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Messages - johnm33

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 15, 2019, 12:49:33 AM »
unihamburg amsr2uhh overlaid onto ascat with 100% ice (normally white) set to transparent. The amsr2 overlay is 70% transparent to allow other features of ascat to show through, notably greenland. It also helps to make the 'weather' over open water less distracting.
Similar to last year the wash of warm weather has revealed fractures in the older ice that were not visible previously.
thanks to A-Team for helpful hints, some of which need further work,2558.msg205561.html#msg205561

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 02, 2019, 06:42:16 PM »
This rather big floe that just entered the Nares Strait has melt ponds.

(GIF requires a click to play)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: May 31, 2019, 12:33:55 AM »
I made a quick and lightweight sea ice comparison page for the entire NSIDC data set. At the moment it's just for the 1st of the month, but soon I add the 15th of the month as well.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: May 26, 2019, 12:26:28 AM »
for reference, a rough overlay of global hycom cice ice thickness (GLBb 0.08-93.0) over ascat at 42% transparency.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« on: May 11, 2019, 08:00:17 PM »
This method does appear to show tidal movement.

Yupp, see GIF. Click it!
Funny how the wave coming from the south (or something) is causing gyres in the strait right now. Have never seen it that pronounced.

By the way, does this rule out 'not!' or does it have to stay put for 24hrs ?

Has to stay put for at least 24h. Otherwise, it's 1-3 Days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 27, 2019, 07:47:45 AM »
00z Good-for-sh*t has 576DM ridging over Beaufort @ hr 120 :o

Thanks for your updates on this Bbr. One question though. Could you provide a little more commentary in plain language, so non-meteorologist can understand you too?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: April 19, 2019, 10:54:58 PM »
Looking for something about Amundsen Gulf tides found this journal from 1986.

International Hydrographie  Review,  Monaco,  LXIII (2),  July  1986CANADIAN  ARCTIC  TIDE  MEASUREMENTTECHNIQUES  AND  RESULTSby  B.J.  TAIT,  S.T.  GRANT,  D.  St.-JACQUES  and  F.  STEPHENSON (*)

The  tide  in  the  southern  Beaufort  Sea  and  in  Amundsen  Gulf  propagates counterclockwise  about  an  amphidromic  point  situated near the  southwest  corner of  Banks  I.  It  propagates  quickly  along  the  coast  from  Alaska  to  a  point approximately midway along the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula where it slows significantly,  reaching  Sachs  Harbour (site  4,  Figure  2)  on  Banks  I. about  six  hours  later.  In Amundsen  Gulf the  tide  travels  east  into  Dolphin  and  Union  Strait  and  Prince Albert  Sound  and  northwest  into  Prince  of Wales  Strait.The  tidal  propagation  patterns  in  the  waterways  between  the  eastern  end  of Amundsen Gulf and the southern end of M’Clintock Channel are complex and not yet  well  defined.  Further field  surveys  are  planned  for these  areas.

First image is fig2 from the journal.
Original rammb animation 35MB (80 frames) when cropped was 5MB and very small. Enlarged 2x took it to 18MB. Converting to mp4 gets 384kB. (click to play)
ffmpeg -i rb2.gif -pix_fmt yuv420p -vf "scale=trunc(iw/2)*2:trunc(ih/2)*2" rb2.mp4
Worldview terra modis apr18 (or nearest) 2010-2019posted on melting season (deleted here to help save the planet)

For me it's the anecdotal stories. I think I am probably one of the least ( formally )educated people on this forum but I have, like any other human, stories to tell. Watching as the ocean has changed over my lifetime as a commercial diver and fisherman gives me an opportunity to tell a unique story. I have watched as the abalone resources have , for the most part , collapsed. The starfish and the sea urchins also succumbing to disease brought on by the stress of increased ocean heat. My own guilt in knowing that the fuel I have used to pursue a fishing career has contributed to the death and mayhem now all around me.
 My transition to farming also comes with stories of decline. The 108 F heatwave that last year killed all the fledgling swallows in their nests and this years abandoned nesting  colony that had returned every one of the last twenty years till now. The disappearance of the Phoebes that also shared my farm with me for twenty years, the noticeable declines in insects. The loss of so many pines and oaks during our eight year drought. 
 The struggles against what appear to be irreversible changes. Tragic losses and what passes for my feeble attempts to forestall future horrors yet unseen. My stories, our stories , and the emotional context that might inspire others  to look a little deeper , fight a little harder,  and on occasion shed tears over our shared losses.   

The rest / Re: How Educated are we as a Forum
« on: April 04, 2019, 10:50:47 PM »
uni drop out

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 04, 2019, 10:06:37 PM »
Weather is unaffected by ice thickness also.  The entire evapotranspiration process is cutoff, when the water is covered by ice. 

Given the topic at hand, the differences between open water and an ice-covered surface is significantly greater than the difference in ice thickness.

GAC2012, in case one has forgotten, puts a great lie to those statements. The GAC ran onto ice, which if thick and solid would have died out quickly as the temp differential between the outer edge and core would have become the same as both would have been using the same air. What happened in 2012, the ice was thin or if thick very broken, which when the storm first hit dispersed the ice giving access to open water. End result was the temp differential remained high enough the the storm continued doing damage for a very long time. Volume and density do matter very much.
Another factor is waves. Waves hitting a wall of dense thick ice lose all their energy very fast. In 2007, scientists witnessed many times where waves were entering ice fields 100's of miles from the edge and destroying ice over 10 meters thick because the ice was really nothing more then slush. Again volume and density matter.
The last few years we have not seen a GAC nor the kind of wave action that destroys fragile ice and therefore extent has been a very important factor as  far as the shape of ice appears to be in, but if we get another storm like in 2012 or wave action like in 2007, and I feel that we would witness very large fast decline in the ice, because the volume and density of the ice that is around is very very fragile.
BTW I have not voted because it all depends on the weather. Some conditions the 2D metric is far better, but in others the 3D is far better. If we ever can get to the point of getting reliable density measurements, that would be even better.

The rest / Re: The Empire vs Venezuela - News and History
« on: April 04, 2019, 12:13:13 PM »
Lurk's post of Eva Bartlett's piece above literally says : "I don't see a 'crisis' in Caracas".

Yes, and a certain David Viner once said that kids in the UK would never see snow again. He represents all scientists, and hence AGW is a hoax.

You go dig for one quote by one person, and then you smear a whole group. You engage in the same tactics as climate risk deniers.

And even then, she says 'Caracas', which isn't all of 'Venezuela'.

Name one with more than 1 million percent inflation.
Or name one that is selling the gold from their central bank.

And name one who got there because of US foreign policy.

No two countries are the same. I can name you one with more than 1 million dead people because of US foreign policy. I can name you another one that is completely devastated because of US meddling. And I'm sure that in the past there have been other countries in the past with more than 1 million percent of inflation, selling its gold, more or less enhanced by illegal sanctions.

The point is: The media doesn't make a fuss about those other countries, except when it's about regime change that serves US corporate interests. And you only care when the media tells you to.

If he got Venezuela wrong, why is Bernie your top pick for president of the US, Neven ?
Wouldn't Tulsi Gabbard be a better choice for you ?

Bernie doesn't get Venezuela wrong (stop twisting words like a climate risk denier), he frames it the wrong way, playing into the hands of those who are trying to establish a narrative that manufactures consent, so they can go make money off of other people's misery. Bernie needs to frame it in a different way, by emphasizing that Trump/Pompeo/Bolton/Abrams/Rob Dekker need to stop meddling, that the illegal US sanctions need to be lifted asap, and that only then is there a need for open and fair elections (they aren't fair because of the sanctions) and a way forward where the US and Venezuela work together to decrease Venezuela's dependency on AGW-inducing oil.

What happened to 'resist Trump at every turn'? First you help him with Russiagate, now you help him with his corporate warmongering, so the neoliberal stooges can pump oil more efficiently and put the profits in their own pockets (hence no better than the corrupt system now in place). You're no better than a Putin puppet, Rob.

No, actually, you are better.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 01, 2019, 11:42:17 AM »
The Atlantification/Pacification of the basin is a growing thing not a seasonal intrusion. Once the Halocline is either flooded over or mixed out it'll take a nice age to rebuild the depth we had as recently as the noughties?

The loss of that layer allows a very different ocean , and processes ,to evolve in line with all the other Oceans of the World.

My concern is , like so much else in nature, it is not a straight line graph of change but one with very rapid periods of alteration?

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 21, 2018, 07:54:08 PM »
SH, I find different agricultural emissions numbers ranging from 9% to 17% for the US. I think we are energy hogs with agriculture contributing less here than other parts of the world only because we fly, and drive and live in big houses with big appliances .
 From the EPA ,agriculture contributes 9% with cattle contributing one third of the total . Even if total agriculture is more like 20% I would think the one third from cattle is probably a fair assessment . I keep saying I agree that reducing meat consumption is a good idea but it is far from enough.
 I have sincere doubts about livestock utilizing 93% of arable land however. Maybe part of the discrepancy of emission figures has to do with assigning an emissions number for the farming emissions from livestock feed production.
 My biggest disagreement is with your premise that meat is low hanging fruit.  No hamburgers, no milkshakes, and abject poverty for vast swaths of middle America.  I think food prices would be a potential disincentive that far exceeds volunteerism . Subsidies cause distortions in food choices and they are intended to do so. Keeping the public fat and happy may be a contributing factor. Again I am proposing a radical shift and telling farmers they need to forego 20 billion in subsidies is radical. Keeping those middle American republican votes requires the subsidies to be maintained and Trump threw an additional 5 billion to farmers yesterday to compensate for his trade war damage. At the same time he is shutting down the government to get a similar 5 billion dollar wall number. So democrats are willing to cooperate on ag subsidies ,not on a wall.
 None of this addresses the damage that subsidized commodity dumping has on artisanal farmers in the third world . Like I said earlier it sucks for vegetable operators also.
Dump the fuel and energy subsidies
Dump the agriculture subsidies
Wait for the chaos that follows to crash the GDP and resulting in meaningful reductions in emissions.

Yes I realize the fact that I can feed myself probably affects my suggestions but more people need to take up the challenge of feeding themselves. That to me is the real low hanging fruit but it is probably necessary to load the scales in people's decision matrix. Pain and hunger are big motivators..

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: December 15, 2018, 03:18:09 AM »
The Psychology of Gaslighting

Ask me to explain the details in the molecular physics and mathematics behind the actions of GHGs and I will be at a loss. On the other hand I think I was blessed to have some good teachers about human behavior and psychology. With many opportunities to practice and observe some of the things I was shown at work and in social settings among groups of all kinds of different people. I have also seen those very same things I had learned being played out in the media and especially politics where life can become very stressful indeed.

When people feel under pressure, are being criticized or are stressed there are 4 default communication modes that are typically adopted unconsciously. The most common one is to become a Placater, to be submissive. We all learn this mode from the moment we are born from our parents, our families and in kindergarten especially. The template is laid down in our neural pathways.

The next most common response mode is to become a Blamer back. This has been called by some the Blamer Blamer mode. The best form of defense is to attack. Behind school yard bullying and peer-pressure is this Blamer communication mode. Why? It tends to work a treat. Especially if one can do it successfully without any guilt and with self-righteous indignation. It too becomes a template laid down in an individuals neural pathways when a child or a teen.

Understanding how this can operate on a personal level helps by also understanding that typically when someone is pointing the finger against another for some poor behaviour or harm that has been (perceived) to be done, then 3 others fingers are pointing back upon themselves. Try it - point to the wall and see what your three little fingers are doing. It's a physical representation of a psychological truism. This is what the DNC and the Hillary Clinton Campaign have essentially been doing since 2016.

Part of my observations have involved seeing how individual people function within Institutional settings eg when in schools, colleges, Government departments, businesses, corporations, political movements, bikie groups, religions and churches. While they can adjust the personal behaviours to fit the framework in which they are operating once there is excessive stress involved they all tend to default back to their individual modes of communication.

An Institution that is being criticized, outed or is under attack therefore mimics as a whole entity similarly to what the people inside are feeling like and how they are reacting when stressed.

The analogy is to imagine an unfaithful husband. The wife gets a 6th sense something is not quite right. She tries to ignore the changes she has noticed but eventually, upset, stressed, she confronts her husband with her unproven evidence free suspicions. Knowing she is right and therefore immediately triggered by the stress of being found out the husband switches immediately to Blamer Blamer mode - "How dare you accuse ME of such a thing!" - "I have had all this extra work to do, I am doing my best, but it's YOU who hasn't been paying me enough attention or supporting me through it." And they're off.

People can only defend themselves based on what they already know. They cannot be instinctively creative when under stress. Unfaithful husbands know what they have been doing and how they have tried to avoid being exposed. Knowing that, they will automatically begin to recall examples in their wife's own behaviour that 'mimics', looks very similar to, the things he has done himself.

In blamer blamer mode the husband can turn the tables and lay out all these examples of how 'suspicious' some of the wife's own 'changes' and odd behaviour have been lately. She knows she has not been unfaithful, and so what she is presented with is a very powerful case of Plausible Deniability on the part of the husband. Gosh, maybe she was just being paranoid and reading too much into it, she thinks.

The key point here to remember is that the guilty party knows exactly how things work when one is covering up secrets, nefarious, underhanded or unethical behavior.  Even more than this, this is precisely how they generally think. It's their basic Psychology iow.

However usually, the wife will immediately switch to the Placater mode because she feels guilty - she can see well yes, what he says could be true too. Maybe 5 years later she finally come across the hard evidence she was right all along.

All Institutions are made up of people. As such whole Institutions operate in a very similar way. They too point fingers. But all of them find 'placating' an impossibility. Their default position when under stress is always to defend, to attack, to blame the accusers as much as possible. You've seen this happening all your life - from both sides of the fence. Maybe you never thought about it at a human personal level before or ever imagined some core default human communication mode being in play by an Institution.

How do you think the Catholic Church and the thousands of other Institutions who have avoided their complicity and cover-ups of child abuse for so long?  Every Institution operates in the same ways. It's in their 'nature' do be like that. Because they have all been 'created' by human beings to a particular standard design for centuries.

So knowing all this and being able to see it play out in the real world up close and at distance one can get a really good hint about what may be going behind the scenes even with a total lack of hard evidence. But when people are unable to even become suspicious about anothers behaviour they have little to no chance of ever thinking about what kind of evidence might even exist or where to go find it.

Placaters simply accept what someone tells them at face value. They do not wish to be seen as accusatory or radical or argumentative. Silence works to decrease one's stress levels and help them turn away from things they do not wish to even contemplate could be true.

So if you really want to gain some insights into the possibility of the guilt or innocence of the DNC and the Clinton Campaign then I suggest the following. To understand what they know, and to understand how they think about things in general, and what their ethical standards may be, go read their Court submission for their Lawsuit against Wikileaks and the Trump campaign. It's an 'open book'.

You see, I posit that it's more likely than not that the DNC et al know exactly what it is like to be thinking about and doing those things they are blaming the others for. They also know how to go about it in practice. They are speaking about things they already intimately know about from their direct first hand experience.   :o

It has been said 'the eyes are a window into the soul.' I say people's words (and the words of Institutions) are a window into their mind and how it thinks.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 25, 2018, 08:22:18 PM »
It looks like, on the surface, there is a strong freshwater flow from the kara sea (from the River Ob?) that flows into the Laptev, probably causingenabling the arc of flash freezing.
The mercator model is starting to look quite accurate (despite the scales)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 24, 2018, 11:55:33 AM »
The forecast is for higher waves next week.

Looking for reasons for the Lincoln Sea melt, here is mercator 34m salinity, jun2017-aug2018, every 8th day and a bathymetry map

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 31, 2018, 05:56:39 AM »
Adding today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, now 7 consecutive daily maps spanning 6 days and ending at 2018-07-30.

Click to animate...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 27, 2018, 06:07:34 PM »
I am as surprised as everyone else by the quick deterioration of the ice. ...
We've had hints.  Thinking back to the refreeze, the regions now disintegrating were late to freeze, and suffered heavily from persistent imports of heat through the Bering.  This was reflected in some of the thickness maps, but others consistently reported that the ice was probably a meter or more thicker than it actually was.

Roll forward to today.  Speaking in approximations, in recent years (2015 to present) volume at peak is running around 21,000 KM3 at max.  If you take the most recent maximum extent - about 14,000,000 KM2, we end up with an average ice thickness of about 1.5 meters.

Looking earlier - here I'm thinking of the old regime - 1980-89, the extent isn't particularly greater - only about 16,000,000 KM2, but typical average volume is much higher - on the order of 31,000 KM3, which gives us at that time a typical average thickness of around 1.93 - call it almost 2 meters.

The difference between the two - 50 centimeters - is very key, because the drop in thickness and volume means that we've passed a key threshold:  the typical energy taken up during the melt season in the Arctic is almost enough to melt out all volume.  The number here, approximating from Jim Pettit's graphs examining typical volume lost during the melt season, divided by max area works out to be about 1.3 meters of melt.

Obviously that melt isn't distributed evenly, nor is ice thickness.  However, it does mean that regions which do not pass that 1.3 meter thickness during the refreeze are now at serious risk.  It will take extraordinarily favorable conditions for ice retention to prevent an *average* melt from melting out the areas where this is true.

I think that's what we are seeing here, and elsewhere, such as the interior of the CAB where we've been having surprising losses in area.  Interstitial ice formed in leads during the season which did not have time to thicken sufficiently past that 1.3 meter threshold is disappearing.

We are definitely in a new regime.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 26, 2018, 07:50:36 PM »
In the melt season, yes it's useless for measuring thickness.

What it is sensitive to then is "wetness of the surface and occurence of melt ponds":

I stand corrected. I figured it was useless because the changes are all over the place when I look at animations. But maybe there's a way to compare to previous years, after all.

My very amateur weather eye sees that the weather forecasting models look quite consistent for the next week, with high pressure currently over the Laptev sea weakening but ridging toward a building high on the Beaufort/CAA side, which stays stationary at about 1025mb into the weekend. Meanwhile low pressure spins near Franz Josef Land, although the models differ a little on how deep the low gets, ECMWF a bit weaker and GFS a bit stronger. Seems like good melting weather for parts of the ice that haven't seen much direct sun yet, continued strong sun in along the eastern Siberian side, and also consistent winds blowing ice toward the Atlantic.

Excellent summary. I'm curious to see how extent and area will respond, given the recent spectacular stall. If it takes too long, I agree with Friv that this melting season won't be making top 5.

I think there is far too .much obsession going on with meltponds and surface wetness. For various reasons there is big increase in salinity from the surface to the bottom of the ice now. Try floating some ice on some salt water and melting the top with a hair dryer. It will quickly refreeze on the surface. BECAUSE of the energy absorbed by the bottom melting. The Arctic is bottom melting faster than ever before. And wave action, porosity, small fragment size, no deep keeled ice to maintain a freshwater lid are all contributions.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: June 18, 2018, 10:06:03 PM »
As a farmer, when I first read the article on insect decline last fall, it rocked me to the core. Scared me even more than the scariest climate change scenarios. It also rang true. We work to attract beneficial insects and it seems to get harder each year even as we have more host plants. We are, like most organic farms, surrounded by conventional farms. We farm apples and the standard budget for apple orchards, prepared by the very good ag program at the university nearby, calls for 14 rounds of spray each year. 10 of those are insecticide or fungicide. We're organic but even we have to deal with the coddling moths, which lay eggs that hatch into worms in apples. We use a virus that only kills the coddling moth but even that I ask myself - how am I contributing to this terrible problem? Achieving a balance where birds and predatory insects eat enough of the moths to have the worms stay at an acceptable level is kind of a fantasy. In our world there is no acceptable level of worms in apples. We sell mostly direct so there is a little forgiveness but if we were bigger and shipped apple there would be none.

We're a big berry growing area and those ship internationally. A certain fruit fly has become a problem here and there is zero tolerance for them. What does this mean? Blueberries, especially late season ones, are often insecticide sprayed every three days. I know conventional growers that won't eat their own berries because of the level of poisons on them.

I've no doubt that agriculture is largely responsible for insect decline. That said, consumers play a significant role here too. If you expect perfect produce know that the environmental cost of that is huge. I've had people tell me they won't buy organic produce because only chemically treated produce can leave them assured they won't encounter a bug. I doubt that much of the public would say they prefer chemicals to insects if you asked them. That said, almost all of them will chose the most perfect apple in the bin.

The rest / Re: 'Deep State' Fact or Fiction
« on: May 26, 2018, 11:02:59 PM »

Nice topic

From my experience of having spent a career deep in the bowls of the military/intelligence machine I would state with total conviction that a 'Deep State' does exist.

But not as some imagine it.  For instance this from your first post..

"In the United States the term "deep state" is used within political science to describe influential decision-making bodies believed to be within government who are relatively permanent and whose policies and long-term plans are unaffected by changing administrations.

..absolutely does NOT exist.  This is conspiracy crazy stuff from spy books and movies.

But if you take this quote.

The term "deep state" was defined in 2014 by Mike Lofgren, a former Republican U.S. congressional aide, as "a hybrid association of elements of government and parts of top-level finance and industry that is effectively able to govern the United States without reference to the consent of the governed as expressed through the formal political process."

I would say that pretty much hits the nail on the head.  With the addition of those of very substantial old money wealth also having significant influence.  But this term far predates Lofgren and 2014 as I used to use it and hear it in conversations at work back in the 1980's. It has been rattling around for ever.

The Deep State is not an secret organization sending little missives down to the President and Congress telling them what to do.  It does not work that way.  What it does is basically provide the strategy and direction of the country.  It works to maintain the Empire and grow it when possible, it sets the ideological parameters which govern the political parties, it chose the neo-liberal economic structure which the D's and R's adhere too, it chose globalization at the expense of the workers, and so on ad infinitum.

You can see the workings of the Deep State in its reaction to the reforms and govt structure put in place by FDR.  It lost control then and spent decades working its way back into full control.  Ideologies were reworked, goals towards deregulation set in place, resetting the tax structure to strongly favor the wealthy, using various forms of propaganda to steer the voters emotions towards voting against their own interests, maintaining a permanent state of war, taking over the free press so that we have corporate control over almost all media, deepening the surveillance state whenever possible, and so on.

You select your ideological precepts, find political scientists and economists to provide a paper basis for your goals, push candidates who will attempt to implement your desires via new laws or by revoking old ones, work hard to undercut the political power of your opponents, work to cripple the public school systems, create armies of lobbyists and thousands of 'think tanks' to push your agendas, stuff the courts with pliable judges (corporations are people for instance), and so on.  All stuff we have witnessed over the last 40 years. 

The US is a democratic country in name only.  Voters have virtually zero actual influence on policy, the voting of our officials, and, of course, we don't actually vote for the top 2 positions even though we pretend to.  Our directions are set by the 1%, the captains of industry, the leaders of the MIIC - the Deep State.

This is not to say that there is complete consensus among them.  There is always strife between humans and different ideas and power structures.  But there emerges, if not a full consensus, at least enough of one to enable movement in a general direction to take place.  Change comes slowly in such a system as the need for new approaches are identified and adaptations made.  Thus we have destroyed most of what enabled the working class and middle class to have decent lives over the last 40 years - and the mainstream D's and all the R's worked hard to make this happen as their masters wished them to do.

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