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Topics - sark

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Opening this new thread in response to long range weather forecasting discussions in the main melt season thread.  From pages 14-15..  Anything goes.

I would propose a 'Long Term Weather Forcast Thread'.

There are obviously people not interested in this kind of content. By having it in a separate thread they could easily avoid it. And the ones interested wouldn't feel restricted and could post freely.

and I'll open with my "Autosquint" 500mb anomaly 21 day comp mean, with one of today's GFS runs tacked on to the end

This could use a synopsis of the SSW style final warming of 2019, with the ensuing coupled barotropic polar atmosphere that has beaten into the high north.  Analogues, models, papers

I feel like it'll calm down once the snow melts, but 2019 is a continuation of a really disappointing trend.  I spent 3 days curled in a ball last week.  I'm not a scientist and I don't play one so I can say this: The polar cell is failing.  It has been for years.  The trend is not your friend, but it's still a trend... and the emerging trend has to be indicative of the drastic, faster-than-expected breakdown of the polar cell.

What the hell is even happening?

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Consequences / Breakdown of the Polar Cell
« on: March 25, 2019, 01:46:24 AM »
Anybody have any ideas?  I've been looking for a good measure of the cold spinning around 2 cold poles, one over the Canadian Archipelago and one spread out across Siberia.  What's a good way to capture this empirically?

I'm not sure I understand what's being shown by wind vector anomalies in the 850-200mb range.  It does locate along the date line / GMT axis.

Specifically what i'm interested in is the tendency of the ridging from the Pacific and Atlantic  to reach the pole and isolate the two cold pools into two counterclockwise rotating patterns.  Was this dual counterclockwise pattern predicted?  Has it been studied?  I dare ask, is it new?  Is it a function of weather oscillations or purely the polar cell breaking apart in front of our eyes?

Sorry about the size of the gifs.  I'm on LTE myself.

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Consequences / Hurricane Season 2019
« on: February 17, 2019, 09:58:08 PM »
North of the ITCZ, February 18th, 2019.  250 miles from Micronesia, Invest 92W is organizing and has been upgraded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to Medium confidence of development.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

GFS has been showing this system growing to Cat 4-5 and then blowing north as an extratropical cyclone, right up the Bering Strait and into the Arctic.

We watched the last hurricane of the season, Oscar, turned out to sea in the Atlantic and then straight into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone.  Oscar entered the Arctic around November 1, and within days the stratospheric polar vortex began to ping pong around, a displacement which culminated in the polar vortex split and wild winter weather we are still experiencing.

It's a similar set up.  A calm, organized polar vortex at the north pole.  Incoming tropical storm.

Is it too much to anticipate, two major polar vortex disruptions in one winter?

Standard disclaimers:  GFS long range, ECMWF forecasts it much weaker, although it strengthened in the last run.

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Science / 21st-century modeled permafrost emissions doubled by lakes
« on: August 25, 2018, 02:36:33 AM »
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05738-9

"methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century"

sorry I had to butcher the title in order to get something that fit

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I am looking for help from this invaluable forum which I have read for years.

My lifestyle has a carbon footprint of about 3 tonnes of CO2 per annum.  I've been living this way for most of the past 6 years.  I am interested in documenting a lifestyle that is "carbon neutral" today, using off the shelf equipment, traveling and living here in the USA.

I need to prove some math.

My question is: what amount of annual CO2 emissions from human activities would be possible without raising global PPM?

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Science / Wattage from burning a ton of coal
« on: May 22, 2017, 03:50:14 AM »
the math on this calculation is just beyond me but the question burns in my mind.   burning a ton of coal can produce 2000-2500 kWh of electricity.  same burn produces 2.86 tons of co2... what is the wattage of greenhouse effect for that quantity of atmospheric co2 in 25 years, 100 years, etc?

even an approximate figure would salve my burning question...

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