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Messages - Archimid

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 17, 2019, 07:56:30 AM »
OK, here is my crappy graph- many thanks to Oren for explaining how to attach it...Advance apologies that the April dates appear as negative May dates....Nonetheless, the trend is clear, breakup is a week earlier than a century ago. Something similar is evident regarding freeze up too, but freeze up is way more complex because it is affected by river height, which drops during fall.

Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: April 16, 2019, 10:09:31 AM »
From Australia BOM
Still have the setting on El Nino Alert

Southern Oscillation Index
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has eased back to more neutral levels over the past fortnight. The SOI for the 30 days ending 14 April was −2.0, with the 90-day average −5.8.

As the northern Australian wet season nears it end, the SOI will become less volatile, and will be expected to better reflect the climatic conditions. During the wet season, the passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti can affect atmospheric pressure at these locations, meaning that SOI values during the northern Australian wet season can be erratic, and should therefore be viewed with caution.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 12, 2019, 12:20:56 PM »
the Union constrained workforce

Are you living in the 70s still?

Me? No.  I'm living in the 21st century where people take reality and call it BS then take rocket propelled idiocy and call it "Reality", then defend that reality to the death.....

Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: April 03, 2019, 01:19:03 AM »
BAM! Two years have gone by without an update.

I finally have the processsing power and coding skills to take the AWP model to where I intended it to be. Instead of only calculating the anomaly of potentially absorbed solar radiation. I now calculate the raw accumulated values, the anomaly and a percentage of the current year to the maximum possible (complete Ice-free conditions). From the 1980s to 2010s this percentage has gone up from roughly 52% to 62%. Generally from August onwards the Arctic is 75% icefree and from September onwards the Arctic is 90% icefree.

Everything is now much better presented with interactive graphs and sliders to compare individual years. The regional data is already calculated, but needs even more work for proper presentation. Near-real time data for 2019 is in the works too.

Fancy new webpage:

Still too short documentation of AWP model:

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 29, 2019, 11:35:04 AM »
I think now there's enough data to calculate the average maximum date. Using 15-day averages should take the weather effects out and 29-days should eliminate the possible effect of moon phases aka tides.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 19, 2019, 08:47:42 PM »
We rightly condemn the senseless waste of life that 'haters' cause in their attacks and radicalisation of others and all that brings yet when thousands blink out because of a natural disaster we do not join together and pledge our solidarity against the folk who 'augmented' that disaster making it so deadly?

Maybe " you can't say AGW caused it!" is no defence as , in a warming world, every weather event has 'some' AGW in it. So how many in Africa died because of the AGW 'portion' of that Cyclone???

10%, 5%?

Both would return numbers bigger than the horror in Christchurch cost us yet the paid deniers that allowed us here,with little mitigation,just go about their days as if they have not a care in the world but us 'catastrophists'

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 15, 2019, 06:25:28 PM »
Please note that the arcticle linked below appears to quote from a GE press release about a new model of wind turbine, and thus may be a little too optimistic for some readers.  I'm posting it because the article illustrates the technology improvements that are currently happening in the wind energy industry and how they will allow the amount of wind power being deployed to continue to increase.

A year later, GE Renewable Energy announced the upgraded 5.3 MW version and the new “Cypress Platform” naming convention. The new Cypress turbines are designed to produce over 20 gigawatt-hours of power annually and offer a 50% increase in Annual Energy Production over their lifespan.

“We’re delighted with the progress our team has been able to make in bringing our innovative, high-tech turbine to market on an accelerated schedule,” said Jérôme Pécresse, CEO of GE Renewable Energy. “We are confident that Cypress, with its two-piece blade design, will be a game changer for the industry. We’re hearing equal enthusiasm from our customers across the globe, who tell us they appreciate the potential of Cypress to help them both lower the cost of onshore wind and gain added flexibility in siting turbines.”

The Cypress Platform of turbines are offered with multiple power ratings and varying hub heights, enabling a lower cost of electricity by matching each wind turbine to specific site needs. Designed with a “revolutionary” two-piece blade design which makes it possible to use larger rotors and site the turbines in a wider variety of locations, the Cypress turbines can thus be installed at locations that were previously inaccessible.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: March 12, 2019, 11:46:22 PM »
More from the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (2018):

It’s that time of year again when those who value unvarnished data, and analyses of global nuclear energy developments, free of industry spin, look forward to the latest annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR). The 2018 edition does not disappoint; it reveals fascinating new information and trends, and confirms that, as the world undergoes a fundamental and far-reaching energy transition, nuclear is being left behind.

I have worked in the energy sector for nearly 40 years and I have never seen as rapid innovation and change as in the last five. The relative prices of electricity generation sources have switched, and solar and wind energy are now, in most countries, the cheapest grid-connected sources of energy. And as storage prices plummet, off-grid power solutions are becoming more cost-competitive. The electricity system is becoming more decentralized, with a multitude of smaller, incremental investments by utilities, industries and households, which are becoming producers as well as consumers of power. Networks and mini-grids are increasingly radial, meshed and fractal, and as energy, transport and communications technologies converge, along with the internet of things, machine learning, demand-side management, and block-chain payment systems, energy services will be democratized and controlled to match optimally individual and community needs.

The nuclear industry seems puzzled by these developments and is mostly in denial. As the competitiveness of solar and wind energy become undeniable – renewable energy auctions are transparent with published long-term contracted prices – the nuclear industry shifts the debate away from the costs of nuclear to issues of system reliability and to its role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. In so doing, they discount the huge construction time and cost overruns in generation III and III+ nuclear reactors and the difficulties of financing nuclear, especially in emerging economies.

As solar and wind grow exponentially, nuclear energy has remained stagnant. There are fewer nuclear reactors in operation today than there were 30 years ago. Nuclear reactors have increased in size, so they produce more electricity, but still less than in 2001. The share of global electricity production decreased from a peak of 17.5 percent in 1996 to 10.3 percent in 2017. This is hardly a growth industry.

It is instructive to note that the construction of new nuclear power plants is mostly driven and backed by states, and not by the private sector. China accounts for a third of nuclear plants under construction. Nuclear is becoming an option for fewer countries, and only those that are prepared to offer significant government support, including sovereign guarantees. It is regrettable that often this support is facilitated by rent-seeking and corruption.

◦Five construction starts in the world in 2017, of which a demonstration fast reactor project in China.
◦No start of construction of any commercial reactors in China since December 2016.
◦The number of units under construction globally declined for the fifth year in a row, from 68 reactors at the end of 2013 to 50 by mid-2018, of which 16 are in China.
◦China spent a record US$126 billion on renewables in 2017.

◦As of mid-2018, 32 reactors—including 26 in Japan—are in Long-Term Outage (LTO).
◦At least 33 of the 50 units under construction are behind schedule, mostly by several years. China is no exception, at least half of 16 units under construction are delayed.
◦Of the 33 delayed construction projects, 15 have reported increased delays over the past year.
◦Only a quarter of the 16 units scheduled for startup in 2017 were actually connected to the grid.
◦New-build plans have been cancelled including in Jordan, Malaysia and the U.S. or postponed such as in Argentina, Indonesia, Kazakhstan.

Decommissioning Status Report
◦As of mid-2018, 115 units are undergoing decommissioning—70 percent of the 173 permanently shut-down reactors in the world.
◦Only 19 units have been fully decommissioned: 13 in the U.S., five in Germany, and one in Japan. Of these, only 10 have been returned to greenfield sites.

Renewables Accelerate Take-Over
◦Globally, wind power output grew by 17% in 2017, solar by 35%, nuclear by 1%. Non-hydro renewables generate over 3,000 TWh more power than a decade ago, while nuclear produces less.
◦Auctions resulted in record low prices for onshore wind (<US$20/MWh) offshore wind (<US$45/MWh) and solar (<US$25/MWh). This compares with the “strike price” for the Hinkley Point C Project in the U.K. (US$120/MWh).
◦Nine of the 31 nuclear countries—Brazil, China, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdom (U.K.)—generated more electricity in 2017 from non-hydro renewables than from nuclear power.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 09, 2019, 08:28:32 PM »
The loan is due in less than a year, lol. Build a factory from a mud field, bring in equipment, get an auto assembly line operating, make enough cars at enough margin to pay back half a billion, ALL IN LESS THAN A YEAR....

Credit.  Such a wonderful thing.
Amendment and Restatement of ABL Credit Agreement
On March 6, 2019, Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) and its subsidiary Tesla Motors Netherlands B.V. (together with Tesla, the “Borrowers”), entered into the Amendment and Restatement Agreement (the “Amendment and Restatement Agreement”) with Deutsche Bank AG New York Branch, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the lenders and other agents party thereto, pursuant to which the ABL Credit Agreement dated as of June 10, 2015 (as amended and restated, the “ABL Credit Agreement”) was amended and restated in its entirety. Among other things, the Amendment and Restatement Agreement amended the ABL Credit Agreement to increase the revolving commitments by $500.0 million to a total of $2.425 billion, to extend the maturity date from June 10, 2020 to July 1, 2023 as to approximately $2.228 billion of the total revolving commitments, to increase the letter of credit subfacility from $200.0 million to $400.0 million, and to amend certain covenants and baskets. As amended, the ABL Credit Agreement also permits the Borrowers, subject to the terms and conditions set forth therein, to obtain up to $200.0 million of additional revolving commitments and an extension of the remaining commitments maturing on June 10, 2020 to July 1, 2023.

These arrangements are yet another nail in the Tesla Bear coffin.  Financial institutions with millions and even billions of dollars at stake have done their due diligence, agree Tesla is set for success, and they are eager to be a part of it.  The bear argument simply does not fit reality.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 06, 2019, 01:12:57 PM »
Apologies if this is a repeat, but I hadn't noticed discussions about it and I do not read everyone's comments. 

NHTSA's Implausible Safety Claim for Tesla's Autosteer Driver Assistance System
Yes, it's been discussed. The NHTSA's claim was indeed unfounded.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 05, 2019, 07:21:38 PM »
I think Lurk and I actually have the same goals and would like to ultimately see all of the world's energy come from carbon free sources, and the sooner the better.  It seems he objects to my pollyana-ish language, so I'll try a different tone. :P

Yet another corporation is refusing to wait for the global systemic change requiring them to use carbon free energy sources and has instead installed a massive solar power plant.

You know who's one of the world's leaders in tackling greenhouse gas emissions? You might be surprised to know that the venerable corporation that brought us Mickey Mouse is staying ahead of the pack by following through on its pledge to cut emissions by 50 percent. Disney's goal is to reach half the emissions it had in 2012 by the year 2020.

One big way the entertainment juggernaut is making its commitment a reality is by opening an enormous new 270-acre, 50-megawatt solar facility in Florida. It went online in 2019 to provide clean renewable energy to the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando. As stated on Disney's blog, the facility will generate so much power, Disney will be able to use it to operate two of its four theme parks in Central Florida.

The new solar farm, consisting of more than half a million panels, will majorly reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, lowering them by more than 57,000 tons per year.

The article is silent on the economics on the deal and instead quotes a corporate spokesperson blathering about "being a responsible citizen of the world".

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 04, 2019, 08:51:46 PM »
The first large-scale solar farm in North Dakota is starting construction.

FARGO — North Dakota’s first commercial solar energy complex will start construction this spring in rural Cass County’s Harmony Township and go into operation in 2020.

The $250 million project will sprawl over 1,600 acres and have a capacity of up to 200 megawatts — generating enough electricity to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 240,000 metric tons, or the equivalent of taking 50,000 cars off the road every year.

Sono Motors have presented the final design of the Sion.


9417 Preorders and counting

As some of you are familiar, this is now a 10 year project that has been posted about probably no less that several hundred times. It is an ideal backup highway/road layout that is all one directional without the need for ANY bridges (the most expensive/least survivable aspect of our roads) NOR ANY stop signs, intersections, or red lights - Not a SINGLE ONE!
As a one way system free of the expense of bridges and at Autobaun speeds with the safety of all one directional travel we gain many advantages. We set up our communities to be BETWEEN the EAST and West bound directions (shown in the first photo as blue and red accordingly) so that we are never more than .6 miles from a three-lane highway on-ramp. All exits are at ground level much like when you come to a rest stop along/parallel to the main road. everything branches off from there as shown. Such a fast Point Blank (direct) system means that all emergency services (ambulance, transport, and police) are seconds away and so efficient we don't even need our own vehicles (which...since we work in industrial shops right on the bottom floors of our homes or a block away at most aren't needed for work travel anyway). The inner rectangle is likely all internal/interconnected and likely at least four stories tall with the eight circles representing eight octagonal 14-story apartment towers. Other living accommodations will be among this in smaller five and six story buildings so if larger groups aren't your thing (or it is more effective to separate drives and ground/road crews out into their own buildings etc.) there are options. This is much like a modern Castle and Bailey scenario that is entirely self sufficient with CNC machines in this one town numbering probably 100+.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 26, 2019, 10:02:53 PM »
And when the cost of building new renewables plus battery storage is cheaper than operating fossil fuel plants, you'll see those plants close.  We hit that point the USA last year too.

This is how coal dies — super cheap renewables plus battery storage

New Colorado wind farms with batteries are now cheaper than running old coal plants

Joe Romm Jan 10, 2018, 12:35 pm

Solar, wind, and battery prices are dropping so fast that, in Colorado, building new renewable power plus battery storage is now cheaper than running old coal plants. This increasingly renders existing coal plants obsolete.

Two weeks ago, Xcel Energy quietly reported dozens of shockingly low bids it had received for building new solar and wind farms, many with battery storage (see table below).

The median bid price in 2017 for wind plus battery storage was $21 per megawatt-hour, which is 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour. As Carbon Tracker noted, this “appears to be lower than the operating cost of all coal plants currently in Colorado.”

And the trend for coal worldwide is not looking good:

A new global analysis of 6,685 coal plants finds that it is now cheaper to build new renewable generation than to run 35 percent of coal plants worldwide. By 2030, that percentage increases dramatically, with renewables beating out 96 percent of today’s existing and planned coal-fired generation.

The 4 percent exception is in markets with extremely low fuel costs, where coal is cheap and plentiful, or with uncertain policies for renewables, like Russia.

The EIA is notorious for underestimating the growth of renewable energy.  The EIA reports are not reliable for estimates of future energy generation.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 25, 2019, 09:44:39 PM »
A new 1.5 GW solar power plant with battery storage is under construction:

The 5100-acre solar farm will be built in three 500 MW sections and connect to the 275 kV high voltage national distribution network in Queensland. There will be two substations and the proposed 500 MWh of battery storage will be added after the solar farm is completed. Total cost of the project is given as $3.5 billion.

The Sunshine Energy website claims the installation will produce about 2,600 GWh of electricity each year. The proximity to the Queensland high voltage utility grid was a key factor in deciding where to place the new solar farm, which will be capable of powering 300,000 homes in Queensland. Up to 1,000 construction jobs will be created and 30 to 60 full time positions will be needed to maintain and operate the facility once completed.

There are two larger ones (as noted upthread) in the planning phase:

The Sunshine Energy project will be the largest in Australia — for now. There are other larger projects waiting in the wings for regulatory approval — a 4 GW renewable energy hub in New South Wales and the 11 GW Asian Renewable Energy Hub that will export power to Southeast Asia via undersea transmission lines.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 19, 2019, 12:28:56 AM »
Not a fraud.  Not a scam.  Generated about $4.5 million in revenue for its owners during the fourth quarter by helping to balance the freaking power grid!

Tesla's big battery in Australia made another $4 million on its way to pay for itself
The government also participated in the funding and they shouldn’t be disappointed in their investment since a recent report showed that the project saved $40 million on the energy during its first year of operation alone.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 08, 2019, 02:23:56 AM »
S&S took their measurements at methane seeps during the summer and then estimated what the entire ESAS methane release would be annually.  Subsequent studies have shown that those estimates for the entire ESAS are too high.

I'm not denying anything.  I'm telling you what the peer-reviewed science says.  You're the one who's denying it.

And your only willing to look at one side of the picture. There is no consensus that the Arctic methane isn’t a threat. There are papers that conclude what your saying, and there are papers that conclude what I’m saying. My only worry is we all conclude it’s a not a problem or a problem for the grandchildren then we lose the opportunity to do something about it if it is a threat. There is no time for hope, or wishful thinking. We need to do something now. The very existence of our species is on the line.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 07, 2019, 01:46:40 AM »
I decided to post this reply here (and not go O/T from the global temp thread).

So far 2019 has set 35 records for heat and 2 for cold

Kulgera (Australia) max. 47
Griffith (Australia) max. 46.4
Albury (Australia) max. 45.3
Woolbrook (Australia) max. 38.7
Cooma (Australia) max. 39.5
Cootamundra (Australia) max. 43.6
Eucla (Australia) max. 48.6
Christmas Island Aero (Australia) max. 31.6
Tarcoola (Australia) max. 49.1
Ceduna (Australia) max. 48.6
Cleve (Australia) max. 46.7
Adelaide (Australia) max. 47.7
Adelaide Airport (Australia) max. 45.8
Port Lincoln Airport (Australia) max. 48.3
Port Augusta (Australia) max. 49.5
Clare (Australia) max. 44.9
Snowtown (Australia) max. 47.3
Parafield (Australia) max. 47.7
Edinburgh (Australia) max. 47.5
Roseworthy (Australia) max. 48.3
Nuriootpa (Australia) max. 46
Kuitpo (Australia) max. 44
Strathalbyn (Australia) max. 46.7
Deniliquin (Australia) max. 47.2
Swan Hill (Australia) max. 47.5
Kerang (Australia) max. 47
Kyabram (Australia) max. 47.1
Sale (Australia) max. 45.5
Young (Australia) max. 43.5
Pointe des Trois-Bassins (Reunion Islands, France) max. 37
Cilaos (Reunion Islands, France) max. 31.2
Gobabis (Namibia) max. 41.7
Santiago (Chile) max. 38.3
Santiago Airport (Chile) max. 39.3
Tobalaba (Chile) max. 37.4

Record low temperatures in 2019

Rockford (Illinois, US) min. -35
Moline (Illinois, US) min. -36.1
Link >>

Record highs or lows are often problematic. Especially so with temperature recording at airports. New developments runways, hangars etc often require the screen/sensor has to be moved.

So I decided to have a look back at the long record at Rockford (Illinois). Depending on where you look you will hear that Rockford has records back to the 19th century. There were several gaps in the recording.

Using the historical observing metadata at NOAA I came across two COOP entries for Rockford. The first entry recalls all the various locations (I make it 6) that temperatures were recorded in Rockford from 19th century until summer 1957.

All these 6 locations were well within the current city bounds. See map 1

Then the big move occurred and from 1957 onwards temperature recording at Rockford was made at the airport which is located in rolling farmland, sparsely wooded approx. 4 miles south of downtown Rockford. See map 2

The airport is in more open country and I would expect it to experience greater extremes then the old city locations in map 1.

However within the airport the temperature siting has changed many times. Berkely Earth lists five station moves since 1957 within the grounds of the airport. The biggest move though happened after 1995, Prior to that the site was quite near the current terminal building and there was some obstruction by trees and hangars. Then the siting was changed further to the SE away from most buildings.

So really it has only been in the same location since 2004.

The coldest in over 100 years of temperature recording rings a bit hollow given that there have been so many changes in Rockford. The old city centre locations were probably warmer locations than the current one and also crucially when the cold spells of the 1980s occurred, the screen was located much nearer buildings which undoubtedly kept it warmer than the current site.

It turns out that this dynamic is now being seen as a strong potential tipping point for the global climate system.

This is a very valuable lecture.  wanted to capture it for you here: 

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 06:44:45 PM »
Thanks to all that have tried and responded.

The positive feedbacks gives me confidence that I have nailed a big source of the incompatibility. In short: do not create mp4 files with an odd number of rows.

Cropping the image height from 695 to 694 gives the attached "big" animation:

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 04, 2019, 05:58:40 PM »
Private investment in charging infrastructure storage lowers the eventual grid upgrades needed.  I would not be surprised if the utilities offered VW an incentive, beyond the expected peak demand cost shaving.

Tesla reaches deal with Electrify America to deploy Powerpacks at over 100 charging stations
They announced today that they will deploy Tesla Powerpack systems consisting of “a 210 kW battery system with roughly 350 kWh of capacity” at over 100 charging stations. The system will be designed to be modular in order to increase the capacity if needed.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2019, 02:39:27 PM »
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

Those who disparage Musk for his timeliness should be even more upset with the reliability of doomsayers who have been promising Tesla will go bankrupt “next quarter” for over 10 years now. ;D

-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?

You are a good soul.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 26, 2019, 06:03:20 PM »
It's quite difficult to track individual ice features from freezing season to freezing season but I was curious about a dark line on ascat which also shows up on worldview viirs.
The first animation is ascat 2018074(mar15), 2018317(nov13) and 2019025(jan25).

During the 2017/18 freezing season what was left of the Wrangel arm rotated clockwise to the border of the ESS and the Laptev and some thick ice in the Laptev ended up close to Severnaya Zemlya, shown in the first frames.

In the Nov13 frame the rotation continues and the forked shape of the older ice can just about be identified, somewhat distorted. Unfortunately, surface melting during the summer gives the ice a scatter whitewash as far as ascat is concerned.

In yesterdays frame it is the dark line north east of Kap Morris Jessup that interested me. It appears to be related to the dark line of possibly lower concentration ice between the 2 features in the first frame.
The worldview ani is just to confirm the existence of the darker line and hopefully some thicker ice coming up north of Greenland.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 13, 2019, 04:03:07 AM »
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1928 on: January 12, 2019, 06:14:44 PM »
Quote from: Shared Humanity on January 12, 2019, 06:11:35 PM
2 more years with average temps below 2015/2016 and we'll have to listen to the "why is there a stall in warming" BS.

Needs to slip below the red line for this. I don't think this is going to happen though.

You are assuming at least minimal integrity from the 'contrarians'.  Bad assumption.

Permafrost / Snow Cover changes on regional scale
« on: January 07, 2019, 01:25:37 AM »
I finished calculating regional snow extent data and will post my analysis here. The main snow cover thread doesn't quite fit for this detailed long term analysis. At the moment all data is still in one long list, but after formatting we can graph things like snow extent for region x in month y. I attached a map showing all regions and an example for Greenlands snow extent.

Eventually regional graphs should also get daily updates on my main snow cover webpage

Data Download (csv & formatted ExcelSheet)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 01, 2019, 08:30:38 PM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 30, 2018, 06:43:43 PM »
They say that it looks like we are already starting to see reductions in ICE vehicles in the u.s. as people are delaying their new car purchase to get an EV in the near term.  They project that we will see increased sales of USED ICE vehicles as this transformation takes hold. 

Happy New Year!

That was a very interesting video, but they didn't discuss two things: the price of batteries, and what Big Auto and Big Oil will do to prolong the status quo as long as possible (for instance, by taking out Tesla).

I’m sure Big Auto and Big Oil would like to take out Tesla, but I think it is too late for that, now.  Their efforts weren’t successful when Tesla was smaller and more vulnerable, and now the EV genie is out of the bottle — people want them, and so do governments of polluted cities, states and countries.

What can BA/BO do besides spread FUD (which hasn’t kept Tesla from reaching record after record), and try to end EV subsidies/tax advantages (which tends to hurt Big Auto as well).  Musk has often said that ending all EV subsidies would be beneficial to Tesla, as it would level the playing field.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m sure they will try.  But the China government and people love Tesla (even Model X - themed weddings are a big thing there these days), and EU countries are jumping over each other to win the next Tesla gigafactory.  New huge utility battery projects are in the works all over the world.  And Tesla roofs are just taking off.  2019 will make it clear the tipping point has already passed, and local signs of oil decline will start to be noticed.  Big Oil will have bigger things than Tesla to worry about.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: December 28, 2018, 11:02:24 PM »
A closer look using worldview, viirs, bt15n, dec23-28.
Low concentration area in the centre, Svalbard far right. Winds are forecast from the west for a few more days so the ice front may reach across the warm current to Svalbard again this year.  The cloud streets thickening up with the increasing temperature difference perhaps.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 28, 2018, 04:30:07 PM »
This very interesting presentation shows that the current U.S. auto market in ICE vehicles is currently being suppressed by the introduction of electric vehicles (in general) and (specifically) a viable lower cost Tesla Model 3 that is forthcoming. 

They look at the adoption rates of new technologies and then compare them with the current sales of EVs.

They say that it looks like we are already starting to see reductions in ICE vehicles in the u.s. as people are delaying their new car purchase to get an EV in the near term.  They project that we will see increased sales of USED ICE vehicles as this transformation takes hold. 

Happy New Year!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 25, 2018, 04:17:24 PM »
same old same old.
bon fete :)

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 20, 2018, 02:33:38 AM »
Why on earth would anyone want to pay for a vehicle that doesn't allow the pleasure of driving? ...
Why do I need any of this?
Some people use cars as a means of transport, not for pleasure...
Maybe I dislike driving in endless traffic?
Maybe I want to get home more safely?
Maybe I am too tired or drunk to drive?
Maybe I want to drive my kids to school but I have a dentist's appointment?
Maybe my wife wants to use the car to drive to her office, while I want to use it as well for running errands around town?
Maybe I am disabled and can't drive?
Maybe a taxi costs too much for my commute?
Maybe parking costs too much for my commute?
Maybe there is no convenient public transport to where I need to go?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: December 16, 2018, 12:53:29 PM »
An amateur attempt to match argo float 3901910 to amsr2 to see how close to the ice edge it travelled, aug18-dec14. It reported weekly until nov30 and has reporting daily since. Report (cycle) numbers are overlayed onto Greenland, bottom left.
edit:added temp labels

Approximate data based on eyeballing the attached charts is in text below. Timing the temp/salinity data to the animation makes the gif too large. Easiest to download both gifs and step them manually for analysis. (or even better, advice from someone with netcdf skills pls)

The main observation for ice watchers is that the warm current alongside the ice front is ~2.5C at surface recently.

cycle   lat              long          temp C    sal      date
60   80.06547      5.16783      2.75      32.4      0818
61   80.20849      5.23104      5      34.45   0825
62   80.38986      4.78623      2.6      33.65   0901
63   80.48555      6.0284      4.5      34.42   0908
64   80.49247      6.82373      3.8      34.1      0915
65   80.58095      7.16061      4.3      34.1      0922
66   80.44863      8.30625      3.8      34.4      0929
67   80.43952      9.16231      4      34.75   1006
68   80.37718      7.56771      1.5      34.4      1013
69   80.51731      11.28802      0.3      34.1      1020
70   80.84061      14.77375      3      34.75   1027
71   80.85687      16.35878      1.5      34.6      1103
72   81.43671      17.30993      1.6      34.64   1110
73   81.56787      21.71607      -1.2      34.15   1117
74   81.61883      26.34895      -0.7      34.35   1124
75   81.62392      31.29192      -1.5      34.26   1201
76   81.82774      34.03102      -1.1      34.32   1202
77   82.01424      35.80637      -1.6      34.26   1203
78   82.1778      38.04842      2.5      34.82   1204
79   82.28333      39.82095      -1.6      34.23   1205
80   82.29029      39.77042      2.3      34.77   1206
81   82.28489      39.64985      1.8      34.74   1207
82   82.29791      39.56938      2.7      34.86   1208
83   82.25532      39.58456      0.8      34.61   1209
84   82.22805      39.50098      2.7      34.86   1210
85   82.20667      39.35864      2.5      34.86   1211
86   82.21352      39.10944      1.2      34.45   1212
87   82.21687      39.05996      -1.2      34.29   1213
88   82.21415      39.16856      0      34.49      1214

data here
choose 3901910

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: December 15, 2018, 02:31:14 PM »
According to the document, a Tesla Megapack consists of long 23′-5″ (7.14m) x 5′-3″ (1.60m) battery system, which the company mostly installs back to back with another unit.

Tesla Megapack to debut at giant energy project in California
Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh.

That’s more than 12 times the capacity of Powerpack 2 in a package that could potentially fit about 8 Powerpacks.

The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. ...

Commissioned by PG&E at the Moss Landing substation.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: December 15, 2018, 05:50:41 AM »
Beckwith is pretty much a scientist though, and often references the U of Ottawa climate lab in his videos.

"He is in a Ph.D. program, with a focus on Abrupt Climate System Change (atmosphere, oceans, Arctic, methane…)."

Some of his material is helpful, but the problem with whipping people into a frenzy is that it's unsustainable. Too much leads to either defeatism, or even a strange kind of climate change denial.

If everyone treats the the problem as something for the grandchildren to worry about, then we’re all dead.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 08, 2018, 10:03:45 PM »
Exclusive: Tesla, smarting from trade war, seeks bids for China Gigafactory construction
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Tesla Inc has opened a tender process to build its Shanghai Gigafactory and at least one contractor has started buying materials, according to sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, the clearest indication that construction is imminent.

The details, previously unreported, reveal that state-owned Shanghai Construction Group Co Ltd is taking part in the bidding while a unit of China Minmetals Corp Ltd is preparing materials for the plant's foundations.

Tesla to start production at Gigafactory 3 within a year, says Shanghai Mayor after Tesla visit
The Shanghai government issued an official statement today following a meeting with Tesla executives and they said that the automaker should start production, at least partially, at Gigafactory 3 during the second half of 2019.

Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 to begin in second half of 2019: report
Local media outlet noted that the factory is about to begin construction, particularly since the 864,885-square meter plot of land in the Lingang Industrial Zone has been leveled. In a post on its official WeChat account, the Shanghai government further indicated that Mayor Ying Yong and Vice Mayor Wu Qing have met with Tesla’s leaders in China while checking the company’s new vehicles like the Model 3. During their visit, the Shanghai officials reportedly encouraged parties involved in the project to expedite the construction of Gigafactory 3 even more. ...

EVs, and Teslas in particular, are becoming popular as police vehicles, given their lower cost of fuel and maintenance, and their quietness and quickness. Examples are listed in the first article below.

Tesla Model S becomes sneaky undercover police car

Watch a Tesla Model X electric SUV becoming a police vehicle

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: December 04, 2018, 10:14:45 PM »

In other words, if a block breaks on the patio, the house will not fall down. Applications like reinforced concrete or mix poured from trucks are more complicated with more complex regulation and, thus, for down the road.

Has anyone ever heard of a house falling down because "a block breaks on the patio"?

This sounds increasingly like another Green Tech scheme to suck up more dollars from well meaning dolts.

In days gone by the pitchmen stayed close to the Big Top as the Circus wended it's way through rural America, relying on the Circus's mobility to protect them from mounting scrutiny. Increasingly they dangle their green tinged baubles in front of the credulous, believing that their evident good intentions will protect them from litigation.

I don't wish them well on their journey

The reasoning is that the new concrete can be used in non-support functions like pavers, to prove that the new process works, while not risking lives as part of a building or bridge!

If the pavers hold up well, more investment will be put into trying different mixtures and tweaking the process, and further testing that eventually allows the process to be used on much larger, load-bearing structures.  If the process works as CO2 storage and is structurally sound, the entire industry could change, thus significantly lowering its carbon emissions.

Pavers, then bricks, is the perfect way to test out what may become an industry technology upheaval.  If the new concrete starts to crumble after a few years, no harm done except to the pocketbooks of a few early adopters.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 29, 2018, 08:19:01 PM »
I also think the actual average map is of interest, as it can show which specific points and areas tend to be more or less snow-covered.

Ok here is a map of the 2000-2017 mean snow coverage. Do you like the colorbar better with inconsistent ticks of 90 days & last one of 95 instead of the three 100 day ticks?

Full size at:

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 28, 2018, 12:59:06 AM »
I calculated how long in each year (2000-2017) a gridcell is covered by snow or ice. The presentation is quite bad with google sites so I recommend viewing the images in the google drive folder or even better download the netcdf file and choose the visualization yourself.

NetCDF & Images:


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2018, 03:52:21 PM »
A comparison of Chukchi ice extent from 2015-2018, nov1-24 using amsr2-uhh.
The main ice edge for each year from 2015-2017 has been extracted using edge detect in imagej, then splitting the colour channels to remove some of the concentration data, so it should be seen only as a rough comparison.

Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: November 18, 2018, 06:41:32 PM »
Big Vegan Business

Bill Gates-Backed Vegan Burger Maker Beyond Meat Files for IPO
Beyond Meat Inc., the maker of vegan chicken and beef substitutes including the Beyond Burger, filed for a U.S. initial public offering.

The company filed with an initial offering size of $100 million, which is a placeholder that’s likely to change. The company’s backers include Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates and Don Thompson, McDonald’s Corp.’s former chief executive officer.

Beyond Meat, based in El Segundo, California, was founded in 2009 and initially focused on a frozen-chicken substitute and has taken advantage of vegan diet preferences to go more mainstream. Now, it’s best known for the Beyond Burger, which is made to “look, cook and taste like traditional ground beef,” according to the company’s filing Friday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Its products are sold by grocers such as Kroger and Whole Foods, as well as appearing on restaurant menus for TGI Friday’s and A&W Canada, the company said in its filing.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 13, 2018, 01:02:42 AM »
Immmediate preventative measures:
#NBC7 San Diego on Twitter: "FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Power has been shut off to dozens of San Diego-area communities during today's Red Flag Warning.

Long-term preventative measures:
Fueling the Fire
Controlling combustibles is a major reason we halted the routine conflagration of cities that afflicted America’s cities up to a century ago. Until then, towns burned as often as the surrounding countryside since both were made of the same materials and experienced the same drought and winds. In principle, a similar logic might apply to our rural and wild landscapes if we could agree on what we wanted and how to achieve it. Proper tinkering, many observers think, might allow us to promote the good fires we want and prevent the bad fires we don’t.

For members of the Trump administration, this reasoning leads to “forest management,” which they seem to equate with chain saws. They argue that big-tree logging can be a benign (and profitable) surrogate for fire. But while all fuel is biomass, not all biomass is available as fuel. What fire wants is particles with a lot of surface relative to mass; it wants what a campfire or hearth fire wants. If you wish a fire to flash and roar, put in pine needles, dry grass, and kindling. Add a freshly cut green log and the fire will go out.

Which is to say, logging and burning do different things. Logging physically removes biomass; fire chemically changes it. Logging takes the big stuff and leaves the little; fire burns the little stuff and leaves the big. After a crown fire—a fire that flashes through a forest canopy—what remains are the tree trunks that logging would have hauled off. Removing them earlier would have lathered the land with post-cut debris called slash—exactly the kind of volatile fuel that fire favors. Slash disposal, in turn, typically means burning it, which has its own hazards for escape fires and which fills the sky with noxious smoke. Up until recent decades, the great conflagrations of American history have, with almost preternatural cunning, trailed logging and land-clearing. This is a country that is good at startups, not so great at cleaning up after itself. But that doesn’t mean some kinds of active management can’t work.

Where fires are crashing into towns, the real fuel is the built environment. Aerial photos of savaged suburbs tend to show incinerated structures and still-standing trees. The vegetation is adapted to fire; the houses aren’t. Once multiple structures begin to burn, the local fire services are overwhelmed and the fire spreads from building to building. This is the kind of urban conflagration Americans thought they had banished in the early 20th century. It’s like watching measles or polio return. Clearly, the critical reforms must target our houses and towns and revaccinate them against today’s fire threats. The National Fire Protection Association’s Firewise program shows how to harden houses and create defensible space without nuking the scene into asphalt or dirt. ...

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 04, 2018, 02:03:34 PM »
Hi Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover fans,

I'm still in the process of building my Albedo Warming model for the whole Northern Hemisphere. It's probably ready before Christmas.

So far I manged to get the NOAA data into a usable format and encoded the continents as subregions. What's still missing is a pixel area correction.

Since I got the snow extent data already I will then publish daily snow extent graphs as well. What do you think about the following graph combining all continents & sea ice into one graph? It's definitely different to any other product out there, but I'm not sure if it has too much colour on it. Changing them and the transparancy is of course no problem.

Edit: In the first picture the shaded regions are 1 standard deviation

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 02, 2018, 12:48:07 PM »
Hi I am a longtime lurker. Inspired by a post on Jason Box's Twitter feed I was one of the 1000 people at the Declaration of Rebellion for Extinction Rebellion on Wednesday. It was a glorious autumn day and I felt privileged to be at the start of something so significant.

Nature is not wrong or right, it just is.

Humans are part of nature.

Humans want to survive, thrive and multiply.

Humans discovered fossil fuels.

Human knowledge has known of the consequences of fossil fuel usage for a long time.

No politician can be elected by promising to cut off what makes us powerful.

Even if one part of the world did this, another part would take advantage.

In any case, the die is cast (which IMO is the reason for rise in Trump style super-denialism).

In the meantime, I love the science and the marvellous contribution of fellow posters  :)

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 23, 2018, 06:59:28 PM »
Rapid Effects of Climate Change On Plants and their Ecosystems

An international team of researchers led by two Villanova University biologists has found that climate change is dramatically altering terrestrial plant communities and their ecosystems at such a rapid pace that having a stable baseline from which to conduct experiments is becoming increasingly difficult.

... For most species (57 per cent), according to the article, the magnitude of ambient change was greater than the magnitude of treatment effects—the opposite of the result expected by the researchers.

"A preponderance of evidence suggests that ongoing climate change is dramatically altering terrestrial plant communities," the article states.

... "One key take-away from the IPCC report that supports our findings is that changes across many ecosystems may be happening faster than we thought," Chapman agreed. "Plants are shifting under our feet as we're trying to predict the future."
"Plants are the base of the food web and drive the carbon cycle, nutrient cycles and water cycles on which we rely," Langley said. "When the plant species change, everything else in the ecosystem may follow."
He added, "We are trying to simulate how the future earth will look with global change, but, climate change and nutrient pollution are changing ecosystems so fast it's tough to experiment on top of those changes. In the face of ongoing environmental change, our experiments may be like 'rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic'.

Open Access: J.A.Langley, et. al., Ambient changes exceed treatment effects on plant species abundance in global change experiments. Global Change Biology. 18 October 2018


Study Finds Availability of Nitrogen to Plants is Declining as Climate Warms

Researchers have found that global changes, including warming temperatures and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, are causing a decrease in the availability of a key nutrient for terrestrial plants. This could affect the ability of forests to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and reduce the amount of nutrients available for the creatures that eat them.

... "This idea that the world is awash in nitrogen and that nitrogen pollution is causing all these environmental effects has been the focus of conversations in the scientific literature and popular press for decades," said Elmore. "What we're finding is that it has hidden this long-term trend in unamended systems that is caused by rising carbon dioxide and longer growing seasons."

Researchers studied a database of leaf chemistry of hundreds of species that had been collected from around the world from 1980-2017 and found a global trend in decreasing nitrogen availability. They found that most terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests and land that has not been treated with fertilizers, are becoming more oligotrophic, meaning too little nutrients are available.

"If nitrogen is less available it has the potential to decrease the productivity of the forest. We call that oligotrophication," said Elmore. "In the forested watershed, it's not a word used a lot for terrestrial systems, but it indicates the direction things are going."

"This new study adds to a growing body of knowledge that forests will not be able to sequester as much carbon from the atmospheric as many models predict because forest growth is limited by nitrogen," said Eric Davidson, director of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science's Appalachian Laboratory. "These new insights using novel isotopic analyses provide a new line of evidence that decreases in carbon emissions are urgently needed."

Joseph M. Craine et al. Isotopic evidence for oligotrophication of terrestrial ecosystems, Nature Ecology & Evolution (2018).


Scientists Warn of Insect Pest Outbreaks and Reduced Wheat Yields

Climate-warming affects farmlands by increasing pests but not their natural predators, resulting in reduced crop yields, new research has revealed.

The study, published today in the journal, Molecular Ecology, provides the first experimental evidence of how the interactions between agricultural plants, greenflies and tiny parasitoid wasps are affected in a world where temperatures are increased by 1.4°C.

Scientists at Newcastle University and the University of Hull have also shown that a rise in temperature drives changes in the crop, altering the growing patterns of the wheat that produced fewer, lighter seeds.

Stephane A.P. Derocles et al. Climate-warming alters the structure of farmland tri-trophic ecological networks and reduces crop yield, Molecular Ecology (2018).


Non-Native Plants in Homeowners' Yards Endanger Wildlife

"Most homeowners think plants are just decorations with no thought to the ecological roles plants must play in our landscapes," Tallamy said. "So they go to the nursery and buy the prettiest plant they can find. The nursery industry has pushed plants from someplace else for a century because they are unusual and have market value."

Most plant-eating insects can only eat species with which they have coevolved. Non-native plants have defensive chemicals in their tissues, which ward off indigenous insects. The indigenous insects cannot eat a given plant unless it has developed the adaptations to circumvent those defenses. Not only do non-native plants smell and taste different, but these species are often toxic to most of native bugs.

Ho hum. Another small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Canada.

It also looks like not that much snow in the remainder of October. Just occasional storms hitting NW USA  and Quebec.

This was the other level published in the article - both of which generated interest from a DC architect whom made off with probably one of the highest performance building designs ever... notice the protected inner core consistent on all levels.  Top center are two full semi-rigs and tailers for size reference:

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 16, 2018, 09:49:29 PM »
Some interesting news from the eMove360° conference and trade fair in Munich today:

It's 22 kW, bi-directional and passively cooled. Apparently it's artificial intelligence understands verbal instructions too:

Wallbox is also making it easier to manage electric vehicle charging at home. The company is introducing software that allows spoken commands, and cognitive intelligence that learns about an owner’s charging behaviour and preferences, in order to predict optimum energy balance with home and grid.

This unique two-tier combination of software technologies means that you can speak directly to your home charging system and it will interpret your requirements in the most energy efficient manner. For instance, you can simply say: ‘I need my car fully charged for the morning’ and Wallbox will take care of the rest, with consideration for all other home energy demands during the same period of charging.

The ability for Wallbox software to automatically manage charging in this way adds another smart layer to dynamic load balancing between between vehicle and the home, and vehicles parked in the same area.

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