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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 16 November 2019

As Darvince posted, quite a dump of snow Nov 14 & 15 - highest this season so far.

Accumulated Data 1 Sept to 16 November

Melt From now of zero consequence until next April

but

PRECIPITATION up & down like a yo-yo and back to overall average due to days of high snowfall mostly in the South East.

But the latest snow dump means

SMB above average - with the usual much less than average on the west and much above average in the East (especially SE), and a blob of above average SMB in the NW.
________________________________________________________________________
Quotes from DMI
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point.
_________________________________________
[/quote]
[/quote]

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: Today at 12:17:23 PM »
A new record low 365 day average extent in 2019 looking very unlikely
First 3 months in 2020 seems a more likely time-frame.

JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent data as at 16 November 2019


On the 16th November 2018 extent is 443 k greater than 2019.

There is 95 k to go to a new record 365 day low, (9,683,735 km2), with the daily reduction in the 365 day average on 16 November at  just over 1,200 km2. So the date of a new record low is currently February 2020.

But if you look at the plume of 2018 daily gains (attached) for the rest of November, you will see that 2018 gains were above average. In December, 2018 gains were below average.

There are only 45 days to 31st December. What will 2019 extent gains be?

I still plump for an early 2020 record low - (Jan to March)

Data table & graphs attached
_________________________________________

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 16, 2019, 04:02:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,755,585 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,755,585    km2      
-340,624    km2   <   2010's average.
-467,694    km2   <   2018
-978,130    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain
Central Seas__    26    k   gain
Other Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    32    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Daily gain 53 k, 49 k LESS than the 2010's average of 102 k.

Area gain well below average, the 4th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 341 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 468 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 21 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 781 km2

2019 area has moved up to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.
The Chukchi big bite looks very vulnerable to a sudden freeze once the wind stops.
________________________________________________________________________

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: November 16, 2019, 01:49:41 PM »
Imagine...

So you've volunteered and lobbied like mad to be on the project - what an opportunity for a young scientist!

You've got a bit of Arctic experience - in the summer's 24 hour daylight.

But today,
- 2 months of darkness is getting to you,
- it's about -7 celsius outside, + windchill from 50 kmh wind,
- the ship is creaking and groaning,
- the ice is creaking, groaning, grinding, crack! a new lead.

The boss needs you to go on the floe to rescue some gear before it heads 4,000 metres down.
The polar guards have said the bears are a bit active today - lots of holes in the ice means a better chance of getting a seal.

Life is wonderful.

Stuff that for a game of soldiers.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 16, 2019, 12:37:38 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,003,212 km2(November 15, 2019)

A 2nd day of below average sea ice extent gain - on this day extremely low gain.

- Extent gain on this day 47 k, 47 k less than the average gain of 94 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,039 k, 155 k (3.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,884 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (546 k lower) and 2012 ( 94 k lower),
- Extent is 389 k less than 2018
- Extent is 268 k (2.9%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 49.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 117 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.96 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.13 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 15, 2019, 10:31:45 PM »
Other theory:

Germany's car industry is a dying industry. We all know that, and even most industry leaders know it by now.

That's Daimler, VW, BWM, etc.

Not Bosch, ZF, and all the other specialized component supplier though. They will play a big role even in a BEV world. Those are just in the near vicinity. Having a consolidation centre in Germany is a smart move if you plan or maintain multiple factories all over the world. From a logistics standpoint, it's a no-brainer. Why not use even more synergy effects by also using those parts for production nationally.

Other arguments for this area are there is quite a great infrastructure in general (not internet though, sigh)  and other big industries there.

People are well educated.

The area in question was designated to become a car factory long before. BMW wanted to build one, but they eventually chose another location.

The government of Brandenburg is famous for offering industries great perks for locating there (with some great and some disastrous outcomes).
There you are. Nothing like a bit of local knowledge to clear away the clutter.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 15, 2019, 08:14:51 PM »

Your social values are not entirely the same as mine, or those of sigmetnow, or of sidd, or of vox_mundi, or of Archimid, or of nanning, or of Trump, or of Putin, or of Bolsonaro, or of Xi Jing ......

So who decides what are the "correct" social values? And then AI algorithms are known to build into themselves unconscious bias.

Equally who decides what is objectionable?

Whilst we all have slightly differing social values, our core tenets on what is acceptable and what is not correlate to about 95%.  It really is on the fringes that we differ.

Crime, violence, abuse, we are all pretty much aligned.  When it gets to the finer details the borders are blurred.
The London Metropolitan Police & Extinction Rebellion have very different views on values, as did Gandhi & the British Colonial Administration.

Morrison, PM of Australia is considering introducing laws that severely restrict the right of protest.

The Communist party of the PRoC has somewhat different social values tha an awful lot of Hong Kong residents.

These differences are not marginal, not on the fringe. There have been incidences when even MI6 has been accused, e.g. of flagging protesters against fracking as security risks.

It is a can of worms, a bottle with an evil genies inside. And nowt we say will stop those who presume to govern us from using AI in the cause of their "principles", which I am sure differ substantially from mine.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 15, 2019, 03:34:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,703,083  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,703,083    km2      
-290,736    km2   <   2010's average.
-414,615    km2   <   2018
-974,614    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    63    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas__    33    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    24    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 33 k LESS than the 2010's average of 96 k.

Area gain well below average, the 3rd day since what seemed like ages of above average gains.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 291 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 415 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 89 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 826 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? If the very high NSIDC daily extent gain on the last 2 days is maintained.......no?
________________________________________________________________________

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 15, 2019, 02:56:47 PM »
Weather models also believe that 2019 was as bad for Greenland as 2012.

Thanks ArcticMelt2. I had completely forgotten that the NSIDC annual analysis was due.

I attach their snowfall maps. Where would we be without our pretty pictures ?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 15, 2019, 01:39:37 PM »
After looking at graphs of individual seas and making comments on them, this is the quote that seems valid, and  even more so, for many of the individual seas.

Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons
Julienne Stroeve and  Dirk Notz

Quote
5. Accelerated sea ice loss during all months of the year is additionally driven by a lengthening of the melt season. As assessed for the Arctic as a whole through April 2018, melt onset is occurring 3 days earlier per decade, and freeze-up is happening 7 days later per decade (figure 3). Over the 40 year long satellite record, this amounts to a 12 day earlier melt onset and a 28 day later freeze-up.
[/size]

The summer melt turns from a V shape  into a U shape

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 15, 2019, 01:03:28 PM »
There is a neat game you can play with neural networks. The term of art is "Generative Adversarial Network."

But, in fact, the Holy grail is to teach the AI social values and why we classify something as objectionable and then it will make informed decisions for itself.

But that is an entirely different order of magnitude in AI.
Your social values are not entirely the same as mine, or those of sigmetnow, or of sidd, or of vox_mundi, or of Archimid, or of nanning, or of Trump, or of Putin, or of Bolsonaro, or of Xi Jing ......

So who decides what are the "correct" social values? And then AI algorithms are known to build into themselves unconscious bias.

Here is a link to an article on bias in security systems. I reckon the same could apply to all AI systems.

It's a bit scary

https://www.fastcompany.com/90429474/ai-is-changing-cybersecurity-but-when-its-biased-its-dangerous
AI is changing cybersecurity—but when it’s biased, it’s dangerous
Faulty algorithms, skewed data, and spotty collaboration can put your company’s security measures at risk.
Quote
Biases exist everywhere. But it’s not easy to detect them in the domain of technology, which boils down to ones and zeroes. ...

We’ve seen inappropriate and unintended bias emerge from various industries’ use of AI, including  recruiting and mortgage lending. In those cases, flawed outcomes were evident as bias was reflected in ways that relate to distinct features of our identity: gender, race, age. But I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about areas in which we don’t even realize AI bias is present. In a complex field like cybersecurity, how do we recognize biased outcomes?

AI has become a prime security tool, with research indicating  that 69% of IT executives saying they can’t respond to threats without AI. However, whether used to improve defenses or offload security tasks, it’s essential that we trust that the outcome the AI is giving us is not biased. In security, AI bias is a form of risk—the more information, context, and expertise you feed your AI, the more you’re able to manage security risks and blind spots. Otherwise, various types of bias, from racial and cultural prejudices to contextual, industry-related forms of bias, can impact the AI. In order to be effective, AI models must be diverse. So how do we ensure this breadth, and what can go wrong if we don’t?

Here are the three areas I believe are integral to help prevent AI bias from harming security efforts.

THE PROBLEM-SOLVING ALGORITHM
When AI models are based on false security assumptions or unconscious biases, they do more than threaten a company’s security posture. They can also cause significant business impact. AI that is tuned to qualify benign or malicious network traffic based on non-security factors can miss threats, allowing them to waltz into an organization’s network.  It can also overblock network traffic, barring what might be business-critical communications.

As an example, imagine that an AI developer views one region of the world as safe, because it’s an ally nation, and another as malicious, because it’s an authoritarian regime. The developer therefore allows all the network traffic from the former to enter, while blocking all traffic from the latter. This type of aggregate bias can cause AI to overlook other security contexts that might be more important.

If computer scientists design AI algorithms without influence and input from security experts, the outcomes will be flawed. Because if the AI scientists aren’t working in lockstep with security teams to cull data, threat intelligence, and context, and then codify these insights, they may tune AI tools with some level of bias. As a result, mistrained AI-powered security systems may fail to identify something that should be identified as a fraud element, a vulnerability, or a breach. Biased rules within algorithms inevitably generate biased outcomes.

THE SOURCE DATA
Data itself can create bias when the source materials aren’t diverse. AI that’s fed biased data is going to understand only a partial view of the world and make decisions based on that narrow understanding. In cybersecurity, that means threats will be overlooked. For instance, if a spam classifier wasn’t trained on a representative set of benign emails, such as emails in various languages or with linguistic idiosyncrasies like slang, it will inevitably produce false positives. Even common, intentional misuse of grammar, spelling, or syntax can prompt a spam classifier to block benign text.

THE SECURITY INFLUENCERS
AI models can suffer from tunnel vision, too. As a cyber threat’s behavioral pattern varies based on factors like geography or business size, it’s important to train AI on the various environments that a threat operates in and the various forms it takes on. For instance, in a financial services environment, if you build AI to only detect identity-based issues, it won’t recognize malicious elements outside that setting. Lacking broad coverage, this Al model would be unable to identify threats outside the niche threat pattern it was taught.

IF COMPUTER SCIENTISTS DESIGN AI ALGORITHMS WITHOUT INPUT FROM SECURITY EXPERTS, THE OUTCOMES WILL BE FLAWED.”

But when a security team consists of professionals from various backgrounds, cultures, and geographies, with varying expertise, it can help AI developers feed a 360-degree perspective on many behavioral patterns of security threats into the AI to process. We must train systems against a diversity of problem statements to enable a range of scenarios to be represented in the AI model and, subsequently, help prevent gaps in its threat detection process.
If businesses are going to make AI an integral asset in their security arsenal, it’s essential they understand that AI that is not fair and accurate cannot be effective. One way to help prevent bias within AI is to make it cognitively diverse: The computer scientists developing it, the data feeding it, and the security teams influencing it should have multiple and diverse perspectives. Through cognitive diversity, the blind spot of one expert, one data point, or one approach can be managed by the blind spot of another, getting as close to no blind spots—and no bias—as possible.

So, to answer the questions I get from business leaders, you can only address biased outcomes that aren’t obvious if you know where to look. And in security, you have to look at the elements producing the outcome. That is where you monitor for bias—and that is where you correct it.

Aarti Borkar is a VP at IBM Security, where she is responsible for the vision, strategy, and execution for the business and builds ethical AI and bias-mitigation tools.



12
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: November 15, 2019, 12:44:55 PM »
ENSO Update from the USA Climate Prediction Center

No surprises...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 November 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance).

Near-to-above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean during October [Fig. 1]. In the most recent week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +0.7°C and +0.5°C, respectively, while farther east in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions they were near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average during the month [Fig. 3] as a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that began in September continued progressing eastward into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average during October, while easterly upper-level wind anomalies were observed over the eastern Pacific. Finally, tropical convection was suppressed near the Date Line and also over Indonesia, while somewhat enhanced convection prevailed over the western Pacific, northeast of Papua New Guinea [Fig. 5]. Overall, despite the recent anomalous warming across the east-central equatorial Pacific, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 December 2019.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 14, 2019, 10:26:46 PM »
Dear Gerontocrat, that was just a gentle comparative, I know a few things about SMB for quite some time, did a long MSc report on climate change in partially glaciated catchments  in a specific mountain range in 2010 where SMB was an important factor of course.
Anyway, I always read all your posts with great attention (when I have time to read them, unfortunately not enough), been here for a very long time, but a bit too discrete and very sparsely contributing and wishing I could do more (again lack of time). A massive thank you for all your very informative and interesting posts and to Neven and all the very informative contributors around here.
Then you know a lot more about SMB than I do. I hate cold, I hate snow, and spent most of my working life avoiding it (overseas). Bags of memories instead of bags of cash.

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:23:10 PM »
Save your money. The report is as worthless as used toilet paper.
 IEA is totally  incompetent at projecting future energy use and renewable generation.

The E Tron one of the worlds less efficient electric SUV's has an EPA rating of  283 Wh/km or 74 MPGe
A BMW X3 SUV does 25  MPG EPA.
I doubt you will even be able to buy a new mainstream  ICE car by 2040 in the developed world.
Economics will kill ICE  before governments do.
EV's are projected to become directly cost competitive long before 2030.
The report is as worthless as used toilet paper. You may well be right. But many Governments and businesses make decisions based on it.

I am sure you are right about EV's becoming cost competitive etc
I am sure all the studies and practical examples are quite right when they say energy efficiency is the cheapest and most effective way of reducing energy use.

In your town / village / settlement do you see loads of work being done on houses / shops / offices / factories to improve energy efficiency of living and working spaces? I doubt it.

Does the business section in your newspaper of choice have recent articles on how industries are redesigning their production systems to make the best use of energy? I doubt it.

In the UK most drivers who are considering electric vehicles would prefer a hybrid. Why? Because they do not believe there are charging points. In the boondocks - true. In the big towns & cities. Not true. Most UK drivers can't make the leap from the old (known) to the new (unknown). Gotta have an engine, a real engine.

INERTIA. Governments, businesses, individuals. So my guess is actuality will lie somewhere between the potential to reduce energy use / source most energy from renewables, and the IEA's "stated policies" outlook.

And - the IPCC Climate Emergency report said 12 years to make a substantial reduction in Greenhouse gas emissions. Only 11 now, others say less than 10 years (e.g. the Carbon Clock**). 2019 emissions will be higher than 2018 that were 2.3% higher than 2017.

And - what odds do you give for Venice having a future ?
And - in 2019 China gets 50 times more energy from Coal than from wind+solar.

The need for civil disobedience by extinction rebellion and other activists has never been higher.

** https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/clock/carbon_clock.htm?i=3267263%22%20style=%22width:600px;%20height:340px;

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 14, 2019, 11:31:53 AM »
The IEA seems to be taking Global Heating seriously.

They have just published the World Energy Outlook 2019 that looks as far as 2040.

- summary link https://webstore.iea.org/download/summary/2467?fileName=English-WEO-2019-ES.pdf (I haven't got Euro 120 to buy the full report)

and guardian article
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/14/suvs-will-ensure-oil-demand-grows-for-decades-warns-iea
Growing demand for SUVs 'could negate electric car benefits'

Some points from the above links on a "Stated Policies" scenario (modified BAU?) :-
- Energy efficiency improvement (energy to GDP) in 2018 1.2%, about half the average since 2010
- need > 3% annual energy use efficiency improvement for Paris 2015,
- So annual energy use growth (BAU) set at 1.3% per annum,
- "If the popularity of SUVs continues to rise in line with recent trends, this could add another
2 million barrels per day to our projection for 2040 oil demand."
-  Solar PV becomes the largest component of global installed capacity. By 2040, low-carbon sources provide more than half of total electricity generation. Wind and solar PV are the star performers, but hydropower (15% of total generation in 2040) and nuclear (8%) retain major shares.
- the IEA forecast a global oil demand of 106.4 million barrels a day in 2040, up from 96.9 million last year.
- coal use to shrink slightly.

- Based on current emissions promises by governments, emissions will continue to rise, if more slowly than today, and will not peak before 2040.


Optimists will answer that the IEA are just not getting the scale of change that is underway. They make the point that the above outlook is from stated policies and intentions of Governments as of NOW. i.e. far stronger policies and actions are required to change that outlook.

They also ignore possible impacts from sea level rise, biodiversity and carbon sink degradation and extinction, impacts on world food supply etc etc etc.

16
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:18:25 AM »
It seems that 2019 is getting very close to 2012 record mass loss, 486 GT according to the below GRACE chart

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/
Probably too late, mate. Winter is upon us. SMB gain underway, melting & calving reducing even if not stopping.

GRACE-FO data has been collected again since October 2018. NASA has not put anything new on that link. Instead they have made it all too complicated unless you are a scientist already plugged into the system.

Germany came to the rescue - hence the link I posted above and post again -
http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/greenland

There is the Antarctic and some other data accessible from there as well.

17

Second, per the following article, and associated Rignot et al (2019) reference, if DeConto when back and re-calibrated his model values for the EAIS to match Rignot et al. (2019)'s observed values; he would get significantly higher ice mass loss values at much earlier dates.

Title: "Polar Warning: Even Antarctica’s Coldest Region Is Starting to Melt"

https://e360.yale.edu/features/polar-warning-even-antarctica-coldest-region-is-starting-to-melt

Extract: "In January, Rignot and colleagues published a paper that looked back to 1979. Like the IMBIE study, they found an acceleration in ice loss over the continent as a whole: it went up six times over the four decades of their study. But, more strikingly, they could say that East Antarctica was a big player in that loss: from 2009 to 2017, they concluded, West Antarctica accounted for 63 percent of the continent’s ice loss, and East Antarctica accounted for 20 percent — more than the Antarctic Peninsula’s contribution of 17 percent.

In the face of rapid change and limited data, it is extremely challenging to predict what the Antarctic will do in the future. The models, says Rignot, “all have fundamental flaws. None of them are right.” Their resolution is coarse and they don’t include all the physics; plus they are lacking in critical input data. Very little is known, for example, about water temperatures and the seafloor shape off the coast of much of East Antarctica. That affects things like ocean currents and sea ice buildup, both of which affect glacier flow.

For now, DeConto says, his models show that “the East Antarctic is stable for a few decades, but in the high emissions scenarios it starts to become a player in the late 21st century.” But, he adds, “If I went back and put [Rignot’s] numbers in…” He trails off, waving his hands at the potentially large, unknown increase that would cause."

See also:

Eric Rignot, Jérémie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl, Michiel van den Broeke, Melchior J. van Wessem, and Mathieu Morlighem (January 22, 2019), "Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017", PNAS, 116 (4) 1095-1103; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1095
The Rignot et al paper (and its accompanying spreadsheet separated out melt from the annual mass gain from snowfall of about 1,100GT. They found that in many parts of the EAIS things had changed from annual snowfall in excess of melt, i.e. a net mass gain, to annual snowfall less than melt, .e. a net mass loss.

The GRACE + GRACE-FO data  seems to confirm this, especially in the EIS East of the Ross Ice Shelf (data to September 2019 attached).

18
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 13, 2019, 07:46:29 PM »
Again, the Twitter post was a 384 (!) hour forecast. That's 16 days out.
Stoopid!

Meanwhile, reality.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50401308
Venice floods: Climate change behind highest tide in 50 years, says mayor

Quote
Severe flooding in Venice that has left much of the Italian city under water is a direct result of climate change, the mayor says.

The highest water levels in the region in more than 50 years would leave "a permanent mark", Venice Mayor Luigi Brugnaro tweeted.

"Now the government must listen," he added. "These are the effects of climate change... the costs will be high."

St Mark's Square - one of the lowest parts of the city - was one of the worst hit areas.

St Mark's Basilica was flooded for the sixth time in 1,200 years, according to church records. Pierpaolo Campostrini, a member of St Mark's council, said four of those floods had now occurred within the past 20 years.

Mr Brugnaro said the damage was "huge" and that he would declare a state of disaster, warning that a project to help prevent the Venetian lagoon suffering devastating floods "must be finished soon".

"The situation is dramatic. We ask the government to help us," he said
For those like me w have not been to visit, lots of photos in the article.

PS: attached pic. Should I have saved it in my "oceans" folder ?

19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 13, 2019, 07:18:30 PM »
GRACE-FO has updated - now  with Greenland Mass loss to mid-September

http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/greenland 

Thank-you Potsdam, Germany.

In the 09/2018 to 08/2019 Greenland Year, total SMB gain was a very low 170 GT.
Greenland Mass Loss from Mid-Oct 2018 to Mid-Sept 2019 was just over 500GT.

So mass loss from calving and glacial melt from contact at the ocean edge with salt water  was approaching 700GT, which was high but not extremely so.

But the circa 500GT net mass loss is extremely high compared with the 2002-2019 average of circa 225 GT, due in part to low SMB gain but also due to greater calving / melt from marine-terminating glaciers.

20
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: November 12, 2019, 08:25:43 PM »
Is it expected for such a huge iceberg to move just as fast as the sea ice surrounding it?

Click to play.
I've forgotten what it's freeboard is. 20 metres? Wind speed at 25 metres always higher than at the surface. 180 metres below the water ? Effect of currents ?

Lots of inertia but once on its way vey slow to stop.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 08:11:19 PM »
This is a catastrophe. :(


No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

The Chukchi and the Central Arctic are opposite sides of the coin.  Let's see what the 2019 season brings.

ps: But what will the Bering Sea do - how open for how long - a big influence on the Chukchi's melting season.

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 12, 2019, 06:47:40 PM »
I appreciate your effort but after watching the 1m22 video I have recognized an actor. Sorry. Just my view.
It is Musk who took the initiative in promising and installing S Australia's big battery in 3 months flat. And that big battery has killed the local peak demand price-gouging market run by the gas peaker /coal plants.

It is Musk who is working with the S Australia Government to get solar into social housing largely for poorer people. And the new Liberal Govt (aka would-be Trumpistas) - to everybody's surprise- is keeping it going.

Enlightened self-interest it may be - but at least something is happening. For that Musk can be forgiven some of his hubris , though I still hope the Brit who is suing him over the pedo libel gives Musk's ego a good kicking in court.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 12:45:41 PM »
A Tale of 2 seas (NSIDC Sea Ice Area)

DMI North of 80 has been colder or much colder than in recent years. North of 80 is pretty much the area covered by the Central Arctic Sea - currently 31st lowest, i.e. 11th highest, in the satellite record, and nearly 200,000 km2 more than the 2010's average.

However, other parts of the Arctic have been relatively warm - e.g. the Chukchi.

The Chukchi Sea - currently lowest ( and for 151 days this year), and nearly 300,000 km2 less than the 2010s average.

The Arctic is certainly a mix of different seas.

24
Stupid question - does global warming cause the polar vortexes to break down, or is this in fact untrue?

If it is true that the vortex is breaking down, what do you make of this ...
What are you up to, posting a link from those arseholes ?

And as for the source of the article, read on......

Chris Martz
Description
SHORT BIO | Future meteorologist. Lead forecaster at FirstWatch Weather. Believer in natural climate change. Christian, cross country runner, love snowstorms.

BIO | Christopher, or most famously known as The ClimateGuy ©, is a weather and climate hobbyist. I am a sophomore high school student from Northern VA and I am aspiring to get a Ph.D. in atmospheric science and become a meteorologist/climatologist. I am very skeptical about man-made global warming. I personally think that changes in climate are natural. I am also a cross country runner, swimmer, and Washington Nationals fan.

I believe in God and I do go to church almost every Sunday. I believe that someone had to create the universe for many reasons. One is because the universe is almost perfectly set up. I don’t have a problem with my religious faith and science overlapping. I don’t think God would have given humans a brain if he didn’t want us to think.


25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: November 12, 2019, 07:15:45 AM »
A new record low 365 day average extent in 2019 looking much less likely
First 3 months in 2020 seems a more likely time-frame.

JAXA Extent data as at 11 November 2019


On the 2nd November 2018 extent is a (slightly reduced) 393 k greater than 2019.

There is 100 k to go to a new record 365 day low, (9,683,735 km2), with the daily reduction in the 365 day average on 2 November at  just under 1,100 k. So the date of a new record low is currently early February.

But if you look at the plume of 2018 daily gains (attached) for the rest of November, you will see that 2018 gains were above average. In December, 2018 gains were below average.

There are only 50 days to 31st December. What will 2019 extent gains be?

I still plump for an early 2020 record low - (Jan to March)

Data table & graphs attached
_________________________________________

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 12, 2019, 06:55:11 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 10 November 2019 :  24,110,255 km2

- Extent losses from maximum 0.49 million km2, 0.18 million km2 (57%) more than the average  of 0.31 million km2.
_____________________________________________________________

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 12, 2019, 06:10:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,667,580 km2(November 11, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 75 k, 2 k more than the average gain of 73 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,4703 k, 90 k (2.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,613 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (379 k lower) and 2012 (1329 k lower),
- Extent is 393k less than 2018
- Extent is 337 k (3.8%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 46.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 121 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.90 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.02 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain at average for a 2nd day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Insomnia means you get an early helping of data. I am hoping that this is a one-off.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 11, 2019, 10:29:24 PM »
I always end up with the observation that nature (mostly) abhors a straight line.

For a long time the linear relationship may look the best, but it mostoften breaks down eventually. So will it be KK's long-tailed gompertz slow  / minimal decline or will it fall apart with a crash

So I just can't go along with Stroeve et al when linear is pushed out to the end. It just ain't like that.

ps: And 2007 and 2012 pushed the max dip in an annual variation well over 1 million km2 when melting conditions are almost perfect.
pps: Volume divided by extent is not a good measure of thickness at minimum, especially using NSIDC data. This is because the ice is very spread out with lots of open water at minimum, concentration getting as low as 55%. Volume divided by Area is a much better measure at minimum.
 






29
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 11, 2019, 07:12:54 PM »
Stroeve & Notz papers

To state that the linear relationship between sea ice loss and Arctic Global-mean(?) temperatures will hold until there is no more ice is heroic indeed.

How do they deal with September sea ice loss 1979 to 2019 of around 50% and volume loss of around 75% ? If both continue at the same linear rate then an arithmetical impossibility looms.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 11, 2019, 06:55:49 PM »
A Tales of 2 seas (NSIDC Sea Ice Area)

The Central Arctic Sea - currently 31st lowest, i.e. 11th highest, in the satellite record, and nearly 200,000 km2 more than the 2010's average.

The Chukchi Sea - currently lowest ( and for 151 days this year), and nearly 300,000 km2 less than the 2010s average.

The Arctic is certainly a mix of different seas.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 11, 2019, 09:41:06 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,592,985 km2(November 10, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 83 k, 3 k more than the average gain of 80 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,629 k, 89 k (2.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,540 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (458 k lower) and 2012 (132 k lower),
- Extent is 375k less than 2018
- Extent is 333 k (3.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 46.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 122 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.89 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.01 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain at average on this day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +2.1  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but not as cold.
 __________________________________________________

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 10, 2019, 01:10:41 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 9 November 2019 :   24,338,686
 km2


The maximum was 24.60 million km2 on the 2nd November


Since that date
- Extent losses 0.26 million km2, 0.03 million km2 more than the average.
_____________________________________________________________

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 10, 2019, 10:06:05 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,510,312 km2(November 9, 2019)

After over 2 weeks of very high sea ice extent gains, a below average gain on this day

- Extent gain on this day 49 k, 12 k less than the average gain of 61 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,546 k, 86 k (1.9%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,460 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (481 k lower) and 2012 (109 k lower),
- Extent is 384k less than 2018
- Extent is 337 k (3.8%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 45.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 123 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.89 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.01 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain below average on this day - a sign of things to come or just taking a breath?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.5  to +3.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but not as cold.
 __________________________________________________

34
New Zealand passes law aimed at combating climate change.

Ok boomer .  :D


I'm a boomer - 1947 vintage.

At least the young are pushing at a door that is not totally locked shut.

I can tell you 20-30 years ago one could (and did) make oneself extremely unpopular with the powers-that-be by daring to question the addiction to fossil fuels and other environmental stuff - e.g. forests. The bad guys play for keeps to keep clear-cutting.

That included occasional physical danger - including in a S pacific country not that far from N.Z.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 09, 2019, 09:12:45 PM »
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/multi.html
Interesting animation of ASI Thickness out to 2050 by Dr. Zhang at Polar Science Center. 
I looked at the Winter Sea Ice Animation.

The Bering sea ice in March 2018 & March 2019 was less than that shown in the last frame of the movie.

Huh! he said.

36
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: November 09, 2019, 05:05:00 PM »
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Matmo) Warning #17
Issued at 09/1500Z

Not a very strong cyclone, as regards wind, but hitting such a vulnerable area already degrading very fast.. Most homes there are made from dried mud bricks.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/07/sundarbans-mangrove-forest-in-bangladesh-india-threatened-by-rising-waters-illegal-logging/
This vanishing forest protects the coasts—and lives—of two countries
Rising waters and illicit logging are killing the trees in the Sundarbans, the natural wall that protects the India-Bangladesh coast.

Quote
Lost Protection
The Sundarbans spans nearly 4,000 square miles of India and Bangladesh along the Bay of Bengal. The world’s largest continuous mangrove forest, it’s home to a wide variety of species. For the 7.5 million people who live in the region, the forest is a natural barrier against tides and cyclones. But as people cut the trees and rising seas bring saline waters, the forest and the land itself are shrinking. More than a million coastal residents have already migrated north.

https://news.mongabay.com/2019/10/sundarbans-climate-change-tigers-india/
Quote
The sea level has risen by an average of 3 centimeters a year over the past two decades in the Sundarbans, the vast mangrove delta at the mouth of the Bay of Bengal, leading to one of the fastest rates of coastal erosion in the world.

Residents of the dozens of islands in the Indian part of the Sundarbans have seen their homes swallowed up by the sea and their farmland poisoned by saltwater, forcing many to relocate.

The fast-encroaching sea, driven by climate change, has also eaten away at the hunting grounds of the Sundarbans’ famous Bengal tigers, pushing them to target the villagers’ livestock — and, increasingly, the villagers themselves.

At the same time, villagers unable to farm and experiencing dwindling fish catches are venturing deeper into tiger territory to look for crabs and collect honey, putting them at even greater risk of being attacked by the big cats.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2019, 04:12:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,312,975 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,312,975    km2      
-249,290    km2   <   2010's average.
-246,321    km2   <   2018
-987,122    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    110    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    28    k   gain
Central Seas__    81    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    28    k   gain
CAA_________    16    k   gain
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    19    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 110 k, 34 k MORE than the 2010's average of 76 k.

Area gain very high yet again, although considerably less'
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 249 k.
2019 Area is less than 2018 by 246 k.
2019 Area more than 2012 by 138 k

2016 is LESS than 2019 by 997 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.2  to +2.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold.
 
Will daily gains ever return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________

38
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 09, 2019, 02:50:18 PM »
The wrong dam in the wrong place + bad engineering + corruption. What possibly could (not) go wrong?

And the real reason for this monstrosity ? - a mega Gold Mine, making sure even more forest is destroyed and the rivers polluted.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/08/death-of-a-river-the-ruinous-design-flaw-in-a-vast-amazon-rainforest-dam
Poorly planned Amazon dam project 'poses serious threat to life'
Operator faces choice of weakening 14km barrier or potentially devastating a biodiversity hotspot

by Jonathan Watts in Belo Monte

Quote
The biggest hydroelectric project in the Amazon rainforest has a design flaw that poses a “very serious” threat to human life and globally important ecosystems, according to documents and expert testimony received by the Guardian.

The studies suggest engineers failed to anticipate the impact of water shortages on the Pimental dam at Belo Monte, which has been closed and turned into a barrier. This is forcing the operators to choose between a structural weakening of the 14km-wide compacted-earth barrier and a reallocation of water in the reservoir or on the Xingu river, which is home to indigenous communities, fishing villages and some of the world’s most endangered species.

His concerns were echoed by Francisco del Moral Hernandez, an energy science specialist who coordinated an expert panel on Belo Monte in 2009. “We’ve always known this project is inefficient from the standpoint of power generation. What we did not imagine is the weakness of the civil engineering,” he said. “If I were living downstream of the dam, I would move upriver … It is absurd this was not foreseen.”

Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is reportedly planning to attend the completion ceremony for Belo Monte, has weakened protections for the environment and indigenous communities. Local politicians will urge him to push ahead with another mega-project in the volta grande, a giant new goldmine called Belo Sun, which would be powered by the dam.

and more....and more...and more....on how to wreck the rainforest, biodiversity and the livelihood of the local population.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2019, 10:16:49 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,461,408 km2(November 8, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 98 k, 39 k more than the average gain of 59 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,497 k, 99 k (2.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,398 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (532 k lower) and 2012 (104 k lower),
- Extent is 332k less than 2018
- Extent is 329 k (3.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 44.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 124 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.89 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.02 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Extent gains show further signs of moderating, though still very much above average

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.2  to +2.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold.
 
Or will daily gains ever return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 08, 2019, 06:03:42 PM »
Quote from: gerontocrat
... Computers can process vast amounts of data very quickly - but that is not intelligence as it is an auto-response to instructions given to it. Even when it "learns" to produce new analyses it is following instructions to do so.

That part of your statement may be true for a classical computer system. 

But, an AI system does not use an auto-response (... which would always give the same answer to a given input.) It reacts probabilisticly, meaning for a given input there are a distribution of possible answers.

And as far as 'learning' is concerned; there are no specific (if-then-else, case) instructions for an AI. It uses a sieve of 1-1.5 million algorithms to refine an input into an output. Much of what goes on in-between is a black box even for the computer scientists that are training it. And many of the algorithms are generated by the AI.
It uses a sieve of 1-1.5 million algorithms - it needs all that massive weight of crap because it can't do what the human brain does. The day it does, goodbye humanity.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 08, 2019, 05:13:14 PM »
One thing is for sure - the human brain works completely differently from a  computer, because physically the brain just cannot do what a computer does.

"- the neuron fires a large electrical spike — an action potential. This jolt whizzes at speeds of up to 150 metres per second "
-Speed of electricity through a computer approaches the speed of light - 300,000 kms per second.
- 3 GHZ cpu can process 3,000 million cycles per second.

Computers can process vast amounts of data very quickly - but that is not intelligence as it is an auto-response to instructions given to it. Even when it "learns" to produce new analyses it is following instructions to do so.

So we do it different - and better. I always thought that that was the key to AI - a computer that could process stuff the way we do instead of people writing longer & longer code.

After all, a computer is not as clever as the Nile Crocodile with 80.5 million neurons in the brain+the whole nervous system.
____________________________________________________
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06694-6
Quote
"High-speed process
The average human brain contains about 120 billion neurons, which constantly receive and send information through branch-like appendages called dendrites. Chemical or electrical signals that reach the dendrites produce small voltage changes across the cell’s membrane, which are routed to the cell body. When the sum of the voltage changes reaches a point of no return, called a threshold, the neuron fires a large electrical spike — an action potential. This jolt whizzes at speeds of up to 150 metres per second along a neuronal branch, known as an axon, to another set of branching appendages. Here, chemical or electrical signals pass the information on to the next set of dendrites.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 08, 2019, 04:32:35 PM »
Because 2018 extent gains have also been high, the 365 day trailing average continues its downward slide towards in new record low sometime in Spring 2020. But this could change very quickly

43
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 08, 2019, 01:50:47 PM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.
Well, the heat capacity of water is larger than the heat capacity of ground, so WACC is the result, to make it most basicest.

I would not put too much (or any) faith in someone's twitter post.  If that were to occur, just think of the ramifications.
Yesterday, GFS said Arctic Temperature anomaly would rise  to +5.9 celsius by day 10.
Today - to only about +2.5.

GFS certainly has form in forecasting sudden bursts of warmth in the last days of their 10 day forecasts. Do other models do the same?

44
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: November 08, 2019, 12:02:13 AM »
The North Indian season usually have a peak in November. Bulbul became the sixth Severe Cyclonic Storm.
The coast from Odisha to Bengal is just a series of deltas - extremely low-lying for a good many miles inland and so extremely vulnerable, and already suffering from severe coastal erosion. For those in the USA think - Louisiana Boot (what's left of it).

There is going to be some damage.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 07, 2019, 03:19:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,059,301 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,059,301    km2      
-329,919    km2   <   2010's average.
-202,356    km2   <   2018
-1,096,428    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    192    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    177    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    30    k   gain
CAA_________    23    k   gain
East Siberian__    37    k   gain
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
         
Kara_________    34    k   gain
Laptev_______    37    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 192 k, 81k MORE than the 2010's average of 111 k.

Extremely high yet again, and  three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 107k of that total, which is much less than in recent days as they get closer to maximum.
Looks like the Beaufort might be entering rapid freeze (92 gain in the last three days)


NSIDC area gain may be starting to decline - slowly.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 329 k.
2018 is more than 2019 by 202 k.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 1,074 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
A change:- GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.1  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, and (take with a bag of salt**) a flood of warmth to +5.9 by day 10. In the first 5 days basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold.
 
Will these 14 days of very high gains continue?
Or will daily gains return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________
** GFS has form on predicting sudden warming events after day 5 that somehow usually fail to materialise. But in late Feb 2018 it did happen.

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 06, 2019, 11:54:00 PM »
[quote author=TerryM link=topic=256.
Cutting back on electrical use is the only way to mitigate the problem that I can see, but will more efficient appliances, thicker blankets of insulation and low wattage lighting have any effect if EVs flood the market?

Terry
[/quote]
Hullo Terry.

Next year and the year after we will see if all the blah blah about vast increases in Solar PV & wind & batteries turns into reality.

But you are quite right. Investments in energy efficiency will probably more often than not have a greater impact on a home, office and factory energy use (and the cost thereof) than simply banging in more renewables.

Utilities don't want to hear it. The less traffic on their lines the less revenue while the fixed costs (especially depreciation/amortisation) stay the same. The bottom line gets hit.

And it ain't sexy, so just does not get up the list of priorities for Governments to make it happen.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 06, 2019, 11:03:18 PM »
I think that California allows self consumption of PV power without requiring any declaration. So reduced consumption could also mean transfer to self produced electricity.
Consumption reduction is normal these days because of efficiency gains in lightning.

lightning? Is California full of hideous sapient creatures brought to life by judicious application of electricity from lightning? (California should be glad that Trump's new home is on the other side of the continent.
(For more data google Peter Cushing Hammer Horror movies about Dr Frankenstein )
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Frankenstein; or, The Modern Prometheus is a novel written by English author Mary Shelley (1797–1851) that tells the story of Victor Frankenstein, a young scientist who creates a hideous sapient creature in an unorthodox scientific experiment. Shelley started writing the story when she was 18, and the first edition was published anonymously in London on 1 January 1818, when she was 20.[2] Her name first appeared on the second edition, published in 1823.
Wikipedia

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 06, 2019, 10:18:25 PM »

For the real picture of California renewables, why not look at how California generates its electricity or how much renewable capacity is being installed? 
So I have - data from https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac.

No simple data for 2019 tabulated found by me. Nor could I find total energy - to include transportation and direct use of natural gas & coal.

Perhaps of most significance is California has divorced growth in electricity use from growth in GDP. So growth in renewables has not been perpetually chasing growth in demand.

And some data       2001    2018             Percentages of total electricity generation
Wind+ Solar            1.2%    13.6%
Coal                      10.3%      3.3%
Natural gas            43.4%    31.8%

So to get the 33% renewables often quoted they have to chuck in all sorts of other stuff.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 06, 2019, 08:24:39 PM »
Not much sign of a slowdown in Arctic Sea Ice Loss in October. See Blumenkraft's post above.

The open water season is lengthening. Two seas with very little connection to the Arctic Ocean are the Hudson and the Baffin. They are irrelevant to discussions about trends in the September minimum as they melt out almost entirely every year. But they do illustrate well how melt is happening earlier and freezing is happening later, which must have an effect on the climate around the Arctic Ocean.

Graphs attached.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 06, 2019, 03:25:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,866,901 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 6,866,901    km2      
-410,845    km2   <   2010's average.
-194,731    km2   <   2018
-1,215,036    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    211    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain
Central Seas__    198    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    31    k   gain
CAA_________    21    k   gain
East Siberian__    50    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    38    k   gain
Laptev_______    43    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 211 k, 89k MORE than the 2010's average of 122 k.

Extremely high yet again, and just three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 131k of that total, which is somewhat less as they get closer to maximum.
Looks like the Beaufort might be entering rapid freeze (31k 30k gain today)


NSIDC area gain may be starting to decline.
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Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 411 k.

2018 is more than 2019 by 195 k.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 1,053 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
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Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range  +1.3  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
Will these 13 days of very high gains continue?
Or will daily gains return to the average or even below?
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