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Messages - johnm33

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Tides
« on: April 04, 2020, 04:01:35 PM »
Interesting post here suggesting tidal forces may lift water over the mid atlantic ridge, https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2022.msg123120.html#msg123120
and another here which may explain some of the 'pull' mentioned above[the vid]. https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1755.msg199444.html#msg199444

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Tides
« on: April 03, 2020, 11:27:49 PM »
This is my take on tidal effects on the Arctic, i'm no expert this is just what i think i'm looking at on the various models and images available to us all. I'll start at the ridge between Scotland and Iceland. For about 13hrs. a day tides lift water over the Faroes ridge into the Norwegian/Greenland seas, the sea height rises by 40-60cm depending on the tidal cycle, so I'm guessing that at the lower end that amounts to a volume of about 20cm over the whole area and nearer 30cm at peaks and this volume delivered twice[almost] a day. Once the tidal forcing stops the residual current continues, this makes it difficult for the same body of water to recycle south. In fact this water coming from the south has inherent energy/inertia exceeding the Earths surface rotational speed here and it is thus pressed against the west coast of Norway, so a different source is needed for the water flowing south, this comes from both energetically depleted water that has circled N/G seas and from an induced flow out through Fram. The inducement is the steady flow through Denmark strait where the biggest waterfall in the world drops basal waters into the N. Atlantic.
From 60oN the northbound flows own movement adds to it's relative inertia, since from here it more or less approaches the axis of rotation directly and the planets tangential surface speed diminishes rapidly. This gives it the momentum to scale the Barentz shelf or to penetrate Fram and deliver Atlantic water as deep into the Arctic as energy permits. Since the loss of sea ice in Barentz, which acted like a baffle in a silencer, or leaves on traffic noise, and caused a chaos of churning which inhibited flow, the tidal surge penetrates further, followed at a more sedate pace by actual A.W. which melts more ice rinse repeat. Then on the coat tails of the tidal surge slowly a residual current builds and becomes established. Note that the tidal surge is going the 'wrong' way due to it's inherent inertia so at some point as Chukchi/ESS and Laptev shed ice there'll be a counter surge building up on the Pacific side which cause a turbulent halt, some melt, then at equilibrium these waters will move gently towards the pole/Fram, as they are replaced.
For me the 'tidal' movement of the ice is a consequence of this penetration which in turn depends on both tidal cycle forcings and atmospheric pressure in that if the mslp is low in both the Norwegian sea and Barentz south of Svalbard then the effect is maximised but even then depends on pressures over the basins. Clearly the more water that enters from these forcings the more has to flow out through Fram, and to a lesser degree Nares, both of which act in some way as flywheels in the system, evening out flows, naturally as the 'flywheels' speed up they will create deficits enhancing inflows from both the Atlantic and Pacific sides.

There's an illustration of tidal forcings on page 12 of this, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008JC004941
This animation suggests a rotating wave around the amphidromic point south of Greenland, i'm thinking that beyond and past Iceland different bodies of water are on the move.


3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 01, 2020, 10:24:58 AM »
'Tides' I'm busy but I'll make my case later on unsorted.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 31, 2020, 11:43:36 PM »
Thanks uniquorn, I guess we'll all see what we want, for me what's most striking is the apparent direct movement from Bering to Fram in 3 of the last 4 years with this year clearly the most pronounced. We're half-way between peak tides so i'm wondering if the full moon tides around the 8th accelerate or punctuate it, all down to atmospherics for now.
Looking at the ice face-ing N.A. and the fancy hair, maybe this should be in pareidolia too?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 29, 2020, 05:59:57 PM »
It looks to me like the whole top 75m[?] of the ocean is moving in concert very slowly toward/out of Fram, at least in that quarter of the Arctic. There's water being drawn in from the Pacific whether it's related or not, and the ice there seems to be outpacing the water for now. So a huge amount of turbulence coming, and then it looks like there could be a big storm in a few [3-5]days not a promising start.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 11:15:21 AM »
Mortality monitoring in Europe, http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

7
First signs of movement on Polarview or just the angle of the shot?

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 27, 2020, 10:31:02 AM »
I wonder if the accelerated losses pushing 2020 into second place are to do with tidal forcings around the near equinox new moon. I've looked for years for convincing evidence of tidal action on flows through Fram and Nares and although it's still ambiguous this is the first year there's any real sign of effects/influence on sea ice movement.
Looking at the thick ice west of CAA it always seems it should be more free flowing through the channels, once they clear, but the action around Mosaic indicates that the ice acts in synchrony with it's 'captive' still water directly beneath it which may add a couple of oom to it's inertial mass and thus it's the water beneath the shear line that moves through the channels, i think. If the gyre fires up and begins to cycle the thick ice through to Chukchi we may see only thin ice in this area, so substantially less mass to get moving and potentially much greater losses from the freshwater lens.

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 03:11:49 PM »
Milan and Turin have some of the worst air quality in Europe, much worse than London imho, and you have to drive to the end of the M11[@90Km] to get out of the filth cloud that hangs over London. If you've lived and worked there, N. Italy, in an industrial area you will have issues with your lungs as you grow old, similar in Chinese mega-cities, in Iran many older men have were exposed to nerve gas to some degree. Virus' according to my understanding prefer dis-eased/malfunctioning cells, maybe because these cells overreact to growth hormone surges initiated by adreniline release or because some malfunctioning cells respond to insulin as if it's a growth hormone leading to 'population' explosions of virus'.

10
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 23, 2020, 07:58:06 PM »
"but who gets the money?" My guess is the bankers just in time to snap up all the assets sold off in fire sales.

12
Significant outburst of fresh water into Disko, too cloudy to say if a calving took place.

13
May 25th , can't remember when I last guessed right.

14
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: March 16, 2020, 11:27:21 AM »
I read through this linked by uniquorn on the freezing thread, about the cooling of Barents, I wonder if there's any assessment of volume. That is I would assume that the current that rises off the west coast of Africa to become the ocean stream into the Caribean and then the Gulf stream continues to deliver about the same amount of source water. Then the gulf stream meets and mixes with arctic waters coming through Fram/Nares/CAA and meltwater off Greenland, and it's the relative inertia of this arctic water that slows down the current, so I'm thinking that the volume of water passing through the Norwegian sea would increase, be cooler, cool less due to a smaller temperature gradient, then pass on into the Arctic carrying more heat further and accelerating this process.[?]

15
The rest / Re: A must read
« on: March 15, 2020, 09:21:25 PM »
Michael Hudson with Ellen Brown on the urgent need for a public banking sector.
https://michael-hudson.com/2020/03/the-importance-of-neighborhood-banks/
a transcript of this conversation
" For the stock market’s Dow Jones average, they’ll contract to buy all its stocks or those in the S&P 500 in one month, or one week or whatever the timeframe is, for X amount – say, 2% over what they’re selling today. Well, once the plunge protection team issues a guarantee to buy, the market is going to raise the bid prices for these stocks up to what the Fed and the Treasury have promised to pay for them. By the time the prices go up, the Fed doesn’t actually have to buy these stocks, because everybody’s anticipated that the Fed would buy them at this 2 percent gain. So it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. "

16
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 13, 2020, 11:26:27 AM »
"Hyperinflation" For as long as $ remains the international means of exchange all that needs to be done is to create a demand for it, and to cause widespread destruction is a fine way to accomplish that, plus of course the rich must spend and consume like there's no tomorrow whilst keeping the poor starved of cash. Then there will always be enough demand [for money] and no oversupply of it for goods, just ever increasing asset values and poverty. A sort of sunlit version of hell.

17
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 13, 2020, 09:46:17 AM »
"Central banks are out of ammo" They're never out of ammo, they can print to infinity or press a few keys to create fiat fortunes, the problem is that they are only concerned with making the banks whole, and the banks are blindly competing to hollow out their economies, what could go wrong?

18
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 10, 2020, 10:22:21 AM »
Well Russia as a defender of free market capitalism, who'd a thunk it? Their costs are about $7pb but need a price around $20 for long term sustainability, S.A. costs are around $3pb but need about $85pb for their quota to sustain their luxury socialist welfare state, they simply don't have the capacity to cover these costs at lower prices, frackers need $50 to break even $60pb to meet debt obligations.  At $20pb demand for dollars would crash, meanwhile reserves held in treasuries would have to be liquidated, what could go wrong?

19
This may be of interest https://aureon.ca/
"The model offers a key premise and makes a number of predictions. Using this premise the SAFIRE team designed and built a proof-of-concept bell-jar reactor and then a larger 44,000 part reactor. Both reactors were fired up and running as predicted within minutes of construction completion.

Many experiments were run. The model was thoroughly tested and revealed itself to be both viable and powerful. Everything predicted proved accurate. Even the numerous unexpected discoveries fit the model."

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 29, 2020, 12:40:56 PM »
"ice north of Greenland" With persistent lows over Barents the tidally enhanced flow into the arctic would increase, some water has to leave, i guess the shear zone is quite shallow and everything above it is moving towards Fram, hence the unusual size of the area on the move. The more or less persistent high[mslp] on the Beaufort side would add to the impetus. It's hard to establish any current but once established a 'slime effect' come into play and until some other random event disturbs the flow it'll persist. If Wayne at eh2r is right we may be stuck with this weather pattern for some time, so the loss of ice may begin to define the season.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Concrete - CO2 Villain or Solution?
« on: February 23, 2020, 10:44:47 AM »

22
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: February 22, 2020, 02:56:48 AM »
PS thanks for the clarification, copied animation to giphy nullschool/Kaleschke
Whats the source for Kaleschke?

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: February 21, 2020, 04:30:51 PM »
OT yes I was hesitant,  but without a more or less stationary PS it looks like the ice is moving, whereas it's stillness suggests waves moving beneath the ice.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: February 20, 2020, 11:32:20 PM »
I find it particularly interesting that the leads and apparent wave structures move through the ice rather than with it, the PS' slow progress is the best indication of this I've seen. The emergent double features indicates an acceleration?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2020, 01:21:09 PM »
I'll take a punt, stall/small drop for a couple of days, then steeper drop for another couple, likely into new territory [on G's graph]  then accelerated drop which will either go into overdrive or halt and reverse dependent on whether the low moves over the deep [St. Anna/Nansen] or heads south over Siberia.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 14, 2020, 11:21:27 AM »

Looking at Nullschool  suggests that a combination of high pressure and low tides were contributing to a rush for the exits.

27
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 31, 2020, 03:35:14 PM »
An analysis of the recent Iranian response to the hit on their General, or at least the first and fully signalled response.
"The military implication – and this is truly “strategic” level – is that the U.S. will never again be able to move its army or air force into position in the Middle East, to stage another war such as invading Iraq in 1991 and later in 2003.

Every runway, every hangar, every airplane, every tank, every truck, every tent, every outhouse is now at risk. And every naval pier – and refueling or re-arming site – is also at risk; because even ships tied to a pier (or anchored out!) can be targeted exactly."
 https://stpaulresearch.com/2020/01/11/the-real-target-of-irans-missiles-revealed-hint-it-was-a-direct-hit/

28
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: January 31, 2020, 11:17:16 AM »

from https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/01/29/a-new-form-of-auroras-the-dunes/
I'm struck by the similarity between wave behaviour in the ocean and em generally, here the dunes look like overturning waves orthogonal to the incoming Birkland(?) current.
^275^sun the safire project has recently been working on a lab simulation of these forms, an experiment not a modelled simulation.

29
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 30, 2020, 08:29:53 PM »
The fed handing over $2.5m per.sec. during work hours to save wall st.
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/fed-repos-have-plowed-6-6-trillion-to-wall-street-in-four-months-thats-34-of-its-feeding-tube-during-epic-financial-crash/
"According to the data made available on the public website of the New York Fed, since September 17, 2019 it has funneled a cumulative total of $6.6 trillion to some of  the 24 trading houses on Wall Street that are known as its “primary dealers.” The giant sum has been sluiced to Wall Street in the form of repurchase agreement (repo) loans without any details being provided to the elected representatives in Congress as to which firms are getting the money or what it’s being ultimately used for. But since the stock market has set repeated new highs since the program launched, some veteran market watchers believe the Fed is fueling a Ponzi-like rally in stocks."

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 28, 2020, 03:44:52 PM »
I'll take a punt at this

20m suggests inhibited turbulence above that so average ice depth 2-3m, let's guess 0-5m with ridges and leads. So plenty of freezing and salt being excluded by the ice formation, the denser water it takes down is at -1.8. below 20m turbulence increases and temp rises. Suggests flow beneath the ice and the alignment of features suggests waves?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:48:22 PM »
Worth the read. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JC010310
"We conclude that tidal shear stresses at the bottom and the ice‐ocean interface facilitate the transport of warmer and saltier AW to the surface layers, while the effects of tides along the Siberian shelf result in mixing of fresh river runoff waters with saltier water below the eroding halocline. Mixed layers, being much thicker due to the effects of the critical latitude on the clockwise component of tidal currents, entrain saltier waters to the surface boundary layers. Along the Siberian coast with strong river runoff, thicker boundary layers result in mixing in halocline and penetration of freshened waters to depth. Finally we find that, in this particular model, tides are responsible for ∼15% of the ice volume reduction and the presence of more salt waters at the surface in average by ∼1–1.7 PSU (Figure 14). Tides significantly modify the freshwater pathways along the Siberian shelf, resulting in saltier water along the Greenland coast. Tides affect the fresh water and heat content in the AO, with a reduction in the former by 7% in the upper 100 m"

32
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: January 25, 2020, 03:17:03 PM »
nanning are there large greenhouses anywhere upwind of your location, does it get worse when/after the sun shines, are they heated? You could try using one of those activated charcoal masks urban cyclists use, otherwise your prolonged depleted state of vitamin D may indicate problems with myelin sheathing and/or gut biome so maybe the supplements would be a good idea, what about B12 levels?. 

33
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 22, 2020, 12:17:59 AM »
"Central bankers and their cohorts manipulate economic data and promote the false notion of a boom before almost every major crash because they WANT to ambush the populace. They WANT to create panic, and then use it to their advantage as they rebuild and mutate the system into something unrecognizable only decades ago. Each consecutive crash contributes to the collapse of the whole, until eventually the society we once had is barely a distant memory."
http://www.alt-market.com/index.php/articles/4049-how-long-will-it-take-for-the-us-to-collapse
usa is to empire as luca brasi was to the corleone family

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:39:00 PM »
"Any Ideas?" Powerful low on 1st 963 twixt FJL/NZ would have 'called' for water from all quarters, did PS shift?, the high over the Canadian basin side would have 'pressed' some less saline cooler water over Lomonosov, near to but not at the surface, the coarse ice underside creating a stable zone with a sheer close below, may also have halted flow at depth down St. Anna trough?

35
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:05:41 AM »
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts what it says in the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzX5GXc4HhQ&feature=youtu.be 9mins on the long fight against financialisation of politics took me 3 times to get it, if indeed I did.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 18, 2020, 10:24:27 PM »
"so would require a mechanism to mix with colder surface water" yes what I'm suggesting is that internal waves possibly generated by A.W. entering the basin as tidal surges, are travelling to Laptev and back towards Greenland are in turn generating orthogonal waves which are dashed against the bathymetry at depth, both north of Svalbard and at inconsistences in the gradients of the troughs and where the troughs terminate beneath Barentz. It's clearer in your 'season' thread animation though without the cloud streets suggesting extreme 'spin' I'd probably think simple wind action the likeliest explanation.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 17, 2020, 05:30:21 PM »
Link Taken together the cloud streets and the break aligned with the islands suggest internal waves propagated in the basins are forcing orthogonal waves south and these are disturbing the ice as they wash up the contours.
Rebound, again suggests huge amount of activity at depth, at least some of which must be A.W forced into the basin by tides judging by Hycoms salinity gif.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: January 15, 2020, 03:02:31 PM »
"Swirl" Thats interesting, got a lat/long for it?

40
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 12, 2020, 10:30:39 AM »
Here Gordon Duff [VT] suggests the accuracy of Irans weapons gave Trump pause, https://journal-neo.org/2020/01/11/new-facts-change-everything-the-sickening-truth-about-why-iran-schooled-america/
"Similarly, when missiles plowed into the “consular” facilities, really weapons warehouses, at Erbil International Airport, in the Kurdish region of Northern Iraq, the US denied any hits claiming to have shot down two of three missiles and the other a “wide miss.”

Then, as is so often the case, American military personnel billeted in the apartment buildings just south of the facility uploaded their video to YouTube.

Three missiles, thee direct hits, dramatic explosions, which the Americans seemed to enjoy immensely"

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Null School Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
« on: January 05, 2020, 12:06:07 PM »
Waves, step back
anomalies have moved

43
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 23, 2019, 11:23:44 PM »
Iirc it was Gurdgieff who introduced me to the idea that the long verse narratives that were plied as a trade by professional storytellers were actually a means of transmitting huge amounts of information through the generations without the storyteller having to know what he was transmitting. I sort of got it but 'Homers secret Iliad' demonstrated that i really hadn't, my guess is that 'Homer' was the joint work of the enslaved Troian bards preserving their culture and history for posterity, so perhaps as close as anything to a western tradition of 'Druidism' we have.
Here's Ceasars take on the Druids and a critique that seems even handed to me, from the Barddas.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 22, 2019, 01:05:56 PM »
thanks bl.
Now imagine there's a surface current moving in the same direction as the wave, then think that after say 10,000years of repetitions [@6.5million] that very wave action caused the current. Didn't read this anywhere so no links but noticed whilst trying to figure out tidal action in Baffin that the currents tended to follow the tidal path, then looked around and saw that this was generally the case, so I supposed currents are residuals of tides, reinforced by inertially driven movements of waters as they move closer to/further from the equator, eventually taking on 'a life of their own'. A process in it's infancy in the Arctic.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 10:51:30 PM »
Animation with the full moon around the 9th
So what I'm suggesting is that without ice there's nothing to inhibit the lateral flow of tidal surges onto the Barentz shelf, that water having come from due south[+/-] is moving faster than the earths tangential surface speed so once on the shelf very little returns the same way, instead it flows into the basins and points east. That in turn forces deeper water to flow out through Fram, to a similar magnitude. The tidal inflow is periodic and variable but the outflow tends to be self similar and I suspect acts like a flywheel in that it will continue to pass water south despite tidal forcings. In this way Atlantification accelerates.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 10:34:32 PM »
Currents Tides compare. Brief, 5 pages

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 12:19:37 AM »
Is something new happening?
I think it's just the result of Atlantification, and that that took off with the loss of cover over Barentz. The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water. The tidal inflows always take the path of least resistance, which remains variable and thus opaque, the outflows are at depth in Fram, Nares and through the CAA plus the surface ice lost through Fram and a little via Nares.
Previously the surface water flows were inhibited/calmed/baffled by the complex geometry of submerged ice, fixed and landlocked, now the ice moves perforce with near surface currents. Thats to say that there's a substantial difference in energy loss between inducing waves in deeper denser water than in moving ice through air. If, as i assume, the ice presents little resistance to surface currents then all the energy that would have been consumed/lost at the deeper interface with denser water now goes into moving the ice. 
Looking at the recent movent/schism by Mosaic for instance, my guess would be that tidal forces induced a flow of Atlantic waters to pass east beneath the spreading Pacific waters and drop over Lomonosov into the deep, were the ice thick enough that would have passed unseen/unimagined.

48
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: December 14, 2019, 05:56:19 PM »
I can't help but think that had they only known about the heliospheric current sheet when founding the model for galaxies they may have elected for a more electrifying  design. That would be something like, oppositely charged plasma is ejected, in two streams, directly away from a rapidly spinning 'plasmoid' and continues on it's path contained by its self generated charge field, only slowing into apparent orbit once it coalesces and achieves a certain level of negative charge relative to it's containment 'arm'. Of course this would mean the search for dark matter has been and will remain a waste of resources.

49
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: December 13, 2019, 07:22:11 PM »
Labour promised their northern 'tribal' vote more of the same, well they've had that for over a generation and they're not mad or stupid enough to think more of the same is going to stop the decline in their prosperity or reduce the rate of moral decay around them. So this I guess is just a kick in the nuts for the incumbents. A couple of decent reads to embellish silkmans words, an analysis which seems even handed to me, and some thoughts from Craig Murray always worth reading.

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