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Messages - bligh8

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1
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: May 03, 2019, 02:19:02 PM »
Dealing with the absurdity of human existence in the face of converging catastrophes.

Homo sapiens means wise human, but the name no longer suits us. As an evolutionary biologist who writes about Darwinian interpretations of human motivations and cultures, I propose that at some point we became what we are today: Homo absurdus, a human that spends its whole life trying to convince itself that its existence is not absurd.

As French philosopher Albert Camus put it: "Man is the only creature who refuses to be what he is." Thanks to this entrenched absurdity, the 21st century is riding on a runaway train of converging catastrophes in the Anthropocene.

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-absurdity-human-converging-catastrophes.html


2
Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:38:08 AM »
Receding Chilean glacier a sign of accelerating climate change



"In the space of just two weeks, two large icebergs broke off the Grey Glacier in Chilean Patagonia—a sign of accelerating climate change, experts say.

The Grey Glacier is one of the main sights in the Torres del Paine national park popular with tourists and hikers.
A giant iceberg the size of six football pitches—8.8 hectares (22 acres)—broke away from the glacier on February 20 and another six hectare piece detached on March 7.
It marks the first time two icebergs of such great size have broken off in such quick succession.
The 270 square kilometer (104 square mile) glacier receded by 500 meters (550 yards), more than half the amount lost over the previous decade.
A smaller iceberg detached in 2017 but Ricardo Jana, a scientist at the Chilean Antarctic Institute, said "the loss of mass over the previous years was definitely smaller than this year."
Scientists following the glacier's evolution say it lost around two kilometers in the last 30 years.
A United Nations study in 2018 found that 95 percent of Chile's 24,100 glaciers had receded.
Scientists say that unusually warm summer temperatures—up to 31 degrees Celsius in Patagonia—and high rainfall weakened the glacier's walls.
"The receding of the glaciers coincides with the increased temperatures that we've noticed in the region," said Inti Gonzalez, a glaciologist at the Cequa Foundation that studies geology in Patagonia and the Antarctic.
Higher rainfall also accelerates the glacier melt while raising the level of the eponymous lake where the glacier is found.


Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2019-03-receding-chilean-glacier-climate.html#jCp



3
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: March 02, 2019, 11:37:03 AM »
History suggest SLR will come in surges or pulses and likely not liner or expontial.  Ice mechanics .. say a cascading calving event from the Thwaites or else ware in the Amundsen Sea sector or even a saddle collapse, which is less likely ..  from Greenland,    might produce a pulse such as we have seen in the past as in Melt water pulse 1A. Ice does not need to melt to raise sea level just fall into the ocean.


4
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 10, 2019, 02:32:22 PM »
I've some friends who are transiting the Beagle channel right now……2 days ago they said it was 92Deg.  Imagine, I'm sure they went out and purchased some expensive cold weather gear, turns out ..  shorts and flip flops would have worked as well.

5
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: January 15, 2019, 03:36:08 PM »
SLR is more along the East Coast US.

6
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 01, 2019, 05:58:24 PM »
For 2018:

Annual: As of December 29th, statewide annual precipitation is 63.25”

NJ’s statewide annual precipitation averages 46.36”.

100 days with winds gusting to 40 mph or higher (2017 had 89). Of these, 25 had gusts of at least 50 mph (2017 had 34).

Yesterday it was 62DegF, heavy rain and windy into last night so the above will change.

From <https://www.njweather.org/content/top-ten-new-jersey-weather-and-climate-events-2018>

The rain interfered with outside work mostly in March, April & May…& high temps limited summer time outside heavy work into September.

The above remark was garnered from conversations with large construction products suppliers
across Monmouth county.

Bligh

And of course....best to all in the coming year


Edit:
     Coastal flooding
        Minor to moderate coastal flooding with beach erosion, road flooding and some structural damage occurred most notably on January 3rd–4th, March 2nd, March 12th–14th, March 20th–22nd, September 7th–10th, October 27th, and November 16th.
        The most substantial flooding of the year occurred on the morning of the 27th. The water level of 7.70’ in Atlantic City was the 13th highest in well over 75 years of record. The 8.77’ water level at Sandy Hook (Monmouth) was the 12th highest in over 75 years of record.


7
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: December 13, 2018, 08:12:21 PM »
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-global.html

The long dry: global water supplies are shrinking


"A global study has found a paradox: our water supplies are shrinking at the same time as climate change is generating more intense rain. And the culprit is the drying of soils, say researchers, pointing to a world where drought-like conditions will become the new normal, especially in regions that are already dry.


"The study – the most exhaustive global analysis of rainfall and rivers – was conducted by a team led by Professor Ashish Sharma at Australia's UNSW (University of New South Wales) in Sydney. It relied on actual data from 43,000 rainfall stations and 5300 river monitoring sites in 160 countries, instead of basing its findings on model simulations of a future climate, which can be uncertain and at times questionable.


'Blue water' vs 'green water'


"For every 100 raindrops that fall on land, only 36 drops are 'blue water' – the rainfall that enters lakes, rivers and aquifers – and therefore, all the water extracted for human needs. The remaining two thirds of rainfall is mostly retained as soil moisture – known as 'green water' – and used by the landscape and the ecosystem.
As warming temperatures cause more water to evaporate from soils, those dry soils are absorbing more of the rainfall when it does occur – leaving less 'blue water' for human use.
"It's a double whammy," said Sharma. "Less water is ending up where we can store it for later use. At the same time, more rain is overwhelming drainage infrastructure in towns and cities, leading to more urban flooding."




8
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: December 13, 2018, 04:42:47 PM »
>


The role of the permanent wilting point in controlling the spatial distribution of precipitation

https://www.pnas.org/content/115/22/5692#sec-1
Significance
One basic distinction between land and ocean is that the land can dry out. We show that this is of fundamental importance for the precipitation distribution over land as it brings precipitation from the precipitating region to the nonprecipitating region. This process prevents the land–atmosphere system from sustaining precipitation over the same region and thus acts against drought or the formation of desert. Paradoxically, although dry atmospheres are known to hamper moist convection, drying the soil to its permanent wilting point generates circulations that are strong enough to overcome this inhibition. Our findings help understand why tropical rain bands broaden poleward over land, the more so the drier the soils are.

Abstract
Convection-permitting simulations on an idealized land planet are performed to understand whether soil moisture acts to support or impede the organization of convection. Initially, shallow circulations driven by differential radiative cooling induce a self-aggregation of the convection into a single band, as has become familiar from simulations over idealized sea surfaces. With time, however, the drying of the nonprecipitating region induces a reversal of the shallow circulation, drawing the flow at low levels from the precipitating to the nonprecipitating region. This causes the precipitating convection to move over the dry soils and reverses the polarity of the circulation. The precipitation replenishes these soils with moisture at the expense of the formerly wet soils which dry, until the process repeats itself. On longer timescales, this acts to homogenize the precipitation field. By analyzing the strength of the shallow circulations, the surface budget with its effects on the boundary layer properties, and the shape of the soil moisture resistance function, we demonstrate that the soil has to dry out significantly, for the here-tested resistance formulations below 15% of its water availability, to be able to alter the precipitation distribution. We expect such a process to broaden the distribution of precipitation over tropical land. This expectation is supported by observations which show that in drier years the monsoon rains move farther inland over Africa.

Physically, the ability of soil moisture to store water and lose water in interaction with the atmosphere affects the partitioning between sensible and latent heat flux and through this the precipitation distribution in two potentially opposing ways. First, a change in the Bowen ratio affects the stability of the atmosphere and hence the triggering of convection. The most common response is that an increase in soil moisture favors the triggering of convection (18, 19) and hence increases precipitation. Following this argument, soil moisture maintains precipitation in the precipitating region. Second, the spatially localized nature of convective precipitation leads to the development of soil moisture gradients. Gradients in soil moisture lead to gradients in sensible heat flux, which can thermally induce a shallow circulation with surface flow from the wet to the dry region. This circulation can lead to the triggering of convection over the dry region (20, 21), a phenomenon that has been in particular observed in the Sahel region (22), although its signature has been deciphered globally (23). Following this second argument, soil moisture brings precipitation to the nonprecipitating region.

The below are all extracts from within the paper.


Soil Moisture Brings Precipitation to the Nonprecipitating Region
We use a simple formulation for the land surface in our simulations, a formulation that retains the two key characteristics of soil moisture (Materials and Methods): its spatial and temporal variability through the action of precipitation and evaporation as well as its nonlinear control on the surface fluxes via the use of a resistance formulation (Eq. 5). This model version is compared with a version where the soil moisture resistance is set to zero, mimicking the situation of an infinite supply of water.
In our simulations, convection rapidly develops and produces precipitation with a daily mean of around 4.6 mm⋅d−1. The spatial distribution of precipitation (Fig. 1) indicates that in both model versions convection organizes as time proceeds. That convection spontaneously begins to self-aggregate into a large convective structure is a well-known feature from past RCE simulations, as noted previously. Interactive soil moisture leads to little difference between the simulations up to around day 60. The monthly mean precipitating area, calculated from days 25 to 55, occupies 76% of the domain in both simulations. Hence, during this time period, the precipitation distribution is fully controlled by the atmosphere. This is consistent with values of the atmospheric resistance rara that are much larger than values of the soil moisture resistance rsrs, for instance 100 times larger at noon.

The Spatial Distribution of Precipitation Is Fully Determined by Shallow Circulations
We investigate the processes determining the spatial distribution of precipitation, in particular those leading to its homogenization by soil moisture. We focus on the simulation with interactive soil moisture around day 60.
The self-aggregation of convection, before day 60, is due to a shallow circulation (Fig. 2A) that spins up in the boundary layer due to the distinct radiative heating profiles of the nonprecipitating and the precipitating region
The circulation maintains the convection aggregated in one band with minimal changes in direction (Fig. 3A). Around day 60, however, the circulation pattern drastically changes and begins to converge into the previously nonprecipitating region (Figs. 2B and 3A), called the desiccated region.



Following the altered circulation pattern, precipitation starts falling on the desiccated region of the domain around day 60 (Figs. 2 and 3) and the two circulation forcings work hand in hand. As the precipitation replenishes the soil moisture, the surface forcing disappears in less than 10 d (Figs. 2 B and C and 3C). The radiatively driven circulation nevertheless maintains the new precipitation distribution until dry enough areas form in other parts of the domain and steal the precipitation (Fig. 2 C and D). This results in a permanent back and forth between the radiatively driven circulation, which wants to organize the convection in one place, and the soil moisture-induced circulation, which wants to disorganize the convection

Summary
Letting radiation, convection, and soil moisture interact with each other in an initially homogeneous land–atmosphere system indicates that the fundamental role of soil moisture is to bring precipitation from the precipitating to the nonprecipitating region.

much more within paper…..which I assume is still dry.

9
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: December 08, 2018, 07:13:51 PM »
Some or perhaps most of this rapid decline in Monarch butterflies can be blamed directly on urban or human sprawl.  Roadways across the mid and south west USA are routinely cleared of vegetation along the sides or shoulders to improve visibility, this includes Milk Weed a primary source of food for Monarchs.  I could be wrong here but I think milk weed could be the only food source for Monarchs at some point in their life cycle. Milkweed is well...a weed, so we keep cutting it down.

https://monarchbutterflygarden.net/monarch-caterpillar-food-milkweed-cuttings/

bligh

10
Consequences / Re: General Drought Stuff
« on: December 07, 2018, 03:56:44 PM »
Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78

Abstract

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the “Monsoon Asia” region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870–76), a record-breaking El Niño (1877–78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations—one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SSTs—were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Niño in 1877–78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

." It was arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity and one of the worst calamities of any sort in at least the last 150 years, with a loss of life comparable to the World Wars and the influenza epidemic of 1918/19.

"The Global Famine was initiated by severe droughts in several regions that persisted for multiple seasons between 1875 and 1878. In Fig. 1, we identify the temporal evolution of these regional droughts. The drought started in India with a failure of the 1875 winter monsoon season, and dry conditions persisted through the summer of 1877. In East Asia, the drought started in spring 1876, and the lack of rainfall persisted through summer 1878. Subsequently, droughts developed in parts of South Africa, northern Africa, and northeastern Brazil in following seasons that lasted till at least 1878. Relatively shorter but severe droughts also occurred in western Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia between mid-1877 and 1878. Droughts in most of these regions are often associated with the occurrence of El Niño events (e.g., Kumar et al. 2006; Slingo and Annamalai 2000; Ropelewski and Halpert 1987; Wang et al. 2017; Xu et al. 2004). While previous studies (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Aceituno et al. 2009) have identified the presence of a strong El Niño during the Great Drought, the El Niño conditions only developed in 1877 and waned in 1878. However, the drought in key areas afflicted by famines—including India, northeastern Brazil, and China—started prior to the development of the El Niño or lasted longer than its duration.


 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0159.1

11
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: November 19, 2018, 03:59:04 PM »
I might imagine it's like this across much of New England.   The ground simply does not have the time between rain events to dry-out .. it's like walking on a wet sponge.

12
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: November 16, 2018, 01:12:05 AM »
We've drifted off topic here abit so I'll just quote this

Citations
• ... The nature of the relationship between humans and climate is a core issue in geographical research and the increased availability of paleoclimatic, paleoecological, and archae- ological data have resulted in the proliferation of studies on this complex relationship (deMenocal, 2001;Wu and Liu, 2004;An et al., 2005;Kuper and Kröpelin, 2006;Barton et al., 2007;Munoz et al., 2010;Maher et al., 2011;McMichael, 2012;Rosen and Rivera-Collazo, 2012;Dong et al., 2013;Xie et al., 2013;Foerster et al., 2015;Büntgen et al., 2016;Hughes et al., 2017). Climate change is often argued to be a primary force influencing human activities ( Jin and Liu, 2002;Zhang et al., 2008;Hill et al. 2009;Anderson et al., 2011;Ziegler et al., 2013). The Western Loess Plateau (WLP) lies to the west of the Liupan Mountains in North China (Fig. 1B). ...

From <https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Clovis-and-immediate-post-Clovis-assemblages-at-eleven-quarry-locations-in-the_tbl1_229344558>

And move along…..Thanks

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: November 15, 2018, 05:48:56 PM »
Thanks Vox....Fascinating stuff

14
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: November 13, 2018, 08:42:59 PM »
Overlooked Trends in Observed Global Annual Precipitation Reveal Underestimated Risks

Abstract....open access

Numerous human and environmental systems are sensitive to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, including agriculture, water supply, and ecosystems. Trends in observed precipitation form an important line of evidence to understand how changes may increase system vulnerabilities. Linear trends reported in US and global climate assessments reflect changes in mean annual precipitation. Mean trends may not reflect changes across other quantiles in the precipitation probability distribution, including the tails (very high and low precipitation levels), leading to systematic mischaracterization of climate risk. Here we reanalyze global annual precipitation using quantile regression to reveal overlooked trends. We find trends in the tails inconsistent with the mean in 44.4% of land area and 40.7% of rainfed agricultural regions. Previously undetected trends offer a more accurate view of the changing climate. This work enables reappraisals of risk aggregated over thresholds in human and environmental systems, enabling revaluation of threats and identification of appropriate adaptation strategies.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34993-5

bligh

15
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: November 13, 2018, 03:05:31 PM »
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the
Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave interacting
with an upper-level low.  Strong upper-level winds and interaction
with the islands of the Greater Antilles, while the system moves
generally westward, should inhibit tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

16
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:01:17 AM »
Agreed. ASLR's posts around Antarctica was the reason I started reading here in late 2013. I don't follow the political threads. All the best whatever you decide ASLR.



+1

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: November 12, 2018, 03:07:21 PM »
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of
the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this
morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few
days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

18
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: November 11, 2018, 06:37:54 PM »
Climate change pushing the world into hunger?

"Dr Jauhar Ali, a hybrid rice breeder from the International Rice Research Institute (Irri), said that the low-lying Mekong River Delta is being gradually inundated by seawater, which poisons crops.
"Even a few centimetres of seawater in rice fields is destructive because once a land is salinised you can't grow anything," said Dr Ali."

"In 2014, saltwater intrusion destroyed more than 6,000ha of rice fields, according to the Southern Irrigation Research Institute. And multiple sea dykes in Vietnam's lower Mekong region have collapsed as sea levels rise."

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/climate-change-pushing-the-world-into-hunger

bligh

19
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 10, 2018, 04:24:42 PM »
I hardly know what to say about such horror and tragedy.

20
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: November 09, 2018, 03:28:54 PM »
Modern slavery and the race to fish

Nature Communications
volume
 9, Article number: 4643 (2018)

Abstract

Marine fisheries are in crisis, requiring twice the fishing effort of the 1950s to catch the same quantity of fish, and with many fleets operating beyond economic or ecological sustainability. A possible consequence of diminishing returns in this race to fish is serious labor abuses, including modern slavery, which exploit vulnerable workers to reduce costs. Here, we use the Global Slavery Index (GSI), a national-level indicator, as a proxy for modern slavery and labor abuses in fisheries. GSI estimates and fisheries governance are correlated at the national level among the major fishing countries. Furthermore, countries having documented labor abuses at sea share key features, including higher levels of subsidized distant-water fishing and poor catch reporting. Further research into modern slavery in the fisheries sector is needed to better understand how the issue relates to overfishing and fisheries policy, as well as measures to reduce risk in these labor markets.

"The isolation of workers at sea makes the extent of labour issues in fisheries difficult to quantify. In recent years, however, high profile media investigations have identified a number of cases of extreme labour abuses in fisheries, some involving hundreds of fishing crew. Investigations of the Thai, Taiwanese and South Korean fishing industries identified cases of human trafficking, forced confinement, physical abuse and even murder26,27,28,29,30. These incidents have not been confined just to the high seas or the waters of weaker jurisdictions. Some of the cases involving South Korean vessels took place while under charter in New Zealand waters31,32,33. There have also been allegations of human trafficking and debt bondage of African and Asian crew on domestic vessels in British and Irish fisheries34,35,36 and trafficking and confinement among South East Asian fishers employed in US fisheries in Hawaii37. The US State Department lists 40 countries as source, destination or transit countries for human trafficking in fisheries38, and vessels exploiting fishing crew have been encountered in the waters of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Russia and South Africa, as well as New Zealand25,39,40,41. Labour rights abuses in fisheries appear widespread and serious, in many cases meeting the definition of modern slavery."


See also   http://www.seaaroundus.org/modern-slavery-promotes-overfishing/

21
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: November 09, 2018, 01:58:09 PM »
Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming


Abstract
The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high‐resolution self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.


Plain Language Summary

Climate models project significant drying for the Caribbean as a consequence of increased anthropogenic greenhouse‐gas concentrations. Between 2013 and 2016, virtually, the entire region experienced a Pan‐Caribbean drought, which was unprecedented since at least 1950. We find that human‐caused warming contributed to ~15–17% of drought severity by increasing evapotranspiration rates and accounted for ~7% of land area under drought across the Caribbean. Our results therefore suggest that anthropogenic warming has already increased drought risk in the Caribbean.

doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408  .. open access

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079408

bligh



22
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic images
« on: November 05, 2018, 04:12:50 PM »

23
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 04, 2018, 03:05:50 PM »
Temps in the low 70s last two days @ 40 deg N along the E coast with rain forecasted for the next 5 of 6 days....that a wow in November.
[/quote

a 'east coast of where' would be helpful ].. b.c.


Posted by: vox_mundi
« on: November 02, 2018, 01:36:26 PM »
Insert Quote

We may be neighbors bligh8. That's the same forecast here in Connecticut. 40 degrees N on the East coast? New York, Newark or Jersey shore

I'm @ 40.00.11 N, right on the Jersey Coast..(USA).
Friday before last the remanents of Willa passed just North of here bringing 50-60 MPH NE winds, causing coastal flooding confined to the back bays... mostly.


The newly renavated entrance bridge to this community (1 of 3) flooded badly, the 3.5 million dollar renavation did not change the elevation of the bridge.  I asked to county project manager about this before construction began, he replyed: Read the NJ Climate report. I did and... The most often used word in the report concerning coastal projects was "retreat".


Hi Vox_mundi...(wave).



24
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 01, 2018, 08:25:22 PM »
Temps in the low 70s last two days @ 40 deg N along the E coast with rain forecasted for the next 5 of 6 days....that a wow in November.

25
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 31, 2018, 02:35:12 PM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46029302


Venice under water as deadly storms hit Italy

"Italy has been battered by fierce winds and rain which have left 11 people dead in the west and north, while schools and tourist sites closed in several regions amid fears for people's safety.

" Winds of up to 180km/h (110 mph) were reported, and two tornadoes ripped through the centre of the coastal town of Terracina, killing one person and leaving 10 others injured.
In the canal city of Venice, rising floodwaters overwhelmed many of its famed squares and walkways, with officials saying as much as 75% of the city is now submerged."

Related event:
(The Rapallo Sea Wall was washed away last night)

https://www.gazzettadiparma.it/video/gallery/548533/scenario-apocalittico-a-rapallo-strage-di-yacht-berlusconi-compreso.html

Sea Wall Collapsing

http://www.ansa.it/liguria/notizie/2018/10/30/-maltempo-mareggiata-fa-strage-yacht-a-porto-rapallo-_91ffc13a-ee35-4207-9a0f-87b003c2a825.html


26
Consequences / Re: Water wars
« on: October 19, 2018, 04:43:16 PM »
Tri-State Water Wars (AL, GA, FL)

"Advocating for the Long-Term Health of Two Major River Basins
For decades, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida have been battling over the future allocation of water in two major river basins that cross their borders (the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint basins).  The dispute has involved several local, state and federal agencies, as well as numerous courts and mediators, and its outcome is one of the most important environmental issues facing the region today.
Each state has its own concerns about the proper allocation of water"

https://www.southernenvironment.org/cases-and-projects/tri-state-water-wars-al-ga-fl




27
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 05:22:41 PM »
The storm after the storm.....FEMA told contractors to lowball estimates.

Missed deadlines cost millions in potential disaster aid

From <http://nsjonline.com/article/2018/10/missed-deadlines-cost-millions-in-potential-disaster-aid/>



Government Flood Insurance Program Called into Question

From <https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/Investigation/story?id=1144113&page=1>

Senators call for FEMA hearings following 60 Minutes report

From <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senators-call-for-fema-hearings-following-60-minutes-report/>

28
Consequences / Re: Water wars
« on: October 09, 2018, 04:01:01 PM »
Yup....all that fresh water and still we have Flint.

29
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: October 06, 2018, 03:28:58 PM »
Re: "vertical carbon fiber straps epoxied to foundation walls in an effort to stabilize the walls. "

This might need a different thread, but i doubt epoxy/carbon fiber. I have stabilized failing concrete block wall in basements in clay, and it takes large steel members, lots of digging and most important fix the drainage because it is hydrostatic pressure as well as clay swell/shrink that kills you. Sometimes pile driving is involved.

My experience with epoxy/carbon strap is that it mebbe ok above grade where you can see failure, but below grade moisture degrades the epoxy , and believe it or not, things eat away at it. Then it fails invisibly. But perhaps they have better and more toxic epoxy.

sidd


Sidd...the carbon fiber straps were to be installed inside of the basement walls....but not by me.

This conversation belongs else ware…..but thanks.

bligh

30
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: October 06, 2018, 03:18:51 PM »
Re: "vertical carbon fiber straps epoxied to foundation walls in an effort to stabilize the walls. "

This might need a different thread, but i doubt epoxy/carbon fiber. I have stabilized failing concrete block wall in basements in clay, and it takes large steel members, lots of digging and most important fix the drainage because it is hydrostatic pressure as well as clay swell/shrink that kills you. Sometimes pile driving is involved.

My experience with epoxy/carbon strap is that it mebbe ok above grade where you can see failure, but below grade moisture degrades the epoxy , and believe it or not, things eat away at it. Then it fails invisibly. But perhaps they have better and more toxic epoxy.

sidd
Their installing these straps on basement interior walls (not mine).  I've installed 120ft of subsurface piping to carry water away from the house....so far, so good.  I meant to move this to 'Places becoming less livable"  hit the wrong button.  In Ocean Grove the 200 yr old homes have brick foundations using beach sand for mortar …..0pps.  They simply build new support walls using block inside the basement w/a false front.


bligh

31
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: October 06, 2018, 06:19:11 AM »
Older homes in this area NJ were built with porous cinder block, these changing rainfall patterns dry/very wet are contracting expanding the Marlboro clay substrate, changing the static pressure loads on  home foundations = Step cracking then horizontal cracking….a new industry has come alive….vertical carbon fiber straps epoxied to foundation walls in an effort to stabilize the walls.  It el work for a while…. maybe.

32
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: September 05, 2018, 06:24:38 PM »

When will this hellish heat wave finally end in New Jersey?


Been like this on/off all summer....when it's not raining cat's and dog's,  cat's and dog's doesn't really fit these days....more like elephants and rhinos.  The heat's been brutal, keeps folks indoors.


https://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/nj_weather_summer_heat_wave_how_long.html

33
The rest / Re: Poetry
« on: August 23, 2018, 11:30:11 AM »
Rearmament

These grand and fatal movements toward death: the grandeur of the mass
Makes pity a fool, the tearing pity
For the atoms of the mass, the persons, the victims, makes it seem monstrous
To admire the tragic beauty they build.
It is beautiful as a river flowing or a slowly gathering
Glacier on a high mountain rock-face,
Bound to plow down a forest, or as frost in November,
The gold and flaming death-dance for leaves,
Or a girl in the night of her spent maidenhood, bleeding and kissing.
I would burn my right hand in a slow fire
To change the future … I should do foolishly. The beauty of modern
Man is not in the persons but in the
Disastrous rhythm, the heavy and mobile masses, the dance of the
Dream-led masses down the dark mountain.

Robinson Jeffers, 1935

34
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:23:45 PM »
As the chief economist for freddie mac pointed out in 2016, the panic doesn't start when the hurricane/flooding hits. It starts when the first guy on the block sells at reduced price.

sidd


Freddie Mac (2016)

 "One challenge for housing economists is predicting the time path of house prices in areas likely to be impacted by climate change. Consider an expensive beachfront house that is highly likely to be submerged eventually, although "eventually" is difficult to pin down and may be a long way off. Will the value of the house decline gradually as the expected life of the house becomes shorter? Or, alternatively, will the value of the house—and all the houses around it—plunge the first time a lender refuses to make a mortgage on a nearby house or an insurer refuses to issue a homeowner's policy? Or will the trigger be one or two homeowners who decide to sell defensively?" 


Several large insurers will not sell home owners insurance in my neighborhood. Yet homes sell at market value and they sell quickly. I was astounded as the home directly next door sold at an inflated price without central air-conditioning.  Folks generally speaking, refuse to believe SLR will effect their ability to sell or the value of their homes.  What I see is a public that is not aware and does not care to be. As one person said at the Town Hall meeting concerning a grant to build a Sea Wall "I've lived here for 60 yrs, it's never flooded before and it never will.

bligh

35
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 17, 2018, 01:05:18 PM »
JH Christ, that's too much water!


Stay safe
Terry

Thanks Terry
Fair Winds
bligh

36
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 17, 2018, 04:37:17 AM »
N.J. weather update: Nearly 8 inches of rain pounds N.J., flooding roads, creating a waterspout

"As of early Monday afternoon, a whopping 7.83 inches of rain was reported in Brick, where township officials declared a state of emergency. Nearly 5.6 inches of rain was reported in Howell Township and almost 5 inches was registered in Wall Township.
Heavy flooding was reported along a three-block section of Spring Lake, and several flooded roads were closed in Neptune Township, emergency management officials noted on social media.
In Sea Girt, numerous roads were flooded and closed to traffic Monday morning, and some traffic signals were out, according to the weather service.

There are some video's posted within the link....The third video posted by the brick township police dept. is of a flooded age restricted community.  My mom use to live there & I know many folks that still live there, most have no reason to have flood insurance and frankly, although nice, is a poorer area to live.

I sat on my back porch watching this unfold and just about when I thought it could not possibly rain harder.....it did.

https://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/08/nj_weather_heavy_rain_flash_flooding_waterspout.html

Edit: Where I live in Monmouth County it rained 6 inches in about 4 hrs.

 "...6 inches" Which is about 2inches more than Stormy got.  Credit...hush money

37
Several nights past Frontier airlines was about to land a plane (older airbus) in Trenton NJ.  It was diverted to another airport without telling the parents of small children on the plane or so said the news story.  The cause of the plane being diverted was atmospheric turbulence associated with thunder storms.  Several days earlier I was on the same plane (older airbus) when they alerted the passengers while approaching  Trenton of some small turbulence ahead, the motion within plane
was quite violent, the lighting display outside was impressive……wow, there is a lot of energy in the atmosphere, not necessarily rain, just a lot of lighting and rolling thunder. We're seeing a lot of this along the coast….I imagine a good many folks are seeing this as well.

38
Here along the coast weather systems moving east across the country at times stall, in the past this would only perhaps bring a little more rain.  These days they stall and ocean air retrogrades over the coast. The result is dirty air, it stinks, not like low tide Ocean smell, just foul & dark grey in color. This has happened 3-4 times over the last 2 months.

Adding this to SLR & increasing violent storms the coast is not a good place to live.

I was just in Michigan for a spell,  the air was refreshing, fresh and crisp with the North West winds.

39
Is this what you do around here, look for new posts that may contain, from your uneducated point of view, an error in nomenclature?  How does that add to the conversation?
Houghton Michigan is a college town .. home to Michigan Tech University, I’ve a nephew who is a professor there.  I’ve been to Houghton many times, lived in Michigan
for decades.  Take your snip remarks somewhere else…understand

40
About that rain event in Michigan,  in a typical suburban area when city planners build roads they raise the road surface just a bit and dig culverts on both sides of the road for rainwater run-off,  as the water flowed downhill at the next intersection there was always an underground pipe to carry the water to the next block.
The idea was that exposed surface area would be enough to absorb the normal 2-3 inches of rain over the length of the event.  Looking at the posted picture of the destroyed road one an almost envision what happened.  Michigan has had this approach for 60 yrs that I know of.

41
Science / Re: Precipitation trends
« on: June 16, 2018, 09:02:54 PM »
It’s a hard rain that’s fallen…
Note in the first graph there’s no upper limit,  just grater than 75%
Half or more of the Ocean beaches are under caution for high level of bacteria.
The run off has turned the Ocean brown for what appears to be several miles to seaward.


42
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: March 03, 2018, 05:14:20 PM »
AVISO…Jason 3, 2016-2018, seasonal single not removed....5.65mm


43
Consequences / Ecological Consequences of Freshwater Acidification
« on: January 20, 2018, 04:44:26 PM »
Ecological Consequences of Freshwater Acidification

Rising pCO2 in Freshwater Ecosystems Has the Potential to Negatively Affect Predator-Induced Defenses in Daphnia



Highlights
·   •
35-year monitoring data showed steady pCO2 increase and pH decrease in four reservoirs
·   •
Freshwater acidification affects inducible defenses in the keystone speciesDaphnia
·   •
pCO2 hampers neuronal kairomone transmission, preventing full defense expression
·   •
Increased pCO2, rather than reduced pH, impairs predator perception in Daphnia

“pCO2-dependent freshwater acidification has been found to impair physiology of larval development in pink salmon with CO2 dose-dependent reductions in growth, yolk-to-tissue conversion, and maximal O2-uptake capacity. Moreover, changes of behavioral responses showing significant alterations in olfactory abilities with mal-adaptive anti-predator strategies and increased anxiety were observed [12, 27, 28,29]. In this context, field experiments have shown that juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salamo salar) experiences greater predation rates [30]. Also, invertebrate taxa have recently been found to be susceptible to elevated pCO2, which affected valve movement in three North American freshwater mussels [31].”


http://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(17)31655-X

44
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: November 27, 2017, 05:54:18 PM »
At about 42 min where he’s talking about things getting warmer & the collapse of the Thwaits and the resulting SLR: “And all this could happen in about 50 yrs, + or – 50 yrs.”

Now, taken out of context like I did, it doesn’t really change the meaning when one considers the enormity of what’s being discussed?

Some months back I read the NJ State report on Climate and SLR, within the document the most used word in association with SLR was “retreat”.  Which to me makes sense.. but, this document wasn’t the kind of thing that was being mailed out or being dropped on everyone’s door step.

In a conversation with my Grand Daughter whom is a freshman @ JMU taking Political Science, she asked me “do you know that the IPCC used the wrong input thingies (computer parameters) and most of their models are understated? Yes I replied & wondered; how does this work with the Chinese Hoax theory?
 
bligh

45
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 21, 2017, 03:12:30 PM »
Y e a ….Trump hates CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/02/politics/trump-wrestling-tweet/index.html

And Verizon has had political aspirations since Ivan the terrible…this guy wanted to be president
or so I've been told.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Seidenberg

bligh

46
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: November 20, 2017, 02:30:39 PM »
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074904/abstract

A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18†

Abstract

Historical observations show that one in two La Niña events last for two consecutive years. Despite their outsized impacts on drought, these 2-year La Niña are not predicted on a routine basis. Here, we assess the predictability of 2-year La Niña using retrospective forecasts performed with a climate model that simulates realistic multi-year events, as well as with an empirical model based on observed predictors. The skill of the retrospective forecasts allows us to make predictions for the upcoming 2017-2018 boreal winter starting from conditions in November 2015. These two-year forecasts indicate that the return of La Niña is more likely than not, with a 60% probability based on the climate model and an 80% probability based on the empirical model; the likelihood of El Niño is less than 8% in both cases. These results demonstrate the feasibility of predictions of the duration of La Niña.

Of course the paper is paywalled, however in the associated “See Also” links they express
"Despite being weaker in the second year, La Niña appears to have a greater impact."

“The first study, led by Okumura, showed that La Niña's impact on atmospheric circulation and southern U.S. drought becomes stronger in the second year. This is despite a weakening of La Niña's cooling over the tropical Pacific relative to the first year.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171116114206.htm



47
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 20, 2017, 05:01:06 AM »
I meant to say: your writing .... beautiful, even poetic at times. 
Fair Winds
Bligh

48
Consequences / Re: Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100
« on: November 19, 2017, 03:23:31 PM »
Mr. sidd.....so sorry about not including the reference link.  Thanks for bringing that to my attention.

Fair Winds
bligh

49
Consequences / Re: Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100
« on: November 19, 2017, 04:20:16 AM »
Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet

·   Alexander M. R. Bakker,
·   Tony E. Wong,
·   Kelsey L. Ruckert &
·   Klaus Keller

Abstract:

There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices. Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.

Extract:

We presented a set of sea-level projections designed to represent important deep uncertainties and to inform robust decision-making frameworks. Our simple model framework includes semi-empirical models of the climate and sea-level contributions from thermal expansion, the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland ice sheet, and glaciers and small ice caps. Its relative simplicity is chosen to result in a transparent model structure and to enable a data-model fusion. Our calibration is designed to avoid over constraining the projections. We hence only utilize observational data accompanied with clear uncertainty estimates, and aim for relatively non-informative prior distributions. We communicate divergent expert assessments and large structural uncertainties as deep uncertainties surrounding the projections.

bligh

50
Within the following link (open access) is discussed evidence of
Iceberg transport, most likely sourced from the Antarctic Peninsula.
And that the East Falklands/Malvinas Current was still in operation during last glacial cycle.   The evidence of ice-berg scours and pits along the western side of the Falkland Islands would also result in further cooling from fresh, meltwater perturbations, enhancing the development of a potential ice-bridge along the Argentinean coast.

Abstract
Glaciation in the Southern Hemisphere is limited by the availability of land from which to seed ice sheets. The extents of the Antarctic, Patagonian, and New Zealand Ice Sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are relatively well known, although the rates and styles of their retreat after the LGM are poorly constrained, particularly in Antarctica. Offshore records of glaciation are relatively sparse in the Southern Hemisphere despite the potential ocean-climate insights that can be gained from records of glaciation that are preserved offshore. In this study, we document the occurrence of iceberg scours and accompanying pits within the North Falkland Basin (c. 50° S) and discuss their origin. The cross-sectional shapes of scours are u- to v-shaped and occur in present-day water depths of 280 to 460 m. Individual scours are up to 38 km long, 1 km wide, and up to ~ 10 m deep. The scours are observed as erosional linear to curvilinear depressions, showing only one point of contact between the iceberg and seafloor, often with raised berms, composed of excavated material, identified either side of the main depression. Undulating width of scours is interpreted as an effect of rotation of the iceberg keel during scour excavation. The elongate morphology of the scours differentiates them from asymmetrical pits, interpreted to represent iceberg impact pits, and symmetrical pockmarks, interpreted to form due to fluid expulsion. In cross-section the differentiation is highly interpretative, but the 3D bathymetric expression is unequivocal. The sinusoidal character of the scours suggests the interaction between local tidal currents and the East Falkland/Malvinas Currents in the North Falkland Basin at the time of formation. Offshore and onshore landscape analysis is used to determine potential sources of icebergs and suggests that they were most likely sourced from the Antarctic Peninsula. These results inform our understanding of Southern Hemisphere ocean-climate interactions during the last glacial cycle and suggest that the East Falklands/Malvinas Current, a key current in the Southern Hemisphere bringing cold, low-salinity Antarctic-derived waters into the South Atlantic, was in operation during the last glacial cycle. The accumulation of icebergs west of the Falkland Islands would also result in further cooling from fresh, meltwater perturbations, enhancing the development of a potential ice-bridge along the Argentinian coast.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025322716302997

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