11:26:11 AM
Neven, serious question: Is there a problem with us endlessly posting our disputes about Tesla on this thread?

Yes, it's redundant and tiresome, and I'm the guy who is supposed to solve conflicts (and I don't have the time).

Quote
Is there a reason we need to limit it to genuinely novel information?

Yes, everyone has staked out their territory, so there's not much use in repetitive flame wars. Like I said, the Internet is a big place. The need for flame wars can be fulfilled elsewhere.

So, everyone can post pro/contra Tesla glory/failure propaganda here, articles, op-eds, videos, whatever. We can discuss the source of the propaganda for a bit to see if it holds up somewhat, but we don't have to inject our oft-repeated opinions/rants into every comment.

Tesla will either succeed or fail. That's what this thread is about. Not about what it means for Green BAU, or whether Musk is a charlatan, or about how EVs work.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 16, 2018, 01:00:51 PM
Tesla reclaims Laguna Seca record with a Model 3 Performance driven by an amateur

https://electrek.co/2018/09/15/tesla-model-3-performance-laguna-seca-record/

Quote
The Laguna Seca lap record for a production electric vehicle has changed hands a few times in the past few weeks. Most recently, Jaguar grabbed it with an I-Pace driven by a pro-driver.

Now Tesla reclaims it with a Model 3 Performance driven by an amateur drive

Video of the lap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGLg5UE3l7c
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 16, 2018, 01:37:19 PM
Very nice, it tells us Model 3 is fast, but it doesn't tell us anything about whether Tesla will succeed or fail.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 16, 2018, 01:49:39 PM
Define success. To me success can be measured in the accumulation of small victories and the minimization of small defeats. Setting a speed record in the automotive world is a small victory?

But if you want a more narrow definition of success I'll be happy to comply.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 16, 2018, 02:13:18 PM
Define success? Ehhh, not going bankrupt? None of the things coming about or being true that all the anti-propaganda purports?

Time frame? Next 12-18 months?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2018, 02:25:11 PM
GSY wrote: 
Quote
“Has it ever occurred to you that the people posting Tesla-negative-info on this thread DO NOT HAVE SHORT POSITIONS?”

Has it ever occurred to you that I might not be referring to you?  ;D ;D ::) 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 16, 2018, 02:26:21 PM
Ok. I'll stick to the more narrow definition of success from the business/finance perspective. It's a good idea.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 16, 2018, 02:46:35 PM
Thanks, the original Car threads can be used for more general discussions on EVs and their technical specs, their role in combating AGW, and so on. This one is purely to post stuff that are about whether Tesla will make it or not, which I think, was the main point of contention causing all the anger and strife.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 16, 2018, 02:57:43 PM
I don't think that is the main point of contention Neven. I think this is more climate change denial related than it is stock market related. Surely the financial incentive of shorts interests made matters worse, but the shorts are victims of climate change deniers deceit too.

Regardless of the financial outcome the contention will remain. Change ain't easy.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 16, 2018, 03:17:04 PM
Both glories and failures discussed here.

James Anderson: ‘vicious’ short sellers are Tesla’s big problem, not Elon Musk

http://m.citywire.co.uk/money/james-anderson-vicious-short-sellers-are-tesla-s-big-problem-not-elon-musk/a1154739

Quote
Tesla shares – in which Baillie Gifford held a 7.8% stake and which accounted for 5% of Scottish Mortgage assets – have plunged in the month since Musk proposed taking the company private in a $420 per share buyout. Nonetheless, Anderson blames the ‘malignant’ influence of short-sellers hoping to profit from Tesla’s demise and a negative media for the bulk of the company’s woes.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on September 16, 2018, 04:11:12 PM
Why do I get the feeling that most of this thread is going to be fantastic bump trolling material?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 16, 2018, 05:47:05 PM
Musk just tweeted about an update to the Tesla Referral Program....could it be more obvious there is not endless demand for the cars Tesla is producing? Every piece of info that comes about related to Tesla, further corroborates the Tesla bear thesis. The sooner they file, the better. If they hold out for a miracle it will destroy the brand.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 16, 2018, 10:32:07 PM
I've been on holiday in Italy, just flew back into the UK yesterday and only got back to the apartment, where I work from, today.

So I'm a bit slow to this thread.

OK so, from my viewpoint.

Why is it important to show that Tesla is selling more revenue than any other manufacturer in the US?

Well, let me see, because people keep on pointing to Tesla cash flow and saying that it's going to go bust.  OK, so Revenue is vitally important, not sheer volume of cars. Because Tesla has to get over the hump of all that money invested to get the company going.

So, let me see.  The vast rise in Tesla revenues began when Tesla started selling Model 3 cars in volume.  Because the Model 3 is by far the largest revenue earner, it's important to know how this affects cash flow.  Because it is of no use having $10bn in revenue if it costs $12bn to manufacture them.

So, what is the cost of a Tesla Model 3, to manufacture (https://qz.com/1294282/the-tesla-model-3-cost-28000-to-build-german-engineers-say-and-it-still-may-not-be-profitable/), as shipped today for ~$55,000?

Quote
The engineers estimate a total of $28,000 in costs to build the Model 3: $18,000 for materials and $10,000 for labor and production

Right, so there is some $27,000 difference between the average sale price of the Model 3 being manufactured today and the cost of manufacturing.  The guys who tore this car apart are from the vehicle manufacturing business so if they don't know then nobody does.

Let us assume that the loss making parts of Tesla consume half of that money.  That leaves us with $13,500 in profit for every vehicle.  That is 24% profit.  SIGNIFICANTLY higher than any estimates so far from the "pundits".

Perhaps I'm being too unrealistic, let's say that it costs $18,000 to cover all the loss making parts of Tesla, per car.  Now we're talking $9,000 and that is still 16% profit.  Also significantly more than analysts are talking about.

Bloomberg estimates that 51,000 Model 3's have been manufactured in Q3 so far.  If we take that $9,000 profit, that leads to $450m in profit.  Less the costs of any additional equipment required to increase production and we know that Tesla will receive 3 new automation infrastructures, designed to get Tesla over the 6,000 per week hurdle, in the next few weeks.  So let us take $100m off that.  We're still talking some $300m in profit.

That is _NOT_ the sign of a company in decline or about to collapse.  It is, however, a sign of a company rapidly approaching profitability and using that money to make themselves even more profitable, per unit, in the future.

There is a very LARGE difference between the marketing, sales pitch and financial structure, of a startup; than there is with a large and well established company.  If anyone has any doubts about this, they should look at how much of a dividend Alphabet pays to its shareholders....

For some recognition of what Tesla has done, in comparison with other vehicle start up's, we might want to compare Ford (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Ford).

How many times did it take Ford to get his company going?  Where exactly did Cadillac come from?

Even better you talk about Musk and how "bad" he is for what he does and says...

Quote
Henry Ford turned the presidency of Ford Motor Company over to his son Edsel Ford in December 1918. Henry retained final decision authority and sometimes reversed the decisions of his son. Ford started another company, Henry Ford and Son, and made a show of taking himself and his best employees to the new company; the goal was to scare the remaining holdout stockholders of the Ford Motor Company to sell their stakes to him before they lost most of their value. (He was determined to have full control over strategic decisions.) The ruse worked, and Ford and Edsel purchased all remaining stock from the other investors, thus giving the family sole ownership of the company

Such a nice guy, really, really, nice.

Nice people, the one's you want to marry your daughter, they go nowhere.  Those who go places are, in business, armed with necks of solid titanium.

ON Unions.

Quote
Ford was adamantly against labor unions. He explained his views on unions in Chapter 18 of My Life and Work.[33] He thought they were too heavily influenced by some leaders who, despite their ostensible good motives, would end up doing more harm than good for workers

Quote
Ford also believed that union leaders had a perverse incentive to foment perpetual socio-economic crisis as a way to maintain their own power

Really?  Never!

Quote
To forestall union activity, Ford promoted Harry Bennett, a former Navy boxer, to head the Service Department. Bennett employed various intimidation tactics to squash union organizing.[34] The most famous incident, on May 26, 1937, involved Bennett's security men beating with clubs members of the United Automobile Workers, including Walter Reuther.[35] While Bennett's men were beating the UAW representatives, the supervising police chief on the scene was Carl Brooks, an alumnus of Bennett’s Service Department, and [Brooks] "did not give orders to intervene."[36] The following day photographs of the injured UAW members appeared in newspapers, later becoming known as The Battle of the Overpass.

Such an excellent chap.  Indeed.  He also had issues with being Anti Semitic.  Something which was actually acceptable at the time..

Quote
During this period, Ford emerged as "a respected spokesman for right-wing extremism and religious prejudice", reaching around 700,000 readers through his newspaper.[59] The 2010 documentary film Jews and Baseball: An American Love Story (written by Pulitzer Prize winner Ira Berkow) states that Ford wrote on May 22, 1920: "If fans wish to know the trouble with American baseball they have it in three words—too much Jew."[60]

Then, of course, we have Honda (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda#History).

Another of the great car makers which started up in the same century.  Note just how many times it took Honda to get going.

Back in the late 90's there were articles which were much less polished than the Wiki page of today and they told a very interesting story which has vanished in the great bit bucket of the internet.  After WWII Japan still had a tradition allowing manufacturers to demand up front payment of a product which had not bee delivered.  Of course in a culture like theirs, where Suicide was the alterative to actually delivering, this was not such a bad risk.

Had it not been for the ability to get up front payments, in full, for the motorcycles that Honda was manufacturing, Honda would never have been a company, it would have failed before it started.

So when we talk about Tesla and whether it is going to survive or fail, when we talk about how it is producing revenue and product and what the ratio's are, it is well to keep in mind that Tesla is a START UP and to compare apples with apples and not apples with a stainless steel orange.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 16, 2018, 11:58:11 PM
And just a point about the validity of saying that Tesla Shorts have something to do with the viability of the company.

If we were to believe that, then Google Parent alphabet is in dire straits (http://uk.businessinsider.com/google-stock-price-hedging-short-sellers-2q-earnings-report-2017-7?r=US&IR=T)…

I mean.

Quote
Short sellers have taken a $1.1 billion bath on their bearish wagers since the start of 2017 as the stock has surged roughly 23%, according to data provided by S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm.

Quote
But that futility hasn't prompted short speculators to throw in the towel heading into Alphabet's second-quarter earnings report, due after Monday's closing bell. In fact, they've added $100 million to positions in the past week.

That was 2017.  Haven't seen Alphabet going south any time soon.  In fact, they're still at it in 2018...

Quote
Short positions against the so-called FAANG group of the largest U.S. technology stocks have surged by more than 40 percent in the past year as investors bet against some of the biggest drivers of the global bull market.

Where

Quote
“Tech stocks have had a large run-up in price this year,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of research at S3 Partners, said in an email. “The greater the rise, the greater the fall so they are being targeted as the stocks to short

so, in reality, the Shorts are betting that the bull run of the market is going to turn and they're going to make a killing.

It has not one single thing to do with the health of the company.  It has to do with gambling.

If you were to believe the shorts, then Alibaba, Amazon, Apple and Netflix are in danger of collapsing.... 

So, having established that shorts are not a reliable measure for the health of a company, we can go back to financial health and cash flow.  The results of which we won't know until next month.

As Neven says.  Employ some patience and all will be revealed.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 17, 2018, 12:10:51 AM
Musk just tweeted about an update to the Tesla Referral Program....could it be more obvious there is not endless demand for the cars Tesla is producing? Every piece of info that comes about related to Tesla, further corroborates the Tesla bear thesis.
Really? What was the update? I assume Tesla is enhancing the program in a desperate bid to attract some new buyers? At least you make it sound that way. Or maybe you haven't checked the details?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on September 17, 2018, 12:26:40 AM
Musk just tweeted about an update to the Tesla Referral Program....could it be more obvious there is not endless demand for the cars Tesla is producing? Every piece of info that comes about related to Tesla, further corroborates the Tesla bear thesis.
Really? What was the update? I assume Tesla is enhancing the program in a desperate bid to attract some new buyers? At least you make it sound that way. Or maybe you haven't checked the details?

https://electrek.co/2018/09/16/tesla-ending-free-unlimited-supercharging-era/

Quote
New Model S, Model X, and Model 3 Performance buyers still have a chance to get free unlimited Supercharging for the lifetime of their ownership by ordering before the end of the day with a referral code.

After that, the referral program will give $100 of Supercharging credit to new buyers, which is a major drop in value from the unlimited free Supercharging for the lifetime ownership of the car.

Tesla has been talking about ending the valuable referral incentive for years now, but it looks like this time is the one.

CEO Elon Musk even tweeted the deadline last night:

Obviously selling so badly that withdrawing a benefit will entice new orders ??????
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 17, 2018, 05:41:42 AM
GLORY SECURED

Musk tweets, "This ends midnight California time. Not coming back."

Sounds like the type of BS that is common from used car companies or a furniture warehouse.

He also took to twitter to respond to the myriad of repair delay issues. And told a BLATANT LIE about it being the fault of small shops and thus Tesla will be bringing everything in house. When immediately ppl called him out about the issue being Tesla's inability to provide parts, Musk backpeddled just a bit with a deflection.

When you start publicly telling obvious lies totally unsolicited AND are pushing sales with "TODAY ONLY" bullshit for a product for which you claim to have endless demand, the end is nigh. Put options look pretty cheap.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on September 17, 2018, 02:14:05 PM
Who buys a car in 24 hours? If the deadline was to attract new buyers then they would have given a few weeks notice. It was going to end sometime. Doing it this way with just 24 hours notice makes it look like they are being ordered well enough to me. Obviously some people biases are making them see what they want to see.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 17, 2018, 02:40:38 PM
Quote
Who buys a car in 24 hours?

Remember that Tesla sells their cars online. People that might have considered buying a Tesla for a while may be swayed by the prospect free fuel for the life of the vehicle. A twit like that might be worth a few hundreds, maybe thousands of sales. He has 22 million followers.

I like companies where the CEO's try to sell their products. Obviously, not everyone agrees.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on September 17, 2018, 03:24:37 PM
Quote
Who buys a car in 24 hours?

Remember that Tesla sells their cars online. People that might have considered buying a Tesla for a while may be swayed by the prospect free fuel for the life of the vehicle. A twit like that might be worth a few hundreds, maybe thousands of sales. He has 22 million followers.

I like companies where the CEO's try to sell their products. Obviously, not everyone agrees.

Interesting freudian slip calling it a twit rather than a tweet!

Yes, some thinking about it might complete before deadline. But would more get the chance to complete before deadline if it was announced 2 weeks before and 1 week before and 1 day before rather than just the single one day before tweet. The approach taken is clearly not trying to sell cars. It suggests they are selling well enough than a benefit that was always going to be withdrawn can be withdrawn and they don't need to resort to pressure tactics to get people to sign up.

I prefer companies that don't have to resort to pressure sales tactics, therefore this seems good about Tesla.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 04:12:37 PM
Published August 1:  Free supercharging with purchase ends Sept 16.

Tesla will limit free supercharging for orders after September 16th
Quote
Tesla’s referral program was set to finish tonight, but, as they’ve done many times before, instead it got a midnight update extending it for a little while longer.  The program now goes through September 16th instead of July 31st
https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-adds-free-supercharging-for-model-3-performance-to-referral-program-extends-program-to-september-16/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 17, 2018, 05:59:11 PM
ya, the program ending has been planned for a while. duh. my point is, when the CEO starts telling clear lies and has a sales strategy that has regressed to one step above spinning a sign on the street corner, the end is nigh.

and it is not like this is isolated. executives who have anything to do with finance are quitting at an alarming rate. executive in general are leaving at a troubling rate. honestly, what are the odds that a revolutionary company in the year before it crosses into true mass production and profitability would have half of its executive leave unless something was truly wrong?

and they take money from people without delivery the product, and they delay in refunding people, and they can't make parts for repairs, and they blame all these problems on other people. their bonds a super junk. they can't raise capital. the need an enormous amount of capital to do half the things they claim are in the pipe line. the charade is about up. 6 months from now, tesla bulls will be like  :o >:( :-X who could have seen this coming? damn shorts ruined everything.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 07:25:31 PM
Moreover, incumbent auto makers will help “validate and expand the existing market for electric cars” rather than hampering Tesla with their own electric-vehicle launches, the analysts said.

Tesla has ‘no credible competition,’ analyst says
Quote
Tesla Inc. faces no competition at present, and when it does it will be able to hold its own, analysts at Bernstein said in a note Monday.

And all the hand-wringing about potential rivals for its electric cars glosses over Tesla’s greatest long-term competitive advantage: its “unparalleled brand,” they said.

The rise of competitors by traditional auto makers is often at the heart of a bear case for Tesla.

“But let’s make this clear: there is no actual flood of competition coming,” the analysts, led by Toni Sacconaghi, said. “We tallied up every announced electric vehicle arriving in the U.S. between now and 2022, and the results were stark.”  The Model 3, which the analysts expect will account for 70% of Tesla’s revenues within two years, “faces no credible competition whatsoever until 2020,” or until Volvo  launches its all-electric Polestar 2 sedan, they said.

The Model S luxury sedan and the Model X luxury SUV will only face two competitors – the Audi Etron Quattro and the Jaguar I-Pace – up until 2020, the analysts said.

The analysts also demolished a case for General Motors Co.’s Chevy Bolt being a competitor for the Model 3.
“While matching the range and price point of the Model 3, the Bolt arguably remains a lower-end car, without the luxury nameplate, the styling, the performance, or even the electronics offered by Tesla,” they said. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-has-no-credible-competition-analyst-says-2018-09-17
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 08:31:51 PM
Tesla has ‘no credible competition,’ analyst says
Maybe, maybe not.
...

Thanks for the refs.  Without question, volume EV production in China will exceed any other country.  However, they will not threaten the market in Europe and the U.S. due to quality and safety concerns.  Even OEMs like GM and Nissan admit their EVs for the China market will not be available elsewhere for some time.  Higher quality EVs from established and other, new automakers are on the way, but won’t be available for a few years yet, as my “no competition” article confirms.  By 2020, Tesla will be making a million EVs a year (including those from its China factory, where demand for Tesla cars is so great that the company could raise its prices to cover the new tariffs — while other companies could not, for fear of losing market share).

The market for EVs is growing fast!  There is plenty of room for all entrants.  But the Tesla brand is years ahead of others, and will remain a highly-desired product for years to come.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on September 17, 2018, 08:56:56 PM
again:

- expert ?

- analyst ?

- etc. etc. all the same

question:

Qui Bono ?

analyst is not even an official title, everyone can call himself an analyst and those who are commonly know as "analysts" are mostly working for banks and financial institutions.

do i have to say more ? "Qui Bono?" of course all the banks and investors who are
at risk to loose either a lot of money, a dream, or both, do everything to keep public
opinion high until they were able to sell many of their investments before the crash

i'm a bit surprised that such assessments from such people are brought up here as
an argument after the very same people often post directly or indirectly agains that
exact system of a few hyper-wealthy groups and individuals (puppet players) who
are permanently fooling the majority to either gain or keep their various privileges.

it's simply too much work and everyone can look it up himself but my list of even much better
EVs and/or hyprids has grown very large recently.

and yes, i know that a hybrid is not an Full-EV but then the same people who will argue like that after this post are the same who usually count hybrids to the good (better) side of the spectrum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_cars_currently_available

add those who are in production now but not on sale yet and watch the to be expected quality as well as the background ( history of auto-making and reputation tech-wise)

further not many are saying anything agains tesla CARS but about tesla's management and outlook to survive and there were other car-makers who built famously sophisticated cars but went down the river because of management errors.

tesla will not fail because of the cars they produce, their cars are way good enough, i really like tesla cars, am even a kind of fan so to say, but the question is whether tesla will survive as a company and with that i mean in it's current and independent form and become profitable.

further how many small investors and owners will eventually loose most of their investment after the big players, thanks to such "analysis" LOL will have brought their part into safer heavens.

i say, NO because management sucks and only because a guy had the luck once have started a
business that was at the right time and with all things just ready to go, does not make that person a good manager.

last but not least that once-startup was quickly sold when management got more demanding due to size, customer base and legal obligations.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 17, 2018, 08:59:09 PM
Elon is sued by "that pedo guy" in two jurisdictions.


https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/cave-rescuer-sues-elon-musk-pedophile (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/cave-rescuer-sues-elon-musk-pedophile)

Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 17, 2018, 09:32:22 PM
Guys, please, less opinions (or if you absolutely have to, keep it short) and more news/articles on anything related to Tesla glory/failure.

Open a Musk thread for the pedo stuff and smoking weed, for all I care.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 09:42:12 PM
again:

- expert ?

- analyst ?

- etc. etc. all the same
...

Tesla remains a very polarizing company! ;) You will find “expert” and “analyst” opinions claiming the whole range from very negative to very positive.  Some stock analysts switch back and forth between those views — just to generate more trading fees from the churn, I think.  So yes, you can find “analyst” examples pro and con. 

  What more objective analysis is there than to add up published reports of related product production announced for the next few years, and comparing that to Tesla’s?


Consider:

Tesla is no longer a “niche” product.  Back in 2013, bears insisted that after the early demand was filled, Model S sales “will be greatly diminished.”  Yet here we are in 2018 selling over 50k/yr of them. 

https://twitter.com/zdriver4/status/1041749906879176705

Now the same argument is being made against the more affordable Model 3.  You may recall that until a few months ago, Tesla was “anti-selling” the Model 3:  upselling to the Model S because Model 3 could not be made fast enough.  There was also a risk that the less expensive Model 3 would steal sales from the Model S, but has not occurred.  In fact, once the more expensive dual motor TM3 versions became available, they quickly became the top-selling versions of the car.

Quote
While discussing the demand for the Model 3, Tesla’s worldwide head of sales Robin Ren noted that since offering the higher-end versions of the Model 3, the company has started seeing “more orders for the All-Wheel Drive Dual Motor car and performance cars combined than the rear wheel drives.”

Tesla is preparing for what could very well be yet another record quarter for its latest and most disruptive vehicle to date. In an email to employees, Elon Musk noted that the company is “about to have the most amazing quarter in (its) history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as (it) did last quarter.”
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-durability-test-road-simulator/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 17, 2018, 09:47:59 PM
Guys, please, less opinions (or if you absolutely have to, keep it short) and more news/articles on anything related to Tesla glory/failure.

Open a Musk thread for the pedo stuff and smoking weed, for all I care.

I understand the notion, but the 420/pedo stuff has shown to be able to change the combined global market-cap of EV companies by up to 5%. That HAS to be significant. Also, this is "Tesla glory/failure"....do we really need to further parse this thread. Musk is CEO, Chairman, #1 shareholder, and quite naturally the face of the company. May we fight in peace? (if not, you're the boss, but like PLEASE?)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 17, 2018, 10:03:29 PM
Okay, you have point. I take it back. Negative stuff about Musk can go in here as well, as it seems to affect stock prices.  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 10:26:09 PM
Okay, you have point. I take it back. Negative stuff about Musk can go in here as well, as it seems to affect stock prices.  ;D

Just about any FUD affects Tesla stock prices these days, even completely false or misleading items.  Like, “Buyers only given 24 hours notice that free supercharging is going away!” 
“Tesla parking lots are full!” 
“Tesla parking lots are empty!” 
::)

Edit: links

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172972.html#msg172972

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172985.html#msg172985

Edit: (see the replies)
https://twitter.com/urdeep/status/1041141513256726528
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 17, 2018, 10:29:13 PM
Yup, that's what this thread is for.  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 17, 2018, 10:34:15 PM

Just about any FUD affects Tesla stock prices these days, even completely false or misleading items.  Like, “Buyers only given 24 hours notice that free supercharging is going away!” 
“Tesla parking lots are full!” 
“Tesla parking lots are empty!” 

::)

Literally no one has said any of these things. Don't let Musk's penchant for deceit and lies rub off on you.

Can you inform me as to what any the completely false items about Tesla being pushed are? I doubt it. Juxtapose that to the list of hundreds of completely false statement Musk has made... ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 17, 2018, 10:40:16 PM
Can you inform me as to what any the completely false items about Tesla being pushed are? I doubt it. Juxtapose that to the list of hundreds of completely false statement Musk has made... ;D

That's what this thread is all about! Give the juxtaposition some time.  ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 10:41:58 PM

Just about any FUD affects Tesla stock prices these days, even completely false or misleading items.  Like, “Buyers only given 24 hours notice that free supercharging is going away!” 
“Tesla parking lots are full!” 
“Tesla parking lots are empty!” 

::)

Literally no one has said any of these things. Don't let Musk's penchant for deceit and lies rub off on you.
...

Wow.  Your circle of information must be quite small.  Tesla fans put up with this on a daily basis.

Please see the edits to my post for links.

Here:

Edit: links

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172972.html#msg172972

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172985.html#msg172985

Edit: (see the replies)
https://twitter.com/urdeep/status/1041141513256726528
(PS: Congrats to all the new Model 3 owners near Toronto!)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 11:29:19 PM
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
9/17/18, 4:59 PM
Due to some Tesla owners encountering system issues yesterday, the free Supercharging referral program will be extended until tomorrow night
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1041793769106853888
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 18, 2018, 12:39:00 AM
holy cow, thats the best you can do. those links from ASIF in no way corroborate your claims and I don't even comprehend what the twitter link is about.

How about this: HyperChange TV, one of the top Tesla Fanbois youtube channels came out with a video today. The main prettyfanboi had Ross Gerber on as a guest (he is one of the most prominent and outspoken Tesla bulls). The video consists of them driving around feeling cool and talking about nonsense like the classic "why fundamentals don't matter". But the real crux of the whole thing come at 18:00 when Gerber says, "70% of emissions for climate is from cars."

Tesla Bulls have convinced themselves that they are on the side of goodness and the other side is evil, and facts don't matter. It's a very Muskian approach: Total disregard for reality...say whatever it is that bolsters your position...the weak minded will buy it. Really pisses me off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtd3yr6OjzI&t=1459s
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 18, 2018, 12:48:04 AM
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
9/17/18, 4:59 PM
Due to some Tesla owners encountering system issues yesterday, the free Supercharging referral program will be extended until tomorrow night
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1041793769106853888

ROFL!!!!!!!!!! Blahahaha. When the "ends tonight!!!" marketing gimmick doesn't gin up enough revenue to remain solvent, there is only one option.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 18, 2018, 12:50:17 AM
Okay, you have point. I take it back. Negative stuff about Musk can go in here as well, as it seems to affect stock prices.  ;D


Thanks
I believe Tesla & Musk will rise or fall together.


Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 18, 2018, 01:06:23 AM
Saw my first Tesla ~3 weeks ago. I'm about 40 min. West of Pearson Airport so I'll keep my eyes open and report what I've seen.
I still haven't checked the charger up the road to see if it's for Teslas, but I'll try to swing by there this evening.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on September 18, 2018, 06:48:46 AM
Coverdrive on Seeking Alpha has an estimate up for a $236M GAAP-adjusted loss for Q3. His estimates have been pretty accurate. FT is around -$220M under a more rosy scenario. At any rate, we're still talking about a high rate of cash burn and far from being profitable.

This shouldn't be surprising given the poor gross margins they're getting over the past two years or so.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 18, 2018, 10:30:14 AM
Anyone knows of a link to the full article?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 18, 2018, 12:47:57 PM
Betting Against Tesla: Short-Sellers Make Their Case

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/business/tesla-stock-shorts.html

4 Reasons they give

Quote
1. The stock is overvalued
2. The company is burning through cash
3. Elon Musk does not inspire confidence
4. There are questions about demand for Tesla's cars.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 18, 2018, 01:17:07 PM
My rebuttal:

1. The stock is overvalued

If they didn't think that the stock was overvalued they wouldn't be shorting Tesla. This is very subjective because the future value of Tesla is reflected on the stock price. We all know how the future is a bit hard to predict.

2. The company is burning through cash

I think that building two factories, thousands of stores worldwide, a super charger network and designing a brand new electric car is a very good investment of cash. One that will pay off in many ways.

3. Elon Musk does not inspire confidence

I readily admit that the delays in Model 3 production are costly and dangerous for the company.  However, there is very good progress. Considering the difficulty of the task, the risk of the task and the possible rewards I feel very hopeful about Elon and Tesla. I do wish that he delegated more. A COO would make Tesla stronger. A President of Automotive was a good start.

4. There are questions about demand for Tesla's cars.

There are questions? There are always questions. In the case of the demand for Tesla the numbers speak for themselves. Refer to Sigmetnow Tesla comparison charts for the best evidence for demand... sales.

Then check reviews of Tesla cars. People that have them love them. The competition is indeed coming, partly because Tesla EV's are gnawing at their sales, but it is still a year away.

In the short-medium term it helps Tesla if automotive leaders of the world follow the path Tesla trail blazed for EV's.

I think the biggest competition for Tesla will be the lower end vehicle markets. I think Nissan will dominate that segment.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2018, 04:09:26 PM
Elon Musk sued by British rescue diver he called a ‘pedo’ and ‘rapist’ on Twitter
 17 Sep, 2018

For a lousy 75,000 bucks. He was really dumb to sue in the USA, unless he is in a "no win, no fee contract with his lawyer.

It would not surprise me if California says Musk is "Not Guilty, and the Old Bailey says "Guilty". See below (in the UK the defendant has to prove that what he said was correct - malicious intent merely adds to the damages paid, does not influence the guilty or not guilty verdict)

From The BBC

Mr Unsworth filed the suit in California. A separate suit will follow in London, the filing says.

How defamation works in the US
by Clive Coleman, BBC legal correspondent
Quote
The first amendment of the United States Constitution which protects free speech makes defamation a challenging legal action to bring.

A plaintiff (the person bringing the case) has to prove the statement made about them is false and that it has caused them material harm.

However, the toughest hurdle is that if the person bringing the case is regarded as a public figure - and 'public figure' is given a pretty wide interpretation - it has to be proved that the defendant acted maliciously.

In other words that the person making the statement knew it to be false and went on to make it.

The market gives diddly squat about it. The TESLA share price has been quietly picking up towards £300, probably as they are flogging more wheels and other stuff. The market has not punished TESLA for making a pig's ear of their vehicle delivery system.

Will Musk ever learn to delegate? About as likely as Trump to moderate his behaviour, methinks.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2018, 05:19:35 PM
ValueAnalyst responds to the skeptics quoted in the NYT article:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1041865556595560448.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 18, 2018, 06:06:41 PM
Watch the market!

$20.00 n 20 min. as the DOJ announces criminal probe re. Musk's tweets/statements.

https://twitter.com/business?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

I generally ignore the market, but this was a stiff jolt.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2018, 06:54:57 PM
Ellec (@ellec_uk) 9/18/18, 12:30 PM
Stock above $300 cue a big orchestrated FUD attack and a massive sell order right at the momemt the news broke. $tsla
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1042088406313050117

Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 9/18/18, 12:12 PM
The government will try to prove Elon never wanted to go private and it was a fraud. That seems like a very steep hill to climb. I get SEC and a fine. But the Saudis just raised $11 bil in a bond. Bought 5% of Tesla and Lucid. Blah blah. #tesla $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1042084063878701056

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)
9/18/18, 11:22 AM
50 days until $TSLA shorts wake up ⏳
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1042071356618301440


Edit:  Tesla’s statement (my emphasis) — confirms it’s just FUD, timed to shock the market:
Last month, following Elon’s announcement that he was considering taking the company private, Tesla received a voluntary request for documents from the DOJ and has been cooperative in responding to it. We have not received a subpoena, a request for testimony, or any other formal process. We respect the DOJ’s desire to get information about this and believe that the matter should be quickly resolved as they review the information they have received.”
https://electrek.co/2018/09/18/tesla-tsla-now-reportedly-under-a-criminal-probe-over-elon-musks-take-private-comments/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2018, 07:05:07 PM
Quote
UBS says the model 3 can’t be profitable at 35k and $TSLAQ rejoices, sings the praises of UBS.

Audi unveils the e-tron and is loved so much by bears that there are marriage proposals

Now UBS says the Audi only shows how far behind other car makers are from #Tesla
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1042034374844272641

UBS says Audi's new electric car shows industry has a long way to go to catch Tesla
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/companies/ubs-says-audis-new-electric-car-shows-industry-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-tesla/ar-BBNuRv8

Their statement of “no demand” is laughable in light of the tens of thousands of sales just last month in North America — before opening to global sales, advertising, or even availability of the $35k version of the car!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2018, 11:36:59 PM
Whoops:- The "Musk Effect" not always +ve. DOJ enquiry started.
The shares dropped from just over 300 to just under 280 and then came back to 285.
Much more of this and they will dump him as Chairman/ CEO.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/18/tesla-investigation-elon-musk-tweets-reports

Tesla under investigation by US justice department after Elon Musk tweets
Shares drop 7% on news DoJ has begun criminal inquiry
Musk tweeted ‘funding secured’ over take-private plan

Quote
More bad news is piling up for Elon Musk, the billionaire founder of the electronic car company Tesla. Tesla is now under investigation by the US justice department over statements the company and Musk made last month.

Bloomberg first reported the DoJ has opened a criminal inquiry into statements Musk made about plans to take the troubled car company private. Tesla’s shares dropped over 7% on the news, which was confirmed by the company.

Tesla’s value has fallen by almost a third since his initial tweets, wiping nearly $18bn off the value of the company.

The investigation comes on top of a civil investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and lawsuits from investors.

Tesla said in a statement: “Last month, following Elon’s announcement that he was considering taking the company private, Tesla received a voluntary request for documents from the DoJ and has been cooperative in responding to it.

“We have not received a subpoena, a request for testimony, or any other formal process. We respect the DoJ’s desire to get information about this and believe that the matter should be quickly resolved as they review the information they have received.”
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 19, 2018, 08:14:40 AM


Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 9/18/18, 12:12 PM
The government will try to prove Elon never wanted to go private and it was a fraud. That seems like a very steep hill to climb. I get SEC and a fine. But the Saudis just raised $11 bil in a bond. Bought 5% of Tesla and Lucid. Blah blah. #tesla $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1042084063878701056

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)
9/18/18, 11:22 AM
50 days until $TSLA shorts wake up ⏳
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1042071356618301440

How can you quote a Ross Gerber tweet?!? I just posted a video and gave the time of him claiming that 70% of emissions come from cars. This is so off it is insane. He hasn’t corrected himself. Tesla bulls are depraved and fit any information to fit their pro-Tesla view. You ppl need help. This is a mental disorder we are dealing with. I understand, we face really tough challenges. It is plenty to drive any person nuts. Reject the sweet siren call of absurd solutions. Or at least buy some put options and you’ll be able to dry your tears with dollars.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 19, 2018, 08:27:47 AM
You ppl need help. This is a mental disorder we are dealing with.

Nope, it's called human nature. You have the same mental disorder, but are not aware of it. Stop projecting.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 19, 2018, 09:14:12 AM
You ppl need help. This is a mental disorder we are dealing with.

Nope, it's called human nature. You have the same mental disorder, but are not aware of it. Stop projecting.

You ppl need help. This is a mental disorder we are dealing with.

Nope, it's called human nature. You have the same mental disorder, but are not aware of it. Stop projecting.

You are kinda right. We are all super similar. But we develope vastly different habits. That being said, I don’t go on public forums are accidentally shill for nonsense which is easily discernible. Will you say “sorry for the sceptisism, you were super right” if Tesla files in the next 6 months.  Maybe; you seem responable... but many are insane zealots who won’t ever change. Yet, if I am wrong and Tesla becomes a huge and sucessful/revolutionary car manufacturers, I will let everyone know how humbled I am and how wrong I was outrageously wrong. And I will be genuinely happy. And I’ll be more optimistic about many more things.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 19, 2018, 11:46:08 AM
Will you say “sorry for the sceptisism, you were super right” if Tesla files in the next 6 months.  Maybe; you seem responable...

I've never said you're wrong, only that your style antagonises and that you don't seem to apply the same amount of scepticism to anti articles that you do to pro articles. I have no idea what's going to happen to Tesla, but I hope they make it for a while longer (until the EV revolution truly is irreversible).

Quote
Yet, if I am wrong and Tesla becomes a huge and sucessful/revolutionary car manufacturers, I will let everyone know how humbled I am and how wrong I was outrageously wrong. And I will be genuinely happy. And I’ll be more optimistic about many more things.

Let's hope for the best then.  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2018, 03:49:39 PM
“How can you quote a Ross Gerber tweet?!? I just posted a video and gave the time of him claiming that 70% of emissions come from cars.“

As the very large type in the first few seconds of the video clearly state, this is an unedited video of a chat.  Gerber may have meant 70% of the local pollution comes from cars — since he was, you know, driving a car, on local streets, talking about cars — so the statement could certainly be accurate.

It’s ridiculous to think no one of good standing ever said anything incorrect or incomplete while chatting on YouTube. ::)  Or that one unclear statement renders a respected person unbelievable.  And yes, Gerber is well known, and well respected.  Just not by you.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 19, 2018, 04:34:55 PM
“How can you quote a Ross Gerber tweet?!? I just posted a video and gave the time of him claiming that 70% of emissions come from cars.“

As the very large type in the first few seconds of the video clearly state, this is an unedited video of a chat.  Gerber may have meant 70% of the local pollution comes from cars — since he was, you know, driving a car, on local streets, talking about cars — so the statement could certainly be accurate.

It’s ridiculous to think no one of good standing ever said anything incorrect or incomplete while chatting on YouTube. ::)  Or that one unclear statement renders a respected person unbelievable.  And yes, Gerber is well known, and well respected.  Just not by you.

He specifies, “FOR THE CLIMATE”.

If gerber cared one iota about the truth, I promise he could have hyperchange man add a note in the description or he could post on a comment where he corrects himself. The obvious reality is that he doesn’t care if he spreads incorrect information, as long as it is pro-Tesla incorrect information.

Does it not worry you that this guy is one of the top Tesla bulls??? There is no discussion of how it’s all actually going to happen, just a smug chat about how awesome it will be when Tesla is selling millions of vehicles annually in the next few years with the model Y and the semi and the roadster....that Tesla lacks the money necessary for the cap ex to build these models....who cares, this car is “green” and sexy...I get to look cool.

I wrote this in the most antagonistic way I could, as I do, but then edited it to be as plain as I could stomach. Maybe neven is right and I’ll come to realize it. Right now though, I feel sick with boredom. :-\ ;) :-\

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2018, 05:04:59 PM
If I’m going to cherry-pick one brief comment to be excited about, out of an hour-long unedited discussion, I prefer to pick a positive one.  So there you go. ;D

P.S.  Climate is local, too. ;)

P.P.S.:  Thanks for the self-moderation.


EDIT: more of the words surrounding the “70%” quote from the Gerber video.  “Cars” would seem to be referring to “all road transport” in that sentence.  And road transport is responsible for 70% of transport emissions.
—-
Quote
“We were discussing sustainable transport and energy. …
70% of emissions for climate is from cars.…
Tesla’s mission is not just about making money.  It’s about creating sustainable transport. It’s about making sure we’ll be here in 30, 40, 50 years.  A lot of people think that’s alarmist, but if you’re in South Carolina right now [suffering from hurricane Florence], you probably don’t think that’s alarmist.  That’s why we need to switch to an electric infrastructure and we need to have many forms of electric transportation, even like Birds [e-scooters] and other forms of electric transport.  But in the end, this is just imperative.”

“Within this [Transport] sector, road transport is by far the biggest emitter accounting for more than 70% of all GHG emissions from transport in 2014.”
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport_en
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2018, 05:34:28 PM
 ;D

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1042200353050173445
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2018, 05:35:30 PM
And for… balance? ;)  A short update:

+4 million shares in less than 1 month!

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3)
9/19/18, 10:22 AM
$TSLA short interest $10.07, 35.33 million shares short, 27.71% of float. Shares shorted are up 824k over the past week & am seeing/hearing of more short activity this morning.
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1042418678426476544
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2018, 08:21:15 PM
The bad news: Now that Tesla is finally out of “production hell,” it has entered delivery hell.
The good news:  Delivery hell is much easier to get out of.

Tesla Model 3 Delivery Push In Full Ramp Mode
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-delivery-ramp/amp/

Henry (@rocketL49)
9/18/18, 9:41 PM
Vancouver #Tesla $tsla is delivering Model 3s until 10pm everyday. Demand is insane.
https://twitter.com/rocketl49/status/1042227026856296448
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 19, 2018, 08:49:26 PM
Fact is no one knows. And people's opinions here (pro or con) really won't decide that. It's fun "watching" from the stands as the game is being played trying to guess who is going to win. Not everyone, even here, cares who wins. :)

That is very true.  Nobody does know.  Neither those who say it's going down nor those who say it is going to go profitable.

We'll have to wait for the Q3 financial results to get a good handle on that one.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 20, 2018, 12:42:09 PM
The bad news: Now that Tesla is finally out of “production hell,” it has entered delivery hell.
The good news:  Delivery hell is much easier to get out of.

Both those statements tell a story which is very different from the headline.

It tells me that Tesla is still in the process of ramping up the full capability to deliver.  Supply chain logistics is a very demanding discipline and the very fact that Tesla did not ramp up the delivery capability, at the same time as the production capability, speaks to the immaturity of the company.

This is not unusual in a start-up company.  However, Tesla, now being analysed as a fully mature major manufacturer (which it is not, yet), will be punished for that lack of maturity.

The problem is going to be that Tesla cannot just keep on fixing problems as they occur.  It has to start anticipating the problems and creating the resolution to coincide with the problem.  That is how mature companies are able to operate effectively in the “Just In Time” manner of the modern supply chain environment.

Even mature companies do not get it right all the time, but they tend to avoid the very obvious mistakes that Tesla is making right now.

Tesla set up a manufacturing capability of ~10,000 vehicles per week (designed maximum capacity).  Only the problems with that actual capacity have helped Tesla avoid the delivery bottlenecks.  It is clear that Tesla did not build a scalable delivery capacity which can ramp up or down depending on production output.  Something which is old hat to the incumbent car manufacturers.

The good outcome of this next problem is that Tesla will produce a first class solution to the problem.  The bad part is that Tesla cannot, for much longer, keep leading with their chin, on the end to end supply chain.  Otherwise they will simultaneously hit two or three “problems” which are impossible to fix in a short time frame.  A start-up like tesla can be expected to have one of these problems at a time.  Two or three, with a long resolution time, could break the company.

This is where the stewardship of Musk is a problem.  He is a problem solver and not a planner.  I recognise this very well as much of my life has been in problem solving, I’m much less happy planning but I do it when I have to.  The problem with Musk is that he has not, yet, realised that the problem he now needs to solve is the end to end planning of the long term operation of Tesla.

This is where his experience with SpaceX is not helping.  They are at the opposite ends of the spectrum.  One has extreme challenges to even one delivery; but carries very high compensation for that delivery.   It is very low volume although each delivery has a very high number of components. The other has extremely high volume with low compensation for each delivery.  Totally different disciplines.  Musk will learn, but he needs to learn it all and very rapidly.  In that, his choice of executives from the existing motor industry will help, but he has to listen.  Not Musk’s greatest strength.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2018, 01:50:05 PM
“This is just nasty — what Tesla and its wild young Model 3 are doing to the old guard. Look at the charts [here] and tell me if this isn’t wicked cruel.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/16/10-nasty-tesla-model-3-charts/


The BMW 3 series is a direct competitor to the Model 3.  It’s the second most-traded-in car for the Model 3, after the Toyota Prius.  Since the Model 3 was announced in 2016, BMW 3 series sales in the US have collapsed.

Quote
Actually, as I reported a couple of weeks ago, Tesla sold more cars than BMW in the US in August (cars only, not including SUVs/CUVs). That’s shocking — even to me. Ask 100 people on the street whether BMW or Tesla sold more cars in the US last month and I’d put some money on none of them choosing Tesla. That’s not just funny, though. It’s the beginning of a wave. What happens when those people do begin to learn that Tesla is outselling BMW in the car aisle?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/20/us-bmw-3-series-sales-have-collapsed/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2018, 02:09:13 PM
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 9/19/18, 3:07 PM
Bloomberg's hit piece lasted 36 hours
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1042490272662388739

Alex Feldman (@aija_tweet) 9/18/18, 3:15 PM
@GerberKawasaki Curious how Bloomberg waited till TSLA rallied back to 300 to post this nonsense knowing it will have a material impact on the stock. I think the wrong party is being investigated for stock manipulation.
https://twitter.com/aija_tweet/status/1042129999262887936

3Tesla (@3Tesla1) 9/19/18, 3:20 PM
Monday: @Tesla closes at $296
Tuesday(day of massive short FUD): @Tesla closes at $284
Wednesday: @Tesla should close at $298 or so
https://twitter.com/3tesla1/status/1042493552683634690

TSLA Wednesday close:  $299.02

https://www.teslafudtracker.com
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2018, 04:19:09 PM
Elon Musk must be feeling pretty good about the September numbers he’s seeing.  He retweeted this ;D :
Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz
https://twitter.com/cnbci/status/1042173012227842048


Thread extract:
Quote
28_DELAYS_Later_ (@28delayslater) 9/19/18, 8:59 PM
What does @InsideEVs know about Tesla production #s.  ???
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1042578922171445248

InsideEVs: You should see our tracker!! Way unlike that Bloomberg thingy! Ours is accurate.

28: Off topic now much do your authors get paid for market moving stories?

IEV: Nothing. We are flat rate salaried. So not a dime. Thanks for asking.

28: Didn’t think so. Well done. Keep up the good work. Can’t wait to see those #s!


28:  Ok so if you don’t get extra for market moving stories, surely you share your Tesla referral codes and all have roadsters?

IEV:  Nope against policy

28:  ;D @InsideEVs is the best.


Quote
TalkTesla (@TalkTesla) 9/19/18, 10:13 AM
Wow, look at all of these new EV competitors! @Tesla is surely doomed!

Oh... wait... nvm
https://twitter.com/talktesla/status/1042416456984612864
GIF at the link brings up a graph of web searches worldwide for the biggest upcoming, known-brand EV competitors, over the last year — then the Model 3.
It’s pretty funny. ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2018, 06:18:10 PM
”With the Model 3 getting its official NHTSA score, Tesla now holds the distinction of being an automaker whose entire lineup of production vehicles have 5-Star safety ratings.”

Tesla Model 3 earns flawless 5-Star safety rating from NHTSA
Quote
Just like the Model 3, the Tesla Model X received perfect scores in all of the NHTSA’s frontal crash, side crash, and rollover tests. Back in 2013, the Tesla Model S performed so well during the NHTSA’s testing, the vehicle ended up breaking the organization’s crash-testing gear.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-earns-flawless-5-star-safety-rating-from-nhtsa/


Edit: 
More: with crash test videos!

Tesla Model 3 gets perfect 5-star safety rating in every category from NHTSA [Videos]
https://electrek.co/2018/09/20/tesla-model-3-5-star-safety-rating-nhtsa/

For context: the BMW 3 Series, Audi A4, Mercedes C Class, and Lexus IS models… while overall are 5-star, are all rated 4-star in frontal crash ratings. Whereas the Tesla Model 3 is 5-Star in all.
Even 100 years of manufacturing expertise can’t make a big ICE engine into a dedicated crumple zone.

P.S.:  Please note that the batteries did not burst into flames.

P.P.S.:  Yesterday, a Model X was inadvertently tested for airplane crashworthiness. :o
Tesla Model X owner says car ‘saved’ them after a plane crashed into his electric SUV
https://electrek.co/2018/09/20/tesla-model-x-owner-saved-them-plane-crash-electric-suv/


And later:
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/20/18, 1:26 PM
.@NHTSAgov will post final safety probability stats soon. Model 3 has a shot at being safest car ever tested. ...
Key technical point is that the polar moment of inertia (concentration of mass around center) of a Tesla, to the extent of our knowledge, is better than any other production car. This positively affects safety, handling & driving feel. Extremely important metric.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1042827334758260736

<< This is why they don’t do commercials. “Come drive the Model 3. It has the best polar momentum of inertia.”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1042845193723105280
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 20, 2018, 10:54:12 PM
You know, of course, that crash testing is done at 40mph.

What happens when a Model S hits a freeway intersection barrier at 70mph (http://-https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/06/07/tesla_crash_report/) is a very different situation.

In that case the "crumple Zone" is torn off the front of the car and the battery bursts into flames.

I am all for the cars improving their crash test stats.  But let us introduce a fair amount of realism into the situation.  Tesla's are extremely safe at 40mph.  At 70, if you are daft enough, they can kill you.

Just to keep a dose of reality into the situation.

Yes, they are, generally, safe.  No they are not bomb proof not matter how they ace the tests.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 21, 2018, 06:02:24 AM
If I’m going to cherry-pick one brief comment to be excited about, out of an hour-long unedited discussion, I prefer to pick a positive one.  So there you go. ;D

P.S.  Climate is local, too. ;)

P.P.S.:  Thanks for the self-moderation.


EDIT: more of the words surrounding the “70%” quote from the Gerber video.  “Cars” would seem to be referring to “all road transport” in that sentence.  And road transport is responsible for 70% of transport emissions.
—-
Quote
“We were discussing sustainable transport and energy. …
70% of emissions for climate is from cars.…
Tesla’s mission is not just about making money.  It’s about creating sustainable transport. It’s about making sure we’ll be here in 30, 40, 50 years.  A lot of people think that’s alarmist, but if you’re in South Carolina right now [suffering from hurricane Florence], you probably don’t think that’s alarmist.  That’s why we need to switch to an electric infrastructure and we need to have many forms of electric transportation, even like Birds [e-scooters] and other forms of electric transport.  But in the end, this is just imperative.”

“Within this [Transport] sector, road transport is by far the biggest emitter accounting for more than 70% of all GHG emissions from transport in 2014.”
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport_en

You are seriously like a crazy person. You are willing to justify anything. Anyone familiar enough with the subject matter will realize this. I hope that’s enough of a majority.  This is by far the closest thing I have seen relative to indiscriminate troll behavior. I have no idea how the moderators don’t realize this.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 21, 2018, 11:32:07 AM
I have no idea how the moderators don’t realize this.

The moderator is pretty dumb, but smart enough to know that he cannot know the truth and it is impossible for him to moderate. And so he sets up a thread where all the pro- and anti-BS can be funneled to, until things have played out, and we can see - in retrospect - a tiny sliver of truth. If we're lucky.  ;)

Works perfectly, if you ask me.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 21, 2018, 02:14:03 PM
Quote from: Neven link=topic2406.msg173648#msg173648 date=1537522327
Works perfectly, if you ask me

+1
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2018, 10:54:46 PM
”You know, of course, that crash testing is done at 40mph.”

Then, heaven help anyone driving or riding in a vehicle that is not 5-star in every category!  ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2018, 02:14:46 AM
chris collins (@chrisccollins)
9/21/18, 11:41 AM
Quote
Here's a @Tesla spec ad I cut for fun.
@elonmusk @TeslaMotorsClub @SpaceX #tesla #specad #elonmusk #spacex pic.twitter.com/HwklAZuCQJ
https://twitter.com/chrisccollins/status/1043163246440710144
Tribute Video at the link.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 22, 2018, 02:46:25 AM
@RyanDMC

Quote
A lot of Tesla owners, including myself, would be DELIGHTED to volunteer, for free, to help with deliveries in times like this. We can't do their paperwork but we CAN do orientations. It's fun to educate new owners & see their joy & enthusiasm! https://insideevs.com/tesla-prepping-7000-model-3-deliveries-week/amp/ …

@ElonMusk reply

Quote
Wow, thanks for offering to help! The coming week is incredibly intense. If any current Tesla owners who’d like to help educate new owners could head to Tesla delivery centers during midday on Sat/Sun & morning/evening on weekdays, that would be super appreciated!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2018, 02:57:45 PM
Booming, disembodied voice: “Tesla Army, activate!”  ;D

From July:
Quote
Hi @elonmusk this weekend 76 @Tesla cars from @TeslaOwnersUK gave up their weekend to drive ~10,000 (yes 10K) test drive experiences for the VIP, media, competitors and families visiting one of the largest ICE events in the world #SilverstoneClassic - Staff from...
...companies like Pagani, Aston Martin, BMW and Porsche had to pick up their jaws from the floor once they realised we were volunteers from the official UK owners club and not employed by Tesla...
https://twitter.com/willfealey/status/1021348304653897728

——

The Tesla fleet recently passed a total of 9 Billion electric miles.  Two years ago, they were accumulating 5 million miles a day.  Currently, that rate is 20 million miles a day.  They should reach 10 Billion miles total by this Thanksgiving (November 22).

It will have taken Tesla 10 years to accumulate 10 Billion fleet miles.  Given the increasing rate new Teslas are being sold, it will take one year to reach 20 Billion miles.

Source: Sept. 21 Electrek podcast:  https://electrek.co/2018/09/21/electrek-podcast-tesla-model-3-safety-production-audi-e-tron-chevy-volt-interbike/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2018, 01:27:34 PM
Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza
Quote
Apparently, Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days. We hear that the specific goal is for the automaker to deliver 1,000 Model 3s each day for the last week of the month in the Bay Area alone.
We also received a tip that many of these cars are ready to go and waiting in Richmond, CA at the railyard.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-prepping-7000-model-3-deliveries-week/

Diana B. (@teslachick) 9/20/18, 11:13 AM
Correction, I’m seeing about four times as many Teslas on the road on my way to work.
https://twitter.com/teslachick/status/1042793831689678848
I might also point out I have seen ZERO car carriers for any other brand in 10 years on this route
(Image at the link.)

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 9/22/18, 11:44 AM
If #Tesla is delivering 1,000 Model 3’s daily in the Bay Area alone, then let this be the last time the words “delivery bottleneck” are uttered, because Tesla has figured out a way to think outside the box and can scale it across the world.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1043526390111522816
(GIF at the link. ;) )

—-
Tesla was ranked third, ahead of Apple & Amazon. SpaceX is fourth.
Hired Releases 2018 Global Brand Health Report - Company News
Quote
To bring clarity to what matters most to job seekers, we asked tech workers which companies they’re most interested in working for, what attracts them to an appealing employer, and what drives them to accept or reject a job offer. Our second annual Brand Health Report recognizes companies who have been named a top employer brand by tech talent and provides insights that help companies improve their talent acquisition strategies to better attract and retain top talent.
https://hired.com/blog/highlights/hired-releases-2018-global-brand-health-report/

——
Hey, competition, why u make bad EVs?  Thanks, though, for making EVs seem normal to your customers.
Explaining the "Tesla Killer" fallacy (Youtube: Teslanomics by Ben Sullins)
[https://youtu.be/5fW9ne9mFVk

—-
Edit:
Hilarious highlight of the day: The Jaguar dealers that had just moved in next-door to Tesla Littleton [Colorado] commented on all of the truck carriers of cars showing up, and asked, “where are you going to put all of these?” And the answer was “They aren’t staying.”
https://twitter.com/guytesla/status/1043704466174889984

Tesla's volunteer-boosted Model 3 delivery weekend is a wake-up call for legacy auto
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-delivery-weekend-volunteers-wakeup-call/
Quote
The recent offerings of premium legacy automakers have caught the attention of Christina Bu, General Secretary of the Electric Vehicle Association in Norway. Norway is among the world’s leaders in the electric car transition, and it is one of the countries where Tesla’s vehicles hold a formidable place. After the reveal of some of Tesla’s competitors from legacy automakers, though, the EVA General Secretary proved unimpressed, calling on manufacturers to “stop pretending and start delivering” on real electric cars that have compelling performance and features. Bu further noted that the strong demand for affordable, decently-specced vehicles like the Kia Niro Electric and Hyundai KONA Electric, is proof that consumers are ready to embrace EVs.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2018, 01:15:28 PM
Woot! Preparing for the European invasion.  (Test cars.)

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs)
9/23/18, 9:53 PM
#Tesla registered 7 new European #Model3 VINs (116264-116270). 4 AWD and 3 RWD.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1044042089502257152
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2018, 04:53:55 PM
These 3 Graphs Show What Tesla Bears Are Lying To You About
Quote
The point being made there comes in parts: First of all, as we know, there are costs that go into development of a product. Then it takes some more time and more money to ramp up production. Then, once production is flowing, those costs are slowly (or quickly) recouped and there should eventually be a net profit from that product — unless the product is a dud (which the Model 3 obviously is not).

However, with each of those successful products, you can (as Tesla has done for years) immediately take the product’s profits and pump them into new products in order to grow the company beyond what is possible from that single good. In other words, the Model S and Model X make Tesla a lot of money, but rather than roll in the profits of those two models, Tesla has used the extra cash to help build the Gigafactory, Model 3, Model Y, Semi, Roadster 2.0, etc.

Tesla has been pumping all of its surplus revenue, and more, into new product development and production. In my humble opinion, that is what all Tesla investors should have wanted up to this stage.

Now, the thing that has recently changed is that Tesla has decided to turn a profit across the company and then stay profitable indefinitely. Whether that shift is due to stock and brand manipulation on Wall Street and in the media or is just a natural result of where Tesla is today, it’s unclear, but it doesn’t really matter anyway. What matters is that Tesla is apparently crossing a point where it no longer has to deal with concern trolls who claim that they are worried about Tesla and its finances. Tesla can just turn a profit and shake a handful of gremlins off its back.

But aside from the trolls and big-money interests that would rather see Tesla fail, the points all of us should be clear about are simple: Tesla has made a ton of money on the Model S and Model X, money that was pumped into rapid growth. Tesla also recently crossed the point where the Model 3’s revenue surpassed its costs and, combined with S and X revenue, is greater than additional company investments, making the company profitable. The future is looking bright for Tesla as far as I can see. (Not investment advice — we are not investment advisors.)
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/24/these-3-graphs-show-what-tesla-bears-are-lying-to-you-about-tsla-not-tslaq/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2018, 07:16:25 PM
 ;) ;) ;D

Shortsville Times: Tesla unable to sell Model 3s, stores them on trailers
Quote
The [photo below] was taken yesterday on an Oregon interstate, where car carrier trucks packed with Tesla cars have caused a major traffic jam. We have received reports of similar incidents along the west coast.

According to a Tesla spokesperson these shipments of cars are part of the "7 day delivery push" where thousands of Model 3's would be shipped to new owners this week - but industry experts Dana Hull, Jim Chanos, David Gelles, Mark Spiegel, Andrew Left and Bob Lutz expressed deep concern about this approach.

According to Bob Lutz, "as everyone in the car industry knows, newly manufactured cars are first shipped to dealerships, where they are often stored for months until they are sold by expert car salesmen who know how to connect with customers on a personal level. These cars were obviously never in any dealership showroom, and this year Tesla's showrooms scored dead last 10th year in a row in pressure-sales ranking, so how can Tesla possibly claim that these cars were already sold? They haven't even hired a single car salesman as far as I know. It makes no sense and I believe the only explanation for this is that Tesla is trying to hide its unsold inventory, by storing them on trailers." ...
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tsla-market-action-2018-investor-roundtable.105308/page-1929


Edit:  This one’s for real! :o
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/tesla-building-own-car-carriers-shortage-model-3-delivery-rush-week/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 25, 2018, 12:03:33 AM
Quote
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk 
I don't dig this. Is this some special Tesla expertise? Do they really need more in-house projects?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 25, 2018, 12:26:31 AM
I'm unsure that this is the correct thread.

Trump's EPA is proposing ending California's ZEV credits.
I'm very unsure how the termination of ZEV after 2020 affects the auction value of ZEV credits today, or going forward. Tesla has been purchasing them at auction, then cashing them in to the State as I understand it, and they are presently sitting on a mountain of them.

I assume that the New EPA will go ahead with their proposal over California's objections.
Will this have an effect on ZEV credits by;

Rendering them valueless by 2021?
Undercutting their value from now through 2020?
No effect on ZEV until 2021
No value for ZEV credits once the EPA proposal is enforced?
Requiring them to be cashed out now, with whatever tax considerations this entails?

Lots of questions, but no answers. Shorts see this as favorable to their side. I see it as a problem after 2021, but they see a more immediate effect.

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/fact_sheet_-_epca_preemption_final_clean_080218_v1-tag.pdf

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/fact_sheet_-_california_caa_waiver_final_clean_080218_v1-tag.pdf
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 25, 2018, 12:54:06 AM
Quote
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk
I don't dig this. Is this some special Tesla expertise? Do they really need more in-house projects?


We've a few large auto plants in the region, but everything moves by rail. Shipping parts in, or autos out by truck is neither efficient nor the best method of minimizing damage during transit.
This is how new cars are moved!

https://youtu.be/i00Vce-vnSI

Said as a former trucker.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 25, 2018, 03:36:16 AM
Is this some special Tesla expertise?

I think they are expert manufacturers and engineers, with the tools, capacity and drive to set and achieve very ambitious goals.

I don't think 1 road worthy trailer is impossible to do in a matter of weeks with the right equipment and expertise. However, 1 trailer isn't much use. They must make hundreds, maybe thousands.

Quote
Do they really need more in-house projects?

Considering they are designing and testing a Semi truck and they have the need to transport cars, it makes perfect sense to me. I find it genial.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 25, 2018, 06:35:03 PM
It is quite an interesting read about the fine balancing act of taking Tesla from loss making to profitable.  Musk is focusing on one thing at a time but, it appears, he has finally taken on board that you actually have to ship the car before you can book the revenue.

Witness that production has slowed to around 3k cars per week.  Tesla has already hit the self imposed manufacturing target of Model 3’s to make a profit in Q3.  The next hurdle is that if they don’t get them to the customers they can’t book the revenue for Q3.  Witness the Musk style campaign to hit the target in a mad rush.

I still expect that Tesla will far exceed the analysts expectations for revenue in Q3, profit?  Don’t know it depends on how they manage.

What is much more interesting right now is not hitting the news at all.  Manufacturing machines going in, right now, in the Gigafactory, to support batteries for 10k vehicles per week.  Manufacturing machines going into the Fremont assembly plant to do the same.

Either Tesla is going to knock it out of the park and move on to even more in Q4, or it is just going to miss in Q3 and it is going to make a solid profit in Q4.

One thing is certain.  In Q4 Tesla will know exactly what needs to be done to manufacture and ship 50,000 – 60,000 cars by the end of Q4.

I am patiently waiting for the Q3 results in order to get a clearer view of just how much of a change the increase in Model 3 volume made.

Only then will we know how Tesla should be operating in Q4.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 25, 2018, 07:25:46 PM
Quote
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk
I don't dig this. Is this some special Tesla expertise? Do they really need more in-house projects?

It is just a Muskian lie, to deflect the delivery problems, with a pseudo-fix.

This is part for the course. Musk just tells one lie to bail out the last lie and confuse the easily confused. He is constantly saying this nonsense...

We are bringing repairs in house! (deflects from the fact that repair shops are not repairing due to lack of parts from Tesla)

We will be producing 5000 model 3s per week by the end of 2017! (still not even true, but it was just espoused to deflect from terrible financials)

We have 420,000 model 3 reservations! (they clearly do not have nearly that many customers. but it drummed  up enough optimism to convince shareholders to bail out solar city)

The model 3 will be able to have a high gross margin because it will be built almost entirely by robots...the factory will the THE ALIEN DREADKNOT!!! Our tolerences will be tighter than ever seen before  (total nonsense, the manufacturing ends up less mechanized than normal for 2018 and the quality control is a joke)

Check out this solar roof tile! Its incredible! (it is actually totally nonfunctional, but this is just a distraction from how bad of an acquisition solar city was)

We haven't been subpoenaed by the DOJ! (obfiscates the reality that the DOJ just piggy backs on the SECs subpoenas, and that the DOJ wouldn't even be involved if the SEC had not found serious wrong-doing)

Tesla's bankruptcy countdown should be done in weeks, not even months. I'll be genuinely impressed and confused if they are in business come new years.  Put options pay 100-1 if they are bust by Jan 1....OMFG...is the whole world nuts. Maybe I am the one of crazy pills.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 25, 2018, 07:41:10 PM
"There is effectively infinite demand for our car, and we will be building at least 5000 per week by the end of 2017, and then will increase the number gradually until we reach around 10000 per week. This is not a joke. We are a legit car company. We are saving the world. Now nod your head or be deemed an enemy of humanity."
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on September 25, 2018, 08:45:45 PM
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never

Coverdrive has a new article. Bottom line is that Tesla can show a profit this quarter on the back of a base 389M GAAP loss if they goose the balance sheet by using a massive amount of ZEV credit sales, deferments (both in repairs and accounts payable) and foreign currency exchange. These amount to essentially one-time boosts though.

Tesla will need another capital raise or two to survive due to its structural non-profitability. Interest on all of those coupons is starting to bite. ZEV credit phase out will begin soon and deferments will eventually take their toll. Even if they manage to goose a narrow Q3 profit, Q4 and '19 Q1 will likely see them heavily bleeding balance sheet red again to the tune of 300-500M/qtr.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 25, 2018, 11:56:19 PM
I wish there was a way to access this article to take a hard look at the assumed numbers. I personally think Tesla's core profitability should improve as teething problems are ironed out and as output becomes more stable/somewhat rising, so a Q3 breakeven achieved with one-time items could become a Q4 breakeven without these items.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 26, 2018, 01:28:59 AM
I wish there was a way to access this article to take a hard look at the assumed numbers. I personally think Tesla's core profitability should improve as teething problems are ironed out and as output becomes more stable/somewhat rising, so a Q3 breakeven achieved with one-time items could become a Q4 breakeven without these items.

open it in an incognito window. welcome. the article is pretty bland though. try "teslas endgame" for a far more in depth look.


Do you remember that the profitability aspect was supposed to come from super mechanization and autonomization? And that NONE of that has come to bear?!? They are going bankrupt.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 26, 2018, 12:28:53 PM
open it in an incognito window. welcome. the article is pretty bland though. try "teslas endgame" for a far more in depth look.

Do you remember that the profitability aspect was supposed to come from super mechanization and autonomization? And that NONE of that has come to bear?!? They are going bankrupt.
Thank you, the incognito tip is very helpful. I did manage to read quite a few articles detailing the "short side". I think most of them are wrong in their assumptions on Model 3 gross margins. Remember when Model 3 was supposed to cost $35k? Now it sells for $55-60k, and some of the included options cost nothing to produce (such as enhanced autopilot). I am quite sure the other options bring a higher margin than the base price itself. It's true that production hell and delivery hell increase costs far above the long-term run-rate, but I expect the increased selling price to make up for that. In Q4, and Q1 next year, average selling price may drop but production and delivery should be much more streamlined. I strongly doubt they are going bankrupt.

The original article posted by csnavywx https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never) assumes a $60k average selling price, but a 12.5% gross margin, or only $7.5k per car. I think this is a far underestimate.

Here is a "long side" analysis of gross margins. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206935-tesla-margins-may-surprise (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206935-tesla-margins-may-surprise)
It contains details of options and uptake rates, based on a buyers survey https://t.co/eaiX3Hcfq6 (https://t.co/eaiX3Hcfq6).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmgUABgX4AEqZEu.jpg)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2018, 03:50:01 PM
...
Trump's EPA is proposing ending California's ZEV credits.
...
Terry

Musk has repeatedly said that it would benefit Tesla (and the advent of sustainable transport) if ZEV credits were eliminated entirely.  As it is, ICE manufacturers buy ZEV credits as needed to balance their huge ICE sales versus their small EV sales.  And the market to buy those credits results in price variations, so Tesla can’t be sure what income they will receive from them.  Better to enforce a percent of sales requirement (like China), so ICE manufacturers have to make EVs of sufficient quality and quantity to meet precise goals.  But of course they will fight that intensely, since buying ZEV credits is so much easier.  And I imagine the oil-beholden EPA is not planning to replace the ZEV credits with EV sales requirements.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2018, 04:28:52 PM
There are many stories of $TSLA Model 3 owners virally selling multiple more Model 3's purely through word of mouth or letting their social circle experience the car. We are witnessing an inflection point in the auto industry that happens once or twice a century.
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1044646034973106176
<< Yup, our Model S household has "sold" four Model 3s to family & friends already.
     —-
So the Model 3 definitely blew up in my area over the past week. Spotted 8 on my way home from work, all with temp tags!
https://twitter.com/atokosch_61/status/1044311929286725637
(Maryland - Timonium and Annapolis)
<< You should see the Bay Area. You can’t leave the house for 5 minutes without seeing a Tesla on the road.
     —-
I assume more Model 3 out in the world will mean more Model S and X sales into families that dipped their toe into the water with Model 3 and are blown away by the advantages. Thanksgiving will be a mass eye opening test drive event as 100,000 families give rides to their kin
https://twitter.com/mr_calico/status/1044642712304021504
   —-
<< Or maybe a significant number of first time Tesla owners via the model 3 have converted to two Tesla households by purchasing an S/X.  Count me in that number.  Damned if my wife was going to be stuck driving an ICE while I was riding around in a 3.
   —-
Tesla Model 3s seem to be popping up everywhere around NYC—I counted 5 last weekend on a 3-hour drive to the Catskills. I also drove by a NJ showroom Friday night and could barely squeeze through all the double-parked cars awaiting delivery during the end-of-quarter push
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1044336591005777921
<< They’re everywhere I look! 5 now in my neighborhood. All replaced older Mazda 3, bmw 3 series, Subaru, etc.
<< Up the block is a 2-model-3 house hold. They replaced their ~20 yr old cars with his and her 3’s about 4 weeks ago. The white one just arrived home from delivery and was circling the neighborhood. Since the 3’s showed up up an X has been ordered and more are interested in the 3. [Image below.]
The demographics are all over the place. Young families with 2-3 kids to Retired couples with a classic muscle car sharing the garage.

———
Henry:  Picked up my @Tesla Model 3 AWD. Traded in my ‘16 BMW 328XI. Thank you. @Tesla @elonmusk . The attention to thoughtful design is amazing. In every conceivable way the Model 3 is a quantum leap over my old car - something even my 4 year old gets! Why can't all the naysayers get it?
https://twitter.com/rocketl49/status/1044628302168645632
Pete Clay:  I traded in my 2011 BMW 328xi when I got my Rear Motor Model 3 in May! Now it costs me $8.25 per 310 miles, which is actually free due to my 2010 PV system that paid for itself in 3 years & generates $3000/yr in profits! Never going back to BMW! My wife’s BMW is next for Model Y!
   
   —-
BMW acknowledges poor sales last quarter, but refuses to mention the elephant in the room that is stealing their sales….

BMW Caves In to Trade and Pricing Pressures With Profit Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/bmw-cuts-profit-outlook-for-2018-on-trade-pricing-pressures
BMW AG cut its profit forecast, becoming the latest carmaker to succumb to pressures ranging from trade wars to scrutiny on emissions. The shares fell the most in over two years.

(You may be able to read the Bloomberg article via this Twitter link, if you can’t access it above:)
BMW cuts profit outlook for 2018 on trade, pricing pressures
“Too many things came together this year, but we can assume this profit warning will be a one-time thing,” a Frankfurt-based analyst said
Sure, let's catch up next quarter
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1044572389315670017
   
———-
A German engineer explains in detail why the German auto industry may not survive.

Tesla, An Uncomfortable Wake-Up Call For Germany. All Hands On Deck!
September 25th, 2018 by Alex Voigt
Quote
The shift from the combustion engine to the electric powertrain has been happening for years and is happening fast and without mercy. The shift is not in the far future. It is not happening in just some places. It is not happening for just a subgroup of consumers. It is happening here, today, right between us, within all buyer groups, within all countries, and within all age groups.

The history has shown that companies without competitive products either shrink, are bought, or fully disappear. It has been like that in the past and we have no reason to believe that it will be different in the future. Some companies have been able to reinvent themselves, but those examples are rare and it was always a hard and underestimated challenging road typically triggered by a near-death experience. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-uncomfortable-wake-up-call-for-germany-all-hands-on-deck/

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2018, 05:06:46 PM
Tesla is also using rail.  But trucks have more flexible scheduling, and can deliver directly to the Tesla Delivery Centers — a vital factor when delivery appointments have already been made with hundreds of customers at a single location.  Trucks are delivering cars every hour in some places — many are probably shuttling back and forth from the railway yard, or other delivery staging lots.  The scale and timing of Tesla’s vehicle delivery ramp this month may be unprecedented.
 
Quote
Apparently, Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days. We hear that the specific goal is for the automaker to deliver 1,000 Model 3s each day for the last week of the month in the Bay Area alone. We also received a tip that many of these cars are ready to go and waiting in Richmond, CA at the railyard.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-prepping-7000-model-3-deliveries-week/amp/
     
   —-
SeattleDave (@alphaverve) 9/25/18, 5:22 PM
Looks like $TSLA got some deliveries to make. Stumbled upon a couple hundred in a Mall parking lot.
https://twitter.com/alphaverve/status/1044698806061682688
(3 photos at the link.)
——
Quote
Hey! I found a photo of Tesla's new car carrier trailer.
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1044326139227820032
[First image below. ;) ]

Seriously, though. The trailers they're building might be more like these, as it would enable Class C licensed drivers (employees) to deliver cars.
Super bonus if trailers get pulled by Tesla Semi prototypes!
[Second image below.]

——-
Bonus:  Sad and funny Tesla spec ad (Project Loveday):  youtu.be/BlWVA2Pqhe0
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on September 26, 2018, 06:06:29 PM
Quote
There are many stories of $TSLA Model 3 owners virally selling multiple more Model 3's purely through word of mouth or letting their social circle experience the car. We are witnessing an inflection point in the auto industry that happens once or twice a century.

Tesla ..... like EV's in general .... will start to go absolutely ballistic.  Below are a couple of paragraphs describing how "Hush Puppies" (the shoe) went viral.  EV's are doing the same thing .... only it will be more substantial because the coming ECONOMIC DIFFERENCE between buying an ICE vs an EV will "force people" to buy EV's (after about 2021 or 2022).  It just won't make sense to do otherwise.  The fact that you are (1) getting a better car, (2) getting a less expensive car, (3) doing something that is MUCH better for the environment...... well those things are just BONUSES.

Quote
The book The Tipping Point is the biography of an idea, and the idea is very simple. It is that the best way to understand the emergence of fashion trends, the phenomenon of word of mouth, or any number of the other mysterious changes that mark everyday life, is to think of them as epidemics. Ideas, products, messages and behaviors spread just like viruses do.

The rise of Hush Puppies is a textbook example of an epidemic in action. Although this and other examples may sound as if they don’t have very much in common, they share a basic, underlying pattern. First of all, they are clear examples of contagious behavior. No one took out an advertisement and told people that the traditional Hush Puppies were cool, and that they should start wearing them. Those kids simply wore the shoes when they went to clubs or cafés or walked the streets of downtown New York, and in so doing exposed other people to their fashion sense. They infected them with the Hush Puppies ‘virus’.

https://caperebel.com/blogs/news/the-hush-puppie-epidemic

If you get a chance to read "The Tipping Point" I highly recommend it.  It's a good read....
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 26, 2018, 07:09:40 PM
Tesla ..... like EV's in general .... will start to go absolutely ballistic.  Below are a couple of paragraphs describing how "Hush Puppies" (the shoe) went viral.  EV's are doing the same thing .... only it will be more substantial because the coming ECONOMIC DIFFERENCE between buying an ICE vs an EV will "force people" to buy EV's (after about 2021 or 2022).  It just won't make sense to do otherwise.  The fact that you are (1) getting a better car, (2) getting a less expensive car.

Swing and a miss. Like that steel factory you thought had "gone solar" ;). ROFL

0) Teslas are like Hush Puppies....come the f**k on. Seriously. Try to find less absurd comparisons.

1)getting a better car....this is detached from reality. The paint jobs on model 3s are super low quality. The panel gaps are far beyond industry norms. The operating system is prone to bugs which can render the car inoperable. The bumpers fall off. If/when something does go wrong, Tesla is frequently unable to provide parts, so repair wait times can be ridiculous. There are already many ongoing Lemon Lawsuits filed by model 3 owners.

2)getting a less expensive car....you have this 100% backwards. The average Tesla sold is almost $100k. Even the new "cheap" one sells for over $50k. AND even if Tesla did start selling the $35k version (with zero add-ons) it would STILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE AVERAGE NEW CAR!!!!

What do you think Gladwell's thoughts would be on the tipping point shown in this image?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on September 26, 2018, 07:36:56 PM
Since Musk started to talk about Tesla instead of himself, the market seems more content. Share price currently around $ 310.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 26, 2018, 07:38:58 PM
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk

Problem is, that is totally false. There is no shortage of car carriers. Musk is just blaming someone else for Tesla's problems. Same thing happened with tons of people complaining about long repair wait...Musk claims it is the shops fault and that Telsa will be bringing repair in-house, but the actual problem is that Tesla can't provide parts. Musk is a fraudy fraudulent fraud.

Side note: If you are waiting to repair your roof because you want one of Tesla's solar roof tile set-ups Musk showcased back in 2016, you should give up. It was a 100% lie. He just wanted to temporarily distract from how terrible his bail out of solar city was with some faux-future-product.  Of course, he trusted that the Tesla lemmings would forget, and boy oh boy does he know his lemmings.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on September 26, 2018, 08:05:39 PM
When looking at the demand for EV's it is always useful to look at legislation.  by 2030 there will be a demand for some 8-9 million EV's in the EU as Germany and others line up to ban the sale of ICEV's by then.  Some are earlier but it is looking like the EU will need to legislate for 2040 at the latest.

The EU, today, is a market for over 15m cars per year.

Saying that ICE is going to become resurgent and that EV orders are going to vanish is a head in the sand approach to looking into the future.  The world is changing and Zero Emission vehicles (at least at the point of use), are going to be the only vehicles allowed to be sold by the end of the first half of this century.  At least in the developed economies.

Where does everyone think that these cars are going to come from?  The manufacturers are not going to suddenly change over from ICE to EV in 2029 and the infrastructure to charge EV's is not going to appear overnight either.

Regardless of what the US does, EV demand is only going to grow.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2018, 01:47:48 PM
The Bloomberg Tracker depends, in large part, on Model 3 buyers reporting the Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) they have been assigned.  But there have been mysterious “gaps” in the range of numbers seen. Now, they are starting to appear:  U.S. east coast and Canada deliveries!  Expect Bloomberg updates soon.
Quote
All #Tesla #Model3 owners:
If you received a VIN between 80,000 and 95,000, please considering submitting it to @tsrandall's Model 3 Tracker here:
bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-…
Help us solve the mystery….
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1044923233181585408
Image below.

Quote
TeslaOptimist (Teslalytics / tslalytix (@TeslaOptimist) 9/23/18, 3:35 AM
Sweet Irony: Old Chicago emissions testing facility now a Tesla delivery staging site! $TSLA (via Reddit)
https://twitter.com/teslaoptimist/status/1043765741714051072
Image below.

Yet another sign here of the widening embrace of clean transport.  Soon, the usual reaction to an EV will be… no surprise at all.
Quote
My 10 y/o daughter’s response when I text her that I’m picking her up in a #Tesla #ModelX today. ❤️
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1042451465992851457
Image below.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2018, 09:25:32 PM
Even the bearest of the Tesla bears are beginning to admit that the company will meet its aggressive Q3 targets:

Visits to Tesla Delivery Centers More Than Doubled in Q3
https://blog.alphahat.com/visits-to-tesla-delivery-centers-more-than-doubled-in-q3-ace425d57846

”September 2018 visits are estimated based on 16 days worth of data that we had as of the analysis date. Our number likely underestimates September visits given the significant end of quarter push that Tesla is currently undergoing in the last two weeks of this month.”


Edit:
Bonus image:  “A good looking Tesla family”
https://twitter.com/cbotnyse/status/1045370467400462337
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: sidd on September 27, 2018, 10:26:11 PM
SEC charges Musk with fraud:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html

sidd
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on September 27, 2018, 10:51:45 PM
So THAT’S how they made their quarterly numbers ..... they made the cars 1/5 scale!!!!  That Elon, he’s pretty sneaky.😉
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 27, 2018, 11:14:02 PM
SEC charges Musk with fraud:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html

sidd

You ain't seen nothing yet.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on September 27, 2018, 11:30:59 PM
Tesla share price down over 10% in after-hours trading.

Those 2 words "secured funding" have mattered far more than all the other stuff put together. Some satisfaction in having said that at the time of that damn tweet.

Maybe Musk will have to leave the helm of Tesla. Depends how the SEC wants to play it.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 27, 2018, 11:46:23 PM
The securities fraud charge is the tip of the iceberg. Everything around Musk is a bad joke.  It will be great for tesla to bail-out buy Solar City. Here is a roof solar tile that works amazing that we are going to put into mass production that everyone else in the industry for some reason thinks is impossible. I can dig tunnels at 10% the cost of anyone else. In a few months I am going to come out with a product to link the human brain to computers. We are going to put 3 times the number of current satellites into orbit and do it for $10 billion. We have 420,000 reservations remaining for the model 3. I am taking tesla private at $420.We are not going bankrupt. All totally wrong.

How delusional does someone have to be to not have caught on yet?!?!?!?!?!?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 27, 2018, 11:50:04 PM
I think they are expert manufacturers and engineers, with the tools, capacity and drive to set and achieve very ambitious goals.

Less expert than everyone else who makes these sorts of things apparently.

https://www.truedelta.com/reliability-by-generation?o=2&d=DESC
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 27, 2018, 11:59:44 PM
SEC says it is seeking to "bar Musk from serving as an officer or a director of a publicly traded company". Is this typical of SEC charges, or are stiff fines the norm?
When will this be settled one way or another?

Are SEC charges usually successful?
Are there reasons to believe that the SEC or Musk will prevail?



So - Tesla, Space-x, (edit - The Boring Company, is Hyperloop a thing?), are there other companies that Musk has a hand in?


What effect will this have on Tesla's ability to borrow money?
Will Tesla require a cash infusion in the near term?
Is Space-x in need of funding to move forward?
Will this have an effect on Tesla's proposed Chinese expansion?
Does this present problems WRT Panasonic's present and future partnerships with Tesla?


Will Tesla be charged in addition to Musk?
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 28, 2018, 12:42:32 AM
FOR THE RECORD: I was 100% spot on about the 420 tweet, and many on this forum attacked me for my claims. I will be right about Tesla going bankrupt as well. Prepare yourselves for that reality.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 28, 2018, 01:16:55 AM
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk

Problem is, that is totally false. There is no shortage of car carriers. Musk is just blaming someone else for Tesla's problems. Same thing happened with tons of people complaining about long repair wait...Musk claims it is the shops fault and that Telsa will be bringing repair in-house, but the actual problem is that Tesla can't provide parts. Musk is a fraudy fraudulent fraud.

Side note: If you are waiting to repair your roof because you want one of Tesla's solar roof tile set-ups Musk showcased back in 2016, you should give up. It was a 100% lie. He just wanted to temporarily distract from how terrible his bail out of solar city was with some faux-future-product.  Of course, he trusted that the Tesla lemmings would forget, and boy oh boy does he know his lemmings.

SEC charges Musk with fraud. Maybe consider me less trolly in the future. Btw, the SEC case is as succinct as I have ever seen. It is so so so so so obvious, that even in legal bullshit vernacular they don't have to be too verbose. Soon a slew of wrong doing and fraud will come out. Tesla will go bankrupt. Those 100-1 bankrupt put options odds, are probably gone now. Sorry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 28, 2018, 03:09:34 AM
I wonder how the SEC justified the damage they might do to investors. Their duty is to protect investors but they are now protecting anti-investors.

I think that in trial the jury will find Elon innocent.

This is probably the first time a CEO is accused of fraud for acting in the best interests of the company.

It doesn't matter. Tesla and Elon must keep going. Go Tesla. 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 28, 2018, 05:17:07 AM
I wonder how the SEC justified the damage they might do to investors. Their duty is to protect investors but they are now protecting anti-investors.

I think that in trial the jury will find Elon innocent.

This is probably the first time a CEO is accused of fraud for acting in the best interests of the company.

It doesn't matter. Tesla and Elon must keep going. Go Tesla.

It is the most clear cut case of securities fraud in history. You have no idea what you are talking about. How on earth is a fake go private announcement in the best interests of the company?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: litesong on September 28, 2018, 07:41:48 AM
I think they are expert manufacturers and engineers, with the tools, capacity and drive to set and achieve very ambitious goals.

Less expert than everyone else who makes these sorts of things apparently.

https://www.truedelta.com/reliability-by-generation?o=2&d=DESC

Love Michael Karesh, who diligently & mathematically constructed True Delta into a great data platform for auto reliability. Even got some personal posts from him, as he & I encouraged posters on Hyundai websites to add reliability data to Michael Karesh True Delta's initially data-short Hyundai products. One great feature of True Delta is their quick display of data for  newly introduced vehicles & newly updated models....just wonderful.
 I am sorry to see such violently low reliability data for Tesla cars. It appears that the first built Teslas, which were described as having fit & finish problems, have been covering up deeper problems in the EVs.
 As an easy, feather footer advocate for all ICE & electric motor vehicles, to gain higher MPG (or Miles/kWhr) & longevity, it is NOT totally surprising to see these low reliability pickings for Tesla cars. Elon Musk's vigorous personality has taken the marketing of EVs (I know, Musk isn't into deep payola for advertising) in the wrong direction, as much ICE vehicle marketing has also gone in the same direction. Yes, the CRUSH-the-gas (or electric current) pedal-without real-world-penalty advertising, has delivered razzle-dazzle drivers to the world. As kid-impressing "performance" advertising has led many good ICE vehicles to early retirements & low reliability (or worse), EVs with their easily abused battery packs are already being trashed.
I would love to see the reliability data broken out for battery packs. Such packs have the ability to travel 200,000 to 300,000 miles with rigorous adherence to temperature management, & easy charging & discharging routines. Yeah, Tesla products, as well as other "performance advertised" vehicles are finding the low rough road to the repair shops, or junkyards.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on September 28, 2018, 08:38:01 AM
I wish there was a way to access this article to take a hard look at the assumed numbers. I personally think Tesla's core profitability should improve as teething problems are ironed out and as output becomes more stable/somewhat rising, so a Q3 breakeven achieved with one-time items could become a Q4 breakeven without these items.

The issue is with the gross margins. They're not high enough, especially with the warranty issues that are inevitably going to be coming down the pike (they certainly don't have Toyota-level QC and most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: RikW on September 28, 2018, 10:57:29 AM
I wonder how the SEC justified the damage they might do to investors. Their duty is to protect investors but they are now protecting anti-investors.

I think that in trial the jury will find Elon innocent.

This is probably the first time a CEO is accused of fraud for acting in the best interests of the company.

It doesn't matter. Tesla and Elon must keep going. Go Tesla.

It is the most clear cut case of securities fraud in history. You have no idea what you are talking about. How on earth is a fake go private announcement in the best interests of the company?

Oh, that isn't that hard to explain. I think short-sellers can create a self-fullfilling profhecy, if enough people think a company will go bankrupt, it will go bankrupt, especially when it's in need of external investors - even when it's profitable eliminating start-up-costs. So damaging short-sellers could be good for the lifespan of a company.

But it's illegal to manipulate share prices in the way Musk did. Though I doubt if it was a preconceived plan, i think he just suddenly thought "let's irritate those short-sellers by tweeting this" and then posted that tweet or he even believed he could live up to the tweet.

I think Musk has the problem a lot of geniuses have, he is also a little insane.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 28, 2018, 02:13:11 PM
Quote
You look up their rules and the role they play and why. But that might be too much of an effort versus making stuff up?

The U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a three-part mission:

Protect investors
Maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets
Facilitate capital formation

https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/basics/role-sec

Quote
What Jury? Why assume this is will ever be going to trial or be done in front of a Jury. Got any precedents? :)

The SEC demanded Jury trial. It's right in the heading of the lawsuit.

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rESU9sUHniuA/v0
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 28, 2018, 02:14:12 PM
  (most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).

This is false.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 28, 2018, 03:13:58 PM
  (most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).

This is false.

I'd like to see some reference as well. I haven't heard that one before.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 28, 2018, 05:02:46 PM
Panasonic - "Tesla's performance and Musk's behavior through the rest of the year will determine the future of our partnership."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/SEC-charges-against-Tesla-s-Musk-fuel-Panasonic-anxiety

A senior executive described Musk's announcement (about going private), which could have triggered a class action lawsuit had it been pursued, as "unimaginable".

It sounds as though Tesla's partner is less than thrilled with Musk's recent antics. They've a lot riding on Tesla's success. Tesla is reliant on Panasonic's batteries.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on September 28, 2018, 05:16:08 PM
  (most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).

This is false.

I'd like to see some reference as well. I haven't heard that one before.

Yep, gonna retract this. After further review, I was clearly wrong. The body work issues still stand though.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on September 28, 2018, 05:21:47 PM
Instead of paying ANY attention to short sellers .... or making a rescue submarine that was unworkable for a cave environment .... Musk should have been spending time and effort on getting “processes” straightened out at Tesla.

It’s amazing how stupid an intelligent person can be sometimes ... and it usually starts with EGO.  I hope he gets this issue resolved without having to lose his position at Tesla (and perhaps any other publicly held company ..... like a future SpaceEx IPO).

Again ..... Tesla needs a PROCESS ORIENTED person(s) to straighten out processes at Tesla.  Whether it is a COO type .... or just a “Process Czar/group” .... they need to get processes nailed down.  They should have done it long ago.  First it was the manufacturing line itself, then it was the delivery issues.  Bad processes are usually like roaches ....  they are everywhere.

And Elon needs to reign in his ego and concentrate on business. 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 28, 2018, 05:23:55 PM
Yep, gonna retract this. After further review, I was clearly wrong. The body work issues still stand though.

Okay, thanks.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on September 28, 2018, 05:31:31 PM
Blaming short sellers was a tactic used by the CEOs of failing banks during the financial crisis too:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-morganstanley-ceo/morgan-stanley-ceo-blames-rout-on-short-sellers-idUKN1753528220080917

https://www.ft.com/content/f59fdd00-93b0-11dd-9a63-0000779fd18c

The "self-fulfilling" argument doesn't hold water. It didn't then and it doesn't now. Eventually the fundamentals catch up with you and the stock is re-priced to reflect that.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 28, 2018, 05:47:28 PM
You are comparing outright fraud that cost billions to costumers without penalty to an extremely fast growing company whose products are beloved.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 28, 2018, 05:51:12 PM
Tesla's Musk pulled the plug on a settlement with the SEC at the last minute

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/teslas-musk-pulled-plug-on-settlement-with-sec-at-last-minute.html

Quote
Tesla and the Securities and Exchange Commission were close to a no-guilt settlement but Elon Musk pulled out at the last minute, sources told CNBC.

Under the deal, Musk and Tesla would have had to pay a nominal fine, and the CEO would not have had to admit any guilt, the sources said. However, the settlement would have barred Musk as chairman for two years and would require Tesla to appoint two new independent directors, CNBC's David Faber, citing sources.

Musk refused to sign the deal because he felt that by settling he would not be truthful to himself, and he wouldn't have been able to live with the idea that he agreed to accept a settlement and any blemish associated with that, the sources said.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 28, 2018, 07:04:03 PM
Ego indeed.
I think he was and still is under a lot of pressure, and the negative media got under his skin. A COO would definitely have helped. You can't run a company manufacturing hundreds of thousands of cars per year like you would run a start-up.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on September 28, 2018, 09:58:12 PM
Ego indeed.
I think he was and still is under a lot of pressure, and the negative media got under his skin. A COO would definitely have helped. You can't run a company manufacturing hundreds of thousands of cars per year like you would run a start-up.

again, this is the point and is what i wrote a few dozen pages back.

to stamp something like tesla cars out of nothing is worth to be admired and takes a certain type of entrepreneurship and personality, similar to inventorship.

but then that specific type of personality is rarely suited to run an enterprise that is reaching highest levels of financial as well as other tasks, which is why such inventors and founders should not miss the right moment to step down and let those continue who learned their job from the ground up.

my i remind everyone about the story of apple computers and steve jobs. it has been the way better product than microsoft's from day one but almost failed entirely and almost went bankrupt due to job's attitude and approach, only when the man grew up (matured) he could come back and combine his original skills with the necessary respect for management procedures.

elon should concentrate on his other edge tech projects and let more conservative managers run the tesla brand. that's all i'm saying from day one. i'm a real fan of tesla cars from day one but to develop a bias like all is good that comes from that man only because he started something good is not target leading and ultimately can kill the project and make many previous efforts and achievement obsolete.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 28, 2018, 10:31:53 PM
lol. you guys still don't get it. Tesla is a fraud, top to bottom.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 28, 2018, 11:17:33 PM
lol. you guys still don't get it. Tesla is a fraud, top to bottom.

So, keep posting the evidence, if it's that important to you. And then, when Tesla fails, people will get it.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 28, 2018, 11:33:27 PM
lol. you guys still don't get it. Tesla is a fraud, top to bottom.

So, keep posting the evidence, if it's that important to you. And then, when Tesla fails, people will get it.

the evidence? why bother. it changes no one's mind even a little. mental positions entrenched. nothing left to say. ill try not to post. i might need to start a 12 step program to succeed.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on September 29, 2018, 02:31:49 AM
lol. you guys still don't get it. Tesla is a fraud, top to bottom.

So, keep posting the evidence, if it's that important to you. And then, when Tesla fails, people will get it.

the evidence? why bother. it changes no one's mind even a little. mental positions entrenched. nothing left to say. ill try not to post. i might need to start a 12 step program to succeed.

LOL

i was wondering when you gonna give up, finally a pity because it was nice to see someone else take the heat.

but seriously, i think it's all said and stances are taken. the future will show the truth while i suspect that it will like so often be somewhere in between the extremes ;)

the tesla brand has a value of itself and that's a fact that is independent of our opinion whether it will survive as an enterprise and in which form, hence in one or another way we shall probably see the brand anyways, in whichever form that will be.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 02:42:13 AM
Initial court date in SEC v. Musk set for February 1, 2019.

The Model 3 ramp is happening. Yes or yes.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 06:01:51 AM
Initial court date in SEC v. Musk set for February 1, 2019.

The Model 3 ramp is happening. Yes or yes.

I don't have insults worthy of your ignorance and stupidity.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 06:39:24 AM
who here still believes that tesla actually had 420,000 model 3 reservations in July? if you do, take approx. 5 grams of shrooms and spend the next 6 hours staring at yourself in the mirror. you will emerge far less gullible. your welcome.

http://ir.tesla.com/index.php/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 11:54:28 AM
A message from Elon Musk:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoNjoemU0AA5Kn4.jpg:large)


"It is said that despite its many glaring (and occasionally fatal) inaccuracies, the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy itself has outsold the Encyclopedia Galactica because it is slightly cheaper, and because it has the words 'DON'T PANIC' in large, friendly letters on the cover."
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 04:21:19 PM
skipping past chapter 11, headed to chapter 7.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 04:48:33 PM
Quote
Eric (@EricSteiman) 9/27/18, 9:15 PM
I just read the SEC lawsuit. It seems like they gave Musk his Defense in [items] #17-32. They have a 0.0001% chance of winning. this is laughable and clearly handled poorly.
[Link to the lawsuit via twitter:]. https://twitter.com/ericsteiman/status/1045482008477085696
<< Thanks for pointing that, wouldn’t have read all that else.
So looks like SEC themselves mention Elon actually had ‘funding secured’ albeit informally.
So clearly he didn’t try to manipulate the stock price. >>
     —-
How much should we crucify a ceo for thinking funding was secured when one of biggest wealth funds in world repeatedly offers to take your company private, then buys multi billion 5% stake, then offers “name your terms to take private? If reasonable our fund will accept”. https://twitter.com/ev_investor/status/1045539295082102784

The ironic thing is, the SEC caused more of a stock panic than Elon’s tweets did.  Big investors are not panicking, and Elon neither sold nor bought stock at the time, so he can’t be accused of manipulating the market for his own benefit.  (Anyway, it’s rather hard to benefit from sinking the price of your own stock.)  Short-sellers are not a protected class, so they have no standing in any lawsuit..

Ellec (@ellec_uk) 9/28/18, 3:15 PM
This was the $TSLA shorts last chance to push the price below $250, they failed. The worst news is out, either the SEC will settle or the case will drag on for a year or two by which time Tesla will be massive, based on growth. Q3 and every quarter going forward is profitable.
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1045753886655606784
    —-
Quote
Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) 9/28/18, 9:57 AM
SCOOP: @elonmusk adds too legal team amid @SEC_Enforcement charges hires vet white collar atty/former Southern District AUSA Chris Clark of Latham & Watkins, signaling he will fight the case. NOTABLE: Clark repped @mcuban in his successful defense of SEC insider trading charges
https://twitter.com/cgasparino/status/1045673793023365121
<< To recap, the @elonmusk legal team is now
A former SEC commissioner
An accounting fraud specialist
An insider trading specialist

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 9/28/18, 7:54 AM
Negatives
- SEC lawsuit never a good thing
- Volatility will scare some investors
- Could hang over $TSLA for months

Positives
- Elon & Team *chose* not to settle
- Q3 revenue will exceed expectations
- #Tesla Version 9 is a big improvement
- Panasonic is ramping battery supply
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1045642854054416384

Ellec (@ellec_uk) 9/28/18, 8:42 AM
If the SEC thought the had a good case, they wouldn't have offered a settlement so quickly, it totally weakens their case. Musk will beat them in court, unless they drop the case before (likely).
Time to focus back on $TSLA Q3 P&D.
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1045654878746546177

<< $TSLA taking out shorts next week when production and deliveries come out and SEC settles for a small fine.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 04:51:40 PM
Sep. 28th 2018:  Tesla achieves Model 3 production goal for record quarter with 2 days still to go
Quote
Tesla had quite the ambitious Model 3 production goal for this quarter and it was hard to believe it was achievable after months of delays.  Now Electrek has learned that Tesla already achieved the goal for a new record production with two days still to go before the end of the quarter.
https://electrek.co/2018/09/28/tesla-model-3-production-goal-achieved-record-quarter/

—-
The number of Model 3 orders awaiting VIN assignment has decreased rapidly, and the number of buyers "waiting for delivery" is dropping quickly. This suggests that delivery bottlenecks are largely resolved. (Image below.)
—-

Year To Date, the Tesla Model 3 has outsold even the top Chinese models.  And Tesla the company is now the top-selling EV brand. Globally.

EV sales:  Global Top 20 August 2018
Models: Tesla Model 3 Superstar in Record Month
Quote
Registrations grew 76% in August, to some 172,000 units, almost reaching the current record (174,000 units, in December '17), but with August usually being a slow month, imagine how September will be... Do i hear a new record by September? With how much? 200,000? And will we see all Q4 months reach 200k, too?

This positive result is placing the 2018 numbers at over one million units (+69% YoY), with the global PEV share standing at a record 1.7% share, which still makes realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share). 

August was all about the Tesla Model 3, with the Californian maker pushing up the production rate, resulting in a record 18,300 units being delivered to customers, breaking the previous all-time record, in the hands of the BAIC EC-Series, while allowing it to finally suprpass the Nissan Leaf and hit the Number One position in the yearly ranking.

Still regarding Tesla, the older two siblings, the Model S and X, had their best mid-quarter performance ever, so expect both also to shine in September...

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the climbers are all Chinese: the BYD e5 is now #10 (+2 positions), the Roewe Ei6 PHEV, climbed one position to #12, while the Chery eQ jumped 4 places to #15, thanks to a year best performance of 4,613 units. ...
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/09/global-top-20-august-2018.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 05:21:31 PM
This all is starting to remind of when Jeff Skilling used to say, "We are on the side of angels." The Tesla cult has entered that level of delusion and depravity.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 07:50:04 PM
Tesla Autopilot version 9.0 is available now to a small group of Tesla owners, before a wider rollout.  Among other things, it features automatic lane changes to proceed on the chosen route, as well as to overtake slower vehicles.  The binnacle display shows trucks as trucks, motorcycles as motorcycles, and multiple vehicles ahead and to the side.

Waiting for traffic to clear enough to allow a lane change:  ”Maybe I should have enabled Mad Max mode.“ ;D

Watch Tesla's new Navigate on Autopilot feature in v9 at work
https://electrek.co/2018/09/29/tesla-navigate-on-autopilot-feature-v9-action/

Tesla Autopilot on Version 9: Mad Max mode, path planning, navigate, and more - Electrek
https://electrek.co/2018/09/27/tesla-autopilot-version-9-mad-max-mode-navigate/

Watch a Tesla [being driven] in Paris through the eyes of Autopilot
https://electrek.co/2018/09/25/tesla-autopilot-sees-drive-paris/


Edit: this article has a couple additional videos.  One is in a Model 3:
https://insideevs.com/see-teslas-new-drive-navigation-feature/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 07:56:40 PM

Montana Skeptic is managing a company that is funding deployment of Oil Platforms. Just one of the recent contracts he personally signed was for $60M+
https://twitter.com/skepticmontana/status/1005057081689411584
<< A week ago @shortshorterhmm exposed @MontanaSkeptic1, a fierce Tesla critic, as Larry Fossi - managing director of The Stewart J. Rahr Foundation.  Rahr is heavily invested in oil.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on September 29, 2018, 08:12:25 PM
I'm pondering why Musk would turn down a very soft pat on the wrist from the SEC and instead chose a nasty, expensive, well publicized fight.


Elon is no babe in the woods when it comes to corporate infighting, witness the coup at Pay-Pal that left him in the cold, and the later upheaval at Tesla that resulted in Eberhard's removal as CEO, and his eventual removal from the board.


Musk must have known that having the SEC claiming fraud would have a negative effect on stock prices. Is it possible that this was why he tweeted about 'funding secured", and why he showed up on the internet with a preposterous joint clamped between his teeth as he called for another tumbler of booze?


If Elon liked the idea of taking Tesla private at $420, wouldn't he be even happier to buy out Tesla at $320 or $220?


Is there any possibility that screaming "PEDO" was a calculated stunt designed to weaken his credibility - and Tesla's perceived viability? A stunt that is part of a plan to bring the price of the company down to a place where he'll be able to purchase it at a fraction of it's present valuation.


Corporate hardball might be what Elon excels at. He was thrown out at Pay-Pal, but landed on his feet with Million$. He pushed out Eberhard and may soon own Tesla.


The guy is no chump - but I'm not sure I'd want him as a partner.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 08:23:40 PM
Or it could be just principles. Some people care about stuff like that.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 08:24:46 PM
Tesla Autopilot version 9.0 is available now to a small group of Tesla owners, before a wider rollout.

You do realize that everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla right?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 08:35:16 PM
I'm pondering why Musk would turn down a very soft pat on the wrist from the SEC and instead chose a nasty, expensive, well publicized fight.

Easy answer: He would have had to bring in new independent board members and a new chairman. And any chairman in their right mind would look at the situation and realize that the only way to save the company is to file chapter 11. Musk isn't actually liquid rich. He has financed his lifestyle with loans collateralized by his 20% Tesla stake. Therefore if Tesla goes bankrupt, so does Musk. Or he is just sooooo principled....blbhahahahahahahah
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 08:45:37 PM
Quote
You do realize that everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla right?

You’ve made that claim twice. Please post the examples of these technologies and the metrics tha makes them better than Tesla.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 08:55:38 PM
Tesla Autopilot version 9.0 is available now to a small group of Tesla owners, before a wider rollout.

You do realize that everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla right?

So where can I buy these amazing self-driving cars of which you write? 
Oh, that’s right.  I can’t.  Their tech is only available in fleet vehicles.  Working in local, geo-fenced areas.  Not for sale to the public.  Not available statewide or country-wide, let alone around the world. 

Edit: Image below.  Number of Tesla cars with Autopilot.  Before the Model 3 ramp this year....
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: BeeKnees on September 29, 2018, 08:56:08 PM
Tesla Autopilot version 9.0 is available now to a small group of Tesla owners, before a wider rollout.

You do realize that everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla right?

Which is the best example of a vehicle currently on the road with an SAE level 2 system in your opinion?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on September 29, 2018, 09:29:44 PM
Quote
You do realize that everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla right?

You’ve made that claim twice. Please post the examples of these technologies and the metrics tha makes them better than Tesla.

you can look it up yourself, audi and mercedes are both having selfdriving vehicles that run on german autobahn, only thing is that they want things perfectly save before release.

BTW one of the reasons for the delays in EV production of major manufacturers was extensive testing because they have  reputation to loose. they already lost the reputation to conduct business ethically correct but loosing the reptutation to be capable to produce perfect tech could cost them way more and is much higher on their own priority lists than ethics.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on September 29, 2018, 09:32:16 PM
Tesla Autopilot version 9.0 is available now to a small group of Tesla owners, before a wider rollout.

You do realize that everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla right?

So where can I buy these amazing self-driving cars of which you write? 
Oh, that’s right.  I can’t.  Their tech is only available in fleet vehicles.  Working in local, geo-fenced areas.  Not for sale to the public.  Not available statewide or country-wide, let alone around the world. 

Edit: Image below.  Number of Tesla cars with Autopilot.  Before the Model 3 ramp this year....

the fact that one cannot purchase them does not mean that their technology is not better and more developed. they just don't want to throw out unfinished tech and abuse customers as beta testers at the risk of their and other traffic participant's lifes.

i've definitely seen audis and mercedeses as well as BMWs driving at high speed in germany.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 09:37:39 PM
They all have better technology but they won't release it ... wow.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 29, 2018, 09:42:29 PM
lol. you guys still don't get it. Tesla is a fraud, top to bottom.
We really did miss your informative and respectful posting style.
More to the point, a company that developed manufactured and sold hundreds of thousands of pioneering electric cars cannot be a top to bottom fraud. It could be a financial fraud - building those cars at a loss at the expense of investors. It could be an accounting fraud - cooking the books. But the cars themselves are real, and their buyers are for the most part extremely happy. So I recommend posting more meaningful statements.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 09:50:31 PM
lol. you guys still don't get it. Tesla is a fraud, top to bottom.
We really did miss your informative and respectful posting style.
More to the point, a company that developed manufactured and sold hundreds of thousands of pioneering electric cars cannot be a top to bottom fraud. It could be a financial fraud - building those cars at a loss at the expense of investors. It could be an accounting fraud - cooking the books. But the cars themselves are real, and their buyers are for the most part extremely happy. So I recommend posting more meaningful statements.

The cars may be real but they are extremely unreliable and they cannot be repaired. The warranty is real, but if Tesla files chapter 7 it will go poof. I'd be surprised if there are more than 100,000 Teslas on the road in 5 years. Solar City is a fraud and is now part of Tesla. Their plans for the future are a fraud. Their statements to investors are fraudulent. Their statements to customers are fraudulent. And yes, they are almost definitely cooking the books. Just because they have manufactured cars doesn't mean Tesla isn't a total fraud.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 29, 2018, 10:03:35 PM
I'd also like to see some article or whatever that claims that 'everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla'.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: BeeKnees on September 29, 2018, 10:13:25 PM
They all have better technology but they won't release it ... wow.

Until they do then its not really of interest to me, other than in news articles.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 10:44:19 PM
Quote
You do realize that everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla right?

You’ve made that claim twice. Please post the examples of these technologies and the metrics tha makes them better than Tesla.
So where can I buy these amazing self-driving cars of which you write? 
Oh, that’s right.  I can’t.  Their tech is only available in fleet vehicles.  Working in local, geo-fenced areas.  Not for sale to the public.  Not available statewide or country-wide, let alone around the world. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-07/who-s-winning-the-self-driving-car-race

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/why-analysts-put-gm-and-waymo-far-ahead-of-tesla-in-driverless-car-race/

The reason that other companies are not selling self-driving cars like Tesla has been is that they aren't as wreckless and actually want to have the technology well worked out first.

GM is coming out with a self driving car next year (and they actually stick to their timelines), and since GM is leading the world in the tech, they are to the point where they don't even need to include a steering wheel.

Below is a link which explains the situation pretty well (accept that some of the best tech is from companies that don't manufacture cars). Musk claimed to be at Level 5 by the end of 2017. But since he just makes shit up, of course they were not and still are not. TellingElobarateShittyLiesAlways

https://www.techemergence.com/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/


Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 10:54:43 PM
Good thing I'm the delusional one.


Quote
The reason that other companies are not selling self-driving cars like Tesla has been is that they aren't as wreckless and actually want to have the technology well worked out first.

Dude if they are not selling it, they can't possibly be ahead.

Quote
GM is coming out with a self driving car next year (and they actually stick to their timelines), and since GM is leading the world in the tech, they are to the point where they don't even need to include a steering wheel.

We can revisit the topic next year. Today GM has a system that works only in one car, in very selective highways that they map by hand, and the system isn't even better than Tesla at that.

Quote
Below is a link which explains the situation pretty well (accept that some of the best tech is from companies that don't manufacture cars).

Wow. Not 1 tech in that link is available today. Not 1. Only Tesla has software that can be of practical use on ever increasing roads and with more features everyday.


And that "Navigant Research" image... pffft. how can they possibly evaluate technologies that aren't even out yet? DO you have a link for that image? I would love to know how they reached those conclusions without tens of thousands being tested on the road every day.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 11:06:23 PM
Nevermind about the navigant research paper. I imagine is this one:

https://www.navigantresearch.com/reports/navigant-research-leaderboard-automated-driving-vehicles

It's $3,800 for a single user but for the bargain price of $5,700 you can buy an unlimited use license. If that graph is what you get for that money I almost feel sorry for whoever buys this. This is pure science fiction.

In a few years I'm sure many manufacturers will release self driving technology. But today the winner by virtue of being the only one competing is Tesla. The rest are still in the locker rooms testing their Tesla killer software with GM releasing some timid products.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 29, 2018, 11:12:11 PM
Thanks for sharing the links, GSY.  :)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 11:15:34 PM
I almost feel sorry for whoever buys this. This is pure science fiction.

As always, you have things completely backwards.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 11:20:01 PM
I'm the delusional one.

Dude if they are not selling it, they can't possibly be ahead.

Really, delusional one? They can't possibly think that it is not a good idea to equip a car with new tech that encourages drivers to pay less attention? You manage to warp any evidence to meet your preconceived ideas. Let me guess, when Tesla goes bankrupt, you will think it is because of Big Oil and the evil shorts? Is the SEC and DOJ part of the conspiracy against Tesla?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 11:24:00 PM
You are saying that non-existent technology is better than Tesla's technology that is used daily by thousands of people.

Read your links. Tesla's competition is all in the future. They can't possibly be better than Tesla if they don't exist. But you can go ahead and believe it if it makes you happy. It won't stop AP from getting better and more popular with every car sold.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2018, 11:33:02 PM
And that "Navigant Research" image... pffft. how can they possibly evaluate technologies that aren't even out yet? DO you have a link for that image? I would love to know how they reached those conclusions without tens of thousands being tested on the road every day.

Navigant is no joke. I haven't heard anyone question their legitimacy. Even Teslarati didn't criticize them when writing an article about these rankings. Can you point to any serious publication which refutes Navigant's findings? NOPE.

Just because a company is choosing not sell something yet, doesn't mean it is non-existent. You get crazier with every post. Real car companies want to make sure something works before they deploy it. Is that actually difficult to understand?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 11:37:17 PM
Tesla’s Elon Musk settles with SEC, will pay $20 million fine and resign as board chairman
Quote
September 29 at 5:30 PM
Under the terms of the agreement, Musk will remain the company’s chief executive but step down as chairman within 45 days. Tesla will also name two new independent board directors and pay a $20 million fine.

The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Musk on Thursday for misleading investors when he tweeted that he secured financing to take the electric car maker private. Musk had earlier vowed to fight, and the SEC had sought his dismissal as CEO.

Edit: updated:
“The total package of remedies and relief announced today are specifically designed to address the misconduct at issue by strengthening Tesla’s corporate governance and oversight to protect investors,” Stephanie Avakian, co-director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division, said in a statement.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/09/29/teslas-elon-musk-settles-with-sec-will-pay-20-million-fine-and-resign-as-board-chairman/?utm_term=.72ea8121d624

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: sidd on September 29, 2018, 11:39:13 PM
SEC announcement:

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226

sidd
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 29, 2018, 11:39:20 PM
Nevermind about the navigant research paper. I imagine is this one:

https://www.navigantresearch.com/reports/navigant-research-leaderboard-automated-driving-vehicles

It's $3,800 for a single user but for the bargain price of $5,700 you can buy an unlimited use license. If that graph is what you get for that money I almost feel sorry for whoever buys this. This is pure science fiction.

In a few years I'm sure many manufacturers will release self driving technology. But today the winner by virtue of being the only one competing is Tesla. The rest are still in the locker rooms testing their Tesla killer software with GM releasing some timid products.

The source research is pricey, but there are published discussions of some of its details:
GM, Waymo Top Ranking of Autonomous Car Leaders
https://www.plasticstoday.com/content/gm-waymo-top-ranking-autonomous-car-leaders/179730571758271 (https://www.plasticstoday.com/content/gm-waymo-top-ranking-autonomous-car-leaders/179730571758271)

"In contrast, Tesla Inc. landed at the back of the pack, largely due to its lack of engineering execution and poor partner relationships. “Their technology is behind the rest of the pack because of their insistence on not using Lidar,” Abuelsamid told us. “Also, they don’t have redundant compute platforms. They don’t have redundant software. They don’t have the redundancies they need in sensing. They don’t even have ways to keep the sensors clean.”

The study placed Tesla in the bottom half in terms of strategic vision and dead last in engineering execution. Abuelsamid added that Tesla did poorly in other key areas that would contribute to its ability to be successful in autonomy. “Their product quality and reliability is poor compared to the rest of the industry,” he said. “Their product portfolio is also limited and their financial position is less than ideal.” "
________________________________________________________________

Lack of LIDAR and redundant systems strikes me as valid criteria.  Partners might not be relevant if the development work is all in-house.  Other listed reasons for dinging Tesla strike me as potentially speculative.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2018, 11:46:35 PM
Very simple. Navegantes research is subject to the laws of statistics and economics. Because none of these technologies are on the streets their actual safety can’t possibly be objectively measured. They can test a few vehicles in a few roads but that’s it. For real world data they must be released.

Also by sales, since they have sold 0 vehicles and Tesla has sold thousands, Tesla has the best proven business strategy.

Quite simple really.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 11:47:34 PM
That Navigant study was specifically designed to put Tesla at the bottom.  Look at the categories — only three of them have anything to do with how the technology actually works!

They based the rankings on 10 criteria:
vision;
go-to market strategy;
partners;
production strategy;
technology;
sales, marketing, and distribution;
product capability;
product quality and reliability;
product portfolio;
staying power.

https://electrek.co/2017/04/04/tesla-gm-ford-autonomous-driving-leaderboard/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 11:57:58 PM
SEC announcement:

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226

sidd

So, a slap on the wrist and a time-out.  But he keeps his Twitter account! :)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 29, 2018, 11:59:10 PM
The way I see it, Tesla is currently focused on assiting a driver, and in the future looks to entice a private person to use its auto-pilot, while other companies are more focused on self-driving cars for fleets. I am quite certain Tesla cannot win the race to a full fleet of autonomous cars, as it takes too much of an investment, while it is probably way ahead in deployable driver-assist technology.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2018, 12:07:33 AM
Here’s a reviewer’s comparison of the drivers assist systems available as of Jan 2018.  (So, already outdated. ;) )

The Battle for Best Semi-Autonomous System: Tesla Autopilot Vs. GM SuperCruise, Head-to-Head
http://amp.timeinc.net/thedrive/tech/17083/the-battle-for-best-semi-autonomous-system-tesla-autopilot-vs-gm-supercruise-head-to-head
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 12:14:30 AM
In terms of popularity and market share, Tesla wins, hands down. In terms of customer satisfaction Tesla wins. In terms of the only actual test I've seen by the IIHS, Tesla wins.

https://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/53/4/1
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2018, 12:21:29 AM
The way I see it, Tesla is currently focused on assiting a driver, and in the future looks to entice a private person to use its auto-pilot, while other companies are more focused on self-driving cars for fleets. I am quite certain Tesla cannot win the race to a full fleet of autonomous cars, as it takes too much of an investment, while it is probably way ahead in deployable driver-assist technology.

Musk says that computer vision intelligence (i.e., cameras) is absolutely necessary to enable full self driving (FSD) in situations the car has never seen before (for example, things outside of a geo-fenced area).  Also, that LIDAR, which all the other companies base their systems on, is a crutch that will slow them from getting to their FSD goals, whereas the Tesla Vision AI, based on its billions of miles of learning experience (and redundant computer and cameras) will succeed. 
So many companies have pushed back their timelines because “the goal is proving more difficult than we thought.”  We will see who turns out to be right!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2018, 12:27:11 AM
In terms of popularity and market share, Tesla wins, hands down. In terms of customer satisfaction Tesla wins. In terms of the only actual test I've seen by the IIHS, Tesla wins.

https://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/53/4/1

Weird that they used a 2016 Model S — practically Stone Age technology, in Tesla time!  It does show the degree of improvement in the brand over time, though.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2018, 12:53:29 AM
Quote
Monday going to be bad for shorts, uptick rule still in force so they can't manipulate stock down. $TSLA
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1046154208532221952


SEC:  Short Sale Restrictions
Quote
A short sale is the sale of a stock that a seller does not own or a sale which is consummated by the delivery of a stock borrowed by, or for the account of, the seller.  Short sales are normally settled by the delivery of a security borrowed by or on behalf of the seller.  The short seller later closes out the position by returning the borrowed security to the stock lender, typically by purchasing securities on the open market. Short sellers typically hope to profit from a downward price movement or seek to hedge the risk of a long position in the same or a related security.

In February 2010 the Commission adopted a new short sale price test restriction, which is commonly referred to as the “alternative uptick rule.”  The alternative uptick rule is designed to restrict short selling from further driving down the price of a stock that has dropped more than 10 percent in one day compared to the closing price on the previous day.
https://www.sec.gov/answers/shortrestrict.htm

Edit: Shorts are trapped, and huge Tesla numbers are due on Tuesday.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on September 30, 2018, 03:13:21 AM
They all have better technology but they won't release it ... wow.

yes and without your bias you would understand what i explained:

there are two basic approaches, release what you have and use customers as beta testers or test until it's working at best.

one reason why german cars are so much prefered over any others is their perfectionist approach and innovation.

i only answer your post because it's so obvious and clear while in fact it's in vain.

i suspect that you are a very youn fanboyish person which i think is ok if the "young" part is correct, else any reasoning is probably lost and in vain.

you should perhaps officially join forces with the donald because he as well believes that taxes/toll will resolve the lack of quality which is the main reason why japanese and german cars mostly prevail over others.

somehow there would be so much more to tell but on the other hand your persisting bias tells me that having to choose between posting an entire library full of proof and reason agains letting go is clearly that the effort is not worth it to say much more.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on September 30, 2018, 03:23:22 AM
I'd also like to see some article or whatever that claims that 'everyone else doing self driving is far ahead of Tesla'.

since your're in austria you should have access to ARD and ZDF mediathek. there were many enough documentaries and somehow i do not fully agree that everyone is permanently asking for proof while everyone has access to appropriate proof by simply search and read.

i simply share information i've seen with my own eyes and if someone want's to question and verify somehting feel free to look it up.

dunno what everyone is doing in life but i simply don't feel obliged to use the search engines for everyone who can easily do it him/herself in case he/she want to verify an information.

thing is that german manufacturers did not release self-driving cars and as a result there is not death toll on their account.

even though i respect other points of view i'm not so sure about it about the families and relatives of those who were killed while being used as beta-testers for tesla.

similar things apply to other safety issues, i.e. exploding batteries and cars going up in flame
during regular driving. i'm not saying which approach is best or right but at least the other
one, the one with safety in mind cannot be totally discarded.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 03:30:41 AM
How can they possibly test their software in every road, in every driving situation? They can't. They must use a data driven approach to try to capture the largest set of situations they possibly can and learn how to handle them.

I don't see fleets of thousands of vehicles doing that, except for Tesla. And BTW Tesla is doing it safely. Not perfect, but it will never, ever be perfect. To hope for that is foolishness. Instead an eternal approach to perfection seems to be the right approach.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 30, 2018, 03:45:43 AM
How can they possibly test their software in every road, in every driving situation? They can't. They must use a data driven approach to try to capture the largest set of situations they possibly can and learn how to handle them.

I don't see fleets of thousands of vehicles doing that, except for Tesla. And BTW Tesla is doing it safely. Not perfect, but it will never, ever be perfect. To hope for that is foolishness. Instead an eternal approach to perfection seems to be the right approach.

They are testing them on "real roads". They just aren't gimmick companies, and so they don't have their customers do their beta testing. Employees sit in the car and let the thing drive itself when it can do so safely. You may not see this but that is because they don't spread it out all over the world. There really is no need to do so. The German companies are doing it in Germany. The American car companies are doing it in Michigan. And the tech companies use Phoenix, Arizona for some reason.

Why do you believe that Tesla is doing it safely? Cuz "Elon said so"?!? I can't find anything independent that corroborates the idea that Tesla AP is safe.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 04:02:27 AM
Quote
They are testing them on "real roads".

Yeah, real roads, but too few of them.

Quote
They just aren't gimmick companies, and so they don't have their customers do their beta testing

If they ever put software with just a few million miles of experience driving in a small subset of roads, costumers will certainly be beta testing it, whether they know it or not.

Quote
Employees sit in the car and let the thing drive itself when it can do so safely.

I wonder what sort of background is required of those employees. If it is just driving, anyone with a drivers license should be up to that task.

Quote
Why do you believe that Tesla is doing it safely? Cuz "Elon said so"?!? I can't find anything independent that corroborates the idea that Tesla AP is safe.

Because there are millions of miles being driven on AP and the accident rate is very low. With the addition almost one hundred thousand Model 3s , most with AP, one would expect the accident rate to go up, yet here we are. People loving autopilot.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 30, 2018, 04:24:19 AM
Quote
Why do you believe that Tesla is doing it safely? Cuz "Elon said so"?!? I can't find anything independent that corroborates the idea that Tesla AP is safe.

Because there are millions of miles being driven on AP and the accident rate is very low. With the addition almost one hundred thousand Model 3s , most with AP, one would expect the accident rate to go up, yet here we are. People loving autopilot.

So you are the independent source you are relying on to corroborate your idea that AP is safe. Seems robust.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 04:43:50 AM
Time will tell. V9 was just released. If V9 is dangerous we should hear about several accidents in a short time. If V9 works as intended we shouldn't hear about accidents more often than the usual noise.

Important confounding factor, the Performance 3 is starting to hit the roads. Fast cars can be dangerous to people.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2018, 10:42:21 AM
since your're in austria you should have access to ARD and ZDF mediathek. there were many enough documentaries and somehow i do not fully agree that everyone is permanently asking for proof while everyone has access to appropriate proof by simply search and read.

No, you don't get it. This thread is mainly to be used as a repository for pro- and anti-propaganda with regards to Tesla success/failure.

So, I'm not asking for evidence per se, just an article that backs up what someone is saying. I don't care if the information is correct or not. I just want a minimum of opinions, and a maximum of propaganda.

The self-driving argument is an excellent case in point. GSY states something, I ask for a reference, he posts it, great, learned something new. No need to discuss it endlessly.

On-topic: That SEC thing doesn't look good for Musk/Tesla. I thought he wasn't going to settle?

Wired (https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musks-sec-settlement-could-have-gone-so-much-worse/):

Quote
While the settlement neatly ties up Tesla’s current dealings with the SEC, the carmaker still has two more Twitter-related headaches. The first is the reported Department of Justice probe into the “funding secured” tweet, which is being investigated as a possible case of criminal fraud. The settlement here may not have any bearing on that investigation, legal experts say. The second is a series of class-action lawsuits filed by investors who say they lost big money in the market volatility following Musk’s August Twitter statements. Though the $40 million in fines will be used to mollify investors, legal experts expect the plaintiffs to push for even more funds. “Those lawsuits have always been the bigger risk to Musk and the company,” says Gordon.

Well, let's await the thing that comes out on Tuesday.  :)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on September 30, 2018, 12:39:10 PM
the fact that one cannot purchase them does not mean that their technology is not better and more developed. they just don't want to throw out unfinished tech and abuse customers as beta testers at the risk of their and other traffic participant's lifes.

While this is possible with a reputation to lose, does this work as a criticism of Tesla if the vehicles drive more miles per accident on autopilot than not on autopilot?

Just how safe do these other manufacturers have to make their tech before they release it?

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 01:57:22 PM
Quote
That SEC thing doesn't look good for Musk/Tesla. I thought he wasn't going to settle?

What my imagination tells me happened was that investors probably convinced him to take the deal in order to put the deal behind them. That is the right move for the typical business type. It also makes sense financially, in the short term. I think that was the wrong move.

I think that he should have taken it to the end. I also think he should've taken Tesla private as he intended.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 02:22:53 PM
On the spirit of links over opinion, in reply to Lurk's comments:

Who is Elon Musk? - BBC News

https://youtu.be/i7nZBJVI26A
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on September 30, 2018, 02:26:57 PM
Now Tesla has an opportunity to get a good person in the Chairman’s position to HELP Elon.  If Tesla were to be able to pull Alan Mulally out of retirement ... that would be their best hire.  Mulally was COO at Boeing before becoming CEO at Ford.  He retired from Ford about 3 or 4 years ago.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2018, 02:35:06 PM
On the spirit of links over opinion, in reply to Lurk's comments:

Who is Elon Musk? - BBC News

Thanks for the video. In the sidebar this popped up, which is also interesting (and explains my main problem with Tesla, ie not being really green, which is why I wouldn't buy one):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR4CFiuR3tQ
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 02:44:21 PM
Buddy I agree that this is a great opportunity to grow the team.

The way I see it, they have 2 options. An insider or an outsider, they both have pros and cons.

An insider would be a doubling down of what worked so far. The good of this is that fast growth continues. That's good for our chances of survival. The bad is that the risks of fast growth will continue and Tesla risk an echo chamber.

An outsider would be a signal of stability, but stability also implies slower growth. Maybe they can find an outsider who can maximize stability without compromising growth. It is very risky to bring deep industry insider because they come with a lot of preconceptions that won't apply at Tesla.

We will see.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on September 30, 2018, 03:19:41 PM
Settlement with SEC announced.
Lawsuits from investors still alive

Bloomberg not amused.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/29/elon-musk-tesla-40m-sec-case-tweets
Elon Musk and Tesla to pay $40m to settle SEC case over tweets
Quote
Elon Musk is to step down as chair of Tesla for three years and pay a fine after reaching a deal with the US financial regulator over tweets he made about taking the firm into private ownership.

Under the settlement Musk would remain as chief executive but must leave his other post within 45 days. Both he and the company will each pay a $20m (£15.3m) fine.

The entrepreneur has overseen two tumultuous months for the car company that battered Tesla’s share price and Musk’s reputation. Last Friday Tesla’s share price was down close to 14% as investors lost confidence.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-30/elon-musk-sec-settlement-he-wins-but-tesla-loses?srnd=opinion
Musk Wins! The SEC Blinks! Tesla Loses
The CEO gets off light, but it’s no vindication or relief for his company.
Quote
Elon Musk just dodged a bullet. It’s Tesla that bears the scars.

Just a couple of days after the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Tesla Inc.’s chairman and CEO – an action he described as “unjustified” – Musk has settled. Without admitting wrongdoing in connection with his bizarre claims of having teed up a buyout of the company in August, Musk will pay a fine of $20 million and relinquish the position of chairman for at least three years.

Given the apparent strength of the SEC’s complaint, with so much evidence typed and broadcast by Musk’s own hand, this surely counts as a win for him. The fine is immaterial compared to the $8.9 billion value of his stake in Tesla. Crucially, he has avoided the ban on being an officer of a public company, as the SEC was seeking.

Losing the chairmanship may rankle Musk. In practical terms, though, it’s too early to say how big a difference it will really make. As I wrote here, splitting the roles and getting someone in who can remake the board as a true check on the CEO, co-founder and largest shareholder is the bare minimum Tesla needs in terms of governance.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on September 30, 2018, 03:29:38 PM
The difference with Mulally is that he is NOT a lifelong auto industry insider.  He went to Ford in about 2007 I think as the auto industry was imploding.  As a COO of Boeing ... he understands PROCESSES.  He is the kind of “grown up” that could channel Musk .... without taking the fire away from Musk.  The question really is can MUSK allow himself to learn from ANYONE.  Hopefully ...
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2018, 04:07:50 PM
Buddy I don't know the person you describe, but your description matches the ideal candidate. Someone who can channel the fast pace at Tesla into maximum productivity and minimum distraction. Ideally someone who could offload quite a bit of work from Elon while sustaining the growth pace.

Most important, someone who understand and 100% believes in the mission. To accelerate the advent of the electric car. Also someone who understands the threat of climate change.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2018, 04:49:44 PM
Somebody at the @SEC_News has a sense of humor with the timing of this announcement.  ;D
Image below.
Quote
Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) 9/29/18, 7:17 PM
This deal that Musk signed is the one that I said would gun the stock of $TSLA.. So that's what will happen ...
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1046177048392273920
<< Jim said on TV Friday if Musk takes this deal the shorts would be crushed-[TSLA stock price would rocket up to] $350 or more

Elon is unphased by SEC action; and production news is amazing.
Quote
Elon Musk: "Ignore all distractions...and we will be victorious." $TSLA
https://twitter.com/dimas_______/status/1045889968634159109
[Also, our Model 3 drive unit team just built more than 10,000 units in a week!]
Image below.
—-
Elon: While I have my bank account up on the screen…. ;)
Quote
#FineSecured
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1046327795650097157
Musk is also buying $20 Million in Tesla stock
Supports the company, increases his future wealth, hurts the shorts....
Image below.
—-
Quote
Ad Astra! (@elonisourhero) 9/29/18, 10:37 PM
MUSK IS CEO BITCH!
https://twitter.com/elonisourhero/status/1046227544788414465
<< I might have included a comma in there somewhere  ;D
AA:  Haha! No time for commas! Fight FUD Full Force!
<< He still is also the single largest shareholder.
——
Bonus vid:  Cop pulls over guy for having a computer on his dash!
Tesla Model 3 Tricks Cop - YouTube
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tknQoFmk5N0
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2018, 05:06:10 PM
”...splitting the roles and getting someone in who can remake the board as a true check on the CEO, co-founder and largest shareholder is the bare minimum Tesla needs in terms of governance.”

The board has “talked Musk down” before — I’m thinking of when they changed his mind from going with an all-new architecture for the Model Y to one that uses the Model 3 as a base, so the Model Y could come to production faster.  Everyone there values Musk’s innovation and drive*, so I’m not sure that not being COB will change much.  Adding independent members should not obstruct the mission to accelerate the adoption of sustainable enegy products.

Edit: *see his 10-year pay package.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on September 30, 2018, 05:31:17 PM
The COB position is NOT a “hands on position.”  But if Tesla were to be able to snag someone like Mulally ....  he would be able to help Musk in getting the right people around him.  Tesla STILL needs a “process oriented” COO .... and other people who understand “processes”.  Surprisingly .... there are NOT many people who are good at understanding AND designing processes.  It requires looking ACROSS “functional silos” .... looking more broadly.

BUT ..... if you have a COB like Mulally, he has significant contacts with people who understand processes, and understands the CAO position.  Mulally clearly has the “chops” to help Musk IF Musk can take the help.  There are some people who just can’t accept help (and criticism).  Some people just will NOT accept the life preserver you are throwing them because they don’t like the color.

Changing the COB position will not help Tesla if it is the wrong person, AND it won’t help if that is all Tesla is going to do.  Musk needs “hands on help” as well with processes.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 30, 2018, 07:01:47 PM
Now Tesla has an opportunity to get a good person in the Chairman’s position to HELP Elon.  If Tesla were to be able to pull Alan Mulally out of retirement ... that would be their best hire.  Mulally was COO at Boeing before becoming CEO at Ford.  He retired from Ford about 3 or 4 years ago.

Why would a good person take on the legal liability (they can't even find a CAO to sign off on the books, lol). If they do get a good person in, their first action will be to hold a vote on file chapter 11. It's abundantly clear...there are huge bills coming due, Tesla is not profitable (even if they use every trick in the book to make this quarter profitable, that's not being profitable), and they need huge capital expenditures to make their already announced products come to fruition. And their bonds are junk. They can't expect to raise more money without paying some ridiculous yield. They probably aren't legally allowed to raise money anyways because they haven't filed a 8-K disclosing ongoing SEC and DOJ investigations, (and if they did no one would want to invest).

Any hope of Tesla continuing to be a thing requires a chapter 11 ASAP. Otherwise it will be chapter 7 and Tesla will go down in history as the poster child for zero % interest rate absurdity.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 30, 2018, 07:18:47 PM
production news is amazing.

Let's talk about Tesla's marketing gimmick. They claim to not advertise at all. But they have at least 4 websites which pose as journalism site who do their PR. Simpletons (see author of quote) take this PR at face value, and that is what Tesla is hoping for. Having actual advertisements would be too honest for Tesla. Everyone knows that an ad is propaganda. But obfuscate with a seemingly independent website or youtube channel and 'wala' it can trick the gullible into thinking it is journalism.

The real production news is that it has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks (likely due to lack of demand and/or liquidity crisis). The parking lots at Fremont are rather empty, and there are plenty of reports of workers being sent home early before daily production goals are met. Most recent estimate from bloomberg track (which has been historically quite optimistic) are 2000 model 3s a week. Keep in mind that is 40% the amount that 15 months ago Musk said Tesla would be producing by 9 months ago. GREAT NEWS!!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on September 30, 2018, 08:38:15 PM
Tesla will have to put out some Q3 results - production, sales in the next 5 days, and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness. Very soon after they will have to put out some basic financial statements and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness.

And then they will have to do the SEC filings - and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness

Any tweet from Musk will be treated by the SEC as an official company press release and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness.

Has anyone told Musk?

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2018, 09:26:10 PM
Tesla will have to put out some Q3 results - production, sales in the next 5 days, and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness. Very soon after they will have to put out some basic financial statements and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness.

And then they will have to do the SEC filings - and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness

Any tweet from Musk will be treated by the SEC as an official company press release and the SEC will be auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness.

Has anyone told Musk?

What a shame the SEC hasn’t been auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness since the very beginning. /sarc  ::)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 30, 2018, 09:37:23 PM
What a shame the SEC hasn’t been auditing them for accuracy and truthfulness since the very beginning. /sarc  ::)

Well originally Tesla was a reasonable business. However, Musk's ego consumed the whole endeavor. He couldn't let Solar City fail, and had to fake numbers on reservations to earn himself the leeway for Tesla BoD to agree to bail out Solar City. From then on, the SEC has had ongoing investigations. And now the DOJ as well. It's not know when the DOJ investigations began or what their scope is. FOIA is a bitch for frauds running a ponzi scheme and trying to push out the day of reckoning. The day is almost upon us.

https://www.sec.gov/foia-frequently-requested-documents
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on September 30, 2018, 10:37:32 PM
Quote
The day is almost upon us.
Is there some kind of date by which either Tesla goes bankrupt or you finally quit your endless harping about the imminent bankruptcy? I seem to recall you recently wrote that it's only a few weeks away. How about:
By mid-November?
The end of this year?
Feb 2019?
May 2019?
Please pick a date based on your confidence level (which does seem quite high recently), so we can understand what imminent actually means, and so we may get a chance of putting this to rest.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 30, 2018, 10:55:27 PM
Quote
The day is almost upon us.
Is there some kind of date by which either Tesla goes bankrupt or you finally quit your endless harping about the imminent bankruptcy? I seem to recall you recently wrote that it's only a few weeks away. How about:
By mid-November?
The end of this year?
Feb 2019?
May 2019?
Please pick a date based on your confidence level (which does seem quite high recently), so we can understand what imminent actually means, and so we may get a chance of putting this to rest.

Seems like there is a juggling act currently so I wouldn't be surprised if the ball drops any day. A new BoD set up will occur in the next 2/3 months and they will hopefully have the sense to file. But to truly answer your questions: Jan 2019. They have debt payments that they don't have the cash for (12/31/18 they need a spare 400mm on top the 900mm payment due in march. There is also 400mm due in november. So $1.7 billion total spare cash needed). They have neither the cash nor the capability to raise money from operations and seemingly can't go back to capital markets.  Can someone explain how/why Tesla could meet its obligations over the next 6 months?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2018, 10:57:06 PM
Quote
The day is almost upon us.
Is there some kind of date by which either Tesla goes bankrupt or you finally quit your endless harping about the imminent bankruptcy? I seem to recall you recently wrote that it's only a few weeks away. How about:
By mid-November?
The end of this year?
Feb 2019?
May 2019?
Please pick a date based on your confidence level (which does seem quite high recently), so we can understand what imminent actually means, and so we may get a chance of putting this to rest.

But most of all we want to see articles, analysis, op-eds, videos that state this or that, instead of this endless repetition of personal opinions. What is it, GSY, are you afraid that when the big day comes around, people will have forgotten you have announced it, and so you repeat it every day for two years?

Come on, give it a rest, and just keep posting the interesting stuff.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 30, 2018, 11:00:46 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-debt-explainer/teslas-u-turn-puts-it-back-at-square-one-on-cash-idUSKCN1LD0CY

Article estimates Tesla needs to raise $2billion by the end of the year.

No, I don't want an online applause after the fact. I want ppl to take a hard look themselves and realize how perilous the situation is, and stop talking about things like it is obvious that Tesla will dominate the market and kill ICE vehicles. My true beef is that I don't think Teslas are actually very green, and thus it is a black hole of climate activism.

Best case scenario, ppl on here realize that I'm right and that Tesla has a good chance to file in the next 6 months, and they research how much money they could make buying low strike price put options...I'd love if it ppl into climate change made some bank.  Worse case scenario, ppl are heavily invest in Tesla and poof, there goes the money. I think there is a (small) chance that Tesla becomes a trillion dollar company and shares go to $8000, but it is more likely they go to ZERO. So it makes sense to at least protect positions with puts.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 01, 2018, 01:43:31 AM
On Wed. Musk, Tesla and the SEC have a deal.
On Thur. Musk pulls out.
On Thur after hrs. the SEC announces they're going after Musk
On Friday Tesla stock drops ~14%, Musk says he'll fight it to the end
On Saturday Musk sees the end in sight and folds his hand. He agrees to a slightly worse deal than the one he turned down just 2 days earlier.


Was Elon misinformed when he accepted the original SEC deal?
Was Elon misinformed when he decided to fight?
Is he now being misinformed as he agrees to the new deal?
Is Elon a fool that no longer trusts his own decisions?


What happened between Thursday, when he turned down the SEC offer, and Saturday, when he accepted a worse deal?


I'd postulated up thread that Musk's unorthodox behavior over the past months might have been a sham designed to drive Tesla stock lower & make a buyout much more profitable. The stocks have certainly come down.


Today Elon apparently announced that he's personally buying $20M shares when the market opens. Isn't this  a perfect example of the stock manipulating announcements that he just agreed not to make? Will the DOJ take notice?


Whether Elon is suffering from some kind of emotional collapse, is the victim of unjust government regulation, or is purposely manipulating Tesla's stock downward, he can't be seen as an asset to stockholders at this time.


People make (and lose) fortunes when stocks are as volatile as Tesla's has been. Will Musk come out of this richer or poorer, and do we care?
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 03:20:14 AM
Musk has borrowed something like a billion dollars against his stock position in Tesla. If the price drops low enough (probably something like 220) he could face a margin call. Then he could be looking at a financial disaster. He couldn't unwind his share in Tesla without collapsing the stock price. I'm not sure he can find a buyer for his stake in Space X (whose profitability relies on putting up 3x the current number of active satellites and doing it for $10 billion which is probably impossible, or taking ppl near the moon which they don't have the tech to do). So basically Musk has borrowed a lot of money to live a lavish lifestyle, but if the Tesla stock price goes below 220, the wheels may come off the wagon. Then he would have to sell his $70 million plane and probably some houses and various toys. Seen through this lens, it all makes sense...he thinks settling has a better chance of keeping the price about 220. In the short term, he is likely correct.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 01, 2018, 10:01:08 AM
Quote
Elon is purposely manipulating Tesla's stock downward?
No. If only for the reason GSY gave - his borrowings against his stock holdings. But for many other reasons as well.

GSY - thanks for setting the Jan19 bankruptcy deadline. So in 4 months time we will have peace and quiet either way - they go bankrupt or you tone it down.
Also, any link with details supporting the estimate of $220 as a possible Elon margin call threshold? Seems rather high to me, though obviously some kind of number does exist. Borrowing against stock holdings is the typical way ultra-rich people lose their fortunes.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 01, 2018, 11:09:29 AM
oren
I'd come across the $220 figure also, though I've no idea where I saw it.


If there were private investors ready to lend Musk the funds to take Tesla private at say $270, wouldn't that end any pains that Musk may be facing?


Elon gets his company on the cheap, never has to fear the SEC - or those pesky shorts, and the margin calls evaporate.


If Musk is a particularly vicious capitalist he could be working for an outcome similar to this. If he's an emotional basket case with little control over his own actions, he could be on the up and up.
I don't see too many other possibilities.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 01, 2018, 02:00:36 PM
Tesla community comes together for final end-of-quarter Model 3 delivery push

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-community-final-end-of-q3-2018-model-3-delivery/

Quote
Tesla is hours away from the end of the third quarter, and the carmaker is still pressing hard on its end-of-Q3 delivery push. While the past quarters have been all about the company’s challenges in production, Q3 appears to be all about the electric car maker’s capability to get its vehicles to as many reservation holders as possible. Tesla has adopted a series of programs that allow it to expedite deliveries, from extended operating hours in delivery centers, conducting handovers at customers’ homes, to allowing volunteer owners to aid the company by orienting newcomers with the features and functions of their electric vehicles.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 02:03:22 PM
Monday morning, Oct 1

Tesla shares surge over 15 percent after SEC settlement
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/tesla-shares-surge-over-15-percent-after-sec-settlement.html

Big institutions buying up $tsla on open
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1046722164186116096

TSLA currently up $46.50 at $311  +17.5%

Can we all at least agree that if #Tesla is a cult, it’s GROWING REALLY FAST!?
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1046721460386103296
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 02:17:46 PM
https://twitter.com/thund3r_blood/status/1045788588858855429
Image at the link. ;)

Quote
Even if he does he could just return under the Title:
Not a CEO of Tesla

Nobody would notice  :)
https://twitter.com/deanfieldingf1/status/1045789192696008705
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on October 01, 2018, 02:59:44 PM
Keep in mind that Tesla has been on a roller coaster (stock price) and will likely remain so.  Shorting a stock is just one method to play the “short side” of an equity (buying puts is another method).  But Tesla will continue to go through both short and long term swings .... caused by not only the news, but the REACTION to the news by traders/investors who are involved in “short sales”:

Let’s say that “Bob” thinks Tesla is a sham .... and he called his friendly broker and “shorted” Tesla at $300 a few weeks ago.  When Bob initiated his short position, it created a “sell transaction” that then had to find a buyer.  That created an “unnatural” sell, that created downward pressure on the stock (other things being equal).  If Bob had closed out his short sale last Friday before the close at $265 ... then Bob would have made $35 per share (the diff between the $300 when short sale was initiated and the $300 that Bob closed out his position). 

But if Bob had NOT yet closed out his position, then he could be (underwater) at the opening if Tesla opens at more than $300.  This why you can see such wild gyrations in stock where there  is a significant short interest.  Approximately 25% of the outstanding float of Tesla shares is shorted (per stats near the end of last week).  That is significant.  And that is why you’re likely going to see continue to see significant swings until Tesla proves it can operate at a profit.

So you now have two competing issues:

1) liquidity (promoted by short investors)
2) profitability (promoted by long investors)
3) valuation
4) psychology .... it isn’t the news, it’s the REACTION to the news.  What are traders (long or short) going to do .... over and above the initial reaction this morning?

Stock price movements are created by supply and demand for its shares.   Next few weeks should prove entertaining.








Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 03:21:59 PM
Buddy, there is also the pressure from “margin calls.”  When someone shorts stock on margin (credit/debt), and the stock price goes up more than an allowed percentage, brokers will demand that debt be repaid immediately — usually by forcing them to purchase shares to replace the “borrowed” stock.  When a lot of stock needs to be bought immediately, the stock price goes up... this is the classic “short squeeze.”
TSLA is one of the top 3 shorted stocks, so billion$ are on the line.  Last I saw, it would take more than 3 days of trading to work through all those shares.  And given all the big institutional investors, there are not that many shares available to purchase.  S-q-u-e-e-z-e!  Or, as Elon warned months ago, “the short burn of the century.”



Kim Paquette (@kimpaquette) 10/1/18, 8:22 AM
Shorts watching $TSLA pre-market like  [Image at link. ;) ]
https://twitter.com/kimpaquette/status/1046737141777256450

—-
investor (@investorTTT) 9/30/18, 9:57 PM
Tesla will announce a profit, which means a huge positive cash flow as cash flow will exceed profit by a lot. Big drop in inventory, less capex than depreciation and stock comp....it’ll be a short blood bath.
https://twitter.com/investorttt/status/1046579800431882241
<< When do they announce
Investor: Honestly god only knows....officially not for a month [Nov 7]. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Elon put out a sneak peak before then, hopefully in some official appropriate communication...


28_DELAYS_Later (@28delayslater) 10/1/18, 8:44 AM 
Is this bullish?  ???
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1046742592375984129
Image below.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 01, 2018, 04:03:56 PM
Just one quick, short opinion, and somewhat uninformed. One thing that's been bugging me about the whole SEC business, is that the one thing I remember the SEC from, is the total failure when it comes to monitoring the crazy financial products that triggered the Great Recession of 2018. In my view (at the time), everyone involved with monitoring financial institutions was completely corrupt.

I don't know if the SEC still is, but they protected Big Finance at the time. Maybe they're keen on protecting Big Oil and Big Auto (which is the same) this time around.

Am I just being a conspiracy nut? I'm not a Tesla fanboi, even though I don't want them to fail.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 04:29:25 PM
Just one quick, short opinion, and somewhat uninformed. One thing that's been bugging me about the whole SEC business, is that the one thing I remember the SEC from, is the total failure when it comes to monitoring the crazy financial products that triggered the Great Recession of 2018. In my view (at the time), everyone involved with monitoring financial institutions was completely corrupt.

I don't know if the SEC still is, but they protected Big Finance at the time. Maybe they're keen on protecting Big Oil and Big Auto (which is the same) this time around.

Am I just being a conspiracy nut? I'm not a Tesla fanboi, even though I don't want them to fail.

No, you are not crazy.  Many people have noticed the hypocrisy of gunning for Tesla over a few tweets when financial institutions with documented greed and fault for the biggest crash ever... got nothing.

Also, the Trump pick to head the SEC has ties to Goldman Sachs (as do many in the admin) and has conflicts of interest in companies such as VW.

Trump’s S.E.C. Nominee Disclosure Offers Rare Glimpse of Clients and Conflicts
March 8, 2017
Quote
Jay Clayton, a partner at the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell, is President Trump’s choice to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission.

After spending years cultivating an elite roster of Wall Street and corporate clients, Jay Clayton will now be responsible for policing some of those same types of companies.

Mr. Clayton, a longtime partner at the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell who is President Trump’s pick to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission, has represented big banks like Goldman Sachs and Barclays as well as prominent hedge funds and corporate executives, according to a financial disclosure form made public on Wednesday by the Office of Government Ethics.

Some of the clients were listed on Sullivan & Cromwell’s website — and Mr. Clayton kept nine others confidential — but the filing reveals a number of previously unadvertised assignments, including work he has done for companies facing intense government scrutiny: Deutsche Bank, UBS and Volkswagen. Other well-known clients represented by Mr. Clayton, whose given name is Walter, include the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank, the film studio the Weinstein Company, Reid Hoffman, a founder of LinkedIn, and William C. Erbey, former head of the mortgage firm Ocwen.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/08/business/dealbook/sec-nominee-jay-clayton-client-list-conflicts-interest.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on October 01, 2018, 04:36:18 PM
Quote
Buddy, there is also the pressure from “margin calls.”  When someone shorts stock on margin (credit/debt), and the stock price goes up more than an allowed percentage, brokers will demand that debt be repaid immediately — usually by forcing them to purchase shares to replace the “borrowed” stock.  When a lot of stock needs to be bought immediately, the stock price goes up... this is the classic “short squeeze.”

I am very aware that a short sale is done in a margin account (since the initiation of the short sale is really a loan).  Just keep in mind that the person who is short EITHER transfers funds into their margin account OR sells the stock (or part of the stock).

So yes .... in ANY short situation you CAN have a "short squeeze".  And in the case of Tesla ..... where about 25% of the "float" is SHORT .... you certainly will have AT LEAST A TEMPORARY SQUEEZE.

Here's a link to describe one of the uglier .... if not ugliest of all time ..... short squeezes that happened in October of 2008 at the height of the market melt down when Volkswagen went through a short squeeze because of a purchase by Porsche.  I think there was an investor that committed suicide in Europe because he was short Volkswagen and couldn't "cover" his position in time and got crushed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfV0Y70uny4

And the Volkswagen case is why many people use OPTIONS (Put option) so they know their "absolute exposure" up front.

My point is that there is SOOOO much "back and forth" with Tesla ..... that I EXPECT that their volatility may increase IN BOTH DIRECTIONS until Tesla can "prove" that it can attain INTERMEDIATE TERM profitability (9 to 12 months or so is what I consider intermediate term).

By the way .... I expect them to be able to do so AT SOME POINT.  Will it be this quarter and the next few quarters?  Maybe.  THAT .... is when shorts could REALLY GET SQUEEZED.

I also inserted a longer term chart of Tesla so people can see where it has been trading over the last 5 years.

One thing that is kind of surprising to me ..... is that Tesla only has a Beta of .78.  As many of you likely know, Beta is a measure of a stocks "volatility".  A Beta of 1.0 means it trades on average (either up or down) to the same percentage that the overall market trades.  A Beta LESS THAN 1.0 means it is LESS VOLITILE THAN THE MARKET.  The Beta of Amazon is 1.76 (almost twice the volatility of the overall market).  And a "highly volatile" stock may have a Beta of 3 or more. 

We'll see if that "lack" of volatility continues or not....

The "BE" in blue on the chart of Tesla shows where the "breakeven" line on a short position would be (not including the Margin Interest that is also charged on a short sale).





 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 04:47:54 PM
Stock volativity?  Oh, yes.  But $TSLA could be close to $400 by week’s end.

Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles in Q3 and deliveries could be even crazier
Quote
Friday, we published our latest report showing that Tesla achieved its Model 3 production goal for a record quarter with just over 2 days still to go.  Now that the quarter is over, our same source says that Tesla rallied to produce over 2,000 cars during those two and half days – bringing the total to around 80,000 vehicles.

Depending on how Tesla decides to present its production data (factory gated, rolled off the line, etc), our data could be off, but it’s unlikely to be off by more than 1 or 2 percent.

Among those 80,000 vehicles, Tesla produced about 53,000 Model 3 vehicles during the quarter. That’s an impressive 187% increase over the last quarter.  Overall, Tesla produced almost as many cars this quarter as the last two quarters combined. At this pace of production, it was about a week short of achieving that.

The automaker is expected to release the official numbers later today.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/01/tesla-production-record-q3-deliveries-crazier/

Edit:
Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki)
10/1/18, 10:09 AM
Quote
Awesome job @elonmusk and the Tesla team! We knew you could do it! You just beat the record for annual #EV production in one qtr! Kids - 80k times 4 qtr is 320k cars This gets you to $25 bil in rev. Times 4 multiple gets you to $571 a share. $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1046764059855532033
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 05:06:27 PM
Dana Hull (@danahull)
9/30/18, 11:35 PM
Quote
I hung around outside the Fremont delivery hub on Saturday and talked to owners and volunteers. This sentiment--"I never want to drive a gas car again"-- seems to be fairly widespread. https://twitter.com/crawforso/status/1046600998364606464 
https://twitter.com/danahull/status/1046604533428772864
<< Yeah whenever I drive my wife’s [ICE] car, I cut people off forgetting I don’t have the same acceleration, I forget to use the brakes, and I have gotten out of the car while it’s still running and walked away. It’s also torture and her car makes a low grade whine, which is me.
...
DH:   Some of that sentiment captured in piece that ran today [by DH]:
Elon Musk's Volunteer Army Out in Force at Buzzing Tesla Outlets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/at-hopping-tesla-outlets-musk-s-volunteer-army-is-out-in-force?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

Edit:
This really is the “iPhone moment” for Tesla — consumers making the leap away from ICE cars, and away from buttons and knobs... to a new, continually-upgradeable, improving car. 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on October 01, 2018, 05:53:59 PM
Just one quick, short opinion, and somewhat uninformed. One thing that's been bugging me about the whole SEC business, is that the one thing I remember the SEC from, is the total failure when it comes to monitoring the crazy financial products that triggered the Great Recession of 2018. In my view (at the time), everyone involved with monitoring financial institutions was completely corrupt.

I don't know if the SEC still is, but they protected Big Finance at the time. Maybe they're keen on protecting Big Oil and Big Auto (which is the same) this time around.

Am I just being a conspiracy nut? I'm not a Tesla fanboi, even though I don't want them to fail.

2018 or 2008?
I may well not be better informed.

Total failure of SEC circa 2008? Yes wouldn't disagree with that.

Completely corrupt?
Well maybe I suppose, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. Before the crash the firms buying mortgage products seemed to have sophisticated models of the risk and it seemed to be working well to generate profits. If it is working well to generate profits then it makes sense to expand such operations. Afterwards knowing the whole story is easy to say it is obvious this will end in disaster. At the time, lots of people knew their part of the story and their part seemed to be working well.

SEC protected big finance?
Did they? Or did they just explain to government what would happen if government didn't step in and seeing the consequences, government decided they would act to improve bank liquidity situation.

We are obviously not seeing the situation the same. I suspect you would be quick to say any complex financial product was 'capitalism gone crazy' and therefore the complex financial product is crazy. But maybe it is me that is naive and too accepting of the need for complex financial products.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 05:56:18 PM
October could turn out to be a game-changing month for Tesla stock
Quote
... SEC headwinds are now behind the company and its celebrity CEO, Elon Musk. Meanwhile, in early October, Tesla will likely report blowout third-quarter delivery numbers that wow investors and send Tesla stock soaring. Then in ... early November, Tesla will likely report a profit in its Q3 earnings report, a catalyst that could send Tesla stock to a new permanently high plateau around $400.

With the SEC headwind in the rear-view mirror, Tesla investors are now hyper-focused on the Q3 delivery report, due sometime this week. The consensus belief is that the delivery numbers in that report will drop some jaws. Musk has said before that the company is set to deliver twice as many vehicles in Q3 as they did in Q2. Meanwhile, independent production trackers show that Tesla figured out its production issues early in the quarter, before slowing production toward the end to focus on deliveries.

All of this is good news for Tesla. From a fundamentals standpoint, one major thing holding Tesla stock back was an inability to produce and deliver Model 3 vehicles quickly enough to meet mass market demand. If the Q3 delivery report is as robust as Musk implies it will be (80,000 or more vehicles), then that will be a huge step in the right direction for the Tesla narrative.

Earnings Will Be a Game-Changer
The ability to produce and deliver Model 3 vehicles en masse is a positive development for Tesla stock. But, a bigger positive development is the ability to produce and deliver Model 3 vehicles en masse and at a profit.

It is no secret that Tesla has a problem with profitability. During its entire life as a public company, Tesla has reported a profit only twice before. The first time was in May 2013. The second time was in October 2016. If you look at a long-term chart for Tesla stock, you will see that there have been two huge rallies since the company went public. The first started in May 2013, when Tesla stock went from $50 to $200. The second started in October 2016, when Tesla stock went from $200 to $300.

In other words, the two biggest rallies in this stock’s history were a result of the company netting a profit. The same thing could happen this time around with Q3 earnings.

Musk has previously promised a profit in Q3 or Q4. In a recent memo to employees, he doubled-down on that promise, saying that Tesla is “very close” to making a profit. If this is true, and Tesla shows a profit in Q3 on robust production and delivery numbers, Tesla stock could soar like it did in May 2013 and October 2016. We are talking about a big rally that would most likely put Tesla stock up and over $400. ...
https://investorplace.com/2018/10/buy-tesla-stock-now-october-could-be-a-breakout-month/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 01, 2018, 07:46:39 PM

A Wall Street analyst just toured the Tesla factory, and says the SEC's settlement with Elon Musk is overshadowing beefed-up Model 3 production

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-production-overshadowed-by-sec-settlement-wall-street-analyst-who-toured-factory-says0-2018-10

Quote
...
"Model 3 production appears stable and activity throughout the factory was surprisingly calm and orderly, despite it being the final week of 3Q18," said in a note to clients last week following his visit. "We walked the Model 3 line from start to finish which included both GA3 (conventional general assembly) and GA4 (the infamous tent). GA4, while relatively unsophisticated, is legitimate"

Most impressive was the futuristic assembly line and its robots, Shah says, even despite Musk's admission that "excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake" and that "humans are underrated." The Shuler stamper — one of the largest in North America — even had to be paused intermittently in order to not outpace the rest of the assembly line
...
"Some aspects of the production process felt ahead of their time,"
...
"Still, some bottlenecks remain in the production workflow and some aspects of the manufacturing process seem outdated, according to Shah."
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 08:00:38 PM
Streetinsider.com (@Street_Insider) 10/1/18, 9:55 AM
Tesla $TSLA PT Raised to $500 by Global Equities' Chowdhry; Says Either Instagram Founder Could Be an Ideal Chairman bit.ly/2ItfI2B
https://twitter.com/street_insider/status/1046760555296542721

US Banking News (@AmericanBanking) 10/1/18, 10:39 AM
Oppenheimer Analysts Give Tesla $TSLA a $385.00 Price Target #stocks
https://twitter.com/americanbanking/status/1046771573980635136

TeslaAnalyst (@TeslaAnalyst) 10/1/18, 6:43 AM
Ben Kallo (Baird) and Colin Rusch (Oppenheimer) re-iterated their $TSLA price targets of $411 and $385
Separately, Pierre Ferragu (New Street, price target $530) writes that the SEC settlement will help keep Musk in check while allowing him to focus on how he can best help $TSLA
https://twitter.com/teslaanalyst/status/1046712111538167808

——
U.S. CRUDE UP MORE THAN $1 A BARREL TO SESSION HIGH OF $74.41
#oott
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1046784988660813825
——-

Edit:
Ellec (@ellec_uk)
10/1/18, 1:51 PM
$tsla 2025 bonds up 4% today, great sign for the company
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1046819858959278080
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 08:52:52 PM
No, you are not crazy.  Many people have noticed the hypocrisy of gunning for Tesla over a few tweets when financial institutions with documented greed and fault for the biggest crash ever... got nothing.

The SEC didn't step in during 2006/2007 because the problem was a very complicated and very deeply buried issue....MBSs and CDOs were not exactly a normal topic of conversation. However, Musk announced the biggest LBO in history, driving up the stock price, while the stock was open for trading, successfully (however short lived) crushing the shorts who he had claimed he wanted to crush. THAT IS THE MOST PUBLIC AND OBVIOUS CASE OF MARKET MANIPULATION IN HISTORY. Had they not taken action, it would have shown that they don't care at all about securities fraud. Extremely different than pre Great Recession shenanigans.

Tesla community comes together for final end-of-quarter Model 3 delivery push

No legitimate business has end of quarter bonanzas. It is a clear sign of operational insanity and financial distress. Building 5,000 model 3s in a tent in the last week of June makes no longer term business sense...it only makes sense if you are trying to continue a ponzi scheme and need some point you are able to hype via your media outlets to convince those who are the most predisposed to being convinced. Q3 end of quarter nonsense is no different. That Tesla Bulls point to it as a great sign just further exposes how detached from reality they are.


ALSO, Musk is already trying to side step the oversight he agreed to in his settlement with the SEC and is using leaked internal emails to hype the market. Considering the ongoing SEC and DOJ investigations, this shows just how desperate he must be.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 09:09:47 PM
Taking Tesla private at $420

Tesla has 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining

Musk follows 69 people on twitter

Tesla Models S 3 X Y

Space X design a Big Falcon F*cking Rocket

This guy has the sophistication you would expect if a 14 year old boy was running a  $50 billion dollar company. The fact that these clever childish jokes are embedded into announcements of the biggest take private deal in history and the reporting of reservations for Tesla's main product is ASTONISHING. It quite clearly points to such systemic levels of fraud that Musk thinks it is funny. How do y'all bulls justify this? Or do you just choose to pretend it isn't happening?!?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 01, 2018, 09:26:16 PM
Taking Tesla private at $420

Tesla has 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining

Musk follows 69 people on twitter

Tesla Models S 3 X Y

Space X design a Big Falcon F*cking Rocket

This guy has the sophistication you would expect if a 14 year old boy was running a  $50 billion dollar company. The fact that these clever childish jokes are embedded into announcements of the biggest take private deal in history and the reporting of reservations for Tesla's main product is ASTONISHING. It quite clearly points to such systemic levels of fraud that Musk thinks it is funny. How do y'all bulls justify this? Or do you just choose to pretend it isn't happening?!?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=296jHs4im-U

;)

It's childish on the one hand, but it's also pretty funny that someone doesn't give a damn about how it comes across or what anybody thinks. Most people who get rich, lose that attitude.

Or maybe he's just crazy?

Anyone curious already what's going to happen during Q4, especially towards the end? January 19 is not long after that.  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 09:47:15 PM
...
Anyone curious already what's going to happen during Q4, especially towards the end? January 19 is not long after that.  ;D

Tesla’s major expenditures to ramp the Model 3 are over.  We’ll see increasing production and minimal capex resulting in a huge profit for 4Q2018, and sustainably thereafter.

Sober analysis, with charts and data, here:

Tesla Q3 2018 Production And Deliveries: What I'll Be Watching
Quote
Specifically, I expect Tesla to achieve marginal profits in Q3 followed by larger profits in Q4, as Model 3 production is optimized, for a total of $1 billion in GAAP profits in the second half of 2018:
[see chart below]
More importantly, I expect Tesla's free cash flow to exceed its GAAP profits in the same period, primarily due to lower capital expenditures that it will need to spend in the coming months, since Model 3 production has already ramped.
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4209149-tesla-q3-2018-production-deliveries-watching
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 10:00:57 PM
Q4 is when the big hurdles arrive. (I believe the company is already in a severe liquidity crisis, but admittedly this is speculation based on (a myriad of) anecdotal evidence.) Q4 looks like when they run out of demand for the model 3 configurations they are currently producing. They also have to pay off 400mm in loans (and 20m to the SEC). On the last day of the quarter Tesla needs $1.3 billion to not default on their loan obligations. They will also get 2 new independent board members and a new chairman. These positions come with a fiduciary duty to make sure Tesla is playing by the rules. Recently most executives in a similar position have left the company. That is not going to happen with new board members. They will instead force the necessary changes. Considering the financial situation Tesla is in, I have to imagine those changes will be centered around filing chapter 11 and restructuring their debts. (Equity, aka stock, is last in the capital structure and would get entirely whipped out.)

I agree with Lurk about the large scale financial situation. Tesla could quite easily set off the next financial crisis.

In regards to Buddy's "Bob analogy". It is unlikely that average guy Bob would have his broker actually short Tesla. Like you said, put options are also a method to short, but they come with far less risk if the company's value skyrockets. This is why actually shorting a stock typically requires lots of collateral and is usually done only by the largest market players. It really is not possible to develop a several billion dollar position in puts (the market isn't big enough, and the prices would drastically increase with this amount of money). Bob, like myself, would just buy some puts.

"A Wall Street analyst just toured the Tesla factory, and says the SEC's settlement with Elon Musk is overshadowing beefed-up Model 3 production"

How does a person touring a factory figure out the production rate? Why is bloombergs tracker estimate that production has fallen off a cliff and is currently at a weekly rate below 1900?!?

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 10:09:15 PM
Tesla’s major expenditures to ramp the Model 3 are over.  We’ll see increasing production and minimal capex resulting in a huge profit for 4Q2018, and sustainably thereafter.

What about the capital expenditures of building their own car carriers? What about the capital expenditures of bringing repairs in house? What about the legal costs from the outrageous number of legal battles with which Tesla is confronted?  What about the serious possibility that Tesla runs out of demand at the price of the model 3 they are currently configuring? How will production "remain" "high" if Tesla shifts focus to producing parts from the backlog of un-repair cars in the fleet?

I'm going to predict Tesla comes out with Q4 GAAP profits guidance of $420 million. Cuz, you know, it is all a big joke.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 10:21:32 PM
What about the Not-A-Flamethrower, which made $10 million for the Boring Company?

And SpaceX’s autonomous drone ships, named, “Of Course I Still Love You” and “Just Read the Instructions,” after the Culture Ships in Iain M. Banks’ science fiction novels.  Not to mention the waypoint once assigned to the Falcon 9’s fairing-catcher ship “Mr. Stevens” of “Your Mom’s House.”  Did you know the Falcon 9 was named after the Millenium Falcon, of Star Wars? 

Or Tesla’s “Ludicrous speed” mode, from the movie “Spaceballs.”  Or “Mad Max” lane change mode....

Elon’s fans love the humor, just as we take very seriously Tesla’s goal to accelerated the advent of sustainable energy and transport.  And Tesla’s success is proof that humor doesn’t get in the way of important progress, and in fact makes life a little bit more worth living. :) 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 10:37:34 PM
“How does a person touring a factory figure out the production rate?”

Could be they looked at the big white board on the factory floor where production totals are written. ;D
   Edit: OK, not a white board. Lots and lots of data displays!  Image below. :)

“Why is bloombergs tracker estimate that production has fallen off a cliff and is currently at a weekly rate below 1900?!?”

I already explained this.  Large batches of VINs were assigned to cars being transported to the US east coast and Canada, so there is a delay in owners getting them and reporting them to Bloomberg. Please try to keep up.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg174402.html#msg174402

2,000 cars were produced just last weekend, according to reports.  Your beloved tracker will show them soon.  If you’ve been following along, you’ll remember that Tesla production has previously slowed after quarter end — only to come roaring back at increased rates in the ensuing weeks, as lessons learned during the burst production led to tweaks and improvements to the lines during the downtime.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 10:52:37 PM
blah blah blah

Could be they looked at the big white board on the factory floor where production totals are written. ;D

Is this is joke? It's a serious question I was asking. Do you have any answer or are you perfectly comfortable posting nonsense as long as it is pro-tesla nonsense?

Large batches of VINs were assigned to cars being transported to the US east coast and Canada, so there is a delay in owners getting them and reporting them to Bloomberg. 2,000 cars were produced just last weekend, according to reports.

I know how the report is put together. I have know it is a hoax all along. It's just ironic that it was touted on the way up and ignored on the way down.  Tesla DID NOT produce 2,000 model 3s over the weekend. The parking lot at Fremont was mostly empty, and 1,000 cars in a day is more than the paint shop is permitted for.

Please try to keep up.

Hmmm. I'm trying to think up the harshest insult I can write on this forum. Eat sh*t and di....probably too harsh. I hope you get your eyes gou....probably too harsh. Oh I got it...I hope you have taken out large loans and put every penny possible into Tesla stock. You'll be able to show solidarity with your savior and file at about the same time.

If you’ve been following along, you’ll remember that Tesla production has previously slowed after quarter end — only to come roaring back at increased rates in the ensuing weeks, as lessons learned during the burst production led to tweaks and improvements to the lines during the downtime.

This is an absurd way to run a business. #420-thought-process
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 01, 2018, 11:12:49 PM
What a difference a day makes. See attached image

Sigmetnow
Quote
If you’ve been following along, you’ll remember that Tesla production has previously slowed after quarter end — only to come roaring back at increased rates in the ensuing weeks, as lessons learned during the burst production led to tweaks and improvements to the lines during the downtime.

GoSouthYoungins
Quote
This is an absurd way to run a business.

No, it's pretty normal in today's world and especially in a fast growing new business.

1) Meet production and sales targets at any cost according to market expectations or over-optimistic blah blah from the boss.

2) Then Consolidate, correct faults ASAP before repeating 1).

Repeat ad infinitum until the market is saturated and /or the business goes bust and/or the world hits the skids (one of which will).

If even the IMF can do it to developing countries (the pain attached to loans is always longer and deeper while the benefit is always later and lesser) why can't Musk?

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 11:23:30 PM
Bear trap!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 11:28:36 PM
Quote
”Could be they looked at the big white board on the factory floor where production totals are written. ;D

Is this is joke? It's a serious question I was asking. Do you have any answer or are you perfectly comfortable posting nonsense as long as it is pro-tesla nonsense?

Perfectly serious, not nonsense to anyone who has seen the factory videos.  Please return to my original post to see why.

As to the rest...  U mad bro?
Settle down, GSY.  Remember: self-moderation.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 11:39:11 PM
No, it's pretty normal in today's world and especially in a fast growing new business.

Can you give a single example of a company with a market cap over $1 billion where this is normal?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 11:44:05 PM
Quote
Large batches of VINs were assigned to cars being transported to the US east coast and Canada, so there is a delay in owners getting them and reporting them to Bloomberg. 2,000 cars were produced just last weekend, according to reports.

I know how the report is put together. I have know it is a hoax all along. It's just ironic that it was touted on the way up and ignored on the way down.  Tesla DID NOT produce 2,000 model 3s over the weekend. The parking lot at Fremont was mostly empty, and 1,000 cars in a day is more than the paint shop is permitted for.

For someone who believes the tracker is a hoax, you sure made it a part of your argument and posted enough images of it lately. ;D   We all love the tracker when it agrees with our beliefs.

More factory tidbits:  Tesla production lines are not one long line.  There are many sections, making or preparing hundreds of parts at a time, which are stored until they are needed.  Cars, and sections of cars, can be painted and not go immediately to the production line.  The paint shop bottleneck was solved a few weeks ago, along with dropping two colors and charging more for others to reduce their popularity.  Please try to... oh, never mind.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 11:47:40 PM
No, it's pretty normal in today's world and especially in a fast growing new business.

Can you give a single example of a company with a market cap over $1 billion where this is normal?

Strawman argument.  Tesla factory is different from others — exactly as you claim.  Judging by how fast they are ramping (doubling quarter over quarter), their methods work perhaps better than any other company.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 11:48:20 PM
Settle down, GSY.  Remember: self-moderation.

How about a shred of intellectual honesty and address the fact that Musk fabricates guidance using numbers he thinks is clever? (which is fraud. childish, border-line insane fraud)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 11:50:39 PM
No, it's pretty normal in today's world and especially in a fast growing new business.

Can you give a single example of a company with a market cap over $1 billion where this is normal?

Strawman argument.  Tesla factory is different from others — exactly as you claim.  Judging by how fast they are ramping (doubling quarter over quarter), their methods work perhaps better than any other company.

WTF. Do you even know what a strawman argument is? It means putting an claim on someone that they are not making. gerontocrat said it was normal. I asked for an example. That is not what strawman argument is. You are genuinely an idiot.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 02, 2018, 12:56:01 AM
Just one quick, short opinion, and somewhat uninformed. One thing that's been bugging me about the whole SEC business, is that the one thing I remember the SEC from, is the total failure when it comes to monitoring the crazy financial products that triggered the Great Recession of 2018. In my view (at the time), everyone involved with monitoring financial institutions was completely corrupt.

I don't know if the SEC still is, but they protected Big Finance at the time. Maybe they're keen on protecting Big Oil and Big Auto (which is the same) this time around.

Am I just being a conspiracy nut? I'm not a Tesla fanboi, even though I don't want them to fail.

SEC is doing what any other American institution does: protect capital.  Nobody (for the most part) was prosecuted during the great recession, because everybody was culpable. Do you think an agency of the United States of America was going to take down the entire financial industry? That's insane.

What does the SEC really do? It fines out-of-control executives that are stealing reach people's money. And even then, it's a slap on the wrist and rarely jail time. A time-out for rich people.

What is Elon doing? He's a lying fraud. And that's bad for investors, that's bad for capital, that's bad for finance.  Do you think everyone is just going sit back while he spews bullshit about his failing company?  Do you think that investors are cool with Elon stealing their money?

What's the difference between Tesla and the financial crisis? during the crisis, the bankers weren't stealing rich peoples money, they stole the wealth of the poor and middle class. Something we've been doing for a very long time. Elon is fucking with the rich. And that's a Bad Move.

But yes. It's big oil. A big conspiracy theory.  All these shorts, federal agencies, media-men, they've been tipped off by the koch brothers.  Too bad nobody gave Big Oil the memo about battery, hydro, wind turbine, and PV manufacturers. Not to mention every other single automaker who is competing to build EV's


And listen, I'm not saying the fossil fuel industry is not responsible for delaying progress. But their strategy is a little more elegant than going on twitter and attacking some bumbling idiot from South Africa.

Elon Musk literally called a hero diver a pedophile when he criticized his child coffin. If I was big oil, I would love Elon. Just look at the stupid shit he's doing. If there's someone who can give EV's a bad name, it's Elon.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 02, 2018, 01:06:22 AM
Quote
Large batches of VINs were assigned to cars being transported to the US east coast and Canada, so there is a delay in owners getting them and reporting them to Bloomberg. 2,000 cars were produced just last weekend, according to reports.

I know how the report is put together. I have know it is a hoax all along. It's just ironic that it was touted on the way up and ignored on the way down.  Tesla DID NOT produce 2,000 model 3s over the weekend. The parking lot at Fremont was mostly empty, and 1,000 cars in a day is more than the paint shop is permitted for.

For someone who believes the tracker is a hoax, you sure made it a part of your argument and posted enough images of it lately. ;D   We all love the tracker when it agrees with our beliefs.

More factory tidbits:  Tesla production lines are not one long line.  There are many sections, making or preparing hundreds of parts at a time, which are stored until they are needed.  Cars, and sections of cars, can be painted and not go immediately to the production line.  The paint shop bottleneck was solved a few weeks ago, along with dropping two colors and charging more for others to reduce their popularity.  Please try to... oh, never mind.

More factory tidbits:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoX3TNTXsAIDmQf.jpg)

Painting outside, finally fixed the bottleneck!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoX4MoAXUAAsun_.jpg)

Garbage everywhere

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoX5AmfWkAAIiTm.jpg)

lol
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoX54eyW0AocUdW.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoX5hP_WkAMwv0q.jpg)

State of the art tent facility with state of the art garbage pile
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoX75FEXUAAXMwe.jpg)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 02, 2018, 01:15:58 AM
I can't wait till someone writes a book that details all the fraud and bullshit surrounding Tesla and Musk.  Maybe, just maybe, the sycophants techno-fetishists will finally come to their senses. And this pathetic obsession with Musk will come to an end!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 02, 2018, 01:31:54 AM
Imagine yourself in forty years. We've passed the point of no return. We couldn't stop climate change. All is hopeless. Everyone is scared, angry, and confused. How could this happen? Everyone cries.

The Sigmetnows and Archimids of the world answer:

"Well, we tried our gosh darn hardest. You see, there's this guy from South Africa who got his fortune from apartheid gem mining. He bought nice cars like McLaren and rode on a private jet. One day he bought a electric car company and was going to build one for every person in the world. That's how he was going to save the world. He didn't like public transport so he was going to make a super special underground vacuum tube where you could drive your own car in. Very cool. very innovative. what a genius. too bad the oil companies and shorts got in his way. what a shame. everything would be fine now. OH! and he wanted us to go to mars! how cool! "
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 02:01:30 AM
zizek. EXACTLY. even if Tesla wasn't a fraud, there is nothing green about what the company is doing. Photos from when Toyota ran the plant vs now are stunning. It's as if an elite group moved out and a bunch of crack heads started squatting. Oh the Tesla methods....

https://www.truedelta.com/car-reliability
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 02:05:38 AM
Maybe a 3rd and final quarter close to breakeven, and then the exponential cash burn will continue. The pattern is abundantly obvious.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 05:12:09 AM
ALSO, Musk is already trying to side step the oversight he agreed to in his settlement with the SEC and is using leaked internal emails to hype the market. Considering the ongoing SEC and DOJ investigations, this shows just how desperate he must be.

Boom shocka locka. The SEC has a question for Tesla.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459018023716/tsla-8k_20180930.htm
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 05:23:27 AM
The time for negative Tesla news used to take months to get from the Tesla-bearosphere to the mainstream media. It is now down to a few weeks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/business/tesla-cars-questions.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 02, 2018, 07:04:57 AM
Quote
A secondary mystery to me is why does everyone on this forum put up with Sigmetnow's non-stop obsession in FLOODING so many threads with so much USELESS garbage from the know-nothing Media Pundits and other posts quoting so many fools including from Musk and Tesla and extremely manipulative deceptive websites?

If you wish to swim in an information sewer then this is right way to go about it. It's sick. It;s pathological that this is accepted behavior that is not properly moderated by Neven and other participants out of the Forum entirely.
Your way with words is commendable, showing proper decorum. Just for balance, I really enjoy Sigmetnow's updates all over this forum (not just the technological stuff). She saves me the need to browse an endless number of websites and twitter feeds. If some of these updates are on the positive side of things, I can use my own filtering as needed. Her posts are short and to the point, I wish that was true for some other certain posters here.
I also seem to remember she has reported to be invested in Tesla, I'm not sure why this should allow or disallow anyone to post stuff. (I am occasionally long via options, who cares?)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 02, 2018, 09:36:14 AM
zizex
The aerial photos were amazing.
No wonder there are fires & complaints re. quality.

I'm not a naturally neat person, but I've never kept a business yard that looked anything like that. I'm not sure I've ever seen a business yard that looked much worse, and a friend once owned a rundown auto scrap yard in the Nevada desert. ::)

I can't imagine why any are reduced to name calling. I'm probably slightly long TSLA through Fidelity. Sig's the only one I know that holds stock in the company & I don't think it's enough that Tesla's success or failure will make any difference to his lifestyle.

I've posted my thoughts regarding Elon's state of mind, read both the pros and those that think he's a con, 8)  and I just don't understand the amount of passion exhibited.

FWIW I came across what appears to be a ~balanced bio. published on his 47nd birthday.

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-rise-of-elon-musk-2016-7

I saw 2 auto haulers today loaded with new full size pick up trucks. The local Toyota factory apparently uses only rail for their deliveries, which I'm sure saves cash and repairs. I can't imagine why Musk tore up his existing multi $MM RR siding.
This has to increase costs while providing no advantages to the company.

I hope that Space X s being managed in a more efficient manner.
Terry



Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 02, 2018, 11:24:33 AM
Going off-topic is one thing. But these lengthy discussions about discussions and about what posters do on the ASIF, etc, is getting mighty tiresome.

Lurk, I'm going to have to ask you to keep it shorter and just accept how things are, whether right or wrong. Today I woke up, and it has taken me a full hour to deal with the ASIF soap opera. I can't afford to waste that much time on things that look like those Tesla dumps. There will come a point where I'm going to do a big cleaning.

Back on-topic, and mostly stuff related to pro and contra Tesla success/failure.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 11:31:45 AM

Quote
Now I am NOT either pro or con Tesla per se. I am neutral and unbiased

LOL
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 02, 2018, 12:50:03 PM
GoSouthYoungins
Quote

    This is an absurd way to run a business.


No, it's pretty normal in today's world and especially in a fast growing new business.

1) Meet production and sales targets at any cost according to market expectations or over-optimistic blah blah from the boss.

2) Then Consolidate, correct faults ASAP before repeating 1).

Repeat ad infinitum until the market is saturated and /or the business goes bust and/or the world hits the skids (one of which will).

G. no need to be specific in your answer, but have you ever run a business? be it your own or as a mngt exec in a corporation involved in customer sales of a "product". Any kind of real world widget?

Or done uni degree in business, marketing or economics etc? I am trying to work out how much "value and credibility" I can place on your comments in regard "business practices in he real world"
31 Countries, developed and developing. Governments, multi-lateral and bi-lateral development agencies, large and small private businesses from very big multi-nationals to small SMES.

Executive and advisory functions.

And to clarify. No, not a good way to do business but that is the new normal. Shareholders demanding greater and greater short-term returns, the pace becoming frantic

Once upon a time you were sent out to do a project out there and you were left alone. The best times - no phone & no fax and e-mail (huh - sci-fi). But woe betide if the job was not done.

Now some kid with a newly minted MBA back home in his glass and concrete box has to show he is doing something. Emails and more e-mails not edited before hitting SEND. Targets and more targets increasingly unreal. Management is divorced from the shop floor.

So a measured and well administered development plan (private or public) is a rarity.

And Musk is a lousy administrator. Cheer leader, yes, inspiration (like it or not) yes.
Unable to delegate ? -Yes.
Too liable to leap from one thing to another? - Yes.

I bet the really big boys (no women?) at the top of Apple delegate and delegate and delegate.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 01:41:49 PM
Lurk, I wasn't suggesting that you thought that Tesla was going to set off the next bubble burst. I was saying that I agree with you about the financial situation. AND that I think Tesla might very well be the pin. Dot-com had Enron. Great Recession had fraudulently rated MBS (kinda complicated). I wouldn't be surprised if the Super Bubble has Tesla.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 01:51:10 PM
I really enjoy Sigmetnow's updates all over this forum (not just the technological stuff). She saves me the need to browse an endless number of websites and twitter feeds. I also seem to remember she has reported to be invested in Tesla, I'm not sure why this should allow or disallow anyone to post stuff.

She's a she? Gaahhh. Some chivalrous part of me now feels bad for my brashness (sometimes worse). And she is invested in Tesla. GAAAHHHH. Might I kindly suggest protecting your position via put options?

I really don't want to see ppl get whipped out by the Tesla scam. I get it...they are the biggest company ostensibly fighting climate change. It is easy and natural if you care about climate change to want to root for them. And in general it is a good thing to put your money where your mouth is. In this case though, there are just so many red flags that hedging is warranted.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on October 02, 2018, 01:57:14 PM
Zizek
Quote
The Sigmetnows and Archimids of the world answer:

"Well, we tried our gosh darn hardest. You see, there's this guy from South Africa who got his fortune from apartheid gem mining. He bought nice cars like McLaren and rode on a private jet. One day he bought a electric car company and was going to build one for every person in the world. That's how he was going to save the world. He didn't like public transport so he was going to make a super special underground vacuum tube where you could drive your own car in. Very cool. very innovative. what a genius. too bad the oil companies and shorts got in his way. what a shame. everything would be fine now. OH! and he wanted us to go to mars! how cool! "

I find it fascinating that with all the people or organizations you could "go after" regarding the plight of our planet ..... that you choose Elon Musk.

1)  FOX News:  Has been lying for over TWO DECADES about global warming.  Parading the likes of Joe Bastardi and others to lie to the American public.  Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Tucker Carlson, Lou Dobbs ..... take your pick.... all of them (except Shepard Smith) have been lying about global warming for decades.

2)  Donald Trump:
  Has been lying about global warming over the last decade.  Now when he is in a position to do something about it, what is he doing?  He's RAMPING UP GLOBAL WARMING. And he is a bigoted, sexist, narcissist to boot.

3)  Rick Scott, Governor of Florida:  Has been lying about global warming for at least a decade.  He is the governor of a state that is ALREADY being hammered by global warming, AND HE TELLS EVERYONE TO IGNORE IT.

So ..... instead of picking on one of the above ..... you choose to pick on someone that is actually doing something THAT WILL HELP MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING.

I think you need to re-visit your priorities.  Maybe Elon should be further down on your list....

 
   

 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 01:59:50 PM
Seems to me the only ones criticizing GSYs are the one's who come across as not having any kind of business know how or leadership experience in business and corporations.   They typically only ever rely on some "quote" or article by someone else in the "media" that sounds good enough but may not be valid or credible.

I believe the people you are referring to are known as Tesla Bulls. It was this realization that actually led me to bet against Tesla. If all the people on one side of a trade are clueless about real world practicalities, I'm happy to put money on the other side of that trade.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 02:02:33 PM
I find it fascinating that with all the people or organizations you could "go after" regarding the plight of our planet ..... that you choose Elon Musk

......

I think you need to re-visit your priorities.  Maybe Elon should be further down on your list....

I can explain it real simple like: Elon Musk is the black hole for climate change activism. Tons of energy goes in, and nothing comes out. Poof
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 02:06:45 PM
oh, and he is also an egomaniacal jackass posing as a do-gooder.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 02, 2018, 02:25:35 PM
OK, back to posting articles. I've checked the Internet, there's not that much new, definite news. So, this thread can stay quiet today, right? Right?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 02:41:20 PM
OK, back to posting articles. I've checked the Internet, there's not that much new, definite news. So, this thread can stay quiet today, right? Right?

He is taunting the SEC, a day after reaching a settlement with them. He walks away from a settlement on thursday. The SEC sues on friday. He reaches a new settlement over the weekend. And on monday he tweets a music video "Naughty by Nature" with a wink face. That has to count as significant on the road to Tesla failure.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 02:57:18 PM
And Musk is a lousy administrator.

An administrator that adhere to whatever version of "best business practices" they pick will almost certainly be a mediocre administrator, as he is doing what everyone else is doing. That's a good thing.

 Then there are administrators who deviate from the agreed "best business practices". That group splits in two, those whose business fare worse that the mediocre administrators (bad administrators) and those whose business fare better than the mediocre administrators (good administrators).

Judging by the success in multiple businesses, I think Musk's deviations from "best business practices" qualify him as a good administrator.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 03:13:31 PM
Tesla Q3 production and delivery results announced

Tesla delivers 83.5k vehicles for Q3 2018, Model 3 production hits 53,239
Quote
During the third quarter, Tesla produced a total of 80,142 electric cars, 50% more than the company’s prior all-time high in Q2 2018. Tesla produced 53,239 Model 3, as well as 26,903 Model S and X vehicles.

Deliveries for Q3 totaled 83,500 vehicles, comprised of 55,840 Model 3, as well as 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. With these figures, Tesla’s Q3 deliveries alone corresponds to 80% of the company’s entire deliveries last year. The electric car maker also delivered about twice as many Model 3 in the third quarter as all previous quarters combined.


The third quarter saw Tesla transition from its self-imposed “production hell” and well into what Elon Musk describes as “delivery logistics hell.” Even before the Q3 results were released, expectations from Wall Street analysts already pointed to the electric car maker hitting its target of producing and delivering 50,000-55,000 Model 3 in the quarter. Even Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, who has long been a Tesla skeptic, released a note stating that he expects the company to achieve its Q3 production and delivery targets.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-q3-production-and-delivery-numbers/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 03:21:36 PM
Darn. Sigmetnow beat me to it.  :) :)

This is freaking great. 83k cars will not be emitting CO2 for the next 10 years. And this is only the beginning.

Quote
... we are accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory, which we expect to be a capital efficient and rapid build out, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 03:31:19 PM
He also bought $20 million of Tesla stock pre-market starting at 420 AM. #HeroesAreReal  ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 03:52:19 PM
So a CEO buying shares of his own company is bad. I must be beyond stupid because  it is my understanding that a CEO buying shares on his company is a sign of commitment and optimism.

Also if Elon is a fraud, will somebody tell him that he is going about it the wrong way. If he keeps investing his own money on his own fraud he will go broke!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 04:09:42 PM
So a CEO buying shares of his own company is bad. I must be beyond stupid because  it is my understanding that a CEO buying shares on his company is a sign of commitment and optimism.

Also if Elon is a fraud, will somebody tell him that he is going about it the wrong way. If he keeps investing his own money on his own fraud he will go broke!

"I must be beyond stupid"

ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding (think stock-exchange closing-bell sound)

"investing his own money on his own fraud he will go broke"

it is actually pretty simple. he wanted to move the price up before the open to make it appear as though the market has very bullish on the news of his settlement. also, he has used his stock position as a piggy bank by taking loans with his stock as collateral. fun fact: musk has take more money out of Tesla than he has put in. and the company has about $10 billion net negative free cash flow.


Also, did you manage to overlook the part about it all starting at 4:20?!?

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 04:10:40 PM
Good is bad. Bad is good.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 02, 2018, 04:11:15 PM
Back on topic. You're running around in circles, chasing each other's tails again.  ::)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 04:16:09 PM
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries

http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries

two notable differences between Q2 and Q3 reports:

1) no longer any mention of profitability

2) no longer any mention of the # of reservations remaining

BULLISH
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 02, 2018, 04:17:00 PM
Plugging the announced numbers into CoverDrive's spreadsheet (whose assumptions have proven accurate over the past year+) leaves them with a -$334M GAAP loss this quarter. They'll have to make up the difference with ZEV credit sales (they have a pile of them saved up nominally worth ~550M atm) and other one-time items.

The recent e-mail leak had Musk saying "very close to profitability" which makes me think they'll come up just short. (ZEV credit demand isn't exactly going to be able to soak up the entire pile at once and ZEVs start phasing out next year, leaving them without this source of income after that.)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 04:22:57 PM
I really don't understand how people can know that all past guidance has come up way short, and still expect future guidance to be close to accurate. Makes me think of something about Einstein and the definition of insanity.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 04:29:32 PM
Plugging the announced numbers into CoverDrive's spreadsheet (whose assumptions have proven accurate over the past year+) leaves them with a -$334M GAAP loss this quarter. They'll have to make up the difference with ZEV credit sales (they have a pile of them saved up nominally worth ~550M atm) and other one-time items.

The recent e-mail leak had Musk saying "very close to profitability" which makes me think they'll come up just short. (ZEV credit demand isn't exactly going to be able to soak up the entire pile at once and ZEVs start phasing out next year, leaving them without this source of income after that.)

I really don't much about ZEV, and I have seen estimate from about 500M to 0. Interesting take on the 0 side of the argument from twitter:

https://twitter.com/ad8871/status/1043229892631031808
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 04:40:30 PM
The NYT opened the spigot last night, and now the mainstream flows with bad news for Tesla.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/09/elon-musk-and-tesla-reach-settlement-sec/571738/?utm_source=twb

"Now that Elon Musk has shown, with this SEC debacle, that he is not just a visionary but also a fool, it’s possible that the walls will continue crumbling around him."
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 04:47:30 PM
Plugging the announced numbers into CoverDrive's spreadsheet

Do you have a link for that? Seems like fun.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 02, 2018, 05:30:01 PM
Plugging the announced numbers into CoverDrive's spreadsheet

Do you have a link for that? Seems like fun.
I guess this article is the basis. Open in incognito window.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never?page=4 (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never?page=4)
CoverDrive expected delivery of 79000 cars, with the actual number at 83500.
Plugging the actual sales numbers, I am getting -334$M as per Csnavywx. Plugging in 15% for Model 3 gross margin instead of 12.5% gives -250$M.
Note: I have no idea if the other numbers are realistic. ZEV remains an unknown.

Edit: thanks Csnavywx for the correction of my calculations. I am "gambling" on a Q3 profit, though probably narrow.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 05:32:18 PM
... And this is only the beginning.

Quote
... we are accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory, which we expect to be a capital efficient and rapid build out, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America.

This bears repeating.  Tesla previously accelerated construction of the Gigafactory by two years, to go with moving the production start of the Model 3 up by two years after the unexpectedly huge intitial response to the car.  The China schedule was already seen as very aggressive, but now...!  Not impossible, since the China factory will only produce Model 3 (and Y), so Tesla knows exactly what is required to make the car — a car designed to be much easier to produce than the Model S and X.  And they’re already talking with China lithium producers.  No doubt they’ve already put in orders for robots and are in talks with suppliers.  Will be interesting to see if they incorporate as much vertical integration (e.g., making their own seats) as they do in Fremont.

From July, about the Tesla China Factory:
Quote
Tesla expects to begin construction in the near future, after it gets the necessary government approvals. From there, the plant will take about two years to build and two to three more years to produce 500,000 vehicles a year.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 05:36:30 PM
”Plugging in 15% for Model 3 gross margin instead of 12.5% gives -184$M.”

Analysts I’ve seen on Twitter are estimating >=18% margin on the Model 3, due to the unexpectedly high percentage of higher-priced performance models and options (including Autopilot) purchased.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 02, 2018, 05:46:51 PM
... And this is only the beginning.

Quote
... we are accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory, which we expect to be a capital efficient and rapid build out, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America.

This bears repeating.  Tesla previously accelerated construction of the Gigafactory by two years, to go with moving the production start of the Model 3 up by two years after the unexpectedly huge intitial response to the car.  The China schedule was already seen as very aggressive, but now...!  Not impossible, since the China factory will only produce Model 3 (and Y), so Tesla knows exactly what is required to make the car — a car designed to be much easier to produce than the Model S and X.  And they’re already talking with China lithium producers.  No doubt they’ve already put in orders for robots and are in talks with suppliers.  Will be interesting to see if they incorporate as much vertical integration (e.g., making their own seats) as they do in Fremont.

From July, about the Tesla China Factory:
Quote
Tesla expects to begin construction in the near future, after it gets the necessary government approvals. From there, the plant will take about two years to build and two to three more years to produce 500,000 vehicles a year.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html

I wonder if Tesla in China could thrive if Tesla in the US goes bankrupt.  Rapid yet profitable expansion in China may be far more feasible.  We've previously seen in the forum examples of astonishing feats, I believe a train station was constructed in one day.  Or, finishing a 15-story hotel in 6 days:
Building a 15-story hotel in less than six days
https://newatlas.com/15-story-hotel-built-in-less-than-6-days/17711/ (https://newatlas.com/15-story-hotel-built-in-less-than-6-days/17711/)

A factory built to manufacture a well-defined product seems right up their alley.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 02, 2018, 06:18:35 PM
Plugging the announced numbers into CoverDrive's spreadsheet

Do you have a link for that? Seems like fun.
I guess this article is the basis. Open in incognito window.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never?page=4 (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never?page=4)
CoverDrive expected delivery of 79000 cars, with the actual number at 83500.
Plugging the actual sales numbers, I am getting -268$M (Not sure how the -334$M mentioned by Csnavywx was calculated). Plugging in 15% for Model 3 gross margin instead of 12.5% gives -184$M.
Note: I have no idea if the other numbers are realistic. ZEV remains an unknown.

It looks like your table didn't add "Other" into your Revenue and COGS calculation. If you add that in, gross profit drops and you get -334M.

Assuming an 18% gross margin (all other issues with that number nonwithstanding) still results in a -$150M loss.

On the flipside, assuming 0 for ZEV credit sales isn't really a good argument. While demand for them isn't particularly high, Tesla can always sell them at a decent discount and retrieve some of that notional value pretty easily. I think CoverDrive assumed 200M, which would result in a narrow +50M profit here with 18% gross margin. I'm not going quite that high and am guessing they narrowly miss a profit here.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 06:26:46 PM
InsideEVs’ first U.S. sales data is in for September.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
Image below.

Tesla Model 3 Sales Beyond Expectations: New Record In September
Quote
By our estimations, Tesla sold an epic 22,250 Model 3s in September in the U.S. Shocked? Of course, that’s the highest ever for sales of a single plug-in electric car in any month, beating the old mark set by the…Model 3. And it’s the first time ever an electric car surpassed 20,000 sales in a month in the U.S.

We estimate 1,540 Model 3s were delivered to Canada in Q3.

The Model 3 now stands alone as one atop the sales chart for the year with no other plug-in electric car capable of catching it. The YTD tally so far stands at 78,132. An untouchable figure. The highest volume of sales ever for an electric car in a single year was back in 2014 when LEAF sales hit 30,200. With three months of sales still remaining in 2018, the Model 3 sits at nearly double the LEAF’s record and well on track to blow way past 100,000 by year’s end. ...
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-record-september/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 06:52:54 PM
GM sales, in contrast, are way down:

GM Reports Q3 Sales Down 11%
Quote
General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) on Tuesday posted U.S. third-quarter sales of 694,638 vehicles, a decrease of 11.1% compared with the third quarter of 2017. Fleet deliveries amounted to about 21% of quarterly sales. At the end of the quarter, about one-third of GM’s sales were made for 2019 models.

For the year to date, GM has sold 2.17 million units, down by 1.2% over the same period last year. The Chevy Silverado pickup and Equinox sport utility vehicle are the company’s two best-selling vehicles.

GM no longer reports monthly sales. The fourth-quarter sales report is scheduled for release on January 3, 2019.
...
GM said average third-quarter incentive spending of 12% was slightly lower than the industry average of 12.1% in the quarter.

Third-quarter sales of the company’s top-selling Silverado pickup fell by 14.3% year over year to 133,329 units, while GMC Sierra sales dropped by 7.1% to 51,368 units. ...
https://247wallst.com/autos/2018/10/02/gm-reports-q3-sales-down-11/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 07:04:56 PM
Tesla starts setting the stage for the $35k base Model 3’s production ramp

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-base-model-3-35k-standard-trim-production-ramp/

Quote
Reservation holders in forums such as the r/TeslaMotors subreddit have also noted that the estimated timeline for the $35,000 base Model 3 has remained consistent over the past months. As of October 1, reservation holders are given a 3-6 month timeline for the production of the $35,000 electric sedan.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 07:09:34 PM
I guess I could be underestimating the depth of the well of stupidity. Maybe Tesla could issue a few billion dollars worth of stock and ppl would ignore the SEC and DOJ investigations, the myriad lawsuits, the continual cash burn, the quality control issue, the expiration of the incentive, the new competition, the burden of Solar City, and ppl would gobble it up. I've been assuming not, but maybe I'm wrong. This late in the business cycle it seems very unlikely though.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 07:11:17 PM
Tesla Sales Surge In The Netherlands In September
Quote
Tesla was the 5th most popular of all brands in September.

In the Netherlands, just like in Norway, passenger car registrations significantly decreased in September (down by 16.7% to 29,527). It’s explained by delays of certification of WLTP test results for many models that are now required in the European Union.  In such circumstances, electric cars shine. Tesla noted 1,645 new registrations in September (5,284 YTD), which was the 5th best brand (ahead of companies like Volkswagen).

Moreover, the Tesla Model S, with 1,052 registrations (3,376 YTD) was the second best-selling model for the month (3.6% market share)! First place went to Opel Karl (1,283). Tesla Model X noted 593 registrations (1,908 YTD).

Jaguar I-PACE had only 21 new registrations last month (59 YTD), which means it must be still production-constrained.

Sales of high-end, expensive electric cars are expected to remain high till the end of the year, as many customers intend to make a purchase before higher taxes are applied:
   •   Current BEV BIK tax: 4% for full price
   •   From January 1, 2019: 4% tax will be applied only to the amount of up to €50,000. The amount above €50,000 will be taxed 22%
Source: RAI Vereniging
https://insideevs.com/tesla-sales-surge-netherlands-september/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 07:13:45 PM
... And this is only the beginning.

Quote
... we are accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory, which we expect to be a capital efficient and rapid build out, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America.

This bears repeating. 

They haven't even begun construction. They haven't even hired a person to hire people. The whole plan takes the trade war into account 0%.  Oh, and they don't have the money to do much of anything, least of all break ground on a multi-billion dollar project.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 07:21:55 PM
They haven't even begun construction.

It is my understanding that the chinese are very fast at building factories.

Quote
They haven't even hired a person to hire people. The whole plan takes the trade war into account 0%.  Oh, and they don't have the money to do much of anything, least of all break ground on a multi-billion dollar project.

Quote
CEO Elon Musk has since confirmed that they plan to borrow money from local lenders and it looks like they already raised their registered capital to around $680 million according to local media reports, but there’s still a lot more to go.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/10/tesla-raises-680-million-gigafactory-3-china/

I think Gigafactory China will be operational faster than anyone thinks.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 02, 2018, 07:30:52 PM


They haven't even hired a person to hire people. The whole plan takes the trade war into account 0%. . .
. . .
I think Gigafactory China will be operational faster than anyone thinks.

I don't think the trade war needs to be much of an obstacle.  China's middle class is bigger than the population of the US.  The Chinese domestic market will more than suffice.

I'd guess that many Tesla parts are made in the US.  That could be a hiccup, if China asserts retaliatory tariffs on these items.  Still, if there's anything the Chinese economy excels in, it's manufacturing.  Parts supply issues seem unlikely to be more than a hiccup, at worst.

My sense is that Tesla-China is likely a far better investment than Tesla-US.  Alas, one can't currently invest in one without the other.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 02, 2018, 07:43:48 PM
It looks like your table didn't add "Other" into your Revenue and COGS calculation.
Indeed. Thanks!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2018, 07:51:51 PM
Tesla Is 2 Years Ahead Of Schedule On Gigafactory 1

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/01/tesla-is-2-years-ahead-of-schedule-on-gigafactory-1/

Quote
Tesla’s Gigafactory progress significantly bucks this trend. When the Gigafactory was first announced in early 2014, the plan was to hit 35 GWh of battery production in 2020. We covered the story extensively at that time, and saw Tesla and Panasonic formally sign onto the joint plan in July of 2014.

Related to bringing forward the timeline for the Model 3’s production in response to its massive and unexpected demand, at the start of 2017, Tesla announced an ambitious accelerated Gigafactory timeline. It brought the 35 GWh goal forward to the end of 2018. Given the focus on production delays of the Model 3 itself during the past couple of years, many of us (myself included) assumed that the seemingly over-ambitious Gigafactory production targets were likewise slipping.

But a couple of months ago (July 2018), news emerged that the accelerated Gigafactory production targets were indeed within reach by the Tesla–Panasonic partnership. Then, just last week, Zach covered the latest updates from Yoshio Ito, head of Panasonic’s automotive business. The news was of the further bringing forward the July plan, to even more quickly add 3 new production lines that were previously slated for “the the end of the year [2018].” This further advance means that the lines will be installed and operating well before the end of the year, thus giving real credence to the 35 GWh run rate being achievable by the end of 2018.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 07:59:15 PM
Tesla China, From July and August:

July 11: “Shanghai’s government will help Tesla complete the plant as soon as possible, Huang said at the briefing about measures to further open up the local economy to international businesses and investors.” $TSLA
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1017022220055375872

vincent (@vincent13031925). 8/7/18, 11:38 PM
1/ Beijing time, Aug 8 morning news, according to Bloomberg News quoted people familiar with the news, China's largest banks are actively discussing with the Shanghai gov, intends to provide some financing support for Tesla's factory in Shanghai. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1027036354033549314
2/ People familiar with the matter said that at least four banks have begun to evaluate the loan, and some banks have signed confidentiality agreements with the Shanghai government and Tesla, and are currently in serious negotiations. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla


vincent (@vincent13031925). 8/10/18, 6:19 AM
Tesla continues to hire talents on a large scale in China:
On Thursday afternoon 8/9/18, the Tesla website listed 22 opening positions in China Shanghai, 16 of them are related to the upcoming China Gigafactory. #Tesla #TeslaChina $TSLA
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1027861956550508544

vincent (@vincent13031925) 8/6/18, 10:47 PM
1/ Tesla China Shanghai Gigafactory is currently recruiting the first batch of technicians on a large scale. On August 5th, Tesla released the position on its official WeChat for the first time. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1026661000915767296
2/ Positions including EPC engineering director, government affairs project manager, construction manager, civil engineer, electrical design engineer, mechanical designer and legal consultant, senior financial manager. Recruiters, etc. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 08:02:26 PM
Bob Lutz actually fairly optimistic on Tesla (by his standards). But I think it is based on the false premise that Tesla's SEC investigations are behind them. The 420 tweet issue seemed to be solved, but Musk almost immediately started testing the waters and pushing the limits of the agreement, which still needs to be signed off on by I judge I believe. I'm quite sure there is also an SEC investigation into Tesla reservation numbers. AND there is a DOJ investigation which the public doesn't know anything about (but based on the inability to retain finance execs, is probably no joke).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVaXaDsGb2g
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 08:12:40 PM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:

1)Why hasn't Tesla raised capital in 18 months?

2)Why haven't there been any insider sales this year?

3)Why has the rate of executive departures increased as the company supposedly nears profitability?

4)Why can't Tesla retain a Chief Accounting Officer?



And anecdotally: WHY do these things, in light of federal investigations, increasingly erratic CEO behavior, and suspicious guidance NOT WORRY YOU?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 08:50:18 PM
Bloomberg Tracker:  Well, our TOTAL number was accurate! ;)

Tom Randall (@tsrandall)
10/2/18, 9:13 AM
Tesla reported its quarterly production and delivery numbers today. The Bloomberg Model 3 tracker came within 0.4 percent, or less than 220 cars
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Telsa Q3 production 53,239
Bloomberg’s estimate: 53,457
Wall Street Consensus: 50,416

https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1047112313726259200
We’ve also just made some pretty big change to how our Model 3 Tracker displays the weekly rate. Most notably, we’re switching to a 13-week trailing estimate (rolling quarter) to avoid the erratic highs and lows in the data. More about the changes here: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
This should be a welcome change for many who have (rightly) criticized our weekly estimates for their wild swings. Nothing changed with the model, just in how the data are displayed as a trailing average, which should be more stable and give you a better sense of trajectory 2/
This should also alleviate concerns by some that Tesla might be "gaming" our model during times of vulnerability. We never really ascribed much to the theory, but by using a quarterly average rate it should mitigation the potential for funny business 3/
We've also made some smaller changes, like showing our latest estimates for the current quarter and a table tracking our historic accuracy (so far so good). https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Quote
The most notable change is that we’re switching to a 13-week trailing average (rolling quarter) for our weekly estimates. Our tracker, by design, is focused on long-term accuracy over short-term forecasting. In that regard, we’ve been successful, beating the Wall Street consensus every quarter since the model’s introduction in February.

However, we also included our model's weekly rate to give readers some sense of Tesla's trajectory and ability to hit CEO Elon Musk's weekly production targets. The weekly estimates have been far less reliable and subject to misinterpretation. The VIN datasets were simply too noisy to accurately forecast production for any given week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 08:52:39 PM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:

Clearly we can’t.  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 09:23:31 PM
“maybe the China Gigafactory is already done... ;D
See below video.”
https://twitter.com/ericsteiman/status/1047178257257390080

30-Story Building Built In 15 Days (Time Lapse)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwvmru5JmXk
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2018, 09:45:32 PM
Find the niche product among these top-selling sedans in the U.S. ;)

Quote
The Camry is the best selling Mid sized sedan in the U.S.
Accord represents the consumers choice due to Camry sales heavily rely on Fleet purchases (Taxi and Rental). ...
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1047137115987832832
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1047144649301741568
Images below.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 02, 2018, 09:54:15 PM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:

Clearly we can’t.  ;D

wtf ???

so you ignore it and just post every positive story you can find? thats pathetic
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 02, 2018, 11:01:15 PM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:
1)Why hasn't Tesla raised capital in 18 months?
2)Why haven't there been any insider sales this year?
3)Why has the rate of executive departures increased as the company supposedly nears profitability?
4)Why can't Tesla retain a Chief Accounting Officer?
And anecdotally: WHY do these things, in light of federal investigations, increasingly erratic CEO behavior, and suspicious guidance NOT WORRY YOU?
I think you imagine the number of bulls here to be much higher than it actually is. Here is a response from an occasional bull (I think the stock is generally overvalued, but I like to buy the dips from time to time):
1) Because they didn't need more capital.
2) Dunno. Not sure why this is a bad sign.
3) At least some of them were offered promotions elsewhere. Also, the work is hectic, the future of the company seems dubious according to all the obsessive shorts, maybe some of them did not fit so well.
4) Dunno. I expect this to be resolved.
Federal investigations - not interesting. CEO behavior - could be improved.  Suspicious guidance - not sure what you mean. This quarter they delivered above what they guided. Financial numbers (profit, cash flow) need to be audited first, esp. under SEC scrutiny.
What does worry me is when they have production hell, delivery hell, and other things which expose imperfect long-term planning. And when they seem to lose focus, such as making car carriers, or accelerating China investment before securing cash flow to guarantee solvency in 2019 with good safety margins. Although I think the probability of bankruptcy is quite low, it is still not close enough to zero. For a company with a mission to change the world, working with thin safety margins is bad.
But then again, they developed and built and sold hundreds of thousands of EVs where all failed before them, and with highly satisfied customers, so I guess they are doing something right.

Can a Tesla bear explain why not wait patiently for the certain imminent bankruptcy, instead of trying to beat people over the head with it every day?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 02, 2018, 11:47:04 PM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:

Clearly we can’t.  ;D

wtf ???

so you ignore it and just post every positive story you can find? thats pathetic
And some of us have other things to do that have a higher priority. People do get bored eventually. I am most of the time quite content to wait and see.

After all, if TESLA fails, the vultures will swoop down for the fire sale and EVs will continue to roll off the production line.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 02, 2018, 11:59:56 PM
so you ignore it and just post every positive story you can find? thats pathetic

That's what this thread is all about!  :D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 03, 2018, 12:06:20 AM
Quote
A secondary mystery to me is why does everyone on this forum put up with Sigmetnow's non-stop obsession in FLOODING so many threads with so much USELESS garbage from the know-nothing Media Pundits and other posts quoting so many fools including from Musk and Tesla and extremely manipulative deceptive websites?

If you wish to swim in an information sewer then this is right way to go about it. It's sick. It;s pathological that this is accepted behavior that is not properly moderated by Neven and other participants out of the Forum entirely.
Your way with words is commendable, showing proper decorum. Just for balance, I really enjoy Sigmetnow's updates all over this forum (not just the technological stuff). She saves me the need to browse an endless number of websites and twitter feeds. If some of these updates are on the positive side of things, I can use my own filtering as needed. Her posts are short and to the point, I wish that was true for some other certain posters here.
I also seem to remember she has reported to be invested in Tesla, I'm not sure why this should allow or disallow anyone to post stuff. (I am occasionally long via options, who cares?)

i as well appreciate 90% of SN's posts and highly respekt the work and know how that often shows but that does not mean that everything is right.

i would just prefer if all this went without personal attacks, they lead nowhere and people who contribute a lot are allowed to err or stick to their point a bit longer than others ;)

however i certainly believe that musk has become a problem to the case lately.

further i disagree with SN about batteries (in their current state) as a solution. would there be as many battery powered cars as ICE cars we would probably even face bigger problems (environmental and civil) than we ever had with fossil energy sources.

of course all this can develop like a modern ICE burns a third of the fuel with twice the power than 40 years ago, but that did not solve the problem but postponed the solutions.

i really enjoyed those bashings above except the personal part, it's really not imaginable that any spot in a BMW, VW or Mercedes plant looks that way but then who knows, one finds everywhere something, taken a bit out of context that makes a bad appearance, interesting but not necessarily relevant.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 01:23:07 AM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:

Clearly we can’t.  ;D

wtf ???

so you ignore it and just post every positive story you can find? thats pathetic

I don’t see why I should waste my time researching links for you that explain that Tesla’s corporate turnover is much like the Silicon Valley businesses in the area; or that working for Tesla is much more stressful than most companies, with some people working seven days a week, being ordered home, and sneaking back in; and people loving the challenge but after a time needing a period away from the business to recharge.  Would it improve your view of Tesla at all if I did?  It seems pretty clear you have already made up your mind as to the answers to your questions. 

Instead, I will focus on Tesla’s success, while you continue to concern troll.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 01:28:05 AM
Here’s a link to a ~30 minute CNBC interview about Tesla with Ron Baron.  Midway through there is a discussion of the stock market in general, but they return to the topic with a surprising prediction about Tesla’s future.  This is after the SEC settlement, but before Tesla’s September numbers were announced.

 CNBC's full interview with Ron Baron:  youtu.be/u29B-xnm2Gw
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 01:42:09 AM
The bears were wrong.  Tesla met its production and delivery guidance for Q3.

Mark McMillen (@EthicsGradient) 10/2/18, 9:17 AM
Quote
$TSLA beat every one of these estimates.
https://twitter.com/ethicsgradient/status/1047113298125062145
Image below.



Here’s a HyperChange video on the Tesla Q3 numbers announced today.  Doubling quarter over quarter!

HyperChange (@HyperChangeTV) 10/2/18, 4:16 PM
full analysis of $TSLA's Q3 production & delivery report
youtu.be/kH0atHjZ7XM
https://twitter.com/hyperchangetv/status/1047218906358800384
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 03, 2018, 03:10:08 AM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:
1)Why hasn't Tesla raised capital in 18 months?
2)Why haven't there been any insider sales this year?
3)Why has the rate of executive departures increased as the company supposedly nears profitability?
4)Why can't Tesla retain a Chief Accounting Officer?
And anecdotally: WHY do these things, in light of federal investigations, increasingly erratic CEO behavior, and suspicious guidance NOT WORRY YOU?
I think you imagine the number of bulls here to be much higher than it actually is. Here is a response from an occasional bull (I think the stock is generally overvalued, but I like to buy the dips from time to time):

"1) Because they didn't need more capital."

absolutely false. they are behind on all sorts of bills, and they don't have capital for the china factory, the model Y, the Semi, the Roadster, or the constant cash burn...

"2) Dunno. Not sure why this is a bad sign."

Because typically there are fairly frequent sales or at least a portion of employees/former-employees shares. The fact that there have not been, quite likely indicates that execs are privy to negative information which is not public and thus if they sold shares, they could be risking insider trading charges. I have explained this in detail before. I don't understand the willful ignorance.

"3) At least some of them were offered promotions elsewhere. Also, the work is hectic, the future of the company seems dubious according to all the obsessive shorts, maybe some of them did not fit so well."

High and increasing executive turnover is often a sign of a distressed company. They know more than the public and they choose to cut ties with the company. It's not a complicated concept. The spike right before "profitability" really does not make sense according to the "Bull Thesis".

"4) Dunno. I expect this to be resolved."

I have no idea why, other than sheer hopium. Tesla has not had a CAO sign off on anything in at least 7 months. Since then two CAO have left. The most recent one left without signing a single financial statement. Since a CAO has signed anything relevant, news has broke that the company is under SEC AND DOJ investigation. There were 39 days between Enron admitting they were "complying and hopeful for a quick resolution" with the DOJ and them filing for BANKRUPTCY. It has been 14 days since Tesla admitted they were "complying and hopeful for a quick resolution" with the DOJ.

"Federal investigations - not interesting."

interesting perspective.

"CEO behavior - could be improved."

understatement of the millennium .

Suspicious guidance - not sure what you mean."

come on. seriously? 420,000 remaining reservations? mentions of profitability in Q3 and Q4 vanishing? no need to raise capital? seriously?

Can a Tesla bear explain why not wait patiently for the certain imminent bankruptcy, instead of trying to beat people over the head with it every day?

it is so odd that you think that bears should be quite while bulls constantly hype. soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo intellectually dishonest i'm not sure how else to address this.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 03, 2018, 03:26:16 AM
The bears were wrong.  Tesla met its production and delivery guidance for Q3.

I'll use this as a teaching opportunity rather than insulting you. THIS is what a straw man argument is. Has anyone on here claimed that production or deliveries would be significantly under guidance for Q3...NO. Implying that they have is making a straw man argument.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 03, 2018, 05:24:40 AM
1)Why hasn't Tesla raised capital in 18 months?

Because they don't have to and they don't want to.

 They don't have to because they cash flow is about to get a huge bump and the bump will increase for as long as production increases. That happens if Q3 is profitable or not.

They don't want to because they were in a a high expenditure low cash phase, making some forms of raise more expensive.

2)Why haven't there been any insider sales this year?

Because they like money.

3)Why has the rate of executive departures increased as the company supposedly nears profitability?

Some of them simply finished their useful time in the company. Some were probably exhausted. Others got offers they couldn't refuse. Others, some key ones that I will not mention by name, because they fumbled or couldn't deliver.  This fourth group explains some important departures, but I'm sure these people are top people and probably helped the company for years. 

I have no wish to speak ill of them if they failed at some impossible task.

4)Why can't Tesla retain a Chief Accounting Officer?

Why would they? Their Chief Financial Officer is doing a banging job at it. Why rush to spend the money in the position? Maybe if the CFO needs some more time or if they find a really good candidate then they hire.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 03, 2018, 10:53:30 AM
No, it's pretty normal in today's world and especially in a fast growing new business.

Can you give a single example of a company with a market cap over $1 billion where this is normal?

It is called Agile.  Look it up.  Agile is not just about software development, it is about the way in which you get things done.

If you are doing release trains over a 3 month cadence with two week sprints and post release train analysis and enhancement, it would fit 100% with what Tesla is doing right now.

That is not madness, that is SMARTNESS.  Or are the vast majority of companies in the world, today, insane??

Tesla do not have 100 years of baggage to slow them down or tie them to any historical model, they are free to use whatever model works.

In agile you set targets and do your best to strive to achieve them.  When you fail, you analyse why, fix that problem and then go for an even more ambitious target afterwards.

Agile is all about Fail Faster. Because it is all about getting the failures out there and fixing them so that you can do better in the next SHORT iteration.

Go back and look at what Tesla has been doing, what it has been setting as targets and what it has been achieving.

Just because the analysts and pundits have never seen Agile applied in this way in manufacturing before does not mean it is bad.  It just means they are badly out of date.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 03, 2018, 11:08:33 AM
It does not matter whit Tesla's Q3 production and sales if in Jnauary 2019 they cannot refinancie their committments at a longterm profictable rate.

It most certainly does if a slim but sustainable Q3 profit raises Tesla shares over the conversion threshold, allowing Tesla to retain the cash in the bank and add to it in Q4.

In that case hitting Q3 targets and making a profit, _any_ profit, in Q3 is not only important; it is vital.

Given a profit in Q3, production reaching 7,000 cars per week in Q4 and a much larger profit in Q4 and Tesla has options.  They can sell shares or they can refinance.  It ALL depends on a Q3 profit, high Q4 production and a repeatable profit in Q4.

Given those conditions, the sorts are going to get their short hairs burned off, Tesla is going to boom and everyone who sold them down the river is going to get their comeuppance.

This is the crux.  Profit in Q3 and increased profit in Q4.  Something Tesla has never done before.  It will be the emergence of Tesla from startup to mature company.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 03, 2018, 11:25:59 AM
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:

1)Why hasn't Tesla raised capital in 18 months?

2)Why haven't there been any insider sales this year?

3)Why has the rate of executive departures increased as the company supposedly nears profitability?

4)Why can't Tesla retain a Chief Accounting Officer?



And anecdotally: WHY do these things, in light of federal investigations, increasingly erratic CEO behavior, and suspicious guidance NOT WORRY YOU?

1. Because every short on the planet is saying Tesla can't become profitable.  If they raise more debt the shorts will become self justified and short tesla more.

Tesla needs higher stock prices more than they need more money.

2. Because if Musk was really serious about going private, then he would want to issue those stocks as private not public as it makes the whole picture easier.  I know you don't believe that was ever the goal, but there is evidence that these discussions had been going on.  You do not have discussions on going private and, at the same time, make it more difficult to go private. That is REAL insanity.

3.  Read my post on using Agile to base your business model on.  Have you ever heard of Agile burnout (https://www.knowledgehut.com/blog/agile/how-to-eliminate-burnout-and-make-agile-teams-more-productive)?  The SAFE agile model was designed to stop Agile destroying teams.

If you want my twopenneth worth, they've moved on because they no longer want to burn their days 18 hours a day  just to keep up.


4. As with 3 above.  Do you know how many FD's are comfortable with agile as a total business methodology?  I'd guess at about 99% less than CEO's who want to base their entire IT capability on it. That would mean less than the number of fingers on my right hand.

So you secure a FD, they come in and see how the company is operating and then they leave.  Why can't Tesla just grow one from inside the company?  Because the markets won't accept that at the current level of debt and exposure.  Ergo a self fulfilling prophecy.


Or they could just be a SCAM and taking people's money.  Pity the staff don't know that or they could just take it easy and churn out 2,000 Model 3's a week.  After all, if you are not really trying to deliver why bother???

Occam's razor is not just the simplest answer, it is the simplest answer which correctly fits the picture.  Saying Tesla is a SCAM whilst Tesla are producing constant volume premium cars and ever increasing volume of Model 3's is not possible.  Because scam is not consistent with the actions.

Just because you and the market cannot understand the actions does not mean that the whole thing is a scam.  It just means that you can't understand why they are doing what they are doing.

Neither can I, fully, but I do expect that they will deliver more than has ever been expected.  Whether they cross the Jan Q1 hurdle or not.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 03, 2018, 02:21:23 PM
NeilT, nothing you just said makes any sense. Not really anything more to be said here. I'll do my best not to post and let y'all enjoy mars.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 03, 2018, 02:54:07 PM
NeilT, nothing you just said makes any sense. Not really anything more to be said here. I'll do my best not to post and let y'all enjoy mars.

So you only want to educate yourself on things you already know??
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 03:03:42 PM
SUSTAINABLE PROFITABILITY

Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update [SEC Regulated Document ;) ]
Quote
For the rest of this year, total non-GAAP operating expenses should remain relatively stable at Q2 levels excluding restructuring costs, as a result of our overall drive towards operating efficiencies. The higher import duties on Chinese components and unfavorable currency movements are likely to cause negative pressures. That said, we still expect to achieve GAAP profitability in Q3 and Q4. Going forward, we believe Tesla can achieve sustained quarterly profits, absent a severe force majeure or economic downturn, while continuing to grow at a rapid pace. We expect to generate positive cash including operating cash flows and capital expenditures, as well as the normal inflow of cash received from non-recourse financing activities on leased vehicles and solar products.
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712

Edited Transcript of TSLA earnings conference call or presentation 1-Aug-18 9:30pm GMT
Quote
James Joseph Albertine, Consumer Edge Research, LLC - Senior Analyst of Automotive & Managing Partner [47]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appreciate all the color you've been providing. Wanted to dig a little bit deeper though in terms of capital spending plans. Considering your growth you've identified in China with the Model Y, we believe also in the EU, it's been discussed about a factory there. How do you plan to fund all of this growth without going back to the capital markets to raise funds? And can you verify for us whether or not there is a notice from a regulator that would prevent you from raising outside capital?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Elon R. Musk, Tesla, Inc. - Co-Founder, Chairman, CEO & Product Architect [48]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We do not -- we'll not be raising any equity at any point, at least that's -- I have no expectation of doing so, do not plan to do so. For China, I think, we -- our default plan would be to use essentially a loan from local banks in China and fund the Gigafactory in Shanghai with local debt essentially. And there are so many -- we could raise money, but I think we don't need to, and we -- yes, I think it's better to just not to.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deepak Ahuja, Tesla, Inc. - CFO [49]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, we're executing on an operating plan that keeps us sufficiently self-funded, despite our CapEx needs and our debts maturing and still keep a very healthy balance on our balance sheet.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Elon R. Musk, Tesla, Inc. - Co-Founder, Chairman, CEO & Product Architect [50]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes. We're -- our default plan is we pay -- starting paying off our debts. I don't mean refi-ing another (inaudible). For example, this convert that's coming due soon, a couple hundred million, $900 million (inaudible) or something like that. We expect to pay that off with internally generated cash flow.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deepak Ahuja, Tesla, Inc. - CFO [51]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And still be -- still have a healthy cash balance.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Elon R. Musk, Tesla, Inc. - Co-Founder, Chairman, CEO & Product Architect [52]
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-tsla-earnings-conference-052859655.html

——

ACHIEVE SUSTAINABLE PROFITABILITY
Development is a key aspect of any business. Every business has the long-term goal of continuous improvement and profitability. Sustainable profitability for a business means that an organisation provides a service or product that is both profitable and environmentally friendly.
https://www.challenge.org/sustainable-profitability/


Sustainable Profit
Quote
This paper introduces the concept of Sustainable Profit that reconciles sustainability and corporate profitability. It is argued that on the one hand the conventional notion of profitability is too shortsighted as it is exclusively related to economic capital and turns a blind eye on the fact that corporate profits depend on the use of a whole bundle of different economic, natural, and social forms of capital. On the other hand the prevailing approaches to corporate sustainability are misconceived as they are either burden-oriented or instrumentally subordinate sustainability issues to profit goals. Sustainable Profit adopts a broad view that includes all forms of economic, environmental and social capital used in companies. It reconceptualizes the notion of corporate profitability by integrating corporate contributions to sustainability and the strive for profits.
http://www.sustainablevalue.com/downloads/postersustainableprofit.pdf
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on October 03, 2018, 03:04:22 PM
GSY:

Tesla’s battery business is booming amid Model 3 struggles

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Tesla-s-battery-business-is-booming-amid-Model-13213871.php

Quote
Quietly, another element of Tesla’s business has been booming.

Deployment of Tesla’s stationary batteries — designed to supply electricity to homes, businesses or the power grid — surged 450 percent during the first half of 2018, according to the company.
 
Tesla has now installed enough batteries worldwide — from Australia to Vermont — to store 1 gigawatt hour of electricity, roughly the output of one commercial nuclear reactor running for one hour. The company expects to double that amount in the next nine to 12 months.


First of all, you're treating Tesla as a car company.  That is only ONE of the primary pieces of Tesla.  Likely the more profitable piece is the battery piece (which for their financials is rolled in with the "solar roofing" piece).

You see ..... Tesla's battery business is up by 450% for the first half of this year over last year.  And if you haven't heard yet ..... there is a LONG WAY TO GO UNTIL THE WORLD TRANSITIONS TO RENEWABLE ENERGY.  And if you also haven't heard ..... the cost of renewable energy + batteries is knocking out the "peaker" business of natural gas turbines ...... as well as old dirty coal.  Their battery business is knocking it out of the park ..... and businesses with flat rooftops are adding solar quickly AND NEED THEIR BATTERIES.

I suspect in future years ..... talking about 3 years from now ...... Tesla will be focusing more and more on TRUCKS (both semi's as well as pickup trucks) ...... since THAT is the segment of the transportation industry that will NOT be suffering from the EVENTUAL pullback in the use of PASSENGER CARS (which has ALREADY started in a SMALL WAY ..... but will pick up steam in the 2021 - 2025 time frame).

If you are doing any renovations around your home ..... and you like wallpaper ...... you can always use your put options to wallpaper your home (after they expire ..... I am curious to know what your average expiration date AND average strike price are though ;)).

You can't look at Tesla as "just" a car company.  They are a transportation AND renewable energy company.   
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 03:36:06 PM
The bears were wrong.  Tesla met its production and delivery guidance for Q3.
I'll use this as a teaching opportunity rather than insulting you. THIS is what a straw man argument is. Has anyone on here claimed that production or deliveries would be significantly under guidance for Q3...NO. Implying that they have is making a straw man argument.

O.M.G.   Did I say that comment referred to anyone here?  Even after I explained to you previously that was not the case, your ego is so massive you keep insisting everything written here must naturally be all about you.  The world is bigger than this forum, and yes, I do read negative things about Tesla other than your tiresome rants.


Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/2/18, 7:18 AM.     teslafudtracker.com shows moderate FUD in the last week. Above-normal FUD from @businessinsider is expected to continue with rapid hit pieces up to and through the upcoming report. Hurricane Deliveries could strengthen to Category 3 later this week.
$TSLA #FUDForecast $TSLAQ
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1047083425029677057
Two charts below.

Quote
CleanTechnica (@cleantechnica) 10/1/18, 8:41 PM
858 Tesla Headlines: 563 Negative & 122 Positive — #Pravduh About #Tesla In September
https://twitter.com/cleantechnica/status/1046923045162688518
Third chart below.  Article link, at the link.

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/1/18, 11:44 PM
@cleantechnica Something especially weird going on with Yahoo news feed on iPhone stocks app. Almost always super negative. Maybe getting gamed.
<< Usually that’s the case but my feed right now looks pretty great. Especially the top right corner  ;)
Elon Musk:  Could be worse [halo emoji]
<< Acceptable tweet. ;D
Last image below
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 04:23:36 PM
No plug-in vehicle has ever achieved this before.

Tesla Model 3 Races Past Toyota Corolla In U.S. Passenger Car Sales
Model 3 leaves all luxury and plug-in competition behind, charts with mainstream ICE passenger cars instead.

Quote
Here in the EV world, the Tesla Model 3 tends to be compared to its perceived competitors in the luxury sedan market or the plug-in market. This is understandable, but is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Moving forward, the Model 3 will be leaving most EV and luxury competition behind.

Based on numbers reported by GoodCarBadCar last month, the Model 3 charted a course for the top 5 of passenger car sales in August. This placed Model 3 sales in between the Hyundai Elantra (15,475) and the Toyota Corolla Family (26,155).  Needless to say, no plug-in vehicle has ever achieved this before. It will be quite some time before any other plug-in vehicle will pull it off.

Now it looks like the Model 3 has cleared that next hurdle and passed the Corolla Family in sales. Corolla sales dropped to 20,797 this month. Allowing the best selling electric sedan to slip by it in sales with an estimated 22,250 deliveries in September.  This, despite the fact that the Model 3 base model is not yet available and the fact that Tesla continues to have bottlenecks holding back deliveries in many U.S. locations.

So, what is the next car to be dethroned as the Model 3 climbs the passenger car sales charts? If Tesla can keep up this pace, the Honda Accord, Civic and Toyota Camry had better keep a close eye on their rearview mirrors. The Teslas are coming!

We look forward to watching the Model 3 continue to grow for the remainder of the year as Tesla launches the short-range model and extends deliveries into global markets.

Source: Toyota
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-pass-toyota-corolla/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on October 03, 2018, 04:35:48 PM
The bears were wrong.  Tesla met its production and delivery guidance for Q3.

I'll use this as a teaching opportunity rather than insulting you. THIS is what a straw man argument is. Has anyone on here claimed that production or deliveries would be significantly under guidance for Q3...NO. Implying that they have is making a straw man argument.

So, posting bloomberg tracker graph image showing a sharp fall in numbers more than once was not a 'claim that production or deliveries would be significantly under guidance for Q3'

I guess it is possible for you to believe this is true, but at best it is on a technicality that you posted graph but didn't mention guidance for Q3. Personally I think there certainly is enough implications in your posts that Tesla is in terrible shape and couldn't continue producing at the 5k per week rate that I don't think calling that argument a strawman works.

if I need words rather than just graphs, consider for example
Building 5,000 model 3s in a tent in the last week of June makes no longer term business sense...it only makes sense if you are trying to continue a ponzi scheme and need some point you are able to hype ....

If you thought they were going to continue at 5000 per week rate, then why did you post the graph and why call it a ponzi scheme? If you accept the cars are real, just that they are going to create loads of warranty issues then it isn't a ponzi scheme. That is just a quality issue and the reality is that you, like the rest of us, don't know how difficult it will be to sort out warranty and quality issues but you are just intent on playing up all issues due to (for lack of any other suitable term) your hatred of Tesla. Your motivated reasoning shows through very clearly and this undermines everything you say.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 04:40:37 PM
“Not only achieve a profit, but become sustainably profitable.”

Tesla Q3 Production Eclipses 80,000: Deliveries Exceed 83,000
“That result should be able to achieve break even (small net profit or negligible net loss), while an increase of sales above 100,000 cars a quarter (probably what we’ll see in Q4) should translate to profits.”

Romit Shah, an analyst at Instinet, said on the Bloomberg Markets and Finance program, that Tesla can not only achieve profit, but become sustainably profitable.

(Click on “Watch on YouTube” to view.)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0SLI543VMc
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2018, 05:01:47 PM
”First it was America’s best-selling electric car. Then it became the best-selling luxury car. Now, against the odds, Tesla Inc.’s Model 3 is becoming one of the best-selling sedans in America, period.

Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans
For the first time, an electric vehicle outsells all but a handful of Toyota and Honda cars.
Tom Randall.  October 3, 2018
Quote
Automakers on Tuesday reported monthly and quarterly sales totals. For the three months that ended in September, Tesla delivered more Model 3s than all but four of the top sedans sold in the U.S., regardless of size or price.

It’s an imperfect ranking because Tesla didn’t break out sales by country, and the Model 3 tally included some deliveries to customers in Canada. And the climb comes at a time when Americans prefer crossovers, SUVs and truck by an ever-wider margin. Nonetheless, the third-quarter showing was unprecedented for an electric car and a remarkable turnabout for Tesla, which struggled for much of the last year to mass-produce the sedan.

Tesla’s competitors are feeling it. Sales of the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, the best-selling luxury sedan in the U.S., plunged 24 percent last month and are down 28 percent for the year through September.

BMW AG’s namesake brand barely managed to eke out an increase last month, on the strength of its X3 crossover. “Tesla is now ramping up their volumes, and it’s putting pressure on that market segment,” Bernhard Kuhnt, chief executive officer of BMW North America, said of the luxury sedan space in an interview Tuesday. “In that environment, I’m very, very pleased to say we were up.”

BMW unveiled a revamped version of its signature 3 Series sedan Tuesday at the Paris auto show. Its next battery-electric vehicle, the iX3, won’t be ready until 2020. By then, Daimler AG’s Mercedes and Volkswagen AG’s Audi and Porsche brands should have a slate of electric contenders. Jaguar plans to start delivering its electric I-Pace to U.S. customers next month. It’s unclear if any of these offerings will have enough appeal to give internal combustion cars a run for their money.

For now, Tesla is the first and only electric car to break into the ranks that are dominated by Japanese and Korean carmakers. And it’s doing so at a higher price than other mass-market cars. The most expensive versions of the Model 3 are currently the most popular, with an average selling price approaching $60,000. Tesla says cheaper versions starting at $35,000—designed to appeal to a wider group of buyers—may be coming around the end of the year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-03/tesla-s-model-3-is-becoming-one-of-america-s-best-selling-sedans
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 04, 2018, 03:42:59 AM
The bears were wrong.  Tesla met its production and delivery guidance for Q3.

I'll use this as a teaching opportunity rather than insulting you. THIS is what a straw man argument is. Has anyone on here claimed that production or deliveries would be significantly under guidance for Q3...NO. Implying that they have is making a straw man argument.

So, posting bloomberg tracker graph image showing a sharp fall in numbers more than once was not a 'claim that production or deliveries would be significantly under guidance for Q3'

I guess it is possible for you to believe this is true, but at best it is on a technicality that you posted graph but didn't mention guidance for Q3. Personally I think there certainly is enough implications in your posts that Tesla is in terrible shape and couldn't continue producing at the 5k per week rate that I don't think calling that argument a strawman works.

if I need words rather than just graphs, consider for example
Building 5,000 model 3s in a tent in the last week of June makes no longer term business sense...it only makes sense if you are trying to continue a ponzi scheme and need some point you are able to hype ....

If you thought they were going to continue at 5000 per week rate, then why did you post the graph and why call it a ponzi scheme? If you accept the cars are real, just that they are going to create loads of warranty issues then it isn't a ponzi scheme. That is just a quality issue and the reality is that you, like the rest of us, don't know how difficult it will be to sort out warranty and quality issues but you are just intent on playing up all issues due to (for lack of any other suitable term) your hatred of Tesla. Your motivated reasoning shows through very clearly and this undermines everything you say.

they aren't producing 5k / week. so i have no idea what you are going on about
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 04, 2018, 10:44:16 AM
they aren't producing 5k / week. so i have no idea what you are going on about

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-q3-production-and-delivery-numbers/

Quote
During the third quarter, Tesla produced a total of 80,142 electric cars, 50% more than the company’s prior all-time high in Q2 2018. Tesla produced 53,239 Model 3, as well as 26,903 Model S and X vehicles.

Deliveries for Q3 totaled 83,500 vehicles, comprised of 55,840 Model 3, as well as 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X.

83,500 vehicles delivered in Q3 translates to 6,423 per week.
80,142 produced in Q3 translates to 6,164 per week.

So your remark that "they aren't producing 5k / week" appears to be unfounded.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 04, 2018, 11:24:29 AM
Tesla did "promise" 5k model 3/week a long while ago, and even though it's happening in certain weeks, the average rate has still not reach that threshold in Q3. Tesla knew ahead of time that it was not going to happen, hence the guidance for 50-55k model 3 in Q3, rather than 65k or more.
My take is that it's more difficult to scale up than they thought. The plan of full automation was ahead of its time, partly due to their lack of experience in mass production, and Elon's grand vision which in this case was a bit too much. And I'm sure supply chain management (and delivery chain) contributed as well.
However, I think the constant criticism is unjustified. They moved the schedule 2 years ahead, and they rolled it about 1 year back. Elon made grand promises and then had trouble living up to them (though he didn't admit it), but this pales in comparison to the actual achievement of making the first profitable + highly desirable + mass market EV. Calling this a scam is nonsense.
I expect that once they gain experience with the current rate of manufacturing, they'll be able to engineer away the bottlenecks and streamline costs, hopefully resulting in the "base" version launch in the next few months.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 04, 2018, 12:22:29 PM
"Work expands to fill the time available for its completion."

I wish climate science took advantage of that phenomenon like Tesla does. Agile development works. It's a hack of human psychology.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: crandles on October 04, 2018, 02:33:21 PM
Think the 5k/wk rate refers only to model 3. 53,329 is nicely in the 50-55K guidance. If they were only doing around 3k/wk in first 4 or 5 weeks of the quarter then it seems like they have averaged 4.5k/wk in the last couple of months. Am I concerned about 4.5k vs 5k in last couple of months? Not really, what matters more is whether they can consistently get above 6k without a lot more capital expenditure in the near future.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 04, 2018, 03:51:02 PM
get real ppl. tesla promised 5,000 model 3s a week by the end of 2017. they still are not there. there are lots all over the country storing about 10,000 model 3s (with more every day), many of which have "inventory" written on them. tesla's claim that they had 420,000 reservations remaining was pure nonsense....who could have seem that coming. when someone lies about things consistently and you still take them at their word, that is willful ignorance. please leave me alone, and i'll leave you alone.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2018, 04:01:55 PM
At this point, if Tesla is a ‘failure,’ most other car companies are a catastrophe — all but a few dropped in sales Year over Year, while Tesla sales quadrupled.

Quote
For September Tesla had the highest market share in the US of ALL premium manufactures 2.39% followed by Lexus at 1.9% - impressive lead!!
https://twitter.com/rorojo10/status/1047179881497296896

US Deliveries:
Porsche 55,403 in all of 2017
Jaguar 39,594 in all of 2017
Tesla 69,925* in Q3 alone

*est by @InsideEV insideevs.com/tesla-sales-ag…
https://twitter.com/joelsapp/status/1047579447107510272
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2018, 04:07:36 PM
US SALES September 2018:
Toyota Camry 27,640
Honda Accord  25,357
Honda Civic 24,806
Tesla Model 3 22,250
Toyota Corolla 20,797
—-

”What is particularly impressive with the Model 3 is that the vehicle is priced higher than its competitors at the top of the passenger car segment. If the Model 3 did beat the Corolla Family’s September sales numbers, it would mean that the electric car, whose selling price currently averages $60,000 (only premium variants are available for now), just outsold a vehicle that tops out at $22,730 (Corolla Family XSE). With Tesla seemingly setting the stage for the $35,000 base Model 3, cars like the Honda Civic and the Toyota Camry could find themselves facing some steep competition.”

Tesla’s more experienced rivals in the US auto market are feeling the Model 3’s presence
Quote
...the rest of the US auto market, including some of the auto industry’s most respected brands, are starting to feel the presence of the Model 3.

One of these carmakers is BMW AG. In a statement to Bloomberg, Bernhard Kuhnt, Chief Executive Officer of BMW North America, acknowledged Tesla’s increasing presence in the auto market. BMW was among the carmakers that saw a small gain in September, though its 1.3% rise was primarily due to the strength of the BMW X3, a crossover SUV that would eventually be challenged by Tesla’s upcoming Model Y. With the Tesla Model 3, BMW’s passenger cars such as the 3-Series and the 5-Series are seeing intense competition. 

“Tesla is now ramping up their volumes, and it’s putting pressure on that market segment. In that environment, I’m very, very pleased to say we were up,” Kuhnt said.

The Model 3’s presence could also be seen in the performance of Mercedes-Benz on September. The legacy carmaker’s deliveries dropped 9.8% overall, and the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, which is among the United States’ best-selling luxury sedans, saw a steep 24% plunge. Lexus, Toyota Motor Corp.’s luxury brand, saw a 6.1% decline in September as well.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-push-us-auto-market-bmw-executive/


Let’s Look At Tesla Sales Against Rivals: BMW & Mercedes
Quote
Those automotive dinosaurs don’t have it easy these days as the push to drive electric is taking over.
Let’s check out how Tesla sales results in the U.S. compared to two German brands – BMW and Mercedes-Benz – that are typically seen as Tesla’s closest competitors as brands (despite the fact that neither offers direct competitive BEV models to Tesla Model S, X or 3).
Third quarter results:
Passenger cars:
   •   Tesla (Model S + Model 3) – 61,875
   •   BMW – 45,452
   •   Mercedes-Benz – 29,442
SUVs:
   •   Mercedes-Benz (excludes commercial vans) – 37,100
   •   BMW – 26,227
   •   Tesla (Model X) – 8,050*
All passenger cars and SUVs:
   •   BMW – 71,679
   •   Tesla (Model S, X & 3) – 69,925
   •   Mercedes-Benz (excludes commercial vans) – 66,542
https://insideevs.com/tesla-sales-against-rivals-bmw-mercedes/

*Tesla is limited to the high end of the SUV market, for now. But the Model Y for the middle segment is coming….
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2018, 04:10:17 PM
get real ppl. tesla promised 5,000 model 3s a week by the end of 2017. they still are not there. there are lots all over the country storing about 10,000 model 3s (with more every day), many of which have "inventory" written on them. tesla's claim that they had 420,000 reservations remaining was pure nonsense....who could have seem that coming. when someone lies about things consistently and you still take them at their word, that is willful ignorance. please leave me alone, and i'll leave you alone.

They must be secretly making twice as many cars as they announced, then, to have delivered more cars than major brands yet still have all those units just sitting in parking lots!  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 04, 2018, 04:15:47 PM
Think the 5k/wk rate refers only to model 3. 53,329 is nicely in the 50-55K guidance. If they were only doing around 3k/wk in first 4 or 5 weeks of the quarter then it seems like they have averaged 4.5k/wk in the last couple of months. Am I concerned about 4.5k vs 5k in last couple of months? Not really, what matters more is whether they can consistently get above 6k without a lot more capital expenditure in the near future.

What matters is the margin. Specifically the net margin at a specific price point. Demand for a 60-65k car is going to be limited and even at this price, they need to be doing north of 20% gross to have a chance of breaking even. Cutting that 60-65k car to 35k to tap into the main market and remain in the green is going to be a colossal challenge.

There are other issues as well (including EPA rule shenanigans wrt ZEV credits in the future), but that's one of the biggest.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2018, 04:18:56 PM
Quote
I got rushed by 10 kids wanting to see the electric car. Inspiring a new generation has never been easier. Thanks Elon and Tesla!
https://twitter.com/trickybam/status/1046822860553998336
Photos of a Model 3 kid mob at the link. :)

<< I had a complete stranger knock on my door to ask about our new Model 3 sitting in the driveway ... never had THAT happen before ... offered them a ride but they were too shy. They should have accepted. I was serious ;)

Quote
Today my grandma got the car of her dreams that she worked so so hard for. Thank you so much @elonmusk and @Tesla for making this possible! #Model3
https://twitter.com/jam_lee_/status/1046553141628428288

——
“BABY TENT” ;D - actually discovered a couple weeks ago
Quote
Dana Hull (@danahull) 10/1/18, 2:18 PM
Tesla plans to build another tent, per permits: Tesla outbound logistics yard, south lot vehicle wrap tent: Install 50' wide x 80' long tent for wrapping vehicles to protect in transit.
https://twitter.com/danahull/status/1046826792281989121

——
Still waiting for that huge 20% increase in production you promised this year, GM! ;)

Sales of Chevy's electric car, the Bolt, tank 41 percent during the third quarter
(GM says its because “stocks in the U.S. are low” and cars were diverted to Canada and South Korea.)
Every one of GM's brands saw sales decline year over year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/sales-of-chevys-electric-car-the-bolt-tank-41-percent.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2018, 05:46:35 PM
Think the 5k/wk rate refers only to model 3. 53,329 is nicely in the 50-55K guidance. If they were only doing around 3k/wk in first 4 or 5 weeks of the quarter then it seems like they have averaged 4.5k/wk in the last couple of months. Am I concerned about 4.5k vs 5k in last couple of months? Not really, what matters more is whether they can consistently get above 6k without a lot more capital expenditure in the near future.

What matters is the margin. Specifically the net margin at a specific price point. Demand for a 60-65k car is going to be limited and even at this price, they need to be doing north of 20% gross to have a chance of breaking even. Cutting that 60-65k car to 35k to tap into the main market and remain in the green is going to be a colossal challenge.

There are other issues as well (including EPA rule shenanigans wrt ZEV credits in the future), but that's one of the biggest.

Munro Teardown, in addition to a group commissioned by German automakers, both estimated an all-inclusive cost (with parts, labor, etc) of $28,000 for the rear-wheel drive, long-range battery version of the Model 3.  That’s a 30% margin. (And a number Musk agreed with.)  It might not be realized until production reaches 10,000/wk — but that will happen 1H2019.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-30-profit-margin/

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2018, 07:00:38 PM
OMG, Tesla is #2 at something!  ;D

The Cadillac SuperCruise works really well — but only on those highways they have already LIDAR-mapped.  Those are the only roads where the system will work.  If you travel elsewhere:  no SuperCruise.

On the other hand, Tesla Autopilot can be engaged if it can gather enough information to work.  (An indicator shows whether Autopilot is available to be activated.)  The system chimes, shows a warning, and disengages whenever it calculates it cannot work reliably.  Of course it works best on highways — they’re easy! — but it works well on other roads, too. (Many, many YouTube videos attest to this.)

As for driver inattention, Cadillac went with the camera-on-the driver approach.  Tesla asks for a periodic touch on the steering wheel; how often depends on several factors, including speed, and type of road being driven.  Your preference between the two systems may vary.

These are NOT self-driving systems, they are driver-assist systems.  Full Self Driving cars won’t need Driver Inattention monitors.  To me, spending resources on driver-attention camera tech suggests a company that doesn’t think FSD is coming soon.  We’ll see.*

GM tops Tesla in ranking of automated driving systems 
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/gm-tops-tesla-in-ranking-of-automated-driving-systems.html

EDIT:
*What it says, more precisely, is that the Cadillac will never have FSD.  Whereas the Tesla has all the hardware to enable FSD with a future over the air software update. (And, as Musk has promised, a free swap of the liquid-cooled supercomputer that’s standard with every new Tesla, if an upgrade is required for FSD.) :)

Another edit:  commentary on Autopilot, from July.
https://medium.com/@ValueAnalyst/tesla-autopilot-100-fa5b459b7f49
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2018, 10:11:41 PM
Tesla has begun publishing quarterly safety data, as promised.

Q3 2018 Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla
Quote
At Tesla, the safety of our customers is our top priority, which is why it’s critical that we design and build the safest cars in the world. Not only do we conduct extensive in-house testing and simulation to ensure our vehicles achieve top safety performance before they ever reach the road, we are also uniquely positioned to leverage the hundreds of thousands of miles of real-world data our fleet collects every month to continuously improve our vehicles and develop a more complete picture of safety over time.

Because every Tesla is connected, in most instances we are able to learn immediately when a Tesla vehicle has been involved in a crash. Additionally, our non-traditional sales model allows us to have a direct relationship with our customers for the lifecycle of ownership, providing an avenue for us to supplement our records and gain even more insight as needed. In contrast, automakers whose cars aren’t connected and who utilize networks of third-party franchised dealers may never know when a vehicle is involved in an accident. Through traditional channels, it can take months or even years for lawsuits or claims to be filed that provide automakers with insight into an accident that allows them to draw meaningful conclusions and improve safety.
...
Here’s a look at the data we’re able to report for Q3:

Over the past quarter, we’ve registered one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.

For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like events).

Moving forward, we will publicly release these accident figures on a quarterly basis.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 04, 2018, 10:47:47 PM
The FUD over automated driving in general never made much sense, but you could make that same argument with nuclear power.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 04, 2018, 11:04:09 PM
liquid-cooled supercomputer that’s standard with every new Tesla

Sorry as a fully paid up IT geek, I really hate those marketing statements.

What it means is that they will replace the Drive PX with a Drive PX2.  A drive PX2 has two Nvidia Tegra 2 SOC's on board.  Each SOC has 6 ARM (mobile), cpu cores and two high performance discrete GPU cores (which are probably doing the FP work required for the autonomous driving).

The liquid cooling is required for the GPU cores.. This is hardly rocket science, my 8 year old AMD CPU is also liquid cooled as it is a 240W chip and standard air coolers can't cope.

It sticks in my craw when people start throwing around "supercomputer" tags on a high performing mobile phone with very fast graphics....  Yep it is a "very" smart board.  No it is not a supercomputer no matter that it can do 8 Tflops with the GPU's.  4 high performing AMD graphics cards can perform 9 billion hash checks a second when cracking Windows passwords.  Should we call that a "supercomputer"?

Sorry to digress but that just bugs me.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 04, 2018, 11:04:52 PM
Somebody please take away this man's twitter account.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 04, 2018, 11:11:36 PM
liquid-cooled supercomputer that’s standard with every new Tesla

Sorry as a fully paid up IT geek, I really hate those marketing statements.

What it means is that they will replace the Drive PX with a Drive PX2.  A drive PX2 has two Nvidia Tegra 2 SOC's on board.  Each SOC has 6 ARM (mobile), cpu cores and two high performance discrete GPU cores (which are probably doing the FP work required for the autonomous driving).

The liquid cooling is required for the GPU cores.. This is hardly rocket science, my 8 year old AMD CPU is also liquid cooled as it is a 240W chip and standard air coolers can't cope.

It sticks in my craw when people start throwing around "supercomputer" tags on a high performing mobile phone with very fast graphics....  Yep it is a "very" smart board.  No it is not a supercomputer no matter that it can do 8 Tflops with the GPU's.  4 high performing AMD graphics cards can perform 9 billion hash checks a second when cracking Windows passwords.  Should we call that a "supercomputer"?

Sorry to digress but that just bugs me.

Hell, I should start calling my gaming rigs "liquid cooled supercomputers" too. It sounds way cooler.

The issue is that the average customer doesn't know any better. The average Tesla buyer sure isn't going to scrutinize that kind of claim.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 04, 2018, 11:14:42 PM
NYT claims Musk told board to "Fight the SEC or I quit", and also demanded that they "publicly extol his integrity"

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/business/tesla-elon-musk-sec.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/business/tesla-elon-musk-sec.html)

The board's compliance with Elon's demands cost a minimum of $10mm to the cash strapped company, and aren't indicative of a board whose primary concern is the shareholders.

Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 04, 2018, 11:20:46 PM
Musk just effectively tore up the SEC settlement. He is displaying addict-like behavior. There is something seriously wrong. He probably needs to go to rehab.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 04, 2018, 11:25:52 PM
TSLA down in the mid $270's again.
What happened?
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 04, 2018, 11:33:37 PM
TSLA down in the mid $270's again.
What happened?
Terry

Institutional investors are exiting their positions. And Musk is mocking the SEC, which destroys the already under threat settlement. The end is near, and I would imagine the BoD is studying the following...

https://www.abi.org/abi-journal/preparing-for-bankruptcy-director-liability-in-the-zone-of-insolvency
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 04, 2018, 11:37:48 PM
The crash stats need further analysis which I hope Tesla is doing, at least privately. AP is engaged mostly in highways, where crash rates per mile are probably lower. For apples to apples, they should take only those miles where AP could engage but the driver chose not to engage it, and compare them to miles driven with AP engaged.
In any case, the general rate of Tesla accidents is quite low. But even for that a better comparison would be not to the average national rate but to the crash rate for luxury sedans, preferably with a similar geographic distribution as well. These factors surely affect the statistics.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 04, 2018, 11:49:56 PM
New idea: he wants the BoD or the SEC to remove him. that way it is "not his fault" when tesla goes belly up.

Any bulls have an explanation of why he is mocking the SEC in violation of the tentative settlement?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 05, 2018, 12:13:12 AM
Because funding was secured and Tesla was going private. The short distortion ruined that. Then institutional investors, victims of the fear infused by FUD demanded that he settled with the SEC.

He shouldn't settle. He should go all the way. Anyone who doesn't like the damage to short term stock price can get out. Maybe I can snatch up a few more shares at a heavily discounted price.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 05, 2018, 12:44:34 AM
how can you say that funding was in fact secured?!?!?!?!? based on Musk claiming that it was, with absolutely ZERO corroborating evidence? do you actually think that will hold up in court?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 05, 2018, 12:48:18 AM
Think the 5k/wk rate refers only to model 3. 53,329 is nicely in the 50-55K guidance. If they were only doing around 3k/wk in first 4 or 5 weeks of the quarter then it seems like they have averaged 4.5k/wk in the last couple of months. Am I concerned about 4.5k vs 5k in last couple of months? Not really, what matters more is whether they can consistently get above 6k without a lot more capital expenditure in the near future.

What matters is the margin. Specifically the net margin at a specific price point. Demand for a 60-65k car is going to be limited and even at this price, they need to be doing north of 20% gross to have a chance of breaking even. Cutting that 60-65k car to 35k to tap into the main market and remain in the green is going to be a colossal challenge.

There are other issues as well (including EPA rule shenanigans wrt ZEV credits in the future), but that's one of the biggest.

Munro Teardown, in addition to a group commissioned by German automakers, both estimated an all-inclusive cost (with parts, labor, etc) of $28,000 for the rear-wheel drive, long-range battery version of the Model 3.  That’s a 30% margin. (And a number Musk agreed with.)  It might not be realized until production reaches 10,000/wk — but that will happen 1H2019.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-30-profit-margin/

That's 28k for material and production. R&D, service centers and other costs need to be factored in as well.

Did you watch the Munro/Autoline video? I watched the entire thing. He really harps on how impressed they were with the 'skateboard', battery and tech (basically the bottom of the car), but the mechanical stuff is pretty bad with a lot of questionable design and obvious assembly/training issues. His opinion was basically that if they hadn't thrown out a hundred years of automotive knowledge for the "dinosaur stuff" they'd be killing it right now and it would cost considerably less to make (For instance, he stated the frame is 25% heavier than any other car in its class.)

Instead, they confusingly chose to try and re-invent the wheel for that portion of the car. That's cost them a lot of time, frustration and (eventually) warranty costs.

That's not the only thing that Tesla has shot itself in the foot on. Hopefully they can still make it despite the mistakes, but the window isn't large. Those enormous convertible bonds will hurt if they have to be cashed out instead of converted. I suspect that's part of the motivation for Elon to try and pump the stock price. If it stays high, the 1.5B in convertibles over the next several months (specifically the 920M in March) won't hurt and they'll have a chance. If they do have to cash out, there's a real chance of bankruptcy without a big capital raise.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 05, 2018, 12:53:36 AM
It doesn’t matter what I think. If Musk doesn’t settle, the courts will decide, as they should. I wish he doesn’t settle and take the consequences of his actions to the end.

Personally, I believe funding was secured and from everything I’ve seen he seriously wanted to take Tesla private, as he should have and still should.

The only reason to settle this is to please investors that can’t take the heat. I say let them sell. Maybe I can grab some TSLA at a discount. Long term it really just doesn’t matter.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 05, 2018, 01:07:44 AM
Personally, I believe funding was secured...

I get that. I am wondering why. Is it 100% based on Musk saying so?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 05, 2018, 03:11:44 AM
Because funding was secured and Tesla was going private. The short distortion ruined that. Then institutional investors, victims of the fear infused by FUD demanded that he settled with the SEC.

He shouldn't settle. He should go all the way. Anyone who doesn't like the damage to short term stock price can get out. Maybe I can snatch up a few more shares at a heavily discounted price.
This post reads like someone mocking a tesla fan boy. It so absurd it can't be real. But here we are. You are 100% earnest, and that blows my mind.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 05, 2018, 03:12:34 AM
Evidence for funding before the tweet:

The meeting with the Saudi fund
The hiring of a CAO with expertise on going private transactions and private companies
The talks with the board about going private.
The talks with an expert on going private transactions (per the lawsuit)

Evidence for funding after the tweet:

Banks and lawyers were hired. They got a good look at the funding sources available, probably had proposals themselves.

Elon publicly and officially stated that funding was confirmed secured. Nobody squirmed.


The SEC has no case. The SEC has abandoned their duties to shareholders and investors by letting very high profile shortsellers distort the market to the point that the SEC itself has lost sight of the truth(if they ever had it).

Tesla is a company trying to build cars. The products are beloved by owners. The company (Tesla employees from top to bottom) is making a herculean effort to build the best car possible, as fast as possible, as cheaply as possible. And they are actually doing it.

Remember the empty parking lots when the narrative was no production?
Remember the full parking lots when there was no demand?
Remember when Tesla lost money on every car they sold?

All extremely powerful propaganda that propagates like a virus. Words matter so much more than we give them credit for.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 05, 2018, 04:22:51 AM
Q3 2018 Vehicle Safety Report

https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report

Quote
Here’s a look at the data we’re able to report for Q3:

Over the past quarter, we’ve registered one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.

For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like events).
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 05, 2018, 05:24:03 AM
Evidence for funding before the tweet:

The meeting with the Saudi fund
The hiring of a CAO with expertise on going private transactions and private companies
The talks with the board about going private.
The talks with an expert on going private transactions (per the lawsuit)

Evidence for funding after the tweet:

Banks and lawyers were hired. They got a good look at the funding sources available, probably had proposals themselves.

Elon publicly and officially stated that funding was confirmed secured. Nobody squirmed.


The SEC has no case. The SEC has abandoned their duties to shareholders and investors by letting very high profile shortsellers distort the market to the point that the SEC itself has lost sight of the truth(if they ever had it).

Tesla is a company trying to build cars. The products are beloved by owners. The company (Tesla employees from top to bottom) is making a herculean effort to build the best car possible, as fast as possible, as cheaply as possible. And they are actually doing it.

Remember the empty parking lots when the narrative was no production?
Remember the full parking lots when there was no demand?
Remember when Tesla lost money on every car they sold?

All extremely powerful propaganda that propagates like a virus. Words matter so much more than we give them credit for.

I'm treating Archimid as a parody account from now on. This nonsense is too detached from reality to merit response.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 05, 2018, 05:55:03 AM
A better question would be (for this entire thread in general):

What would you have to see to change your position?

If you haven't thought about that or can't come up with something rather quickly, your position might be based on faith.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 05, 2018, 06:08:46 AM
If Tesla begins creating equity, rather than destroying it, I will change my position. 2 quarters in a row would be sufficient.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Csnavywx on October 05, 2018, 07:27:00 AM
If Tesla begins creating equity, rather than destroying it, I will change my position. 2 quarters in a row would be sufficient.

Sounds reasonable.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 05, 2018, 09:39:15 AM
New idea: he wants the BoD or the SEC to remove him. that way it is "not his fault" when tesla goes belly up.

Any bulls have an explanation of why he is mocking the SEC in violation of the tentative settlement?

I'm not a bull, but, basically, Musk has always operated on the cutting edge of 21st century companies.  He has never really had to deal with the sheer inertial of government legislation.  Musk lives in the information age and the SEC lives in the age of Sailing ships.

Essentially Musk thought he could communicate to his shareholders in the same way that he does to talk to them about future plans.  He was wrong, when you start talking about the stock of the company and how that may be bought or moved from public and private, you have to do it within the constraints of SEC guidelines.

Essentially he broke the law without realising what he was really doing.  This shows how his CEO tenure comes from personal investment into companies rather than extensive corporate training.  Musk gets stuff done and lives in a world of problem solving.  CEO's have to also work within the constraints of legal frameworks which they spend decades learning.  It is no real surprise that most CEO's come from either Finance or Legal.  Musk did not.

Musk broke the law. There is no question about this.  What he did not realise is that the SEC action was aligned with the expectations of his experience.  They chose to give him a short "educational" shock instead of the kind of action they would have taken with a CEO who should have known better.  It is clear this is what they had in mind.

When Musk threw a wobbly and refused the deal, they made the shock a bit longer and a bit harsher to "educate" him a bit more about just what they really could do.

The last thing either Tesla or Musk need to do, right now, is fight the actions of the SEC.  They have been very understanding.  Now he needs to learn and move on.

The very best thing Musk could do is to stabilise the company, take it profitable, thentake it private, correctly, at 420 a share.  That is the very best justification he could make of himself.  Hopefully he see's that.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 05, 2018, 07:10:00 PM
I think he needs something like $360 a share, or a $Billion by December 1.
There's also a margin call at $220 that isn't to be crossed.


At $262.30, we're a lot closer to $220 than $360.


December just isn't that far away.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2018, 07:40:25 PM
Just thought I would show a 5 year chart of Tesla.  Remember ..... a rising tide RAISES MOST BOATS ..... and a dropping tide LOWERS MOST BOATS.

The "blue lines" show "possible support areas".

And here is a "not so nice" piece by Mssr. Einhorn, a Tesla bear.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/david-einhorn-says-tesla-resembles-162022824.html

Just remember that these guys "talk their own book."  If Einhorn is short, he obviously isn't going to be shy about saying so.  And while Einhorn is a sharp guy ..... he isn't always right.  But just like politics ..... its always good TO LOOK FOR THE FACTS WHEREVER THEY LEAD YOU.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 05, 2018, 09:24:02 PM
The law, and our current system of government, will be incapable of dealing with the coming changes. The law needs agility, data based decision making, iteration and a genuine admission of its limitations. Government needs to move faster if they want to adapt to a climate changing faster everyday.

Elon may help in that direction.

I think he is more valuable as a leader and engineer than as political agent of change, but if this is the direction he needs to go then so be it.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 05, 2018, 11:10:29 PM
Elon is behaving in a childish and reckless way with his recent anti-SEC tweets. It is worrisome IMHO as it shows very poor judgement at a critical period for the company.

Regarding the personal margin call at $220 - here's a short-side article (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4168224-musks-personal-finances-threaten-teslas-stock-price) saying it's $218 under certain assumptions. However, I think that's not really true.
Elon has 13.8M TSLA shares pledged as collateral. Tesla board policy permits up to 25% borrowing against the value of collateralized stocks. Assuming the outstanding loan is $750M, we get $220-230/share to hit the 25% value limit of the pledged stocks. However, Elon can pledge more shares as he owns 33.6M (excluding stock options), so the margin call is not important IMHO. He has been adding about 2M stocks to the pledge each year anyway.
In other words, the outstanding loans amount to <$25/owned share. The margin call is roughly around $100/share (due to the 25% policy). So it's not as leveraged as one might think.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 05, 2018, 11:44:31 PM
Pissing off the SEC is a really, really dumb thing to do, especially when a judge has to decide whether the deal between TESLA, Musk and the SEC is to stand.

Forget the other tweets except "funding secured". When his ego hurts the biznis is when it counts.

In the good ol' USofA I understand you have a mantra "3 strikes and you are out". For me, Musk is 2 down facing a strong pitcher. TESLA  is looking in much better shape than Musk.

But will the Board of Directors show they have a spine?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 06, 2018, 12:15:27 AM
Thanks oren, that makes much more sense than the flat floor that I'd assumed. He's plenty of wriggle room then.


g-crat, I think the board is too subservient to act. I'm still torn between Man Child Musk, who just can't help himself, & The Musk Monster who's bent on destroying his shareholders so that he can buy the company on the cheap.


I've no idea which one's actions I've been following.


Does anyone remember the details of his compensation package? Do stock prices play any roll there? AFAIK he's been borrowing against his shares both to support his lifestyle & to purchase more shares.
My mother would never have approved. :)
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 06, 2018, 12:28:21 AM
Let's not forget that this is all the result of the underlying causes...

Musk has been leading several businesses for the last 18 years...NOT ONE HAS TURNED A SINGLE ANNUAL PROFIT!

Eventually if you lose money every year, no amount of hype can bring in more money.

Musk only knows how to hype, and now that it is not working, he is having a breakdown. It's kinda fun to watch, but it's also kinda painful on a human level.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 06, 2018, 12:42:30 PM
Let's not forget that this is all the result of the underlying causes...

Musk has been leading several businesses for the last 18 years...NOT ONE HAS TURNED A SINGLE ANNUAL PROFIT!

Eventually if you lose money every year, no amount of hype can bring in more money.

Musk only knows how to hype, and now that it is not working, he is having a breakdown. It's kinda fun to watch, but it's also kinda painful on a human level.

Interesting position.

You might want to read this article about the current and future profitability (https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/05/30/whats-driving-spacexs-sky-high-valuation/#16256aeebde9) for SpaceX.

It has a clear statement.

Quote
Over recent years, though, SpaceX has done well to dominate the space launch services sector – offering to launch commercial (and occasionally military) satellites at a much lower price than incumbents while largely remaining profitable.

Granted this is because SpaceX is working in an industry that charges Government level prices, i.e. astronomical.  However they have more than halved their average launch costs as the launches have increased and streamlined.

Essentially your statement is fundamentally incorrect.  SpaceX is and has been consistently, making profits.  SpaceX was founded in 2002.  SpaceX is only, since 2016, into making high volume and consistent profit raising product.


You also might want to think about the fact that SpaceX is very close to human launches and would take a slice of the ISS human launch schedule which is costing NASA (and others), such a large amount of money paid to Russia.


Notably SpaceX is driving other space launch providers to become cheaper and more flexible instead of the incredibly wasteful way they have been operating.

One of the most interesting statements in the article is:

Quote
SpaceX stands out among the list of multi-billion dollar private companies as one of the few startups that has grown by competing with incumbents head-on, rather than disrupting industries through the use of technology.

Whilst Musk attempted to use technology to disrupt the car manufacturing business, he is , right now, meeting them head on.

Tesla was founded in 2003, is competing in a high volume market with lower margins.  Tesla is likely to become sustainably profitable in Q4 2018.  At that point, just like SpaceX, Google, Amazon and many other 21st century (OK some started in the latter part of the 20th but they follow the pattern), start-ups, Tesla will use those profits to drive up volume, cut margins and expand the company horizontally into other markets.

Traditional investors who think they are going to get a high dividend return out of Tesla can think again.  They will only make their margin by selling the stock on the top of a volatile market or by holding on to it and waiting for it to grow even more in value based on a physical growth of the company.

In reality there should be a reassessment of the shares market for 21st century companies and they should not over value them just because they do things differently.  Hardly the fault of the company officers though.

I know that your viewpoint is diametrically opposed to this one.  However your viewpoint, outside of Tesla, is not, quite, backed up by the facts.  In order to follow your viewpoint you need to look at the world with a  very small filter, coloured by the dislike of the man at the helm of Tesla.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 06, 2018, 12:54:30 PM
Just thought I would show a 5 year chart of Tesla.  Remember ..... a rising tide RAISES MOST BOATS ..... and a dropping tide LOWERS MOST BOATS.

The "blue lines" show "possible support areas".

And here is a "not so nice" piece by Mssr. Einhorn, a Tesla bear.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/david-einhorn-says-tesla-resembles-162022824.html

Just remember that these guys "talk their own book."  If Einhorn is short, he obviously isn't going to be shy about saying so.  And while Einhorn is a sharp guy ..... he isn't always right.  But just like politics ..... its always good TO LOOK FOR THE FACTS WHEREVER THEY LEAD YOU.

I must admit I have a problem with that.  He says:

Quote
(Bloomberg) -- David Einhorn, a prominent critic of Tesla Inc., bashed the electric-car maker, saying its woes resemble those of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. before the bank failed.

Really?  Lehmans were arrogant toerags who were in the middle of a world wide scam designed to produce phenomenal "advertised" profits to fund a lifestyle for an elite of chancers who were selling "product" which could not and would not ever perform.

I'm working with a guy who was right in the middle of that financial business when the crisis struck.  He told me that Lehmans was so arrogant about the whole thing that the business, as a whole, decided they were the best to fail in order for everyone else to escape unscathed.

Now let's look at Tesla.  So Musk is an arrogant Toerag.  Granted.  But is he selling product which will never perform?  No, he's actually selling product which is judged to be pretty good. 

Is he taking money from people with no intention of ever having to provide they promised payment?  No he's actually working his ass off trying to keep the company on track so that it can meet the obligations it has taken.

Is Tesla doing a DeLorean and producing a few thousand cars then going bust?  Erm, no.  Actually Tesla keeps on building cars, factories, batteries, solar products, a charging network for vehicles and, at the same time, is becoming profitable.

Honestly, financial anal ysts.  I do love them, but I couldn't eat a whole one....
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 06, 2018, 01:49:19 PM
Neil, well said to your two recent posts. A good dose of realism.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2018, 03:12:55 PM
liquid-cooled supercomputer that’s standard with every new Tesla

Sorry as a fully paid up IT geek, I really hate those marketing statements.

What it means is that they will replace the Drive PX with a Drive PX2.  ...

Then no doubt it will make you feel much better to learn that, no, Tesla designed its own chips, its own architecture, to allow the neural net to directly analyse the video feed for autonomous vehicles without a choke point of a graphics card, at 10 times the speed of graphics chips.

Quote
Well, thanks. Yes, I mean, essentially, the key is to be able to run the neural net at a fundamental -- at a bare metal level so that you're -- in the circuits, especially when you're the calculations in the circuits itself and not in some sort of emulation mode, which is how a GPU or CPU would operate. So you want to do basically a mass amount of localized major (inaudible) with the memory right there. So it's a huge number of very simple complications with the memory needed to straight adjust those complications right next to the circuits that are doing the matrix calculations. And the net effect is an order of magnitude improvement in the frames per second. Our current hardware, which I'm a big fan of NVIDIA, they're great stuff, but using a GPU, primarily, it's an emulation mode. So -- and you also get choked on the bus. So the transfer between the GPU and the CPU ends up being a strain to the system. So the net effect is we're able to, with the Tesla computer, we've been in like semi-stealth mode basically for the last 2 to 3 years on this, but I think it's probably time to let the cat out of the bag because that -- the cat's coming out of the bag anyway. So it's an incredible job by Pete, as seen. It's great. One of the most advanced computer for -- designed specifically for autonomous operation. And as a rough sort of figure, whereas the current NVIDIA-based hardware can do 200 frames a second, this is able to do over 2,000 frames a second, and with full redundancy and fail over. So it's an amazing design and we're looking to increase the size of our chip team and our investment in that as quickly as possible.

I think we're at some of the best days the world, but I think we want to hold on it even more. And it's going to cost the same as our current hardware, and we anticipate that this -- they would actually just replace those replacements, which is why we made it easy to switch out the computer. And that's all that needs to be done. If we take out one computer and plug in the next, that's it. All the connectors are compatible, and an order of magnitude more processing. And you can run all cameras at full frame rate, full resolution with a complex neural net. So it's super kickass. Thank you for doing that.
Edited Transcript of TSLA earnings conference call or presentation 1-Aug-18 9:30pm GMT
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2018, 03:24:41 PM
The day after the S.E.C. tweet, “Musk hired the high-powered Washington lawyer Dane Butswinkas to help clean up his mess with the Securities and Exchange Commission.”
- Why, if he’s going to settle?
- Exactly.

Musk Hires Williams & Connolly Chairman Dane Butswinkas in SEC Case
Quote
October 5, 2018, 5:17 PM EDT

Musk hired the high-powered Washington lawyer Dane Butswinkas to help clean up his mess with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

A day after Musk insulted the SEC in a tweet calling the agency the “Shortseller Enrichment Commission,” Butswinkas formally entered the case as Musk’s lawyer in Manhattan federal court. The tweet came after Musk agreed to settle the SEC suit, which grew out of tweets on Aug. 7 in which he talked about taking the company private. A judge is weighing whether to accept the accord.

Butswinkas is chairman of Williams & Connolly, a top litigation firm. Also defending Musk is Butswinkas’s partner, Steven Farina, chairman of the firm’s Accounting Malpractice and Securities Litigation and Enforcement practice groups.

Butswinkas represented former Jefferies & Co. trader Jesse Litvak, who was convicted twice of defrauding customers by lying about the prices of mortgage-backed securities in trades. Butswinkas handled the second trial. Both convictions were overturned on appeal.

He also represented Walt Disney Co.’s ABC television network in a defamation suit by Beef Products Inc. over news reports about a processed product ABC called "pink slime." That suit settled on confidential terms.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-05/musk-hires-williams-connolly-chairman-butswinkas-in-sec-case

“The guy wanted to build rockets. So he learned rocket science... he is the lead designer at Tesla and SpaceX. Have you ever seen him run through a factory tour? He knows every part, every system, every machine, every piece of software in all of his factories.”
https://twitter.com/tesla_investor/status/1048195067427659776
—-
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/5/18, 8:31 AM
$TSLA I don't think anything @elonmusk does is by mistake or out of carelessness. He is potentially the most intelligent human to have ever lived, foreseeing multiple tide changes *two decades* ahead of any industry insider. His 4D chess moves are carefully designed and executed.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1048188898348867584
—-
Gali (@Gfilche) 10/4/18, 5:55 PM
First principle of Elon. He will be Elon. I love it. Go $TSLA  @elonmusk
https://twitter.com/gfilche/status/1047968429913903106
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2018, 03:35:25 PM
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman:  Huge announcement planned for Oct 17.
“amazing deal”, “far away from oil”.
Tech?   “Maybe. But this is in Saudi Arabia with big numbers.” 
Anything to do with cars?  “We will see.”

Saudi Crown Prince Discusses [Tesla,] Trump, Aramco, Arrests: Transcript
   Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to Bloomberg reporters in Riyadh
      Interview took place Wednesday night at royal palace
Quote
Bloomberg: Are you seeing some of this coming in the non-oil sector too? Because oil has been -- historically you’ve seen a lot of oil investments but the crucial thing is non-oil FDI.
MBS: We believe it’s both. We believe we will have an amazing deal in October, in two weeks from today. So it will be big numbers. It will be in FII [The Future Investment Initiative conference] and it’s far away from oil. This deal is just what’s happening in Saudi Arabia – so there is one deal in FII and there are other deals that will be announced there.
Bloomberg: Any details we can get – what industry even?
MBS: It’s far away from oil.
Bloomberg: Is it technology?
MBS: Maybe. But this is in Saudi Arabia with big numbers.
Bloomberg: Is it anything to do with cars?
MBS: We will see. You know, we are two weeks away from that date.
Bloomberg: On a separate note, we’re very interested to know whether you’ve driven a Tesla.
MBS: Actually, we, PIF invests in a lot of companies in the United States of America, especially in the stock market. And Tesla looked like a good opportunity for PIF and we bought a few shares there. We have almost 5% of the company. …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/saudi-crown-prince-discusses-trump-aramco-arrests-transcript
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2018, 03:38:10 PM
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 10/5/18, 7:29 AM
I cannot underscore enough the overwhelming force with which Tesla has seized the U.S. luxury car market.
...
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1048173230136221698
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2018, 03:42:56 PM
Quote
Model 3 sales update — September edition (1/3)
Part 1 — "No one wants EVs"
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1047625201125642242

Part 2 — "No one wants sedans" (2/3)
(Doubles everything in its class combined, and nearly quadruples the highest selling American sports car)

Part 3 — "Why isn't Tesla valued like every other car company?" (3/3)
"Tesla is putting pressure on that market segment" — BMW CEO 10/2/2018
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2018, 03:51:37 PM
OEMs Still Talking About EV Future And How Burdensome It Will Be
BIG AUTO CAN’T STOP BELLY-ACHING ABOUT THE ‘BURDEN’ OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES
https://insideevs.com/oems-ev-future-burdensome/

Do Legacy Automakers Have True Motivation To Bury Tesla?
CORPORATE INERTIA: HOLDING BACK LEGACY AUTOMAKERS FROM PLAYING ‘CATCH-UP’ WITH TESLA
Quote
  A frequent theme of the legions of Tesla skeptics is the idea that, when the traditional automakers finally get serious about EVs, Tesla will be toast. However, while the auto giants, with their access to amazing amounts of capital and their enormous economies of scale, certainly have the ability to bury tiny Tesla, the reason that this scenario isn’t going to take place is that they don’t have the motivation to compete with the California carmaker.
https://insideevs.com/legacy-automakers-motivation-bury-tesla/


Quote
Tesla Homestead (@TeslaHomestead) 10/4/18, 5:51 PM
I took my baby-boomer father-in-law to the Highland Park, IL Tesla center for my first test drive in P3D. The staff quickly convinced him to drive too! His first reaction is priceless. He got the hang of autopilot too!
https://twitter.com/teslahomestead/status/1047967572040339456
Video clip at the link: father-in-law, driving: “Say goodbye to the internal combustion engine.”

Quote
millennialgirlinamaterialworld (@1millennialgirl) 10/4/18, 2:20 PM

I just took a cop for a test drive. Went over 100. Didn’t know he was a cop.
https://twitter.com/1millennialgirl/status/1047914473594478592
He ended the ride by saying “pull in next to the black police car.” I turned bright red.
He started the ride admantly stating, “I’ll go for a ride, but I’m not buying one.” He ended the ride asking, “so how much does this cost?”
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 06, 2018, 06:09:08 PM
Whew!


Butswinkas really is someone's last name, I looked it up. :)


Elon apparently will be paying for this high priced legal eagle out of his own pocket. Will this make him more likely to take what advice he is given?
Will Elon's new lawyer be cooperating with Tesla's legal team, and does this indicate Elon's dissatisfaction with Tesla's lawyers, and/or whatever legal opinions they have given him?


I'm not sure that hiring expensive representation in the cold light of day explains away your actions a day earlier. Why would Musk have tweeted such an inflammatory message in the first place?


Tens of millions in fines may mean nothing to Musk, but his shareholders are on the hook for their share of that pie.


Terry
PS & OT
With the recent case of Trump's lawyers "flipping" on their client, is it still safe to lay it all on the table with your lawyer in the US?

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 06, 2018, 06:52:21 PM
Then no doubt it will make you feel much better to learn that, no, Tesla designed its own chips,

Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  Microsoft, with AMD, designed its own chips for the xBox.  They did what Tesla did, they made it a vertical application.

I don't know your experience and knowledge, do you understand what that quote actually means?

Tesla created an AI Centric processor which does one task and one task only (Autopilot), ten times faster than a generic CPU or GPU which is harnessed to do the job.

When Microsoft created the xBox they created a CPU/GPU system with wide open 10.8 gig bandwidth on the memory, shared by the CPU and GPU.  This has only one real application, games.  As a generic computer the xBox was a bust, but as a games machine it was excellent.

So Tesla is saying "we couldn't get the performance we wanted out of a generic processor so we built a system which does our job as well as a general processor which is 10 times faster".

Great.  Supercomputer?  No.  Bloody fast?  Undoubtedly if you want to process video frames and analyse them and take decisions on it.

Why did Tesla have to do this?  Look at the Google fully autonomous car, it does 25mph.  Tesla wants to do Autopilot at up to 80mph or more (depending on country, rules etc).  Have you ever considered just how much raw data it requires to analyse the video input from a vehicle travelling at 80mph?  Talk about a vertical application requirement.

So, no, I'm not impressed with the "supercomputer" moniker.  Super video interpreting AI?  Yup. Super "computer"? Not quite.

The interesting thing is that as the general CPU and GPU chip architectures got faster and faster, the need to build the same kind of custom silicon for xBox and PlayStation went away.

I expect that the requirement for Tesla to design their own chips will, in time, go away.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 06, 2018, 10:52:36 PM
Tesla stock will crash this week...

I'm not going to bother citing anything. It's all over but the crying.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 06, 2018, 11:44:10 PM
Elon is behaving in a childish and reckless way with his recent anti-SEC tweets. It is worrisome IMHO as it shows very poor judgement at a critical period for the company.

Regarding the personal margin call at $220 - here's a short-side article (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4168224-musks-personal-finances-threaten-teslas-stock-price) saying it's $218 under certain assumptions. However, I think that's not really true.
Elon has 13.8M TSLA shares pledged as collateral. Tesla board policy permits up to 25% borrowing against the value of collateralized stocks. Assuming the outstanding loan is $750M, we get $220-230/share to hit the 25% value limit of the pledged stocks. However, Elon can pledge more shares as he owns 33.6M (excluding stock options), so the margin call is not important IMHO. He has been adding about 2M stocks to the pledge each year anyway.
In other words, the outstanding loans amount to <$25/owned share. The margin call is roughly around $100/share (due to the 25% policy). So it's not as leveraged as one might think.

great post for those who are really interested how this works while there are others factors that also have been mentioned, hence won't repeat and you know anyways, but when it comes to the M.C. this is absolutely correct and well explained and i'm quite sure you're well within +/-10% wiht that educated guess ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 06, 2018, 11:48:28 PM

Then no doubt it will make you feel much better to learn that, no, Tesla designed its own chips, its own architecture, to allow the neural net to directly analyse the video feed for autonomous vehicles without a choke point of a graphics card, at 10 times the speed of graphics chips.

you mean like seeing the free space under a long vehicle as driving under a bridge ;)

sorry, i know it's a bit too simple and not entirely fair but nevertheless true

i just think that OWN is not an equivalent to BETTER, hope my english allowed to express what i mean.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 07, 2018, 12:24:41 AM

i just think that OWN is not an equivalent to BETTER, hope my english allowed to express what i mean.


You are easily understood.
I think this forum is a great place to practice English as we have so many ESL posters.
I've watch as many improved here over the years.


Have Fun
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2018, 01:40:05 AM
More on the computer inside new Teslas:

“This hardware that processes neural nets 10 times faster and more efficiently than anything else in the world has applications far beyond autonomous driving.”

Tesla Autopilot Improvements Are *Insane* — Let's Get Technical
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/02/tesla-autopilot-improvements-are-insane-lets-get-technical/

Tesla claims to have ‘world’s most advanced computer for autonomous driving’ with Autopilot 3.0 update coming next year
https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-chip-most-advanced-computer-autonomous-driving-autopilot-hardware-3-update/

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 07, 2018, 07:55:10 AM
Sigmetnow, thank you for posting this graph :

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2406.0;attach=109421;image)

I don't know much about stock values, but that graph tells a lot.
If you sell as many cars as Mercedes, Audi and BMW combined, and you are still on such a steep growth curve, it seems unlikely to me that investors would pull out any time soon.

Not to mention that EVs is only one part of their market. Solar and batteries are equally important and they are moving mountains there too.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2018, 01:10:07 PM
Sigmetnow, thank you for posting this graph :

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2406.0;attach=109421;image)

I don't know much about stock values, but that graph tells a lot.
If you sell as many cars as Mercedes, Audi and BMW combined, and you are still on such a steep growth curve, it seems unlikely to me that investors would pull out any time soon.

Not to mention that EVs is only one part of their market. Solar and batteries are equally important and they are moving mountains there too.

Yes, it’s my favorite graph so far.  (And I’ve seen a lot of them! ;) ;D )
It vividly illustrates Tesla’s dominance in the sector.  A few more months and Tesla’s share of the entire U.S. sedan market — any price! — will start to look much the same. 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 07, 2018, 02:09:44 PM
There may be a few more months of these US numbers, but once the queue is exhausted for the US the numbers will go down for US sales and we'll see the big numbers in worldwide sales.

Once the 35k Model 3 comes out, US sales will spike again.

Hopefully, around this time next year the paradigm shift becomes obvious to everyone. EVs are superior to ICEs in most use cases. All the cool kids will want one.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 07, 2018, 02:21:21 PM

Yes, it’s my favorite graph so far.  (And I’ve seen a lot of them! ;) ;D )
It vividly illustrates Tesla’s dominance in the sector.  A few more months and Tesla’s share of the entire U.S. sedan market — any price! — will start to look much the same.

i understand that you believe that this kind of result will spread over any vehicle segment but still i would like to mention that:

- without SUVs and Trucks = every other car sold in the U.S of A is an SUV and/or Truck

- this is for the luxury segment from which SUVs take a big part.

hence, what remains is almost nothing in percent of the entire vehicle market and is hence not significant at all and does not say anything about success or failure of a manufacturer.

except very few extremely high priced brands like RR, Bentley etc. none of the "dominating" (your term) manufacturers can only half way live from it's luxury segment. they all need a bread and butter segment to make profits.

so this graph, considering that trucks and SUVs are excluded is a top example of cherry picking and how to take information out of context and make it look great. there is really a lot of bias here IMO.

coming back to your assumption that tesla will be able to show similar development in all segments (sedan) which, SUVs and Trucks excluded for the U.S. would still mean much less than it looks at first glance, i doubt that of course and i can't believe that you believe that. how should this happen?

they're not even talking big about producing anything volkswagen golf like (compact segement) model X is by the way a kind of SUV if i'm not totally wrong and model 3, coming around 40-50'000 grand (depending on options) is not directly cheap and very close to the luxury segment, let's call it upper middle class. hence not much in sicht that would cover the market big (since SUVs and trucks are excluded) ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2018, 04:04:55 PM
”coming back to your assumption that tesla will be able to show similar development in all segments (sedan) which, SUVs and Trucks excluded for the U.S. would still mean much less than it looks at first glance, i doubt that of course and i can't believe that you believe that. how should this happen?”

1.  The top 5 cars traded in for a Model 3 are:
Toyota Prius
BMW 3-Series
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf

Only the BMW is a “luxury” car.  The Model 3 is being snapped up by customers in all price ranges.  In fact, many say they are paying more to get a Tesla than any other car they have owned.  The potential market for a Model 3 extends throughout the car market. 

2.  $35,000 base version is not even being offered yet.
3.  Leases, the preferred method of ownership for a large percentage of U.S. owners, aren’t being offered yet.
4.  Most of the current Model 3 owners had not even sat in a Model 3 before buying it — let alone taken a test drive!  People who sit in a Tesla, let alone drive one, want a Tesla.  (See the Twitter anecdotes above. ;) )
5.  Tesla has not begun advertising its cars yet.
6.  Tens of thousands of new Tesla owners are now ‘brand ambassadors,’ showing their new car to family, friends, co-workers... and complete strangers.  And those folks are going home and ordering Teslas.
7.  Each $5,000 drop in price doubles the potential market for a car:

“In the United States, each price drop of $5,000 roughly doubles the buyer pool; conversely, a $5,000 price increase halves the number of people who can buy the car.”
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089555_electric-car-market-share-in-2013-understanding-the-numbers-better


I totally agree that the market for SUVs is much larger.  That may be one reason Tesla started with a sedan first, while they worked out the bugs of major mass production.  The Model Y SUV will destroy the competition — so many people are waiting for it to be their next car.  A recent Twitter poll of Model Y versus any other SUV resulted in 90% voting for the Model Y.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 07, 2018, 09:51:31 PM
they're not even talking big about producing anything volkswagen golf like (compact segement) model X is by the way a kind of SUV if i'm not totally wrong and model 3, coming around 40-50'000 grand (depending on options) is not directly cheap and very close to the luxury segment, let's call it upper middle class. hence not much in sicht that would cover the market big (since SUVs and trucks are excluded) ;)

I must admit that I often smile when I hear the transatlantic vehicle language difference.

For me this is compact.

(https://i0.wp.com/carsalesbase.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Fiat_500-US-car-sales-statistics.png?w=600).

I struggle to actually get in one.  A golf, although a hatch, falls into the family car category in the UK.

My view of what Tesla is doing fits with the actual observed data.

They started in the low volume luxury market (Models S and X).  There is absolutely no way for a new entrant into the car market to go head to head with all the incumbent US/European/Japanese/Korean manufacturers with a mass market car.  The incumbents have spent billions getting to where they are and the investment to compete would take government levels of funding.  Therefore not going to happen.

So Tesla started producing profitable cars in the luxury sector.  Profit you say, they don't make a profit.  Rubbish, they have been making a profit, per car manufactured all along, they have just been spending that profit (and more), expanding the company to own the entire end to end market.

So they produced a highly popular expensive car on which they made money.  They then used that money to raise funds to build the capability to produce a more mass market car.  In the interim they delivered a supercharging grid which continues to grow, a battery factory which massively increases the value of Tesla and has applications outside of the purely EV line and an in house repair capability.

Granted they bought Solar City but, in the end, it was part of an integral view of the long term future of EV usage and the concept of moving to more renewable power.  Given where they had committed their business model and the long term expectations of how EV ownership and usage were going, I don't see they had a lot of other choices.  Yes they could have chosen to let it fail, but then they would have significantly reduced the allure of their EV's in 3-5 years time.  Exactly the time they would need to entice the very cost conscious lower value car market into Tesla.

So where next?

We know that the model 3 costs around half of what they are selling it for, in fact the manufacture costs less than the stated $35k base price of the low cost Model 3.  So a move to a base price of $35k is viable, although it will eat most of the profit without a redesign or a spec change.

We know that the Model 3 will really kick off at a $35k price point.  At which point Tesla should have 10k cars per week cracked and be able to cope with the expected volume.

Once Tesla has that going correctly and profitably, the plan is to use this strong base to attack and dominate new car sales for the SUV/Crossover and trucks (US term).

Oh and they produced a reasonably viable Semi for moderate haulage which will go into production around the time that the model Y takes off and becomes profitable.

Now tell me, I'd love to know, how exactly should they have done it to break into a sector which has broken so many companies, become a world class vehicle manufacturer and one of the best Electric battery manufacturers in the world?

I missed the point where they over engineered everything so that their customers would, overwhelming, have a good experience.  Something which can be reduced in lower cost vehicles.

I may have my issues with the technology at the current level of maturity, I may have serious issues with the hype, I think musk acts like a Dick most of the time and I'm sure that I would hate to work for him.  But I have absolutely no issue with the business model being followed by Tesla.

What is the very biggest blocker to that entire plan?

The shorts constantly trying to devalue the company to make a fast buck.

If I were Musk I'd like to Boil them in oil.  But that's life when you raise public funds..

I haven't even gone into the whole cost of operation.  There is a significant fuelling benefit in terms of cost for the Tesla but only at 12 cents per kw/h and $2.8 per gallon.  This diverges significantly if you can use home renewable or other renewable at discounted cost; or radically the other way if you start charging at supercharger cost of 20c and the ICE does 45mpg.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 07, 2018, 09:56:45 PM
”coming back to your assumption that tesla will be able to show similar development in all segments (sedan) which, SUVs and Trucks excluded for the U.S. would still mean much less than it looks at first glance, i doubt that of course and i can't believe that you believe that. how should this happen?”

1.  The top 5 cars traded in for a Model 3 are:
Toyota Prius
BMW 3-Series
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf

Only the BMW is a “luxury” car.  The Model 3 is being snapped up by customers in all price ranges.  In fact, many say they are paying more to get a Tesla than any other car they have owned.  The potential market for a Model 3 extends throughout the car market. 

2.  $35,000 base version is not even being offered yet.
3.  Leases, the preferred method of ownership for a large percentage of U.S. owners, aren’t being offered yet.
4.  Most of the current Model 3 owners had not even sat in a Model 3 before buying it — let alone taken a test drive!  People who sit in a Tesla, let alone drive one, want a Tesla.  (See the Twitter anecdotes above. ;) )
5.  Tesla has not begun advertising its cars yet.
6.  Tens of thousands of new Tesla owners are now ‘brand ambassadors,’ showing their new car to family, friends, co-workers... and complete strangers.  And those folks are going home and ordering Teslas.
7.  Each $5,000 drop in price doubles the potential market for a car:

“In the United States, each price drop of $5,000 roughly doubles the buyer pool; conversely, a $5,000 price increase halves the number of people who can buy the car.”
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089555_electric-car-market-share-in-2013-understanding-the-numbers-better


I totally agree that the market for SUVs is much larger.  That may be one reason Tesla started with a sedan first, while they worked out the bugs of major mass production.  The Model Y SUV will destroy the competition — so many people are waiting for it to be their next car.  A recent Twitter poll of Model Y versus any other SUV resulted in 90% voting for the Model Y.

thanks for the information, always good to know more than less ;)

that said it does not matter that IMO this does not change the bigger numbers, future will teach us what's gonna happen / has happened. the main goal of a discussion is to learn and gather input and this is happening, hence i consider this good and fruitful even without consent at the moment ;)

enjoy the sunday evening
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2018, 10:11:49 PM
”coming back to your assumption that tesla will be able to show similar development in all segments (sedan) which, SUVs and Trucks excluded for the U.S. would still mean much less than it looks at first glance, i doubt that of course and i can't believe that you believe that. how should this happen?”

1.  The top 5 cars traded in for a Model 3 are:
Toyota Prius
BMW 3-Series
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf
...

thanks for the information, always good to know more than less ;)

that said it does not matter that IMO this does not change the bigger numbers, future will teach us what's gonna happen / has happened. the main goal of a discussion is to learn and gather input and this is happening, hence i consider this good and fruitful even without consent at the moment ;)

enjoy the sunday evening

Thanks.  I think what Tesla is doing, and how customers are drawn to it, is fascinating, and we will look back at this time of transition and wonder why we ever thought ICE cars were a good idea.

I just posted this on the Cars thread:  Ford is having major financial difficulties related to its slow pace of change.  And VW announces another big delay in its EV program....
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg176004.html#msg176004
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2018, 10:23:37 PM
FLINT, MICHIGAN
(Lead contamination in the water supply for years now, due to massive bureaucratic mismanagement.  Less than adequate solutions given for affected residents.)

Mari Copeny (@LittleMissFlint) 10/4/18, 9:32 PM
For all you saying "wheres Elon", he's been here and helping. Thank you to my buddy @elonmusk for helping take care of #FlintKids
https://twitter.com/littlemissflint/status/1048023138691424259

Flint Schools (@FlintSchools) 10/4/18, 7:27 PM
Thank you @elonmusk and @MuskFoundation for investing in the health/future well-being FCS Students! Your generous donation will help us replace ALL water fountains w/NEW WATER STATIONS & WATER FILTRATION at ALL SCHOOLS! Looking forward to our burgeoning partnership! More to come!

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/4/18, 8:02 PM
@FlintSchools @MuskFoundation You’re most welcome. Hope to do more to help in the future.

<< Is @MuskFoundation actually affiliated with @elonmusk or was this a slip up from @FlintSchools ?
Flint Schools (@FlintSchools) 10/4/18, 8:47 PM
THIS IS REAL!


<< Did Elon actually send people to your house to help with your water issues?
Derek Dohrman (@DerekDohrman) 10/6/18, 8:04 AM
 yes. i responded to his original tweet with my water test results & after meeting w/ someone from his company in my home, he ended up paying for the reverse osmosis system, installation, and will cover filter replacement every 6 months. i am very grateful
https://twitter.com/derekdohrman/status/1048544569061720069
<<Wow had no idea. Glad he kept his promise to Flint residents. Thanks for replying.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 07, 2018, 11:05:53 PM
Flint has been providing free water filters to remove lead for years, and union plumbers have donated their time for installations. Was it more free filters that Musk had been pledging?

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/300-union-plumbers-flint_us_56b0e3c3e4b0a1b96203ce9e

Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 08, 2018, 02:09:46 AM
Flint has been providing free water filters to remove lead for years, and union plumbers have donated their time for installations. Was it more free filters that Musk had been pledging?

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/300-union-plumbers-flint_us_56b0e3c3e4b0a1b96203ce9e

Terry

There are homes with lead levels too high for regular filters.  Only some areas got filters; for those that have them, the cartridges must be replaced every few months, and are not cheap.  The city stopped giving out bottled water.  Only a small fraction of the affected lead pipes have been remediated.  And critical water infrastructure to facilities like schools have not been addressed.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/01/29/epa-high-lead-levels-flint-exceed-filters-ability/79540740/

https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-26/it-s-been-almost-three-years-flint-s-water-crisis-began-what-have-we-learned
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 08, 2018, 01:39:25 PM
Wow!  Safety is a prime factor in car-buying choice for many people.  Tesla just gave them another reason to go to their brand.

Model 3 achieves the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA
The Tesla Team October 7, 2018
Quote
Based on the advanced architecture of Model S and Model X, which were previously found by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to have the lowest and second lowest probabilities of injury of all cars ever tested, we engineered Model 3 to be the safest car ever built. Now, not only has Model 3 achieved a perfect 5-star safety rating in every category and sub-category, but NHTSA’s tests also show that it has the lowest probability of injury of all cars the safety agency has ever tested.
Quote
In addition to its near 50/50 weight distribution, Model 3 was also designed with an extremely low polar moment of inertia, which means that its heaviest components are located closer to the car’s center of gravity. Even though Model 3 has no engine, its performance is similar to what’s described as a “mid-engine car” due to its centered battery pack (the heaviest component of the car) and the fact that Model 3’s rear motor is placed slightly in front of the rear axle rather than behind it. Not only does this architecture add to the overall agility and handling of the car, it also improves the capability of stability control by minimizing rotational kinetic energy.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-3-lowest-probability-injury-any-vehicle-ever-tested-nhtsa


Tesla Model 3 achieves lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA
https://electrek.co/2018/10/07/tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 08, 2018, 06:56:23 PM
Institutional investors are in the process of exiting their positions. Retail investors will be left holding the bag (as is always the case unfortunately). Price will likely be driven down into the low 200s before an announcement is made which sends it into the single digits.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 08, 2018, 07:16:18 PM
Sig


I don't know it you're investment in TSLA is important financially. If so look at it closely, you can always come back if it turns.
It broke $260, then $252, I think the next break is $244 then never never land.


There's some big money moving things about.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 08, 2018, 10:23:55 PM
On a high volume day, TSLA closed down over ten buck around $250. So bizarre considering there was funding secured at $420  ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 08, 2018, 11:26:54 PM
Wow!  Safety is a prime factor in car-buying choice for many people.  Tesla just gave them another reason to go to their brand.

Tesla Model 3 achieves lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA
https://electrek.co/2018/10/07/tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa/

 i hope that includes top level safety for the occupants, because those usually are the two faces of the same medal where a best possible compromise has to be found.

nevertheless, is a good thing and aerodynamics favour this, the less edges and holes etc the smoother the surface and the better for the pedestrian victims of a crash
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 08, 2018, 11:53:19 PM
Wow!  Safety is a prime factor in car-buying choice for many people.  Tesla just gave them another reason to go to their brand.

Tesla Model 3 achieves lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA
https://electrek.co/2018/10/07/tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa/

 i hope that includes top level safety for the occupants, because those usually are the two faces of the same medal where a best possible compromise has to be found.

nevertheless, is a good thing and aerodynamics favour this, the less edges and holes etc the smoother the surface and the better for the pedestrian victims of a crash

Exactly, that is what is being measured:  the statistical likelihood of injury to the occupants of the car.  The Model 3 has the best results NHTSA has ever measured.  (And the Tesla Model S and Model X are the next best!)

The special hardening of certain beams, the placement of the motors, and sections that are designed to crumple and absorb the force of a crash — they all work to keep the passenger cabin from being intruded, thus helping to keep the occupants safe from injury.

Quote
We also added state of the art features and new innovations in crash structure design, restraints and airbags, and battery safety to the core of Model 3’s design:

In frontal crashes, Model 3’s efficient front crumple zone carefully controls the deceleration of occupants, while its advanced restraint system complements this with pre-tensioners and load-limiters that keep occupants safely in place. Specially designed passenger airbags are shaped to protect an occupant’s head in angled or offset crashes, and active vents dynamically adjust the internal pressure of the frontal airbags to optimize protection based on the unique characteristics of the crash. Front and knee airbags and a collapsible steering column work to further reduce injury, all contributing to Model 3’s 5-star rating in frontal impact.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-3-lowest-probability-injury-any-vehicle-ever-tested-nhtsa
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 12:30:18 AM
Quote
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 10/8/18, 10:07 AM
This graph proves why incumbents aren’t going to win the race. It takes a new way of thinking. If you ever heard that the Bolt was going to compete with the Model 3, you may want to cut bad news sources from your perspective, every single one lied or didn’t understand the subject
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1049300198965403649
First graph below.

Quote
Tesla has been very open about expected production. 6k/wk now, ramping to 10k+/wk for Fremont alone. Two more factories, one in China, the other in the EU. the Media told you that other OEM’S would see this coming and could ramp faster. So where are the Camry and Accord [Battery Electric Vehicle versions]?
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1049304847000846337
Second graph below.


Tesla Model 3 production ramp pushes forward with 17.8k VIN filings in 7 days
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-ramp-17k-vin-registrations-7-days/
“Tesla does seem to be showing indications that it is preparing to bring the Model 3 to other countries.”

Meanwhile, ICE car manufacturers are struggling:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg176162.html#msg176162
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 09, 2018, 12:31:48 AM
I find it interesting that those downplaying Tesla have had to stop saying "whilst Tesla struggles to manufacture Model 3's in volume".

Also pulled from a Q2 analysis.

Quote
The net loss more than doubled from the same quarter a year ago, and was slightly larger than the first quarter. But Tesla's cash burn in the second quarter slowed.

It fails to mention that the cash burn slowed but the volume of vehicles manufactured increased dramatically.

I, for one, am happy to wait for the announcement.

There are two ways to view the end of October date.

First, that they are just delaying bad news.
Second, that they are keeping good news so that the stock bounce has a much better chance of allowing the conversion of the debt in November.

We shall see which one it is.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 12:45:30 AM
The Tesla quarterly Financial Results and Q&A Webcast historically have occurred on the first Wednesday of the month, a little more than a month after the close of the quarter (generally the same time that other companies report their quarterly results).  The Q3 event is thus expected to fall on November 7 this year.

http://ir.tesla.com/events-and-presentations
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 09, 2018, 12:56:58 AM
3 more senior execs have abandoned ship in the past month. Likely, they are trying to escape before profitability.  ;)

Mandy Yang, Senior Director & Worldwide Controller, Revenue Accounting
Minesh Shah, Senior Director, North America Operations
Garrett Page,  Senior Retail Operations Manager, EMEA
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 01:06:29 AM
Watch Rollover test of a Tesla Model X.  The safest SUV ever tested by NHTSA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L24xzJkCGdk


Tesla Model 3 has the lowest intrusion from side pole impact of any vehicle tested by NHTSA.
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1049285776393953280
(Brief clip: impact test of Model 3, compared to Lexus ES 350.)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 01:14:35 AM
Bloomberg had reported the NHTSA results by the 20th of last month. Any ideas on why the rehash now?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-20/tesla-model-3-sedan-aces-all-of-u-s-safety-agency-s-crash-tests?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 01:16:12 AM
Musk and Tesla are doing much better than headlines suggest
Three dark-arts PR issues intersect for Tesla and Musk
Quote
Tesla and Elon Musk are having a terrible time getting basic, neutral, balanced press coverage. They’ve achieved enormous results in ramping up the Tesla Model 3 production faster than almost any new model car in history, they are outselling their competitors massively in North America and Europe, they still have hundreds of thousands of $1,000 pre-orders for the Tesla Model 3 (more than any car ever anywhere), Teslas continue to win raves from teardown analysts and test drivers, its autonomous features continue to be the best of any production vehicles, its market capitalization is 10 times what it was 5 years ago, and the Model 3 itself is on track to soon be the fifth or sixth best selling car in the USA of any make, model, or price point. In a normal world, this string of successes would lead to incredibly positive coverage.

But this isn’t a normal world. Media outlets of all types are disproportionately covering every negative story, distorting the narrative around neutral stories and reporting any rumor about Elon Musk they can find. As the chart shows, news sentiment is often negative despite the incredibly positive results. It doesn’t take much reading of Musk’s actual tweets or Tesla’s actual results to see the massive disparity between how Tesla and Musk are portrayed and what they are actually doing.
Why is the media getting Tesla and Musk so wrong right now? There are three major problems which have led to this situation:
   1   PR campaigns attacking electric cars funded by the Koch brothers and other elements of the fossil fuel industry
   2   PR campaigns attacking Tesla funded by firms which are shorting TSLA stock
   3   Media revenue, cost and competition challenges

Let’s start with the Koch brothers...
https://medium.com/the-future-is-electric/musk-and-tesla-are-doing-much-better-than-headlines-suggest-9091d8ea59d0
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 01:20:16 AM
Bloomberg had reported the NHTSA results by the 20th of last month. Any ideas on why the rehash now?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-20/tesla-model-3-sedan-aces-all-of-u-s-safety-agency-s-crash-tests?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

Terry

The earlier reports announced that the Model 3 was 5-star in every NHTSA category.

The new news is that when they finished crunching all the numbers, they confirmed the Model 3 achieved the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA.

The safest car they ever tested!

https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-3-lowest-probability-injury-any-vehicle-ever-tested-nhtsa
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 01:31:59 AM
You're right - The Bloomberg article does say 5 out of 5 for all models, but not that they scored higher than the competition.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 01:44:34 AM
You're right - The Bloomberg article does say 5 out of 5 for all models, but not that they scored higher than the competition.
Terry

Waiting for the anti-Tesla crowd to exclaim, “Tesla Model S and X both plummet [from Best and #2, to #2 and #3] on NHTSA injury probability list....beaten by some car we can’t remember the name of”  ::)  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 02:02:31 AM
The TSLA market it too volatile for my stomach. Opened at $315 just 5 days ago & closed at $250 today.


The last time I took a flyer on the market it cost me $50k back in 1991. Not enough to ruin things, but certainly enough to remind me to let the experts handle my day to day investing.


An uncle became a Millionaire at 22 playing the market during the depression - can you imagine how much a $M would have purchased in the early 30's?


Real Estate rentals can get you to the same place, it just takes a lot more time and effort. :-\
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 03:33:08 AM
The TSLA market it too volatile for my stomach. Opened at $315 just 5 days ago & closed at $250 today.


The last time I took a flyer on the market it cost me $50k back in 1991. Not enough to ruin things, but certainly enough to remind me to let the experts handle my day to day investing.


An uncle became a Millionaire at 22 playing the market during the depression - can you imagine how much a $M would have purchased in the early 30's?


Real Estate rentals can get you to the same place, it just takes a lot more time and effort. :-\
Terry

$TSLA is for long-term investing, not short-term.  I (and others) expect to see the stock over $1,000 in just a few years.  The curent volatility is just noise.

Quote
Billionaire investor Ron Baron, a huge shareholder in the electric car company, told CNBC back in November that he believes he can make 20 times his money on the stock over the next 10 to 15 years.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/ark-chief-catherine-wood-sees-tesla-stock-going-to-4000.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 01:49:42 PM
Tesla Model 3 Is #1 Top Selling American Car In USA
October 8th, 2018
Quote
Tesla’s production and sales growth is stunning. It is one of the most dramatic manufacturing stories in US history, let alone 2018. The sales records and eye-warping bar charts are in multiple important categories, not just in the electric vehicle space.

However, one story I haven’t seen highlighted yet is that the Tesla Model 3 was the #1 top selling American car in September. The only three cars that sold more than this American success story were the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, and Honda Civic.

In fact, if you keep going down the list, you don’t land on a car from another American automaker until you get to the #8 Ford Fusion. After that, you don’t get to a third one until you land on the #13 Chevy Cruze.

The crazy thing is that the US is supposed to be enthusiastically supporting US manufacturing companies, yet this headline is absent from the mainstream media and all but unnoticed by the American public.

We reported earlier this year that Tesla contributed approximately $5.1 billion to the California economy in 2017. It supported 51,000 jobs — direct and indirect — last year.

That was all before the dramatic increase in Model 3 production this year. The 2018 total is sure to blow the 2017 total out of the water. That appears to be Tesla’s story — explosive growth — a story that is for some reason largely ignored by major media outlets. They’ve got a great American success story right under their noses and they’re flipping the script simply because they’ve fallen for or fallen into a vast Tesla smear campaign.

Also, that’s just California. Move east a bit and you find that Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada happens to be two years ahead of schedule, if you go back to Tesla’s 2014 vision for the factory. In August, the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development indicated that Tesla had been exceeding its Gigafactory performance targets.

“The audit found that Tesla spent a mind-boggling $459 million in capital at the Gigafactory in the fourth quarter, bringing cumulative capital spending up to $3.7 billion by the end of Q4 2017,” Kyle Field wrote for CleanTechnica.

“If you add in the $402 million in spending for the first half of 2018, Tesla has already exceeded $4 billion in capital spending at the Gigafactory. …
“On the employment front, Tesla added more than 34% more employees, with 832 new hires being added in Q4. The surge brought total enrollment at the Gigafactory up to 3,249. On top of the new Tesla employees, the Gigafactory employed 1,332 new construction workers, bringing the total number of construction workers to 13,743 — or more people than the town I grew up in.
“Indeed, the thought of a single facility only a few years old employing 16,992 employees is staggering and puts some scale to the work happening at the Gigafactory in support of Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp.”

It boggles the mind. Major media outlets are supposed to care about American jobs. They are supposed to care about manufacturing jobs for middle-class Americans. They are supposed to care about clean air for their and your children. They are supposed to care about a livable climate for our future. They are supposed to care about innovation and American ingenuity for the greater good.

Yet, the Tesla story they keep stumbling upon is a nonsensical narrative put forth by Tesla [TSLA] short sellers and the giant corporate powers that want to keep Tesla down. They skip all of this useful and positive news about Tesla — even missing the fact that the Tesla Model 3 is now the top selling car from an American auto manufacturer. Instead, they roll themselves down into a pile of financial propaganda sewage. Not cool, and for what purpose?

How can the US media so blatantly miss this American success story?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/08/tesla-model-3-is-1-top-selling-american-car-in-usa/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 09, 2018, 03:41:17 PM
a variation of takes from different sub-sources, worth to be read carefully and not for just the headline, more for the reasoning.

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2018/10/05/hedge-fund-manager-david-einhorn-deception-will-catch-up-to-tesla/

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/einhorn-on-tesla-like-lehman-we-think-the-deception-is-about-to-catch-up-to-tsla.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-greenlight-stake/despondent-musks-tesla-resembles-lehman-greenlights-einhorn-says-idUSKCN1MF27C

BTW i observe that with few exceptions this thread is about:

tesla is a good car vs. tesla as a company will fail in it's current form

this is a problem IMO. there are a few contributors here who try to explain why tesla will fail as an enterprise, independent of the product's quality.

then those who do not share that opinion about the outcome of tesla as an enterprise counter the reasoning with a glorification of the product.

dear friends and tesla fans:

- i'm a fan of the product myself

- i see the important role tesla played/plays to bring more EVs to the market in the long run

but my dear fellow users, this has nothing to do with whether tesla will fail as an enterprise for the reasons explained.

just look back in history to see how many companies with a good product, at times even better than the competition, failed or almost failed, only due to mismanagement and/or legal shortcomings.

this thread is not about whether tesla is a great product / car or not. i like tesla's and often was tempted to buy, only that my wife decides about cars not me, because i dirve 99% on motorcycles ;) and yes, each year i check for electric ones that meet my standards, not yet.

back on topic, i suggest that in reply to reasons as to why tesla will fail economically, that the replies stay on that topic and reply directly to the reasoning, not diverting from economical facts into technological qualities (glory so to say)

nevertheless it's interesting here and there is a lot to learn, that's good and thanks everyone.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 09, 2018, 03:47:45 PM
Deception is about to catch up to someone alright. Given that you quoted Breitbart makes me more confident  that it won’t be Tesla.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 09, 2018, 03:58:15 PM
that's a common way of denial of facts, to doubt the source.

generally i quote what i read and the sources are manifold that say the same.

further each reason should be checked based on facts and not only by source, means, wrong source = discarded that's not an honest and wise approach.

if facts speak against a reasoning it can still be discarded but not within 1 minute, means, obviously without even reading, neither the post to the end nore the linked article.

your reply was so quick that it's clear that you didn't care to read, means you reply without digesting the information provided, even less so considering the information provided.

as long as your bias is so huge that you reply without reading and weighing things against each other, i'd say the reply can be ignored as not qualified. so at least try to read information
and deny after reading and not before, else this entire exchange is totally useless and just
a kind of venting bias.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 09, 2018, 04:01:51 PM
If Breitbart publishes it is spin and lies as a rule. You are correct didn’t read your links. I already know the story.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 09, 2018, 04:16:59 PM
If Breitbart publishes it is spin and lies as a rule. You are correct didn’t read your links. I already know the story.

the main source was not breitbart BTW and only 1 link was breitbart the others were reuter's and cnbc, i on purpose linked the same main source from 3 sub-sources, exactly because i know that each source has it's own group of enemies, but you obviously only read a third of the first link.

already said but just in case, nothing is from breitbart, it's form someone else and was just published by different media, thousands of media, i've found it on a german platform and was looking for the same in english to cope with the forum's language.

all this just underlines that reading before judging is mandatory to have a fruitful discussion.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 09, 2018, 04:44:11 PM
I’m just saying that the fact that Breitbart is sharing this means it is likely propaganda. That’s what Breitbart does. It’s a propaganda outlet. It’s the same thing if you link WUWT. It is pretty much guaranteed to be a lie.

Either way we find out soon over me next several months who is deceiving.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 09, 2018, 05:41:18 PM
I’m just saying that the fact that Breitbart is sharing this means it is likely propaganda. That’s what Breitbart does. It’s a propaganda outlet. It’s the same thing if you link WUWT. It is pretty much guaranteed to be a lie.

Either way we find out soon over me next several months who is deceiving.

What nonsense your worldview must be. Singling out Breitbart as propaganda...I mean of course it is, but I get the strong sense that you don't think the NYT is equally propaganda (which it is) or that NPR is equally propaganda (which is it) or that information put out by all governments is equally propaganda (which it is).

And most absurd of all: Electrek, InsideEVs, CleanTechnica, and Teslarati are not just normal propaganda outlets, they are single-issue propagandists. From now on I expect a comment from Archimid calling out every article Sig cites from these propagandists.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 09, 2018, 05:47:31 PM
I’m just saying that the fact that Breitbart is sharing this means it is likely propaganda.

Not really.  They are extremely bad for propaganda but, in this case, all they had to do was repeat the words of a hedge fund manager who was dissing Tesla whilst shorting Tesla.

The fund manager sent round a letter likening Tesla to Lehmans.  Mainly in terms of Lehmans actions and Musks actions.

The situations are, however, entirely different.  Yes Lehmans threatened the shorts, didn't raise capital and talked about going private.  However there the parallels end.  Lehmans product was little short of a confidence trick, it was clear that the financial markets were heading into extremely choppy water and the first to blink was going to take the full force of the weather.  Simply by going to the market to raise funds could have taken Lehmans over the top anyway.

Then they talk about Musk trying to sell Tesla in 2013 as if the two situations are parallel.

Tesla is in an entirely different position, today.  Market liquidity is not bad, availability of funds, should Tesla need to raise them, is also not bad.  Tesla produces an actual product which is highly sought after and has an intrinsic value.

The spin from Briebart is more about giving a platform to a shorting hedge fund manager so that he can short some more and still make money out of it.

Now the ball in is Tesla's court.  If they make a profit in Q3, even if it is small and technical, the shorts are going to be hurting.  If they make a second profit in Q4, non technical and building on the Q3 profit, then the shorts are going to get flamed.

Time will tell.  But, if you check, Tesla switched operation mode late in Q2.  Up until now it has been using any and all profits to grow and expand.  From Q2, Tesla has been focusing on Model 3 delivery and plans to grown have become less important.  The expensive contractors are being engineered out of the system and it is all narrowing down to one thing.  A sustainable operating profit.

Once we have got over that hump, Tesla will probably go back to growing but it won't, for some time, go back into loss making.  All drive and focus will be on making the profit which will then be spent on expanding the business.  Both vertically and horizontally.

OR.

I'm clueless and Tesla is going down the tubes....

One slightly important thing to note though.  Those analysts and fund managers predicting the imminent demise of Tesla have money riding on the failure of Tesla.  Those who are reasonably neutral are much more balanced about the direction and future of Tesla.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 09, 2018, 05:52:24 PM
What nonsense your worldview must be. Singling out Breitbart as propaganda...I mean of course it is, but I get the strong sense that you don't think the NYT is equally propaganda (which it is) or that NPR is equally propaganda (which is it) or that information put out by all governments is equally propaganda (which it is).

I can't argue too much with that.  The modern information consumer swims in a world of "interest" and bias.  In the UK we have taken to calling the BBC the "Biased Broadcasting Corporation" because of their unbelievably biased way of reporting on "Diversity".

It is up to the modern consumer to verify the positions which are being presented and that can only be done by chasing down the stories in both directions until one becomes untenable.

The current case in point is impossible to do that because one avenue leads to the Tesla Q3 financial results and they have not been released.  It is impossible to predict what they may be because Tesla has never made this volume of cars before, nor with this particular manufacturing mix.  So we have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 05:53:21 PM
magnamentis wrote:
Quote
there are a few contributors here who try to explain why tesla will fail as an enterprise, independent of the product's quality.
then those who do not share that opinion about the outcome of tesla as an enterprise counter the reasoning with a glorification of the product.

Perhaps that is because we have been hearing constantly, insistently, for years that Tesla will fail Any Day Now.  And that argument has been constantly wrong.  Wrong.  Wrong.  So, we see no reason to argue about such misinformation.  Tesla has explained that massively increased revenue from the mass production of the Model 3, among other things, will lead to it being “sustainably profitable” as of the end of this year.  Why not wait and see? 

Tesla’s success is totally because of its amazing products; doing things no company has done before.  That cannot be put aside simply because of a desire to focus on selected negative aspects. 

It’s clear no one is going to change their mind on this.  Only time will provide the answer! 

This thread was established to provide links and articles for and against Tesla, so that a reader can decide for themselves which way the company will go.  So here’s more evidence that Tesla is succeeding very well, thank you, and will succeed mightily in the future :) :


Tesla on path to profitability this year and 70% stock gain, Macquarie says
Quote
Macquarie Research has begun coverage of Tesla with an outperform rating, saying shares of the electric auto maker can pop more than 70 percent.

"We view Tesla as a disruptive technology growth company with differentiated products and strong brand presence in the secularly growing and equally disruptive markets of electric vehicles, energy storage, and energy generation," Macquarie analyst Maynard Um said in a note Monday evening.

"Tesla appears on track for production targets & should be able to achieve profitability" in the second half of this year," Um said.
Macquarie has price target of $430 a share on Tesla stock, which is 72 percent above Monday's closing price of $250.56 a share.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/tesla-on-path-to-profitability-this-year-and-70percent-stock-gain-analyst.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

—-
“If you are trying to understand Tesla’s impact after the Model 3 production ramp, this is one of the most interesting data points.
     They are outselling Mercedes-Benz with only 3 options in the premium segment.”
Tesla outsold Mercedes-Benz in the US last quarter, reports says
https://electrek.co/2018/10/09/tesla-outsold-mercedes-benz-us/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 09, 2018, 06:22:48 PM
magnamentis wrote:
Quote
there are a few contributors here who try to explain why tesla will fail as an enterprise, independent of the product's quality.
then those who do not share that opinion about the outcome of tesla as an enterprise counter the reasoning with a glorification of the product.

Perhaps that is because we have been hearing constantly, insistently, for years that Tesla will fail Any Day Now.  And that argument has been constantly wrong.  Wrong.  Wrong.  So, we see no reason to argue about such misinformation.  Tesla has explained that massively increased revenue from the mass production of the Model 3, among other things, will lead to it being “sustainably profitable” as of the end of this year.  Why not wait and see? 


No, I don't think there was actually much discussion about failure until recently, even among shorts. But at least here on the forums, the criticism has been directed at Musk and his approach to solving climate change.  It's only been in the last year that there's been mainstream press suggesting Tesla is in its deathrow.

Tesla receives so much attention because it's showing similar signs to Theranos and other deceptive companies. Erratic CEO, executive exodus, operational chaos, secrecy behind reports, lawsuits, whistle-blowers, lies, desperation. And you can't even blame FUD on most of this, since it quite literally comes from Elon Musk himself --the 420 tweet, calling the diver a pedo, asking for volunteers to work at TSLA, smoking weed on Rogan's podcast, the SEC tweet.  The list goes on and on and on and on.  These are not signs of a healthy company. 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 09, 2018, 06:44:38 PM
I’m just saying that the fact that Breitbart is sharing this means it is likely propaganda.

Not really.  They are extremely bad for propaganda but, in this case, all they had to do was repeat the words of a hedge fund manager who was dissing Tesla whilst shorting Tesla.

The fund manager sent round a letter likening Tesla to Lehmans.  Mainly in terms of Lehmans actions and Musks actions.

The situations are, however, entirely different.  Yes Lehmans threatened the shorts, didn't raise capital and talked about going private.  However there the parallels end.  Lehmans product was little short of a confidence trick, it was clear that the financial markets were heading into extremely choppy water and the first to blink was going to take the full force of the weather.  Simply by going to the market to raise funds could have taken Lehmans over the top anyway.

Then they talk about Musk trying to sell Tesla in 2013 as if the two situations are parallel.

Tesla is in an entirely different position, today.  Market liquidity is not bad, availability of funds, should Tesla need to raise them, is also not bad.  Tesla produces an actual product which is highly sought after and has an intrinsic value.

The spin from Briebart is more about giving a platform to a shorting hedge fund manager so that he can short some more and still make money out of it.

Now the ball in is Tesla's court.  If they make a profit in Q3, even if it is small and technical, the shorts are going to be hurting.  If they make a second profit in Q4, non technical and building on the Q3 profit, then the shorts are going to get flamed.

Time will tell.  But, if you check, Tesla switched operation mode late in Q2.  Up until now it has been using any and all profits to grow and expand.  From Q2, Tesla has been focusing on Model 3 delivery and plans to grown have become less important.  The expensive contractors are being engineered out of the system and it is all narrowing down to one thing.  A sustainable operating profit.

Once we have got over that hump, Tesla will probably go back to growing but it won't, for some time, go back into loss making.  All drive and focus will be on making the profit which will then be spent on expanding the business.  Both vertically and horizontally.

OR.

I'm clueless and Tesla is going down the tubes....

One slightly important thing to note though.  Those analysts and fund managers predicting the imminent demise of Tesla have money riding on the failure of Tesla.  Those who are reasonably neutral are much more balanced about the direction and future of Tesla.

This is the second time you've done this. You make it seem like the Lehman were selling fairy dust. But it was still based off a tangible product - mortgage securities. Houses.  The way they were bought, sold, and packaged was the problem.

Why can we assume Musk is immune from arrogance and behavior that took down companies like Lehman. Just because the end product is different doesn't mean he can't use deception to grow his business.  How do we know that he isn't fudging the numbers? We've already seen there's been large gaps in VINs. We've seen huge parking lots full of dusty unsold cars. We've seen chaos with repairs and servicing. We've seen aggressive tactics to sell the dinged up cars.  We've seen that he can't pay his vendors. We've seen that people are willing to whistle blow.

What happens if there's a downturn in the economy? Do honestly think that TSLA will be able to keep its lights on while meeting its warranty obligations? The company can only survive if it shows aggressive growth.
Hell, The Lehmans et al. could have survived as well if it wasn't for that stupid housing downturn.

And how can you say market liquidity is not bad? The bond yield is almost 9%. The stock prices wildly swing. And they're highly leveraged.
What are you comparing TSLA to? 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 09, 2018, 06:50:30 PM
Tesla’s success is totally because of its amazing products; doing things no company has done before.  That cannot be put aside simply because of a desire to focus on selected negative aspects.

True but let us put it in another perspective.

Tesla is in two markets.  Luxury and family car.  The luxury side is humming along quite nicely thanks and nobody suggests that anything has changed there.

So here is the other side.  Tesla is selling a product which fits firmly in the $25,000 to $35,000 family car market.  Yet Tesla, so far, has been selling these cars in a configuration which is nearer $55,000.  In a volume very close to the highest volume manufacturers of the standard family car.

Somehow the bears and the shorts are suggesting that a vehicle with an estimated build cost of $28,000 (estimated via the industry expert teardown), being sold at $55,000 is going to be a loss making venture and that the more of them Tesla makes the worse the loss will be.

Sorry that's not quite working for me.  We know Tesla service is losing money as are other parts.  The supercharging network is not actually losing money but the profit from it is being used to expand the network rather than boost the Tesla profit margin.  But to suggest that the profit from some 53,000 Tesla Model 3's with ~$27,000 of gross margin on each model, is going to result in such a huge loss that Tesla goes under, is a touch hard to take.

Even if the Model 3 is massively more expensive to manufacture than the experts estimate, they are still going to have generated some Billion or so of gross revenue and that is without Models S and X.


When I read the analysis  which states

Quote
"Tesla appears on track for production targets & should be able to achieve profitability" in the second half of this year," Um said.
Macquarie has price target of $430 a share on Tesla stock, which is 72 percent above Monday's closing price of $250.56 a share.

I'm very interested to see just how well Tesla did.  It will also give us a better idea of the unit net profit on a Model 3
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 09, 2018, 06:57:48 PM
This is the second time you've done this. You make it seem like the Lehman were selling fairy dust. But it was still based off a tangible product - mortgage securities. Houses.  The way they were bought, sold, and packaged was the problem.

What you mean selling a 110% mortgage to a buyer with a CCJ (county court judgement), for failing to repay debt, with virtually no chance of repayment, bundling it with some penny stocks and selling it for 100 times it's realistic return on investment if the borrower ever actually intended to repay it?

Then, when the days of "30% growth" stopped, because there were no easy companies to take over, so you could report a 30% growth in revenue and profit for the combined group; taking these same derivatives and using them to underpin the continued performance growth of the company.

Just packaging?

Right.

I'll shut up about it then as, it appears, I know nothing about it!  Obviously Tesla is EXACTLY the same as Lehmans and all Tesla cars are going to suddenly fall apart and be worthless.

Except, wait, There are Tesla cars out there which are running on a million miles and still have value.

Dear me, what to think!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 09, 2018, 07:08:19 PM
yeah. packaging.  It was deceitful and fraudulent. But it was still a security. A garbage security. The car is still a car. But we have no idea how much it actually costs Tesla to manufacturer the car and if they can meet future obligations.

I wonder if the banks were bold enough to sell securities that didn't even contain houses  ;)

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9cdhgy/50_days_fully_paid_still_no_delivery_a_texas_story/

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9983qx/discussion_paid_tesla_60k_in_full_for_my_model_3/

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2018, 07:21:17 PM
“The list goes on and on and on and on.  These are not signs of a healthy company.“

Yet in that same period, Tesla established the first wholly-owned American car factory in China, introduced dual-motor and Performance versions of the Model 3, and doubled U.S. sales!

If that’s crazy, I say bring on more crazy.  (After all, we didn’t hear anything about J.B. Straubel sleeping on the factory floor....)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 09, 2018, 07:23:42 PM
zizek it's funny because your first link is from one month ago, and contains a link to an updated post from 4 days later:
Quote
That is, as of today my Model 3 has been 100% paid off for 50 days. I do not have my car, I do not have a delivery date, and my second loan payment will be paid today. The service and communication I have experienced from Tesla has been remarkably poor.

Quote
General[UPDATE] 54 days fully paid, I have taken delivery: A Texas Follow Up
This all happened very quickly since the weekend. Yesterday I became the first Tesla customer in Texas to take at home delivery of their Model 3. I was contacted on Sunday by someone high up in Tesla Delivery operations, and they were my sole contact for the rest of the way. In fact he personally delivered my car!

Yes they had a delivery hell, but not they are not a fraud.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 09, 2018, 07:26:48 PM
yeah. packaging.  It was deceitful and fraudulent. But it was still a security. A garbage security. The car is still a car. But we have no idea how much it actually costs Tesla to manufacturer the car and if they can meet future obligations.

In the recent tear down done by industry experts, they estimated ~$28,000 for the materials AND manufacture of the vehicle.  Which was selling for $55,000.

So, to get to a gross margin of 12%, which analysts were estimating, of $6,600, Telsa would have to be manufacturing the car at an average cost of $48,400.

Interesting question.  Because to manufacture the car and make a profit, selling at $35,000, Tesla would have to actually build it for around $28,000.

So if the cost is nearer $48,000 then Tesla will only make $350m in gross profit on those 53,000 cars.  If, however, it is closer to $28,000 then Tesla will make closer to $1.4bn gross profit.

It is going to be an interesting read in November.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 07:29:02 PM
I'll assume every one here has read Einhorn's piece. I'm asking if his information on the installed solar tile roofs is correct.
I've no information one way or the other, but if true the spending of $2.6B by Tesla does raise serious questions.
It would also seem very stupid of Einhorn to have fudged this as it should be fairly easy to refute.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 09, 2018, 07:53:15 PM
zizek it's funny because your first link is from one month ago, and contains a link to an updated post from 4 days later:
Quote
That is, as of today my Model 3 has been 100% paid off for 50 days. I do not have my car, I do not have a delivery date, and my second loan payment will be paid today. The service and communication I have experienced from Tesla has been remarkably poor.

Quote
General[UPDATE] 54 days fully paid, I have taken delivery: A Texas Follow Up
This all happened very quickly since the weekend. Yesterday I became the first Tesla customer in Texas to take at home delivery of their Model 3. I was contacted on Sunday by someone high up in Tesla Delivery operations, and they were my sole contact for the rest of the way. In fact he personally delivered my car!

Yes they had a delivery hell, but not they are not a fraud.

It is fraud if Musk is lying about the commitments it can make.  His valuation is supposed to reflect what the company is capable of.

You can not handwave away all the problems of Tesla as "delivery hell", or "production hell" or "painting hell" or whatever hell is convenient, as if it's just a minor hiccup.

Why is he is using volunteers in the same year he made huge lay-offs? Why is he claiming their is a lack-of car carriers when industry is claiming their is no such thing? Why is his yard a complete disaster? Why does he keep on having fires at his plants? Why are their lots full of dusty Teslas? Why are there huge waits for servicing and parts, especially in Europe?

It's because he can't afford to pay for it all.  The cars are simply to expensive to produce for such an amateur operation. His egotistical pee-brain thought he could revolutionize the auto-making industry if they just did it his way. But he was wrong. And like other Silicon Valley failures, he will never admit to it. He will continue to try and raise funds in the hope he can make a hail mary. But he will never be profitable. And he will go bankrupt.  And when he does, we will see clear as day that he was using deception this entire time to give Tesla a final lifeline.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 09, 2018, 08:05:13 PM
It just blows my mind that some of you won't even entertain the idea that Musk is capable of deception and fraud. His arrogance is shown in plain view through his twitter.  Have we not learned anything from previous failure like Enron and Theranos? Or should we just keep on shoveling money into his company because.........
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 09, 2018, 08:48:06 PM
I'm a fairly casual reader of this thread, so who is "shoveling money into [Musk's] company"?  I understood he is not asking for more loans.  Do you mean by this: buying his products?  Tesla car owners, it seems, tend to feel they got a good deal.

I 'get it' that some think functionally everything Musk does is fraudulent while others think he just has some very public personality flaws (or something like that).  Some of what he is doing is clearly (at least to me) not fraudulent; a few things appear to be illegal or unethical; other things, I don't know.  All in all, I feel the jury is still out, but leaning toward hand-slapping, rather than planning for 'vulture time'.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 09, 2018, 09:11:32 PM
I'll assume every one here has read Einhorn's piece. I'm asking if his information on the installed solar tile roofs is correct.
I've no information one way or the other, but if true the spending of $2.6B by Tesla does raise serious questions.
It would also seem very stupid of Einhorn to have fudged this as it should be fairly easy to refute.
Terry
I didn't see any mention of the solar roofs in the articles about Einhorn's letter. Do you have a link to the actual letter?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 09:31:27 PM
I'll assume every one here has read Einhorn's piece. I'm asking if his information on the installed solar tile roofs is correct.
I've no information one way or the other, but if true the spending of $2.6B by Tesla does raise serious questions.
It would also seem very stupid of Einhorn to have fudged this as it should be fairly easy to refute.
Terry
I didn't see any mention of the solar roofs in the articles about Einhorn's letter. Do you have a link to the actual letter?
I read it yesterday while scanning through a giant trove of reddit / tesla posts. I'll see if I can't google it & I'll get back to you.


Today I've been scanning through what's available re. Solar City's solar roofs. We'd had a thread here but it hasn't been touched for over a year. Einhorn had some very low numbers for the Tesla Tiles installations & I'm attempting to see if there is any truth to that.


With all the back and forth about Einhorn's missive I thought someone must have actually read it.


I'll be out for a few hours, but will devote some time trying to find a copy when I return. I won't spend hours trying to back-track through reddit. :P
Cheers
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 09:38:54 PM

orenScratch the above. I stumbled on this as I was about to walk out the door.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-05/deception-about-catch-david-einhorn-unleashes-elon-musk-compares-tesla-lehman

The full letter is at the bottom of the page. I don't have time to read it now.

Have Funn!
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 09, 2018, 10:24:29 PM
Accounting hell:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/tesla-sued-by-nevada-over-unpaid-taxes-for-workers-in-the-state

Quote
Tesla Inc. failed to pay $655,000 to Nevada’s Unemployment Compensation Fund, the state alleges in a lawsuit filed in Las Vegas on Monday.



$50 million placed for collection in August:
https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1049744201980792832
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 09, 2018, 10:52:00 PM
The full letter is at the bottom of the page. I don't have time to read it now.
Thanks Terry. Indeed there is a paragraph about the solar roof.
Quote
In 2016, Mr. Musk bluffed his way through the TSLA bailout of SolarCity by demonstrating a very exciting but fake product called Solar Roof.  The company started taking $1,000 deposits in May 2017 and launched the product in August 2017, but as of May 31, 2018, reports indicate that only 12 Solar Roofs have been fully installed – 11 of which are owned by Tesla employees.
SolarCity was a big mistake on Tesla's part, rammed through by Musk if I am not mistaken - I haven't followed the company closely back then. The price was inflated way above the actual value at the time.
I'm pretty sure there are very few installations of the solar roof, if any, but sig can easily update about that. Was it fake or very delayed - I have no idea, though I'd be surprised if it's completely bogus.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 09, 2018, 11:05:20 PM
Purchasing a failing company like SolarCity seems like an obvious mistake. But it looks more like a bailout since its founder and CEO was Musk's cousin.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 10, 2018, 12:04:34 AM
SolarCity was a big mistake on Tesla's part, rammed through by Musk if I am not mistaken - I haven't followed the company closely back then. The price was inflated way above the actual value at the time.

I'm pretty sure there are very few installations of the solar roof, if any, but sig can easily update about that. Was it fake or very delayed - I have no idea, though I'd be surprised if it's completely bogus.

It's ALL bogus: the hyperloop, the tunnels, the solar roof, the cheap luxury EV, etc. Although if you want to abandon all reason, you can think of it as VERY delayed. We can discuss the semantics of it over coffee in a few years on Mars.  ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 10, 2018, 01:07:33 AM
I’m just saying that the fact that Breitbart is sharing this means it is likely propaganda. That’s what Breitbart does. It’s a propaganda outlet. It’s the same thing if you link WUWT. It is pretty much guaranteed to be a lie.

Either way we find out soon over me next several months who is deceiving.

i got your point and don't contradict it, it's just never black and white

further no matter what will happen, in the worst case it's false opinion but not a lie, a lie is
purposeful while an error is not.

for the rest, as you say, we shall see, i was really just sharing, no further motives or assessments.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 10, 2018, 01:15:14 AM

One slightly important thing to note though.  Those analysts and fund managers predicting the imminent demise of Tesla have money riding on the failure of Tesla.  Those who are reasonably neutral are much more balanced about the direction and future of Tesla.

this and the entire post pretty much nails it, good post over all, independent of individual believes and opinions.

perhaps i should mention that i added to almost every collapse prediction the term "in it's current (independent) form"

i by no means believe that the brand will disappear, i simply believe that either the management will change and/or a big player will buy the entire car manufacturing part or the entire company.
this mostly due to the fact that the current way the company is managed will ultimately destroy
trust of investors and lead to the same result, management change and/or sell out.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 10, 2018, 02:07:04 AM
Accounting hell:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/tesla-sued-by-nevada-over-unpaid-taxes-for-workers-in-the-state (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/tesla-sued-by-nevada-over-unpaid-taxes-for-workers-in-the-state)

Quote
Tesla Inc. failed to pay $655,000 to Nevada’s Unemployment Compensation Fund, the state alleges in a lawsuit filed in Las Vegas on Monday.



$50 million placed for collection in August:
https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1049744201980792832 (https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1049744201980792832)


In California the fine for such failures to pay is (or was) 300% of what is owed. Nevada and California's laws on such matters are usually similar or the same.
Some of this has been overdue since March 1, $655,000 over 2 quarters, that's one hell of a "clerical error"


The way I'm reading the Dun and Bradstreet report is that Tesla owed $50.5M for July and an additional $6.8M in August that has been placed for collection. I'd assume that this is due to subs or suppliers, who probably are less than pleased.


Tesla supposedly has money in the bank. Why they aren't paying their bills in a timely manner is anyone's guess.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 10, 2018, 05:43:22 PM

I'm clueless and Tesla is going down the tubes....


 ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 10, 2018, 05:51:11 PM
Tesla established the first wholly-owned American car factory in China...

This is 100% false. Can you show me a picture of this factory? NO! There is APPARENTLY a PRELIMINARY agreement. Gigafactory on Mars is only slightly less likely.

(Btw, in China they don't have patience for non-Politburo scams...and if Musk was running his scheme in China they would blindfold him and shoot him in the back of the head)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 07:36:57 PM
Delayed, yes.  “Fake,” no.

“Last week, we reported on the first few customer installations of the new Tesla solar roof tiles, but the systems were unfortunately not up and running due to delays with the local electric utility.”
First Tesla solar roof customer installation is now up and running - feeding the grid and Powerwall
https://electrek.co/2018/04/02/tesla-solar-roof-customer-installation-working/

Tesla Gigafactory 2 commences solar roof tiles production
https://www.techgenyz.com/2018/01/10/tesla-gigafactory-2-solar-roof-tiles-production/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 07:44:04 PM
Tesla established the first wholly-owned American car factory in China...

This is 100% false. Can you show me a picture of this factory? NO! There is APPARENTLY a PRELIMINARY agreement.


“Establish”:  verb (used with object)
to found, institute, build, or bring into being on a firm or stable basis:
to establish a university; to establish a medical practice.

Quote
Tesla has signed a “cooperative agreement” with the Shanghai Municipal Government to build its third Gigafactory and the first in China, the company announced today. Tesla says it aims to be able to make 500,000 cars per year there in what is the biggest market for electric vehicles in the world, though the company says it will be a while before the factory is up and running.

“We expect construction to begin in the near future, after we get all the necessary approvals and permits,” the company said in a statement. “From there, it will take roughly two years until we start producing vehicles and then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per year for Chinese customers.”
https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/10/17553094/tesla-china-gigafactory-cars-deal-agreement

Hope that clarifies things for you a bit.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 10, 2018, 08:53:48 PM
Will Fox and Friends be the Tesla default screen when James Murdoch is made Chairman?


James was CEO of 21st Century Fox until they sold out to Disney.
Prior to that -
He was Chairman of Sky, until they were sold to Comcast.


Is there a pattern here?
If Tesla was a good deal at $420, it's a steal at $250


I've never been much of a fan of the Murdochs.
Will the Model Y be nicknamed Vixen, wouldn't that be a bitch?
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 10, 2018, 09:12:31 PM
Tesla established the first wholly-owned American car factory in China...

This is 100% false. Can you show me a picture of this factory? NO! There is APPARENTLY a PRELIMINARY agreement.


“Establish”:  verb (used with object)
to found, institute, build, or bring into being on a firm or stable basis:
to establish a university; to establish a medical practice.

Quote
Tesla has signed a “cooperative agreement” with the Shanghai Municipal Government to build its third Gigafactory and the first in China, the company announced today. Tesla says it aims to be able to make 500,000 cars per year there in what is the biggest market for electric vehicles in the world, though the company says it will be a while before the factory is up and running.

“We expect construction to begin in the near future, after we get all the necessary approvals and permits,” the company said in a statement. “From there, it will take roughly two years until we start producing vehicles and then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per year for Chinese customers.”
https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/10/17553094/tesla-china-gigafactory-cars-deal-agreement

Hope that clarifies things for you a bit.

Any corroboration of the details of that agreement other than what Tesla has announced? That might actually clarify things a bit.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 09:50:58 PM
...
Any corroboration of the details of that agreement other than what Tesla has announced? That might actually clarify things a bit.

Our latest clues came a week ago, when Tesla announced they were “accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory.”

Tesla accelerates Shanghai factory construction due to tariffs
Quote
“To address this issue, we are accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory, which we expect to be a capital efficient and rapid buildout, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America,” it continued.
...
The company reached a deal in July with the Shanghai authorities to build a US$2bn factory in Lingang near the city’s free trade zone. Once ready, the Gigafactory 3 will have an annual production capacity of 500,000 electric vehicles a year.

The factory will be wholly owned by Tesla, instead of a 50-50 joint venture with a local company that foreign investors have previously been required to form.
https://gbtimes.com/tesla-accelerates-shanghai-factory-construction-due-to-tariffs

The cost of the Tesla plant was not immediately disclosed. The local government said it will be the largest manufacturing project in Shanghai's history funded at least partly by foreign investment.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html

From July and August:  China government help, China’s largest banks offer money, and jobs are posted:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg175240.html#msg175240
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: BeeKnees on October 10, 2018, 09:58:32 PM

Any corroboration of the details of that agreement other than what Tesla has announced? That might actually clarify things a bit.

Not sure it's going to help

https://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2018-07-11/doc-ihfefkqq2808485.shtml
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 10, 2018, 10:06:59 PM
That DID actually help. Not just american articles with Tesla as the only source.

So I take it that the first step to building a factory has been completed. Steps 2 thru 10, theoretically imminent.

And no real details other than hopes and dreams.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 10:23:27 PM
Here we go!
Just now:

Tesla is bidding on a $145 million piece of land for much-needed Gigafactory 3 in China
Quote
Bloomberg now reports that they are now closing in on a piece of land for the factory:

“The carmaker is the sole bidder for a plot of land with an auction price of about 1 billion yuan ($145 million), the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. A decision by the Shanghai government to allocate the land to Tesla could be made as soon as this month, they said.”

When first announcing the plant, Tesla said that it expects “construction to begin in the near future” and that it “will take roughly two years” until they start producing vehicles and “then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per year for Chinese customers.”
https://electrek.co/2018/10/10/tesla-gigafactory-3-land-china/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 10, 2018, 10:38:41 PM
Im bidding too!  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 10:41:42 PM
South China Morning Post:
Tesla sets up Shanghai beach head with wholly-owned plant in world’s largest electric car market |
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2154674/tesla-build-its-gigafactory-shanghai-capacity-produce-500000-cars

After Tesla deal, Shanghai to speed up cancellation of foreign ownership limits | Article [AMP] | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china/shanghai-to-speed-up-efforts-to-cancel-foreign-investment-curbs-in-auto-making-idUSKBN1K10B2
(Quotes China government sources)

vincent (@vincent13031925)
7/12/18, 12:30 PM
Many ppl don't really understand the building Ziguangge (中南海紫光阁) is very important in Chinese history. Allowing to park two @Tesla vehicles in front of Ziguangge representing the supportive from Chinese gov of the Tesla China Gigafactory & @elonmusk $TSLA twitter.com/elonmusk/statu…
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1017446051312046081

Ziguangge (中南海紫光阁) - an important place for leading comrades of the State Council to meet foreign guests. The current Ziguang Pavilion is generally the original appearance of the reign of Emperor Qianlong in the 25th year and the reign of Emperor Qianlong in the 41st year
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 10:51:59 PM
vincent (@vincent13031925) 8/11/18, 9:16 PM
Official video from China Shanghai government:
The Shanghai government will fully assist Tesla to build Gigafactory in China Shanghai Lingang and put it into production as soon as possible. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1028449995094077440

China Video: https://v.qq.com/x/page/j0754tsjcjd.html
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 11, 2018, 12:16:31 AM
Will Fox and Friends be the Tesla default screen when James Murdoch is made Chairman?


James was CEO of 21st Century Fox until they sold out to Disney.
Prior to that -
He was Chairman of Sky, until they were sold to Comcast.


Is there a pattern here?
If Tesla was a good deal at $420, it's a steal at $250


I've never been much of a fan of the Murdochs.
Will the Model Y be nicknamed Vixen, wouldn't that be a bitch?
Terry
hahahaha james murdoch.

What a totally normal great company.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 03:13:20 AM
Quote
T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) disclosed in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it bought 5.5 million more shares of Tesla (TSLA) in the third quarter, raising its holdings to 17.4 million shares, or a 10.2% stake in the electric-car maker.

At the end of the second quarter, it owned 11.9 million Tesla shares, a stake of 7.0%.
T. Rowe Price is now the second-largest Tesla shareholder, up from third place, ranking only behind CEO Elon Musk himself. Musk owns 33.7 million Tesla shares, a stake of 19.8%, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Bailey Gifford, which owns 13.2 million shares, a 7.7% stake, is now the third-largest holder.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/now-only-elon-musk-owns-more-tesla-stock-than-t-rowe-price-1539191093

Edit: replaced earlier statement with this Barron’s quote.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 03:20:51 AM
Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) 10/10/18, 1:46 PM
Just in: James Murdoch has become the lead candidate to replace Elon Musk as Tesla's chairman on.ft.com/2CEiLEQ pic.twitter.com/ezMH3QOPiK

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/10/18, 7:20 PM
@FinancialTimes This is incorrect
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1050164164805545984
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 03:35:48 AM
Quote
The war between Tesla and its enemies has reached a fever pitch lately because in the 2nd quarter 2018 earnings report and conference call, Tesla reaffirmed that enough cash will be generated through operations for the company to cover its financial obligations through internally generated funds alone, and no borrowing of funds is needed in the foreseeable future. Short sellers have been under the opinion that Tesla will run out of cash in March of 2019 when a large obligation comes due. Tesla’s 3rd quarter production and delivery report showed a beat in both metrics, strongly suggesting that Tesla is on track to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in positive cash flow in Q3 and, together with Q4, alleviate cash concerns for early 2019. Thus, the most astute shorts need to extricate themselves from their TSLA short positions prior to the early November Q3 earnings report, placing a short timeframe on maneuvering the value of Tesla’s stock further downward and covering their exits before that report is released. ...

A Field Guide To Potential Securities Violations By Tesla's Foes — In Depth | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/10/a-field-guide-to-potential-securities-violations-by-teslas-foes-in-depth/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 11, 2018, 08:55:40 AM
So it was a bad day on Wall Street today.

S&P 500 down 3.3 %.

If investors were jittery about Tesla, we would expect Tesla to take a big plunge.
But they did not.
Tesla went down only 2.25 %.

Investors mostly dumped companies like overpriced Amazon, which went down more than 6 % and even Apple went down 4.6 %.

This tells me investors are still more confident about Tesla than about the rest of the market, no matter the rhetoric from Tesla doom sayers.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 11, 2018, 01:24:38 PM
So it was a bad day on Wall Street today.

S&P 500 down 3.3 %.

If investors were jittery about Tesla, we would expect Tesla to take a big plunge.
But they did not.
Tesla went down only 2.25 %.

Investors mostly dumped companies like overpriced Amazon, which went down more than 6 % and even Apple went down 4.6 %.

This tells me investors are still more confident about Tesla than about the rest of the market, no matter the rhetoric from Tesla doom sayers.

that's jumping to false conclusions of course, tesla shares were on sale just a bit longer, hence the potential for further sales was smaller.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 01:54:38 PM
So it was a bad day on Wall Street today.

S&P 500 down 3.3 %.

If investors were jittery about Tesla, we would expect Tesla to take a big plunge.
But they did not.
Tesla went down only 2.25 %.

Investors mostly dumped companies like overpriced Amazon, which went down more than 6 % and even Apple went down 4.6 %.

This tells me investors are still more confident about Tesla than about the rest of the market, no matter the rhetoric from Tesla doom sayers.

that's jumping to false conclusions of course, tesla shares were on sale just a bit longer, hence the potential for further sales was smaller.

But the Tesla bears insist Tesla stock is headed for $0!  ;)  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 11, 2018, 02:09:27 PM
But the Tesla bears insist Tesla stock is headed for $0!  ;)  ;D

some do but i believe more in a significant change, buy-out, division, management change etc.

the brand is much too valuable that no-one will be interested to take over while the stage when such a thing will/can happen is in the open.

filing for C11 won't make a company disappear or production discontinue as we know, GM is greeting and is in good company ;)

those who talk about black and white, all or nothing scenarios, no matter which side they're on are all wrong IMO, the truth will lay in the middle and the products are mostly good and/or with huge potential for a significant market share, hence why should the industry let it die.

i believe that if musk would retire entirely and be happy with his stake things would turn around very quickly. he is the kind of man who the worlds need to build something from scratch but
the same attitude and style that makes inventors and many founders successful is often responsible for the downfall of their babies if they miss the right time to step down

that's my entire point and it includes my full respect for all the dedication and a bit of craziness it takes to get things up and running up to this point.

to use an example totally from another field, look at the fate of winston churchill, unbearable in peace times, desperately needed in war times.

the list could be extended almost infinitely, each thing, each man, each skill etc has it's times and it's limits, not even "black holes" are eternal ;) now it remains to be found out whether dark energy/matter is ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 03:20:44 PM
Quote
...
that's my entire point and it includes my full respect for all the dedication and a bit of craziness it takes to get things up and running up to this point.

And that is my point, as well.  “Doing things the way they have always been done” usually meant taking around seven years to design a car and bring it to market.  Tesla not only re-designed an entirely different method of — cleaner — transportation, but brought it to market fast.  That requires throwing away old paradigms, and “thinking outside the box” every day.  Many of their wild ideas will go on to become big parts of the company’s success; others (I’m thinking of the Flufferbot ;) ) are a learning experience that will lead to new realizations and new directions. 

Everyone who says, “Why aren’t we moving faster to address climate change?” should super appreciate Tesla and Musk’s gutsy, risky approach to doing things differently.  The company made a huge bet in a game people told them they Could Not Win.  And they have succeeded.  Their plans for the future are as equally gutsy, although less risky now that they are turning profitable and have, you know, upended an entire industry and startled people to learn that an alternative to ICE cars exists and that actual customers swear by it. 

If Tesla hadn’t broken the mold, we would still be deep in the ICE age.  And no person is responsible for that more than Elon Musk.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 05:28:03 PM
Is the recent doubling of the Gigafactory 1 jobs target to 20,000... related to the big Saudi announcement promised for Oct 18?  Consider this timeline, and the recent purchases of Tesla stock by the Saudi fund and T Rowe Price:

Quote
Starlight Energies (@Starlight_Energ) 10/10/18, 9:44 PM

not noise:
8-7 Saudi 2.5%+ Tesla (T) and Elon tweet
8-23 Saudi Aramco $200B IPO delayed
9-30 Saudi $200B solar delayed
10-5 Riyadh Oct 23. Prince Saud: "Big investments, far from oil"
10-5 Saudi ~5% T
10-10 TRowePrice ~10% T
10-10 Elon GF-1 employ target now 20K was 10K curr 7K
https://twitter.com/starlight_energ/status/1050200396952522752


Tesla aims to have 20,000 employees at Gigafactory 1, could invest in local housing, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/10/10/tesla-gigafactory-1-employees-housing-elon-musk/

Edit: Saudi post:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg175851.html#msg175851
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 11, 2018, 05:52:13 PM
Everyone who says, “Why aren’t we moving faster to address climate change?” should super appreciate Tesla and Musk’s gutsy, risky approach to doing things differently.

NO. Just no. If 100% adoption of Tesla's grand plan would move the world to a substantially better trajectory, then sure. But no.

Even if Tesla/EV could 100% take over the transportation industry in the next 2 decades (which i doubt), and even if that led to a 80% reduction in craddle to grave transport related emissions (which i doubt), that would only lead to a 11% reduction in global emissions.

The problem so so so much more systemic. Tesla's plan is simple to further ingrain a Western luxury lifestyle into our global society. Not only do we need more than a 11% reduction, we actually need to go carbon negative and develop local systems more resilient to climate chaos. Tesla is totally about trying to have our cake and eat it too. Continued consumerism is not the answer. Localism with global information connectivity is the answer. Tesla is part of the problem. And it is even more a part of the problem because it confuses the well-intentioned yet simple-minded into giving their money and energy to a false prophet, a megalomaniac, and likely a fELON.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 11, 2018, 06:38:20 PM
As Elon Musk's character constantly gets dragged into evaluations of Tesla, here's a recent article on the subject that I found rather balanced.

Quote
Musk is a one in ten million-type person. There are only a few people capable of not only willing one game-changing company into existence, but at least two and maybe more, depending on how you count. The ability to build a Tesla or a SpaceX requires a mindset that no one can stop you. The concept of “no” can’t exist in Musk’s world, nor can the presumed authority of someone to tell him no.
...
If “Excessive Elon” didn’t attack those standing in his way, he wouldn’t be Elon Musk. If his superpower was turned down even a bit, he might not have been capable of willing Tesla and SpaceX to life. That doesn’t justify his recent behavior, but attempts to understand it.
...
Excessive Elon hurts Tesla most with team-building. One criterion we use for assessing private companies is whether or not we’d want to work for the founder. A year ago, we would have answered affirmatively here without much thought. Now, we’re not as sure, and it doesn’t seem like we’re the only ones. The list of high-level departures at Tesla is significant, and we believe well-qualified candidates for the critical COO role may be hesitant to work with Musk. The same can likely be said for adding more qualified board members. The volatility in talent is far more concerning to us for the long-term prospects of Tesla than the short-term moves in stock price.

https://247wallst.com/investing/2018/10/11/elon-musk-when-strengths-in-excess-become-liabilities (https://247wallst.com/investing/2018/10/11/elon-musk-when-strengths-in-excess-become-liabilities)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 11, 2018, 07:10:51 PM
"Divide and conquer"

I don't know of a better problem solving strategy.  Here we have a solution (renewables/batteries) that could potentially take care of most of the energy component of the climate change problem. People are arguing that because it is only a partial solution we shouldn't try to implement it.

20% of the problem is transportation, but Tesla Energy division exists and it just got a free new gigafactory as a byproduct of Model 3 production.Tesla may help solve a much bigger chunk of the climate change problem than transportation. This is where most people maligning the solar city deal are wrong.

 What we need is more Teslas and Elon Musks in the fields of agriculture, reusability, reclying and all other limits of growth that our civilization faces. They are needed as much as a solution to fossil fuel emissions.

It can be done. It can even be glorious for mankind if we really try.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 07:45:56 PM
As Elon Musk's character constantly gets dragged into evaluations of Tesla, here's a recent article on the subject that I found rather balanced.

Quote
Musk is a one in ten million-type person. There are only a few people capable of not only willing one game-changing company into existence, but at least two and maybe more, depending on how you count. The ability to build a Tesla or a SpaceX requires a mindset that no one can stop you. The concept of “no” can’t exist in Musk’s world, nor can the presumed authority of someone to tell him no.
...
If “Excessive Elon” didn’t attack those standing in his way, he wouldn’t be Elon Musk. If his superpower was turned down even a bit, he might not have been capable of willing Tesla and SpaceX to life. That doesn’t justify his recent behavior, but attempts to understand it.
...
Excessive Elon hurts Tesla most with team-building. One criterion we use for assessing private companies is whether or not we’d want to work for the founder. A year ago, we would have answered affirmatively here without much thought. Now, we’re not as sure, and it doesn’t seem like we’re the only ones. The list of high-level departures at Tesla is significant, and we believe well-qualified candidates for the critical COO role may be hesitant to work with Musk. The same can likely be said for adding more qualified board members. The volatility in talent is far more concerning to us for the long-term prospects of Tesla than the short-term moves in stock price.

https://247wallst.com/investing/2018/10/11/elon-musk-when-strengths-in-excess-become-liabilities (https://247wallst.com/investing/2018/10/11/elon-musk-when-strengths-in-excess-become-liabilities)

The 24/7 Wall Street folks may not want to work for Elon, but hundreds of thousands of tech workers do. :) 
Different work ethic between finance and saving the world, I guess.

Quote
Recruiting Talent
If you were fresh out of school and wanted a job at a car company, would you rather work at one of the legacy car companies or at Tesla? Tesla is an innovative Silicon Valley company that makes sexy fast cars. If you want to work in battery tech, AI, automation, or many other fields, Tesla is the place that is treading new ground.

In March of 2018, Tesla was on LinkedIn’s list of top companies that American professionals want to work for, placing 5th and outranking Apple and Disney. Tesla is listed along with tech companies, not automakers. They are (and they are perceived as) a tech company that makes cars, rather than just a car company.

Over 500,000 people applied for jobs at Tesla in 2017. With this many candidates, Tesla is able to hire the cream of the crop. To do things that have never been done before, you have to hire highly skilled people.
* Moat: Desirable employer.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/27/teslas-moats-tesla-can-do-what-other-car-companies-only-dream-about-and-why/

——-
Tesla was ranked third, ahead of Apple and Amazon:
Hired Releases 2018 Global Brand Health Report - Company News
Quote
To bring clarity to what matters most to job seekers, we asked tech workers which companies they’re most interested in working for, what attracts them to an appealing employer, and what drives them to accept or reject a job offer. Our second annual Brand Health Report recognizes companies who have been named a top employer brand by tech talent and provides insights that help companies improve their talent acquisition strategies to better attract and retain top talent.

Top Global Employer Brands
To gain a deeper understanding of what job seekers value in an employer, we asked our marketplace of tech talent to rank the companies they’d most like to work for. This year respondents named Netflix as the most appealing place to work with a Brand Positivity Index of 86, moving up the ranks from fifth place last year. Directly behind the media streaming giant is Google, Tesla, and SpaceX.
https://hired.com/blog/highlights/hired-releases-2018-global-brand-health-report/

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 08:05:57 PM
Everyone who says, “Why aren’t we moving faster to address climate change?” should super appreciate Tesla and Musk’s gutsy, risky approach to doing things differently.

NO. Just no. If 100% adoption of Tesla's grand plan would move the world to a substantially better trajectory, then sure. But no.

Even if Tesla/EV could 100% take over the transportation industry in the next 2 decades (which i doubt), and even if that led to a 80% reduction in craddle to grave transport related emissions (which i doubt), that would only lead to a 11% reduction in global emissions.
...

It’s a start!  So, we simply need nine more Elons! ;D

No single answer will get us off fossil fuels.  Duh!  We need many different solutions.
But can you name anyone else who has done more than Elon Musk and his companies to reduce carbon emissions, and move the rest of an industry toward reducing carbon emissions? 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 11, 2018, 09:14:19 PM
Everyone who says, “Why aren’t we moving faster to address climate change?” should super appreciate Tesla and Musk’s gutsy, risky approach to doing things differently.

NO. Just no. If 100% adoption of Tesla's grand plan would move the world to a substantially better trajectory, then sure. But no.

Even if Tesla/EV could 100% take over the transportation industry in the next 2 decades (which i doubt), and even if that led to a 80% reduction in craddle to grave transport related emissions (which i doubt), that would only lead to a 11% reduction in global emissions.
...

It’s a start! So, we simply need nine more Elons! ;D

No single answer will get us off fossil fuels.  Duh!  We need many different solutions.
But can you name anyone else who has done more than Elon Musk and his companies to reduce carbon emissions, and move the rest of an industry toward reducing carbon emissions?

NOOOOOO. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! How do you fail to understand that it is not a start but rather an entrenching of the problem?? Musk has done NOTHING to reduce carbon emissions. Personally he has one of the highest carbon footprints of anyone in the world. His rocket company is the furtherest thing from reducing emissions possible. The tunnel thing is a gimmick. The hyperloop thing is a gimmick. The solar company was a fraud, which Musk saddled Tesla with to keep it from going bankrupt. And the car company, Tesla, has spent more money and energy per car than any other car company in history except for maybe a handful of exotic manufacturers. You hoping it will all lead to some better outcome in the future, doesn't mean shit. So far Musk has been one of the worst humans for emission in history. And if you factor in how much "green" money and activism he has consumed, he is far and away the worst. (Maybe his twin-twitter-tard comes close).
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 11, 2018, 11:03:02 PM
Tesla needs a little over $115M per month over the next 13 months to pay off it's outstanding debt.

They shut down the once lauded SolarCity operations in Utah in an apparent attempt at saving money, but how that plays into an evaluation of Tesla's now wholly owned, but hemorrhaging SolarCity subsidiary can only be guessed at.

Back in the 3Q of 2015 SolarCity expected to have 4k employees working out of their $15M facilities in Utah, and the State promised tax breaks of $24.44M, with bonuses if the workforce swelled to 4,500.
https://edcutah.org/recent-wins/solar-city

Alas, this didn't happen, and the former employees will have to move, then re-apply with Tesla if they wan't to retain any connections with their former employer.

Some of the debt that needs to be cleared up over the next 13 months originated with SolarCity, and at the time of the buyout Musk apparently owned (slightly) more of SolarCity than he did of Tesla. In bailing out SolarCity Musk was to some extent bailing himself out using Tesla's stock. As I understand it more than one lawyer has become involved.

I don't think Tesla needs to show that they made a profit in the 3d quarter. I think they need to show large profits every quarter for the next year+.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 12:57:18 AM
They shut down the once lauded SolarCity operations in Utah in an apparent attempt at saving money, but how that plays into an evaluation of Tesla's now wholly owned, but hemorrhaging SolarCity subsidiary can only be guessed at.[/size]

This is where most people maligning the solar city deal are wrong.

Archimid, <snip; N.> 90% of the things you say fly directly in the face of the preponderance of the evidence. Come to grip with the fact that your desires do not material manifest into reality.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 12, 2018, 04:11:00 AM
After a investigation dating back to 2015, Tesla pays the State of Oregon $13M (without admitting guilt) in a probe that resulted in charges of bribery and tax evasion.

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2018/10/following-years-long-investigation-tesla-coughs-up-13-million-in-oregon-settlement/


Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 05:09:30 AM
It is possible Tesla is shuttering all Solar City related operations as they are continuing to bleed cash that is not available.

Salt Lake City center personnel have been let go.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 12, 2018, 06:12:14 AM
Everyone who says, “Why aren’t we moving faster to address climate change?” should super appreciate Tesla and Musk’s gutsy, risky approach to doing things differently.

NO. Just no. If 100% adoption of Tesla's grand plan would move the world to a substantially better trajectory, then sure. But no.

Even if Tesla/EV could 100% take over the transportation industry in the next 2 decades (which i doubt), and even if that led to a 80% reduction in craddle to grave transport related emissions (which i doubt), that would only lead to a 11% reduction in global emissions.
...

It’s a start! So, we simply need nine more Elons! ;D

No single answer will get us off fossil fuels.  Duh!  We need many different solutions.
But can you name anyone else who has done more than Elon Musk and his companies to reduce carbon emissions, and move the rest of an industry toward reducing carbon emissions?

NOOOOOO. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! How do you fail to understand that it is not a start but rather an entrenching of the problem?? Musk has done NOTHING to reduce carbon emissions.

Two questions and one comment about that.

First of all, a question : that 11 % number. How did you calculate that ?
A real quick check here :
https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fast-facts-transportation-greenhouse-gas-emissions
states that the the transportation sector at least in the US constitutes some 28% of GHG emissions.
80% of that is 22% reduction is GHG emissions, double what you quote.

Second, a comment : Tesla is not just addressing transportation. They also include Solar and (grid) storage to address the electricity market. Both of which are ALSO great growth markets.
Maybe that's why investors love Tesla, and cut them some slack while they are massively upscaling.

In terms of GHG emission reduction, the grid electricity market is another 28% of US emissions and with your ballpark 80% reduction, that means overall Tesla is in the market that can reduce emissions by 22+22=44% thank you very much.

Finally, a question : If not by moving to electric transportation, and greening the grid with renewables, and battery storage for the intermittency, ALL of which are sectors where Tesla is moving mountains, HOW exactly do YOU envision that we kick our fossil fuel addiction ?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 12, 2018, 07:05:42 AM
25,913% Growth In Tesla Sales In 6 Years

https://techchecknews.com/2018/10/25913-growth-in-tesla-sales-in-6-years/

(https://i2.wp.com/techchecknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Tesla-quarterly-production-growth.png?resize=820%2C910&ssl=1)

Once again, I don't understand much about stock prices, but with this kind of growth, there is no way this company is going to go bust any time soon.

Who cares about 8% interest to get capital you need to expand if your sales are more than tripling in a year ?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 12, 2018, 12:13:01 PM
Once again, I don't understand much about stock prices, but with this kind of growth, there is no way this company is going to go bust any time soon.

Alex, Can I get "Things said before every financial collapse." for $500


Also, this is pretty hilarious.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpQ3JoZU4AALELO.jpg)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 06:17:44 PM
Once again, I don't understand much about stock prices, but with this kind of growth, there is no way this company is going to go bust any time soon.

Who cares about 8% interest to get capital you need to expand if your sales are more than tripling in a year ?

If I was started a business, and we sold dollar bills for 8 dimes, how rapidly do you think I could grow my revenue?  How long do you think my business would stay solvent after I stopped receiving outside funding?

Every business Musk has ever run fits in the "selling dollars for 8 dimes" paradigm. He has never ran a business which turned an annual profit...16 years at SpaceX, 14 years at Tesla, 10 years at Solar City, 2 years at Neuralink, 2 years at the Boring Company...44 out of 44 annual loses.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 06:47:07 PM
Everyone who says, “Why aren’t we moving faster to address climate change?” should super appreciate Tesla and Musk’s gutsy, risky approach to doing things differently.

NO. Just no. If 100% adoption of Tesla's grand plan would move the world to a substantially better trajectory, then sure. But no.

Even if Tesla/EV could 100% take over the transportation industry in the next 2 decades (which i doubt), and even if that led to a 80% reduction in craddle to grave transport related emissions (which i doubt), that would only lead to a 11% reduction in global emissions.
...

It’s a start! So, we simply need nine more Elons! ;D

No single answer will get us off fossil fuels.  Duh!  We need many different solutions.
But can you name anyone else who has done more than Elon Musk and his companies to reduce carbon emissions, and move the rest of an industry toward reducing carbon emissions?

NOOOOOO. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! How do you fail to understand that it is not a start but rather an entrenching of the problem?? Musk has done NOTHING to reduce carbon emissions.

Two questions and one comment about that.

First of all, a question : that 11 % number. How did you calculate that ?
A real quick check here :
https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fast-facts-transportation-greenhouse-gas-emissions
states that the the transportation sector at least in the US constitutes some 28% of GHG emissions.
80% of that is 22% reduction is GHG emissions, double what you quote.

Second, a comment : Tesla is not just addressing transportation. They also include Solar and (grid) storage to address the electricity market. Both of which are ALSO great growth markets.
Maybe that's why investors love Tesla, and cut them some slack while they are massively upscaling.

In terms of GHG emission reduction, the grid electricity market is another 28% of US emissions and with your ballpark 80% reduction, that means overall Tesla is in the market that can reduce emissions by 22+22=44% thank you very much.

Finally, a question : If not by moving to electric transportation, and greening the grid with renewables, and battery storage for the intermittency, ALL of which are sectors where Tesla is moving mountains, HOW exactly do YOU envision that we kick our fossil fuel addiction ?

Global emissions come from the whole world. Calculating using figures just from the United States will get you misleading results. Try again with GLOBAL emissions data and you will see my number is correct.

Second, Tesla's solar and power storage divisions are small and shrinking.

Finally...."44% reduction in global emissions thanks to Tesla"....you are stupendously ill-informed.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 08:05:02 PM
Musk just visited the White House. I imagine it is was a last ditch effort to save Tesla from bankruptcy. Maybe it worked, but I doubt it.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 12, 2018, 09:00:02 PM
I'd been googling about trying to learn something about Musk's purchase of SolarCity when I stumbled on a Consumers Affairs site for SolarCity/Tesla

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/solar-energy/solarcity.html

Just reading the most recent entries was eye opening. Talk of class action suits & requests for various State Consumer Protection units to step in, and heartbreaking first hand accounts by elderly folk that say they've been ripped off.

If you still think Musk is on the up & up, read a page or two of these messages from his customers.

Oh, and find a local solar contractor, one who will appreciate your business and who relies on good word of mouth to stay in business.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 09:06:53 PM
Ya, something like 90% of their reviews on Yelp at 1 star...hahahaha.  Other solar companies average 3.5-5 stars. Everything Musk touches is a fraud. So many people will look back and think, "damn, I can't believe I was such a gullible fool!" Typically this sort of insane blind man worship is isolated, but this is the largest cult in history.  The collapse of the facade will be EPIC.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 09:14:53 PM
Apparently having failed to find a savior in the white house, musk turns to twitter to garner sympathy from the public.

@elonmusk, "Tesla exists to help reduce risk of catastrophic climate change, which affects all species on Earth. Even if your faith in humanity is faltering, this is worth caring about. Support makes a difference. Thank you."

fELON is an obvious ucking fraud. "Bail me out, or all species on earth will die!"  Why didn't Madoff think of that?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 12, 2018, 09:49:58 PM
Is anyone aware of the Silevo - SolarCity - Tesla agreements, and how they impact the "Research Foundation for the State University of New York" and their $750M investment in "construction and equipment"?
Back in 2015 or 2017 Musk noted an obligation to pay a "project payment" of $41.2M in "such year"?
Has Tesla been making these payments to New York?
In how many years, and at what interest rate, will this obligation be settled?
Is this how GF2 was funded?

As I understand it Tesla bought Silevo through SolarCity with the understanding that Silevo's technology would be developed here. Then he turned the factory over to Panasonic who preferred their own technology, leaving Musk on the hook to repay the State of New York.

Am I going in the right direction?

https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/silevo-technology-ditched-as-teslas-buffalo-fab-run-by-panasonic

Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2018, 12:15:29 AM
"Tesla exists to help reduce risk of catastrophic climate change, which affects all species on Earth. Even if your faith in humanity is faltering, this is worth caring about. Support makes a difference. Thank you."

The evidence shows it is true Tesla exists to help reduce risk of catastrophic climate change. It's more than words. It's actual results. Tesla is opening a real actual path to reduce transport and energy related emissions. Tesla is pushing the rest of the automakers in the direction of EVs. Battery  ancillary services, back up batteries home batteries are an actual thing that people can buy.

So who should I believe the person who is telling me he wants to fix the climate and is doing something significant about it or the person who wants to stop climate change action?

Nah.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 12:55:55 AM
Musk owns five homes and a private jet. $72 million in personal real estate.  That's a man who's committed to combating climate change.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2018, 01:07:45 AM
Accepting the reality of climate change makes a hypocrite out of everyone, except hermits.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 01:19:04 AM
I'm honestly curious where we draw the line for people like musk?

I can't help to think that there's thousands of sociopath capitalists salivating to become the next Musk.  Just convince some suckers you're saving the world, and you can get away with anything. The cult of climate change heroes.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 13, 2018, 01:32:40 AM
Solar City - White Elephant or potential money machine?

I came across these two articles recently

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209357-teslas-undervalued-asset
Tesla's Most Undervalued Asset
Quote
Summary
- The solar market is growing steadily and SolarCity can take advantage of it with the Solar Roof.
- The Solar Roof is unique as no other company has been able to make a solar shingle that looks like a regular house shingle.
- Gigafactory 2 is critical in bringing SolarCity to a profitable state.

One reason for this increase is a bill in California requires all homes built after 2020 to be built with solar panels on the roof in order to power the entire home.The Solar Roof should strive under these conditions because there will be no need to build a roof and solar panels, the Solar Roof is both in one. It acts as a regular roof while generating electricity and people will need both of those things when building a new home.

The solar industry has heavy competition, and there isn’t much to differentiate each solar provider. That’s where Tesla’s Solar Roof comes into play. No other company has a product that is close to what Tesla has achieved with its shingles. A few other companies such as RGS Energy, CertainTeed, and Aesthetic Green Power have all developed solar shingles, but none of them are designed to look like normal shingles like the Solar Roof is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/business/energy-environment/california-solar-power.html
California Will Require Solar Power for New Homes
Quote
California took a giant step on Wednesday, becoming the first state to require all new homes to have solar power.

The new requirement, to take effect in two years, brings solar power into the mainstream in a way it has never been until now.

State officials and clean-energy advocates say the extra cost to home buyers will be more than made up in lower energy bills. That prospect has won over even the construction industry, which has embraced solar capability as a selling point.

California averages about 80,000 new homes a year, with about 15,000 currently including solar installations. Over all, at the current rate of home building, the new requirement will increase the annual number of rooftop solar installations by 44 percent.

It reminded me of Amazon's early years when it sucked in vast quantities of cash and produced very little revenue. What saved Amazon was Broadband that made online shopping doable.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 01:52:40 AM
Accepting the reality of climate change makes a hypocrite out of everyone, except hermits.

Nope.

Do you even know what a hypocrite is? cuz it doesn't seem like it
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 02:16:55 AM
“It's taken just eight years for Elon Musk's electric-vehicle startup to overtake Mercedes-Benz, the company that invented the concept of the car 132 years ago.”

Tesla just outsold Mercedes-Benz in the US for the first time
Quote
   •   In the third quarter this year, Tesla sold 69,925 vehicles in the US, while Mercedes-Benz sold 66,542.
   •   Tesla was also a mere 1,754 vehicles from toppling another rival, BMW.
In a note to its clients, Atherton said it expected Tesla to surpass BMW in US sales in the last quarter of 2018.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-just-outsold-mercedes-benz-in-the-us-for-the-first-time-2018-10


Tesla starts fourth quarter strong with production of over 11,500 vehicles, including >7,000 Model 3s
Oct. 12th 2018
Quote
It looks like the days of unsustainable production bursts are over for Tesla, as the automaker is starting the fourth quarter strong with production of over 11,500 vehicles, including more than 7,000 Model 3s.

Last quarter, we closely tracked Tesla’s production on what turned out to be the company’s biggest quarter ever with just over 80,000 vehicles produced, including over 53,000 Model 3s.  As usual, Tesla finished the quarter strong, but the last week was especially strong with 5,300 Model 3s — a new record for the automaker.

Everyone was asking if Tesla was able to maintain the high production rate after the end of the quarter, and it looks like the answer is mostly yes. A reliable source familiar with Tesla’s production told Electrek that the automaker produced about 11,500 cars (Model S, Model X, and Model 3), including about 7,400 Model 3s, so far this quarter as of earlier today.  It means that Tesla managed to maintain a Model 3 production approaching 5,000 units per week despite an anticipated early quarter slowdown. …
https://electrek.co/2018/10/12/tesla-model-3-production-strong-quarter/


”Model 3 production now appears to be cruising—from the first cars off the line in July 2017, it took about 14 months for the company to build the initial 100,000 Model 3s. At the current rate of production, it will build the second 100,000 in less than six months.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-12/tesla-s-model-3-passes-the-100-000-mark
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 02:28:02 AM
giggles. y'all would have been babbling profusely about the unsinkableness of the titanic while your bodies started to shut down from the chilly north atlantic. there is no way tesla built as many cars as you are claiming. its just some nonsense musk told fred to write.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 02:33:33 AM
Tesla continues Gigafactory 3 preparations with new hiring initiative, $145M real estate bid
 October 12, 2018
Quote
Tesla’s preparations for Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China are underway, with the company recently listing a number of new job postings for the upcoming facility. The new Shanghai Gigafactory 3 job openings come amidst reports that Tesla is also in the process of acquiring a site where the battery and electric car facility would be constructed on.

Tesla has posted job openings for the Shanghai Gigafactory in the past. That said, the electric car maker posted a new set of job listings for the upcoming facility on October 11, including positions for Senior Managers for Construction, Mechanical Design Engineers for Building Infrastructure, and Electrical Design Engineers. These postings were listed on Tesla’s Careers page on its website, as well as the company’s official WeChat account. Overall, the updated Gigafactory 3 job listings invoke the idea that Tesla is assembling the team it needs to break ground and start the construction of the facility.

Quote
From the official recruitment advertisement of Tesla, the Shanghai Gigafactory has entered the stage of preparation for construction. Thanks @congcongcui1 for the info $TSLA #TeslaChina
— vincent (@vincent13031925) October 12, 2018

It should be noted that while Tesla’s targets for Gigafactory 3 are incredibly aggressive, the company’s timeline is not that farfetched. Gigafactory 3, after all, does not need to be fully completed before it begins vehicle production. This is exhibited by Gigafactory 1, which is less than 30% complete but is already operating and supporting the battery needs of the Model 3 production ramp. Gigafactory 3 is also being built in China, a country with a construction workforce that has earned Elon Musk’s approval for its near-surgical efficiency and quickness.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-preparations-hiring-initiative-145-million-real-estate-bid/

Quote
Tesla China update: Sept 26, Shanghai Municipal Planning & Land Resources Ad issued a land transfer announcement for the Q01-05 plot of the 04PD-0303 unit of Lingang Heavy Equipment Industrial Zone 860K sq meters. Approved type of industry is EV manufacturing $TSLA #TeslaChina
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1050814966347907072
(Text image, in Chinese, at the link ;) )

Quote
it turns out there is no permitting process in China. Tesla could build a factory in 60 days and be open for business January 1.
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1050799584354553856
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 03:10:57 AM
Tesla patents new type of cable easier to manipulate by robots in move to automate production
https://electrek.co/2018/10/12/tesla-patents-structural-cable-easier-robots-automate-production/

—-
Quote
Elon Musk has deployed nearly half a million cars that don’t have autopilot activated, but the car is hardware-ready with the software installed. Each car has a credit card on file. He has a license to print money. He can raise $250 million of pure profit with a simple campaign.
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1050756625345142784

Quote
Wifey: Can you come pick me up from the conference I’m at?
Me: Sure babe.
Wifey: I’ll drop a pin and send it to the car.
Me: Ok, I’ll go where the car takes me.

(This is where we are now). #V9
https://twitter.com/villapeter100/status/1050811695222931464
—-

Quote
In North Paint we have a bunch of car hoods hanging up with employee signatures that are there to mark important milestones. There’s an M3 hood hanging up that says “100 shipped in one day” and it’s crazy to think that a year ago, 100 cars a day was a big milestone. #tesla
https://twitter.com/galaktixtv/status/1048109961220218881
    —-
Kato Road has been taken over by delivery trucks. ;D ;D #Tesla
https://twitter.com/galaktixtv/status/1048360354508505088
[At the link:  1min+ vid driving past dozens of empty car carriers parked at the sides of the road near hotels where truckers take their prescribed rest.]
- Also, assuming there are 30 trucks and each hold 8 cars, that’s only 240 cars. We build over 700 a day.

—-
Tesla Bears Arguments Chart, revised, shown below, is from:
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1048728104536031234
 ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 05:33:30 AM
Tesla is basically a penny stock currently masquerading as a 50 billion dollar company. The company consistently burns cash, saddles itself with debt to help bail out executives, cant retain senior employees, has an unhinged leader, and best of all TESLA'S GENERAL COUNSEL IS MUSK'S DIVORCE LAWYER!

Anyone who thinks Tesla is legit, exposes themselves as totally clueless.

TESLAQUILA for sure!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 13, 2018, 06:07:46 AM
Once again, I don't understand much about stock prices, but with this kind of growth, there is no way this company is going to go bust any time soon.

Who cares about 8% interest to get capital you need to expand if your sales are more than tripling in a year ?

If I was started a business, and we sold dollar bills for 8 dimes, how rapidly do you think I could grow my revenue?  How long do you think my business would stay solvent after I stopped receiving outside funding?

Every business Musk has ever run fits in the "selling dollars for 8 dimes" paradigm.

You suggest that Tesla runs a 20% loss on every vehicle sold.

But that is BS.

Estimates of Tesla's gross PROFIT margin varies from something like 15% by these guys :
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin
to something like 30 % by Munro & Associates :
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/273804-model-3-has-highest-profit-margin-of-any-electric-vehicle

And you know what happens if you triple sales with a 15% profit margin ?
Yes, you got it, you make 45% over every dollar you invested.

So who cares if you need to pay 8% to get money to grow your business 45%.

So sorry to bust your bubble, but there is no way Tesla is going to go bust any time soon.

(https://i2.wp.com/techchecknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Tesla-quarterly-production-growth.png?resize=820%2C910&ssl=1)

Sales rule, dude.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 06:13:03 AM
Once again, I don't understand much about stock prices, but with this kind of growth, there is no way this company is going to go bust any time soon.

Who cares about 8% interest to get capital you need to expand if your sales are more than tripling in a year ?

If I was started a business, and we sold dollar bills for 8 dimes, how rapidly do you think I could grow my revenue?  How long do you think my business would stay solvent after I stopped receiving outside funding?

Every business Musk has ever run fits in the "selling dollars for 8 dimes" paradigm.

You suggest that Tesla runs a 20% loss on every vehicle sold.

But that is BS.

Gross PROFIT margin is something like 15% :
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin

And you know what happens if you triple sales with a 15% profit margin ?
Yes, you got it, you make 45% over every dollar you invested.

So who cares if you need to pay 8% to get money.

So there is no way Tesla is going to go bust any time soon.

Sales rule, dude.

Hey dude, that was a metaphor. I'm simply suggesting that Tesla always has and always will operate at a loss. They can shift things around to make a single quarter slightly profitable, but so what.

Nobody knows what Tesla's true gross margin is ...but it is almost certainly not enough to cover other costs.

Free Cash Flow actually rules.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 13, 2018, 06:22:14 AM
Tesla is basically a penny stock currently masquerading as a 50 billion dollar company. The company consistently burns cash, saddles itself with debt to help bail out executives, cant retain senior employees, has an unhinged leader, and best of all TESLA'S GENERAL COUNSEL IS MUSK'S DIVORCE LAWYER!

Anyone who thinks Tesla is legit, exposes themselves as totally clueless.

TESLAQUILA for sure!

Geez. What did Tesla every do wrong to you ?
Are you a short-seller ?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 06:23:45 AM

So sorry to bust your bubble, but there is no way Tesla is going to go bust any time soon.


You should notify the exponentially increasing number of fleeing executives. I'm sure you know more than them.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/doe1755m6gyztnc/Tesla%20Executive%20Departures%20List.pdf?dl=0
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 06:25:56 AM
Tesla is basically a penny stock currently masquerading as a 50 billion dollar company. The company consistently burns cash, saddles itself with debt to help bail out executives, cant retain senior employees, has an unhinged leader, and best of all TESLA'S GENERAL COUNSEL IS MUSK'S DIVORCE LAWYER!

Anyone who thinks Tesla is legit, exposes themselves as totally clueless.

TESLAQUILA for sure!

Geez. What did Tesla every do wrong to you ?
Are you a short-seller ?

Lie. Cheat. Lie. Lie. Distract well meaning climate activist simpletons with a solution that doesn't really help. Lie.

Yes, I own low strike price put options dated from next week thru jan 2020.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 06:29:34 AM
As the old saying goes, "We lose money on every sale, but we make it up on volume."
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 13, 2018, 06:35:28 AM
Geez. What did Tesla every do wrong to you ?
Are you a short-seller ?
Yes, I own low strike price put options dated from next week thru jan 2020.

Ah. That explains it.

Means we still need to endure you pissing on Tesla on this fine forum for another year and 3 months ?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 06:53:15 AM
Geez. What did Tesla every do wrong to you ?
Are you a short-seller ?
Yes, I own low strike price put options dated from next week thru jan 2020.

Ah. That explains it.

Means we still need to endure you pissing on Tesla on this fine forum for another year and 3 months ?

I highly doubt it will last that long.

I'm not anti-Tesla cuz I'm short...I'm short cuz Tesla is fundamentally unprofitable, textbook over-valued, and likely highly fraudulent.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: silkman on October 13, 2018, 08:57:44 AM

Lie. Cheat. Lie. Lie. Distract well meaning climate activist simpletons with a solution that doesn't really help....

That's just unacceptably insulting!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 13, 2018, 10:44:30 AM
As the old saying goes, "We lose money on every sale, but we make it up on volume."

You do realise that the Q1-Q2 loss reports do not make your case?  My expectation is that when we look at that chart again after the Q3 results, it will make your case even less.

There was a MASSIVE bump in production between Q1 and Q2, yet a very MODERATE increase in the loss.  That means the additional vehicles manufactured were profitable.  Even worse, there were 11,000 odd vehicles in which the manufacturing was incorporated in the loss but the sales were not completed.

I told you before you were cherry picking on the charts you submit then drawing invalid conclusions.  OK this is not cherry picked but the conclusion is certainly not valid.

Go get me an analysis of a totally new line for a fully set up company and tell me how much it loses for how long.  It takes a minimum of half a decade for a company to make a profit when breaking into a new market which has even one dominant incumbent, let alone a brand spanking new company trying to break into a market with so many dominant incumbents that the US car companies are constantly on the verge of going bust.

Just go back and work out how long it took Microsoft to become profitable with the xBox.  In fact if it were not for the Games, Microsoft would probably still not make a profit on it.  If it had been another company trying to be like Sony, they would have gone bust in the first decade.

You posted a list of companies which had not made a profit, run by Musk.  Now give me a list of companies run by Musk that are older than 25 years!  You act as if Musk is some Playboy who took over an established company and drove it into the ground by borrowing money and not delivering.

You might want to read the wiki description on a start up company.

Quote
A startup or start-up is started by individual founders or entrepreneurs to search for a repeatable and scalable business model. More specifically, a startup is a newly emerged business venture that aims to develop a viable business model to meet a marketplace need or problem. Founders design startups to effectively develop and validate a scalable business model.[1][2] Hence, the concepts of startups and entrepreneurship are similar. However, entrepreneurship refers all new businesses, including self-employment and businesses that never intend to grow big or become registered, while startups refer to new businesses that intend to grow beyond the solo founder, have employees, and intend to grow large[3]. Start-ups face high uncertainty [4] and do have high rates of failure, but the minority that go on to be successful companies have to potential to become large and influential

Shorts have become so used to shorting tech companies that they forget that they can, quite literally, destroy nascent companies simply by blocking their access to raise capital from the markets.

That, in my mind, is trading to deliberately damage investors and that is "supposed" to be illegal.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 13, 2018, 10:45:24 AM
I'm not anti-Tesla cuz I'm short...I'm short cuz Tesla is fundamentally unprofitable, textbook over-valued, and likely highly fraudulent.

Live by the short, die by the short....
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 13, 2018, 10:51:02 AM

Lie. Cheat. Lie. Lie. Distract well meaning climate activist simpletons with a solution that doesn't really help....

That's just unacceptably insulting!

Sorry I have to disagree.  It is what GSY actually believes and if people are willing to be taken in then you can't quite say they are all astrophysicist's can you?

I support the right to the opinion, although the harshness is sometimes over the top.  However I do want the opinion to be backed up with a bit more than sheer hatred of a person.  That is not constructive.

I have become significantly unhappy about the way people have begun to say "I find that insulting" to shut down a line of argument or conversation.  I'm not saying that this is your case, because GSY has been pretty damned insulting over time here, but I won't support that line of argument when a robust debate is going on.

My take is destroy the argument, not try to stop it because I have become "insulted".  In that instance a thicker skin is required to debate.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 13, 2018, 10:53:10 AM
giggles. y'all would have been babbling profusely about the unsinkableness of the titanic while your bodies started to shut down from the chilly north atlantic. there is no way tesla built as many cars as you are claiming. its just some nonsense musk told fred to write.
I get it that one can be a Tesla skeptic, while still being a well-meaning environmentalist. I get it that Tesla does many things wrong. I get it that Musk tends to embellish the truth from time to time. I get it that someone decides to be short Tesla.
What I don't get is where you find that utter confidence that makes you write complete nonsense like thie bolded statement, which undermines a lot of things you write that could make sense.
The number of cars Tesla builds is tracked quite well and appears in its audited quarterly reports, on which you base your arguments of eternal losses. Fred has been reporting leaked numbers all throughout Q3 which turned out to be spot on when the oficial numbers came out. Moreover, the numbers Fred mentioned are not even high, they come out to less than 5000 a week, and are only slightly higher than the average rate throughout Q3.
When you first started posting anti-Tesla stuff I treated you as a credible source of objective criticism, and took to digging in your sources to find the truth of them. When I did find errors in them I found out you cared nothing about that. I have learned over time to discount mostly everything you write about Tesla as being hatred-driven slander. Moreover, your posts here are full of disrespecting terms and name-calling. This is why you are considered a troll in this thread, not because you are negative or short but because the hatred blinds you and makes you constantly lash out.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: silkman on October 13, 2018, 11:05:29 AM
Neil

I'm absolutely fine with all that and thoroughly enjoy the lively debates on this and other strings. Hearing different views opens minds.

What I took exception to in the quote above was the description of the users of this highly respected forum as "simpletons" albeit in a financial context. It's certainly not insulting to hold radically different views on issues as uncertain as the fate of Tesla but there's no need to suggest that the broader audience enjoying the banter is unable to understand the argument.

So I'm in no way trying to shut down the argument. Far from it. But I think forum users should be treated with a little more respect.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: BeeKnees on October 13, 2018, 11:14:23 AM
Tesla stock will crash this week...

I'm not going to bother citing anything. It's all over but the crying.

Do you see this prophesy as fulfilled?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 04:52:59 PM
As the old saying goes, "We lose money on every sale, but we make it up on volume."

I see you are taking the “Producing too many cars” Tesla Bear argument.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg176780.html#msg176780
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 07:08:33 PM
Tesla Model 3 #1 Selling Plug-In Electric Car In Canada For September
Quote
Tesla Model 3 once again leads the Canadian plug-in market.
Plug-in electric car sales for September in Canada are estimated by at approximately 4,396, which translates to year-over-year growth of 93% at a market share of over 2.5%.

The pace of growth slowed down as the generous $14,000 CAD incentive to purchase EVs in Ontario comes to an end (for cars ordered on or before July 11, the delivery needs to be completed by September 10). It means that October will bring much lower numbers.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-blows-up-canadian-sales-chart/

Q4 will be an interesting test of losing Ontario’s very generous incentive vs. the increasing demand for EVs.  (October will provide only a partial answer, since Tesla deliveries have historically been highest in the last month of a quarter.)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 07:11:21 PM
Tesla stock will crash this week...

I'm not going to bother citing anything. It's all over but the crying.

Do you see this prophesy as fulfilled?

No.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 07:32:00 PM
giggles. y'all would have been babbling profusely about the unsinkableness of the titanic while your bodies started to shut down from the chilly north atlantic. there is no way tesla built as many cars as you are claiming. its just some nonsense musk told fred to write.
I get it that one can be a Tesla skeptic, while still being a well-meaning environmentalist. I get it that Tesla does many things wrong. I get it that Musk tends to embellish the truth from time to time. I get it that someone decides to be short Tesla.
What I don't get is where you find that utter confidence that makes you write complete nonsense like thie bolded statement, which undermines a lot of things you write that could make sense.
The number of cars Tesla builds is tracked quite well and appears in its audited quarterly reports, on which you base your arguments of eternal losses. Fred has been reporting leaked numbers all throughout Q3 which turned out to be spot on when the oficial numbers came out. Moreover, the numbers Fred mentioned are not even high, they come out to less than 5000 a week, and are only slightly higher than the average rate throughout Q3.
When you first started posting anti-Tesla stuff I treated you as a credible source of objective criticism, and took to digging in your sources to find the truth of them. When I did find errors in them I found out you cared nothing about that. I have learned over time to discount mostly everything you write about Tesla as being hatred-driven slander. Moreover, your posts here are full of disrespecting terms and name-calling. This is why you are considered a troll in this thread, not because you are negative or short but because the hatred blinds you and makes you constantly lash out.

Nope.

For starters, the numbers Musk leaked are definitely high.  There are ppl who track how busy the Fremont factory is and they have been extremely accurate in predicting production. According to them, the rate of production has fallen below 4k a week for about 3 weeks now.

I started writing "anti-Tesla" stuff on here just pointing out that luxury electric cars for rich people partially paid for by burdening the youth with more debt is not really a very green thing to do.  The response I received from this was absurd. I was called an enemy of humanity, a Trumptard, a fool, a Russian troll, etc. If you are surprised that I call those flinging these moronic attacks morons, then you too are a fool.

As I further discussed the merits of my perspective with Tesla bulls, I realized that they were totally detached from reality. They didn't understand the basics of business or finance, and most troubling they drastically over inflated the potential reduction in emissions. This is not limited to members of this forum, but is systemic throughout all Tesla supporters. (for example, Ross Gerber, who is a tesla bull tv personality and fund manager claims that cars are responsible for 70% of emissions...he also just claimed that it was raining in LA cuz of how large hurricane michael was...)

It was actually this experience of discovering the depth of the delusion of Tesla bulls which convinced me to buy TSLA put options.

There is clear bias on this forum in favor of pro Tesla information. The idea that short sellers screw up the market is nonsense.  I can name dozens of serious and significant willful lies from Musk, yet short sellers just point out these lies and the financial precariousness of the company.

Elon Musk has a enormous carbon footprint. He is a habitual liar. He only know how to destroy capital. He was a rich, selfish prick who wanted to be on the cover of rolling stone. He figured out that pretending to save the world was the best way to feed his megalomaniac desires. That y'all worship this fraud is disgusting.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2018, 07:54:53 PM
Quote
According to them, the rate of production has fallen below 4k a week for about 3 weeks now.

Source?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 13, 2018, 08:08:15 PM
Well, the $7,500 that rich people received to help them pay for their luxury Teslas will be gone before it dribbles down to help the merely well off pay for their promised, but not delivered $35,000 Model 3s.
Buyers need their reservations in by the 15th, and take delivery by the end of the year. Those that handed over their $1,000 based on promises of a $35,000 Tesla, then added another $2,500 to 'keep their place in line", have found that the line handing out $7,500 closed before they had a chance to reach the winners circle.


Bait and Switch used to have negative connotations.
Ronnie's Trickle down Economics was characterized as pissing on the little guy.
Taking poor peoples thousand$ to build rich peoples discounted cars. What a guy!


Dispersing all of a companies rebates to the wealthiest customers, without even offering anything but vaporware, at a $1,000 a pop, to whatever is left of the American middle class is a betrayal of epic proportions.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 13, 2018, 08:13:39 PM
Quote
There are ppl who track how busy the Fremont factory is and they have been extremely accurate in predicting production. According to them, the rate of production has fallen below 4k a week for about 3 weeks now.
Against my better judgment, let's explore this. These people have posted predictions before. Can you provide a link to their past and current predictions? Then we can check how accurate their predictions were vs. the past official numbers, and assess the merit of their current numbers vs. Fred's whisper numbers.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 08:44:16 PM
https://twitter.com/skabooshka
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 08:52:55 PM
"In the scenario we just walked through, Tesla's acid-test ratio ends up at 0.20. In 2008, right before it went bankrupt, GM's acid-test ratio 0.30."

https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-wonders-how-tesla-will-pay-off-over-1b-in-debt-coming-due-2018-10
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 09:47:49 PM
https://twitter.com/skabooshka

A total Tesla troll.  See his tweets.  And he stopped “reporting” back in August.  His fan base is $TSLAQ (Tesla stock shorters), so naturally his message is negative.

@skabooshka has an odd habit of choosing the times when the lots are less busy. I work in the area, and I can assure you they are much busier than he would lead you to believe. Selective editing...nothing more
https://twitter.com/nixushiking/status/1032674261272387585

—-
skabooshka (@skabooshka).  8/11/18, 7:49 PM
Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis
https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1028428116966879232
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 10:09:03 PM
https://twitter.com/skabooshka

A total Tesla troll.  See his tweets.  And he stopped “reporting” back in August.  His fan base is $TSLAQ (Tesla stock shorters), so naturally his message is negative.

@skabooshka has an odd habit of choosing the times when the lots are less busy. I work in the area, and I can assure you they are much busier than he would lead you to believe. Selective editing...nothing more
https://twitter.com/nixushiking/status/1032674261272387585

—-
skabooshka (@skabooshka).  8/11/18, 7:49 PM
Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis
https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1028428116966879232

he hasn't been posting as often, true. is there a single prediction on production that he has made that is inaccurate?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 10:10:14 PM
Well, the $7,500 that rich people received to help them pay for their luxury Teslas will be gone before it dribbles down to help the merely well off pay for their promised, but not delivered $35,000 Model 3s.
Buyers need their reservations in by the 15th, and take delivery by the end of the year. Those that handed over their $1,000 based on promises of a $35,000 Tesla, then added another $2,500 to 'keep their place in line", have found that the line handing out $7,500 closed before they had a chance to reach the winners circle.
...
Terry

One more time:  The $2,500 is required when you actually place your order, not to “keep your place in line.”

And consider that if Elon/Tesla had not moved Model 3 production up by two years after the unexpectedly large response when most people made their reservations in 2016, Tesla would have been over the tax’s 200,000 car limit due to Model S/X deliveries alone, well before the first Model 3 came off the line.

Sure, it sucks to miss out on a potential $7,500 rebate (IF you qualified for it, by owing more than that amount in taxes, among other things).  But Tesla certainly never guaranteed it.  Tens of thousands will get a $3,750 rebate, and, as many have said, the rebate will affect what options they order — not whether or not they buy the car.

Also:  Oct 15 is a “guarantee” date, directed at everyone in the U.S., to account for production and delivery.  However, if you live in California (or travel there to pick up your car, as many do, so they can tour the factory, etc.) you could possibly order after that date and still get your car in time.  Also, you could buy a car from inventory on December 31 and qualify, time-wise.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 13, 2018, 10:12:56 PM
https://twitter.com/skabooshka
Seriously? Your accurate source is a twitter feed?
Quote
Tesla (via Electrek) claimed to produce >7k Model 3s since Oct 1. My view: The numbers are deeply sus
There are truly bizarre things happening at Tesla now. I will share by weekend, as I'm still nailing down the thesis.
The numbers are deeply sus. Or some people are extremely gullible.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 13, 2018, 10:13:42 PM
Musk owns five homes and a private jet. $72 million in personal real estate.  That's a man who's committed to combating climate change.

we all have assets on the pro and the con side, doing certain things that are not helpful is a pity in each case but not reduce the benefit/asset on the positive side.

generall i see a problem that most humans are only capable to be either pro or con, instead of being as objective as possible and see both sides and eventually weigh them and try to to better.

i like everyone have many good intentions and/or ideas but still drive way to fast every day and i mean "way too fast" and each time i think, damn vice to turn that throttle to full but it's fun.

usually it's a long and never ending process to get better and better and loose one vice/flaw after another.

so in short, what i want to say is, his statement about what tesla has been achieving for a change is all true, nevertheless the man has a long long way to go in in one way or another, mostly depending on age, experience and level of ethics / ego control, we are all sitting in the glass house.

the anonymity of the internet allows us to throw with stones but the fact to have our heads below the sofa does not mean that reality can't see our ass sticking out ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 10:19:25 PM
https://twitter.com/skabooshka
Seriously? Your accurate source is a twitter feed?
Quote
Tesla (via Electrek) claimed to produce >7k Model 3s since Oct 1. My view: The numbers are deeply sus
There are truly bizarre things happening at Tesla now. I will share by weekend, as I'm still nailing down the thesis.
The numbers are deeply sus. Or some people are extremely gullible.

Yes, seriously. what is wrong with information being distributed on twitter? if a source proves credit over time, that works for me.

You are the gullible one who continues to believe information put out by Musk despite the history of lies. You even thought the 420 thing was legit even though it was so obviously nonsense. I believe you said something like, "well i have no reason not to trust elon." that's willful ignorance.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 10:27:51 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2018, 10:28:01 PM
Skabooshka is a master manipulator.

In July he started releasing production numbers, predicting that production would crash. Then at the beginning of August, just as Tesla was hitting maximum production, he stopped reporting the numbers due to "lack of bandwidth".

Instead he started releasing periodic pictures of full parking lot claiming there was no demand. But it wasn't everyday he posted, just some times.  Other times he posted pictures of Empty parking lots, claiming that there was no production.

At the end of the quarter there was significant production and significant demand. Skabooska is a sophisticated liar.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 13, 2018, 10:46:25 PM
Skabooshka is a master manipulator.

Skabooska is a sophisticated liar.

No he is not. He is just a bum using tricks that have been around since there have been humans.

In one country I was in a guy invented a whole forest plus a planting and logging operation - all paid for by an International Development Agency for years - and he was able to do a runner before the cops banged on his door. Now there was a "master manipulator and a sophisticated liar".
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 10:48:40 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?

Your ridiculous obsession with the number 420 suggests you have a stronger then normal connection to it.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 11:03:28 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?

Your ridiculous obsession with the number 420 suggests you have a stronger then normal connection to it.

lol. it is your hero that seems to have the obsession. im just pointing it out. so i take it you are too much of a coward to actually answer my question.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 11:05:12 PM
Skabooshka is a master manipulator.

Skabooska is a sophisticated liar.

No he is not. He is just a bum using tricks that have been around since there have been humans.

In one country I was in a guy invented a whole forest plus a planting and logging operation - all paid for by an International Development Agency for years - and he was able to do a runner before the cops banged on his door. Now there was a "master manipulator and a sophisticated liar".

still no examples of his production estimates being wrong? just vague grumblings and insults.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:05:58 PM
Here's Musk lying about his logistical problems by falsely claiming a lack of car carriers.  With a chaser saying he's going to build his own car carriers, baiting all the naive fanboys.

https://jalopnik.com/auto-haulers-dont-know-anything-about-elon-musks-claime-1829329912


Quote
Tesla’s issues with delivering new Model 3s to their customers are quite well-known, since Elon Musk himself tweeted about it, and earlier this week Musk clarified the issue, stating that it was based on an “extreme shortage of car carrier trailers.” The weird thing is that if there is such an “extreme shortage,” nobody but Tesla seems to know about it, even the Auto Haulers Association of America.



Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 13, 2018, 11:07:13 PM
Well, the $7,500 that rich people received to help them pay for their luxury Teslas will be gone before it dribbles down to help the merely well off pay for their promised, but not delivered $35,000 Model 3s.
Buyers need their reservations in by the 15th, and take delivery by the end of the year. Those that handed over their $1,000 based on promises of a $35,000 Tesla, then added another $2,500 to 'keep their place in line", have found that the line handing out $7,500 closed before they had a chance to reach the winners circle.
...
Terry

One more time:  The $2,500 is required when you actually place your order, not to “keep your place in line.”

And consider that if Elon/Tesla had not moved Model 3 production up by two years after the unexpectedly large response when most people made their reservations in 2016, Tesla would have been over the tax’s 200,000 car limit due to Model S/X deliveries alone, well before the first Model 3 came off the line.

Sure, it sucks to miss out on a potential $7,500 rebate (IF you qualified for it, by owing more than that amount in taxes, among other things).  But Tesla certainly never guaranteed it.  Tens of thousands will get a $3,750 rebate, and, as many have said, the rebate will affect what options they order — not whether or not they buy the car.

Also:  Oct 15 is a “guarantee” date, directed at everyone in the U.S., to account for production and delivery.  However, if you live in California (or travel there to pick up your car, as many do, so they can tour the factory, etc.) you could possibly order after that date and still get your car in time.  Also, you could buy a car from inventory on December 31 and qualify, time-wise.
"Actually place your order", and "Keep your place in line" each yield the same results. You say Tomato, I say Tomatoe (thanks to D. Quail's Institute of Creative Spelling) :)

Those not paying in excess of $7,500/an in Federal Taxes have no business purchasing new cars, let alone spending $50k on one.

Musk/Tesla has gone through $1.5B in tax credits without ever offering a vehicle that a median household could reasonably afford. That is damn near criminal IMHO.
I still pay taxes in the US of A and can't think of a reason to not be pissed at this unreasonable extravagance that benefits none but the wealthy.

I began with no opinion about Musk or Tesla. Questions about the E-Semi and the Hyperloop gave me pause. I admit to a slight bias favoring those with Canadian passports, but the more I research Musk, the less I can give him the benefit of the doubt.

Did you read any of the customer comments from SolarCity's customers/victims?
These were aged retirees, some of whom had to return to work after being "bilked" (their word, not mine) by Musk, his slick salespeople and his expensive legal team.
I've been retired for over 20 years and I really do feel compassion for those about my age who retired on a shoestring, only to have that string pulled out from under them by a smooth talking con man.

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/solar-energy/solarcity.html (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/solar-energy/solarcity.html)

I was neutral, became suspicious, and am now at the point where I'll cheer his failure.
Amazing where some months of research can lead. :-X

Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:11:36 PM
Here's Musk lying about the amount of SolarCity installations on his earning call in August. Claiming there was hundreds of installs, but later clarified that their was hundreds of orders made



https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=83&v=ABR4KgXoZPE
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:18:15 PM
Here's musk claiming he's going to fix any home with contaminated water in Flint.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/elon-musk-pledges-fix-flint-water-homes-contamination/story?id=56565573



But instead, he "quietly" donated half a million dollars to install filtration systems in 12 schools. That's about 0.003% of his net worth.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/08/us/elon-musk-flint-schools-water-filtration-trnd/index.html

Thank you Musk
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2018, 11:19:15 PM

No he is not. He is just a bum using tricks that have been around since there have been humans.

Yeah. He is employing old simple tricks to deceive an audience ready to gobble up his lies. Old tricks are the best tricks I guess.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 13, 2018, 11:21:10 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?
If reservations required a deposit then they should show up in the accounts in a separate account. If accounting rules have not been totally corrupted deposits cannot be credited to sales as no value has been received by the customer. Maybe the SEC filings would show them.

http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings?field_nir_sec_form_group_target_id%5B%5D=496&field_nir_sec_date_filed_value=2018&items_per_page=10#views-exposed-form-widget-sec-filings-table

Tesla, Inc.
10-Q
08/06/2018 (2nd quarter)

Balance Sheet
                                                      Jun 30 2018                       Dec 31 2017
Customer deposits (USD '000)      942,129            853,919


Bingo (that took about 10 minutes including loading the spreadsheet and finding the data)

($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)

I think I believe in an SEC filing somewhat more than I believe in a tweet from Skumbumska. At least this thread offers some light relief and casual amusement.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:24:04 PM
Here's Tesla selling inventory when they were supposed to be a custom built-to-order company:

https://twitter.com/PhenomenalPoto/status/1050776404701442048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1050776404701442048&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.somethingawful.com%2Fshowthread.php%3Fthreadid%3D3862673%26userid%3D0%26perpage%3D40%26pagenumber%3D450

Chaotic fire sale of unsold inventory:
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9jupqr/prepare_for_chaos_at_fremont_delivery_center_this/


-------

The disappearance of the 35,000 model.

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-35000-model-3-might-not-arrive-until-2019-2018-9






And here's a chaser of the long list of problems with the Model 3
https://www.businessinsider.com/some-tesla-customers-experience-service-problems-2018-8


Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:27:26 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?
If reservations required a deposit then they should show up in the accounts in a separate account. If accounting rules have not been totally corrupted deposits cannot be credited to sales as no value has been received by the customer. Maybe the SEC filings would show them.

http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings?field_nir_sec_form_group_target_id%5B%5D=496&field_nir_sec_date_filed_value=2018&items_per_page=10#views-exposed-form-widget-sec-filings-table

Tesla, Inc.
10-Q
08/06/2018 (2nd quarter)

Balance Sheet
                                                      Jun 30 2018                       Dec 31 2017
Customer deposits (USD '000)      942,129            853,919


Bingo (that took about 10 minutes including loading the spreadsheet and finding the data)

($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)

I think I believe in an SEC filing somewhat more than I believe in a tweet from Skumbumska. At least this thread offers some light relief and casual amusement.

And I wonder how many of those deposits are for the $35,000 version. A car that doesn't exist. 
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:34:20 PM
Here's Musk claiming to be okay with union activity

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/998124140090376192


Of course, the workers tell a different story.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/10/tesla-workers-union-elon-musk
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 11:41:35 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?

Your ridiculous obsession with the number 420 suggests you have a stronger then normal connection to it.

lol. it is your hero that seems to have the obsession. im just pointing it out. so i take it you are too much of a coward to actually answer my question.

This section of Tesla’s report freaks you out because if you fixate on one part of one number you can say it has a double meaning?  Seriously??  ::)  There’s a “66” in there, does that bother you, too?  How about the “000”?  Surely the 11,1 must be a hidden code as well?  Unbelievable.

”11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.”


- Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries report, July 02,2018
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:43:40 PM
This is just stuff I remember. There's so much more. It's almost a weekly occurrence where Musk has himself a little incident. Constantly lying. Constantly deceiving his customers. Bullshitting on Twitter.

Most online discussions about Musk have come around to seeing through lies and deception. Especially after so many previous fraudsters coming out of Silicon Valley that behave just like Musk.
But because the bulls like sigmetnow and archimid constantly spam the forums with praise, and never criticism, the forum has adopted a pretty firm pro-Tesla stance.  It also doesn't help that many of the users here are wealthy enough to adopt the sort of "luxurious green" lifestyle Musk is trying to sell.   
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 11:46:00 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?
If reservations required a deposit then they should show up in the accounts in a separate account. If accounting rules have not been totally corrupted deposits cannot be credited to sales as no value has been received by the customer. Maybe the SEC filings would show them.

http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings?field_nir_sec_form_group_target_id%5B%5D=496&field_nir_sec_date_filed_value=2018&items_per_page=10#views-exposed-form-widget-sec-filings-table

Tesla, Inc.
10-Q
08/06/2018 (2nd quarter)

Balance Sheet
                                                      Jun 30 2018                       Dec 31 2017
Customer deposits (USD '000)      942,129            853,919


Bingo (that took about 10 minutes including loading the spreadsheet and finding the data)

($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)

I think I believe in an SEC filing somewhat more than I believe in a tweet from Skumbumska. At least this thread offers some light relief and casual amusement.

So you DO believe they had 420,000 reservations remain in July? Did you also believe Musk had funding secured to take Tesla private at $420 per share, only contingent on a shareholder vote?

You do understand that Tesla submits that information to the SEC and not that it is somehow SEC verified information, right? This same SEC who has accused Musk and Tesla of fraud on one account and is still investigation others, and who has brought in the DOJ to investigate the company criminally.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 13, 2018, 11:47:51 PM

This section of Tesla’s report freaks you out because if you fixate on one part of one number you can say it has a double meaning?  Seriously??  ::)  There’s a “66” in there, does that bother you, too?  How about the “000”?  Surely the 11,1 must be a hidden code as well?  Unbelievable.

”11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.”


- Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries report, July 02,2018

it is ridiculous to fixate on the number. But.... There is a hilarious precedent.

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2018/comp-pr2018-219.pdf

Quote
24. According to Musk, he calculated the $420 price per share based on a 20%
premium over that day’s closing share price because he thought 20% was a “standard premium”
in going-private transactions. This calculation resulted in a price of $419, and Musk stated that
he rounded the price up to $420 because he had recently learned about the number’s significance
in marijuana culture and thought his girlfriend “would find it funny, which admittedly is not a
great reason to pick a price.”
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 11:47:58 PM
”($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)”

Many people have spent many hours trying to work this out. :)

This difficulty is that Model S/X reservations are $5,000, so it messes up the math.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 11:49:01 PM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?

Your ridiculous obsession with the number 420 suggests you have a stronger then normal connection to it.

lol. it is your hero that seems to have the obsession. im just pointing it out. so i take it you are too much of a coward to actually answer my question.

This section of Tesla’s report freaks you out because if you fixate on one part of one number you can say it has a double meaning?  Seriously??  ::)  There’s a “66” in there, does that bother you, too?  How about the “000”?  Surely the 11,1 must be a hidden code as well?  Unbelievable.

”11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.

The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. When we start to provide customers an opportunity to see and test drive the car at their local store, we expect that our orders will grow faster than our production rate. Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and Model 3 Dual Motor All Wheel Drive Performance cars will also be available in our stores shortly.”


- Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries report, July 02,2018

blah blah blah. just answer the question. do you believe that Tesla had 420k reservation remaining in July? (in other words: are you a total fool, or do you admit that Musk is 420-fraudalicious ?)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2018, 11:51:32 PM
C.  None of the above.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 13, 2018, 11:52:45 PM
C.  None of the above.

so they didn't have the number of reservations that they claimed, but it isn't fraud to say so. am i getting this straight?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 12:04:26 AM
Nope, you are crooked.  They did have those reservations, and only your paranoia suggests otherwise.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 14, 2018, 12:44:32 AM
alright, serious question sig, oren, arch, rob: do you believe that when Tesla announced 4 months ago that they had 420,000 model 3 reservations remaining that they were telling the truth?
If reservations required a deposit then they should show up in the accounts in a separate account. If accounting rules have not been totally corrupted deposits cannot be credited to sales as no value has been received by the customer. Maybe the SEC filings would show them.

http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings?field_nir_sec_form_group_target_id%5B%5D=496&field_nir_sec_date_filed_value=2018&items_per_page=10#views-exposed-form-widget-sec-filings-table

Tesla, Inc.
10-Q
08/06/2018 (2nd quarter)

Balance Sheet
                                                      Jun 30 2018                       Dec 31 2017
Customer deposits (USD '000)      942,129            853,919


Bingo (that took about 10 minutes including loading the spreadsheet and finding the data)

($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)

I think I believe in an SEC filing somewhat more than I believe in a tweet from Skumbumska. At least this thread offers some light relief and casual amusement.

So you DO believe they had 420,000 reservations remain in July? Did you also believe Musk had funding secured to take Tesla private at $420 per share, only contingent on a shareholder vote?

You do understand that Tesla submits that information to the SEC and not that it is somehow SEC verified information, right? This same SEC who has accused Musk and Tesla of fraud on one account and is still investigation others, and who has brought in the DOJ to investigate the company criminally.
"Did you also believe Musk had funding secured to take Tesla private at $420 per share, only contingent on a shareholder vote?"

No I did not, and I wrote a post at the time saying that using the two words Funding Secured" would put Musk into a world of grief with the SEC, and it did.

I also do not believe or disbelieve the figure of 420,000. I do believe the SEC filing by TESLA that says they have $942 million in customer deposits as at 30 June 2018. The number of deposits is not specified. But 942 million must mean a helluva lot of deposits. The 420,000 is a figure from Musk - maybe it was a few thou different but it does not matter if he was taking the piss a bit, because it is probable that at a point in time it was exactly 420,000. In about a month we get to see the Qu3 10-k - given the SEC continuing probe into TESLA (see below) I guess only a bunch of crazies would knowingly submit lies in the filing.

And yes, TESLA (not Musk) submits the SEC filings. To lie in the SEC filing brings the entire company into jeopardy - with personal responsibility lying not just with Musk but with the entire board and especially the US equivalents of what in the UK we call the Company Secretary and the Financial Director.

The DOJ asked TESLA for some documents on a voluntary basis, there was no subpoena and there is no investigation announced. My guess is that the SEC got the DOJ involved to get a quick response from TESLA and give TESLA a poke with a sharp stick.

And that is all I am going to say about that.
________________________________________________________________
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-another-sec-probe-model-3-production-goals/
Quote
While the reasons behind Elon Musk’s latest Twitter session are still up for question, some details about the CEO’s aggravation over the SEC appear to have been teased by FBN’s Charlie Gasparino. In a segment on Fox Business, Gasparino noted that sources close to Tesla’s legal team and the SEC had informed him that the agency is still investigating Tesla, not because of Elon Musk’s “funding secured” tweet, but over the company’s previous forecasts on the Model 3 production ramp and and the company’s profitability.

“What we reported was from people close to the Tesla legal team and the Elon Musk legal team. What they’re telling us is that the SEC does continue to investigate Tesla. Remember, the “funding secured” thing is out of the way, but there’s an existing investigation that could take a bit longer. It involves Tesla and Elon Musk’s stated production goals for the Model 3 largely, and profitability; if those things match up to reality, and whether there’s a fraud case by saying ‘Hey, we’re gonna reach profitability, for example.'”

“The case focuses again on targets that Musk made and some of the other corporate executives as well, about when the Model 3 was gonna come out, how many were gonna be produced, and profitability. When Tesla was gonna be profitable. Remember, these goals have changed along the way. He’s now saying the third quarter should be profitable. We’ll see if it happens.”

Gasparino noted that the SEC’s investigation into Tesla’s Model 3 production and profitability goals would likely be more challenging for the agency than its “funding secured” lawsuit against the CEO. In order to corner Musk and Tesla, the SEC would have to prove that the company knowingly misled investors about the Model 3 ramp. If Tesla or Elon Musk admits that it has honestly miscalculated the progress of the Model 3 ramp, the SEC would likely have a difficult time proving its case. Gasparino noted that his sources in the SEC had informed him that this other Tesla investigation would likely be a very “tough” venture for the agency.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 02:20:01 AM
Nope, you are crooked.  They did have those reservations, and only your paranoia suggests otherwise.

Don't tell my wife. Poor gal thinks I'm straight still.

So you think they did have 420k reservations, and that it is just a coincidence that its the same number that Musk admits to using to commit fraud?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 02:25:23 AM
The DOJ asked TESLA for some documents on a voluntary basis, there was no subpoena and there is no investigation announced.

That information comes from a statement given by Tesla. Enron said something really similar. The DOJ can use the SEC's subeonas.

Can you give a single example of the SEC using the DOJ as you described...for leverage? I highly doubt it. That's not the way shit works.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 06:07:16 AM
it is really incredible. many responses to my question, without a single definitive, "yes, I believe there were still 420k reservations"...i wonder why...
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 06:09:10 AM
I also do not believe or disbelieve the figure of 420,000.

be more pathetic. seriously. i want to see the limits of human depravity. ;D
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 14, 2018, 08:52:24 AM
it is really incredible. many responses to my question, without a single definitive, "yes, I believe there were still 420k reservations"...i wonder why...
You are trolling and polluting this thread demanding an answer. Some people sometimes choose not to feed the troll by avoiding the continued exchange. I hope more choose this over time, including myself.
To the point, I see no reason to disbelieve an official number given by Tesla, just because it fails some numerology test
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 14, 2018, 10:54:52 AM
”($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)”

Many people have spent many hours trying to work this out. :)

This difficulty is that Model S/X reservations are $5,000, so it messes up the math.

Thanks, Sigmetnow.
And I'd like to second gerontocrat's words :
"942 million must mean a helluva lot of deposits."
That puts the numbers game into perspective  ;)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 14, 2018, 10:59:34 AM
So I'm in no way trying to shut down the argument. Far from it. But I think forum users should be treated with a little more respect.

I'm OK with respect, but when you are mad as hell because someone is saying something you truly believe is totally wrong and that the other person simply doesn't "get it", I can see the annoyance taking over.

So long as it is not constant and gratuitous, then I prefer there is an outlet.  I can take being called a simpleton, I know I'm not.  GSY actually has money on the expected outcome.  If it turns out that I'm right and GSY is not, then there is more to lose than a little ruffled feathers.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 14, 2018, 11:22:26 AM
So I'm in no way trying to shut down the argument. Far from it. But I think forum users should be treated with a little more respect.

I'm OK with respect, but when you are mad as hell because someone is saying something you truly believe is totally wrong and that the other person simply doesn't "get it", I can see the annoyance taking over.

So long as it is not constant and gratuitous, then I prefer there is an outlet.  I can take being called a simpleton, I know I'm not.  GSY actually has money on the expected outcome.  If it turns out that I'm right and GSY is not, then there is more to lose than a little ruffled feathers.

This started when I stated to GoSouthYoungins :

Quote
Geez. What did Tesla every do wrong to you ?
Are you a short-seller ?

to which GoSouthYoungins stated :

Quote
Lie. Cheat. Lie. Lie. Distract well meaning climate activist simpletons with a solution that doesn't really help. Lie.

Yes, I own low strike price put options dated from next week thru jan 2020.

Just notice that the last line in GoSouthYoungins's response is more interesting than the insults in the lines prior. Ignore the "Lie. Cheat. Lie. Lie. Distract..." lines.

GoSouthYoungins is a Tesla short-seller.

Thus we can all safely consider this guy as a Tesla bear troll with a conflict of interest and an anti-Tesla agenda.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 14, 2018, 12:16:54 PM
Also if you short a stock  and then spread false rumors to lower the price you are a criminal. The crime is called short and distort. Of course enforcing this law is not as easy as throwing immigrant children in concentration camps. Their crime is hard to prove in a court of law and unlike immigrant children, short and distorters  have lawyers.

Also the SEC has no interest in enforcing this law.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 01:02:40 PM
Again in September, the Tesla Model 3 generated more revenue than any other passenger car in the U.S., at any price.

Congratulations, @elonmusk and @Tesla on the #1 selling car [by revenue] in the U.S. in the most recent quarter, beating the 2nd place Toyota Camry by more than $1 billion!
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1051224709403238403
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 01:32:02 PM
Tesla is too big to fail — but not for the reason you might think
Quote
   •   Tesla has been blistered by criticism for months, but the company and CEO Elon Musk are still standing.
   •   Tesla survived the summer and Musk settled with the SEC just in time to witness the UN issue its most dire warnings about global warming to date.
   •   If we have only until 2040 to drastically reduce the warming trend, we can't afford to lose Tesla and the potentially millions of electric-vehicles it could sell.


Tesla isn't big — but it's too big to fail.

The bottom line is that the species needs Tesla to sell 200,000 cars this year, 400,000 cars next year, and as soon as possible, millions of vehicles annually. And that alone won't be enough. All the other automakers need to join Tesla and replace the planet's one billion gas-burning cars with much cleaner alternatives.

This means that Tesla is too big to fail, even though it isn't very big. What's actually too big is Tesla's impact; without Musk's urging, the limited electric-car race we're now witnessing wouldn't have happened. If Tesla does collapse, going to zero as some of its more aggressive short-sellers hope it does, we could lose five or ten years in the framework of the twenty we have to work with.
We simply can't lose those years.

So just as General Motors and Chrysler were too big to fail in the financial crisis — their demises would have displaced hundreds of thousands of workers and blown a hole in US GDP — Tesla is too big to fail in the face of a climate crisis.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-is-too-big-to-fail-2018-10

Quote
A lot of executives in the automotive industry are retiring. They don’t have any fight left in them. Most auto makers are a jobs program for people who build diesel engines. No one has the courage to lead that change, to dismantle the machine that builds the pollution.
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1050400061232898049


EVs are too expensive, BMW cries.  An odd thing for a high-priced, premium carmaker to say.  As it works to secure cobalt supply until 2030 — but well before then, batteries may no longer need it.
The Reason Why BMW Is Not Going All in on Electric Cars
Quote
Even though BMW plans to grow its portfolio of electrified vehicles, Frölich sounds anxious about leaving the gas-guzzling internal combustion engine behind. “So, it’s a nightmare that an electrified vehicle will cost the same as a combustion-engined car,” Frölich says. This could be contributing to the company’s lag in sales this year and why many of its customers could be turning to Tesla.
https://www.inverse.com/article/49782-bmw-struggling-to-embrace-electric-cars

“Tesla's Model 3, meanwhile, goes Pac-Man on BMW and the entire mid-size luxury sedan market”
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 14, 2018, 02:57:44 PM
Tesla is too big to fail — but not for the reason you might think
Quote
   •   Tesla has been blistered by criticism for months, but the company and CEO Elon Musk are still standing.
   •   Tesla survived the summer and Musk settled with the SEC just in time to witness the UN issue its most dire warnings about global warming to date.
   •   If we have only until 2040 to drastically reduce the warming trend, we can't afford to lose Tesla and the potentially millions of electric-vehicles it could sell.


Tesla isn't big — but it's too big to fail.

The bottom line is that the species needs Tesla to sell 200,000 cars this year, 400,000 cars next year, and as soon as possible, millions of vehicles annually. And that alone won't be enough. All the other automakers need to join Tesla and replace the planet's one billion gas-burning cars with much cleaner alternatives.

This means that Tesla is too big to fail, even though it isn't very big. What's actually too big is Tesla's impact; without Musk's urging, the limited electric-car race we're now witnessing wouldn't have happened. If Tesla does collapse, going to zero as some of its more aggressive short-sellers hope it does, we could lose five or ten years in the framework of the twenty we have to work with.
We simply can't lose those years.

So just as General Motors and Chrysler were too big to fail in the financial crisis — their demises would have displaced hundreds of thousands of workers and blown a hole in US GDP — Tesla is too big to fail in the face of a climate crisis.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-

Take note of this rhetoric and the narrative it's building. Green tech giants are going to insulate themselves from failure by using public funds as bailouts. They will build empires of expensive, inefficient "green" solutions that will be desperately heralded as the only way to defeat climate change.  They will use their cult of personalities and strong lobbying efforts to pump their companies with public funds during start-up, and continue to do so as they falter and fail. They will use this money to purchase private jets and mansions, just like Musk has. 

Tesla has already received billions in government subsidies to build cars that reinforce a suburban lifestyle. That money should have been spent on things like medium density housing, public transport, and other inclusive sustainability projects.  But instead we keep on building expensive hunks of metal for rich people and claiming it as saving the world.


It greatly upsets me that this is the path we're taking. And it is unbelievable disappointing to see a forum of such smart people endorse it.  I know I come off as a raving lunatic on this forum, and have my account ignored by many people. And maybe I am crazy. And maybe this path will work out in the end. But I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 14, 2018, 03:35:15 PM
Quote
I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.
I generally agree with this comment. Green BAU cannot solve the world's problems quickly enough and/or thoroughly enough, and on its own will end in failure. Other solutions are required as well - sharply reduced consumption, sharply reduced pollution, and reduced population (sharply reducing births). What I fail to understand is why so many hate Tesla for trying to build some kind of partial solution, as if they are to blame that other more thorough, quicker and more correct solutions are not implemented. Blame politicians, and even more blame the general public whose priorities dictate all this, and/or who lets distractions and expensive ads to sway its votes.
The claim that because of Tesla all those simpletons lose sight of the real problem is pure nonsense.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 14, 2018, 03:54:54 PM

Take note of this rhetoric and the narrative it's building. Green tech giants are going to insulate themselves from failure by using public funds as bailouts. They will build empires of expensive, inefficient "green" solutions that will be desperately heralded as the only way to defeat climate change.  They will use their cult of personalities and strong lobbying efforts to pump their companies with public funds during start-up, and continue to do so as they falter and fail. They will use this money to purchase private jets and mansions, just like Musk has. 

Tesla has already received billions in government subsidies to build cars that reinforce a suburban lifestyle. That money should have been spent on things like medium density housing, public transport, and other inclusive sustainability projects.  But instead we keep on building expensive hunks of metal for rich people and claiming it as saving the world.

It greatly upsets me that this is the path we're taking. And it is unbelievable disappointing to see a forum of such smart people endorse it.  I know I come off as a raving lunatic on this forum, and have my account ignored by many people. And maybe I am crazy. And maybe this path will work out in the end. But I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.

There are two narratives going on in this thread -

- Is TESLA a going concern?
- Is the strategy being used to address environmental degradation and destruction going to work?

There is a probability that TESLA is a going concern at least until the existing economic system enters its end of days. (ps: TESLA is a minnow in extracting public subsidies compared with the whales that are the Fossil Fuel majors).

Will CO2 emissions (and all the other stuff) be fixed by the existing economic system? Probably not. Will the people rise and force change through the ballot box? Probably not. Will Trump clones offer simplistic solutions and get into office either through the ballot or other means? Probably yes.

But EVs will reduce CO2 emissions (or at least slow the increase) as part of a mitigation strategy.
Bellowing and screaming about Musk and TESLA is a waste of time and effort. Indeed, it is entirely counter-productive, a diversion from the immense effort that is required to wean people off the growth / consumption carousel.

And that is (definitely) all I am going to say about that.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 04:52:15 PM
  Sales of Tesla EVs smash Jaguar and Porsche gassers.

Tesla Crushes Porsche & Jaguar Worldwide
Quote
Tesla is scoring too many blowout sales milestones. It needs to cool it.
Before jumping into the latest number-crunching fun, here’s a quick recap of some notable sales milestones Tesla just achieved in case you missed them:

   •   The Tesla Model 3 is now the 4th best selling car in the USA.
   •   Tesla is now the #1 top selling luxury vehicle brand in the USA.
   •   Tesla has had 25,913% sales growth in 6 years, from 321 sales in Q3 2012 to 83,500 sales in Q3 2018.
   •   Tesla more than doubled its previous quarterly delivery record in Q3.
   •   The Tesla Model 3 is the #1 highest grossing car (in terms of monthly revenue) in the USA.
   •   The Tesla Model 3 is the #1 top selling American car in the USA.


Phew.
But that’s just the beginning.
I reported at the end of July that Tesla production seemed to be passing Jaguar production (worldwide), and I reported earlier in July that Tesla may overtake Porsche (worldwide).
I just calculated the 3rd quarter totals for these companies* and Tesla beat both Jaguar and Porsche. In fact, despite the other brands seeing modest growth, Tesla crushed them.

Brand  Q3 2018
Tesla       83,500
Jaguar    41,940
Porsche   65,964


Naturally, the most important thing is that every single Tesla sale is an electric car sale, which means less pollution, less global warming, and less noise.
Tesla’s sales growth is driven by the Model 3, which is somehow competing with cars half or a third of its price for the top selling car title in the United States. It seems that Tesla just produced the 100,000th Model 3 in the past week or so. Both Bloomberg’s production tracker and Teslike’s production tracker went passed the 100,000 car milestone this week. How long till the next 100,000 Model 3s are out the door and in customers’ hands?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/12/tesla-crushes-porsche-jaguar-worldwide/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 05:24:14 PM
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs)
10/14/18, 11:07 AM
Quote
#Tesla registered 9,426 new #Model3 VINs. ~52% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 148386. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1051489649250717696

30,478 Model 3 Vehicle Identification Numbers registered in October so far.

Edit:
Tesla reaches milestone of 100,000 Model 3 vehicles
Quote
It took the company quite a few years to achieve 100,000 Model S and Model X sales.  Today however, just a year after a slow start in production, Tesla has reached the milestone of 100,000 Model 3 vehicles produced. That’s not only much faster than Tesla’s other vehicles, it’s faster than any other EV model in history.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/13/tesla-model-3-100000-milestone/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/tesla-s-model-3-passes-the-100-000-mark
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 09:24:58 PM
To the point, I see no reason to disbelieve an official number given by Tesla, just because it fails some numerology test

It's the same number he used 35 days later in an admitted fraud. If you don't see this as a reason, you simply don't want to. "Willful-ignorance" is your watchword.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 09:30:08 PM
Also if you short a stock  and then spread false rumors to lower the price you are a criminal. The crime is called short and distort. Of course enforcing this law is not as easy as throwing immigrant children in concentration camps. Their crime is hard to prove in a court of law and unlike immigrant children, short and distorters  have lawyers.

Also the SEC has no interest in enforcing this law.

This is totally inapplicable here. The shorts are constantly screaming there thesis from the rooftops. But there is nothing false about it.

You are like a person at a firing range yelling at everyone that they should be tried for murder, and forgetting crux of the issue...the bullets are hitting paper and not people.

Shorting and espousing negative information about the company is as much a crime as shooting a gun is...that is to say, it is not.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 09:34:00 PM
GoSouthYoungins is a Tesla short-seller.

Thus we can all safely consider this guy as a Tesla bear troll with a conflict of interest and an anti-Tesla agenda.

You aren't exactly a financial wizard now are you?

Do you understand this difference between buying the option to sell the stock at a certain price through a certain date and selling a stock which the seller borrowed?

I don't think there is anything wrong with short selling, but that's not what I'm doing so at least get your insults straight.


Also, if someone owns Tesla stock, are they therefore a Tesla Bull Troll with a conflict of interest?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 09:36:54 PM
So long as it is not constant and gratuitous, then I prefer there is an outlet.  I can take being called a simpleton, I know I'm not.  GSY actually has money on the expected outcome.  If it turns out that I'm right and GSY is not, then there is more to lose than a little ruffled feathers.

Meh, not really. Buying an option is a sunk cost. That money is gone.

What percent of simpletons think they are simpletons?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 09:46:37 PM
   
Tesla deploys new Powerpack project that could save Colorado ratepayers $1 million per year
Quote
Tesla was an “easy choice” for the project:
“I feel they’re kind of battle tested. They’ve been operating cars and doing things with batteries for a long time. There’s a bit of a known quantity to the Tesla battery,”


It’s the electric utility’s first battery energy storage project, but Marizza said that they need to deploy more:

“Everybody is watching, there will be a lot of eyeballs on this project and see how successful we are with it and I’m sure it will spur some other activity in this state,”

United Power expects the Powerpack project to come online in the coming weeks.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/14/tesla-powerpack-project-save-colorado-ratepayers/


“Despite FUD, the #Tesla brand has crossed the inflection point: it is increasingly associated *across the world* with innovation, hard work, passion, and safety, thanks to customers.
   
Next up:
- Growth AND profits
- Highest quality
- Mass-market”
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1051493898269458432
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 14, 2018, 09:49:07 PM
GSY, you need to post some more anti-propaganda and less opinion. Remember what the thread is for.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 14, 2018, 09:51:07 PM
Quote
But there is nothing false about it.

If you were a short seller and you engage in the type of deception that skabooshka spits out, you are committing a crime. That's plain and simple. Short selling already injects enough unnecessary risk for shareholders to allow short sellers to also distort the market to compound the negative pressure on the stock.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Zythryn on October 14, 2018, 10:21:48 PM
...It greatly upsets me that this is the path we're taking. And it is unbelievable disappointing to see a forum of such smart people endorse it.  I know I come off as a raving lunatic on this forum, and have my account ignored by many people. And maybe I am crazy. And maybe this path will work out in the end. But I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.


Rather than tearing down the companies and people that are doing, in your view, not enough.  Why don't you promote solutions that are better?

No single solution is going to fix everything.  So add to the options, rather than tearing down partial fixes.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 14, 2018, 10:39:13 PM
And in the meantime, let's use this thread to mainly post articles, op-eds, videos, etc, that are either pro or anti Tesla glory or failure. If there aren't any, let's all just shut up and show some patience.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 14, 2018, 10:50:39 PM
And in the meantime, let's use this thread to mainly post articles, op-eds, videos, etc, that are either pro or anti Tesla glory or failure. If there aren't any, let's all just shut up and show some patience.

But Neven, I NEED my daily dose of vitriol.

I kid you not. In some well-run Old Peoples' Homes, (no, I am not there yet), they encourage argument as it stops people going into stasis.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: sidd on October 14, 2018, 11:19:18 PM
from http://chaimsteinmetz.blogspot.com/2013/06/we-didnt-get-here-by-complaining.html

"The joke is told about the well known businessman who has a heart ailment, and is taken to the best hospital in New York. A few days later, he abruptly transfers to a small hospital best known for its mediocrity. When he arrives there, the attending physician is intrigued, wondering why this man has transferred from a world class hospital to his humble facility. So he asks his celebrity patient what was wrong with the previous hospital.

"Was the medical care not good enough?"

"No - the medical care was remarkable, with one doctor more brilliant than the next. I can't complain".

"Was the nursing care OK?"

"The nurses were absolute angels. I can't complain"

"What about the food and the rooms?"

"The food was exceptional, restaurant quality, and the hospital rooms were just redecorated. I can't complain".

Finally, the doctor asks: "So why did you come here?"

"Here…I CAN complain!" "

http://chaimsteinmetz.blogspot.com/2013/06/we-didnt-get-here-by-complaining.html

sidd
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2018, 12:15:16 AM
8 “Impossible” Goals Tesla Achieved
October 14th, 2018
Quote
You may want to write this off as a clickbait fluff piece. Well, it may clickbait (depending on the definition you’re using) but it is certainly not a fluffy Furby, a flufferbot, or a feckless sideshow. In fact, I think the points illustrated below are often essential for understanding Tesla and its critics.

The point is not, “Hey, Tesla did some things.” The biggest point, actually, is that every step of the way there have been loud voices claiming Tesla’s goals were impossible and that Tesla would fail and collapse just around the corner. While the official “Tesla Death Watch” was shut off approximately a decade ago, some of the critics have stuck around and the claims that Tesla’s next step will basically be its last step have never ended.

No matter how much such claims are wrong, when they are made continuously for a decade, people start to associate the company with the claims. Some people start to associate Tesla with failure even though it has achieved stunning success after stunning success. It takes stepping back for a moment in order to realize that these associations are manufactured — were planted in our heads by incorrect claims.

Let’s start in 2013 with some comments from George Blankenship, who had formerly worked at Apple and was then a top exec at Tesla:

“Everything we do is difficult. And why is it so difficult? It’s because everything we do is impossible to everybody else. When you think about what Tesla does, and you go back four or five years ago and you say: ‘I am going to do an electric car that is going to go over 200 miles, goes zero to 60 in under 4 seconds and it is going to look great.’ And what is everyone going to say? It’s impossible.

“And as soon as we do that, what do we say? ‘Now we are going to build a 4-door sedan that seats seven people and goes 300 miles and goes zero to 60 in under 4.5 seconds. Impossible for everybody else on the planet except for Tesla.

“And then you say: ‘Now, how are we going to talk to customers about this and how are we going to do this?’ So, ‘why don’t we go open up stores in the mall and have people wander in, and we will tell them about electric vehicles, and we will try really hard not to sell them anything? Why don’t we do that? Really?’

“And that’s what we do every day.”


Indeed. That should kick us off.

[ List follows....]
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/14/8-impossible-goals-tesla-achieved/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 15, 2018, 01:17:43 AM
Quote
But there is nothing false about it.

If you were a short seller and you engage in the type of deception that skabooshka spits out, you are committing a crime. That's plain and simple. Short selling already injects enough unnecessary risk for shareholders to allow short sellers to also distort the market to compound the negative pressure on the stock.

I've asked several times for an example of an incorrect production estimate he has made and....crickets. Can you point to anything concrete or are you just sure that those who disagree with you are criminals?

Also, can you explain how short selling injects risk for shareholders? Do you understand how short selling works?

Finally, why is short selling only a concern for companies that are frauds? Can you point to a single legitimate business that was brought down due to short selling?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 15, 2018, 01:21:01 AM
Why don't you promote solutions that are better?

Are you under the impression that saying something is not a genuine solution is mutually exclusive from promoting a different solution?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 15, 2018, 02:13:10 AM
I've asked several times for an example of an incorrect production estimate he has made and....crickets.
You have not provided any production estimates he has made (dates, numbers), nor have you shown any linkage between his estimates and actual production numbers.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 15, 2018, 02:42:08 AM
Quote
I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.
I generally agree with this comment. Green BAU cannot solve the world's problems quickly enough and/or thoroughly enough, and on its own will end in failure. Other solutions are required as well - sharply reduced consumption, sharply reduced pollution, and reduced population (sharply reducing births). What I fail to understand is why so many hate Tesla for trying to build some kind of partial solution, as if they are to blame that other more thorough, quicker and more correct solutions are not implemented. Blame politicians, and even more blame the general public whose priorities dictate all this, and/or who lets distractions and expensive ads to sway its votes.
The claim that because of Tesla all those simpletons lose sight of the real problem is pure nonsense.

We're at a point where we can't simply accept any "partial solution". We can't just take everything at face value.
The crisis is severe. Our time is limited. We need to approach everything with a critical eye. Simply rubber stamping every "green" solution is a bad idea. We have to be smarter than that. This cocktail of desperation and late-stage capitalism is going to give us a nasty hangover.

We are already seeing the effects of diverting public funds into the private sphere.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/12/17109708/via-arlington-texas-rideshare-app-replaces-bus
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/04/03/innisfil-taps-uber-to-fill-public-transit-void.html

We are abandoning proven, reliable, inclusive, and green public transportation for the venture capitalists in Silicon Valley.

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2017/12/what-elon-musk-doesnt-get-about-urban-transit/548843/


I'm not against electric vehicles. I'm not a Luddite. In fact, I plan on transferring schools just to focus on power and motors, because I know that electric motors is a critical piece in the climate change puzzle

But the only god damn thing that will stop climate change is to transform our society. To stop polluting. To stop exploiting. To stop stealing resources. To have respect for the people and the world around us. To be equal. And people like Musk are selling us a world where we continue the cycle of greed, destruction, and exploitation. The batteries may be one step forward, but the framework is fifty steps back.

The sooner you realize this, the sooner we can move forward.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: zizek on October 15, 2018, 02:51:29 AM

Take note of this rhetoric and the narrative it's building. Green tech giants are going to insulate themselves from failure by using public funds as bailouts. They will build empires of expensive, inefficient "green" solutions that will be desperately heralded as the only way to defeat climate change.  They will use their cult of personalities and strong lobbying efforts to pump their companies with public funds during start-up, and continue to do so as they falter and fail. They will use this money to purchase private jets and mansions, just like Musk has. 

Tesla has already received billions in government subsidies to build cars that reinforce a suburban lifestyle. That money should have been spent on things like medium density housing, public transport, and other inclusive sustainability projects.  But instead we keep on building expensive hunks of metal for rich people and claiming it as saving the world.

It greatly upsets me that this is the path we're taking. And it is unbelievable disappointing to see a forum of such smart people endorse it.  I know I come off as a raving lunatic on this forum, and have my account ignored by many people. And maybe I am crazy. And maybe this path will work out in the end. But I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.

There are two narratives going on in this thread -

- Is TESLA a going concern?
- Is the strategy being used to address environmental degradation and destruction going to work?

There is a probability that TESLA is a going concern at least until the existing economic system enters its end of days. (ps: TESLA is a minnow in extracting public subsidies compared with the whales that are the Fossil Fuel majors).

Will CO2 emissions (and all the other stuff) be fixed by the existing economic system? Probably not. Will the people rise and force change through the ballot box? Probably not. Will Trump clones offer simplistic solutions and get into office either through the ballot or other means? Probably yes.

But EVs will reduce CO2 emissions (or at least slow the increase) as part of a mitigation strategy.
Bellowing and screaming about Musk and TESLA is a waste of time and effort. Indeed, it is entirely counter-productive, a diversion from the immense effort that is required to wean people off the growth / consumption carousel.

And that is (definitely) all I am going to say about that.

Well. Musk is a significant donor to the republican party. His opulent lifestyle is no different than the cowards and leeches in the political and lobbyist sphere. His gamesmanship is the embodiment of everything wrong with the American political establishments.


So yeah, I dunno, Maybe he did reduce emissions. But who knows if it was worth it
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 15, 2018, 03:56:07 AM
I've asked several times for an example of an incorrect production estimate he has made and....crickets.
You have not provided any production estimates he has made (dates, numbers), nor have you shown any linkage between his estimates and actual production numbers.

Thus, he is a criminal...  ???

Archtard is saying he engaged in criminal deception without referencing anything. And you take his side. I hope you all join Musk on his BFR and shoot off to Mars.

(all you have to do is scroll down. twitter isn't overly complex; I thought the link was sufficient)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 15, 2018, 04:21:32 AM
You have not provided any production estimates he has made (dates, numbers), nor have you shown any linkage between his estimates and actual production numbers.
(all you have to do is scroll down. twitter isn't overly complex; I thought the link was sufficient)
I scrolled down for a few minuted and couldn't find anything substantial. As you had claimed he was very accurate in his predictions, I am certain you can point out to his specific predicted numbers and how they compare with actual/official/estimated numbers. We would need all his predictions, not just cherry-picked ones of course. So the link was insufficient. If you make a specific claim, back it up so others can check it.

Quote
*** is saying he engaged in criminal deception without referencing anything. And you take his side. I hope you all join Musk on his BFR and shoot off to Mars.
I do not think short selling is criminal or even a negative behavior, nor is disseminating non-rosy data a negative behavior (though active defamation purely to drive down stock value is a negative behavior). I am not sure in which of these behaviors skabooshka engages nor do I much care. And you can buy all the puts you want and it doesn't make you bad person. Hey I bought some TSLA puts in the past as well. I do find gross name-calling on my favorite public forum a negative behavior though, and I feel the same about excessive sarcasm or wishing people off to another planet.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 15, 2018, 04:37:54 AM
Quote
Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis.

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1028428116966879232

This was on August 12 just as Tesla production started to ramp to record high levels.

Before that he was giving exact numbers.

That's how people lie without lying. This is common in the anti-Tesla spheres as is common behavior in pro-Trump spheres and climate change denying spheres.

To me, they are all part of the same thing.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 15, 2018, 06:25:49 AM
Archtard is saying he engaged in criminal deception without referencing anything. And you take his side. I hope you all join Musk on his BFR and shoot off to Mars.

I'm getting tired of the repetitiveness, so I've put GSY on moderation and will pre-approve his posts before they appear, hoping for more anti-Tesla articles, tweets, op-eds, etc.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 15, 2018, 07:12:34 AM
I'm getting tired of the repetitiveness, so I've put GSY on moderation and will pre-approve his posts before they appear, hoping for more anti-Tesla articles, tweets, op-eds, etc.
To help maintain your resolve I will post short-side articles from time to time, though I might point out the most obvious flaws. To start, here's one from a few days ago by Bill Maurer.
Quote
As we approach the midway point of October, it doesn't appear that Tesla is making any major progress on the Model 3 front. There have been no declarations that production hit the 6,000 a week goal for late August, and the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker remains in the low 4,000 a week rate. Without a cheaper version or deliveries to Europe soon, Tesla may be exhausting its US demand quite quickly. The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
...
In the end, the cracks are starting to show at Tesla. Model 3 progress seems to be well behind schedule still, with management not updating production plans or giving a reservation count at the Q3 quarterly announcement. You would have figured we'd hear something if the numbers were good, so what does that tell you? In the last couple of weeks, Norway sales have dropped just as Jaguar i-Pace deliveries are starting to ramp, and more competition is coming along with major tax break headwinds in 2019. With interest rates on the rise, Tesla's debt pile is becoming even more dangerous, which has resulted in investors selling both the company's stock and bonds recently.

It mentions the Elon Musk margin call which is mostly nonsense. And I highly doubt the thesis that the demand for the high-priced M3 versions will be exhausted this quarter (the new theme on the block). In addition, the "scary" competition is actually late and expensive.

On the other hand, this I agree with:
Quote
As the solar business has cratered since Tesla took it over, investors continue to be hurt by the acquired segment's huge losses and cash burn. One must wonder how much better Tesla's financials would look without that "bailout," even if Elon Musk's image would have lost a bit of luster by letting SolarCity go bankrupt.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211098-tesla-cracks-showing (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211098-tesla-cracks-showing)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 15, 2018, 11:05:14 AM
I was reading an article about Tesla and seekingalpha whilst waiting to board my flight in Bordeaux last night.  The author was explaining a fair bit about how the press releases hardly ever got it right about the company the author was working for except when analysing actual results.  It is on my laptop in the apartment, I'll get it off tonight.

The other thing the author mentioned was the incredibly low entry bar at seekingslpha for contributing.  Kind of reminds me of wuwt.

There are a few possible options as to what Tesla is doing right now.  My personal favourite is that the very best way to burn the shorts is to make it really look like the company is in trouble by not posting good news, then pulling results out of the hat at results time.

Of course Tesla could be in trouble and failing to make a profit, I accept that.  But consider this, there is significant issue, in investor circles about Tesla profitability.  So why would the press expect Tesla to borrow more, fix lending rates in the face of increasing rates and, generally, do a whole load of things to decrease profitability?

I learned a lot arguing with the faithful on wuwt and the most persistent trait was the one where people would agree with a position their own position made untenable, so long as it trashed global warming science.

Equally Tesla bears who trash Tesla efforts to show the profit investors claim to want, are suspect and should be viewed with caution
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2018, 02:09:56 PM
The much-anticipated Version 9 (V9) [moving towards Full Self Driving] software recently began rolling out to Tesla cars via Over The Air (OTA) push.  Different features are updated on all models, but cars with the latest, Level 2 hardware (HW2, AP2) see the most improvement.

Background on HW2: 
Quote
It has 8 cameras all around the Model S and Model X. 3 of them are front-facing, one narrow forward camera with a range of 250m, another mid-range 150m, which acts as the main camera, and a wide forward camera with a shorter range of 60m.
There are also cameras on each side of the front fenders and B-pillars – and finally, there’s a rear-facing one.
Tesla also uses radar and GPS data, but the cameras are becoming increasingly more important as Tesla uses more of them with each software update.
https://electrek.co/2017/05/16/tesla-autopilot-2-0-can-see

And on V9:
First look at Tesla's version 9 software update with new UI, features, and more
https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/tesla-version-9-software-update-new-ui-features/
   

Now comes the nerdy, exciting bit 8) , via a detailed examination of the new Autopilot Neural Net system, posted on the TMC forum.  Brief excerpts:
Quote
"Well, the V9 network appears to be camera agnostic. It can process the output from any camera on the car using the same weight file."
"Being camera agnostic means the network has to have a better sense of what an object looks like under all kinds of camera distortions"
"...fringe benefit of improved computational efficiency...just have the one set of weights you don’t have to constantly be swapping weight sets in and out of your GPU memory"
"This network is far larger than any vision NN I’ve seen publicly disclosed and I’m just reeling at the thought of how much data it must take to train it"
"The NN should be able to identify every object in every direction at distances up to hundreds of meters and also provide approximate instantaneous relative movement for all of those objects"
"As a neural network dork I couldn’t be more pleased"
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1051605802971267072

From the post:
Quote
Various V8 versions included networks for pillar and repeater cameras in the binaries but AFAIK nobody outside Tesla ever saw those networks in operation. Normal AP use on V8 seemed to only include the use of main and narrow for driving and the wide angle forward camera for rain sensing. In V9 it’s very clear that all cameras are being put to use for all the AP2 cars.

The basic camera NN (neural network) arrangement is an Inception V1 type CNN with L1/L2/L3ab/L4abcdefg layer arrangement (architecturally similar to V8 main/narrow camera up to end of inception blocks but much larger)
   ◦   about 5x as many weights as comparable portion of V8 net
   ◦   about 18x as much processing per camera (front/back)
The V9 network takes 1280x960 images with 3 color channels and 2 frames per camera from, for example, the main camera. That’s 1280x960x3x2 as an input, or 7.3M. The V8 main camera was 640x416x2 or 0.5M - 13x less data.

For perspective, V9 camera network is 10x larger and requires 200x more computation when compared to Google’s Inception V1 network from which V9 gets it’s underlying architectural concept. That’s processing *per camera* for the 4 front and back cameras. Side cameras are 1/4 the processing due to being 1/4 as many total pixels. With all 8 cameras being processed in this fashion it’s likely that V9 is straining the compute capability of the APE. The V8 network, by comparison, probably had lots of margin.

network outputs:
   ◦   V360 object decoder (multi level, processed only)
   ◦   back lane decoder (back camera plus final processed)
   ◦   side lane decoder (pillar/repeater cameras plus final processed)
   ◦   path prediction pp decoder (main/narrow/fisheye cameras plus final processed)
   ◦   “super lane” decoder (main/narrow/fisheye cameras plus final processed)

See the entire post by jimmy_d here:  https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3120699/


6-second Video clip of V9 in action, recognizing people, cars, and vans...:
“Tesla V9 is FREAKING NUTS. It shows everything around you!”
https://twitter.com/snazzyq/status/1049739808635940864
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 15, 2018, 06:27:47 PM
Quote
Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis.

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1028428116966879232

This was on August 12 just as Tesla production started to ramp to record high levels.

Before that he was giving exact numbers.

That's how people lie without lying. This is common in the anti-Tesla spheres as is common behavior in pro-Trump spheres and climate change denying spheres.

To me, they are all part of the same thing.

"Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis."

you are trying to tell me that the above is the best example you can find of what you are attacking as criminal behavior...? that's absurdly pathetic.

the liars are the Telsa bulls, who continue to stand behind Musk's impossible claims despite a clear track record of his claims being wildly off base. the idea that calling this out is criminal is insane.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 15, 2018, 09:31:14 PM
Personally I thought this entire article (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/14/tesla-lets-all-calm-down/) made total sense.

I liked the last part.

Quote
But don’t put too much faith in any one particular article. I won’t trust anything until we see what the Q3 results are, from Tesla itself. And yes, even that is open to interpretation.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 15, 2018, 09:38:21 PM
the liars are the Telsa bulls, who continue to stand behind Musk's impossible claims despite a clear track record of his claims being wildly off base. the idea that calling this out is criminal is insane.

And the shorts are?  Musk may be wildly overoptimistic, but his track record is that every single target, at every single company, has been met.  It might have taken 1,2 or 3 years longer than Musk wanted, but the record stands.  Every wild claim has, eventually, been met.

I understand why people back a bet.  I missed out, badly, in early 2013, when I thought of buying $3,000 worth of bitcoin, after a major fall, at just over $10 each.  The only reason I'm not kicking myself to death right now is that I would probably have bought them through MtGox and, after spending that, wound up with nothing.

There is money to be made betting on the wilder side.  Personally I find that somewhat more honest than betting on a company failing then spending the entire time talking the company down so that it falters.

But that's just me..
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 15, 2018, 09:45:38 PM
Personally I thought this entire article (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/14/tesla-lets-all-calm-down/) made total sense.
+1
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: sedziobs on October 15, 2018, 10:26:21 PM
To help maintain your resolve I will post short-side articles from time to time, though I might point out the most obvious flaws. To start, here's one from a few days ago by Bill Maurer.
Quote
The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
What does that mean?  Telsa does not lease the Model 3.  It doesn't offer its own financing either.  It simply retrieves lending offers from banks.  The rates on those have gone up due to a steadily increasing discount rate.  I don't see how that is Tesla's fault.

Anecdotally, Tesla offered me 3.75% from Wells Fargo.  I was able to get 3.00% through a local credit union.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 15, 2018, 11:13:41 PM

Finally, the doctor asks: "So why did you come here?"

"Here…I CAN complain!" "

http://chaimsteinmetz.blogspot.com/2013/06/we-didnt-get-here-by-complaining.html

sidd

sorry but that most certainly was a female patient, 90% chance ROFL......
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 15, 2018, 11:21:26 PM
Musk may be wildly overoptimistic, but his track record is that every single target, at every single company, has been met.

This is incredibly wrong. Does the solar roof exist? no. Does the Tesla auto taxi exist? no. Does Neuralink exist? no. Does Star Link exist? no. Did Tesla start producing 5k models 3s per week in dec 2017? no, and still not. When Musk said in 2011 that Tesla was forever done raising capital, did that hold true? super no. Does the HyperLoop work? no. Has the boring company shown any tunneling success? no. Did the NY state gigafactory work out as promised? not even close. Was the takeover of Solar City a benefit to Tesla? no. Is the Solar City business growing. no, it's shrinking. Did Musk fix Puerto Ricos power grid as promised? no. Did Musk create a workable solution for the cave rescue? no. Has Tesla been profitable since 2011 as Musk has regularly claimed??? no. Did Musk have financing secured to take Tesla private at $420 a share only contingent on a shareholder vote? no.

Can you please tell me what exactly you are referring to with his great track record? Can you please explain why you don't consider everything I listed here to be a target missed? If your answer is just, "well it's just a matter of timing", couldn't that be used to justify every lie ever told? Eventually everything will happen.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 15, 2018, 11:48:18 PM
Quote
The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
What does that mean?  Telsa does not lease the Model 3.  It doesn't offer its own financing either.  It simply retrieves lending offers from banks.  The rates on those have gone up due to a steadily increasing discount rate.  I don't see how that is Tesla's fault.

Anecdotally, Tesla offered me 3.75% from Wells Fargo.  I was able to get 3.00% through a local credit union.
Here is Bill Maurer from 3 months ago writing about these rate hikes. I have no direct knowledge of the matter, it could be just noise (or not).
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4184947-tesla-hikes-loan-rates (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4184947-tesla-hikes-loan-rates)
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 16, 2018, 12:15:04 AM
Quote
The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
What does that mean?  Telsa does not lease the Model 3.  It doesn't offer its own financing either.  It simply retrieves lending offers from banks.  The rates on those have gone up due to a steadily increasing discount rate.  I don't see how that is Tesla's fault.

Anecdotally, Tesla offered me 3.75% from Wells Fargo.  I was able to get 3.00% through a local credit union.

If Musk can see off the SEC then why couldn't he tell the Fed to cancel the rate hikes?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2018, 01:03:51 PM
Update re the TMC Full Self Driving write-up ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg177084.html#msg177084 )

Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9, impressive new capabilities, report says
https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-new-autopilot-neural-net-v9/

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/16/18, 3:36 AM
@ElectrekCo @FredericLambert To be clear, actual NN improvement is significantly overestimated in this article. V9.0 vs V8.1 is more like a ~400% increase in useful ops/sec due to enabling integrated GPU & better use of discrete GPU.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1052101050465808384

<< How much of a difference would the new Tesla chip make?
EM:  Somewhere between 500% & 2000%
<<< Aspirational timeline for the new chip?
EM: ~6 months before it is in all new production cars. No change to sensors. This is simple replacement of the Autopilot computer. Will be done free of charge for those who ordered full self-driving.
<<< Cool! Have you guys decided on pricing for those who *didn't* order full self-driving?
EM:  I believe it’s $5k

Edit:  more on the Neural Net chip and the people who designed it:
Tesla aims for new neural net computer in production in 6 months, results in 500-2000% increase in ops/sec, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/10/16/tesla-neural-net-computer-production-elon-musk/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 02:04:16 PM
Check out this "green" factory. If you look closely you can tell that every inch of the roof is covered in solar panels. And if you really try you can see all the employees walking and biking to work from their nearby residences! Synergies!
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 02:30:55 PM
I've come across some interesting information that I'm trying to confirm/deny. Apparently the whole Tesla Auto Pilot learning from actual real world driving thing is just another Muskian scam / Teslie. Apparently the cars neither store nor trasmit data about driving. I've tried to figure out the veracity of this claim but to no avail. Any one have any info / thoughts?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 02:53:27 PM
Can a Tesla Bull please give me your theory as to why Tesla has decreased their production since the end on June if the claim that they have 420k reservations wasn't fraudulent?

Also, how doesn't the lack of continued production ramp bode for profitability and ability to repay upcoming loans?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Buddy on October 16, 2018, 04:40:40 PM
One thing to keep in mind from an “accounting perspective” .... is that Tesla has been incurring those R&D costs for their autonomous driving chips, and that R&D cost to develop their autonomous cups/software is EXPENSED as they incur the costs.

So while Tesla is taking the gamble that they can create a very good autonomous chip/system, if they succeed, they will likely gain some cost advantage going forward.  Over the last few years when Tesla was selling far fewer cars, part of Tesla’s “cost per vehicle” included the R&D cost for autonomous driving.  Now .... it wasn’t shown for financial purposes as a COGS (it was shown as a single line item as “R&D”, but it WAS a cost that was immediately expensed.

As Tesla sells more and more cars, their total “cost per vehicle” including their R&D WILL GO DOWN because the R&D is spread over a larger number of cars.  Of course the significant issue is whether or not Tesla’s chip/system is better or not, and by how much.


Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2018, 05:17:30 PM
U.S. judge approves settlement between SEC, Tesla and Musk
Reuters. October 16, 2018, 2:27 PM GMT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-judge-approves-settlement-between-141542192.html

Edit.  More:

“In this case, the SEC considered multiple factors in determining appropriate civil penalties. These included the seriousness of the alleged violations, the market impact caused by the alleged conduct, and Defendants’ financial means, but also countervailing factors such as Defendants’ willingness to settle these actions promptly, Defendants’ apparent lack of pecuniary gain, and the limited temporal scope of the conduct.”
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-elon-musk-sec-settlement-approval-us-judge/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 16, 2018, 09:03:44 PM
That money should have been spent on things like medium density housing, public transport, and other inclusive sustainability projects.  But instead we keep on building expensive hunks of metal for rich people and claiming it as saving the world.

And there your political idealism comes crashing down around your ears.  Let me give you an analogy.

My son was sitting at the dinner table and venting about stop and search in the UK.  He said, "you told us to go and get the knives and the acid, we did an analysis and found that 90% of the problem was with black youth so we stopped and searched black youth.  You called us racists.  So Ferck you you're on your own".

Stop and search in the UK is a political issue but should be a simple policing matter.

What is the point I am trying to make?

Who are the problem with CO2 emissions?  Those who live in cities and take public transport?  Not a bit of it.  The problem is rich people driving expensive hunks of metal.

So when someone else analyses the problem, comes up with the correct answer to resolve the problem, then actually goes about it, expect them to be a bit irked when someone else pops up and derides them for no other reason than their "politics" wants a different solution.

If you want to go rant about "public transport" and where the best "benefit" could be made socially, go to China, go to Russia, go and see just how an authoritarian "socialist" government is good for the planet.

Then go and look up "enlightened self interest".

Tesla is doing what Tesla needs to do in order to transition from a start up to a fully functional multi national manufacturer of EV vehicles and carbon neutral technology.

Your view?  "You're not doing it the way I want to do it because someone is going to make money out of it".

There is a place for this view but it is not in the real world of mitigating the impact to the environment of fossil fuel burning.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 16, 2018, 09:12:24 PM
This is incredibly wrong. Does the solar roof exist? no. Does the Tesla auto taxi exist? no. Does Neuralink exist? no. Does Star Link exist? no. Did Tesla start producing 5k models 3s per week in dec 2017? no

You snipped the part where I said it might take "years" to deliver on his stated goal.  Then you push a statement made for 2017???


Sorry that won't wash.

StarLink is in progress, a Tesla Taxi requires fully autonomous driving which is only going to be available at speeds with the new processors that Tesla hired the staff to design.  Neuralink?  Again, time.

Now tell me this.  Did SpaceX produce low cost reusable launchers which don't fail?  Did Tesla successfully transition from low volume premium cars to high volume cars which have the potential to reach the mass market?

Musk never stops trying and keeps on pushing till his goals are met.  I find this much more appealing than setting a low standard and failing, often miserably, to meet it.  Musk sets the barrier impossibly high, then gets there in the end.

This is bad?  Wrong?  Not in my world.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 16, 2018, 09:19:48 PM
I've come across some interesting information that I'm trying to confirm/deny. Apparently the whole Tesla Auto Pilot learning from actual real world driving thing is just another Muskian scam / Teslie. Apparently the cars neither store nor trasmit data about driving. I've tried to figure out the veracity of this claim but to no avail. Any one have any info / thoughts?

If it doesn't, it will be the fist car, since the advent of the ECU, which monitors and stores diagnostic data, which does not.

The Tesla's don't even have discrete single purpose ECU style CPU's on board with EEprom burned software.  Tesla's have ROM, RAM and flash storage in quite large capacities to receive, hold and update the onboard system.

In terms of the data required the Tesla has thousands of times more storage space than is actually required to do this monitoring.

Ford was convicted, in the UK, of illegally accessing the ECU data from millions of UK Ford vehicles to try and determine how they were being driven; in order to produce more resilient cars that met the market demand.

Tesla is a fusion of a tech and manufacturing company.  You are telling me they are not gathering this data?

Whilst the possibility is there, it is remote enough to be vanishingly small.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 16, 2018, 09:31:22 PM
As Tesla sells more and more cars, their total “cost per vehicle” including their R&D WILL GO DOWN because the R&D is spread over a larger number of cars.  Of course the significant issue is whether or not Tesla’s chip/system is better or not, and by how much.

If you read the latest news on the launch of the Huawei Mate 20 pro and the new Kirin processor inside it, there are some very interesting figures around the AI chip baked into the silicon and the capabilities of the image processing.

It was stated in frames per minute, which looked like an impressively large number, especially as it was double or even triple other mainline phones.  Until you divide it by 60 and come to 75 frames per second.

If you think about it, Tesla is stating 300 frames per second.  Firstly that is impressive.  But if you think a little deeper, 25 frames per second is considered sufficient quality motion video for a movie and should be sufficient for an AI analysing the driving conditions.

300 divided by 25 gives you 12.  In other words the Tesla silicon has the ability to render and process 12 cameras running at 25 frames per second.  Or 6 camera's running at video game rates of 50 frames per second.

The Model S and Model X each have 8 camera's, one of which is rear facing.

This is not sounding to me like technology which is missing the mark.  It sounds like technology designed from the ground up to do the job.

Time will tell.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 16, 2018, 09:34:51 PM
Can a Tesla Bull please give me your theory as to why Tesla has decreased their production since the end on June if the claim that they have 420k reservations wasn't fraudulent?

How about the fact that the chart you are presenting is not an official chart but works from several metrics including Tesla owners wishing to register their VIN.

You will note, from the line, that it totally failed towards the end of September and had to be manually adjusted from Tesla communications on their actual production and sales.

Now, of course, you might still believe that Tesla lied about their production.  Then again, fresh from a brush with the SEC, that would be somewhat akin to complete lunacy.  Whilst there may be a reason to believe that of Musk, to a degree, there is no reason to believe the entire board has taken leave of their senses.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 16, 2018, 09:39:55 PM

If you want to go rant about "public transport" and where the best "benefit" could be made socially, go to China, go to Russia, go and see just how an authoritarian "socialist" government is good for the planet.



The Chinese I speak to view Canadian public transportation as antiquated, and the ubiquitous bullet trains as liberating and very "21st Century". I've no basis for arguing that our system is in any way comparable, let alone superior, to theirs.


As far as Russia having an "authoritarian socialist government", are you referring to the Post Soviet Union Russian Federation? - perhaps you were using "socialist" as the American Right uses it when describing the Canadian (and British) health care systems?


I grew up riding nationalized (socialist) rail systems. Was your experience so different?
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 09:52:34 PM
I've come across some interesting information that I'm trying to confirm/deny. Apparently the whole Tesla Auto Pilot learning from actual real world driving thing is just another Muskian scam / Teslie. Apparently the cars neither store nor trasmit data about driving. I've tried to figure out the veracity of this claim but to no avail. Any one have any info / thoughts?

If it doesn't, it will be the fist car, since the advent of the ECU, which monitors and stores diagnostic data, which does not.

The Tesla's don't even have discrete single purpose ECU style CPU's on board with EEprom burned software.  Tesla's have ROM, RAM and flash storage in quite large capacities to receive, hold and update the onboard system.

In terms of the data required the Tesla has thousands of times more storage space than is actually required to do this monitoring.

Ford was convicted, in the UK, of illegally accessing the ECU data from millions of UK Ford vehicles to try and determine how they were being driven; in order to produce more resilient cars that met the market demand.

Tesla is a fusion of a tech and manufacturing company.  You are telling me they are not gathering this data?

Whilst the possibility is there, it is remote enough to be vanishingly small.

That is mildly informative, but I don't think you understand the type of data necessary for improving aspiring self-driving tech. It is all about object recognition. So basically the car needs to be storing all the footage it takes, all the time. This isn't my specialty which is why I'm asking about it, but it seems to me that we would be talking about terabytes of data very regularly. Obviously it would make more sense to upload this data to Tesla HQ rather than just store it. I mean it has to all get centralized at some point anyways (which could be done during maintenance I guess), but I have never heard anything along these lines mentioned and it seems like something that would be discussed. Also, considering the history of Tesla saying whatever suites it best at any given moment, regardless of veracity, I find the "learning auto pilot" claims highly dubious.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 10:01:38 PM
Can a Tesla Bull please give me your theory as to why Tesla has decreased their production since the end on June if the claim that they have 420k reservations wasn't fraudulent?

How about the fact that the chart you are presenting is not an official chart but works from several metrics including Tesla owners wishing to register their VIN.

You will note, from the line, that it totally failed towards the end of September and had to be manually adjusted from Tesla communications on their actual production and sales.

Now, of course, you might still believe that Tesla lied about their production.  Then again, fresh from a brush with the SEC, that would be somewhat akin to complete lunacy.  Whilst there may be a reason to believe that of Musk, to a degree, there is no reason to believe the entire board has taken leave of their senses.

"somewhat akin to complete lunacy."

This is exactly what I believe. I mean, this was happening at the same time that Musk invented the term "factory-gated" to be able to claim he met his goal of 5k per week for a week. He also attacked the SEC days after agreeing to a settlement that he had just walked away from (a better settlement) a few days earlier. THAT IS LUNACY. Announcing a solar roof tile that doesn't exist, lunacy. Announcing a go private deal locked up, just cuz, lunacy of epic proportions. I could go on and on, but I'd be reprimanded for my repetitious postings.

As for the board: It is mostly ppl beholden to Musk and they have never showed any sign of reigning Musk in. The let him buy Solar City which is sinking Tesla, and most notably, they didn't take his Twitter away when he decided to publicly accuse someone of being a pedophile just because they insulted him.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 16, 2018, 10:39:06 PM
Terry I was referring to the incredible environmental damage done in the name of "socialism" by both the USSR and China. Something China keeps on doing to this day.

They may have a modern transport system, in their special economic zones, but they also have some of the highest levels of pollution in the world.  Witness virtually having to shut down commerce to host the Olympics.

I, also, grew up on nationalised (socialist) rail systems.  The Labour party in the UK nationalised the railways after WWII.  They sucked.  People very rapidly forget just how bad those services were once they have a "fat cat" business to blame.  I stood from London to Newcastle several times on our wonderful nationalised rail services...  I saw quite a lot of long distance rail in the Army, as they issued rail warrants in preference to anything else as it cost them nothing.

The point I was making is that some wonderful utopian "socialist" idea does not mean we're going to solve the problem.  We have to target the biggest emitters first and then get to the rest later.  Those emitters don't live next to public transport which will take them to work.

In fact, in London, one of the biggest problems are what they call "Chelsea tractors".  Otherwise known as Range Rovers and Porsche Cayenne's used for taking the children to school.  Tell me, honestly, does London lack public transport?  The Tube is electric, almost all rail in and around London is electric and even the new routemaster busses are electric backed by a diesel generator.  They drop into electric within seconds of stopping or travelling slowly.

What, in the UK, do we need to do in order to reduce emissions?  Get those shiny, expensive, gas guzzling, vehicles off the roads and onto EV.

But let's not do the sensible thing.  No, let's spend billions on a fantastically clean Electrical Bus network for London to get rid of all those busses.  So they can mess up the traffic for all the Chelsea Tractors.  That would be a wonderful "political" solution.

Sorry my sarcasm meter is off the gauge.

When it comes to cleaning up our act on CO2, neither "Socialist" politics nor "Green" politics count.  Only less CO2 counts.  In the UK we "recycle" glass.  We produce 100m tonnes more CO2, recycling the glass, than we would produce if we just made new glass.

Now that is "Green Madness" and "Socialism gone crazy".  But it sells well.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 16, 2018, 11:10:26 PM

If you want to go rant about "public transport" and where the best "benefit" could be made socially, go to China, go to Russia, go and see just how an authoritarian "socialist" government is good for the planet.



The Chinese I speak to view Canadian public transportation as antiquated, and the ubiquitous bullet trains as liberating and very "21st Century". I've no basis for arguing that our system is in any way comparable, let alone superior, to theirs.


As far as Russia having an "authoritarian socialist government", are you referring to the Post Soviet Union Russian Federation? - perhaps you were using "socialist" as the American Right uses it when describing the Canadian (and British) health care systems?


I grew up riding nationalized (socialist) rail systems. Was your experience so different?
Terry

you see that exactly right. as a 7 years shenzhen resident i can say that chinese public transport is the only one world wide that i enjoy across the board, this included subways as well as trains (see it as a pleasure to use) buses are buses, modern or not, stop and go and/or full of commuters it's never really fun.

only downside which is mostly based on customs is that one needs a passport (and a visa) to travel between cities but then as i said, it's not a problem, it's just something we're not accustomed to ;)

during the 12 years i was in nova scotia and frequently visiting toronto and montreal, i'd say canadian public transport depends a lot locally, in places it's horrible in others it's very much ok.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 16, 2018, 11:28:03 PM
The Judge approved the settlement with the SEC today.
The share price went up to $276
There are other lawsuits from aggrieved shareholders but I guess we are talking months & years before a court case.

I think TESLA is making an error in not getting the 35k model 3 out on the street. All the news is about auto drive and other tech stuff.

Meanwhile Hyundai will be selling a 250 mile range EV that with the FED credit might be just 20k to the customer. OK, not as clever or as pretty as a TESLA but for the average Joe or Jane............?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: TerryM on October 16, 2018, 11:47:55 PM
I think we (I) have slid far from this thread's purpose.


On different thread sidd has posted of the free bus service in Dunkirk and how well it seems to be working.


This is something that I think might be applicable in many locals. At first, with diesel buses it will save CO2 as ridership is improved. As it modernizes by adding E-Buses, trolleys, subways & light rail the resulting savings in CO2 could be enormous.


When public transportation is seen as something only the poor use, it's a hard sell, similar to welfare doctors in charity hospitals. When it graduates to the transportation system used by all it becomes like Canadian hospitals. Not a cheap substitute for private care, but a subsidized system that everyone (almost) takes great pride in.


Locking yourself away while on a solitary drive to and from work is something that just about everyone complains of. As a friend about his commute.
If it were possible to hop onto a bus where you enjoyed the company of your neighbors, caught up on local news and gossip before proceeding on to work or home, people might grow to enjoy these jaunts. Stay at home moms, if they still exist, could gab with the neighbors as they're whisked to and from residential to retail areas.


I'll continue this on some other thread, but I think free (socialized) transportation is an idea whose time may have come.
Terry
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 17, 2018, 01:44:13 AM
I think TESLA is making an error in not getting the 35k model 3 out on the street. All the news is about auto drive and other tech stuff.

What's more likely, Tesla is making an error in not getting out due to being silly or something OR that they have almost ZERO (if not negative) margin selling the 35K model, so they are better off staying the current course?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Archimid on October 17, 2018, 03:32:50 AM
IN DEFENSE OF ELON MUSK

https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a23508636/defense-of-elon-musk/

Quote
Elon Musk is an engineer at heart, a tinkerer, a problem-solver—the kind of person Popular Mechanics has always championed—and the problems he’s trying to solve are hard. Really hard. He could find better ways to spend his money, that’s for sure. And yet there he is, trying to build gasless cars and build reusable rockets and build tunnels that make traffic go away. For all his faults and unpredictability, we need him out there doing that. We need people who have ideas. We need people who take risks.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 17, 2018, 03:47:09 AM
I get that what Musk is trying to do is theoretically good. But I don't that justifies lying about ability to do such things. It seems like many many people are willing to give him a pass because they think the only way to get enough support to make these things happen is to lie about the costs, the timelines, the capabilities....but I think that logic sucks. I think long term it is unsustainable and actually detrimental to the supposed cause.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 04:07:55 AM
Does this article count as anti-Tesla propaganda?  ;D
Man who has owned six Jaguars and dislikes Tesla takes ownership of first Jaguar I-PACE in U.S.

Jaguar Delivers First I-PACE In U.S. – Owner Not A Fan Of Tesla’s Style
https://insideevs.com/jaguar-delivers-first-i-pace-usa



Meanwhile, and somewhere else entirely, a Model 3 owner takes to the road:

“Commute home. Passed on left by white model 3 as I take highway on ramp. When I merge there are two red model 3s. This is OHIO. Wake up ICE car makers!”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1052301555158933509
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 17, 2018, 12:33:58 PM
@CGasparino
SCOOP: Bankers are approaching Tesla officials/board members with financing ideas as debt payments come due--sources; Tesla officials indicate to bankers no near-term financing pressure despite pending convertible bond payments-sources more NOW

So basically, bankers are trying to finance Tesla (probably by taking over the company from shareholders cuz...there is blood in the water), but BoD/Musk refuse the "help"...

I can only guess that they know there are too big of problems to reveal and the deal wouldn't go through or they would be in legal trouble if light gets shined on certain issues (which aligns quite well with the lack on insider sales due to knowledge of MNPI). It's also possible they have some sorta super plan where there is a magic injection on liquidity but I can't imagine where it could come from and I believe there is no historical precedent.

<snip; N.>

skabooshka is claiming Tesla is cannibalizing model 3s for parts, and he has a thread laying out his theory. I won't link cuz apparently twitter is an illegitimate source of information.

Musk said yesterday (paraphrasing) "aw, shucks, i just realized we forgot to invest in service centers...will totally get on it in 3-6 months." I would have thought that being about a year behind on the production trajectory would solve this sorta issue  ;)

Finally, the belle of the ball...

https://www.dropbox.com/s/doe1755m6gyztnc/Tesla%20Executive%20Departures%20List.pdf?dl=0
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 01:34:43 PM
Tesla successfully secures 9.3-million sq-ft land for Gigafactory 3
Quote
Recent reports from local Chinese news outlets indicate that Tesla has successfully acquired a 9.3 million-square-foot plot of land at the Shanghai Lingang Equipment Industrial Zone. The area will be the site of the electric car maker’s upcoming Gigafactory 3, which is expected to produce 500,000 electric cars per year when complete.

The land transfer agreement was signed on Wednesday, October 17, with Tesla representatives including VP of worldwide sales Robin Ren sealing the deal with the Shanghai Economics and Information Committee, the Shanghai Lingang Area Development Administration, and the Lingang Group. Addressing the agreement, Ren noted that securing the site bodes well for Tesla’s mission as a whole. 

“Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy not only through all-electric vehicles, but also scalable clean energy generation and storage products. Securing this site in Shanghai, Tesla’s first Gigafactory outside of the United States, is an important milestone for what will be our next advanced, sustainably developed manufacturing site,” Ren noted. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-9-3-million-sq-ft-land-shanghai/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: BeeKnees on October 17, 2018, 02:09:39 PM
I think TESLA is making an error in not getting the 35k model 3 out on the street. All the news is about auto drive and other tech stuff.

What's more likely, Tesla is making an error in not getting out due to being silly or something OR that they have almost ZERO (if not negative) margin selling the 35K model, so they are better off staying the current course?

Could it be that the margin on the cheaper car isn't viable until production reaches a certain level?
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 02:20:11 PM
IN DEFENSE OF ELON MUSK

https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a23508636/defense-of-elon-musk/

Quote
Elon Musk is an engineer at heart, a tinkerer, a problem-solver—the kind of person Popular Mechanics has always championed—and the problems he’s trying to solve are hard. Really hard. He could find better ways to spend his money, that’s for sure. And yet there he is, trying to build gasless cars and build reusable rockets and build tunnels that make traffic go away. For all his faults and unpredictability, we need him out there doing that. We need people who have ideas. We need people who take risks.

Thanks, Archimid — you beat me to it.  :)

The article made quite an impression on this man.  ;)
https://twitter.com/abysaalman/status/1052013400576970752
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 02:47:40 PM
I think TESLA is making an error in not getting the 35k model 3 out on the street. All the news is about auto drive and other tech stuff.

What's more likely, Tesla is making an error in not getting out due to being silly or something OR that they have almost ZERO (if not negative) margin selling the 35K model, so they are better off staying the current course?

Could it be that the margin on the cheaper car isn't viable until production reaches a certain level?

Entirely possible.  Potential margin for the $35k model is well documented — but in the short term, the margin on the entire mix of Tesla products is what matters.

In 2019 $TSLA could have 25% profit margins on 10k cars (Model S3X) a week with an ASP [all models] of around 70k, That's nearly 10B in profits, not including Energy or Servicing. ...
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1032378947852365825

Will The Tesla Model 3 Really Achieve A 30% Profit Margin?
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-30-profit-margin/

Tesla's gross margin on the Model 3 could be a game changer in the auto industry
https://electrek.co/2017/05/08/tesla-model-3-gross-margin/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 17, 2018, 03:21:44 PM
Could it be that the margin on the cheaper car isn't viable until production reaches a certain level?

My personal take is that the $35k version does not provide enough additional profit to allow Tesla to keep expanding into new things.  So it will, eventually, be produced as an additional product alongside the more profitable one's.

Right now the Gigafactory is not producing enough batteries for the $35k predicted volume.  It needs more investment and some more time.

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 04:24:17 PM
Apparently the Munro gag order is over!  Bloomberg has a rather balanced article. (Link below.)

I will note that Musk explained the “excessively heavy” use of metal was used, in part, to ensure the highest possible safety rating for the car.  Which clearly it did. :)

ValueAnalyst wrote:
Quote
"The Model 3 that got the tear-down treatment was a $50k version with black paint. Munro estimated the total cost to build was $34.7k. Adding in logistics costs & a generous assumption for labor, Munro estimates that gross profit margins would exceed 30%."
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1052546646591135744

… this is a new interview, and it clarifies "gross margin" and price used in estimating that margin etc. Worth a read.

Note also that all of these learnings will next be applied to Model S/X, which had already closed in on 30% GAAP margin as of Q2. Then comes Model Y. This is all before battery pack cost declines from $150/kWh to below $100/kWh by 2020, so another 4-5% improvement across SX3Y.

The difference in [Long Range] and Standard cost to build is $5k, without *any* improvements and the likely declines in battery cost. Tesla will have no problem reaching and sustaining 30% gross margin with Model 3 in 2019.

Tearing Apart Teslas to Find Elon Musk’s Best and Worst Decisions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-17/tearing-apart-teslas-to-find-elon-musk-s-best-and-worst-decisions
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 17, 2018, 05:17:42 PM
Potential margin for the $35k model is well documented — but in the short term, the margin on the entire mix of Tesla products is what matters.

In 2019 $TSLA could have 25% profit margins on 10k cars (Model S3X) a week with an ASP [all models] of around 70k, That's nearly 10B in profits, not including Energy or Servicing. ...
I am sure Tesla can get a high gross margin on the higher-priced versions of the M3. But I highly doubt it can sustain ~8k/week of Model 3 sales at ~$60k ASP until the end of 2019 (so that it can get to the 10k/week at $70k claimed above). I believe M3 ASP will have to come down over time to $40-50k in order to support the higher volume.
Consequently, gross margin could be a little lower than 25%, though in 2019 manufacturing should be more efficient. I would say $5-7B in annual gross automotive profit is much more achievable than $9.1B (the "nearly 10B" mentioned above). Still an amazing achievement of course.
Note: There is also the question whether Tesla can scale up from the current 6-7k/week to a sustainable average 10k/week over the entire year of 2019, but with proper management that seems achievable.

Regarding the "base $35k" version - the short side claim is that Tesla is unable to make a profit at that price, since its automation plans did not fully materialize and the labor cost is higher than anticipated. I do tend to believe it will be launched in the first half of 2019 and be profitable, though probably with a lower profit than originally envisioned.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 07:31:29 PM
Potential margin for the $35k model is well documented — but in the short term, the margin on the entire mix of Tesla products is what matters.

In 2019 $TSLA could have 25% profit margins on 10k cars (Model S3X) a week with an ASP [all models] of around 70k, That's nearly 10B in profits, not including Energy or Servicing. ...
I am sure Tesla can get a high gross margin on the higher-priced versions of the M3. But I highly doubt it can sustain ~8k/week of Model 3 sales at ~$60k ASP until the end of 2019 (so that it can get to the 10k/week at $70k claimed above). I believe M3 ASP will have to come down over time to $40-50k in order to support the higher volume.
...

If your doubt is about sustained demand at the higher price points, consider that Tesla can open to global markets with only the more expensive models, just as it did in the US.  It can balance the ASP as needed until the desired profit, and the 10k/wk rate, are achieved.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 07:49:23 PM
@CGasparino
SCOOP: Bankers are approaching Tesla officials/board members with financing ideas as debt payments come due--sources; Tesla officials indicate to bankers no near-term financing pressure despite pending convertible bond payments-sources more NOW
..

“SCOOP: Banks make $ by loaning money and often reach out to give loans for that purpose. (Checks mail - letters from banks wanting me to get a second mortgage, car loan, home improvement loan....)”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1052285280936448005

Of course banks are jumping all over each other to get Tesla to take a loan.  Because they know Tesla is raking in money!  Banks would not be so quick to offer funds if they thought the company was going bankrupt.

Tesla has said for months (quarterly results calls) that the upcoming payments would be paid with internal funds.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 17, 2018, 08:57:48 PM
Of course banks are jumping all over each other to get Tesla to take a loan.  Because they know Tesla is raking in money!  Banks would not be so quick to offer funds if they thought the company was going bankrupt.

Tesla has said for months (quarterly results calls) that the upcoming payments would be paid with internal funds.

More likely, banks are jumping at the idea of taking Tesla's assets.

Tesla is not raking in money. They are behind on payments to suppliers. They are behind on delivering cars to customers who have paid in full. They are behind on parts manufacturing for existing cars. They are behind on returning money from cancelled reservations. They are being sued left, right, and center. Apparently they are embarking on a car carrier manufacturing quest which will take money. Apparently they are about to build a bunch more service centers which will take money. There is no logical path to Tesla having the $1.7 ish billion they need in the next 12 weeks from internal funds.

The problem is, they probably aren't legally allowed to raise funds. If they could, they would have already. But they can't, so they haven't.  There are several billion dollars of capital needed for funding projects that are supposed to be coming to market in the next few years. The costs associated are largely up front costs. They should have the money for these projects NOW. Even if you believe that Tesla is going to sell so many model 3s that they will be profitable forevermore, they should have raised capital already.

There are now likely 2 reasons they can't raise: 1) whatever the MNPI ("The Secret") is that has prevented insider sales and capital raises for the past year; 2) Musk's continued role as CEO probably prevents the company from raising (under Dodd Frank) in light of the recent SEC settlement. Both together and they clearly cannot raise. The evidence is overwhelming. Hence the statement that they do not need it, despite OBVIOUSLY NEEDING TO.

Note that "financing ideas" is a much broader concept than a no-stings-attached loan. If I offered to pay off the final monthly payment of your mortgage in exchange for co-ownership of your house, that is a "financing idea". If you are desperate enough, and can't pay any other way, and will lose the house entirely otherwise, maybe you like this idea. Me pitching you this idea is in no way a validation of your strong earning capacity. It is actually the exact opposite.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 17, 2018, 09:28:50 PM
If Tesla is raking in the money, they must be torching it with "not-flamethrowers". Joker style cash burning. Cuz they clearly aren't using it to pay their bills...
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 17, 2018, 09:39:20 PM
"Holmes’s tragic error was touting financial projections that never materialized based on technology that she never delivered."

Think Full-Self-Driving or $35k Model 3 or Solar Roof Tile. Tesla has been taking payment for FSD for 2 years, and still has no idea when it will create this revolutionary tech. $35K model 3 deposits have been taken for the past 19 months, and no idea when this revolutionary performance care will be available. Solar Roof Tile deposits have been taken for 17 months, and this tech is still totally unproven.

"she was forced to mortgage all of Theranos’s assets to Fortress Investment Group in return for a desperately needed $100 million loan"

This is an example of a "financing idea" like those currently being floated to Tesla.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-last-days-of-theranos-the-financials-were-as-overhyped-as-the-blood-tests-2018-10-16
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 09:41:33 PM
Tesla is building an empire with Model 3 drive units, custom chips, and loyal customers
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-empire-model-3-drive-units-custom-chips-loyal-customers/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 17, 2018, 09:48:04 PM
Remember when Musk said that his Alien Dreadnought factory was going to be making model 3s so precisely that if you found a measurement slightly off between cars, it meant your ruler was wrong?  Turns out, that like everything else, this was just something Musk liked the sound of and had nothing to back it up. The Alien DreadNOT turned out to be a industry lagging production endeavor mismanaged at every step. Sometimes it needed its mentally challenged cousin The Tent to help out with production. 86% rework rates resulted. Quality control was an outrageous outlier in the industry (not in a good way). And to top it all off, they put the car together differently every time....we are all going to need new rulers.

(Some will also need a need Cult-Leader/Savior/Hero)

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-find-when-you-take-apart-a-tesla-rich-benoit-2018-10

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 12:40:04 AM
“Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X.“
- Tesla Q3 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

83,500 sales x $75,000 ASP x 20% ave. margin = $1,252,500,000 revenue. Conservatively.  Just in Q3.  Just from the cars.  And Q4 will be much higher.

We’ll see the official numbers in 21 days.


Edit: never mind!  Wall Street estimates $6.1 Billion Q3 revenue.

Quote
Tesla Q3 Revenue Estimates:

Wall Street Avg: $6.1 billion
@ValueAnalyst1 $7.1 billion
https://twitter.com/teslaopinion/status/1052375315165540352
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 18, 2018, 12:58:47 AM
“Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X.“
- Tesla Q3 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

83,500 sales x $75,000 ASP x 20% ave. margin = $1,252,500,000 revenue. Conservatively.  Just in Q3.  Just from the cars.  And Q4 will be much higher.

We’ll see the official numbers in 21 days.

"20% ave. margin"

That was their margin last quarter while selling a much higher proportion of the higher margin models X and S. So no, that is not conservative. It is actually super optimistic.

"$1,252,500,000 revenue"

That's not what revenue is. You mean gross margin.

The problem is that in Q2 they spent $1.25 billion on R&D and administrative nonsense. So, there goes all your "profit". Conservatively. It should have been obvious that they won't turn a profit when they dropped all mention on it in the most recent guidance.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 12:12:16 PM
The car Munro examined is the least expensive model currently available.  Performance models (half of all orders early on) and AP and FSD software provide significantly more revenue.

Quote
The Model 3 that got the tear-down treatment was a $50,000 version with a black paint job. Munro estimated the total cost to build was $34,700. Adding in logistics costs and a generous assumption for labor, Munro estimates that gross profit margins would exceed 30 percent.

A cheaper version of the Model 3 examined by his team would cost less than $30,000 to build, Munro said, because the smaller battery is less expensive and some other equipment would come out of the car.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-17/tearing-apart-teslas-to-find-elon-musk-s-best-and-worst-decisions

Greg Wester (@gwestr) 10/17/18, 7:49 PM
Bloomberg reports today that the $50k version of Model 3 has 30% gross margin. The $82k version likely has 55% gross margin. It turns out adding a front motor only costs $600 LOL. $tslaq
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1052708236653092866

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/17/18, 10:25 AM
The "$50k version" estimated to command 30%+ gross margin, LR+PUP, excluded high-margin options.
Further, #Tesla increased #Model3 ASP from $56k in Q2 to $60k+ in Q3, with minimal incremental cost per unit, further increasing margin potential.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1052566230744350720
The difference in LR and Standard cost to build is $5k, without *any* improvements and the likely declines in battery cost. Tesla will have no problem reaching and sustaining 30% gross margin with Model 3 in 2019.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 12:39:54 PM
There are five ways Tesla can pay off debt.
Quote
Recently, there was a misinformed article from Linette Lopez of Business Insider titled “Tesla needs over $1 billion in cash over the next 6 months, and Wall Street is going nuts figuring out where it’s going to come from.” I am writing this piece to refute what was said.
Tesla's "Impossible" Task #9: Paying Off Debt In 2018 & 2019
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/17/teslas-impossible-task-9-paying-off-debt-in-2018-2019/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 18, 2018, 12:59:06 PM
I didn't feel it was a great debunking, as it didn't delve into the actual cash needed to repay. I think Tesla's preferred option is to use a combination of some positive cash flow from operations (finally not negative), existing cash, and existing credit lines. This all needs to be added up and compared to needed payments, as it was added in the original article in a devious way:
Quote
As of June 30, Tesla was still holding around $2.4 billion in cash, $942 million of which are customer deposits for the Model 3. That leaves the company with $1.4 billion excluding deposits.

And it has expenses coming due. In November the company needs to shell out $230 million for a convertible bond payment. And by the end of the year, it needs to have an additional $920 million in the bank to pay a loan due in March. It also has a small $157 million non-recourse loan due in December.

Add that all together and you have an ugly scenario playing out on Tesla's balance sheet, and in that scenario Tesla's $1.4 billion in cash shrinks down to just over $60 million in cash, Model 3 deposits aside.
Ignoring the free loan of customer deposits of almost 1 billion, they get that Tesla is missing 1 billion. Easily debunked IMHO.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 04:18:30 PM
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/16/18, 3:44 PM
I'll be surprised if $TSLA doesn't pay converts off *IN HARD CASH* within three weeks maybe, six weeks definitely.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1052284286836113408
<< Shorts created liquidity FUD to drive down stock, but some bankers took the bait thought the FUD is real. Do they understand Tesla is having $14B+ revenue in Q3 and Q4, and much more next year? The spending is nothing compared with this kind of revenue.

Starlight Energies (@Starlight_Energ) 10/16/18, 6:15 PM
Form 10-Q for Q218
As of June 30, 2018, these milestones probable of achievement:
Total revenue of $20.0 billion; ...
Adjusted EBITDA of $3.0 billion.
These are probably all 2018 figures
i could only find ~$600MM of debts coming due in 11/18 - 12/18
https://twitter.com/starlight_energ/status/1052322106472427520

<< SPECULATION- someone purchases a gigafactory to be built and ran by Tesla. Cash up front.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 04:24:51 PM
The Tesla FUD is strong these days:

Bloomberg: Elon Musk’s big China play is coming at a bad time as the world’s top car market slows

Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 10/18/18, 12:59 AM
Umm. What?! EVs were 5.1% of all China sales in September. @Tesla's China play is coming at exactly the right time.
China's ICE market is tanking because customers are waiting to buy Teslas and other EVs.
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1052786155064778752

——
The enemy of my enemy is my friend....

Kim Paquette (@kimpaquette) 10/17/18, 9:46 PM
In my feed just now. Why is Exxon Mobile promoting anti- Tesla EV articles from Bloomberg?  ::)
#FUD #shady
https://twitter.com/kimpaquette/status/1052737577466368002
(Image below.  Another example in the comments.)

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: NeilT on October 18, 2018, 04:37:00 PM
Greg Wester (@gwestr) 10/17/18, 7:49 PM
Bloomberg reports today that the $50k version of Model 3 has 30% gross margin. The $82k version likely has 55% gross margin. It turns out adding a front motor only costs $600 LOL.

 I read the Bloomberg article on the Model 3 teardown.  I also looked through the estimates of costs of the $50k version of the Model 3 and the $35k version.

In short, Tesla is, according to Munro, making a profit on the Model 3 and that with a few manufacturing changes, something which happens on any model with maturity, the $35k Model 3 will also make a profit.

Whilst the analysis of what Tesla is doing right now shows that there are significant gains in productivity and manufacturing costs to be made, it also shows that Tesla is already making more profit on a Model 3 than any normal mass market car.  Granted the mass market car will sell closer to the $35k level and the Tesla is selling closer to $55k on average.  However the message is pretty clear.  Tesla is not making a loss on these cars and the more of these cars Tesla makes the more profit it will make.  Eventually reaching break even and then an operating profit.

Taking Munro’s estimate that the Model 3 at $50k will deliver more than 30% gross profit, even then taking an average of $55k, with 30%, we get a profit of $16,500 per vehicle produced.  Then let’s take an average of 4,000 vehicles per week for Q4 as an extremely low goal and we get just under 900 milion in profit from Model 3 production alone.  Added to the 2.4bn of cash in the bank and Tesla should end the year, with all commitments either paid or escrowed, with close to as much in the bank as it started Q4 with.

So that is the rosy side.

So what would it take for Tesla to fail to make a profit in Q4?

Only manufacture and deliver, around 3,000 Model 3’s per week.

Have so many issues with the manufactured cars that the profit drops below 25%, even whilst producing the 4,000 per week.

Incur significant extra costs to keep the manufacturing plant running.

Have a production outage of around 2-3 weeks with a total stoppage.

What could go better?  Well the stock could bounce post Q3 response allowing Tesla to convert the debt.  Tesla could get production up to an average of 6,000 per week by increasing to 7,000 per week in late November and sustaining it through to the end of the year.  Tesla may start making 50% average Gross profit on the Model 3.

We shall see.  My guess is somewhere in the middle.  35% gross profit, 5,000 average cars and Tesla does not convert its debt even if the share price rises.  Leaving Tesla with a few hundred million in the bank over and above the Q3 start position and ready to make serious money in Q4.

I will revise my position after the Q3 results.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 07:06:00 PM
$TSLA has registered 33,617 Model 3 VIN's in Q4 already, and we are only two and a half weeks in.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 18, 2018, 08:29:33 PM
Here's a short-side article from jaberwock.
The really interesting question is indeed how many buyers are still available at each price point in the US and internationally. My feeling is that the buyer pool is larger than the shorts claim - especially as many buyers become enthusiastic salespersons and as the EV adoption process is not immediate across all (rich) population segments, but the pool is not endless as the rosy twitterers believe. The only way to find out is to wait. This is an unknown that could cause Tesla some confusion down the road, if/when the market dries up or changes suddenly.
What I am almost certain about that Q4 will still see strong US demand, partly because of the tax incentive expiry, and that no meaningful European sales will take place.
A good point raised here is that sales to Europe will increase the in-transit inventory, affecting cash flow at some point.

Tesla: No Need To Raise Funding? Wait And See (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212238-tesla-need-raise-funding-wait-see)
Quote
* Tesla will soon exhaust its North American backlog for the long-range variant of the Model 3.
* Production for international markets will have to begin soon if Tesla does not introduce the lower priced variants.
* Shipping to international markets will require longer lead times and higher volumes of "in-transit" cars.
* This will seriously affect Tesla's cash flow at a time when large debt repayments are coming due.
* Q3 cash flow will be positively driven by a draw-down in finished goods inventory and an increase in AP. Q4 will reverse that flow.

And another article by Thurman Dunn.
Tesla: A Tough Time To Chase Profits (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212259-tesla-tough-time-chase-profits)
Quote
Putting aside the Musk induced drama, there remain questions about whether the longstanding backlog of Model 3s is finally beginning to saturate buyers able (or desiring) to pluck down over $50K for a car marketed as a $35K wunderkind. Make no mistake, the Model 3 competes effectively in the $50K segment (particularly with the current $7,500 tax incentive for buyers), but it is difficult to see demand hold up in the long run for such a high end product. It remains unclear what the actual base price will wind up being for the Model 3, but with tax rebates already deep into the waning phase, it seems likely that the final few months of 2018 will represent the best as it relates to demand for the premium versions of the Model 3. It is possible that Tesla and Musk are already feeling the pressure of decreasing demand, and that Musk's increasingly erratic behavior is an expression of the strain.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Neven on October 18, 2018, 10:12:38 PM
I coincidentally ran into this CNBC video of the Tesla Solar Roof, published three weeks ago (sorry if this is a re-post):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABR4KgXoZPE
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 10:37:46 PM
The “Demand will Shrink” argument was put forth after the Model S launch, then again with the Model X.  “Surely after the initial rush of sales, demand will fall.”  Now it’s years later, Tesla is making more of them than ever before, and there’s still a months-long backlog.  Plenty of demand.

The Model 3 is the fourth-largest-selling passenger car in the U.S., drawing sales from lower-priced as well as luxury car owners, as well as first-timer car owners, in all age groups, and generating more revenue than any other car in the U.S.  Until last July, most orders came from enthusiasts who had never even seen the car, let alone test-driven one.  Now a huge new market of people who have experienced the car personally are ordering one.  The addressable market is in the billions of dollars.
More here: https://twitter.com/wintonark/status/1049793675457257472

At the Special Delivery Weekend Events in September, parking lots full of AWD and Performance models sold out within hours, leaving only a few RWD models for those who didn’t make it to the event the first day.   

Demand, even at the higher price points, remains strong. 

Quote
***UPDATE: We’ve just received word that Tesla was overwhelmed by orders on this final day and, as such, has removed the October 15 deadline for the guarantee of the full tax credit notice from its website. This seems to indicate that Tesla has enough U.S. orders in now for the remainder of the year.
Tesla: Place Order By October 15 To Receive Full U.S. Federal Tax Credit
https://insideevs.com/tesla-full-u-s-tax-credit-deadline-oct-15/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: gerontocrat on October 18, 2018, 11:45:42 PM
”($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)”

Many people have spent many hours trying to work this out. :)

This difficulty is that Model S/X reservations are $5,000, so it messes up the math.
This has been nagging me as it should not be a vexatious problem and - This is a sad reflection on the US Education system....
EDIT
____________________________________________________________
SOLUTION 1:- (workings omitted without large Payment in Advance (non-refundable deposit)

IFF (means If and only If) the total number of reservations was 420,000,
AND IFF all model 3 reservations were $1,000
AND IFF all other model reservations were $5,000
AND IFF the value of deposits was 942 million

THEN
Deposits were as follows

                   No of deposits       $
Model 3 $1,000      289,500   289,500,000
All others $5,000   130,500   652,500,000
       Total              420,000    942,000,000
___________________________________________________________
SOLUTION 2:- (workings also omitted without large Payment in Advance (non-refundable deposit)

IFF (means If and only If) the total number of MODEL 3 reservations was 420,000,
AND IFF all model 3 reservations were $1,000
AND IFF all other model reservations were $5,000
AND IFF the value of deposits was 942 million

THEN
Deposits were as follows

                No of deposits        $
Model 3 $1,000      420,000   420,000,000
All others $5,000   104,400   522,000,000
         Total               524,400   942,000,000


A very simple equation IFF the assumptions hold.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2018, 11:58:33 PM
”($942 million divided by 420,000 would give an average deposit of $2,243 which sounds sort of OK?)”

Many people have spent many hours trying to work this out. :)

This difficulty is that Model S/X reservations are $5,000, so it messes up the math.
This has been nagging me as it should not be a vexatious problem and - This is a sad reflection on the US Education system....

SOLUTION:- (workings omitted without large Payment in Advance (non-refundable deposit)

IFF (means If and only If) the total number of reservations was 420,000,
AND IFF all model 3 reservations were $1,000
AND IFF all other model reservations were $5,000
AND IFF the value of deposits was 942 million

THEN
Deposits were as follows

             No of deposits       $
Model 3 $1,000      289,500   289,500,000
All others $5,000   130,500   652,500,000
Total          420,000    942,000,000

A very simple simultaneous equation IFF the assumptions hold.

Math!  ;D
What you have looks good!  But (and please don’t shoot the messenger) we also have Tesla Semi reservations, at $20,000 a pop.  And perhaps a Tesla Roadster or three for $200,000.*

That’s why so many who have puzzled over this have so little hair left!  ;)

*Correction:  Roadster reservations are $50,000, but Founders Series Roadster reservations are $250,000.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 19, 2018, 12:03:37 AM
The “Demand will Shrink” argument was put forth after the Model S launch, then again with the Model X.  “Surely after the initial rush of sales, demand will fall.”  Now it’s years later, Tesla is making more of them than ever before, and there’s still a months-long backlog.  Plenty of demand.
...

Thinking about this some more, I wondered WHY anyone would say demand will drop.  Reviews of the Model 3 have been stellar, with a shocking number of reviewers saying they will buy one for themselves.  When GM brings out a new sedan, no one says, “It will only sell for a few months….” 

Although there is a Tesla Bear mentality that latches onto any negative scenario, I don’t think the majority of mainstream journalists are inherently prejudiced against Tesla.  But they may be prejudiced against EVs!  Morgan Stanley’s on-again, off-again Tesla bull/bear Adam Jonas only recently took a ride in a Model 3.  And, big surprise [not], he liked it!  A lot!

Journalists who don’t understand EVs, who haven’t experienced the joys, benefits and differences, may be likely to think that EVs are still a fringe product that not many people are interested in, and thus believe “demand will fall” after the initially excited customer group gets their fill.  But it’s clear from the Model 3’s top-selling status (if it weren’t from the Model S takeover of the luxury segment) that what we have here is a brand new car for the masses — not just a niche product EV.


“Frankly, our enjoyment of the high-spec version of the Model 3 took us by surprise. It’s hard to say how much this matters. But it matters,” Jonas stated.
Tesla impresses TSLA bull-turned-skeptic after Model 3 Performance test drive
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-performance-wins-back-tsla-bull-test-drive/
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: magnamentis on October 19, 2018, 12:03:50 AM
i don't think that the original question of this thread is mainly related to sales numbers.

i see and have seen many companies with great sales that went bust and i see and have seen many people with great incomes that went belly up.

the question this thread started with was whether tesla has a serious problem to survive as an independent company due to the way the company is mananged, means mainly, how that enterprise is or is not efficiently using the available funds.

again, tesla products have a run but they have not built their business following the minimal commercial rules and are closing in to the events horizon ( taking a black hole as an analogy for debts)

question for the near future will be whether they have enough fuel, whether the thrust is sufficient and whether the crew is sufficiently skilled to reach escape velocity.

this is what i doubt that they can escape without external assistance, kind of tractor beam is needed ;) ;)

Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Zythryn on October 19, 2018, 01:58:39 AM
Tesla now offering a mid-range version https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?#battery

$4k less than the RWD long-range battery version ($45k vs $49k).
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 19, 2018, 03:17:42 AM
Indeed there have been some changes including this mid-range option, as well as removing RWD with long-range, and other stuff.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/18/tesla-model-3-mid-range-battery-pricing-structure/ (https://electrek.co/2018/10/18/tesla-model-3-mid-range-battery-pricing-structure/)

Quote
Tesla is launching today a version of Model 3 with a new ‘mid-range’ battery pack for $45,000 before incentives.
The new version, which was never announced, is coming as a surprise and it changes the whole pricing structure of Model 3.
While many reservation holders are waiting for the base version of the Model 3 with a standard battery starting at $35,000, Tesla is coming out of nowhere with this unannounced new option.
Model 3 has been available for over a year now with the ‘Long Range’ battery pack version for 310 miles of range.
Without any option, the vehicle started at $49,000 – significantly more than the $35,000 base price promised by Tesla, but the company always promised that a base version was coming soon.
Instead of that version, Tesla is now launching a ‘mid-range’ battery with 260 miles of range for $45,000, according to an update to the Model 3’s online design studio:
With the launch of the new battery pack option, Tesla is making several changes to the Model 3’s price and option structure.
The main change is that the rear-wheel-drive option is now only available with the new mid-range pack and now the Long-Range pack only comes with a dual motor all-wheel-drive powertrain.
Update: CEO Elon Musk says that RWD is still available with Long Range battery pack if ordered “off menu” for the next “week or so”.
The price of the dual motor all-wheel-drive powertrain, which has been on a roller coaster with 4 changes, has been changed again.
It’s now back to $5,000 – resulting in a new base price for the Long Range Model 3 of $54,000.

From reading the comments I understand this is an interim solution enabling a slightly cheaper car with less range, without waiting 4-6 for the standard battery, maybe so buyers can take advantage of the full tax incentive. The mid-range battery will utilize the long-range battery package with fewer cells inside, while the standard battery will have a smaller package.
It also seems Tesla was overwhelmed with demand for the AWD long-range, hence the removal of the RWD long-range from the list of options, probably this will be a temporary limitation as well.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: oren on October 19, 2018, 03:56:03 AM
The ever-vigilant Bill Maurer has already found the short-side angle about this new change.

Tesla: Has Model 3 Demand Collapsed? (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212619-tesla-model-3-demand-collapsed)

Quote
New $45k version released unexpectedly.

What happened to this year's production being sold out?

Margins are likely to take a hit.
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 19, 2018, 12:33:58 PM
Tesla Bears:  Tesla will never offer a lower price version of the Model 3.
Tesla:  Hold my beer.

New lower-price, mid-range model starting at $45,000, and simplified ordering screen (two pages).

Tesla Model 3 gets a $45k version with 260-mile battery and rear wheel drive
https://www.teslarati.com/mid-range-tesla-model-3-45k-260-mile-battery/

Musk confirms this battery pack is has fewer cells, is not a software-locked larger one.  Analysts see this as a prelude to 10k cars/week before the end of the year, if suppliers have ramped as expected.  Word is that new battery production lines at the gigagactory are up and running:

Nick (@Nick_P3D) 10/18/18, 7:14 PM
@ValueAnalyst1 I have it on good authority that they're making progress on the implementation of the Grohmann lines at GF1 (about 50% done ATM) that's allowing for cheaper pack production. They want as many cheap(er) M3 orders to get tax credit before EoY.
https://twitter.com/nick_p3d/status/1053061669293776896

The new Grohmann machines are designed to make module production in Gigafactory 1 three times faster and three times cheaper.

Greg Wester (@gwestr) 10/18/18, 11:39 PM
My watch is blowing up with $45k Tesla orders. Elon did it again! 100,000 orders this month, bears are panicking
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1053128494740172801
Title: Re: Tesla glory/failure
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 19, 2018, 08:00:42 PM
Tesla Bears:  Tesla will never offer a lower price version of the Model 3.
Tesla:  Hold my beer.


The bears say the $35K version won't ever come to market. And we are correct.


Just curious, do you think it is Bullish that everyone who shorted Valeant, Enron, and the housing market are shorting Tesla?


Tesla is so behind paying its suppliers that they many are on the verge of filing for bankruptcy (some already have).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/tesla-short-seller-warns-of-massive-supply-chain-disruption


"Short seller Fahmi Quadir, who’s betting against Tesla Inc., said the carmaker faces risks to its supply chain because some vendors haven’t been getting paid."

“We see very little contingency planning, and we also see executives from the supply chain department departing in recent weeks and months.’’

"Tesla ended June with just $2.2 billion in cash. Its accounts payable -- a measure of short-term debts to creditors or suppliers -- was more than $3 billion. In a memo t