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Messages - johnm33

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Hycoms current thickness gif

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: Today at 05:05:50 PM »
"Could it be caused by waves?"
Sometimes when the sea's turbulent wave patterns show but whether they're actual waves in the ocean or concentrations of evaporation? That is I think there are waves but that's not the aspect that shows.

"My bet is on route 1, July 15 - 31."
snap, ever the pessimist

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 02:54:02 PM »
" I don't see why there couldn't be a crash in arctic ice without there being a crash in CAA ice - the reasoning eludes me."
My take is that with the CAA open the least saline, easiest to freeze fraction can flow through to Baffin forced by every tidal cycle, high pressure system etc. so in some way, blocked, it acts as a pressure regulator on the entry of Pacific/Atlantic waters. So the ice could crash but probably not a new record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 12:03:06 PM »
"The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record. "
Me too but it could be that the turbulence caused by the Atlantic waters is providing the weather system over Beaufort with it's energy, which may change the game??

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 11:24:31 AM »
Slightly disagree with Friv. there's Atlantic water penetrating the Arctic at depth along the CAA this is stirring up Beaufort 30-100-300m salinity model from Mercator, there's also some evidence of vortices moving through the basin from the buoys.

Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: Today at 12:26:13 AM »
I intend to have another look for numbers on the export of arctic waters through Davis strait, they may indicate when the amoc slows, or not? I think we agree that Hudson will grow colder as a result of increased flow and Quebec will cool as a consequence, and i've said elsewhere that cooling and increased precipitation falling on Alberta/Montana is to be expected but thats another topic.
 Looking at the increased flow through Nares and potentially the whole NWP if my present opinion has any merit then we should see +anomalous slowing of amoc later this year. 
Nice suite btw

Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: June 15, 2019, 05:46:14 PM »
Looking at this it seems a no brainer to me that if you have increased Arctic waters flowing down the coast lets say with the inherent inertia of 750N then it'll have two main effects. The first is that it will force itself into the coast, and continue to do that further south. The second is that once it is forced by Gulf stream waters away from the coast those waters will mix until equilibrium is reached slowing down the gulf stream/north atlantic drift.
What does this model show if not that?

If you open nullschool and select O from projections you'll see from 90-600N is about half of the distance of the equator from the axis of rotation and 300N about an eighth of the distance. Thus the inertia of tropical waters is too low to separate from the coast until the distance to the axis [surface speed] begins to decrease, so I would expect the highest effects of slr to be where both streams detatch and all points north, until the water reaches equilibrium with rotational speed, which may vary but just now appears to be about 52N, so peaking around 41N. Why am I wrong?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 15, 2019, 10:30:35 AM »
Hycom for the record.

 When the ice retreats to 800N there'll be no resistance to rotation, on the CAA side the channel by 110W looks primed to open.

The ice on the nw side is looking very vulnerable, small calving and some discharge into the bay on Polarview today, zoomable

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 14, 2019, 12:11:11 PM »
noctilucent cloud

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 14, 2019, 10:12:23 AM »
I used to wonder about that circular feature on north west Greenland, what's this one about?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 14, 2019, 10:08:07 AM »
"The current has stopped still"
I'm guessing but the recent low in the Arctic set against the high[er] in Baffin together with the wind is enough to slow the easiest/surface waters, there may be some effect on the deep flow, and if there is we should see some unusual warming off Banks is., but once established it takes a huge change to affect deeper currents, and my view is that it's these that drive the eddies/turbulence in Kane.
Full moon tides in a couple of days should kick start surface flow soon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 12, 2019, 04:44:46 PM »
moon, thanks uniquorn bit amateur hour but have to start somewhere.
maybe we need a pack rotation thread just to keep yours and A-Teams work easily accesible?
Just to illustrate the vortice[?] action a little, temp., opening, salinity and ice strength from Hycom

and looking at nullschool for about the same time no atmospheric cause afaics.,82.60,512/loc=-131.224,77.015
modified gif

The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: June 12, 2019, 09:57:20 AM »
You'll know it's really bad when the rich start using the clay from ancient flood defences to make bricks for their houses on high ground.

Stunning image of winds in Disko 21:00 on 11:06

but take a look at the temp. bone dry air blowing down from the ice sheet!,69.04,3000/loc=-50.551,69.151

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 11, 2019, 04:17:15 PM »
I'm thinking that Beaufort has become a killing zone for any myi that makes it past the garlic press, so given the apparent vorticity taking place there I looked at whats going on at depth in the mercator model 300m salinity

oops pressed post instead of preview,
What I think is happening is that as the surface ice/water is being pushed away by winds and the surface thrust of Amundsen tides, deeper water is being drawn into both Mclure and Amundsen, this, i think, is Atlantic waters which have been drawn along the shelf and being very kinetically uncormfortable is leading to extreme vorticity which reaches to the surface then gets caught in the gyre and moves west.

Hycom sea ice thickness above
and here is A-Teams latest Ascat, which if anything looks worse than the models.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: June 11, 2019, 02:54:51 PM »
" Any suggestions of where to see that?"
Both ice and water?

Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: June 11, 2019, 02:51:06 PM »


You guys should join the Scotch Malt Whiskey Society. Though I warn you, you'll never drink an off the shelf bottle again...
Unless you move to Constantine

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: June 09, 2019, 07:28:48 PM »
ivica Cowen is an adept, he found his own way to seeing, only realised what he'd found when he came across SMPhillips work. Probably aligns better with your interest.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: June 09, 2019, 03:43:17 PM »
"Experiments Suggest Humans Can Directly Observe the Quantum"
ivica Try SMPhillips site, a physicist who was impressed by the predictive accuracy of the theosophists once he'd learnt to interpret their work correctly, they apparently acquired the skill in weeks. Worth reading 'The secret life of nature' P Tomkins iirc too at least the electron chapter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 09, 2019, 01:34:47 PM »
The Coriolis effect causes water masses to turn to the right or go northwards on the west coast of Greenland or southwards on the east coast of Canada. The same effect works in narrow passages like the Nares strait. When water masses interact, eddies are the result.
and yet there's a deep current of Atlantic water that flows down the Greenland side, I understand this only by assuming that it retains some of the inertia that carried it eastwards to eventually pass between Iceland and Norway, Arctic waters lack that momentum and pass through on the Ellesmere side.
The image and first link are both at 100m., I'm assuming again, the higher salinity in the image as a proxy for Atlantic waters and the temp. anomaly against Greenland in north Baffin the same.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 02:36:50 PM »
3 days near Amundsen Gulf

Thanks Alphabet Hotel, I'm computer illiterate so appreciate you making it clearer.
There continues to be powerful discharge from the main branch, images from polarview 06:06 06:05

On polarview when I look at the ice north of Jakbshavn it appears to be forming waves, flowing both directly towards the coast and also south towards the fjord. where it appears to be slumping, it's not nearly as alarming when I look at Sentinel.

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: June 06, 2019, 11:20:28 AM »
Not sure what i'd call it or the apparition on it's back, doesn't look benign.

Atlantic waters are already melting out Laptev, their penetration along the shelf by CAA is complete enough to melt out the thickest ice entering the gyre. So no ice forcing it's way east meeting no ice forcing it's way west. The garlic press looks like it's going to become a waste disposal in 2-3 weeks. I voted a pessimistic under 2.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 06, 2019, 12:56:22 AM »
" Do you have the impression it increased?" Yes but by how much and whether it's temporary IDK??
" And if so, is Baffin Bay also Atlantifying?" Not sure if I'd call it that, the Atlantic water [from the north] such as it is will be diluted by meltwater from Greenland, so less saline nearer neutral kinetically and either cooling Hudson or the N.Atlantic. From the south the Irminger current will keep grinding on but it too will, probably, be held in check by increased flow from the north.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 05, 2019, 09:24:34 PM »
The salinity gif

There's more than one way to read this but my take is as stated above, Atlantic waters are now moving at depth down the west coast of Greenland speeding the melt of every glacier sitting in a deep fjord.

three more days? anything but today is a fail for me

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 04, 2019, 07:49:50 PM »
Too much gets lost when I try to make a gif so link to previous animation

try zooming in on that
and a straight temp. animation from mercator, I play this at 200ms and zoom to 170%
that's not too bad, it shows the ice forced against Ellesmere as it moves through Nares and some impression of just how much Atlantic water is forcing it's way through beneath the ice, given the huge displacement of Baffins existing ice cover. Most of Baffin/Arctic ice seems to be making it's way into Hudson, I guess the fresh melt/discharge waters are too, so a prolonged winter and cool summer for the bay.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 03, 2019, 08:46:41 PM »
This animation shows the temp. anomaly growing and moving south from Nares
Not as good as an animation, the sss from hycom

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 03, 2019, 12:46:03 PM »
The glbhycom shows it up better, the denser Atlantic water is energetically driven against the coast forcing the fresh water into central Baffin, where it joins the Arctic waters who's relative inertia keeps them to the Canadian side. The difference in density means the Atlantic waters can constantly stream into the fjords whilst the fresh-er water exits on the surface. This can only get worse through to sept.
Ignore the warning to the link, it's a US navy website best zoomed in on rather than displayed 'forum' sized

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 03, 2019, 10:43:51 AM »
I'm reading these three images as indicating the increasing penetration of Atlantic water, it has now, at depth, surrounded Greenland and most of Ellesmere. The third one shows how much it has penetrated along the CAA continental shelf. Whenever there's a tidal forcing or a low/high moves into/over the basin the deep water will wash up onto the shelf increasing bottom melt.
This will help in the opening up of the CAA to increasing ice export.
Then we have the increasing temp and melt spreading down Greenlands west coast from Nares all the way to Disko where the Irminger current brings it's own warming waters to.,71.85,1389/loc=-61.503,75.588

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 02, 2019, 10:03:31 PM »
^ Error I meant to post this which if I'm not mistaken is showing the melt taking place as deep Atlantic water is sucked into and washed out of Amundsen and Mclure. This could be good or bad since it seems the surface will be fresher for the whole gyration, but unless the outflow of Fram/Nares slow it won't matter[help].

Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« on: June 02, 2019, 09:47:03 PM »
" Salty water freezes at a lower temperature than plain water. But the ice is made of plain water, so it melts at 0 degrees Celsius. Since the ice keeps melting, but the water no longer freezes (because there is only salt water, which doesn't freeze at 0 degrees), the temperature goes down.

The heat gained by the ice as it melts is no longer offset by the heat given up by freezing water (since the water is no longer freezing back onto the ice). The heat gain has to come from somewhere else. It comes from the ice cream and your hands.

The sodium and chlorine in the salt split apart into charged ions, and these ions attract water molecules to form weak chemical bonds.

The resulting compound has a freezing point of -21.1 degrees Celsius (-5.98 degrees Fahrenheit). This is 21.1 degrees colder than ice (37.98 degrees Fahrenheit colder than ice). " from
So it seems that any windborne salt could 'suck' heat out of the wet surface layer of ice creating I presume a drop of brine at>-0C but cooling the remainder down to a possible -21C but no further effect on saltwater.

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: June 02, 2019, 09:12:27 PM »
If there's no brexit, and I don't mean this sham brexit that's been 'negotiated' then, come the next election the tories will be decimated, and the center will not hold for labour. Tribal labour voters in the north have long been held in contempt by the metropolitan labour elite and by labours remain supporters there, often quite openly, their interests have not been served for a quarter century I get the sense that they want a sea change in the status quo, and since there's nothing on offer from any party they'll vote brexit just to tip the table over and damn the consequencies. I have no insight into why tory voters overwhelmingly want out but they do, god alone knows how they'll react when they discover that during this negotiation process the command of all British forces has been handed over to the new European army without any public debate.

A slightly longer view/ smaller file.

That looks ok all images from sentinel 2-29 may

Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« on: May 29, 2019, 11:54:53 PM »
From W.Ds. blog "New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures "
So away from the shore much colder than-11C probably important.
What's the rate of sublimation from ice at various air temps.? since there can't be an energetic 'free lunch' how much impact does this have on ice formation/cooling.

Bit small, images from 9/22/27 may. 29:04 to 08:06

Looking at the northern side at/beyond the bend

more detail
Swapped animation

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: May 29, 2019, 04:32:52 PM »
I looked a little deeper, I ctrl+ this to 170% and play at 200
it seems Atlantic water has circumnavigated the Arctic at depth.

Science / Re: Solar cycle
« on: May 29, 2019, 09:49:02 AM »
"space weather" ignore the source read Nelsons work.

Science / Re: Solar cycle
« on: May 28, 2019, 11:21:11 PM »
Fascinating!  :o

BTW, Vox Mundi, thanks a lot for a constant stream of very interesting links!

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: May 28, 2019, 02:32:26 PM »
According to Tilak there was a permanent springtime climate until very recently.

polarview some changes from yesterday well worth a look difficult to be sure whats going on could be big, but could be just the quirks of angles from the radar images.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 27, 2019, 10:13:17 PM »
Looks like a surge of Pacific water came in hit the CAA around the 5-6th bounced back creating some giant internal waves, these then manifest as turbulence as they pass over the Chukchi plateau and turn north, then caught by the shear line of the deep circulation of the gyre they meet Lomonosov and incoming Atlantic stream, here the turbulence is expressed as vertical eddies, concentrating different fractions and venting vapour through any cracks, seeding meltponds with condensation.+leaving a glazed ice surface+ Thats my guess, maybe an animation of the relevent thinner ice over the bathymetry will show I'm wrong, beyond my abilities though.


Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: May 27, 2019, 12:24:32 AM »
The only defence I have aganst slugs/snails is pellets which are placed under some old guttering either side of the row, no access for birds or frogs. Most years it's taken three plantings to get ahead this year's 1st looking good so far.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 27, 2019, 12:18:18 AM »
Glen you could start here it's a model thats quite useful. The 'hole' for instance is close to where the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific waters may be interacting as they cross Lomonosov causing turbulence.

The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: May 26, 2019, 10:02:32 PM »
Similar customs to potlach were extant in PNG, it's difficult to claim understanding of these things but I have the impression that it was more or less competitive generosity. iirc 'ongas big moka'
......more thoughts, since the practice was similar throughout the clans a whole network of mutual obligation developed.

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