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Messages - sark

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1
I think you are correct but I don't think it's exactly accurate to say the polar cell is failing -- the *single* polar cell system is now changing into a state where we have two smaller continental polar cells centered over North America and Eurasia, with increasing dominance of the NAmerican cell (IMO).

So, yes, the single-polar-cell system is failing, but we still have polar cells, they are just centered in abnormal locations and are now advecting heat into the High Arctic instead of dissipating heat entering the High Arctic (at least, advection is now occurring more often than dissipation).

Pretty much how I see it.  Except there's sort of a third polar cell going on, often over Sea of Okhotsk.

I love this video of a winter PV split



2
Dr Judah Cohen has updated the AER blog June 7:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Continued northern blocking predicted by GFS ensemble rolling forward

*edit how do I make a chart like this?

3
I'm scared.  We're seeing an inability to adapt to minor stuff.  This thing has been coming on & growing for over 18 months.  We saw it in November 2016, and in November 2018 it accelerated even more.  Nobody's talking about it, why?  Are we afraid of being laughed at or ran out of town? 

You're not stupid.  You're just supporting the orderly process of discussion and discovery that worked great when we weren't in a catstrophe.

It's not scientists responsibility to fight for our lives, it's people like me who can see it... who don't have a responsibility to science, but have a responsibility to our family & communities... it's we who need to stand up and start understanding and talking about this.

4
These forecasts are more than ten days out - might mention that in the text.

i am not a scientist <-- it says it right here.  of course they are.  the topic of the thread ends with "long range weather forecasting".  You know, just like summer outlooks, CFS, CanSIPS, RCPs, and millions of conversations about next year, none of which are splashed with warnings about uncertainty in the 10 day forecast

I'm not responsible if you show up with an umbrella when it's sunny out.  But that granular focus to which 5, 8, 10 day uncertainty applies is not relevant to the topic.  I'd rather see a model fail and stipple out on something it can't grapple with so I can think about that and observe how whatever patterns it was projecting actually play out in real life

this isn't an observational science to me.  this is runaway climate change.  whatever climate & weather communications thus far have resulted in the US being record breaking short corn going into a planting season with no prospect of better conditions coming

Quote
In 1930 and early 1931, the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles were known as the most prosperous regions in the nation. For plains farmers, the decade opened with prosperity and growth. But in the summer of 1931, those farmers would face the most difficult eight years of their lives.... The rain simply stopped.

https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1583.html

Maybe you don't realize it yet.  I'm safe saying the US corn yield will be down 20-30% in 2019

and that's just the tip of the iceberg

All I'm doing is seeing the truth and telling it like it is.  I'm clearly not playing scientist.  I'm trying to figure things out, do I buy my family food or air filters?  do I move?  Because I want to do that before the rush.

While we still have time I'm going to use my intelligence to figure out exactly how this thing is swinging, with or without this forum.  Please help examine the models & present conditions & reanalysis so the developing catastrophic situation can be understood

that's the last I'll say about it.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 01:02:16 PM »
[Isn’t there a meta-topic somewhere?]

To get back to topic, right now the big question is how long will HP stay on top of the CAB. We are still one month from the solstice but insolation curve is extremely steep near the pole. There will be a lot more solar energy every day.

I don't see a change in pattern until June 15 with a couple fragments of low returning to the Arctic via Greenland.  The Kara is going to get blowtorched June 2-9.  At the same time, ridging from the Pacific will reach into the Beaufort but a little closer to CAA and not as emphatic.  I think this next incursion will NOT be as strong or deliver such a pinched off anticyclone of the jet stream, like the current incursion has.

I still think we will enter summer in wave 5. 

6
I made my guesses at beyond June 10th below

7
1st image is ESRL 1000mb air temperature anomalies month by month, 2012-2018 compared to 1979-2000.  This shows that the temperatures have dropped significantly around Hudson Bay, especially in March April May.  The big signal here is that in recent years, the Polar Cell has elongated toward Hudson Bay and Siberia.  Meanwhile, ridging from both oceans has taken turns reaching into the Arctic and delivering those bursts of high temperature we all get excited about, the DMI 80N movers.  However, those Arctic incursions have always came singly, and not from both sides of the planet at the same time.

Dr Judah Cohen has published AER's summer temperature forecast.  https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

2nd image attached is AER's GEFS Polar Cap Height including forecast.  The current conditions are updated here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

3rd image is now a 7 day composite of the 500 mb anomaly from ESRL, and the 18Z GEFS 5 day averages tacked onto the end, which is what I stare at to guess where in the Arctic will get hit by these recurring short circuit ridges.  Looks like once this Bering Blast wears out, another long reaching ridge coming across the Kara Sea brings another big block of high pressure right to the pole.

Gav's weather vids on YouTube has been doing analogs and seasonal models of interest in the UK.  The analogs have been extremely interesting.  https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Michael Ventrice on Twitter: "With a strong suppressed phase of a Kelvin wave to pass the Western Hemisphere during early June, I'm thinking severe thunderstorm activity in the U.S. quiets down. Good news for parts of the Plains.  Early June likely meaning June 7-20+"

Michael Ventrice regularly reports on the synoptics and there's a great image here.  Little bit over my head with the MJO.  He's been "bearish" on El Nino lately. 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132225653867204609?s=19

I've been staring at models until I can see it with my eyes shut.  I've been doing this because it seems like something is very wrong.

Firstly, GFS runs hot & is a little bit fast at the end.  When I see a high 500mb anomaly, the resulting action is much more diffuse and less sharp.  The GFS paints a bright dot on an area, reality waters it down.  Same amount of ink, just spread out.

The timing of GFS is a little bit fast in the 10-16 day.  Whatever it was developing speeds up at the smaller resolution and the temperature and speed runs away.  What is depicted turns out to be less energetic.

I like how it is "sensitive" and one run van vary widely from the next, but you get great indications of major moves 16-20 days out in the hour 384.

Yeah and it will suffer a heat wave right over the Beauforts area, above zero temps with high pressure in 15-20 days.  I guarantee it.

Ask me how I know

Someone asked me how I knew the Beaufort would be buried in high pressure & heat May 21-26.  I wanted to say something pithy about the value of long range GFS.  I mean, it's working.  But there's more to it. 

Hurricane Oscar, the last named hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Season was turned out to sea and became and extratropical cyclone.  It entered the Arctic on November 1.  500mb charts from GFS and ECMWF showed it entraining with the polar cell and landing right at the north pole around November 5th.  Within days, the stratospheric polar vortex began ping ponging around the Arctic.  Displacement eventually yielded elongation, splitting, and a notable 3 PV setup.  The PV split worked its way down to the ground for 5 weeks, and then we had the major arctic air outbreaks of last winter.

Since all this happened, the flow has been often split and two major sections of polar cell depart the Arctic for colder land.  The two cells find separation while the jet stream reaches up from both oceans and short circuits at the pole.

4th image.  Big time separation.  There are now two areas of polar cell instead of one.  It is a repeating pattern of meandering, pinching in half, churning in heat at the pole, and then slapping back together again.  It repeats and repeats coming every 6 or 8 weeks.

Now you can expect there will be ridging from opposite sides of the planet at the same time, nearly reaching the pole simultaneously.  The aggressiveness of GFS often shows waves crossing the Arctic and landing on the other side of the planet.  In reality, it's a little bit less simultaneous, a little bit less of a short circuit.

So, what we can all see in the models is a new block of high pressure forming in Russia and then curling into the Arctic, buring the Kara Sea in high pressure and warmth incursion, and delivering another parcel of high pressure to the Arctic.  This is shown in the June 1-9 period.  It is accompanied by a ridge from the Pacific reaching toward the Beaufort.  Models are showing this one a little less energetic and low pressure begins to deepen in the region of Greenland & Baffin Bay around June 10.



8
Opening this new thread in response to long range weather forecasting discussions in the main melt season thread.  From pages 14-15..  Anything goes.

I would propose a 'Long Term Weather Forcast Thread'.

There are obviously people not interested in this kind of content. By having it in a separate thread they could easily avoid it. And the ones interested wouldn't feel restricted and could post freely.

and I'll open with my "Autosquint" 500mb anomaly 21 day comp mean, with one of today's GFS runs tacked on to the end

This could use a synopsis of the SSW style final warming of 2019, with the ensuing coupled barotropic polar atmosphere that has beaten into the high north.  Analogues, models, papers

I feel like it'll calm down once the snow melts, but 2019 is a continuation of a really disappointing trend.  I spent 3 days curled in a ball last week.  I'm not a scientist and I don't play one so I can say this: The polar cell is failing.  It has been for years.  The trend is not your friend, but it's still a trend... and the emerging trend has to be indicative of the drastic, faster-than-expected breakdown of the polar cell.

What the hell is even happening?

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 05, 2019, 04:14:26 AM »
Why bother

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 05:06:21 AM »
Don't panic?  The polar cell is acting funny.  Crops aren't getting planted.  The decline in nature is so fast now you can point it out in pictures.  The kids are in the streets because they stand to be destroyed, and nobody else has a clue. 

This was a structurally cold winter in a lot of ways, I think.  And the polar cell is doing tricks.  At 15C.  Like in 2016, like Now.


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 29, 2019, 09:38:40 AM »
Thanks a lot for doing that Sark. I was just musing, and didn't expect you to do it!

Still does not provide clarity for me either... but some recent years look like they have more pronounced differences using this time frame.

Here's something a little more useful, perhaps.  A fun way to use this tool.  This is the 500mb anomaly running mean.  I took about a 25 day chunk of time across recent months, this is the resulting 500mb anomaly vs ESRL's climo

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 29, 2019, 08:55:06 AM »
How do you connect this to your statement in your previous post that, "Arctic warming has resulted in at least some occurrence of warm arctic, cold continents"?

Is the problem that the information is presented at a scale/time frame that is useless? I wonder if looking at Jan 1 through March 15 would be more revealing?

wdmn, here's that look...

I won't try to guess what it portends

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 27, 2019, 09:54:33 AM »
Thanks for your updates on this Bbr. One question though. Could you provide a little more commentary in plain language, so non-meteorologist can understand you too?

Decameter.  10's of meters.  when you go up until pressure is 500 millibars, you're at about 4700-5500 meters altitude.  So the 500mb anomaly shows you decameters from average. 

Heat makes air expand.  So higher 500mb areas are warmer.  Usually the pole is cold and the air is short so hot equator air tries to flow toward it to fill in the low.  But there's a twist, the Earth spins.  So it's kind of a spiral.

Anyway, the 500mb average for that area is like +36 decameters in height or 360 meters higher than normal.  As you can see, we only are playing with about 800 meters to begin with.

They're all talking about it like it's a ridge in the jet stream but i've never before seen two giant heat domes pop up and then slam together at the north pole, cutting the polar cell in half.  But I'm no scientist.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: April 25, 2019, 01:36:00 PM »
Can we as a group please refrain from posting ANYTHING beyond 7 day forecasts? For some reason the Arctic forecasts at the long range are even worse than the ones down here where people live, and they rarely verify to anywhere close to accurate.
I know folks have been complaining, but many still feel the need to post "HEAT TORCH AT THE CHUKCHI AT DAY 10!!!" So I add my voice here at stupic questions department.
Thnk you

I said the polar cell is failing over a month ago.  Pretty much 5 weeks early.  What's happening now is what I said would happen on 24 Mar 2019...  Pretty good for prophecy work.  toot toot?

Below is a gif of the 7-10 day forecast from GFS compared with the last complete run... essentially the 7-10 day is on the left and reality is on the right.  Not dismissable.

Just start squinting a little after day 5 and close your eyes entirely by day 15

Click to run

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 25, 2019, 04:00:34 AM »
the latest ECMWF run.  https://imgur.com/a/kXSSEUx

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 24, 2019, 03:01:50 PM »
I am not a scientist.  I haven't even been watching very closely for an entire year, but I've been glancing at the situation in the Arctic for 20 years.  Eyes front now.

This doesn't look like a ridge, to me.  This looks like a short circuit.  The Arctic Ocean is warmer than the land.  What's happening now looks, again to an untrained eye, like the polar cell is being torn in two.

Whatever's left of cold air after this will certainly return to the Arctic in mid-May, according to pattern.  I'm hopeful more is left than appears to be in the forecast weather models.  It's uncomfortable to see GFS runs that look like mid-June of 2016 before May of 2019.

Still, the forecast temperature anomalies don't look insane.  This tormented flow pattern has somehow kept cold within 80N all winter.  I thought we'd see an ice free north pole in 2017 and that didn't happen.  Who knows, I'm just an outsider, but this has the feeling of something new & unique & damning.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 22, 2019, 02:43:25 PM »
I think below is a reasonable addition to the discussion.  Euro 500mb anomaly ensemble, hours 120-216.  Days 5-9.  Gif is not too big.  Illustrates something.  I think this is useful as it alerts people who might want to watch more closely in the coming days.

It is possible to post on this forum without making a bunch of prophetic predictions like WxJesus.  Nothing about this makes it necessary to list predictions.  Then again, the whole purpose of observational meteorology is to make predictions.  Let's not make this forum any less useful.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 22, 2019, 06:12:23 AM »
Given the unreliable nature of forecasts beyond 5 days, why use them?

Why produce them?  Because they are useful

21
Policy and solutions / Re: What type of transportation do you use?
« on: April 15, 2019, 03:10:31 AM »
I traveled 15,000 miles around the Western US for 4 years under my own power.  I carried a laptop with solar power, two different configurations.  Lived on as little as $200 a month.  For months at a time, accounted for CO2 emissions in the range of 2-4 tonnes per annum. 

I ride bicycle for everything, but it doesn't make a difference.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 27, 2019, 07:56:08 PM »
How rare is it to see a full 10 day GFS run on the Reanalyzer predicting 2M anomalies in the arctic above 6 deg C (ok, a couple of drops to 5.9) and as high as 7.6? I don't recall seeing as anomalous a forecast as the current one. Or do I just not recall?

November 2016.

Maybe February 2018.

23
Consequences / Breakdown of the Polar Cell
« on: March 25, 2019, 01:46:24 AM »
Anybody have any ideas?  I've been looking for a good measure of the cold spinning around 2 cold poles, one over the Canadian Archipelago and one spread out across Siberia.  What's a good way to capture this empirically?

I'm not sure I understand what's being shown by wind vector anomalies in the 850-200mb range.  It does locate along the date line / GMT axis.

Specifically what i'm interested in is the tendency of the ridging from the Pacific and Atlantic  to reach the pole and isolate the two cold pools into two counterclockwise rotating patterns.  Was this dual counterclockwise pattern predicted?  Has it been studied?  I dare ask, is it new?  Is it a function of weather oscillations or purely the polar cell breaking apart in front of our eyes?

Sorry about the size of the gifs.  I'm on LTE myself.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 24, 2019, 10:49:29 AM »
Stratospheric warming is shown in GFS forecast (09.04).

Is this expected or very fast and unusual?

Wikipedia on SSW:
The radiative cycle in the stratosphere means that during winter the mean flow is westerly and during summer it is easterly (westward). A final warming occurs on this transition, so that the polar vortex winds change direction for the warming, however do not change back until the following winter. This is because the stratosphere has entered the summer easterly phase. It is final because another warming cannot occur over the summer, so it is the final warming of the current winter.

But does the final warming usually come with displacement?

In the end, to me, and to others watching, whatever the observation of record is, the whole polar cell is destabilized and acting badly.  it's been gradually destabilizing for 20 years, the fact that it has become so elongated and stringy is now morphing into the fact that it's starting to be split & destabilized more often than not.  not good.  not good.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JD009571

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 23, 2019, 11:33:48 AM »
I don't even know where to post this.  According to GFS at 8 days, Alaska is going to get a taste of southern Texas weather around April 1.

looks to me like the polar cell gets distorted into a figure 8 shape, both cores trying to fly counterclockwise.  then the arctic gets a blast of warm air.  while we're dealing with wild weather, the polar cell consolidates into a circular shape.  the whole thing rotates counterclockwise for about a week and then begins to lobe as the perimeter lengthens.  then the cold rattles around all that loose perimeter until the polar cell splits, the arctic gets a blast of warm air, and then the whole thing twangs back together again.  the cycle repeats but now it's 4 - 5 times per year.

Posting GFS and wind vector anomalies I've been looking at

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 18, 2019, 06:33:19 AM »

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 03, 2019, 12:34:39 AM »
It is worth noting that as the Bering melts out, the Great Lakes are actually still icing. [...]

well yeah. https://imgur.com/a/U6nsnfw

28
Consequences / Hurricane Season 2019
« on: February 17, 2019, 09:58:08 PM »
North of the ITCZ, February 18th, 2019.  250 miles from Micronesia, Invest 92W is organizing and has been upgraded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to Medium confidence of development.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

GFS has been showing this system growing to Cat 4-5 and then blowing north as an extratropical cyclone, right up the Bering Strait and into the Arctic.

We watched the last hurricane of the season, Oscar, turned out to sea in the Atlantic and then straight into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone.  Oscar entered the Arctic around November 1, and within days the stratospheric polar vortex began to ping pong around, a displacement which culminated in the polar vortex split and wild winter weather we are still experiencing.

It's a similar set up.  A calm, organized polar vortex at the north pole.  Incoming tropical storm.

Is it too much to anticipate, two major polar vortex disruptions in one winter?

Standard disclaimers:  GFS long range, ECMWF forecasts it much weaker, although it strengthened in the last run.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 06, 2018, 06:59:08 AM »
bbr

I don't read your posts.  I don't read the endless debate about your pet theory.  I don't care.  It's not good information.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 06, 2018, 05:16:12 AM »
bbr, do anyone a favor and google "polar vortex"

I'm not going to waste my time arguing with inexperienced people who post prodigious amounts of nonsense supporting some crank pet theory they carry as a preconceived notion.  I don't see you doing the work, just wasting everyone's time with your fantasizing and belief.  The endless stream of predictions and the seeming lack of awareness of basic meteorology, all the drama and accusations, it tells me everything about your personality and nothing about the conditions in the Arctic.

I don't care about your personality or your crank pet theories, at all.  Nobody cares about mine.  I'm not here to pretend I'm some prodigy oracle of futurecasting.  Take that trash to YouTube, you've got enough to set up a successful channel there.

if a guy like me can see through this crap, then this forum is no more valuable than YouTube cranks, Guy McPherson, and other disinformation spewing attention whores who have no intention of doing the hard work of science.

I'm done with it.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 09:09:24 PM »
This is losing its utility.

and the polar vortex isn't a ground level feature.  not all cold is a polar vortex.  maybe that's how it's used in the common vernacular, but meteorologists and climatologists have been correcting that usage since at least November of 2014 when the actual polar vortex split and the term garnered widespread attention.

Any analysis of polar vortex is done at 70mb, 50mb, or 10mb.  If you wanna call all arctic air the polar vortex, that's going to confuse the structural feature with surface phenomenon.

Sure, the PV winds are prevalent down to 350 mb, 500 mb, whatever.  it's not the winds at the ground level.

and I'll take my answer logged off.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 04:45:31 AM »
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 04:06:08 AM »
I just don't see it in the forecast.  To me it looks like the PV at any level is displaced, and the timing is coincident with the influence of an extratropical cyclone entering the arctic.  As the GFS outlook has evolved, the PV moves away from the north pole toward Svalbard and Siberia, but quickly recovers around Nov 15

I wouldn't predict necessarily but it seems to indicate milder weather mid-month for the Eastern US and Canada.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 03:30:06 AM »
...
The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.
...

Am I looking at the wrong thing?  The polar vortex?  Looks like its over Svalbard on Day 5 and the rest of the forecast has it settling down over Greenland after the wave of Oscar smacks it around a bit.

https://imgur.com/a/Z1L8w4T
gif of 11 day forecast shows it centering on the other side of Greenland from Hudson Bay.  Hudson Bay?  Am I looking at the polar vortex temperature and heights at 10mb or have I got it wrong?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2018, 08:55:21 AM »
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
That will be a huge heat injection into NW Europe and potentially the Barents.


it really smacks the polar vortex around also.  in GFS forecast, the timing of that storm entering the arctic and 10hPa displacement are bang on.  so far the GFS only arrived at a split in one run, 18Z Oct 31, and that was at the farthest end of 15 days out.  anyway, I read somewhere that extratropical cyclones can result in a SSW event, so I've been watching it close.

There's also a bit of a blocking high over eastern Europe right up to the "impact" but it's not super sticky.  Wouldn't be the earliest PV split, I think Nov 2014 was?

figure from https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 02, 2018, 09:33:11 PM »
Yeah but the D10 supports my pet theory occasionally so I get excited and start slinging predictions that I will defend against all comers and derail every conversation instead of keeping a cool head and doing the work.  I'm new here, but am I doing it right?

sorry i just see the predictions betting game as a toxic obsession WHEN it takes over the current observations thread.

start a YouTube truth channel for all that

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 01, 2018, 09:50:26 PM »
What are the predictions for the US winter ?

https://electroverse.net/another-vortex-winter-would-be-catastrophic-says-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-sending-natural-gas-to-5

"Another vortex would be catastrophic" well, if that's the case, buckle up.  The average for polar vortex displacement / split occurrence is above 1 per winter.

NOAA put out a winter outlook a couple of days ago: https://earthsky.org/earth/winter-2018-2018-weather-outlook-for-us

Figure is from a master's thesis:

Fortin, Ashley, "The Impact of a Changing Climate on the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events" (2017). Master's Theses. 4797.
http://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/etd_theses/4797

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2018, 05:35:22 PM »
please don't drag this reglaciation debate into every single thread on the forum

39
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 28, 2018, 03:34:22 AM »
i was just thinking about this and realized that to reach +2C by 2040, the rate of warming has to be .45C per decade, if we give a present value of +1C.  for 2050 it's .31C

not a huge leap for science, just to say that even the IPCC pathways expect acceleration.


40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 02:08:14 AM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Eco-author: surface temperatures in the arctic have an upper limit very near to 0C as long as there is ice to melt.  You can see this in the DMI 80N temperature anomaly charts.  Even though 80N looks at such a small area, it is generally true of the Arctic as a whole.

2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.

41
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 20, 2018, 08:29:05 AM »
Good lord.  the GFS 10 day rockets up in the latter half to +0.9C global, relative to 1979-2000 with arctic zone anomalies up to +5.8C

James Hansen always seems to go out on a limb and then pluck a golden fruit

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 05, 2018, 02:02:37 AM »
If anyone doesn't like the title of the thread

I thought it was very well done, but I've come to expect content titles to be useful instead of extremely accurate. 

You go from a study title of "Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice
losses at the basin margins"

to a science mag title of "'Archived' heat has reached deep into the Arctic interior, researchers say"

and nobody shows any interest in any of that, and the discussions never begin, and scientists remain safely silo'd and strictly literal, and 20 years goes by and scientists are blaming themselves for not properly communicating the accelerating demise of global habitability

maybe it's not the job of scientists to communicate climate change science into mitigation & adaptation policy

I'd like to apologize to any scientists who would risk their career by sharing space with someone who talks loose about arctic sea ice, and I thank you for teaching.  I'm not here to argue my darling theories.  I am not married to my suspicions..  I just don't know how to expect the arctic to refreeze after a few BOE in late summer.  How do you propose the cold upper halocline layer of the Arctic will be maintained, after weeks and months of no ice cover?

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 05, 2018, 12:41:49 AM »
if is see this correctly the title of this thread contains "year-round"

we're supposed to be talking about this paper: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-archived-deep-arctic-interior.html

"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said. "Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

Well, for a long time people have been talking about how that halocline cold water lens in the arctic could be mixed with warmer atlantic/pacific water layers below.  waves at the surface are a big factor.  however briefly the arctic is ice-free, we can demonstrate that it'll have more waves than it did with sea ice.

also, the latent heat of fusion of ice should play a large role.  I don't want to get my numbers mixed up, but it takes a lot more heat to raise the temperature of water 1 degree C through the melting point than it takes to raise water 1 degree C above the melting point?

and finally, of course, albedo goes from (very roughly) reflecting 80% of heat to absorbing 80% of heat.

there are quite a few reasons why the first loss of sea ice in the arctic could hypothetically mean drastic changes for the arctic, the earth's pattern of climate, and I think many people expect the first blue ocean event to be a step change in global climate...

Nobody really has any clue what's going to happen, but paleo-climatology would suggest this system has an ability to transition quickly and grow cycads in the arctic circles.  So, let's not pretend to be foolish and act like the ice age climate will be happily circulating heat in the same ways when the atmosphere has a hothouse quantity of greenhouse gas.

Nobody has modeled abrupt climate change to give us any idea what it looks like.  that's probably why reports such as the one being discussed in this thread are rather interesting... and it is extremely alarming, but it's hard to see it as particularly unlikely.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 07, 2018, 09:04:13 PM »
Interesting kink in the DMI temps recently, probably being facilitated by the high latent heat of peripheral seas.

Wonder how this will affect refreeze, particularly in the ESS.

Latent Heat of fusion will normally peg temps around freezing over melt season. Only when there is so little ice will the temp rise to reflect the waters temp instead.

I think this is why you see a warm arctic - cold continents signal in the 2M temperature anomaly during winters.  God forbid we see the signal in plots of 2M temperature.

Attached is reanalysis month by month of 2007-2017 vs 1979-2000 (click to animate)


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 07, 2018, 04:14:05 PM »
Here's my dumb (but verifiable) prediction for five weeks from now.  Assuming a lot of this late-season heat on the continents continues to work it's way north and a mostly sunny regime on the East Siberian side.

Did I measure this correctly?

how did you measure this?

Free software called Quantum GIS.  https://www.qgis.org/en/site/   I'm using an imagery layer from http://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/ and a plugin for "georeferencing" rasters images that have no coordinate reference system.  So I just switched projection to a polar equal area, manipulated the screenshot image from worldview until it matched up with the coast lines.  then it is very simple to measure the area.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 07, 2018, 05:12:59 AM »
Excellent.  I learned something today.  2012 minimum arctic sea ice extent was 3.41M km².  The main mass of icepack polygon comes in at 3.23km².

So the number does include the CAA and other sea ice outside of the main pack.  Here's what 2012 looks like compared to Greenbelt's guesstimate:

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 07, 2018, 04:22:10 AM »
Here's my dumb (but verifiable) prediction for five weeks from now.  Assuming a lot of this late-season heat on the continents continues to work it's way north and a mostly sunny regime on the East Siberian side.

Did I measure this correctly?


49

There will be no critical mass and if there is it will only bring about cataclysm sooner than later due to the reduction in aerosols and resultant boost to AGW of +.5C-+1.5C. We are screwed and there is no hope. Sorry!

I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write.

50
I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

I got curious about WACCy results so I created this gif, ERA-I temperature difference of 1979-2000 vs 2007-2017.  (click to animate)

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