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Messages - sidd

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I thought the numbers in those AR5 graph showing anthro carbon emissions on the x axis were taken directly from the prescribed RCPs while the temperature rise and risk factors were from AR5 results ?

A much bigger issue is, as AbruptSLR has pointed out in this very thread, that feedbacks will probably increase atmospheric carbon load both in  CO2 and CH4 more than AR5 thought.

AR6 is going to use something called  "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSPs)

which seem prescribe land use changes and fluxes and a whole bunch of other things to drive CMIP6 models. But the SSPs were developed even before the deadline for AR6 papers. So i think they are already out of date.

The things are out of date when published. My larger point is, that is not the fault of the IPCC but rather the procedure. They need to publish updates yearly, but they haven't the budget for it. Sad, innit ?


Re: "Isn't it peculiar that Yasmin.Edwards is both the lead author on the section covering sea level rise AND submitting literature relevant to the same section which downplays the right tail risk? "

Not particularly. Agreed that her research is in conflict with other work. If you think that impedes her judgement, i will point out she has not the final word on what will go into AR6 SLR. It is a communal process.

The real fight comes over the executive summary, where countries like Bonesaw kingdom water the language.

But W(orking)G(roup)1 WG1 in the reports are quite clear. I think that AR6, like AR5, will be out of date by publication, but that is a different matter. Sorta like MICI with Bassis and Walker coming out shortly after the deadline for AR5.

As to the point made by AbruptSLR about CMIP6 models coming in hot for ECS: you cannot fault AR5 for ignoring CMIP6 models completed years later. AR5 was looking at CMIP5 results.

Also i think the name is "Tasmin Edwards"


Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: May 18, 2019, 06:17:43 AM »
Re: " Maybe the models sidd is referring to use the 150x multiplier "

Grr, I have not made myself clear. Models have no concept of "multipliers." They use a representative concentration pathway (RCP, CMIP5) or a shared socioecoconomic pathway (SSP, CMIP6) and use the concentration at a given time to calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing using the MODTRAN/successor codes. Then they integrate this calculation in time for the cumulative heating. This implicitly includes everything that is simplistically called a "multiplier." They also have the atmospheric chemistry modules that calculate decay of methane and other unstable greenhouse gases, and they have fluxes for water vapour, and CO2 and CH4 and many other fluxes in/out of the atmosphere/ocean/land.

The Paris agreement for 2.0C was done using RCPs and CMIP5. That used a straight scaling of RCP2.5 .  I dont know what the hell the 1.5 C target uses.

"Multipliers" are a hopelessly simplistic concept to use for the incredibly varied gamut of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. Use the models instead.


Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: May 17, 2019, 09:33:56 AM »
Climate models already do use the "immediate" impact of methane and everything else. They use the modtran codes and derivatives to calculate instantaneous radiative imbalance. Then they integrate over time to get the long term results. And thats the right way to do it.



Schoof has written the gospel on marine ice sheet instability, his 2007 paper is indispensable. The seminal paper on marine ice cliff instability was Bassis and Walker. Pollard and DiConto are the first (but not the only ones) to incorporate the latter into ice sheet models. 


Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 14, 2019, 11:22:05 PM »
I have planted thousands of trees in my life. You have to be careful, consider the tree, the land and the climate to come. I am glad to say that the majority are doing well, and i try to go visit them as often as I may.

I must say i have removed hundreds of invasive trees as well ...


The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: May 14, 2019, 11:19:33 PM »
Syria poison gas attack further debunked: OPCW engineering report leaked

"both cylinders were manually placed at those two locations rather than being delivered from aircraft."


The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: May 14, 2019, 08:03:40 AM »
As usual, Michael Pollan puts the putative dichotomy very well. In his book "Second Nature"

"But the discovery that time and chance hold sway even in nature can also be liberating. Because contingency is and invitation to participate in history. Human choice is unnatural only if nature is deterministic, human change is unnatural only if she is changeless in our absence."

"if its history will always be the product of myriad chance events, then why shouldn't we also claim our place among all those deciding factors ? "

"what if nature decides on Japanese honeysuckle -- three hundred years of wall-to-wall brush ? ... At this point in history when humans have left their stamp on virtually every corner of the Earth, doing nothing is frequently a poor recipe ..."

"if we do nothing we may end up with an impoverished weed patch"

" "All or nothing" says the wilderness ethic, and in fact we have ended up with a landscape in America that conforms to that injunction ... Americans have done an admirable job of drawing lines around certain sacred areas ... and a terrible job of managing the rest of our land. ... Once a landscape is not longer "virgin" it is typically written off as fallen. We hand it over to the jurisdiction that other sacrosanct American ethic: laissez-faire economics. "You might as well build put up condos" And so, we do. "

"indeed the wilderness ethic and laissez-faire economics are really mirror images of one another. Each proposes a quasi-divine force  --- Nature, the Market -- that left to its own devices, somehow knows whats best for a place ... Worsjippers of either share a deep, Puritan distrust of man, taking on faith that humans tinkering with the natural or economic order can only pervert it."

"The old idea might have told us how to worship nature, but it didn't tell us how to live with her. It told us more than we needed to know about virginity and rape, and almost nothing about marriage."

"If nature is the one necessary source of instruction for a garden ethic,culture is the other. Civilization may be part of our problem with respect to nature, but there will be no solution without it. As Wendell Berry has pointed out, it is culture, and certainly not nature, that teaches us to observe and remember, to learn from our mistakes, to share our experiences, and perhaps most important of all, to restrain ourselves. Nature does not teach its creatures to control their appetites except by the harshest of lessons–epidemics, mass death, extinctions. Nothing would be more natural than for humankind to burden the environment to the extent that it was rendered unfit for human life. Nature in that event would not be the loser, nor would it disturb her laws in the least–operating as it has always done, natural selection would unceremoniously do us in. Should this fate be averted, it will only be because our culture–our laws and metaphors, our science and technology, our ongoing conversation about nature and man’s place in it–pointed us in the direction of a different future. Nature will not do this for us.”


Tracey argues that Biden is set: nomination is his to lose

" ... his rivals will have to challenge the Obama/Biden legacy in order to dispel Biden’s mystique. And that will be an exceptionally difficult line to walk; attacking Obama risks alienating a huge portion of the primary electorate who aren’t interested in rehashing the Libya intervention or the Affordable Care Act. They just want Trump out. And into that void steps trusty old Joe."

Halle extends the argument:

"Biden is not required to win a majority of delegates in order to receive the nomination. All that is necessary is to keep Sanders from winning a majority. This will lead to a brokered convention where a decision will be made by party insiders whose hatred for Sanders is a matter of record."

"Biden’s ally in this scenario is an unlikely one namely Elizabeth Warren. While few of her supporters recognize it, Warren has the potential to draw enough support away from Sanders in key progressive states denying Sanders the margin he will need for a first ballot victory. "

I think they both overestimate the Obama effect in favor of Biden. At this stage, my feeling is that Warren will bow out and endorse Sanders if she sees Biden taking it in a brokered election.

Unfortunately, I fear the Democratic powers that be would rather lose with Biden than win with Sanders.


Money makes the world go round: 175K USD + commitments to campaign for DNC + raise money for DNC to buy voter lists

Thats gonna go over real good in midwest. Those state parties still hate the DNC for the 2016 gig, got screwed outta money, was funnelled straight to Hilary.

"candidates will also be asked to record a short video in support of the DNC"

"candidates who use the voter file will continue raising money for the party even after they drop out of the race"

"Sanders ... has not yet agreed to the DNC conditions"


Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2019, 05:13:48 AM »
Both Antarctic melt and GIS melt will SLR antipodally and sea level drop locally. This is very well established, look at any of the mitrovica papers. Challenging that effect is battling against arithmetic, unless of course, one wishes to challenge theory of gravitation instead.


Re: CMIP6 coming in hot

Early days yet and all that, but one thing to keep in mind is that ECS is not derived, as I naively imagined, for letting the model run to equilibrium. Rather, i am informed by a modeller that an approximation is used

doi: 10.1029/2003GL018747

open access, read all about it, extrapolates the results to zero TOA flux. I can think of several ways this can go wrong with slowish climate feedbacks, no doubt there are others.

And then there's the clouds. And the aerosols. And ...

But most important, the real climate never finds the most likely trajectory, just a likely one. And if you dont correctly model the continually evolving landscape that guides all trajectories, you can wind up quite far away from what actually happens.

So, perhaps best to look at nearer future, things like TCR. I see that TCR is also coming in hotter in the models i have looked at, but not quite so much.


Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: April 30, 2019, 10:21:14 PM »
Lock em up til they die: no trials for the tortured

" the DOD is preparing its 40 remaining forever prisoners at the extralegal detention center of Guantanamo Bay for nursing home and hospice care "

"these final prisoners are never being released ...  DOD is simply planning to keep these folks under lock and key forever. The reason why is more than a little unsettling: most were tortured into confessions that can’t be used in a jury trial"

"almost no one cares."

"a great author – Dostoyevsky – once wrote, presciently, that "The degree of civilization in a society can be judged by entering its prisons." Well, if that’s true than God help the collective American soul."

"Don’t look for any courage on Capitol Hill, you’ll be searching indefinitely."

"locking foreigners up and throwing away the key makes perfect sense because, after all, we now live in the United States of Incarceration. "

"The Russians took a bit longer, and also worked many Nazi soldiers to death, but even they, after some ten years, released the survivors."

"the evidence demonstrates that yes, apparently, this is who Americans want to be"

Read and weep:


Re: Weddel-Ross-Amundsen connector

The reference is Vaughan et al. (2011)

doi: 10.1029/2011GC003688

"four candidate seaways across WAIS, none of which connect the Weddell and Ross seas without passing through the Amundsen Sea embayment ice sheet. This establishes the Amundsen Sea embayment ice sheet, not only as the center of current Antarctic ice loss, but one of key importance in understanding deglaciation during recent interglacial periods."

"The methods currently at our disposal do not allow us to constrain, with confidence, which recent interglacial saw the last open West Antarctic seaways. However, given that during the last interglacial (MIS 5e), air temperature in Antarctica was substantially warmer than present for several thousand years [Sime et al., 2009] and at the same time, ice‐loss from Antarctica almost certainly contributed to higher global sea levels [Kopp et al., 2009], it would appear that MIS 5e is a strong candidate."

So, probably open in the Eemian.


MICI begins when

a) surface temperatures rise to freezing and above, hydrofracture is a big effect and will destabilize cliffs below 100m above sea level. This was Mercer warning back in 1968 and 78.

b) but even without surface melt cliffs of 100m and above are unstable to MICI. That is the Bassis warning.

The questions are : when do we see surface melt ? when does ocean melt and ice shelf disintegration expose 100m ice cliff ?

either will do.


Robinson at current affairs savages Buttigieg: Pete Buttigieg is all about Pete Buttigieg.

"When asked why he wants to hold an office, he talks much more about who he is than what he will do."

"He’s from the Rust Belt so he’s authentic, but he went to Harvard so he’s not a rube, but he’s from a small city so he’s relatable, but he’s gay so he’s got coastal appeal, but he’s a veteran so his sexuality won’t alienate rural people. This is literally the level of political thinking that is involved in the hype around Buttigieg."

"A labor organizer friend of mine has a test he uses for politicians: When they talk, is it all about themselves, or all about the causes they care about? Do they talk incessantly about their Journey and their Homespun Values, or do they talk about people’s needs, the power structure, and how to build a more just world? "

"I actually understand the appeal ... He can say all the words you want to hear ...But the question is always: What do you actually mean by this stuff? ... If a statement can mean many things to many people, what are you sticking up for? What can we expect of you? You can always achieve unity through vapidity, but you can’t achieve anything else."

" it seems as if Buttigieg’s values are the word “values.” "


Re: "Could it be the electrical energy consumption in parts of the world has dramatically shifted towards China and India and is it having a magnetic effect? "

No. Remember,return currents are equal to injected current, traverse the same path in reverse and cancel in magnetic field. So at best a dipole effect that falls off as 1/r^3 and is tiny to begin with.

Look elsewhere.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: April 18, 2019, 06:29:53 AM »
The Donald calls Carter: China blues

"Carter told a church congregation this weekend that he had spoken with President Donald Trump about China on Saturday, and said the commander in chief was worried that Beijing had outpaced its global rivals."

"Carter said he did not “really fear that time, but it bothers President Trump and I don’t know why." "

"Carter—who normalized diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing in 1979—suggested that China’s breakneck growth had been facilitated by sensible investment and buoyed by peace."

" “Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody?” Carter asked. “None. And we have stayed at war.” The U.S., he noted, has only enjoyed 16 years of peace in its 242-year history, making the country “the most warlike nation in the history of the world,” Carter said. This is, he said, because of America’s tendency to force other nations to “adopt our American principles.” "

"In China, meanwhile, the economic benefits of peace were clear to the eye. “How many miles of high-speed railroad do we have in this country?” he asked. "

“I wasn’t comparing my country adversely to China. I was just pointing that out because I happened to get a phone call last night.”


Carter: the best ex president the USA ever had.

Bonus link from America's Finest News Source:  oldie but a goodie

"You better get down on your hands and knees and kiss Jimmy Carter's rosy-red Georgia-peach-picking ass and beg me to run your fucking country again"

"But who comes to me, huh? Fucking nobody. Why ask old Jimmy anything? What the fuck could he know about peace in the Middle East? It's not like he fucking won the Nobel Peace Prize for that shit. "


"Oh, what's that I hear? The weather's all screwy? You got a global warming problem? Boo-fucking-hoo! I was telling you morons to turn off your lights and unplug all your shit at night to conserve energy in 19-fuckin'-75, for chrissake. "

"You had your chance with Jimmy Carter, and you fucking blew it. "


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: April 14, 2019, 10:47:07 PM »
Re: 60 trillion

32 trillion USD that we know of is held in offshore accounts, looted from taxing authorities worldwide.

Of which 12 trillion from poor countries.

1.57 USD /yr trillion spend on arms.

There's your money right there.


Democrats pledge not to take corp money; take it anyway.

"have found a broad loophole"

Nothing to see here. These are not corporate dollars. Go about you business, citizen.


Policy and solutions / Re: Concentrated Wealth and Carbon Emissions
« on: April 12, 2019, 02:42:50 AM »
Oxfam 2015:

"The poorest half of the global population – around 3.5 billion people – are responsible for only around 10% of total global emissions attributed to individual consumption"

"Around 50% of these emissions meanwhile can be attributed to the richest 10% of people around the world, who have average carbon footprints 11 times as high as the poorest half of the population, and 60 times as high as the poorest 10%."

"the poorest people who are both the least responsible for and the most vulnerable to climate change"

"The only beneficiaries of inadequate climate action in Paris and beyond are a much smaller elite with vested interests in the continuation of a high carbon and deeply unequal global economy."

i attach figs 1 and 4


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: April 02, 2019, 08:52:38 PM »
Simon interviews Hudson on the origins of debt slavery and jubilee:

Simon: " the Greeks and the Romans learned about interest-bearing debt from their contacts with Middle Eastern civilizations, but tragically failed to institute programs of Clean Slate debt amnesty. Their failure has been a kind of albatross around the neck of Western economies ever since."

Hudson: " Liberty for them was the liberty to destroy that of the population at large. Instead of cancelling debts and restoring land tenure to the population, the oligarchy created the Senate that protected the right of creditors to enslave labor and seize public as well as private lands (just as had occurred in Athens before Solon). Instead of restoring a status quo ante of free cultivators — free of debt and tax obligations, as Sumerian amargi and Babylonian misharumand andurarum meant — the Roman oligarchy accused anyone of supporting debtor rights and opposing its land grabs of “seeking kingship.” Such men were murdered, century after century."

Hudson: "Rome was turned into an oligarchy, an autocracy of the senatorial families. Their “liberty” was an early example of Orwellian Doublethink. It was to destroy everybody else’s liberty so they could grab whatever they could, enslave the debtors and create the polarized society that Rome became."

Hudson: "Once there were no more kingdoms for Rome to destroy, it collapsed from within. It was basically a looting economy. And it didn’t do more than the British colonialists did: It only scratched the surface. It didn’t put in place the means of production that would create enough money for them to grow productively. Essentially, Rome was a financial rentier state."

Hudson: " debt cancellations were not a diffusionist policy from the East, but a spontaneous pragmatic response such as was being widely advocated as far west as Rome"

Hudson: "We see a balance of forces in the ancient Near East, thanks to the fact that its rulers had authority to cancel debt and restore land that wealthy individuals had taken from smallholders. These kings were powerful enough to prevent the rise of oligarchies that would reduce the population to debt peonage and bondage (and in the process, deprive the palace of revenue and corvée labor, and even the military service of debtors owing their labor to their private creditors). We don’t have any similar protection in today’s Western Civilization. That’s what separates Western Civilization from the earlier Near Eastern stage. Modern financialized civilization has stripped away the power to prevent a land-grabbing creditor oligarchy from controlling society and its laws."

Hudson: "What they call a “free market” is an unmixed monolithic, centrally planned financialized economy with freedom for the oligarchy to impoverish the rest of society. That was achieved by landlordism monopolizing the land in feudal Europe, and it is done by finance today."

I shall have to read Hudson's book. This interview is at


Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: April 02, 2019, 06:38:18 AM »
My last link contained a Johnny Cash video. Here are the lyrics:

How high's the water, mama?
Two feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Two feet high and risin'

We can make it to the road in a homemade boat
That's the only thing we got left that'll float
It's already over all the wheat and the oats,
Two feet high and risin'

How high's the water, mama?
Three feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Three feet high and risin'

Well, the hives are gone,
I've lost my bees
The chickens are sleepin'
In the willow trees
Cow's in water up past her knees,
Three feet high and risin'

How high's the water, mama?
Four feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Four feet high and risin'

Hey, come look through the window pane,
The bus is comin', gonna take us to the train
Looks like we'll be blessed with a little more rain,
4 feet high and risin'

How high's the water, mama?
Five feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Five feet high and risin'

Well, the rails are washed out north of town
We gotta head for higher ground
We can't come back till the water comes down,
Five feet high and risin'

Well, it's five feet high and risin'


please could someone correct the misspelling in the title ?


The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: March 24, 2019, 09:26:49 PM »
Cohen at counterpunch: democrats running on obama era policies will lose

"We need to remember the vacillation – and worse, the opportunism and corporatism. As well as cause and effect: that Obama’s tenure paved the way for the rise of Trump."

He refers to an article by Stoller in 2017 at wapo:

" the past eight years of policymaking have damaged Democrats at all levels. Recovering Democratic strength will require the party’s leaders to come to terms with what it has become — and the role Obama played in bringing it to this point."

"The resulting policy framework of Tim Geithner’s Treasury Department was, in effect, a wholesale attack on the American home (the main store of middle-class wealth) in favor of concentrated financial power. The second was the administration’s pro-monopoly policies, which crushed the rural areas that in 2016 lost voter turnout and swung to Donald Trump."

" Obama prioritized creditor rights, placing most of the burden on borrowers. This kept big banks functional and ensured that financiers would maintain their positions in the recovery. "

“We can either have a rational resolution to the foreclosure crisis, or we can preserve the capital structure of the banks. We can’t do both.”

" Obama’s administration let big-bank executives off the hook for their roles in the crisis. "

"Obama enabled and encouraged roughly 9 million foreclosures. This was Geithner’s explicit policy at Treasury. "

"When Democratic leaders don’t protect the people, the people get poorer, they get angry, and more of them die."

"Though 58 percent of Americans were in favor of government action to halt foreclosures, Obama’s administration balked. And voters noticed."

" the reality is that the Democratic Party has been slipping away from the working class for some time, and Obama’s presidency hastened rather than reversed that departure."

Stoller's article is at:

Cohen continues:

"Like Emanuel, Obama’s next two chiefs of staff also came out of big finance: William Daley from JP Morgan Chase and Jacob Lew from Citigroup."

"Yes, Obama faced intense Republican obstruction in Congress. But it wasn’t Mitch McConnell who stacked the Obama administration with corporatist appointees and policies."

"The last two Democratic presidents gave “hope” a bad name."

"To win back these voters – and to inspire voters of color and youth – will require a Democratic nominee who is a forward-looking, progressive populist."

"While it’s true that “any Democrat is better than Trump,” reverting back to the Obama era is a return to a status quo that stopped working for millions of voters long ago."

Read the whole thing:


The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: March 24, 2019, 12:48:57 AM »
Johnstone in no mood to take prisoners:  Never stop mocking them

"We must never let mainstream Democrats forget how crazy they got, how much time and energy they wasted, how very, very wrong they were and how very, very right we were."

I'm not so sure. This is almost like the hate levelled toward Trump voters from some democrats. Neither side, in my experience, is totally crazy. Sure, they're all crazy about some things, but then, hell, so am I.

At the end of the day, in my neck of the woods, regardless of my neighbours' views on politics or religion or race or war or much else, we still help each other out. We raise each other's barns, fix each other's tractors, attend each other's christenings and weddings and festivals and funerals. We comfort each other in grief and we share in joy.

Sure they're all nuts, but about different things. And none are irredeemably evil and none irredeemably lost.


Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 22, 2019, 05:12:07 AM »
"If this pattern persists, it may signal a larger problem,"

No shit. Guess what, Sherlock, it's gonna not only persist, but get worse.

Now as to :

"The flooding surrounded fuel tanks at Offutt Air Force Base and tipped over one, which military officials said was empty and had been decommissioned"

These people lie and lie and lie. I deal with those large oil tanks. Even when empty there is sludge in the bottom, toxic, the worst stuff settles out during operation. Thats why its impossible to sell a fuel oil tank until you clean out the sludge, and doing that is usually worth more than the tank at end of life. Now that tank in the picture on its side looks about 5-10Kgallon, i guarantee there was 500-1000 gallon of sludge in the bottom. When that thing floats up and tips over it ripped all the plumbing out, and probably popped a weld or two when it tipped. All that sludge is in the Missouri.

Now take a look at the walls around the tanks. Thats the spill containment. When you put a big tank in you got to build a retaining wall round it, enuf to retain spill of all tank contents. Now you can see that the two tanks  still standing also have spill containment full of water.

Now the inside of those spill containments at large facilities are pretty gross places. Place like Offut, been goin for decades, that floor of that spill containment had decades of contaminant from millions of little spills over the long years. All that is in the river.

My tax dollars at play.


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 22, 2019, 04:54:24 AM »
"Japan is Australia’s largest export customer for thermal coal. Of the proposed pipeline of coal power projects in Japan in 2015, figures from the Global Coal Plant tracker show three-quarters are now unlikely to proceed."

Yeehaa. Adnani going downnnn.


The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: March 15, 2019, 07:50:44 AM »
I have noticed that links posted now include a bit that goes "?fbclid=" followed by a long string. That string is a facebook tracker.

for example:

the link allows facebook (and probably the rest of NSAgoofacetwit) knows exactly where the poster saw that link. So now they know also that anyone who clicks that link saw that particular post. Und so weiter.

Please strip goofacetwit trackers off the end of your links. Just that link without everything after and including the "?fbclid=" works fine. For now.

So a perfectly good link is

without the facebook tracker.

But of course i notice that the link target also has a facebook tracker. So if you clicked on the link with the "?fbclid=" bit included,  then facebook knows which link you saw, and who posted it. Your browser probably sends the referrer tag, so they know you saw it on nevens arctic forum.

if you stripped out  the tracker and cut and pasted the rest into an anonymous browser window, then they get your IP and browser fingerprint. (They got those in both previous cases also)

(I notice that reuters and a couple other sites now make unstrippable tags like that, so one needs cleverer defense.)

I am probably boring people, so i will stop.


Re: "weeks or months" for collapse of bentley trench

I think that is impossible under current conditions. First, as Mercer pointed out, oh, so many decades ago, you need the 0C isotherm to migrate into the bentley trench, and then remain there for large fraction of summer. Then you might have substantial surface melt and hydrofracture enuf to meet up with basal crevasses. And then you might have icecube collapse in a few decades.

But the ice wont stay in place. Long b4 that glacier flow rate will skyrocket due to glen's law exponent dependence on temperature and we shall have iceberg armadas in southern ocean thru calving.

So watch the grounding lines rather than surface melt for now. When the westerlies around antarctica start breaking down enuf to allow 0C isotherm incursion deep into heart of WAIS, then you might see Peacock's apocalypse stretched out over a decade or three.  But that will b after a lot of other apocalypse.

From a physics point of view, the problem is  moving enuf heat into the ice sheet fast enuf to cause icecube collapse; fast enuf to surpass and overcome ice export thru flow rate increase due to glen's law exponent increase. I really see no way to do that except rain. CDW incursion really doesn't get into the bulk of the ice, its a basal and frontal thing. And we wont get rain until westerlies break down massively and Mercer's 0C isotherm acts up.

Blanchon(2009) has some interesting graphs which i have posted b4 about rates of SLR. Worst case seems to be a meter evry 20 yrs continuing for 500 yr.




Re: Radko

After thinking about it some more, I wonder if the instability against layering manifests in the Southerm Hemisphere ? CDW and neighbours are quite different from AMOC but the analysis seems quite general. I shall have to reread Dutrieux and others, in particular Hellmer on warm/cold cavities under ice shelves, in this light. The ocean transects by the current Thwaites effort should illuminate.


Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: March 01, 2019, 01:13:34 AM »
Barker at n+1 on Volcker and the great bloodletting:

"In Akron, the commercial blood bank reduced the prices it would pay by 20 percent due to the glut of laid-off tireworkers lining up to bleed."

"a price index doesn’t have a spine or a seam; the broken bodies and rent garments of the early 1980s belonged to people. Reagan economic adviser Michael Mussa was nearer the truth when he said that “to establish its credibility, the Federal Reserve had to demonstrate its willingness to spill blood, lots of blood, other people’s blood.”  "

" This was the practical embodiment of Milton Friedman’s idea that there was a natural rate of unemployment, and attempts to go below it would always cause inflation ... there need to be millions of unemployed workers for the economy to work as it should."

" Events like these helped deliver the coup de grâce to the ambitious third world politics of the 1970s, exemplified by the call for a New International Economic Order "

“Volcker was selected because he was the candidate of Wall Street. This was their price, in effect.”

"Volcker says “the most important single action of the [Reagan] administration in helping the anti-inflation fight” was defeating the air traffic controllers’ (PATCO) strike in 1981, when Reagan fired and permanently replaced ten thousand government workers and arrested their leaders. The show of force had “a psychological effect on the strength of the union bargaining position on other issues—whatever the issues were.” He was right: in 1979, twenty-one million Americans belonged to a union; in 2003, despite substantial growth in the workforce, the number was down to just under sixteen million. After the crushing of PATCO, those unions became less restive ..."

 “The result [of the Volcker regime] was to transfer inflation from the nonfinancial to the financial economy ..."

"Obsession with central bank independence has roots, like most things in America, in the class war. To raise interest rates in response to low unemployment rates, even when inflation is low, is to make sure that the ratio of surplus going to workers does not change. That the vigilant central bank, whatever else it may be, is an instrument of class rule should not surprise anyone ..."

" The best way to discover what was possible in the 1970s would be to test the limits of what is possible today. "

Read the whole thing:


Re: Radko

I have read the paper more carefully and it does have this to say about diffusive heat transport and sea ice melt:

" Turner (2010) concludes that diffusive convection has contributed significantly to the observed increase in sea ice melting during the past few decades. Polyakov et al. (2017) reinforce this suggestion by demonstrating that the impact of the diffusive heat transport from AW on the sea ice loss in the Eurasian Basin is now comparable to, or possibly exceeds, the level attributed to atmospheric forcing. The staircase region today is about 100 m shallower, and layer thicknesses have doubled in comparison to measurements taken in 1985 (Padman & Dillon, 1987; Timmermans et al., 2008). The systematic increase in mean layer thickness, in turn, implies the systematic amplification of diffusive heat transport. Remarkably, despite the undeniable significance of thermohaline staircases for high‐latitude ocean dynamics, the physical mechanism of their formation has not been fully explained after more than half a century of observation.

Another diffusively generated phenomenon that is widespread in polar oceans is thermohaline interleaving (e.g., Rudels et al., 2009). Interleaving is characterized by lateral intrusive flows that mix adjacent water masses with different T‐S properties (Ruddick & Kerr, 2003; Ruddick & Richards, 2003). Fully developed intrusions are readily recognized in temperature and salinity profiles by alternating patterns of positive and negative vertical T‐S gradients. In the Arctic, intrusions spread relatively warm and salty AW from boundary currents at the basin periphery into fresher and colder interior regions. They can reach extraordinary large scales of up to a hundred meters in height and remain laterally coherent over hundreds of kilometers (e.g., Carmack et al., 1999; Merryfield, 2002)."


Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 24, 2019, 11:48:27 PM »
Worms going away:  "rare or absent in two out of five fields" in the UK

I see the same in the midwest. Decades of corn-soy rotations and fertilizer and herbicide and pesticide has left the soil lifeless.


Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: February 23, 2019, 08:06:10 AM »
The Kafka continues:

Apparently, torture disclosure for propaganda is fine.
But such disclosure to defense lawyers for the tortured ?
No way. 

"The lawyers discovered that in the CIA’s year-long cooperation with the film-makers, the agency shared details of Baluchi’s torture at a secret prison, or black site, which they had been told were too secret to be divulged."

"The trial has yet to begin, despite the fact that Baluchi and his four other co-accused in the 9/11 case have been in Guantánamo for 13 years and were first charged in 2008. "

"In the pre-trial hearings, which have been underway for nearly seven years, the defence teams have been repeatedly denied access to witnesses and documentation that might cast light on their clients’ captivity prior to arriving in Guantánamo."

"“Although we have received no orders to do so, we are currently prepared to take in up to an additional 40 detainees with no additional staffing requirements.

“With minimal adjustments to current infrastructure and manpower we could take up to 200 detainees total,” he said. "

I got an idea. If they wanna throw more people in there, how about Bush the lesser, Cheney, Tenet, Rice Addington, Yoo, Bybee ... dump em all in Guantanamo. Did they say they had room for 200 ? Toss in some bankers, too.

Thanks for the link to Purkey, i always read her. I note that Johnson is on this one too, and some of the usual suspects. Pity ARGO don't go that deep. Yet.

I hope she's doing one on the whole southern hemisphere, rather than just the Pacific.

"Here, we have shown that the AABW throughout the South Pacific has warmed, with
a possible slight acceleration in the most recent decade. The warming is accompanied by a
clear bottom-intensified freshening, strongest in the Ross Sea and Amundsen-Bellingshausen
Basin, but with early signs of the arrival of a fresher variety of AABW to the Southwest
Pacific Basin seen in the 2016/17 occupations of P15 and P06. The warming for P > 4000 m
is equivalent to an accumulation of energy at a rate of 3.5 (±0.1) MW in the deep ocean and
drives a local SLR of 0.14 (±0.04) mm yr -1 from thermal expansion, making it an important
contributor to ocean heat uptake and SLR."

That bit about recent freshening in the southwest pacific might be linked to Totten and neighbours.

I attach fig 5, note that the Amundsen-Bellinghausen is the only one cooling at depths above 3000dbar( roughly the same as meters)


Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 19, 2019, 08:53:50 AM »
Bergman at guardian on florida real estate: money, money, money

"Miami streets will flood every year by 2070."

" luxury condominiums going up in flood-prone South Beach, and property values rising in the vulnerable Keys, post-Hurricane Irma ... a culture of “systemic, fraudulent nondisclosure” "

"low-income neighborhoods like Little Haiti are rising in value and under pressure from developers because of their higher ground ... raising the rents, forcing renters onto month-to-month leases ... "

“I’m worried we’re one bad storm away from a rush for the exits,”

 “great fishing”

" a significant percentage of at-risk properties are owned by people of color."


The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: February 15, 2019, 06:27:44 AM »
America's Finest News Source: Everybody was doin the Abrams shuffle

"Elliott Abrams defended Wednesday the war crimes he committed in Latin America by pointing out that it was just something everyone was doing ... "

"You’d find a military force friendly to American business interests, get them to slaughter anyone who wasn’t, and then dismiss the victims as communist guerillas. "

" Hell, I knew people who would make fun of you if you hadn’t committed a war crime or two."

Plus ca change ...


The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: February 11, 2019, 09:41:13 AM »
Scheer Intelligence has a very goot interview with Ron Kovic and Danny Sjursen. Ron Kovic is the man who is depicted in the Oliver Stone film "Born on the Fourth of July."

Sjursen: " And I would submit that between Vietnam and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, in one sense we, the collective we, this society has learned very little, and made some of the same mistakes. But then in another sense, the foreign policy elites have learned something rather profound. "

"the foreign policy elite, the militarists who run this government, learned a different lesson. And the lesson they learned is that if you conscript people, if you draft people, if you bring the American people along into a war, then there might be protests. There might be people who turn against that war when the time comes. But if you send a small group of volunteers over, and over, and over again, even to fruitless wars that are not in our national security interests—like Iraq, like Afghanistan, like Syria—you can maintain a war endlessly. "

"I went to Iraq first and then Afghanistan—really shattered those illusions that America was a humanitarian force for good. Instead, in Iraq, I saw us shatter a society that went into a civil war, in addition to attacking us. And watched how we had just completely destroyed that country through our ill-advised invasion. And then in Afghanistan, I found an unwinnable war that was probably more similar to Vietnam than the Iraq War was, in the sense that it turned out that all the Afghans were not Americans secretly waiting to jump out of their skins. They didn’t want the American version of government, and they did not see us as legitimate. "

"What I really saw was the results of American messianism in the world, of American exceptionalism, the notion that we could remake societies in our own image. What it really meant was a whole lot of dead children, a whole lot of car bombs, a whole lot of teenagers shooting each other in the night. And then of course, a whole lot of Americans getting killed as well, although less of us than the Iraqis. When I went to Afghanistan three years later, I no longer had any faith in the wars; I was just a professional. "

"what I found there was slightly different from Iraq. It wasn’t so much a civil war as it was a mass insurgency that we were never going to break. And it turns out, we only held the ground we stood on, which probably sounds very familiar to Mr. Kovic. "

Kovic: " I and other veterans who opposed that war [Vietnam] during that time, in the late sixties and early seventies, we knew that every day was important in trying to save lives. We were here back at home, we had come back from the war, but we knew how important it was that we protest that war, do everything possible to speak out until our voices were raw, against that war. And I remember, you know, sitting behind bars; I hated it, I didn’t like—I was already in a wheelchair for the rest of my life, and here I was inside of a jail cell. It wasn’t fun. But all I could think of was, whatever it takes, you know, to stop this war. I had been inspired while in the hospital by Martin Luther King and others. And I knew that that war that I had fought in and sacrificed in was wrong, and we had to do everything possible, and it was hurting my country deeply as well."

Sjursen: " When I was put in front of those cadets and asked to teach American history in the normal patriotic lens, I couldn’t do it. And I think that was the breaking point. And at that point, I decided to do what Ron Kovic decided to do, which is to speak out every day to try to minimize the number of Americans that die in these wars. And that’s where I’m at now, and I wish it would have happened sooner for me, but I can’t go back and change that. All I can do now is bring a new version of patriotism, and that is dissent against meaningless, harmful wars."

The whole article is very, very worth reading:


Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 07, 2019, 08:15:57 AM »
Consequences of cold snap in midwest: different take

One measurement of severity? no, that's not the word ... cold ? no ... that's not it .... freeze ? no ... hard freeze ? getting closer ...

    22% in Minnesota
    12% in Wisconsin
    9% in Illinois and Indiana
    7% in Iowa
    6% in Ohio, North Dakota, and Nebraska
    2% in South Dakota and Missouri

The only state that didn't see a jump was Michigan, ...

those Michigan folk are weird.

Nyhoo, the words after Michigan are "where porn viewing was DOWN 2%."


Did I say this was a walk in the park ? Not any more, now we got an emergency:


Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: January 30, 2019, 11:12:30 PM »
Big hole under Thwaites: melt rate much higher than models find

Apparently CDW induced melt is much faster in cavities when bed slope is prograde than retrograde.

"The newly formed cavity at B is thin, however, which does not favor warm CDW intrusion from geostrophic flow and efficient vertical mixing (19, 24) and explains the low ice shelf melt rates. In contrast, the prograde bed at A favors an efficient opening of a new ice shelf cavity, stronger CDW intrusion, and efficient mixing, with melt rates 20 times higher than those at B. "

"Ice shelf melt at A exceeds values used in numerical ice sheet/ocean models by factors of 2 to 3"

open access, read the whole thing: DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3433


A citation for "Team Schmidt" stating anything about ice sheet collapse sans MICI would be nice ...? I find nothing in Dr. Schmidt's statements about this. IN fact, Bassis, Deconto and Pollard published after the deadline for the last IPCC report, so blaming IPCC for not including those results violates causality. If the next IPCC report ignores them, you might have a point. As for your suggestion that IPCC produce yearly reports, have you any idea what it takes to produce one of the AR reports ? Much longer than a year. If all scientists did was lit revieww and reports they would do nothing else.

Further, who is on "Team Schmidt" in the first place ?

I find characterizing people as members of "Teams" is unproductive.

As for my feeling about MICI : ofcourse it is happening, look at Jacobshawn. And I cannot say for sure, but Mercer's famous warning about the midsummer 0C isotherm applies not just to ice shelves, but to grounded ice also. But for now in Antarctica CDW incursion and bottom melt is far more important.



Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: January 23, 2019, 07:53:30 AM »
The difficulty is that if aerosols were twice as  effective at cooling than previously thought, then the models must have been wrong in the other direction on efficacy of warming agents in matching historical data ...


Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: January 22, 2019, 10:24:14 PM »
N. American glacier mass waste increases fourfold in ten years:

"We observe a fourfold increase in mass loss rates between 2000–2009 [ 2.9 ± 3.1 Gt yr 1 ] and 2009–2018 [ 12.3 ± 4.6 Gt yr 1 ]"

Thats a doubling period of about 9 yr.


"Our estimated rate of WNA mass change for the early period ( 2.9 ± 3.1 Gt/yr ) is considerably less negative than the rate ( 14 ± 3 Gt/yr) previously reported for the period 2003–2009 (Gardner et al., 2013)."

"Using available SMB measurements for 14 glaciers in WNA (supporting information S1), we calculate an average mass change of 874 ± 100 kg m^2/yr over the period 2000–2017. When multiplied by the total glacierized area of WNA, this value yields an annual mass loss of 13.6 ± 4.3 Gt/yr , close to the value (14 ± 3 Gt/yr ) calculated by Gardner et al. (2013) using a similar approach. These values are twice as large as those based on our trend analysis. This discrepancy suggests that glaciers chosen for long-term monitoring programs are losing mass more rapidly than the region as a whole."

Open access, read all about it: Menunos et al doi:10.1029/2018GL080942  . Pelto is an author as might be suspected.


The Bevis paper is interesting. They use GIA as well as a bunch of other observations to estimate GIS mass waste. One  takeaway is that in the twentieth century, atmosphere had not warmed enuf for NAO variation to induce mass waste events thru increased SMB. But this century it is.

"Since 2000, the NAO has worked in concert with global warming to trigger major increases in summertime runoff. Before 2000, the air was too cool for the NAO to do the same. In a decade or two, global warming will be able to drive 2012 levels of runoff with little or no assistance from the NAO. In the shorter term, we can infer that the next time NAO turns strongly negative, SMB will trend strongly negative over west and especially southwest Greenland ..."

They also point out several interesting things. The pause after 2012 was due to NAO :

"Van Angelen et al. (13) concluded that if the sNAO switched back to positive values after 2012, then surface mass balance (SMB) might partially recover. Indeed, not only did the June to August (JJA) and June to September (JJAS) NAO indices turn positive in 2013, but the change in each of these sNAO indices from 2012 to 2013 was the single biggest interannual change recorded since 1950 (Fig. 1 F and G and SI Appendix, Fig. S7). Furthermore, when the sNAO index again turned strongly negative in 2015, significant ice loss was reestablished (Fig. 1 B and E), and the Pause had ended."

Another point they make is that glacier discharge is governed by shallow marine warmth:

"future warming of the shallow ocean is expected to have its largest impact, via DMB (33, 34), in southeast and northwest Greenland"

But the last is not the focus of the paper.

Open access, read all about it:

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1806562116


That Wolf paper has very little to do with present day earth, it has to do with mostly hypothetical climates, and hot ones at that. They use present day continents, fainter and brighter suns and they vary CO2 levels.


1) permanent land glaciers over Antarctica and Greenland have been replaced with bare soil

2) thermodynamic slab ocean model of 50‐m depth

3) We assume a 1‐bar N2 background ... we have ignored the formation of stratospheric ozone and the presence of oxygen in the atmosphere.

I attach Fig 1 and 6

To the question of a cloud albedo transitions:

"Similarly, here we find that the global mean cloud albedo varies in proportion with the solar insolation at all values of Ts (Figure 6b), and across a range of insolations. Under all solar constants cloud feedbacks have a destabilizing effect on climate for 280 ≤ Ts ≤ 330 K. That is, warming climate leads to reductions in the cloud albedo, thus constituting a positive climate feedback and leading to further warming. The sharp transition between temperate and moist greenhouse climate states centered at Ts ~320 K is associated with the minima in cloud albedo (Figure 6b), and is caused by the convective stabilization of warm atmospheres and subsequent dissipation of low‐lying clouds as reported in Wolf and Toon (2015)."

I dont really believe the accuracy of their cloud model. First off, their grid is 4x5 degrees in a modified CESM model, so they rely on parametrization for cloud effects. Their ocean is laughably simple. They have no biology. But as Box said, "all models are wrong but some are useful" This one is not very useful to me, i prefer Hansen and the Russel model he uses for simple, quick looks at the rape of things to come.

But, as always, thats just me, your mileage may vary

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: January 18, 2019, 10:06:09 AM »
I think those ponds have formed in years past, they are meltwater possibly from foehn winds.

Amery is one i watch closely. The thing is a dagger pointed into the heart of Antarctica. The danger is in the bed. The ice behind it has concave profile in elevation view as i have posted before, which has significance.,263.msg40975.html#msg40975

Amery disturbs me. When that shelf breaks up ...


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