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Messages - sark

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1
Global atmospheric angular momentum anomaly 2018-2019.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: polar vortex - where?
« on: November 13, 2019, 09:55:11 AM »
This type of chart is a cross section of the entire polar cell, basically.  Geopotential height = what altitude in feet is a certain pressure reading.  This type of chart has a scale of pressure from top to bottom, and the colors represent height anomalies.  Warm air expands and a big area of warm air is high pressure and takes up more space in the atmosphere, so the geopotential height rises

charts can be found here: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

watch some Gav's weather vids and Nutrien Ag Solutions forecasts on YouTube and you'll find someone who explains these bits clearly for you

Basically when you look at the Arctic on something like https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/ and you see heat anomalies at the surface, pretty sure fire bet there's a high geopotential height anomaly just about directly overhead

We've had a huge geopotential height anomaly over the Arctic for the past 7 months, more than any other year

it comes down to polar vortex destruction pretty much in both hemispheres

3
I'm so lost, Sark.  Sorry for my ignorance, but what is the GIF showing?

That gif is a 500 mb anomaly from Tropical Tidbits for a mid-August GFS run with an overlaid gif of mechanical precession.

I put it together because it is always possible to see, sometimes quite obvious to see, a retrograde wave of high pressure against the Rossby waves.  The timing seems to be somewhere around 8 days.

Bear in mind this is in forecast and an analysis of operational hour 0's would be more fruitful.  I'm probably working on stringing those together next, to create a chart gif consisting of only historical data as modeled in these weather models with no forecast data, spanning over a month's time, for example.

I'm tending toward this concept that the heat incursions, atmospheric height anomalies, and flow characteristics over the Arctic are less Rossby waves and more "mechanical".  Thought experiment: If the troposopheric polar vortex starts fragmenting, that's bigger than Rossby wave breaks.  In fact, the cycle of fragmentation and slamming back together in the tropospheric polar vortex would guide Rossby wave patterns, as opposed to Rossby wave peaks breaking in the Arctic causing the same thing.

Because dual-and-simultaneous ridges from both sides of the planet meeting at the North Pole doesn't look like Rossby waves to me.  It looks like the polar cell ripping into fragments, mainly two, causing two ridges to be pulled into the Arctic in the void left behind

These aren't wave breaks, it's just empty space where there used to be a polar cell.

The interaction between the packets of "polar cell" is becoming more like the Fujiwhara effect

4
GFS runs have all slammed into alignment suddenly.  GFS accuracy at 7 days is trending pessimistic

The polar cell is wobbling, gyrating, as well as splitting up?  As a vortex this thing is "roping out" and forming stringers.  that's my view

5
there's been a real nice oscillation going on this thing all year long ... but ... if this wave is normal howcome there's no word for it when I ask?

folks, I'm sorry about these gifs :>

6
"you all know what happens next right"

I do not

What happens next?

it splashes back together again in the middle

7
Since the forecast for this November was so similar to reanalysis Nov '18

I tacked Nov '18 onto the end of the past 6 months

Nothing like it since at least 1948.  November is not needed for that trick.  There is a huge structural anomaly over the North Pole this year.  It is not like the other years.  Not even as bad as summers of 1959 or 1960.  The polar cell is getting shredded apart right now, not like usual.

I bicycled out of the San Juan mountains of Colorado in November of 2016, traveling South.  I remember 2016 on these same charts.  November of 2016 was astonishingly bad, but I remember thinking it's not runaway, got bored and turned away.  It was expected to be bad

May - October, not a time known for Arctic Amplification, with a 6 month polar height anomaly of A HUNDRED METERS

that's unexpected.

we are having a tremendous world-record colossal polar geopotential height centered right over the North Geomagnetic Pole, slashing right through our traditionally stable seasons

nobody can freak out because they'd lose their health insurance.  I get it.  what if next year gets better and it won't do us in until the next solar minimum?  then you'd look like a real jerk

the tropics are flooding freely into the central Arctic like never before, and basically the whole system of polar vorticity just octopuses out in response.  What was that ancient hypothesis of Open Polar Sea, the polar cell is made of islands and the North Pole is Tropical?  maybe a genetic memory of the the late Eocene?

well, that's gonna speed up the day.

whatever is stacked up to cause this is a threat and needs to be confronted IMHO

Lord Jesus, Be a Sunspot

8
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 04, 2019, 06:32:42 AM »
Keep doing your thang.

well here's the deal.  I'm not going to put forward any effort.  I won't necessarily lock, delete, keep going, or stop.

anyone can come and deface it with denier style reasoning and that's fine.  I'm basically finished with the work and the thread is probably not going to be useful, going forward.  this is not the appropriate place, frankly.

that being said, there's really no reason to stop posting updates either.  I just don't know if that will happen or not.

let's hope the idea is batshit and this can come out as a climate thriller novel in a year.  that would be fun.

for now I'll just point you to my twitter @systemrename which gets updated more frequently, because it's been more convenient.  https://twitter.com/systemrename

9
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2019, 11:50:44 PM »
locked or unlocked makes no difference to me.  it's unlocked.

10
This line of thinking should be assessed by someone else.  It's not going to be debated emotionally here on this hobby forum.  I'm not here to play scientist with you lot or participate in a nerd fight.

How many times can I repeat the thesis in question?  It must be a round peg for square holes.

Polar vortex destruction is leading to decreasing atmospheric angular momentum, which is a feedback upon itself.

Major factors include:

1) ocean heat / thin sea ice
2) solar minimum
3) annual geopotential heights

If this is true, it is an unassessed feedback in dynamics that could meet the definition of abrupt runaway, a self-reinforcing feedback loop that leads to a relatively rapid change of system mode.

If not true, we'll see AAM roar positive, continuing to oscillate along a reasonable trend line, even if long term in decline.  In that case, it's just abrupt normal apocalyptic mainstream climate change,  which is well covered already.

I've not seen it addressed yet, that's what I'm here for.  I appreciate defending this line of thinking against solid reasoning, but this isn't going to become another forum nerd fight.  This is just a place to put it all down for future reference.

It might be evident in precipitation quantities that exceed the increase expected by mean global temperature.  It might be evident in winds or relative AAM.  I don't even have access to the GSDM as the CPC product was taken down and passwords on GSDMsolutions changed *both* within the past year.

What do I do at this point?

11
Of course we have positive geopotential height anomalies over the arctic. That happens almost by definition! Arctic Amplification creates warmer air above the Arctic hence the anomalies.
And yes, as we move forward, the anomalies will be bigger and bigger.
Yet, it does not mean that the world is ending (yet)

Strawman

1.
an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

and it's a real habit

12
these are the years that stuck out in JJA anomalies and a couple of them beat '19 in severity & focus on the North Pole

but now we're kind of pushing 7 months straight :/

I'll have to re-do this on all the years in the archive using May-Oct to know if it beats all.  meanwhile the 06Z GFS is coming in

13
It usually doesn't happen all Spring & Summer & Autumn with a period of under 16 days, and then spread to the Southern Hemisphere.

Best I can suggest is check the rainfall quantities.  This should have increased more than the temperature increase would suggest, due to the falling AAM.

if this was 1968 or 1977 there would be less of a problem because the geopotential height over the Arctic was deep.  thick sea ice.  Now we seem to have the issue outlined above.  whatever influences are piled on here are resulting in a system that is showing signs of breaking.

How many stratospheric splits and SSW has the NHEM experienced since 2013?  Seems it ain't 0.6 per year.

14
This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact

that's a different attribute at a different level.  no bite on the attitude.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=39&run=18&time=252&lid=OP&h=1&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

16
notice the tropopause?

17
Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November. 

There is absolutely no polar vortex spilt on any models, any timeframes at all

This is for 12 Nov at 50hPa

18
The Southern Hemisphere's winter polar vortex has been destroyed by the Sudden Stratospheric Warming that began at the end of austral winter.

I will take questions now.

19
This is an 18 October Global Synoptic-Dynamic Model plot showing 4 weeks of information that is able to be conveyed on a single chart.  It's called a phase space diagram and you'd have to watch Ed Berry explain it on YouTube. 

I had the good fortune to run into this recently. (first image)  It shows conditions leading to barely neutral to negative global wind

The AAM is computed by interolating forecast of the operational numerical weather model:  http://aam.earthrotation.net/rt/

GIFS 1 & 2 Northern Hemisphere & Southern Hemisphere show complete polar vortex breakdown at all  levels.  Something is wrong.

Below that is the ECMWF at hour 240 around November 11 which is still on an 8 day cycle of the polar cell gyrating in & out as it turns atop the Earth.  Once the rest of this area fills in and the winter tropospheric polar cell gets going, there are models indicating very low sea level pressure over the Arctic in DJF.  Well, maybe the built up atmospheric angular momentum that is conserved in models by parameter wants to now push it forward and create a very strong zonal jet stream over the U.S.  why not

I hope it works that way but about half of these waves are breaking through the jet stream in late Summer - Autumn

Anyway, a lot of the other indicators like La Nina temps off the South American West coast suggest continued negative global wind speed (Mr) as measured atmospheric angular momentum.

In that lecture linked above on this page of Ed Berry in 2018, he speaks about a risk.  Atmospheric super-rotation, a condition in which tropical convection firing in the ITCZ tends to accelerate the atmosphere faster than the Earth's rotation

Ed also attests to a recent (since the 90's) trend of lower AAM, while he also asks *why* does thin sea ice lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation.

I think they lost faith in the GSDM after 2018.  Just like the Madden-Julian Oscillation long-range weather indicator is increasingly stuck in Phase 8, 1,  and 2

Academics aren't allowed to say this stuff, and in Ed's lecture he doesn't finish the sentence, but an atmospheric super-rotation is what most planets do.  Like Venus.  He may have been about to describe the differences in where waves originate on such bodies

We are at points on both of those renowned teleconnections GWO and MJO indicating low atmospheric angular momentum and seem to be stuck there

In forecast these products rely on models but they have to be watched real time, but they should outperform numerical models

well they do.  the remaining polar low is in such a shape that it causes a split vortex.  We see it when polar arms get spun out by tropical highs busting right through the jet stream and sticking to the North Pole until they dissipate. 

Maybe a big driver of that is solar minimum.  I kinda pray it.  It's also super obvious that another big factor is thin Arctic sea ice.

What I don't think *anybody* expected was according disruption of the Southern polar cell.

We're right now seeing a sudden stratospheric warming following through from the stratosphere to the ground and it is predicted to final warm the winter polar vortex over Antarctica in the next few days.  Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November.  This could be the earliest polar vortex sudden warming in NH winter ever.  I tend to think it will slightly defy description.

what we are seeing since 2013 and especially 2016, 2018, and 2019 is atmospheric restructuring.  all the processes of a stable global interglacial distribution of ground temperatures are broken.  the polar vortex, jet stream, zonal mass, and geopotential height over the poles.

this is the hothouse Eocene climate waking up.  how long is that supposed to take, 3-15 years?

WHY?  Well, one explanation is a self-reinforcing bad feedback loop worldwide with all these fatal factors piling on at once.

Jesus, be a sun spot.

21
IMHO

Yes, if it is weather in the continental midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.  what we experience of weather is largely derived from the expression of the polar cell in this fluid system

Outside of the central tropics, the Earth's atmosphere progresses East, headed toward the rising sun.  Westerly Atmosphere flow.  Prevailing winds from the West

Overall the sky is flinging forward of the Earth's rotation, spinning faster than the planet.  this atmosphere direction is called zonal flow.  U+

it's a spiral from equator to pole.  like a twist top ice cream cone

where it twists, there's a jet stream

the polar cell is like a candy cherry garnish.  but your treat is melting in the sun & a little pool underneath the cherry has sent it adrift and it's wobbling around on top.

why not

Zonal flow causes winds from the West, or Westerlies, and these winds progress zonally like from Seattle to New York.

this could be described with flight of aircraft and angular momentum in the atmosphere & earth but thrust and friction and landing weight, a bit of a stretch for me, let's be honest

the opposite of zonal is meridional and that's wind blowing North South.  V+  Well,  since about the mid-1990's and definitely increasing the entire time since then is WHAT!?  not just of the jet stream, but everything.  literally weather extremes of ridges and lows and pretty much all storms.  Your situation is exactly that, something that always existed, but now it's severe weather.  The jet stream is crashing into the Earth.

well the major torque exerted between the rotating earth, the rotating fluid core, and the rotating atmosphere, and hell Retrograde planets & the Sun too, it is conserved.  AAM -is- slowing over time in our measurements.  Meridional measurements are pretty good and um, wow

https://www.timeanddate.com/time/earth-rotation.html#calc-daylength

because all the North South long contorted dissolving breaking jet stream action has begun scrubbing into the Earth with meridional friction.  letting the clutch out.

the Earth is speeding up.  the Earth's relative motion with regard to the atmosphere is catching up.  Days are shorter and gravity waves are sound

Climate models need to have atmospheric angular momentum reinforced with a parameter so it is not lost, because they're still practicing on the QBO

if GW isn't conserved in an atmospheric model, the energy basically gets "rained out" and the south pole gets very cold, because they don't have waves that can jack into the strength of the Antarctic winter polar vortex, which would become deeper in a warming model

the suspected reason for the too cold pole is the lack of wave interaction with the winter PV over Antarctica... so this SSW we are still having over Antarctica nearing its final warming.  Brutal

Because the slowing at the north pole has translated to the Southern hemisphere with some torque of its own and the whole entire atmosphere got VERY slow recently, about the slowest on record from when I had a chance to see a good record of AAM.  Right around Oct 1

So yeah pretty much any annoying weather is your own personal observation of it since the 90's but obviously since 2014

22
I read somewhere, when looking up the cold pole problem, that not conserving atmospheric angular momentum would also increase precipitation. 

But we don't have a cold South Pole right now.  In fact,

Both polar cells are failing now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

23
Nothing anyone says sounds right to me any more.  It was a mistake to bring up markets around humans.

My mistake

Fight me

24
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: October 22, 2019, 06:18:47 AM »
Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

"Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario"

Susan M. Natali, Jennifer D. Watts, […]Donatella Zona
Nature Climate Change (2019)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0592-8

25
posting a wide image.  it is the product at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

because the "event" of summer 2019 goes clear back to May 1,  it is necessary to bolt two of these together

What you're seeing is a diagram of atmospheric height anomalies in the entire column of atmosphere in the Arctic.  This is a slowing

and folks, I'm not sure what is the seasonality of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum or Global Wind Speed calculation.  I know nothing about AAM. 

so here is a comparison of Arctic atmosphere average heights to AAM.

it'd be nice to build a polar cell map wall

*edit: almost gave myself a heart attack so I drew a box to illustrate the line up of the two, so the features don't look too similar

26
I don't disagree with anything you are all saying except the bit about "shame" or "peer pressure" ... because LOL

no one is in danger of shutting me up

I have a timing belt job to do today or I would be writing this down from start to finish.  I work 55 hrs a week or there would be more time to put this down in coherent language.  As it is, I spend every waking moment outside of work going through what I've gleaned from 20 years of watching the planet's weather system contorting, in order to understand what is happening to our weather, what is wrong with the system, and therefore how it will look in the near future.

I am completely untrained and non-academic and these thoughts & opinions are formed out of casual observation of 20 years.  During the past year it has become a closely watched obsession because of the 500 millibar charts of the Northern Hemisphere (polar stereographic).  Watching the charts in motion during the past year has revealed something that is new and as yet unassessed by any science I can find...

Instead of a central polar cold basin in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, the system is being stretched out to TWO main poles of cold, one centered over the Kara Sea and the other Hudson Bay.  These two poles of cold are extremely evident in weather forecasts, reanalysis, and climate studies which model the impact of thin sea ice.

Zonal winds on planet Earth are Westerly, yes?  In fact, if you were floating in geostationary orbit, the Earth's rotation would be Westerly.  Headed toward the East.  So, the atmosphere is flinging forward of the rotation of the Earth.  From East to West. 

Jets form up where this spiraling North pattern of zonal wind folds over itself.  A rough illustration of a northward westerly spiral on a globe is offered in image 2

The climate system of the Earth is a twist on a globe.  It's also possible to think of it as a *whistle* but that's going to be a tough sell I think

So what have we all been seeing for 20-30 years in macro weather on Earth?  Jet stream ridges and troughs amplified.  Arctic Amplification.  The central theory behind why jet stream waviness is increasing is that the atmospheric heights over the Arctic are rising.  There is a decreased slope from Tropics to Pole in the atmospheric height.

When this effect becomes as extreme as we have seen in the past 3-5 years, the two main poles of cold emerge in all of the charts.  Now you get vorticity axes pulled out of the central Arctic and pinwheeling around TWO locations.  Grinding gears.  Two low pressure centers of atmosphere in close proximity.  What happens where they grind?  Well, you create two HIGH pressure centers at a 90 degree angle.  Thus, the quadrupole.  Not a dipole, a quadrupole.  Dynamically, the two low pressure centers are cast apart while the high pressure centers wheel in to the center.  From both sides of the Earth simultaneously, "blobs" or anticyclones breaking *through* the jet stream to reach the Arctic basin in chronic and repeated fashion.

Ok, well blocks and blobs and jet stream ridges have been with us forever, right?  What's the difference?  it's the *dynamics* now.  The fluid is churning.  Imagine a bathtub drain vortex.  As the water level decreases, the vortex begins to distort as the influence of waves generated in the fluid impact the rotation.  Well what would you expect if there are two drain holes down there instead of one?  A mighty slurp!  It will slow down the vortex through the effect of small amplitude, high frequency waves.

What happens eventually is the rotation of the body of water slows down and the water simply proceeds straight into the center without circling the drain.  Tropics to pole direct.

Right now we're in this chaos transition from a spiraling northward climate system to one more similar to an equable climate system.

It's been circling the drain forever.  Now the heights are such that the drain is slurping.  As a result, the circling slows.

As a wave guide, the geopotential height over the Arctic used to be more of an oval.  Now it is a figure of 8.  This is a catastrophic breakdown in the dynamical process that creates weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere.  We've been watching it happen for 20 years.

Atmospheric Angular Momentum is SLOWING

Every single climate model is tested to ensure that Atmospheric Angular Momentum is CONSERVED so that it does NOT run away.

IN THE REAL WORLD IT IS RUNNING AWAY

I mean look around... Does anyone think things will stop getting worse?

This is a feedback that is not assessed.  Prove me wrong, please!

27
at all levels practically.

doesn't matter that we still have sea ice.  whatever is wrong is already wrong too much, by looking around

I don't even need a bunch of fancy analogs, just use the last 3 or 5 years.

I question everything and wouldn't be surprised to see everything swing the other direction even worse.  I can't tell what the pattern of this quadrupole shape is actually doing right now, because the signal of rise in common atmosphere heights is so fast it blows out anything else.  the point is, what we already got is too much to take.  I'll tell you one thing, it's not gonna stop getting worse.  what's the rate it's already worsening at, collapsey?  This is apocalyptic.

Stupid polar cell is failing, we get it.  that's what the science all proved years ago.  Now there's new papers coming out of China in 2019 that I don't even want to read any more.  I've talked about this because it's to the point I'm thinking last hail mary moves to make.  I want to know more but it may have to wait

the risk of BAU is too much for me.  I might bug out a little early and catch some more conifer forests before they're gone.  I don't necessarily think fast collapse is in our DNA and it'll be much more like 2035 before human population peaks, but that's cynical and based on what we all do next

you be the judge

28
Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.

Operating theory is "we are in a runaway abrupt climate flip" and I want to disprove it to myself, but bear it in mind that I am completely unconstrained in my thinking & language.  Full power Dunning-Kruger.  This is from a lone mind bent on survival.  I don't have any allegiance or hesitancy based on academic norms.

I managed to click on the running mean AO index from 1950-present over here https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml

Added Paint.exe black line connecting the Jan 1 position for the last couple of years.  It would seem reasonable to guess that the AO index will be hovering around neutral on Jan 1 2020.

29
I tend to believe the weather models that line up with the near term climatology.  that whole quadrupole thing is coming back in a big way.  See how many isobar figure 8s you can find across the north pole https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019101212&fh=1

240 hour GEM *is* the tropopause anomaly.  this is what is meant with "lining up with the climatology" as I understand it.  this thing is a wave guide for weather we don't like

30
It's the dynamics

31
Dr. Judah Cohen at the AER Risk Assessment has identified a coupling of tropospheric and stratospheric polar lows, looking forward about 10 days time.  This would create a proper basin in atmospheric heights over the Arctic for a positive arctic oscillation mode, with a slightly less "wavy" jet stream, or at least one that isn't dissolving as much

This forecast is an improvement and it would, for the first time, interrupt the 5 straight months of high anomalies over vast reaches of the Arctic.  We would get less severe weather, and I think zonal flow would start to strengthen.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1181231290349215744

It was famously predicted, here in this thread, that there will be jet streams at the north pole 4 times, 8 days apart.  I didn't want to predict anything because of how much of a complete nonsense Dunning Kruger I am on this, but I went down the rabbit hole to see for myself, so might as well see what it's worth.
 
2018/2019 was a cold winter on this chart, never expected it to be so well behaved again?
 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Well what have I heard a dozen times?  That the recovery enables the big anomaly.  A big melt year will be preceded by a recovery year.

In systems thinking you could also identify a return to normal right before an outright crash.  Resistance right at the breaking point.

What I do, is just like... we could be experiencing mixed modes of ice age inter-glacial vs. Eocene Hothouse and be losing angular momentum as a result.  That would, complete wild guess, be a feedback that is not assessed.  Climate models are tested for retained atmospheric angular momentum, because it is a value that is assumed to be conserved in our future.  Well if there's this much mixing, where's the friction?  Adiabatic heating and wave interference along with heavier storm bursts.  Raising the tropopause 15 meters worldwide was a really bad idea.  It allows waves from the tropics to cross over the north pole.

So I am extremely interested in how this forecast plays out.  I want to be wrong about there being perpetual splashes of jet stream across the Arctic four or eight days apart, making it look like the whole atmosphere is stalling. 

It never should have lasted this long.  Since May 1 2019.  I thought it would not have lasted this long, but stratospheric polar vortex was always gonna stomp all over this thing in the end.  There will be a stratospheric PV formation just like every winter.  It will catch a wave and begin to pinball around the Arctic in November, and it will experience a messy destruction in January or February with cruel cold Arctic outbreaks in the Upper Plains & Great Lakes, and this will be completely normal and boring compared to the past five months of 2019.

I know some predictive tools have been bullish on a very strong polar vortex signal with definite AO+ NAO+ going back 6 weeks.  Now it's showing up in the weather models.

If this is coming true, then there will not be a large heat anomaly and accompanying jet stream ridge breaking off into a cut off high in the vicinity of the North Pole on October 16-18 and there is hope for a real change in the pattern.

and if not*, I will bug out early, see you in Patagonia where we will eat beavers and wait for land to open up in Antarctica

I will be watching the ocean heat anomalies

I will be watching the polar cap height FOR SOME BLUE https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

The AO index and predictability: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

And I will be watching very closely for evidence we aren't bleeding AAM like we're dying http://atlas.niu.edu/

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 08:18:15 AM »
bbr, give us a way to send blessings.  post paypal here or in pm.  defense

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 08:15:54 AM »
Winter Hype

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 06:34:44 AM »
+/- 200 meters

5 day running average height anomaly for the bottom half of the atmosphere, for September 2019

This is a violent start to the season of obscene weather in the Arctic.  October.  November.  There will be a SSW or splitting or both in DJF.  Arctic air outbreaks pinwheeling around Hudson Bay.

200 meter blobs meeting at the North Pole on the first day of October.  Good God.

Ocean oscillations + Ocean heat + solar minimum + thin sea ice + sudden loss of dimming

I think people are confusing weather with a restructuring of the atmosphere.

* https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2019, 10:09:51 AM »
48 hours out

2 meter temperature anomaly from GFS 00z Sept 28 2019

the nascent polar vortex is weakening

Who knows at this point.  Buckle up for October, although there are signs that atmospheric momentum is picking up, maybe because the polar cell being flung across the continents creates a lot of interaction with the land.  Maybe solar activity picks up a little bit (who knew)?  Maybe a bunch of ice melts.  Maybe the oceans will stop slacking on the job.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 11:32:47 AM »
Arctic air is being flung out of the Arctic.  High pressure dominates at the North Pole.  What will keep the vorticity together, the Fujiwhara effect?

It's already in the forecast.  Big cut off lows.  Spain saw one already.  Lots of cold fronts and lots and lots of meridional transport between equator & pole.

The polar cell is junk

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 10:14:14 AM »
it's like zonal mass.  sum total of everything torquing the atmosphere

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 09:16:02 AM »
Can anyone verify AAM is dropping

Nevermind, I found one.  http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

From the looks of things, going to be one hell of a cold dunk into winter for Northern Hemisphere civilization.  All at once.

The Arctic will stay fed by high pressure parcels every 4 days for the first half of October.

Here's a year of AAM

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 09:06:01 AM »
Can anyone verify AAM is dropping

40
Past 15 days have been lining up to something really pretty global.  October 4th is when it all sort of comes to fruition and we have hot oceans, thin sea ice, solar minimum, SSW

Something to do with AAM.  Anybody know where to see a forecast of atmospheric angular momentum?  (password changed)

Edit: http://atlas.niu.edu/

41
This is one of the rare signs of recovery that have come & gone in 2019 ... something has to break this pattern or we'll have to restart the polar cell ourselves

First long range indication from GFS ensemble of a true positive break in the AO index.  Some such forecasts have come & gone but it has long been expected that the anomaly will subside at some point before winter, and all expectations have been disappointments since the first of May.  Well... here comes the first chance we have,  I think, to see a break in the pattern.

A tighter AO would I believe have good implications for weather worldwide, or at least in the Northern Hemisphere, by around October's end.  Less superblizzards and droughts everywhere, perhaps.  Less hail damage too.

I don't believe the AO can be positive much longer.  If these types of years are 3 out of 10, what would one of these do to the Arctic in 10 years?  say, next solar minimum?  No sea ice + tropical air has a tendency to reach the North Pole because of sunspots or some other cycle 

The Arctic would absolutely flip to tropical.

Greenland would be all that is left to provide us with a jet stream.

In ten years nothing will be ready for that kind of thing.  We would collapse & die off.  Permafrost would double the GHG again.  It would runaway.

It's just us

42
actually, I take that back.  the June July August heights in 1977, 2007, and 2011 heights are all very sharp and pronounced, with wide areas above 110 meters.

in 2019 the stability of high height anticyclonic air over the North Pole is apparently nothing compared to those years, in JJA.  the persistence is all new, of this there is, so far, no doubt.

I wish there was better ways to see past weather.  This analog effort appears to be handy.

This would be the best chart to run.  "Atmospheric Polar Cap Height"  Anybody know how to make them?

43
Once again sark, please, explain your meaning a little bit better

High pressure is dominating at the pole featuring intense meridional transport.  The system is locking into a wave 4.  And, it looks like a swastika.

44
The way I understand it:

Rossby waves climbing up & over the winter PV is the stratospheric sudden warming process.  The waves have to perturbate the atmosphere in a proper configuration for the SSW to occur.  Wave strength is not as important as timing.

I would expect:

The configuration required for a SSW event is aligning in the entire structure of climate & oceans, leading to increased destabilization of the polar vortices at both poles.

45
The ITCZ clouds move north and south throughout the year but normally north of the equator.

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/itcz/index.html

http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/users/xie/ITCZ.html

46
Anthony Masiello the absolute God

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1175450831849775104

All defined stratospheric pressure levels are seeing new temperature minimums set over the Tropics, but 30mb for 25°S-25°N stands out. Any other SH strat-disturbed year (e.g. 2002) didn't see a response like this over the Tropics (strat data sets aren't great)!

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 04:46:32 AM »
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.

48
The hunch I have fostered is that the dynamics were not properly assessed... because of evidence like these

Based on how absolutely mad the weather has been.

I don't recall ever hearing about two polar cells "oh it looks like we have two polar cells."  Never.

Oh, by the way.  The pattern is changing to  an inverted quadrupole.  I didn't invent quadrupole (It's in Mitchell, 2013).  I'm pretty sure I did invent Octopole to describe the atmosphere

I work 55 hours a week machining parts, haha.

Enhanced Stratosphere/Troposphere Coupling During Extreme Warm Stratospheric Events with Strong Polar-Night Jet Oscillation

Atmosphere 2018, 9(12), 467; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120467

Enhanced Stratosphere/Troposphere Coupling During Extreme Warm Stratospheric Events with Strong Polar-Night Jet Oscillation
by Dieter H.W. Peters, Andrea Schneidereit, Alexey Y. Karpechko
1
Leibniz-Institute for Atmospheric Physics, University of Rostock, Ostseebad Kühlungsborn, D-18225 Mecklenburg, Germany
2
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Arctic Research, PL 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland

Extreme warm stratospheric events during polar winters from ERA-Interim reanalysis and CMIP5-ESM-LR runs were separated by duration and strength of the polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) using a high statistical confidence level of three standard deviations (strong-PJO events). With a composite analysis, we demonstrate that strong-PJO events show a significantly stronger downward propagating signal in both, northern annular mode (NAM) and zonal mean zonal wind anomaly in the stratosphere in comparison with non-PJO events. The lower stratospheric EP-flux-divergence difference in ERA-Interim was stronger in comparison to long-term CMIP5-ESM-LR runs (by a factor of four). This suggests that stratosphere–troposphere coupling is stronger in ERA-Interim than in CMIP5-ESM-LR. During the 60 days following the central date (CD), the Arctic oscillation signal was more intense during strong-PJO events than during non-PJO events in ERA-Interim data in comparison to CMIP5-ESM-LR runs. During the 15-day phase after CD, strong PJO events had a significant increase in stratospheric ozone, upper tropospheric zonally asymmetric impact, and a regional surface impact in ERA-Interim. Finally, we conclude that the applied high statistical threshold gives a clearer separation of extreme warm stratospheric events into strong-PJO events and non-PJO events including their different downward propagating NAM signal and tropospheric impacts.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/12/467/htm

49
Quote
Something's puzzling me: at 2m52 what do you mean by "circuits"?

I think he is saying electrical circuits, among the things he studied, along the way with optics and then finally fluids caught his attention

Yes, this guy is amazing.  Also, the work he did is a truer description of how the atmosphere is coupled.  It only makes sense, but to actually put it into a chart is hard.

50
No I'm not a Dr. but probably need one

posting these here for posterity

I'm at a 3 out of 5 on alarm right now.  But my mood swings with the AO index.

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