Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: opensheart on July 09, 2013, 07:29:23 PM

Title: Places becoming less livable
Post by: opensheart on July 09, 2013, 07:29:23 PM
How about a thread for stories/new clips about places that are becoming less livable.

I would start with these two:
I wonder if the picture in the first one is really a picture of current conditions in Phoenix, AZ.

http://www.dailyimpact.net/2013/07/09/phoenix-falling/ (http://www.dailyimpact.net/2013/07/09/phoenix-falling/)
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620#ixzz2YXv4B8mL (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620#ixzz2YXv4B8mL)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on July 09, 2013, 10:37:44 PM
A fun topic, but it will get some kick back you know as everything depends on when it happens.

Miami is toast eventually along with a lot of south Florida.  But will a big population decrease occur any time in the next 20-30 years?

Phoenix I know a lot about as I live near there and my daughter has been a resident for a long time.  Phoenix has 2 issues that determine its livability.  Water and Air Conditioning.  Dust storms are just a nuisance there like they are in Saudi Arabia.  Water would seem to be the short straw, but if you really look at supplies and use there is a lot of slack in the system.  Water usage rates in the "Valley" where Phoenix and the suburbs are located is very high and conservation alone (when it becomes required) would extend available water out a long ways.  I have no idea what the actual number of swimming pools in the Valley are but I would bet that it is in the 50,000 range.  And who knows how many golf courses there are.  And many knuckleheads still have lawns and such.  There is enough water supply now,  if it was conserved, to support 2 times as many people than they have now.  Everything really depends on the snow pack that feeds the Colorado River and the seasonal monsoons.  When those fail (as they will) times get tough as it will not be just water that runs short but power from the dams.  Now if they get off their rear and build up solar they can avoid the loss of electricity from hydro and extend AC out indefinitely and we are back to just water.   Best guess is that Phoenix will be at least the same size it is now when Miami is abandoned.  BTW, if you have never been there when it is hot, 110F in Phoenix seems like about 98 F on a muggy day in Washington DC as the humidity is so low.

Here is an article that talks about a lot of places that are having problems including problems.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/77841/global-warming-threatens-coastal-cities (http://globalnation.inquirer.net/77841/global-warming-threatens-coastal-cities)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on July 09, 2013, 10:57:40 PM
Kuritiba, parts of Marshal and Solomon Islands...

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/07/solomon-islands-prime-minister-it-is.html (http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/07/solomon-islands-prime-minister-it-is.html)

...
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Superman1 on July 14, 2013, 03:44:26 PM
JimD,

"Best guess is that Phoenix will be at least the same size it is now when Miami is abandoned."  Some recent articles on Phoenix real estate show the values rebounding ferociously.  Not what one would expect from a city about to be abandoned.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on July 14, 2013, 09:11:13 PM
Superman1

Very true.

BTW my daughter and I got on Google Earth and played around a bit.  My estimate of 50,000 swimming pools in the Valley where Phoenix is located is WAY off.  More like 200,000.  Not to mention the artificial lake developments. A house on the water with a dock and boat in the desert.  We could start a fish farming industry.

I went to one of the giant pools in Mesa this weekend to swim laps.  It was about 110 F.  I dehydrated in about 30 mins.  Ugly. Then we had a dust storm.  Then a big thunderstorm.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 14, 2013, 10:40:59 PM
Water would seem to be the short straw, but if you really look at supplies and use there is a lot of slack in the system.  Water usage rates in the "Valley" where Phoenix and the suburbs are located is very high and conservation alone (when it becomes required) would extend available water out a long ways.  I have no idea what the actual number of swimming pools in the Valley are but I would bet that it is in the 50,000 range.  And who knows how many golf courses there are.  And many knuckleheads still have lawns and such.  There is enough water supply now,  if it was conserved, to support 2 times as many people than they have now.

I am certain you are right that if water use was restricted to necessary use, there would be no water shortage. It is a mistake, however, to consider water in isolation. 10% of employment in Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale is in the leisure and hospitality industries. Another 5% is in construction, dependent in no small part to it being a favorite retirement location. Neither of these will do well if pools and golf courses were to disappear. And I bet most of those knuckleheads with bluegrass lawns are those transplanted northerners who have retired there.

The impact of having much or most of these two industries disappear would be devastating.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on July 14, 2013, 11:48:12 PM
SH

True enough.  I expect the locals will pull out all stops to keep the leisure industry viable.  Most of the golf courses there are already watered with reclaimed water I have been told.  Lawns tend to be much more common in the affluent areas and also much bigger.  There are mansion houses with lawns of a acre or more and hotel sized swimming pools.  It just grates on my nerves I guess.  According to my daughter the percentage of 'green' pools is a lot less than a few years ago.  During the housing crash there were so many neglected pools growing algae and mosquitoes that the city had to fly around to find them and get after homeowners.  Still quite a few algae ponds.  Still think the fish farming might work :) Another funny thing she mentioned is that most people do not use their pools in the summer but rather in the other seasons of the year.  It is often just too hot in the summer to go outside I guess?  Or maybe the water is too hot?  The busy season (when all the snow-birds are there) is from fall to spring.  Prescott, where I live, is the opposite in that folks come from spring to fall for the cool summers.  Lots of well-off Phoenix residents have 2nd homes here (or 3rds).  We actually have a neighbor who reputedly owns 8 homes (no not John McCain he only owns 7)!  Their vacation home in Prescott cost 7 million to build (but it has all the latest energy efficient features....along with an indoor swimming pool to complement the approx. 8000 sq ft of living space).  Guess they're Green!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 15, 2013, 04:14:17 AM
Jim D...

I have a sister who lives in Flagstaff. It is beautiful there.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Superman1 on July 15, 2013, 03:01:10 PM
Shared Humanity,

I drove across country in late December 1959; three continuous days of snow!  I passed through Flagstaff, and it was snowing heavily.  The real shock: gas was 33 cents/gallon!!  I was used to paying about 21 cents per gallon on the East Coast.  Wondered how people could afford such high prices for gas.  Oh, how times have changed!!!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pikaia on July 30, 2013, 10:38:57 AM
The Alaskan village of Kivalina is due to disappear soon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23346370 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23346370)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on August 25, 2013, 09:16:05 PM
In our little competition to figure out whether Miami or Phoenix is the first place abandoned in the US due to climate change Miami has another arrow in its quiver.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/us/where-sand-is-gold-the-coffers-are-running-dry-in-florida.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/us/where-sand-is-gold-the-coffers-are-running-dry-in-florida.html?_r=0)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2013, 11:55:51 PM
Huffington Post lists 14 U.S. cities that could be devastated over the next century due to rising tides.  (Yes, Miami is #1 in this list.)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/26/global-warming-flooding_n_3799019.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/26/global-warming-flooding_n_3799019.html)

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Anne on September 01, 2013, 10:14:14 AM
Over on the Tibet thread I just posted about an excellent FT magazine article (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/ee1f3f80-1029-11e3-a258-00144feabdc0.html#slide0) (sign up to read) relating to the degradation of the grasslands there and what the Chinese government has been attempting to do, including relocating herdsmen to towns, where they often fall into poverty. Some haunting photographs, too.

I guess the post could just as well have gone here, but here's a link (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,318.msg14267.html#msg14267).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on September 03, 2013, 07:17:08 PM
Flood Insurance - is another factor which, at least in the US, has a big impact on whether a coastal location is "livable".

The below article refers to mostly Sandy locations and new flood insurance requirements.  However, this issue is cropping up all over the coastal locations which have been hit hard over the last decade.  I think the time is coming when, if your property is located in a very vulnerable coastal location, you will have to pay premiums which are an order of magnitude higher than today and maybe you will not be able to buy coverage at all.  When this happens the locations are functionally no longer livable except for the very wealthy who can self insure.

Quote
In New York City and New Jersey, the work began a few years before Hurricane Sandy struck on Oct. 29, 2012, damaging or destroying 365,000 homes in New Jersey and another 20,000 in New York City. After a public comment period, the region’s maps are expected to become final by mid-2015, putting into effect new insurance premiums.

The agency, which has released estimates showing that rates could range from a few hundred dollars for the most compliant residences to $1,800, $10,700 and more than $20,000, says individual premiums will vary and homeowners must consult an insurance agent to determine what they will pay.

Making matters worse for coastal homeowners, federally subsidized flood insurance for primary residences will start to phase out by late next year, eventually forcing about 1.1 million property owners to pay the substantially higher full-market rates. A law passed by Congress last summer eliminated subsidies for the National Flood Insurance Program, which is $24 billion in debt in the wake of massive storms such as Hurricane Katrina.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/03/20249654-20000-a-year-for-flood-insurance-sandy-survivors-face-tough-rebuilding-choices (http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/03/20249654-20000-a-year-for-flood-insurance-sandy-survivors-face-tough-rebuilding-choices)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on September 04, 2013, 07:20:02 AM
We're all aware of the effect that the failure of the Russian wheat crop had in the so called Arab Spring, but I'd been unaware of the effect of drought on the present situation in Syria until I read the following in section #6 of an article about the recent gas attack.

http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/09/your-labor-day-syria-reader-part-2-william-polk/279255/ (http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/09/your-labor-day-syria-reader-part-2-william-polk/279255/)
"In some areas, all agriculture ceased.  In others crop failures reached 75%.  And generally as much as 85% of livestock died of thirst or hunger."
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on September 04, 2013, 12:54:13 PM
Good catch, Terry.

 I remember seeing long-term drought maps that showed many of the Mediterranean countries that have been in financial distress as being in some stage of drying or drought, including Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (the famous 'PIGS'). But, iirc, Syria was among the worst hit, though many of the other MENA countries involved in the Arab Spring were in various stages. I haven't looked at drought maps from that region recently, though.

This general issue is something that needs much more press. Again, iirc, Somalia's severe political and economic turmoil was preceded by deforestation, drought and hence famine and conflict. One doesn't want to say that this is the only element, but certainly it should be more prominently covered, so people can see what is at stake in a climate-disrupted world.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ccgwebmaster on September 04, 2013, 07:04:58 PM
We're all aware of the effect that the failure of the Russian wheat crop had in the so called Arab Spring, but I'd been unaware of the effect of drought on the present situation in Syria until I read the following in section #6 of an article about the recent gas attack.

I've been seeing Syria as a good example of a heavily climate change influenced failure for some time now? (I'm actually a little surprised if it's news around here!)

(from Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists of all people, though perhaps apt enough)
http://thebulletin.org/climate-change-and-syrian-uprising (http://thebulletin.org/climate-change-and-syrian-uprising)

Even years after warnings were raised, the world is still apparently blind to the role climate change (and resource factors - water) played in destabilising Syria? It doesn't augur well that the original warnings were ignored - it augurs even less well that in several years the conflict is still seen as purely ideologically driven...

The conflict itself now drives elements of feedback and is increasing stress both within Syria and in adjoining regions, though I don't think the blue touch paper will be lit properly until the next shock (similar to the Russian grain embargo following their drought that contributed to the Arab spring) comes around.

Overall this year has been a pleasant surprise, in that we seem to have avoided such a triggering situation. The Arctic sea ice has done rather well too - one wonders if those two things are connected? Anyone know how fast changes in Arctic sea ice can be expected to feed through into weather effects? Or do we just take the view both are essentially subject to large amounts of random variation and not so tightly coupled?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on February 08, 2014, 03:03:23 AM
Energy shortages force Pakistanis to scavenge for wood, threatening tree canopy

Quote
Ramesh Iqbal lives in one of the Pakistani capital’s middle-class neighborhoods and attends college. But on a recent day, he and two friends emerged from a wooded area, their arms full of the logs and branches they had gathered to warm their homes.

“We never thought we would face such a situation,” said Iqbal, 24, wearing a sweater over a collared shirt. “But due to winter, and cold, we are facing problems.”

Quote
Environmentalists and government officials fear Pakistan is now at a tipping point, having retained just 2 to 5 percent of its tree cover. Officials fear the deforestation will contribute to more lethal floods, disruptive landslides, bacteria-ridden drinking water and stifling air pollution. The country may also become more vulnerable to climate change.

“This is a very dangerous situation for Pakistan,” said Pervaiz Amir, a local forestry and agriculture expert. “The middle class are now cutting trees and burning trees.”

But convincing the public of the value of tree cover has been a tough sell, especially this year, when electricity is out for up to 10 hours each day and the natural gas supply is often too low to power heaters and stoves.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/energy-shortages-force-pakistanis-to-scavenge-for-wood-threatening-tree-canopy/2014/02/01/18c2107e-86a3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/energy-shortages-force-pakistanis-to-scavenge-for-wood-threatening-tree-canopy/2014/02/01/18c2107e-86a3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: RaenorShine on February 26, 2014, 06:17:07 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/25/china-toxic-air-pollution-nuclear-winter-scientists (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/25/china-toxic-air-pollution-nuclear-winter-scientists)

Quote
China's toxic air pollution resembles nuclear winter, say scientists

Air pollution now impeding photosynthesis and potentially wreaking havoc on country's food supply, experts warn
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on March 09, 2014, 08:14:47 PM
The Marshall Islands

Quote
Hundreds of people who had to flee their houses earlier this week as flood waters tore through Majuro, the capital of the Marshall Islands, are now returning home to pick up the soggy pieces.

On Monday, nearly 1,000 people in Majuro and another 246 on the island of Arno, were forced to evacuate by epic king tides that inundated the low-lying communities. Many parts of Majuro Atoll are just 30cm above sea level and the islands as a whole are on average just 2 meters above sea level....

The Marshall Islands are a string of more than 1,000 low-lying islands and coral atolls in the North Pacific Ocean that are home to more than 70,000 people. The highest point, anywhere on the islands is 10 meters above sea level.

Last June, high tides, combined with up to 8 foot storm surge, left much of Majuro under two feet of water....

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that sea levels will rise between 28 and 98 cm by the end of the century. If the higher estimate proves right, about two-thirds of the Marshall Islands will be underwater by 2100. 

Quote
Ultimately, however, migration may be the only option for many islanders. Already there has been mass migration within the country, as people from the outer atolls stream into Majuro. While Majuro is far from being high ground, it does offer people, no longer able to live off the land in areas where salt water has crept into wells and agricultural lands, alternative ways to make a living.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/06/3372301/marshall-islands-flood-king-tide/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/06/3372301/marshall-islands-flood-king-tide/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on March 10, 2014, 12:01:11 AM
Miami is doomed

SH posted the below link over in the Greenland Topic and I thought it deserved a repeat here.  Very interesting read.  One can just see the politicians spending a hundred billion dollars of your money to save a dead man walking, so to speak, before everyone capitulates and abandons the place.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620 (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 10, 2014, 02:55:02 PM
Miami is doomed

SH posted the below link over in the Greenland Topic and I thought it deserved a repeat here.  Very interesting read.  One can just see the politicians spending a hundred billion dollars of your money to save a dead man walking, so to speak, before everyone capitulates and abandons the place.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620 (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620)

The most alarming part of this article is that, recognizing their predicament, Southeast Florida officials brought the finest engineers with the best expertise at holding the ocean back from Holland to provide solutions. After studying the geology of southeast Florida, they concluded that nothing could be done to protect the area from saltwater intrusion and they left.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: RaenorShine on March 15, 2014, 11:12:07 AM
Are lightning deaths increasing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26554974 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26554974)

Quote
Lightning appears to be killing and injuring increasing numbers of people in developing countries, meteorologists and experts say.

The total casualties could even be higher than other weather-related disasters like floods, landslides and droughts.

"The frequency of lightning has somehow increased from what it used to be," says Michael Nkalubo, commissioner at Meteorological Department of Uganda, a country where lightning storms are common.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on March 15, 2014, 04:21:49 PM
Are lightning deaths increasing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26554974 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26554974)

Quote
Lightning appears to be killing and injuring increasing numbers of people in developing countries, meteorologists and experts say.

The total casualties could even be higher than other weather-related disasters like floods, landslides and droughts.

"The frequency of lightning has somehow increased from what it used to be," says Michael Nkalubo, commissioner at Meteorological Department of Uganda, a country where lightning storms are common.

Ok!  I got the first part down, now I have to figure out how to direct it more accurately  ;)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: solartim27 on February 11, 2015, 06:16:53 PM
I don't understand why anyone would invest in south Florida real estate.  This article has some good pictures of the limestone and flood control barriers
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/water-high-price-cheap/rising-seas-threaten-south-floridas-drinking-water (http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/water-high-price-cheap/rising-seas-threaten-south-floridas-drinking-water)

It doesn't matter if you can float around in your home if there's nothing to drink.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article1981142.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article1981142.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 11, 2015, 03:24:13 PM
Increasingly, people are giving up on New York City, many because of the weather.   
Article has a few facts, but mostly anecdotes.

Quote
Approximately 50,000 New Yorkers move to Florida every year, more than twice the number that move from Florida to New York.

It’s not just retirees, either. About 78% of those people are under 60.
http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/fed-winter-new-yorkers-moving-article-1.2142324 (http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/fed-winter-new-yorkers-moving-article-1.2142324)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ritter on March 11, 2015, 09:04:34 PM
Funny that they'd move to Florida. I guess they'll be moving again as it goes under!  :o
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: opensheart on March 13, 2015, 03:36:21 PM
Should we add the Pacific Island nation of Vanuatu,  particularly the Island of  Efate

Category 5 Cyclone Pam Bearing Down on Island Nation of Vanuatu
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2933 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2933)

According to some comments:
What is really unfortunate is that Pam is not even moving that fast, just 12mph. Prolonged winds of that magnitude are going to obliterate the island. I hope everyone has evacuated.


To tell the dire truth: Pam decided to rest at the beaches of Efate (or what is left of them): Pictures below with one hour difference :-((((



Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: LRC1962 on March 13, 2015, 04:19:33 PM
Quote
Approximately 50,000 New Yorkers move to Florida every year, more than twice the number that move from Florida to New York.
It’s not just retirees, either. About 78% of those people are under 60.
I am sorry, but that makes me laugh. Unless they are sticking to the very high ground in the north. (highly unlikely as they have picked Florida). You already have monthly flooding of coastal areas of over a foot without any storms. Scientist are highly suggesting at least 6" SLR by 2100. Let me think Soggy feet , or cold weather. Being used to the cold living where I do, my preference is dry feet, no anacondas or other snakes, crocodiles, alligators, in my front or back yard, no mildew..... Yup I can handle the cold quite nicely thank you.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2015, 10:32:34 PM
Florida's future.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 27, 2015, 08:04:07 PM
When people start moving underground due to climate change, consider the Turks, who did that a long time ago.
Quote
When it comes to hidden underground cities, few people were better builders than the Turks: The Derinkuyu complex in Turkey's Cappadocia region could provide refuge for at least 20,000 people in its carved-out caverns — but now archaeologists are surveying a site they think could be even bigger: a cave complex beneath a Byzantine-era hilltop castle in nearby Nevsehir that may go 370 feet (113 meters) deep.
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/weird-science/turkish-team-may-have-found-biggest-underground-city-yet-n330986 (http://www.nbcnews.com/science/weird-science/turkish-team-may-have-found-biggest-underground-city-yet-n330986)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on March 27, 2015, 08:13:15 PM
Since it's "Byzantine-era," it wasn't the Turks that built it.

Also, some parts, at least, apparently go back 5000 years: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/03/27/how-this-vast-ancient-underground-city-was-accidentally-discovered-in-turkey/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/03/27/how-this-vast-ancient-underground-city-was-accidentally-discovered-in-turkey/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 01, 2015, 02:28:13 AM
In southeast Florida, the consequences of sea level rise are obvious.  People may not agree about climate change -- but they are taking action, at personal and community levels, across party lines.
Quote
Thus, Kahan’s data show that the same Southeast Floridians who could potentially polarize over climate change broadly agree, on a bipartisan basis, with statements like the following: “local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.”
...
[C]ities across Southeast Florida are steadily implementing the compact’s recommended adaptation measures. So far, according to a survey conducted in late 2014, Asseff’s city of Hollywood had implemented 38 out of 110, ranging from restoring trees in urban areas to advancing local renewable energy development, to studying how rising seas will affect stormwater systems. That’s an impressive third of the recommendations, but it’s actually well behind some other compact cities, such as Key West, which had implemented 65 at the time of the study, and Miami Beach, which stood at 61.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/31/the-unlikely-group-of-republicans-who-are-preparing-florida-for-climate-change/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/31/the-unlikely-group-of-republicans-who-are-preparing-florida-for-climate-change/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ritter on April 01, 2015, 06:13:03 PM
In southeast Florida, the consequences of sea level rise are obvious.  People may not agree about climate change -- but they are taking action, at personal and community levels, across party lines.
Quote
Thus, Kahan’s data show that the same Southeast Floridians who could potentially polarize over climate change broadly agree, on a bipartisan basis, with statements like the following: “local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.”
...
[C]ities across Southeast Florida are steadily implementing the compact’s recommended adaptation measures. So far, according to a survey conducted in late 2014, Asseff’s city of Hollywood had implemented 38 out of 110, ranging from restoring trees in urban areas to advancing local renewable energy development, to studying how rising seas will affect stormwater systems. That’s an impressive third of the recommendations, but it’s actually well behind some other compact cities, such as Key West, which had implemented 65 at the time of the study, and Miami Beach, which stood at 61.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/31/the-unlikely-group-of-republicans-who-are-preparing-florida-for-climate-change/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/31/the-unlikely-group-of-republicans-who-are-preparing-florida-for-climate-change/)

It seems efforts would be so much more streamlined if they were allowed to talk about the actual cause of the problems (i.e., stop denying). Er, um, the seas be a risin! We gots to do sumin bout it! But it aint no climate change!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Clare on April 16, 2015, 01:52:58 AM
I thought this Hot Topic blog post might be of general interest tho' I am sure a number of you will be familiar with NZ & how much of our infrastructure is on the coast.
Areas in Auckland already has flooding problems during v high tides & the town where I live is barely above sea level & heavily reliant on the city's pumps pumping!

Someone has updated NZ's maps to show the effects for 3 scenarios of sea level rise, the lowest being 10m.  (He explains why he has made this the min level)
http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-encroaching-sea-new-nz-sea-level-rise-maps/ (http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-encroaching-sea-new-nz-sea-level-rise-maps/)
xraymike makes some v interesting points in the comments section, particularly about the rate of sea level rise in the future cf. in the geological past when the forcings were very different!

This is the area where I live, my house is well under water in the blued out part:
http://www.musther.net/nzslr/Maps/Local/10mSLR-HawkesBay.jpg (http://www.musther.net/nzslr/Maps/Local/10mSLR-HawkesBay.jpg)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Laurent on April 16, 2015, 10:40:13 AM
I wonder why it is never mentioned that see level was up to 300 meter above see level in the past ? ... since we are approaching very fast the conditions needed to be at these levels, we should think twice before saying that sea level rise will be limited to 70 meters. 70 meters is only the volume of ice that has the potential to rise the sea level but it is less than 50% of the rise, so we are certainly (here again) underestimating the threat.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: foolhardycougar on April 20, 2015, 04:59:23 PM
There are places which are covered with water as water levels has increased due to global warming and this makes these place less livable.
Here is an article which shows the effects of raising water levels on the coastal areas http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html)
According to studies it is said that global warming cannot be bought to the normal that easily it will take decades, for our next generation lets make it safer
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 27, 2015, 06:45:43 PM
Billions of Dollars of Real Estate at Risk to Wildfire, Experts Say
Quote
More than 1.1 million properties in the western United States were identified as highly vulnerable to wildfire in a 2015 risk report from analytics firm CoreLogic. The cost to rebuild those homes would total $269 billion, according to the report, which was written to inform the insurance industry and, perhaps, sway policymakers to encourage fire-safe construction in areas susceptible to wildfires.
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/billions-dollars-real-estate-risk-wildfire-experts-say-n343586 (http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/billions-dollars-real-estate-risk-wildfire-experts-say-n343586)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 28, 2015, 01:05:08 AM
The recent flooding in Texas points up the known problem of increasing development in flood plains.

In Texas, the Race to Build in Harm’s Way Outpaces Flood-Risk Studies and Warming Impacts
http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dotearth/2015/05/26/in-texas-the-race-to-develop-in-harms-way-outpaces-flood-risk-studies-and-warming-impacts/ (http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dotearth/2015/05/26/in-texas-the-race-to-develop-in-harms-way-outpaces-flood-risk-studies-and-warming-impacts/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 28, 2015, 01:49:27 AM
Air-conditioning [AC] claimed to now be a basic requirement for health in Kolkata, India.
Quote
Joyashree Roy, a key member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) team that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 has kicked up a storm by calling for large-scale air-conditioning of work spaces in Kolkata to not only improve productivity but also ensure good health.
...
With the climate increasingly getting harsh with temperature and humidity soaring to peak levels more frequently in recent years than in the past, Roy argues that there is no alternative to air-conditioning.

She cites the most widely used and accepted index for assessment of heat stress in industry to argue her case. "According to the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index (an empirical index that represents heat stress to which an individual is exposed), workability condition prevails in Kolkata during December and January only. In all other months, the parameters do not meet the index prescribed by International Labour Organization. Those who are work seven-eight hours a day without AC damage their health," said Roy.

While the WBGT threshold value for continuous light work is 30°C and 25°C for heavy work, Kolkata's monthly mean temperature during the day is higher than 30°C.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/west-bengal-ngo/Row-over-activist-says-AC-a-must-in-Kolkata/articleshow/47033590.cms? (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/west-bengal-ngo/Row-over-activist-says-AC-a-must-in-Kolkata/articleshow/47033590.cms?)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: folke_kelm on May 28, 2015, 05:05:01 PM
"I wonder why it is never mentioned that see level was up to 300 meter above see level in the past"

Laurent,

There s simply not enough ice to melt to get to these levels.
The reason for a sea level rise of 300 to 400 m has to be found in tectonic movements of the ocean crust. high sedimentation rate and less subduction in different geological times are well able to explain a global sea level rise or fall. Then there is the question wether this is global or regional. It is a difficult process to reconstruct paleogeographgy.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Laurent on May 28, 2015, 05:44:11 PM
That's not a reason to not mentioning it !!!

Again, yes, there is 70 meters of SLR due to the volume of ice available. But as it is presently at max 50% of the rise, so we can expect 140 meters, no ? More ?  yes of course, it will take time but the different plates will move, you can be sure of it, especially the Antartic plate will go up sooner or later. If we do not come back quicly at around 300 ppm of CO2 eq, the living people(what's left of them) will see it.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: folke_kelm on May 29, 2015, 09:49:47 AM
Laurent,

We have of course enough ice to rise sea level with 70m, that´s not the case, but 300m is not possible in a time scale that is applicable to the survival time of any species, not even if you take isostatic rebound into your calculation. If you release the load from Antarctica and Greenland, they will rise, but at the same time, the ocean around will become deeper because of the same mechanism. Isostatic rebound will only cause regional sea level rise or fall, not global.

Laurent, do not mix up geological processes with climate change. There are very different time scales. When we speak about complete removal of ice caps we have some 1000 of years. The resulting isostatic rebound will take at least some 100 000 years before it is finished at a continental scale. When you speak about the influence of plate tectonics to sea level you have to count in million years and more.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Laurent on May 29, 2015, 10:19:02 AM
I won't tell you what will happened in the far future 100.000 years and more, but the only example that we have is our past, it does tell us there were was some sea level somewhere between 300 and 400 ppm, in fact twice. Would it be the same in the future, may be not, we don't really know what we are messing with.

People who claim this climate change is only a matter of 1000 years are wrong, we unstabilize a system that is engaged for at least 100.000 years and more. Enough for any geological change.

The last time we were at 485ppm of CO2 eq it took the earth 24 million years to come back to 300 ppm CO2eq. The more we are dumping, the harder the effort to come back it will be.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Buddy on May 29, 2015, 11:44:17 AM
Miami and other low lying coastal cities are toast as soon as the federal flood insurance program is adjusted for reality.  Once that guarantee goes.....Miami is in BIG trouble.  If things aren't insureable....most people wont live there.

New Orleans is "dead man walking" as well.  Houston........TOAST.  Beaumont......TOAST.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: folke_kelm on May 29, 2015, 11:55:50 AM
Laurent, i have the impression, that we are talking a different language. Who on this forum is claiming that climate change is a matter of 1000 years?
I like this forum because it provides solid science and i try to explain from solid geology, because that is my profession. Geological processes are something very different than the climate change we see now, they are independent from it and we should not mix it up with the climate change we see now, first, because of the time scales, second, because of our own credibility. If we mix things up, contrarians may with all right say, that we do not know what we talk about.

The last time we had 400+ ppm CO2  we had a sea level much higher than the IPCC projections. This paleo sea level we will reach again, i have no doubt at all, but we do not need any geological processes to reach it and to help us to explain it, climate change due to radiative forcing is all we need to explain the past and the future.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Laurent on May 29, 2015, 12:49:52 PM
Ok, so we agree...
That climate change problem remains to be solved !
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on May 29, 2015, 02:02:38 PM
Folke
I've walked in meadows that had served as harbors to the Vikings 1K ago in northern Newfoundland. Today what had been the harbor floor is about 3M above high tide. As I understand it that area became ice free around 5K an ago & the isostatic rebound would have begun then.
I don't know how much draught these ships required but if we assumed a minimum of 2M then in the last thousand years we have a rebound of 5M or .5M / 100 years.
As I understand it the land further inland is subsiding as the coast is rising so water is being displaced.
It seems to me as though the rising sea floor would be adding to SLR beginning as soon as the weight of the ice is removed & further that isostatic rebound would have had 4K an of slowing down before the present observations were made.
IIRC rebound at Flade Isblink has recently been measured and was quite pronounced. Wouldn't this produce similar results?
Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on June 01, 2015, 02:37:51 AM
Bangladesh is certainly becoming less livable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-32918219 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-32918219)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: plinius on June 01, 2015, 03:52:22 AM
Not entirely sure about the precise meaning, but I would like to point out that most of the mass concerned by isostatic adjustments is then landmass and not sea floor. Also, rebound should have started ~10k a ago, when the big ice sheets melted. Must have been far faster then - just suppose: lower bound should be the weight of the ice equalling the weight of the rising landmass, i.e. of order a couple of hundred meters. Probably much larger, though...

Do you have a link for that rebound? I suppose my info that this is not moving a lot:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JF001972/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JF001972/abstract)

is probably outdated?




Folke
I've walked in meadows that had served as harbors to the Vikings 1K ago in northern Newfoundland. Today what had been the harbor floor is about 3M above high tide. As I understand it that area became ice free around 5K an ago & the isostatic rebound would have begun then.
I don't know how much draught these ships required but if we assumed a minimum of 2M then in the last thousand years we have a rebound of 5M or .5M / 100 years.
As I understand it the land further inland is subsiding as the coast is rising so water is being displaced.
It seems to me as though the rising sea floor would be adding to SLR beginning as soon as the weight of the ice is removed & further that isostatic rebound would have had 4K an of slowing down before the present observations were made.
IIRC rebound at Flade Isblink has recently been measured and was quite pronounced. Wouldn't this produce similar results?
Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: folke_kelm on June 01, 2015, 10:34:24 AM
Terry,

You may take a journey to scandinavia, here you would be able to see similar harbours of the vikings on dry land.
Isostatic rebound is a highly complex movement. All places which had a significant ice load will rise, that is fast land today and it is shelf in front of Scotland and norwegian coast for example. So a part of the sea floor will rise too, but deeper down, the sea floor will descend as a reaction to the rising land and shelf.
The mantle under depressed crust will move lateral and lift up the sea floor when the crust is loaded, and when it is unloaded the movement will reverse.

Further you have to take local tectonic circumstances into account.
Look at the Netherlands and northern Germany. These regions had a significant ice load, but nevertheless are sinking today. This is due to much higher Ice load of Scandinavia and thus much higher isostatic rebound, AND, a reaction to the rise of the alps, tipping the whole plate. So, between to regions of uplift one region reacts with depression, despite it should be lifting too.

As i understand it, isostatic rebound of deglaciated areas will not add significant to sea level rise, because this effect is counteracted by deepening of the communicating areas of oceanic crust.

Regarding Flade Isblink, do you mean this study?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JF001972/pdf (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JF001972/pdf)

Here it is very difficult to distinguish between isostatic rebound of the crust and simple ablation of ice. measuring crustal uplift only with help of satelites is very difficult if you do not have fixed GPS stations at place, not on the ice but on rock.

Plinius,

Isostatic rebound is able to rise the crust with several cm/year. Your appraisal of several hundred meters is correct. When you calculate with a general density of ice of round 0,9 Kg/dm3 and rock 2,65 Kg/dm3 you will get an isostatic rebound of around 1000 m, very unaccurate, because of regional differences (and because 2,65 is only valid for upper crust rocks). How long it will take depends on the viscosity of the mantle local underneath the crust.

Please read : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001JB000400/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001JB000400/full)
for isostatic rebound in Scandinavia
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on June 01, 2015, 05:02:38 PM
Plinius


So sorry, my bookmark only took me to the AGU website.
My recollection is that a study from about 2 years ago referenced a earlier study that had found very rapid rebound based on the elevation change in the overburden of ice. IIRC the gave a fairly accurate number for height of rebound vs. height of ice lost, but what that number might have been is lost to me.
One or both of the expeditions had involved boreholes down to the rock.


In Newfoundland and Southern Labrador I had been astonished at the number beach lines presently at fairly high elevations. but that was just personal observation.


Must straighten out my bookmarks.
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 05, 2015, 02:16:10 AM
Joe Romm:  “We may not have reached ‘peak sand’ yet, but we have reached ‘peak beaches’.”

How Your Taxes Help Inflate The Value Of Coastal Properties Threatened By Climate Change
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/04/3655491/peak-sand-coastal-property-bubble/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/04/3655491/peak-sand-coastal-property-bubble/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 08, 2015, 02:45:40 AM
More on heat waves and wet bulb temperature.

The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity
Quote
A human’s core temperature is about 98.6 degrees, but the skin temperature of the trunk is about 4 to 9 degrees colder, depending on how warm it is and how active a person is. But sweating, which helps keep the core body temperature constant, becomes increasingly ineffective in increasingly humid air, and it can never cool the skin to below the wet-bulb temperature.

A person who is physically active at a wet-bulb temperature of 80 degrees will have trouble maintaining a constant core temperature and risks overheating. A sedentary person who is naked and in the shade will run into the same problem at a wet-bulb temperature of 92 degrees. A wet-bulb temperature of 95 degrees is lethal after about six hours.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/opinion/sunday/the-deadly-combination-of-heat-and-humidity.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/opinion/sunday/the-deadly-combination-of-heat-and-humidity.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2015, 10:05:03 PM
Quote
Climate change will likely denude much of the forested ecosystem that supports Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks by the year 2050, a Jackson-based report says.

Rising temperatures increase the chance of catastrophic wildfire, The Coming Climate says. Instead of recurring once every 100-300 years, wildfires on the scale of those that burned Yellowstone in 1988 will happen only decades apart. By mid-century there will be “a very real chance that coniferous forests will disappear from most areas,” the report says.
http://www.wyofile.com/report-climate-change-likely-to-kill-yellowstone-forests/ (http://www.wyofile.com/report-climate-change-likely-to-kill-yellowstone-forests/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 16, 2015, 07:35:17 PM
Climate refugees are already finding asylum in Seattle, Washington.
Quote
Outside of Ethiopia’s larger cities, people relied on wood fires to heat their homes and cook. But after years of forest cutting, the Sahara Desert began extending its reach, which caused crops to fail. This, coupled with a chronic drought that spanned from the 1960s into the 1980s, claimed the livelihoods of thousands of proud, generational farmers.
http://grist.org/climate-energy/climate-refugees-are-already-finding-asylum-in-seattle/ (http://grist.org/climate-energy/climate-refugees-are-already-finding-asylum-in-seattle/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2015, 02:27:20 AM
Study: A third of big groundwater basins in distress
Quote
"We don’t actually know how much is stored in each of these aquifers. Estimates of remaining storage might vary from decades to millennia," said Richey. "In a water-scarce society, we can no longer tolerate this level of uncertainty, especially since groundwater is disappearing so rapidly." 
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2297/ (http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2297/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 26, 2015, 08:42:16 PM
So, pretty much everywhere is becoming "less livable"?

Climate change threatens 50 years of progress in global health, study says
But slashing fossil fuel use also presents greatest global opportunity to improve people’s health in 21st century, says Lancet and UCL commission.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/23/climate-change-threatens-50-years-of-progress-in-global-health-study-says (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/23/climate-change-threatens-50-years-of-progress-in-global-health-study-says)


Climate change health risk is a 'medical emergency', experts warn
Quote
The panel said there were already numerous ways to bring about immediate health gains with action on climate change.

Burning fewer fossil fuels reduces respiratory diseases, for example, and getting people walking and cycling more cuts pollution, road accidents and rates of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and stroke.

Cardiovascular disease is the world's number one killer, leading to some 17 million deaths a year, according to World Health Organization data.

"There's a big (energy) saving in people using calories to get around, and there are some immediate gains from more active lifestyles," Montgomery said.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0P22FG20150623 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0P22FG20150623)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 05, 2015, 04:14:24 PM
Climate change affecting the super rich.

Some Private Island Owners Have Climate Change on Their Minds
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/some-private-island-owners-have-climate-change-their-minds-n385961 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/some-private-island-owners-have-climate-change-their-minds-n385961)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 06, 2015, 06:55:50 PM
Bangkok is sinking into the Earth
http://www.globalpost.com/article/6591336/2015/06/23/bangkok-sinking-earth (http://www.globalpost.com/article/6591336/2015/06/23/bangkok-sinking-earth)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 07, 2015, 02:11:26 PM
Forest fires causing air quality alerts in a state with no active fires:

Quote
...SPECIAL AIR QUALITY NOTICE FOR PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES HAS ISSUED A
SPECIAL AIR QUALITY NOTICE FOR PARTS OF WISCONSIN.

THE WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN OVER WISCONSIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
IS NOW BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Air%20Quality%20Alert (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Air%20Quality%20Alert)


Map key:  gray = air quality alerts; green = flood watches and warnings.
Hot pink = Red Flag warnings (high wildfire fire potential) -- many of these areas are at risk for thunderstorms/lightning.

Quote
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

http://www.weather.gov (http://www.weather.gov)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Jester Fish on July 08, 2015, 01:22:07 AM
Copied from Arctic Background Wildfires http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1232.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1232.0.html)

"By Monday morning, one in every 100 Saskatchewanians was fleeing from fire, with as many as 50 communities turned into ghost towns almost overnight. It's the largest single movement of people in the Wheat Province since the building of the Canadian Pacific Railroad, and according to the Red Cross, it's the largest evacuation they're ever seen."

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Forest+fires+disaster+historic+proportions/11194028/story.html (http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Forest+fires+disaster+historic+proportions/11194028/story.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 08, 2015, 02:17:56 AM
Alaska’s Climate Refugees
Quote
The village of Newtok, Alaska, sits on the shore of the Ninglick River, on increasingly unstable land affected by erosion and melting permafrost. To escape the predicted collapse of the village site, residents will soon have to relocate to more stable ground. Newtok, with a population of approximately of 375 ethnically Yupik people, was founded in 1959, but the Yupik have lived on the coastal lands along the Bering Sea for thousands of years. Today, as global temperatures rise, Newtok and several other remote Alaskan villages are threatened by melting permafrost, widening rivers, coastal erosion, and larger storms that come in from the Bering Sea. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the highest point in Newtok—the school—could be underwater by 2017. A new village site called Mertarvik has been established about nine miles away, though so far families have been slow to relocate. Getty Images photographer Andrew Burton spent several days in Newtok recently, documenting the environment, the new town site, and the Yupik way of life in this threatened remote village. (Also worth reading is this earlier story on The Atlantic: When Global Warming Kills Your God.)
http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/07/alaskas-climate-refugees/397862/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/07/alaskas-climate-refugees/397862/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pikaia on July 08, 2015, 10:07:12 AM
I wouldn't want to be under this smoke in British Colombia!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Feoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov%2Fimages%2Fimagerecords%2F86000%2F86190%2Fbritishcolumbia_tmo_2015186_lrg.jpg&hash=950710100e0d242c5f64e1443f1fd980)

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86190 (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86190)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Paddy on July 08, 2015, 12:20:11 PM
I wouldn't invest in property in any of the areas in red on this map (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/sealevel?lat=11.211&lng=105.414&zoom=7), with the exception of those without easy links to the world's oceans.  Especially the Nile delta, as that's also retreating due to lack of silt deposition (thanks to dams on the Nile).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 12, 2015, 09:31:29 PM
Barrow, Alaska:  The Big Unchill
The Arctic ice is melting faster than ever recorded, the warmth tied to the emissions of modern life. But it is the ancient ways at the top of the world that are most at risk.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/07/11/the-big-unchill/JNbnstRLER1EGErgBEO7MO/story.html# (http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/07/11/the-big-unchill/JNbnstRLER1EGErgBEO7MO/story.html#)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 14, 2015, 02:57:53 PM
Quote
In a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers found that in New England, more people died in years with warmer-than-average summers, while warmer-than-usual winters reduced the numbers of deaths. But warmer winters did not quite offset warmer summers.

"A rise in summer mean temperature of 1 degree C (just under 2 degrees F) was associated with a 1 percent higher death rate, whereas an increase in winter mean temperature corresponded to a 0.6 percent decrease in mortality," Joel Schwartz, a professor of environmental health at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health and colleagues wrote.
Variable, compared with constant, temperatures are also a factor.

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/heres-how-climate-change-might-kill-people-n391226 (http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/heres-how-climate-change-might-kill-people-n391226)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2015, 05:25:11 PM
Canadian lake held back by permafrost will soon disappear.
Quote
The wall of permafrost below the lake is expected to collapse sometime this summer or fall, Kokelj says. While no homes or people live in the immediate area – the lake lies in the northern N.W.T., just over 12 miles from Fort McPherson – campers and hikers are being cautioned to avoid it.
http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/canadian-lake-disappear-permafrost-climate-change (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/canadian-lake-disappear-permafrost-climate-change)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 29, 2015, 11:50:20 PM
UStream webcast tonight, 12:00 AM Thursday, Greenwich Mean Time (GMT)
Quote
@NWS: Tune in tonight 7pmCDT for Town Hall on Climate & Extreme Heat featuring @NOAA & other experts
http://t.co/iGVjtc7f2b (http://t.co/iGVjtc7f2b)
http://t.co/x3sFSPNE7R (http://t.co/x3sFSPNE7R)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pikaia on July 30, 2015, 09:41:00 PM
Thousands of migrants trying to get into Britain are causing severe disruption to transport and social services near the Channel Tunnel.

 "Highways England said there were nearly 6,000 lorries parked on the motorway as part of Operation Stack, which will continue into the weekend."

 "Our social services are working all the hours that they possibly can and we have no more capacity to take many more in the coming weeks if the increase in numbers continues as in the past few weeks."


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33722604 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33722604)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: jai mitchell on July 31, 2015, 07:01:05 PM
Iran city hits suffocating heat index of 165 degrees, near world record

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2015/07/CLP6jGRUYAImdRt.png&w=1484)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/)


compare:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nws.noaa.gov%2Fos%2Fheat%2Fimages%2Fheatindex.jpg&hash=7254bcaf93512e743d90a174804d241a)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on July 31, 2015, 07:13:03 PM
Jai
Is there a way to convert these to wet bulb temps for comparative purposes?


Terrt
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ghoti on July 31, 2015, 07:48:58 PM
http://www.lamtec.com/tb_dew_point_calculator.html (http://www.lamtec.com/tb_dew_point_calculator.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: jai mitchell on July 31, 2015, 08:00:37 PM
Terry,

no, they are measured using different metrics.  See: https://learn.weatherstem.com/modules/learn/lessons/27/07.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on July 31, 2015, 11:40:32 PM
Nice work, jai. I find that many intelligent people find the concept of wbt highly unintuitive. The main thing is to make it clear that it's based on 35 C absolute temperature with 100% humidity.

If people reflect a bit that human internal temperature is 37 C, and that the skin has to be cooler than that to regulate internal temperature, it should be clear to anyone with a smidgen of physics that evaporation, the thing that usually cools the skin at absolute temperatures above 35C, just won't work at 100% humidity. And at much higher temperatures, less than 100% humidity is still lethal.

One thing that might be leading people astray also is that it is obviously not instantly lethal to be exposed to those conditions (and worse); otherwise saunas would be death chambers. But you just don't hang out in a sauna longer than a few minutes (at least I don't), and you certainly don't try to do any heavy labor in one!! It takes about six hours for a wbt of 35 to be 'reliably' lethal.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 04, 2015, 02:24:44 AM
Climate change (via $ of property at risk) made the Miami Herald front page last week.

Ground Zero for climate change
Quote
Yet the report is much more than a mere accountant’s ledger of the costs of climate change. It’s a call to action on the part of the business community, a plea for those who have the most at stake to get involved in the biggest challenge facing this generation and future ones. Mr. Paulson and his colleagues believe that putting the problem in a business perspective should arouse the business community to become more active.
...
...we can't say we weren't warned.
http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article29609719.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article29609719.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 04, 2015, 12:54:13 PM
High-altitude climate change to kill cloud forest plants
Quote
Australian scientists have discovered many tropical, mountaintop plants won’t survive global warming, even under the best-case climate scenario.
http://www-public.jcu.edu.au/news/JCU_149134 (http://www-public.jcu.edu.au/news/JCU_149134)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ritter on August 04, 2015, 05:40:05 PM
High-altitude climate change to kill cloud forest plants
Quote
Australian scientists have discovered many tropical, mountaintop plants won’t survive global warming, even under the best-case climate scenario.
http://www-public.jcu.edu.au/news/JCU_149134 (http://www-public.jcu.edu.au/news/JCU_149134)

No where to migrate to. Same is likely true of far northern and southern latitude species.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Anne on August 06, 2015, 12:36:23 PM
Climate refugees: the communities displaced by global warming – video
Quote
With climate change set to force millions of people from their homes due to more frequent extreme weather events and rising sea levels, one academic has been travelling the world to see how the people facing relocation feel. ‘There’s just no place like home,’ says University of New South Wales lecturer Johannes Luetz. ‘People want to stay where they are,’ he explains, citing work in the Maldives to artificially raise islands. For others, forward planning and community education are just as important as addressing the ‘protection gaps’ prevalent at the international level
Can't seem to embed the video but here's the link:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2015/aug/06/climate-refugees-the-communities-displaced-by-global-warming-video (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2015/aug/06/climate-refugees-the-communities-displaced-by-global-warming-video)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 10, 2015, 01:13:13 AM
Tokyo Heat Wave Lasted Eight Days, Doubling All-Time Record; 55 Confirmed Dead in Japan
http://www.weather.com/news/news/japan-heat-stroke-deaths-illnesses-2015-august-2 (http://www.weather.com/news/news/japan-heat-stroke-deaths-illnesses-2015-august-2)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: solartim27 on August 10, 2015, 03:00:29 AM
Living on Earth radio segment:

The Best and Worst Cities Preparing For Climate Change
http://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=15-P13-00032&segmentID=1 (http://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=15-P13-00032&segmentID=1)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2015, 07:06:03 PM
Heat wave fallout:  Ikea Poland Takes Meatballs Off Menu, Shuts Shop Amid Power Cuts
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/ikea-poland-takes-meatballs-off-menu-shuts-shop-amid-power-cuts (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/ikea-poland-takes-meatballs-off-menu-shuts-shop-amid-power-cuts)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 13, 2015, 01:49:17 AM
Currently tied with 6th longest record.  Texas.

Quote
@NWSHouston: Now 31 days in a row with Houston's high temperature at or above 95 degrees. #txwx #houwx http://t.co/UKE8cBdGCL (http://t.co/UKE8cBdGCL)

https://twitter.com/nwshouston/status/631474048485031936
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2015, 08:55:08 PM
Creating a database of historic places, to aid in recovery efforts after the next disaster.

Mississippi Preserves its History after Hurricane Katrina
Quote
Using GPS data, FEMA’s Environmental Planning and Historic Preservation program surveyed  historic districts, properties and archaeological sites in the lower Mississippi counties most affected by Katrina and created a database that will help emergency management officials in future disasters. They also updated listings for the National Register of Historic Places, and found 58 archaeological sites that had not previously been identified.
https://www.fema.gov/mississippi-preserves-its-history-after-hurricane-katrina (https://www.fema.gov/mississippi-preserves-its-history-after-hurricane-katrina)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 02:54:12 PM
Hawaii's Waikiki Beach Off-Limits After 500,000-Gallon Sewage Spill
Quote
Tourists were warned to stay out of the water on Hawaii's famous Waikiki Beach after officials in Honolulu said half a million gallons of sewage spilled during heavy rains.

Sewage poured from manholes as storm water linked to Tropical Storm Kilo overwhelmed drains, state health officials said.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/travel/hawaiis-waikiki-beach-limits-after-500-000-gallon-sewage-spill-n415386 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/travel/hawaiis-waikiki-beach-limits-after-500-000-gallon-sewage-spill-n415386)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2015, 01:12:06 PM
Will New Orleans' $14.5 Billion Walls Stand Up to the Next Big Storm?
Quote
The immediate aim is to guard against 100-year-storms, or those that have a 1 percent chance of hitting in any given year, through the year 2057. Many observers argued for a tougher 200- or even 500-year-storm standard, but that would have cost billions of dollars more to raise levees even higher.

Instead, the goal is to modify the system as needed. This "adaptive management" will keep engineers busy, since the forecast is for worsening conditions: rising sea levels, a New Orleans that continues to sink as groundwater is pumped from beneath it, and coastal wetlands being destroyed faster than they can be restored.

"It's going to get more and more challenging, and there will be a time when you can't build the walls high enough," Link said.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-katrina-anniversary/new-orleans-14-5-billion-walls-n415816 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-katrina-anniversary/new-orleans-14-5-billion-walls-n415816)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2015, 06:38:58 PM
Fred Grimm: Hurricane angst in the digital age
Quote
Where the hell is El Niño when you need him?

El Niño, who was supposed to fend off these damn hurricanes this season, has abandoned me — all right, all right, not just me — to languish within the dreaded Cone of Doom.

So here I am, sputtering at the computer screen like a mad man, cursing a forecast track that propels Erika across the Leeward Islands to my very vicinity, as if the damn thing was hooked up to a GPS homing device.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/fred-grimm/article32474649.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/fred-grimm/article32474649.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: 1rover1 on August 27, 2015, 10:09:33 PM
Western canada experienceing drought, heat fires, agricultural emergencies, low river flows for hydroelectric power and drinking, limited water use.

http://calgaryherald.com/uncategorized/snowy-canada-suffers-drought-heat-fires-as-earth-gets-warmer (http://calgaryherald.com/uncategorized/snowy-canada-suffers-drought-heat-fires-as-earth-gets-warmer)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2015, 09:26:26 PM
10 Years After Katrina, Will California’s Capital Be The Next New Orleans?
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/24/3690955/sacramento-katrina-levees/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/24/3690955/sacramento-katrina-levees/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2015, 03:30:52 AM
India Times sketches the future of various people.

How will climate change affect your livelihood?
Quote
Here, then, are a few scenarios for a climate-altered future, when rising temperatures are closing in on the threshold of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degree Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels which scientists warn we should not cross.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/48720420.cms (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/48720420.cms)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 07:25:05 PM
Schools Get a First-Hand Lesson in Climate Change, at Their Students’ Expense
Financially strapped school systems and their aging infrastructure are ill-equipped to adapt to more extreme weather like heat, floods and wildfires.
Quote
...Newton stayed open through the heat wave, but dozens of school districts across the country canceled classes or shortened their days because of heat, wildfires or flooding in the last two weeks. It is a glimpse of the challenge that climate change will pose—and in some cases is already posing—to the American educational system.

Heat was the culprit in closings in New England, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and South Dakota. Districts in California, Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest cancelled classes in late August because of encroaching wildfires. A number of Phoenix schools closed last month because a monsoon-like rain caused flooding and power outages.

"Safety, security and comfort are necessities in order to facilitate learning," said Jason Lembke an architect at the Washington, D.C.-based design firm DLR Group who specializes in designing K-12 schools. "Climate change puts all of these at risk."

One of the most pressing concerns, education experts said, is how the country's rapidly aging school infrastructure, two-thirds of which was built in the early to mid 20th century, will stand up to more intense storms, hotter days, floods and escalating wildfires.
...
In Monroe County in South Florida, 65 percent of schools sit on land that would be flooded if sea level rises just one foot. Many others in the state sit just two or three feet above sea level.
...
Scientists estimate that temperatures in New York City could increase by as much as 8.8 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2080s, with the number of days above 90 degrees jumping from 18 today to 76 by that decade. Roughly one-third of schools in the city currently don't have air conditioning. In Boston, only 30 of the city's 126 public schools are air-conditioned.

"When heat gets bad there is no question that kids don't function too well," said Adam Sobel, director and chief scientist of Columbia University's Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate. "There are intrinsic physiological limits beyond which people simply can't do much, and more of the world is going to be reaching those more often."
...
"We typically average three to five days for snow days each year," Scarice said. "But the last few years that's doubled, with eight or nine cancelled days. The temperatures this week were just too dangerous for our young students."
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/10092015/schools-get-first-hand-lesson-climate-change-students-expense-heat-waves-extreme-weather (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/10092015/schools-get-first-hand-lesson-climate-change-students-expense-heat-waves-extreme-weather)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2015, 08:54:48 PM
Global warming causing record rock falls in the Alps, warns expert
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/global-warming-causing-record-rock-falls-in-the-alps-warns-expert-10495432.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/global-warming-causing-record-rock-falls-in-the-alps-warns-expert-10495432.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 03:58:01 PM
I am reminded of the graphic photo I saw in Sequoia National Park of a car, trashed by a bear, that had nothing more than a gum wrapper inside.  As natural food becomes more scarce and bears expand their territory into human habitat, scenes like this will only increase.

Black Bear Breaks Out of Family's Car
A black bear surprised a family by entering its car and destroying the interior.
http://www.nbcnews.com/video/black-bear-breaks-out-of-familys-car-523689027936 (http://www.nbcnews.com/video/black-bear-breaks-out-of-familys-car-523689027936)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2015, 11:41:01 PM
Signs of a New, Hotter Normal in Columbia, South Carolina
http://wxshift.com/news/blog/local-response-to-global-warming (http://wxshift.com/news/blog/local-response-to-global-warming)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2015, 09:46:43 PM
Full moon tonight....

Quote
@robertwolfarth: Rising seas flooding our streets in Miami Beach less than 1 block away from pump station @JohnMoralesNBC6 @wsvn http://t.co/UrobdKIeCk (http://t.co/UrobdKIeCk)

https://twitter.com/robertwolfarth/status/648153689035812864 (https://twitter.com/robertwolfarth/status/648153689035812864)

Quote
@JohnMoralesNBC6: Wow look at all that salt water this morning.  https://t.co/0qKs8aDIR4

https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/648156327466934272

Quote
@dwtitley: We will pay a tax on carbon one way or another.  And it starts now.  @MichaelEMann  https://t.co/rCNAPcRntx

https://twitter.com/dwtitley/status/648169337170358272


Video: https://twitter.com/robertwolfarth/status/648153689035812864
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2015, 09:59:48 PM
And Fort Lauderdale, Florida:
Quote
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (WSVN) -- As night falls in South Florida, people living near Northeast 14th Street and Bayview Drive in Fort Lauderdale are dealing some strange tides due to Sunday's Supermoon.

Water run off has been going into the street and homes that back up in to the Intracoastal Waterway are dealing with water in their backyards as well.
 
Resident Carol O'Brien has lived in the area for several years and told 7News that the water has become a nuisance this time of year. "The last three years, it has gotten progressively worse," she said.

With the heavy rainfall she said, "The parking lots are not usable and people have kind of scrambled around. Fortunately it's off season, so a lot of our owners aren't here."

Much of the flooding can be blamed on the arrival of the Supermoon. In the days before, there are higher than normal tides because the moon is closer to earth, but the Fort Lauderdale residents in this area know to prepare.

One resident was seen moving his car before the parking lot floods out, after he lost a car a few years back in the mess.

Another neighbor put her car on risers to keep it from getting damaged. Others say, they make the best of it. "You can't get in without taking your shoes off," she said. "I have swimming shoes that I wear, I do."

Drivers Sunday are advised to be careful in the early morning and early evening for water run off in lower lying areas.
http://www.wsvn.com/story/30124787/lunar-event-causes-tidal-flooding-in-fort-lauderdale-residencies (http://www.wsvn.com/story/30124787/lunar-event-causes-tidal-flooding-in-fort-lauderdale-residencies)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 02:17:24 PM
Scientists say New York City already faces much worse flood risks due to rising seas
Quote
In a new study, scientists say that the risk of major hurricane or storm-driven flooding in New York City is already considerably higher than it was 1,000 or even 100 years ago, thanks both to a considerable rise in sea level, but also, they say, to changes in the nature of storms.
...
The bulk of the increasing risk is a simple result of rising seas. If they’re higher, then storm surges can attain greater absolute heights and travel farther inland. But there’s also a question of whether something about the characteristics of storms has also changed — bigger or more powerful storms can also fling greater storm surges.

To determine this, the researchers subtracted back out the role of changing sea levels and simply examined the surges generated by the storms. Here, there was not an average difference in storm surge heights across the two eras, but in statistics-speak, there was a “long tail” phenomenon, in which the very rare extreme storms appeared to be getting worse. “The storm surge heights in the tails of the anthropogenic distributions are significantly greater than the storm surge heights in the tails of the pre-anthropogenic storm surge distributions,” the paper concluded.

The study also found that very, very large storms that aren’t so intense in terms of sheer wind speed, but nevertheless drive very large surges, were also more likely in the current era. Storms like Sandy, that is.

“I think the punchline is, we made Sandy much more likely already,” says Mann. “We’re already dealing with greatly elevated risk. We’re not just talking about the future. Climate change is already costing us dearly, but it’ll be a whole lot worse if we do nothing about it.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/28/scientists-say-new-york-city-already-faces-much-worse-flood-risks-due-to-rising-seas/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/28/scientists-say-new-york-city-already-faces-much-worse-flood-risks-due-to-rising-seas/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 08:15:39 PM
More on the above study:

Study: New York City at Higher Risk for Coastal Floods
Quote
A combination of climate-driven sea level rise and stronger tropical cyclones is putting New York City at risk for more and higher floods like those seen during Hurricane Sandy, a group of researchers has found.

In a study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers compared sea level and storm surge heights from 850 to 1800, before significant human influences on the climate, to the period from 1970 to 2005.

The average flood height increased by about 4 feet in New York between the two time periods and with continued warming, larger and more extreme storms along with even higher sea level is likely to cause more frequent and intense flooding.
...
The chance of another storm like Sandy, with a 9-foot storm surge, is now about once every 130 years, compared to once every 3,000 years in the pre-anthropogenic era, Reed said.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/new-york-city-risks-intense-flooding-19501 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/new-york-city-risks-intense-flooding-19501)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2015, 01:00:13 AM
Florida sinkholes: Questions and answers from the Florida Dept. Of Environmental Protection.  :o
http://www.dep.state.fl.us/geology/contactus/faq.htm#7 (http://www.dep.state.fl.us/geology/contactus/faq.htm#7)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2015, 03:48:59 PM
Charleston, South Carolina flooding explanation.  (It's flat, and just above sea level.  And flooding will only get worse.)
http://www.holycitysinner.com/2013/06/27/why-charleston-floods/ (http://www.holycitysinner.com/2013/06/27/why-charleston-floods/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2015, 01:54:05 PM
Article from Charleston, South Carolina addresses local problems.

Area leaders fail to take serious action in face of rising threats from above and below
Quote
Rising seas and temperatures are forcing meteorologists to rethink their assumptions of what’s normal.
http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20151010/PC16/151019935/1006/rain-bombs-and-rising-seas-area-leaders-fail-to-take-serious-action-in-face-of-rising-threats-from-above-and-below (http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20151010/PC16/151019935/1006/rain-bombs-and-rising-seas-area-leaders-fail-to-take-serious-action-in-face-of-rising-threats-from-above-and-below)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2015, 07:04:54 PM
Not just the Caribbean anymore.

Tourism officials can't hide the threat of Sargassum seaweed as it's taking over beaches from Florida to Texas and damaging the environment
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/sargassum-seaweed-beaches-article-1.2401435 (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/sargassum-seaweed-beaches-article-1.2401435)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: John_The_Elder on October 18, 2015, 10:53:45 PM
"Sea level rise will swallow Miami, New Orleans, study finds"
We may have to change some lyrics to "Way down UNDER in New Orleans". :(

http://phys.org/news/2015-10-sea-swallow-miami-orleans.html#nRlv (http://phys.org/news/2015-10-sea-swallow-miami-orleans.html#nRlv)

John
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 27, 2015, 12:50:21 PM
Persian Gulf may soon be too hot for human life, climate simulation shows
Quote
Now a notoriously oil-rich region, the Persian Gulf might become uninhabitable by the next century under the current global warming trends. It is thought that they will create humid heat conditions at a level incompatible with human existence, a new study reveals.

According to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions would create conditions in the Gulf where a healthy person would not be unable to maintain a normal body temperature.

“Our results expose a specific regional hot spot where climate change, in the absence of significant [carbon cuts], is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future,” said Jeremy Pal and Elfatih Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
...
Researchers believe that the Gulf’s geographical position will result in such unlivable moist-but-hot conditions. Authors said that under these circumstances, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca would become life-threatening and almost impossible to undertake by the year 2100.
https://www.rt.com/news/319806-persian-gulf-uninhabitable-climate/ (https://www.rt.com/news/319806-persian-gulf-uninhabitable-climate/)

Edit:  NYT article:  http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/science/intolerable-heat-may-hit-the-middle-east-by-the-end-of-the-century.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/science/intolerable-heat-may-hit-the-middle-east-by-the-end-of-the-century.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 28, 2015, 12:43:00 AM
Quote
Miami Beach has put into action an aggressive and expensive plan to combat the effects of sea level rise. As some streets keep flooding from recent king tide events, the city continues rolling out its plan of attack and will spend between $400-$500 million over the next five years doing so.
...
The sea started boiling up into the street. A major Miami Beach road was under water. Tourists sloshed to hotels through saltwater up to their shins, pants rolled up, suitcases in one hand, shoes in the other.

But one corner of Miami Beach stayed perfectly dry. In Sunset Harbour, which has historically flooded during seasonal high tides, the water was held at bay last month by a radically re-engineered streetscape that will be put to the test again this week with another king tide.

The design — featuring a street and sidewalk perched on an upper tier, 2 ½ feet above the front doors of roadside businesses, and backed by a hulking nearby pump house — represents what one city engineer called "the street of tomorrow."
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article41141856.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article41141856.html)

Part Two:
Beyond the high tides, South Florida water is changing
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article41416653.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article41416653.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ritter on October 28, 2015, 05:36:38 PM
$400 to $500 million spent to postpone the inevitable. Great thinking.  ???
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: solartim27 on October 28, 2015, 08:26:06 PM
They need some pumps in Georgia and South Carolina as well.  Or, we could go to the moon and remove mass so that the tide wouldn't be so high.  We could use the rock as landfill for more coastal construction.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/-strong-coastal-flooding-cause/53249103 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/-strong-coastal-flooding-cause/53249103)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 11, 2015, 02:13:45 AM
A Rising Tide:  Miami is sinking beneath the sea—but not without a fight.
Quote
What can Miamians expect in the coming decades? Harlem thinks in terms of a five-stage timeline. In stage one, only the lowest-lying areas, mostly out-of-sight, out-of-mind natural landscapes, flood frequently. In stage two, more private property is affected. He says Miami-Dade County is now passing from stage one to two. In stage three, the majority of people become affected; at that point, sea level becomes a political issue and collective action will replace individual responses. Impacts become increasingly dire in stage four, until the region arrives at stage five, when the only exposed land in Miami-Dade County and neighboring Broward County to the north will be a string of islands inhabited by a relatively small population of easygoing but hardy hurricane veterans—a place Harlem has nicknamed “Margaritaville.”
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/123216/miami-sinking-beneath-sea-not-without-fight (http://www.newrepublic.com/article/123216/miami-sinking-beneath-sea-not-without-fight)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 26, 2015, 02:17:16 PM
Quote
DHAKA, BANGLADESH, Nov 25 2015 (IPS) - With multiplying impacts of climate change – increasing floods, cyclones, and drought – thousands of climate refugees are migrating to Dhaka. And the city, well beyond its carrying capacity, is bursting at the seams.

The word most often associated with Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is perhaps, “overpopulated.” Supporting more than 14 million people on less than 325 square kilometers (125 square miles) of land, the city’s drainage, waste management and transportation infrastructure is on the brink of collapse.
...
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates 20 million people will be displaced in Bangladesh in the coming five years. That is more than the cumulative populations of Los Angeles, Chicago and New York City. And this should be very worrying.

Even now, many of the half-a-million-plus people who move their families – along with their hopes – to Dhaka, are driven there by the effects of climate change.
http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/11/climate-refugees-and-a-collapsing-city/ (http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/11/climate-refugees-and-a-collapsing-city/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2015, 05:06:34 PM
Per the linked article, pathogens carried by insects into new areas due to climate changes will increasingly make many places around the would less livable:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/27/disease/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/27/disease/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 08, 2015, 02:57:27 PM
Victims of last week's river flooding in the UK have come to the realization their homes are no longer safe.

Quote
Short, medium and long-term effects for residents
Posted at 18:45

One of the problems in Carlisle is that the flood defences were built to withstand a flood of 7.2m - but water levels rose to 7.9m in the early hours of Sunday, says BBC correspondent Danny Savage.

You ask people here, do they think now that flood defences will be built to defend such a height of a river. I don't think they seem very positive about that.

In the short term, affected residents have to think about the security of their homes while they are not in them.

In the medium term, they have to have their houses dried out and getting them back to normal.

And in the long term, residents will have to worry about premiums possibly going up and any impact the floods might have on the ability for them to sell their homes.

They have very little confidence that people will want to live around here, knowing in the back of their mind there's always that risk of flooding taking place. This will have a very long-term effect.
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-35015243 (http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-35015243)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 15, 2015, 07:32:13 PM
The Siege of Miami
Quote
The water on the street was so deep that it was, indeed, hard to tell where it was coming from. Hammer explained that it was emerging from the storm drains. Instead of funnelling rainwater into the bay, as they were designed to do, the drains were directing water from the bay onto the streets. “The infrastructure we have is built for a world that doesn’t exist anymore,” she said.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 09, 2016, 08:00:18 PM
How to stop 450-year-old Abergeldie castle from collapsing into the River Dee
Quote
Fierce storms and floods have made this a very difficult winter for many parts of the UK, not least the owners of a historic castle in Aberdeenshire, close to the Queen’s residence at Balmoral. Some 20 metres of land behind the 450-year-old Abergeldie castle has collapsed into the River Dee, leaving its rear wall just feet from the bank.
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/how-to-stop-a-450-year-old-abergeldie-castle-from-collapsing-into-the-river-dee (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/how-to-stop-a-450-year-old-abergeldie-castle-from-collapsing-into-the-river-dee)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on January 16, 2016, 11:30:03 AM
Coincidentally I thought about that Scottish castle yesterday. It's too late now, but maybe a Twitter/Facebook viral thing should've have been set up asking for Matt Ridley to trade his estate for this one.  ;)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 16, 2016, 07:43:26 PM
1. Quite possibly an illusion but it sure appears that the castle is leaning.

2.With regards to places becoming less livable.........Neven....very sorry to hear of your flooding. :-\
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on January 17, 2016, 08:14:38 PM
Thanks, SH. Everything is under control now and nothing is irreparably damaged. Most of the leaking/flooding was in a part of the house that we hadn't decorated yet, so no floors or walls had to be torn out. It's just a big initial shock, and now a lot of work to fix.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: folke_kelm on January 18, 2016, 08:44:43 AM
Shared Humanity,

That leaning of the castle is an effect from using a wide angle lens, nothing to worry about.

Neven,
Good luck with cleaning up the mess.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 18, 2016, 11:18:11 AM
From here in the Calder Valley I can see , all around me, the costs of these growing flood events. After 2012's catastrophic floods ( 2 weeks apart) I thought the 6ft between me and the then 'record high' river levels was plenty of 'wiggle room' for us in our home. Come dec 26th I saw that '6ft clear' reduced to 3ft clear.......

The extra waters have left issues with infrastructure ( 5 million for the Elland Bridge alone) that raise my concerns even further. Should we end up flooded  ( i.e another 1 metre on top of the 5.76m we saw on Dec 26th) the added volume of water in the basin would clear the valley of all its bridges and impact major highways further ( single file into Hebden Bridge currently due to the A646 peeling off the hill and aiming at the Canal below). This would be an unimaginable catastrophe for my region.

The fact that I could not imagine, prior to the event where I was forced to witness it, the river getting higher than the 2012 record high (4.85m) leaves me concerned that it is my 'understanding' of the situation that is at fault and the extra 1m of flood waters will only be a matter of time in arriving?

In 2012 the flood stood like lakes either side of the river. This time the 'flood' and river moved as one smashing into properties and pulling buildings down. The weight , and added load, of another 1m depth of flood water would scrape clean huge swathes of (now uninsurable) homes and businesses down the valley.

Our P.M. cut the flood budgets by over half a billion since 2010. This flood cost us 5.8 Billion........ well played conservatives and your Austerity savings!!!!!

What I am aiming at here is highlighting a step change in the ferocity of these events over the past couple of years. We all know that these events will not suddenly stop but appear to lack the will to think the unthinkable and prepare for it?

Being a Denier of change prior to it becoming impactful is one thing, fiddling whilst Rome burns another!!!

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on January 18, 2016, 02:46:50 PM
GW
From what you write I'd advise a quick sale (while still insurable), even at a loss if necessary. The >1m flood could be 10 years from now, 10 months or 10 weeks.
My parents for decades lived with 2 factory sites near river level & survived multiple floodings. When the insurance became unsustainable they finally closed up - but would have been far ahead to have ended it 10 years earlier.
I can't imagine living with that level of insecurity.
Best
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Chuck Yokota on January 20, 2016, 04:51:27 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-drought-wfp-idUSKCN0UW1AM (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-drought-wfp-idUSKCN0UW1AM)

Quote
U.N. food agency says 14 million face hunger in southern Africa

About 14 million people face hunger in Southern Africa because of a drought that has been exacerbated by an El Nino weather pattern, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) said on Monday.

The worst-affected country is Malawi, where 2.8 million people, 16 percent of the population, are expected to go hungry, followed by the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar where almost 1.9 million are at risk, WFP said in a statement.

In Zimbabwe, 1.5 million people, more than 10 percent of the population, face hunger, WFP said.

"With little or no rain falling in many areas and the window for the planting of cereals closing fast or already closed in some countries, the outlook is alarming," the U.N. agency said.

"WFP is looking to scale up its lean season food and cash-based assistance programmes in the worst-hit countries but faces critical funding challenges," it added.

The drought has hit much of the region including the maize belt in South Africa, the continent's most advanced economy and the top producer of the staple grain.

South Africa faces its worst drought in decades after 2015 was the driest calendar year since records began in 1904. Expectations of a dire crop this season could force the country to import up to 6 million tonnes of maize, over half of its consumption needs.

Maize prices in South Africa hit record highs on Monday, with the March contract for the white variety scaling a new peak of 5,106 rand ($304) a tonne, according to Thomson Reuters' data.

In countries such as Malawi, much of the maize crop is produced by small-scale farmers, often just to feed their own families. The vast majority are utterly dependent on rainfall as they cannot afford irrigation systems.

The drought has been worsened by an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that occurs every few years with ripple effects around the globe, scientists say.

El Nino events typically bring drier conditions to Southern Africa and wetter ones to East Africa. The dry, hot conditions are expected to persist until the start of the southern hemisphere autumn in April or May.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 25, 2016, 03:57:38 PM
How Is Climate Change Affecting the Philippines?
Quote
Then there’s what these storms mean for the Philippines’ economy. According to a 2013 statement from government officials, a destructive typhoon season costs the nation two percent of its gross domestic product. It costs another two percent to rebuild the infrastructure lost, putting the Philippines at least four percent in the hole each year from tropical storms. And when you’re a nation aspiring to grow and create better lives for your citizens, this regular hit to the economy is the last thing you can afford.
http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/22/climate-change-affecting-the-philippines/ (http://ecowatch.com/2016/01/22/climate-change-affecting-the-philippines/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 26, 2016, 09:47:52 PM
Pacifica, California coast is crumbling under onslaught of big waves, threatening homes and roads.

PACIFICA DECLARES LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO FALLING CLIFFS
http://abc7news.com/weather/pacifica-declares-local-state-of-emergency-due-to-falling-cliffs/1170569/ (http://abc7news.com/weather/pacifica-declares-local-state-of-emergency-due-to-falling-cliffs/1170569/)

City of Pacifica declares local emergency
http://www.ktvu.com/news/80093458-story (http://www.ktvu.com/news/80093458-story)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 31, 2016, 04:21:11 PM
And then there's man-made "less livable"....

London's Population Density Could Match Rio's, Report Finds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/london-s-population-density-could-match-rio-s-report-finds (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/london-s-population-density-could-match-rio-s-report-finds)

London Property Breaks £500,000 Barrier
Homes in the core central postcodes of the U.K.’s capital city now cost an average of more than half a million pounds, according to official data analyzed by Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/uk-property/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/uk-property/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 31, 2016, 10:19:15 PM
A respected local meteorologist explains how sea level rise will make future flooding on the New Jersey coast surpass what was experienced during the recent major storm.

Coastal Flooding: Think it Was Bad This Time?
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Glenns-Blog-Coastal-Flooding-Think-it-Was-Bad-This-Time-366905011.html (http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Glenns-Blog-Coastal-Flooding-Think-it-Was-Bad-This-Time-366905011.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Anne on February 06, 2016, 11:59:10 AM
Climate change causes big problems for big dams.
Quote
Mosul Dam’s predicament is partly a result of the ongoing war; many maintenance workers have not returned there since August of 2014, when ISIS fighters briefly took control. (Iraqi and Kurdish forces soon regained it.) But the main issue is that, like many such dams, the project shouldn’t exist in the first place. Opened in 1986, it was built on unstable gypsum bedrock, requiring grout to be constantly injected into the foundation to prevent the dam’s collapse. That work has ceased. In 2006, long before ISIS began making headlines, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers called Mosul Dam “the most dangerous dam in the world.”
Its collapse could drown as many as five hundred thousand people downstream and leave a million homeless.

Kariba Dam, which straddles the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe
Quote
has been nearly incapacitated by ongoing drought, which has lowered the reservoir’s volume to twelve per cent of its usual capacity. But if the reservoir is refilled, the dam faces the possibility of collapse. It was built in the late nineteen-fifties, and in the years since water flowing through the dam’s six floodgates has carved a three-hundred-foot-deep pit, or plunge pool, at its base. The plunge pool extends to within a hundred and thirty feet of the dam’s foundation; if it reaches the foundation, the dam will collapse. That seems hard to imagine now, with the reservoir at a record-low level. But the Zambezi River Basin, on which the dam sits, is the most susceptible of Africa’s thirteen basins to exceptional droughts and floods, and climate change is intensifying both.

Kariba’s collapse, like Mosul’s, would constitute an epochal event in the history of energy development—the dam industry’s Chernobyl. The ensuing torrent would be four times bigger than the Zambezi’s biggest recorded flood, in 1958, and would release enough water to knock over another major dam three hundred miles downstream, in Mozambique. At least three million people live in the flood’s path; most would die or lose their crops or possessions. About forty per cent of the electricity-generating capacity of twelve southern African nations would be eliminated.
Quote
Even in affluent countries such as the United States—whose dam infrastructure is in sufficient disrepair to have earned a “D” rating from the American Society of Civil Engineers, in 2013—maintenance is often neglected; it’s not likely to fare better in impoverished, corruption-ridden countries such as Zimbabwe or Iraq. Dams can’t be drained, and dismantling them can be as costly as building them. It’s the trap of Industrial Age technology: once mechanized systems supplant natural ones, they must be managed in perpetuity, or else they break down.

More at the link:
http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/one-of-africas-biggest-dams-is-falling-apart (http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/one-of-africas-biggest-dams-is-falling-apart)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2016, 03:25:07 PM
More Rain, Less Snow for U.S. Winters
Quote
To see how winter precipitation is changing, we looked at states that all see notable amounts of snow (sorry, Florida). Our analysis included 2,121 weather stations and looked at days with precipitation from the months that typically see at least 1 inch of snow so we could get a full sense of not just winter, but the snowy shoulder seasons as well. In some places, this snowy season spanned October through April, while in others it only ranged December to February.  ...

Overall, 55 percent of the stations showed a decrease in winter precipitation falling as snow, with the biggest dropoff happening in those shoulder seasons. Rising temperatures mean hotter falls and spring arriving earlier. The result is that precipitation falling in those shoulder months is increasingly likely to fall as rain rather than snow.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-becoming-more-rainy-across-us-20017 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-becoming-more-rainy-across-us-20017)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Anne on February 23, 2016, 05:30:33 PM
Landfill: the toxic timebomb

This article highlights the danger from landfill sites which are at risk from coastal erosion and flooding from SLR. The details relate specifically to the UK but the problem must be widespread.
Quote
Thousands of landfill dumps around the UK are at risk of being compromised by flooding and coastal erosion, sparking fears that dangerous substances could spill into rivers, streets and beaches, academics warn.

The UK faces a “toxic timebomb” after an analysis of its ageing dumps revealed that 2,946 are located in flood plains, experts say.

Furthermore, 1,655 of these “historical” landfill sites contain dangerous materials such as hazardous chemicals and asbestos, according to calculations for The Independent by Dr Daren Gooddy of the British Geological Society (BGS).

Dr Gooddy is especially concerned about these sites because they are in areas with a high flood risk, and they are very unlikely to have a protective lining because they predate tough EU waste regulations introduced in the 1990s. These significantly strengthened requirements to insulate landfill waste from the surroundings and protect it from severe weather.
Quote
“The work we’ve done in the South-east suggests that there has already been widespread pollution from historic landfills,” said Dr Kate Spencer, of Queen Mary University of London. “And at one site we actually found a blue poison bottle from a pharmacist that had a skull and crossbones on it, with a stopper and liquid inside.”

She added: “These sites date back to a time when there were no protective linings, no regulation about what went in and little in the way of records about the contents. Many are on coastlines highly vulnerable to coastal erosion, storm surges and flooding and the big concern is that they will become even more vulnerable as climate change makes storms more frequent and intense.”

Dr Spencer and her PhD student James Brand are working with the Environment Agency to create a “vulnerability” index ranking to identify those sites posing the greatest danger – based on the risk of flooding and the contents of the dump.

Francis O’Shea of University College London, who researched the state of Britain’s historical landfill sites for his PhD at Queen Mary, said: “I was surprised how many historic landfill sites are lying in areas at risk from flooding or coastal erosion. With little information about their current state and what could be released if they flooded this is an area of considerable concern that needs to be investigated.”

An Environment Agency spokesperson said: “We are supporting a research project by Queen Mary University of London to assess the potential impacts of flooding and coastal erosion on historic landfill sites close to the coast. We hope the research findings may provide a useful contribution to future shoreline management plans.”
More, including a map, at the link:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/landfill-dumps-across-uk-at-risk-of-leaking-hazardous-chemicals-a6887956.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/landfill-dumps-across-uk-at-risk-of-leaking-hazardous-chemicals-a6887956.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: johnm33 on February 23, 2016, 07:33:02 PM
"Landfill: the toxic timebomb"
Your post reminded me of this.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/12/26/your-radiation-this-week-no-36/ (http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/12/26/your-radiation-this-week-no-36/)
"What is going on at the St. Louis City/Federal Nuclear garbage dump is the two have more or less run together 100 to 200 feet below the ground, thanks to the water in the floodplain. This is out by the Airport in a poor section of town in a floodplain. As garbage dumps frequently do, it caught on fire.

Now that is not very unusual, however hundreds of tons, if not thousands of tons of highly radioactive elements with unpronounceable names like Amercium, the problem of flammable rocks mixed with or next to the garbage dump is not solvable in this lifetime; or ever. There is no fix.  "
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 26, 2016, 01:03:47 AM
Miami:  Packing up because of climate change
Quote
But Kipnis is taking the science of global warming to heart in a way that relatively few of us do, even in a "ground zero" location for climate change such as Miami Beach.

When I met him last week, he was packing up the white, two-story house, near the center of the island, about a 10-minute walk to shore, and planning to put it on the market.

He, the wife and the sea creatures are moving to higher ground.

"The house is quite valuable right now on Miami Beach and I want to protect my investment," Kipnis told me, adding that he expects flood insurance, already high, to become astronomical.

"It will flood here," he added. "The house will go away."

He wants to get his money out decades before that happens.
Quote
"I know so much science that I'm actually depressed by what I'm seeing," he told me. "I'm shell-shocked by our inability to address even the simplest parts of this."

But here's the second thing I find impressive: Kipnis is doing something with this knowledge.

That's more than most of us can say.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/25/opinions/sutter-miami-climate-change/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/25/opinions/sutter-miami-climate-change/index.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 26, 2016, 01:13:26 AM
Another garbage crisis:

Lebanon: 'River of trash' chokes Beirut suburb as city's garbage crisis continues
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/24/middleeast/lebanon-garbage-crisis-river/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/24/middleeast/lebanon-garbage-crisis-river/index.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 02, 2016, 06:26:10 PM
More on the Mosul Dam in Iraq:

Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing one million people
Quote
Nasrat Adamo, the dam’s former chief engineer who spent most of his professional career shoring it up in the face of fundamental flaws in its construction, said that the structure would only survive with round-the-clock work with teams filling in holes in the porous bedrock under the structure, a process known as grouting. But that level of maintenance, dating back to just after the dam’s construction in 1984, evaporated after the Isis occupation.

“We used to have 300 people working 24 hours in three shifts but very few of these workers have come back. There are perhaps 30 people there now,” Adamo said in a telephone interview from Sweden, where he works as a consultant.

“The machines for grouting have been looted. There is no cement supply. They can do nothing. It is going from bad to worse, and it is urgent. All we can do is hold our hearts.”

At the same time as the bedrock is getting weaker and more porous, the water pressure on the dam is building as spring meltwater flows into the reservoir behind it. Giant gates that would normally be used to ease the pressure by allowing water to run through are stuck.

“The fact that the bottom outlets are jammed is the thing that really worries us,” said Ansari, now an engineering professor at the Luleå University of Technology in Sweden. “In April and May, there will be a lot more snow melting and it will bring plenty of water into the reservoir. The water level is now 308 metres but it will go up to over 330 metres. And the dam is not as before. The caverns underneath have increased. I don’t think the dam will withstand that pressure.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/02/mosul-dam-engineers-warn-it-could-fail-at-any-time-killing-1m-people (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/02/mosul-dam-engineers-warn-it-could-fail-at-any-time-killing-1m-people)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 03, 2016, 09:55:47 PM
They put up "No Wake" signs in the streets to keep cars from flooding people's front doors.

Rising Seas Pull Fort Lauderdale, Florida's Building Boomtown, Toward a Bust
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/01032016/ft-lauderdale-climate-change-global-warming-rising-sea-level (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/01032016/ft-lauderdale-climate-change-global-warming-rising-sea-level)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2016, 07:20:14 PM
“As long as there is demand to live along the ocean, and as long as banks continue giving out loans that will be fully paid before the sea level gets too high, developers will keep building high-rises in areas that will be underwater in just a few decades.”

Taking the High Ground—and Developing It
As sea levels rise, investors in Miami are buying up land with higher elevation, sometimes displacing low-income residents.
Quote
MIAMI—Sea levels are rising here at the rate of an inch a year, and if trends continue, they will rise six feet well before the end of this century. By then, the ocean will have subsumed the city’s low-lying, densely-populated areas—the wealthy coastal enclave of Coral Gables, much of Little Havana, downtown Miami, and of course Miami Beach.

There is nothing Miami can do to stop this. Even if global emissions dropped dramatically today, the city would still be locked in for 15 feet of sea-level rise over the next 200 years, says Jeff Onsted, an associate professor at Florida International University’s Sea Level Solutions Center. The rising water won’t be produced by a single weather event, but will gradually become a part of residents’ lives. And while major cities such as New York can build seawalls, Miami is defenseless because it’s built on porous limestone that would allow ocean water to come up from under the city. Already, yards and streets remain flooded even days after rainstorms have rolled through the city.

But this looming threat isn’t detectable in the massive ongoing construction along the waterfront in Miami. There’s $10 billion of development underway in the city’s downtown, featuring new luxury condos and stores, while the beachfront across Biscayne Bay in Miami Beach is still the hottest property in the area. In the Coconut Grove neighborhood along the water in Miami, a new high-rise is going up right across the street from the Miami City Hall. There, I asked Mayor Tomás Regalado if developers are going to stop building on the waterfront, considering the predicted rise in sea level. “The developers?” he recoiled. “Of course not.”
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/03/taking-the-high-ground-and-developing-it/472326/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/03/taking-the-high-ground-and-developing-it/472326/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on March 22, 2016, 04:56:11 AM
That article from the atlantic lays it out.

Howard Kuker just earned himself an entry to the 'Que se ficieron' thread

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 10, 2016, 06:39:51 PM
57 tube stations at high risk of flooding, says London Underground report
Busy stations including Waterloo, King’s Cross and London Bridge among the most threatened, unpublished review states
Quote
“If the underground goes underwater we might finally see some real action on climate change from Westminster politicians,” said Guy Shrubsole, of Friends of the Earth. “Increasingly torrential rainfall of the sort experienced by people in the north of England this past winter poses a major danger to the tube. It’s clear that the government’s national flood resilience review must prepare the UK’s infrastructure for ever wetter weather, and take radical action to cut the pollution that’s changing our climate.”
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/10/57-tube-stations-high-risk-flooding-london-underground-report (http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/10/57-tube-stations-high-risk-flooding-london-underground-report)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 30, 2016, 12:03:40 AM
This massive seagrass die-off is the latest sign we’re failing to protect the Everglades
Quote
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, Florida — The shallow coastal waters of Florida Bay are famed for their crystal clear views of thick green seagrass – part of the largest stretch of these grasses in the world.

But since mid-2015, a massive 40,000-acre die off here has clouded waters and at times coated shores with floating dead grasses. The event, which has coincided with occasional fish kills, recalls a prior die-off from 1987 through the early 1990s, which spurred major momentum for the still incomplete task of Everglades restoration.
...
Fourqurean and government Everglades experts fear they’re witnessing a serious environmental breakdown, one that gravely threatens one of North America’s most fragile and unusual wild places. When most people think of the Everglades, they envision swamps — but seagrass is just as important, if less romanticized.
...
And although there is at least some scientific dissent, Fourqurean and fellow scientists think they know the cause of the die-off. It’s just the latest manifestation, they say, of the core problem that has bedeviled this system for many decades: Construction of homes, roads, and cities has choked off the flow of fresh water. Without fast moves to make the park far more resilient to climate change and rising, salty seas, the problem will steadily worsen.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/27/this-unprecedented-event-has-now-happened-twice-massive-seagrass-die-off-hits-florida-bay/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/27/this-unprecedented-event-has-now-happened-twice-massive-seagrass-die-off-hits-florida-bay/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 03, 2016, 03:35:15 PM
Florida's governor gets a schooling on climate change from California's governor during a recent visit.

JERRY BROWN TO RICK SCOTT: “START DOING SOMETHING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE”
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/208428-jerry-brown-rick-scott-start-something-climate-change (http://floridapolitics.com/archives/208428-jerry-brown-rick-scott-start-something-climate-change)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 17, 2016, 09:15:14 PM
The American West Is Rapidly Disappearing
Quote
A new study released Tuesday by the Center for American Progress (CAP) and Conservation Science Partners (CSP) found that every 2.5 minutes, the American West loses a football field worth of natural area to human development.  ...

Advocates for seizing and selling off public lands often argue that private landowners will be better stewards of the land. Yet the data from the analysis shows that development on private lands accounted for nearly three-fourths of all natural areas in the West that disappeared between 2001 and 2011, while public lands like national parks and wilderness areas had some of the lowest rates of development.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/17/3778905/disappearing-west/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/17/3778905/disappearing-west/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 19, 2016, 03:15:04 AM
In Houston, Texas, some of the biggest political donations come from engineers.

Climate change, runaway development worsen Houston floods
Quote
Extreme downpours have doubled in frequency over the past three decades, climatologists say, in part because of global warming. The other main culprit is unrestrained development in the only major U.S. city without zoning rules. That combination means more pavement and deeper floodwaters. Critics blame cozy relations between developers and local leaders for inadequate flood-protection measures.

An Associated Press analysis of government data found that if Harris County, which includes Houston, were a state it would rank in the top five or six in every category of repeat federal flood losses — defined as any property with two or more losses in a 10-year period amounting to at least $1,000 each.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/5b28b342061344d7ad6e7395a56e7cce/climate-change-runaway-development-worsen-houston-floods (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/5b28b342061344d7ad6e7395a56e7cce/climate-change-runaway-development-worsen-houston-floods)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 28, 2016, 10:43:30 AM
Flooded homeowners sue Houston, alleging negligence
Quote
Activists blame worsening flooding in metropolitan Houston on unrestrained development that has swallowed up well over 15,000 acres of water-absorbing wetlands since 1992. They accuse developers, engineers and builders of leveraging cozy relations with politicians to skimp on flood-prevention measures.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/fbb50ca4b94c4aca82e402f228ee2aed/flooded-homeowners-sue-houston-alleging-negligence (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/fbb50ca4b94c4aca82e402f228ee2aed/flooded-homeowners-sue-houston-alleging-negligence)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2016, 12:33:44 AM
Homeowners kept in dark about climate change risk to houses, says report
Quote
The risk that houses in some areas of Australia are likely to become uninsurable, dilapidated and uninhabitable due to climate change is kept hidden from those building and buying property along Australia’s coasts and in bushfire zones, a Climate Institute report says.

The report says there is untapped and unshared data held by regulators, state and local governments, insurers and banks on the level of risk, but that most homebuyers and developers are not told about the data and do not have access to it.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/30/homeowners-kept-in-dark-about-climate-change-risk-to-houses-says-report (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/30/homeowners-kept-in-dark-about-climate-change-risk-to-houses-says-report)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: timallard on May 31, 2016, 08:22:51 AM
Just to mention the Altithermal period coined by archeologists for a 1C warming over ~1200-years from 8k-4k ybp and seems related to the same astronomical forcing that dried out the Sahara.

In the USA it moved tribes to water refuges for most of the midwest & west to such an extent empty to get attention.

Over this period the Mohaves of 3-corners along the Lower Colorado River changed from hunter-gather to flood agriculture by 4k-ybp which they carried forward due to the loss of local forests and the change to what is yet semi-arid to arid lands.

There was a strip of desert from West Texas almost to the Canadian border ... we'll outdo this event by far when things catch up.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 01, 2016, 04:01:52 PM
We need to find alternatives to HFC's as we make hot places more livable in the short term.

World's Air Conditioning Boom Would Worsen Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Study
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/world-s-air-conditioning-boom-would-worsen-greenhouse-gas-emissions-n583816 (http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/world-s-air-conditioning-boom-would-worsen-greenhouse-gas-emissions-n583816)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Anne on June 01, 2016, 05:39:44 PM
Extreme warnings issued that Lake Baikal could 'drain dry like the Aral Sea'
Basically a row over energy supply

Quote
Newspaper Izvestia this week was blunt in assessing the eco-damage threat to Baikal, a natural reservoir which contains around 20% of the world's unfrozen freshwater.
'Baikal might share the destiny of the Aral Sea,' it stated. 'Construction of three hydro power stations on the Selenga River and its tributaries can cause the unique lake to dry out.'
The 25 million year old lake - a UNESCO world heritage site - is 'on the edge of environmental catastrophe and if certain measures are not taken, it might disappear just like the Aral sea.'
The impact of proposed Mongolian hydro projects could also be to threaten the Buryatian capital city, Ulan-Ude, in the event of an accident to one of three planned dams.
Environmental activist Sergey Shapkhayev warned: 'Potential damage from the third hydro power station which will be located on the Eg River (a Selenga tributary) could cause a huge catastrophe. Hydrological experts believe that this power station is the most dangerous of all. 'This power station will be located in the seismically active part of Mongolia. And any seismic activity can cause  all the stored water to wash away part of Mongolia and in half a day it would reach Ulan-Ude' - a city with a population of 415,000. At the same time, speed of water will be compatible to tsunami.'
The warnings come amid new hopes in Russia that ways can be found to persuade Mongolia not to go ahead with the the hydro schemes - see our earlier story here (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0675-key-victory-in-campaign-to-save-lake-baikal-from-mongolian-eco-threat/).
Izvestia said that the claims about an Aral-like denuding of Baikal were aired at a closed doors meeting at the Energy Ministry. Crucial to the dams not being built are an offer acceptable to Mongolia of guaranteed cheap energy - from Russia.
The Siberian Times adds drily that "The comparison with the Aral Sea [...] appears far-fetched even allowing for a grave threat now facing Baikal."

More here in The Siberian Times (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/features/f232-extreme-warnings-issued-that-lake-baikal-could-drain-dry-like-the-aral-sea/).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 01, 2016, 09:40:06 PM
Bowing to pressure, FEMA revises their flood maps for New Orleans.

New Orleans’s New Flood Maps: An Outline for Disaster
Quote
TODAY, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season — an understandably anxious time for New Orleans. That’s why I was briefly elated — and then, horrified — when, earlier this year, the federal government declared most of New Orleans safe from flooding.

According to new maps issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, even vast areas of the city that are below sea level — including parts of the Lower Ninth Ward, Lakeview and New Orleans East that sat under 10 feet of water after Hurricane Katrina — need not worry about the next storm.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/opinion/new-orleans-new-flood-maps-an-outline-for-disaster.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/opinion/new-orleans-new-flood-maps-an-outline-for-disaster.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 08, 2016, 01:29:05 AM
Homeowners seek solutions to the flooding in Houston, Texas.

Lots of anger, few solutions at flooding town hall
Quote
Tempers boiled over at a town hall meeting hosted by U.S. Rep John Culberson Monday in Braeswood Place to talk about flooding on Brays Bayou.

In an auditorium at Pershing Middle School, about 200 residents gathered from the neighborhoods hardest hit by floods in May 2015 and April 2016, when some homes soaked under feet of water. It’s a multi-billion dollar-problem for which Houston currently has no quick solution. And no answers surfaced Monday.

Culberson’s town hall was a place to vent. Many attendees shared similar stories of sinking thousands of dollars in repairs to ruined homes that can never be rented or sold. They feared they would be ruined next time the water came in.

 “It’s a hardship to keep our property,” Tim Ryan from Meyerland told Culberson from the audience.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/houston/article/Much-anger-few-solutions-at-flooding-town-hall-7967540.php (http://www.houstonchronicle.com/houston/article/Much-anger-few-solutions-at-flooding-town-hall-7967540.php)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: timallard on June 13, 2016, 03:18:47 PM
Throughout the Andes, there is becoming no water ... today. Snow-capped peaks no longer, all their snowfields are gone. Seasonal variations are off and crops can't be grown anymore not even potatoes, fields for animals dry with no water for them to drink.

It's global warming altering jetstreams when an entire mountain range stops getting water from the Atlantic.

This is also happening in the Himalaya, it's just taking longer to melt away, farmers there are freezing water for use from the lack of spring meltwater no longer flowing because the glaciers have retreated to higher altitudes and don't melt as early in artificial "glaciers" and "stupas" both allowing cold fall air to freeze water for spring.

California will follow this pattern it seems with a permanent drought from The Blob which likely will never go away now.

Americans will be the last to do something wise, most were dreaming a single El Niño would fix it ... nope, next dream or will reality force them to redo their water-rights?

Not likely, they are drilling for the bottom of aquifer water to grow high water-use crops for profit as we watch them ignore what they need to do for money & politics creating a far larger disaster when it hits the fan, already the state is depopulating, keep an eye on that form of "becoming less livable".

"A climate journey - The Andes: The farmers' struggle "; 2:53; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mycMbtdL1HA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mycMbtdL1HA)

"Artificial Glaciers in the Himalayas | Global 3000 "; 3:39; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sS4bto9pMA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sS4bto9pMA)

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 21, 2016, 01:00:49 PM
Phoenix, Arizona.   From last fall:

Sustainability in Extreme Desert Heat: Is Our Time Here Running Out?
Quote
So the question is, how can a place like this survive as one of the largest cities in the nation as climate change takes over?

Let’s just assume, for arguments sake, we figure out the energy piece of the puzzle. We all just stay inside our nice, air-conditioned homes and offices for much of the year, not worrying too much about the sweltering heat.

Then, what about water? What about drought? What do we do if the Colorado River supply chain is significantly reduced, or worse, dries up?
http://wxshift.com/news/blog/sustainability-in-extreme-desert-heat-is-our-time-here-running-out (http://wxshift.com/news/blog/sustainability-in-extreme-desert-heat-is-our-time-here-running-out)


Edit --  and this from last week.  Includes an interactive map to see what 1,001 cities' summers will be like by 2100.*
*If current emissions trends continue
Southwest, Plains to Roast in ‘Potentially Historic’ Heat Wave
http://wxshift.com/news/southwest-plains-to-roast-in-potentially-historic-heat-wave (http://wxshift.com/news/southwest-plains-to-roast-in-potentially-historic-heat-wave)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on June 21, 2016, 10:46:55 PM
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/21/the-increasingly-dangerous-hothouse-local-reports-show-it-felt-like-170-f-77-c-in-bhubaneswar-on-june-13th-2016/

Looks like wbt 35C has been exceeded again
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on June 21, 2016, 11:39:16 PM
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/21/the-increasingly-dangerous-hothouse-local-reports-show-it-felt-like-170-f-77-c-in-bhubaneswar-on-june-13th-2016/

Looks like wbt 35C has been exceeded again

And by a whole 6°C
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on June 22, 2016, 06:24:58 AM
I feel for the people in Bhubaneshwar. I visited there forawhile in summer two score and more years ago, nice town then, hot enuf, but nowhere near conditions today. Cyclones do hit around there too, I remember being in one near Calcutta in the seventies, which took a severe toll on Bhubaneshwar. Another time i caught the Coromandel express down the coast, nice ride, pretty country at least back then, but apparently better done in winter (ha!) these days.

Sea level rise will hit hard around there.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Laurent on June 22, 2016, 10:40:15 AM
They have a problem... we have it too !
I found that misery index, very interesting to visualize the wet bulb.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-281.23,22.06,2070/loc=85.318,20.527
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 28, 2016, 01:43:17 PM
I've driven through many such places, where the narrow valley between two steep mountainsides leaves barely enough width for the road and a small house.  And the driveway is a tiny bridge over a "creek" that runs through the valley.

Why the W.Va. floods were so deadly and destructive
Quote
Steep mountains, narrow valleys and a deadly train of storms came together in West Virginia  to cause the horrendous flooding that killed 23 people last week, forced thousands to evacuate and destroyed or damaged thousands of homes and businesses.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/06/27/west-virginia-floods-storm-train/86429020/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/06/27/west-virginia-floods-storm-train/86429020/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on June 28, 2016, 02:09:08 PM
More from the same source:

Quote
The vicious line of storms dumped "one-in-1,000-year" amounts on the state last week. This "train track" formed last Thursday along a weather boundary between cooler air to the northeast and moist, warm air to the southeast, said weather service meteorologist Dave Wert of the Blacksburg, Va., office.

Some spots picked up more than a foot of rain in only a few hours. That amount of rain in such a short amount of time is something expected once in 1,000 years, the weather service said.

As if the 100-year events all over the globe aren't enough.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2016, 01:03:03 PM
The July 4 weekend is usually a big beach and boating holiday in the U.S..  But not this year, in parts of Florida.

Video: 
"State of Emergency Declared as Algae Blooms Invade Florida Waterways

The release of millions of gallons of water with blue-green algae is shutting down some of the nation's most beautiful beaches, and spoiling miles and miles of other Florida waterways."
http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/state-of-emergency-declared-as-algae-blooms-invade-florida-waterways-716336195893 (http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/state-of-emergency-declared-as-algae-blooms-invade-florida-waterways-716336195893)

More here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,471.msg70727.html#msg70727 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,471.msg70727.html#msg70727)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on July 01, 2016, 01:56:21 PM
Looks like a good destination for the Inhofe family.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 07, 2016, 12:56:11 AM
“What do you do if and when the water is up so high you can’t provide services – when do you stop charging taxes?  If your house is underwater, can you stop paying taxes on it?”

Water world: rising tides close in on Trump, the climate change denier
Quote
In 30 years, the grounds of Mar-a-Lago could be under at least a foot of water for 210 days a year because of tidal flooding along the intracoastal water way, with the water rising past some of the cottages and bungalows, the analysis by Coastal Risk Consulting found.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/06/donald-trump-climate-change-florida-resort (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/06/donald-trump-climate-change-florida-resort)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 12, 2016, 12:17:04 AM
Brief article, but don't miss the comments discussing the option of building a sea wall around Florida (and grouting the heck out of the limestone base).  Funny/satirical.

Miami’s plan to deal with climate change: Make developers pay up
Quote
According to the Miami New Times, four county commissioners have proposed placing “impact fees” on developers who build in environmentally sensitive areas.
http://grist.org/article/miamis-plan-to-deal-with-climate-change-make-developers-pay-up/ (http://grist.org/article/miamis-plan-to-deal-with-climate-change-make-developers-pay-up/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 13, 2016, 03:04:14 PM
Climate change: Advisers warn of climate change domino effect
Quote
In a 2,000-page report, the Climate Change Committee says flooding will destroy bridges - wrecking electricity, gas and IT connections carried on them.

The committee also warns that poor farming means the most fertile soils will be badly degraded by mid-century.

And heat-related deaths among the elderly will triple to 7,000 a year by the 2050s as summer temperatures rise.

The UK is not prepared, the committee says, for the risks posed by climate change from flooding and changing coasts, heatwaves, water shortages, ecosystem damage and shocks to the global food system.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36765925 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36765925)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 13, 2016, 04:03:15 PM
To be fair, it's not just the U.K. Nobody is prepared.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 14, 2016, 01:16:48 AM
Entire Town of Arborfield, Saskatchewan, Evacuated After Floodwaters Breach 'Hold Back Road'
https://www.wunderground.com/news/arborfield-saskatchewan-flooding (https://www.wunderground.com/news/arborfield-saskatchewan-flooding)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 16, 2016, 04:20:15 AM
See Reply #157 above....

Emails Show Some Florida Building Officials Still in Denial About Climate Change
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/emails-show-some-florida-building-officials-still-in-denial-about-climate-change-8600355 (http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/emails-show-some-florida-building-officials-still-in-denial-about-climate-change-8600355)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on July 16, 2016, 04:16:43 PM
From weatherundedrground.

Very interesting historical placement of the current huge floods in China.  And a comparison to other weather disasters of the last couple of decades.

Quote
A historic flood event continues in China, where torrential monsoon rains along the Yangtze River Valley in central and eastern China since early summer have killed 237 people, left 93 people missing, and caused at least $22 billion in damage, the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters said on Thursday. According to the International Disaster database, EM-DAT, this would make the 2016 floods China's second most expensive weather-related natural disaster in history, and Earth's fifth most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disaster ever recorded. Only China's 1998 floods, with a price tag of $44 billion (2016 dollars), were more damaging than the 2016 floods. ...Some 147,200 houses have been destroyed by this summer's floods in China, and over 21,000 square miles of farmland had been inundated--an area the size of Massachusetts and Vermont combined. An additional $1.3 billion in flood damage from Typhoon Nepartak occurred in China in July...........

....More damaging flooding to come this summer in China
The flooding damage in China is likely to grow this month, as new rounds of torrential monsoon rains hit the nation in the coming weeks. "Although the water levels in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are slowly dropping, most are still above warning levels," Zhang Jiatuan, a spokesperson for the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, told reporters on Thursday. He said the situation was "still quite critical" as central and eastern parts of China are expected to see a fresh round of heavy rain over the days to come. The latest precipitation forecast from the GFS model predicts a wide swath of 12+" of rain will fall over much of the flood-affected area over through the end of July (Figure 6.)

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/earths-5th-costliest-nonus-weather-disaster-on-record-chinas-22 (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/earths-5th-costliest-nonus-weather-disaster-on-record-chinas-22)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 17, 2016, 03:09:07 AM
Living Shorelines: A Shield Against Rising Seas
Quote
Today, 14 percent of U.S. coastline is rimmed by concrete. The specter of rising seas will prompt the construction of even more expensive and obtrusive manmade barriers, like the embankment planned for Lower Manhattan. In an effort to cut costs and preserve ecosystems, the Army Corps of Engineers is looking to expedite the approval of living shorelines, making it easier to develop natural structures able to fend off storm surges.
https://nexusmedianews.com/living-shorelines-guard-coastal-communities-47ba1f5d169e
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 17, 2016, 08:57:02 PM
U.S.:  100-Degree Days (37.8°C) Are More Common Than You Think
Geographical location, elevation and humidity are factors that can contribute to triple-digit heat in the U.S.
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/hot-temperature-100-degree-summer
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 19, 2016, 09:37:15 PM
Soaring Temperatures Will Make It Too Hot to Work, UN Warns
Quote
Searing temperatures caused by climate change may cost global economies more than $2 trillion by 2030, restricting working hours in some of the poorest parts of the world, according to United Nations research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-19/soaring-temperatures-will-make-it-too-hot-to-work-un-warns (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-19/soaring-temperatures-will-make-it-too-hot-to-work-un-warns)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 24, 2016, 01:36:42 PM
New kinds of precautions are needed to avoid tragedy in extreme heat.

South Bend, Indiana:
14 dogs die in Roseland when truck's air conditioning fails
Handler had brought golden retrievers for local AKC show
https://www.google.com/amp/www.southbendtribune.com/news/local/dogs-die-in-roseland-when-truck-s-air-conditioning-fails/article_598223e1-b036-5fa8-9091-f723758ad226.amp.html (https://www.google.com/amp/www.southbendtribune.com/news/local/dogs-die-in-roseland-when-truck-s-air-conditioning-fails/article_598223e1-b036-5fa8-9091-f723758ad226.amp.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 24, 2016, 02:47:39 PM
New kinds of precautions are needed to avoid tragedy in extreme heat.

South Bend, Indiana:
14 dogs die in Roseland when truck's air conditioning fails
Handler had brought golden retrievers for local AKC show
https://www.google.com/amp/www.southbendtribune.com/news/local/dogs-die-in-roseland-when-truck-s-air-conditioning-fails/article_598223e1-b036-5fa8-9091-f723758ad226.amp.html (https://www.google.com/amp/www.southbendtribune.com/news/local/dogs-die-in-roseland-when-truck-s-air-conditioning-fails/article_598223e1-b036-5fa8-9091-f723758ad226.amp.html)

A far to vivid example of the "Dog Days".
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on July 24, 2016, 04:40:56 PM
129F (54C) two days in a row.  That's cooking.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/eastern-hemispheres-alltime-temperature-record-kuwait-fries-in-54 (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/eastern-hemispheres-alltime-temperature-record-kuwait-fries-in-54)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 25, 2016, 01:47:33 PM
Quote
Howard Glaser:  How it feels in NY today: ”
https://twitter.com/hglaser1/status/757267848301608960
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Laurent on July 25, 2016, 06:05:44 PM
Don't know the place, don't want to live there around 56°c (Misery index) in US...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/07/24/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-94.80,36.69,1257/loc=-92.419,36.464
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 25, 2016, 06:27:19 PM
close by (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/07/24/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-94.78,36.81,3000/loc=-92.428,36.481):

36.44° N, 92.52° W✕
260° @ 3 km/h
57.4 °C (feels like)

image from Google Maps (location may have shifted a spot)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 27, 2016, 05:13:45 PM
How did we survive before air conditioning?  Perhaps we were smarter then.

How air-conditioning made America — and how it could break us all
Quote
The environmental and social costs of AC

AC comes with a host of problems. It is undoubtedly true that air-conditioning saves lives, especially among vulnerable populations like the elderly, but it also comes at a high price — and not just when it comes to your electric bill.
http://grist.org/food/how-air-conditioning-made-america-and-how-it-could-break-us-all/ (http://grist.org/food/how-air-conditioning-made-america-and-how-it-could-break-us-all/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2016, 03:02:04 AM
In Alaska's Remote Towns, Climate Change Is Already Leaving Many Hungry
Quote
Warmer winters, early springs, a shift in typical storm patterns has hampered the ability of Native Alaskan families like Gologergen’s to harvest the subsistence foods they’ve relied on for more than a millennium. The debate here isn’t over whether or not climate change is happening. For these rural communities, the looming question is whether they can continue to survive there.

It’s a similar story in tiny rural Buckland, Alaska, with a population of nearly 420. Here, worries over walrus harvests are swapped for concerns about declining caribou herds. In April, the state closed caribou hunting there to non-locals.

“Right now, a lot of people are out of caribou meat,” says Percy Ballot Sr. “Caribou used to migrate and winter in our area. Now some of the herd stays where they are, some move to the west and east. We’ve been trying to go out and look for some and haven’t seen any.”
http://www.opb.org/news/article/npr-in-alaskas-remote-towns-climate-change-is-already-leaving-many-hungry/ (http://www.opb.org/news/article/npr-in-alaskas-remote-towns-climate-change-is-already-leaving-many-hungry/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2016, 04:06:07 PM
“We always have estimated flood risk by believing that magnitude and frequency would repeat, meaning that climate and other conditions, such as land use, were relatively stable. But now, with the changes in the climate, that is no longer valid."

People Who Estimate Floods Can’t Assume The Climate Isn’t Changing Anymore
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/07/28/3802705/flooding-impacts/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/07/28/3802705/flooding-impacts/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2016, 09:33:19 PM
Climate Change Is Hell on Alaska's Formerly Frozen Highways
A critical artery is threatened by thawing permafrost.
Quote
“It’s the single biggest geotechnical problem we have,” said Jeff Currey, materials engineer for the northern region of Alaska’s Department of Transportation. “The Romans built roads 2,000 years ago that people are still using. On the other hand, we have built roads that within a year or two, without any maintenance, look like a roller coaster because they are built over thaw-unstable permafrost.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-02/the-alaskan-highway-is-literally-melting (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-02/the-alaskan-highway-is-literally-melting)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 07, 2016, 10:02:53 PM
New tool shows climate change in the U.S. at the county level.

Got an Extreme Weather Event? NOAA Tool Searches for Climate Link
Searchable database shows whether climate change made weather events more or less likely.
Quote
This year has seen a relentless streak of new temperature and climate records, as well as extreme weather events such as the deadly floods in Houston, Baltimore and West Virginia, a "heat dome" over the Midwest and the massive Sand fire blazing near Los Angeles.

Now, a new searchable tool from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows, county by county, whether or how climate change will change the likelihood of these extreme events in the decades to come.

The project is an updated version of NOAA's interactive Climate Explorer, part of the agency's U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit. David Herring, the toolkit's program manager, said the site was designed to allow local governments, small business owners and natural resource managers to plan for a future of warming-fueled extreme weather.

The Explorer includes maps and charts on how temperature and precipitation patterns could change on a local level through 2100. It includes historical, observed data from the mid-1900s to the present, as well as projected trends based on climate models. These were created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and downscaled to provide location-specific information.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02082016/extreme-weather-event-noaa-tool-climate-change-link-global-warming-wildfires-heatwaves-floods
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2016, 01:17:49 AM
Washington, D.C.’s temperature has not fallen below 70 degrees for a record 34 days and counting
Quote
For more than a month, D.C.’s temperature has failed to dip into the 60s even once. This is the longest such period in 145 years of record-keeping.

Officially, the mercury has remained at 70 degrees or higher for 34 straight days, two days more than the prior longest streak, ending Aug.15, 1980.

The temperature is not forecast to fall below 70 this entire week (and maybe longer), which means this year’s record-long streak is likely to easily exceed 40 days, separating itself by a great distance from the previous longest periods.

The lack of cooling has practical implications for quality of life.

When the temperature stays this high around the clock, it places more demands on our cooling systems and energy consumption rises.

Our lakes and rivers stay warm, which can lead to harmful algal blooms.

For the homeless and people without air conditioning, the cumulative stress from the lack of cooling can increase the likelihood of heat-related illness.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/08/d-c-s-temperature-has-not-fallen-below-70-degrees-for-a-record-34-days-and-counting/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/08/d-c-s-temperature-has-not-fallen-below-70-degrees-for-a-record-34-days-and-counting/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2016, 01:37:34 AM
Humanity Just Ate Through Planet's Annual Resource Budget Faster Than Ever
   ...and it's only August. That's the fastest pace yet
Quote
Earth Overshoot Day—the day on which people worldwide have officially used up more natural resources like air, food, and water than the planet can regenerate in a year—has come early.

The 2016 threshold was hit on Monday, making it the fastest pace yet, according to a new report by the Global Footprint Network, which measures the dubious milestone every year.

That's five days earlier than last year, about five weeks earlier than in 2003, and months earlier than it was in 1987, when it fell on December 19. In 1961, the global population didn't even use up 100 percent of the world's natural resources, according to the network. But the next decade propelled the planet into an era of overconsumption, the group said.

"This is possible because we emit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than our oceans and forests can absorb, and we deplete fisheries and harvest forests more quickly than they can reproduce and regrow," Global Footprint Network said in a statement.
http://commondreams.org/news/2016/08/08/humanity-just-ate-through-planets-annual-resource-budget-faster-ever (http://commondreams.org/news/2016/08/08/humanity-just-ate-through-planets-annual-resource-budget-faster-ever)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: OrganicSu on August 13, 2016, 06:11:53 PM
For me Earth Overshoot Day was in the first seconds/minutes of January 1st not on 8th August. I provide a few of my reasons below.
Earth Overshoot Day is a measurement of the Ecological Footprint of all humanity calculated by considering all of the biological materials consumed and all of the carbon dioxide emissions generated.

Oil – 70% of current oil deposits are from the Mesozoic period, 65 million years to 150 million years ago. To replace the oil used until the Overshoot moment we need to sequester enough carbon material and wait circa 100 million years to make that consumed oil. However we are not really sequestering any carbon – most land space is covered by farming and no carbon material is left on the ground. The amount of oil we should use in 1 year to keep the status quo should be 1/100,000,000 of current reserves.

Coal – Takes circa 300 million years to form naturally so we should use only 1/300,000,000 of current coal reserves in a year. As Earth is not really sequestering any carbon material we are not beginning the process of forming new coal.

Iron – Most commonly used metal, circa 2 billion tonnes of raw ore are processed yearly. Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute has suggested iron ore could run out within 64 years based on an extrapolation of 2% growth per year. Iron ore was formed circa 1.8 billion years ago in environmental conditions vastly different to now – i.e. Earth is not making any noticeable quantities of new iron ore. It is not really possible to sustainably consume a finite resource.

CO2 Absorbtion – The Ecological Footprint takes into account CO2 absorption. From what I could find out it assumes the oceans are an endless CO2 sink and rising acidity is not an issue. To calculate how much CO2 can be sustainably emitted we need to look at how much the ocean can absorb without the aciditiy levels rising.  As some other carbon sinks are now intermittently failing (e.g. Amazon) the calculation needs to take into account what levels of CO2 can be emitted without raising airborne CO2 or the acidity of the oceans.

If we were to take a target of 350ppm CO2 (safe level as per Mr. Hansen) in not too many years from now, then the real Overshoot calculation on CO2 should be how much we can emit, while bringing us to 350 CO2ppm in X number of years and allowing the oceans to return to an acidity level comfortable for it's current inhabitants. My finger in the air calculation tells me we overshoot in the first seconds of the year, or maybe we start in overshoot on the first second.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 14, 2016, 11:39:34 PM
Hitting the plastic slopes: Climate change pushes ski resorts to 'weatherproof'
Quote
Ski and snowboarding resort operators in Canada and around the world are increasingly focused on "weatherproofing" their businesses as climate change threatens their supply of fresh powder. 

"It's become a common topic in many resort destinations, not only here, but in Europe, the United States," said Peter Williams, director of Simon Fraser University's Centre for Tourism Policy and Research.

The term "weatherproofing" refers to efforts by resorts to offer alternative activities to skiing and snowboarding so they don't lose customers as climate change makes winter snowfall less reliable.

The depth of these efforts received renewed attention earlier this year when renowned British Columbia resort Whistler Blackcomb announced a $345-million plan to become "weather independent," but the industry started hearing "early warnings" of serious climate change implications at least a decade ago, Williams said.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ski-resorts-weather-proofing-climate-change-1.3715284 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ski-resorts-weather-proofing-climate-change-1.3715284)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 14, 2016, 11:42:36 PM
Survey: two-thirds of Great Barrier Reef tourists want to ‘see it before it’s gone’
https://theconversation.com/survey-two-thirds-of-great-barrier-reef-tourists-want-to-see-it-before-its-gone-62103
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bosbas on August 20, 2016, 10:39:10 PM
Threatened By Rising Seas, Alaska Village Decides To Relocate

"Shishmaref will be underwater within the next three decades, and if we do not do anything, we'll be forced to move to another city like Nome or Kotzebue or Fairbanks or Anchorage, and not many people will move to the same place. So that means our unique community of Shishmaref will soon die out because we have our unique dialect of Inupiat Eskimo language, our unique Eskimo dancing, our unique gospel singing translated in Inupiat. All that will soon die out if we do not move as a community."

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/18/490519540/threatened-by-rising-seas-an-alaskan-village-decides-to-relocate (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/18/490519540/threatened-by-rising-seas-an-alaskan-village-decides-to-relocate)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2016, 02:17:31 AM
Maryland:  37 Baltimore County Schools Closed Monday Due To New AC Policy
Quote
Thirty-seven Baltimore County schools will be closed Monday due to the the county’s new policy that requires those without air conditioning to cancel classes when it’s too hot.
...
Days off for heat will be eligible for a waiver of three [of the] 180 days school year mandate.

Most but not all Baltimore County schools are expected to have air conditioning by 2017.
http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2016/08/28/37-baltimore-co-schools-closed-monday-due-to-new-ac-policy/ (http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2016/08/28/37-baltimore-co-schools-closed-monday-due-to-new-ac-policy/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 29, 2016, 02:41:17 PM
Wealthier countries will increasingly migrate to an air conditioned indoors to survive the excess heat. Poorer countries will????
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on August 29, 2016, 03:27:14 PM
Wealthier countries will increasingly migrate to an air conditioned indoors to survive the excess heat. Poorer countries will????

Attempt to migrate to richer countries?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on August 30, 2016, 01:52:25 AM
Wealthier countries will increasingly migrate to an air conditioned indoors to survive the excess heat. Poorer countries will????

Attempt to migrate to richer countries?

We will see how that works out for both them and the rich countries over the next 20-40 years.  Somewhat badly for all involved I would anticipate.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on August 30, 2016, 01:53:22 AM
Wealthier countries will increasingly migrate to an air conditioned indoors to survive the excess heat. Poorer countries will????

Attempt to migrate to richer countries?

We will see how that works out for both them and the rich countries over the next 20-40 years.  Somewhat badly for all involved I would anticipate.

Indeed.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2016, 04:45:31 AM
Well, it seemed like a good idea....

After heat closes schools for a second day, Baltimore County school board to revisit policy
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/education/blog/bs-md-co-heat-closure-policy-20160829-story.html (http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/education/blog/bs-md-co-heat-closure-policy-20160829-story.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: JimD on August 30, 2016, 05:38:05 PM
Flooding and sea level rise.

Here is a snapshot of what is going on right under our noses in the US.  Think what it will be like in a few years.  There is absolutely no way we can find the money and resources to fix this.  Abandonment of such places will be our only option.

https://www.thenation.com/article/low-water-mark/ (https://www.thenation.com/article/low-water-mark/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2016, 10:23:13 PM
JimD


Great article!


The one following it that deals with racial inequality in New Orleans since Katrina was also an eye opener, at least for me.


https://www.thenation.com/article/white-new-orleans-has-recovered-from-hurricane-katrina-black-new-orleans-has-not/ (https://www.thenation.com/article/white-new-orleans-has-recovered-from-hurricane-katrina-black-new-orleans-has-not/)

When we demonize or ignore climate victims based on race, it seems particularly harsh. I never knew about all the undamaged "affordable housing" that was demolished after the storm. What kind of insanity was that.

Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: greylib on August 31, 2016, 01:46:47 PM
Flooding and sea level rise.

Here is a snapshot of what is going on right under our noses in the US.  Think what it will be like in a few years.  There is absolutely no way we can find the money and resources to fix this.  Abandonment of such places will be our only option.

https://www.thenation.com/article/low-water-mark/ (https://www.thenation.com/article/low-water-mark/)
If you're poor enough, any kind of shelter is better than none. Even in an area that floods every few years: nobody else wants to live there, so it's going to be cheap.

From the article:
Quote
In North Troy after Irene, Ted tried to figure out another way. He looked into flood insurance for his trailer, hoping to stay and also to protect himself. He learned that his trailer needed to be bolted down on a cement slab to qualify.
Would it make sense to make the trailers able to float, rather than bolt them down? Tether them to stop them drifting perhaps, but able to rise over the floodwater. You'd need a Big Red Lever of some sort to separate from the utilities, but once you've done that you have a very handy life raft.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2016, 02:09:31 PM
Study:  Stronger hurricanes and SLR will bring Florida a 25-47% increase in storm surge by 2080-2100, "with highly non-linear response of population at risk."

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1728-8
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: mati on August 31, 2016, 03:48:25 PM
Quote
If you're poor enough, any kind of shelter is better than none. Even in an area that floods every few years: nobody else wants to live there, so it's going to be cheap.

From the article:
Quote
In North Troy after Irene, Ted tried to figure out another way. He looked into flood insurance for his trailer, hoping to stay and also to protect himself. He learned that his trailer needed to be bolted down on a cement slab to qualify.
Would it make sense to make the trailers able to float, rather than bolt them down? Tether them to stop them drifting perhaps, but able to rise over the floodwater. You'd need a Big Red Lever of some sort to separate from the utilities, but once you've done that you have a very handy life raft.

or you can make a house that is floatable yet tethered:

http://www.archdaily.com/259629/make-it-right-house-morphosis-architects (http://www.archdaily.com/259629/make-it-right-house-morphosis-architects)

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2016, 02:57:02 AM
India Ganges floods 'break previous records'
Quote
The monsoon floods in India's Ganges river this year have broken previous records, officials have told the BBC.
They said water levels reached unprecedented levels at four locations in northern India.
The highest record was in Patna, the state capital of Bihar where flood waters reached 50.52m (166ft) on 26 August, up from 50.27m in 1994.
Floods across India this year have killed more than 150 people and displaced thousands.

"We have also recorded unprecedented flood levels at Hathidah and Bhagalpur of Bihar state and Balliya of Uttar Pradesh," chief of India's Central Water Commission GS Jha said.
"In all these four places, the floods crossed the previous highest flood level and they all were unprecedented."
Bihar is one of the worst flood-hit states in India with at least 150 deaths and nearly half a million people evacuated.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37217679 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37217679)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2016, 08:40:41 PM
Flooding of Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Already Begun
Quote
NORFOLK, Va. — Huge vertical rulers are sprouting beside low spots in the streets here, so people can judge if the tidal floods that increasingly inundate their roads are too deep to drive through.

Five hundred miles down the Atlantic Coast, the only road to Tybee Island, Ga., is disappearing beneath the sea several times a year, cutting the town off from the mainland.

And another 500 miles on, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., increased tidal flooding is forcing the city to spend millions fixing battered roads and drains — and, at times, to send out giant vacuum trucks to suck saltwater off the streets.

... The inundation of the coast has begun. The sea has crept up to the point that a high tide and a brisk wind are all it takes to send water pouring into streets and homes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/science/flooding-of-coast-caused-by-global-warming-has-already-begun.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/science/flooding-of-coast-caused-by-global-warming-has-already-begun.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2016, 04:00:27 AM
“They’ve been telling us it was coming for days. Last time, we had eight or 10 hours to get out.”

River continues to rise as Cedar Rapids braces for more flooding
Quote
In nearby Cedar Rapids, the residents of about 5,000 homes had been advised to evacuate before the floodwaters hit Monday night. Mayor Ron Corbett said in an interview that he hopes residents will heed the warning, especially after what they saw in 2008.
...
The stakes would be even higher in Cedar Rapids if authorities hadn’t led an effort to buy out the owners of 1,350 homes that flooded in 2008. About 45 acres of green space now line the river where many of those homes once stood. Corbett said that at the time, it was the second-biggest such buyout in U.S. history, after only the New Orleans buyouts after Hurricane Katrina.

Corbett talked on a sidewalk across the street from where construction workers were filling temporary barricades with sand to try to keep floodwater from pouring into a neighborhood near downtown. The area was supposed to be protected by a floodwall by now, but the city’s huge flood-protection project has been held up by a lack of millions of federal dollars.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2016/09/24/iowa-flooding-forces-mandatory-evacuation-palo-cedar-rapids/91022028/ (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2016/09/24/iowa-flooding-forces-mandatory-evacuation-palo-cedar-rapids/91022028/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2016, 09:30:20 PM
The mind-boggling New Orleans heat record that no one is talking about
Quote
During one of the country’s hottest summers, New Orleans quietly set a mind-blogging record. On 43 nights, the temperature did not drop below 80 degrees in New Orleans, according to the Louisiana state climatologist.

It blows the previous record out of the water — 13 nights in 2010. It’s also incredible considering in an average summer, New Orleans has just 2.1 nights at or above 80 degrees.

This record should be getting much more attention than it has been.

On 43 nights in 2016, the temperature in New Orleans did not drop below 80 degrees. This is a new record by far -- the previous was 13 nights in 2010.

Very warm overnight temperatures are hard on your body, let alone your utility bills. The elderly are particularly at risk during these times, as is the entire homeless population and anyone with an illness. You might be inclined to raise a finger to mention that air conditioning negates these effects, but around 30 percent of New Orleans’s population lives in poverty. If a family is lucky enough to own an air conditioner, they probably cannot afford to use it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/09/26/the-mind-boggling-new-orleans-heat-record-that-no-one-is-talking-about/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/09/26/the-mind-boggling-new-orleans-heat-record-that-no-one-is-talking-about/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on September 26, 2016, 11:40:31 PM
The mind-boggling New Orleans heat record that no one is talking about
Quote
During one of the country’s hottest summers, New Orleans quietly set a mind-blogging record. On 43 nights, the temperature did not drop below 80 degrees in New Orleans, according to the Louisiana state climatologist.

It blows the previous record out of the water — 13 nights in 2010. It’s also incredible considering in an average summer, New Orleans has just 2.1 nights at or above 80 degrees.

This record should be getting much more attention than it has been.

On 43 nights in 2016, the temperature in New Orleans did not drop below 80 degrees. This is a new record by far -- the previous was 13 nights in 2010.

Very warm overnight temperatures are hard on your body, let alone your utility bills. The elderly are particularly at risk during these times, as is the entire homeless population and anyone with an illness. You might be inclined to raise a finger to mention that air conditioning negates these effects, but around 30 percent of New Orleans’s population lives in poverty. If a family is lucky enough to own an air conditioner, they probably cannot afford to use it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/09/26/the-mind-boggling-new-orleans-heat-record-that-no-one-is-talking-about/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/09/26/the-mind-boggling-new-orleans-heat-record-that-no-one-is-talking-about/)
Mind-boggling indeed.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 27, 2016, 12:51:35 AM
I lived in Gretna Louisiana ( accross the bridge from New Orleans )one summer without an air conditioner. I couldn't sleep on a bed because I would wake up in a pool of sweat. I learned to sleep on the concrete slab floor because it would pull enough heat to allow me to sleep. It's the humidity that is intolerable. I also lived in the Central Valley of Calif. when I was a youngster, a swamp cooler worked there but in Louisiana it was worse than useless.
 I can't imagine conditions getting worse but I quess until you've lived it you have a hard time walking in another mans shoes.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: solartim27 on September 29, 2016, 12:05:01 AM
Another problem for Florida tourism.  The virus has popped up sporadically since 2009.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article104606196.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article104606196.html)
Quote
Miami-Dade has its first 2016 case of locally acquired dengue fever.

Health officials announced Tuesday night someone in the county contracted dengue fever. That person was treated and is expected to recover fully.

The health department is checking if people close to the infected individual also have the virus. Although this is Miami-Dade’s first case of 2016, it’s Florida’s second.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article104606196.html#storylink=cpy (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article104606196.html#storylink=cpy)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: budmantis on September 29, 2016, 07:35:00 AM
And here I thought all I had to worry about was the Zika virus!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on October 12, 2016, 01:14:38 AM
Just ran into this local article from six months ago, about the problems cropping up on the shore of the Dead Sea. It seems the area is on its way to becoming unlivable. The article is long, but it's interesting and sad to read about the mindset of those living there, imagining that if they only build more ambitious tourism projects, everything will come back.

"The Dead Sea: A dramatic look at Israel's endangered natural wonder"

http://www.haaretz.com/st/c/prod/global/deadsea/eng/5/ (http://www.haaretz.com/st/c/prod/global/deadsea/eng/5/)

Quote
Fields of sinkholes instead of beaches, roads swept away by floods, large industrial ponds instead of a sea and one overarching question: What can be done so that things don’t get even worse in the next 20 years?
Quote
On the other side of the road is an overnight parking lot that was the first location to be closed when the sinkholes appeared, 18 years ago. The place now looks like a set for a war movie, full of old props: large craters, shattered buildings that collapsed into the sinkholes, dead trees, pipes and cables hanging in midair. Nearby is a gas station that was closed in 2014 and a bit to the north is the large bridge spanning the Arugot Stream. It was built at great expense using advanced technology in an attempt to contend with the sinkholes, but only six years passed before it, too, was closed.
...
The whole story is encapsulated in a large Excel file at the Geological Survey of Israel (GSI), a file which is constantly being updated. Its key data show that in 1976, the Dead Sea lay -398 meters below sea level, whereas in December 2015 it had reached almost -430 meters. And the rate of change is rapidly accelerating – in the first two decades since 1976, the water level dropped by 6 meters each decade, in the third decade it fell by 9 meters and in the last decade it plummeted by 11 meters.
...
The declining water level that creates the sinkholes is causing another geological phenomenon – the deepening of the area’s stream beds – which is less talked about but no less critical. As sea levels drop and the shoreline recedes, the streams’ drainage area lengthens. This intensifies the force of the water flowing down from the hills to the sea, deepening and widening the stream beds with each successive flood. Route 90, which serves as somewhat of a dam between the mountains and the sea, is hit by powerful floods every winter. The bridges spanning these streams cannot withstand the new circumstances. For local residents, this means that every winter will bring more frequent and longer-lasting closures of the road
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2016, 01:34:25 AM
Monmouth County's coastal evacuation map is first of its kind in New Jersey
Quote
Just before the fourth anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, Monmouth County has instituted a tiered coastal evacuation plan designed to simplify messaging during a storm surge threat.
http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/item/97948-monmouth-countys-coastal-evacuation-zone-map-is-first-of-its-kind-in-nj (http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/item/97948-monmouth-countys-coastal-evacuation-zone-map-is-first-of-its-kind-in-nj)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Jester Fish on October 17, 2016, 08:59:16 PM
And so what began decades ago is now making the news more frequently.....as noted in the article, the potential contamination catastrophes are immense when the Earth melts out from under your factory, tailings pond, slag pile, and nuke plant.....not to mention your house!

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia (https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Hefaistos on October 24, 2016, 04:27:47 PM

30,000 people live on and around Calcutta’s landfill site at Dhapa.

"Inextinguishable fires burn all day and night, which pollute the air. They are so ubiquitous that the workers no longer complain about the fumes, and municipal authorities don’t bother to put them out.

Sovan Chatterjee, the mayor of Kolkata, says: “Of course there are fires. There are so many waste materials there; they are going to be bad for the environment.”

... “The fires come on their own, from the garbage itself because of biogas,” he says, referring to gasses produced as a result of fermentation of organic waste. “They burn all day and all night, every day of the year.”
...
At Dhapa thousands of plots of land are farmed for vegetables, the swamps have become fish farms and in the huts, women fry puchkas, a popular local street food. Though no one has ever measured how much of Kolkata’s food comes from the landfill site, it is an open secret that the city’s markets are stocked with produce from Dhapa."

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/24/difficult-breathe-inside-kolkata-india-rubbish-dump-permanently-fire (https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/24/difficult-breathe-inside-kolkata-india-rubbish-dump-permanently-fire)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pikaia on October 25, 2016, 11:55:37 AM
"In Central Asia, a crisis is brewing over water and electricity. The Soviet-era system in which the five countries of the region shared their resources has broken down, leaving some facing water shortages and others chronic power cuts. Instances of small-scale unrest have already occurred, but some warn this could be just the beginning."

No obvious connection to climate change, but...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-37755985 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-37755985)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 26, 2016, 01:54:19 PM
Why we should not demonize residents who refuse to evacuate during hurricanes
Quote
The reasons for staying home are complex. They are frequently not due to ignorance or complacency, but a result of the enormous disruption and even hardship that vacating one’s home presents. In other cases, they reflect a failure of meteorologists to characterize the range of dangerous hazards a hurricane poses, in addition to solely wind, which residents may not adequately appreciate.

It would serve meteorologists and other storm communicators well to try to see the situation through the public’s eyes, recognizing that the public cannot be lumped into one, single group. Residents of coastal communities impacted by Hurricane Matthew are composed of different age, ethnic and income groups. Each has its own, unique story; and each group makes evacuation decisions challenging for different reasons.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/25/why-we-should-not-demonize-residents-who-refuse-to-evacuate-during-hurricanes/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/25/why-we-should-not-demonize-residents-who-refuse-to-evacuate-during-hurricanes/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 26, 2016, 04:48:53 PM
Sandy's Lessons Lost: Jersey Shore Rebuilds in Sea's Inevitable Path
Quote
As people in towns like Toms River rushed to rebuild, they did not retreat from the coast. Instead, at the waterfront, so much—houses, businesses and sand dunes—is coming back bigger, stronger and taller than ever before.
...
 Sandy's storm surge broke through the barrier island in the town of Manatoloking, next to Toms River, allowing the bay to rise 4 feet in an hour. But FEMA did not include such a scenario in its model.
...
...even without storm surges there will be daily tidal inundation on Jersey Shore waterfront properties within decades.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25102016/hurricane-sandy-new-jersey-shore-rebuild-climate-change-rising-sea-chris-christie
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: solartim27 on October 26, 2016, 05:04:46 PM
Why we should not demonize residents who refuse to evacuate during hurricanes
Then you need to consider where they evacuate to, there were several examples of evacuees getting caught in inland flooding.  I also recall some horrible road acidents during past evacuations.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 01, 2016, 08:52:58 PM
Climate Change Is Already Forcing Americans to Move
Quote
As global warming causes more extreme weather and sea-level rise, coastal communities around the U.S. are starting to think about whether, and how, to help people move away from the water. But one group of Americans is already being displaced by climate change -- not through innovative urban and land-use planning, but official indifference.

Storms and flooding are damaging or destroying a growing share of the nation's 1.1 million public housing units. Those homes are getting replaced slowly or not at all, forcing the people who lived in them to leave their neighborhoods and often their cities. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-31/climate-change-is-already-forcing-americans-to-move (https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-31/climate-change-is-already-forcing-americans-to-move)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 04, 2016, 12:17:45 AM
Episode 2 in Season 2 of “Years of Living Dangerously” examines how Miami, Florida is (or is not) dealing with sea level rise, and the changing threat of Atlantic hurricanes.
    TV series on the National Geographic Channel.

http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/ (http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on November 05, 2016, 04:34:56 AM
Filth in the water.

http://www.ewg.org/research/exposing-fields-filth-hurricane-matthew (http://www.ewg.org/research/exposing-fields-filth-hurricane-matthew)

"After Hurricane Matthew, which lasted from Oct. 10 to 17, Waterkeeper Alliance coordinated 20 aerial surveys to assess flooding impacts on swine and poultry CAFOs in eight North Carolina counties. Pilots flew in and around floodplains along the Neuse River, Black River, Cape Fear River, and various smaller creeks and swamps. Photos taken during the surveys documented the inundation of 10 swine operations (39 barns), 26 poultry facilities (102 barns) and 14 waste pits."

Sickening.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 07, 2016, 08:10:15 PM
City of Montreal pours $7.3M into saving skating rinks from climate change
Quote
The City of Montreal is launching a new program to save outdoor ice skating rinks from climate change.

According to documents from the city, it's getting harder and harder for Montrealers to strap on their skates and get ice time at their local outdoor rink because mild winters make maintenance a challenge.

That's why the city is putting $7.3 million into a program to help improve the quality of ice at municipal rinks and ensure they're open for longer periods of time.

The money will be spent over a period of three years and includes the possibility of installing refrigerated and covered rinks in "strategic" areas around the city, according to the city's three-year investment plan released last week.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/skating-rink-montreal-climate-change-1.3839058 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/skating-rink-montreal-climate-change-1.3839058)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Jester Fish on November 07, 2016, 08:50:39 PM
Hopefully, the refrigeration is powered by hydro and not a carbon source as that would just be too ironic...  :o :o
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2016, 05:29:52 PM
 It's all about the tides.

The Supermoon and Global Warming: A Taste of Things to Come
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/11/17/this_week_s_supermoon_did_have_one_effect_flooding.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/11/17/this_week_s_supermoon_did_have_one_effect_flooding.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Hefaistos on November 21, 2016, 11:40:57 AM
"Jakarta at 30 million: my city is choking and sinking.
Flooding, similarly, has become more frequent: from roughly every five years, to every rainy season, and now to almost every time it rains for more than three hours.

What is not visible is even worse: the city is sinking. Land subsidence is happening at a rate of 3cm per year in some parts of the city, 20cm in others. Not only is this causing more flooding, but it has the potential to damage the city’s drainage, piping and sewerage systems. The sea level in Jakarta Bay is rising 6mm every year.

Because only 50% of households have piped water – the lowest in Indonesia – residents rely on raw water supply, draining the natural aquifer beneath the city and causing the entire urban area to sink. Ironically, run-off is increasing, as deforestation upstream from the city and concretisation within are causing water to be wasted in alarming amounts."

Jakarta and other megacities in Indonesia facing inundation in coming years.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/21/jakarta-indonesia-30-million-sinking-future (https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/21/jakarta-indonesia-30-million-sinking-future)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2016, 02:16:08 AM
The Areas America Could Abandon First
Quote
So far this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has spent $1.1 billion on what are called Individual Assistance payments, which help households recover from natural disasters. There are no limits on the number of times a household can apply, so the program isn't just a safety net; for some people, it's effectively a subsidy to live in areas that are especially vulnerable to hurricanes, floods and storm surges.

That hasn't gone unnoticed in Washington. In 1999, a Nebraska congressman introduced a bill preventing some properties with multiple claims from getting help -- not just disaster relief, but also subsidized flood insurance. Two years later, the George W. Bush administration's first budget proposed denying aid to the "worst offending repetitive loss properties." Under President Barack Obama, FEMA proposed reducing disaster aid for public buildings damaged more than once in the previous decade if local governments hadn't done anything to protect them.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-29/the-areas-america-could-abandon-first (https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-29/the-areas-america-could-abandon-first)


See also the discussion in the thread under this tweet:
Matt Lanza:  Articles like this exemplify problems people have with media in 2016; "The Areas America Could Abandon First:"
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/805847599320354818 (https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/805847599320354818)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 06, 2016, 01:42:20 PM
I would just like to comment that much of the U.S. has become less livable and the forecast is for continued deterioration in living conditions for the next 4 years.

I only hope that Trump only screws up my country and leaves the rest of you pretty much alone.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 09, 2016, 12:19:32 AM
Climate change could render Sudan 'uninhabitable'
Quote
Sudan's ecosystems and natural resources are deteriorating.

Temperatures are rising, water supplies are scarce, soil fertility is low and severe droughts are common. After years of desertification, its rich biodiversity is under threat and drought has hindered the fight against hunger.

This burden is affecting not only the country's food security and sustainable development, but also the homes of many Sudanese families.

Dust storms -- known locally as "Haboob" have also increased in this region. Moving like a gigantic thick wall, it carries sand and dust -- burying homes, increasing evaporation to a region that's already struggling to preserve water supplies, as well as eroding valuable fertile soil.

Experts say that without quick intervention, parts of the African country -- already one of the most vulnerable in the world -- could become uninhabitable as a result of climate change.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/07/africa/sudan-climate-change/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/07/africa/sudan-climate-change/index.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 09, 2016, 02:58:36 AM
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk.

Boomtown, Flood Town
"Climate change will bring more frequent and fierce rainstorms to cities like Houston. But unchecked development remains a priority in the famously un-zoned city, creating short-term economic gains for some while increasing flood risks for everyone."
https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ghoti on December 09, 2016, 03:33:59 AM
Another great video showing vast amounts of sunny weather tide related flooding in Miami. Yale Climate Connections video. AND they are still building new homes where the flooding on the streets is up to the axles of the cars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRGuQKv4gPU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRGuQKv4gPU)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2016, 06:17:35 PM
“Glacial collapse is unprecedented in western Tibet, which for decades has resisted the effects of climate change while glaciers in southern and eastern Tibet have melted at an accelerating rate.”

Climate Change Likely Caused Deadly 2016 Avalanche In Tibet
http://www.eurasiareview.com/09122016-climate-change-likely-caused-deadly-2016-avalanche-in-tibet/ (http://www.eurasiareview.com/09122016-climate-change-likely-caused-deadly-2016-avalanche-in-tibet/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 29, 2016, 01:00:02 AM
Major flooding in UK now likely every year, warns lead climate adviser
A year after severe floods in wake of Storm Desmond, John Krebs says ministers still have no coherent long-term plan to deal with it
Quote
Lord Krebs said it was important for both government and households to learn from the run of floods that have affected many parts of the country in recent years. “Almost every year there has been some more or less major flooding event and that is a key message,” he said. “We have to now get it embedded that this is something that will happen somewhere most years.”

Increased flooding is the biggest impact of climate change for the UK, but the CCC has also warned that the nation is poorly prepared for deadly annual heatwaves, water shortages and difficulties in producing food. However, Krebs, who is stepping down from his CCC role after eight years in January, said: “There is still hope this country will make the progress it needs to make.”
...

Krebs also said ministers would regret cutting flood protection measures for new homes. New laws passed earlier in 2016 aim to drive the building of 1m new homes but Krebs, an independent member of the House of Lords, said he was disappointed ministers had rejected proposals to cut the risk of the homes flooding and make them cheap to heat.

“The imperative to build more homes was overriding anything that might get in the way and I think the housebuilders got at the Department for Communities and Local Government to say all of this is going to be costly and difficult,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/26/major-flooding-in-uk-now-likely-every-year-warns-lead-climate-adviser-storm-desmond (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/26/major-flooding-in-uk-now-likely-every-year-warns-lead-climate-adviser-storm-desmond)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pikaia on December 29, 2016, 05:52:47 PM
"A major new academic study has warned of the risk to buildings in urban areas across Russia's permafrost zone caused by climate change. The Russian-US analysis says a worst-case scenario could lead to a 75-95% 'reduction in bearing capacity throughout the permafrost region by 2050'."

http:///science/casestudy/features/f0280-warning-of-collapse-of-buildings-in-siberias-permafrost-cities-in-next-35-years/ (http:///science/casestudy/features/f0280-warning-of-collapse-of-buildings-in-siberias-permafrost-cities-in-next-35-years/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 29, 2016, 09:54:59 PM
U.S.: new NOAA tool lets you see how global warming will affect your own ZIP code.
Click on the map in the linked page below to go to the tool-page.

Explore Warming Where You Live
http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/12/explore-warming-where-you-live/ (http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/12/explore-warming-where-you-live/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 01, 2017, 06:03:42 PM
Australia:  Coastal storms, extreme heat and flooding in 2016.

"No one ever thought the storm would come from the north," says Warren Hughes, a resident of Wamberal on the NSW Central Coast. "I was petrified."

East coast low and record heat: It's 2016, a year of weather extremes for Sydney
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/east-coast-low-and-record-heat-its-2016-a-year-of-weather-extremes-for-sydney-20161228-gtivqp.html (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/east-coast-low-and-record-heat-its-2016-a-year-of-weather-extremes-for-sydney-20161228-gtivqp.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2017, 05:08:06 AM
Millions in China learn to live with smog 'airpocalypse'
Quote
...Winter is typically the most polluted season in China because the country burns more coal to power heaters. Manufacturers also often increase production ahead of the Chinese New Year, this year it will be on Jan. 28, also increasing pollution levels. Cold air inversions during the winter months can also trap smog lower to the surface.
...
In a nod to the growing concerns of parents in the region and the outrage starting to spill into Chinese society, the Beijing city government announced Jan. 6 in local media that a new initiative was being started to fund the installation of air purifiers in kindergartens, primary and middle schools in the capital. The move will likely mollify families, many of whom have already invested thousands of dollars in their own home air purifying systems and masks to combat pollution at home. ...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/07/millions-in-china-learn-to-live-with-smog-airpocalypse.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/07/millions-in-china-learn-to-live-with-smog-airpocalypse.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2017, 09:19:51 PM
New protection from flooding for the New York City subway.

Jason Rabinowitz:  The new @NYCTSubway flood gates at South Ferry look a bit more substantial than the plywood they put up during Sandy.
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/820341054436179971
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on January 16, 2017, 01:46:54 PM
New XKCD: 4.5 Degrees

http://m.xkcd.com/1379/ (http://m.xkcd.com/1379/)

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 16, 2017, 04:17:06 PM
From the China thread: 

Quote
Beijing's smog: A tale of two cities
Beijing (CNN)The first thing Jiang Wang does when she wakes up in the morning is check on her daughter to make sure she's breathing clean air.
Next, it's time to start making breakfast. She's already made sure all the groceries come from an organic farm.
She'll wash her produce with tap water filtered through a separate treatment system under her sink.
But that water isn't for drinking -- there's imported bottled water for that.
This is how Wang typically starts her day, trying to minimize the effects of the toxic environment in Beijing.
"From the moment you open your eyes till the moment, you rest in the evening," she says, "you have to pay really (close) attention, to the air, to the water, to the food you eat."
...
With their newfound wealth, China's upper and middles classes have been able to travel abroad and see more of the world -- and in turn learn about the dangers of pollution and how to avoid it.

But on the street during a red alert it is still commonplace to see ordinary people wearing a scarf over their mouth and nose, rather than a protective mask.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/15/health/china-beijing-smog-tale-of-two-cities/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/15/health/china-beijing-smog-tale-of-two-cities/index.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 16, 2017, 04:57:51 PM
New protection from flooding for the New York City subway.

Jason Rabinowitz:  The new @NYCTSubway flood gates at South Ferry look a bit more substantial than the plywood they put up during Sandy.
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/820341054436179971


I read a detailed Army Corps report a couple of years ago that concluded the New York subway system would be rendered inoperable with an additional 1 meter sea level rise due to frequent flooding during storms. The cost of repeated repairs would become prohibitive. These steel doors lend credence to that report. Fixed barriers of all types (sea walls, sewer caps etc. will be the last futile attempt to forestall the inevitable, the retreat from the shores by humanity across the planet.

The more frightening conclusion was the vulnerability of waste removal systems, our sewers. These systems fail completely with flooding. Miami Beach already has sewers back up during high tides. The smell of human feces is pervasive at these times. This is an urban health risk that will render cities unlivable due to diseases.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 08, 2017, 01:08:19 AM
Flooding is the New Normal in Miami In Miami, sea-level rise is not a problem for future generations. It’s a present-day reality.
Quote
Navarrete’s garage now floods about once every other month. She often has to wear rainboots just to get to her car.

Navarrete: “And sometimes the water would be higher than that. So I couldn’t wear my boots because otherwise I would get the water inside the boots. So then we have to go barefoot, which is disgusting.”

And when the moon, earth, and sun align, tides are even higher than usual. They’re called king tides, and last for about a week. During king tides, Navarrete’s garage floods twice a day.
http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/02/flooding-is-the-new-normal-in-miami/ (http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/02/flooding-is-the-new-normal-in-miami/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: DrTskoul on February 08, 2017, 01:16:25 AM
Not only Miami

High Water (https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/high-water/)

Moon Over Miami Boston (https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/11/04/moon-over-miami-boston/)

Supermoon Flooding (https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/11/16/supermoon-flooding/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: nyx on February 08, 2017, 08:24:26 AM
New XKCD: 4.5 Degrees

http://m.xkcd.com/1379/ (http://m.xkcd.com/1379/)

"200 meter sea level rise" seems overly pessimistic for the Cretaceous hothouse scenario. I was under the impression that even if all of the world's ice melted the sea would rise by only 80 metres? (Okay, 80 meters is a lot, but it's not the same as 200 meters).
Also, I highly doubt that palm trees would grow at the South Pole in the event of the global temperature rising by 8 Celsius.

Unless that "Cretaceous hothouse" label is referring to what actually happened in the Cretaceous rather than what is likely to happen if the same temperature rise happened in the future. In which case it's not especially relevant to a discussion about the likely effects of global warming.

Having said all that, the general message of this comic - that global warming could have some pretty bad impacts - is true.

And you can't expect a small comic like that to go into detail about everything that affects global climate...! :)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on February 08, 2017, 09:49:57 PM
Welcome, nyx. Your profile is released now.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wehappyfew on February 08, 2017, 10:16:10 PM
Sea Level in the Cretaceous:

Temperature and ice volume are not the only factors controlling sea level.

During the Cretaceous, more vigorous subduction and creation of ocean crust is thought to have raised the average level of the seafloor. Younger seafloor is warmer, less dense, and so floats higher on the mantle.

Therefore the volume of the ocean basins was physically smaller, forcing water up onto the continents.

It's true that climate change - man-made or otherwise - will not duplicate the Cretaceous high sea levels... the level of plate tectonic activity is different now and unlikely to change rapidly.

...

Palm trees at the poles:

Polar amplification and different atmospheric circulation patterns kept the poles much warmer relative to the tropics. "Equable Climate" is the search term to look into.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: solartim27 on February 09, 2017, 06:08:09 PM
This doesn't have much to do with ice, but there have been rumblings in past messages that a pole reversal could result in more tectonic activity and glacier collapse.  I remember seeing a Nova episode showing how radiation will be a big problem until the field stabilizes.
http://earthsky.org/earth/magnetic-pole-reversal-ahead (http://earthsky.org/earth/magnetic-pole-reversal-ahead)

Seeing this article right after the above I relized the effects they are studying took place at the same time as the last pole flip.  They need to talk to each other.
http://www.sciencealert.com/tree-rings-suggest-an-unexpected-magnetic-solar-event-happened-7-000-years-ago (http://www.sciencealert.com/tree-rings-suggest-an-unexpected-magnetic-solar-event-happened-7-000-years-ago)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: folke_kelm on February 10, 2017, 04:13:48 PM
Solartim27
Offtopic reply. Please read the article you link to carefully. There has not been a pole shift 7000 years ago. Your link 1 states this clearly and refers to a local effect in south Africa 7000 years ago, but not a global pole shift which occurs every 140000 to 450000 years, sometimes longer like just now. the last pole shift has been nearly 800000 years ago.
There is no geological evidence at all that a pole shift is linked to enhanced seismic or volcanic activity nor is there any evidence for a link between solar activity and reversal of the magnetic field of the earth.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 10, 2017, 06:01:24 PM
This doesn't have much to do with ice, but there have been rumblings in past messages that a pole reversal could result in more tectonic activity and glacier collapse.  I remember seeing a Nova episode showing how radiation will be a big problem until the field stabilizes.
http://earthsky.org/earth/magnetic-pole-reversal-ahead (http://earthsky.org/earth/magnetic-pole-reversal-ahead)

Seeing this article right after the above I relized the effects they are studying took place at the same time as the last pole flip.  They need to talk to each other.
http://www.sciencealert.com/tree-rings-suggest-an-unexpected-magnetic-solar-event-happened-7-000-years-ago (http://www.sciencealert.com/tree-rings-suggest-an-unexpected-magnetic-solar-event-happened-7-000-years-ago)

O/T but a while back i did ponder the whole magnetic reversal thing as we appear to go through periods where reversals ,according to ur stripey sea floors, missed out on a reversal ( or more) The stripes are in the erupted magma from ocean spreading centres and it occurred to me if the 'reversal' did not stick then we would not see a stripe recording a reversed period. If the Earths own magnetic field weakens then maybe a strong shunt from a CMR would be enough to flip it over? Should the sun be active then a second hit, down the line, might right the field before a recognisable stripe could be laid down in the magma?

Far from being benign periods these long periods without reversals might be seeing multiple events take place but none for long enough to lay down a recognisable stripe?

With the Earths magnetic field apparently weakening maybe we would be prey to rogue 'Grand solar Minimum' super CME's might be enough to flip it ?

Obviously any Grand Solar Minimum super flares could just induce currents here on the surface frying our transformers whilst cooking the Sat's above.........
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 01, 2017, 08:37:25 PM
The most climate change action I've seen documented in South Florida to date.

South Florida continues prep for sea level rise
Quote
South Florida is taking more steps to protect against climate change and the rising seas that already are spilling over into neighborhoods.

This month, Broward County ordered that new flood maps be drawn using predictions of higher waters, the latest in a series of steps taken from Palm Beach County to the Keys.

Fort Lauderdale raised the required height of sea walls and the elevation of home sites; Delray Beach added valves to keep salt water out of the city drainage system; Broward County put a financing program in place for homeowners who want to tap solar energy.

That doesn’t mean Florida is all ready and set for the ill effects of rising global temperatures. A nationally recognized advocacy group that rated states on preparedness gave Florida a C- ....
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/broward-politics-blog/fl-reg-climate-change-sofla-20170221-story.html (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/broward-politics-blog/fl-reg-climate-change-sofla-20170221-story.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on March 01, 2017, 10:55:01 PM
The most climate change action I've seen documented in South Florida to date.

South Florida continues prep for sea level rise
Quote
South Florida is taking more steps to protect against climate change and the rising seas that already are spilling over into neighborhoods.

This month, Broward County ordered that new flood maps be drawn using predictions of higher waters, the latest in a series of steps taken from Palm Beach County to the Keys.

Fort Lauderdale raised the required height of sea walls and the elevation of home sites; Delray Beach added valves to keep salt water out of the city drainage system; Broward County put a financing program in place for homeowners who want to tap solar energy.

That doesn’t mean Florida is all ready and set for the ill effects of rising global temperatures. A nationally recognized advocacy group that rated states on preparedness gave Florida a C- ....
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/broward-politics-blog/fl-reg-climate-change-sofla-20170221-story.html (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/broward-politics-blog/fl-reg-climate-change-sofla-20170221-story.html)
This is a joke. Within five years I expect real estate prices in South Florida to have fallen 50%+ compared to current levels.

There is simply nothing that can be done to save Miami et al & any additional capital currently being sunk into the region for "defense" adds to the waste; I do not think economics will allow this to continue much longer as the sheer scale of what is already unfolding begins becoming more obvious to the general population.

Adjusting "official" forecasts for sea level rise says nothing when the benchmarks for what they measure it against seem to keep changing. Projections for 31" of SLR "on the low end" by 2100 seem to ignore the fact that we are already seeing waters 26-27" above 1988-NAVD during fall King Tide events completely independent of significant tropical influence.

Even if you mandate new construction be 1' higher compared to old that only buys another ~10 yrs given current rates of practical sea level rise. And that does nothing for the existing stock, much of which is rapidly going to crumble into nothingness as its value begins depreciating when flooding becomes an annual occurrence.

I believe South Florida's impending collapse will make what has happened to Detroit look lovely in comparison.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 02, 2017, 01:26:02 AM
...
This is a joke. Within five years I expect real estate prices in South Florida to have fallen 50%+ compared to current levels.
...
I agree these reported efforts are minuscule compared with the impending problems, but not all neighborhoods are affected by king tides directly yet (as an example), so I expect a great deal of South Florida real estate will continue to be economically viable  for a decade or two, maybe three.  (No, I'll not invest, but business is business for those who practice squeezing nickles [U.S. 5 cent coins] out of whole cloth - is that a mixed enough metaphor in this Trumpian age?)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on March 02, 2017, 01:48:14 AM
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/01/famine-warning-issued-in-four-countries-following-worst-african-droughts-in-decades/#comments

Famine Warning Issued in Four Countries Following Worst African Droughts in Decades

Quote
Abnormally warm West Pacific sea surface temperatures — in part driven by a weak La Nina, in part driven by global warming — produced changes in atmospheric circulation that considerably reduced rainfall over Eastern and Southern Africa during 2016. As a result, places like Rwanda, Kenya, Eithiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia experienced some of their worst droughts in decades.


According to the Famine Early Warning Network,  more than 70 million people are facing hunger around the world in 2017. The primary causes include drought, military conflict, and lack of ability of nations to access food on the international market. Four countries — Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and Nigeria — now face famine. And drought and conflict stricken Africa is the primary hot-spot for global hunger. Climate change has likely worsened this situation by adding to the intensity of droughts and heatwaves now affecting the region...

Additionally, conflict combined with the after effect of a 2014-2015 drought has disrupted food and water access in Yemen. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s falling purchasing power following a 2015 drought has rendered it unable to reliably procure food locally or on the international market.

These synergistic factors have forced plummeting food production and food security throughout Africa and nearby Middle Eastern countries. And now four nations — Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen and Nigeria — have been placed under a famine alert. In these countries alone, 20 million people face starvation and the world-over more than 70 million people are under threat from hunger.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on March 02, 2017, 01:54:40 AM
...
This is a joke. Within five years I expect real estate prices in South Florida to have fallen 50%+ compared to current levels.
...
I agree these reported efforts are minuscule compared with the impending problems, but not all neighborhoods are affected by king tides directly yet (as an example), so I expect a great deal of South Florida real estate will continue to be economically viable  for a decade or two, maybe three.  (No, I'll not invest, but business is business for those who practice squeezing nickles [U.S. 5 cent coins] out of whole cloth - is that a mixed enough metaphor in this Trumpian age?)
I believe between 5-10% of SoFL is currently being impacted. Adding another foot of inundation on top of today's levels puts that to ~20%, and is likely on a regular basis (IMO) within 10 years.

While that is the amount of housing stock that will be flooding regularly in 10 years, that understates the impact to underlying infrastructure. What about roads, sewers, underground utilities in general? These become much more vulnerable and will be impacted in places where homes aren't yet being flooded.

With some neighborhoods already going under, these problems of wear & tear on maintenance that demand increasingly prohibitive investments simply for continued use equate to imminent financial failure. Once these "investments" in pumps/etc show to be useless there will be a rapid realization that nothing can be done and demand for SoFL real estate will evaporate within the span of a few years.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 02, 2017, 06:58:57 PM
bbr2314,
We may be talking past each other a bit. 

Salt water intrusion is impacting many places, even 6 miles inland (http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/11/new-video-focuses-on-south-florida-sea-level-rise-saltwater-intrusion/).  House-flooding king tides: not so many.  (A 2016 news article (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/18/us/intensified-by-climate-change-king-tides-change-ways-of-life-in-florida.html?_r=0) included "By 2100, sea levels could swell high enough to submerge 12.5 percent of Florida’s homes." - I don't believe the "2100" or "submerge" in the article, but it suggests a few feet of SLR will directly affect 'only' 12.5% of homes.)

My guess is that these AGW issues will close down much of SE Florida in 20-30 years.  That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of pain and suffering (i.e., economic losses) along the way.  More superficial beach encroachment (and replenishment) issues will get more 'air time' this next decade, I fear.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: DrTskoul on March 10, 2017, 11:36:48 PM
Shrinking Sagar Island struggles to stay afloat as sea level rises – “We have made nature very angry” (http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/03/shrinking-sagar-island-struggles-to.html?m=1)

Quote
The water rushed in at night,” recalls Madan Mohan Pal of Hendalketki in Sagar Island. “By the morning, the entire village was under water. When the flood receded, the land was so saline that we could grow nothing for the next two years.” Although Pal has harvested a good paddy crop this January, memory of the sudden tidal surge remains fresh.

An unpredicted high tide broke the embankments of Muriganga River in the night of 12 July 2014, and swept through 14 villages spread over 30 sq. km. The damage was extensive in the eastern part of the island. It disrupted life for about 25,000 people. More than 4,000 houses were destroyed and some 500 hectares of cropland turned saline. The sea hasn’t really retreated from some of the villages since then.

Sagar Island is arguably an object lesson on how people are coping with a rising sea. Considered sacred by Hindus because it sits at the confluence of the Ganga and the Bay of Bengal, this large island of 160,000 people is buffeted by the worst effects of climate change — coastal erosion, rising sea levels, unpredictable tidal surges, land salinity and more violent cyclonic storms.

https://www.thethirdpole.net/2017/03/08/shrinking-sagar-island-struggles-to-stay-afloat/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2017, 01:33:04 PM
More on nuisance flooding in the U.S.:

"Nuisance" floods may cost U.S. cities as much as major hurricane disasters - scientists
Quote
Nuisance flooding is defined by the National Ocean Service as "flooding that leads to public inconveniences such as road closures", but rarely causes death or injury.

The floods can overwhelm storm drains, and slowly degenerate infrastructure and strain city resources.

Roads and sidewalks were not built to be under saltwater for hours on end, and cities usually have to close roads and send in trucks to clean them up, the scientists said.

"They definitely can't withstand this," said lead author Hamed Moftakhari, also of UCI. And the damage leads to "long, drawn-out costs", he added.

In Boston specifically, "king tides" overwhelm walkways and roads several times a year. The east coast city is predicted to see up to 100 hours of such nuisance flooding a year by 2030, the UCI scientists said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-floods-climatechange-idUSKBN16E24M (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-floods-climatechange-idUSKBN16E24M)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on March 13, 2017, 05:55:33 PM
Really Good article from bloomberg news on Alaska:-

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/alaska-s-big-problem-with-warmer-winters (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/alaska-s-big-problem-with-warmer-winters)

Not good news for the humans in Alaska, but perhaps it is for non-human life forms.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2017, 10:46:54 AM
Robertscribbler.com new article bringing together several causes and consequences. Well worth a read.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Ranman99 on March 14, 2017, 10:54:43 AM
I read Tom Clancy does not climate change present a "Clear and Present Danger"? Would those lying about it and covering up the truth not be liable to prosecution? Just curious. I'm not American.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: magnamentis on March 14, 2017, 07:09:27 PM
I read Tom Clancy does not climate change present a "Clear and Present Danger"? Would those lying about it and covering up the truth not be liable to prosecution? Just curious. I'm not American.

while i dunno the U.S. Law, you're touching a (pointing at a) very important and great systemic flaw that is the "collective irresponsibility" of the political class, of course made possible by themselves through all kinds of "immunities" and blocking of sharp toothed law that would change that.

in one of my books that is currently in the making more responsibility plays a major role. because it's a long story it just try to describe it shortly:

politicians, all their promises and speaches should be recorded, brought to paper and they only should enter office after having signed that paper and there should be specific sentences for breaking that "contract" with the public.

penalties should range from monetary penalties up to death sentence for being responsible for the death of people by breaking the contract they signed while they always would have the option to alter contract with public assent by means of referendum. for example, one guy runs for president by promising that he will not send troups aproad (start a war) if for any reason he things he has to change that he would hold a referendum to get
peoples assent. if he does without he goes to jail and if soldiers were killed to the gallow. it's not that easy but as i said, it's too long of a story for this platform and polititians will never inflict such a thing on themselves, hence it will ultimately take some kind of revolution to implement more responsibility and enforcement through punishments that really hurts.

EDIT: just imagine what happens to impeached or ousted politicians and managers:

"Und wenn sie nicht gestorben sind dann leben sie heute noch in luxus und anerkennung"

(and they have not passed away yet they are continuously living in luxury and public recognition)

this would be the typical end of fairy tails which is exactly what it is, a fairy tail for them, a nightmare for the average people and a big big "JOKE"

In fact i have nothing agains people having a "very" good live, but as @Neven wrote elsewhere in this forum, there should be an upper limit, which, of course can be high enough to make it worthwhile to do a great job, make a great carrier, pay for extra work and efforts and so on, but it does not have to be enough to make dozens of next generations rich, spoiled brats and arrogant a'holes just because grand grand grand dad had successfully stolen from the aborigines, other natives or from planet earth.

just take the example of arms dealers, when i was young they were in every newspaper and magazine, mentioned and covered as respectable (honorable) people, just because they had lots of money. after that they got more or less outlawed and criminalized (rightly so) and who took over their entire business after that?????

RIGHT, OUR DEAR GOVERNMENTS, HIDING BEHIND THE INTEREST OF THE COUNTRY (MILITARY INDUSTRIAL AND FINANCIAL COMPLEX) Don't trust any politician who does not stop arms sales which is more or less ZERO of all those who currently have a say.


Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Hefaistos on March 17, 2017, 09:09:10 AM
African hotbed just getting worse:
"The Nile River Delta, once known as the bread basket of the world, may soon be unable to support even the population of Egypt. According to a multi-year study published in the Geological Society of America this week, the area where the Nile river drains out to the sea is suffering from decreased water flow, rising sea levels, and salt water intrusion—all of which damage food production and fresh water supplies.

“With a population expected to double in the next 50 years, Egypt is projected to have critical countrywide fresh water and food shortages by 2025,” the researchers from the University of Colorado wrote in a summary of the study."

https://qz.com/934106/egypts-nile-river-delta-once-the-bread-basket-of-the-world-may-soon-be-uninhabitable/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 08, 2017, 06:35:25 PM
More on the Nile, including new political considerations.

The Vanishing Nile: A Great River Faces a Multitude of Threats
The Nile River is under assault on two fronts – a massive dam under construction upstream in Ethiopia and rising sea levels leading to saltwater intrusion downstream. These dual threats now jeopardize the future of a river that is the lifeblood for millions.
http://e360.yale.edu/features/vanishing-nile-a-great-river-faces-a-multitude-of-threats-egypt-dam (http://e360.yale.edu/features/vanishing-nile-a-great-river-faces-a-multitude-of-threats-egypt-dam)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2017, 04:35:47 PM
An updated look at south Florida, from the BBC.

Miami’s fight against rising seas
Quote
...
It’s an ambitious agenda. And it’s one that’s working. Areas where roads have been raised and pumps installed have been much drier. But, as Gassman noted, it’s not enough to change one piece of infrastructure without changing everything else. In this case, what happens when you raise a road without raising all of the properties around it? Water can go into the properties.

That’s not supposed to happen when the pumps work. But they can fail. Antonio Gallo’s Sardinia Enoteca Ristorante is one of a number of businesses that have found their ground floors are now below the current road and sidewalk height. Last year, the pumps failed to kick in after a brief period of rain; the restaurant flooded, with diners stuck inside. When Gallo went to file his insurance claim, it was turned down. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), which runs a national flood insurance programme for at-risk business and property owners like Gallo, anything below street level is considered a basement. Until Fema changes their policy, that includes all of the businesses now below the raised streets. Miami Beach is working closely with Fema to get not only Gallo’s situation, but the general basement classification, re-assessed.
...
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170403-miamis-fight-against-sea-level-rise (http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170403-miamis-fight-against-sea-level-rise)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on April 18, 2017, 04:18:39 PM
No relief in sight as heat wave continues to build across northern India

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/no-relief-in-sight-as-heat-wave-continues-to-build-across-northern-india-this-week/70001408 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/no-relief-in-sight-as-heat-wave-continues-to-build-across-northern-india-this-week/70001408)

Extract:
Quote
Dangerous heat will continue to build across much of India this week, and there is no relief in sight.
The most intense heat will be found across northern India, stretching from West Bengal and Odisha to Rajasthan, the National Capital Region and Punjab.
Daily high temperatures will approach or exceed 43 C (110 F) in these areas with the warmest locations recording temperatures exceeding 46 C (115 F).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 18, 2017, 10:00:53 PM
U.S.:  Norfolk, Virginia.
“Adaptation is a range,” says Fred Brusso, a former city flood manager. “Do you need to just move your car? Do you have to put your washer and dryer on cinder blocks? Or do you need to get the heck out of town?”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/magazine/when-rising-seas-transform-risk-into-certainty.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/magazine/when-rising-seas-transform-risk-into-certainty.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: DrTskoul on April 20, 2017, 12:00:33 PM
Miami Florida:

H/Tip Andy_in_SD@Scribbler (https://robertscribbler.com/2017/04/19/renewable-energy-technology-is-now-powerful-enough-to-significantly-soften-the-climate-crisis/#comment-113159)

Quote
The Nightmare Scenario for Florida’s Coastal Homeowners

Demand and financing could collapse before the sea consumes a single house.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-19/the-nightmare-scenario-for-florida-s-coastal-homeowners (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-19/the-nightmare-scenario-for-florida-s-coastal-homeowners)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on April 20, 2017, 03:03:25 PM
I liked this quote:
Quote
He described South Florida’s real estate market as “pessimists selling to optimists,”
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on April 20, 2017, 07:53:37 PM
The most shocking quote from that article :

"Realtors in Florida face no legal requirement to warn potential buyers about those flood risks."

the real estate industry has learned nothing from 2008 meltdown.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on April 22, 2017, 12:44:12 PM
Robertscribbler.com has a new article on the drought in India. Already likely to have medium to long term effects on lives of several hundred million people.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: OrganicSu on April 22, 2017, 01:52:23 PM
I liked this quote:
Quote
He described South Florida’s real estate market as “pessimists selling to optimists,”
The quote kinda leeds me to the idea that 'the situation' is a matter of subjective perspective and thereby misleading to the subconscious feelings about ASLR.
Would the editor have been allowed to describe South Florida’s real estate market as “realists selling to optimists,”? Would have had a stronger effect on any perspective low elevation potential property purchasers (LEPPP'ers for short)....
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: jai mitchell on April 26, 2017, 06:56:56 AM
All eyes on Louisiana if this long-range forecast holds. . .  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/04/30/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-91.65,32.95,816/loc=-89.375,30.156

here is the 850 mb projection
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on April 26, 2017, 06:29:02 PM
Jai
The only question I have is to ask if Louisiana ever was "livable". ;D


Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 05, 2017, 03:08:58 AM
Dust storm chokes Beijing and northern China
Quote
...
"I've got used to smog, time to try something new. If I have to choose one to live in, between sandstorm and smog, I prefer the former," said another Weibo commenter.

China has seen particularly intense air pollution in recent years, especially in winter as many of its northern cities still largely rely on burning coal for heating.

But it is also increasingly affected by dust storms, as its cities expand towards nearby deserts which in turn have been spreading due to climate change.
...
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39801555 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39801555)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 07, 2017, 05:12:17 PM
New York City Creates Climate Change Roadmap for Builders: Plan for Rising Seas
The city’s new resilience guidelines map out the expected risks from sea level rise and increasing heat in the decades ahead.
Quote
The nation's largest city has a message for the architects and engineers planning the New York of tomorrow: Fortify new buildings against the ravages of climate change or risk rebuilding as global warming worsens.

New guidelines issued last week by the office of New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio are some of the most comprehensive for how builders should protect infrastructure against rising seas, more powerful storms and climbing temperatures. They draw on science published in 2015 by a city panel of experts that estimates rainfall, sea level rise and other climatic shifts expected for the city in the decades ahead. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02052017/nyc-publishes-building-design-guidelines-adapting-climate-change
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2017, 11:50:46 PM
While ocean-front property comes to mind when we think of the risks of climate change, let's not forget lakeshore and riverfront property, which are in danger due to extreme precipitation, storms, and flooding.

"Lots of Lake Ontario shoreline is breaking away and falling into the water.  A bad situation is worsening"
Brief video clip of houses endangered by eroding shoreline: https://twitter.com/john_kucko/status/861629741413040128
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 20, 2017, 06:16:18 PM
Many of the lessons learned and applied in this Japanese city hit by a tsunami can also be used for areas threatened by sea level rise or flooding.

In Japan Tsunami City, People Power Turns Disaster Into Opportunity
http://floodlist.com/asia/japan-tsunami-city-people-power-turns-disaster-opportunity (http://floodlist.com/asia/japan-tsunami-city-people-power-turns-disaster-opportunity)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 22, 2017, 03:16:20 PM
Quite literally, less livable.

At least 161 people have died due to heat stroke in Telangana

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/telangana-heatwave-hike-in-temperature-sunstroke-deaths/1/958608.html (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/telangana-heatwave-hike-in-temperature-sunstroke-deaths/1/958608.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2017, 02:08:20 AM
Landslide on California Highway 1 is part of $1 billion in damage
Quote
BIG SUR, Calif. (AP) — A massive landslide that went into the Pacific Ocean is the latest natural disaster to hit a California community that relies heavily on an iconic coastal highway and tourism to survive, and it adds to a record $1 billion in highway damage from one of the state's wettest winters in decades.

The weekend slide in Big Sur buried a portion of Highway 1 under a 40-foot layer of rock and dirt and changed the coastline below to include what now looks like a rounded skirt hem, Susana Cruz, a spokeswoman with the California Department of Transportation, said Tuesday.

More than 1 million tons of rock and dirt tumbled down a saturated slope in an area called Mud Creek. The slide is covering up about a one-quarter-of-a-mile (0.40-kilometer) stretch of Highway 1, and authorities have no estimate on when it might re-open. The area remains unstable.
...
One of California's rainiest and snowiest winters on record has broken a five-year drought, but also caused flooding and landslides in much of the state and sped up coastal erosion.

"This type of thing may become more frequent, but Big Sur has its own unique geology," said Dan Carl, a district director for the California Coastal Commission whose area includes Big Sur. "A lot of Big Sur is moving; you just don't see it."

Even before the weekend slide, storms have caused just over $1 billion in highway damage to 424 sites over the fiscal year that ends in June, Mark Dinger, also a spokesman for the state transportation agency, said Tuesday. That compares with $660 million last year, he said.
...
http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/Massive-slide-covers-stretch-of-Highway-1-near-11165911.php (http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/Massive-slide-covers-stretch-of-Highway-1-near-11165911.php)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 28, 2017, 04:04:26 AM
“Fugate also said rating companies were wrong to assume that cities are well prepared for climate change, or that their revenue will necessarily recover after a natural disaster.”

Rising Seas May Wipe Out These Jersey Towns, but They're Still Rated AAA
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/investors-say-it-s-time-to-price-climate-into-cities-bond-risks (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/investors-say-it-s-time-to-price-climate-into-cities-bond-risks)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on May 28, 2017, 07:22:35 AM
I wonder that anyone trusts the rating companies after the big oops in 2008.

"Laskey, of Fitch, was skeptical that rating companies could or should account for climate risk in municipal ratings.

"We’re not emergency-preparedness experts," she said in a phone interview. "Unless we see reason to think, ‘Oh, they’re not paying attention,’ we assume that they’re competent, and they’re doing what they need to do in terms of preparedness."

The people who buy those bonds are so screwed. The banks are playing both sides of the game. "The Big Short" is an indispensable movie to understand how the banks set up deals to fail, and bet on them failing.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 30, 2017, 07:31:52 PM
"“The water sneaks up the backside of barrier islands and the flooding you get is sometimes actually greater than on the ocean sides due to the topography of the islands. That is the case all the way up and down the East Coast to Miami Beach.”

Overlooked and insidious: Back-bay flooding plagues millions
https://apnews.com/604031c25bb94e68b4d50823cf4df4ab/Insidious-but-overlooked:-Back-bay-flooding-plagues-millions
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Jim Pettit on May 31, 2017, 02:18:22 PM
The third and final season of the Netflix series Bloodline, a crime/family drama set in (and filmed in) the Florida Keys, was just released, and it was interesting to see that rising sea levels play a small but pivotal part in the finale. And, happily, not at all in a completely-over-the-top, hyperbolic, Day After Tomorrow way, with meteotsunamis and grinding ice sheets rapidly taking over the land while CGI wooly mammoths and sabre-toothed tigers wander the newly-formed glaciers of Manhattan, but in a more matter of fact, Florida-is-absolutely-screwed kind of way. Bottom line (and here the requisite SPOILER ALERT): an important real estate transaction is invalidated after it's found that the property in question--the show's, and family's, oceanside geographic anchor in Islamorada--is rendered unsaleable because rising seas will make it unlivable in just the next decade or two.

IMHO, that's a very realistic way of looking at things.

Rising seas will reclaim Florida. That's a given. And that means the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars in property and infrastructure, and the displacement of tens if not hundreds of thousands of Floridians. In Bloodline, the fictional family's entire fortune has been put into their beautiful resort, just as real-life families generally find their home to be by far their most valuable real asset. So when those seas creep up and in over the coming years, there'll be no buyers for those homes. Ditto the empty factories, the unreachable distribution centers, the dead farms, the mushy golf courses, the soggy hotels, the washed-out theme parks, the unrentable retail outlets. And so on. Many will simply be abandoned to the waves. And if your home is indeed your greatest asset, what do you do when you can neither sell it nor keep living in it? Where does a family with no money go? What are they to do? Where will they work when the workplaces are gone? Who will they serve when there's no one left to serve?



Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 31, 2017, 03:12:15 PM
Driving through 'small town America' - especially the towns and villages bypassed by the interstate highway system (including in Florida) - provides me with an image of the future.  Walking through the lettered avenues (A, B, C) in Manhattan [New York City] (years ago - redevelopment may have occurred) and driving though former industrial cities also provides images of the future abandonment of coastal parts of the world.  And there are images from scuba divers (etc.) of flooded valleys (for hydro dams or 'earthquake lakes') with buildings left in tact.

Think of all the opportunity for future development. Nothing reeks of 'progress' better than new construction! [/sarcasm] (Yes, such new construction will often be 'less livable' if designed by many-a-modern technocrat.)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on May 31, 2017, 05:22:35 PM
The 1st time I saw the bottom drop out was in Southern California in the mid 60's. LBJ suddenly decided that Aerospace should move to Houston. Tens of thousands lost their jobs directly, perhaps a million or more lost employment in bowling alleys, construction, retail, local government, and real estate.
Most in critical positions moved to Texas. A well educated work force wasn't something Texas could immediately offer, so Aerospace jobs in Texas were available to everyone whose work wasn't guarding the perimeter, or sweeping the floor. But families where both parents worked was already the norm by the mid 60's in California, and wrenching decisions had to be made. Should the family follow dad and his reduced income aerospace job while mom quit her lucrative teaching position? Young Bud suddenly wasn't selling any of his custom surfboards & his older sis certainly wasn't getting many calls for interior decorating.


Whole subdivisions were boarded up and taken off the market for years. If you didn't have a lot of equity in the house you walked away. If it was almost paid for it might be years before a buyer was found, and then at a fraction of it's former value. White only neighborhoods became passe and housing became affordable to many who maintained steady employment. In Riverside the whole of downtown closed up and a generation past before it's rebirth.


This wasn't today's Detroit, but it was scary to a Canadian kid who was new to the country and had never seen poverty. I never felt that California was quite the same afterward. Too many bright people moved away. Too many business's closed. Too many shattered & scattered families.
Governor Reagan was elected and anti-intellectualism reared it's emptied head. Hippies made love in public, surfers moved to the Texas hill country, and our generations drug culture clashed with their generation's alcoholics.


This didn't happen once a long time ago in California. It's just another cog in a wheel that will spin ever faster as vast regions become less and less livable. Droughts, floods, sea level rise, crop failure, and the election of actors that can mimic sincerity as they avow that it's someone else's fault.
Pictures from the era that come to mind include machine gun nests on the roof of the local bowling alley, a large valley where every house has plywood sheets covering all of the windows and doors, a poster of Ronald Reagan in a cowboy hat, balancing a box of Boraxo on his photo shopped bicep, with the caption reading "SINCERITY".


Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 02, 2017, 02:23:52 PM
A very impressive string of links to articles that clearly point to the eventual collapse of real estate values in areas that are at the front lines. Thank you, everyone.

The collapse of market values in these regions is closer than you think and will not be gradual but instantaneous, just as the collapse in the real estate crisis of 2007 through 2010 spread across the country. The impact on our financial system will be overwhelming and will require a government bailout of the financial system of a magnitude never before seen.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on June 04, 2017, 03:22:17 AM
Families scramble for relief as summer heat scorches Hanoi

http://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/families-scramble-for-relief-as-summer-heat-scorches-hanoi-3594425.html (http://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/families-scramble-for-relief-as-summer-heat-scorches-hanoi-3594425.html)

Quote
Many have fled to the countryside as the capital city is set to become a frying pan this weekend.

I don't know the source but it seems likely.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on June 13, 2017, 03:11:09 PM
Climate Change Has Made Heat Waves Much More Deadly, Mainly for the Poor

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608089/climate-change-has-made-heat-waves-much-more-deadly-mainly-for-the-poor/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608089/climate-change-has-made-heat-waves-much-more-deadly-mainly-for-the-poor/)

Quote
It is generally held that if we can avoid warming the planet by 2 oC above pre-industrial temperatures, we may be able to avoid the worst effects of climate change. In India, though, just a quarter of that warming has more than doubled the risk of deadly heat waves.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 16, 2017, 12:56:32 AM
Cross-post from the Weather thread:

The southwest U.S. is setting up for a record heatwave.

Eric Holthaus: 
- Since 1895, Tucson has recorded temperatures at 114°F or hotter only 8 times. That'll happen at least 3 more times in the next week....
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/875422306666815488

- Between 1951-1980 & 1981-2010, the average number of days at or above 100°F in Tucson increased by 55%. An already hot place getting hotter.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/875424277545099265

- After decades of warming, this will literally be the longest, most intense heat wave in Tucson history. I'm a meteorologist. This is my job.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/875448014516625408
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: MrVisible on June 16, 2017, 07:00:58 AM
There's a weird mix of excitement and dread that comes with having your hometown show up in the "Places becoming less livable" thread.

This should be interesting.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 18, 2017, 07:27:18 PM
Not Your Mother’s Jersey Shore
Five years after Hurricane Sandy destroyed communities along the shore, some towns have used the rebuilding process as a time to reinvent themselves.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/realestate/hurricane-sandy-rebuilding-jersey-shore-towns.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/realestate/hurricane-sandy-rebuilding-jersey-shore-towns.html)

The comments on the article are remarkably consistent.
This is probably the last generation who will build their homes at the New Jersey shore.  The risk is significant that by the end of a 30-year mortgage, the house will no longer be there.  And federal and state money will increasingly be needed elsewhere.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on June 20, 2017, 04:04:31 PM
Phoenix flights cancelled because it's too hot for planes

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40339730 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40339730)

Quote
As temperatures climb in Phoenix, Arizona, more than 40 flights have been cancelled - because it is too hot for the planes to fly.


It seems to me that we'll soon need a "Heatwaves and its Consequences" thread.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 20, 2017, 05:42:28 PM
THE SCIENCE BEHIND ARIZONA'S RECORD-SETTING HEAT WAVE
Planes are grounded, tap water comes out hot, and we’d all better get used to it.
Quote
In the Arizona desert, as far back as weather records go, it's never been this hot for this long.

By early Monday afternoon, the temperature was 111 degrees in Tucson, the first in a forecasted series of a record-setting seven consecutive days with highs above 110, the longest streak in city history. (The previous record, should it fall, was six days in a row in 1994.)

In Phoenix, just to the north, temperatures were even hotter. Meteorologists there are expecting temperatures to run as high as 120 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday, at the apex of the heat wave. The National Weather Service is calling the heat wave "extreme even by desert standards."

What's an extreme heat wave like in a place that's accustomed to extreme heat? Here's a snapshot of Monday:

• A Phoenix television station broadcast a live webcam of a 600-pound block of ice.
• In Sacramento, California, a team of meteorologists successfully baked cookies and fried bacon inside a car, with temperatures inside the car reaching nearly 200 degrees.
• The United States Border Patrol stepped up safety messages, saying "it is physically impossible for the average person to carry enough water to survive."
• The National Weather Service also warned against walking pets outdoors, saying that at pavement temperatures above 162 degrees (consistent with air temperatures of 102), skin is instantly destroyed.
...
The atmospheric culprit for the heat is a very intense high pressure, which is itself setting records. Though the statistical databases show this high of high pressure to be an approximately one-in-200-year event, these events have been occurring more often lately—with the last one happening just last year. In short, the background signal of global warming makes the entire atmosphere thinner and less dense, supporting stronger high-pressure centers like the one camped out over Arizona this week, which then tend to get stuck in place—cranking up the thermostat over a multi-state region.
...
https://psmag.com/environment/terrifying-heat-waves-in-arizona
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on June 20, 2017, 06:22:05 PM
This is just at about 1C with an arctic ice cap. How will it look like when we are at 2C and no ice to draw heat north?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on June 20, 2017, 06:52:08 PM
This is just at about 1C with an arctic ice cap. How will it look like when we are at 2C and no ice to draw heat north?
I'm afraid we will find out in a decade or two.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: RikW on June 21, 2017, 10:42:56 AM
I somehow like to think "It's your own fault, since you voted Trump", but I guess that's not really fair ;)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on June 21, 2017, 05:29:17 PM
More like 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial, and looks like we are not getting a La Nina to help out. With the warm phase of the PDO, looks like we are set for continued rapid temperature increases.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 22, 2017, 02:07:52 AM
"Before last year, Tucson had reached 115°F only four times in history. Today's the third time in three days."
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/tus.php (http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/tus.php)

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/877672465610166272 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/877672465610166272)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on June 22, 2017, 05:44:09 AM
Jojo left his home in Tucson, Arizona.  ;)  ??? :(
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 22, 2017, 03:04:46 PM
Eric Holthaus:  In Tucson, the wildlife are feeling the heat, too.
Here's how to help:
http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-hottest-in-tucson-history-edition-thursday-june-22nd (http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-hottest-in-tucson-history-edition-thursday-june-22nd)

Quote
Walking outside today felt like another planet. My wife rescued a pigeon that she said seemed very out of it and had stumbled onto our front porch. She set out a bit of food and water and it was gone a few hours later. Some other animals here haven't been as lucky. A friend said he personally knew of several people whose backyard chickens had died overnight. The local wildlife rehab center has seen four times the number of distressed animals as usual this week.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/877768979514773504
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2017, 07:58:09 PM
U.K. heat wave.  Desperate times call for desperate measures. :o

British schoolboys don skirts to protest shorts ban in heat wave
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/22/europe/british-schoolboys-skirt-protest-heatwave/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/22/europe/british-schoolboys-skirt-protest-heatwave/index.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2017, 10:52:33 PM
Extreme Heat Waves Will Change How We Live. We’re Not Ready
Quote
Heat waves are nothing new, but they have increased in frequency and severity in recent decades as a result of climate change. And each extreme heat event reveals another way our society simply isn't built for such high temperatures, from our transport systems to the agriculture industry.

"We’ve built entire infrastructures with particular temperatures in mind," says Matthew T. Huber, an associate professor of geography at Syracuse University. "When temperatures get really high, we don’t have the material capacity to deal with that."...
http://time.com/4830147/extreme-heat-climate-change/ (http://time.com/4830147/extreme-heat-climate-change/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2017, 11:00:22 PM
It's So Hot In Arizona Right Now That Everything Is Literally Melting.  (Or baking.)
https://www.buzzfeed.com/terripous/its-too-darn-hot (https://www.buzzfeed.com/terripous/its-too-darn-hot)

"It's so hot that plastic mailboxes are melting, making them double over."
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on June 24, 2017, 03:38:03 AM
Amazing.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on June 27, 2017, 12:55:24 AM
As Lake Chad vanishes, seven million people are on the brink of starvation.

https://newrepublic.com/article/143019/one-meal-day-lake-chad-vanishes-seven-million-people-starvation

Quote
Not so long ago, Lake Chad was one of the largest bodies of water in Africa. The thick reeds and vital wetlands around its basin provided vast freshwater reserves, breeding grounds for fish, fertile soil for agriculture, and grasslands where farmers grazed their animals. In 1963, it spanned almost 10,000 square miles, an expanse roughly the size of Maryland. But as climate change has taken its toll, the lake has shrunk by 90 percent. Today, only 965 square miles remain. Wetlands have given way to sand dunes. Farmers have abandoned their fields. Those who still live by the lake struggle to survive, beset by chronic drought and the slow onset of ecological catastrophe.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on June 27, 2017, 01:47:53 AM
It's So Hot In Arizona Right Now That Everything Is Literally Melting.  (Or baking.)
https://www.buzzfeed.com/terripous/its-too-darn-hot (https://www.buzzfeed.com/terripous/its-too-darn-hot)

"It's so hot that plastic mailboxes are melting, making them double over."

Looks like a Dali piece (who by the way is being exhumed for a paternity test on his DNA).

Here in Seattle it was 96f yesterday, tying the hottest June temp on record.  About 70-80% of dwellings lack AC.  Humidity tends to be reasonable and it does usually cool down nicely after dark, but the nights are very short here in the summer, especially around the solstice.

Noticing that more new construction have added AC, but the average home price in Seattle is now $720,000, so it's not just climate change making this place less livable.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on June 29, 2017, 08:20:19 AM
Something you don't see too often:  one of the mainline MSM sources with coverage of a heatwave and parallel impacts on water viability in Pakistan.  It's a rather grim and disconcerting article.  Very easy to see how this type of scenario leads to a war over water with neighboring India, all the more troubling since both are nuclear powers. 

In Pakistan, scorching Ramadan month highlights chronic water, power shortages

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-pakistan-scorching-ramadan-month-highlights-chronic-water-power-shortages/2017/06/27/074a20a4-576d-11e7-840b-512026319da7_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_pakistanheat-10pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.966ceb46c99f (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-pakistan-scorching-ramadan-month-highlights-chronic-water-power-shortages/2017/06/27/074a20a4-576d-11e7-840b-512026319da7_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_pakistanheat-10pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.966ceb46c99f)

The Ramadan ordeal has brought into sharp relief the chronic water and power shortages plaguing this arid, Muslim-majority country of 180 million. In cities, families had to fill jugs and bottles from public taps at 3 a.m. In villages, long daily electrical outages stopped fans from whirring and tube wells from pumping water to irrigate parched fields.

As the month dragged on, people lost patience. Violent protests broke out from the vast port city of Karachi to the hilly tribal region of Malakand. Electric-company offices were looted, ­police stations attacked, roads blocked. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ordered the electricity cuts shortened to several hours a day, but everyone knew that the move was only a temporary appeasement.
---
Pakistan’s water problem runs much deeper and has far more potential to devastate the country. Unlike power, water is a finite resource, highly vulnerable to global warming. Pakistan’s access to it depends partly on rivers from India, a hostile neighbor, and regionally on Himalayan glaciers that are beginning to melt. By mid-century, experts predict, the country could run out of water entirely.

Many Pakistanis blame India for using dams to divert river water that, under a treaty signed in the 1960s, should be flowing into Pakistan. India has fought three wars with Pakistan, and people are concerned that the water dispute will intensify under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an ardent Hindu nationalist.
---
We have had times when India wanted to go to war with us, but if they try to take our water, or if we run out of it, that will be worse than war,” he said. “If the water stops, there will be no crops, and people will die.”
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on June 30, 2017, 07:28:21 AM
Iranian city soars to 129 degrees, may have tied modern times’ world temperature record


The country’s southwestern city of Ahvaz topped the highest temperature ever recorded in Iran and may have matched the world record of 129.2.


from WaPo
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Forest Dweller on June 30, 2017, 04:33:28 PM
Weather alarm has been issued for Turkey, Greece, Macedonia & Bulgaria the coming days.
45 C expected or more in Turkey, Bulgaria expected to have anomalies of 20 C too warm.
Records breaking or tied seems possible, further east maybe as well.
Rajasthan, India i.e. will come close to 50 C.
Current Rajasthan record is 51 C.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on June 30, 2017, 10:38:43 PM
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: magnamentis on June 30, 2017, 11:00:23 PM
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.

the humidity part sounds interesting and a bit of time into the future since that regions is pure desert land and currently one of the dryer places on planet earth. is there any explanation why that region is expected to change from dry to humid climate or is it just one of many modeled theories?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on June 30, 2017, 11:16:06 PM
magnamentis, it may be that the humidity becomes high for a desert location. With these temperatures, doesn't take much humidity to make things unlivable. As it says below, there is moist air from the Persian Gulf to the south. Most of this area is close to the coast.

"The excessively hot air over Ahvaz, a city of 1.1 million people, felt even more stifling due to high humidity. As the temperature climbed into the high 120s, the dew point, a measure of humidity, peaked in the low 70s; a high level for the desert location (due to moist air flow from the Persian Gulf, to the south). The heat index — a measure of how hot it feels factoring in the humidity — exceeded 140 degrees. This combination of heat and humidity was so extreme that it was beyond levels the heat index was designed to compute.

In the Persian Gulf city of Jask, Iran, about 800 miles southeast of Ahvaz, the humidity was even more suffocating. The dew point on Wednesday morning hit 91.4 degrees. Dew points above 90 are quite rare. The highest dew point ever measured on Earth is 95 degrees (35 Celsius), set at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on July 8, 2003."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/29/iran-city-soars-to-record-of-129-degrees-near-hottest-ever-reliably-measured-on-earth/?utm_term=.48f6ac388c16 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/29/iran-city-soars-to-record-of-129-degrees-near-hottest-ever-reliably-measured-on-earth/?utm_term=.48f6ac388c16)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 04, 2017, 03:15:20 AM
This Map Shows How Badly Climate Change Will Impact Each County In The US
As temperatures go up, the US economy will suffer, according to a new study. And the warmer it gets, the worse the damages will be.
Quote
US counties face steep economic damages tied to future global warming, with the poorest counties to be hit hardest, according to a county-by-county analysis published on Thursday.

The warmer it gets, the worse that farms, businesses, and people will fare.

“As temperatures goes up, the economy gets damaged,” study author Amir Jina of the University of Chicago told BuzzFeed News, adding that “for each additional degree, there’s increasing damages done.”...
https://www.buzzfeed.com/zahrahirji/climate-change-hurts-local-economies-in-us-study-shows (https://www.buzzfeed.com/zahrahirji/climate-change-hurts-local-economies-in-us-study-shows)

 Interactive map at the above link.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on July 04, 2017, 06:52:47 AM
This Map Shows How Badly Climate Change Will Impact Each County In The US
As temperatures go up, the US economy will suffer, according to a new study. And the warmer it gets, the worse the damages will be.
Quote
US counties face steep economic damages tied to future global warming, with the poorest counties to be hit hardest, according to a county-by-county analysis published on Thursday.

The study seems to seriously underestimate the amount of damage as temperatures increase, a problem with many of these economics damage-type assessments. From the graph below, taken from the study - a 6 degree centigrade rise in temperature reduces US GDP by about 7%? 6 degrees is the end of civilization, and the economy as we know it.

The study includes climate scientists, strange that they would think that a 6 degrees global average temperature rise will create such a small impact? Even worse, from the paper "8°C warming is 6.4 to 15.7% GDP annually"

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full (http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full)

(https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2017-06/29/16/asset/buzzfeed-prod-fastlane-02/sub-buzz-29942-1498768091-4.jpg?downsize=715:*&output-format=auto&output-quality=auto)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 05, 2017, 02:44:33 PM
Yes. That sure seems to be a hopelessly inaccurate chart.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on July 05, 2017, 05:11:34 PM
Its based on an economic model, when was the last time an economist accurately predicted the GDP growth rate for a single country for the following few years accurately? Amazing how they keep failing, but also keep their positions of power over how we make judgements about the future.

Best to ignore them, and treat 2 degrees as the line in the sand. The approach that the UN IPCC is taking.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2017, 08:22:16 PM
Climate change threatens nomadic life in Morocco
Quote
The Max Planck Institute for Chemistry predicts that temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa will increase twice as fast as the global average. Even if the overall rise in temperatures can be held below the Paris climate accord’s target of 2 degrees Celsius, the entire region is likely to become uninhabitable, the institute said in a 2016 statement.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/07/04/morocco-nomadic-life-danger-climate-change/440637001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/07/04/morocco-nomadic-life-danger-climate-change/440637001/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on July 10, 2017, 02:08:51 PM
A sweeping and comprehensive piece in NY Magazine that covers much ground, ultimately with respect to the entire Earth becoming less liveable as the myriad effects of global temperature and CO2 levels increase.  A long essay that is worth the time.

This may not be the appropriate place for this article, so Neven please move if you see fit.

New York Magazine - July 10 - David Wallace Wells

The Uninhabitable Earth
Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html)

It is, I promise, worse than you think. If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. And yet the swelling seas — and the cities they will drown — have so dominated the picture of global warming, and so overwhelmed our capacity for climate panic, that they have occluded our perception of other threats, many much closer at hand. Rising oceans are bad, in fact very bad; but fleeing the coastline will not be enough.

Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century.
---
But no matter how well-informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough. Over the past decades, our culture has gone apocalyptic with zombie movies and Mad Max dystopias, perhaps the collective result of displaced climate anxiety, and yet when it comes to contemplating real-world warming dangers, we suffer from an incredible failure of imagination. The reasons for that are many: the timid language of scientific probabilities, which the climatologist James Hansen once called “scientific reticence” in a paper chastising scientists for editing their own observations so conscientiously that they failed to communicate how dire the threat really was; the fact that the country is dominated by a group of technocrats who believe any problem can be solved and an opposing culture that doesn’t even see warming as a problem worth addressing; the way that climate denialism has made scientists even more cautious in offering speculative warnings; the simple speed of change and, also, its slowness, such that we are only seeing effects now of warming from decades past; our uncertainty about uncertainty, which the climate writer Naomi Oreskes in particular has suggested stops us from preparing as though anything worse than a median outcome were even possible; the way we assume climate change will hit hardest elsewhere, not everywhere; the smallness (two degrees) and largeness (1.8 trillion tons) and abstractness (400 parts per million) of the numbers; the discomfort of considering a problem that is very difficult, if not impossible, to solve; the altogether incomprehensible scale of that problem, which amounts to the prospect of our own annihilation; simple fear. But aversion arising from fear is a form of denial, too.

In between scientific reticence and science fiction is science itself. This article is the result of dozens of interviews and exchanges with climatologists and researchers in related fields and reflects hundreds of scientific papers on the subject of climate change. What follows is not a series of predictions of what will happen — that will be determined in large part by the much-less-certain science of human response. Instead, it is a portrait of our best understanding of where the planet is heading absent aggressive action. It is unlikely that all of these warming scenarios will be fully realized, largely because the devastation along the way will shake our complacency. But those scenarios, and not the present climate, are the baseline. In fact, they are our schedule.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on July 10, 2017, 07:10:19 PM
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 11, 2017, 12:51:39 AM
The "wildlife-urban interface" may be becoming an even more dangerous place.

Why a Bear Attacked a Teen In His Sleep
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/ (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on July 11, 2017, 01:23:49 AM
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Dr Mann and others have responded with push back on the extent of he "doomsaying" and some misrepresentation of the science.  While these are of course valid call outs, changing the tone of the risk discussion to be more specific and perhaps frightening will be necessary if there is any hope for sufficient future action and preparation.  But if there is any bogus or exaggerated science, it should rightfully be criticized.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on July 11, 2017, 05:50:55 AM
The "wildlife-urban interface" may be becoming an even more dangerous place.

Why a Bear Attacked a Teen In His Sleep
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/ (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/)


Sleepwalking bears should always be given a wide berth, and awakened slowly and gently.  8)


Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 11, 2017, 02:08:54 PM
In order to survive the current social-political-environmental challenges in the knowledge of there being certain future challenges (CC, climate refugees, etc.), many are functionally sleepwalking.  Especially in places like Florida with "stand your ground" laws, these sleepwalking bears should definitely be given a wide berth.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on July 11, 2017, 06:37:22 PM
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Dr Mann and others have responded with push back on the extent of he "doomsaying" and some misrepresentation of the science.  While these are of course valid call outs, changing the tone of the risk discussion to be more specific and perhaps frightening will be necessary if there is any hope for sufficient future action and preparation.  But if there is any bogus or exaggerated science, it should rightfully be criticized.

I absolutely agree with Dr. Mann on the reporting of the UAH satellite data, which basically corrected some major errors that had made it an outlier versus other data sets. The changes simply aligned it properly with the other data sets, getting rid of a major denier crutch, it did not show that the actual warming was any greater. Absolutely shameful and sloppy journalism.

I am saddened at the tone of Dr. Manns response to the NYM article. What is reported is a possible outcome and he should have said that. Calling it "doomist framing", rather than one possible outcome, is a great over reaction.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Mozi on July 11, 2017, 11:29:01 PM
You could also call it 'putting two and two together.'
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 13, 2017, 02:58:49 PM
A new project in the area flooded by Hurrricane Katrina does not appear to benefit the remaining residents.

Army Corps Faces Mountain Of Mistrust In New Orleans' Ninth Ward
Quote
In New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward, a new infrastructure project has reopened old wounds.

For more than 50 years, the Army Corps of Engineers has tried to expand the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal. The shipping canal connects the Mississippi River to Lake Pontchartrain. Now, officials want to dig it up and build a new lock to let more tugboats and barges through.

But the people of Lower Ninth are not having it. The conflict is emblematic of a long history of mistrust.
...
http://www.npr.org/2017/07/11/536630382/army-corps-faces-mountain-of-mistrust-in-new-orleans-ninth-ward (http://www.npr.org/2017/07/11/536630382/army-corps-faces-mountain-of-mistrust-in-new-orleans-ninth-ward)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on July 16, 2017, 12:14:26 AM
‘The permafrost is dying’: Bethel sees increased shifting of roads and buildings

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2017/07/07/the-permafrost-is-dying-bethel-sees-increased-shifting-of-roads-and-buildings/ (https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2017/07/07/the-permafrost-is-dying-bethel-sees-increased-shifting-of-roads-and-buildings/)

Quote
Along the main thoroughfare here, drivers brake for warped asphalt. Houses sink unevenly into the ground. Walls crack and doors stick. Utility poles tilt, sometimes at alarming angles.

Permafrost in and around Bethel is deteriorating and shrinking, even more quickly than most places in Alaska.

Since the first buildings out here, people have struggled with the freeze and thaw of the soils above the permafrost. Now those challenges are amplified.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 20, 2017, 08:00:19 PM
Too Sunny in Philadelphia? Satellites Zero In on Dangerous Urban Heat Island
- Satellite and socioeconomic data can pinpoint which of a city’s neighborhoods are most at risk during heat waves
Quote
Cities around the world are getting hotter as the planet warms, and the consequences can be deadly. Researchers have linked heat waves like the one that hit Russia in 2010—killing 55,000 people—to climate change. And even without global warming, cities tend to bake when the weather gets warm. Surfaces such as asphalt roads and concrete buildings absorb and then radiate a lot of solar energy, which can leave urban areas 6 to 8 degrees Celsius warmer than rural regions.

Although some people can just crank up the air-conditioning amid increasingly brutal heat, many cannot. Urban decision makers need to know where to focus resources as they plan their adaptation strategies, potentially as a matter of life and death. But how can they pinpoint the most vulnerable populations? In a recent study researchers answered this question for Philadelphia by mapping the places where residents are most at risk....
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/too-sunny-in-philadelphia-satellites-zero-in-on-dangerous-urban-heat-islands/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/too-sunny-in-philadelphia-satellites-zero-in-on-dangerous-urban-heat-islands/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 29, 2017, 07:29:01 PM
U.S.:  Significant storm over the Mid-Atlantic coast, including New Jersey, this weekend.

"Ocean City [New Jersey] living up to its name. Many roads flooded and impassable (by car ;) )"
https://twitter.com/bfrayfray/status/891324810466390017

"Very heavy rainfall totals across parts of the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic region during the last 24-48 hours"
https://twitter.com/nwseastern/status/891328896058228736

"Mount Holly NWS Rainfall Reports"
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/891304390811844610

"BH EMERG MGMT: Beach Haven Lifeguards are advising the ocean is extremely dangerous today. Swimming is prohibited.  Stay out of the ocean."
https://twitter.com/tedgreenbergnbc/status/891292625675878400
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Csnavywx on July 30, 2017, 06:59:00 PM
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.

the humidity part sounds interesting and a bit of time into the future since that regions is pure desert land and currently one of the dryer places on planet earth. is there any explanation why that region is expected to change from dry to humid climate or is it just one of many modeled theories?

Just saw this post.

Despite being very dry precipitation-wise, the desert areas near the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea are the most humid on earth. The reason is evaporation. The extreme temperatures drive SSTs well into the 90s (mid 30s C) in the summer, resulting in a shallow layer of very humid air, especially once the early-summer Shamal wind dies out. Dewpoints regularly soar into the 80s. Mass subsidence from the Hadley Cell (resulting in a very strong subtropical high) prevents virtually all convection and thunderstorms and the moisture layer tends to be shallow enough to mix out any updrafts that do get going (except over the Hijaz-Azir mountains in Yemen).

source: I worked, lived and forecasted weather in this region for a few years and experienced it first hand. It isn't pleasant to experience heat indices in the 130s.

The highest wet bulb temp I experienced there was 31C. I was completely drenched in sweat just walking the few blocks into work in the morning and I was in shape at the time. I'm certain it isn't survivable for more than 6 hours without external cooling. Add 2C and you're talking heat exhaustion and heatstroke in an hour or two.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: magnamentis on July 30, 2017, 08:06:18 PM

Just saw this post.

Despite being very dry precipitation-wise, the desert areas near the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea are the most humid on earth. The reason is evaporation. The extreme temperatures drive SSTs well into the 90s (mid 30s C) in the summer, resulting in a shallow layer of very humid air, especially once the early-summer Shamal wind dies out. Dewpoints regularly soar into the 80s. Mass subsidence from the Hadley Cell (resulting in a very strong subtropical high) prevents virtually all convection and thunderstorms and the moisture layer tends to be shallow enough to mix out any updrafts that do get going (except over the Hijaz-Azir mountains in Yemen).

source: I worked, lived and forecasted weather in this region for a few years and experienced it first hand. It isn't pleasant to experience heat indices in the 130s.

The highest wet bulb temp I experienced there was 31C. I was completely drenched in sweat just walking the few blocks into work in the morning and I was in shape at the time. I'm certain it isn't survivable for more than 6 hours without external cooling. Add 2C and you're talking heat exhaustion and heatstroke in an hour or two.

thanks for the heads-up.

if i understand you correctly, despite the few precipitations in that regions in general, relative humidity (air-humidity) is more on the tropica (very humid) side?

or did you mean the highest humidity in desert regions on earth. i'm making sure beause on my various stays in the region, especially red sea, i never felt as uncomfortable due to humidity like for example in thailand, gambia or florida in summer, so i assume it's the latter.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Csnavywx on July 30, 2017, 09:39:56 PM

Just saw this post.

Despite being very dry precipitation-wise, the desert areas near the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea are the most humid on earth. The reason is evaporation. The extreme temperatures drive SSTs well into the 90s (mid 30s C) in the summer, resulting in a shallow layer of very humid air, especially once the early-summer Shamal wind dies out. Dewpoints regularly soar into the 80s. Mass subsidence from the Hadley Cell (resulting in a very strong subtropical high) prevents virtually all convection and thunderstorms and the moisture layer tends to be shallow enough to mix out any updrafts that do get going (except over the Hijaz-Azir mountains in Yemen).

source: I worked, lived and forecasted weather in this region for a few years and experienced it first hand. It isn't pleasant to experience heat indices in the 130s.

The highest wet bulb temp I experienced there was 31C. I was completely drenched in sweat just walking the few blocks into work in the morning and I was in shape at the time. I'm certain it isn't survivable for more than 6 hours without external cooling. Add 2C and you're talking heat exhaustion and heatstroke in an hour or two.

thanks for the heads-up.

if i understand you correctly, despite the few precipitations in that regions in general, relative humidity (air-humidity) is more on the tropica (very humid) side?

or did you mean the highest humidity in desert regions on earth. i'm making sure beause on my various stays in the region, especially red sea, i never felt as uncomfortable due to humidity like for example in thailand, gambia or florida in summer, so i assume it's the latter.

It's the highest air humidity region on the planet in absolute terms. As bad as it can get in Thailand, Florida, etc, you rarely see dewpoints above 80-82. It happens on a regular basis around the Persian Gulf and Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. Here's a recent ob (today) from Bahrain, for instance. This is already worse than the worst I experienced when I lived there 15 years ago. They're reaching it regularly now, apparently.

OBBI 301730Z 08006KT 7000 NSC 35/31 Q0999 NOSIG

That's 95/88 T/Td -- or a 32C Tw. Interesting that it's above the 31C limit listed in Sherwood's paper 7 years ago. If you use the NWS's chart for a heat index, it's off the chart (literally). Probably in the upper 130s. That place is already barely habitable. Give it 40-50 years and you'll start hitting that 35C Tw absolute habitability limit.

Considering the conditions of the habitability limit (gale force winds, wet surface, no clothing), a more sensible limit might be 33C, which would only be 15-20 years.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: magnamentis on July 31, 2017, 12:28:07 AM
thanks a lot, that's something really new i've learned thanks to you and that's a good thing, could save me one day to look like a fool ;)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on July 31, 2017, 03:50:33 AM
Quite a week coming up for the Pacific NW.  Record or near record highs expected mid-week in Portland and Seattle.  Roughly a quarter of residences have AC.  Such a beautiful area of the country, but fraught with climate and geologic risk:

> sea level rise
> heavily forested and exposed to wildfire danger when/if extreme drought sets in
> windstorm damage from Pacific cyclone remnants and strong lows
> circa 9.0 earthquake risk from Cascadia Subduction Zone, and mid 7s from Seattle Fault and others nearby
> ring of fire volcanos near high population areas
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: budmantis on July 31, 2017, 07:00:56 AM
The last place in the continental U.S. I would expect 100 degree temps is the pacific northwest!

BudM
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 31, 2017, 09:39:02 PM
Western Heat Wave May Near All-Time Record Highs in Oregon and Washington; Rare 100-Degree Heat Possible in Seattle
Quote
A blistering heat wave will sear the West Coast this week, threatening some all-time record highs in parts of Oregon and Washington, pushing Seattle toward a rare triple-digit high.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has already issued excessive heat warnings and heat advisories from parts of western Washington to the Sacramento Valley of California and western Nevada.

Current Heat Alerts
The NWS office in Portland, Oregon, warned this upcoming heat wave could be the city's strongest in eight years.
https://www.wunderground.com/news/record-heat-west-early-august-2017 (https://www.wunderground.com/news/record-heat-west-early-august-2017)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on August 01, 2017, 03:12:36 PM
It's also been very dry in parts of the PNW, after a record rainy in season some areas.  So you have all the lush growth from the copious moisture + extreme dryness + record heat = dangerous fire conditions.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2017, 04:02:12 AM
 :o  Massive flooding in Miami Beach.  The effects of hours of training thunderstorms from Tropical Depression Emily -- not a hurricane!

"This video from Miami Beach is pretty scary"
https://twitter.com/officialjoelf/status/892526423294038016
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2017, 04:27:45 AM
Tropical Depression Emily rain pounds South Florida and Beach pumps fail without power
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2017, 12:35:41 PM
Total gridlock at rush hour in Miami Beach yesterday.  "I'm just trying to get home."

"Miami Beach is basically shut down right now likely due to flooding from 5+" and approaching high tide. What a mess."
https://twitter.com/ttrogdon/status/892478096028434432



Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on August 02, 2017, 03:02:24 PM
Tropical Depression Emily rain pounds South Florida and Beach pumps fail without power
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html)

A good reminder that adaptation and counter measures are often half measures.  Relying on an electrical grid that can fail, emergency food supplies that can spoil, responders that can't respond, etc, will make a lot of planning look like that old cliche from von Moltke:  no battle plan survives contact with the enemy.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on August 02, 2017, 08:00:44 PM
Reminds me of the great economist assumption that is required to make their equations work "ceteris paribus" - everything else remains the same. Of course, with extreme events they never do remain the same. Like the power for the water pumps, or the liquidity during a market crash.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on August 02, 2017, 08:31:19 PM
Tropical Depression Emily rain pounds South Florida and Beach pumps fail without power
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html)

Tropical depressions can often drop more rainfall than hurricanes.  This is not that unusual for this area.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ghoti on August 02, 2017, 11:02:14 PM
Flooding of streets above the level of car doors is not unusual for this area? Maybe won't be unusual in the future but it is not yet common.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on August 03, 2017, 02:52:31 AM
Seattle temps were suppressed by the BC fire smoke that poured into the area.  85, well under the expected low 90 to mid 90s.  One climate change enhanced lever tweaking another climate change enhanced lever.

Portland hit 102 today.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: josh-j on August 04, 2017, 06:01:31 PM
Extreme heat warnings issued in Europe as temperatures pass 40C

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/extreme-heat-warnings-issued-europe-temperatures-pass-40c (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/extreme-heat-warnings-issued-europe-temperatures-pass-40c)

Quote
Eleven southern and central European countries have issued extreme heat warnings amid a brutal heatwave nicknamed Lucifer, with residents and tourists urged to take precautions and scientists warning worse could be still to come.

...

The highest temperature on Thursday was 42C in Cordoba, Spain, and Catania, Italy. Split in Croatia also hit 42.3C on Wednesday. The spell is forecast to peak at the weekend with temperatures of 46C or higher in Italy and parts of the Balkans.

...

Writing in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the scientists said if a similar “mega-heatwave” to that of 2003 were to occur at the end of the century, when average temperatures are widely expected to be noticeably higher after decades of global warming, temperatures could pass 50c.

Concerning note at the end stating there is forecasted to be a fall in agricultural production in Italy as a result of this heatwave.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on August 04, 2017, 07:48:02 PM
Flooding of streets above the level of car doors is not unusual for this area? Maybe won't be unusual in the future but it is not yet common.

Actually, this storm has produced less than rainfall and flooding than many others.  The rainfall totals from Emily ranged fron 4-6" across Dade county.  This pales in comparison to past storms.  Hurricane Cleo in 1964 dumped 9" of rain over the Miami Area.  Hurricane Andrew in 1992 dumped 14" on the area, causing massive destruction.  Miami Beach was completely cut off from greater Miami after the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (before they were given names).  Rainfall totals have not been recorded, but the storm surge was a record 17 feet.  The 1928 "Okeechobee Hurricane" was the second deadliest on record, due to rainfall that caused the aforementioned lake to overflow its banks and flood the surrounding areas. 

Yes, this is fairly common for a hurricane or tropical storm hitting this area.  However, even non-tropical storms can cause severe flooding.  The 1984 "Thanksgiving Storm" dumped 11" of rain on West Palm Beach, and combined with gale force winds, produced 5' tides and 20' swells.

 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2017, 03:28:54 PM
Because the Saudi Arabia location was not recording temperatures at night.

Death Valley Sets New Global Record for Hottest Single Month
Quote
Sustaining extreme heat for an entire month is a more impressive feat than doing so for just one day. This past July, Furnace Creek station at Death Valley, California, measured an average monthly temperature of 107.4°F—the hottest single month ever reliably measured anywhere on Earth.

Average monthly temperatures are typically calculated by adding the highs and lows for each day of the month, then dividing by 2 and dividing by the number of days in the month. A more precise method is to include every hour’s temperature reading and to divide accordingly. By using this technique, which is applied by the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), the Death Valley average for July 2017 was 107.24°F. (Note that conversions from degrees Fahrenheit to Celsius, and vice versa, may have a small effect on the results from Death Valley.)

Various media sources, including USA Today and the Washington Post, reported the Death Valley reading as being the second-hottest monthly average ever observed on the planet, behind the 107.44°F reported at the King Khaled Military City site in northern Saudi Arabia during August 2014. New evidence clearly shows the value from King Khaled to have been in error. Thus the Death Valley figure from this past July is, in fact, the warmest single month (average monthly temperature) reliably measured to date in the world.

The problem with observations from the King Khaled site
Brian Brettschneider (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks) discovered this week that during each day of August 2014—and, in fact for many other months and years around this time—the King Khaled Military City site was recording temperature data only once per hour, and only between the hours of 9 am and 9 pm local time. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-global-record-hottest-single-month-established-death-valley (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-global-record-hottest-single-month-established-death-valley)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on August 07, 2017, 01:53:06 PM
Because the Saudi Arabia location was not recording temperatures at night.

Death Valley Sets New Global Record for Hottest Single Month
Quote
Sustaining extreme heat for an entire month is a more impressive feat than doing so for just one day. This past July, Furnace Creek station at Death Valley, California, measured an average monthly temperature of 107.4°F—the hottest single month ever reliably measured anywhere on Earth.

Average monthly temperatures are typically calculated by adding the highs and lows for each day of the month, then dividing by 2 and dividing by the number of days in the month. A more precise method is to include every hour’s temperature reading and to divide accordingly. By using this technique, which is applied by the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), the Death Valley average for July 2017 was 107.24°F. (Note that conversions from degrees Fahrenheit to Celsius, and vice versa, may have a small effect on the results from Death Valley.)

Various media sources, including USA Today and the Washington Post, reported the Death Valley reading as being the second-hottest monthly average ever observed on the planet, behind the 107.44°F reported at the King Khaled Military City site in northern Saudi Arabia during August 2014. New evidence clearly shows the value from King Khaled to have been in error. Thus the Death Valley figure from this past July is, in fact, the warmest single month (average monthly temperature) reliably measured to date in the world.

The problem with observations from the King Khaled site
Brian Brettschneider (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks) discovered this week that during each day of August 2014—and, in fact for many other months and years around this time—the King Khaled Military City site was recording temperature data only once per hour, and only between the hours of 9 am and 9 pm local time. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-global-record-hottest-single-month-established-death-valley (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-global-record-hottest-single-month-established-death-valley)

Death Valley beat it own record (from 1917) by 0.2F.  This was largely due to increased nighttime temperatures, which were a whopping 7F above the average for the month.  Day time highs were a mere 2F above the average.  This is consistent with global warming trends across the globe.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on August 07, 2017, 03:27:45 PM
Flooding of streets above the level of car doors is not unusual for this area? Maybe won't be unusual in the future but it is not yet common.

Actually, this storm has produced less than rainfall and flooding than many others.  The rainfall totals from Emily ranged fron 4-6" across Dade county.  This pales in comparison to past storms.  Hurricane Cleo in 1964 dumped 9" of rain over the Miami Area.  Hurricane Andrew in 1992 dumped 14" on the area, causing massive destruction.  Miami Beach was completely cut off from greater Miami after the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (before they were given names).  Rainfall totals have not been recorded, but the storm surge was a record 17 feet.  The 1928 "Okeechobee Hurricane" was the second deadliest on record, due to rainfall that caused the aforementioned lake to overflow its banks and flood the surrounding areas. 

Yes, this is fairly common for a hurricane or tropical storm hitting this area.  However, even non-tropical storms can cause severe flooding.  The 1984 "Thanksgiving Storm" dumped 11" of rain on West Palm Beach, and combined with gale force winds, produced 5' tides and 20' swells.

One of the takeaways with Emily wrt Miami is the vulnerability of the counter measures.  Power failures along with no backup generators led to failure of the pumping mechanisms.  Here below we have yet another example in New Orleans from last week.  The pumping mechanisms were overwhelmed by the intensity of the precipitation rates and flooding.  So two of the most vulnerable cities in the US performed poorly, and with sea level trends rising and the threat of enhanced cyclones and precipitation in the future, it should call into question the readiness and soundness of adaptive measures.

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_monday_up.html (http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_monday_up.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 07, 2017, 03:35:32 PM
"New drone footage shows New Orleans under water following heavy rainfall and flash floods: "
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/894450006651879424
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 07, 2017, 04:09:32 PM
What it's like, living in a flooded section of New Orleans.

Just sitting here on my porch, watching the trash float by
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flooding_new_orleans_mid-city.html (http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flooding_new_orleans_mid-city.html)


Truck driver who sped down flooded Mid-City streets fired amid video outrage
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flood_driver_fired_mid-city_au.html (http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flood_driver_fired_mid-city_au.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2017, 12:28:05 AM
 New Orleans pump failure now admitted

8 major drainage pumps and 6 “constant duty” pumps were broken during Saturday's floods in New Orleans
Quote
Eight major drainage pumps weren't working during the severe flooding in New Orleans on Saturday, in addition to others being down for maintenance. But the Sewerage and Water Board's initial statement that the system was operating at full capacity was intended to mean that "all of the pump stations were working at the capacity they had available to them," the board's general superintendent said Tuesday (Aug. 5).

Joseph Becker's explanation for the apparent conflict in statements drew audible outrage from the crowd packed in the City Council chambers for a public meeting held to examine the city's response. More than 9 inches of rain was recorded, leading to floods that damaged homes, businesses and vehicles in Mid-City and other neighborhoods.

In addition to the eight major pumps, another six, smaller capacity "constant duty" pumps that stay on for everyday groundwater needs were also out, Becker said.

Council President Jason Williams suggested that the Sewerage and Water Board's initial insistence that the system was fully working was a "complete fabrication." ...
https://articles.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/8_drainage_pumps_were_broken_d.amp
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 12, 2017, 01:40:59 AM
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards declares state of emergency over New Orleans flooding concerns
Quote
Updated on August 11, 2017 at 9:09 AM Posted on August 10, 2017 at 11:42 AM
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards has declared a state of emergency Thursday (Aug. 10) as a precautionary measure, in the event that the state has to help with flooding in New Orleans over the next few days.  

"If we get the heavier expected rainfall, time will be of the essence," Edwards said at a press conference with Mayor Mitch Landrieu Thursday morning. "We are working well together. Obviously this is a serious situation, but it is not something to be panicked about." 
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flood_emergency.html (http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flood_emergency.html)

Before New Orleans flood, audit warned of drainage system's deficiencies
https://articles.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_latest_sw.amp (https://articles.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_latest_sw.amp)

Here's how New Orleans' drainage is supposed to work
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_how_the_d.html (http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_how_the_d.html)

'We can't pump our way out': Rethinking New Orleans' approach to flood control
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_living_wi.html (http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_living_wi.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 14, 2017, 03:24:58 PM
Kees vander Leun: Heavy heatwave in Iraq: temperature in Basrah, city of 2 million people, to hit 49-52°C (120-126F), 10 days in a row!
https://twitter.com/soubundanga/status/896755350828859393
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 14, 2017, 04:31:31 PM
Many people underestimate the impact of climate change on insects, but the linked article on Arctic mosquitoes is only one example many, many such impacts:

Title: "Why the Arctic's Mosquito Problem Is Getting Bigger, Badder"

http://www.nationalgeographic.com.au/nature/why-the-arctics-mosquito-problem-is-getting-bigger-badder.aspx (http://www.nationalgeographic.com.au/nature/why-the-arctics-mosquito-problem-is-getting-bigger-badder.aspx)

Extract: "During two recent field seasons in Greenland, Culler found that with the Arctic already warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe, ponds and lakes on the tundra are melting up to several weeks sooner. When that happens mosquitoes take wing earlier.

“It was really when the pond thawed that triggered the hatch,” Culler says. “That’s not unexpected. Lots of biology is triggered by these melting events.”

But she also found that warming allowed the insects to develop faster, which had a huge impact on survival. Mosquitoes are most vulnerable in their early life stages, when they are easily gobbled up by diving pond beetles. Even though these beetles, too, are growing faster and eating more, mosquitoes still managed to make it to their adult stage in greater numbers."
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 19, 2017, 04:20:30 PM
Kuwait's inferno: how will the world's hottest city survive climate change?
Quote
It is 9am and the temperature in Kuwait City is 45C and rising, but already people working outside. A row of litter-pickers are already hard at work along a coastal highway, their entire bodies covered to protect them from the sun. Outside one of the city’s many malls, valets hover beside the air-conditioned entrance, while two men in white hats huddle wearily next to their ice cream stands.

Other city residents are luckier. They can avoid the outdoors altogether, escaping the inferno by sheltering in malls, cars and office buildings, where temperatures are kept polar-cold.

For years, Kuwait’s climate has been steadily heating up. In the summer months, the Gulf state now frequently touches 50C, and was last year awarded the grim prize of being the hottest place on earth, when temperatures reached a staggering high of 54C.

But while the capital is making plans to prepare for climate change and the rising heat, there are growing concerns for those residents who cannot afford to shelter inside, and mounting questions about how such an energy-intensive city can survive as resources such as water and oil dwindle.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/aug/18/kuwait-city-hottest-place-earth-climate-change-gulf-oil-temperatures (https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/aug/18/kuwait-city-hottest-place-earth-climate-change-gulf-oil-temperatures)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 22, 2017, 10:13:54 PM
Taking precaution: New Orleans crafting evacuation plans in case heavy rainfall hits while drainage repairs continue
Quote
New Orleans, in consultation with state and federal officials, is developing a plan to evacuate the city if unusually heavy rainfall is expected while repairs are being made to the pumps and power turbines that drive its drainage system.

The exact threshold at which an evacuation would be called depends on a variety of factors, but one person familiar with the plans said that while the Sewerage & Water Board’s equipment is at diminished capacity over the next few weeks, a forecast of a rare storm that would drop 12 inches [305 mm] of rain over a 24-hour period could be the trigger.
...
http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/article_c2b40bd4-85ee-11e7-af72-23bae8c5c4a6.html (http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/article_c2b40bd4-85ee-11e7-af72-23bae8c5c4a6.html)


But the catastrophic floods of a few weeks ago (see above posts) happened with "only" about nine inches of rain...

... and two tropical storms are headed for the U.S. in the next 7 days:
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/899975073980973057 (https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/899975073980973057)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on August 24, 2017, 06:01:52 AM
Maybe should have posted this sooner but I wanted to see how it played out. Referencing post #270 & #272.
I live at 40deg North, in NJ, along the east coast, not far from the back bay.  Several months ago FEMA offered at grant to do a feasibility study concerning a sea wall to protect infrastructure and private property from flooding due to sea level rise.

This smallish neighborhood is quite unique, it sits on an isthmus of land with three ways in/out, two of which are bridges over salt water(both of whom flood at mean higher high tides).  The bay/tidal basin is 880 acres, nearly 2/3 of which wash out with the tide twice a day. Over the last 2-3 years there has been a marked increase in the nuisance flooding, mostly water backing up through the storm drains, add in a east set wind and water is over the road. 

Since this grant was announced the sales folks have come in heavy handed, from concrete mattresses to a Living shore Lines. I was at the town hall meeting when a slide show was given on the living shoreline; the salesman giving the presentation laughingly skipped right over the section marked; Climate Change…SLR and Mitigation.  I stood right up and said “that’s why were here, is it not?  Almost know one wanted to hear about this.
Some of the ensuing remarks were just staggering…”I’ve lived here for 40yrs and it has never flooded”…..”the Ice Caps aren’t melting, that’s preposterous! 

I’m now hearing their going with the living shoreline w/some sections of a sea wall,
which will do nothing. The flood plain contains about 70 high end homes 4-6ft above sea level, (minus 2.5 ft. for the tide swing) which does not matter at all, once this starts homes in the community will be near worthless.

The same thing happened in the Atlantic Highlands about 20 miles north of here.  Folks made such a ruckus about a sea wall blocking their view they did nothing.  Again, in Neptune City…same thing. 

Now, in the long run a 3-4ft sea wall above mean higher high tide, although it presents it’s own set of problems, would delay salt water encroaching onto nearby roads maybe for several decades, but it would eventually fail.  I do not pretend to know the right or wrong of this.  Folks that know tell me to move.  we.ve lived here for 35yrs, my wife says were not moving....I'm thinking....go sailing

bligh
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on August 24, 2017, 06:37:06 AM
Thank you for sharing this, bligh8. Very interesting.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: P-maker on August 24, 2017, 11:04:39 AM
Hi Bligh

You seem to be going through an existential crisis right now. To sell, or not to sell; to fight your neighbours, or not to fight; to fight your President’s focus on selling arms to rich people to protect themselves, or to spend your time doing much more clever things.

In my view (inspired by quite a few similar situations), I would tell my wife to shut up for the moment! Then look for a high-lying house (at least 6-8 m above sea level) with a view over the lowlands. From there, I would engage in local community work to help people downstream of your property escape from flooding, when tropical cyclones  such as #Harvey comes your way (it’s called water tanks). Then I would make sure to install some solar-driven cooling system in order to survive heat waves like in Iraq or Kuwait.

Then I would put on the kettle and expect visitors from overseas.

Cheers P
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on August 24, 2017, 03:56:25 PM
thanks for the thoughtful replies

Strategies for Flood Risk Reduction for Vulnerable Coastal Populations around Barnegat Bay.

Barnegat Bay is the next bay south, some 30 miles south of Sandy Hook, Raritan Bay & New York Harbor.

Note: this paper uses IPCC values for SLR…. it’s interesting, but 339 pages long.

THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise. A rise in sea level and coastal subsidence will increase the levels of flooding, and the low-lying areas will be permanently inundated. Global warming has raised global sea level about 8 inches since 1880 (US EPA). It is predicted that global mean sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 will be between nine and eighty eight centimeters (Nicholls, 2002). Most models indicate that flooding will continue to worsen as sea surface elevation increases because all storms will be operating on a higher water level at the outlet. Model predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a rapid sea level rise for the Northeast Atlantic Coast of the United States in the twenty-first century (Yin et al., 2009). In the NY/NJ metropolitan region, sea levels are predicted to rise by 18–60 cm by the 2050s, and 24–108 cm by the 2080s over late 20th century levels (Gornitz et al., 2010; Cahoon and Gunttenspergen, 2010). This means that coastal flooding associated with sea level rise will become a significant issue in the next 100 years Relative sea level rise around Barnegat Bay results from ongoing coastal subsidence since the end of the last glacial period as well as eustatic sea level rise caused by melting glaciers and thermal expansion of the ocean. Increases in sea level and runoff have severely stressed existing stormwater infrastructure such as storm sewer pipes, drainage ditches, culverts, detention basins, and household sump pumps. The infrastructure is in need of significant improvements and may need to be redesigned to deal with changing conditions. The following flood maps (Fig. 2.1) show the predicted extent of inundation at Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) when the water in Barnegat Bay rises 1ft, 2ft, 3ft, 4ft, and 6ft for Seaside Heights Borough. The green color represents the low-lying areas. The portrayals of the extent of inundation for other townships / boroughs are provided in Appendix A.

http://www.nj.gov/dep/docs/flood/final-studies/rutgers-barnegat/barnegat-bay-study-area-flood-mitigation-final-report.pdf (http://www.nj.gov/dep/docs/flood/final-studies/rutgers-barnegat/barnegat-bay-study-area-flood-mitigation-final-report.pdf)

See Also:

I see the township using these numbers for guidance’s.

 http://geology.rutgers.edu/images/stories/faculty/miller_kenneth_g/Sealevelfactsheet7112014update.pdf (http://geology.rutgers.edu/images/stories/faculty/miller_kenneth_g/Sealevelfactsheet7112014update.pdf)

bligh
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: P-maker on August 24, 2017, 06:30:27 PM
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: solartim27 on August 27, 2017, 06:38:23 PM
In case you missed this in December, it's coming true now.  Excellent reporting, well worth looking at.  Stock market is going to tank on Monday.
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk.

Boomtown, Flood Town
"Climate change will bring more frequent and fierce rainstorms to cities like Houston. But unchecked development remains a priority in the famously un-zoned city, creating short-term economic gains for some while increasing flood risks for everyone."
https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/

And do read the companion piece
Quote
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk. Read about why Texas isn't ready for the next big hurricane.
https://projects.propublica.org/houston/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on August 27, 2017, 08:45:00 PM
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on August 27, 2017, 11:05:32 PM
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?

Daniel,

Your comment professes a complete ignorance of recent scientific research in this area (Hansen, Rignot etc.), and the contents of many posts on this blog (see the Sea Level Rise and Cost of Carbon topic), that points to the probability of rapid SLR in the balance of this century. Let's remember that the UN IPCC projections basically ignored more pessimistic views on ice sheet dynamics. With a complex system, such as the climate, historic observations may not be a very useful guide to the future. If you look at the record of global sea level rise you will see the acceleration that has occurred in recent decades.

Due to gravitational effects, and the most significant amount of SLR coming from Antarctica, the rise will be greater (about 25% or more) on the U.S. coasts.

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0 (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0)

Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat

"James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, summarized the evidence for rapid sea level rise in a recent controversial paper, raising some eyebrows at its stark warnings of catastrophe. Though many researchers have taken issue with the dramatic tone and specific details of that paper, its conclusion — that multi-meter sea level rise is possible in the next 50, 100, or 200 years — does not seem so alarmist in the face of other recent work."

http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica (http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica)


Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on August 28, 2017, 06:17:13 PM
That 10-12ft remark kinda spooked me. 

Our entire civilization is built on the premise
of a stable coast line, this is something we will not have for centuries to come. I fear we have already lost Greenland and the WAIS and some of, if not all the marine terminating glaciers around east Antarctica.  These papers.. Article #: 5799(2017) doi10.1038,… DOI: 10.1002/2016GlO68506 (it is the timing and no so much the content of this paper), and  whats up in Disco-Uummannaq bay along with the mention of a possible saddle collapse. And of course the dramatic loss of the Arctic sea ice….all of these and a great many many more papers are truly scary.

But I’m a simple old sailor, who in my minds eye, see the vastness of the global destruction and the loss of many a beloved places across the planet due to SLR. Here, back home I shudder as folks march with signs ”No sea wall”…my birdbaths go unused, the nighttime din of the ever-present summertime insects seems all but gone.

I take great delight listing to the sounds of the children laughing and somehow hold out hope that they enjoy their lives as much as I have enjoyed mine.
bligh



Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on August 28, 2017, 06:56:29 PM
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?

Daniel,

Your comment professes a complete ignorance of recent scientific research in this area (Hansen, Rignot etc.), and the contents of many posts on this blog (see the Sea Level Rise and Cost of Carbon topic), that points to the probability of rapid SLR in the balance of this century. Let's remember that the UN IPCC projections basically ignored more pessimistic views on ice sheet dynamics. With a complex system, such as the climate, historic observations may not be a very useful guide to the future. If you look at the record of global sea level rise you will see the acceleration that has occurred in recent decades.

Due to gravitational effects, and the most significant amount of SLR coming from Antarctica, the rise will be greater (about 25% or more) on the U.S. coasts.

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0 (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0)

Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat

"James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, summarized the evidence for rapid sea level rise in a recent controversial paper, raising some eyebrows at its stark warnings of catastrophe. Though many researchers have taken issue with the dramatic tone and specific details of that paper, its conclusion — that multi-meter sea level rise is possible in the next 50, 100, or 200 years — does not seem so alarmist in the face of other recent work."

http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica (http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica)

No, it does not.  Those predictions of rapid SLR this century all include the demise of the WAIS.  There is little evidence that this will occur.  Just large amounts of speculation that it could.  Other research shows that the WAIS has been quite stable over millions of years, and during warmer periods. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4742792/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4742792/)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000545/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000545/abstract)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170505103629.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170505103629.htm)

Other publications claim that melting could occur quite rapidly, over a thousand years!

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/archive/wie-stabil-ist-der-westantarktische-eisschild.html (https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/archive/wie-stabil-ist-der-westantarktische-eisschild.html)

Choosing only those published reports that share your own biases does not make good science.  Neither does denigrate those who hold different opinions.  What acceleration in recent decades? 

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Ned W on August 28, 2017, 07:02:53 PM
Quote
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion. 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on August 28, 2017, 08:02:16 PM
Quote
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion.
An "extreme upper bound" I can agree with.  However, to make such claims as SLR of 6-8 m this century (as another poster to which I responded), seems rather ludicrous.  Would you not agree?  Also, I cannot agree with concatenating two separate databases to draw conclusions upon.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Ned W on August 28, 2017, 08:19:09 PM
Quote
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion.
An "extreme upper bound" I can agree with.  However, to make such claims as SLR of 6-8 m this century (as another poster to which I responded), seems rather ludicrous.  Would you not agree?  Also, I cannot agree with concatenating two separate databases to draw conclusions upon.
I think the person to whom you were responding (P-maker) was saying ~3 m of SLR this century; the 6-8 m thing comes from adding a (temporary) storm surge a la Superstorm Sandy on top of that.

3 m is still outside NOAA's "extreme upper bound", so it seems a bit high to me. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "concatenating two separate databases".  If you mean the Tamino link, he's not concatenating databases; he does compare the satellite and in-situ sea level data sets, but doesn't try to merge them together.  He uses the in-situ data set to demonstrate acceleration in sea level (pretty much indisputable in the longer-term in-situ data set, but not yet detectable in the satellite one as far as I know).

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on August 28, 2017, 09:08:18 PM
I think the person to whom you were responding (P-maker) was saying ~3 m of SLR this century; the 6-8 m thing comes from adding a (temporary) storm surge a la Superstorm Sandy on top of that.

3 m is still outside NOAA's "extreme upper bound", so it seems a bit high to me. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "concatenating two separate databases".  If you mean the Tamino link, he's not concatenating databases; he does compare the satellite and in-situ sea level data sets, but doesn't try to merge them together.  He uses the in-situ data set to demonstrate acceleration in sea level (pretty much indisputable in the longer-term in-situ data set, but not yet detectable in the satellite one as far as I know).

Once again, we agree that there is no acceleration evident in the satellite data.  There is no acceleration evident in the tidal gauge data, unless one goes back more than 75 years.  Hence, we cannot say (with confidence) that acceleration has occurred in "recent decades." 

<edit: Daniel, when quoting someone else, try to remove the chain of previous comments, and only quote the part you want to react to, like I've just done for this comment, thanks; N.>
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Ned W on August 28, 2017, 09:48:51 PM
I hear you and I don't necessarily agree or disagree (hah!) but I have wasted too much time dealing with nonsense in a different thread to pursue this one further at this time.  Maybe another day. 

That said, I completely and 100% agree with this remark of yours from a few posts back:

Quote
Choosing only those published reports that share your own biases does not make good science.  Neither does denigrate those who hold different opinions.

We should all keep those in mind.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 01:09:21 AM
"Severe Repetitive Loss Properties — those that have been consistently damaged and rebuilt — account for just 1 percent of policies but as much as 30 percent of the funds paid out in claims. Many of the residential properties that carry National Flood Insurance Program policies have also been “grandfathered” in, meaning that policyholders can keep paying existing rates as their flood risk increases."

Now Comes the Uncomfortable Question: Who Gets to Rebuild After Harvey?
https://theintercept.com/2017/08/30/national-flood-insurance-program-harvey-who-gets-to-rebuild/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on September 06, 2017, 04:08:45 PM
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


“With storm surge and heavy rainfall increasing and climate and sea level rise, the system is just not working,” he said. “Millions more people need flood insurance than have it and the crazy thing about Houston was only 15 percent of those who were flooded had flood insurance. The risk communication is not enough.
“You have thousands of properties in Norfolk, Annapolis, Atlantic City, Savannah, Charleston and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720)

bligh
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on September 06, 2017, 08:05:54 PM
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


“With storm surge and heavy rainfall increasing and climate and sea level rise, the system is just not working,” he said. “Millions more people need flood insurance than have it and the crazy thing about Houston was only 15 percent of those who were flooded had flood insurance. The risk communication is not enough.
“You have thousands of properties in Norfolk, Annapolis, Atlantic City, Savannah, Charleston and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720)

bligh

All these events tend to do, is drive up the value of unaffected properties in the proximity.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-sbuildaug20-story.html (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-sbuildaug20-story.html)

http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2015/08/new_orleans_home_prices_up_46.html (http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2015/08/new_orleans_home_prices_up_46.html)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/realestate/hurricane-sandy-rebuilding-jersey-shore-towns.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/realestate/hurricane-sandy-rebuilding-jersey-shore-towns.html)







Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on September 06, 2017, 09:04:24 PM

Sink or swim financially or physically. Unaffordable or underwater, unlivable either way.  :-\
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 09:17:34 PM
Real estate industry blocks sea-level warnings that could crimp profits on coastal properties
Quote
[Sea level rise threatening coasts] is not good news for people who market and build waterfront houses. But real estate lobbyists aren’t going down without a fight. Some are teaming up with climate change skeptics and small government advocates to block public release of sea-level rise predictions and ensure that coastal planning is not based on them.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on September 19, 2017, 02:14:46 PM
Real estate industry blocks sea-level warnings that could crimp profits on coastal properties
Quote
[Sea level rise threatening coasts] is not good news for people who market and build waterfront houses. But real estate lobbyists aren’t going down without a fight. Some are teaming up with climate change skeptics and small government advocates to block public release of sea-level rise predictions and ensure that coastal planning is not based on them.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html)
Bad news that the story has to be told.
Great news that the story is being told, locally.


Climate change "is a political agenda promoted to control every aspect of our lives", according to a plank of the 2016 Texas Republican Party.


Aprz Harvey in Houston- "Hale up. Glub Glub. Hail-pp.  We'sle build'er ratsup heer were hers alass beed. Her neffer gotch 'erself hitten afore, Ah don think?"


Wid GoAds Hailup, she woan git hit tagain.
Gim me ma money!
Lez Prey.


Terry

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: CalamityCountdown on September 19, 2017, 06:42:11 PM
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html (http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html)

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on September 19, 2017, 07:03:49 PM
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html (http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html)

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic
A few comments:
Irma and Maria are quite similar in their origin and behavior and indeed devastated Caribbean islands as Cat 5. But Harvey is a different story altogether, irrelevant to Caribbean islands, and its mention detracts from the message.
Barbuda has not been abandoned, only temporarily evacuated AFAIK. This was due to Jose threatening to hit so quickly after Irma.
The wiki page on Dominica says
Quote
In 1979, Dominica was hit directly by category 5 Hurricane David, causing widespread and extreme damage.
So 0 Cat 5 storms hitting before 2017 doesn't seem accurate, though I saw the same twitter claim elsewhere.
Finally, I do believe future Atlantic hurricanes will trend towards more "monster" cases, due to higher SSTs and more atmospheric moisture. This doesn't make Caribbean islands uninhabitable, but it does make their habitability less economical.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Reallybigbunny on September 30, 2017, 03:06:05 AM
New Zealand's intensive dairy farming has resulting in insane pollution of waterways! People are believing an illusion that New Zealand is clean and green. See the attached Aljazeera 2 part documentary (This takes you to the second part if the document that contains a link to the first part of the documentary).

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2017/08/polluted-paradise-170831042123144.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2017/08/polluted-paradise-170831042123144.html)


Also see Te Waikoropupu Springs web site at the address below. Some of the most pure water in the world and one of the most beautiful places in the world is becoming polluted!!! Cow's grazing beside these springs!!! Unbelievable!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1331895920181484&set=gm.1942092929405913&type=3 (https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1331895920181484&set=gm.1942092929405913&type=3)

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 05, 2017, 06:36:41 PM
King Tide + on-shore wind + heavy rain:  flooding in Miami, Florida today.

Some tweets from Miami's Republican mayor this morning:
- Today, Miami is flooding as if a hurricane went through it.
- In Downtown Miami. The ocean is rising above the sea walls.
- I *was* wearing rain boots. Didn't help.
- Firefighter boots are above the knee. #Kingtide water rises above them. #sealevelrise #drycleaning
- Spoiler alert. It's climate change
- The #MiamiForever bond will include pumping stations, higher sea walls, new parks and affordable housing.
https://twitter.com/tomas_regalado/status/915962563489300482


Other people's tweets:
 Last night around 8pm the right lane on 17th St. bridge to 836W was totally flooded. I worked in the area for years never saw this happen.
https://twitter.com/samsofimama/status/915975636778344448


Is it a parking lot or the ocean? #kingtide season in #miami :)
https://twitter.com/bluegreenmiami/status/915930282649374720
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 05, 2017, 06:57:02 PM
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html (http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html)

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic

Finally, I do believe future Atlantic hurricanes will trend towards more "monster" cases, due to higher SSTs and more atmospheric moisture. This doesn't make Caribbean islands uninhabitable, but it does make their habitability less economical.

In Caribbean nations where residents have few options, they will choose to rebuild and hope for the best. Where residents do have viable options and, as U.S. citizens, Puerto Ricans do, we should expect to see large numbers move to the U.S. In fact, depending on the speed at which the island's infrastructure is repaired, as many as 1 million Puerto Ricans may permanently relocate to the U.S., destroying the Puerto Rican economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-puerto-ricans-are-coming/2017/09/27/aa49a5fa-a3b6-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.1ede9fcd8bbd (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-puerto-ricans-are-coming/2017/09/27/aa49a5fa-a3b6-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.1ede9fcd8bbd)

It kind of depends on what we think of as "uninhabitable". If 30% of the residents in Puerto Rico decide this is the case, whose opinion should carry more weight, some resident of the U.S. who is deciding whether to go out for breakfast this morning or residents of Puerto Rico who are living the nightmare. I go with the latter.

The only real question in my mind is whether we should consider these people "climate refugees".
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 05, 2017, 07:05:48 PM
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


...and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720)

bligh

Streets in Miami Beach flood frequently on sunny days during high tide. Since this flooding is, in part, caused by water percolating up from sewers, you are not only driving through salt water but feces laden waste water.

Sewer infrastructure in coastal cities are most vulnerable to persistent flooding and solutions are problematic if not impossible. All it will take is one serious outbreak of diseases uncommon to Americans (not really seen since the 1800's) and watch how quickly a city is perceived as "uninhabitable".

Maybe we will see weather forecasting address this in the manner that they currently measure ozone levels. Can't wait to see 'poop alerts' on my T.V.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on October 06, 2017, 11:11:18 AM
Some tweets from Miami's Republican mayor this morning:
- Today, Miami is flooding as if a hurricane went through it.
- In Downtown Miami. The ocean is rising above the sea walls.
- I *was* wearing rain boots. Didn't help.
- Firefighter boots are above the knee. #Kingtide water rises above them. #sealevelrise #drycleaning
- Spoiler alert. It's climate change
- The #MiamiForever bond will include pumping stations, higher sea walls, new parks and affordable housing.
The mayor is surprisingly sensible (perhaps not surprising actually, as in Miami it's hard to avoid noticing SLR), but the name of the bond is funny in a sad sort of way. Some decades from here, many won't laugh at the joke.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Bernard on October 06, 2017, 12:08:20 PM
Meanwhile, the southeastern France (particularly Provence) is suffering the worst drought since 60 years, aggraved by record heat this summer. Soil moisture is at a record low, and the weather forecast is dry for the two next weeks. Today the "mistral" northerly wind will blow hard, with fears of new wildfires. Even in the northern part of the region, in mountains where I'm living, the level of streams is frightening. I have articles in French only so far, sorry.
http://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/alpes-maritimes/secheresse-toujours-persistante-paca-meteo-france-1340717.html (http://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/alpes-maritimes/secheresse-toujours-persistante-paca-meteo-france-1340717.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2017, 01:31:04 PM
Some tweets from Miami's Republican mayor this morning:
- Today, Miami is flooding as if a hurricane went through it.
- In Downtown Miami. The ocean is rising above the sea walls.
- I *was* wearing rain boots. Didn't help.
- Firefighter boots are above the knee. #Kingtide water rises above them. #sealevelrise #drycleaning
- Spoiler alert. It's climate change
- The #MiamiForever bond will include pumping stations, higher sea walls, new parks and affordable housing.
The mayor is surprisingly sensible (perhaps not surprising actually, as in Miami it's hard to avoid noticing SLR), but the name of the bond is funny in a sad sort of way. Some decades from here, many won't laugh at the joke.

Yes.  The "MiamiForever" name was probably necessary to get politicians to think a little further out in time than the next election.  You'll recall that Florida is the state where councilmen were forbidden to utter the words "climate change." ::)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 06, 2017, 04:42:31 PM
I noticed the bond will include 'affordable housing'. Always best to locate the poor in the path of rising seas.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on October 12, 2017, 11:48:05 PM
BBC piece on the Death of the Nile:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/death_of_the_nile (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/death_of_the_nile)

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on October 13, 2017, 12:12:50 PM
BBC piece on the Death of ghe Nile:
Excellent article, thanks sidd. While the river is deteriorating, the population of the basin grows quickly. This will result in some major catastrophe for millions or even 10s of millions at some point, with the resulting death toll, human suffering and waves of refugees.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2017, 08:32:38 PM
Miami, Florida.

We’ll call this the “halftime show”. #KingTides not quite as high as 2 weeks ago, and a warmup to the king of King Tides in November.
    https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/919986632836698113

City of Miami: Starting tomorrow 10/17 - 10/21, #KingTides will be affecting #Miami.  Please take necessary steps to mitigate the effects of tidal flooding
     https://twitter.com/CityofMiami/status/919940510940303360
Images below.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2017, 03:18:27 AM
The Boomtown That Shouldn’t Exist
Cape Coral, Florida, was built on total lies. One big storm could wipe it off the map. Oh, and it’s also the fastest-growing city in the United States.
Quote
As Cape Coral may be the best place to gauge the future of the dream—and to see whether Florida has any hope of overcoming its zany developmental, political and environmental history—because Cape Coral is the ultimate microcosm of Florida. It’s literally a peninsula jutting off the peninsula, the least natural, worst-planned, craziest-growing piece of an unnatural, badly planned, crazy-growing state. Man has sculpted it into an almost comically artificial landscape, with a Seven Islands section featuring seven perfectly rectangular islands and an Eight Lakes neighborhood featuring eight perfectly square lakes. And while much of Florida now yo-yos between routine droughts and routine floods, Cape Coral’s fluctuations are particularly wild. This spring, the city faced a water shortage so dire that its fire department feared it couldn’t rely on its hydrants, yet this summer, the city endured a record-breaking flood. And that “50-year rain event” came two weeks before Irma, which was also supposedly a 50-year event.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/20/fastest-growing-city-america-florida-cape-coral-215724
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Reallybigbunny on October 22, 2017, 06:11:12 AM
That was a great read. I didn't know about Cape Coral. Thanks Sigmetnow!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2017, 02:05:23 AM
Phoenix, Arizona

Phoenix's heat is rising — and so is the danger
Quote
During the hottest week of the year in America's hottest big city, 10 people died of heat-related causes.

Another nine people died the following week in metro Phoenix, as June gave way to July, and authorities suspect heat may have contributed to an additional 27 deaths over those two weeks.

The average temperature in Phoenix in that period was 113 degrees, peaking at 119 on June 20, the day of the summer solstice. On four days, the temperature never dropped below 90 degrees, even in the dead of night.

By the first day of fall, Arizona's notorious heat had contributed to more than 60 deaths in Maricopa County and was suspected in 119 more since the start of 2017. ...
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2017/10/18/deadly-heat-phoenix-getting-hotter-so-danger/694283001/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2017, 02:09:38 AM
That was a great read. I didn't know about Cape Coral. Thanks Sigmetnow!

Cape Coral was one of the first places ordered to evacuate for Hurricane Irma.  Now we know why. :o
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 28, 2017, 09:30:25 PM
Why Isn’t the Bond Market More Worried About Climate Change?
  Coastal towns destroyed by Sandy still have perfect credit scores. Why?
Quote
... Miami currently has a double-A bond rating, meaning that the city can borrow money at low rates. Amidst the dire predictions and the full moon floods, that rating is a bulwark. It signifies that the financial industry doesn’t think sea level rise and storm risk will prevent Miami from paying off its debts. In December, a report issued by President Obama’s budget office outlined a potential virtuous cycle: Borrow money to build seawalls and the like while your credit is good, and your credit will still be good when you need to borrow in the future.

The alternative: Flood-prone jurisdictions go into the financial tailspin we recognize from cities like Detroit, unable to borrow enough to protect the assets whose declining value makes it harder to borrow. ...
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/10/the_bond_industry_isn_t_worried_about_climate_change.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 28, 2017, 10:00:56 PM
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2017, 01:25:47 AM
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.

30-year bonds. 30-year mortgages. How long until the financial industry comes to the conclusion that, "There's a good chance this seaside residence won't survive 30 years"?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 29, 2017, 02:12:58 AM
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.

30-year bonds. 30-year mortgages. How long until the financial industry comes to the conclusion that, "There's a good chance this seaside residence won't survive 30 years"?

I think soon but it will be a creeping kind of realization. By 2030 or 2040 in some places.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pileus on October 29, 2017, 02:33:29 AM
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.

30-year bonds. 30-year mortgages. How long until the financial industry comes to the conclusion that, "There's a good chance this seaside residence won't survive 30 years"?

I think soon but it will be a creeping kind of realization. By 2030 or 2040 in some places.

It's full speed ahead in Florida at waters' edge.  Irma did nothing to slow the momentum.  Even someone who should know better, Bill Gates, is one of the primary funders of Tampa's Water Street (aptly named, but not for the reason they think) project, a massive business and real estate development in the most vulnerable city in Florida behind Miami.  Irma tracks 50 miles to the west and it might have shifted the conversation, but until there is a Maria scale disaster on the mainland nothing is going to stop the building boom.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2017, 07:09:23 PM
“The Union of Concerned Scientists did its own analysis and determined that with sea level rise of just 1.4 feet, the base's low-lying areas would flood about 280 times each year, spending 10 percent of the time underwater.”

Rising Seas Are Flooding Virginia's Naval Base, and There Is No Plan to Fix It
The giant naval base at Norfolk is under threat by rising waters and sinking land, but little is being done to hold back the tides.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10252017/military-norfolk-naval-base-flooding-climate-change-sea-level-global-warming-virginia
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 29, 2017, 07:16:54 PM
Norfolk is the largest U.S. naval base.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2017, 07:42:17 PM
Norfolk is the largest U.S. naval base.

Also, the largest in the world.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 29, 2017, 07:46:38 PM
It is not just the base at risk. Norfolk is situated in the largest and most vulnerable tidewater region in the U.S. It is also the region of the east coast that is expected to have the highest sea level rise as a result of being near the Gulf Stream which piles water upon the shore line. The Hampton Roads Metropolitan Statistical Area of which Norfolk is a part (officially known as the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA) is the 37th largest in the United States, with an estimated population of 1,716,624 in 2014. All of this area is threatened by sea level rise. The city has a total area of 96 square miles (250 km2), of which 54 square miles (140 km2) is land and 42 square miles (110 km2) (43.9%) is water.

Norfolk is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Some areas already flood regularly at high tide, and the city commissioned a study in 2012 to investigate how to address the issue in the future. It reported the cost of dealing with a sea-level rise of one foot would be around $1,000,000,000. Since then, scientists at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science in 2013 have estimated that if current trends hold, the sea in Norfolk will rise by 5 and 1/2 feet or more by the end of this century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norfolk,_Virginia

Tides run between 3 and 4 feet in Norfolk and with a 5 feet rise in sea level, sea levels would be 8 feet higher at high tide by the end of the century.

The 1st image is of coastal tidewater regions.

The 2nd image is a tide forecast.

The 3rd image is the 8 foot flood map.

I would have to imagine that other cities in the region have similar issues they are facing.

That last image would suggest the city will be unlivable by the end of the century.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on October 30, 2017, 07:54:43 PM
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 30, 2017, 08:08:05 PM
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on October 30, 2017, 09:06:29 PM
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.
If 8 ft. high tides are forecast for 2100, how much earlier before high tide + storm surge tops the 8 ft. mark?
Terry

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on October 31, 2017, 02:57:36 PM
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.

Other scientists disagree with Virginia Tech.  The following details how the land around Norfolk is subsiding by about 3 mm/yr due mostly to ground water extraction. 

https://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=78612&
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on October 31, 2017, 04:25:23 PM
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.

Other scientists disagree with Virginia Tech.  The following details how the land around Norfolk is subsiding by about 3 mm/yr due mostly to ground water extraction. 

https://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=78612& (https://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=78612&)


One group of scientists states that sea level rise and ground subsistence will cause problems around Norfolk.
Another group of scientists says that ground subsistence and sea level rise will cause problems around Norfolk.
Who should we believe?
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 31, 2017, 06:30:43 PM

One group of scientists states that sea level rise and ground subsistence will cause problems around Norfolk.
Another group of scientists says that ground subsistence and sea level rise will cause problems around Norfolk.
Who should we believe?
Terry

 ;D

The only question is whether he is very misinformed or a troll.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on October 31, 2017, 07:26:42 PM

One group of scientists states that sea level rise and ground subsistence will cause problems around Norfolk.
Another group of scientists says that ground subsistence and sea level rise will cause problems around Norfolk.
Who should we believe?
Terry

 ;D

The only question is whether he is very misinformed or a troll.


I assume the latter.
BTW, very much appreciated your comments re. oil prices, a subject I'm not familiar with.
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on November 02, 2017, 07:23:19 AM
Summer wet bulb temperatures to jump under RCP 8.8

"Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century."

doi:10.1002/2017EF000639

Open access. Read all about it.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 02, 2017, 03:48:39 PM
Please excuse me for reposting a variation of a comment just posted but I wanted to drive home a point to emphasize how critical the situation is for vulnerable tidewater regions in the U.S. I also would like the casual visitor to be able to assess the comments from our resident trolls.

The first chart is a current chart of tides that are occurring in Norfolk for the week of Friday, October 27 through Saturday, November 4. When looking at these high tides, it is important to remember that some of the lowest areas of Norfolk already flood at high tide. These most vulnerable regions flood daily! For the week, high tide varies from 2.6 feet to 3.9 feet.

The North Carolina coast will be experiencing the fastest growth in sea levels of any region of the U.S., primarily due to it being along the Gulf Stream which shoves water up against the coast as it flows by. Sea levels are expected to rise 5 feet by 2100. If the Atlantic overturning were to diminish which could slow the flow of the Gulf Stream, sea levels would rise even higher.

The 2nd image (a map of Norfolk) shows the areas of the city that will flood at high tide in 2100. Please remember, these areas will flood every single day of the year!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 02, 2017, 03:53:54 PM
In a 2012 study, commissioned by the City of Norfolk, it was determined that it will cost $1 billion to address a sea level rise of 1 foot. This does not imply that it will cost $5 billion to address a sea level rise of 5 feet. Quite simply, at certain sea levels, there are no feasible engineering solutions.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 02, 2017, 07:06:34 PM
One interesting aspect of this map is the large prominent gray area on the northwest edge of Norfolk. This is the naval base and the impact of sea level rise is blocked out. There is, however, a prominent area of pink situated in the center of the base which is actually part of the city but not part of the base. It is nearly all pink and one can conclude that most of the base in 2100 will be flooding daily at high tide.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on November 02, 2017, 09:24:14 PM
Would I be correct in assuming massive health concerns when sanitary systems are inundated at high tide? Large areas might become unlivable long before tide waters have topped the curbs.
I'm concerned about the state of the sewer system in Miami now.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/15/in-irmas-wake-millions-of-gallons-of-sewage-and-wastewater-are-bubbling-up-across-florida/?utm_term=.2cf2495882f2


Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 02, 2017, 09:36:43 PM
That was a scary article.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 05, 2017, 06:10:33 PM
Would I be correct in assuming massive health concerns when sanitary systems are inundated at high tide? Large areas might become unlivable long before tide waters have topped the curbs.
I'm concerned about the state of the sewer system in Miami now.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/15/in-irmas-wake-millions-of-gallons-of-sewage-and-wastewater-are-bubbling-up-across-florida/?utm_term=.2cf2495882f2


Terry

One thing mentioned in the article is that the waste water system is under negative pressure. This must mean the entire system is connected to pumps which essentially pull waste water through the system. This is in contrast to most waste water systems that are gravity fed and must be due to the fact that the entire area is so close to sea level. It seems the article is suggesting there is nothing to do with the collected waste water when flooding occurs but to release it into the sea.

In Chicago (I live here), the system is gravity fed and we used to have terrible flooding problems when it rained heavy. Periodically, they had to open the locks where the Chicago River meets Lake Michigan and dump waste water into the lake where we get our drinking water. In 1972, after an extensive study, a decision was made to build a deep tunnel that would carry storm water and waste water and store it in reservoirs where it can later be pumped out and treated. The tunnels, up to 33 feet in diameter, are over 300 feet below ground. Some of these reservoirs are unused limestone quarries like the picture below. The project has cost more than $3 billion and is not yet complete but flooding has already been virtually eliminated. The Chicago River, once an open sewer, now has over 50 species of fish thriving in it.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 06, 2017, 08:30:17 PM
New analysis from The Guardian, since it looks like 3°C (at least) is likely.

From Miami to Shanghai: 3C of warming will leave world cities below sea level
An elevated level of climate change would lock in irreversible sea-level rises affecting hundreds of millions of people, Guardian data analysis shows
Quote
Hundreds of millions of urban dwellers around the world face their cities being inundated by rising seawaters if latest UN warnings that the world is on course for 3C of global warming come true, according to a Guardian data analysis.

Famous beaches, commercial districts and swaths of farmland will be threatened at this elevated level of climate change, which the UN warned this week is a very real prospect unless nations reduce their carbon emissions.

Data from the Climate Central group of scientists analysed by Guardian journalists shows that 3C of global warming would ultimately lock in irreversible sea-level rises of perhaps two metres. Cities from Shanghai to Alexandria, and Rio to Osaka are among the worst affected. Miami would be inundated - as would the entire bottom third of the US state of Florida.

The Guardian has found, however, that local preparations for a 3C world are as patchy as international efforts to prevent it from happening. At six of the coastal regions most likely to be affected, government planners are only slowly coming to grips with the enormity of the task ahead - and in some cases have done nothing. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/03/miami-shanghai-3c-warming-cities-underwater

Includes a "Quick Guide: Why are we talking about a three-degree world?"
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2017, 09:02:51 PM
Delhi urged to declare emergency after third day of heavy pollution
Quote
New Delhi (CNN)The Delhi government is being urged to declare a city-wide health emergency, as residents endured a third straight day of heavy pollution.

Air quality readings in India's capital have soared since Tuesday, with one monitor showing levels in the city were 969 -- the World Health Organization considers anything above 25 to be unsafe. ...
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/08/health/delhi-pollution-health-emergency/index.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on November 09, 2017, 12:43:44 AM
New analysis from The Guardian, since it looks like 3°C (at least) is likely.

From Miami to Shanghai: 3C of warming will leave world cities below sea level
An elevated level of climate change would lock in irreversible sea-level rises affecting hundreds of millions of people, Guardian data analysis shows
Quote
Hundreds of millions of urban dwellers around the world face their cities being inundated by rising seawaters if latest UN warnings that the world is on course for 3C of global warming come true, according to a Guardian data analysis.

Famous beaches, commercial districts and swaths of farmland will be threatened at this elevated level of climate change, which the UN warned this week is a very real prospect unless nations reduce their carbon emissions.

Data from the Climate Central group of scientists analysed by Guardian journalists shows that 3C of global warming would ultimately lock in irreversible sea-level rises of perhaps two metres. Cities from Shanghai to Alexandria, and Rio to Osaka are among the worst affected. Miami would be inundated - as would the entire bottom third of the US state of Florida.

The Guardian has found, however, that local preparations for a 3C world are as patchy as international efforts to prevent it from happening. At six of the coastal regions most likely to be affected, government planners are only slowly coming to grips with the enormity of the task ahead - and in some cases have done nothing. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/03/miami-shanghai-3c-warming-cities-underwater

Includes a "Quick Guide: Why are we talking about a three-degree world?"

I wondered that same thing.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2017, 03:37:52 AM
Fire trucks to spray Indian capital amid deepening smog emergency
Quote
India plans to use fire trucks to spray water over parts of its capital to combat toxic smog and dust that has triggered a pollution emergency, with conditions expected to worsen over the weekend.

Illegal crop burning in farm states surrounding New Delhi, vehicle exhausts and swirling construction dust have contributed to what has become an annual crisis.

Authorities will use the fire trucks in areas with high concentrations of toxic dust, said Ritesh Kumar Singh, an environment ministry official, after a meeting of civil servants from the city government and four neighboring states. ...
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1DA0V3
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on November 14, 2017, 06:19:52 AM
That Delhi situation is getting to the point where even the powers that be must breathe the same shit as the peasants every time they go out of doors. I think the Supreme Court might step in more aggressively than they already have. After all, they got to live there too.

Sorta like China.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: A-Team on November 14, 2017, 05:34:53 PM
The Willamette Valley in Oregon had this very same problem as Delhi with field burning when I lived there. Some 160 golf course rye seed growers would get a slightly better return on investment according to a 40-year old study from the local ag college by torching the stubble, so never mind the health toll on the other 3,000,000 valley residents. It was called Freedom to Farm.

Rural interests were greatly favored then and now by legislator allocation which was historically property-owner based. Eventually they smoked out the freeway causing an epic multi-vehicle pileup and lost support. Very similar to household plastic trash smoldering in a backyard barrel which was also legal until very recently.

Punjab, at least they are growing food there. I have no idea whether it is just a traditional practice without a agronomic basis (soil nitrogen will largely volatilize and waft away, not stay as ready fertilizer), whether it is just slightly cheaper than discing, whether markets exist for stubble (they do), whether it is just stubborn regional flexing of political muscle, whether soil pests are actually reduced, or whether it would be far cheaper simply to accept reduced yield and import (more) wheat from the US.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on November 15, 2017, 03:14:56 PM
Let’s take a look at how tides work.

In Norfolk they have a semi-diurnal tide, that’s a tide that has roughly two tide cycles
every 24 hrs.  That’s two high’s and two lows, now for instance a four ft. tide swing does not add 4 ft of water to land maps, which are drawn to equal mean sea level. Nautical charts on the other hand are drawn to absolute low tide, so a four ft swing will add 4ft
feet of water on a nautical chart.

So, if you have a four ft tide in Virgina or NJ or wherever you add 2ft of water to a land
Map at high tide and subtract 2 ft of water at low tide on…. a land map.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tide#/media/File:Tide_terms.png

All of this, when one considers sea level rise…I think is irreverent.  Since I have been reading here at the ASIF max SLR by 2100 has gone up steadily as our understanding
of ice dynamics improves…..I fear this will continue, sometimes in a dramatic fashion.
 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 17, 2017, 02:16:34 AM
Thanks bligh8.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on November 20, 2017, 05:01:06 AM
I meant to say: your writing .... beautiful, even poetic at times. 
Fair Winds
Bligh
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Avalonian on November 25, 2017, 06:53:49 AM
Morocco is also struggling with the second consecutive significant drought year...
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42119365

Although the south is pretty arid (although we always seem to get torrential storms when I'm there!), most of the time the Atlas (used to) pick up enough rainfall to keep the agriculture happy. Rainfall is pretty unreliable, it must be said, but still - these droughts are clearing increasing in frequency and are now becoming almost an annual problem.

See this document for more on Morocco's climate and drought problems:
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/387707.%20Morocco.pdf
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 01, 2017, 10:44:56 PM
North Carolina, U.S.

In the Outer Banks, Officials and Property Owners Battle to Keep the Ocean at Bay
Nags Head’s struggle with beach erosion and litigious homeowners offers a preview of what’s to come as storms and rising seas hit communities from Maine to Texas.
Quote
Ever since a nor'easter slammed the Outer Banks in 2009, damaging hundreds of homes along these barrier islands, Goldner's cottage has been largely uninhabitable. The storm sucked the land out from beneath the homes. Now only two remain in a row that once numbered 10. Erosion has gradually consumed the shoreline in the tourist town of Nags Head, seizing homes and threatening nearly a billion dollars' worth of property.

Sea level rise from climate change is making matters worse. For homeowners caught in the middle, the damage has left some facing substantial financial losses.

"I just want to break even," said Goldner, a tall man with tousled gray hair and blue eyes.

After the nor'easter, the town declared Goldner's home and nine others on East Seagull Drive public nuisances and ordered their demolition. Two were torn down, but the owners of the other eight fought back. Their lawsuits dragged for years and led to a ruling that said towns did not have the right to clear homes from the beach. Nags Head eventually paid $1.5 million to buy out the owners of six, but it was unable to remove the final two homes.

Goldner, his neighbor and the town are now in a stalemate. The owners of the two remaining homes are unable to secure permits to rebury septic tanks that now poke through the sand. Town officials don't want to spend any more to buy them out. Neighbors are upset that the town spent millions of taxpayer dollars on lawsuits and settlements, yet failed to clear the beach.

If Goldner's house collapsed, he could at least collect insurance. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28112017/nags-head-north-carolina-beach-erosion-climate-change-sea-level-rise
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pikaia on December 03, 2017, 08:09:16 PM
"A cricket Test match between India and Sri Lanka was repeatedly interrupted on Sunday with claims players were “continuously vomiting” due to hazardous pollution levels in the Indian capital."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/03/pollution-stops-play-at-delhi-test-match-as-bowlers-struggle-to-breathe
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2017, 09:23:40 PM
Tough decisions will need to be made as to what to protect in the future.

'Buried in marshes': sea-level rise could destroy historic sites on US east coast
New research shows by the end of the century an increase in sea level will threaten the White House, early colonial settlements and other historic places
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/29/buried-in-marshes-sea-level-rise-could-destroy-historic-sites-on-us-east-coast
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on December 12, 2017, 02:27:23 PM
Good catch, sig. And these studies are assuming that catastrophic cliff failure, etc, in the Antarctic don't kick in in a big way this century, I presume.

So the coasts will be inundated, and much of the interior of North America will be desertifying.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ficons.wxug.com%2Fhurricane%2F2013%2Fdrought-western-us-1900-2100.png&hash=3bcbb727154ec654b7a79e32193e358e)

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on December 22, 2017, 10:13:54 AM
A long read from the NY Times about Jakarta, showing how climate change may be that which administers the final coup-de-grace to a city of 10 million (and 30 million in the greater Jakarta Metropolitan area) afflicted with so many other man-made problems.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/21/world/asia/jakarta-sinking-climate.html?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: pikaia on December 22, 2017, 10:47:33 AM

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ficons.wxug.com%2Fhurricane%2F2013%2Fdrought-western-us-1900-2100.png&hash=3bcbb727154ec654b7a79e32193e358e)

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png

I don't understand the scale on the left. What are the units?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 22, 2017, 12:09:27 PM

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ficons.wxug.com%2Fhurricane%2F2013%2Fdrought-western-us-1900-2100.png&hash=3bcbb727154ec654b7a79e32193e358e)

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png

wow. I'll go straightaway assuming that's for so called normal precipitation. Is this all because of the RRR? Abnormal precipitation could increase to fill in the gap? Umm. India and crumbling tarmac comes to mind.  :o ::) ???
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 22, 2017, 02:43:02 PM

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ficons.wxug.com%2Fhurricane%2F2013%2Fdrought-western-us-1900-2100.png&hash=3bcbb727154ec654b7a79e32193e358e)

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png

I don't understand the scale on the left. What are the units?

Standard Deviations?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: jai mitchell on December 22, 2017, 06:27:42 PM
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-12/teia-hmp122017.php

Quote
The study found that by the 2070s, high wet-bulb readings that now occur maybe only once a year could prevail 100 to 250 days of the year in some parts of the tropics. In the southeast United States, wet-bulb temperatures now sometimes reach an already oppressive 29 or 30 degrees Celsius; by the 2070s or 2080s, such weather could occur 25 to 40 days each year, say the researchers.

On our current course, within 40-60 years hundreds of millions of people may be exposed to a combined effect of temperatures + humidity that breach "the limit of human tolerance to heat"—a condition exceedingly rare today.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ghoti on December 23, 2017, 01:27:52 AM
The northern towns often rely on winter to make winter roads. With warmer winters more places are finding they have to help winter to get the roads usable. Dawson Creek needs the Yukon River to freeze and it is very late happening. They are working on ways to aid the freeze up.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/dawson-city-ice-bridge-yukon-build-1.4461544 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/dawson-city-ice-bridge-yukon-build-1.4461544)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 23, 2017, 07:08:01 AM

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ficons.wxug.com%2Fhurricane%2F2013%2Fdrought-western-us-1900-2100.png&hash=3bcbb727154ec654b7a79e32193e358e)

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png

I don't understand the scale on the left. What are the units?

Standard Deviations?
Yeah, if that's the case this model result clearly states times of stability are over. This of course assuming they've used normal distribution function as their baseline to compare the model results. Like, assume no change, and also plot the results as there was no change. The resulting plot would show the trend as the machine sees it. That plot would show a downward trend wrt precipitation for western US almost all the on-going century. So the result would indeed be desertification style Karakum or Taklimakan where the mountains prevent the rains most of the year and any snow will evaporate straight up once spring starts. No doubt Rockies and Cascades still get some water, but nowhere near the amounts that they had this year. If we choose to believe these models, that is (no need to convince the deniers living in these areas.)

Waiting for the near-future mixed western-scifi movie where cowboys have become camel herders and tribal denier caravans fight each other with laser pistols over a non-salted oasis in Kansas. The name of the flick could be f.e. Mad Max 11? (If you want to cast realism aside, add an outside threat of Mexican llama-herders invading the area with force-fields and light sabers (yes, went to watch Star Wars VIII))
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2018, 03:24:30 AM
50°C = 122°F

”populations could swelter in 50-degree weather even if the 2-degree global warming limit agreed in the 2015 Paris accord were achieved”

'Really awful': 50-degree days possible for Sydney, Melbourne, as warming worsens
https://amp.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/really-awful-50degree-days-possible-for-sydney-melbourne-as-warming-worsens-20171002-gyt512.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on January 09, 2018, 12:47:16 AM
Rivers in the USA becoming more saline:

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1711234115

"The freshwater salinization syndrome can increase risks to the safety of drinking water and infrastructure. Elevated salt levels in drinking water can contribute to hypertension in people on sodium-restricted diets and is of concern to people requiring kidney dialysis (9). Salinization and alkalinization influence the corrosivity of water, and this can affect leaching of metals from pipes carrying drinking water (9, 68). Salinization increases corrosion of transportation infrastructure with United States economic costs estimated in the billions of dollars (69). Given increasing impacts on ecosystems and human welfare, increased salinization and alkalinization of fresh water is now a pervasive water quality issue, which may require aggressive management in both arid and humid climates across latitudes."

Open access. Read all about it.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on January 16, 2018, 12:04:53 AM
A consequence of places becoming less livable is that people from those newly unlivable places necessarily either die or become refugees:


Study finds that global warming exacerbates refugee crises

Higher temperatures increase the number of people seeking asylum in the EU


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/15/study-finds-that-global-warming-exacerbates-refugee-crises
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 20, 2018, 03:35:55 PM
Maybe a bit off-topic, but I think this should be seen in the “Consequences” section.
(Cross-posted in “What’s New in the Artic?” thread.)

The climate, Russia, energy….

“How a Melting Arctic Changes Everything”

Part 1, The Bare Arctic:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/

Part 2, The Political Arctic:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-political-arctic/

Part 3, The Economic Arctic:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-economic-arctic/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 20, 2018, 04:27:30 PM
U.S.:  “An official with the Environmental Protection Agency program that directs cleaning up the nation’s most contaminated properties and waterways told Congress on Thursday that the government needs to plan for the ongoing threat posed by climate change.”

But EPA chief Pruitt has appointed a political supporter with no experience in pollution cleanups to head a group ordered to expedite the cleanup.

“The task force had no agenda for its meetings, kept no minutes and used no reference materials. And, according to EPA, the task force also created no work product other than its final report.”

http://m.digitaljournal.com/news/politics/epa-government-must-prepare-superfund-sites-for-climate-change/article/512581
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on January 26, 2018, 06:28:51 PM
If Cape Town is the first globalist paradise that will run out of water. Than Jakarta is probably the first globalist paradise that will sink in the sea. The city is sinking 5 to 20 cm every year. Flood canals and rivers are now sinking below sea level.

https://www.justreadonline.com/2017/12/23/jakarta-is-sinking-so-fast/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tony Mcleod on January 27, 2018, 02:37:02 AM
If Cape Town is the first globalist paradise that will run out of water. Than Jakarta is probably the first globalist paradise that will sink in the sea. The city is sinking 5 to 20 cm every year. Flood canals and rivers are now sinking below sea level.

https://www.justreadonline.com/2017/12/23/jakarta-is-sinking-so-fast/

"As environmentalists have pointed out, if the city doesn’t first clean up its rivers and canals, a dike will turn an enclosed Jakarta Bay into the world’s largest cesspool."

Eww!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 27, 2018, 03:32:04 PM
If Cape Town is the first globalist paradise that will run out of water. Than Jakarta is probably the first globalist paradise that will sink in the sea. The city is sinking 5 to 20 cm every year. Flood canals and rivers are now sinking below sea level.

https://www.justreadonline.com/2017/12/23/jakarta-is-sinking-so-fast/

"As environmentalists have pointed out, if the city doesn’t first clean up its rivers and canals, a dike will turn an enclosed Jakarta Bay into the world’s largest cesspool."

Eww!

Jakarta certainly appears a mess but the single biggest, near term impact of sea level rise on coastal cities across the planet is the impact on human waste and the systems that remove it from highly concentrated urban populations. In the United States, cholera epidemics were routine occurrences in the 1800's. The wealthy in New York, fled the city to summer homes to escape these deadly annual events. The response was to construct magnificent systems to carry waste away and prevent it from contaminating our sources of drinking water.

Waste systems (sewers) are predominately gravity fed, relying on the natural flow of water. The best systems, separate flood water from waste water to the extent that they can and, in some sections of the modern system, pumping is required to counteract gravity.

Even the most modern waste water systems can be overwhelmed by flooding. At current sea levels, heavy rain events routinely cause human waste, untreated sewer water, to spill across streets and open areas in Miami. One recent heavy rain forced officials to release a huge amount of untreated sewer water into the sea to prevent a deluge of human waste across the city. Rapid response crews in the region race around to contain and clean up these areas. Imagine a sea level 1 meter higher than today?

Water drinking bans and deadly cholera epidemics are going to become the new normal in our coastal cities. I wonder how often these events need to occur before people begin to decide they don't want to live in Miami?

Periodic "Poop Events" would dissuade me from moving there.

By the way, "Periodic Poop Events" would be a great name for a punk rock band.  :)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 27, 2018, 03:37:53 PM
And the cost to harden waste water systems, protecting them from rising sea levels and 10,000 year rain events, will eventually overwhelm our efforts.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 27, 2018, 04:49:06 PM
Quote
"Periodic Poop Events" would be a great name for a punk rock band.
What's your instrument?
On a related topic, did any of the musicians on the Titanic survive?  (Internet search says, "no".)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2018, 05:15:43 PM
All this talk of flooding and sinking cities got me thinking about Bill Weir’s ‘Wonder List’ program on Venice I saw not long ago. Here’s an excerpt:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?list=PL6XRrncXkMaXUslfXVzn1YbP5OcjZOo8Y&v=x_QXZCu0QCM


And this video I found in my searches today has a fascinating look at how Venice’s continually-renewed construction has survived the centuries of water intrusion — so far.
“How Does Venice Work?” Is A Backstage Look At Italy’s Sinking City (VIDEO)
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/11/how-does-venice-work-is-a_n_895025.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Paddy on January 27, 2018, 05:41:22 PM
It may not have anything like the problems Jakarta has, but I'm currently moving out of London and not planning to move into a coastal city any time soon. Get out early if you can.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2018, 08:04:16 PM
It may not have anything like the problems Jakarta has, but I'm currently moving out of London and not planning to move into a coastal city any time soon. Get out early if you can.

Paddy,
Have you experienced climate change problems there, or are you just being proactive?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on January 27, 2018, 08:54:22 PM
It may not have anything like the problems Jakarta has, but I'm currently moving out of London and not planning to move into a coastal city any time soon. Get out early if you can.

Paddy,
Have you experienced climate change problems there, or are you just being proactive?
London has the Thames Barrage, closed at times of risk of flood. This happens most often when high tide coincides with low pressure in the North Sea. Southern England is sinking, making sea level rise worse. Frequency of closures is gradually increasing, but less so in recent years (less deep lows in the North Sea).  The Barrage will have to be replaced well before mid-century.

London and the South East are also always at risk of water shortages - guess where population and economic growth are concentrated.

Ho hum.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on January 27, 2018, 09:16:58 PM
http://plantworksystems.com/can-we-solve-londons-water-shortage-by-2025/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on January 28, 2018, 07:16:38 AM
All these so called technological advantages just triggered rapid population growth. Soon they don't even need a drought to be in trouble.

https://themediaexpress.com/2017/04/15/how-serious-is-water-crisis-in-iran/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sebastian Jones on January 28, 2018, 08:20:07 PM
All these so called technological advantages just triggered rapid population growth. Soon they don't even need a drought to be in trouble.

https://themediaexpress.com/2017/04/15/how-serious-is-water-crisis-in-iran/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on January 30, 2018, 08:20:32 AM
We need more growth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-29/duterte-to-build-a-1-billion-new-city-for-thousands-of-workers
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 27, 2018, 01:08:21 AM
U.S.

If people walked around in air-conditioned spacesuits when the temperature soared to 130 degrees or higher in Arizona, they would have no trouble. "But who wants to live that way? And who can afford it?"

Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration
Extreme weather due to climate change displaced more than a million people from their homes last year. It could soon reshape the nation
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 27, 2018, 04:57:41 PM
Places becoming “less livable” due to climate-change-induced economics....

“NEW REPORT: Thanks to climate change, in low snow years, local US mountain economies lost over $1 billion and 17,400 jobs. Read more @protectwinters....”
https://twitter.com/ClimateNexus/status/968279543051177984
Image and link below.

Quote
The winter sports economy is important for the vitality of U.S. mountain communities. This report shows the urgency for the US to deploy solutions to reduce emissions and presents a roadmap for the winter sports industry to take a leading role in advocating for solutions.
https://protectourwinters.org/2018-economic-report/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on February 27, 2018, 06:08:43 PM
U.S.

If people walked around in air-conditioned spacesuits when the temperature soared to 130 degrees or higher in Arizona, they would have no trouble. "But who wants to live that way? And who can afford it?"

Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration
Extreme weather due to climate change displaced more than a million people from their homes last year. It could soon reshape the nation
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974

Not overly impressed with this article.  They claim that by 2080, 29 states will be winners in the "great climate migrate," while 12 states will be losers.  The rest will see little change.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 28, 2018, 12:02:40 AM
U.S.

If people walked around in air-conditioned spacesuits when the temperature soared to 130 degrees or higher in Arizona, they would have no trouble. "But who wants to live that way? And who can afford it?"

Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration
Extreme weather due to climate change displaced more than a million people from their homes last year. It could soon reshape the nation
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974

Not overly impressed with this article.  They claim that by 2080, 29 states will be winners in the "great climate migrate," while 12 states will be losers.  The rest will see little change.

Sure, a quarter of the country suffers devastating economic impacts from climate change forcing millions of refugees to flee to other areas of the country.

Why worry?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 28, 2018, 12:48:32 AM
In the gun-happy U.S.of A., what could possibly go wrong?  :-X
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on March 01, 2018, 01:20:07 AM
More extreme temperatures, more floodings, more extreme rainfall, more and longer droughts......

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0004273964
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on March 01, 2018, 01:21:25 AM
More extreme temperatures, more floodings, more extreme rainfall, more and longer droughts......

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0004273964


http://myanmarccalliance.org/en/climate-change-basics/impact-of-climate-change-and-the-case-of-myanmar/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on March 01, 2018, 08:13:24 PM
Climate refugees or just high cost of living. Or probably both.

https://www.westernjournal.com/san-francisco-diseased-streets-compared-worst-slums-world/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=PostTopSharingButtons&utm_content=2018-02-26&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: numerobis on March 02, 2018, 03:04:36 PM
Nice article in the Guardian about impacts on an Inupiaq community:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/02/alaska-climate-change-indigenous-hunting

Including note of their recent ice break-up.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on March 03, 2018, 10:31:44 PM
This is pretty disgusting

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5420665/Manta-ray-battles-rubbish-Indonesian-ocean.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on March 04, 2018, 09:05:37 PM
The result of cheap mass tourism. Mountains of trash, all seaweed and coral died from sewage from the hotels.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0nvwkpqPvoM
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 18, 2018, 02:47:51 PM
Half of New York City is now designated a hurricane evacuation zone.
https://twitter.com/cityatlas/status/974794493806424069

...The history of the city is partly to blame; much of the expansion was into former wetlands, or landfill dumped into the harbor & then built on. Perimeter of Lower Manhattan was thus made wider than the natural island.

... the stat is 147 square miles, which is approximately half of NYC's land area. Here's is the Office of Emergency Management map; the colored areas are the evac zones. http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

https://twitter.com/cityatlas/status/974837481014267904
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2018, 02:36:39 PM
"I had 90 metres between me and the sea when I first came here only two years ago, and now I've only got nine feet.”

Norfolk, U.K.
Hemsby cliff-top homes 'perilously close' to edge
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-norfolk-43442176
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on March 19, 2018, 09:43:21 PM
Quote
"I had 90 metres between me and the sea when I first came here only two years ago, and now I've only got nine feet.”

What's a few millimeters anyway.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2018, 10:12:33 AM
“We know that humans have most flourished during time of warming trends. I think there are assumptions made that because the climate is warming, that that necessarily is a bad thing." Scott Pruitt February 2018

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/20/phoenix-least-sustainable-city-survive-water

Plight of Phoenix: how long can the world’s 'least sustainable' city survive?

Quote
Phoenix and its surrounding area is known as the Valley of the Sun, and downtown Phoenix – which in 2017 overtook Philadelphia as America’s fifth-largest city – is easily walkable, with restaurants, bars and an evening buzz. But it is a modern shrine to towering concrete, and gives way to endless sprawl that stretches up to 35 miles away to places like Anthem. The area is still growing – and is dangerously overstretched, experts warn.

“There are plans for substantial further growth and there just isn’t the water to support that,” says climate researcher Jonathan Overpeck, who co-authored a 2017 report that linked declining flows in the Colorado river to climate change. “The Phoenix metro area is on the cusp of being dangerously overextended. It’s the urban bullseye for global warming in North America.”

One of those plans is Bill Gates’s new “smart city”. The Microsoft founder recently invested $80m (£57m) in a development firm that aims to construct 80,000 new homes on undeveloped land west of Phoenix, and a new freeway all the way to Las Vegas.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on March 20, 2018, 01:57:37 PM
Ah, the travails of building a metropolis in the desert.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 20, 2018, 08:34:55 PM

One of those plans is Bill Gates’s new “smart city”. The Microsoft founder recently invested $80m (£57m) in a development firm that aims to construct 80,000 new homes on undeveloped land west of Phoenix, and a new freeway all the way to Las Vegas.

I don't think smart means what Bill Gates thinks it means.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on March 21, 2018, 02:08:49 AM

One of those plans is Bill Gates’s new “smart city”. The Microsoft founder recently invested $80m (£57m) in a development firm that aims to construct 80,000 new homes on undeveloped land west of Phoenix, and a new freeway all the way to Las Vegas.

I don't think smart means what Bill Gates thinks it means.
Ramen!
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 26, 2018, 07:12:14 PM
Australia

Quote
DARWIN is going to get hotter and people will die as a result, a group of Australian climate scientists have warned.

Scientists from the Australia Institute yesterday delivered to the NT Government a report which showed the number of Darwin days with a maximum temperature of 35C or above will reach 132 by 2030 “without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions”.  The number of 35C days has already increased fourfold from 5.6 days per year early last century to 22 days per year since 2012, according to their report.

Liz Hanna from the Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at Australian National University said lives would be lost should the CSIRO modelling prove accurate.  “It’s almost tantamount to suicide for a nation to keep making this situation worse by considering increasing the carbon dioxide we’re going to put in the atmosphere,” she said.  The effect on warm parts of the globe such as North Australia would be “devastating”, she said.  “This puts a real challenge on how people function. Can we work in a world as we know now in terms of going out shopping, working, picking up the children without putting lives at serious risk?”

TAI principal adviser Mark Ogge warned the Territory Government against opening up the NT for fracking.  “It’s a crazy idea to be opening up a massive amount of new carbon in shale gas in the NT,” he said.  “We think it would be really irresponsible to do that when the NT itself and the rest of the world is facing these incredible challenges with global warming.”  Mr Ogge said industries including tourism, construction, and agriculture would likely suffer in a warmer NT.

Former CSIRO atmospheric research chief Graeme Pearman said while Australia might be a small contributor to emissions globally, we should still play our part to reduce emissions. Prof Pearman said global warming would “absolutely” lead to more cyclones in the Top End, due to increased moisture in the atmosphere.  Storms would become more intense, he said.

Chief Minister Michael Gunner said Australia and the NT needed to “do our bit”.

The NT Government is expected to make a decision as to whether to lift its fracking moratorium early next month.
https://twitter.com/climatecouncil/status/978179898413125632
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 01, 2018, 06:30:24 PM
In Alaska, a town threatened by climate change gets federal funding to relocate
The village of Newtok has been trying relocate to safer ground for decades.
Quote
Mar 23, 2018, 2:45 pm

The small coastal village of Newtok, Alaska has secured more than $15 million in funding to begin relocating households to safer ground inland. The funding is part of the $1.3 trillion spending bill signed Friday.

This amount, however, is still just a fraction of what’s required to relocate the whole village.

Located along the banks of the Ninglick River, the land on which the community of roughly 350 people lives has been eroding away since the late 1950s. They have been trying to relocate since 1994 but securing funding has remained elusive and the effects of climate change — sea level rise, stronger storms, and melting permafrost — have made the situation increasingly urgent. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/newtok-alaska-gets-relocation-funding-35b4434242a6/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2018, 01:54:03 PM
Senagal

With damage now unavoidable, Senegal's government and the World Bank are mobilising to resettle nearly 10,000 people from the city's riskiest zone.

Senegal city races to move families as sea swallows homes
http://news.trust.org/item/20180403060036-3gh8d/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 16, 2018, 05:07:28 PM
I’ll just put this here, for contemplative purposes....

Quote
Asteroid 2018 GE3 flew past us today, half the distance to the Moon. Around 50-100 m in diameter, it was several times the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, around the size of the 1908 Tunguska event ~ easily enough to destroy a city. We had less than a day's warning. (Michael Jäger)
https://twitter.com/marsrader/status/985711894060134406

Video at the link.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on April 16, 2018, 08:20:02 PM
We had less than a day's warning. (Michael Jäger)

Well, why didn't ya tell us earlier, Mr Jäger!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 17, 2018, 02:27:30 AM
We had less than a day's warning. (Michael Jäger)

Well, why didn't ya tell us earlier, Mr Jäger!

Damn those asteroid deniers!  They won’t take any action until they are 100% sure it will hit, and be bad.

;)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 17, 2018, 08:41:35 PM
I always found the disaster movies where we send up rockets to blow up approaching asteroids laughable. We could shoot a more accurate movie but it would be pretty boring.

Scene 1: Announce to the world we're going to all be killed by an asteroid in less than 24 hours.
Scene 2: Everyone running around hysterically.
Scene 3: We all die.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Hefaistos on April 17, 2018, 09:36:57 PM
I always found the disaster movies where we send up rockets to blow up approaching asteroids laughable. We could shoot a more accurate movie but it would be pretty boring.

Scene 1: Announce to the world we're going to all be killed by an asteroid in less than 24 hours.
Scene 2: Everyone running around hysterically.
Scene 3: We all die.

Oh, come on, we've still got Bruce Willis and his team for those things, haven't we.

https://www.space.com/17153-asteroid-impact-bruce-willis-armageddon.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on April 17, 2018, 09:53:09 PM
I always found the disaster movies where we send up rockets to blow up approaching asteroids laughable. We could shoot a more accurate movie but it would be pretty boring.

Scene 1: Announce to the world we're going to all be killed by an asteroid in less than 24 hours.
Scene 2: Everyone running around hysterically.
Scene 3: We all die.
They made that movie. Don't recall the name but it took place in Toronto and starred Sandra Oh.
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on April 17, 2018, 11:01:33 PM
The thread is called "places becoming less livable". It is interesting that we all interpret that as less livable for us, i.e. humanity.

Of course we are making a vast proportion of the biosphere less liveable for - life  - in all its forms. I can live quite comfortably in my little bit of Middle England. It seems that for most insects, increasingly birds, and all sorts of other wildlife my little bit of Middle England is getting very much unliveable.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 17, 2018, 11:12:19 PM
The thread is called "places becoming less livable". It is interesting that we all interpret that as less livable for us, i.e. humanity.

Of course we are making a vast proportion of the biosphere less liveable for - life  - in all its forms. I can live quite comfortably in my little bit of Middle England. It seems that for most insects, increasingly birds, and all sorts of other wildlife my little bit of Middle England is getting very much unliveable.

Science has allowed for humans to essentially separate ourselves and our ability to thrive from the environment in which we inhabit. A simple example would be the use of air conditioning, allowing us to live in areas where temps would make it difficult or impossible. A more complex one and far more pervasive is the harnessing of fossil fuels to raise dramatically the carrying capacity of the biosphere. We are able to access deep aquifers through mechanized pumping and increase crop yields through the application of fossil fuel based fertilizers, pesticides and mechanization. We than use more fossil fuels to transport these surplus agricultural products across the planet to feed people in areas where local crop production would not support the local population. As we are doing this, we are making that same environment more hostile for other living things. This is not sustainable.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Coffee Drinker on April 18, 2018, 03:19:41 AM
I always found the disaster movies where we send up rockets to blow up approaching asteroids laughable. We could shoot a more accurate movie but it would be pretty boring.

Scene 1: Announce to the world we're going to all be killed by an asteroid in less than 24 hours.
Scene 2: Everyone running around hysterically.
Scene 3: We all die.

Don't think that would be a boring movie at all. Would provide some fresh air to the genre.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Coffee Drinker on April 18, 2018, 03:21:02 AM
We had less than a day's warning. (Michael Jäger)

Well, why didn't ya tell us earlier, Mr Jäger!

Damn those asteroid deniers!  They won’t take any action until they are 100% sure it will hit, and be bad.

;)

LOL  ;D
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 21, 2018, 09:55:29 PM
"Our professional opinion is that the outcome is uncertain, and it is in your hands," he said, to audible gasps from the audience.

Miami Beach's future is 'uncertain,' experts say, but sea rise pumps are a good start
Quote
Miami Beach's $500 million attempt to elevate and pump itself out of sea level rise's path has drawn criticism, but an expert panel concluded Thursday that the city's doing what it needs to survive.

The question of Miami Beach's future, whether the community stands a chance in the face of rising seas, was an unspoken theme in every interview the panel held this week, said Mark Osler, a national practice leader in Coastal Science and Engineering with Michael Baker International.

"Our professional opinion is that the outcome is uncertain, and it is in your hands," he said, to audible gasps from the audience. Osler said the panel believes the city has a future if the public and the government work together on solutions and don't let up on the push to enact them. ...
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article209328849.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 23, 2018, 12:25:02 AM
U.S.

As seas rise, South Carolina legislators move to derail tighter limits on coastal development
https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2018/04/19/seas-rise-sc-legislators-move-derail-tighter-limits-coastal-development/531442002/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on April 23, 2018, 05:42:36 AM
They gonna look at the South Carolina legislation again in 2024. I guess they feel lucky, plan on riding out the next six years without a hurricane ...

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sleepy on April 23, 2018, 08:18:37 AM
I wish them the best of luck. Also remembering early forecasts from both ECMWF and GFS last year, that had Irma making landfall in Myrtle Beach. Saved this image then.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on April 23, 2018, 05:04:59 PM
"Our professional opinion is that the outcome is uncertain, and it is in your hands," he said, to audible gasps from the audience.

Miami Beach's future is 'uncertain,' experts say, but sea rise pumps are a good start
Quote
Miami Beach's $500 million attempt to elevate and pump itself out of sea level rise's path has drawn criticism, but an expert panel concluded Thursday that the city's doing what it needs to survive.

The question of Miami Beach's future, whether the community stands a chance in the face of rising seas, was an unspoken theme in every interview the panel held this week, said Mark Osler, a national practice leader in Coastal Science and Engineering with Michael Baker International.

"Our professional opinion is that the outcome is uncertain, and it is in your hands," he said, to audible gasps from the audience. Osler said the panel believes the city has a future if the public and the government work together on solutions and don't let up on the push to enact them. ...
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article209328849.html

The future's uncertain, and the end is always near. - Jim Morrison
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 23, 2018, 08:51:10 PM
Prices of homes on lower ground are rising at a slower pace than those at higher elevations, and properties closer to the ocean are trading at 7 percent discount compared to similar homes that are more inland.

Miami home prices are feeling the impact of sea level rise, new research suggests
https://therealdeal.com/miami/2018/04/20/miami-home-prices-are-feeling-the-impact-of-sea-level-rise-new-research-suggests/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 23, 2018, 11:19:32 PM
Prices of homes on lower ground are rising at a slower pace than those at higher elevations, and properties closer to the ocean are trading at 7 percent discount compared to similar homes that are more inland.

Miami home prices are feeling the impact of sea level rise, new research suggests
https://therealdeal.com/miami/2018/04/20/miami-home-prices-are-feeling-the-impact-of-sea-level-rise-new-research-suggests/

If they hold true to form, the Florida Legislature will pass laws prohibiting home buyers from discounting their offer to a home seller just because they believe in AGW.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Coffee Drinker on April 24, 2018, 01:45:24 AM
Does Miami have flood maps? In Australia those flood maps have quite an impact on houses prices already.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sleepy on April 24, 2018, 11:35:06 AM
Nice to see some action taken.
The County Administrative Board in Skåne stops Kristianstad municipality's plans to allow larger houses at the Helge ridge outlet in the sea south of Yngsjö.
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=101&artikel=6936767 (https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=101&artikel=6936767)
Use translate for the rest if you wish.

Kristianstad also has the lowest ground level in Sweden, former seabed:
http://www.vattenriket.kristianstad.se/plats/lagsta_punkten.php (http://www.vattenriket.kristianstad.se/plats/lagsta_punkten.php)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2018, 01:42:24 PM
Does Miami have flood maps? In Australia those flood maps have quite an impact on houses prices already.

FEMA does them and so do private providers:-
https://www.mapwise.com/maps/florida/hazards.php

URL of the demo vide0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37o5rN-tgFM&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2018, 02:07:19 PM
Does Miami have flood maps? In Australia those flood maps have quite an impact on houses prices already.

FEMA does them and so do private providers:-
https://www.mapwise.com/maps/florida/hazards.php

URL of the demo vide0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37o5rN-tgFM&feature=youtu.be

The private providers want your money!

FEMA - https://www.fema.gov/flood-mapping-products

"This page provides an overview of the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (MSC), points to some of FEMA’s flood mapping products, and provides a link to the full list of mapping products. The information on this page is intended for members of the general public and anyone looking to obtain FEMA flood hazard mapping products or information. For additional information on flood risk, visit the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) page on FEMA.gov/national-flood-insurance-program.

To find your community's flood map and other products, visit the MSC."

BUT:- When I click on the MSC link what do I get

Quote
This site can’t be reached
msc.fema.gov took too long to respond.
Try:

Checking the connection
Checking the proxy and the firewall
Running Windows Network Diagnostics
ERR_CONNECTION_TIMED_OUT

Best of luck - I give up.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 24, 2018, 05:09:17 PM
Quote
...properties closer to the ocean are trading at 7 percent discount compared to similar homes that are more inland.

This is what shocked me.  It seems a basic tenet of the real estate market is undergoing radical change.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on April 24, 2018, 06:58:55 PM
Quote
...properties closer to the ocean are trading at 7 percent discount compared to similar homes that are more inland.

This is what shocked me.  It seems a basic tenet of the real estate market is undergoing radical change.

Not shocking at all.  Basic tenet of supply and demand.  Those homes in higher demand will command a higher price.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: dnem on April 24, 2018, 08:32:41 PM
C'mon Daniel. It's not shocking that price is responding to reduced demand.  What is a "sea change" is that demand for coastal real state - which is in essentially fixed supply - is falling due to an increased in perceived risk. 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on April 24, 2018, 10:17:26 PM
C'mon Daniel. It's not shocking that price is responding to reduced demand.  What is a "sea change" is that demand for coastal real state - which is in essentially fixed supply - is falling due to an increased in perceived risk.

The article also mentioned the high cost of flood insurance.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on April 24, 2018, 10:18:33 PM
Thats what's so funny. The market DGAF about climate change denial. If flooding happens more often, housing prices will drop period. Sure, typically dishonest climate change deniers might deceive  a few unaware saps into buying where they shouldn't,  but the market will prevail regardless of how deep deniers bury their heads.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on April 25, 2018, 03:22:46 AM
Crossposted to Sea Level Rise thread.

In Maryland Sea Level Rise Is Happening Now

https://youtu.be/paf2pJtaXYE
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2018, 01:39:27 PM
A place that has become unliveable - for once not due to man's activities.

Ambae, one of the islands of the Vanuatu archipelago, has a volcano- Monaro- that has always been active but is now destroying the habitat.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/25/vanuatu-landslide-and-flash-flood-hampers-relief-effort-on-ambae
Quote
A landslide and flash flood on the Vanuatu island of Ambae is complicating evacuation efforts, with as many as 800 people now sheltering in emergency relief centres.

Ambae Island is home to 11,000 people, and for the second time in six months Manaro volcano on top of Mount Lombenben has started rumbling, spewing torrents of ash, gas and rocks from its crater. The debris is causing breathing and health problems, and threatening livelihoods by burying vegetable plots and crops.

The government has declared a three-month state of emergency while it works with non-governmental organisations to safely evacuate the island and secure new homes for displaced islanders who may never be able to return.

Acting prime minister Jean Pierre Nirua said Vanuatu was the most vulnerable country in the world to natural disasters, and was currently stretched by responding to the clean-up of last month’s cyclone Hola and the unfolding Ambae emergency.

According to the Vanuatu meteorology and geohazards department the volcano remains at level three, with a danger zone surrounding the cone of three kilometres.

Due to eruption activity the cone of the volcano had widened, resulting in ash fall, gas, and acid rain, as well as a heightened risk of landslides and flash floods.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2018, 05:53:46 PM
A place that has become unliveable - for once not due to man's activities.

Ambae, one of the islands of the Vanuatu archipelago, has a volcano- Monaro- that has always been active but is now destroying the habitat.
...

See also:  Volcanoes thread:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2164.msg150170.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2018, 05:59:05 PM
Joe Romm on the property value studies.

The trillion-dollar coastal property bubble is ready to burst, per new study
Rising seas hit U.S. coastal property values: "A pricing signal from climate change."
Quote
A second, broader study, “Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise,” found that “Homes exposed to sea level” are being priced 7 percent lower than homes that are the same distance from the beach, but that are less exposed to flooding.

The study, which used Zillow data from around the country, concluded that the pricing gap between riskier homes and safer homes was being driven by the “more sophisticated investors.” For that group, the gap is about “11 percent and has increased over time, coinciding with the release of new scientific evidence on the extent and timing of ocean encroachment.”

The trillion-dollar coastal property bubble is ready to burst
The economic risks from rising seas are enormous — but the Trump administration’s policies all but guarantee a worst-case scenario plays out.

A 2014 Reuters analysis of this “slow-motion disaster” calculated there’s almost $1.25 trillion in coastal property whose value is being propped up by the National Flood Insurance Program’s below-market rates.

“The risk will rise as sea levels rise, and when that happens, you’d expect your property value to fall,” as Lloyd Dixon, the director of the RAND Center for Catastrophic Risk Management and Compensation, explained in October. “At some point, the property becomes worthless.” ...
https://thinkprogress.org/rising-seas-hit-u-s-coastal-property-values-a-pricing-signal-from-climate-change-848bf4e7443b/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on April 25, 2018, 07:55:38 PM
This is not a bubble that is ready to burst.  Rather it will have its air let out slowly over time.  The seas will not rise overnight to swallow all the property.  Areas will decline as they are affected, and will be spread out over decades.  As the article state, this is "slow-motion."
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: dnem on April 26, 2018, 01:26:46 PM
You can't possibly know that.  The interplay of buyer psychology, insurance and lending can play out in very nonlinear and emergent ways. See 2008/2009.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on April 26, 2018, 01:55:01 PM
No more than others could possibly know.  The 2008/09 housing burst was inflamed by the financial credit crunch, which reigned in loose credit over the previous decade.  The issue here is seas rising slowly over the coming decades.  Unless demand for ocean front property completely tanks, which would take a huge change in buyer mindsets, the odds of a bubble burst are slim.  These properties are still desirable, meaning someone will snatch them up, before the price can fall to far.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on April 26, 2018, 02:09:47 PM
There would be no bubble if climate science was taken into account when planning and risks were divulged to buyers. However, because of cowardly climate change deniers, unscrupulous real state people and civil servants who failed on their duties to the people, bubble are created where SLR is ignored until it is too late. Bubbles burst.

But as you can see, the people that are causing the bubbles by deceiving others about the risk  of climate change also forego any responsibility for creating the bubbles. No surprise there.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2018, 11:50:40 PM
Houston, Texas

”The Memorial Day 2015, Tax Day 2016 and Harvey floods all reached or exceeded the 500-year standard, which refers to a storm that has a 0.2 percent chance of happening in any given year.”

Houston City Council unanimously backs plan to build homes in flood plain
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/City-Council-unanimously-backs-plan-to-build-12863712.php
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 27, 2018, 05:51:51 AM
Houston, Texas

”The Memorial Day 2015, Tax Day 2016 and Harvey floods all reached or exceeded the 500-year standard, which refers to a storm that has a 0.2 percent chance of happening in any given year.”

Houston City Council unanimously backs plan to build homes in flood plain
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/City-Council-unanimously-backs-plan-to-build-12863712.php

You can't fix stupid.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: magnamentis on April 28, 2018, 01:29:30 AM
Houston, Texas

”The Memorial Day 2015, Tax Day 2016 and Harvey floods all reached or exceeded the 500-year standard, which refers to a storm that has a 0.2 percent chance of happening in any given year.”

Houston City Council unanimously backs plan to build homes in flood plain
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/City-Council-unanimously-backs-plan-to-build-12863712.php

and even less greed which is almost a synonym for stupidity.


You can't fix stupid.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sebastian Jones on April 28, 2018, 03:58:31 PM
Houston, Texas

”The Memorial Day 2015, Tax Day 2016 and Harvey floods all reached or exceeded the 500-year standard, which refers to a storm that has a 0.2 percent chance of happening in any given year.”

Houston City Council unanimously backs plan to build homes in flood plain
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/City-Council-unanimously-backs-plan-to-build-12863712.php

and even less greed which is almost a synonym for stupidity.


You can't fix stupid.

Well, they probably figured that if they had experienced a one-in-500 year flood 3 years running, they are now safe for 1500 years...
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 28, 2018, 04:51:50 PM


Well, they probably figured that if they had experienced a one-in-500 year flood 3 years running, they are now safe for 1500 years...
:)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: DrTskoul on May 05, 2018, 02:21:48 PM
A Pakistani City Hit 122.4 Degrees In April, Probably Setting A World Record (https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5aec96e5e4b041fd2d267113)

Quote
... But weather extremes expert Christopher Burt says it’s likely the hottest record ever set on earth, an assessment the U.N. agency said it has no reason to doubt
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 10, 2018, 01:20:59 AM
Three newspapers confront one challenge: Sea-level rise is real, South Florida needs all hands on deck — now
Quote
...the editorial boards of the Miami Herald, South Florida Sun Sentinel and Palm Beach Post — with reporting help from WLRN Public Media — are joining hands in an unprecedented collaboration this election year to raise awareness about the threat facing South Florida from sea-level rise. In drumbeat fashion, we plan to inform, engage, provoke and build momentum to address the slow-motion tidal wave coming our way.
...
The problem is, we’re not convinced sea-level rise will harm us in our lifetimes. We’ve got to change that mindset because it already is. Like most of us, Doris Edelman of Hollywood hadn’t heard of king tides five years ago. Now she can’t leave her house those autumn days when king tides lift the Intracoastal Waterway over its banks, over her street and halfway up her driveway. She’s not an isolated case. ...
http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article210451219.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: josh-j on May 10, 2018, 02:27:49 PM
Three newspapers confront one challenge: Sea-level rise is real, South Florida needs all hands on deck — now

Now that is heartening to see! Excellent article.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Susan Anderson on May 10, 2018, 04:15:40 PM
Kilauea is getting to be more problematic. I could never understand living next to a volcano or on a active fault. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/10/609948589/scientists-warn-that-hawaiis-kilauea-volcano-could-erupt-ballistic-rocks (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/10/609948589/scientists-warn-that-hawaiis-kilauea-volcano-could-erupt-ballistic-rocks)

Interesting scientific discussion about the dynamics here and in other articles on the subject. Scary stuff!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 10, 2018, 04:29:10 PM
Kilauea is getting to be more problematic. I could never understand living next to a volcano or on a active fault. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/10/609948589/scientists-warn-that-hawaiis-kilauea-volcano-could-erupt-ballistic-rocks (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/10/609948589/scientists-warn-that-hawaiis-kilauea-volcano-could-erupt-ballistic-rocks)

Interesting scientific discussion about the dynamics here and in other articles on the subject. Scary stuff!

If you are so unlucky as to be smashed by one of these rocks, it is safe to say that Pele has decided it is your time.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Susan Anderson on May 10, 2018, 04:57:37 PM
Do have a look at one of the articles, the dynamics of the buildup are interesting. Indeed, a big boulder is curtains (to mix a metaphor). But it seems the bigger picture is much more dangerous, and threatens the whole region.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 10, 2018, 05:17:48 PM
Do have a look at one of the articles, the dynamics of the buildup are interesting. Indeed, a big boulder is curtains (to mix a metaphor). But it seems the bigger picture is much more dangerous, and threatens the whole region.

I'm no volcanologist (nor Vulcan, even if I play one at Halloween), but from having spent some hours over at VolcanoCafe in the past, I think the answer is "not so much."

Hawaii's volcanoes are fed by basaltic/oceanic crust, rather unlike volcanoes on continental land masses, which have silicate-rich magma/lava.   Hawaii's volcanoes thus emit less-viscous, more fluid and far less explosive lava.  When a Hawaiian volcano erupts, you can often safely just walk away from the flowing lava.

A few boulders might get thrown up into the air, but they're unlikely to see massive, destructive super-heated pyroclastic flows charging down a mountain and devastating whole towns.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on May 10, 2018, 06:41:42 PM
I've seen volcanic bombs that landed in dry lake beds far from any visible volcanos. They can't have been terribly old as the lakes had silted up to their present level before they flew in.
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 10, 2018, 08:16:19 PM
USGS warns of Kilauea’s explosive potential if magma reaches groundwater:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2164.msg153778.html#msg153778
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2018, 06:47:14 PM
California - a place becoming less liveable?

https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-05-10-california-climate-change-report-solar-panels-new-homes

Quote
California Reports On Dire Impacts of Climate Change, Fights Back by Becoming First State to Require Solar Panels on New Homes

On the same day the 350-page "Indicators of Climate Change in California" (https://oehha.ca.gov/media/downloads/climate-change/report/2018caindicatorsreportmay2018.pdf ) report was released, the California Energy Commission unanimously voted to approve measures requiring solar panels on all new homes, condos and multi-family buildings up to three stories high beginning in 2020.
One of the more disturbing findings, the scientists note, is the increase in the average nighttime temperatures, which have increased by 2.3 degrees over the past century.

Other findings in the report include:

• An increase in extreme heatwaves and accompanying droughts since 1950

• A 9 percent decrease in snowpack since 1906.

• The Sierra Nevada's largest glaciers shrunk by up to 70 percent.

• Lake Tahoe warmed by one degree since 1970 and has warmed 10 times faster over the past four years.

• The mean sea level in San Francisco has risen 7 inches since 1924.

• Oxygen depletion has also been detected in the water off San Diego.

• The five largest fire years since 1950 have all occurred since 2006.

Despite the litany of dire impacts presented in the report, the state has had some success in efforts to combat climate change by reducing harmful emissions, Rodriquez said.

"Our state’s pioneering efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse gases are working," he said. "Concentrations of the short-lived climate pollutant black carbon have dropped by more than 90 percent over the last fifty years."
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 11, 2018, 08:03:27 PM
I tend to become suspicious when the a study selects seemingly random years for their comparison, and quite variable at that.  Choosing 1950 for droughts, includes the recent wet decades, while removing several drier ones over the preceding century.  Other studies have shown much drier conditions existed even earlier.

https://www.water.ca.gov/LegacyFiles/waterconditions/docs/California_Signficant_Droughts_2015_small.pdf (https://www.water.ca.gov/LegacyFiles/waterconditions/docs/California_Signficant_Droughts_2015_small.pdf)

The heat wave data showed an increase in nighttime temperatures, but no significant increase in daytime heat waves.  Other studies have shown that nighttime irrigation increases nocturnal temperatures.

Subsequently, 1906 showed the deepest snowpack in recent history.  The years encompassing the previous decade were all 50-75% lower. 

The sea level rise in San Francisco amount to just under 2 mm/yr., less than the global average, and it appears to have been largely influenced by land subsidence.

The fire claim is just plain false.  The most recent large fire just nosed out the 2003 Cedar fire for the top spot (unless my math is wrong, 2003 occurred before 2006).  Choosing just five, and since 1950, eliminates the large 1932 Matilija fire.  There is considerable doubt as to the effect of climate change on fires, although most of the large fires can be considered manmade.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on May 11, 2018, 10:08:56 PM
So no climate change impacts on California?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 11, 2018, 11:33:41 PM
Quote
I tend to become suspicious when the a study selects seemingly random years for their comparison, and quite variable at that.

I tend to become suspicious when disaster costs keep rising, we know why, but people keep saying there is nothing to be concerned about. I really don't understand what you possibly have to gain from down playing the risks. It doesn't matter. The fires will continue, the floods will continue, the droughts will continue.

Any way, of all your nice and comforting but misleading information the easiest to debunk is the fires.

Top 20 largest  fires in California since 1932

http://www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Top20_Acres.pdf

14/20 happened after the year 2000, 6/20 since 2010, with less woods for fuel and a much larger fire service.

The rest is just as misleading when context is added, but the context is difficult to type.

Daniel B. what do you think you gain from playing down the risks of climate change?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 11, 2018, 11:40:29 PM
Quote
I tend to become suspicious when the a study selects seemingly random years for their comparison, and quite variable at that.

I tend to become suspicious when disaster costs keep rising, we know why, but people keep saying there is nothing to be concerned about. I really don't understand what you possibly have to gain from down playing the risks. It doesn't matter. The fires will continue, the floods will continue, the droughts will continue.

Any way, of all your nice and comforting but misleading information the easiest to debunk is the fires.

Top 20 largest  fires in California since 1932

http://www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Top20_Acres.pdf

14/20 happened after the year 2000, 6/20 since 2010, with less woods for fuel and a much larger fire service.

The rest is just as misleading when context is added, but the context is difficult to type.

Daniel B. what do you think you gain from playing down the risks of climate change?

Greater accuracy.

Of course fires, floods, and droughts will continue.  No one is saying that if we changed our behavior, that these things would cease.  By the way, the main reason that disaster costs are rising is that more and more people are building in flood plains, hurricane zones, etc. 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 12, 2018, 12:38:40 AM
Quote
Greater accuracy.

You think you are being more accurate? Let's see:

What Daniel B claims:

Quote
The heat wave data showed an increase in nighttime temperatures, but no significant increase in daytime heat waves.

What the paper claims:

 
Quote
Both extreme heat days and nights have increased at a faster rate in the past 30 years. Heat waves, defined as five or more consecutive extreme heat days or nights, are also increasing, especially at night.

Did you misread that or do you have evidence that contradicts the claims of the paper? Because if you don't then you didn't add accuracy, you simply lied (intentionally or not).

And then Daniel B. said:

Quote
The fire claim is just plain false.  The most recent large fire just nosed out the 2003 Cedar fire for the top spot (unless my math is wrong, 2003 occurred before 2006).  Choosing just five, and since 1950, eliminates the large 1932 Matilija fire

Another inaccurate statement. Fire years is not the same as largest fires by area. The top 5 fire years (total area burned) all happened after 2006. So once again, your "greater accuracy" turn out to be misleading lies.

You are not adding accuracy.  You are lying. What do you have to gain by that? you are also part of this world and your life style is in danger, just like ours. Why are you working against your own interests?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: miki on May 12, 2018, 12:50:33 AM
You are not adding accuracy. You are lying. What do you have to gain by that? you are also part of this world and your life style is in danger, just like ours. Why are you working against your own interests?

Archimid, I think you are wasting your time. I have decided to do not waste mine, at least on this forum, dealing with this kind of planned "insanity"... that's why when I see a post by D.B., no offense, I just bypass.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 02:48:40 AM
Quote
Greater accuracy.

You think you are being more accurate? Let's see:

What Daniel B claims:

Quote
The heat wave data showed an increase in nighttime temperatures, but no significant increase in daytime heat waves.

What the paper claims:

 
Quote
Both extreme heat days and nights have increased at a faster rate in the past 30 years. Heat waves, defined as five or more consecutive extreme heat days or nights, are also increasing, especially at night.

Did you misread that or do you have evidence that contradicts the claims of the paper? Because if you don't then you didn't add accuracy, you simply lied (intentionally or not).

And then Daniel B. said:

Quote
The fire claim is just plain false.  The most recent large fire just nosed out the 2003 Cedar fire for the top spot (unless my math is wrong, 2003 occurred before 2006).  Choosing just five, and since 1950, eliminates the large 1932 Matilija fire

Another inaccurate statement. Fire years is not the same as largest fires by area. The top 5 fire years (total area burned) all happened after 2006. So once again, your "greater accuracy" turn out to be misleading lies.

You are not adding accuracy.  You are lying. What do you have to gain by that? you are also part of this world and your life style is in danger, just like ours. Why are you working against your own interests?

You are cherry picking the heat wave data.  Yes, there was an increase in the last 30 years, but that just compensated for the decrease in the previous 30.  Overall, the net change was insignificant.

I may need to re-read the fire data.  Their data showed individual fires.  I may have missed their definition of a fire year.  Still, since most of the fires were man made, it is hard to blame any increase on climate change.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 12, 2018, 03:11:46 AM
Quote
You are cherry picking the heat wave data.

No, I'm just comparing what the paper said vs what you said. 

Quote
Yes, there was an increase in the last 30 years, but that just compensated for the decrease in the previous 30.

California average temperatures since 1900

(https://i1.wp.com/www.circleofblue.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/CAtemp2014.png?resize=590%2C353)

Quote
  Overall, the net change was insignificant.

And you base that on what exactly? Because you say so? I don't know but increasing billion dollar disasters beg to differ.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 04:51:08 AM
Quote
You are cherry picking the heat wave data.

No, I'm just comparing what the paper said vs what you said. 

Quote
Yes, there was an increase in the last 30 years, but that just compensated for the decrease in the previous 30.

California average temperatures since 1900

(https://i1.wp.com/www.circleofblue.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/CAtemp2014.png?resize=590%2C353)

Quote
  Overall, the net change was insignificant.

And you base that on what exactly? Because you say so? I don't know but increasing billion dollar disasters beg to differ.

I base that on the plot presented in the paper.  Not the one you posted, which has nothing to do with the discussion at hand.  What exactly does the average temperature have to do with daytime or nighttime heat waves?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 12, 2018, 05:14:29 AM
Quote
I base that on the plot presented in the paper.



You mean the night time heat waves graph on page 13? It's the same shape as the one I present.

Quote
Not the one you posted, which has nothing to do with the discussion at hand.  What exactly does the average temperature have to do with daytime or nighttime heat waves?

Average temperatures and number of heat waves are correlated. When the average temperature is higher than normal, then the chances that you get 5 or more days of temperatures above the threshold increase. The opposite is also true. The average temperature graph goes further back into the past than the heatwave count graph, but it behaves in about the same way.

Both of them completely contradict your claim that
 
Quote
Yes, there was an increase in the last 30 years, but that just compensated for the decrease in the previous 30.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 12, 2018, 05:25:41 AM
This is such an inaccuracy that I can’t help but to correct it.

 
Quote
Still, since most of the fires were man made, it is hard to blame any increase on climate change.

Climate change can make man made fires much, much worse. It is hotter, drier, with sick trees that burn faster. Humans may start the fire but the spread characteristics are due to the climate.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 12:46:39 PM
Quote
I base that on the plot presented in the paper.



You mean the night time heat waves graph on page 13? It's the same shape as the one I present.

Quote
Not the one you posted, which has nothing to do with the discussion at hand.  What exactly does the average temperature have to do with daytime or nighttime heat waves?

Average temperatures and number of heat waves are correlated. When the average temperature is higher than normal, then the chances that you get 5 or more days of temperatures above the threshold increase. The opposite is also true. The average temperature graph goes further back into the past than the heatwave count graph, but it behaves in about the same way.

Both of them completely contradict your claim that
 
Quote
Yes, there was an increase in the last 30 years, but that just compensated for the decrease in the previous 30.

Not when the average temperature increase is a direct result of increased nighttime temperatures.  That does not change the potential for daytime heat waves at all.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 12, 2018, 03:34:14 PM
Quote
Not when the average temperature increase is a direct result of increased nighttime temperatures

No, the average temperature increase is a result of global warming. That it warmed at night more than during the day is a signature of greenhouse gases.

Quote
That does not change the potential for daytime heat waves at all.

That doesn't even make sense. Day and night time temperatures are connected and influence each other.  Night temperatures don't change the potential of day temperatures?  That's madness. There is an eternal interaction between day and night.

The following paper goes into much greater accuracy:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL052979

Quote
Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub-regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime-accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub-regions of California. Part of the
 intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non-stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to
heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ghoti on May 12, 2018, 03:41:32 PM
Over night temperatures are part of the criteria used by Environment Canada to issue heat warnings:
Quote
Issued when 2 or more consecutive days of daytime maximum temperatures are expected to reach 31°C or warmer and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to fall to 21°C or warmer.

To me this means the risk of issued heat warnings increases with the trend of increasing overnight temperatures.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 04:23:16 PM
Quote
Not when the average temperature increase is a direct result of increased nighttime temperatures

No, the average temperature increase is a result of global warming. That it warmed at night more than during the day is a signature of greenhouse gases.

Quote
That does not change the potential for daytime heat waves at all.

That doesn't even make sense. Day and night time temperatures are connected and influence each other.  Night temperatures don't change the potential of day temperatures?  That's madness. There is an eternal interaction between day and night.

The following paper goes into much greater accuracy:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL052979

Quote
Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub-regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime-accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub-regions of California. Part of the
 intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non-stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to
heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources

That is my point exactly!  The increase in nighttime temperatures (while predicted by global warming theory), increases the average temperature, but does not affect the daytime temperature.  Even your publication supports to my post about increased water vapor leading to an increase in nighttime temperatures, but not daytime.  The increased cloudiness, due to higher humidity, is a temperature moderator. 

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdpi.com%2F2073-4395%2F8%2F3%2F25%2Fhtm&hash=5ea30c0a07f37f5e8a7f794004b93d30)

The following details the difference regions in California:

http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/8/3/25/htm (http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/8/3/25/htm)

The more humid, coastal regions have experienced an increase in heat waves since 1950, but the drier interior regions have seen a decrease.  Most affected has been the Central Valley, where agricultural irrigations appears to cause a significant increase in the nighttime heat wave indicator, while simultaneously causing a significant decrease in the daytime heat wave indicator.

If you have been reading some of the other threads, you we see a similar effect in the Arctic, whereby winter low temperatures have increased dramatically, but summer highs have not.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 04:38:22 PM
Over night temperatures are part of the criteria used by Environment Canada to issue heat warnings:
Quote
Issued when 2 or more consecutive days of daytime maximum temperatures are expected to reach 31°C or warmer and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to fall to 21°C or warmer.

To me this means the risk of issued heat warnings increases with the trend of increasing overnight temperatures.

Not necessarily.  Increases in clouds and water vapor tend to moderate the temperature, leading to increased overnight temperatures, while simultaneously decreasing daytime temperatures.  This is particularly true in the agricultural regions, where they found a 4-8C decrease in midday temperatures during the summer growing season.

http://faculty2.ucmerced.edu/lkueppers/pdf/Kueppers%20&%20Snyder%202011%20irrigation%20and%20regional%20diurnal%20energy%20fluxes%20clim%20circuln.pdf (http://faculty2.ucmerced.edu/lkueppers/pdf/Kueppers%20&%20Snyder%202011%20irrigation%20and%20regional%20diurnal%20energy%20fluxes%20clim%20circuln.pdf)

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 12, 2018, 05:07:47 PM
Quote
That is my point exactly! 

Ohh good, because inaccuracies like the one below are very misleading.

Quote
Yes, there was an increase in the last 30 years, but that just compensated for the decrease in the previous 30.  Overall, the net change was insignificant.

Sigh. Can you at least be consistent? I know it is hard to do when your views are not grounded in science, but in a desperate attempt to to feel safe. But you can at least try.

Quote
The increase in nighttime temperatures (while predicted by global warming theory), increases the average temperature, but does not affect the daytime temperature.

Global warming affects both day temperatures and night temperatures but the anomaly is greater at night temperatures.  Night and day temperature do affect each other.

 
Quote
Even your publication supports to my post about increased water vapor leading to an increase in nighttime temperatures, but not daytime.  The increased cloudiness, due to higher humidity, is a temperature moderator. 

I have no contention with that part. Clouds warm the night and cool the days. That is obvious. My contention is that:

1. You have claimed that this warming episode is part of a some sort of 30 year cycle. That is very misleading. Temperatures over California since 1900 illustrate why. yeas there are cycles, but so far the warmest part of the cycle is getting warmer and the coolest part of the cycle is also getting warmer, thus your argument is pure lies.

2. You imply that the cause for the nighttime increase is irrigation. While I don't doubt irrigation may play a role, the primary cause for the warming are GHG. Sure , you may now say" I never said GHG's didn't play a role" but that was the intention of your argument, with enough wiggle room for later denial.

Quote
If you have been reading some of the other threads, you we see a similar effect in the Arctic, whereby winter low temperatures have increased dramatically, but summer highs have not.

Similar in some ways but very different in others. Similar in that night temperatures increases much more than summer temperatures. Different in that surface temperatures north of 80 will remain constant until sufficient ice is gone. Once is gone summer temperatures will increase dramatically.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 05:11:23 PM
Quote
That is my point exactly! 

Ohh good, because inaccuracies like the one below are very misleading.

Quote
Yes, there was an increase in the last 30 years, but that just compensated for the decrease in the previous 30.  Overall, the net change was insignificant.

Sigh. Can you at least be consistent? I know it is hard to do when your views are not grounded in science, but in a desperate attempt to to feel safe. But you can at least try.

Quote
The increase in nighttime temperatures (while predicted by global warming theory), increases the average temperature, but does not affect the daytime temperature.

Global warming affects both day temperatures and night temperatures but the anomaly is greater at night temperatures.  Night and day temperature do affect each other.

 
Quote
Even your publication supports to my post about increased water vapor leading to an increase in nighttime temperatures, but not daytime.  The increased cloudiness, due to higher humidity, is a temperature moderator. 

I have no contention with that part. Clouds warm the night and cool the days. That is obvious. My contention is that:

1. You have claimed that this warming episode is part of a some sort of 30 year cycle. That is very misleading. Temperatures over California since 1900 illustrate why. yeas there are cycles, but so far the warmest part of the cycle is getting warmer and the coolest part of the cycle is also getting warmer, thus your argument is pure lies.

2. You imply that the cause for the nighttime increase is irrigation. While I don't doubt irrigation may play a role, the primary cause for the warming are GHG. Sure , you may now say" I never said GHG's didn't play a role" but that was the intention of your argument, with enough wiggle room for later denial.

Quote
If you have been reading some of the other threads, you we see a similar effect in the Arctic, whereby winter low temperatures have increased dramatically, but summer highs have not.

Similar in some ways but very different in others. Similar in that night temperatures increases much more than summer temperatures. Different in that surface temperatures north of 80 will remain constant until sufficient ice is gone. Once is gone summer temperatures will increase dramatically.

Where did you come up with this 30-year cycle?  I am not automatically ruling this out, but do you have any supporting documentation for this claim?

I am not claiming that the nighttime increase is entirely due to irrigation.  Just that the daytime decrease is.  Hence, there has been no observable rise in daytime heat waves.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on May 12, 2018, 05:30:57 PM
Is there any indication that irrigation in California has increased in recent decades?


When I moved to S.Cal. in 63 the vast orange groves needed constant irrigation, (and smudge pots kept the frost away). Today the city of Riverside and Orange County are wall to wall subdivisions.
Sprinkler systems are present, but so much is under asphalt that I doubt that irrigation has increased.


They've been irrigating, at least in the southern portion of the state since it belonged to Mexico.
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 05:44:56 PM
Is there any indication that irrigation in California has increased in recent decades?


When I moved to S.Cal. in 63 the vast orange groves needed constant irrigation, (and smudge pots kept the frost away). Today the city of Riverside and Orange County are wall to wall subdivisions.
Sprinkler systems are present, but so much is under asphalt that I doubt that irrigation has increased.


They've been irrigating, at least in the southern portion of the state since it belonged to Mexico.
Terry

As SoCal as transitioned from agriculture to suburbia, irrigation has decreased.  Consequently, the asphalt jungle has experienced a larger temperature increase than the rest of the state.  Conversely, irrigation has increased in the central valley area.  Most of the research into the effects of irrigation on temperature has been conducted in that area.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: John Batteen on May 12, 2018, 05:46:41 PM
I'm with you Terry.  I know in Phoenix at least, a given area of suburbia uses less water than the same area of orange trees.  Lots of citrus ripped out for suburbs in both Phoenix and California.  Plus with water becoming more scarce everyone is moving from flood to drip irrigation.  It's possible water use has remained the same, simply becoming more efficient with the same amount of water.  But I doubt it has increased significantly.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 12, 2018, 05:49:52 PM
You are not adding accuracy. You are lying. What do you have to gain by that? you are also part of this world and your life style is in danger, just like ours. Why are you working against your own interests?

Archimid, I think you are wasting your time. I have decided to do not waste mine, at least on this forum, dealing with this kind of planned "insanity"... that's why when I see a post by D.B., no offense, I just bypass.

I put him on ignore months ago.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 12, 2018, 06:03:41 PM
2 graphs for fires in California...

...to the untrained eye, you might conclude that fires are getting worse.


I would actually be quite worried by these trends except for two things.

1. I don't live in California.
2. Daniel B. tells me not to worry.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 12, 2018, 06:13:27 PM

The following paper goes into much greater accuracy:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL052979

Quote
Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub-regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime-accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub-regions of California. Part of the
 intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non-stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to
heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources

There you go again...getting all sciencey and shit.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 06:31:21 PM

The following paper goes into much greater accuracy:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012GL052979

Quote
Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub-regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime-accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub-regions of California. Part of the
 intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non-stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to
heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources

There you go again...getting all sciencey and shit.

Exactly!  That is the same publication to which I was referring.  They separated California into six diverse regions.  Since 1950, all six regions showed an increase in their nighttime heat wave indicator (about 15 days on average).  Of the six regions, only two showed an increase in their daytime heat wave indicator, the coastal north and south (15 days on average).  The northern forest and southern desert area showed variation over the 60-year period, but little net change.  The Mojave desert showed a large decrease over the first 20 years (>15 days), followed by an increase over the last 20 years (<15 days).   The central valley showed a large decrease (~20 days).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on May 12, 2018, 09:24:32 PM
^ Smog?
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ghoti on May 12, 2018, 09:30:27 PM
^ Smog?
Terry
Actually more like FUD
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 12, 2018, 09:34:00 PM
^ Smog?
Terry
Actually more like FUD

Sure, why not?  Spread more fear among the masses. 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: magnamentis on May 12, 2018, 10:40:50 PM
the colder temps are the easier it is to become warmer and matter of factly in general that's how its. look at the anomaly maps all over the place, the largest difference compared to averages are where it's coldest, this includes N of 80N but includes mountain regions.

the smallest increase in temps is where temps are high i.e. in the deserts where it has always been between 40 and 50C it still is 40 - 50 C, same to equator regions where humidity is flattening temps ups and downs.

of course there's more to it and there are more sophisticated ways to put it but in general it like that.

so much to night temps increasing faster than day times where the sun is the main heating source while at night it's airflow and earth-stored heat radiation.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on May 13, 2018, 11:01:41 AM
Following DB's claims up-thread of warming limited only to the nighttime, I have written this post in the Global Surface Air Temps thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg154180.html#msg154180 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg154180.html#msg154180)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 13, 2018, 02:24:32 PM
Following DB's claims up-thread of warming limited only to the nighttime, I have written this post in the Global Surface Air Temps thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg154180.html#msg154180 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg154180.html#msg154180)

Yes, your data does support my claims.  For those you have not read the paper, it shows that winter minimum temperatures are rising at a rate of 0.19C/decade, while summer maxima are rising at just 0.07C/decade.

The authors conclude, "While there are many factors which may asymmetrically affect the radiative forcing on the diurnal extreme temperatures, here, we demonstrate that the night‐time temperatures are inherently more sensitive to perturbations to the radiation balance and will warm more rapidly on a uniform forcing (such as that from the build‐up of greenhouse‐gases). This effect is most pronounced in regions where there is a strong diurnal cycle in the boundary‐layer depth, with shallow boundary‐layers forming at night."

Additionally, "DTR [diurnal temperature range] is significantly reduced largely because of strong increase in Tmin in wintertime (December through May) and in high latitudes." and for the Arctic regions specifically, "Practically all warming must be attributed to Tmin increase"
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 13, 2018, 03:24:35 PM
I'm struggling to find Daniels point in all his posting?

Like the above post where Min temps are referenced for the Arctic? We all know the winter temp hikes we have been witnessing there are linked to forcings removed from 'day/night' warming around the lower latitudes so what does it prove other than climate is becoming increasingly unstable?
The speed of recent winter changes to the Arctic is surely a warning as to just how quickly we can see whole regions alter the temperature characteristics and with warnings of increased desertification around the globe we potentially stand to see millions lose their homelands?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 13, 2018, 04:20:42 PM
I'm struggling to find Daniels point in all his posting?

At this point he is just pretending to be right about something to earn himself some credibility that will subconsciously transfer to his outrageous claims. He is trying to convince himself  that because most of the warming is at night it can safely be ignored and we can continue business as usual. OF course it is all nonsense. Disaster costs, extinction rates and ecosystems collapses are all rising and can be tracked to the warmer temperatures, regardless how the extra heat is distributed. They will all continue climbing as the climate changes due to AGW.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 13, 2018, 04:37:11 PM
I'm struggling to find Daniels point in all his posting?

Like the above post where Min temps are referenced for the Arctic? We all know the winter temp hikes we have been witnessing there are linked to forcings removed from 'day/night' warming around the lower latitudes so what does it prove other than climate is becoming increasingly unstable?
The speed of recent winter changes to the Arctic is surely a warning as to just how quickly we can see whole regions alter the temperature characteristics and with warnings of increased desertification around the globe we potentially stand to see millions lose their homelands?

It is precisely those unsupported apocalyptic warnings that lead me to post.  Many studies and coupled computer models state the opposite; that deserts are likely to experience increased rainfall with increasing temperatures.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on May 13, 2018, 04:40:10 PM
I'm struggling to find Daniels point in all his posting?
Going ad hominem for a bit, Daniel B. has a method. He states various claims which are always biased in one direction - everything is fine or almost fine. Then when he is refuted, his earlier statements twist themselves to similarly-sounding statements that mean different things. The statements are always worded such that any evidence against them is immediately presented as supporting them, hoping that the memory of the readers is somewhat befuddled and they will fail to make the distinction.
I know, DNFTT, but sometimes emotional control lets slip. Will try to do better.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 13, 2018, 04:40:57 PM
Recent research into increasing precipitation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2941 (https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2941)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1)

https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/ (https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 13, 2018, 04:49:02 PM
Many studies and coupled computer models state the opposite; that deserts are likely to experience increased rainfall with increasing temperatures.

The same trick again. First he wants to makes us believe that because the warming is greater at night there is nothing to worry about. That is nonsense and the disaster and extinction data confirms it. Now he is using the same trick with deserts. It is true that some deserts will experience greening. However, it is not true that desert greening is not threat. Desert greening will cause changes in cooling aerosol particles and changes in water cycles that will affect human settlements. Some of those changes will be good but most will be bad for the mere fact that adaptation must occur to the changes and adaptation has a cost.

We have a natural bias that says deserts = bad, so he takes advantage of that bias to drum the fact that some deserts are greening as good. The same with temperatures. Extreme heat is bad, so if he concentrates on the fact that most warming is at night then he might convince himself that climate change presents no risk. Both assumptions fall under the slightest scrutiny but if you are looking for false hope, both would do.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 13, 2018, 04:53:27 PM
Worse still, increasing humidity in hot arid sections of the planet will render these areas uninhabitable.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on May 13, 2018, 05:02:32 PM
I'm struggling to find Daniels point in all his posting?
Going ad hominem for a bit, Daniel B. has a method. He states various claims which are always biased in one direction - everything is fine or almost fine. Then when he is refuted, his earlier statements twist themselves to similarly-sounding statements that mean different things. The statements are always worded such that any evidence against them is immediately presented as supporting them, hoping that the memory of the readers is somewhat befuddled and they will fail to make the distinction.

I agree, and I suggest you cut it out, Daniel B. You are fully aware in what kind of echo chamber you are and that being the resident global warming risk denier, people will jump on you when you try to 'put things in perspective'. That means you need to be more clear when making statements.

I appreciate your presence for the sake of diversity, but my patience isn't endless.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on May 13, 2018, 05:03:14 PM
Where are the deserts getting green ? The only thing i read is that they are expanding fast.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on May 13, 2018, 05:07:22 PM
Worse still, increasing humidity in hot arid sections of the planet will render these areas uninhabitable.
It is funny how we say these things and some people think as ^ occurs, "uninhabitable" means mass death instead of mass migration (it means both).

Europe is going to be supremely screwed in short order unless liberal democracy is tossed out the window and extremely secure military buffer states are established in North Africa and the Middle East. However, that seems exceedingly unlikely, and Europe is probably going to be completely overrun due to the combinations of booming populations, geographic proximity, and absolute desperation (consider places like Yemen are still adding millions of new people each year!!!!).

Luckily Russia / China / the US seem to be awakening to somewhat more rational sensibilities and even if the U.S. takes a bit longer, the oceans are the country's greatest asset, and keep anything that isn't directly south of the border almost entirely at ease.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on May 13, 2018, 05:14:50 PM
It's not that bad in Europe. Sometimes you get your ass kicked because you are drinking alcohol. But hey, you have to respect other peoples opinion.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on May 13, 2018, 05:19:41 PM
Europe at the pitabar with a few beers.

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/video-vader-en-zoon-in-ziekenhuis-na-knokpartij-aan-pitabar-in-antwerpen~a4c3ac58/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 13, 2018, 05:23:02 PM
Where are the deserts getting green ? The only thing i read is that they are expanding fast.

The Sahara for one:

https://phys.org/news/2016-07-warmer-mediterranean-sahel-green.html (https://phys.org/news/2016-07-warmer-mediterranean-sahel-green.html)

"rising sea surface temperatures outside the tropics result in more rainfall in the Sahel."

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: jai mitchell on May 13, 2018, 05:29:41 PM
Recent research into increasing precipitation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2941 (https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2941)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1)

https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/ (https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/495/2017/)

I don't think that those papers say what you think that they say.

actual studies of desert expansion show the trend

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0187.1

Twentieth-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Expansion

Natalie Thomas and Sumant Nigam

Quote
the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the twentieth century, by 11%–18% depending on the season, and by 10% when defined using annual rainfall.

article here:  https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180329141035.htm
The Sahara Desert is expanding
New study finds that the world's largest desert grew by 10 percent since 1920, due in part to climate change

Quote
The study results suggest that human-caused climate change, as well as natural climate cycles such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), caused the desert's expansion. The geographical pattern of expansion varied from season to season, with the most notable differences occurring along the Sahara's northern and southern boundaries.

"Deserts generally form in the subtropics because of the Hadley circulation, through which air rises at the equator and descends in the subtropics," Nigam said. "Climate change is likely to widen the Hadley circulation, causing northward advance of the subtropical deserts. The southward creep of the Sahara however suggests that additional mechanisms are at work as well, including climate cycles such as the AMO."
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 13, 2018, 05:35:36 PM
Yes, the desert shrank from 1920s-1950s, then expanded from 1950s-1980s, and has been shrinking since.  Exactly which of those periods correspond to increasing temperatures?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 13, 2018, 05:37:31 PM
Made the mistake of opening his latest post and found the typical inaccuracies.

It begins with cherry picking, linking to an article that suggests that warming of the Mediterranean results in stronger West African monsoons (likely) with increased rainfall in the Sahel. He then states that the Sahara is greening. It is not as the Sahel is not the Sahara Desert. Worse still, the only areas of the Sahel, a semi-arid section of sub-Saharan Africa, that is seeing more rainfall is in the West. Meanwhile the eastern section is experiencing a decades long drought as a result of the same warming. This same heating of the Mediterranean is resulting in reduced rainfall across North Africa and southern Europe.

Carry on.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 13, 2018, 05:40:19 PM
Quote
I appreciate your presence for the sake of diversity, but my patience isn't endless.

This. Without people like Daniel B. we become trapped in our own echo chamber. That's why appreciate the moderation in this forum. People like Daniel B in the denier spectrum and people like me in the alarmist spectrum are both allowed to post allowing information exchange to happen.

It's not pretty, but I think it works. 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 13, 2018, 07:24:22 PM
It’s often hard to understand the reasoning of those who choose to live in harm’s way when they have the option to live elsewhere.  (I.e., on the coast, despite storms and sea level rise.). Here are folks who live in the shadow of an active volcanoe on the Big Island of Hawaii.

Once the lava stops, rebuilding and futures uncertain in Hawaii
Quote
Lava engulfed the community of Kalapana, which is southwest of Leilani Estates and near Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park, in 1990. The lava flow buried 100 homes, as well as some other structures, beneath 50 to 80 feet of lava, according to the USGS.

But by 2012, people had returned and new homes had been built in Kalapana Gardens. Honolulu magazine spoke with residents therethat year, including Kent Napper and Nancy Lowe, who built a small two-story house there. "Where else in Hawaii can you buy land with an ocean view like this for $10,000?" they told the publication.

In 2014, NBC News spoke to Chris Adkins, a tax return examiner in Hilo, who was building a home on a lava field in Kalapana. He bought a 0.6-acre lot for $6,500. "I'll have no mortgage, no homeowner's association. It's all a matter of perspective," he said then.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/once-lava-stops-rebuilding-futures-uncertain-hawaii-n873581
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on May 13, 2018, 07:36:25 PM
Uh oh... long-range, but...

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018051312/gfs_apcpn_seus_52.png)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 21, 2018, 09:10:08 PM
Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.

Norfolk Wants to Remake Itself as Sea Level Rises, but Who Will Be Left Behind?
Quote
...While many of those communities may end up protected by walls or other infrastructure, there's growing recognition that some places will just get wetter and wetter and be lost to the sea.

Map: Water Keeps Returning to Norfolk's Historic Shorelines

For Norfolk, these neighborhoods are represented in the "yellow zone" of Vision 2100, the places where innovation, adaptation or retreat will take the place of hardened protections like floodwalls or levees. This concession raises a host of ethical and even existential questions for cities, about who and what to protect and what to do as a place like Norfolk, bound by water on three sides, begins to shrink. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15052018/norfolk-virginia-navy-sea-level-rise-flooding-urban-planning-poverty-coastal-resilience
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on May 21, 2018, 09:32:29 PM
Who will be left behind? the poor, of course. From that article:

"After Norfolk knocks down St. Paul's public housing, which it hopes to do in phases beginning early 2020, it will not replace all 1,700 subsidized units. Instead, privately owned buildings would include a mix of market rate and rent-controlled units. "

"The city has a history of demolishing housing for poor, black residents and not following through on promises to help them find somewhere better. This time, officials say, things will be different."

Yeah, right.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2018, 01:43:29 AM
Heatwave kills at least 65 in Pakistan
Quote
Hotter than average temperatures have killed at least 65 people in just three days in Karachi, Pakistan.

Temperatures reached a high of 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit) on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, way above the average daily high for May of 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit).

The situation was exacerbated by power outages citywide and ongoing fasting for the holy month of Ramadan, during which many Muslims abstain from eating and drinking during daylight hours. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/05/22/asia/pakistan-heat-wave-wxc-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tunnelforce9 on May 23, 2018, 03:05:09 AM
Worse still, increasing humidity in hot arid sections of the planet will render these areas uninhabitable.
It is funny how we say these things and some people think as ^ occurs, "uninhabitable" means mass death instead of mass migration (it means both).

Europe is going to be supremely screwed in short order unless liberal democracy is tossed out the window and extremely secure military buffer states are established in North Africa and the Middle East. However, that seems exceedingly unlikely, and Europe is probably going to be completely overrun due to the combinations of booming populations, geographic proximity, and absolute desperation (consider places like Yemen are still adding millions of new people each year!!!!).

Luckily Russia / China / the US seem to be awakening to somewhat more rational sensibilities and even if the U.S. takes a bit longer, the oceans are the country's greatest asset, and keep anything that isn't directly south of the border almost entirely at ease.

I'm sorry to spoil your party but the one reason why so many immigrants poor into Europe is because of Americas foreign policies. (war)

Another thing:
It's 100x safer to walk through Amsterdam then Chicago.
America is not really a free country in my opinion, you are only free if you can go to school without the need to carry a gun.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 23, 2018, 03:36:41 AM
Quote
The situation was exacerbated by power outages citywide

This. I bet many components of the grid are not tested at these temperatures for long. There is no reason to do that. Old and poorly maintained equipment will fail if overheated and under strenuous loads. Once the power goes out then water pumps stop working, cold water is not available, no fans, no air conditioner, only misery. 

As someone who lives in the tropics heat waves terrify me.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 23, 2018, 03:12:41 PM
Quote
The situation was exacerbated by power outages citywide

This. I bet many components of the grid are not tested at these temperatures for long. There is no reason to do that. Old and poorly maintained equipment will fail if overheated and under strenuous loads. Once the power goes out then water pumps stop working, cold water is not available, no fans, no air conditioner, only misery. 

As someone who lives in the tropics heat waves terrify me.

We are only one historically unprecedented, extreme weather event away from one hundred thousand people dying in an urban area. This will occur in the developing world due to a heat wave and the deaths will occur in a rapid cascade that will overwhelm the response to contain it. It is not a question of if. It is a question of when.

They will be buried in mass graves.

U.S. Congress critters in D.C. will respond by pointing out how unseasonably cool and rainy the summer has been on the east coast which has really disrupted their golfing.

Oh! And Al Gore is fat.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 23, 2018, 03:25:28 PM
Quote
They will be buried in mass graves

More likely incinerated like they did where I live.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 25, 2018, 02:45:39 AM
U.S. ski resorts becoming less skiable.

What the Worst Winter in 60 Years Did to Ski Resorts
2018 was one of the driest seasons on record. How many resorts can survive another like it?
https://www.outsideonline.com/2310791/winter-really-was-bad-everyone-thought

“We are the people who can bring attention to this problem and help solve it,” Schendler says. “The outdoor industry is huge, bigger than Big Pharma, and we have wielded absolutely no power. What are you if you have the ability to solve a problem and choose not to? The outdoor industry and the ski industry can be the NRA on climate. We have to be.”
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on May 25, 2018, 01:44:16 PM
U.S. ski resorts becoming less skiable.

What the Worst Winter in 60 Years Did to Ski Resorts
2018 was one of the driest seasons on record. How many resorts can survive another like it?
https://www.outsideonline.com/2310791/winter-really-was-bad-everyone-thought

“We are the people who can bring attention to this problem and help solve it,” Schendler says. “The outdoor industry is huge, bigger than Big Pharma, and we have wielded absolutely no power. What are you if you have the ability to solve a problem and choose not to? The outdoor industry and the ski industry can be the NRA on climate. We have to be.”

Not sure who these people are, but they are definitely feeding misinformation.  They are comparing this winter to last year's record high snowfall totals.  Better to compare to average snowfall: Squaw Valley averages 450", and has received (so far) 367", 18% below average.  Crested Buttes averages 217", and has received 145", 33% below average.  Telluride averages 309", and has received 159", almost half of the average.  Vail averages 184", and has received 171", 7% below average.  That is just 27% below average for the four ski resorts (could not find a Taos average).  Not too bad, especially compared to the drought years.  In the winter or 2014-15, Squaw Valley received 235", and only 180" in 2012-13. 

The article conveniently left out those resort that experienced abundant snowfall.  Resorts further north had banner years.  Wyoming's Jackson Hole, Idaho's Schweitzer, Montana's Whitefish, and Whistler all had high snowfall totals, and had record seasons.  Ski resorts out east also had a banner year, thanks to multiple heavy snows. 

It is no surprise that the listed resorts experienced a drop in skiers this past winter, the skiers will travel to where the snow is best, and this year, it was not the resorts listed.  Last season was different, as they all experienced abundant snowfall.  As the article states, a single down season is not rare.  However, that does not mean that this is a sign of things to come.  Very poor and misleading article.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on May 25, 2018, 11:32:27 PM
This has been a sign for things to come for a while. Winter is simply not what it used to be and the changes are just starting.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: miki on May 26, 2018, 01:32:31 AM
U.S. ski resorts becoming less skiable.

What the Worst Winter in 60 Years Did to Ski Resorts
2018 was one of the driest seasons on record. How many resorts can survive another like it?
https://www.outsideonline.com/2310791/winter-really-was-bad-everyone-thought

“We are the people who can bring attention to this problem and help solve it,” Schendler says. “The outdoor industry is huge, bigger than Big Pharma, and we have wielded absolutely no power. What are you if you have the ability to solve a problem and choose not to? The outdoor industry and the ski industry can be the NRA on climate. We have to be.”

Thanks for the reference! Here in Santa Fe, NM, basically no snow season this year. It was a down not just for the ski basin resorts, but for a lot of other town businesses that count on it for the season. I bet it will effect next year as well. A lot of the folk that came here and found no snow this year, are likely to choose other less disappointing destinations next year.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 26, 2018, 01:37:43 AM
Snow needs to fall at 200% of normal through April for Colorado’s snowpack to catch up
Snowpack is only 72 percent of normal statewide, which means water managers are keeping a close eye on reservoirs
https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/07/colorado-snowpack-low/

Colorado SNOTEL Snowpack Update Report
https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Colorado&format=SNOTEL+Snowpack+Update+Report

Upper Colorado Basin Snowpack
Snowpack is 38.1% of the May 25th average.
http://www.snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php
Image below.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Hefaistos on May 29, 2018, 11:01:46 AM
Mussels test positive for opioids in Seattle's Puget Sound

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44256765
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on June 09, 2018, 01:12:35 PM
Places becoming unlivable:-

The Mekong delta and....?
sea level rise, inundation.
&
build dams in the headwaters - reducing flow in the mekong delta and flooding fertile floodplains up stream.


https://robertscribbler.com/
Climate Change Indicated in Forced Migration of 1.7 Million from Mekong Delta

Quote
Global sea level rise caused by fossil fuel burning is an issue that is creating worsening impacts to cities, nations, and civilization itself. And according to recent reports out of Vietnam, 1.7 million people have migrated from the low-lying Mekong Delta region over the past decade. Primary causes included climate change and poverty.

Rising oceans have forced Vietnam to erect a system of dykes of up to 4 meters in height in an increasingly complex system of coastal defense barriers. These barriers have saved lands from inundation as the ocean off the low-lying Mekong Delta continues to rise year-after-year. However, the dykes have not prevented salt water from moving further and further up the Mekong River. And during recent years, this salt water has inundated soils used for rice production.

Such salt water inundation has wiped out crops for many farmers. For example, in the Soc Trang region, the farmers of Thang Dong saw their crops completely wiped out during 2013 as salt water seeped into the soil and killed off food-producing plants. In low-lying near coastal regions, the story has been much the same for Mekong farmers. And with less reliable crops come increasing poverty.

https://phys.org/news/2018-03-mekong-river-disrupt-environment.html

Study says Mekong River dams could disrupt lives, environment

Quote
Olson and Morton report that construction on the Xayaburi Dam, the first dam south of the China border to be constructed across the main stem of the Mekong River, has been quietly underway for years and is scheduled for completion in 2018. The dam has incited worldwide opposition, as well as local protests and violence.

"Many are concerned that the Xayaburi Hydropower Dam in Laos, could cause irreversible and long-term ecological damage to a river that feeds millions of people, force the resettlement of 2,100, directly affect 202,000 people who use the Mekong bottomlands to produce food, and may push endangered fish, such as Mekong giant catfish, to extinction," Olson says.

Morton, professor emeritus in the Department of Sociology at Iowa State, adds, "The Mekong River and adjacent lands are where the poorest people in Southeast Asia live. Average annual income is less than $200. They make their living from floodplain and riverbank agriculture and fishing. Laos is a mountainous country and the fertile soils are in the floodplains, many of which will be permanently flooded with the construction of these large dams.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-03-mekong-river-disrupt-environment.html#

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2015/05/mekong-river-dams/

Harnessing the Mekong or Killing It?

Quote
Dams are rising all along the Mekong. The people of Southeast Asia need the clean electricity—but also the fish and rice that an undammed river provides.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: DrTskoul on June 09, 2018, 01:57:49 PM
Quote

Harnessing the Mekong or Killing It?

Quote
Dams are rising all along the Mekong. The people of Southeast Asia need the clean electricity—but also the fish and rice that an undammed river provides.

And there lies the rub. How to satisfy both energy and food security with the clean energy options available to them?...
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: P-maker on June 09, 2018, 02:39:51 PM
How about wind turbines and pumped hydro in the mountains. This would avoid large seasonal storage and provide occasional (controllable) floods and water in the river all year round, as well as cheap renewable energy most of the time. Add a few PV fields on the coast, and you would be up and running.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on June 09, 2018, 08:22:42 PM
How about wind turbines and pumped hydro in the mountains. This would avoid large seasonal storage and provide occasional (controllable) floods and water in the river all year round, as well as cheap renewable energy most of the time. Add a few PV fields on the coast, and you would be up and running.

They have built, are building, and will continue to build the bloody dams.

As the saying goes " it is what it is" (not what we would prefer it to be)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on June 09, 2018, 08:26:19 PM
Worse still, increasing humidity in hot arid sections of the planet will render these areas uninhabitable.
It is funny how we say these things and some people think as ^ occurs, "uninhabitable" means mass death instead of mass migration (it means both).

Europe is going to be supremely screwed in short order unless liberal democracy is tossed out the window and extremely secure military buffer states are established in North Africa and the Middle East. However, that seems exceedingly unlikely, and Europe is probably going to be completely overrun due to the combinations of booming populations, geographic proximity, and absolute desperation (consider places like Yemen are still adding millions of new people each year!!!!).

Luckily Russia / China / the US seem to be awakening to somewhat more rational sensibilities and even if the U.S. takes a bit longer, the oceans are the country's greatest asset, and keep anything that isn't directly south of the border almost entirely at ease.

I'm sorry to spoil your party but the one reason why so many immigrants poor into Europe is because of Americas foreign policies. (war)

Another thing:
It's 100x safer to walk through Amsterdam then Chicago.
America is not really a free country in my opinion, you are only free if you can go to school without the need to carry a gun.

Blah blah blah. An elitest European talking about how awful America is.

You export all your industry to the developing world. The coincidence of heavy industry with Europe's former colonies is no accident.

Of course the Euros make arguments "oh but we have emissions standards" bla bla bla but then you find out Mercedes and Volswagen (the same companies complicit in the genocide of the Jews) have been evading emissions standards this whole time. Quel surprise?

Europe is full of moral hypocrites who are content with slavery. You will be destroyed precisely because your abundance of slaves will no longer be content with the status quo of capitalism. This is driven by Europeans, NOT Americans, which is why your governments keep crying about tariffs etc (because actually reducing CONSUMERISM is the key issue and the UN/Europe can't have that).

You are going to be overwhelmed by hundreds of millions of starving people over the next decade or two and it is all your fault. Thank goodness for our oceans!

Best,

An American
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on June 09, 2018, 08:28:25 PM
How about wind turbines and pumped hydro in the mountains. This would avoid large seasonal storage and provide occasional (controllable) floods and water in the river all year round, as well as cheap renewable energy most of the time. Add a few PV fields on the coast, and you would be up and running.
Wind turbines look great on paper but Sweden et al point to "clean energy" while IKEA et. al are exploiting untolds millions of desperate people in the third world, clear-cutting forests and giving any f*cks about the environment in the process. Sweden collaborated with the Nazis, it is a nation of six million white idiots who are completely protected by a social network that relies on the slave labor of Africans and Asians, and they will pay the piper sooner or later.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on June 09, 2018, 08:32:05 PM
Europe and the USA are becoming increasingly irrelevant. While Europe and the USA sling insults at each other it is China and India and Indonesia and Vietnam and Brazil and Russia........who will determine the future of this planet.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on June 09, 2018, 08:45:46 PM
Europe and the USA are becoming increasingly irrelevant. While Europe and the USA sling insults at each other it is China and India and Indonesia and Vietnam and Brazil and Russia........who will determine the future of this planet.
That is a joke. China is the only contender. India will be swallowed by billions of starving people and the other "candidates" above will face similar destinies.

The 21st Century will see a re-aligning of Russia/China/the US against an onslaught of destitute third world victims of capitalism. Capitalism will hold strong. Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India will not.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on June 09, 2018, 09:34:39 PM
Please relax the mud-slinging a bit. Sometimes it feels that the ASIF is one of those places becoming less livable.  :(
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on June 09, 2018, 09:46:04 PM
Perhaps not the appropriate thread, but in Ontario, the Liberal party has been ousted in a crushing defeat and the Conservatives will be in (majority) power for the next 4 years.
Many will remember Toronto's obese, crack smoking Mayor from a few years back. His brother is my new Premier. Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber.
Comparisons to Trump are appropriate. Doug could be Donald's younger brother, the one without social skills, intellect or charm. Donald dyes his hair orange, Doug dyes his blond. Donald inherited his daddy's company and grew the business. Doug inherited his daddies business and is being sued by his sister in law for running it into the ground.


Ontario, under 15 years of Liberal rule has been a National and North American leader in environmental issues, now Doug wants to roll back these programs. Ending cap and trade will save us a dime per liter at the pump he claims.
He ran on a platform of slashing taxes and regulations while promising to fire no government employees as he balances the budget. No coherent plan for how this could be done was ever disclosed.
His only political experience is as a city council member. He failed in his run for Mayor. Now he's Premier of Ontario without ever having been a parliamentarian.


Wish us luck as we're going to need an awful lot of it.
Terry

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on June 09, 2018, 10:00:12 PM

 China is the only contender. India will be swallowed by billions of starving people and the other "candidates" above will face similar destinies.

The 21st Century will see a re-aligning of Russia/China/the US against an onslaught of destitute third world victims of capitalism. Capitalism will hold strong. Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India will not.
For why do you think China is not immune from climate change and over-exploitation of the natural environment ?

China has very little good agricultural land. They are buying concessions for vast estates all over the place whose function is simply to grow food for back home.When food supply becomes critical say, in Africa, do you think the local won't take matters into their own hands.

Their President - now with the power of a Mao Tse Tung, has the dream of making China the No. 1 economic superpower and now has the power to force through the policies to make it happen. Do you think the natural environment will not suffer as a result?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 14, 2018, 05:01:28 PM
Antarctica is losing ice at a staggering rate: 6,500 tons *per second*
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1007032759653715968

Quote
Forty percent of sea level rise since 1992 has happened in just the past five years — a three-fold increase in the pace at which icebergs are breaking away from land, according to a comprehensive new study based on satellite data, ground measurements, and models.
...
Antarctica’s glaciers are massive enough to flood every coastal city on Earth. So it’s no exaggeration to say that what happens in Antarctica over the next few decades will determine the fate of not just Miami and Mumbai, but also the course of human history. If we’re lucky and quickly start cutting emissions, Antarctica’s glaciers might mostly remain in place. The alternative is unthinkable.
...
https://grist.org/article/antarctic-melt-holds-coastal-cities-hostage-heres-the-way-out/

Cross-post from Sea Level Rise thread.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Daniel B. on June 15, 2018, 03:26:22 PM
40% in the last five years?  How did they come up with that figure?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sleepy on June 15, 2018, 03:55:01 PM
Read the paper? It's free in the link.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Avalonian on June 15, 2018, 04:44:00 PM
The Beeb has picked up on the worsening water crisis in India:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44492994

600 million people facing acute water shortage, and 21 cities likely to run out of groundwater by 2020. One wonders how long a country with a massive and rapidly increasing population can deal with a situation like this. 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on June 16, 2018, 12:59:41 PM
The Beeb has picked up on the worsening water crisis in India:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44492994

600 million people facing acute water shortage, and 21 cities likely to run out of groundwater by 2020. One wonders how long a country with a massive and rapidly increasing population can deal with a situation like this.

And to make things worse:-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/15/delhi-blanketed-by-smog-so-toxic-it-cant-be-measured

Delhi's air pollution is now so bad it is literally off the chart
Dust storms come months before the start of city’s traditional ‘pollution season’


Quote
Smog more toxic than can be measured by monitoring devices has blanketed the Indian capital this week, months before the start of Delhi’s traditional “pollution season”.

A thick haze was visible across the city from Tuesday and some government pollution monitors have recorded concentrations of 999 – the highest they can measure – as dust storms kicked up in nearby Rajasthan state blanketed the region.

Though the billowing clouds of dust and sand were blamed for the immediate spike in pollution levels, the sight of dense smog engulfing Delhi months before winter has underscored a growing awareness that harmful air is a year-round problem for the city.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 16, 2018, 02:54:22 PM
U.S.:  View graphs of historical average temperature for any of the 48 contiguous United States with this tool from @NOAANCEIclimate:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/time-series/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 17, 2018, 06:10:20 AM
The Beeb has picked up on the worsening water crisis in India:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44492994

600 million people facing acute water shortage, and 21 cities likely to run out of groundwater by 2020. One wonders how long a country with a massive and rapidly increasing population can deal with a situation like this.

A human being can last about 5 days without water so that increasing population thing can be dealt with rather quickly.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Avalonian on June 17, 2018, 07:17:34 AM
A human being can last about 5 days without water so that increasing population thing can be dealt with rather quickly.

Quite. Combined with the smog and dust storms, and the major water problems over the border in Pakistan... not good for regional stability, either.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 17, 2018, 03:36:32 PM
A human being can last about 5 days without water so that increasing population thing can be dealt with rather quickly.

Quite. Combined with the smog and dust storms, and the major water problems over the border in Pakistan... not good for regional stability, either.

There will be, at some point in the not too distant future, a massive catastrophe due to the complete cessation of available drinking water. This will occur in a remote, underdeveloped region of the planet and authorities will be overwhelmed by the rapidly emerging catastrophe. This already happens with famine and, while famine now will kill hundreds of thousands, it takes several years for this to play out. This drinking water catastrophe will sweep across a region and will kill hundreds of thousands in a matter of days.

People in the developed world will shrug their collective shoulders and blame the mismanagement of available water sources by stupid people in backward places.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 18, 2018, 07:37:15 PM
The dirty word in South Florida’s watery future: retreat
Quote
Even in the most modest scenarios, dealing with rising seas in the coming decades will be messy, complicated, and hugely expensive. Taxes will increase.  Insurance rates will skyrocket. Lawsuits will proliferate. Salt water will corrode your car. Trees will die.  New water-borne diseases will emerge.  Biscayne Bay will go murky from the increased run-off and pollution.  Racial and class tensions will arise over who gets protected from the flooding and who doesn’t.

So if you live in South Florida, you might ask yourself: Why stick around?  And if you own a house or condo, you might think: Why not sell now, while there are plenty of buyers in the market and prices are high?

If you’re a city official in South Florida, this is your nightmare.  Once people start to see Florida real estate not as an investment, but as a stranded asset, the real trouble begins.  In Florida especially, where there is no sales tax, property taxes are vital to paying for basic services like police and fire departments and schools.

But local governments also need these revenues to pay for infrastructure improvements to defend against rising seas.  If Floridians start moving to Asheville and foreign investors start shifting their investments to Costa Rica, property values will fall, which means there will be less money for cops and teachers, but also less money for raising roads and building sea walls.

As the water rises, quality of life declines, people leave. Those who are left behind tend to be poorer, sicker, more in need of services.  It’s the kind of downward economic spiral that is very hard to pull out of.
https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2018/06/17/the-dirty-word-in-south-floridas-watery-future-retreat/

Broward Leaders Are Worried About How To Pay For Sea-Level Rise
https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2018/06/01/broward-leaders-are-worried-about-how-to-pay-for-sea-level-rise/

The Invading Sea is a collaboration by the editorial boards of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post — with reporting by WLRN Public Media — to address the threat South Florida faces from sea-level rise. We want to raise awareness, amplify the voice of our region and create a call to action that can't be ignored.
https://www.theinvadingsea.com/about-us/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on June 21, 2018, 08:17:56 AM
I don't think that the real estate and financing industry in the USA yet understands the impact. Sea level rise is a threat, certainly. 

But, in addition, far inland,  there are huge numbers of mortgaged and insured structures, both commercial and residential, in so called millennial flood zones. And as we see, violent precipitation is increasing quickly. Those millennial zones will turn into 50 yr zones soon, at least as far as private insurance is concerned, outside the bankrupt and politically corrupted NFIP (national flood insurance program.)

There's a very large amount of money tied up in this. On one side you got current owners who don't want any change to floodplain maps. On the other, you got the moneybags who own their mortgages and sell them insurance. And the moneybags employ smart people to guard against holes in the bags.

sidd

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on June 21, 2018, 10:57:59 AM
The dirty word in South Florida’s watery future: retreat

The Union of Concerned Scientists have produced a report to show that by 2050 300,000 US homes are at risk of "chronic inundation" - defined as flooding at least 26 times a year.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/sea-level-rise-impact-us-coastal-homes-study-climate-change
Flooding from sea level rise threatens over 300,000 US coastal homes – study
Climate change study predicts ‘staggering impact’ of swelling oceans on coastal communities within next 30 years[/b]
Quote
The UCS used federal data from a high sea level rise scenario projected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and combined it with property data from the online real estate company Zillow to quantify the level of risk across the lower 48 states.

Under this scenario, where planet-warming emissions are barely constrained and the seas rise by about 6.5ft globally by the end of the century, 311,000 homes along the US coastline would face flooding on average 26 times a year within the next 30 years – a typical lifespan for a new mortgage.

The losses would multiply by the end of the century, with the research warning that as many as 2.4m homes, worth around a trillion dollars, could be put at risk. Low-lying states would be particularly prone, with a million homes in Florida, 250,000 homes in New Jersey and 143,000 homes in New York at risk of chronic flooding by 2100.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2018, 01:49:22 AM
If you don’t trust the government’s assessment of your home’s sea level rise risk, you can buy your own.

Company hopes to cash in on mapping sea level rise for Florida buyers
Quote
South Florida cities have spent tens of millions of dollars in planning and construction efforts to keep the sea at bay.

Miami Beach’s ambitious plan to raise roads, install pumps and redo water mains gained international attention for its bullish approach to combat flooding tides. But just last month, a community slated for the next elevated road project had the plan sacked.

Some neighbors told Miami Beach commissioners they didn’t need the modification and were concerned about whether water from a higher road would flood their homes.

“We’re seeing very, very different approaches from just ignoring it and thinking maybe it will go away to some places that are being very proactive wanting to confront it,” said David Titley, a meteorology professor at Pennsylvania State University and an unpaid advisor for Coastal. “We have big challenges as a nation, but they can be addressed.”

Coastal Risk Consultants charges $199 for a basic assessment of a single-family home. A commercial building costs $499. From that initial report, clients can choose to go more in depth for higher fees.
...
https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/weather/hurricanes/company-hopes-cash-mapping-sea-level-rise-for-florida-buyers/Z4wBBiLRtFE6fNzMqqjnVL/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 25, 2018, 05:30:18 PM
XKCD Comic:
“Newton's Trajectories”
https://mobile.twitter.com/xkcdComic/status/1011103295375433728
Image below.

Elon Musk:
“Could be very close call. Earth is ~4.5B years old & sun will expand to heat Earth beyond livable temp in ~0.5B years, so if advent of civilization took 10% longer, it wouldn’t have happened at all.

This doesn’t take into account shifting trillions of tons of carbon from subsurface to atmosphere, which could accelerate overheating time by a factor of a million (or so). This is why Tesla.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1011114064737693697
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 08, 2018, 04:35:20 PM
Tehran Orders Electricity Outages to Deal With Surging Use
Quote
Power will go out for two hours at a time in staggered stoppages across Tehran province as Iranian authorities grapple with a surge in electricity usage during a heat wave.

In a notification that upbraided some consumers for cranking up their air conditioners, the provincial electricity utility sent out a table outlining its rolling blackouts. Temperatures have soared beyond 104 degrees (40 degrees Celsius.)

Similar timetables may be published for five other Iranian provinces, the Donya-e-Eghtesad newspaper reported on Sunday, citing Deputy Energy Minister Mahmoud-Reza Haghi-Fam.

The power outages are the latest attempt by Iranian authorities to curb power usage that has gone up about 7 percent compared with the previous year. While blackouts aren’t unprecedented in Iran’s scalding summers, they’ve been more frequent this year.

In a related step, Tehran province’s governor, Mohammad-Hossein Moghimi, announced Friday that government offices, banks and public service institutions would work earlier hours over the next two weeks in an effort to reduce electricity consumption, ISNA reported. Public transportation will also start earlier, Moghimi said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-07-08/tehran-orders-electricity-outages-to-deal-with-surging-use
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 08, 2018, 04:38:50 PM
Climate refugees

”Last year, extreme weather events were largely responsible for displacing almost 19 million people around the world.”

AMCDRR focus on disaster displacement
Quote
A regional consultation process was launched yesterday on new guidelines to encourage inclusion of disaster displacement reduction in strategies to implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the global plan for reducing the numbers of people affected by disasters. ...
https://www.unisdr.org/archive/59100
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: jacksmith4tx on July 10, 2018, 12:57:42 AM
A disaster in the making, India's water crisis will be historic.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/india-water-crisis/feature-indias-worst-water-crisis-in-history-leaves-millions-thirsty-idUKL8N1TM2XR
"From the northern Himalayas to the sandy, palm-fringed beaches in the south, 600 million people - nearly half India’s population - face acute water shortage, with close to 200,000 dying each year from polluted water...

Water pollution is a major challenge, the report said, with nearly 70 percent of India’s water contaminated, impacting three in four Indians and contributing to 20 percent of the country’s disease burden.

Yet only one-third of its wastewater is currently treated, meaning raw sewage flows into rivers, lakes and ponds - and eventually gets into the groundwater.

The head of WaterAid India VK Madhavan said the country’s groundwater was now heavily contaminated.

“We are grappling with issues, with areas that have arsenic contamination, fluoride contamination, with salinity, with nitrates,” he said, listing chemicals that have been linked to cancer.

The level of chemicals in the water was so high, he said, that bacterial contamination – the source of water-borne diseases such as diarrhoea, cholera and typhoid - “is in the second order of problems”.

Crippling water problems could shave 6 percent off India’s gross domestic product, according to the report by the government think-tank, Niti Aayog.

“This 6 percent of GDP is very much dependent on water. Our industry, our food security, everything will be at stake,” said Mishra.

“It is a finite resource. It is not infinite. One day it can (become) extinct,” he said, warning that by 2030 India’s water supply will be half of the demand."

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on July 10, 2018, 02:21:55 AM
With India's population growth, past and future, catching up with the water problem is and will be extremely difficult.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Martin Gisser on July 10, 2018, 03:10:43 AM
With India's population growth, past and future, catching up with the water problem is and will be extremely difficult.
If not impossible. The old classic, known since the first civilization collapse (was it Aristotle or Plato who already noted?). Forget Syria and Yemen. Things will get much worse.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 26, 2018, 08:31:57 PM
Florida:  Your flood insurance premium is going up again, and that’s only the beginning
Quote
FEMA confirmed to the Miami Herald that it is looking into switching to risk-based pricing in 2020, which would end the subsidies most coastal communities enjoy on their flood insurance premiums and show the true dollar cost of living in areas repeatedly pounded by hurricanes and drenched with floods — like South Florida.

“That means insurance is about to become very expensive, and it kind of sounds the bell that these are high-risk areas,” said Wayne Pathman, a Miami-based land use attorney and chair of the city’s Sea Level Rise Committee.
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article215162440.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on July 26, 2018, 09:21:29 PM
If FEMA does actually switch to risk-based insurance with no subsidies it could make a big difference to climate change and SLR awareness in the US.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 26, 2018, 09:52:08 PM
If FEMA does actually switch to risk-based insurance with no subsidies it could make a big difference to climate change and SLR awareness in the US.

I wonder how many times FEMA has to threaten to do it, before it actually happens — or at least, begins a phase-in period. 
Also, how much of the decision to start in 2020 might be politically motivated?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 27, 2018, 09:11:30 AM
This has been making rounds. Yeah, New Scientist - a popular science magazine - people have been consulted. Maybe we could critique it, but is it too much wrong.? Obvious errors can be found, as this apparently incorporates effects from different time periods to a single map, but are there many non-obvious errors? Many of these are on a bit of an extreme side, but as the map won't say if it's 2150 or 2450 are there any effects that may be stated totally impossible? Can f.e. the region of equator be totally devoid of life as the itcz probably will still work gathering moisture there?
https://mobile.twitter.com/patrickgaley/status/1021406315095232512
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on July 27, 2018, 12:25:21 PM
This has been making rounds. Yeah, New Scientist - a popular science magazine - people have been consulted. Maybe we could critique it, but is it too much wrong.? Obvious errors can be found, as this apparently incorporates effects from different time periods to a single map, but are there many non-obvious errors? Many of these are on a bit of an extreme side, but as the map won't say if it's 2150 or 2450 are there any effects that may be stated totally impossible? Can f.e. the region of equator be totally devoid of life as the itcz probably will still work gathering moisture there?
It doesn't "feel" right at all but what do I know?
I can say the "solar energy belt" seems unnecessarily huge, and the concept of high rise cities in West Antarctica is very dubious climatically regardless of the melted glaciers.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 27, 2018, 12:39:05 PM
This has been making rounds. Yeah, New Scientist - a popular science magazine - people have been consulted. Maybe we could critique it, but is it too much wrong.? Obvious errors can be found, as this apparently incorporates effects from different time periods to a single map, but are there many non-obvious errors? Many of these are on a bit of an extreme side, but as the map won't say if it's 2150 or 2450 are there any effects that may be stated totally impossible? Can f.e. the region of equator be totally devoid of life as the itcz probably will still work gathering moisture there?
It doesn't "feel" right at all but what do I know?
I can say the "solar energy belt" seems unnecessarily huge, and the concept of high rise cities in West Antarctica is very dubious climatically regardless of the melted glaciers.
Yep, that's one that should be at the furthest end of the timeline. As could be making the vast northern areas fertile enough for all the population. Said to a friend who presented this that my map would be quite different and I should check for the years from the indivudual studies, but he said this could work as a conversation starter. That I do agree.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 27, 2018, 07:57:42 PM
If FEMA does actually switch to risk-based insurance with no subsidies it could make a big difference to climate change and SLR awareness in the US.

It will quickly drive a halt to development in flood prone coastal areas while simultaneously driving down the values of property. The financial impact will be onerous.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2018, 06:35:14 PM
“Living in South Florida in the summer and not having the beach as option is not a great place to be.”

Red tides in the Gulf of Mexico and toxic blue-green algae in inland waters are killing animals and stoking outrage in South Florida.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/toxic-red-tide-making-floridians-sick-angry-n897181
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on August 09, 2018, 06:05:17 PM
A disaster in the making, India's water crisis will be historic.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/india-water-crisis/feature-indias-worst-water-crisis-in-history-leaves-millions-thirsty-idUKL8N1TM2XR

“This 6 percent of GDP is very much dependent on water. Our industry, our food security, everything will be at stake,” said Mishra.."

This is the stupidity and near-sightedness of standard economics, its not 6% its 100%, as people cannot live without water. There is then everything that is not priced in the market (such as human lives) as well all the assets that will be destroyed (GDP is a measure of activity not assets).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: A-Team on August 09, 2018, 06:25:12 PM
Quote
Patagonia ...That's actually the number one place I'd go to if I was serious about homesteading/Preparing for the apocalypse. But I'm not willing to leave Europe
No need to leave Europe, as Europe will follow you there to Patagonia (which is scarcely inhabited now because the climate is miserable). It was a temperate rainforest 52,000,000 years ago though. The best of both worlds! Over 4,000 varieties of potatoes can be grown!

https://www.sciencealert.com/52-million-year-old-relative-of-potatoes-and-tomatoes-discovered-in-patagonia

I am in Tucson AZ for rest of the summer as wildfire smoke and heat have settled into the rest of the western US for the next six weeks. The heat and humidity here are intolerable day and night but as we like to say, Phoenix is much worse. We have roof-top solar AC and a not-so-refreshing outdoor pool at 35º, the same as our city tap water. We provide water for wild animals in the back yard; they are struggling terribly with the heat and lack of rainfall/food.

Nearby we have Biosphere II, a far-sighted venture of Texan billionaires, an alternative to spacesuits and more aligned with Bezos' orbiting spaceships around Earth Nat'l Park. Neither will be affordable to the masses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosphere_2

Quote
Southern California is currently witnessing record warm ocean waters, which is one of the reasons why the state just had its warmest July on record as it continues to feel the heat. A large ridge of high pressure has been a recurring feature over the western US this summer.  It has also helped limit the development of low-level clouds on the coast, allowing for more direct sunlight to warm the ocean.

The warm waters also result in higher humidity in the region, since there is more water vapor present in the atmosphere.

At Scripps Pier in La Jolla, California, sea surface temperatures have been monitored daily since 1916, providing over a century of data for the location. This makes it one of the world’s longest ocean time series and the longest on the Pacific Rim.

After accomplishing a record warm water temperature just off the Southern California coast this past July, a new all-time record was just accomplished on August 8, measuring at 79.34 degrees Fahrenheit.

http://weatheroptics.net/record-warm-waters-takeover-southern-california/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 21, 2018, 06:53:20 PM
It's no news to anyone here that sea level rise is affecting coastal communities.  But the WaPo has a good article with some specifics and human examples:

Sea level rise is eroding home value, and owners might not even know it
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/sea-level-rise-is-eroding-home-value-and-owners-might-not-even-know-it/2018/08/20/ff63fa8c-a0d5-11e8-93e3-24d1703d2a7a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8dab803d8fec&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/sea-level-rise-is-eroding-home-value-and-owners-might-not-even-know-it/2018/08/20/ff63fa8c-a0d5-11e8-93e3-24d1703d2a7a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8dab803d8fec&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1)

"Last month, the nonprofit First Street Foundation released the first analysis to single out Charleston, a gracious port city founded in 1670. The analysis suggests that exposed homes in Charleston have lost $266 million in value since 2005 because of coastal flooding and expectations of still higher seas. (Using the same method, the First Street researchers found a $465 million loss in Miami-Dade County.)"

As always, the poor will suffer the worst, potentially stuck with homes that are both literally and figuratively under water.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on August 21, 2018, 11:32:20 PM
The paper in Journal of Financial Economics referenced in the WaPo article is

"Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise" by Bernstein et al. Alas, no doi, but it is at

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073842

From the conclusion:

"We find average discounts of approximately 7% of the home value during our 2007 - 2016 sample period, with properties not projected to be inundated until the end of the century experiencing more than a 4% discount. Our evidence further suggests that this discount is driven by non-owner occupiers, who we argue and provide evidence are more sophisticated investors. Within this market segment, the average SLR exposure discount is approximately 10% and has increased over time, coinciding with the release of new scientific evidence on the extent and timing of ocean encroachment. Among buyers who we argue are less sophisticated (i.e., owner occupiers), we find that the SLR exposure discount varies at the county level by the degree to which inhabitants are worried about the effects of climate change: with more worried areas impounding a significant discount and unworried areas demanding no concessions for SLR exposure."

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Martin Gisser on August 22, 2018, 01:10:58 AM
So, when is the Miami housing bubble going to pop? I fear that could start/amplify another financial crisis.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 22, 2018, 01:24:33 AM
So, when is the Miami housing bubble going to pop? I fear that could start/amplify another financial crisis.

I would anticipate gradually accelerating deflation of the bubble.  Lots of money is likely available to try to stave off the inevitable.  This may give many a false sense of security.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on August 22, 2018, 07:33:43 AM
As the chief economist for freddie mac pointed out in 2016, the panic doesn't start when the hurricane/flooding hits. It starts when the first guy on the block sells at reduced price.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on August 22, 2018, 01:23:45 PM
As the chief economist for freddie mac pointed out in 2016, the panic doesn't start when the hurricane/flooding hits. It starts when the first guy on the block sells at reduced price.

sidd


Freddie Mac (2016)

 "One challenge for housing economists is predicting the time path of house prices in areas likely to be impacted by climate change. Consider an expensive beachfront house that is highly likely to be submerged eventually, although "eventually" is difficult to pin down and may be a long way off. Will the value of the house decline gradually as the expected life of the house becomes shorter? Or, alternatively, will the value of the house—and all the houses around it—plunge the first time a lender refuses to make a mortgage on a nearby house or an insurer refuses to issue a homeowner's policy? Or will the trigger be one or two homeowners who decide to sell defensively?" 


Several large insurers will not sell home owners insurance in my neighborhood. Yet homes sell at market value and they sell quickly. I was astounded as the home directly next door sold at an inflated price without central air-conditioning.  Folks generally speaking, refuse to believe SLR will effect their ability to sell or the value of their homes.  What I see is a public that is not aware and does not care to be. As one person said at the Town Hall meeting concerning a grant to build a Sea Wall "I've lived here for 60 yrs, it's never flooded before and it never will.

bligh
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Juan C. García on August 22, 2018, 01:40:57 PM
A story on the Washington Post:

Quote
CHARLESTON, S.C. — Elizabeth Boineau’s 1939 Colonial sits a block and a half from the Ashley River in a sought-after neighborhood of ancient live oaks, charming gardens and historic homes. A year ago, she thought she could sell it for nearly $1 million. But after dropping the price 11 times, Boineau has decided to tear it down.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/sea-level-rise-is-eroding-home-value-and-owners-might-not-even-know-it/2018/08/20/ff63fa8c-a0d5-11e8-93e3-24d1703d2a7a_story.html?utm_term=.1bf021c0fc53&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/sea-level-rise-is-eroding-home-value-and-owners-might-not-even-know-it/2018/08/20/ff63fa8c-a0d5-11e8-93e3-24d1703d2a7a_story.html?utm_term=.1bf021c0fc53&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 22, 2018, 07:37:05 PM
A story on the Washington Post:

Quote
CHARLESTON, S.C. — Elizabeth Boineau’s 1939 Colonial sits a block and a half from the Ashley River in a sought-after neighborhood of ancient live oaks, charming gardens and historic homes. A year ago, she thought she could sell it for nearly $1 million. But after dropping the price 11 times, Boineau has decided to tear it down.

Yes, a very good article, which I cited and quoted just above.  ;-)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 23, 2018, 01:58:54 AM
As the chief economist for freddie mac pointed out in 2016, the panic doesn't start when the hurricane/flooding hits. It starts when the first guy on the block sells at reduced price.

sidd

Homeowners will be in possession of an underwater mortgage long before they own an underwater house. This is especially true for current buyers who choose not to be informed about climate change. If you want to retire to Florida, rent.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2018, 04:18:04 PM
Looking in more detail, at individual houses rather than neighborhoods.
”The Northeast [U.S.] data has been consistent with previous data from the South, a surprise for the team.”

Study Finds Billions of Dollars in Home Value Lost to Rising Sea Levels
Quote
Rather than looking at the neighborhood as a whole, flooding was measured on the basis of individual properties. They offer predictions for future flood risk and home value change up to 2033—which shows that some properties with no history of flooding are at risk, and homeowners stand to lose millions of dollars.

Previous studies have forecasted changes in home values in the future, but by using historical records and taking such a fine-grained approach, the team was able to show for the first time that housing markets have already started showing the effects of rising sea levels.

“This is the very beginning indicator that sea level rise and flooding is having an economic impact, and that the market is responding to it,” said Matthew Eby, executive director of First Street Foundation.

And the decline in home values doesn’t just come from houses getting flooded. In addition to house lots, they also looked at the elevation of each road and its exposure to nearby bodies of water. Nearby flooding of roads can impact house prices because it affects commutes and mobility, said Jeremy Porter, professor of sociology at the City University of New York, lecturer in environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, and academic data consultant at First Street Foundation.

The Northeast data has been consistent with previous data from the South, a surprise for the team. Over half of the top 20 affected cities and zip codes are in the Northeast. “The exposure of the New Jersey shore is incredible,” McAlpine said. “It takes you back a little bit when you look at Ocean City and see how many homes are regularly dealing with flooding.” ...
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/study-finds-billions-of-dollars-in-home-value-lost-to-rising-sea-levels/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: CDN_dude on August 25, 2018, 04:29:01 PM
A freshwater shortage crisis in an unusual place. Iqaluit could soon run out of water: https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/they-re-in-a-crisis-mode-iqaluit-could-run-out-of-water-as-early-as-this-year-1.4067036
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on August 28, 2018, 11:44:06 AM
CALIFORNIA - Not so much "Apocalypse Now" as "Apocalypse Tomorrow".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/27/california-climate-change-report-wildfires-jerry-brown

'Apocalyptic threat': dire climate report raises fears for California's future
Statewide assessment, which comes amid summer of extreme wildfires, warns of deadly cost if climate change is not stopped

Quote
California’s summer of deadly wildfires and dangerous heatwaves will soon be the new normal if nothing is done to stop climate change, a report released on Monday warns.

City heatwaves could lead to two to three times as many deaths by 2050, the report says. By 2100, without a reduction in emissions, the state could see a 77% increase in the average area burned by wildfires. The report also warns of erosion of up to 67% of its famous coastline, up to an 8.8F rise in average maximum temperatures, and billions of dollars in damages.

“These findings are profoundly serious and will continue to guide us as we confront the apocalyptic threat of irreversible climate change,” said the state’s governor, Jerry Brown, in a tweet about the report, the fourth statewide climate change assessment released since 2006.

Rising temperatures could lead to up to 11,300 additional deaths in 2050, the report says, and the overall number of days marked by extreme heat will “increase exponentially in many areas”.

Read the report at http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-StatewideSummary.pdf
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on August 29, 2018, 10:29:51 AM
Who needs AGW when direct action based on human greed can do it so much faster?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/19/guatemala-fight-for-land-water-defenders-lmining-loging-eviction
How Guatemala is sliding into chaos in the fight for land and water
Quote
At 9am on 9 May, Luis Arturo Marroquín walked out of a shop in the main square of the small town of San Luis Jilotepéque in central Guatemala. Eyewitnesses say a black Toyota Hilux pick-up then drove up and, in full view of passersby, two men wearing hoods shot Marroquín repeatedly in the back.

The vehicle sped off but was identified and, within hours, police had stopped and reportedly questioned the men and found the weapons. But since then, no arrests have been made or charges levelled and the investigation has stalled.

Marroquín was a Q’eqchi’ Mayan, and a leader of Codeca, a group of indigenous farmers now gaining political ground by defending people from evictions, land grabs and pollution resulting from mines, hydro dams, logging, and huge palm oil and sugar cane developments.

He is one of 18 human rights and indigenous “defenders” to have been murdered so far this year in a wave of rural violence. Of these, 13 were involved in land conflicts and nine were Codeca leaders. Two were journalists investigating disputes and of the seven people killed in the month following Marroquín’s death, one died in a church, another was rammed by a truck and a third was murdered while doing the shopping. Others were stabbed or hacked to death. Few people have been arrested, let alone convicted........

......A history of conflict
Guatemala’s largely indigenous population say their rights have been violated since the Spanish arrived in the 16th century, dispossessing their communities and driving them into the less fertile highlands.

Guatemala gained independence in 1821 and there followed a century of struggle between liberals and US-backed conservatives. In 1954 the CIA deposed leftwing president Jacobo Árbenz to protect the interests of America’s United Fruit Co, whose presence had led to the country being seen as a “banana republic”.

Rebellion followed and in 1960 a brutal 36-year civil war began. This saw about 200,000 largely indigenous people killed by the military, and hundreds of thousands of people migrating to the US.

A peace agreement in 1996 should have led to land redistribution, but a handful of powerful families still dominates the economy, and Guatemala remains one of the world’s least equal and most violent countries, with the largest 2.5% of farms occupying more than 65% of the land.

Economic integration forced on Guatemala by the US and global bodies have further opened the country to foreign-backed mining, hydro and other extractive industries, forcing more evictions of indigenous peoples and leading to more violence and inequality.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on August 29, 2018, 11:19:24 AM
Who needs AGW when direct action based on human greed can do it so much faster? #2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/27/iraq-is-dying-oil-corruption-protest-basra

'Iraq is dying': oil flows freely but corruption fuels growing anger

Locked out of polluting wealth beneath their feet, those calling for an end to a ‘rotten system’ risk detention and death

Quote
The opening up of Iraq’s enormous verified oil reserves to foreign expertise in the aftermath of the fall of Saddam Hussein was hailed as the means to kickstart its economy and potentially transform the south into an economic stronghold. Instead, ordinary Iraqis have seen little or no benefit from the proceeds of the country’s multibillion-dollar oil industry, much of which has been siphoned off by corrupt politicians. Across the south in recent months, simmering anger over corruption and unemployment has been fuelled by the dire state of public services, regular power cuts and water shortages.

Read the rest if you wish - but it is the same old story.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on August 30, 2018, 12:17:15 AM
Who needs AGW when direct action based on human greed can do it so much faster? #3

NIGER - Mining Uranium for France's sustainable environmentally friendly Nuclear Power..
Posted by BlueSky
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg170245/topicseen.html#msg170245

e,g,
Quote
In 2014, Greenpeace conducted soil, water, and air tests in Airlit and Akokan, located just a few kilometers from the mines. The samples were studied in collaboration with the France-based Research and Independent Information on Radioactivity Commission (CRIRAD). The findings were disturbing: “The analysis we have performed show that the uranium contamination in four out of five water samples exceeds World Health Organization safety limits,” according to Bruno Chareyron, an engineer in Nuclear Physics from CRIRAD. “We found evidence of radon, a radioactive gas dissolved in water and also chemical elements. Regrettably, this poisoned water is still being distributed to the population and the workers for consumption.”
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 05, 2018, 07:36:50 PM
And it want be the only place i think.

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-08-16-lake-mead-reservoir-concerns
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on September 25, 2018, 12:30:35 PM
There is a series of articles in the Guardian on climate refugees in the US of A. Here is the first one. Loads more to be found on https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-change

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/24/americas-era-of-climate-mass-migration-is-here

'We're moving to higher ground': America's era of climate mass migration is here
By the end of this century, sea level rises alone could displace 13m people. Many states will have to grapple with hordes of residents seeking dry ground. But, as one expert says, ‘No state is unaffected by this’

Quote
“I don’t see the slightest evidence that anyone is seriously thinking about what to do with the future climate refugee stream,” said Orrin Pilkey, professor emeritus of coastal geology at Duke University. “It boggles the mind to see crowds of climate refugees arriving in town and looking for work and food.”

Pilkey’s new book – Sea Level Rise Along Americas Shores: The Slow Tsunami – envisions apocalyptic scenes where millions of people, largely from south Florida, will become “a stream of refugees moving to higher ground”.

“They will not be the bedraggled families carrying their few possessions on their backs as we have seen in countless photos of people fleeing wars and ethnic cleansing, most recently in Myanmar and Syria,” Pilkey states in his book. “Instead, they will be well-off Americans driving to a new life in their cars, with moving trucks behind, carrying a lifetime of memories and possessions.”

Dejected with frigid New York winters, Chase Twichell and her husband purchased a four-bedroom apartment in Miami Beach in 2011, with the plan of spending at least a decade basking in the sunshine. At first, keeping a pair of flip-flops on hand to deal with the flooded streets seemed an acceptable quirk, until the magnitude of the encroaching seas became apparent when the city spent $400m to elevate streets near Twichell’s abode.

Twichell began to notice water pumps were spewing plastic bags, condoms and chip packets into the bay. Friends’ balconies started getting submerged. Twichell, a poet, found apocalyptic themes creeping into her work. Last year, she sold the apartment to a French businessman and moved back to upstate New York.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on September 25, 2018, 01:49:22 PM
Quote
“They will not be the bedraggled families carrying their few possessions on their backs as we have seen in countless photos of people fleeing wars and ethnic cleansing, most recently in Myanmar and Syria,” Pilkey states in his book. “Instead, they will be well-off Americans driving to a new life in their cars, with moving trucks behind, carrying a lifetime of memories and possessions.”
I think a time will come when the system is overwhelmed and the U.S. climate refugee stream becomes a forced mass exodus, with no one to buy the houses making up most of these Americans' wealth, local and state goverments bankrupt and subsidized federal flood insurance no longer available to spread the costs.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sebastian Jones on September 25, 2018, 04:32:07 PM
The linked article addresses the climate refugees soon to come from....New Jersey:
"Everybody—from seasonal beach people and water sports enthusiasts to the Shore’s million or so year-round residents and retirees—are starting to realize that it’s only a matter of time before the ocean rises again to inundate the coast"
https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/letting-go-paradise/ (https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/letting-go-paradise/)
Pilkey is a source for this article too.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on September 25, 2018, 07:59:37 PM
Posts on climate refugees are being placed on this thread and "sea-level rise, the social cost of carbon".

Maybe "climate refugees" needs a thread all of its own, as it is going to get worse, not better, and the causes will be (amongst others?):-
- sea level rise,
- floods from hurricanes and storms,
- drought and heat.

i.e. "places becoming unlivable" become "places unlivable".
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 25, 2018, 08:20:11 PM
If your population grows from 40 million to 200 million in 60 years, we can not talk about climate refugees. They are overpopulation refugees. But are they not responsable for that themself ?Even today many of their leaders are calling to get more children, like Erdogan. Are we not fooled by our western leaders. Over here in the capital city, already 1 in 4 companies is from illegal/criminal origine. They don't pay taxes, they bribe everybody, they make fortunes with human trafficing, drugs, weapons, hormons.... You can't just cover all of that under the name climate refugees.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 26, 2018, 03:24:15 AM
If your population grows from 40 million to 200 million in 60 years, we can not talk about climate refugees. They are overpopulation refugees. But are they not responsable for that themself ?Even today many of their leaders are calling to get more children, like Erdogan. Are we not fooled by our western leaders. Over here in the capital city, already 1 in 4 companies is from illegal/criminal origine. They don't pay taxes, they bribe everybody, they make fortunes with human trafficing, drugs, weapons, hormons.... You can't just cover all of that under the name climate refugees.

An impressive stream of drivel.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 26, 2018, 07:19:46 AM
People like you ruined this entire planet shared humanity, with your globalist , open border spirit. So keep your wise useless words for yourself.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Jim Pettit on September 26, 2018, 01:17:07 PM
Play nice, guys. It's entirely possible to make your point without resorting to childish ad hominems. I know that can be both fun and cathartic, but it's ultimately unproductive. Hell, it's counterproductive. So please act likes adults, and treat this forum with respect, or at least more than you reserve for, say, 4chan. Thanks!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 26, 2018, 01:52:46 PM
Even a simple family visit takes thousands of miles of travelling these days , with families spread across the entire planet more and more every day. So what's the point of talking about climate change if that's what you are promoting. Today hundreds of airports are under construction.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 26, 2018, 02:24:54 PM
There may be "hundreds of airports ... under construction", but Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_under_construction) lists 29.  Many people on these threads appreciate documentation of claims.  What is your source, Alexander?  With documentation, you can update that wiki article, for everybody's benefit.

By the way, 29 is too many, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 26, 2018, 02:41:40 PM
Last year it were 900 airports being build new, or extentions to old airports. I will see this evening if i can find the information.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 26, 2018, 02:54:54 PM
I will take a deeper look at it this evening, but you will find the numbers in something like this. Q2 2018 800 billions of construction costs.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/global-airport-construction-review-2q2018-usd803-billion-costs-412850
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on September 26, 2018, 04:32:21 PM

Jennifer A. Francis et al, North American weather regimes are becoming more persistent: Is Arctic amplification a factor? (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080252), Geophysical Research Letters (2018)

Abstract
Rapid Arctic warming is hypothesized to favor an increased persistence of regional weather patterns in the northern hemisphere [Francis and Vavrus 2012]. Persistent conditions can lead to drought, heatwaves, prolonged cold spells, and storminess that can cost millions of dollars in damage and disrupt societal and ecosystem norms. This study defines a new metric called long‐duration events (LDEs) ‐‐ conditions that endure at least 4 consecutive days ‐‐ and takes two independent approaches to assessing seasonal changes in weather‐pattern persistence over North America. One applies precipitation measurements at weather stations across the United States; the other is based on a cluster analysis of large‐scale, upper‐level atmospheric patterns. Both methods indicate an overall increase in LDEs. We also find that large‐scale patterns consistent with a warm Arctic exhibit an increased frequency of LDEs, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor persistent weather patterns that can lead to weather extremes.

Plain Language Summary
Rapid Arctic warming and sea‐ice loss are expected to affect weather patterns around the northern hemisphere. An increased persistent of weather regimes is one hypothesized impact. Long‐lasting weather conditions can lead to destructive extreme events, such as droughts, prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, and flooding. This study uses daily precipitation measurements across the United States, as well as daily large‐scale atmospheric patterns over the eastern Pacific and North America, to assess changes in weather‐regime persistence, and whether any changes are associated with a rapidly warming Arctic. We find an increased frequency in long‐lived patterns in recent decades, especially those with abnormally warm high latitudes, suggesting that further Arctic warming may favor an increase in extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

(https://i.pinimg.com/474x/88/16/03/881603d16d16f0f22b657dfbf105826a.jpg)

Scientists at Rutgers University-New Brunswick and the University of Wisconsin-Madison examined daily precipitation data at 17 stations across the U.S., along with large upper-level circulation patterns over the eastern Pacific Ocean and North America.

Overall, dry and wet spells lasting four or more days occurred more frequently in recent decades, according to the study published online today in Geophysical Research Letters. The frequency of persistent large-scale circulation patterns over North America also increased when the Arctic was abnormally warm.

"While we cannot say for sure that Arctic warming is the cause, we found that large-scale patterns with Arctic warming are becoming more frequent, and the frequency of long-duration weather conditions increases most for those patterns," said Francis, who works in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences.

The results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm and melt, it's likely that long-duration events will continue to occur more often, meaning that weather patterns—heat waves, droughts, cold spells and stormy conditions—will likely become more persistent, she said.

"When these conditions last a long time, they can become extreme events, as we've seen so often in recent years," she said. "Knowing which types of events will occur more often in which regions and under what background conditions—such as certain ocean temperature patterns—will help decision-makers plan for the future in terms of infrastructure improvements, agricultural practices, emergency preparedness and managed retreat from hazardous areas."

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-persistent-weather-patterns-linked-arctic.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 26, 2018, 04:37:31 PM
I find it interesting that "hundreds of airports under construction" meant (in my mind) "hundreds of new airports..."  Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if 30% of all airports (and 90% of commercial airports) have an area or two that are "under construction" during any given year, of course much of that will be terminal development and infrastructure repair.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 26, 2018, 06:39:06 PM
There are more than 40 000 airports on this planet, big and small ones. The US has 13 000, and India with a population almost 4 times bigger has 360 airports. So you can be sure we are talking about hundreds of new airports.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2053.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Alexander555 on September 26, 2018, 06:46:05 PM
What surprised me a little bit, is the number 800 billion in 3 months. If you take the new airport in Istanbul. Construction costs are estimated at 7 billion, for 150 million passengers a year. With that 800 billion they add capacity for 17 billion passengers in 3 months. No idea where they are going to get the planes from .So besides an ecological disaster it's probably also a financial bubble.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul_New_Airport
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on September 27, 2018, 05:43:08 AM
Guardian series on climate migrants in the USA :

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/series/americans-the-next-climate-migrants

Very worth reading.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on October 04, 2018, 06:59:32 PM
I feel like one morning we are going to wake up and the headlines will read about how thousands of South Floridians *didn't* wake up that day as they suffocated and died during sleep when a red tide bloom hit critical mass and wafted over coastal neighborhoods.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article219477125.html

What is the alternative? The blooms are now creeping toward Miami. They are getting worse over time. Large marine mammals are dying. So how long until they hit a point where humans are also overcome? With many experiencing respiratory issues as-is, things are not looking great.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on October 05, 2018, 03:29:25 AM
Everyone thinks they are not going to be climate migrants. When the Arctic collapses most people will be climate migrants.

I honestly think that Trump's wall will be used in reverse.  The summer heat in the inner north american continent will be deadly.  The winters will bury people with snow. At least for a few years after a BOE the tropics will be safer, or maybe the mid southern hemisphere.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on October 05, 2018, 12:50:19 PM
Another collapsing fishery. ...

Fish dwindle in the traditionally rich waters of Tanzania – in pictures
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2018/oct/05/fish-dwindle-traditionally-rich-waters-tanzania-kivukoni-dar-es-salaam-in-pictures

In Kivukoni fish market, the port city of Dar es Salaam boasts a thriving economic enterprise. But diminishing catches means demand outstrips supply.


Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on October 05, 2018, 02:48:10 PM
Meanwhile, Tanzania's president says women using birth control are too 'lazy' to feed a family (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/tanzania-president-john-magufuli-birth-control-lazy-feed-family-a8534316.html)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on October 06, 2018, 10:38:18 PM
Everyone thinks they are not going to be climate migrants. When the Arctic collapses most people will be climate migrants. I honestly think that Trump's wall will be used in reverse.  The summer heat in the inner north american continent will be deadly.  The winters will bury people with snow. At least for a few years after a BOE the tropics will be safer, or maybe the mid southern hemisphere.

Could not agree with you more, one day probably not that far away, we are going to be watching this in real time. Although we already get buried in snow up here in Canada (a lot less than in the 80's and 90's) so we may need a bit of wall building too. Eastern Canada will be completely chaotic with Hansen's storms of his grandchildren, and the mid-west will probably look like the Grapes of Wrath but the Great Lakes and British Columbia may be able to adapt.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 06, 2018, 10:47:33 PM
BC and Alberta share an awfully long border.  Will Mexico pay for the wall?
 ::) :P :-\ :'(
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on October 09, 2018, 12:54:40 AM
Betting on climate change:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/climate-change-will-get-worse-these-investors-are-betting-on-it

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 28, 2018, 04:28:16 PM
UK
Rising sea levels will claim homes around English coast, report warns
Third of coastline cannot be affordably protected, government climate change advisers say, with current plans ‘not fit for purpose’
Quote
Rising sea levels will claim homes, roads and fields around the coast of England, the government’s official advisers have warned, and many people are unaware of the risks they face.
The new report from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) said existing government plans to “hold the line” in many places – building defences to keep shores in their current position – were unaffordable for a third of the country’s coast. Instead, the CCC said, discussions about the “hard choices” needed must be started with communities that will have to move inland.
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/26/rising-sea-levels-will-claim-homes-around-english-coast-report-warns

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, US
They Know Seas Are Rising, but They’re Not Abandoning Their Beloved Cape Cod
Quote
"It flooded in early January, and then it happened again two or three months later," says Matt Teague of Barnstable, Mass., about the slew of storms that hit Cape Cod in the winter of 2017. "We're like, what are we doing here?" he says, opening his arms skyward.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23102018/cape-cod-sea-level-rise-trump-voters-climate-change-questions-science-based-coastal-building-codes

Florida
Climate Change Flooding In Rick Scott’s Florida Is Now Routine — Even As He Denies Its Cause
It’s not just “red tide” that’s plaguing the Florida governor’s run for Senate. “King tides” caused by rising sea levels are flooding southeast Florida every autumn.
Quote
Michelle DeLeon lives on Lincoln Road just a block from the bay, meaning the water gets to her building first. Her garage has a special plastic barrier installed to keep water out. Sandbags are piled in the building’s foyer, and a small notice on the bulletin board lists all the coming high tides. “The word on our street? This is Lincoln Lake,” she said.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rick-scott-florida-flooding-climate-change-king-tides_us_5bd391dfe4b0a8f17ef7a626

Canada
Here's what climate change could look like in Canada
Quote
In July 2018, Montreal experienced 70 heat-related deaths as the city dealt with unusually hot temperatures into the 30s with stifling humidity that made it feel closer to 40 C. This summer, British Columbia experienced its worst fire season on record. In August, two brief thunderstorms caused widespread flooding in Toronto, bringing the downtown core to a standstill.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/climate-change-canada-1.4878263
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on October 30, 2018, 12:39:17 PM
It seems that non-human life is continuing to find this planet less livable.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds

Humanity has wiped out 60% of animal populations since 1970, report finds


https://www.zsl.org/global-biodiversity-monitoring/indicators-and-assessments-unit/living-planet-index


Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: DrTskoul on October 30, 2018, 11:54:43 PM
And China just removed the ban for use of rhino horns and tiger bones in traditional medicine.... Fuck traditional medicine...
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on October 31, 2018, 02:35:12 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46029302


Venice under water as deadly storms hit Italy

"Italy has been battered by fierce winds and rain which have left 11 people dead in the west and north, while schools and tourist sites closed in several regions amid fears for people's safety.

" Winds of up to 180km/h (110 mph) were reported, and two tornadoes ripped through the centre of the coastal town of Terracina, killing one person and leaving 10 others injured.
In the canal city of Venice, rising floodwaters overwhelmed many of its famed squares and walkways, with officials saying as much as 75% of the city is now submerged."

Related event:
(The Rapallo Sea Wall was washed away last night)

https://www.gazzettadiparma.it/video/gallery/548533/scenario-apocalittico-a-rapallo-strage-di-yacht-berlusconi-compreso.html

Sea Wall Collapsing

http://www.ansa.it/liguria/notizie/2018/10/30/-maltempo-mareggiata-fa-strage-yacht-a-porto-rapallo-_91ffc13a-ee35-4207-9a0f-87b003c2a825.html

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 03, 2018, 12:30:30 AM
4 wounded, shooter dead at Tallahassee yoga studio on Thomasville Road (https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2018/11/02/shooting-tallahassee-yoga-studio-injuries-reported/1862893002/)
This happened nowhere near where we live or work (although near where my wife occasionally eats), but it does make the place less livable.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on November 03, 2018, 03:43:14 PM
It seems that non-human life is continuing to find this planet less livable.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds

Humanity has wiped out 60% of animal populations since 1970, report finds


https://www.zsl.org/global-biodiversity-monitoring/indicators-and-assessments-unit/living-planet-index

As if we needed telling? yes, we do, again and again and again.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/03/stop-biodiversity-loss-or-we-could-face-our-own-extinction-warns-un

Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN
The world has two years to secure a deal for nature to halt a ‘silent killer’ as dangerous as climate change, says biodiversity chief

Quote
The world must thrash out a new deal for nature in the next two years or humanity could be the first species to document our own extinction, warns the United Nation’s biodiversity chief.

Ahead of a key international conference to discuss the collapse of ecosystems, Cristiana Pașca Palmer said people in all countries need to put pressure on their governments to draw up ambitious global targets by 2020 to protect the insects, birds, plants and mammals that are vital for global food production, clean water and carbon sequestration.

“The loss of biodiversity is a silent killer,” she told the Guardian. “It’s different from climate change, where people feel the impact in everyday life. With biodiversity, it is not so clear but by the time you feel what is happening, it may be too late.”

A picture worth a thousand words. The dark soil - I think it is peat, goodbye CO2 sink, hullo CO2 emitter.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on November 03, 2018, 03:59:31 PM
It looks like the Guardian is trying to wake up the world - will it reach the places where the people who presume to govern us live?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/03/the-most-intellectual-creature-to-ever-walk-earth-is-destroying-its-only-home

'The most intellectual creature to ever walk Earth is destroying its only home'
Introducing the Guardian’s new series The Age of Extinction, the renowned primatologist describes the dramatic vanishing of wildlife she has witnessed in her lifetime – and how we can all play a vital role in halting its destruction

Read the article - please.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: litesong on November 03, 2018, 10:54:42 PM
Increasing forest fires searing the U.S.:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires

Half-way down the above article, is a graph of the yearly acreage burned with super-imposed anomalous temperatures during those years. Never seen such before & very interesting.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sleepy on November 04, 2018, 06:19:34 AM
Earth.
https://zoom.earth/#-9.632194,9.766815,globe,2018-11-01 (https://zoom.earth/#-9.632194,9.766815,globe,2018-11-01)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Red on November 12, 2018, 11:12:56 AM

Experts are warning that Britain risks sleepwalking into a health crisis unless the government massively invests in public information on air pollution.

Findings released last week by Clean Air Day, the country’s largest air quality campaign, revealed that people respond well when given accurate information and the means to do something about air pollution.

But this is little comfort - according to the charity behind the research - unless the government commits to an information campaign to match the scale of the problem

https://theecologist.org/2018/nov/12/air-pollution-crisis-needs-ambitious-health-campaign
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Red on November 12, 2018, 11:16:10 AM

Young European entrepreneurs are participating in the Copernicus AtmosHack – a competition to come up with ideas that could help to reduce people’s exposure to atmospheric pollution and UV radiation. Participants base their innovations on freely available data from the EU’s Copernicus Programme.

This data includes observations from Copernicus and EUMETSAT satellites, ground-based air quality data, and air quality analyses and forecasts produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), implemented by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).

The hackathon, organised by Ultrahack, takes place in Helsinki on 16-18 November.

https://theecologist.org/2018/nov/12/hacking-atmosphere
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Red on November 17, 2018, 12:11:44 PM
Competition for shrinking window of low salinity groundwater

Abstract

Groundwater resources are being stressed from the top down and bottom up. Declining water tables and near-surface contamination are driving groundwater users to construct deeper wells in many US aquifer systems. This has been a successful short-term mitigation measure where deep groundwater is fresh and free of contaminants. Nevertheless, vertical salinity profiles are not well-constrained at continental-scales. In many regions, oil and gas activities use pore spaces for energy production and waste disposal. Here we quantify depths that aquifer systems transition from fresh-to-brackish and where oil and gas activities are widespread in sedimentary basins across the United States. Fresh-brackish transitions occur at relatively shallow depths of just a few hundred meters, particularly in eastern US basins. We conclude that fresh groundwater is less abundant in several key US basins than previously thought; therefore drilling deeper wells to access fresh groundwater resources is not feasible extensively across the continent. Our findings illustrate that groundwater stores are being depleted not only by excessive withdrawals, but due to injection, and potentially contamination, from the oil and gas industry in areas of deep fresh and brackish groundwater.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae6d8/meta
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on November 17, 2018, 02:49:14 PM
Threat to USA Grain Harvests - depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer. I have been watching this for over 20 years.

http://duwaterlawreview.com/crisis-on-the-high-plains-the-loss-of-americas-largest-aquifer-the-ogallala/
Quote
The grain-growing region in the High Plains of America—known as America’s breadbasket—relies entirely on the Ogallala Aquifer. But long term unsustainable use of the aquifer is forcing states in the region to face the prospect of a regional economic disaster.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2018, 08:41:58 PM
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 19, 2018, 11:47:13 PM
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: aperson on November 20, 2018, 12:44:15 AM
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.

This is a completely ridiculous claim. Cite your sources. I expect you'll find it quite hard to find this view among insurers at large, rather there are some very restricted domains where this is the case.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 20, 2018, 01:37:09 AM
Places becoming less livable ?

Where Sterks lives !  ;D

Aluminium, is it not possible to make it a little bit bigger ? So that we can see what happens east end west of greenland .
I don't want to change area. Any area may be a little bit bigger. Current size is convenient for me and includes main part of the Arctic Ocean.

November 14-18.
No problem. I block you until June. Your now irrelevant half a mega is currently inconvenient for me when loading the page. Merry Christmas and happy 2019!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 21, 2018, 05:49:29 PM
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.

This is a completely ridiculous claim. Cite your sources. I expect you'll find it quite hard to find this view among insurers at large, rather there are some very restricted domains where this is the case.

Ridiculous?  Find me an insurance company that does NOT charge based on risk!  Anyone that does not accurately base their premiums on the risk of payout, will probably be out of business soon.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 21, 2018, 06:04:46 PM
A little here to support "Insurance companies base rates on past experience" and a little to support "Insurance companies base rates on future expectations not represented by past experience":

Climate Change Is Forcing the Insurance Industry to Recalculate (https://www.wsj.com/graphics/climate-change-forcing-insurance-industry-recalculate/)
Wall Street Journal - Published Oct. 2, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. ET
Quote
Insurers are at the vanguard of a movement to put a value today on the unpredictable future of a warming planet


The effects of the planet’s slow heating are diffuse. Predictions of the fallout are imprecise, and the drivers are debated. But faced with the prospect of a warming planet, the world of business and finance is starting to put a price on climate change.

For the most part, insurers are acting on climate change by building models that aim to better estimate the impact. That leaves the industry with the tough question of how to reflect in premiums the new understandings of the underlying risk.


For most insurers, rates aren’t rising—yet. A flood of capital into the industry from pension and hedge-fund investors, driven by low interest rates, has increased competition and pushed down property-catastrophe reinsurance prices in the past decade.

And property insurance and reinsurance contracts typically last one year, so an insurer can recalibrate yearly as risks change. “Global warming may be occurring. Probably is,” says Warren Buffett, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has a major reinsurance business. “But it hasn’t hurt the reinsurance industry. And people are pricing still as if it won’t, on a one-year basis.”

If reinsurance contracts covered 30 years, he says, “I’d be crazy not to” include the risks.
...
Big insurers are expanding teams of in-house climatologists, computer scientists and statisticians to redesign models to incorporate the effect of the warming earth on hailstorms, hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. Insurers such as Swiss Re Group say hurricanes like Harvey and Florence, which caused widespread flooding, could represent a more common occurrence in the coming decades.

Climate change may be gradual, but the effects are volatile, meaning a company could become exposed to a large, unexpected hit if it doesn’t understand the changing risks, says Junaid Seria, head of catastrophe-model research and development and governance at Paris-based reinsurer Scor SE.
...
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: aperson on November 21, 2018, 10:36:52 PM
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

This seems rather irrelevant.  Insurance charge based on risk.  That risk is based largely on past settlements.  They are the least forward looking of companies.

This is a completely ridiculous claim. Cite your sources. I expect you'll find it quite hard to find this view among insurers at large, rather there are some very restricted domains where this is the case.

Ridiculous?  Find me an insurance company that does NOT charge based on risk!  Anyone that does not accurately base their premiums on the risk of payout, will probably be out of business soon.

Yes, the idea is that they charge based on risk. Effective insurers look at risk rates by modeling the future as well as modeling the past. Why would you expect otherwise?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 21, 2018, 10:44:49 PM
The big insurers have already cut back insuring property in Florida due to risks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/11/business/irma-florida-homeowner-insurance.html

The only reason homeowners can get insurance at all is because Florida has passed laws to subsidize the small companies that are still in the market.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/13/the-strange-story-of-how-floridas-lawmakers-subsidized-hurricane-insurance/?utm_term=.c9dcd520186d
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 21, 2018, 10:50:11 PM
If you want a solid picture of how screwed homeowners are in Florida due to the increased risk posed by climate change, here is a good sampling of informative articles.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sfl-insurance-storygallery.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 21, 2018, 11:15:10 PM
Tor,
Nice post.  With annual premium changes, insurers are not exposed to long term changes in risk.  Yes, they are hiring experts to analyze trends in claims due to climatic changes.  But, this is still mostly based on past incidents.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on November 21, 2018, 11:30:17 PM
AIG: Total Assets: $498 Billion.
https://rctom.hbs.org/submission/aig-underwriting-the-risk-of-climate-change/

Quote
On May 15, 2006, American International Group (“AIG”) became the first U.S. insurance company to publicly address climate change as a risk and formally outline its corporate policy and programs regarding the issue. As a leading provider of Property and Casualty (“P&C”) insurance in the U.S., AIG is directly exposed to the risk of insured losses resulting from severe weather. According to Allianz, one of AIG’s competitors, “climate change stands to increase insured losses from extreme events in an average year by 37 per cent within just a decade”[2]. Given this threat, the players in this market have focused on limiting their financial exposure to high-risk areas, either by canceling or not renewing policies or by increasing deductibles, reducing limits, and adding new exclusions to policies.

Swiss Re: Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd, generally known as Swiss Re, is a reinsurance company based in Zurich, Switzerland. It is the world’s second-largest reinsurer. Total Assets: $222 Billion
http://www.swissre.com/eca/our_climate_change_strategy.html

Quote
As a major global reinsurer, Swiss Re has had a major role in the climate change debate for over two decades. 

 For a reinsurer, climate change constitutes a key risk because it can lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes such as floods, storms, excessive rainfall and drought. In combination with growing asset concentrations in exposed areas and more widespread insurance protection, this will cause a rise in losses.

Since detecting the long-term threat posed by climate change more than 20 years ago, we have been an acknowledged thought leader on the topic. 

Munich Re: Munich Re Group or Munich Reinsurance Company.. It is one of the world’s leading reinsurers.
https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/climate-change.html

Quote
For more than 40 years, Munich Re has been dealing with climate change and the related risks and opportunities for the insurance industry. Our approach to coping with this challenge is holistic and based on the following pillars: risk assessment – insurance solutions – asset management

Like aperson said:
Quote
... Find me an insurance company that does NOT charge based on risk!  Anyone that does not accurately base their premiums on the risk of payout, will probably be out of business soon.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sleepy on November 22, 2018, 06:21:44 AM
https://www.afr.com/business/insurance/climate-change-on-track-to-make-world-uninsurable-iag-20181115-h17xu5 (https://www.afr.com/business/insurance/climate-change-on-track-to-make-world-uninsurable-iag-20181115-h17xu5)
Quote
This week 16 of the world's biggest insurers, including IAG and QBE, launched an initiative with the United Nations to develop new risk assessment tools in an effort to make insurance accessible and affordable.

Participating insurers, which also include AXA, Allianz and Swiss Re, will work with climate scientists to develop a better understanding of the new and unpredictable weather events resulting from climate change.

The focus of the initiative is on responding to climate change, rather than preventing it. However, Ms Johnson said the future of insurance depended upon limiting global temperature rises, which could only be achieved by a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

"We have been very vocal [on the fact that] something will have to change because you cannot continue to have the carbon emissions and think that the world will be insurable," she said.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 22, 2018, 08:54:01 PM
Another obstacle to the “efficient” solution of housing more people in cities rather than less-dense areas.

Why affordable housing is scarce in progressive cities
Quote
Plenty of factors can explain the crisis of housing affordability plaguing U.S. cities—a shortage of new construction, a lack of tenant protection, greedy developers and speculators, or a lack of upzoning. But according to San Francisco-based housing activist Randy Shaw, author of Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America, one of the true challenges is the entrenched power and privilege of an older generation of homeowners.
https://www.curbed.com/2018/11/16/18098432/rent-housing-affordable-generation-priced-out
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on November 23, 2018, 09:47:34 PM
The USA (along with everywhere else)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/americans-will-pay-billions-more-for-climate-change-and-that-s-the-best-case?srnd=politics-vp
Americans Will Pay Billions More For Climate Change, and That’s the Best Case
A grim U.S. government assessment of global warming’s economic impacts gives a whole new meaning to Black Friday.

Quote
The Trump administration just published a major report documenting the advance of climate change, weeks earlier than expected and on a day many Americans are occupied with family and holiday shopping. The news is predictably bad, but this time the tally comes with a pricetag—one significantly larger than you’ll find at the mall.

The report catalogs the observed damage and accelerating losses projected from a climate now unmoored from a 12,000-year period of relative stability. The result is that much of what humans have built, and many of the things they are building now, are increasingly unsuited for the world as it exists.

And it’s not just the effects at home. “The impacts of climate change, variability, and extreme events outside the United States are affecting and are virtually certain to increasingly affect U.S. trade and economy, including import and export prices and businesses with overseas operations and supply chains,” the authors write.

....a best case-scenario will still leave Americans in a country where they are paying tens of billions of dollar more annually to address the fallout of accelerating climate change. A scenario with dramatically less pollution could slash projected losses in 2090 by 48 percent ($75 billion) a year in labor costs, 58 percent ($80 billion) in heat-related deaths and 22 percent ($25 billion) in coastal real estate, according to the report.
THE REPORT
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: dnem on November 24, 2018, 12:06:28 AM
Perhaps this should go in the Conservative Scientists thread, but I found this prediction in the new US government climate report to be an absolute joke (as reported in the NY Times):

"A major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States, predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming, the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end."

Ok, let's assume the report guesses that the economy would grow by 2% a year for the rest of the century, if not for climate change.  That would take our current $20 trillion economy to around $100 trillion by 2100.  So, they are saying that rather than $100 trillion, it's only going to grow to $90 trillion, which equates to a 1.85% growth rate.  Please, what an absolute farce!  For starters, anyone who thinks they can predict the economic growth rate to the level of precision is deluded. Who here thinks the US economy will more than quadruple in size this century?  "If significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming" the global economy will collapse this century, not grow by 2, or 1.85%. This whole "by 2100" BS has got to go.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on November 24, 2018, 12:15:14 AM

This whole "by 2100" BS has got to go.

I agree.
Trouble is, the whole IPCC edifice is still built on models and policies looking forward to..... 2100
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on November 24, 2018, 01:45:03 AM
Predicting temps by 2100 is easier, predicting economics is harder, but an economic collapse by 2100, or much earlier, is virtually certain IMHO, and I agree with dnem - this starkest warning to date is a joke. A sad one.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 24, 2018, 02:22:45 AM
There will be no market economy in 2100 as we now know it.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on November 24, 2018, 04:23:26 AM
There will be no market economy in 2100 as we now know it.
BBR's guide to the world in 2100:

I think any populated regions without strong state control are probably headed for chaos, especially where fertility levels are still high. I would think these regions are also the most likely situations where nuclear weapons could be used. Basically like 1984, but with a rapid onset ice age, and an actual vestige of western civilization remaining in Oceania (although the authoritarian governments are also probably going to be "western"-style remnants outside of China, Japan, and Thailand -- I could see the US re-colonizing most of South America with puppet governments and brute force if need be).

The regions I expect "least change" through 2100 are Oceania, and South America, which is already trending towards fascism (so it has less to lose, lol). Spain, Italy, and the Turks are probably Europe's best bet, and all have historical bents towards strong government. I think Thailand could also be best-positioned out of Asian governments for continuity and stability. Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Iran, most of the Middle East, and Africa are all likely to be destabilized by lack of food, riots, and regional nuclear warfare.

The US may retain a similar population and area but that's only because it will invade Central America and northern South America outright for warmer climes as the situation up north becomes dire. Russia will similarly have to relocate to eastern Siberia, its only region buffered by the Pacific's deep warmth. China should be OK since they are good at purging large %s of their population (historically).

I think this is why the last book from GGRM is not forthcoming. Winter is almost here!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tony Mcleod on November 24, 2018, 06:05:19 AM

 "...a rapid onset ice age..."


Really? From misguided geo-engineering presumably.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on November 24, 2018, 06:34:31 AM

 "...a rapid onset ice age..."


Really? From misguided geo-engineering presumably.
IMO it will be due to Greenland-induced negative feedbacks but that works too!  8)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: dnem on November 24, 2018, 09:52:38 PM
The New York Times has doubled down on the idiocy of its coverage of the new US government climate report.  This from a follow up article headlined "The World Needs to Quit Coal. Why Is It So Hard?":

"Scientists have repeatedly warned of its looming dangers, most recently on Friday, when a major scientific report issued by 13 United States government agencies warned that the damage from climate change could knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end if significant steps aren’t taken to rein in warming."

JFC! A 10% reduction in the size of the US economy in 82 years is the most notable "looming danger" they can come up with???!  Mind boggling.  Incompetent.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on November 24, 2018, 10:13:10 PM
The New York Times has doubled down on the idiocy of its coverage of the new US government climate report.  This from a follow up article headlined "The World Needs to Quit Coal. Why Is It So Hard?":

"Scientists have repeatedly warned of its looming dangers, most recently on Friday, when a major scientific report issued by 13 United States government agencies warned that the damage from climate change could knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end if significant steps aren’t taken to rein in warming."

JFC! A 10% reduction in the size of the US economy in 82 years is the most notable "looming danger" they can come up with???! Mind bogglingIncompetent.


Yes - but then again it's from the pages of the NYT :)
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on November 24, 2018, 11:02:49 PM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on November 25, 2018, 12:15:00 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 25, 2018, 12:18:51 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?

It is his raison d'etre.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 25, 2018, 12:20:40 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

And in your head, I have no doubt it will happen.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Human Habitat Index on November 25, 2018, 01:47:09 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

BBR I'm surprised that you are so optimistic that we will be around in 2100.

IMHO even 2030 is optimistic.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on November 25, 2018, 02:00:33 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

BBR I'm surprised that you are so optimistic that we will be around in 2100.

IMHO even 2030 is optimistic.


Is that we as a species, or we as a culture?
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Wherestheice on November 25, 2018, 05:42:49 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

Let me know when the ice age comes :P
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Human Habitat Index on November 25, 2018, 05:49:43 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).


BBR I'm surprised that you are so optimistic that we will be around in 2100.

IMHO even 2030 is optimistic.


Is that we as a species, or we as a culture?
Terry

Species, all the trends are one way and showing signs of exponentiality.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Human Habitat Index on November 25, 2018, 05:54:52 AM
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

Let me know when the ice age comes :P

Hot or cold doesn't matter, it's about how changes affect mass food production.

Wavy jetsteams cause persistent or "stuck" weather systems.

The day the world stopped is the day the weather stopped.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Red on December 01, 2018, 11:40:42 AM
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/03/ipbes-land-degradation-environmental-damage-report-spd/
MEDELLIN, COLOMBIAMore than 75 percent of Earth’s land areas are substantially degraded, undermining the well-being of 3.2 billion people, according to the world’s first comprehensive, evidence-based assessment. These lands that have either become deserts, are polluted, or have been deforested and converted to agricultural production are also the main causes of species extinctions.

If this trend continues, 95 percent of the Earth’s land areas could become degraded by 2050. That would potentially force hundreds of millions of people to migrate, as food production collapses in many places, the report warns. (Learn more about biodiversity under threat.)

“Land degradation, biodiversity loss, and climate change are three different faces of the same central challenge: the increasingly dangerous impact of our choices on the health of our natural environment,” said Sir Robert Watson, chair of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), which produced the report (launched Monday in Medellin, Colombia).

IPBES is the "IPCC for biodiversity"—a scientific assessment of the status of non-human life that makes up the Earth’s life-support system. The land degradation assessment took three years and more than 100 leading experts from 45 countries.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2018, 03:47:45 PM
CAL FIRE Chief says 1) some areas should be off-limits to housing, 2) citizens should be prepared to shelter in place, 3) the agency is having a "sea change" about prescribed fire, 4) firefighters are "living climate change"

Cal Fire chief: State must mull home ban in fire-prone areas
Quote
Cal Fire Director Ken Pimlott will leave his job Friday after 30 years with the agency. In an interview with The Associated Press, he said government and citizens must act differently to protect lives and property from fires that now routinely threaten large populations.

That may mean rethinking subdivisions in thickly forested mountainous areas or homes along Southern California canyons lined with tinder-dry chaparral. Los Angeles County supervisors on Tuesday were considering whether to allow a 19,000-home development in fire-prone mountains amid heavy criticism of the location's high fire danger.

California residents should also train themselves to respond more quickly to warnings and make preparations to shelter in place if they can't outrun the flames, Pimlott said.

Communities in fire zones need to harden key buildings with fireproof construction similar to the way cities prepare for earthquakes, hurricanes or tornadoes, and should prepare commercial or public buildings to withstand fires with the expectation hundreds may shelter there as they did in makeshift fashion when flames last month largely destroyed the Sierra Nevada foothills city of Paradise in Northern California. ...
https://www.kcra.com/article/cal-fire-chief-state-must-adapt-to-new-wildfire-norm/25475297

Cross-posted from Wildfires thread
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 15, 2018, 12:52:58 AM
U.S.:  South Carolina

Rain floods parts of Charleston area, more expected for afternoon commute
Quote
The downpours moved in before daylight. By late morning, areas from Johns Island to northern Mount Pleasant had collected between 2 and 3 inches of rain, easily shattering a daily record at the Charleston International Airport.
...
For the fourth time this year, Summerville shelter Dorchester Paws closed its doors to deal with 5 to 9 inches of standing water that flooded the facility’s parking lot and yards. The kennel scrambled to find temporary fosters. ...
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/rain-floods-parts-of-charleston-area-more-expected-for-afternoon/article_9f07b11a-ff99-11e8-88ef-cf93e3d05b70.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on December 17, 2018, 04:09:12 AM
Tehran Is Sinking Dangerously
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-12/ggph-wti120618.php

Quote
Iran has a water problem. The reserves in many groundwater basins there have been severely depleted. For the last forty years, the country has invested a lot in the agricultural sector and has been striving to be independent in its food supply. In order to cover the increased water demand, groundwater basins have been exploited to a considerable extent in a hardly state-regulated way.

In addition, the government built a lot of dams to store water for specific purposes, particularly in agriculture. However, this restricted the natural inflow into the country's groundwater basins in the downstream, in turn contributing to desertification and serious environmental issues like shrinkage of Lake Urmia, the world's second-largest salt lake in northwest Iran, and frequent dust and sand storms in recent years in the Khuzestan province in the southwest.

In the region around Tehran, the capital city of eight million inhabitants, the demand for water has also risen sharply due to the influx of many new inhabitants over the last four decades. The number of wells there rose from just under 4000 in 1968 to more than 32.000 in 2012. In addition, there was a lack of rainfall in periods of drought, which have occurred more frequently in recent years. All of this has greatly lowered the groundwater level - in Tehran, for example, by twelve meters between 1984 and 2011

(https://media.eurekalert.org/multimedia_prod/pub/web/187823_web.jpg).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on December 18, 2018, 08:26:01 PM
Disaster-Linked Losses in 2018 Hit $155 Billion: Swiss Re 
https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-disaster-linked-losses-billion-swiss.html

Quote
... Events this year "highlight the increasing vulnerability of the ever-growing concentration of humans and property values on coastlines and in the urban-wildlife interface."

Overall, the figures served as a reminder that "extreme weather conditions can quickly turn into catastrophe," the company said.

Among the major events causing damage this year were hurricanes Michael and Florence, a series of typhoons in Asia and the recent California wildfires.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on January 01, 2019, 02:32:41 AM
A billion plus people wanna move:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/12/31/pers-d31.html

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: TerryM on January 01, 2019, 03:57:06 AM
That's a powerful link sidd. It points out that immigrants are now being attacked from the left as well as the political right.
If peace should somehow break out, perhaps in Syria or Afghanistan, at least some of the newly migrant might be happy to return to the homes they fled.


I've developed my own prejudice's ever since my fearless (and feckless?) leader made noises about welcoming the White Helmets and their families to Canada.


Have a wonderful new year sidd
Terry
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on January 01, 2019, 05:48:39 AM
The climate crises will bite harder every year, and accompanying instability and great power games. Spare a thought tonight for those hapless folk ground under the juggernaut.

A good new year to you, TerryM.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bligh8 on January 01, 2019, 05:58:24 PM
For 2018:

Annual: As of December 29th, statewide annual precipitation is 63.25”

NJ’s statewide annual precipitation averages 46.36”.

100 days with winds gusting to 40 mph or higher (2017 had 89). Of these, 25 had gusts of at least 50 mph (2017 had 34).

Yesterday it was 62DegF, heavy rain and windy into last night so the above will change.

From <https://www.njweather.org/content/top-ten-new-jersey-weather-and-climate-events-2018>

The rain interfered with outside work mostly in March, April & May…& high temps limited summer time outside heavy work into September.

The above remark was garnered from conversations with large construction products suppliers
across Monmouth county.

Bligh

And of course....best to all in the coming year


Edit:
     Coastal flooding
        Minor to moderate coastal flooding with beach erosion, road flooding and some structural damage occurred most notably on January 3rd–4th, March 2nd, March 12th–14th, March 20th–22nd, September 7th–10th, October 27th, and November 16th.
        The most substantial flooding of the year occurred on the morning of the 27th. The water level of 7.70’ in Atlantic City was the 13th highest in well over 75 years of record. The 8.77’ water level at Sandy Hook (Monmouth) was the 12th highest in over 75 years of record.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on January 01, 2019, 06:20:11 PM
A billion plus people wanna move:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/12/31/pers-d31.html

sidd
Thank goodness for our thousands of nuclear weapons and the two great oceans between this continent and Eurasia.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 01, 2019, 09:41:05 PM
Tallahassee, Florida had a very wet December and therefore a wet 2018.  Of real note is the loss (from climatic normal) of heating degree days (99 - about 25% down) and the extra cooling degree days (497 - about 20% up). NOAA records (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=tae)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on January 01, 2019, 10:11:19 PM
A billion plus people wanna move:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/12/31/pers-d31.html

sidd

Yet, there is no mention of climate refugees.  I wonder how this compares to those who migrated during the early part of the 20th century.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Grubbegrabben on January 02, 2019, 02:03:11 AM
A billion plus people wanna move:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/12/31/pers-d31.html

sidd
Thank goodness for our thousands of nuclear weapons and the two great oceans between this continent and Eurasia.

From the study: "...desire is also up significantly in Northern America, where 14% want to migrate after years of remaining flat near 10%. This is almost entirely driven by increases in the U.S. in 2016 and 2017. The one in six Americans (16%) in 2017 who said they would like to move to another country is the highest measure to date...". Yeah, nuke yourselves out. Thanks ;-)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on January 10, 2019, 10:39:04 PM
Miami in a world of shit: widespread septic tank failure

"  By 2040, 64 percent of county septic tanks (more than 67,000) could have issues every year "

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article224132115.html

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on January 18, 2019, 12:41:17 PM
One Heatwave Killed 'a Third' of a Bat Species in Australia   
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46859000

Over two days in November, record-breaking heat in Australia's north wiped out almost one-third of the nation's spectacled flying foxes, according to researchers.

The animals, also known as spectacled fruit bats, were unable to survive in temperatures which exceeded 42C.

Lead researcher Dr Justin Welbergen, an ecologist, believes the "biblical scale" of deaths could be even higher - as many as 30,000 - because some settlements had not been counted.

Australia had only an estimated 75,000 spectacled flying foxes before November, according to government-backed statistics.

"This sort of event has not happened in Australia this far north since European settlement," says Dr Welbergen.

Dr Welbergen says about 10,000 bats of another species - black flying foxes - succumbed to the heat during the same two-day period.

--------------

Australia Heatwave: Overnight Minimum of 35.9C In Noona Sets New Record 
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/18/australia-heatwave-sydneys-west-to-hit-45c-after-week-of-extreme-weather

-----------------

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46886798

Australia has just sweltered through at least five of its 10 warmest days on record, authorities estimate.

A section of highway connecting Sydney and Melbourne started to melt. Bats fell dead from the trees, struck down by the heat.

On the northern Great Barrier Reef, 99% of baby green sea turtles, a species whose sex is determined by temperature, were found to be female.

In outer suburban Sydney, the heat hit 47.3C (117F) before a cool change knocked it down - to the relative cool of just 43.6C in a neighbouring suburb the following day.

Scenes from a sci-fi novel depicting a scorched future? No, just the first days of 2018 2019 in Australia, where summer is in fierce form

( Thanks TB)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on January 20, 2019, 01:53:07 AM
Three months ago Insurance Journal informed that ratings agencies are doing exactly what they did before the housing crash: Nothing

"Last fall, after a trio of deadly hurricanes, ratings companies warned vulnerable coastal cities to get ready for climate change — or face higher borrowing costs ... Twelve months, two catastrophic storms and thousands of credit ratings later, those companies have yet to downgrade a single city because of climate change. "

“I don’t know how anyone can look at the last two years of catastrophic damage from severe weather in communities all across America and suggest with a straight face that we have our risks under control.”

"no cities or counties have been penalized ... despite warnings from disaster experts about the widespread failure of local governments to meaningfully prepare for the growing risks of global warming. Meanwhile, many of the cities and counties most exposed to the effects of climate change have received perfect ratings over the past year."

"In May, Fitch and Moody’s both issued triple-A ratings to Wilmington, North Carolina. Four months later, Wilmington, which was flooded by Hurricane Matthew in 2016, was inundated again by Hurricane Florence, causing more than $250 million in damage ..."

"Moody’s and Fitch gave AAA ratings to Ocean County, New Jersey, which according to the research group First Street is home to the zip code that has lost more in relative property value than anywhere else in the country ..."

"Moody’s and S&P issued perfect ratings to Palm Beach, Florida, a narrow barrier island where $1.3 billion in property value is less than two feet above sea level ..."

Read the whole thing:

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/11/05/506538.htm

Whatever could go wrong with this fine plan ? This masterly inaction ?

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Human Habitat Index on January 20, 2019, 04:58:30 AM
They got their finger in the dyke, if they degrade one area, others must follow possibly causing a downward spiral in the housing market and negative feedback into the insurance industry.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on January 20, 2019, 02:06:24 PM
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 20, 2019, 02:27:33 PM
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.

???

The home insurance industry has been all but wiped out in the state of Florida due to dramatically rising claim rates. Insurance companies are in the business of making money. Climate change is making that more difficult.

The major impact that climate change will have in a capitalist country like the U.S. will first be seen in the insurance industry and banks and anyone who owns property that is at risk due to AGW should expect their property values to collapse. We are all just going to have to deal with it.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on January 20, 2019, 07:27:35 PM
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.

???

The home insurance industry has been all but wiped out in the state of Florida due to dramatically rising claim rates. Insurance companies are in the business of making money. Climate change is making that more difficult.

Yet, that is not what has occurred in the state of Florida. 

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.fox13news.com/news/florida-news/analysts-florida-insurers-have-sufficient-reserves-to-pay-claims

Be careful not to spread misinformation to bolster your belief.  It may just backfire.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on January 20, 2019, 08:46:08 PM
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.

???

The home insurance industry has been all but wiped out in the state of Florida due to dramatically rising claim rates. Insurance companies are in the business of making money. Climate change is making that more difficult.

Yet, that is not what has occurred in the state of Florida. 

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.fox13news.com/news/florida-news/analysts-florida-insurers-have-sufficient-reserves-to-pay-claims

Be careful not to spread misinformation to bolster your belief.  It may just backfire.

I had a look and what did I find. An article suggesting it is the mortgage industry that could be in the biggest trouble from extreme weather events and climate change in general.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/16/potential-for-foreclosure-crisis-because-of-climate-change-is-real.html

Quote
The mortgage industry isn’t ready for a foreclosure crisis created by climate change
KEY POINTS
- The threat to real estate from increasingly extreme weather brought on by climate change is clear, but the threat to the nation’s mortgage market is only beginning to come into focus.
- In Hurricane Harvey’s federally declared disaster areas, 80 percent of the homes had no flood insurance, because they weren’t normally prone to flooding.
- Serious mortgage delinquencies on damaged homes jumped more than 200 percent, according to CoreLogic.

ps: Most insurance companies hedge their risks through companies like Swiss-Re. I did read that one or two small insurance companies went belly-up from a surge in claims caused by recent events through failing to do this.
pps; The Insurance regulator in Florida has had a go at insurance companies dragging their heels about coughing up the loot on outstanding claims. Perhaps one or two more are in trouble from failing to hedge their bets. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on January 20, 2019, 11:25:47 PM
That would not surprise me.  Especially, if home owners opt not to purchase hurricane insurance.  The holder of the mortgage would then be on the hook.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 21, 2019, 02:11:39 AM
Brock Nanson:  “They actually did add colors. I have to question whether the country will eventually become unlivable. Excessive heat and droughts on an already dry land. There's a limit to what it can realistically support.”

Simon Donner: "Australia has to keep adding colours to its temperature maps. Pretty soon it'll just be a flame emoji.”
https://twitter.com/simondonner/status/1086709179400761345
Image below.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Archimid on January 21, 2019, 02:25:05 PM
About insurance.

 If they are underestimating the risks to manipulate the housing market they will pay for it. Well maybe not them, but someone will. The math that worked so well to make billions by taking risk can't be cheated forever.

Just as a reminder :

Quote
Warren Buffett‘s Berkshire Hathaway shareholders voted overwhelmingly against a shareholder proposal to create a report citing the climate-change risks for its insurance companies.

Buffett, the so-called “Seer of Omaha” for his company’s S&P-beating returns, said he doesn’t think climate change creates serious risks for Berkshire’s insurance business and also refused to make a public statement in favor of reducing fossil-fuel use.


They are also blinding themselves.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 21, 2019, 04:25:12 PM
Warren Buffet, who I have always admired, has just fallen way down on my list of people who I care to listen to.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: oren on January 21, 2019, 11:17:05 PM
Warren Buffet, who I have always admired, has just fallen way down on my list of people who I care to listen to.
+1
When a (well known and successful) long term investor willfully ignores the longest trend coming up fast on the horizon, you know somethng's horribly wrong.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2019, 04:50:59 PM
“We don't know how to move people with deep roots.  I mean that's the emotional, spiritual, social and cultural level.  We have to figure out how to do that because there's other communities that are deep rooted and as leaders we have to figure out how to do that good, and right.”

The Feds are spending $48 million to move his village. But he doesn't want to go.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/11/us/louisiana-climate-relocation-weir-wxc/index.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: mitch on February 17, 2019, 05:25:49 PM
Warren Buffett is 88 years old, and has reached the stretch where he has a certain decrease in his skills and fossilization of his point of view. From an investment point of view the time horizon is on the order of 2-5 years, not 50.  You can be right about the issues 50 years from now and lose your shirt tomorrow.

I agree however that he is not taking climate change seriously enough.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on February 19, 2019, 08:53:50 AM
Bergman at guardian on florida real estate: money, money, money

"Miami streets will flood every year by 2070."

" luxury condominiums going up in flood-prone South Beach, and property values rising in the vulnerable Keys, post-Hurricane Irma ... a culture of “systemic, fraudulent nondisclosure” "

"low-income neighborhoods like Little Haiti are rising in value and under pressure from developers because of their higher ground ... raising the rents, forcing renters onto month-to-month leases ... "

“I’m worried we’re one bad storm away from a rush for the exits,”

 “great fishing”

" a significant percentage of at-risk properties are owned by people of color."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/15/florida-climate-change-coastal-real-estate-rising-seas

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on February 20, 2019, 09:13:34 PM
This has Poisoned Everything’ – Pollution Casts Shadow Over New Mexico’s Booming Dairy Industry
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/20/new-mexico-contamination-dairy-industry-pollution

For months, Clovis, New Mexico, dairy farmer Art Schaap has been watching his life go down the drain. Instead of selling milk, he is dumping 15,000 gallons a day – enough to provide a carton at lunch to 240,000 children. Instead of working 24/7 to keep his animals healthy, he’s planning to exterminate all 4,000 of his cows, one of the best herds in his county’s booming dairy industry.

The 54-year-old second-generation dairy farmer learned last August that his water, his land, his crops – even the blood in his body – were contaminated with chemicals that migrated to his property from nearby Cannon air force base.

The toxins, collectively known as PFAS, have caused rampant pollution on military installations, something the Department of Defense (DoD) has known about for decades but routinely failed to disclose. Now New Mexico’s dairy industry is ground zero in an unprecedented crisis. For the first time ever, PFAS is threatening the US food supply.

They have poisoned the groundwater at 121 military bases across the US, the DoD disclosed in 2018.
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2018/04/26/dod-126-bases-report-water-contaminants-harmful-to-infant-development-tied-to-cancers/

(https://www.gao.gov/extracts/c60dbb6195263ee8624acbed2eaa1e32/rId16_image4.png)
GAO identified 401 installations with known or potential releases of these chemicals
https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-18-700T

Schaap’s dairy is ground zero, but this may soon change. The toxic plume is spreading slowly and inexorably – not only under Schaap’s fields but across the Ogallala Aquifer, the largest aquifer in the nation, which spans 174,000 miles and parts of eight states.

Though the NMED has known of the threat since at least 2017, it neglected to contact the community and its many dairy farmers. Milk was bought and sold, crossed state lines, mixed with that from other dairies, and consumed in vast quantities before Schaap’s Highland Dairy was informed of a problem.

When the air force finally tested Schaap’s water on 28 August 2018, it was found to be so polluted that the military immediately began delivering bottled water to the family home. One of Schaap’s wells tested at 12,000 parts per trillion, or 171 times the EPA health advisory level of 70 ppt.

The EPA on 14 February announced its intention to regulate the chemicals by year’s end, but the agency’s plan does not include immediate cleanup actions and has been widely criticized as foot-dragging.

The agency has failed for 20 years to regulate PFAS or any other new hazardous substance for drinking water, advocates have noted. In 2016, it issued a “lifetime health advisory” for PFOA and PFOS, recommending that individual or combined concentrations of the chemicals in drinking water should be no greater than 70 ppt.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 21, 2019, 03:03:01 PM
JFC!
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: longwalks1 on February 21, 2019, 05:41:52 PM
Above, yea.  Quick look at how it PFA's "work" in vitro,  nothing worthwhile via adding cytochrome p-450 ( liver enzyme) to search, I am starting with

https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/environment/solid-waste/documents/esos/sw_esos-13_2018-05-16-1540-jones.pdf

Also - places becoming less livable - maybe the AAAS itself. 

https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/02/21/with-monsanto-and-glyphosate-on-the-run-aaas-revokes-award-to-scientists-whose-studies-led-to-ban-on-weedkiller-in-sri-lanka-and-other-countries/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on February 21, 2019, 08:38:18 PM
Shared Humanity, longwalks1 - Back in 80-90's I worked as an environmental and forensic toxicologist and we investigated the human exposure from PFOA by Dupont's Teflon manufacture. I can tell you without reservation, that if your reading this, you have measurable levels of PFOA and PFAS in your bloodstream.

Here is some background on Perfluoroalkyl Sulfonates (PFAS) and Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) - a precursor of Teflon, two of the thousands of Toxic Perfluoroalkyl Substances in our environment ...

PFAS chemicals still exist in the environment because they are not easily broken down or degraded. They are toxic, persistent (stable) and can bioaccumulate in organisms.

PFAS contamination is often found near sites where it was produced or used by industries and on military bases. PFAS contaminants are water-soluble and easily infiltrate the soil into groundwater (ATSDR 2017) and find their way into adjacent waters.

When humans and other animals consume water or food containing PFAS, these chemicals can remain in the body for many years after exposure (Bruton and Blum 2017). The ATSDR (ATSDR 2017) has reviewed multiple studies and identified possible effects from exposure to PFAS in water and food, including effects on growth, developmental effects to fetuses, interferences with hormones, increases in cholesterol and immune system effects. Exposure can also lead to increased risk of liver, kidney and testicular cancer. In animals, potential health effects may include renal and liver toxicity, cancer, immune suppression, reproductive and developmental effects and mortality and delayed development of offspring (Bruton and Blum 2017).

Think DDT squared

A Must Read: The Lawyer Who Became DuPont’s Worst Nightmare
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/magazine/the-lawyer-who-became-duponts-worst-nightmare.html

Quote
Just months before Rob Bilott made partner at Taft Stettinius & Hollister, he received a call on his direct line from a cattle farmer. The farmer, Wilbur Tennant of Parkersburg, W.Va., said that his cows were dying left and right. He believed that the DuPont chemical company, which until recently operated a site in Parkersburg that is more than 35 times the size of the Pentagon, was responsible. Tennant had tried to seek help locally, he said, but DuPont just about owned the entire town. He had been spurned not only by Parkersburg’s lawyers but also by its politicians, journalists, doctors and veterinarians.

DuPont purchased a 66 acre property from the Tennants rechristed Dry Run Landfill, named after the creek that ran through it. The same creek flowed down to a pasture where the Tennants grazed their cows. Not long after the sale, Wilbur told Bilott, the cattle began to act deranged.

Quote
... ‘‘I’ve taken two dead deer and two dead cattle off this ripple,’’ Tennant said. ‘‘The blood run out of their noses and out their mouths. ... They’re trying to cover this stuff up. ... The video shows a large pipe running into the creek, discharging green water with bubbles on the surface. ‘‘This is what they expect a man’s cows to drink on his own property,’’

Bilott watched the video and looked at photographs for several hours. He saw cows with stringy tails, malformed hooves, giant lesions protruding from their hides and red, receded eyes; cows suffering constant diarrhea, slobbering white slime the consistency of toothpaste, staggering bowlegged like drunks. Tennant always zoomed in on his cows’ eyes. ‘‘This cow’s done a lot of suffering,’’ he would say, as a blinking eye filled the screen.

‘‘This is bad,’’ Bilott said to himself. ‘‘There’s something really bad going on here.’’

... ‘‘I started seeing a story,’’ Bilott said. ‘‘I may have been the first one to actually go through them all [the evidence]. It became apparent what was going on: They had known for a long time that this stuff was bad.’’

Bilott could not believe the scale of incriminating material that DuPont had sent him. The company appeared not to realize what it had handed over. ‘‘It was one of those things where you can’t believe you’re reading what you’re reading,’’ he said. ‘‘That it’s actually been put in writing. It was the kind of stuff you always heard about happening but you never thought you’d see written down.’’ ...
It gets better ... :'(

-----------------------------------

PFAS Levels at NJ Base 24,000 Times Higher Than Proposed Fed Standard — Study
https://www.njspotlight.com/stories/18/10/04/pfas-levels-at-nj-base-24-000-times-higher-than-proposed-federal-standard-study-says/

-----------------------------------

Toxic ‘Forever Chemicals’ in Drinking Water Leave Military Families Reeling
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/military-water-toxic-chemicals.html

Quote
... All told, 10 million people could be drinking water laced with high levels of PFAS, according to Patrick Breysse, a top official at the federal Centers for Disease Control. Mr. Breysse has called the presence of the chemicals “one of the most seminal public health challenges” of the coming decades.

... frustration persists. The military never alerted all of the people who drank polluted water, meaning some are still in the dark. When asked how many people were affected by contamination, Ms. Sullivan said she “couldn’t hazard a guess.”

We’re tracking water sources,” she said, “not people.

... a growing movement of veterans and others,.. are asking the military test their blood for the chemicals, hoping to bring results to their doctors or use them in lawsuits.

Their requests have been denied, and the military says that too little is known about the substances to make the results useful.
Quote
... “They don’t want to know,” said Cindi Ashbeck, 56, a veteran who worked out of Wurtsmith Air Force Base in Michigan. “It’s not being addressed, because you open that can of worms, and you’ve got an Agent Orange thing on your hands.”

-------------------------------------------

The U.S. Military Plans to Keep Incinerating Toxic Firefighting Foam, Despite Health Risks 
https://static.theintercept.com/amp/toxic-firefighting-foam-pfas-pfoa.html

Quote
... The Air Force itself acknowledged in a 2017 document that the foam, which was designed to resist extremely high temperatures, is hard to burn and that “the high-temperature chemistry of PFOS and PFOA has not been characterized, so there is no precedent to predict products of pyrolysis or combustion, temperatures at which these will occur, or the extent of destruction that will be realized.”

Even more concerning, “environmentally unsatisfactory” byproducts may be created by incinerating the foam. Among the highly toxic byproducts of PFAS incineration are hydrofluoric acid, which burns human skin on contact; perfluoroisobutylene, a chemical that so reliably kills people within hours of being inhaled that it’s been used as a warfare agent; as well as dioxins and furans, which cause cancer. ....

-----------------------------

3M Knew About the Dangers of PFOA and PFOS Decades Ago, Internal Documents Show
https://theintercept.com/2018/07/31/3m-pfas-minnesota-pfoa-pfos/

------------------------------------

Children’s Exposure to PFAS Chemicals Begins in the Womb
https://www.ewg.org/news-and-analysis/2019/02/children-s-exposure-pfas-chemicals-begins-womb

------------------------------

Cancer-Causing Compounds Found In Alligators, Dolphins, Wildlife at Kennedy Space Center
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/environment/lagoon/2018/08/24/cancer-alligators-dolphins-kennedy-space-center/934923002/

---------------------------------

PFAS in Drinking Water: Hazardous at Ever-Lower Levels
https://www.ewg.org/news-and-analysis/2019/02/pfas-drinking-water-hazardous-ever-lower-levels

--------------------------------

PFAS 'Do Not Eat' Fish Advisory Issued For Sites on Huron River in Oakland, Livingston and Washtenaw Michigan Counties
https://www.theoaklandpress.com/lifestyles/health/pfas-do-not-eat-fish-advisory-issued-for-sites-on/article_af75b526-9980-11e8-b0fc-572d36d11897.html

-------------------------------

Map | Here are Confirmed PFAS Threats to Michigan Water
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/map-here-are-confirmed-pfas-threats-michigan-water

Quote
Michigan’s list of contaminated sites is likely to grow as the state continues to test all public water systems and schools that tap well water.

(https://www.bridgemi.com/sites/default/files/hero_images/map.png)

----------------------------------------

Trump EPA Won’t Limit Chemicals Found In Alabama Drinking Water, Report Says
https://www.al.com/news/2019/01/trump-epa-wont-limit-chemicals-found-in-alabama-drinking-water-report-says.html

------------------------------------------------

EPA Nominee’s Inaction On Water Contaminants is Troubling
https://www.newsday.com/opinion/editorial/epa-nominee-s-inaction-on-water-contaminants-is-troubling-1.26685592

Quote
The federal government continues to abdicate its responsibility to protect the nation’s health and environment. EPA acting head Andrew Wheeler, one of several agency officials who once lobbied for industry, refuses to act on PFOA and PFOSs.

Now it’s the Environmental Protection Agency’s apparent refusal to set drinking-water limits for PFOS (perfluorooctane sulfonate) and PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid), which have been linked to kidney and testicular cancer, among other ailments. The Trump administration last year tried to block an EPA report that found the tap water of at least 16 million Americans contains unsafe levels of the chemicals, found in firefighting foam and Teflon-coated cookware.

Quote
The intervention by Scott Pruitt’s aides came after one White House official warned the findings would cause a ‘public relations nightmare.'
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/14/emails-white-house-interfered-with-science-study-536950

This issue is probably one reason Michael Dourson withdrew his nomination to head the EPA’s chemical regulation branch. Two North Carolina senators opposed the nomination largely because he had worked for industry on a related chemical known as GenX.

------------------------------------------

Worrisome Nonstick Chemicals are Common in U.S. Drinking Water, Federal Study Suggests
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/worrisome-nonstick-chemicals-are-common-us-drinking-water-federal-study-suggests

-------------------------------------------------

To the EPA, ‘Forever Chemicals’ Are a Big Problem Now
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/to-the-epa-forever-chemicals-are-a-big-problem-now/2019/02/14/c73d8e10-3073-11e9-8781-763619f12cb4_story.html

Quote
What do you do about lab-made chemicals that are in 99 percent of people in the U.S. and have been linked to immune system problems and cancer? Whose bonds are so stable that they’re often called “forever chemicals”? Meet PFAS, a class of chemicals that some scientists call the next PCB or DDT. ...

----------------------------------------------------

EPA: GenX Nearly as Toxic as Notorious Non-Stick Chemicals It Replaced
https://www.ewg.org/release/epa-genx-nearly-toxic-notorious-non-stick-chemicals-it-replaced

------------------------------------------

Chemours Is Using The U.S. As An Unregulated Dump for Europe’s Toxic GenX Waste
https://theintercept.com/2019/02/01/chemours-genx-north-carolina-netherlands/

----------------------------------------

'Forever' chemicals leave costly water problem in 'Twin Cities', and across the country
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/02/14/pfas-leaves-costly-water-problem-in-bemidji-and-other-cities

---------------------------------

Chemical made by 3M, other firms, forces Bemidji to abandon water wells
http://www.businessnorth.com/minnesota_public_radio/chemical-made-by-m-other-firms-forces-bemidji-to-abandon/article_1a72cbaa-3145-11e9-bee7-9bd833ba858e.html

--------------------------------

PFASs Seen as Biggest Emerging Chemical Issue for US States
https://chemicalwatch.com/62977/pfass-seen-as-biggest-emerging-chemical-issue-for-us-states

---------------------------------------------

Hundreds of Unrecognized Halogenated Contaminants Discovered in Polar Bear Serum
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-hundreds-unrecognized-halogenated-contaminants-polar.html

---------------------------------------------

This Is How Perfluorinated Substance Pollution Is Distributed In Spain
https://phys.org/news/2017-11-perfluorinated-substance-pollution-spain.html

(https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/csz/news/800/2017/thisishowper.jpg)

----------------------------------

OBTW if you see any article by the American Council on Science and Health on this subject consider the source ...

Quote
The American Council on Science and Health (ACSH) is a pro-industry[2][3][4] nonprofit advocacy organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Council_on_Science_and_Health

ACSH frequently advocates against regulating chemicals without scientific proof of harm. A 2009 editorial by board member Henry Miller in Investor's Business Daily criticized the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s employment of the precautionary principle to regulate chemicals such as bisphenol-A, phthalates, flame retardants, the herbicide atrazine and fluorinated chemicals used to make Teflon, all of which he described as "important and demonstrably safe".

In 2013, leaked internal financial documents revealed that 58% of the ACSH's donations in the period from July 1, 2012 to December 20, 2012 came from corporations and large private foundations, many of which themselves had ties to industries.[3] Donors included Chevron, Coca-Cola, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Bayer Cropscience, Procter & Gamble, Syngenta, 3M, McDonald's and Altria.[3] In addition, the documents revealed that the organization had on numerous occasions directly solicited donations from industry sources on the basis of projected reports on the specific issues in which those companies and industry organizations had such a stake.[3]

In 2017, 26 health, environmental, labor and public interest groups sent a letter to US Today, asking them to "refrain from publishing further columns authored by members of the American Council on Science and Health, or at the very least require that the individuals identify the organization accurately as a corporate-funded advocacy group"

Gilbert Ross, ACSH's former medical director, served time in federal prison and had his medical license revoked for Medicare fraud before being hired by ACSH ... (wholesome people one and all)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: kassy on February 24, 2019, 10:30:45 AM
The battle to save Lapland: 'First, they took the religion. Now they want to build a railroad'

The Sami – who have inhabited these harsh northern latitudes since the last ice age and are the only indigenous people in the EU – fear that proposals to build a €2.9bn railway to the EU’s first Arctic port, in Norway, will provide mining and logging companies with the infrastructure they need to venture ever further into the wilder, untouched parts of Lapland.

...

At present, only logging and gold panning take place in the Sami homeland. Last year, 4,250 hectares of forest were earmarked for felling and 253 gold extraction permits were in place, including 15 new ones for heavy digging machinery. Sanila-Aikio says this is only the start: “We don’t have any mines yet. But they are very close – there are mines all around the Sami area in Finland, Russia, Norway and Sweden.” She calls this process a “slow colonisation”, under which their lands are divided by the railway and handed over to outside industries. “This means the end of the Sami people, because there are no possibilities to practise traditional livelihoods,” she says, her eyes starting to fill with tears. “Then the Sami are extinct.”

...


ecologically pristine parts of northern Lapland will be completely transformed by the railway. “These areas are providing us with climate security. They are the lungs of Europe and the carbon sinks for the future,” he says on the phone from a climate conference. Mustonen, a lead author for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says Finland must decide if the promised GDP growth is worth the risk: “What are the economic benefits of those shipping containers compared to the benefits that rivers and marsh mires have provided to us over millennia in terms of climate security?” The peat-rich soil in Lapland’s wetlands traps vast amounts of carbon, preventing it from contributing to climate change, while rivers act as a conveyor belt, bringing nutrients and carbon between the sea and inland lakes.

Mustonen has produced the only study so far examining the ecological impact of the railway for the Sami parliament. He found engineers would have to quarry for rocks every 4km along the northern stretch of the 465km route to shore up the rails and service road, as well as diverting thousands of brooks, lakes, rivers and streams. “The railroad itself will be roughly 15m across,” he says. “But creating a network of service roads and quarries will leave a crater at least 100m wide across an area that has no infrastructure.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/23/battle-save-lapland-want-to-build-railroad

Just some quotes from the much longer article.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sesyf on February 24, 2019, 05:51:33 PM
The track options have been studied and it seems none of them could be profitable, so let’s hope that this amounts to nothing... but during the last few years the politicians have been able to ignore the reality in other matters, we should be not too hopeful.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on February 27, 2019, 03:29:05 PM
Humans Now Producing More Chemical Waste Than Can Be Tested 
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-humans-chemical.html

...Humans produce thousands of chemicals and use them in wildly different ways—from chemicals to make our lawns grow to chemicals in birth control pills that show up in our urine. In this new effort, the researchers claim that the world now collectively dumps more chemicals into the natural environment than can be tested—and because of that, we really do not know what damage it may be causing.

In their review, the researchers focused mainly on endocrine disrupting chemicals, which include PCBs from plastics and drugs such as antidepressants and birth control pills. Such chemicals are known to disrupt reproduction in marine animals. As one example, they note that a pod of killer whales living off the coast of Scotland has not produced a calf in at least 25 years—one female washed ashore was tested, and researchers found levels of PCBs 100 times higher than the dose considered toxic.
 
Quote
We may be flushing chemicals into the ocean right now that could potentially kill off most if not all marine animals, and not even know it. 

What most concerns the researchers is the rate at which new chemicals are being introduced and used and which eventually wind up in natural ecosystems, which is so high that there is no way to test their impact.

Open Access: H. Charles J. Godfray et al. A restatement of the natural science evidence base on the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals on wildlife (https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2018.2416), Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (2019)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 05, 2019, 01:31:50 AM
Chemical Pollutants In the Home Degrade Fertility In Both Men and Dogs
https://m.medicalxpress.com/news/2019-03-chemical-pollutants-home-degrade-fertility.html

New research by scientists at the University of Nottingham suggests that environmental contaminants found in the home and diet have the same adverse effects on male fertility in both humans and in domestic dogs. 

There has been increasing concern over declining human male fertility in recent decades with studies showing a 50% global reduction in sperm quality in the past 80 years. A previous study by the Nottingham experts showed that sperm quality in domestic dogs has also sharply declined, raising the question of whether modern day chemicals in the home environment could be at least partly to blame.

In a new paper published in Scientific Reports, the Nottingham team set out to test the effects of two specific man-made chemicals namely the common plasticizer DEHP, widely abundant in the home (e.g. carpets, flooring, upholstery, clothes, wires, toys) and the persistent industrial chemical polychlorinated biphenyl 153, which although banned globally, remains widely detectable in the environment including food.

The researchers carried out identical experiments in both species using samples of sperm from donor men and stud dogs living in the same region of the UK.

The results show that the chemicals, at concentrations relevant to environmental exposure, have the same damaging effect on sperm from both man and dog. 


Open Access: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-39913-9
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sebastian Jones on March 05, 2019, 04:32:42 AM


Quote
There has been increasing concern over declining human male fertility in recent decades with studies showing a 50% global reduction in sperm quality in the past 80 years. A previous study by the Nottingham experts showed that sperm quality in domestic dogs has also sharply declined

Decreased fertility in humans is not a problem, it is not even THE problem (it is not exactly as if humanity is in danger of dying out), but it is a serious symptom of yet another insult to the environment.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Human Habitat Index on March 05, 2019, 06:32:41 AM
Chemical Pollutants In the Home Degrade Fertility In Both Men and Dogs
https://m.medicalxpress.com/news/2019-03-chemical-pollutants-home-degrade-fertility.html

New research by scientists at the University of Nottingham suggests that environmental contaminants found in the home and diet have the same adverse effects on male fertility in both humans and in domestic dogs. 

There has been increasing concern over declining human male fertility in recent decades with studies showing a 50% global reduction in sperm quality in the past 80 years. A previous study by the Nottingham experts showed that sperm quality in domestic dogs has also sharply declined, raising the question of whether modern day chemicals in the home environment could be at least partly to blame.

In a new paper published in Scientific Reports, the Nottingham team set out to test the effects of two specific man-made chemicals namely the common plasticizer DEHP, widely abundant in the home (e.g. carpets, flooring, upholstery, clothes, wires, toys) and the persistent industrial chemical polychlorinated biphenyl 153, which although banned globally, remains widely detectable in the environment including food.

The researchers carried out identical experiments in both species using samples of sperm from donor men and stud dogs living in the same region of the UK.

The results show that the chemicals, at concentrations relevant to environmental exposure, have the same damaging effect on sperm from both man and dog. 


Open Access: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-39913-9

Pesticides and Polio: A Critique of Scientific Literature

"Central nervous system diseases (CNS) such as polio are actually the physiological and symptomatic manifestations of the ongoing government- and industry-sponsored inundation of the world’s populace with central nervous system poisons."

Conclusion
The word “virus” is ancient Latin, meaning “slime” or “poison.” Mainstream science admits that most viruses are harmless, yet the word “virus” adds to a biased and highly promoted language of fear regarding nature. Definitions of viruses range from “pathogenic” to “not usually pathogenic.” The more popular the media source, the more frightening the definition. Less fearful definitions would change the relationship between the medical industry and its “patients.”
Paradoxically, early virus studies considered virus filtrates to be a poison, not a microbe, thus the name virus. Today, we know that viruses are information.

Now, nearly a half-century later, the validity of Dr. Biskind’s work appears even more certain. Biskind’s warning bears repeating:

“It was even known by 1945 that DDT is stored in the body fat of mammals and appears in the milk. With this foreknowledge the series of catastrophic events that followed the most intensive campaign of mass poisoning in known human history, should not have surprised the experts. Yet, far from admitting a causal relationship so obvious that in any other field of biology it would be instantly accepted, virtually the entire apparatus of communication, lay and scientific alike, has been devoted to denying, concealing, suppressing, distorting and attempts to convert into its opposite, the overwhelming evidence. Libel, slander and economic boycott have not been overlooked in this campaign.”

The unique correlations between CNS disease and CNS poisons present a variety of research opportunities not only in medical science, but political science, philosophy, media studies, psychology, and sociology.

https://www.westonaprice.org/health-topics/environmental-toxins/pesticides-and-polio-a-critique-of-scientific-literature/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Mozi on March 05, 2019, 12:46:29 PM
Polio is the result of infection by the poliovirus.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: kassy on March 05, 2019, 09:28:46 PM
Polio is the result of infection by the poliovirus.

The claim is that the really severe polio is actually a consequence of chemicals like DDT.

There are basically two points for this. Not all cases diagnosed as polio can be confirmed (by finding the actual virus in the patient) so at least the diagnose is messy.

And there are some interesting bits:

Orthodox medical literature can offer no evidence that the poliovirus was anything else than benign until the first polio epidemic, which occurred in Sweden in 1887. This small epidemic occurred 13 years after the invention of DDT in Germany, in 1874, and 14 years after the invention of the first mechanical pesticide crop sprayer, which was used to spray formulations of water, kerosene, soap and arsenic. The epidemic also occurred immediately following an unprecedented flurry of pesticide innovations. This is not to say that DDT was the actual cause of the first polio epidemic, as arsenic was then in widespread use and DDT is said to have been merely an academic exercise. However, DDT or any of several neurotoxic organochlorines already discovered could have caused the first polio epidemic if they had been used experimentally as a pesticide. DDT’s absence from early literature is little assurance that it was not used.

...

Polio outbreaks occurred most often during the summer and were blamed on viruses picked up in swimming pools. But summer was the time when DDT spraying was at its peak and exposure would have been greatest, either directly or through foods from animals eating sprayed crops. Summer foods like ice cream from DDT-sprayed dairy cows would have been a likely source.

So the claim is that polio has been used to cover up the effects of chemicals which not the same as the claim it does not exist.

We do have a huge problem with chemicals in our environment and they are typically badly regulated.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sebastian Jones on March 06, 2019, 03:58:07 PM
Relating the 20th century rise of severe polio infections, especially in young children, to the rise in the use of pesticides is complicated by other changes that took place at the same time. The rise in sanitation in the 19th and 20th centuries reduced the natural exposure (hence natural immunity) that many kids had to polio viruses, and left them more vulnerable to getting severely ill.
I find it complicated to engage in this discussion, because my distaste (verging on fury) for anti-vaccination campaigns colours my view of theories around disease transmission that points away from the value of vaccination.
However, things ARE complicated.
It is certainly reasonable to posit that drenching our fields and forests and homes and towns with vast quantities of poorly understood poisons is a bad idea, and that there will be consequences to human and ecological health.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2019, 03:17:25 PM
A hydroelectric dam is part of the situation.

These Pictures Show Just How Severe Venezuela's Massive Blackouts Are
As many as 17 people have died in massive power blackouts across Venezuela, which have left hospitals without power and led to shortages in gas, food, and water.
March 11, 2019
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/venezuela-massive-blackouts-power-photos
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 13, 2019, 03:58:35 PM
The 'Ecological Foundations of Society' are In Peril, a Massive UN Report Warns
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/03/13/millions-could-die-prematurely-without-unprecedented-action-clean-air-water-new-un-report-warns/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c7443e4ce4ca

Human activities are degrading the global environment at a pace that could endanger the "ecological foundations of society" and human health, according to a landmark United Nations report released Wednesday.

The authors say that with unprecedented action on a global scale -- including drastically cutting carbon emissions, improving water management and reducing pollution -- humans can achieve a future with less poverty and hunger while preserving the environment. ... our window for action is closing fast. If we continue business as usual, the authors warn, we can expect:

Quote
- Millions of premature deaths caused by air pollution across large swaths of Asia, the Middle East and Africa by the middle of this century.
- The continuation of a major species extinction event, impairing Earth's capacity to meet human food and resource needs.
- Freshwater pollutants making antimicrobial-resistant infections a major cause of death by 2050.

The 740 page report is the sixth Global Environment Outlook (https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27652/GEO6SPM_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y) and is the UN's most comprehensive report on the state of the global environment since the fifth edition in 2012. More than 250 scientists and experts from more than 70 countries contributed to the assessment.

(https://www.unenvironment.org/interactive/global-environment-outlook/assets/imgs/geo_report.png)

The authors echo findings from last fall's UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that, to avoid disastrous levels of global warming, urgent changes to all aspects of society are needed.

Unfortunately, greenhouse gas emissions have locked the world into a period of climate change defined by rising seas, more frequent and intense storms and food security crises, the report says.

Climate change is hardly the only environmental crisis unfolding due to human activity that the report urges action to address.

Species extinction rates continue to increase at a pace that could compromise Earth's ability to meet human needs, the report says.

The authors also detail how feeding the growing human population remains a challenge that is taking a toll on the environment. Land is getting less fertile and useful. The report says degradation “hot spots,” where it’s difficult to grow crops, now cover 29 percent of all land areas.

... it comes on the heels of another U.N. report, issued in October, which said that the international community has 12 years to limit the disastrous effects of climate change (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report).

https://youtu.be/3dyhAcGyd20

https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27652/GEO6SPM_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/video/planet-focus-global-environment-outlook

------------------------

Environment is Deadly and Worsening Mess, but Not Hopeless: U.N.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/03/13/world/science-health-world/environment-deadly-worsening-mess-not-hopeless-u-n/#.XIkbMyJKjIU

(https://cdn.japantimes.2xx.jp/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/f-climate-a-20190314-200x200.jpg)

... “There is still time but the window is closing fast.”

The sixth Global Environment Outlook, released Wednesday at a U.N. conference in Nairobi, Kenya, painted a dire picture of a planet where environmental problems interact with each other to make things even more dangerous for people. It uses the word “risk” 561 times in a 740-page report.

The report concludes “unsustainable human activities globally have degraded the Earth’s ecosystems, endangering the ecological foundations of society.”

(https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-802d7824e2de755e4646b220c5b4f44d)

“Time is running out to prevent the irreversible and dangerous impacts of climate change,” the report says, noting that unless something changes, global temperatures will exceed the threshold of warming — another 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above current temperatures — that international agreements call dangerous.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wdmn on March 14, 2019, 05:30:50 AM
This follows on vox_mundi's post above.

Because I wasn't sure where else to put it... places becoming less livable: Earth.

New UN report discusses arctic temperatures:

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433886-un-report-finds-globe-is-past-the-point-of-halting-temperature-rise

Dramatic temperature increases in the globe’s northernmost region, which is typically covered by permafrost, is unavoidable, according to the report released at the United Nations Environment Assembly.

Even if countries were to meet the original goals of the Paris climate agreement, it would do nothing to stop Arctic winter temperatures from increasing 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 5 to 9 degrees Celsius by 2080, according to the report.

The resulting sea level rises worldwide would be devastating.

The report also warned that the rapid thawing of permafrost in the region could likely accelerate the effects of climate change, which could completely negate any long-term international pacts and goals to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius compared to 1986-2005 levels.

.....

To put the study’s findings into perspective, even if global emissions were to completely stop overnight, winter temperatures in the arctic would still increase between 4 to 5 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared to the late 20th century’s temperatures, the study found.


*gulp*
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 14, 2019, 08:13:30 AM
More from the Guardian ...

Sharp Rise in Arctic Temperatures Now Inevitable – UN 
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/13/arctic-temperature-rises-must-be-urgently-tackled-warns-un

... Winter temperatures at the north pole are likely to rise by at least 3C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, and there could be further rises to between 5C and 9C above the recent average for the region, according to the UN.

... Scientists fear Arctic heating could trigger a climate “tipping point” as melting permafrost releases the powerful greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere, which in turn could create a runaway warming effect.

If melting permafrost triggers a tipping point, the likely results would be global temperature rises well in excess of the 2C set as the limit of safety under the Paris agreement. Nearly half of Arctic permafrost could be lost even if global carbon emissions are held within the Paris agreement limits, according to the UN study.

UN Report: https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27652/GEO6SPM_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

... Even if the Paris Agreement is met, Arctic permafrost is expected to shrink 45% compared to today. Globally, these frozen soils hold an estimated 1,672 billion metric tonnes of carbon. Increased thawing is expected to contribute significantly to carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The resulting warming will in turn lead to more thawing – an effect known as ‘positive feedback’

https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/3-5degc-temperature-rise-now-locked-arctic
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: kassy on March 14, 2019, 02:51:31 PM

The Toxic Consequences of America’s Plastics Boom

Thanks to fracking, petrochemicals giants are poised to make the plastic pollution crisis much, much worse.

Companies are investing $65 billion to dramatically expand plastics production in the United States, and more than 333 petrochemical projects are underway or newly completed, including brand-new facilities, expansions of existing plants, vast networks of pipelines, and shipping infrastructure. This is a sharp reversal of fortune for American plastics manufacturers. Just over a decade ago, major plastics makers shed tens of thousands of jobs as cheaper operating costs in Asia and the Middle East lured production overseas. Now, thanks to the fracking revolution, producing plastic has become radically cheaper in the United States, leading to a glut of raw materials for its creation. The economic winds have shifted so profoundly that petrochemical companies have declared a “renaissance” in American plastics manufacturing. In turn, plastic is becoming an increasingly important source of profit for Big Oil, providing yet another reason to drill in the face of climate change.

...

<during Trumps may 2017 Saudi Arabia visit>
Meanwhile, in a mint-and-gold-colored room within the Saudi royal court, executives struck their own deals. Among them were Darren Woods, the CEO and chairman of ExxonMobil, and Yousef Al-Benyan, CEO of the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), one of the world’s largest producers of petrochemicals. With Trump, Saudi King Salman, and then–US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (a former Exxon CEO) looking on, Woods and Al-Benyan shook hands on a joint venture to build what will be the largest plastics facility of its kind, on Texas’s Gulf Coast.

...

Plotted on a map, the rectangle of land where Exxon plans to build is nearly as large as Portland and about twice the size of neighboring Gregory, a low-income, largely Hispanic community.

...

According to Exxon’s requested air permit, the facility will emit sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides, which can combine to form ozone smog; carcinogens, including benzene, formaldehyde, and butadiene; and other particulate matter. The health risks of these emissions include eye and throat irritation, respiratory problems, and headaches, as well as nose bleeds at low levels and, at high levels, more serious damage to vital organs and the central nervous system.

...

Now, the Texas Campaign for the Environment and the Sierra Club, working on behalf of Portland and Gregory residents, are contesting the air-quality permits that Exxon requested from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Summerlin is not naive about the prospects of this effort: The commission is notoriously friendly to industry and, as far as Summerlin knows, has never denied a permit

...

All of these new facilities will require water; Exxon’s cracker alone will consume 20 to 25 million gallons per day, more than all the water currently used each day in San Patricio County’s water district. But the area is prone to drought. The Port of Corpus Christi has plans to build a seawater-desalination plant on Harbor Island near Port Aransas, which could lead to discharges of extremely salty water back into the bays that serve as nurseries for shrimp and fish. The development is also vulnerable to hurricanes. When Hurricane Harvey swept across Houston in 2017, many chemical plants shut down, releasing an estimated 1 million pounds of excess toxic emissions that drifted into neighboring communities.

https://www.thenation.com/article/plastics-pollution-crisis-fracking-petrochemicals/

Just some quotes from a long and good (and rather depressing) article.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ritter on March 14, 2019, 04:26:04 PM
@vox and wdmn,

Those are horrific studies. It would appear the referenced "tipping point" has already been exceeded. Now commencing feedback loop.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wdmn on March 14, 2019, 05:40:27 PM
@vox and wdmn,

Those are horrific studies. It would appear the referenced "tipping point" has already been exceeded. Now commencing feedback loop.

Yeah, I'm surprised how little coverage it's getting, though I guess I shouldn't be.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: anthropocene on March 14, 2019, 08:47:18 PM
More from the Guardian ...

Sharp Rise in Arctic Temperatures Now Inevitable – UN 
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/13/arctic-temperature-rises-must-be-urgently-tackled-warns-un

... Winter temperatures at the north pole are likely to rise by at least 3C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, and there could be further rises to between 5C and 9C above the recent average for the region, according to the UN.

<---- snip
https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/3-5degc-temperature-rise-now-locked-arctic

You would think that when quoting just about straight from the source the Guardian would be more accurate: The unenvironment link says;
"Even if Paris Agreement goals met, Arctic winter temperatures will increase 3-5°C by 2050 compared to 1986-2005 levels."     

1986-2005 is NOT pre-industrial.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 15, 2019, 12:32:36 AM
Malaysia Shuts 111 Schools as Toxic Dumping Poisons Hundreds 
https://dw.com/en/malaysia-shuts-111-schools-as-toxic-dumping-poisons-hundreds/a-47905693

The situation is becoming "increasingly critical" after hundreds more children were admitted to hospital. Three people suspected of involvement in the dumping of toxic waste have been arrested.

Malaysia has closed 111 schools after hundreds of people, many of them children, were hospitalized following the suspected dumping of toxic waste in a nearby river, authorities said.

Hazardous fumes spread across Johor in the country's south last week after a truck was believed to have dumped the waste, causing symptoms including nausea and vomiting.   

--------------------------
Over 2,000 Fall Ill in Malaysia after Toxic Waste Dumped 
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-fall-ill-malaysia-toxic-dumped.html

More than 2,000 people, including many children, have fallen ill after toxic waste was dumped in a Malaysian river and emitted hazardous fumes over a wide area, an official said Friday.

The number of those needing medical treatment has been slowly rising since the crisis began and on Friday the figure stood at 2,355, including 113 still in hospital, local lawmaker Sahruddin Jamal told AFP.

Local media have reported the waste was a type of oil commonly used to lubricate ship's engines which emitted methane and benzene fumes. Up to 40 tonnes of the toxic substance is believed to have been tipped into the river.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 16, 2019, 04:17:23 PM
Now multiply this 1000 fold to begin to grapple with the challenges that climate change will present even the wealthiest nation in the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZJEdiehWY8
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 16, 2019, 04:32:56 PM
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d

In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”

Ya think?

Just wait until the next storm that dumps 80 inches of rain instead of 50 inches...and it will happen...
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 16, 2019, 04:48:32 PM
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d

In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”

Ya think?

Just wait until the next storm that dumps 80 inches of rain instead of 50 inches...and it will happen...
Related ...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1858.msg191257.html#msg191257

Post-Hurricane Harvey, NASA Tried To Fly a Pollution-Spotting Plane over Houston… Trump's EPA Said No!
https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-nasa-jet-epa-hurricane-harvey-20190305-story.html
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Human Habitat Index on March 18, 2019, 03:23:06 PM
Polio is the result of infection by the poliovirus.

20 Things You Don’t Know About Polio

https://realnewsaustralia.com/2019/02/27/the-real-history-of-polio-20-things-you-didnt-know/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: bbr2314 on March 18, 2019, 03:29:09 PM
Polio is the result of infection by the poliovirus.

20 Things You Don’t Know About Polio

https://realnewsaustralia.com/2019/02/27/the-real-history-of-polio-20-things-you-didnt-know/

Is Neven going to allow anti-vax BS to proliferate on his website? Because that's what this is. Neven???
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Human Habitat Index on March 18, 2019, 03:54:41 PM
Polio is the result of infection by the poliovirus.

20 Things You Don’t Know About Polio

https://realnewsaustralia.com/2019/02/27/the-real-history-of-polio-20-things-you-didnt-know/

Pesticides - DDT - Rachel Carson - Silent Spring

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ipbc-6IvMQI
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Mozi on March 18, 2019, 04:13:59 PM
Polio is the result of infection by the poliovirus.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2019, 05:19:35 PM
This anti-vax bullshit is making this thread less livable.
Let us hope the infection does not spread throughout the forum.

Has Neven got a vaccination to hand?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 18, 2019, 06:37:02 PM
This anti-vax bullshit is making this thread less livable.
Let us hope the infection does not spread throughout the forum.

Has Neven got a vaccination to hand?

Anti-vax persons are anti-science and I would look at individuals with a jaundiced eye as regards to their attitudes towards climate change.

Back on topic people.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: magnamentis on March 18, 2019, 07:30:10 PM
This anti-vax bullshit is making this thread less livable.
Let us hope the infection does not spread throughout the forum.

Has Neven got a vaccination to hand?

Anti-vax persons are anti-science and I would look at individuals with a jaundiced eye as regards to their attitudes towards climate change.

Back on topic people.

i'm anti anything that:

- would have to be produced for billions to save a few and at the same time leaves a direct energy and resources footprint, and supports over population. it's turning the screws of nature under the disguise of humanity and political correctness but ultimately kills a big part of the fauna and flora on this planet.

the urge to insure everything and protect ourselves from everything will kill us all.

vaccine is only one example but just imagine the energy and resources needed to produce
them for all mankind and how few really benefit with an often unknown long-term price tag (side-effects)

this would become to long to read to go deeper but i know that GW is manmade and still am against vaccine and i'm not against science while not all that is released by scientists is sacrosanct.

where does overpopulation in third world country come from, when did it start ?

i won't answer this, ask yourself and think whether africa for example wouldn't be better of with the population they had a hundred years ago or even before that.

too many people with to little perspectives are, beside all natural causes, another huge factor in an eventually ultimate mass extinction and this does apply to almost any organic population, trees, animals and animals who think they are the crown of creation while in fact they're mostly stupid and cruel at the same time, only intentionally as compared to simple animaliistic instincts.

egos are greeting ;)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on March 18, 2019, 11:51:12 PM
I'm a bit of an anti-vaxxer myself (not because I'm anti-science per se, but mostly because I'm anti-Big Pharma, against the economic reasons for vaccines, and think there are much bigger health problems than infectious diseases that don't get the attention they deserve, because they're causing human degeneration), but I've seen this type of discussions and they're very tiresome. I don't want the ASIF to become less livable.  ;)

Because HHI keeps on shooting those posts from the hip, I've put him on moderation.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: rboyd on March 19, 2019, 02:04:56 AM
bbr2314, attempting to shut someone down with a highly emotive image is not what I expect in this forum. There is a place for discussion, I myself definitely question the efficacy of some vaccines (e.g. the flu vaccine) while most definitely accepting the efficacy of others (e.g..smallpox, whooping cough, polio etc.). This is not a forum about vaccines, but climate change, so having noted my distaste I will not post on this subject again.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Juan C. García on March 19, 2019, 03:24:45 PM
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d

In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”

Ya think?

Just wait until the next storm that dumps 80 inches of rain instead of 50 inches...and it will happen...
Related ...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1858.msg191257.html#msg191257

Post-Hurricane Harvey, NASA Tried To Fly a Pollution-Spotting Plane over Houston… Trump's EPA Said No!
https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-nasa-jet-epa-hurricane-harvey-20190305-story.html

Now on Deer Park (TX), the situation has changed from flooding to chemical plant fire. Parents are concerned that kids are allowed to go to schools close to the fire. Seems to me that authorities are more concerned on keeping the business as usual, than concerned on the children's health.

https://abc13.com/parents-concerned-after-classes-resume-while-itc-fire-still-burns/5205019/ (https://abc13.com/parents-concerned-after-classes-resume-while-itc-fire-still-burns/5205019/)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Chuck Yokota on March 19, 2019, 04:01:11 PM
I found the polio article full of BS with a heavy conspiracy theory mindset, about like a typical denier rant against climate science.

Anyway, Big Pharma has no interest in promoting treatments that cost a few dollars once in a lifetime; the real money is in medications for chronic conditions that people need to take every day. That is where the scandals about unethical and illegal marketing and promotion have been revealed.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 19, 2019, 04:30:59 PM
I agree with you Neven that the system we are living in is not optimal. Yeah, there is indeed a problem with corporate interests in health care. But, this does not change the fact that vaccinations work and prevent a lot of harm.

Seriously, if we allow this anti-vaxxer shit we might as well open a flat-earth thread to attract all the lunatics out there.

That said, i would prefer this to stay a forum for people who base their opinions on facts.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: silkman on March 19, 2019, 04:38:15 PM

Anyway, Big Pharma has no interest in promoting treatments that cost a few dollars once in a lifetime; the real money is in medications for chronic conditions that people need to take every day.

That's the 20th century paradigm and its not really true any more. Most of the big markets for chronic medication are now well satisfied by out of patent drugs. There's a few fancy formulations out there, particularly in asthma but the big bucks these days are in biologics, primarily monoclonal antibodies, supported by genetic markers for disease.

This approach will prove increasingly divisive as the cost of development is high and the fragmentation of markets for genetically targeted therapy results in financial models demanding stratospheric prices for effective personalised medicine.

The outcome, increasingly, is resulting in 21st century healthcare being beyond the means of the majority of the population. In the UK NHS there are stories every week of the agency responsible of cost effectiveness in healthcare failing to approve targeted therapies on cost grounds to the dismay, often, of the parents of young children. It's a model that is driving social division.

Against this background vaccines are at the other end of the scale and represent true social medicine. The objective is herd immunity and the risk to the vaccinated population is not zero but it's very low. And it's the poor and the disadvantaged in society that benefit most as, in general, they are at greatest risk.

After a long career in life sciences I find it difficult to understand how my good, mostly science minded friends on this site could be swayed by the fallacious arguments of the anti-vaccine lobby.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Neven on March 19, 2019, 07:59:26 PM
Just to be clear, that was the last anti-vaccination post I'm letting through, because HHI is on moderation now. I'm not interested in the discussion. There are millions of them on the Internet. No need for another one here.

So, on-topic again, please.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 19, 2019, 08:35:56 PM
A.F.A.I.K when Saharan dust reaches the Caribbean there is a notable uptick in asthma attacks. They reckon it is the biological bits , and not the silica, that drives this?

Should we be seeing a new 'go to' for atmospheric pressure distribution for NW Europe the shift from 'trough off Ireland' to 'Ridge over Shetland' ity could bring NW Europe far more than high temps and sunny summers!

In my youth here it the UK we look out for 'Spanish plumes' if we like storms over summer. Recently they are more often 'African Plumes' and bring us red dust for our cars. Will they bring the same asthma issues the Caribbean see?
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Juan C. García on March 20, 2019, 07:42:25 PM
Ruined crops, salty soil: How rising seas are poisoning North Carolina’s farmland
Quote
“It’s been getting worse,” the farmer tells East Carolina University hydrogeologist Alex Manda, who drove out to this corner of coastal North Carolina with a group of graduate students to figure out what’s poisoning Pugh’s land — and whether anything can be done to stop it.
Of climate change’s many plagues — drought, insects, fires, floods — saltwater intrusion in particular sounds almost like a biblical curse. Rising seas, sinking earth and extreme weather are conspiring to cause salt from the ocean to contaminate aquifers and turn formerly fertile fields barren. A 2016 study in the journal Science predicted that 9 percent of the U.S. coastline is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion — a percentage likely to grow as the world continues to warm. Scientists are just beginning to assess the potential effect on agriculture, Manda said, and it’s not yet clear how much can be mitigated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/ruined-crops-salty-soil-how-rising-seas-are-poisoning-north-carolinas-farmland/2019/03/01/2e26b83e-28ce-11e9-8eef-0d74f4bf0295_story.html?utm_term=.5f82c77da373 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/ruined-crops-salty-soil-how-rising-seas-are-poisoning-north-carolinas-farmland/2019/03/01/2e26b83e-28ce-11e9-8eef-0d74f4bf0295_story.html?utm_term=.5f82c77da373)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 21, 2019, 05:06:41 PM
National Guard Called Into Houston After Chemical Fire, Residents Told to Stay Inside 
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna985776

HOUSTON — National Guard troops have been called in and residents were told to stay inside after elevated levels of benzene were detected early Thursday near a Houston-area petrochemicals storage facility that caught fire this week.

Harris County officials said the Guard and hazardous materials teams have established perimeters around the Intercontinental Terminals Company in Deer Park, which is about 15 miles southeast of Houston.

The Texas Environmental Protection Agency said Wednesday that benzene levels near the facility didn't pose a health concern. But authorities issued a shelter-in-place order Thursday following "reports of action levels of benzene or other volatile organic compounds" within Deer Park, according to the city.

Several school districts also canceled classes for the day, citing "unfavorable air quality conditions."


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theeditorialcartoons.com%2Fproperties%2Fpett%2Fart_images%2Fcg494147a02ab330.jpg&hash=7fc9ebe17b9c1a531f774ed7cc47b08f)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 23, 2019, 04:19:57 PM
New Fire Erupts at Deer Park Plant as Leaking Toxins Close Ship Channel
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/New-fire-erupts-at-Deer-Park-plant-as-leaking-13710439.php

Friday brought a bout of deja vu to the Houston Ship Channel, where for the sixth consecutive day firefighters battled a massive chemical fire that has so far burned 11 storage tanks at Intercontinental Terminals Company.

A day ITC hoped would bring no surprises as the company carefully drained flammable compounds from exposed 80,000-barrel tanks devolved into a series of emergencies that exposed new dangers. Around noon, a wall surrounding the tank farm breached, increasing the risk that airborne and liquid toxins would be released and forcing a portion of the Ship Channel to close.

Three hours later, the fire re-ignited in at least two locations, sending familiar smoke into the sky.

Quote
“People are scared. I’m scared,” said Jennifer Tijerina of Pasadena, as she held her 10-month-old boy, Sammy, on her hip. “Just information and reassurance would’ve been nice.”

Jennifer Tijerina’s husband, Sam, said he was frustrated by the amount of inaccurate social media posts, which residents often turn to when official sources offer little.

An ITC spokesman said that because the Friday reading was “localized,” there was no need for a public notice or shelter-in-place order.

-------------------------------

1,000 Locals Reportedly Seek Treatment After Multi-Day Fire at Houston Chemical Facility   
https://earther.gizmodo.com/1-000-locals-reportedly-seek-treatment-after-multi-day-1833518984

Roughly 1,000 people sought treatment at a pop-up treatment center for symptoms including nausea, headaches, and respiratory problems after Intercontinental Terminals Co.’s (ITC) chemical storage facility in Deer Park, Houston caught fire this week, Bloomberg reported on Friday, with at least 15 cases dubbed serious enough to warrant a transfer to local emergency rooms.

Environmental Protection Agency National Air Toxics Assessment data shows the communities surrounding the ITC facility in Deer Park such as Manchester, Harrisburg, Meadowbrook, and Allendale already face some of the highest cancer risks in Houston from ethylene oxide emissions. The ITC facility in question has, since 2003, usually experienced at least three unauthorized emissions of air contaminants a year.   
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on March 25, 2019, 09:33:52 PM
Related to: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,428.msg189529.html#msg189529 and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,428.msg189625.html#msg189625
https://www.njspotlight.com/stories/18/10/04/pfas-levels-at-nj-base-24-000-times-higher-than-proposed-federal-standard-study-says/
---------------------------------------

New Jersey Orders Cleanup of Clothing, Cookware Chemicals (PFAS)
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-jersey-cleanup-cookware-chemicals.html

New Jersey is ordering five companies that manufacture chemicals used to stain-proof clothing and produce non-stick cookware to spend what could be hundreds of millions of dollars to clean up contamination from the substances.

The state Department of Environmental Protection ordered the manufacturers Monday to provide a detailed account of their use and discharge of so-called PFAS substances over the years.

The firms—Solvay, DuPont, Dow DuPont, Chemours and 3M—also must pay to clean up any contamination they caused. If they refuse, or drag their feet, they could be charged three times the amount of money the state spends to deal with the problem.

The substances are sometimes called "forever chemicals" because they do not break down, and tend to accumulate in the air, water, soil and even fish. They can harm fetuses and newborns, and have been associated with kidney and testicular cancer, auto-immune illnesses and decreased response to vaccines, according to the state.

McCabe said the substances are discovered on a near-daily basis in New Jersey's drinking water, groundwater, surface waters, sediments, soils, air, fish, plants and other natural resources. Similar contamination has occurred throughout the country.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced a plan to address PFAS contamination nationally, but that plan could take years to enact.

(https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.0eOwEXpxENlccLBrUtyQFQHaEI&pid=Api&P=0&w=300&h=300)

"It seems like we keep doing this to ourselves: inventing these fabulous new things—remember DDT?—and putting them into commerce without looking enough at the risks," McCabe said.

--------------------------------------

EPA Drags Heels on Oil Dispersant Rules
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-groups-epa-heels-oil-dispersant.html

Environmental groups and women from Alaska and Louisiana say the Environmental Protection Agency has dragged its heels on issuing rules for oil spill dispersants, and they're ready to sue to demand them.

They say dispersants such as Corexit, used during the Exxon Valdez and BP oil spills, were more toxic to people and the environment than oil alone but, nearly four years after taking public comments about such rules, the agency hasn't acted.

"We depend on feeding our families from the ocean. We need the ocean to be a clean environment for our animals," Rosemary Ahtuangaruak, a plaintiff from Alaska, said in a telephone interview. With the Trump administration considering an oil and gas lease sale in Alaska's Beaufort Sea, she said, people fear both spills and dispersants.

... Arnesen said the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon spill off Louisiana severely damaged her family's commercial fishing business. She also blames it for migraines, lesions, rashes and respiratory problems that she, her husband and their two children still have.

"One reason the oil companies like Corexit is because it causes the oil to sink and makes the water look clear, when in fact it's actually increasing the toxicity," she said in a news release for the law clinic.

The EPA's oil spill response guidelines haven't been updated since 1994 to reflect research on dispersant effects after the Exxon Valdez broke open on rocks in Prince William Sound in 1989 and BP's Gulf of Mexico spill, according to the notice of intent to sue.

"Given the history of offshore oil drilling, it is simply a matter of when—not if—a devastating oil spill will occur," the letter states.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 27, 2019, 08:06:17 PM
US Air Force: We Need $5 Billion To Fix Weather-Damaged Bases
Quote
The U.S. Air Force says it needs nearly $5 billion over the next three years to rebuild bases in Florida and Nebraska severely damaged by weather in the past six months.

If it does not receive $1.2 billion of those funds by June for repairs at Tyndall Air Force Base and Offutt Air Force Base, service officials warned they would be forced to cut projects at bases in 18 states and cancel 18,000 pilot training hours.
...
Caught by surprise

The damage to both bases appears to have caught the military by surprise. The Pentagon’s widely criticized climate-impact report for 2019 listed Offutt as a base with climate-related vulnerabilities, but only for drought, and said there was no current or potential risk of recurrent flooding. While the report mentioned Tyndall in its text, the base did not appear in the list of at-risk facilities. ...
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/03/us-air-force-we-need-5-billion-fix-weather-damaged-bases/155863/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on March 27, 2019, 09:16:39 PM
US Air Force: We Need $5 Billion To Fix Weather-Damaged Bases
Quote
The U.S. Air Force says it needs nearly $5 billion over the next three years to rebuild bases in Florida and Nebraska severely damaged by weather in the past six months.

If it does not receive $1.2 billion of those funds by June for repairs at Tyndall Air Force Base and Offutt Air Force Base, service officials warned they would be forced to cut projects at bases in 18 states and cancel 18,000 pilot training hours.
Sorry, USAF, Trump needs your money to build a wall.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on March 27, 2019, 09:37:16 PM
This was hardly a surprise.  They have known for years that this was a potential problem.  In 2011, flood waters came within 50 feet of the runway, which NOAA said was within the range of natural variability.  Comparisons are being made to the great flood of 1952. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna985926
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Juan C. García on March 28, 2019, 01:53:10 AM
US Air Force: We Need $5 Billion To Fix Weather-Damaged Bases
If it were a "AGW image of the month" topic, I will surely vote for this one!
 ;D
(I find hard to believe that the U.S. Air Force is facing this problem and the U.S. Government still don't recognize the consequences of anthropogenic global warming).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on April 06, 2019, 01:50:28 PM
Tons of Fish Killed in German River Contamination 
https://dw.com/en/tons-of-fish-killed-in-german-river-contamination/a-48233190

A chemical spill is being blamed for the death of several tons of fish, as well as waterfowl and a deer in southwest Germany. Police have warned local residents to keep their children and animals away from the river.

Authorities in the southwestern German city of Heilbronn on Friday announced that a chemical spill at a local shipping company likely killed every living creature in a 16 kilometer (10 mile) stretch of the Schozach River, a tributary of the Neckar.

... Local fishers say it could take years for the river to recover.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2019, 12:20:46 PM
A little bit more expensive to keep the natural gas flowing into the UK. Coastal erosion. They think that the work being done will last 15 years. I wonder....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-12/u-k-s-bacton-gas-pipeline-link-to-europe-needs-sand-pump-rescue?srnd=premium-europe
A Stadium Full of Sand Needed to Prop U.K.’s Teetering Gas Link
Bacton pipeline hub is in danger of tumbling into the North Sea with erosion consuming the Norfolk coast.

Quote
Britain’s only link with continental Europe’s natural gas network is at risk of tumbling into the North Sea, prompting a rescue involving thousands of tons of sand.

For five decades, the Bacton terminal on the Norfolk coast in eastern England has served as the nation’s most important energy-supply hub even as waves and wind eat away at its foundations. The facilities run by companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Perenco SA draw in gas from offshore fields and from two interconnector pipelines.

Yet erosion at the site is increasingly dangerous, with an average of about 1 meter of earth tumbling into the sea every three years. A single storm in December 2013 wiped out 10 meters of cliff, according to Royal HaskoningDHV, the Dutch company that’s been hired to fortify the beach in front of the terminal. At the narrowest point, there’s only 15 meters separating the Bacton terminal from the cliff edge........
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: kassy on April 12, 2019, 01:26:35 PM
Well if they do they beat the New Orleans levees:

After A $14 Billion Upgrade, New Orleans’ Levees Are Sinking
Sea level rise and ground subsidence will render the flood barriers inadequate in just four years

...now, 11 months after the Army Corps of Engineers completed one of the largest public works projects in world history, the agency says the system will stop providing adequate protection in as little as four years because of rising sea levels and shrinking levees.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/after-a-14-billion-upgrade-new-orleans-levees-are-sinking/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 12, 2019, 10:58:47 PM
Well if they do they beat the New Orleans levees:

After A $14 Billion Upgrade, New Orleans’ Levees Are Sinking
Sea level rise and ground subsidence will render the flood barriers inadequate in just four years

...now, 11 months after the Army Corps of Engineers completed one of the largest public works projects in world history, the agency says the system will stop providing adequate protection in as little as four years because of rising sea levels and shrinking levees.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/after-a-14-billion-upgrade-new-orleans-levees-are-sinking/

The only real solution here is to retreat from much of the massive Mississippi River delta.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Juan C. García on April 16, 2019, 02:45:01 PM
How Trump’s border crisis is driven by climate change

Quote
For months, President Trump has tweeted and raged about the ongoing migration crisis along the U.S. southern border.

What Trump has spent far less time discussing are the driving forces of this current wave of migration — at least not the one whose very existence the president still disputes. But it’s become increasingly clear that climate change has played a significant part in deepening the extreme poverty and insecurity that compels many to head north. According to the World Bank, climate change could lead to at least 1.4 million people leaving their homes in Mexico and Central America over the next three decades.

A recent lengthy exposé by the New Yorker’s Jonathan Blitzer focused on the expanding “dry corridor” — a region in Central America marred by drought that stretches from Panama to the southern reaches of Mexico. Conditions are particularly acute in the highlands that link central Honduras to western Guatemala, where millions of subsistence farmers have seen their livelihoods ravaged not just by lack of rain, but also its excess — floods, landslides and hurricanes. Their plight has been compounded by woeful agricultural infrastructure and national governments that have few resources to help them.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/04/16/how-trumps-border-crisis-is-driven-by-climate-change/?utm_term=.ad18a34655ce (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/04/16/how-trumps-border-crisis-is-driven-by-climate-change/?utm_term=.ad18a34655ce)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on April 16, 2019, 03:46:08 PM
Well if they do they beat the New Orleans levees:

After A $14 Billion Upgrade, New Orleans’ Levees Are Sinking
Sea level rise and ground subsidence will render the flood barriers inadequate in just four years

...now, 11 months after the Army Corps of Engineers completed one of the largest public works projects in world history, the agency says the system will stop providing adequate protection in as little as four years because of rising sea levels and shrinking levees.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/after-a-14-billion-upgrade-new-orleans-levees-are-sinking/

The only real solution here is to retreat from much of the massive Mississippi River delta.

The current delta (No #6 in the Holocene) was born to die. Human interference (the latest being climate change including sea level rise) merely accelerates the process. Louisiana, the State that lost its boot (certainly its toes).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River_Delta
Coastal change in southeastern Louisiana
The modern day Mississippi River Delta plain began to evolve during the Holocene Epoch (around 7,500 to 8,000 years ago) due to the deceleration of sea level rise and the natural shifting of the river's course every 1,000–1,500 years.

The delta cycle refers to a dynamic process whereby the river deposits sediment at its outfall, growing a delta lobe, then eventually, seeking a shorter path to the sea, abandons its previous course and associated delta. After the river changes course and abandons the delta headland, the region experiences land loss due to the processes of subsidence, erosion of the marsh shoreline, and the natural redistribution of sands deposited along the delta that create the barrier islands. The delta cycle contains the natural process of land loss and land gain, due to the directionality and discharge of the river. This process formed the bays, bayous, coastal wetlands, and barrier islands that make up the coastline of Louisiana.

The Mississippi River major deltaic cycle began over 7,000 years ago, eventually forming six delta complexes which are major depositional elements of a delta plain. The Mississippi River Delta complexes consist of smaller areas known as delta lobes, which contain the basins and other natural landscapes of the coastline.[13]

The six Mississippi River Delta complexes are as follows:

1. The Maringouin delta formed 7,500 to 5,500 years ago when relative sea level rapidly rose.[6]
2. The Teche delta formed 5,500 to 3,500 years ago after relative sea level rise decelerated.[6]
3. The St. Bernard delta formed 4,000 to 2,000 years ago following an avulsion that caused the river's relocation to the east of present-day New Orleans.[6]
4. The Lafourche delta formed 2,500 to 500 years ago from a second avulsion that caused the river to relocate to the west of present-day New Orleans.[6]
5. Modern day development (over the past 1,500 years) formed the Plaquemines-Balize delta, also known as Bird's Foot Delta, between the St. Bernard and Lafourche delta.[6]
6. Diversion to the Atchafalaya began 500 years ago with the Atchafalaya and Wax Lake Outlet deltas emerging in the mid-20th century.[14] More recent influences created the most recent land building processes in the Wax Lake Outlet when the Wax Lake Outlet channel was created in 1942 to reduce water levels at Morgan City.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 16, 2019, 05:33:50 PM
Very nice Gerontocrat.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 16, 2019, 06:16:11 PM
Curious that Wikipedia posts conflicting ages of the several lobes (different recent publications, per references).  But the concept is very real.  This image from the Wikipedia article shows that un-fed lobes disintegrate when not fed - during the course of 6,000 years with insignificant sea level change (compared to what's coming).
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 16, 2019, 09:14:30 PM
The southern half (so far) of Florida, apparently, is becoming less livable for native pygmy rattlesnakes.  Bloodsucking worms found in Florida rattlesnake species alarm researchers: It's a 'nasty situation' (https://www.foxnews.com/science/bloodsucking-worms-florida-rattlesnake-species)
Quote

Farrell and his students have tested a total of three pygmy rattlesnakes and found the same type of bloodsucking parasitic worms in each of the reptile's lungs and near their tracheas. The researchers then collaborated with the University of Florida's College of Veterinary Medicine to conduct tests on the creatures' DNA to determine how the parasites were being introduced.

They discovered the parasite species appeared to be from southeast Asia, indicating they may be connected to Burmese pythons, a species native to that particular region that also happens to be an invasive species in the Sunshine State. They published their findings in the Herpetological Review (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331985998_Spillover_of_Pentastome_Parasites_from_Invasive_Burmese_Pythons_Python_bivittatus_to_Pygmy_Rattlesnakes_Sistrurus_miliarius_Extending_Parasite_Range_in_Florida_USA) in March.

Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on April 18, 2019, 02:40:56 PM
'Decades of denial': major report finds New Zealand's environment is in serious trouble
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/18/decades-of-denial-major-report-finds-new-zealands-environment-is-in-serious-trouble

A report on the state of New Zealand’s environment has painted a bleak picture of catastrophic biodiversity loss, polluted waterways and the destructive rise of the dairy industry and urban sprawl.

Environment Aotearoa (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5954379-Environment-Aotearoa-2019-Embargoed.html) is the first major environmental report in four years, and was compiled using data from Statistics New Zealand and the environment ministry.

It presents a sobering summary of a country that is starkly different from the pristine landscape promoted in the “Pure New Zealand” marketing campaign that lures millions of tourists every year.

It found New Zealand is now considered one of the most invaded countries in the world, with 75 animal and plant species having gone extinct since human settlement. The once-vibrant bird life has fared particularly badly, with 90% of seabirds and 80% of shorebirds threatened with or at risk of extinction.

Almost two-thirds of New Zealand’s rare ecosystems are under threat of collapse, and over the last 15 years the extinction risk worsened for 86 species, compared with the conservation status of just 26 species improving in the past 10 years.


https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5954379-Environment-Aotearoa-2019-Embargoed.html

--------------------------

Mass deforestation: How trade fells trees in Brazil and Indonesia 
https://dw.com/en/mass-deforestation-how-trade-fells-trees-in-brazil-and-indonesia/a-48280649

... Persson and an international team of researchers have quantified how much foreign demand for commodities drives that destruction.

The study (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018314365), published last week, found that 29-39 percent of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released through deforestation is driven by international trade — with farmers felling forests to clear space for croplands, pastures and plantations that grow goods often consumed abroad.

In many rich countries, the authors wrote, the deforestation-related emissions "embodied" in imports are greater even than those generated by domestic agriculture.

(https://dw.com/image/48289943_7.png)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018314365
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 20, 2019, 01:00:28 PM
Rising groundwater at coastlines, river mouths from sea level rise is making those places less habitable:
https://baynature.org/article/the-sea-beneath-us/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 24, 2019, 07:46:22 PM
List of areas with the worst, and best, air (in the U.S.) at the link. Wildfires are a factor.

Report reveals worsening US air pollution, emissions concerns
Quote
A new report shows air pollution is getting worse in the US, and the current EPA’s efforts to weaken emissions regulations on cars and power plants are seen as a major threat to improving the state of affairs.

The American Lung Association released its 20th annual “State of the Air” report, which focuses on the years 2015-2017. In these years, “more cities had high days of ozone and short-term particle pollution compared to 2014-2016.” Many cities also suffered from increased levels of year-round particle pollution.

The report found that 141 million Americans — about 43% of the population — live in counties that have monitored unhealthy ozone and/or particle pollution. While that’s an increase from 2014-2016, it’s still a big improvement from 2012-2014, which saw 166 million Americans experience unhealthy pollution. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/04/24/state-of-air-pollution/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on April 24, 2019, 10:42:13 PM
An article on population change patterns across the USA:

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/fastest-growing-and-shrinking-counties-in-america-2019-4

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on April 26, 2019, 09:57:02 PM
oceans getting windier, wave height increasing since 2018:

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/04/26/australia/oceans-turbulent-study-scn-scli-intl/index.html

I have not yet found the paper, but it seems the southern ocean wind speed and wave height have increased by 8% and 5% respectively. If some does find the paper please post the reference.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: SteveMDFP on April 26, 2019, 10:19:49 PM
oceans getting windier, wave height increasing since 2018:

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/04/26/australia/oceans-turbulent-study-scn-scli-intl/index.html

I have not yet found the paper, but it seems the southern ocean wind speed and wave height have increased by 8% and 5% respectively. If some does find the paper please post the reference.

sidd

Mainstream press does such a crappy job with science reporting.  I think the study is this one:

Joint Calibration of Multiplatform Altimeter Measurements of Wind Speed and Wave Height over the Past 20 Years
Science. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aav9527 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aav9527) 
Global satellite data are analyzed to determine trends in oceanic wind speed and wave height over the 33-year period 1985 to 2018. The analysis uses an extensive database obtained from a total of 31 satellite missions comprising three independent instruments—altimeters, radiometers and scatterometers. The analysis shows small increases in mean wind speed and wave height over this period, with stronger increases in extreme conditions (90th percentiles). The strongest increases occur in the Southern Ocean. Confidence in the results is strengthened because the wind speed trends are confirmed by all three satellite systems. An extensive set of sensitivity analyses confirm that both the mean and 90th percentile trends are robust with non-significant impacts caused by satellite calibration and sampling patterns.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: sidd on April 26, 2019, 11:16:07 PM
Thanks for the reference.

sidd
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on May 10, 2019, 03:18:13 PM
Mexico's prized beaches threatened by smelly algae invasion
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-05-mexico-prized-beaches-threatened-smelly.html

Tourists looking for sun and sand in Mexican resorts like Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum have been disgusted by foul-smelling mounds of sargassum—a seaweed-like algae—piling up on beaches and turning turquoise waters brown, and experts are warning that it may be the new normal. 

Mexico's Riviera Maya Caribbean coast provides half the country's tourism revenues and very little sargassum reached it prior to 2014. But a possible combination of climate change, pollution from fertilizers and ocean flows and currents carrying the algae mats to the Caribbean has caused the problem to explode.

... While tourist arrivals at the Cancun airport were up 3.3% in March over the same month last year, many fear this will not last long with the sargassum befouling white sand beaches and blue waters, as well as the air—sargassum decomposes with a rotten egg smell. As it decays and sinks to the bottom, it can also smother the coral the Caribbean is known for, and accumulations on beaches can make it harder for sea turtles to nest.

"In my humble opinion it's a disaster that will eventually cripple the tourism, the businesses and, sad to say, destroy the local economy," said Jef A. Gardner, a frequent visitor to Playa del Carmen from Knoxville, Tennessee. "This is a Caribbean problem on the east coast that goes from Cancun all the way past Ambergris Caye in Belize."

The concerns may not be hyperbole: the sargassum mats appear even worse along parts of Mexico's coast than they did last year. And the problem affects almost all the islands and mainland beaches in the Caribbean to an extent. The U.S. Gulf coast got hit in 2014 and the east coast of Florida is getting sargassum this year.

... the sargassum mats appear to be the result of increased nutrient flows and ocean water upwelling that brings nutrients up from the bottom. Prevailing ocean currents carry the algae into the Caribbean, where it can grow further.  ... the cycle is not likely to stop anytime soon.

"Because of global climate change we may have increased upwelling, increased air deposition, or increased nutrient source from rivers, so all three may have increased the recent large amounts of sargassum," 


(https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/csz/news/800/2019/mexicosprize.jpg)
... Get Used To It!

... "You can clean up a beach, get it clean, imagine starting at 6 a.m. and by 11 a.m. you don't have any algae, and by 7 p.m. when the sun sets, it's full again," said Lopez.

This all makes people nostalgic for the days before 2014 when sargassum "was very little, very manageable, not a problem, not a risk, just barely a line" in the sand
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: vox_mundi on May 13, 2019, 05:18:02 PM
Delhi Hit By Rare Summer Air Pollution Alert
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-delhi-rare-summer-air-pollution.html

New Delhi suffered a rare summer air pollution alert Monday as dust storms and heat over northern India took smog to hazardous levels.

The world's most polluted capital city is blanketed in a toxic smog of car fumes, agricultural smoke and factory waste most winters, but it is less severe in summer months.

On Monday, the Indian government's air quality index hit "very poor" with PM 2.5 particles, the most harmful, at 154 micrograms per cubic metre, five times the normal safe level.

Clouds of dust swirled around the streets and many people brought out masks generally used in winter.

Pollution levels started rising the day after a top minister promised that Delhi's air would be clean in three years because of action taken by the government.

The Delhi region has been described as a "gas chamber" by the state's incumbent chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sebastian Jones on May 14, 2019, 02:49:18 AM
Mexico's prized beaches threatened by smelly algae invasion
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-05-mexico-prized-beaches-threatened-smelly.html

Tourists looking for sun and sand in Mexican resorts like Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum have been disgusted by foul-smelling mounds of sargassum—a seaweed-like algae—piling up on beaches and turning turquoise waters brown, and experts are warning that it may be the new normal. 
To a large degree, this is caused by the resorts' own poor or non-existent sewage treatment. Simply requiring resort communities to have decent sewage treatment would reduce the problem considerably. Of course it would not address the massive nutrient loading coming from American farms.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: ASILurker on May 14, 2019, 03:27:06 AM
Mexico's prized beaches threatened by smelly algae invasion
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-05-mexico-prized-beaches-threatened-smelly.html

Tourists looking for sun and sand in Mexican resorts like Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum have been disgusted by foul-smelling mounds of sargassum—a seaweed-like algae—piling up on beaches and turning turquoise waters brown, and experts are warning that it may be the new normal. 
To a large degree, this is caused by the resorts' own poor or non-existent sewage treatment. Simply requiring resort communities to have decent sewage treatment would reduce the problem considerably. Of course it would not address the massive nutrient loading coming from American farms.

Even though all this seaweed is coming from the Amazon basin region and moving north on the ocean currents?

It has nothing to do whatsoever with the "resorts in Mexico or American farms"
(if the news reports and their talking head scientists are accurate)
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 14, 2019, 02:13:53 PM
Mariana Trench: Deepest-ever sub dive finds plastic bag (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48230157) (BBC)
Quote

Humanity's impact on the planet was also evident with the discovery of plastic pollution. It's something that other expeditions using landers have seen before.

Millions of tonnes of plastic enter the oceans each year, but little is known about where a lot of it ends up.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sebastian Jones on May 16, 2019, 04:07:10 PM
Mexico's prized beaches threatened by smelly algae invasion
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-05-mexico-prized-beaches-threatened-smelly.html

Tourists looking for sun and sand in Mexican resorts like Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum have been disgusted by foul-smelling mounds of sargassum—a seaweed-like algae—piling up on beaches and turning turquoise waters brown, and experts are warning that it may be the new normal. 
To a large degree, this is caused by the resorts' own poor or non-existent sewage treatment. Simply requiring resort communities to have decent sewage treatment would reduce the problem considerably. Of course it would not address the massive nutrient loading coming from American farms.

Even though all this seaweed is coming from the Amazon basin region and moving north on the ocean currents?

It has nothing to do whatsoever with the "resorts in Mexico or American farms"
(if the news reports and their talking head scientists are accurate)
The article does not rule out pollution from resorts. It does reference increased fertilizer loads. Yes the sargassum comes from... the Sargasso sea, yes it is fed by upwelling nutrient rich water, yes other rivers than the Mississippi contribute but so too does untreated sewage and the monstrous amount of nutrients that flow into the gulf of Mexico from American farms.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: mitch on May 16, 2019, 05:15:32 PM
It is unlikely that it is pollution from resorts since the Yucatan Current runs along that coast at a 5 knot clip, moving North.  Playa de Carmen is not in that flow line. 
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: dbarce on May 16, 2019, 10:04:06 PM
The sargassum problem is way bigger than just Mexican beaches. It affects wide areas of the caribbean. I saw the problem first hand last year, and it was astonishing to see nature's capacity for disruption.

For anyone interested this website is a great resource for tracking sargassum blooms:

http://seas-forecast.com/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: wili on May 16, 2019, 10:11:18 PM
North Korea has become unlivable for other reasons, of course, but this can't be helping:

North Korea has said it is suffering its worst drought in 37 years

 
Quote
    ...the UN said that up to 10 million North Koreans were "in urgent need of food assistance".

    North Koreans had been surviving on just 300g (10.5 oz) of food a day so far this year, the UN report said.

    In the 1990s, a devastating famine is believed to have killed hundreds of thousands of North Koreans.

    There is no indication as yet that this drought will be as severe, but it follows a slew of warnings about poor harvests and crop damage across the country.....

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48290957
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 17, 2019, 09:11:19 PM
Many, many places.  But the answer is much the same as for climate change: dump fossil fuel use.

Air Pollution Is Slowly Killing Us All, New Global Study Claims
May 17th, 2019
Quote
A comprehensive global study by the International Respiratory Society’s Environmental Committee and published recently in CHEST, the official publication of the American College of Chest Physicians, claims that air pollution may be damaging every organ and virtually every cell in the human body. Here’s the executive summary of the report.

Air pollution poses a great environmental risk to health. Outdoor fine particulate matter (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) exposure is the fifth leading risk factor for death in the world, accounting for 4.2 million deaths and > 103 million disability-adjusted life years lost according to the Global Burden of Disease Report. The World Health Organization attributes 3.8 million additional deaths to indoor air pollution.

Air pollution can harm acutely, usually manifested by respiratory or cardiac symptoms, as well as chronically, potentially affecting every organ in the body. It can cause, complicate, or exacerbate many adverse health conditions. Tissue damage may result directly from pollutant toxicity because fine and ultrafine particles can gain access to organs, or indirectly through systemic inflammatory processes.

Susceptibility is partly under genetic and epigenetic regulation. Although air pollution affects people of all regions, ages, and social groups, it is likely to cause greater illness in those with heavy exposure and greater susceptibility. Persons are more vulnerable to air pollution if they have other illnesses or less social support. Harmful effects occur on a continuum of dosage and even at levels below air quality standards previously considered to be safe.

...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/17/air-pollution-is-slowly-killing-us-all-new-global-study-claims/
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 17, 2019, 11:15:45 PM
Retiring to Florida? Rent. Don't buy.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/05/13/former-wellington-management-partner-calls-long-term-florida-lending-insane/?slreturn=20190417170525
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: gerontocrat on May 19, 2019, 12:22:50 PM
Quote
Quote from: Juan C. García on Today at 04:09:13 AM
With the pollution in Mexico City and surrounding, I am starting to be sick, so I will go early to bed.
Can someone else post the JAXA data?
Thanks.


https://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-pollution-20190518-story.html
Smog chokes Mexico City as fires fan pollution
Quote
A smoky haze that has blanketed this capital for the past week is fraying nerves, spurring health worries and generating criticism of elected officials.

Authorities ordered Mexico City schools closed Thursday and Friday and urged people to stay indoors, as the photochemical miasma enveloping the metropolitan area, home to more than 20 million, failed to disperse.

Professional soccer games and other outdoor events were canceled as part of an emergency decree imposed on Tuesday, and the city government set driving limits to curb the number of vehicles in circulation. Many pedestrians and cyclists donned surgical masks.

The month of May, before the onset of summer rains, traditionally brings the worst air quality of the year to Mexico City, which lies in a high-altitude valley where vehicular and industrial fumes are trapped. A heat wave and sparse winds have made things worse.

This year, however, authorities say fires raging outside the city have exacerbated the problem as smoke has converged above the city and environs, mixing with a toxic brew of contaminants. Measuring stations have found dangerously high levels of tiny particulates, viewed as especially hazardous because they can damage people’s respiratory and cardiovascular systems.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/may/17/air-pollution-may-be-damaging-every-organ-and-cell-in-the-body-finds-global-review
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: be cause on May 19, 2019, 12:59:53 PM
Juan's plight makes me realise how lucky I am even though a neighbour's burning of plastics and waste oil recently caused my first athsma attack in over 30 years .. At least I was able to get it stopped . The thought of 20 million people struggling to breath and stay well , trapped in a huge Shitty has me struggling to hold back the tears .. b.c.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: P-maker on May 19, 2019, 04:48:19 PM
Losing Juan and his daily updates from Mexico due to air pollution, would be a tragedy in itself.  Having not heard from Terry in Canada for a while, may also be related to adverse life conditions in those tracts. Please do not let this blog clientel turn into a death society/community, which voluntarily exposes itself to all kinds of hostile climates, adverse air pollution incidents and climate change science denier's shootouts.
Title: Re: Places becoming less livable
Post by: CalamityCountdown on May 19, 2019, 06:35:53 PM
Farmers and officials in Illinois and Missouri are desperately battling floodwaters along the Mississippi River. They’re also battling each other.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-endangered-mississippi-river-illinois-missouri-20190510-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-endangered-mississippi-river-illinois-missouri-20190510-story.html)

<click on above link to view photos accompanying this article>

Quote
From unpaved Swain Slough Road, past scrubby bottomlands and two lonely oak trees, the mound of grass-covered earth stretches beyond the tree line as far as the eye can see. Stacks of white canvas sandbags and mounds of dirty sand line the crest of the giant berm, holding back the rushing waters beyond.

Not visible from the base of the levee, the Mississippi River is only a few feet away, mud-green and roiling as it slices a meandering border between Illinois and Missouri. The levee is the only obstacle preventing the water from pouring into the farms and fields of Pike County, Ill., a sprawling expanse of no-stoplight towns and rolling hills southeast of Quincy at the western edge of the state.

On this serene spring evening, quiet except for the whistling red-winged blackbirds, bellowing frogs and distant purr of ATVs beyond McCraney Creek, it’s hard to imagine this is the epicenter of an emotional clash dividing neighbors and states on both sides of America’s most famous river.

The pitched battle over the patchwork of human-made levees designed to control the river has led one environmental group, American Rivers, to name a section of the river, from Muscatine, Iowa, to Hamburg, Ill., about 75 miles northwest of St. Louis, one of America’s 10 “most endangered rivers.”

“This river is very important to the United States of America, and they’re treating it like it’s not,” said Nancy Guyton, who owns land in Missouri, across the river and downstream from the levee. “This river is being abused.”

Flooding in the Chicago area has been so bad in the past decade that only places ravaged by hurricanes sustain more damage.

The remnants of this spring’s massive flooding remain on Guyton’s farm field near tiny Annada, Mo. Guyton and her husband normally grow corn and soybeans there, but the field is submerged in a sheet of murky water that laps up to the railroad tracks at the border of town. At the water’s edge, a blanket of washed-up corn husks, corn cobs, splintered tree limbs and stumps litter the landscape.

The scene is quite different behind the levee a dozen miles to the north on the Illinois side of the river. Tractors belch smoke as they pull giant plows across the land. Field after field is planted with neat rows of crops, tiny tufts of green poking up through the rich soil.

Levees like the one owned and maintained by the Sny Island Levee Drainage District, a taxing body created after the Civil War, are at the center of an ongoing debate over flood control, river management, environmental philosophy and the basic concept of whether humans can, and should, try to control nature.

“The water’s gotta go somewhere,” said Robert Criss, a professor of earth and planetary science at Washington University in St. Louis who studies Mississippi River water levels and flooding. “We’re trying to choke off the river. It’s like clogging up your arteries with a bunch of cholesterol.”

Water wars
The way American Rivers frames the issue, a series of “illegal” levees along both sides of the river in three states, Illinois, Iowa and Missouri, is threatening more than 170,000 acres of flood plain and farmland, increasing the flood risk for farmers, small towns and cities along the banks, inundating riverside habitats and changing the flow of the river.

The environmental group’s main gripe is that levees are being built too high — “raised” is the term used — without the required permits and approvals. Combined with other man-made navigation structures, such as wing dikes, dams and locks, the infrastructure, even if made of sand and earth, is changing the character of the river and the surrounding habitat, said Eileen Shader of American Rivers.

But many of the levee districts, the agencies in control of many of the earthen berms up and down the river, say they are not only operating in good faith and within the law, but operating to protect the farms, towns, houses and roadways that dot the landscape along the Mississippi. And those on the Illinois side are skeptical about the bellyaching from their counterparts across the river, questioning why they are being blamed for natural disasters caused by heavier recent rainfall and a pulsing river.

Mike Reed, the superintendent of the Sny Island levee district, said “flood control works,” and he simply disagrees that levees are making matters worse along the river. The Sny Island levee, Reed said, protects interstates 72 and 172 near Quincy, the highway bridges from Illinois into Hannibal and the town of Louisiana in Missouri, two cross-country railroad lines and several towns, in addition to farmland. Since the record flood of 1993, he said, the district has only raised its levees in a way that would affect the water level downstream in Missouri one other time, in 2008, and that action was by the books because of emergency declarations.

“Any improvement done to the system is done within the rules and regulations at the time,” Reed said. “Some people, especially those to the south, are trying to say that our levees are raising the flood levels on them. That’s just not true. It’s inaccurate.”

What happens when Lake Superior has too much water? It dumps it into an already overflowing Lake Michigan. »

Amy Larson, president of the National Waterways Conference, a group