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Messages - bligh8

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1
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: September 17, 2019, 11:44:07 PM »
 Oren.....Yea, that's me so engrossed in the article I often forget to include the "link".

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2019-05-09-houston-americas-flood-capital

Hurricane Harvey
Harvey was the most widespread and extreme rainfall event from any tropical depression, storm or hurricane in U.S. history dating to the late 19th century.
(MORE: Full Harvey Recap | 3 Highest-Volume U.S. Rain Events Happened From 2016-2018)
After landfalling at Category 4 intensity along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, Harvey's agonizingly slow crawl produced up to 60 inches of rain in a pair of locations near Beaumont and Port Arthur in late August 2017.
Virtually the entire Houston metro area picked up at least 20 inches of rain, with some totals exceeding 40 inches. The total area covered by the 20-inch Harvey swath in east Texas and Louisiana was estimated to be almost the size of South Carolina.

Thanks

bligh

2
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: September 17, 2019, 11:32:51 PM »
Thanks ;)  I fear for these lovely creatures....

3
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: September 17, 2019, 10:25:25 PM »
Is Houston America's Flood Capital?

According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, there were 96 days with at least one report of flooding or flash flooding in Harris County from 1996 through 2015. This equates to an average of four to five days of flooding each year over that time period.
Of course, not all of these flood events are as severe as April 2016, Memorial Day 2015, or Allison in 2001. The fact that flooding happens with such regularity most years in an area just slightly larger than the state of Rhode Island is quite impressive.

There have been at least 26 events that flooded homes in the Houston metro area since the mid-1970s, according to Houston-based Weather Research Center (WRC) and National Weather Service records. WRC documented area floods, some related to tropical cyclones, back to 1837, the year after the city was founded.
These events have happened every time of the year, even in late fall and winter.
Apart from the prodigious rainfall from tropical cyclones and their remnants, thunderstorms and thunderstorm clusters tend to slow and stall near the Gulf Coast, especially from late spring through early fall.
There's also Houston's geography and method of flood control.
"We now force rainwater into streets, and then into bayous, which flush out to Galveston Bay and the Gulf (of Mexico)," said Matt Lanza, an operational meteorologist in energy based in Houston.
Lanza says the streets, therefore, are part of the flood control system. "It's a good idea in theory because you'd rather flood roads and cars than houses. But I'm not sure any method of flood protection can prevent what unfolded over us in April 2016."
Then, there's Houston's notorious urban sprawl.

"The population has exploded here in the last 10 years, much of it settling north and west of the city," said Lanza.

"What was once farm or wetlands is now pavement and suburbia. Thus, there is less barren land to suck up the rain now, and that further exacerbates flooding."
Houston also sits only about 43 feet above sea level, so the flat system of bayous drains very slowly.

As severe as recent flood events were, imagine what happens when a tropical storm moves inland, its remnants stall, then move back over the Houston metro area.



TROPICAL STORM ALLISON (2001)
U.S. Highway 59 in Houston, Texas, remained flooded on June 10, 2001, due to rain from Tropical
 
Such was the case with Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.
An initial soaking as Allison moved ashore on June 5-6 was followed by a second epic deluge after Allison's remnant moved off the Texas coast on June 8-9.
By the time the rains ended, parts of the Houston metro area had picked up more than 35 inches of rainfall over the five-day period, much of which fell during that second round. This is roughly three-quarters of the average annual rainfall in just five days.
Furthermore, Allison's torrential rain – 10 inches or more –  was much more widespread over the Houston metro, not to mention east Texas and the northern Gulf Coast (map), than the Memorial Day event of 2015.
More than 14,000 homes were destroyed or heavily damaged, with an additional 34,000 homes suffering at least minor damage, according to the National Hurricane Center's recap.
Total damage from Allison was estimated at $9 billion, easily the costliest tropical cyclone that never became a hurricane in U.S. history. Allison claimed 23 lives in Texas and became the first non-hurricane to have its name retired by the World Meteorological Organization.
Here are a few bayou crests in Harris County from the Memorial Day event, compared to Allison and other events.
Buffalo Bayou at Shepherd Drive (west of downtown Houston; flood stage is 28 feet):

Brays Bayou at Beltway 8 (southwest Harris County; top of bank is 64.2 feet):
Memorial Day 2015 crest: 65.91 feet
Hurricane Ike 2008 crest: 58.7 feet
This Memorial Day event was near the September 1983 flood of record along middle and upper Brays Bayou, per the Harris County Flood Control District.
Greens Bayou at Shepherd Drive (outside Interstate 610 loop northeast of downtown Houston; flood stage is 30 feet):
Memorial Day 2015 crest: 34.02 feet
Hurricane Ike 2008 crest: 36.24 feet
Allison 2001 crest: 44.01 feet (the record crest)

More within the article

Todays events in Huston


4
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: September 17, 2019, 08:29:55 PM »
Emperors on thin ice: three years of breeding failure at Halley Bay

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antarctic-science/article/emperors-on-thin-ice-three-years-of-breeding-failure-at-halley-bay/4CA1A77971A4CD5D5CB823EBF338FAA9/core-reader


Abstract

Satellite imagery is used to show that the world's second largest emperor penguin colony, at Halley Bay, has suffered three years of almost total breeding failure. Although, like all emperor colonies, there has been large inter-annual variability in the breeding success at this site, the prolonged period of failure is unprecedented in the historical record. The observed events followed the early breakup of the fast ice in the ice creeks that the birds habitually used for breeding. The initial breakup was associated with a particularly stormy period in September 2015, which corresponded with the strongest El Niño in over 60 years, strong winds, and a record low sea-ice year locally. Conditions have not recovered in the two years since. Meanwhile, during the same three-year period, the nearby Dawson-Lambton colony, 55 km to the south, has seen a more than tenfold increase in penguin numbers. The authors associate this with immigration from the birds previously breeding at Halley Bay. Studying this ‘tale of two cities’ provides valuable information relevant to modelling penguin movement under future climate change scenarios.

Introduction
The emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri Gray) colony at Halley Bay (75°33′S, 27°32′W) was one of the largest colonies in Antarctica, second only in size to that at Coulman Island in the Ross Sea (Fretwell et al. 2012). The colony is located on the northern side of the Brunt Ice Shelf (Fig. 1) and, for the past two decades, has been situated in a bay, locally named ‘Windy Creek’. Although no organized science has been conducted on the colony, it has been visited by staff from the Halley Research Station sporadically from 1956–2012 and estimates of size vary between approximately 14 300–23 000 pairs (Woehler 1993, British Antarctic Survey (BAS) unpublished data, H.J. Gillett personal communication 2018). It is likely that the colony is associated with foraging on the shallow McDonald Bank and McDonald Ice rumples, to the north and east of the site and the coastal polynya that forms north of the Brunt Ice shelf each summer season (Hodgson et al. 2018). Although this polynya is a consistent feature, the sheltered bays bordering the ice shelf usually retain fast ice until December and often the ice remains all summer. This ensures that emperors are able to raise their chicks at the site as their young fledge between mid-December and early January.


Fig. 1. Overview of the Brunt Ice Shelf, showing the location of Halley Bay and Dawson-Lambton emperor penguin colonies. The underlying image is a Landsat8 image from October 2016.

Although the recorded population has varied, the colony is consistently the largest in the Weddell Sea, over twice the size of any other colony in the region. There have been no previously recorded instances of total breeding failure at the site. It possibly represents 6.5–8.5% of the total global population and, as it is situated at high latitudes, it plausibly represents an important climate change refugia (Ainley et al. 2010, Jenouvrier et al. 2017).
The nearest colony to the Halley site is the Dawson-Lambton colony, some 55 km to the south, located where the Brunt Ice Shelf joins the continental coast (Fig. 1). Geographically this is an unusually small distance between emperor colonies (Ancel et al. 2017). Only the Mertz Ice Shelf colonies have a smaller distance between them, and these two colonies originated from a single site before the recent calving of the Mertz Ice Tongue in 2010 (Ancel et al. 2014).
However, recent monitoring has shown that the Halley Bay colony has suffered catastrophic breeding failure, whilst the nearby Dawson-Lambton colony has markedly increased in size. In this paper very high resolution (VHR) satellite imagery is used to estimate population changes at the two sites over the last ten years.

The exact number is difficult to estimate due to the rough ice surface confusing the automated image analysis. The best estimate is that around five times more birds were at, or within ~100 m of the sea-ice edge than at the main colony site. Many of the penguins were on refrozen brash ice or newly formed grease ice. This does not include the lines of birds moving between the colony site and the ice edge, which can easily be identified as birds in transit. Emperors do not breed or habitually feed their young at the ice edge as its position is dynamic and the high risk of breakup would pose a danger to unfledged chicks. Whether the adult birds here were failed breeders or non-breeders is difficult to assess from imagery alone. Subsequent Landsat8 and Sentinel2 imagery shows that by 29 November 2018, all of the fast ice on the north side of the Brunt Ice Shelf had gone, highlighting a third year of probable total breeding failure. These assumed failed breeding events are of a scale that is not apparent in the long, but sporadic record from the site (H.J. Gillett personal communication 2018, BAS records).


Fig. 2. Variability in the emperor penguin population breeding at Windy Creek, Halley Bay (solid line), and Dawson-Lambton colony (dashed line). Estimates made from very high resolution satellite imagery following the methods of Fretwell et al. (2012); upper and lower 95% confidence intervals are shown.

Understanding how environmental drivers, such as changes in SAM, sea ice, or wind speed, direction and velocity, impact upon the breeding colony at Halley, or indeed elsewhere, remains a key challenge. Further, exploring how extremes of such events lead to breeding failure is vital for projecting future population trajectories in a warming environment. The relationship between climate change and El Niño events, or positive SAM anomalies is still a matter of active research (Trenberth & Hoar 1997, Turner 2004, Turner et al. 2005, Yeh et al. 2009, Collins et al. 2010, Bracegirdle 2013, Cai et al. 2015). Recent research suggests that the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events are predicted to increase, while ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are also likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse gas emissions (Cai et al. 2015). However, other evidence cautions that it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change (Collins et al. 2010). The evidence from observations of the present authors, and from earlier papers (Kooyman et al. 2007, Ancel et al. 2014), points to the fact that stochastic impacts upon emperors may be vital, even for high-latitude locations. Strong winds, or storm events can create coastal leads or polynyas that are beneficial to foraging, but prolonged periods of extreme winds can also lead to breakup and dissipation of fast ice, which can cause total breeding failure when it occurs at a sensitive time for the penguins.
At Halley, another important factor influencing the stability of the fast ice around the colony could be the dynamic nature of the creek in which it is located. Until recently, the colony was situated within a sheltered ice creek, on the northern side of the Brunt Ice Shelf, informally named Windy Creek. Over the past 60 years, the colony has occasionally moved to other adjacent sheltered creeks (H.J. Gillett personal communication 2018, BAS records). With the fast-ice breakout in 2016, ice shelf morphology changed (Fig. 3) and the resulting more open nature of the creek may now be less suitable for fast-ice retention. The Brunt Ice Shelf is a fast-moving and dynamic environment (Hodgson et al. 2018). Over the last two decades the creek has gradually moved westwards by over 600 m per year and it is possible that the migration and changing topography of Windy Creek has made it a less favourable site for emperor penguins. Any future breeding at Halley will almost certainly depend upon the juxtaposition of sheltered, stable fast ice, foraging opportunities, including over the nearby McDonald Bank, and the longer-term processes that will happen once the Brunt Ice Shelf calves, which at present rates will be within the next two years.


Fig. 3. Medium resolution satellite imagery of the Windy Creek breeding site for the years between spring 2015 and spring 2018.

Conclusion
The authors describe an unprecedented three-year period of breeding failure at the large Halley Bay emperor penguin colony. They link this to a dramatic rise in the population of the nearby Dawson-Lambton colony, a rise that can only have occurred due to immigration from Halley. These changes have been driven by a change in sea-ice conditions and early breakup of fast ice on the northern side of the Brunt Ice Shelf, which may be due to ENSO events and/or ice-shelf morphology.
In a warming world, it will be crucial to better understand the interplay between wind and ice shelf orography, and to appreciate how these factors impact the location of emperor penguin colonies. Understanding how emperor penguins react to catastrophic sea-ice loss will be of crucial importance if one is to predict the fate of the species over coming decades.

bligh


5
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 17, 2019, 06:11:43 PM »
Brands Including Lush, Patagonia, and Outdoor Voices Are Joining Greta Thunberg in the Climate Strike 2019

Select quotes 

If you're joining the worldwide Climate Strike, which kicks off on September 20, some of your favorite brands and retailers may be striking right alongside you. The strike, which begins three days before the UN Climate Summit, is meant to call attention to the climate crisis and "demand climate justice for everyone." The Climate Strike will be taking place all over the world throughout the week and is led by inspiring young activists like Greta Thunberg who are concerned about the future of our environment.

Fast Company reports that Ben and Jerry's ice cream shops and their corporate office will be closed during the strike so their employees can join in, while Lush is temporarily closing its 250 stores in the United States and Canada in solidarity.

Patagonia wrote about the strike and the young activists leading the charge on its blog, The Cleanest Line. "The great climate strike that will take place around the world this Friday has its roots in the efforts of junior high and high school students, with more than a few elementary school students thrown in," wrote environmentalist and author Bill McKibben. "I’ve gotten to know many of them—not just Greta Thunberg, but also the young people on every continent who are carrying out the same noble work

Dozens of other brands are participating in the strikes, including Dr. Bronner's, Eileen Fisher, Opening Ceremony, Outdoor Voices, Seventh Generation, and Thinx, according to Fast Company. And the strike isn't limited to clothing stores and brands; digital companies like Tumblr and Imgur are participating too.

https://www.teenvogue.com/story/brands-joining-greta-thunberg-climate-strike-2019

bligh


6
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 10, 2019, 09:06:57 PM »

"We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink."

Stop burning natural gas .. all of it! There's your engineered collapse, let the cards fall where they
will.

"I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie."

Did you take the red or blue pill, but a bit more serious....I'm with ya that one.

bligh 

7
Observations of surface mass balance on Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, and the effect of strain history in fast-flowing sections

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/observations-of-surface-mass-balance-on-pine-island-glacier-west-antarctica-and-the-effect-of-strain-history-in-fastflowing-sections/4F04455D66CB8E3D5B65B301813E1F2F/core-reader

HANNES KONRAD, ANNA E. HOGG, ROBERT MULVANEY
ROBERT ARTHERN, REBECCA J. TUCKWELL, BROOKE MEDLEY, ANDREW SHEPHERD
Open Access....nice paper

Abstract

Surface mass balance (SMB) is the net input of mass on a glacier's upper surface, composed of snow deposition, melt and erosion processes, and is a major contributor to the overall mass balance. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in West Antarctica has been dynamically imbalanced since the early 1990s, indicating that discharge of solid ice into the oceans exceeds snow deposition. However, observations of the SMB pattern on the fast flowing regions are scarce, and are potentially affected by the firn's strain history. Here, we present new observations from radar-derived stratigraphy and a relatively dense network of firn cores, collected along a ~900 km traverse of PIG. Between 1986 and 2014, the SMB along the traverse was 0.505 m w.e. a−1 on average with a gradient of higher snow deposition in the South-West compared with the North-East of the catchment. We show that along ~80% of the traverse the strain history amounts to a misestimation of SMB below the nominal uncertainty, but can exceed it by a factor 5 in places, making it a significant correction to the SMB estimate locally. We find that the strain correction changes the basin-wide SMB by ~0.7 Gt a−1 and thus forms a negligible (1%) correction to the glacier's total SMB.

8
Observations of surface mass balance on Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, and the effect of strain history in fast-flowing sections

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/observations-of-surface-mass-balance-on-pine-island-glacier-west-antarctica-and-the-effect-of-strain-history-in-fastflowing-sections/4F04455D66CB8E3D5B65B301813E1F2F/core-reader

HANNES KONRAD, ANNA E. HOGG, ROBERT MULVANEY
ROBERT ARTHERN, REBECCA J. TUCKWELL, BROOKE MEDLEY, ANDREW SHEPHERD
Open Access....nice paper

Abstract

Surface mass balance (SMB) is the net input of mass on a glacier's upper surface, composed of snow deposition, melt and erosion processes, and is a major contributor to the overall mass balance. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in West Antarctica has been dynamically imbalanced since the early 1990s, indicating that discharge of solid ice into the oceans exceeds snow deposition. However, observations of the SMB pattern on the fast flowing regions are scarce, and are potentially affected by the firn's strain history. Here, we present new observations from radar-derived stratigraphy and a relatively dense network of firn cores, collected along a ~900 km traverse of PIG. Between 1986 and 2014, the SMB along the traverse was 0.505 m w.e. a−1 on average with a gradient of higher snow deposition in the South-West compared with the North-East of the catchment. We show that along ~80% of the traverse the strain history amounts to a misestimation of SMB below the nominal uncertainty, but can exceed it by a factor 5 in places, making it a significant correction to the SMB estimate locally. We find that the strain correction changes the basin-wide SMB by ~0.7 Gt a−1 and thus forms a negligible (1%) correction to the glacier's total SMB.

9
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 03:40:32 PM »
After Hurricane Sandy I walked along the back bay waterfront and adjacent streets, most of this area was a velocity zone.  What I saw was 30yrs of memories piled up in heaps of garbage on the curb, mom sat quietly on what was left of the front porch, dad tried to look busy sorting out life's treasures, now garbage. The kids were looking in vane amongst the piles of trash for their favorite toy.

No one talked, their were no good mornings or have a nice day….people were stunned, staring in disbelief at a life's work now piled up on the curb.

How elected officials act or react matter…more so, how our president acts ….matters. 

10
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 06, 2019, 06:43:54 PM »
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-09-06/na-dorian-north-carolina-category-one

Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in North Carolina’s Outer Banks as it pushes up Eastern Seaboard



"WILMINGTON, N.C. —  Hurricane Dorian howled over North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Friday — a much weaker version of the brute that wreaked havoc in the Bahamas — flooding homes in the low-lying ribbon of islands and throwing a scare into year-round residents who chose to tough it out. Hundreds were feared trapped on one flooded island, the governor said."

"Its winds down to 90 mph, the Category 1 hurricane lashed communities with rain and surging seawater as it hugged the islands. Around midmorning, its eye came ashore at Cape Hatteras, Dorian’s first landfall on the U.S. mainland."

“It’s bad,” Ann Warner, who owns Howard’s Pub on Ocracoke Island, said by telephone. “The water came up to the inside of our bottom floor, which has never had water.” She said a skylight blew out and whitecaps coursed through her front yard and underneath her elevated house."



bligh

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 03, 2019, 04:56:00 PM »
Some comments & interviews w/Greta and others the day she arrived in NY, after a quick jump across the pond.

For anyone living in the tri state area.
https://strikewithus.org/rsvp-thanks/


12
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 31, 2019, 06:38:10 PM »
Russia to launch floating nuclear reactor


selected quotes from within the article.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/innovation/russia-to-launch-floating-nuclear-reactor-1.3993156

Russia to launch floating nuclear reactor
Rosatom insists 2-reactor unit is safe as tests are planned in the Arctic
Wed, Aug 21, 2019, 17:48


 
The vessel is a floating nuclear reactor, a portable power plant designed to supply electricity to areas disconnected from the grid, with an eye on export opportunities in developing countries
 
On Friday, three tugs will tow the Akademik Lomonosov barge out of Murmansk to begin a 5,000km voyage to a remote port on the other side of Russia’s Arctic coast, and in the process send waves through the nuclear energy sector.

The vessel is a floating nuclear reactor, a portable power plant designed to supply electricity to areas disconnected from the grid, and envisaged by Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom as the future of small-scale nuclear power with an eye on export opportunities in developing countries.

But the two-reactor Lomonosov, which took a decade to design and build, has sparked safety fears and concerns over the environmental impact of any mishap, amid concern over a botched nuclear missile test this month at a military site close to Murmansk that released a radiation spike in a nearby city.

Rosatom insists the unit is safe, and “virtually unsinkable” in case of natural disasters. The plant will also be guarded by the Russian guard, Moscow’s internal military force.
“Our unit has other tasks, other requirements in terms of security. It has to correspond with double standards - for a nuclear plant and a vessel,” said Dmitry Alexeenko, deputy head of Rosatom’s department overseeing its construction.

The unit is the first in a programme designed to provide power to remote communities where building a conventional nuclear power plant would be excessive. The Akademik Lomonosov will sail to the Chukotka region, deep in Russia’s far east, where miners are seeking to exploit gold and copper reserves....more within the article

A floating nuclear power plant in the Arctic....What could go wrong?

13
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 30, 2019, 02:26:25 PM »
Climate Change Is Likely to Devastate the Global Food Supply. But There's Still Reason to Be Hopeful
<snip>
But that fate hinges on a key assumption — that current agricultural practices won’t change. And if my research has taught me anything, it’s that farmers, scientists, activists and engineers the world over are radically rethinking food production.

In my opinion and I am by no means an expert,
these voices are not heard by most farmers.

Most farmers only hear the voices of agri-business, their government lackeys and bankers.
Most national agriculture organisations speak with the voice of agri-business.
Agriculture Universities are heavily influenced by agi-business.
Most agriculture magazines are a voice of agri-business.

These wrong information 'bubbles' (lies) are holding back large scale changes.
Almost the same as what happens with the climate change and bio-collapse truths.

Every lie told incurs a depth to the truth* This truth will unfold rather dramatically over the next decade or two & millions of people will pay for these "lies".

*read or heard that somewhere....

bligh

14
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: August 30, 2019, 04:32:03 AM »
I read a paper several days ago that I thought was to alarmist even for this forum, so I just forgot about it .. except here's the thing, within that paper they predicted one million AGW related deaths per week by the middle of the next decade.  After some thought and reading abit this does not sound to outlandish .. and, @ 1 million deaths per week, the global population would still be growing.

bligh

15
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: August 30, 2019, 03:52:37 AM »
            Extended U.S. Tornado Outbreak During Late May 2019: A Forecast of Opportunity
                         Vittorio A. Gensini  David Gold  John T. Allen  Bradford S. Barrett
                  First published: 27 August 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084470
          https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084470 - open access

                           some excerpts and figures .. more within the paper

Abstract
The second half of May 2019 was an unusually active period for tornadic thunderstorms across the U.S. Great Plains, Midwest, and lower Great Lakes. While this period typically coincides with the peak climatological frequency of tornadoes, preliminary reports of tornadoes were over triple the expected 30‐year average. Multiple‐day outbreaks of tornadoes are not unprecedented in the United States; however, this event was perhaps the first to be forecast at subseasonal lead times (3–4 weeks) by the Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecast team. This forecast of opportunity was driven, in part, by anomalous convective forcing in portions of the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, causing subsequent changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric angular momentum. This manuscript analyzes the evolution of hemispheric‐scale circulation features leading up to the event, examines teleconnection processes known to influence U.S. tornadoes, and provides insights into the forecast process at subseasonal lead times.

1 Introduction
The period 17–29 May 2019 was among the most active periods of severe weather the United States has seen in years. While 2019 data are still preliminary, at least 374 tornadoes occurred during this 13‐day stretch, more than tripling the 1986–2018 average for this period of 107. In total, 757 tornado warnings were issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service, with seven fatalities reported (Figure 1). This late‐May period contributed significantly to the second highest monthly (E)F1+ tornado count (220) on record for May since reliable tornado counts began in the early 1950s, behind only May 2003.


The 757 tornado warnings (red polygons) issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service from 1200 UTC 17 May to 1200 UTC 30 May 2019. Seven fatalities were reported during this period (locations marked by red +).


3.1 Event Summary: Synoptic Pattern
One of the most active periods of severe storms in U.S. history began on 17 May 2019 as a shortwave trough approached the Great Plains from the Great Basin. From 17 May onward, repeated days of severe weather, including several tornado outbreaks (Verbout et al., 2006), occurred as upper‐tropospheric southwesterly flow remained persistent over the Great Plains (Figure 2a), with average 300‐hPa winds during the period greater than 40 m/s. At 500 hPa, the mean negative geopotential height anomaly for the period was greater than 125 m over a large area covering the western CONUS. A persistent warm sector over the plains was characterized by vertically deep (≥2 km above ground level), anomalously rich boundary layer moisture (Figure 2c) and warm temperatures, both of which contributed to moderate‐extreme levels of convective available potential energy. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico for the 5‐week period leading up to this event were at or above normal, providing a source of boundary layer moisture (Molina & Allen, 2019). Another notable feature of this persistent period of tornado activity was multiple days with relatively weak capping inversions associated with below‐average elevated mixed layer temperatures. This promoted high spatial concentrations of severe storms that, given the favorable atmospheric parameters, were able to produce a substantial number of tornadoes.


For the period 17–29 May 2019, average (a) 300‐hPa wind (m/s) and 300‐hPa geopotential height (m), average (b) 500‐hPa geopotential height (m) and 500‐hPa geopotential height anomaly (m), and average (c) 925‐hPa specific humidity anomaly (g/kg) and 925‐hPa geopotential height (m) as computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. Anomalies calculated from the 1980–2010 climatology.

A leading mode of subseasonal variability capable of giving rise to synoptic patterns favorable for enhanced tornadic activity is the MJO (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Baggett et al., 2018; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett, 2018). As an MJO event evolves over a 40‐ to 60‐day cycle, tropical convection along the equator propagates eastward from the Indian Ocean toward the Pacific. Such propagation was clearly evident in outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (Figure 3) over the 4 weeks leading up to this event. Dynamically, latent heat release results in the formation of an anomalous anticyclone to the northwest of the convection, leading to an intensification of the upper‐tropospheric zonal winds to the anticyclone's north (Moore et al., 2010). As the MJO perturbation propagates eastward forcing convection, the net result is an extension of a strong upper‐tropospheric jet into the midlatitudes of the central Pacific. When a blocking anticyclone is in place over the eastern North Pacific ocean, this jet extension eventually leads to wave breaking over western North America. It is this wave breaking, and subsequent troughing over the U.S., that links the tropical MJO to U.S. tornado frequency (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Baggett et al., 2018; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett, 2018). The predictability of the MJO convection as it moves east from the Indian Ocean across the Pacific Ocean (Lim et al., 2018) allows it to serve as a leading indicator of upcoming tornadic activity once the MJO convection moves into the eastern Pacific Ocean (Baggett et al., 2018).


Fig 3. Average 300‐hPa geopotential height (contours) and wind speed (color fill) for (a) 19–25 April, (b) 26 April to 2 May, (c) 3–9 May, (d) 10–16 May, (e) 17–23 May, and (f) 24–29 May 2019.

Multiple time and space scales contribute to subseasonal and low‐frequency variability, including El Niño and the MJO. The former was lingering from boreal autumn 2018, while the latter was becoming active from latter April into early May. While El Niño is known to be less favorable to tornado occurrence (Allen et al., 2015; Cook et al., 2017), its modulation of the large‐scale circulation is not necessarily unfavorable to tornadic potential. This paradox arises due to its role in the development of a subtropical jet stream over the central and eastern Pacific extending into the Americas. This influence, as illustrated by (Cook et al., 2017) for the later winter months, can be favorable to the development of tornado outbreaks, particularly over the southeastern United States. Indeed, this type of subtropical jet signature was evident in the 4 weeks leading up to the May 2019 event, and the subtropical jet merged with the North Pacific jet for the duration of the event (Figure 4), suggesting that ENSO contributed favorably to this anomalous period of tornado activity.


Average 300‐hPa geopotential height (contours) and wind speed (color fill) for (a) 19–25 April, (b) 26 April to 2 May, (c) 3–9 May, (d) 10–16 May, (e) 17–23 May, and (f) 24–29 May 2019.

4 Summary and Discussion

The question of why some periods record anomalously above‐climatology tornado frequency has troubled many in the U.S. forecasting community for the past few decades (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Lee et al., 2012; Marzban & Schaefer, 2001; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett et al., 2015). The period 17–29 May 2019 stands as one of the most active in history, and was characterized by more than three times the climatological number of tornadoes for that time of year, occurring over 13 days and encompassing a wide region of Great Plains and Midwestern CONUS. Here, we have illustrated that a persistent upper‐level synoptic trough over the western CONUS, with a downstream ridge aloft over the eastern CONUS, were the main synoptic features of interest. Attribution of such synoptic‐scale features to larger‐scale, and therefore more predictable signals (Grazzini & Vitart, 2015), remains challenging owing to the complex manner in which processes interact to produce coherent, and therefore potentially predictable, subseasonal evolutions. In the present case, time scales associated with the propagation of the MJO from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the central Pacific Ocean (∼20–30 days, or roughly half a cycle) helped create an anomalous North Pacific jet stream extension and retraction sequence that aligned favorably with a transition in AAM from a relatively high to a low state. Previous research indicates that such MJO and AAM/GWO events can lead to favorable atmospheric conditions for tornadic storms in the U.S. Here, with careful monitoring of such features as they emerged both diagnostically and in NWP‐derived RMM phase space, forecasters were able to use signals within both the MJO and AAM/GWO to anticipate the potential for an extended period of favorable severe weather conditions nearly four weeks in advance. While the forecast metric of above‐normal, normal, or below‐normal (tercile) levels of tornado activity over a subjective spatial region is among the more simple methods available (Klemm & McPherson, 2017; Hartmann et al., 2002), this is a unique example of how understanding tropical convection's role in modulating extratropical dynamic processes can be used to identify a forecast of opportunity for an extreme weather event. The event also offers a pathway for developing operational predictions of U.S. tornado activity across a portion of the subseasonal timescale. Finally, this manuscript represents a single case of a successful subseasonal tornado forecast. More cases, including potential null events, should be examined in future work.

Welcome to the Anthropocene!

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 28, 2019, 10:58:15 PM »
Thank you....

17
Arctic background / Re: Historic Arctic Expeditions
« on: August 28, 2019, 07:19:12 PM »
                           Arctic shipwreck frozen in time astounds archaeologists

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/science/arctic-shipwreck-frozen-in-time-astounds-archaeologists/ar-AAGs8oD?ocid=spartandhp

"The wreck of H.M.S. Terror, one of the long lost ships from Sir John Franklin’s 1845 expedition to find the Northwest Passage, is astonishingly well preserved, say Parks Canada archaeologists, who recently used underwater drones to peer deep inside the historic vessel’s interior.

“The ship is amazingly intact,” says Ryan Harris, the lead archaeologist on the project. “You look at it and find it hard to believe this is a 170-year-old shipwreck. You just don’t see this kind of thing very often.”
 
"Discovered in 2016 in icy waters off King William Island in Canada’s far north, the shipwreck hadn’t been thoroughly studied until now. Taking advantage of unusually calm seas and good underwater visibility, a team from Parks Canada, in partnership with Inuit, earlier this month made a series of seven dives on the fabled wreck. Working swiftly in the frigid water, divers inserted miniature, remotely-operated drones through openings in the main hatchway and skylights in the crew’s cabins, officers’ mess, and captain’s stateroom."

“Those blankets of sediment, together with the cold water and darkness, create a near perfect anaerobic environment that’s ideal for preserving delicate organics such as textiles or paper,” says Harris. “There is a very high probability of finding clothing or documents, some of them possibly even still legible. Rolled or folded charts in the captain’s map cupboard, for example, could well have survived.”

"The only area below decks the team was unable to access was the captain’s sleeping quarters. Apparently the last person to leave closed the door. “Intriguingly, it was the only closed door on the ship,” says Harris. “I’d love to know what’s in there.”

"Just as tantalizing is the possibility that there could be pictures of the expedition awaiting discovery. It’s known that the expedition had a daguerreotype apparatus, and assuming it was used, the glass plates could still be aboard. “And if there are, it’s also possible to develop them,” says Harris. “It’s been done with finds at other shipwrecks. The techniques are there.”

The second image are of H.M.S. Terror & H.M.S. Erebus

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 28, 2019, 04:31:41 PM »
Haynes and Boone: North American E&P bankruptcies on the rise
Bankruptcies filed by North American oil and gas producers are experiencing an uptick this year following a substantial decrease in 2017 and 2018, according to an Aug. 12 report by Haynes and Boone.

"Bankruptcies filed by North American oil and gas producers are experiencing an uptick this year following a substantial decrease in 2017 and 2018, according to an Aug. 12 report by Haynes and Boone. The firm has monitored the number of North American oil and gas producer bankruptcies since 2015."

"The initial wave of bankruptcies in 2015-16 consisted of more than 100 bankruptcy filings. That number decreased during 2017-18 with 24 bankruptcy filings in 2017 and 28 in 2018. So far this year, however, the number has been rising. There have been 26 bankruptcies filed as of Aug. 12, with 20 filings since the beginning of May when H&B last reported its findings.
Over the entire period, 192 producers have filed for bankruptcy since the firm began tabulating E&P filings, involving some $106.8 billion in aggregate debt.
During 2015-19, Texas has seen the largest number of filings with 87; followed by Canada, 18; and Colorado, 10."

"Natural gas and natural gas liquids prices continue to be cited as a main contributor to the filings, and since the beginning of this year, said Haynes and Boone, “Oil has been range-bound in the $50s[/bbl] without any clear indication that prices are heading north anytime soon.”

As for what’s next, the firm said that it’s too early to predict, but “it is clear that for certain financially troubled producers wounded by the crash in 2015, some stakeholders may have given up hope that resurgent commodity prices will bail everyone out.” It added, “For these producers the game clock has run out of time to keep playing ‘kick the can’ with their creditors and other stakeholders.”

bligh

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 28, 2019, 04:21:15 PM »
Fitch: US shale oil output growth slowing
Despite relaxation of transport constraints in the Permian basin, a slowdown in oil-production growth in US shale plays will continue, says Fitch Solutions Macro Research.

https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14037456/fitch-us-shale-oil-output-growth-slowing



Aug 1st, 2019
"Despite relaxation of transport constraints in the Permian basin, a slowdown in oil-production growth in US shale plays will continue, says Fitch Solutions Macro Research.
The firm cites oil-price stability, caution by exploration and production companies, and weakening allure of oil and gas in capital markets.
Fitch notes that the US Energy Information Administration expects Permian basin shale production to grow by 16.7% in August after increasing by 44.7% in August last year. And it says similar trends are evident in the Bakken and Eagle Ford plays."

“With the next major capacity additions not slated to come online until the end of third-quarter 2019, the summer months could see another squeeze on takeaway capacity and, consequently, production growth,” it says.
Due online this year are the 400,000-b/d EPIC, 670,000-b/d Cactus, and 900,000-b/d Gray Oak pipelines.
Fitch does not expect the capacity additions to return production growth to its 2018 high, partly because 2018 growth occurred against a low base.
The firm expects growth in total US shale liquids production of 9.4% this year and 6.9% in 2020, compared with 15.7% last year."

Volume vs. value
And companies have shifted emphasis from production growth to investment value since 2014.
Even so, the producing industry continues to rely heavily on external financing from sources becoming wary.
“This could further drag on growth as financial conditions deteriorate,” Fitch says.
A drop of more than 50% in debt and equity issuance by US exploration and production companies in first-half 2019 from first-half 2018 is part of a trend only partly explained by increased capital discipline and deleveraging.

“It likely also reflects less appetite to lend to the sector at previous, more favorable rates,” Fitch says. “Sentiment around the oil and gas sector is weak in general, with concerns over long-term sustainability blending into concerns over shorter-term price pressures.”

bligh

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 28, 2019, 03:19:13 PM »
Greta looks tired, a passage like that will do that to one who is not experienced.  see the two large poles extending outward from the sides?  Their flying a spinnaker or a light air drifter, typically a 3/4 ounce sail (light as butterfly wings).  A good nights sleep & some good food and she'll be right as rain.

bligh

 

21
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 27, 2019, 06:07:17 PM »
                                  Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events

"G.R.Brakenridge, "Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events", Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado, http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/index.html.
The information presented in this Archive is derived from news, governmental, instrumental, and remote sensing sources. The archive is "active" because current events are added immediately.
Each entry in the table and related "area affected" map outline represents a discrete flood event. However, repeat flooding in some regions is a complex phenomenon and may require a compromise between aggregating and dividing such events. The listing is comprehensive and global in scope. Deaths and displaced estimates for tropical storms are totals from all causes, but tropical storms without significant river flooding are not included.
The Archive includes: 1) an online .html table of recent events, only; 2) Excel .xlsx and .xml files for all events, 1985-present, updated as the recent events html is updated; and 3) Zip-compressed GIS MapInfo format and Shp format files, each providing flood catalog numbers, centroids, area affected outlines, and other attribute information and updated as the recent events html is updated."  ..  More within the web page/article

https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/

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22
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:28:37 PM »
                           Staten Island seawall: Designing for climate change
                                            Updated 14th July 2019


"By 2025, New York's Staten Island will be fortified by a towering seawall running 5.3 miles along the coast, an engineering feat designed to ward off a growing threat.
The climate crisis is predicted to create more powerful and extreme weather systems all over the world, and coastal engineers are racing to respond with structures to reduce their impact.
The first seawalls were built centuries ago, though there are now, arguably, greater assets to protect and more people living along vulnerable coastlines than ever before.
A recent report by the Center for Climate Integrity estimated it could cost the US more than $400 billion over the next 20 years to protect coastal communities."

                                                 "Staten Island's new wall
When Hurricane Sandy smashed into the US East Coast in 2012, Staten Island was overwhelmed by massive waves that swept away properties and killed 24 of the dozens of people who eventually died in the storm.
With a population of almost half a million, low-lying Staten Island was no match for the waves whipped up in New York Harbor, one of which reached a record 32.5 feet high."

"Mostly granite is being used but in some cases we are using vegetation -- a particular type of vegetation from the trees there," Pareeth said.


"The design of seawalls has evolved over time, from rock -- which is still used -- to interlocking concrete units, including the Tetrapods commonly seen in Japan. When rock isn't available, concrete can be more cost-efficient, allowing large numbers of correctly-sized parts to be produced.

"In recent years there's been a greater push towards natural solutions -- using dunes, mangroves and man-made reefs alongside man-made walls to help calm the sea.
"We're not only building a structure that is functional in an engineering sense but it's functional in an environmental sense," said Matt Eliot, a coastal engineer and direct of Seashore Engineering based in Perth, Australia. "We're using that to look for what habitats we can encourage to make it better for the plants and animals in the area."
In some cases, holes and crevices are being built into the walls to encourage nature to grow around them. Other designs seek to reduce the impact of waves before they hit."

More within the article
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/staten-island-seawall-climate-crisis-design/index.html



 

23
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 26, 2019, 10:23:26 PM »
                            "Will come back to you when i've found out how it's called."

Thank You....This past winter I shoveled snow with a broom, twice I think.  Spring was confusing for the plants, cold then warm, several cold days then warm. Those warm sweet summer nights of the 50s&60s have turned into paltry steamy nightmares, punctuated by rain events approaching biblical proportions. 

Back in the 80s/90s I played a unspoken game of "birds" with a friend.  The person who saw a Robin first had to say where, when & what the bird was doing & for that won one dollar.  For years it was within days of March 15th.  Then early 2000s the game was cancelled due to fact the Birds never left. Now my bird bath along the back properity edge goes unused.  For decades I took pride in the fact that every afternoon I would lightly clean the bird bath and refill it.  Every morning the was always a bird fight to see whom would bath first....the biggest bird always went first.  Now my stone monolith sits unused awaiting a bird.

bligh 

24
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 26, 2019, 08:43:36 PM »
Released Date: 1971


25
We (where I live) had a rain event some weeks past,  it just doesn't rain any more, this rain event brought very frequent lightning strikes and heavy winds (76 MPH-122KPH) to this area, knocking-out power to 306 thousand customers. Crews from the surrounding area and as far away as Canada stormed the area to help restore power.  PSE&G (First Energy) developed a plan to mitigate this problem moving forward, no..no news plans to limit fossil fuel emissions, instead they
installed heavy metal bracing to existing wood poles. I was told the one parameter used was the age of the pole.

bligh   

26
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 26, 2019, 04:57:26 PM »
I might think that all weather today and for some years now is related to climate change.

bligh

27
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 24, 2019, 05:29:52 PM »
Thx Vox

Hurricanes are a capricious thing, but still ..  I don't like the looks of this

28
Consequences / Re: Water wars
« on: August 24, 2019, 04:58:14 PM »
Declare state of emergency over Newark water crisis, lawmaker begs Murphy

"State Assemblyman Jamel Holley, D-Union, sent a letter to Murphy and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka on Tuesday, pleading that the state issue an emergency declaration to take over management of Newark’s water system and to dispatch the National Guard to handle the distribution of bottled water, among other requests, according to a copy of the letter obtained by NJ Advance Media."

"Newark’s lead levels spiked in 2017 but last week the city began handing out more than 70,000 cases of bottled water “out of an abundance of caution” after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency asked the city to do so. The agency was troubled by new testing that questioned the effectiveness of more than 39,000 PUR water filters handed out by the city. Two of three tested homes with those filters did not remove enough lead from the water, the surprising tests showed."

I've some personal experience with PUR water product's and frankly ..  I was not impressed with their performance.

"The filters were part of the city’s short-term plan to address spiked lead levels in the water as the city fixed the water treatment. A longer-term plan to replace the lead service lines causing the issue will take years, and $75 million."

https://www.nj.com/news/2019/08/declare-state-of-emergency-over-newark-water-crisis-lawmaker-begs-murphy.html

bligh

29
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 22, 2019, 03:56:45 PM »
Hi Kassy .. Not everyone can evacuate, only 22% of folks living in Manhattan have private transportation and 52% of folks living in NYC have private transportation.  Some of the poorer folks in NYC have lived there for generations, meaning Aunt Jenny lives right down the block, so… nowhere to go. Now, I'm referring to Hurricane Sandy which did flood lower Manhattan and much of the five boroughs.  Some if not many of the corner bodegas ran out of food within several days, life became marginalized for many and all of this was with a 13ft storm surge.   

30
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 21, 2019, 08:28:10 PM »
"The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured these images of several fires burning in the states of Rondônia, Amazonas, Pará, and Mato Grosso on August 11 and August 13, 2019.


31
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: August 21, 2019, 02:55:46 PM »

Another bit that concerns me is flooding inland after more violent precipitation events. But that's for another thread.

sidd

Hey...seems others are concerned as well ..

Re: Precipitation trends
« Reply #28 on: Today at 02:47:32 PM »

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32
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: August 21, 2019, 02:47:32 PM »
Recent increase in catastrophic tropical cyclone flooding in coastal North Carolina, USA: Long-term observations suggest a regime shift
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46928-9

Hans W. Paerl, Nathan S. Hall, Alexandria G. Hounshell, Richard A. Luettich Jr., Karen L. Rossignol, Christopher L. Osburn & Jerad Bales
Scientific Reports volume 9, Article number: 10620 (2019)...open access

 Abstract

Coastal North Carolina, USA, has experienced three extreme tropical cyclone-driven flood events since 1999, causing catastrophic human impacts from flooding and leading to major alterations of water quality, biogeochemistry, and ecological conditions. The apparent increased frequency and magnitudes of such events led us to question whether this is just coincidence or whether we are witnessing a regime shift in tropical cyclone flooding and associated ecosystem impacts. Examination of continuous rainfall records for coastal NC since 1898 reveals a period of unprecedentedly high precipitation since the late-1990’s, and a trend toward increasingly high precipitation associated with tropical cyclones over the last 120 years. We posit that this trend, which is consistent with observations elsewhere, represents a recent regime shift with major ramifications for hydrology, carbon and nutrient cycling, water and habitat quality and resourcefulness of Mid-Atlantic and possibly other USA coastal regions.

" In addition to their devastating societal and economic impacts, storms associated with this increased frequency are having major ramifications for carbon and nutrient cycling in coastal estuaries and thus represent “hot moments” in coastal biogeochemistry7. In fact, recent work shows that these extreme events caused unprecedented nutrient- and organic matter-laden freshwater discharges to nutrient-sensitive receiving coastal waters, including the USA’s 2nd largest estuarine complex and a key fishery and recreational resource, the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound (APS) (Fig. 1), which drains ~ 40% of North Carolina’s and 10% of Virginia’s coastal plain regions via 5 major rivers8,9."

"Overall, our analysis indicates that; 1) we are experiencing a regime shift in the intensity and quantity of rainfall associated with these events, and 2) this shift has led to unprecedented large loads of nutrients and orgenic matter with major implications for biogeochemical cycling, primary production and overall water quality conditions in the receiving APS and adjacent coastal waters. Furthermore, our observations are consistent with similar observations elsewhere and with predicted hydrologic, nutrient and carbon flux changes taking place in a warming climate1,2,3,4,5,6."

"The receiving waters of the APS have a surface area of 5,335 km2 and drain five major watersheds (Neuse, Tar-Pamlico, Roanoke, Chowan, and Pasquotank Rivers). These watersheds cover an area ~80,000 km2, total freshwater discharge of ∼21 km3 yr−1, and drain about 40% of North Carolina’s and 10% of Virginia’s surface area. Because tidal exchange with the coastal Atlantic Ocean is restricted to three narrow inlets, the APS has a relatively long water residence time of ~1 yr14; this provides suspended algae (phytoplankton) and vascular plants ample time to assimilate nutrients, resulting in high productivity per unit nutrient input. These characteristics are key to the PS serving as a highly productive nursery, supporting ~80% of US mid-Atlantic commercial and recreationally caught finfish and shellfish species11. However, it also makes the system sensitive to nutrient-over enrichment, resultant eutrophication and nuisance algal blooms12,15. The long residence time also enables ample time for photochemical and/or microbial degradation of organic matter16."

"With less than a 2% chance of three such events occurring in a twenty-year period23, either North Carolina has been very unlucky, or the historical record used to define the storm statistics is no longer representative of the present climatic regime. This analysis suggests that the occurrence of three extreme floods resulting from high rainfall tropical cyclone events in the past 20 years is a consequence of the increased moisture carrying capacity of tropical cyclones due to the warming climate

"Thus, evidence is accumulating that we may also be seeing changes to the “system state” of coastal waters in terms of their ability to capture or release CO2 37,38. Such changes caused by an increased frequency of extreme storm events are ostensibly reorganizing coastal carbon cycles

"Considering these extreme precipitation events and their hydrologic and biogeochemical consequences in totality, it is clear that they are unparalleled in the past 120+ years of recorded tropical cyclones in coastal North Carolina (Fig. 3). The potential exists for receiving waters globally to undergo unprecedented perturbations to nutrient and carbon cycling, fisheries habitat and sustainability due to increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events; all of which are still to be determined. With roughly 40% of the world’s population within 100 km of the coast, development inland, as well as along the coastline, will exacerbate the perturbations caused by this type of regime shift.....more within the paper


33
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: August 19, 2019, 04:17:21 PM »
nice response .. and, Your Very Welcome

34
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: August 18, 2019, 05:10:42 PM »
Ice sheets matter for the global carbon cycle

J. L. Wadham, J. R. Hawkings, L. Tarasov, L. J. Gregoire, R. G. M. Spencer, M. Gutjahr, A. Ridgwell & K. E. Kohfeld .. open access, nice paper

Abstract

The cycling of carbon on Earth exerts a fundamental influence upon the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, and hence global climate over millennia. Until recently, ice sheets were viewed as inert components of this cycle and largely disregarded in global models. Research in the past decade has transformed this view, demonstrating the existence of uniquely adapted microbial communities, high rates of biogeochemical/physical weathering in ice sheets and storage and cycling of organic carbon (>104 Pg C) and nutrients. Here we assess the active role of ice sheets in the global carbon cycle and potential ramifications of enhanced melt and ice discharge in a warming world.

" Only in the last 15 years have glacial systems started to be considered as active cyclers of carbon, arising from the discovery that they include a range of aquatic environments4 which host abundant and diverse populations of microorganisms5 and are hot spots for biogeochemical weathering6. These processes create the potential for ice sheets to directly or indirectly impact the global carbon cycle (Fig. 1). Direct impacts include the release of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, CO2 and methane, CH4) during the microbial respiration of organic matter (OM) stored within ice sheets. Examples of indirect impacts include the fertilisation of downstream ecosystems, promoted by either the release of nutrient-rich glacial meltwaters7,8,9 or by subglacial meltwater-induced upwelling of nutrient replete marine water at tidewater glacier margins10,11,12,13,14. Ocean fertilisation by glaciers may be accompanied by significant CO2 drawdown by phytoplankton, intensifying the biological pump15,16."

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 17, 2019, 01:57:59 PM »
The vessel is heading south east making way for the trade wind passage....I'm sure they have on board or through communication's the very best weather information possible.  Sailing, without exception, is the most environmentally friendly way to travel.  Movement without effort, traveling without burning FF.  I'm purty sure there are no cooking facilities on that vessel, every thing about that boat is about weight...   when the boat reaches a speed of 17 mph, the noise below deck becomes deafening, this is true of all sailing in heavy weather, I had ear plugs which helped a little.
I'm also sure the construction of that vessel is fossil fuel intensive, which matters not considering what the las is trying to communicate with the planet.  The British people have always been a little desperate searching for the next "hero", I'm sure we will get some over head footage, plane or helo, just as we did with Sir Francis Charles Chichester while rounding the horn.

I sincerely wish this young girl all the luck and success inher efforts to help us.

bligh

36
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:09:23 PM »
Reply #212 on: November 18, 2017, 02:39:16 PM »

Quote
Within the following link (open access) is discussed evidence of
Iceberg transport, most likely sourced from the Antarctic Peninsula.
And that the East Falklands/Malvinas Current was still in operation during last glacial cycle.   The evidence of ice-berg scours and pits along the western side of the Falkland Islands would also result in further cooling from fresh, meltwater perturbations, enhancing the development of a potential ice-bridge along the Argentinean coast.

So, we have an Ice Bridge along the Argentinean coast, from the presence of ice bergs.
Now this is at the other end of the world and certainty not another Laurentide ice sheet.

But hey... it's a start

Bbr you have the ball

r2d2......out

37
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 14, 2019, 02:23:01 PM »
2°C: Beyond the limit

Extreme climate change has arrived in America

"LAKE HOPATCONG, N.J. — Before climate change thawed the winters of New Jersey, this lake hosted boisterous wintertime carnivals. As many as 15,000 skaters took part, and automobile owners would drive onto the thick ice. Thousands watched as local hockey clubs battled one another and the Skate Sailing Association of America held competitions, including one in 1926 that featured 21 iceboats on blades that sailed over a three-mile course.

"These winters do not exist anymore," says Marty Kane, a lawyer and head of the Lake Hopatcong Foundation.

"A Washington Post analysis of more than a century of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration temperature data across the Lower 48 states and 3,107 counties has found that major areas are nearing or have already crossed the 2-degree Celsius mark.
— Today, more than 1 in 10 Americans — 34 million people — are living in rapidly heating regions, including New York City and Los Angeles. Seventy-one counties have already hit the 2-degree Celsius mark.

"In the past century, the Earth has warmed 1 degree Celsius. But that’s just an average. Some parts of the globe — including the mountains of Romania and the steppes of Mongolia — have registered increases twice as large. It has taken decades or in some cases a century. But for huge swaths of the planet, climate change is a present-tense reality, not one looming ominously in the distant future.

"New Jersey’s largest lake was shut down after the state’s environmental agency warned against swimming or fishing “for weeks, if not longer.”
The nation’s hot spots will get worse, absent a global plan to slash emissions of the greenhouse gases fueling climate change. By the time the impacts are fully recognized, the change may be irreversible.
 
Daniel Pauly, an influential marine scientist at the University of British Columbia, says the 2-degree Celsius hot spots are early warning sirens of a climate shift.

“Basically,” he said, “these hot spots are chunks of the future in the present.”

I checked the bridge clearance gauge again at high tide (3rd time this week) and again is showed a clearance of 48ft.  OK it was a 99 percent full Moon but still, that's about 1.5 ft higher than it was in 2005.  This is at 40N along the east coast.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/?noredirect=on

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38
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: August 12, 2019, 03:18:35 PM »
Terry

They came through my neighborhood about 4/5 yrs ago and replaced all the low pressure lines in the street and the lines running up to the house meters.  I might think that this was a state wide effort knowing the economics of the township in which I live, still, I'm guessing here.

I see we have some shared history, I've a master's degree in "street"  mostly NYC downtown east side, alphabet city, dark days.  Got out in 87 just before the A-Train came into town...pure luck.

I do not have, nor could I guess at a reasonable response to our current FF problem only that I might think that we should STOP digging the crap up and let the cards fall will they will.
I would prefer a controlled decent into chaos rather than let's just set the planet on fire.

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39
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: August 11, 2019, 02:52:27 PM »
Good Morning Terry

Yea, there has been many papers/articles posted about this unnecessary/unattractive area of NG.
..A bridge to no ware..  comes to mind.  I see Berkley CA became the first city no ban NG, hopefully others will follow.  It's still a little early around here and quiet, a good time to tend my garden.

Have a day
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40
Antarctica / Re: Majestic Antarctic Images
« on: August 10, 2019, 08:17:51 PM »
...flyin fire breathing dragons.

you did ask.....so

Cheers
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41
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:18:53 PM »
The Leaks That Threaten the Clean Image of Natural Gas
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082635

 Abstract
Urban emissions remain an underexamined part of the methane budget. Here we present and interpret aircraft observations of six old and leak‐prone major cities along the East Coast of the United States. We use direct observations of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C2H6), and their correlations to quantify CH4 emissions and attribute to natural gas. We find the five largest cities emit 0.85 (0.63, 1.12) Tg CH4/year, of which 0.75 (0.49, 1.10) Tg CH4/year is attributed to natural gas. Our estimates, which include all thermogenic methane sources including end use, are more than twice that reported in the most recent gridded EPA inventory, which does not include end‐use emissions. These results highlight that current urban inventory estimates of natural gas emissions are substantially low, either due to underestimates of leakage, lack of inclusion of end‐use emissions, or some combination thereof.....more within the article.
Sorry if this was posted b4...did not see it in search




42
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: August 10, 2019, 06:09:39 AM »
Gatta love Zillow .. put out a report like this,  then try to sell ya waterfront properity.

The wave in the above post, that kinda wave hurts boats, that thing is breaking and tumbling heavily.  knockdown a sailboat & stove in freeboard on bulk carriers, that's how they break within Ocean currents, the gulf stream's North wall comes to mind.

bligh   

43
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: August 08, 2019, 02:51:36 PM »
Quote
"I caught a triggerfish in Mexico one year and then I saw one here the next year and I was thinking, 'Something's not right here—I shouldn't be seeing this here.'"

Going back to the early/mid nineties tropical oddities were often seen in inlets and some in shallower water areas where there was an obstruction, rocks, wreaks & jetties.  From trigger fish to sea horse's they would all be here locally, at times, in high numbers.  Some felt that their eggs would ride north on sargassum seaweed and be born locally, others suggested these small creatures would traverse that long ride from the tropics to the northern reaches of the
temperate zone within the stream.  The gulf stream does at times deliver waves of tropical water up against the coast,  I found it disorienting to roll off my boat and clearly see the pebbles on the bottom some 50ft below , in water that one would expect 10-15 ft of viz.  It was very unusual but not un-heard of to have 200ft of visibility…. mostly, late summer.
I could see the population of these tropical creatures fall in-step with the water temps.  The pic below is of my dive boat "Miss Fitt"  your typical down-east, hard chine, full keel & stable platform from which to dive.






44
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: August 05, 2019, 05:20:39 PM »
So,  just to clarify what's going on with RSLR along the east coast at least where I live and I suspect it's the same elseware or worse.

In 1995 (don't laugh all at once) I was taking ballroom dancing lessons with my wife,  I mean I had been out to sea for 3 of the last 4.5 years, so yea, let's do something nice for her.  One of the guys also taking lessons was the job foreman for the rt 35 bridge spanning the inlet out to the N. Atlantic.  The guy was nice enough to show me the plans for the bridge and explain the language the Defense Mapping Agency used to clarify vertical clearances, on this bridge it's 50ft. At the upper support corners their is a radius built into the design.  Vertical and horizontal clearances are defined as a box the size of the listed clearances must be able to fit through the opening, ok that gave me another 4 inches of vertical clearance. The mast on my vessel is 49feet 8 inches. Based on these numbers and outside of a wind driven event I should fit under the bridge at all times excluding Mean higher high water or about 15% of the time. Hitting the bridge would be about a 30thousand $ mistake with the chance of someone getting hurt.  I was noticing variations  on the vertical clearance gauge about 7 years ago so I moved my vessel to a port with opening bridges.

Several weeks ago I took a evening boat ride on a friends power boat under this rt. 35 bridge and out to the ocean we traveled south to Manasquan where we had a bite to eat at a dock side restaurant, upon returning I paid very close attention to the vertical clearance gauge as it appeared to be high tide.  The gauge indicated there was 48 ft of vertical clearance.  There was no full or new moon or a wind driven event involved.  So according to the gauge and careful observations we have had about 24 inches of RSLR over the past 14-15 years, at 40deg North along the east coast.

More disturbing is the fact that in this neighbor hood we have zero free board at mean higher high tides with some nuisance flooding occurring mostly from water backing up storm drains and flooding adjacent streets.  Amazingly enough houses are selling very well and what I consider to be inflated prices.  It's some crazy world were living in.

higher red arrow indicates the corner radius... lower red arrow vertical clearance gauge

45
Consequences / Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« on: August 03, 2019, 04:49:36 PM »
Rich  Their have been many papers published about the AMOC slowdown and the proposed gravity shifts.  My suggestion that Miami and that portion of the planet is experiencing a more rapid
slr because it is natural to do so is correct.  I did mention that I live along the east coast, yes?
Miami Dade county according to tide guages is at .75 to one inch per year.   from within your paper" In both cases, Ezer says, the storms slowed the Gulf Stream. That’s because strong winds near the surface weaken the Gulf Stream flow, contributing to high sea levels farther north in places like Norfolk."  "The storm's slowed the gulf stream"  ok...a higher than normal tide would result and it would be temporary.  Gravity shifts at this point are minimal. I checked Aviso, SLR, North Atlantic,
Jason 2....looks like more of the same.

46
Consequences / Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« on: August 03, 2019, 04:01:01 PM »
Sea levels globally have risen 2" this decade and are going up at 3" per decade right now. Faster in Miami Beach due to MOC slowdown and reduced gravitational force at the poles.
Very easy to see additional 4"-6" rise in Miami Beach by 2030. What do you think happens to their bond rating in that scenario?

Rich..SLR is what it is in Miami because it is natural to do so.  We have the North Equatorial current being fed to a point by the Canary current and the entire North Atlantic trade winds blowing water up against the coast right into that area.  The affects of the AMOC slowdown are minimal at this point along with gravity considerations.

But we were discussing real-estate in NC, House Bill 819 provided a provision for additional time to study and refine sea level predictions. On March 31, 2015 the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission Science Panel issued an update to the original 2010 Report. In the 2010 report, the commission stated that over the next 100 years sea levels will rise about 39 inches. The 2015 report concludes that sea level rise will range from 2 to 12 inches along the coast of North Carolina over the next 30 years.  Real estate transactions happen or not based on local laws, in NJ a real-estate agent must disclose flooding risk from SLR to a buyer, not so much in NC.

bligh

47
Antarctica / Re: The Ross Ice Shelf Thread
« on: August 02, 2019, 06:05:53 PM »
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084123

Ross Ice Shelf Icequakes Associated with Ocean Gravity Wave Activity


Z. Chen P.D. Bromirski P. Gerstoft R.A. Stephen W.S. Lee S. Yun S.D. Olinger R.C. Aster
D.A. Wiens A.A. Nyblade
First published: 01 August 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084123


Abstract

Gravity waves impacting ice shelves illicit a suite of responses that can affect ice shelf integrity. Broadband seismometers deployed on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), complemented by a near‐icefront seafloor hydrophone, establish the association of strong icequake activity with ocean gravity wave amplitudes (AG) below 0.04 Hz. The RIS‐front seismic vertical displacement amplitudes (ASV) are well‐correlated with AG, allowing estimating the frequency‐dependent transfer function from gravity wave amplitude to icefront vertical displacement amplitude (TGSV (f)). TGSV (f) is 0.6‐0.7 at 0.001‐0.01 Hz, but decreases rapidly at higher frequencies. Seismicity of strong icequakes exhibits spatial and seasonal associations with different gravity wave frequency bands, with the strongest icequakes observed at the icefront primarily during the austral summer when sea ice is minimal and swell impacts are strongest.

see also..pdf.. open access...Annals of Glaciology 53(60) 2012  doi: 10.3189/2012AoG60A058
Response of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to oceangravity-wave forcing
This is a much more complete paper with lotsof purty images and graphs.

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48
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic images
« on: August 01, 2019, 07:42:10 PM »
Our aquatic friends appear to b a little nervous

49
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcomm.2019.00036/full

Science and Environmental Communication on YouTube: Strategically Distorted Communications in Online Videos on Climate Change and Climate Engineering

This contribution presents results from an exploratory research project that investigates whether videos found on YouTube adhere to or challenge scientific consensus views. Ten search terms were employed to search for and analyze 200 videos about climate and climate modification topics, which are contested topics in online media. The online anonymization tool Tor has been used for the randomization of the sample and to avoid personalization of the results. A heuristic qualitative classification tool was set up to categorize the videos in the sample. Eighty-nine videos of the 200 videos in the sample are supporting scientific consensus views about anthropogenic climate change, and climate scientists are discussing climate topics with deniers of climate change in four videos in the sample. Unexpectedly, the majority of the videos in the sample (107 videos) supports worldviews that are opposing scientific consensus views...more within the article

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50
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: July 28, 2019, 10:42:15 PM »
Storms not directly associated with a low pressure system that can cause wide spread power outages are currently happening today, along with a direct impact on food production. A Regime shift in rainfall totals associated with coastal low pressure systems are already causing
profound human suffering and environmental degradation all over the planet.  Increasing melt rates associated with the decrease in doubling times is happening much quicker than projected and is likely to increase SLR beyond any anticipated rates.  Sea Level rise and storms
are likely to be the final nail in the coffin of humanity…..

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