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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2019, 08:14:49 PM »
NSIDC  Data as at 24 June 2019 (5 day trailing average)

And to finish - the Okhotsk, the Hudson & my favourite, the St. Lawrence

The Okhotsk maxed above the 2010's average, melted out very fast and approached zero well before the 2010's average.

The Hudson is melting out at the 2000's average but a week or so ahead of 2018. It will be done as near as makes no difference in 5 weeks or even less.

The St. Lawrence. The universal opinion is that there is zero ice here. Spurious, artefacts***. Huh, you're all a bunch of unbelievers. The graph proves it!!!
_________________________________________________________
*** artefact - something observed in a scientific investigation or experiment that is not naturally present but occurs as a result of the preparative or investigative procedure.
___________________________________________________________________

After all that,
NSIDC September average will be 4.25 million km2.
JAXA daily extent minimum will be 4.00 million km2, on October 1st to cause maximum confusion

I have decided this using royal privilege.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2019, 07:50:03 PM »
NSIDC  Data as at 24 June 2019 (5 day trailing average)

The CAA, the Beaufort Sea & the 3.2 million KM2 Central Arctic Sea/Basin (aka The Big Beast) are worth considering as a group.

The CAA is losing area well above the 2010's average rate. And note how it looks like it just might avoid the 3 week hiatus in area loss that seems to be usual at this time. A bit of a mystery as the CAA has been a bit cool recently.

The Beaufort Sea quickly lost area to become lowest by the beginning of June. Then on the 10th June area loss stalled and then area started to increase to the extent that on this day area is 5th lowest in the satellite record. Much discussion on the melting season thread about changes in drift and wind affecting the Beaufort gyre.  The melting out of the Beaufort is delayed. (Caveat - volume/thickness)

The Central Arctic Basin area loss to date is well below the 2010's average. But the season has barely started so is of little significance. Of interest is that the lowest minimum was in 2016, not 2012. Perhaps this reflects loss of multi-year ice between 2012 and 2016. There is little doubt that this loss of multi-year ice has continued.

If the Arctic is reasonably warm from now on perhaps the volume and thickness of the Central Arctic Sea is critical ?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2019, 03:29:24 PM »
NSIDC Greenland Sea Data as at 24 June 2019 (5 day trailing average)

Papers written some years ago said that 90% of the ice leaving the Arctic Ocean was transported by the East Greenland current. So at this time melting is at war with fresh ice arriving from the Fram. At the moment, melting is winning. The NSIDC map shows this very well indeed. (look from South to North)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2019, 02:06:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,698,353  km2
                        
Total Area         
 7,698,353    km2      
-265,666    km2   <   2010's average.
-312,713    k   <   2018
-890,044    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -118    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__   -63    k   loss
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____   -20    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__   -18    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -23    k   loss
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -27    k   loss

Area loss 118 k, 32 K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 86 k on this day.
EDIT
Total area 3rd 4th lowest 5th lowest, (31k greater than 2007, 74k greater than 2016, and 220k greater than 2012).

2012 is the front runner as regards area.
Other Stuff
Until the weekend GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +0.9 to +1.9 degrees celsius. During this time the images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.

Over the weekend the picture changes somewhat. By Monday the CAA gets warmer, NW Canada and Alaska get a lot colder, and on the Russian side warmth moves west into areas bordering the Laptev and Kara, while the ESS area switches from strong warmth to a cold snap. However, over the Arctic Ocean itself there is a modest +ve  temp anomaly. Overall the Arctic temp anomaly stays well below 1 degree celsius.

A complicated picture.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last three days after retreating to well below average during the few days before.
________________________________________________________________________
Extent and area showing marked difference. See next post(s).

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2019, 09:13:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,597,909 km2(June 24, 2019)

- Extent is 5th 6th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 61 k, 16 k less than the average loss on this day of 77 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,673 k, 134 k (3.0 %) greater than the average of 4,539 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 45.9% of the melting season done, with 81 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.26 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.08 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.36 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.18 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

Until the weekend GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +0.9 to +1.9 degrees celsius. During this time the images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.

Over the weekend the picture changes somewhat. By Monday the CAA gets warmer, NW Canada and Alaska get a lot colder, and on the Russian side warmth moves west into areas bordering the Laptev and Kara, while the ESS area switches from strong warmth to a cold snap. However, over the Arctic Ocean itself there is a modest +ve  temp anomaly. Overall the Arctic temp anomaly stays well below 1 degree celsius.

A complicated picture.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines.
Apart from 2 days, over the last 3 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.
_____________________________________________________________________
The volume data for June should be available by late next week. It will be interesting to see what has happened to volume and perhaps more importantly, thickness during this month.

6
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 23, 2019, 10:09:52 PM »
As the years go by, the length of time that the Laptev Sea is mostly open water has greatly increased. Obviously that increases the chances of significant ocean warming, and being so shallow, warming of the sea floor.

Obviously this is likely to accelerate melting of the permafrost lid. After reading all the papers my own guess is yes, it will happen, but how much and how quickly....... ?

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: June 23, 2019, 09:17:47 PM »
Equinor, Statoil as was, is 67% owned by the citizens of Norway through the government. The rest is in the market. That gives some comfort.

Big business including fossil fuel companies are obviously moving into renewables in a big way, as are the big automotive manufacturers moving into EVs. Obviously the main motive is survival, closely followed by handouts from us via our Governments.

And while they are delivering the goods, we will be screwed (again).

Promises of a green energy jobs boom in Scotland are proving to be so much hot air
Kevin McKenna
The government stands accused of failing to protect workers as it sold off projects to EDF and other foreign firms.

Quote
There has been almost £5bn of investment in offshore renewables in Scotland that, if properly managed and negotiated, could amount to several thousand sustainable and skilled jobs. According to the GMB, only 100 temporary jobs currently derive from this. In this global sector, we are often taking a penknife to a gunfight, with foreign-owned outfits heavily backed by governments that underwrite losses.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/23/promises-of-green-energy-jobs-boom-in-scotland-so-much-hot-air

And as a "screwee" my wish for those who are doing it to us is - to die soon, to die slowly, and to die in great pain.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 23, 2019, 09:42:42 AM »

Polynya = cracks?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynya

Open water with sea ice around it? When I used the term that's what I meant - maybe I should stick to English   ;D
Tor Bejnar posted this on the SMOS thread

I don't recall ever seeing the term "flaw polynya" before, and it took some searching to find a definition, finally (from here):
Quote
flaw polynyas (band-like ice-free areas), which form
simultaneously with land-fast ice in November. Flaw polynyas
reach tens of kilometres in width and migrate out of fast ice
hundreds of kilometres northward (Smolyanitsky et al., 2003),
and here
Quote
A polynya is defined as any nonlinear-shaped area of open water and/or sea ice cover < 30 cm thick enclosed by a much thicker ice cover (WMO 1970). It can be restricted on one side by a coast, terrned shore polynyas, or bounded by fast ice, termed flaw polynyas.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 23, 2019, 09:09:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,728,067 km2(June 22, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 87 k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day of 74 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,543 k, 156 k (3.6 %) greater than the average of 4,387 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 44.4% of the melting season done, with 83 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.23 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.05 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.34 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.16 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.1 degrees celsius  during the next week. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Until the last 2 days, over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.

Will above average daily extent loss be sustained?
Will area loss follow suit and return to at least average daily loss levels?

10
June 2019 SIPN report is out:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2019/june

Tealight (Nico Sun) has been very busy. Look for "Sun" in the tables and and images in the report.

Extract from his submission on SIE September Monthly Average.
Median 4.40
Ranges 3.73-4.88 Standard Deviations
His submission also tells you how he did it and the equations he used.

I wonder what Tealight has come up with so far for the JAXA daily extent minimum (and NSIDC and/or AMSR2 area).

Heuristic Estimates

The image from the report attached summarises the results by method, one of which is "heuristic" defined by Wikipedia as follows.
Quote
A heuristic technique (/hjʊəˈrɪstɪk/; Ancient Greek: εὑρίσκω, "find" or "discover"), often called simply a heuristic, is any approach to problem solving or self-discovery that employs a practical method, not guaranteed to be optimal, perfect, logical, or rational, but instead sufficient for reaching an immediate goal. Where finding an optimal solution is impossible or impractical, heuristic methods can be used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution.

Heuristics can be mental shortcuts that ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Examples that employ heuristics include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, a guesstimate, profiling, or common sense.

Extract from a heuristic submission. I think the guy who did it is a hero for what he does. All credit to him for chucking in his submission.

"Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language.

email rec'd 11:00 pm (AKDT) on12 June: Hi Betsy, Well we just got back from the historic last
C-130H mission from USCG Air Station Kodiak. The long serving Hs are being replaces by the
C-130J model. Our Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Survey (SIZRS) flight was successful.
We flew up 150°W making oceanographic stations with expendable probes every degree fro 72
to 76 and then flew back at higher altitude doing atmospheric dropsonde drops. Notable ice
observations are that the ice edge has already retreated to 72°N and there was a lot of open water even up to 76°. The snow is already gone.

I usually try to do a little more analysis of trends for the year around the Arctic Ocean and look at the AO, but no time for that; it’s already midnight Pacific Daylight Time. To be any later and still be on the 12th, I’d have to be in Hawaii. So after exhausting if not exhaustive deliberation with my SIZRS colleges over pizza at the last eatery still open Kodiak, and considering the ice we saw today, my fresh from looking out the window is 3.8 million square km average Sept 2019 ice extent. Method would be politely called heuristic, and as ever the outlook recognizes that this summer's weather trumps everything else and is for the most part unknowable.

Best regards, Jamie
______________________________________________________________
Marvellous. So from now on, when someone asks me how on earth I come to and/or justify a result or comment my answer will be "using heuristic techniques when examination of the various data sources". Sounds much better than "dunno, sorta guess".
_______________________________________________________

11
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 22, 2019, 11:25:50 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :  12,763,937  km2(June 21, 2019)

Extent gains suddenly increased strongly in the last 3 days .
However, 2019 remains lowest in the satellite record (for 71 days this year), extent now just 74 k below 2017 and 675k below 2018.

- Extent gain on this day 154k, 54 k more than the average gain of 100 k on this day.
- Extent gain from minimum is 10.339 million km2, 0.950 million km2 (8.4%) less than the average of 11.289 million km2 by this day,
- 70.6% of average extent gain done, with 87 days to the average date of maximum (16 Sept).

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of the last 10 years gives a max of 17.48 million km2, 0.58 million km2 less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 22, 2019, 07:19:52 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 21 June 2019 :  22,578,517 km2

In the last 2 weeks Arctic extent loss was well below average, and while Antarctic extent gain was up and down around the average. Extent remained lowest, now for 72 days this year, 66 days in a row.

But the last 3 days saw very high Antarctic Sea Ice gain, while in 2017 for those 3 days global extent dropped. As a result Global extent is now in 2nd place, 12 k above 2017, but 849 k below 2018.

- extent gain on this day 56 k, 26 k more than the the average gain of 30 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 6.33 million km2, 1.13 million km2 (15%) less than the average gain of 7.46 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 82,7% of extent gain done and 136 days to maximum, but before that there is a false maximum (in July) and a false minimum (in September) before the (usually) true maximum around the 4th of November.

The Perils of Projections
The last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.14 million km2,  0.5 million km2 more than the record low maximum in 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

Being a combination of two separate pieces of data volatility is often very high. Confidence in any projection is even lower than normal. However, the JAXA extent data so far does not point to a change to the usual pattern of a false maximum in July, a false min in Aug/Sep and a final max in early November.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 21, 2019, 09:38:16 PM »
I used to like this thread.
So did I.

14
A blob of snow on the Central Siberian shore, and directly opposite snow on the CAA and the Canadian mainland adjoining refuse to die. (and a tiny blob in the Torngat mountains and North East Canadian coast. The Quebec glacial sheet lives!)

15
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: June 21, 2019, 03:56:37 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 20 June 2019

A bit to my surprise melt was even a bit stronger and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was again low in most of Greenland except for in the North West, which was enough to reduce daily SMB mass loss to average. Below average Albedo expanding to higher elevations in the interior.

My prediction that belongs to me is that melt, Friday to Sunday ahead is likely to moderate but perhaps still stay above average.. But perhaps from Monday onwards higher melt gain, even reaching the very far north?
 
Precipitation in the next week is looking like moderate precipitation in the NorthWest becoming more general across Greenland. At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some of this will fall as rain.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a more average rate?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 21, 2019, 03:28:09 PM »
The number of posts correlates with melting. The latest data seems extremely bad for ice. :)

It is inspiring to see real science in action, Aluminium.   One day someone will thank you for this.    :)
Ah.. but.. Cause & Effect ?

When there is a significant increase in melting there is lot more posting on the Arctic Sea Ice Area and Extent data thread. You see that also on the Global Sea Ice Area and Extent thread - perhaps even more strikingly. I also see that my graphs and tables get looked at a lot more on that thread at such times. Does the same thing happen on the Melting Season thread as people look to see why the sudden melt has happened? In this case the cause is melting almost immediately followed by a spike in postings?

Then there are the occasions when the melting season posts correctly predict the Panzer divisons blitzkreiging and blowtorching the Arctic. So the correlation works well.

Then there are also times when the weather models let the side down. So in this case a spike in postings presage following days of limited melt.

Not that I will be dragging through the history on these threads to quantify and then analyse the data. Nor would I be so cruel as to expect Aluminum to expand his interesting exercise into a major project, extending into all times of the year. (Winter is also getting very interesting as maxima reach new lows)

Back to the data.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 10:18:06 PM »
Kara Area (to 19 June), Volume (to 15 June), Thickness (to 15 June)  attached.

Slow beginnings.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: June 20, 2019, 09:14:42 PM »
to kick this misconception into the bin is attached

One of many visualisations that have failed to understand the way energy is utilized.

Can you give us more detail rather than just a simple dismissal?

Let's assume, just for the sake of the argument, that 100x100 miles of solar panels would generate as many TWh of electricity as the US uses annually.  How much storage would it take to turn that output into a 24/365 reliable electricity source for the US?
--

Obviously a 100% solar feed is not optimal.  The best solution will involve wind and other renewables as their inclusion lowers the need for storage.  But just play along and explain your thinking regarding 100% solar and storage.
For goodness' sake. It was a simple visual. No-one is suggesting that a 100 x 100 mile solar plant will be built.

No-one is suggesting that wind is not a major source as well.

We all know various storage mechanisms will be required, batteries, hydro and maybe still some LNG plants as extra back-up.

We all know that utilities will need to change their grids and computerised management systems to deal with a new pattern of electricity production, storage and consumption.

Most of us on this forum know that we can get most of the way to zero-carbon electricity with the technology that already exists. (And that is known by many of the Republicans on Capitol Hill)

I also believe that carbon will have to be captured. The concern is that many of the solutions mooted will make new problems greater than the one they are supposed to solve.

And that's all I'm going to say about that

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 06:38:57 PM »
Amount of ice is defined not just by extent and area, but by the combination of area and thickness (and extent is really not needed). Thickness is missing here.

How on Earth anybody would properly conclude "more ice in general in that location" based on those couple graphs only - i honestly don't know. "Suspect"? Sure, doable. "Likely"? Perhaps. But for sure? Hell no.
Just for you..
- NSIDC Area,
- PIOMAS Volume,
- Thickness - PIOMAS Volume divided by NSIDC area

I think they all say a bit of a hiccup in Beaufort's record losses to date.

NOTE: Volume and thickness to 15th June, area to 19th June

20
Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: June 20, 2019, 04:19:23 PM »
Quote
"No, we ain't gonna lose all the glaciers by 2030.. three might last 'til 2050". Whoopee.
I agree with the sentiment, although on these threads we are often 'arguing' about when the first BOE will occur (for example), with a difference of opinion within a decade or so. These Montanan glaciers, albeit minor players in the scheme of things (unless you are in Glacier National Park or down stream), have scientists disagreeing on more than 2 decades.
Those Montanan glaciers are not going to have a good summer according to the weather people.
Nor will the Alaskan Glaciers or those lumps of ice on land on the islands of the CAA.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:59:29 PM »
As others have said

This is going to happen at peak.

A question on the graph.  Intuitively, it seems like the 60 degree line should be in between the 90 and 30 degree lines.   Why is the 60 degree isolation lower than 30?
The impact of longer daylight hours is greater than the impact of the sun's lower angle on the heat per square metre on the surface. The brainiacs have produced loads of standard tables on it.

I tried doing some work on that but my brain said "you aren't a pure maths undergrad anymore". (And anyway I spent far too much time in the bar and the snooker room).

22
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: June 20, 2019, 08:15:00 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 19 June 2019

Melt was strong and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was low in most of Greenland except for in the North West, which was enough to reduce daily SMB mass loss to average.

My prediction that belongs to me is that melt, in the days ahead is likely to moderate but perhaps still stay above average..
 
Precipitation in the next week is looking like moderate precipitation in the NorthWest becoming more general across Greenland. If GFS is to be believed, it is possible that a river of rain starting in Western Siberia will cross the entire Arctic, arriving at the northern tip of Greenland in about one weeks time.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a lower rate?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
[/quote]

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: June 19, 2019, 08:31:30 PM »
The Great Lakes covered in solar panels and wind turbines, the price of the future?

No, you hugely, hugely overestimate the amount of land required for a 100% RE future.  Some wind turbines not too far from major population centers (minimize transmission costs while minimizing aesthetic objections).  And no floating solar installation on large bodies of water subject to major storms and major ice events.
One thing that Musk has got about right.

Quote
“If you wanted to power the entire United States with solar panels, it would take a fairly small corner of Nevada or Texas or Utah; you only need about 100 miles by 100 miles of solar panels to power the entire United States,” Musk said at at the event in Rhode Island. “The batteries you need to store the energy, so you have 24/7 power, is 1 mile by 1 mile. One square-mile.”

One of many visualisations that have failed to kick this misconception into the bin is attached

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« on: June 19, 2019, 12:33:37 PM »
As usual I have given my laptop a hernia by making it digest the PIOMAS data from Wipneus.
Firstly, the standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data.

2019 Volume has taken a tumble in these two brief weeks.
2019 volume now less than 2018 by 1,324 km3 (7.6%).

Data that backs up numerous observations in the melting thread regarding the condition of the ice in the melting thread - e.g.s  highly mobile, fractured, disintegrating, rubble,dispersed.

Will it continue?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 19, 2019, 08:16:38 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  10,036,880 km2(June 18, 2019)

- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 68 k, 10 k MORE than the average loss on this day of 58 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,234 k, 126 k (3.1 %) greater than the average of 4,108 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 41.6% of the melting season done, with 87 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.26 million km2, 5th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.08 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.38 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.20 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +1.4 to +2.2 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and the Kara Seas.

A day of  above average extent loss in contrast to the series of daily extent losses that have been below average for the last 2 weeks. Melt remains only marginally above average. Average remaining melt data still points towards minimum well above 2012 and 2nd to 5th lowest. 2/5ths of the average melt in the season is now completed.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 18, 2019, 11:43:02 PM »
Where does the BEIGE pixel chart update?
The links are both there.

All the SMOS maps are here. The page updates daily by adding the new daily maps at the bottom - so you have to scroll to the bottom. The specific map I post is [date]_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png

For the current chart I think you can go directly to it at https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/thin-ice-thickness/

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2019, 04:58:42 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ? if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it ;)

So there is Rich saying this thread is only for book-keeping,
and
there is magnamentis saying as we can see it ourselves why post the numbers.

Some days I get a bit hacked off.

But there are a lot of people on this forum who don't have access to the numbers. So, to quote Dorothy Parker:-

Resumé

Razors pain you;
Rivers are damp;
Acids stain you;
And drugs cause cramp.
Guns aren’t lawful;
Nooses give;
Gas smells awful;
You might as well live.

28
So sad that Australia was not so long ago ready to lead, we were once known as a great and generous nation. Where did we go so wrong.
Take heart NevB, at least the new South Australia Government is going for it - and its a Liberal Govt. And not just blah blah, lots of specific projects. Worth a good read.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australias-stunning-aim-to-be-net-100-per-cent-renewables-by-2030/
South Australia’s stunning aim to be “net” 100 per cent renewables by 2030


https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-looks-to-evs-to-flatten-solar-duck-curve-55609/
South Australia looks to EVs to flatten solar duck curve
Quote
South Australia’s Liberal government is looking to go where its federal counterparts fear to tread, and will shortly unveil an electric vehicle strategy designed to lower emissions in transport and solve some of the key challenges of its  high renewables grid.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2019, 02:21:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,286,213 km2
               
Total Area         
 8,286,213    km2      
-336,884    km2   <   2010's average.
-467,883    k   <   2018
-1,007,195    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -102    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas__   -55    k   loss
Other Seas___   -20    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -14    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -25    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -20    k   loss

Area loss 102 k, 18 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 120 k on this day.
Total area 2nd lowest (again) (60 k less than 2016, and 280 k greater than 2012).
2012 is definitely the front runner as regards area now.

Other Stuff
GFS showing more logical temperature anomalies at +0.9 to +2.2 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies at various times along most of  the coastal fringes of the entire coastal fringe of the Arctic Ocean, except for contrasting and strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and sea by and in the Beaufort and the Kara Seas.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
After 2 days with daily area losses in the stratosphere, losses have quickly retreated to below average.

(Daily extent losses have also been at or a bit below average - an average of 50k per day this month to date.)
_______________________________________________________________

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: June 18, 2019, 01:19:50 PM »
The scientists have invented a new toy for themselves - the cryoegg. I hope it doesn't get squashed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48638958
'Cryoegg' to explore under Greenland Ice Sheet
Quote
UK scientists head to Greenland this week to trial new sensors that can be placed under its 2km-thick ice sheet.

The instruments are designed to give researchers unique information on the way glaciers slide towards the ocean.

Dubbed "Cryoeggs", the devices will report back on the behaviour of the meltwaters that run beneath the ice.

This water acts to lubricate the flow of glaciers, and in a warmer world could increase the volume of ice discharged to the ocean.

This would push up global sea levels - potentially by as much as 7m, if all the ice on Greenland were to melt.

Scientists want to understand how fast the process could unfold.

"Our models have done a fantastic job so far in building a picture of what might happen, but they've essentially been working blind because we have so little data from the bed of the Greenland ice sheet," said Dr Liz Bagshaw from Cardiff University.

"We have some measurements from cabled instruments and from the bottom of boreholes, but we don't have enough data to figure out what's going on across the whole of the ice sheet, to determine how much of that 7m might end up in the ocean," she told BBC News.

31
Consequences / Re: Water wars
« on: June 17, 2019, 05:24:42 PM »
Violence is increasing

https://packages.trust.org/running-dry/index.html
Competing for water on a thirsty planet

Quote
Around the world, fresh water is fast becoming a dangerously scarce resource, driving a surge in fights to secure supplies and fears over rising numbers of deaths in water conflicts.
In the 1990s, conflicts driven by water scarcity led to about 350 deaths, in places from Yemen to Nigeria, according to the chronology based on news reports and other sources.

But in the last five years, at least 3,000 people - and perhaps more than 10 times that many, if estimates of refugee deaths by Medicins Sans Frontieres are included - have died in clashes related to water in a huge range of countries, it noted.

"We see conflicts over water, unfortunately, almost everywhere around the world now as competition grows over the scarce resource," said Peter Gleick, co-founder of the California-based Pacific Institute.

"If you look at the number of conflicts over water in the past few decades, it's going up exponentially."

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 02:40:25 PM »
Tealight's graphs show Albedo Warming Potential graphs still chasing 2016 for 2nd place.
One of the reasons I am still plonking for 2nd place area and extent minimum this year (at 4 million km2 JAXA daily extent minimum so a lot above 2012).

33
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 17, 2019, 11:59:56 AM »
I can't find the emergency exit ivica. I'm trapped.

I've found it. Some fool has gone and locked it.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 16, 2019, 08:32:05 PM »
Every day the USA has a few more climate refugees - not immigrants,  citizens of the USA.

A street in Charleston? is zoned  for demolition and to be returned to wetland. The houseowners are being paid off and leaving.

In New Jersey the government is still trying to get houseowners to move as where they live cannot be protected from the next surge.

Some farmers and residents along the USA's great rivers have been flooded out once too often and for too long. They are abandoning the land - i.e. they are climate refugees.

This is the here and now, not some Armageddon in the future.

It will get worse before it gets better. It will only get better if people get off the fence and DO something about it.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:22:59 PM »
Some background data - maps

1. Geography,
2. Bathymetry.

Will the US Secretary of the Navy carry out his promise to pollute the NW Passage with his presence this summer ?

To do so he will need a big boat 'cos he is a big-shot and so will need the Parry Channel open - unless PUTIN sends some icebreakers to do it for him if nature is unwilling.  At the moment the Parry Channel is solid with ice (image from JASMES site using JAXA MSR2 data attached). This is in contrast with many other parts of the CAA.

Question
The Parry Channel is pretty deep apart from a 100 metre or so bit where the channel narrows in the Barrow Strait. Do we know id there are any sub-surface currents flowing (in either direction) through it?

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 04:32:46 PM »
in all the years that I've been watching the ice in the Arctic, the CAA has always seemed to me to be totally "out of it", i.e. not really part of the Arcic Sea Ice proper. It doesn't really move, it doesn't take part in any exciting developments, it sometimes melts enough to allow cruise ships to sail through - but to give it any major linchpin significance in crash-predictions seems to me to be totally spurious.
I agree.

I made a set of graphs looking at how the various seas are transforming from icy deserts to open water seas. The CAA is one of a few seas where one would think that global warming has passed it by.


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 04:25:45 PM »
I looked and found

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

Gerontocrat, I very much appreciate such links. Is there a way to collect them and make them permanently and easily accessible here in the forum, maybe vía a dedicated thread?
I have a forest of environment bookmarks kept on google to solve my problem.

I did open an Arctic Background Data thread. Perhaps these links could be parked there from time to time. But it's Sunday, and time for me to be a lazy slob.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 12:31:58 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.

In dire need of a pretty picture of Jun 15 sea ice, I looked and found

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

which is also University of Bremen.

So here is a pretty picture. Plenty of other stuff there.

39
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: June 16, 2019, 11:03:58 AM »
Way to go .....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48624784
Chinese tombs yield earliest evidence of cannabis use
Quote
The study suggests cannabis was being smoked at least 2,500 years ago, and that it may have been associated with ritual or religious activities.

Traces of the drug were identified in wooden burners from the burials. The cannabis had high levels of the psychoactive compound THC, suggesting people at the time were well aware of its effects.

Cannabis plants have been cultivated in East Asia for their oily seeds and fibre from at least 4,000 BC. But the early cultivated varieties of cannabis, as well as most wild populations, had low levels of THC and other psychoactive compounds.

The burners, or braziers, were found at Jirzankal Cemetery, high up in the Pamir Mountains.

The scientists think ancient people put cannabis leaves and hot stones in the braziers and inhaled the resulting smoke.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 16, 2019, 09:26:27 AM »
From a newspaper that changed its mind about AGW not very long ago (but is still pretty vile) a stunning set of photos and drone footage.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7099091/Rodger-Price-films-stunning-blue-Iceberg-melt-pond-coast-Bacon-Cove-Newfoundland.html


41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 16, 2019, 12:02:17 AM »
Hi Gerontocrat .. would an open Nares make a difference when comparing 2019 with 2012 with regard to Fram export and  the current state of the Greenland sea ?
  The difference cannot be measured but may mean that your analysis underplays the potential for high Arctic melt this season .. b.c.
As an avid reader of the Nares Strait thread I can only agree. Not only does it seem that the flow of ice down has been strong, it also seems that it has demonstrated that the ice going down its gullet from the Lincoln Sea has been in really poor shape.

But-- still over 60% of the melt to go.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 11:14:44 PM »
The image is from Worldview from today from the ice that has exited the Fram Strait, and now lies on the east coast of Greenland.  This ice is now in direct sunshine and is also subject to warm winds and is taking a tremendous beating.
To veer  from the vexed question of satellite measurement uncertainty.....

The Greenland Sea is really interesting this year. The graph attached shows that recently sea ice area has appeared to stall for some time, a great difference from say 2018. In that year the July August melt just did not happen (because ice in the main Arctic was not thinned by export through the Fram?).

But I don't think melt has stalled in 2019. It is a battle between import of ice from the Fram vs ongoing strong melt. Note that Greenland Sea ice area in 2012 was even higher and also very slow to reduce. This maybe suggests that there is a higher chance this year of higher melt in the main arctic ocean later in contrast to 2018.

Note also from the NSIDC sea ice concentration map  that although the sea ice extent of the northern half off Greenland's East coast is at the 1981-2010 average, the Southern half is almost ice-free and well below average. One wonders how much ice would survive in the Greenland Sea even as early as now if not for a continuous fresh supply of ice.

43
Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: June 15, 2019, 10:50:03 PM »
The link below is to a new paper gives a real insight into the measurement of Arctic Sea Ice.
If the writers were business people they would have called it "A SWOT Analysis".

For example the the paper talks at length about the deficiencies and difficulties in the measurement of ice thickness. Loads of stuff about loads of other data types as well.

It also gives more data on the parlous state of the existing satellites used, especially for sea ice extent and area. The only possible stand-by if failure happens soon is a Chinese series of satellites already up there. (Can you see Trump allowing NASA to ask China to bail them out?)
 
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab09b3
Essential gaps and uncertainties in the understanding of the roles and functions of Arctic sea ice

Really worth a read

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 08:12:16 PM »

I assume that the 5 day trailing averages you often use on graphs, smoothing data, are useful in leaving us less susceptible to such uncertainty distorting our view of the changes in the ice.  Is this assumption warranted or is there something I don't know? 

And another quick question:   Let us say that the uncertainty stated above  is 50,000 sq km, then does that mean the uncertainty is plus or minus 25,000 sq km or plus or minus 50,000 sq km?
NSIDC does say the area measurements are more prone to error which is why the prefer to use the 5 day trailing average.

I am so good to you. A paper by the gurus of gurus, especially Walter Meier. (You know he is of the best as he is a regular target of realclimate.org and wattsupwiththat).

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf52c/pdf

Quote
Abstract
The uncertainties in sea ice extent (total area covered by sea ice with concentration >15%) derived from passive microwave sensors are assessed in two ways. Absolute uncertainty (accuracy) is evaluated based on the comparison of the extent between several products. There are clear biases between the extent from the different products that are of the order of 500 000 to 1 × 106 km2 depending on the season and hemisphere. These biases are due to differences in the algorithm sensitivity to ice edge conditions and the spatial resolution of different sensors. Relative uncertainty is assessed by examining extents from the National Snow and Ice Data Center Sea Ice Index product. The largest source of uncertainty,∼100 000 km2 , is between near-real-time and final products due to different input source data and different processing and quality control. For consistent processing, the uncertainty is assessed using different input source data and by varying concentration algorithm parameters. This yields a relative uncertainty of 30000–70 000 km2. . The Arctic minimum extent uncertainty is ∼40 000 km2. Uncertainties in comparing with earlier parts of the record may be higher due to sensor transitions. For the first time, this study provides a quantitative estimate of sea ice extent uncertainty

A good analyst is good at finding data, including that not directly related to the topic under discussion. E.g. this is how the paper ends... with a warning that the record of sea-ice extent and area is under immediate threat. Never gets reported anywhere.

Quote
The passive microwave sea ice record is one of the longest satellite-derived climate records and one of the most iconic indicators of climate change. However, this long-term record is threatened. The existing passive microwave sensors used by the community for sea ice extent are aging. As of this paper (December 2018), the newest sensor, AMSR2, is over six years old, already past its nominal 5-year mission. The current DMSP SSMIS sensors have been operating at least eight years, and the oldest (on F16) was launched more than 14 years ago. The US Department of Defense, JAXA, and the European Space Agency have plans to launch new passive microwave sensors, but these are in their incipient stages and the earliest launch is likely to be at least five years in the future. China has a passive microwave sensor on its FY-3C satellite and future launches are planned. However, there is still a growing potential for a gap in the passive microwave record. If such a gap occurs, intercalibration between sensors would not be possible and the quality of the long-term sea ice extent climate indicator would be degraded. This would be a significant loss to the climate monitoring community.

45
After years of careful book-keeping, I have reached my conclusion

Doomed!

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 15, 2019, 03:28:26 PM »
Another hostage to fortune..

JAXA Daily minimum 3.75 to 4.25 million km2 - High Confidence
NSIDC September average 4.00 to 4.50 million km2 - High Confidence

I am going for a relatively small difference between the daily and monthly figures. This is because
- it looks like the slope to minimum is usually shallower than the increase afterwards,
- and I read somewhere (I think) that a study said their model trended to later minimum dates in the future.
This would tend to bring a September average closer to the daily minimum (I think).

What if the weather was so weird it pushed the minimum date to the 1st October?
Earliest minimum 7 Sept 2016,
Latest minimum 21 Sep 2018.
Average 13 Sep. 

47
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: June 15, 2019, 01:26:33 PM »
Forgot to post the NOAA monthly summary at..
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

El Nino persisting but not a big one.

Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 June 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
 
Synopsis:  El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance).

During May, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly ENSO indices indicate the largest positive SST anomalies were within the central Pacific (+1.1°C in Niño-4 and +0.9°C in Niño-3.4) with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were nearly average at the start of May, but positive anomalies increased toward the end of the month in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave [Fig. 3]. Thus, anomalies remained positive at depth in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies evident in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weak, enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and east-central Pacific. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with El Niño.

The combined averages in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20, but individual models span ENSO-neutral to El Niño outcomes (generally +0.0°C to +1.0°C; [Fig. 6]). The forecast consensus reflects this uncertainty, with slightly lower chances for El Niño compared to the previous month. Ongoing subseasonal variability within the tropical Pacific contributes to an overall murky picture, but the current downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave should fuel the persistence of El Niño at least in the short-term. In summary, El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 July 2019.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 12:59:56 PM »
The various sensors and the various algorithms that interpret the sensors' signals are unchanged for a good few years, i.e. have a consistent and unchanging response to stimuli. So if the results that come out are odd, very odd, with unprecedented variation between them there must be a cause i.e. something unusual is happening in at least part of the Arctic seas..

So rather than comment on the limitations of the sensors, a better conversation might be about what are these changes in the Arctic that are causing these weird results in the data? Haphazard may well be right - the nature of the ice in large parts of the Arctic has perhaps changed. I remember A-team's post on the weirdo clockwise rotation of the Arctic ice that's been ongoing for months and his suggestion that it might presage the beginning of the end for the icepack.

If the extent and area sensors + algorithms are getting confused, what are the prospects for the errors in thickness measurements of thin fractured, broken up and dispersed ice from which the volume is estimated? Perhaps the extent of such difficulties might show especially in large variations in the PIOMAS daily volume change data - unless it is already smoothed for easier consumption.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 15, 2019, 12:26:24 PM »
I  do know for certain that treaties designed to hurt the US economy while allowing the rest of the world , especially our economic competitors to continue polluting , certainly isn’t the answer.

This sentence has nothing to do with reality what so ever and makes me very angry.

Per capita, the US is one of the top polluters in the world. Period! You get your shit fixed before telling others how unfair they allegedly are.

And you casually sprinkling in this supremacy BS makes me really doubt your username.
makes me really doubt your username No longer any doubts for me.

LeftyLarry is quoting straight out of the Trumponomics / Heartland Institute / American Enterprise Institute et al playbook.

End

50
Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: June 14, 2019, 07:39:50 PM »
A couple of maps naming the islands of the Canadian Archipelago

And or those who like things on paper, a new map about Greenland and a lot more.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48611983

Quote
The seasonal sea-ice is in long-term decline and the ice sheet that sits atop Greenland is losing mass at a rate of about 280 billion tonnes a year.

So, if you choose to make a map of the region, you start from the recognition that what you're producing can only be a snapshot that will need to be updated in the relatively near future.

Laura Gerrish, a geographical information systems and mapping specialist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), knows this. Polar science and polar cartography are all about tracing change.

Laura has just finished making a exquisite new printed sheet map (1:4,000,000) of Greenland.

The detail is a delight - from the winding path of all the fjords and inlets, to the precise positioning of current ice margins, and the use of all those tongue-twisting Greenlandic names.
The Greenland and the European Arctic map is available for sale as either a flat wall map or a folded map at several outlets, including the Scott Polar Research Institute and Stanfords map store in London.

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