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Messages - wili

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 08, 2019, 01:06:07 PM »
If I want to know which countries are the happiest/best to live in I do not need to look at GDp or any other data, just one:

Where do people emigrate to and where do they emigrate from?

So if people hate living there, but the money is good, this is a sign of happiness????
(Middle East may well be better example of this. However it suggests you need more than one piece of data.)

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 05, 2019, 01:43:52 AM »
So all in all I'm not at all convinced that we are looking at any existential threat to civilisation. I'm actually pretty optimistic that wars and famines can be avoided even in a worst-case AGW situation, and I'm absolutely convinced that humanity will not be able to do anything purposeful to avoid what is going to happen.

So, in summary, we can do nothing about AGW and everything will be just fine.

I'm not going to block you but I am certainly going to skip over anything you write from now on.

3
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 29, 2019, 10:25:18 AM »
Quote
At the same time, the major stories out now breathlessly talk about how CO2 levels now exceed any time in human history going back 3-5 million years. They utterly miss the fact that under current or even under vastly reduced growth rates, the “current” atmospheric CO2 levels will race above that short term blip in CO2 level 3 million years ago and rise to levels not seen in over 25 million years.
Think of a once in three million year weather event.
Then consider that as a new normal.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 28, 2019, 02:02:59 AM »
https://skepticalscience.com/saturated-co2-effect.htm

basic, intermediate and advanced tabs depending on audience.


https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

https://skepticalscience.com/co2-levels-airborne-fraction-increasing.htm

https://skepticalscience.com/CRU-tampered-temperature-data.htm
(perhaps not quite the concern raised but....)

https://skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.htm

It might be possible to add something along the lines of:

All these common myths are so often debunked that someone felt the need to create website containing the rebuttals so it can just be referred to rather than working out how to state the rebuttals each time. If all 5 listed items are pretty well dealt with, this might imply something about the denialists drifting from one rebutted myth to another and never managing to come up with anything that hasn't been debunked.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 06, 2019, 12:04:44 AM »
Terry - whose name, using a Paraguayan keyboard, would be Perry.  ;D

6
I wish it weren't so, but Sanders really is America's best hope for positive change. If he isn't elected president, the country will go nowhere (except probably further downhill).

7
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 03, 2019, 11:03:25 PM »
^^
Gerontocrat, it seems as though we've run out of time to do much more than hunker down and face what's coming.


I haven't been overly impressed by our progress to date - your charts made things all too clear. We've had opportunities to cooperate but found more profit in competition. We could have legislated against mining exporting, or shipping coal, but we relied on "market forces" - forces totally divorced from any thought of survival.
Plans for initiating mitigation that begin decades after the crisis weren't just useless, they froze out other schemes that could have been initiated soon enough to have had some effect.


Nuclear power has always had it's dangers. Germany's sudden pull back necessitated increasing her reliance on coal, oil, and gas - then America slowed Germany's access to relatively clean Russian gas in hopes of replacing it with much dirtier LNG shipped across an ocean. Poland welcomed her transition to home grown coal - while the EU did nothing, even as the EU chides others for ignoring their Paris Accord commitments.


I'm not forgetting my own heavily hypocritical Canada. We recognized the necessity, most even had some sense of the urgency. We voted out the deniers, then our new "progressive" government opted to shore up the dirtiest oil producing scheme on the planet. We're a rich country that wouldn't have been brought to ruin by shutting down the tar sands, but we hadn't the political will to do the one meaningful thing we could have done as a country.


Russia isn't the enemy & neither is China. This isn't an attack by "others", this is a suicide pact that our representatives, and theirs, signed in all of our names.
Terry

8
The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:27:07 AM »
A. Lots of self-admiration on the blog. Very tiring to read.
B. Taking turns shooting at climate change activism, renewable energy, and nuclear energy, although making sure to acknowledge that AGW is "a real and serious issue". Strongly smelled of disguised denialism.
C. A whole blog post about the catastrophe of Peak Oil yet not a single mention of the remote possibility that electricity could be an alternative to oil, or of the very existence of Battery Electric Vehicles (even managed to take a potshot at Elon Musk without mentioning EVs).
D. Freely mixing energy consumption and oil consumption, with not a single mention of natural gas as a possible alternative to oil for some uses.

I am deeply unimpressed. While the blogger seems to have the economic cycle of oil prices and production analyzed and understood properly, and the finiteness of the planet etc., all the rest is contrived IMHO. Ignoring EVs is such a serious flaw in the analysis of demand destruction that it has to be intentional. And the disguised denial overtones made me sorry I clicked the link.

9
I hope he recovers soon and continues campaigning.

10
The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: October 02, 2019, 02:02:08 AM »
???

So what. A news organization got a detail in a story wrong, and then corrected the story. It happens pretty much every day. If you or Dore are going to jump up and down every time that happens, you're gonna get sore leg muscles from repetitive motion sickness! :D

Indeed.  Trump asked the President of Ukraine to "do us a favor, though" and launch an investigation into the Bidens.  The aid to Ukraine was very clearly implied as hostage to compliance.  The facts are clear.  Overstatements by one or another news outlet are irrelevant to the overall picture. 

11
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 25, 2019, 05:47:03 PM »
Tom,
Thanks for putting your posts (or at least most of them) in one place (here).  It has to be easier on you, too!  If a post 'really belongs' someplace else, though (like a great picture of Arctic ice), put it where it 'belongs', if you like.
Tor

12
The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: September 24, 2019, 08:16:40 PM »
Every Group Except Older Republicans Is Concerned About Climate Change
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-change-poll_n_5d87ab74e4b0849d472adbb3
Quote
But the poll also finds a significant generational divide within the GOP: 69% of Republicans under age 45 describe themselves as at least somewhat concerned about climate change, compared to just 38% of those age 45 and older. There’s not a similar difference based on age among Democrats.

GOP LEADERSHIP HUDDLES WITH FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY DURING CLIMATE WEEK
https://theintercept.com/2019/09/22/gop-fossil-fuel-fundraisers-climate-week/
Quote
YOUTH DEMONSTRATORS stormed streets across the world demanding drastic action on the climate crisis on Friday, following a visit by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg on Capitol Hill last week to press lawmakers to view rising greenhouse gases as an existential problem that requires an immediate response.

Behind closed doors, across town in Washington, D.C., Republican lawmakers, including leadership, huddled with the fossil fuel industry, maintaining the very ties that bind U.S. policymakers and prevent them from addressing climate change.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: September 22, 2019, 05:53:55 PM »
Alexander, I agree that we should have harmonized tax system in EU and elsewhere. The current situation is often like robbery - small countries suck from large ones with a bit of profit and large damage for others.

But those tax systems are not robbery by people, because the people do not make such laws. It is your government to blame, not the person from e.g. Marocco. Freedom of people to move is larger value than freedom of money to move or goods. So globalization should first be beneficial for the people and 2nd for companies. That is also the simple EU rule.

Now we also have global warming - caused by rich northern countries and resulting in first damages in more southern countries. How can we not help them if they have real problems, like e.g. a gay person in Morocco or just any person in Syria, who is attacked from all sides?

If immigrants work on black markets or do illegal things your police/customs/tax officers should do their job. Again blame your government if they ignore such problems - but not generally people from other countries. If you do so please also blame all Belgians for any problem caused by one single Belgian. 

But now this thread should maybe get back to problems caused by Germany, as mentioned in the title. And such problems are plentiful and often related to CO2: No other country spent that much money for such little effect. Just because we like to give the money but do not like to abstain from consumption. Please feel free to learn from our huge mistake.

14
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 22, 2019, 05:11:34 PM »
An analogy to what is going on seems to be like a DDoS

A distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack is a malicious attempt to disrupt normal traffic of a targeted server, service or network by overwhelming the target or its surrounding infrastructure with a flood of Internet traffic.

This efforts may, or may not be malicious, but the outcome is the same. It 'cools' participation by the other users in the forum.

Other users may look upon this as sniping, bullying or whining.

What it really is, is an expectation by all users to a level of moderation, and respect for the other users.

Monopolizing the forum is simply deliberate bad forum etiquette, especially if the issue has already been brought to one's attention. Linking to climate denial sites is also not appreciated.

If you can't meet that minimum, then lurk.

15
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: September 22, 2019, 02:34:43 PM »
Alexander, you could have 4 children and get the same 70,000. It doesn't have to do with being Moroccan or not, "illegal" or not. And in general I resent your racist/xenophobic undertones.

However, I do think that governments worldwide should not encourage large families (regardless whether "natives" or immigrants), as these are not sustainable on a global basis and are also a strain on a local basis. Most benefits (tax breaks, allowances) should go to the first child, which is also the most difficult to have and raise, both mentally and economically. For the second child there should be less benefits, and that's it. The benefit system that grows with each child (sometimes even more than linearly) can result in certain subcultures in a country that encourage to have more children at the public/government's expense, and over a generation these subcultures grow and have more political power thus reinforcing the benefits cycle.
In my country this is very obvious with the religious orthodox, with families that can even reach 15 children, and political power that is focused on long-term growth of the sector and maximal public money transfers. A similar situation arises with the Bedouin, where the father takes the benefits and maximizes number of children at the expense of the multiple wives (though bigamy is illegal workarounds are easily found when the subculture is so inclined). All this in a country that has one of the highest population densities in the world.
But the same logic applies in all countries - large families should be discouraged and small families of 1-2 children should be encouraged, with both economic incentives and public advisories. Most times it's also good for the country to encourage childless couples to have one child, who will probably get good attention and education.
So instead of raging against immigrants, you should lobby for making the benefits system more rational.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: September 22, 2019, 01:39:22 PM »
SATire: You don't understand what i say. Most arrive here with plenty children.
Alexander, I am German so I do understand very well what you say. It is Racism. Normally it is rated well to have many children - they can pay your social system once you are retired. But in case those children are not of "belgic blood" (does such a thing exist? you are a mixture of many people migrating there earlier)....

17
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 22, 2019, 11:06:37 AM »
.. for the last 6 years my approach to this forum was to look at the recent posts so that I can pick up on the busier threads of the day .. a 'feel' for what is happening . To have that replaced by 15 or 20 posts that read Tom Tom Tom Tom .. I just see spam spam spam spam . I see successful disruption of my ( and others ) easy ability to follow the forum . I am told it is not intentional , just a side effect of being Tom . This may be true . What if there were 30 Toms posting 30 posts a day in 30 threads . Forum death would follow . b.c.

18
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 21, 2019, 02:53:10 PM »
Well bots are basically doing things automatically at a real low level.

It is the volume and i actually advised him in a PM to just pick out the best 3 or 5 stories every day.

A lot of the stories have either been posted before sometimes just 2 posts up.
If you post links you might have the courtesy to check if they are already in the thread.

And many land in places where they are not actually on topic.

And some are low level. OK somebody has an opinion on the internet but do we need to be linked to that if they don´t offer new insights.

Then there are some questions and remarks which almost make me wonder if he actually reads the stuff or forms opinions on it.

It is very much like Obsessive-Compulsive behaviour.


19
Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: September 20, 2019, 01:25:16 AM »
Airlines' CO2 emissions rising up to 70% faster than predicted
Carbon dioxide emitted by commercial flights rose by 32% from 2013 to 2018, study shows


Quote
Researchers said the rate of growth far exceeded that used to develop projections for CO2 emissions by the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization.

The ICCT report says: “The implied annual compound growth rate of emissions, 5.7%, is 70% higher than those used to develop ICAO’s projections that CO2 emissions from international aviation will triple under business as usual by 2050.”

The total increase over the past five years was equivalent to building about 50 coal-fired power plants, the ICCT calculated. The study shows the UK is responsible for 4% of global aviation CO2 emissions, behind only the US (24%) and China (13%).

Domestic flights in the US and China account for a quarter of all aviation emissions. The US, China and EU account for 55% of all emissions.

Quote
A forecast released by Airbus on Wednesday said the number of commercial aircraft in operation would double to 48,000 planes worldwide by 2038. It predicted urbanisation and an emerging middle class would fuel rapid growth, particularly in the Asia-Pacific.

...BUT "offsets" and Technology will save us

Quote
“That is why from 2020 all growth in international aviation CO2 will be offset, reducing carbon by millions of tonnes a year. And by 2050 we aim to cut total emissions to half the 2005 level, using a combination of sustainable fuels and radical new technologies.”

The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, called on the UK aviation industry to take the lead in introducing electric flight. In a speech at Cranfield University in Bedford on Thursday, he said: “We need to get to grips with commercial aviation greenhouse gas emissions for the sake of our children and our fragile environment.”

He said aviation “supercharges our economy, drives prosperity, jobs and tourism and helps promote Britain’s interests globally … But with aviation set to grow significantly over the next three decades, largely driven by rising demand from emerging markets, particularly Asia, the Middle East and India, I want to pave the way for the transition towards commercial use of cleaner electric planes.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/19/airlines-co2-emissions-rising-up-to-70-faster-than-predicted

20
Walking the walk / Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« on: September 19, 2019, 06:37:06 PM »
 ^^^ seconded ..  b.c.

21
Walking the walk / Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« on: September 19, 2019, 05:41:57 PM »
Quote from: Tom_Mazanec
... I have used up my New York Times free articles for the month. I have to take the quote from the Daily Climate listing now.
Note to Tom:

You don't 'HAVE' to do anything.

This is a voluntary forum for scientist and citizen-scientist to share data, information, knowledge, and sometimes wisdom. It's not some OCD competition.

The object is to have more signal than noise.

Flooding the forum with 40 posts (yesterday) or 30 (the day before) does not improve the S/N ratio.

Skim less; read more.

Perhaps, distill those 40 posts to 5 that haven't already been discussed or posted by someone else.

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:18:03 PM »
I agree.  Great photo from Davos global-elite-fest last January.

Here's another.  Off-the-charts cringe.  She knows.

Thank you for posting what happens to Greta in the US. The media here don't say much about Greta in the USA.

Who ist that lady next to Greta?


Congrats you will be the first person ever on my ignore list since sometime around 2007.

i think you have nothing to offer here other than promoting the hate that divides us.

That by the way is a compliment to Neven who's super power has made this place the most trusted of all.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:02:44 PM »
Who ist that lady next to Greta?

Thank you for posting what happens to Greta in the US. The media here don't say much about Greta in the USA.

That's Jane Goodall, google everything you can find about her, adding her to your life can only make you much more optimistic about humanity.

24
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 05, 2019, 08:36:44 AM »
As practised, the tech of GMOs is intimately linked to the agriculture-industrial complex.

Look at roundup. They swore up and down roundup resistance wouldnt spread to other plants,  that roundup was totally safe ... that groundwater contamination wasnt an issue ... they lied and they lied and they lied.

And they lie and lie and lie today.
 
It ain't GMOs per se, it's that whole damn industry pushing it. As a farmer, all i got to say id screw them. I'm pushing heirlooms and land races. At least they're non patent and you can save your seeds and replant.  But it's an uphill battle.

sidd



25
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 03:21:29 AM »
President Donald Trump on the existence of Category 5 hurricanes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/sep/02/hurricane-dorian-category-5-storm-bahamas-florida-south-north-carolina-updates?page=with:block-5d6c68428f08399d62f594c7#block-5d6c68428f08399d62f594c7

Quote
... ‘I’m not sure I’ve even heard of a category 5’ says Donald Trump about Hurricane Dorian – video

... as a reminder, here are the previous times that Donald Trump has been equally surprised to learn of the existence of category 5 storms



https://mobile.twitter.com/ddale8/status/1168229088642981889

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 02, 2019, 02:22:21 AM »
Why do you keep attacking the messenger?

For someone who thinks they are a well read layperson concerning Aspergers, you really dont know much about it at all.

Let me educate you somewhat because you seem to need it.

1 - she is almost certainly disliking sitting around so many people. Why? Because several of her senses will probably be overstimulated and the most effective way to cope is to attempt to ignore them. Not easily done.

2 - as mentioned elsewhere, her diagnosis, or part of it, named one aspect where she only speaks when there is a need to speak, or when she feels like she has something to say. Personally, I am the same and in that situation in the photo, I would be doing exactly the same thing. Bored, overstimulated and having nothing to add to anything because it is already being said or I have already said it.

Also, one image says bugger all. Look at the people around her with the same look on their face? I bet most are neuro typicals, are you going to give a critical analysis on them as well?

And she is on script.
She speaks her mind.
She is consistent.
She quotes the science.

3 - Asperger's people have another quality that is lacking in neurotypical people.... it is called hyper focus. If anything, she will double down on this, not disappear. She will not stop, ever, until she feels she has resolved her own criteria for action being taken.
Trust me on this one, she is hyper focused on this. She will not simply disappear.

And stop talking about the people around her as being her handler. She is not a dog or a pet. She is a teenage woman who needs support just like any other human being. Seriously, just how much more insulting could you become?

27
I have spent more hours than I can quantify opens sourcing books at Distributed Proofreaders and Distributed Proofreaders Canada.  And I strongly believe copyright got out out of control and should not have such a long time. 

I also strongly believe that getting access to scientific papers, many prepared with tax dollars is necessary.

But this - NO.   An author wrote it and it should be bought or borrowed.  I have in past bought books I liked, read and given to the Winnipeg Library.  US, they have interlibrary loans, free, at least they did.  I can get some books free via my tiny Iowa library onto my kobo.  Explore your options. 

It looks like a lovely book.  If you feel I am wrong in my beliefs on this particular book, well I suggest binding arbitration, with the author. 

I feel no guilt with several hundred scientific articles via "the hub".  But for that book at this time, no.   

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 29, 2019, 10:30:05 PM »
Greta Thunberg made it to New York emissions-free – but the ocean doesn’t yet hold the key to low-carbon travel
https://theconversation.com/greta-thunberg-made-it-to-new-york-emissions-free-but-the-ocean-doesnt-yet-hold-the-key-to-low-carbon-travel-122518
Quote
Until then, journey time will remain the primary barrier to low-carbon ocean travel. For now, the only answer for most of us wanting to minimise our impact on the planet is to minimise how much we travel across it – especially when it comes to crossing vast expanses of water.

It wasn't really until the 1960s that the majority of the population started to consider such travel as normal. It now seems to be embedded in our culture that flying all the way to Thailand etc. from Europe of North America is something that people should do. Then of course, we have the rapidly expanding Chinese affluent looking to copy their western counterparts. I remember a documentary about a German couple attempting to be carbon neutral - giving up the annual vacation to a faraway place was the hardest thing for them.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 29, 2019, 09:53:11 PM »
ShortBrutishNasty, your post is riddled with made-up premises and wrong assumptions. It's only in your head.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 29, 2019, 07:11:07 AM »
The people here speculating about Greta being manipulated are pathetic.

If you bothered to watch her interviews and have capacity to understand peoples motives then you would know she is doing this because she believes in what she is doing and rather than being manipulated she is influencing the people around her.

I call you all pathetic because this young girl is actually making a difference and your here wining that building the yacht that she's sailing on had some carbon emissions. Really, she made the best choice she could about how to travel to the US where she probably will make even more a of an impact and all you can do is whine about this.

This seems like the denialist bullshit that doesn't gets past Neven's moderation for very long.

NevB I agree this needed to be said.  I edited this post because I was convinced by a later post that negativity doesn't belong in this forum. Greta is making a huge difference bringing forth the critical climate message that needs to be delivered to policy makers.  Greta is a bright light in the gathering darkness.  She has my full support for what she says and for her actions.  Go Greta, you go girl, go!

31
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 24, 2019, 10:11:43 AM »
Exactly!

32
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 24, 2019, 10:08:22 AM »
Yes, no left in US politics, some in labour unions, couple of democrat senators maybe. Won't invest the time to search leftish politicians in state assemblys, but pretty sure there are some. Republicans on the other hand use leftish talking points in their campaigns and promptly discard them after a possible victory.

 Sanders or Ocasio Cortes would probably feel at home on some leftish party here, but be disappointed that many of their views are already accomplished.

33
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 24, 2019, 10:03:55 AM »
We have an issue of cause and effect.  Ultimately to blame, absolutely, are the American consumers of garbage coming from the left and the right.

What you describe as the 'left' in this picture are the centrists though. There is no 'left' in the US. There is a brought political spectrum between the center and the far-left outside the US. Way more brought than the difference between centrists and far-right in the US. That's an important piece in the puzzle in this context.

Quote
Russia hit the bonanza in destabilizing America by swinging a few hundred thousand votes.  ~125k votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were the difference in the 2016 election.   Russian activities most likely created that swing and more.  There now sits an American president apparently beholden to Russia, and a Senate body that will block any action on fair elections.

Yes, this is a systemic critique and it is correct. But this is all not news. Gerrymandering, election fraud, voter purges, electoral college, etc are undemocratic measures that existed before social media trolling was a thing. America is running on ancient software. This is where you should look for answers, not in Russian basements. When the undemocratic system is fixed, sock puppet armies will do way less harm.

Quote
This is an amazing payoff for Putin.

Of course. And when it is so easy to do, think about who else is manipulating and gaslighting the public all the time? Well, everyone who has an agenda and the resources - of which there are many. Which makes the US public a playing ball of all kind of malicious player.

Quote
Can American's rise to the occasion to winnow out fact from fiction.  My observations say absolutely not. 

A modern constitution with sane 21st-century laws would help...  ;)

Germany has a great and modern constitution. In part brought to us by Americans. I think we can share it back, there should be no copyright. :)

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 05:03:34 PM »
The misconceptions involved in the question and the array of potential responses has the same relevance to anything as asking the question:

"Why do you you hope that unicorns will successfully rise up and take over Mars?"

A. "Because unicorns are fluffy descendants of wombats."
B. "Because I want to see an economic recovery in my lifetime."
C. "Because yellow is the most perfect color."

Sam

35
I think this format of articles is perfect. Title, link, short quote.
thanks for all the updates Tom.

36
Great Lake dwarfs sea-level rise. Water is up 6 feet
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1061024613
Quote
Waves crashing against the jetty at South Haven, Mich., where water levels on Lake Michigan are breaking records. Worldwide/Newscom

GRAND HAVEN, Mich. — Streets are flooded in "Coast Guard City, USA," and the maritime rescue force is responding to dangerous events not seen for decades on Lake Michigan.

Boats ramming breakwalls and other objects hidden below the lake surface. People and pets nearly swept off piers by crashing waves. Swimmers fighting riptides that have drowned 30 people so far this year. Beach walkers becoming trapped between pounding surf and cliff-like dunes.

Welcome to the nation's "Third Coast," where climate change is fueling conditions that have turned the Great Lakes into the erratic high seas of the Midwest.

37
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 22, 2019, 08:43:47 PM »
My friend Florifulgurator brought me back here, to find the same condemnatory blindness I got away from some while ago. Yes, the sins of the US and other western empire builders are manifold and disgusting, things like the second Iraq war, the replacement of Mossadegh by the Shah, the financing of Osama Bin Laden to fight the Soviets, Vietnam, and our manifold sins in Central and South America (the informative video about Central America below is created by an American; I have some personal history in that conflict; Reagan was a monster*). Lumping us all together and blaming each of us for sins we've fought to overcome is unhelpful at best.

For example, why should I hold all current citizens of Austria to blame for Hitler? Should I assume that citizens of the countries mentioned here are all collaborators? Far-right, even racist views go mainstream in Central Europe https://www.apnews.com/3861bc14ddaf46528007919491e7820a
Quote
In many places, the shift to the right has included the rehabilitation of Nazi collaborators, often fighters or groups celebrated as anti-communists or defenders of national liberation. In Hungary and Poland, governments are also eroding the independence of courts and the media, prompting human rights groups to warn that democracy is threatened in parts of a region that threw off Moscow-backed dictatorships in 1989.

Some analysts say Russia is covertly helping extremist groups in order to destabilize Western liberal democracies. While that claim is difficult to prove with concrete evidence, it’s clear that the growth of radical groups has pushed moderate conservative European parties to the right to hold onto votes.

Assuming we support and are to blame for everything that is wrong in the world may be satisfying, since I, for example, can be directly condemned and blamed, but in the larger scheme you are wasting your misdirected energy. My time is better spent working with the majority here in the US to return humanity to my country, and overcome TrumpRepublican's efforts to make hate great again. To do that, we have to get rid of vote cheating, and Putin's Russian support of Trump, McConnell, and Republican nastiness is very much a part of that problem. (McConnell is receiving direct support from Russia in several forms in his local election.)

If you would all simply put Putin and Trump together, along with all Trump's other faves, such as Kim Jong Un, MBS, Al Sisi, Duterte, Erdogan, and other conservative strongmen that he envies because they can jail, torture, and kill their opponents, you would have a better idea of the fix we're in. Those of us who prefer Elizabeth Warren or another progressive, the Squad, Greta Thunberg, and others fighting for real Democracy and equality from all points of the compass, are not helped by these single-minded condemnations.

You can hold your nose all you like, but it sure as hell is not helping action on climate change to alienate everyone who does not subscribe to your wholesale blamefest. In work to make things better, 1%, or even 10%, is not going to be enough.

Blaming those who work towards a better situation because they're not part of the 1% who demand perfection, bothsidism, abdication, and supporting factions and splinters that have no chance of effecting change, makes you "perfect" in your own eyes and those of your buddies, but it also makes you vulnerable to manipulation, which, I think, it the point some of us have tried to make here, and failed.

Here's some good ammo for your "side" - we individuals who did not support this - ever - are not the bad guys here.

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 22, 2019, 06:56:38 PM »
Why did you visit such places if they were so horrible? Resources? Curiosity? We’re you a pioneer, trailblazing through uncharted lands machete in hand or the locals showed you around? Get it? The locals?
Archi
I suspected that this was directed at me, but thought it presumptuous to reply without that being confirmed.


For 12 years the wife and I lead "expeditions" to Racetrack Playa, the dry lakebed where rocks dash about for no apparent reason.
We went on St. Patrick's Day, because the weather then is usually endurable - and Halloween, be cause it is in Death Valley you know.


3 day weekends gave us 2 nights in the desert with little other than some emaciated coyotes and a few very raggedy ravans for company. Some times there were just 4 of us, once there were 27.


The newspaper in Las Vegas got wind of our activities and wrote up a few "B" section articles. Our S. N. Mensa Chapter grew with the free publicity, and after 10+ years we believe we solved the mystery.


So curiosity is probably the answer to your first question.


We weren't pioneers in any sense of the word. We were there to solve an unsolved riddle, to gain a little local recognition for our group, to film a short documentary, and to have great stories to tell for the next 6 months.
You won't find machete wielding "locals" in the area because there have been no locals since Spanish horse thieves killed or enslaved the one family that had lived off "Hunters Trail" a little after the Spanish set up the Mission Slave Culture much closer to the coast. There are places not so far away where people had and do live, but some places just have never enticed anyone to take up residency.


We had some wonderful adventures there - but nobody even considered going when it was hot, with less than 2 spares/vehicle, or horror of horrors actually colonizing such inhospitable places.


Weekend rubbernecking can't be compared with colonising.


Will someone stay for a short period on the moon? That's not predicting the future, that's reading history. Will something similar occur on Mars - probably. Will anyone colonize either location - not in a thousand years. That's Fantasy.
Terry

39
While I have pointed this out numerous times in previous posts, the measured ocean heat content is rising faster than consensus climate scientists previously assumed; particularly in the Southern Ocean.  This confirms both that climate sensitivity is currently higher than consensus climate scientists have been assuming, and that the WAIS has a greater risk of collapse this century than previously assumed:

Title: "Ocean heat hits record high: UN"

https://phys.org/news/2019-03-ocean-high.html

Extract: ""2018 saw new records for ocean heat content in the upper 700 metres," a WMO statement said.

The agency said the UN had data for heat content in the upper 700 metres (2,290 feet) of the ocean dating back to 1955.

Last year also saw new heat records for the ocean's upper 2,000 metres, but data for that range only goes back to 2005.

The previous records for both ranges were set in 2017.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the latest findings as "another strong wake-up call" for governments, cities and businesses to take action.

"It proves what we have been saying that climate change is moving faster than our efforts to address it," he said at UN headquarters in New York.

The WMO report said the highest rates of ocean warming are occurring in the southern ocean, where warming has also reached the deepest layers."

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 22, 2019, 01:06:04 PM »
Nope. Colonization of the solar system is well within the realm of science. As proof, the ISS has been continuously occupied for decades. Space is a more inhospitable environment than mars and we can already inhabit it. The trick is that it has to be continuously resupplied.

In the same way a Mars colony would have to be continuously supplied for decades or centuries. That requires a prosperous Earth. Mars is not a life boat.

Surviving within the Earth's magnetic shielding makes survival possible on the ISS.  On the moon or Mars, people would have to live underground.  Mars soil is toxic, and the Moon has no atmosphere.  Mars doesn't have much atmosphere, either.

You're right that humans on Mars or the Moon would need regular resupply, and some urgent trips back for medical treatment.  These resupply missions would each be very expensive (hideously expensive in the case of Mars).  You're right that it might well take a century or two to be able to develop self-sustaining colonies.  Building a whole industrial civilization in those environments would take many trillions of dollars.  The earthly carbon footprint of each human in these places would probably be equivalent to a small town.  Ultimately, support from Earth will at some point falter, and the colonies will fail.

The only beings we should send should be AI-controlled autonomous robots.  They don't need air, food, water, or medical care.  Given the ravages of deep space on humans, they'd probably be more effective and versatile.  Give them a century to construct an industrial base and palatial living quarters, and then, maybe, we can send humans.

41
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 22, 2019, 10:55:26 AM »
Touching more on the acceleration of the last 50 years.  Here's BEST 1970-2019 with overlapping 30-year trends.  Each 30-year rate has been increasing starting with 1970-1999.  In order here's the rates: 1.60°C/century, 1.80°C/century & 2.00°C/century.

42
Wonderful! :)

43
I've added the quote tags for Tom.

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 08:42:04 PM »
Nope. Colonization of the solar system is well within the realm of science. As proof, the ISS has been continuously occupied for decades. Space is a more inhospitable environment than mars and we can already inhabit it. The trick is that it has to be continuously resupplied.

In the same way a Mars colony would have to be continuously supplied for decades or centuries. That requires a prosperous Earth. Mars is not a life boat.

Colonizing the solar system is not science fiction, it is destiny and our duty to life. Using space colonization as a life boat for climate change is science fiction.


Not science, or science fiction, Space colonization is Science Fantasy.

and ISS isn't a "proof of concept"


Salyut 1 - The 1st Space Station was launched in April 1971 and manned in June of that year.
SkyLab  - The 1st American Space Station launched in May 1973, and orbited until Feb 1974.
MIR - Launched in 1986 was the largest manmade object in space until it's deorbiting in 2001

The Salyut 7 module DOS-8 still orbits as a core module of the ISS.


In the first 48 years of Space Station history we've probably learned much more about how ill adapted to space humans are than how to overcome these barriers.


Terry

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 07:16:11 PM »
I am just saying...I'd rather fight it on the only habitable planet of the solar system. Some people have seen too much sci-fi....turning Mars habitable will take several hundred to a thousand years with more advanced tech than today


ie Magic!


This isn't Science, this isn't Science Fiction - this is Science Fantasy with no grounding in reality.
Terry

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 06:36:31 PM »
I am just saying...I'd rather fight it on the only habitable planet of the solar system. Some people have seen too much sci-fi....turning Mars habitable will take several hundred to a thousand years with more advanced tech than today

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 06:26:28 PM »
To people that think space is the answer, good luck with that!!

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 04:23:29 PM »
Neither  mars nor space can offer shelter. They are the next frontier. To conquer it we first must save ourselves from climate change.

If we show the discipline and technological prowess necessary to save ourselves from the mess we are in, space is the reward punishment for our past transgressions.
I made a minor alteration to your post. ;)


Having visited some of the most desiccated places on this planet, I can assure all that these places haven't remained uninhabited because we've built huge fences to keep people out. They're uninhabited because people don't want to live there.


The moon in a bubble? Mars in an artificial underground cavern? Someone at sometime might be forced to flee to such an environment, but their dreams would be filled with visions of idyllic times spent overwintering in Antarctica, summers at Furnace Creek in Death Valley, or being perched on a Himalayan peak where breathing bottled oxygen made life possible.


Space has been within our grasp for half a century, but has enticed no colonists. Even volcanic calderas seeping noxious gas would provide a better, safer and more enjoyable environment for our species.


Space Fantasies gripped the fancy of many a prepubescent male. Most outgrow such foolish notions.
Terry

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 02:39:14 PM »
There is less and less time for salvation from a global catastrophe in space shelters.

And the duration of the global catastrophe added to our inability to actually live in space means that it will never offer salvation. Let´s fix the only liveable place we have first...

50
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: August 19, 2019, 06:44:33 AM »
<snip>
Well, at least the extinction might result in less tropical foods being flown to northern cities.

Sorry to shoehorn this here to focus attention on personal carbon footprint and awareness of where your food comes from.

Stop those planes flying!  8)

By not buying anything from far away, preferably nothing from outside my country, the Netherlands, these planes don't have to transport my food all the way across the world.
I have not eaten a banana in years and I love eating them. They were my favourite fruit. You really get used to it and will adapt.
Same with apples and pears in june. Don't buy them if you're living in the NH.

@kassy
Thanks for mentioning your Sri Lanka experiences.
I guess what the article in SteveMDFP's post means is those varieties are not yet eligible for monoculture because they probably die when showered with the current biocides.
What do you think the reason is?

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